Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Finale: Got Me Saying It

You all know I like my running gags around here.  I mean, there’s a reason the “Matthew Grinstead-Mayle Injury Rock (TM)” kept getting mentioned several episodes after it had any relevance this season.  And one of my other ones has been at the expense of Ben, or at least his catchphrase.  This is partly in fun, partly out of how basic it is, and partly out of me just not connecting with Ben (nothing against the guy; we just have little in common).  And yet, for all that I mock, I must now eat my words, as there is simply no other way to say it:

This season rocks.  

To find out exactly why, we go back to the beginning, with everyone getting back to camp.  And I do mean, CAMP.  Yes, for the first time in the new era, we’re NOT stuck going to some new beach for the final five for some reason!  I assumed they just neglected to mention it since we’d assume it was coming last episode, but nope!  They’re just doing away with it entirely.  Hope that stays.  It was a pointless, annoying twist that just ate up time.  

Instead, we focus on more important things, like how exactly Maria plans to save her skin after being blindsided.  The answer, it seems, is running back to Charlie tail between her proverbial legs.  She’s clearly emotional about the whole thing, and in confessional admits that being in this position really hurts and frustrates her (rather defeatist, if I’m being honest.  Not a good look on her), but does her level best to try and claw something back.  She spins a tale to Charlie about Liz and Kenzie insisting that it would be him, only to blindside her.  A lie Charlie sees right through, but at least his “Keep my options open” strategy is bearing fruit.  For his part, Charlie admits to feeling a mite betrayed by the whole thing, but also acknowledges that he can’t really complain when he’d have done the same to her were she not immune.  All in all, Maria is still on extremely thin ice, but she’s doing what she can to give herself a proverbial lifeline.  

But this has not been a season solely focussed on strategy.  No, more so than any season in the new era, this one is about the DRAMA!  Naturally, the eviction of one such as Q cannot be left alone, and we get our gloating in the form of Liz, happy that her game has taken off.  Really gives me “Survivor Vanuatu” vibes.  The person you voted off it may not have been smart to do, but MAN are you happy about it and going to tell the world about it.  This is the modern version of Scout’s “No Eliza Noises” confessional, basically.  

Morning comes, and we get another nice surprise: NO stupid challenge advantage scavenger hunt!  No, we instead just get a reaffirmation of the need to beat Maria today, and we head off to our challenge.  Simple, effective, nothing in excess.  Maybe the show is learning after all.  

Our challenge… Well I would call it another standard obstacle course, but this one has a few fun beats that, if not original, at least help it stand out.  In particular, an early mud net crawl (for which Liz has to take off her glasses, only to put them on.  Personally I’d leave my glasses off for the entirety of the challenge, if possible), using a rope ball on a string to pull down a bridge, and a puzzle giving clues of what to count for a combination lock.  Fun elements that you don’t see in your standard obstacle course, and so I’ll give this one a pass.  

Maria and Charlie are initially the frontrunners on this challenge, though Kenzie manages to get even with them on the puzzle.  That’s where things get funky.  As mentioned, the puzzle, when solved, reveals a clue of things to count to open a combination lock.  One of these things are the number of holes in a plank that was used RIGHT after the mud crawl on the challenge, basically necessitating a re-running of the obstacle course for our contestants.  Sadistic, but this portion actually ends up being a bit broken.  You see, Liz and Ben are both pretty much out of it.  Liz, however, realizing that she’s unlikely to win, sets out to help Kenzie.  She goes to retrieve Kenzie’s plank, thereby leaving Kenzie free to count the two other things, which are readily available to her.  Maria, conversely, has to run the whole thing once she solves the puzzle, costing her valuable time.  Kenzie does make a mistake in her own counting, but still manages to pull out a win.  

This may come as a surprise to some, since I panned Sophie suggesting that Albert do exactly this back in the infancy days of my blog, aka “Survivor South Pacific”, but I actually like this move for Liz.  The difference here is that in the challenge with Sophie and Albert, there was the possibility, however remote, that Ozzy could mess up, thereby opening the door for everyone else.  In an individual game, Albert has no need to help Sophie.  Yes, the want to beat Ozzy, but he could possibly fail on his own in that scenario.  This is a “First past the post” race, with no real way to fall behind (save for Liz herself forgetting her key at one point, which was a good laugh), so helping someone else gain ground is much smarter.  Moreover, by winning immunity, Kenzie can come across as being the person to “vanquish” the main threat of the season, that being Maria.  By helping her, you steal some of that credit for yourself.  If Liz had a real chance to win that challenge, I’d be more critical, but if you can’t win, then at least influence the outcome.  Besides, Adam Klein did this on “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”, and it helped him win the whole game.  Hmm, I wonder if that particular challenge will be relevant later this episode…

In addition to Immunity, Kenzie also gets to take one person to “The Sanctuary” for a meal, since  Probst just needs to annoy me with that slogan ONE MORE TIME!  Kenzie chooses Ben, which is the logical choice.  Apart from the pair being close, Kenzie probably wants to solidify strategy talk with him.  They do so on the reward, with Ben talking about how nice it is to have a true friend out here, not just someone to talk game with.  Solidifying once and for all that Ben is a genuine, nice guy without a strategic bone in his body.  

Thankfully we have some real strategy talk back at camp.  Were I in Maria’s position, I would be gunning hard for Charlie.  He’s proved willing to vote against your own interests, and is easier to talk up as a threat than basically anyone else left.  I am NOT Maria, however, as evidenced by the fact that she tries to target BEN instead.  Look, I get not wanting to burn your bridge with Charlie, but for Maria at this point, the philosophy should be “Anyone but me.” And again, Charlie is the easiest to target.  Hell, even if you DO want to work with him, there’s not reason to include him on your idol hunt!  You really think he’s going to let you know if he finds it?  Get real.  

To Maria’s credit, however, I will say she is an excellent salesperson.  As mentioned, she targets Ben, spinning a lie about how Ben’s Kenzie vote WASN’T a mistake, but a game move, and he can pull this sort of stunt with a bunch of things at the end.  Her tone and word choice almost make it believable, until you hear Ben say “That rocks” for the umpteenth time.  More compelling, and more realistic, is her point that Ben has many friends on the jury, and is well-liked.  For some juries, that’s all it takes.  It’s enough to get Liz and Charlie thinking, and is decent enough misdirection, but I’m not buying it.  Maria’s target is just too big.  You do not help someone else win a challenge just to keep the person you were trying to beat around.  

Evidently the editing team feels the same way, as any chance of misdirection goes out the window at Tribal Council, with Kenzie even flat-out admitting she’s voting Maria.  Thus, this Tribal turns into Maria’s farewell tour, which is definitely earned, but not that compelling.  Her talk of growing up with Lebanese immigrant parents is nice enough, but it doesn’t leave as much of an impact as it perhaps might have had at other times.  

So confident is the show that we don’t buy its own misdirection that they show all the votes.  A rare misstep in editing for this episode.  I’ll talk about it more throughout the blog, but the editing on this episode in particular had a lot of little funny moments I really enjoyed, and ranged from highly competent to masterful in most dramatic moments.  Here, however?  I get that the misdirection was weak, but if you’re going to drop it halfway through, why have it at all?  Just let this be one big swan song for Maria.  I will say, however, that I did enjoy Kenzie’s voting confession.  Her saying she “Wants to be [Maria] when [she] grows up”, coming from a woman who was 29 at the time of filming, is hilarious.  

I presume the Shot in the Dark has expired by now (I care about it so little, I honestly can’t remember), since Maria does not play it, and unsurprisingly goes.  I am sorry to see her go.  Maria is the most competent strategist I’d have been ok with winning this season (I’ll get more into that at the end), since she did make some mistakes, and as demonstrated this episode, could get a bit emotional.  It would have been a fitting win for the season, and we’re also badly in need of an older female winner by now.  You shall be missed, Maria.  

Also, while this in no way impacted boot order that we can tell, it IS a bit depressing that we’ve got four white people at the end, Maria being the last person of color left.  That said, clearly the diversity initiative is still doing its job properly, since this is the first season in the new era while the final three won’t contain at least one person of color.  This was just kind of a fluke in how this particular game played out, not any sort of commentary on how these players perceive that aspect.  

We should be preparing for our final Immunity Challenge, but before we can get to that, we need to add something ELSE to Liz’s ongoing list of ailments!  On top of all the allergies, she tells us she has weak joints that frequently don’t work properly.  Again I ask: And you came on “Survivor” WHY?  Liz is going to be sorry about that as well, given what our final challenge is that…

YOU’RE GOING TO PLAY “PLINKO” FOR UP TO $50,000!

Ok, ok, it’s not that, but given that CBS owns both franchises, it would have been funny if Probst had said that.  No, our players just have to assemble a puzzle of the logo of the season.  Simple, right?  Well, before they can begin, they have to toss a ball to the top of basically a giant pegboard, and catch it before it hits a metal ramp as it comes down.  Fail, and they can’t keep working on their puzzle until the ball goes ALL the way down the ramp, in an agonizing slow fashion.  This must be done continuously throughout the challenge.  

Plinko aside, there are probably two challenges that come to mind when you hear this description.  An immunity challenge from “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” is the more 1-1 comparison, particularly as I alluded to earlier.  That was a scaled-down version of this very challenge, memorable since that was when Adam stopped his own challenge to help Ken win, in order to get out a preferred target.  The giant pegboard itself, however?  Well, sad to say that’s now a DEEP cut in “Survivor” history, but for those of you who remember “Survivor Nicaragua” (and frankly I don’t blame anyone who doesn’t want to remember that season), pegboards of this size were used in a tribal immunity challenge.  Did not expect a Nicaragua throwback here, but I’m cool with it.  

Slow and steady really does win the race here.  Charlie and Liz both cut it too close, and drop their ball.  This is one of the funny editing bits, where we cut from the dramatic music of the challenge for everyone else, to “Dodo Music” as Charlie can only sit there and watch his ball.  Kenzie is better at catching her ball, but occasionally has trouble hurling it all the way up to the top of the pegboard (a problem Liz also shares).  Then there’s the time she hurls it TOO hard, and it flies off so she has to retrieve it.  In the end it’s Ben, the one guy to never make such a mistake, who takes the victory.  Quite impressive for the guy who said he was “Operating on two hours of sleep” pre-challenge.  He tries to make an emotional moment out of it, talking about how he was doubted by his peers in his young life, and it honestly feels forced.  I appreciate his struggle, but this late in the game, we don’t need a moment like this.  It isn’t QUITE as melodramatic as Xander’s flashback on “Survivor 41”, but it feels like it’s in the same ballpark.  

This, of course, means the non-strategic Ben must now make a strategic decision.  I’d say every possibility is on the table, given that I think Ben is someone dumb enough to put himself in fire.  After talking about how winning immunity “rocks” (of course), we get another good editing bit.  Charlie rises up in the background over Ben’s shoulder, and the music switches to somber really naturally.  Ben talks about how hard it is to send one of Kenzie or Charlie to the end, given his early bond with Charlie and how nice Kenzie’s been to him this game.  For all my snark, that emotion does hit home really well.  

Less emotional is his decision with Liz!  He flat out tells Liz she’s going in because her game is too strong, showing exactly how in-tune Ben is with the strategy this season.  Liz breaks down, complaining about how everyone is seeing her game, which I only bring up because earlier this season, she was complaining about how no one was seeing her game.  There’s just no satisfying some people.  Liz does quickly buck up and go off to practice fire, however.  She does poorly, but Kenzie and Charlie don’t seem to be doing that much better.  Ben leaves it up in the air which of them he’s going to put in fire to take down Liz, though my money’s on Kenzie, since she seemed more willing to go as a resume building opportunity than Charlie is.  

Of course, ideally Ben should put Charlie in fire, and then whoever he thinks can beat Charlie, in an effort to get out what could be perceived as his biggest threat at the end, but we all know Ben doesn’t think like that.  Instead, at Tribal Council, he picks Kenzie and Liz to go in.  The fire-making itself is pretty standard, but Probst makes it worse by inserting himself into the narrative.  He mentions how the show did not provide test kits this season.  He notes that Kenzie’s issues are due to pressure.  He describes the fire triangle to the players.  Look, Probst, I enjoy your commentary more than most, but this is REALLY unnecessary.  Also yes, we get it, you were in Scouts as a kid, you don’t need to emphasize that.  

Unsurprisingly, given her various ailments, Liz looses to Kenzie, something the jury is very obvious about preferring.  Proving once and for all that Liz has absolutely zero self-knowledge, she talks about how she played the best game of anyone left, and was 100% going to win at the end, even continuing the rant into her final words.  In case it wasn’t clear, I’m not sorry to see Liz go.  With Ben at the end as well, the outcome would have been obvious, in that whoever wasn’t Liz or Ben was going to win. Now, with both Charlie and Kenzie there, there is some mystery.  Don’t misunderstand, Liz was an INCREDIBLY fun character.  She could just be a little much at times.  

Our Day 26 breakfast is interspersed both with the players practicing their opening speeches (pretty cool to see them not be 100% confident), and our jurors trying to misdirect us on who they’ll vote for.  Honestly, the juror’s answers here are mostly generic stuff that tells us very little.  Like with “Survivor 45”, some of it seems legit (Tiffany favoring Kenzie, for example), while some of it is clearly them trying to follow production’s instruction to create doubt they might vote for someone they have no intention of voting for (Q implying that Ben has a shot, for example).  Nothing offensive, but not worth deep commentary on, especially when we have a good Final Tribal Council to get to.  

Ben starts off our opening speeches, and we quickly see just how out of the running he is.  He talks about how he didn’t play strategically and was out of the loop, TRYING to tie it back into his social game.  Kenzie does a much better job, highlighting her bonds with everyone while also noting that she was willing to make moves as needed.  Charlie lands in the middle, focussing more on the strategy side of things, but not selling the emotion.  Fair enough, though I’m surprised Charlie didn’t bring up his “Always have options” philosophy, since I’d argue it’s one of the stronger points of his gameplay this season.  

Then we come to the jury, and this is normally where I’d complain about the new jury format.  Not so this time because, well, the new jury format kind of died out this season.  Yeah, Probst introduces the jury to start things off, but then only really speaks to them in order to ask who wants to speak next.  Acting as a moderator, not interjecting his own philosophy into the game, which was my main critique of that format.  The other issue I had was that a lack of individual questions made the jury itself kind of mush together, but again, not so this season.  With the exception of Liz (and I might just have missed hers) everyone DID ask one question.  Really the only difference between this and the original jury format is that people don’t stand up to ask their question, and can interject on other’s questions.  Granted I still prefer the original jury format, rather than the fact-checking we have here, but if this was to be the compromise between jury formats, I’m 100% ok with it.  

All that said, while I enjoyed this jury, people talking during other’s questions did make some of them blend together, so I’m going to be hitting the jury highlights and lowlights rather than giving a blow-by-blow of each question.  First off, major props to Tiffany for starting us off, and cutting off ANY Taylor Swift references before they start, as well as the phrase” That rocks/does not rock”.  Nice to see the jury knows how to get on my good side, at least.  

We also learn that even being on the jury cannot stop Q (who I must point out is STILL wearing the “Q-Skirt”) from trying to rewrite reality.  Asked to name a move they themselves made in the game, Ben falters by, well, not having a move.  Kenzie tries to argue that she successfully navigated the split vote after the merge, citing Q and Tiffany’s competing interests as something difficult to navigate.  This, of course, leads Q to deny ever doing this (objectively false), and starts another min-riot before Tiffany gets it back under control.  Not to say Charlie fares much better.  In fact, you could argue he did more for Kenzie than she did for herself!  Charlie tries to claim credit for the Hunter vote.  Reasonable enough, but unfortunately, Hunter is on the jury, and confirms that it was Kenzie that made him feel comfortable, thereby giving her credit for his ouster.  

Tevin asks how everyone used someone else on the jury to further their game.  Kenzie names Q once again, while Charlie gives a masterful answer in saying he used Tevin himself, noting the rift between him and Soda made him a good shield.  Normally a solid answer, but it looks like Tevin’s not buying it.  Still better than Ben who, again, doesn’t really have any sort of good answer.  The question he does best on is Q’s, who wants to know how the million dollars will change their lives.  Ben notes all the communities he’d like to help in South Florida, a nice sentiment that comes across as genuine from him.  Kenzie notes that she’ll be using the money for herself, giving her security as a small business owner.  Charlie’s is the weakest, giving some blather about “family”.  Not terrible, but Ben and Kenzie are hard acts to follow on this question.  For the final highlight, Soda asks everyone to summarize their game in 30 seconds or less, something only Kenzie is able to do successfully.  Charlie starts making some good points, but comes in a bit over the 30 second mark, preventing him from tying everything together.  And Ben’s still warming up when his 30 seconds are up.  

We do hear closing arguments from everyone this time, and it’s here where Charlie finally bring up his “Keep options open” argument I think he should have emphasized more.  And, right at the end, Ben breaks Tiffany’s “rocks” moratorium.  A funny note to cap the season on.  

Charlie’s argument was good, but it was too little, too late.  Like “Survivor 45” it was a close 5-3 vote, but once again, the woman pulls it out.  Kenzie is our victor, and I personally am THRILLED!  All due respect to Charlie, he played a good game, and arguably was more in the strategic driver’s seat than Kenzie.  He may have been perceived as Maria’s lapdog, but at lest he was making decisions.  Very few of Kenzie’s plans got carried out, and if they were, it was sometimes without her knowledge, like the Tiffany blindside.  But that said, he almost played TOO good of a game.  I’ve compared this to “Survivor Gabon” a number of times, and I stand by that comparison.  Charlie played a neat, normal game, which would contrast horribly with the overall chaotic season this ended up being.  It would be like if Charlie Herschel had won “Survivor Gabon”.  You could understand why and respect the win, but on a season like that, it wouldn’t be satisfying.  

Not to say that Kenzie was un-strategic, far from it.  She made excellent use of her relationships in the game, and schemed enough that, even if she didn’t succeed, she was perceived as a player worthy of respect.  Bhanu building her up on his journey probably helped.  As to how she fits the chaos of the season?  Well, while she usually played with her head, she could be petty and vindictive when slighted (see how she treated Q after he turned on her).  Granted, she kept that mostly in confessional, but that’s to her credit as a player.  And hey, the player dubbed “Mermaid-Dragon” is a fitting type of person to win an out-there season like this.  

All that said, I actually want to make a different comparison.  The season as a whole may be the New Era “Survivor Gabon”, but this Final Tribal, to me, is “Survivor Kaoh Rong” done right.  The final three was effectively a duel between our more strategic player who as the narrator of the season (Aubry/Charlie) versus the person who may not have had as much control, but had a simple narrative the jury could believe, and was well-connected with them socially (Michele/Kenzie).  And once again, the social player wins, re-emphasizing the social game as being paramount on this show.  Where I think this season succeeds, where Kaoh Rong fails, is that it does a better job balancing these two finalists.  Unlike Aubry, Charlie isn’t seen as the MAIN strategic driving force of the season, merely a very good player who happened to control votes near the end, so his game doesn’t come across quite as unbeatable.  Conversely, we got more emphasis on Kenzie’s relationships, making her seem more of an equal in that regard than Michele seemed to Aubry.  Granted, we probably didn’t need MULTIPLE scenes of Kenzie comforting Ben following his night terrors, but the point still stands.  Plus, this season didn’t hide key relationships Kenzie made that impacted the end of the season.  Contrast with Michele, where you’d be forgiven for thinking she and Cydney didn’t speak until the merge, despite that ACTUALLY being the driving force later on, rather than the Cydney/Aubry relationship.  

So yes, this season does a lot of good, and I thoroughly enjoyed it.  The same cannot be said for the after show, which is easily one of, if not the, worst of the New Era.  With the possible exception of Mike Turner (“Survivor 42”) no contestant has ever looked more defeated at the end than Charlie, a fact Probst notes, and talks about how rough it must be.  If you know it’s going to be hard on him, Probst, THEN WHY DON’T YOU GIVE THEM SOME TIME TO PROCESS BEFORE JUMPING STRAIGHT INTO A REUNION?!  LET THEM GRIEVE, FOR CORN’S SAKE!  

Apart from that gripe, most of the rest of the after show is fine, though a bit rushed.  We hit most of the points you’d expect.  Who voted for who, everyone going out with idols in their pockets, that sort of thing.  The one good bit I’d say was in there was Probst talking about how several terms have entered the “Survivor” lexicon from this season alone, leading to montage of key quotes past.  And there’s some deep cuts, like Sandra’s “I can get loud too!” from “Survivor Pearl Islands”, and Sue’s “Rats and Snakes” speech all the way back from “Survivor Borneo”.  Famous, to be sure, but that was over 20 years ago now.  I’m impressed the show was willing to make that callback.  About the only major ommission is “She died, dude.” from the Dead Grandma Lie, in my view.

And make no mistake, there are several things from this season that will already be sticking around for years to come in this community.  “Several”.  “BIG MISTAKE”. “Christmas is Cancelled”.  To a lesser extent, even “Q-Skirt”, “That does/does not rock”, and a reinvigoration of Applebee’s memes.  And that’s really the thing about this season: In an era known for everything blending together due to a similar format, this season stands out.  Lots of contestants who weren’t self-aware.  Things getting really personal without turning full-on ugly.  Random, crazy tangents.  You can’t mistake this for any other season, and that’s why it’s one of the greats.  Low end of greats for me (again, just below “Survivor Gabon”) due to it not going quite as far as it could, but still a really fun ride.  Yes, it cannot be denied that this season had an INCREDIBLY slow start, but given what came more towards the end, I’d say it was worth it.  

Will “Survivor 47” be the same level of fun?  Eh, I hope so, but it’s kind of hard to tell.  The cast didn’t seem bad from what we saw, just kind of generic.  Though I will admit a fondness for the guy who said his only camping experience was once in Cub Scouts, which he left early due to throwing up.  I sympathize.  

Well, with discussion of the season out of the way, let’s look back at my pre-season predictions, and see where I went right and I went wrong.  

Jem-Wrong.  Did not see her overplaying that much at all.  

Ben-Wrong.  Much more sociable, and much more longer-lived than I would have anticipated.  

Jess-She was a little more socially awkward than I predicted, but I did say she’d be out pre-merge for costing a challenge, so I’ll give myself this one.  

Bhanu-Not exactly the first out, and a messier player than I’d have guessed.  Still, I’d say I was at least somewhat close here.  Not a full on “right”, but closer to right than wrong.  

Kenzie-I’ll give myself Kenzie.  I said she was close to being a winner pick and, well, she won.  

Charlie-Wrong.  Much less nerdy and much more longer-lived than I guessed.  

Liz-Wrong.  Somehow even bigger of a personality than I anticipated, yet also much longer lived.  Blame Hunter.  

Jelinsky-Wrong, but in all fairness, who could predict Jelinsky?  

Maria-Spot on, for once.  Nailed her placement, and the reason why she’d go.  

Hunter-Wrong.  His physical game was much better than it looked, and the rest of his game, much worse.  

Moriah-She left a bit earlier than I anticipated, but I think I got her personality pretty well.  

Q-Wrong, but again, like with Jelinsky, who could have predicted anything about this guy?  Attempting to do so is a fool’s errand.  

Soda-Wrong.  I was somewhat close on her time in the game, but she was much more of a force to be reckoned with than I gave her credit for.  

Randen-Wrong, but then again, evacuations are much harder to anticipate.  

Tiffany-Wrong.  She had much more game than I thought she would.  And I’m all the happier for it.  

Tevin-Wrong.  This is the one I feel worst about.  Dude ended up being a favorite of mine this season, with a distinctive style and charm out the wazoo.  He may have lasted about as long as I thought he would, but I still give myself the loss on this one.  Not sure why I thought he’d be annoying.  It think it was his laugh in the preview.  I like everything about Tevin but his laugh.  

Venus-Right on personality, wrong on time in the game.  

Tim-Eh, kind of right.  I think I was a bit down on his chances, but he lasted about the length I thought he would, and certainly wasn’t a strategic powerhouse.  

And that about wraps up this season.  Like I said, definitely one of the greats.  Between this and my love for “Survivor 45”, we’re on a good trajectory I hope the show can keep up.  In the meantime, as we enter the off-season, keep on the lookout for more content from me.  We’ll certainly see the return of “Survivor What-Ifs?” and maybe a few other old series if I feel up to it.  

Final thing to say about this season: I’ll be driving near Charlotte NC tomorrow.  I’d better see a billboard celebrating Kenzie as I pass by.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor MGX” Episode 12: Jonathan Penner Lives

Although he just BARELY didn’t make my “Favorite Contestants” list I did at the end of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, it cannot be denied that Jonathan Penner (“Survivor Cook Islands”) is one of my all-time favorite players, and it’s entirely for the snark factor. Probst LOVES to pour salt in wounds during his challenge commentary, but few have the guts to give it right back to him. Penner is one of the few that does it, and that’s why I love him so. And while no one can really come close, tonight we had what appeared to be something of a second coming of snark. PRAISE BE TO PENNER! THE LORD IS RISEN INDEED!

As to our first Penner imposter, why, he’s getting congratulated at the outcome of the past episode’s Tribal Council. Yes, Will is getting his back patted by the entire cast, which really is what he wanted all along, and so everyone gives it to him. True, Adam kind of stole his thunder by playing his idol, but there’s also the point to be made of how pointless Adam’s idol play was, and as we’ll discuss later, Will does do a good job of bringing that up. For now, though, people like to make out that his move was bigger than it was, in order to appease Will. Will, for his part, says that this gives him more power in the decision making, and that he can flip-flop between alliances. I’ll admit that he does have more power than he had before (though that’s not saying much), but I have to disagree with Will’s assessment of his position. It’s definitely a desirable one, and Will is clearly trying to get there. The trouble is that the “swing vote” position, by and large, isn’t one you work your way into. True, it’s possible to do, and certainly you can maneuver yourself to a place where it’s easier to become the swing vote, but by and large, becoming the swing vote is something you fall into, not something you obtain.

Case in point, sunrise reveals that our true swing vote is Adam, who is brought in by Bret and Sunday to discuss getting rid of Jay, David, and Will, not necessarily in that order. Adam pretty much agrees, which is good for him. The guy’s done a lot to redeem himself, and I’d even go so far as to say he has a shot at winning again, but it’s a tough battle. Jay and David are his biggest threats to beat him in the end, David because he’s got a similar story arc to Adam, while having pissed fewer people off, and Jay because of all his friends on the jury. At this point, Michelle and Taylor love him, and I don’t see Chris or Jessica having anything bad to say about him. Really, Zeke is the only one who probably isn’t at least a potential Jay vote, and that’s only one vote. Pretty big threat. So, why would Will be good to put in the mix? Well, for all that Will has to be given the “swing vote” status, the fact that he’s trying to get there on his own makes him an alternative to Adam, which makes him a threat to Adam’s place in the game. Why Bret and Sunday are against him, I’m not sure, but since they’re pretty well on the bottom, I guess they’ll say anything to find an alliance.

The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, but the same does not apply to the challenge department of “Survivor” because despite having challenges that have ranged from “meh” to “please make it stop” pretty much all season, we’ve got a KICK-ASS immunity challenge this time around. Each player has a set of ten disks. They must stack these disks on a pole, as many at a time as they like, and work their way through a series of obstacles, which range from difficult to “think of the children!”. Of particular note is one where you switch to a horizontal hold and have to maneuver your pole through a maze, while dodging trip wires with your feet. Once all the disks make it to the end, you roll them into a slot, with the first person to snag all ten in the slot winning immunity. While this bears a resemblance to challenges from “Survivor Blood vs. Water” and “Survivor Worlds Apart”, it manages to feel new, and it’s certainly difficult. Again, turning the pole horizontal at one point really shakes things up, and makes for a fun, but difficult, challenge. Were I to have one criticism, I would say that the grand finale of it all (the rolling of the disks) is maybe not as exciting as the early parts, but even that ends up looking pretty cool with disks flying every which way.

Sadly, for all the coolness of the challenge, we do lose some of the uncertainty we’ve had in a lot of challenges this season, as Jay, Bret, and David have the lead pretty much the entire time, with Jay ultimately and predictably winning. But this is made up for by the aforementioned rebirth of Jonathan Penner. You see, poor Will cannot even get over the first obstacle (a balance beam) for the life of him. This in and of itself is frustrating, but of course Probst puts in his two cents. It’s pretty generic confessionals for Probst, but Will eventually has enough, and responds with a deadpan “Thank you, Jeff.” It’s time like these that I regret that I do a blog and not a vlog, because it’s difficult to convey what exactly makes this so funny. On the surface, it’s a simple line, but the deadpan yet frustrated way Will responds just makes it hilarious. Hell, he even SOUNDS a little bit like the sainted Penner when saying it. Will has a pretty distinct voice, so just imagine him saying that line while sounding ticked off. That, right there, is hilarious.

As mentioned, Jay wins, and so we come down to the debate of “David vs. Will” The Bret-Sunday-Adam alliance is more than a little peeved that Jay won, as he was their target, but it seems like David is up next, as even Will suggests it. Adam, however, is worried about Will’s power, and Bret is happy to go along with it, mainly because it would give him and Sunday actual power rather than just being spared as non-threats. Adam brings up the idea to Hannah, who’s somewhat more reluctant, as she feels that she owes Will for flipping last episode, but also admits that she owes David for going to rocks the episode before, and if you’re thinking that this is the weakest misdirection since “Survivor Redemption Island” then congratulations, you’ve seen this show before! Yeah, for all that this season has been fairly unpredictable since the swap, this episode in general, and this first half in particular, really dropped the ball on this one. At no point do I think David is going home. Will has been built up as too much of a threat, and Adam’s rise to power too heavily foreshadowed for it not to be him going.

Sad to say, but Tribal Council really does nothing to help add to the mystery. It’s pretty much all generic strategic sound bytes, so let’s skip to the obvious outcome. Will goes home, with about the only surprise being that Adam was able to swing David and Ken, though that surprise is mitigated when you realize that David had no other logical play, and did you really think Ken would vote against David. No, Will is gone, and it’s both the right move strategically for everyone except Jay, and as a view, it’s no real loss either. Don’t get me wrong, Will stepped it up last episode, and he seems like a likable enough kid, but compared to these other players (and Sunday), he didn’t bring a whole lot to the table. No, scratch that, he brought just enough, and left before we were full of him. Time enough to enjoy him, but not enough to make ourselves sick. Yes, I AM still in a Thanksgiving frame of mind, thank you very much. Will may not have been the most memorable player in “Survivor” history, but I don’t think he was that much of a waste of space in the end, and I’m glad he was there.

But no, this is not a surprisingly short and boring episode, but rather, once again, two episodes crammed into one, though since each half covers a day of game time, we keep it to an hour by basically following the structure of Fallout from previous Tribal Council-Immunity Challenge-Strategizing-Tribal Council. Our fallout, naturally, is Jay being pissed off, though the guy takes it in his stride, referring to himself as the “black plague” of “Survivor”, as his allies tend to die. Well, can’t fault his logic there. Adam goes off to talk with him, and you’d expect this to make a bad situation worse, but it seems Adam has FINALLY learned how to console people he just betrayed. After an apology for lying, Adam gets back on the anti-David track, which unsurprisingly works better than repeatedly emphasizing the lying part. Jay, for his part, talks about how Adam and he have a certain mutual respect for each other, even though they continue to work against one another. It’s an odd relationship, but it’s also another aspect that makes me believe Adam is not quite as out of the game as his early post-merge performance would indicate.

As for our second immunity challenge, it’s got a tough act to follow. I mean, I pretty much heaped nothing but praise on it since the beginning, so what could possibly top that?

YOU’RE GOING TO PLAY “PLINKO” FOR UP TO $50,000!

Actually, that’s not too far off. Evidently deciding that the physical portions of challenges really were pointless if you put a puzzle at the end, the challenge department just skipped to the puzzle outright. But that wasn’t challenging enough, so they added a really cool hurdle. Before starting the puzzle, everyone has to shoot a ball up a ramp and into effectively a “Plinko” board. Players can only work on the puzzle as long as their ball is in the “Plinko” machine. If they catch it before it hits a guard rail, they can throw it back up the ramp and keep going. If they miss, they have to stop and wait while it rolls down a long ramp, and they endure the agony of Probst rubbing in their near misses. I should dislike this challenge for how simple the puzzle is, but I can’t help but enjoy that sadistic twist of the “Plinko” machine. Yeah. “Plinko”=sadistic. Who would have thought? But as Probst points out, this divides your attention, making the puzzle harder, and adds something of a ticking clock to the whole thing. Me likey.

We get another relatively back and forth challenge, and even another Penner moment. David and Ken are the two that end up pulling away. Probst shows his favoritism and comments on how far ahead David is, only to have Ken do his best little kid impression and go “No he’s not!” And true, Ken does have all his pieces together, but in the wrong order. Everyone keeps going, and here’s where we get a fascinating bit of strategy: Adam helps Ken. Yes, taking a piece from the book of Laura Morett (“Survivor Samoa”), Adam realizes that he REALLY doesn’t want David winning, and seeing as he’s not really in it, takes his time and watches Ken’s board for him, warning him when his ball is close to falling. While it does have the same drawback as Michaela’s helping during a challenge a ways back, in that it blatantly reveals your game, I think it’s no secret that David’s a target, and so preventing him from winning immunity is going to be pretty universally considered a good thing. Why Jay gives him a “What the hell?” look as Jay was pretty much out of it at this point, I’m not sure, especially as Jay was one of the biggest anti-David advocates. David, I could understand.

Really, though, the biggest mystery is why David and co. still TRUST Adam after that display. When we delve into strategy talk, and imminent split-vote talk, it’s all about “keeping the solid four” from Hannah, David, and Ken, with Adam being that fourth. WHY? Ok, I get it a bit from Hannah, but it’s clear that it’s not in David and Ken’s best interest to keep Adam around if he’s that blatantly working against them.

This also shows why Adam NEEDS to keep Bret and Sunday around. For all my snark, having a solid foursome this late in the game is a VERY good way to get to the end, and it’s a pretty sweet deal. Unless you’re number four in that scenario. Adam is clearly number four, so he needs a backup scenario. That means he NEEDS Bret and Sunday around to be his backup. Despite his newfound “brohood” with Jay, really Adam needs to get rid of Jay tonight, so he and Hannah have the run of which pair to side with. Which is what he tries to do. Hannah, however, is too on board with the David and Ken thing, and so proposes throwing one vote on Jay (in the hopes that he plays his idol), and three on Sunday. Why Sunday? Well, she IS the most likely to be taken to the end, as she hasn’t had the chance to really do much game playing. This, therefore, limits the options of flippers like Adam, and frees up a spot for someone else. The logic makes sense for David and Ken, especially as David would be a target otherwise, but I really don’t get Hannah. She, like Adam, benefits from the freedom of choice offered by keeping both Bret and Sunday around. I get that she probably is closer with David than with Bret and Sunday (as the former seems most similar to her), and so having David be gone might not be good for her, but ultimately, Hannah’s tightest alliance needs to be with Adam if she wants any hope of success. I agree with cutting him out at the foursome, as he could beat her, and I don’t see David and Ken splitting up, but then you just get beat by David or Ken. Against Bret and Sunday, her odds are better.

At the very least, this plan is so convoluted that it does leave us with a lot of mystery about the outcome. Perhaps we ought to clarify strategy a bit more. No? All right, I guess we can get more of the bro-down. Adam tries to convince Jay to play his idol, to which Jay responds with about the same amount of snark as when Amanda Kimmel tried the same trick on Parvati Shallow on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”. This quickly devolves into another sobfest, as Adam, full of melodrama, decides to tell Jay something he’s told no one else in this game! Will it be a genuine revelation that turns the whole game on its head, or will it be his mom again?

Sure enough, it’s Adam’s mom and at the risk of sounding like a heartless bastard, it’s really not needed. Don’t get me wrong: the situation with Adam’s mom is tragic, and I don’t begrudge him his emotions. I DO begrudge the editors needing to hit us with this plot point again. We get it. It’s tragic. You don’t need to remind us again. The first time, during the pre-merge, it fit in organically, and it’s a plot point we hadn’t heard at that point. The second time, at the family reward challenge, it fit with the theme of family, and it had been a while since it was brought up, so we were ok with it. But now, just one episode later, it just feels played out. We do get to hear about JAY’S mom’s situation, and as this is the first we’ve heard of it, it’s more impactful. The two have a good manly cry as I find that one upside to the scene.

It seems that the coolness of the immunity challenge is inversely proportional to the coolness of Tribal Council, as once again, it’s generic strategy talk, though I will give this one an edge over the first one for one particular exchange. Probst asks Jay about threats in the game, and Jay makes a comment about people with friends being the real threats, rather than one guy with an idol. Clearly trying to deflect attention away from himself. Probst then brilliantly asks Bret to clarify what Jay means, to which Bret responds “What he means is he wishes he was wearing that necklace tonight.” Bam. Perfect comeback. All it needed was a mike drop.

Speaking of Jay, he does ultimately play his idol tonight, which I’d probably have done were I in his shoes, especially as we’re coming down to the point where it can’t be played anymore. However, once again, it’s a wasted idol, as Adam sided against his own best interests and voted Sunday out. Ok, I’ll give credit that I didn’t see this coming, as while a Sunday exit was foreshadowed, I didn’t feel like she got enough screen time to merit an exit. Plus, except for David and Ken, her exit would be a dumb move for everyone, and people have generally done the smart things this season. As to how I feel about her exit, it’s difficult to say. From an objective standpoint, I really can’t be too sorry. Out of all the people left, she really brought the least to the game (Ken, at least, caught the occasional octopus), and so it’s better to trim the fat, so to speak, going into the finale. But I’m not sure how much of that edit is to blame on Sunday being boring or on the editors. Maybe I’m just biased in favor of “older ladies” on “Survivor”, but as I’ve mentioned a couple times, I’ve heard bits from Sunday that indicate to me that she had a lot more going on than she really let on, or that we got to see. I’m sad for the lost potential, but for what we got, probably the best exit from a viewer perspective.

While this episode wasn’t BAD, per se, it doesn’t live up to the general quality of post-merge episodes. While the challenges were good, and the second half definitely superior to the first half, we got uninteresting and generally predictable exits, and just kind of generic gameplay. I can’t hate on this episode, but I can certainly hope that the finale will be a bloodbath.

Speaking of which, it’s time for the traditional ranking of who’s most likely to win, should they make Final Tribal Council.

JAY-One could argue that his resume is a bit on the weaker side, but Jay’s got JUST ENOUGH smarts that I think he could parlay his immunity wins into seeming like points on a resume. Add onto that all his friends on the jury, and potential dislike of flip-floppers, and having Jay in the end is jury suicide for most everybody.

DAVID-In terms of who has the strongest resume of those left, David is the clear winner. As was pointed out in this episode, his personal growth plus strategic excellence make him tough to go up against. I put him below Jay only because of the potential of a bitter jury who doesn’t appreciate neurotic people could ruin everything, but as has been brought up time and again, David is the person to watch.

ADAM-Perhaps my personal bias, but Adam’s stock just keeps rising and rising. Granted, his own allies still don’t trust him, but he seems to have gotten over the personal dislike so many had for him, and some good strategic showing late game, plus the potential of his mom’s cancer story could make him a threat to get votes.

BRET-I’m surprised he made it this high, but Bret is still a contender at this point. He really doesn’t have victories to his name, but he does have an underdog status, and as we saw on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, that can count for a lot. Bret’s just likable enough that if he makes it to the end and acquits himself well, he could just run away with this.

KEN-Had this list been done two episodes ago, Ken would have been above Adam. He’s handsome, likable, and hasn’t really gotten much egg on his face. True, his resume does follow David’s closely, but if David’s out of the game, then Ken can take all the credit he wants. The trouble is his whole “truth test” with Will from last episode. That was a pretty public humiliation for him, and if the jury has any respect for strategy, he’s pretty well doomed after that. HIs general likability COULD pull him through, but circumstances have to happen just so.

HANNAH-I really hate to be down on the one lady of “Survivor” left in the game, but I don’t see much of a road to victory for Hannah. If she does make Final Tribal Council, I see the jury pulling an Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”), on her, and bashing her for playing with her heart rather than her head. While she DOES have some strategic claims to her name, I don’t think they’ve been big enough to be noticed, and most of the people she wants to get near the end with can take those claims as their own. I don’t want to say Hannah’s COMPLETELY out of the running, but again, I don’t see much of a path to victory for her.

Perhaps this is like theater, where a bad dress rehearsal makes for a good show. See you at the finale!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.