Ah, the sweet, sweet feeling of NOT needing to wait over a year to talk about new “Survivor” content. Sure, the bios are still noticeably lacking in information, but hey, at least we actually GET the tribe divisions pre-season this time. Already a leg up on the previous season, and for once that’s actually a compliment, and not meant as a dig at a bad season.
Ladies, gentlemen, non-binary individuals, it is my esteemed pleasure to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to! With the announcement of a new cast a month out from the show’s premiere, that mean’s it’s naturally time for me to make snap judgments about each of them that will inevitably be wrong, and then be mercilessly mocked for my ignorance later! I’m sure you’ve all got your mocking sticks ready, so let’s waste no more time, and jump right into this cast assessment!
Jonathan Young (29, Beach Service Company Owner, Gulf Shores, AL, Taku Tribe): A fun fact about Jonathan is that he was a contest on the Discovery Kids show “Endurance”, a fact that he slyly references by using “Endurance”, with the capital “E” to describe himself. Nice bit of subtlety there, Jonathan. For those who don’t know, “Endurance” was kind of like “Survivor”, but for kids. A group gets put in some wilderness (usually in the US for travel purposes), then compete against each other in a series of challenges, both physical and interpersonal, to become the last pair remaining and win the grand prize. Will this help him on “Survivor”? Eh, probably not much. There’s worse training you can do, but “Endurance” was effectively catered cabin camping, as compared to the more brutal nature of “Survivor”, and the interpersonal politics only took one so far when elimination came down to effectively a game of “Rock, Paper, Scissors”. Honestly, I think the thing that’s most helpful about Jonathan’s time on “Endurance” is the fact that his season was one of the few that went international. They filmed in Fiji; in fact on the same island “Survivor” uses today. Far-fetched as it may be, I could see Jonathan’s familiarity with the land being helpful in terms of finding idols and advantages in the game. Tempting as it might be to look at Jonathan’s gameplay on “Endurance” for clues to how he’ll do here, the fact is that was 15 years ago, and a person changes a lot in that time. As to how Jonathan is now? He’s basically the most quintessential “Florida Man” I’ve ever seen, which is impressive for someone who doesn’t actually live in Florida. The dude is all about athleticism and a good time, but not much else. He compares himself to Ozzy, which seems apt given his strengths and weaknesses. It speaks poorly of his chances of winning, but bear in mind the only time Ozzy went out pre-merge was because he ASKED to as a strategy. As such, I’d put Jonathan in the same category: Coasts along on his strength early on, only to be picked off as a threat in the early-to-mid merge.
Marya Sherron (47, Stay-At-Home Mom, Noblesville, IN, Taku Tribe): Normally I’d be down on the chances of the “Mom” archetype that Marya seems to play into, but as we saw with Tiffany and Heather last season, that can work to one’s advantage. That said, there are some red flags I’m noticing for Marya. The pet peeves rear their ugly head, as while one is relatively harmless to her chances (people who don’t cover their sneezes, which unless Bobby Jon Drinkard from “Survivor Palau” is secretly coming back this season, she probably doesn’t need to worry too much), but “meanness” is a bit harder to stomach. Granted, it’s not as bad as one’s pet peeve being, say, “Liars”, but it’s not a particularly good sign in my book either. She also talks about wanting to be a leader, and to play like Angelina (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) and Tony (“Survivor Cagayan”), which at best seems like a weird, slightly chaotic combination in my book. Unfortunately, the real nail in the coffin for Marya is the tribe she’s on. It’s probably the strongest of the three challenge-wise, which means she won’t be vulnerable for a few tribal councils most likely, but that’s partly because this tribe skews younger, making her stand out, which is particularly bad in the early days of “Survivor”. They also skew fairly quirky, which again, not a word I would use to describe Marya. She may not be the first target on their minds, unless she costs them a challenge, but I’d still expect Marya to be a pre-merge boot, though later rather than earlier within that category.
Romeo Escobar (37, Pageant Coach, Norwalk, CA, Ika Tribe): You know, sometimes it’s really hard to pick a first boot out of a cast. Perhaps because everyone seems relatively even in terms of tribe challenge ability, perhaps because everyone presents themselves really well, perhaps because people outright lie in their bio. Then sometimes you get a Semhar Tadesse (“Survivor South Pacific”) whose very presence screams “First Boot”. Unfortunately for Romeo, he falls into the latter category for me. Right off the bat, he strikes me as the type who will bring a lot of drama. Great for television, bad for sticking around, especially when tribes are this small. When even he describes himself as “impatient”, you know you’ve got an issue. Plus, while this is more of a personal annoyance, he’s about the only person on this cast who says “No player has been like me before.” Now, as a pageant coach, Romeo must be used to dealing with big personalities, so if he had the opportunity to stick around a few days, and let others start drama of their own, I could see him having a decent run. Unfortunately, he’s on what looks set to be the “disaster tribe” of this season, and by sticking out so much, he’s just doomed to an early exit should his tribe attend Tribal Council early, which they likely will. Please prove me wrong man, but my gut says you’re doomed.
Tori Meehan (25, Therapist, Rogers, AR, Ika Tribe): Hoo boy, here we go. We need to talk about Tori. Let’s go through her bio shall we? Her pet peeves are “When people lack self-awareness, are emotionally reactive, immature, or petty.” She brags about how easy it was to get through college debt-free. She’s ultra-religious, literally listing Jesus as her hero, and referencing the importance of her faith over and over. She DARES to compare herself to Kim Spradlin, arguably the greatest player of the game of all time. She goes and has a degree similar to my own, thereby putting her in far too close proximity to myself for my liking. And then, if what I’ve seen about her social media is to be believed, she’s a vaccine denier (though I’ll admit I don’t have firsthand information on this one). All this combines to make Tori very likely to win the game. That game of course being “Which Contestant Can Make Matt Despise Them The Quickest?” The game of “Survivor”? Not so much. If she annoys me, chances are she’s going to annoy at least SOME other people out there, who are likely to end up on her tribe at some point. And while I’m TRYING to not see overt religion as a red flag (as Shan proved last season, one can still play a competent game with overt religion as well), this feels too excessive even for me. Her pet peeves, as should be obvious, do her no favors either. So, with all these marks against her, why do I not say she’ll be the first boot over Romeo, whom I might actually ENJOY watching, given that she’s also on the likely “disaster tribe”? Well… Much as I might WANT Tori to be sent packing super early, and much as I will enjoy the moment when it inevitably comes, we have a season preview to go off of, and that season preview gave us the bad news that Tori finds some advantage, presumably an idol based on her reading about the phrases to activate said idol. For all my negative talk about Tori, she doesn’t seem to be an idiot, and so I think can be trusted to strategically play her idol to her advantage. I suspect she leverages it with her tribe to get herself father in the game than her personality might otherwise indicate. That said, she’s doomed at the merge, idol or no idol. The problem is that with the larger merges these days, the merge bootee tends to be the person who can most easily bring the group to a consensus. and no one screams “Will annoy most people.” on this cast more than Tori. As such, expect her to be gone right at the merge. And oh, what a happy, happy merge it will be.
Jackson Fox (48, Healthcare Worker, Houston, TX, Taku Tribe): Ah, this is the palate cleanser I needed. While I have my favorites from spoiled cast previews, there’s a few that, when I read about them, surprise me pleasantly. Jackson is that one this time, such that I nearly made him my pick to win it all. Dude reminds me of a modern-day Lex Van Den Berghe (“Survivor Africa”) in that while first impression might lead to him seeming kind of freaky, he’s a real softie underneath, with good emotional awareness. His comparison to Elaine from “Island of the Idols” seems both apt and in his favor in this case. Sadly, there’s a couple of bits that stop me short of calling him my winner pick. He’s the other “older person” on a younger-skewing tribe, though given his own quirks, I think this is less an issue for him than for Marya a few bios back. More concerning is his pet peeve of “people who don’t get to the point” since “Survivor” LOVES to cast long-winded talkers. Still, I’ve seen people with more concerning pet peeves do well, and I certainly don’t see Jackson being much vulnerable until the merge, as he seems to be on the tribe least likely to lose. I’d say he probably leaves in the late merge for being too much of a threat, and if he can imitate Lex’s game without all the gut problems (both in terms of read and in terms of parasites), I’d say he has a decent shot to win it all. Plus, the dude likes dogs. How can you not root at least a little for someone who likes dogs?
Chanelle Howell (29, Executive Recruiter, New York, NY, Vati Tribe): Our first look at the “middle of the road” tribe. More likely to win a challenge than Ika, less so than Taku. Much like her tribe, Chanelle is kind of middle of the road for me. Her bio is very guarded, without much to recommend her one way or the other. There are a couple of red flags; notably she’s another one who dares to set a high bar by comparing herself to Kim Spradlin, and given how much she talks about analysis and numbers, I worry she may focus too much on the strategic side of the game, and not enough on the interpersonal one. Even so, barring that she costs Vati a challenge (which I don’t see happening, but then I didn’t see Sara last season doing so either), there’s little reason to get rid of Chanelle, as she’s fairly inoffensive. I’d expect her to be a mid-merge boot, possibly a decoy to flush an idol. Either way, will be a decent player, around for a decent amount of time.
Omar Zaheer (31, Exotic Animal Veterinarian, Whitby, Ontario, Canada, Taku Tribe): Ah, now HERE we’re getting to the good stuff. Omar stood out to me for name alone, and the more I read his bio, the more I fell in love, and not just because he listed “Settlers of Catan” as a hobby. The dude just exudes “fun” and “humor” from every orifice, and I am here for every minute of it. Now, on paper, Omar’s got some issues. While only one of his pet peeves (rudeness) is likely to come up frequently in the game (I don’t see many vet bills coming on the island, and I don’t think pigeons are indigenous to Fiji), the sheer number of them is concerning. Plus, he makes the opposite mistake when comparing himself to past players, trying to hybridize too many than to few (including, yet again, Kim Spradlin). However, one must not only consider the charm that comes through a mere photo of the guy, but also his instance on the motto of “They must learn to adapt, or they’ll be voted out of the tribe.” The very core of the game, yet one not overtly emphasized by most players these days. Very refreshing to see, and speaks well of his chances, in my opinion. So, is he my winner pick? Yeah… No… While I do expect him to do well, probably making the finale, he’s out at five or four for certain. No one wants to let charm like that get to the end, and while decent at challenges, I don’t see him immunitying his way to a win. Despite his charm, given his quirks I would actually have him out fairly early were it not again for the season preview, which shows him aligning with another smart person (yet to be talked about) on his tribe, and I think the pair of them can take control. Rest assured, he’d be a goner if he wasn’t on what’s likely to be the dominant tribe. As is, he’ll definitely do well, but much as I’d like to say he kicks everyone’s butt with his airbending prowess, even with his advantaged position he just doesn’t have the prowess to clinch the win. Also, kudos to the five of you who understand why I made that specific reference in relation to Omar.
Swati Goel (19, Ivy League Student, Palo Alto, CA, Ika Tribe): Sadly, Swati is our major case of “Someone who would probably do ok were they on a different tribe for the season.” True, Swati has a couple of red flags even given her tribe, notably complaining about people who are “emotionally manipulative”, and admiring human scum Elon Musk. That said, it’s hard for me to diss a fellow theater kid, and I applaud her comparing herself favorably to the underrated players of Victoria Baamonde (“Survivor Edge of Extinction”) and Kass McQuillen (“Survivor Cagayan”). Honestly, the good and bad kind of balance out, and given how drama filled this tribe is, they’d have bigger fish to fry, and she can coast by for a while. That’s what I would be saying were it not for the presence of Tori and her advantage/idol, where Swati I think is likely going to be the victim. She may not be the top of everyone’s hit list, but when those on the bottom swing into power, she suddenly drops in stock, and unfortunately goes pre-merge. Again, a shame for a fellow theater kid, but I call them as I see them.
Hai Giang (29, Data Scientist, New Orleans, LA, Vati Tribe): Hai is another one I was kind of “meh” on at first glance, but grew to love the more I read about him. While the dude is another one who tends more towards the strategic side of the game, rather than the interpersonal, he has a sense of justice and humanity that I think helps balance it out. More concerning are, again, his pet peeves, which include judgmental people and patronizing people, both of which are likely to show up on “Survivor”. The best I can say is he probably doesn’t have to worry about people wearing shoes indoors here. That said, I have a hard time poo-pooing someone who identifies with the great Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”), and given that he’s a likely challenge anchor on a tribe that will need to keep strength around to have a chance, Hai will still around until at least the early merge, if not the mid-merge. Really, he’s going to be his own undoing, as I see his sense of justice leading to him potentially falling on his sword (or torch) for someone else he’s allied with. Overall nice guy who will stick around at least a decent amount of time. Always good to see.
Lindsay Dolashewich (31, Dietitian, Asbury Park, NJ, Taku Tribe): Lindsay better hope that the Taku Tribe is truly dominant, as in going to Tribal Council no more than once pre-merge. Otherwise, she’s going to have an issue. Age-wise, Lindsay is a good fit for her tribe, but she seems very stiff-backed and set in her ways based on her bio. Add on her self-describing as “loud”, and she can get on one’s nerves very easily. That said, this is a fairly quirky tribe, and one unlikely to have a lot of early boots, which probably saves Lindsay’s bacon for a bit. Marya stands out more, and so will go first, but Lindsay probably goes somewhere in the early merge. That said, she does compare herself to the underrated Lauren Beck (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), and recognizes that social game is paramount. If she can channel that strategic acumen and social grace, and manage to avoid being as sound as she normally is, she could have a deep run.
Mike Turner (58, Retired Firefighter, Hoboken, NJ, Vati Tribe): How nice of CBS to let Eric Abraham from last season chance his name and get a second shot. Seriously, older retired African-American dude, big on loyalty and playing the long game? I could pretty much just copy/past Eric’s bio from last season, and it would take a minute to notice the difference. Dude seems likable enough, but as Eric demonstrated last season, such a long, basic game doesn’t work on a shortened season with a ton of twists. Mike does SLIGHTLY better than Eric given that his tribe is more competent, and there are more obvious early targets, but like his counterpart, I just don’t see Mike making the merge in this group.
Lydia Meredith (22, Waitress, Santa Monica, CA, Vati Tribe): Some players are here for strategy, some players are here for entertainment, some players are here for both. Time will tell Lydia’s strategic capabilities, but from her bio alone, she will be entertaining. The name of the game is comedy, folks. Lydia is an aspiring comedian, and first describes herself as “funny” before all else. How will that translate to the island? Frankly, it depends upon how good the comedy is, which I have no way of assessing just from her bio. Save for her player comparisons. In addition to the odd choice of Tom Westman (“Survivor Palau”), she mentions Cirie (“Survivor Exile Island”) and Debbie Wanner (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”). One intentionally funny and good at the social game, one unintentionally funny and bad at the social game. I leave it to the fans to figure out which is which. Lydia’s got a shot at making it deep if she channels the former, but even if she channels the latter, unless her comedy REALLY bombs, I see her making at least the merge. She’s lucky that she’s not on the disaster tribe, and that there are other more obvious targets before her. I have a hard time seeing her winning, but I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t at least make the early merge, and could even go mid-merge if she’s more Cirie than Debbie.
Rocksroy Bailey (44, Stay-At-Home Dad, Las Vegas, NV, Ika Tribe): No matter how disastrous a tribe may be, there’s always at least one person from it who makes it deep. Such is the case with Rocksroy here, who is my male pick to win the whole shebang! On a tribe that’s going to need challenge strength, Rocksroy is clearly their big gun, and likely in no danger early on as a result. His pet peeve being drivers not using their turn signal also helps endear me to the guy, though I will say that “someone who thinks they know everything” is a bit more concerning game-wise. The guy is brief in his bio. so there’s not a lot to go on, but enough that you feel like you know him. What can I say, playing one’s cards close to the chest is a good thing on “Survivor”. Plus, I feel like the dude is good at compartmentalizing and keeping secrets. My evidence? Like I said, this case got spoiled early, and spoilers come with pictures. The one exception? Rocksroy. If the dude is good enough to keep his online presence such a secret there’s no good quality photos of him around, the dude is good enough to keep secrets on “Survivor”. And once again, even the photo, dude exudes charm, and that charm alone is enough to make him my first winner pick of the season.
Jenny Kim (43, Creative Director, New York, NY, Vati Tribe): Remember how I said there were some obvious targets should Vati go to Tribal Council? Yeah, Jenny is definitely the big one here. Being outspoken and in a leadership role works well in business, but on “Survivor”, particularly on small tribes that might not gel with your leadership style, they only make you a target. jenny has a good shot if she can quietly lead from the sidelines, but I don’t see someone who describes themselves as “direct” doing very well with that. Add onto that a concerning pet peeve (“Arrogant people and those with a sense of entitlement.”), along with less-obvious challenge prowess (though by no means a challenge sink), and Jenny becomes the obvious first pick for a boot should she attend an early Tribal. As she’s not on the likely dominant tribe, I fear her fate is to be another robbed goddess, another pre-merge boot.
Daniel Strunk (30, Law Clerk, New Haven, CT, Vati Tribe): Ah, our resident nerd archetype for the season, as well as the second person we confirmed to find an idol/advantage based on the season preview. Daniel early on worms his way into my heart with his love of Legos, and fortunately I think he’ll be around for a while for this love to grow. No real red flags apart from one of his pet peeves being “people so convinced they’re right they foreclose debate”, though I suppose the show could disguise some oatmeal raisin cookies as chocolate chip cookies to throw him off his game. He also talked about admiring Supreme Court Justices of vastly different ideologies. Perhaps a bit of a stretch, but I feel like this might indicate that he’s good at reaching across the aisle and work with pretty much anyone. Always a useful skill on “Survivor”. Sadly, the time of nerds being 100% dominant has passed, and so Daniel will not be our winner. That said, just because nerds often do well and now getting targeted doesn’t mean Daniel can’t match that level of success. His social acumen, coupled with his idol, to me makes him a mid-to-late merge boot, particularly since there’s often bigger targets than him no matter if he’s in the Tribal phase or the Merge phase.
Maryanne Oketch (24, Seminary Student, Ajax, Ontario, Canada, Taku Tribe): Seems we’re just getting all the guaranteed idol/advantage finds out of the way here. Yes, Omar may have REACTED to her find, but Maryanne is the one who actually FINDS the thing on the Taku Tribe. Maryanne is… Well, the best word I have is “quirky”, but again, a lot of this tribe is quirky. I’d say she’s in danger early, but she’s on the tribe least likely to lose on paper, and we know she finds something powerful, and I expect her and Omar to leverage that to become the power couple on the tribe. Unlike Omar, however, I expect Maryanne to leverage her advantage to a win. Yes, Maryanne is my female pick to win the whole thing. This might come as a surprise, given her occupation, but again, Shan has made me see that as less of a red flag, and that’s really the only mention of her religion we get from Maryanne, so I think she’ll be able to compartmentalize well. Granted, her pet peeves have ALL the red flags, and between her and Rocksroy, I’d say she’s my less-comfortable winner pick, but given that she has time to adjust, I think she can probably overcome these issues. Besides, if Danny McCray can overcome “liars” as a pet peeve last season, Maryanne can overcome “People who don’t listen to me… hypocrites, and people who don’t apologize.” If she can sleep well, she’ll do fairly well. It’ll also help is she takes her cues from her previous contestant comparison. Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) had charm coming out his ears, and I feel like Maryanne might as well. Plus, she’s a fan of tabletop games. How can I not root for her?
Zach Wurtenberger (22, Student, St. Louis, MO, Ika Tribe): Oh dear, guess I spoke too soon with Swati. Look, Zach seems like a nice kid, Not much to recommend him one way or the other, though I will say his particularly young age (second youngest in the group) is a bit of a mark against, and unlike Lydia, I HAVE seen his comedy. It’s… Not CRINGE-WORTHY, but not exactly good either. None of this would really be a death knell, but he’s unfortunately on what’s likely to be the disaster tribe, and thus probably another pre-merge boot. Sorry, man. Hope for another “Second Chances” season where you get a better tribe draw.
Drea Wheeler (35, Fitness Consultant, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Ika Tribe): Rounding out our cast, we have the person who, at first glance, I THOUGHT was going to be my main winner pick for the season. True, she’s on the likely disaster tribe, but like I said, SOME on the disaster tribe have to make it through, and as Drea is a likely challenge beast, she was not likely to be a target on such a tribe. Then, as I read into the bio, my hopes were dashed. I’ve tried to be kinder to the pet peeves this season, and give people the benefit of a doubt where they can overcome them, but when your SOLE one is “Dishonest people”? Yeah, kind of an issue on “Survivor”. Granted, she’s still going to be around a while given the Kelley Wentworth (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) comparison, if she can pull it off, and the need for athleticism on her tribe means she’s likely to stick around a while, just not a winner pick anymore. Still, look for her out no earlier than the mid-merge, probably with an immunity run in their somewhere.
Well, there we go! With one major exception, pretty likable cast, and for once, firmer predictions than usual! Overall I’m very satisfied, though not satisfied enough to sit and wait for the season to start to begin blogging. Be on the lookout for something old, and something new, before the new season begins March 9th!
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 