With the new cast release, that mean’s it’s time to bring back “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to. Once again, we get to talk about “Survivor”, specifically “Survivor White Collar vs. Blue Collar vs. No Collar”, I mean “Survivor Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty”, I mean “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”. Sorry, I don’t know HOW I could have confused those COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THEMES for one another!
Snarking aside, I do have to say that, while I do think the three-tribe format often brings out the best that “Survivor” has to offer, when they go themed with it, it DOES get a bit repetitive after a while. Every season, you’ve got the physical, no-nonsense team (Brawn, Blue Collars), the intellectual, scheming team (Brain, White Collars), and the “What the heck even is this category?” team (Beauty, No Collars). This season is no exception, with the Heroes, Healers, and Hustlers falling into each of these three categories respectively. I bring this up only because it does influence my judgement on how some people will do this season. Also, this season will hereinafter be abbreviated “Survivor HvHvH” as seen in the title of this blog, because the show stupidly didn’t save the “Mamanuca Islands” label for this season, when “Survivor Game Changers” could have easily done without that subtitle. Oh well, enough snarking about production, let’s get to snarking about the cast, in title order.
LEVU Tribe (Heroes)
Alan Ball (31, NFL Player, Houston, TX): Was there ever a more obvious surname for a pro football player than “Ball”? Kind of a neat little touch, and Alan should take what he can get, as I will have very little else nice to say about him. History is not kind to Alan’s type on “Survivor”. Pro ball players have made it deep, to be sure, but they either tend to be boring or out earlier than you’d expect. They need something exceptional to give them much of a chance, and Alan unfortunately does not have anything to recommend him in this area. He lists his pet peeve as “liars”, which, in case it wasn’t obvious, should be a red flag for “Survivor”. He also mentions having a short temper, particularly when he’s hungry. Add another red flag for the guy. And, on top of all that, he says the generic “There’s never been a player like me!” quote, leading me to believe that he has next to zero knowledge of the show. Point being, this guy is toast. Normally his physical strength would keep him around for a bit longer, but this tribe is not lacking in the strength department. What they won’t tolerate, however, is someone who makes waves, and in case it hasn’t been clear, Alan is the type DESTINED to make waves. His tribe is at least strong enough to prevent him being the first boot entirely, but believe me, when this tribe goes to Tribal Council, Alan is the first one out from their tribe, and a pre-merge boot for sure.
Chrissy Hoffbeck (46, Financial Analyst, Glen Gardner, NJ): It seems we’re destined to get the negative-skewing bios out early for this tribe, as Chrissy is another player I’m iffy on. I’ll admit, though, that I’m coming around on her shortly. Being an older lady might seem to work against her, but this is a season in general, and a tribe in particular, that skews older than you might think, so I’m not sure that’s a HUGE detriment for Chrissy. More damning is the fact that she’s a financial analyst, on a tribe of athletes, firefighters, and military types. Some commonality there in being more brawn than brain, but Chrissy goes against that type, and anything that separates you from the pack early game tends to be a bad sign. What I will say in Chrissy’s favor is that she seems very mild-mannered. Bad for tv, but given that I don’t see this tribe going to Tribal Council very much in the early days, she might hang around for a bit. It helps that I see her and the probably power player on this tribe (whom we’ll talk about in a bit) getting along very well, which could help for a long life in this game. Still, those negative factors for Chrissy haven’t gone away, and I’d look for her to stick around no longer than the early merge area. A loyal number, nothing more.
John “JP” Hilsabeck (28, Firefighter, Los Angeles, CA): Ah, now here’s the bread and butter of a tribe designated the “Heroes”. JP comes across as your young, hot, fit guy of the season, and gives us little more than that. To be more specific, he comes across as another version of Eddie Fox (“Survivor Caramoan”), mainly because he talks about his dog a fair amount, and seems pretty simple-minded. When I compare JP to Eddie, I mean that in both the good and the bad ways. The man’s clearly not up to snuff strategically, but on this tribe, that may not matter so much. It also, unfortunately, means he won’t bring much of anything new to the table, but will at least be an inoffensive early merge boot, due to his challenge threat.
Katrina Radke (46, Olympian, Excelsior, MN): One of the joys of doing these cast assessment blogs is diving deep into these people’s biographies, and finding someone you didn’t think much about initially, but really came to love. This season, Katrina is that person for me. What first caught my eye, of course, was the tie-dye swimsuit. I’m amazed the corporate suits of “Survivor” allowed anyone not related to Rupert Boneham (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) to wear tie-dye, but I’m certainly glad they’re loosening up. Cool clothing is one thing, though. What really caught my eye was her choice for the player she most resembles. Katrina made the choice of Denise Stapley (“Survivor Philippines”), which is, I think, a smart and underrated choice. Denise is a great player to emulate, but not one often thought of by casual fans. This tells me that, recruit or not, Katrina knows her stuff when it comes to “Survivor”. Looking at her bio, of course, made me want to know more about Katrina’s olympic past, so I decided to look up her event. She was a swimmer who went to the 1988 Olympics, and ultimately came in fifth place. Nothing to sneeze at, and she’s clearly kept the muscle up from that point on. Apart from the obvious tone of her body, she also qualified for the 2004 Olympics. Granted that was 13 years ago, but it implies that she’s probably not washed up. What seals the deal for me, though, is what she’s done apart from athletics. This woman has a degree in Psychology, and an understanding of the more intellectual side of things. All well and good. She’s got brains. She’s got physicality. But so did Malcolm Freberg (“Survivor Philippines”), and he never seemed a favorite to win. What makes Katrina different? YOU CAN’T TELL ANY OF THIS! Seriously, glance her once over, and she just looks like another older mom! She doesn’t need to tell anyone about her Olympic past, and no one will suspect it. It was long ago, relatively speaking, and as she didn’t medal at the Olympics, no one would probably guess. It’s one thing to have all these skills. It’s another to be able to keep them hidden. That is what makes Katrina so dangers and intriguing, what makes her my favorite new player this season, and my female pick to win it all. I’m perhaps being risky by picking an older woman to win, as the demographic historically does not do well, but I stand by it. Katrina is DANGEROUS, but no one would suspect it looking at her, which only makes her MORE dangerous. I could see people negatively comparing her to Sunday Burquest (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”), but I would argue that it’s not a negative comparison. Sunday was a good player. I will fight you on this. We didn’t see a lot of her because it didn’t fit the overall narrative of the season, but she had some good moments of insight, and her post-“Survivor” writings tell me there’s a lot more going on there. The same goes with Katrina, and I say she comes to power and makes it work. Hence why I gave Chrissy better odds that at first glance; I see these two getting along very well, thus saving Chrissy’s butt for a while. Plus, Katrina comes from a town called “Excelsior”. Very cool. Stan Lee would be proud.
Ben Driebergen (34, Marine, Boise, ID): Audience, meet Jeff Probst’s new man crush. Seriously, he’s a strong, laid back good-old-boy with a cowboy hat. If Probst wasn’t already married, he’d propose. Like JP, Ben brings very little to the table that you wouldn’t expect. More laid-back military types like him tend to do well on the show, since they’re helpful but don’t get in the way. I’d expect Ben to do the same, taken along like the loyal soldier he is, until being booted in the mid-to-late merge as a threat. On a more positive note, Ben DOES seem to let his goofy side out more than some, which will probably make him a fairly entertaining character, but in terms of a strategic force? Not happening.
Ashley Nolan (26, Lifeguard, Satellite Beach, FL): On a tribe that skews older, often being younger can actually be a detriment. Look at the fate of Tanya Vance (“Survivor Thailand”) as evidence of that. I initially thought that Ashley might fall into the same trap, and she’s by no means out of the woods on this tribe. However, like I said, one needs to look at this tribe less based on age, particularly as older people are more lily to bring younger people into the fold than the other way around, and more based on who will rock the boat. Ashley, unless someone rubs her the wrong way, I don’t see rocking the boat. Scratch that, I see ALAN rubbing her the wrong way, but I see him rubbing EVERYBODY the wrong way. If anything, that will bond her more to her tribe. Like with Chrissy, I don’t see Ashley making much of an impact, but I feel like Ashley can do better on her own, in the even of, say, a tribe swap, and I thus give her much better odds. Not a winner, but probably a mid-to-late merge boot, and we’ll probably get a few exciting confessionals out of her along the way.
SOKO Tribe (Healers)
Jessica Johnson (29, Nurse Practitioner, Louisville, KY): Hoo boy. Once again, we must start off on a semi-negative bio. At first glance, Jessica is your generic nursing student, with a few fun quirks in there. So help me, I find her pet peeve being “can openers” to be hilarious. But that’s just it: She has NOTHING to make her stand out, making her unlikely to be a go-getter into an alliance. This might be fine if she had nothing to rock the boat, but she’s about the only contestant this season to mention religion as a major part of her life. That something, while potentially small, might be enough of a reason to boot her early on. I don’t get a whole lot from Jessica one way or the other, so she may be able to overcome my initial impressions. After all, I had similar thoughts about Michelle Schubert on “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”, and she managed to overcome just fine. But Jessica is on a tribe I predict to lose a lot early on, and this small difference, to me, probably makes her a pre-merge boot.
Cole Medders (24, Wilderness Therapy Guide, Little Rock, AK): Cole can consider himself lucky to have been put on the one tribe without a lot of initial strength, as it’s going to save him for a while. Cole is one of that rarer and rarer breed these days who seems to be in it “for the adventure” rather than for the game. On a tribe of intellectuals like this, this would normally make him an outcast, but as I said, his strength will make him a necessity in the early days of the game, and his lack of drive will probably propel him later in the game. Brought in as an easy number with no real drive, Cole will probably outlast the other generic good-looking guys to be a late-merge boot, but his strength will, ironically, ultimately prevent him from winning.
Desiree “Desi” Williams (27, Physical Therapist, Newport News, VA): While not to the same degree as Katrina earlier, Desi is another one who went up in my estimation after the first glance. I was concerned initially because the “Healers” group tends either towards psychological therapy or medical healing, while Desi doesn’t fit well into either category. Something told me she was more a fitness freak whom they stuck on this tribe because they had nowhere else to put her, and so I wrote her off, very nearly declaring her the first boot of the season. What saved her, however, was hearing her talk. While a physical therapist, she’s not a fitness nut, also works as a professor, and overall works well with the academic side of things, making me think she’ll fit on the tribe better than expected. That said, she’s one of the few openly worried about how she’ll do in the outdoors, and I still mark her as a pre-merge boot because of this. Not quite as bad as I first thought, but probably not going to make it in the end.
Joe Mena (34, Probation Office, Tolland, CT): One of the things I’ve discovered about entering the work force is that you start to unconsciously identify with people in similar occupations. Given that I work with offenders, and often have to interact with the local probation department, it would be easy to write off my taking Joe as my male pick to win as simple in-house bias. I must admit, I have some reservations about this pick, and it shows how slim the pickings were amongst the men that I ended up siding with him. He looks like more of a meathead than you’d expect from his occupation, and his bio and interview don’t seem to defy this expectation. However, Joe seems JUST likable enough to get into some early alliances, but not so much as to be threatening. Plus, having worked with offenders, I can attest that working in the field does amp up your bullshit detector, and makes you used to not trusting what others have to say. These are both very useful skills on “Survivor”, and though I think Joe undersells them in hyping himself up, I feel that he can use these to eke out a win, if he plays his cards right.
Roark Luskin (27, Social Worker, Santa Monica, CA): Roark also initially came across as fairly generic to me, but I did like her point in the interview about some days going home crying, and some days proud of the job you did. Slightly not my field of expertise, but again, I can identify. Beyond this, I can’t say there’s much of anything of Roark to make her stand out, good or bad, so again, she’s probably a generic number in an alliance, meaning she’s out somewhere in the mid-merge area. Hope I’m wrong about her, but I’m not expecting too much from her.
Mike Zahalsky (43, Urologist, Parkland, FL): One of the people built up pre-season, I was prepared to really like Mike. And, to a certain extent, I do. He’s got a nice wit about him. He seems to be a superfan, which always appeals to me. Plus, he likes “Game of Thrones”, which, while not for me, does show that he likes quality work. On a season where there don’t seem to be as many strategist, you’d think that Mike would have an easy walk to the end of the game. Unfortunately for Mike, three big factors really hurt his game. One is his own description of his “diarrhea of the mouth”, which again, should be a MAJOR red flag for doing well in the game. Entertaining as all get out, but bad for business. Second, I thought Mike would be at least DECENTLY fit, but he himself admits that he’s not the best physically. On top of all this, I thought Mike might turn out to be more of a character of his own, but he comes across to me as the “older strategic nerd” type we’ve seen a few times before. Think Marty Piombo of “Survivor Nicaragua”, or David Murphy of “Survivor Redemption Island”. Both fun characters (at least to some degree), but neither bodes well for time in the game, as both were early merge boots on their respective seasons. Speaking of which, that’s how I think Mike will do. He’ll get some good moments and dominate strategy in the early game, but then get taken out due to being an obvious strategist and not having the numbers to save himself. At least he has potential, which is more than I can say for a lot of the guys on this cast!
YAWA Tribe (Hustlers)
Ryan Ulrich (23, Bellhop, North Arlington, NJ): Another of our contestants prominently featured in the pre-season preview, Ryan compares himself favorably with Todd Herzog (“Survivor China”), which shows that the kid at least has good self-knowledge. If Mike was here to exemplify the “older nerd” character type, Ryan is the all more common “young, determined superfan” character type, with similar pitfalls to Mike. While Ryan does have an edge strategy-wise on a lot of the people here, simply by virtue of having a strategy, the fact remains that people have come to RECOGNIZE that they can’t let this character type go too deep, or they’ll win the whole thing. Not that it’s impossible to do, even in recent seasons. Adam Klein (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) managed to scrape a victory, despite ALSO having to overcome this stereotype. But again, I don’t see much that makes Ryan special beyond this basic character type. To be sure, this basic character type is fun, and given that Ryan seems more dedicated to winning than most here, I’d peg him to stay for a while. Probably a late-merge boot, if I had to put an area of elimination to it. Fact simply is that Ryan’s just about 20 seasons too late to really capitalize on his strengths, but he should at least be a fun watch.
Simone Nguyen (25, Diversity Advocate, New York, NY): Yet another person I had written off entirely proves me wrong. I see the occupation “diversity advocate”, and I immediately think of someone who’s going to get on people’s nerves in a confined environment. Don’t get me wrong, it’s great and important work that these type of people do. But such people tend not to seem cutthroat enough for a game like “Survivor”, and when you have to be around someone so passionate 24/7, it can get old really fast. Thankfully for her time in the game, Simone goes against the stereotypes one would associate with her occupation. She has an edge I wouldn’t have expected, and seems more focussed on the game than a lot of the people on this season. Not that her leadership style is overt, though, meaning she can lead without seeming to lead, and therefore seem less of a threat. The fact that she often comes across as INCREDIBLY cold prevents me from making her my winner pick, but I definitely see her making it deep, probably as a power couple with Ryan. Another one I’d put in the mid-to-late merge category.
Devon Pinto (23, Surf Instructor, Solana Beach, CA): Meet Ozzy, I mean Malcolm, I mean Joe, I mean Devon! Yeah, I’m getting ahead to my full thoughts a bit here, but do there HAVE to be so many generic good-looking guys this season? The women seemed to have sucked up all the interesting personality. Not that I’m complaining, but like I said, I had to grasp at straws with the guys, and Devon is probably the worst of the lot. The other young, good-looking guys at least had either a minimum of brains or enough necessity on their starting tribe to make the merge. Devon, though? He has pretty much no factors working for him, apart from physical strength, and while I don’t see him as invested in the game, he’s not out of it like some of the other guys, making him more of a target as time goes by. At least one strong guy is usually a pre-merge boot, and in this case, I’d say Devon is that guy.
Alexandrea “Ari” Elliott (24, Celebrity Assistant, Los Angeles, CA): The last person featured in the pre-season preview to talk about, Ari is a rare example of someone who went DOWN in my estimation the more I learned about her. I don’t know what that preview did, but it make Ari seem like a tough go-getter, who was sneaky enough to be a real threat to win. These interviews and bios? Gone is the tough lady who might be able to work her wiles under the radar. Instead, we’ve got the most worldly contestant of this season with no physical skills, survival skills, or strategic skills to speak of. Rarely has a first boot been spelled out this clearly. For all that she can protest that her job requires flexibility, I see little of that in her, and will look forward to seeing her torch snuffed in the first episode.
Patrick Bolton (24, Small Business Owner, Auburn, AL): “Redneck Cochran”, as I have unofficially nicknamed him, has more of a chance in this game than his name would indicate. He’s laid back, but unlike a lot of the guys this season, I do think Patrick cares about the game. This means he’ll be proverbially eaten alive by all the WOMEN who care about this game, but I think this makes Patrick just savvy enough to stay alive for quite a while. He’s likely to be aware of what’s going on, but content to do his thing on the down-low, subtly manipulating where needed, and not going overboard with the strategy. This should take him into the late merge period, where he’ll finally be discarded as useless, but should be a fun ride for us and for Patrick in the meantime.
Lauren Rimmer (35, Fisherman, Beaufort, NC): Why must I always like the people destined to do badly on this show? Lauren seems like a lot of fun to hang out with outside the game. Inside the game? She’s a big target. While the season as a whole skews old, this tribe skews young, with Lauren being the only member older than 25. Early on, that’s not a good sign, and from what Lauren has said, I don’t see her suffering being led by the duo of Ryan and Simone gladly. I think she’ll be able to lie low just long enough to avoid being the first boot, but will eventually need to try and blatantly take control. This will rub people the wrong way, and on top of just being too different from the rest of her tribe, this will give Lauren the boot. Which, again, is a shame, as she seems like a really fun character, with her single-mom no-nonsense attitude. Frankly, she reminds me a lot of Patricia Jackson (“Survivor Marquesas”): an older woman who’s good for the first episode, but then lets power go to her head, becomes a nuisance, and is let go for it. She shall be missed as a pre-merge boot.
And there you have it. Fortunately, my thoughts on this cast are short, so the blog is almost over. I’m disappointed in the amount of generic guys on this season, but while the women ALSO have their share of blandness, they have a larger number of standouts, which is refreshing to see. I also see this being a woman-dominated season, which is always good for the show. Sadly, I don’t see this cast as going down very well. While there are a few good standouts in my book (Katrina, Joe, Simone, Lauren), the fact remains that we’re 35 season in, a lot of the character types look recycled, and the majority just don’t stand out very well. I could be wrong. After all, I leveled a similar charge at “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”, which turned out pretty good, but the cast would have to put in major work. As to the tribes, it’s tough for me to say. I see Soko losing a lot early on, with Yawa also getting a few taken out. This would seem to give Levu a clear advantage, but on a three-tribe season, it’s hard for a group of five or six to have a true majority. So, if there’s one benefit, this season is tough to predict in how it will go.
Apart from the cast, we have heard a few things that make me happy. Ties are back, after their absence from “Survivor Game Changers”. The new advantage being trotted out is an “Only good at the first Tribal Council” idol, that must be sent to a member of the losing tribe if the finder does not lose. Kind of basic, but could make for some good cross-tribe strategizing. And, perhaps best of all, it looks as though the clue to the hidden immunity idol is a pictograph carved on a tree, which is awesome and a great way to hide the idol.
Bottom line: There’s some good stuff here, and I’m not writing the season off yet, but things aren’t looking too good at this point. Still, I can hope!
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 