The name’s Arocho. Yam Yam Arocho. I’ll have a bottle of well water. Boiled, not fresh. Brain parasites, you know.
Honestly, the idea of Yam Yam as James Bond is oddly hilarious to me. Not sure why, but it is. Best guess is how it would match on as a parody. Like, who would be the “Bond Girl”, or I guess, “Bond Boy” in this case? Josh, maybe? He’s an Act One one, at least. But now I’m getting way off track, and avoiding the episode proper.
As to that episode proper, here we learn that there is such a thing as being TOO nice about being blindsided. Jaime, energetic as ever, is quick to congratulate Danny and the rest of Soka on a successful idol play. All well and good, but she goes on and on about how amazing it is. She’s making it out like it’s this big move that’s never been done before, when cancelling votes with an idol is literally a move as old as “Survivor Fiji”. Hell, even if you want to say she was talking about the number of votes cancelled, she’s still beat out by at least Kelley Wentworth’s idol play on “Survivor Cambodia”. More recent than Fiji, obviously, but still… 8 years ago… Man, I suddenly feel old.
For his part, Danny is more pleased than I would be if I was him about how things went down. Sure, everything all went according to plan, which as Danny correctly notes is a rarity on “Survivor”, but you still burned an idol when it was arguably not necessary (yes, Frannie received the majority of the votes, but they could also have engaged in a split vote to achieve the same effect. Slightly riskier, perhaps, but possible). Still, a blindside well-executed whatever else happened, and Danny can be proud of that.
Lauren and Kane both do better jobs handling the blindside. Kane is generally pleasant, but publicly doesn’t say much. Lauren is vocal, but limits it more to what she and the rest of Ratu could have done better, rather than how she’s feeling. Lauren’s conclusion is that they should have split the votes, which I’m not so sure about. Splitting the votes only works if Tika is with you, and while they did largely vote with you, basic math says that at least one Tika member must have voted for Brandon. As such, you have to assume that Tika was at least partially in on the plan to blindside Brandon, and thus not trustworthy with a split vote.
But no, the old Ratu is convinced that Tika is with them, for some reason. This of course pleases the old Tika, who admit they’re now firmly in the driver’s seat. Yam Yam even gives me good title fodder by comparing himself to James Bond, whom he misnames as “Double-Oh Cero” (000 to the non-Spanish speakers among us). Time will tell how well they can capitalize on this.
With his game face now on, Kane notes that an idol being played means there’s likely a new one hidden somewhere. Thus, everyone starts setting off to hunt. Danny is the most blatant of all, only making token “Getting firewood” excuses. Everyone sees him doing this, and it makes him a target, so Danny had better hope he’s the one to find an idol. Danny is confident in himself, however, noting that he’s working harder than anyone in this hunt. Naturally, such a bold statement can only lead to an ironic fate, and we almost immediately cut to Heidi finding the idol. Good for her.
Our next segment is something of a rarity for the new era of “Survivor”: A scene of pure camp life. Yep, no advantages, no challenges, and practically no strategy talk. Everyone is gathered around the flag they’re painting, and I have to say, while the name “Va Va” for the merge tribe is ok at best, that flag is killer! The shield look fits with the more medieval theme of the season, and the things that look like runes down at the bottom are a nice accent. Yam Yam then gets the tribe onto a round of “Eye Spy”, teaching us the Spanish name for it the meantime. Yam Yam also shows us how he is too pure for this sinful Earth. When Frannie spies something beginning with “F”, he first guesses “Frannie”, which is just innocent, and then “Family”, which is really sweet regarding people he’s known for at most 17 days at this point. For the record, the correct answer was “Firewood”, as Lauren figures out.
We then get Carolyn giving everyone her backstory regarding addiction, celebrating 13 years sober out on the island. Speaking as someone who has worked, and still does sometimes work, with drug-addicted populations, that is damn impressive, Carolyn! You rock, assuming you’re reading this, which I admittedly doubt. Everyone feels closer to Carolyn as a result, and in the one bit of strategy talk, Carolyn articulates how she’s moved from someone whom no one thought they could work with to someone whom no one suspects strategically. A really good, accurate assessment, and all with a well-done backstory that felt like a natural progression in the show, rather than forced in for the sake of “feels”. Honestly a well-done scene that both brings us closer to the characters, and gives us insight into Carolyn’s game and strategy. Just a highlight of the episode. I have no notes.
Ok, that’s not exactly true. I do have one note. Carolyn, why are you climbing a giant rock for no reason? Have you learned nothing from Matthew’s example earlier this season? You too, Yam Yam, don’t think I didn’t see you on that rock as well!
But what of our third Tika member, Carson? Yeah, he’s still not doing so hot. He admits his nausea has gotten better, but he’s just plain feeling out of energy. One episode of this sort of talk I could dismiss, but with two, I’m getting concerned. True, he does seem to get better after a substantial meal, but this is now two episodes in a row where Carson’s health has been the focus; rarely a good sign. We did hear before the season that there would be two medical evacuations, and it could be argued that Bruce and Matthew fit the bill. Matthew technically quit, however (for justifiable reasons, but still a quit rather than a medevac), leaving us with room for one more potential medical evacuation. Carson seems cool, so I hope that isn’t the case, but needs to be brought up as a possibility.
How is Carson going to get access to the aforementioned food? Why, by negotiation, of course! We get the reading of Tree Mail, which at first seems unusual at this point in the show’s history, until you realize that the note basically says “There’s a rice negotiation today; better prepare!” All parties talk it over, with Carson volunteering to sit out due to, you know, illness. There’s some talk about wanting to split sit-outs relatively evenly between the tribes (it’s stated in the note that four people need to give up a shot at immunity, which does not evenly divide into three tribes), but really, the planning is notable more for how it breaks down. Some, like Frannie, are reluctant to go along with sit-out plans due to not trusting the other tribes. Fair enough. Frannie did technically receive the majority of the votes last episode, so she has a reason to be mistrustful. Moreover, it leads to a dynamic we’ve not seen before in these negotiations, which makes it more fun to watch than usual.
Danny, however, has his own reasons for why negotiations break down. He feels that sitting out for food, since everyone came out here to play. A sentiment I myself have expressed and agreed with… WHEN YOU WERE SITTING OUT FOR A MEAL JUST FOR YOURSELF! If it’s a “Gorge yourself on burgers or whatever while watching everyone else play”, I 100% agree with Danny. You look like a jerk for eating on your own, and you have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to do these challenges. What do you gain? Feeling full for a few hours. Suck it up and do the challenge. But the rice negotiation is a different animal. You’re sitting out for tribe gain, which could be done strategically to curry favor, and you’re getting no more benefit from doing so than anyone else. It’s not a matter of “You came here to play”, it’s a matter of “Doing what’s best for your game”, and in this particular context, sitting out might actually be the best thing for your game.
All this time spent on the buildup made me think Jeff was going to pull some sort of shenanigans at the auction, but it’s actually more to set up how reluctant everyone was to sit out. With the rain, Heidi asks if anyone has changed their mind from the plan of not doing so earlier. Lauren is the first volunteer, and while I’m not surprised she sat out overall, I AM surprised she sat out that quickly. Don’t get me wrong, given where Lauren thinks she is in the game, and her personality, it makes sense that she would sit out. However, given how the votes ended up last Tribal Council, and given that she was not targeted partly due to having immunity, I would have thought she’d wait for others to jump first. Carson joins right in, but everyone else needs some promises. Most everyone there guarantees the sit-outs safety, Danny even saying “Scout’s Honor”. These guarantees are, of course, about as genuine as the ones Jason Siska got on “Survivor Micronesia”, but they’re enough to get Kane to jump. Frannie tries to convince Jaime she’s safe, which initially works, though Jaime backs out of backing out at the last minute. Heidi ultimately steps in, meaning that for all that craziness, things ultimately went the way they were planned. Still fun to watch the process, though.
Our challenge is, of course, a reused endurance challenge, specifically holding a ball on a post with a rolling pin while standing on a block of wood. That said, for all that this is old hat (and looks kind of goofy, if I may be honest), I will give them credit that they upped the challenge difficulty in a couple of ways. For one thing, they made the block you stand on smaller, as well as enacted a rule that you had to stand one foot on top of the other. The other is that, as Probst notes, it’s raining, making the ball slick and harder to support. So yeah, if we’re going to redo this challenge, better to make it harder. Even if some of the difficulty was not something the show could have planned for.
After a close battle, Frannie wins her second immunity. Now all she has to do is never win immunity again, and my title for this blog will remain true.
Unsurprisingly, most of our post-challenge strategizing falls along the Soka vs. Ratu battle lines. Ratu wants to split the vote between Heidi and Danny, with Danny being the preferred target. Makes sense. Probably the two most strategically competent players on that side, plus the person who’s won the most individual immunities and the guy who on paper is a challenge threat. Soka, meanwhile, is all in on getting out Kane, which I have to say is more strategically questionable. Ok, not going for Jaime I get. She’s not that great a player, threat of an idol, has been ok working with you in the past; there’s reasons to let Jaime be for the time being. But Kane? Guy has barely got his legs under him all season (as he himself admits, he’s never successfully voted anyone off), and has no advantages or idols to his name. Lauren you know has an extra vote, has proven to be tough in challenges, and is strategically at least competent, if not above-average. As such, she seems the much greater threat in this scenario.
Before we discuss Tika’s position in the middle of all this, there’s a couple of shenanigans we need to discuss. One is Ratu’s movement of idols and advantages. To plan for a possible Knowledge is Power shake-up (now I think on it, it IS kind of weird the show didn’t try putting it in again after trying twice on “Survivor 43”; not that I’m complaining), they switch everything around, Jaime holding Lauren’s banked vote, and Kane holding what he thinks is an idol, but is actually Jaime’s fake one. Oh, poor Kane. Even when he thinks he has some power, the chyron has to mock him by choosing that moment in the confessional to add “One Fake Idol” to it. For all that I mock, this is honestly decent strategic planning, and I can’t fault them for it.
The other thing of note is a plan floated by Frannie to potentially flip the vote, working with Ratu to get out Yam Yam. She correctly notes that Tika is by far the tightest three, with strategically the most power, and thus weakening them is something to consider. I’d say Carson or Carolyn make more sense to target, but given that Carson’s sick and Carolyn has done a good job obfuscating how smart she is, I can’t fault Frannie too much for this. Who I CAN fault is Danny, who dismisses the idea out of hand, despite the fact that everything Frannie has said is factually correct. Danny is dead-set against ever working with Ratu, saying that doing so is like being “Under the Wing of a Dragon”, giving us an episode title I’m still having a hard time believing did not come from Kane.
This is important to bring up first since it leads into my thoughts about the debate Tika has about which side to choose. Yam Yam is all for sticking with Soka, wanting Kane gone for writing his name down. Carolyn and Carson, however, peg Danny as the bigger threat, and thus want him gone instead. Now, in terms of threat level, I would say Carolyn and Carson have the more accurate view, and thus I was inclined to side with them in this debate when it first came up. Thinking more about it, however, I’m actually inclined to side with Yam Yam, and it’s 100% due to seeing that conversation Frannie had about flipping on Tika. This is the first, and so far only, time someone has seriously talked about targeting that particular tribe (Yam Yam being the default decoy notwithstanding), and is the one major threat to their position of power. You get rid of Danny, and it’s very possible Frannie and Heidi rally with Ratu to start targeting, say, Carolyn or Carson. Get rid of Kane, however, and I don’t think Ratu does the same thing, with how laser-focussed they are on Soka. Thus, you remain the swing vote, and keep your power. Of course we have no idea of Tika KNOWS Frannie has proposed this plan, and as I say, Danny is threatening for a number of reasons, so it’s hardly a bad move to get him out tonight. Getting out Kane just seems slightly more optimal.
Our Tribal Council starts out pretty promising. A forced metaphor here or there, but some good banter and funny moments. As I called to my friends when I was watching the episode, Danny reveals he was never a scout, hence his earlier “Scout’s Honor” meant nothing. I will also give props once again to the editors. Yam Yam talks about wanting subtitles, and sure enough, the editors give him some. There’s even good mystery throughout, as I can see arguments for either Kane or Danny going. Where things go downhill is when Probst inserts himself too much into the conversation. Because humor is boring, I guess, he insists that this cast is full of people ready to have a “Live Tribal” every episode. Dutifully, our players get up and start whispering to one another. Decently fun chaos, but I preferred what we had before.
Chaotic also is a good descriptor for the vote. No idols played, despite Heidi explicitly bringing hers and receiving votes, but Jaime does burn Lauren’s extra vote. All to no avail, however, as Kane ends up being the victim. I’m not overly sorry to see him go. I would probably get along well with him in real life, and I did enjoy his D&D references, but ultimately, just not that great a player, and so I’ll take the more competent and energetic player staying in the game any day. I do feel bad for Kane, since he never got his feet under him, but sometimes that’s just how “Survivor” is.
That said, so much for the fake idol. Glad we spent so much time on THAT Chekov’s gun, only to never fire it.
This season continues the upward trajectory it’s been on since roughly the merge. While it still hasn’t reached the highs of the early season, the moments to just let the characters “be” were a breath of fresh air, we had good strategy to chew on, and even a bit of chaos to keep things interesting. Minor nitpicks aside, I’m quite happy. Let’s hope the trajectory continues.
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 