Idol Speculation: “Survivor Cambodia” Episode 12: Outwit, Outplay, Outlast, OutFox’d

The only way this blog can really start off is with an apology. As you might expect, it’s for the unexpected lateness of this blog. As my frequent readers will know, I pride myself on my punctuality with these posts, so this one being later than usual is somewhat starting. Sad to say, I’m feeling a bit under the weather, and so don’t think I can really do the blog in full at my usual time. I’ll admit, it’s pretty pathetic to say “I’m feeling too ill to do a blog.”, but it does take a lot of brainpower, and I just don’t have that right now. I’ll write as much as I can before I have to crash, and I’ll be sure to make a note of where I have to break for the evening, to give you an idea of where my thoughts may be slightly skewed. I also need to apologize for something else that’s quickly become a staple of the blog this season:

MATT’S MESS-UP!

A couple of pretty obvious ones this time. When describing the puzzle of last episode, I mentioned that it was tricky because one had to spell the word “Nutrition” backwards. I was wrong. You had to spell “Nourishment” backwards, which I would say is even harder and more obscure than “Nutrition”, so kudos there. just a slip of synapses, I guess. My other fault is in how fast I went through the last Tribal Council. Not to say that I really skipped over the strategic points, but I failed to acknowledge the awesomeness that was the shot of Spencer’s silhouette when voting. That shot sent chills down my spine. They need to do shots like that more often.

Certainly Orkun wishes they had some shots as they return from Tribal Council. There’s been very little celebrating at the expense of others this season (one of the reasons I think it’s a cut above most other seasons), but here things go a bit in that direction. Nothing overly much, but the return to camp seems more jovial than usual. Though that may be because, as Kelley correctly points out, they now all have a decent shot at winning immunity.

Not all is at peace, though. Tasha got a mystery vote last night, and it’s quickly figured out that it was Keith. Speculation from the outside was that Keith knew about the vote, but didn’t want to vote out his friend St. Joe, and so threw a vote Tasha’s way. At worst, just a sentimental move, but at best, a pretty subtle way to win over jury votes. I’ll admit, even I bought into this. I’m not the biggest Keith fan in the world, but I’d say he’s capable of at least THAT much strategic thought. I mean, he’s not Ralph Kaiser (“Survivor Redemption Island”) or anything. Yep, I was all prepared to give Keith credit here. Too bad he completely throws that out the window, wondering why he wasn’t let into the loop. He doesn’t seem too hurt about it, but it’s a shame to see that no, Keith really is that out of it.

Though, perhaps Keith’s lack of hurt is because Tasha is siphoning it all. Tasha is EXTREMELY upset that Keith voted for her, to the point of wanting to vote Keith out next. I can’t criticize this move too much, since it DOES fit in with the women’s alliance, which I said before is probably the better way for Tasha to go at this point. However, Tasha, despite arguably being better at challenges than anyone left (as far as track record goes), Keith is nowhere near as big of a threat as Jeremy or Spencer are, by virtue of not being able to really put a coherent strategy together. I’m not saying Tasha should take a throwaway vote lying down, but this seems a bit extreme. This is what I mean when I say she’s kind of Andrew Savage (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) lite. She doesn’t go in for personal attacks against people who DARE to move against her, but she’s not very quiet about it. Better to play things subtly and close to the chest in these scenarios, rather than go on the warpath against your betrayer. Take a lesson from the book of Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”), and wait for the proper time for your revenge, rather than seek it immediately.

Speaking of “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, all three people voted on from that season are still around! Remember that? Jeremy, Kelley, and Keith sure do! In fact, they’re shouting it in front of everybody! If that doesn’t pile on the “Royally Screwed” for one of the three (presumably Keith), I don’t know what does. Still, even if it amounts to nothing (which is what will happen), it does bring up a good point. I’m normally not one for talking about preseason talk from the contestants outside of my “Cast Assessment” blogs, but it bears mentioning here. One of the big themes a lot of people talked about preseason was “Splitting up the ‘Survivor Cagayan’ group.” After all, while fractious, they did have four people, more than any other season, and could form a secret voting block. However, in targeting the “Cagayan 4”, people may have neglected the “San Juan del Sur 3” Almost as many people, and with less bad blood between them than those from “Survivor Cagayan”. Given Jeremy’s “Anti-Girl Alliance” talk, I doubt that’s what’s actually happening, but it’s something to consider.

After more of the aforementioned “Anti-Girl Alliance” talk between Jeremy and Spencer, we head to our reward challenge, courtesy of “Survivor San Juan del Sur”. Everyone has to unwind some rope from a frame, being tied to the end of said rope. Once they believe they’ve unwound enough rope, they must construct and cross a bridge before using beanbags to knock blocks off of a table. The first person to clear their table wins a trip to the temple where we had our show opener, as well as a blessing from the monks, and a feast. Pretty sweet reward, all things considered, and not a half-bad challenge to boot. Sure, I think the block-knocking thing is pretty lame, and I do wish the bridge was a puzzle bridge rather than sticking generic sticks in generic slots, but I like the mental element with unspooling the rope. Not to say that it’s a particularly hard thing to do (unless you’re Abi-Maria), but there’s an element of timing to it. You want to leave as quickly as you can, so as to get a lead on your opponents, but not so early that you don’t have enough rope, and lose time needing to unspool more. It’s an interesting element, and one that saves this challenge for me.

Keith won the challenge on “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, and history repeats here as he wins it again. Unlike some, however, I don’t think this is a result of Keith’s impressive physical strength. Keith’s pretty decent in that area, to be sure, and he was one of the frontrunners, but it’s not as though he had a commanding lead the entire time. Keith was just the only one who made absolutely sure he had enough rope before heading out. Still impressive, just in a different way than you might think.

Keith gets to take two people with him on his reward, and he picks Kelley and Spencer, which I really can’t argue with. Keith’s not really in a position to curry favor with one alliance or another, so might as well take a key player in both and remove suspicion of alliance forming. Not that this strategy works, but the theory behind it is good. Keith’s justification, however, is that Kelley took him on reward last time, so he’s returning the favor (fair), and that, somehow, Spencer’s loved one gave him less that Jeremy’s or Tasha’s, which I would say isn’t fair. I’m not a huge fan of putting value judgements on how important a loved one is, nor am I a fan of it here, though I cut Keith a bit of slack since unlike some, I don’t think it comes from a place of malice. Kelley passes it off as an example of “Keith Logic”, and frankly I’m surprised that doesn’t become a hashtag.

Despite Keith picking people you’d think would get rid of alliance-forming suspicion, their names still get thrown around back at camp, mostly because Tasha is still on the warpath. The fair point is also brought up that with St. Joe out of the mix, Keith is now a threat to win challenges. Tasha’s the ringleader, of course, and Kimmi and Abi-Maria are definitely on board, Abi-Maria relishing in the villainousness of it all. Jeremy’s definitely open to the idea, but everyone can tell he’s a little reluctant. Jeremy thinks, not unfairly, that Keith may be a number in his corner, and he’s still scared of a women’s alliance. Not an unreasonable fear, especially since I’d say Keith might be a good asset for Jeremy, but Jeremy goes a bit far in saying that he wishes he HADN’T voted St. Joe out last time. I get that the women’s alliance is a threat, but that’s too big a sacrifice to cripple a potential counter-alliance. Tasha, for her part, is bound and determined that Keith go, saying that it’s her time to make a move, and that if Jeremy won’t go, she’ll find others to go with instead. You know, I’m starting to see a pattern developing on this season. Everyone wants to make “their move”, something they can point to and say that they and only they engineered. Granted, that’s true on every season, but it seems really pronounced here. This fixed focus on one’s move, though, is also setting up the downfall of a lot of people. People need to make moves for themselves, sure, but they need to wait for the right time for it to happen organically. Those who try and force a move on a situation where it’s not needed often meet their downfall as a result, or have their time game significantly shorted because of it, Stephen’s feud against St. Joe being a prime example. Granted, time’s running out to make a move, and while Tasha doesn’t exactly have NO resume, she doesn’t really have anything that stands out (unless you count voting Kass out).

At first, it looks like we won’t get any strategy on this reward, but just a lot of nice, non-gameplay scenes. True, Spencer’s talk about how far he’s come is a bit forced, but it’s a lot of fun just to watch the ceremony, and hear Keith make “Indiana Jones” quips. But eventually, the game must come again. Sure enough, the three discuss a final three possibility, which again, isn’t terrible. Keith probably can’t win in that scenario, but then again, I have a hard time imagining a scenario this season in which Keith CAN win, so I suppose it’s as good as any. I don’t see Spencer or Kelley wanting to go up against the other, since I’d say those two have the strongest resumes out of anyone there, but on the other hand, they talk about adding Abi-Maria as the fourth, and since she’s the only person less likely to win than Keith, it’s possible either Spencer or Kelley plans to betray the other. One could argue that Spencer’s choice means very little, since he’s in a similar situation if he goes with Jeremy, Tasha, and Kimmi, with Jeremy being someone Spencer probably doesn’t want to face, but each could betray the other and take Tasha and Kimmi to the end, except that I’d say Tasha and Kimmi overall have better resumes than either Keith or Abi-Maria, so there’s still some incentive for the reward final three scenario. The three debate who to get out first, Jeremy being their primary target, but all agree that that’s what will be expected, in terms of idol playing. Guess Jeremy wasn’t so good at hiding that idol after all. The three correctly surmise that, after Jeremy, Tasha is the biggest threat, and so agree to go for her first. Not a bad move, except for the fact that after getting rid of Tasha, Jeremy still has a Tribal Council in which he can play his idol, and now he’s tipped off to the fact that you’re against him. Better to take the risk and blindside him now, I say. Can’t fault their logic, though. Much though I hate to make positive comparisons to “Survivor Fiji”, it’s very reminiscent of the brilliant move of getting out Edgardo of the four horsemen, since no one would see it coming.

Remember all that single-mindedness I was talking about from Tasha earlier? Yeah, that’s out the window. Tasha realizes that Abi-Maria might not be the strongest ally, and so perhaps it’s in their best interest to get her out, since she’s a potential swing vote. I’m all for flexibility in the game, and I’m certainly grateful that Tasha’s confessionals aren’t going to be super repetitive this episode, but her choices make no sense. She swings from the second worst person to vote out to the worst person to vote out, targeting people who really shouldn’t be targets. I’ll go into her logic later, as it DOES have consistence, but suffice to say, it’s not what I would call a good strategy to win the game. It makes for exciting tv, and I’m happy to see it, but in addition to voting out goats, Tasha is now destroying the possibility of a women’s alliance, which, need I reiterate, is her best option.

We WOULD head over to the immunity challenge, but I’m tired, and need to head over to bed. Here endeth the part of the blog written immediately after the episode. See you guys tomorrow (or today, as the case may be).

So, as I was saying, we head off to our promised immunity challenge. It’s a pretty standard water obstacle course, with people running across various platforms and beams to retrieve something (in this case a key), out in the water, then swim back and solve a puzzle, with the first puzzle solved winning immunity. The idea of a water obstacle course is pretty old by “Survivor” standards. Elements of it can be traced all the way back to “Survivor Borneo”. Personally, though, I consider “Survivor Vanuatu” the birthplace of this particular variation on the challenge, since that was the season to have climbing over local boats as the obstacle. This seems strange, as no one from “Survivor Vanuatu” was on this season, or even eligible to be on this season. So, how does this relate to “Second Chances”? the answer comes in the puzzle. During the first episode of “Survivor Worlds Apart”, each tribe had a choice to solve one of three puzzles. The one with the fewest pieces, basically a tangram puzzle that would make a square when solved, was not chosen. It gets reused here, giving IT its second chance, as Probst puts it. Cheesy? Yes, absolutely, but cheesy in that good, “Survivor” kind of way. If you’re going to bring back something that never got used or finished (like the blindfolded ball-rolling challenge on “Survivor Samoa” that got finished only on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”), it’s best to do it on one of these all-star type seasons. It just feels right that “Survivor” history should be rounded out with “Survivor” alums.

It becomes clear pretty quickly that this isn’t going to be much of a contest for immunity, at least for the most. Jeremy and Spencer are far and away the heads of the pack, and really the only ones in the running for immunity. Spencer is slightly faster than Jeremy, but also a bit more reckless, and so takes a couple of pretty hard falls that are painful just to watch. Jeremy, in contrast, takes things very steadily, and never slips up once. As a result, he gets back to his puzzle station with a slight lead over Spencer, not that it matters. Jeremy’s a great guy in many ways, but he’s never shown himself as a puzzle champ. Spencer, while maybe not a puzzle CHAMP, is still pretty damn good at the things, and solves his puzzle in about 15 seconds, according to Probst. I still like this challenge, but I’ll admit a lot of the tension was gone from it. Part of that was due to just how far ahead Jeremy and Spencer were, but I also suspect that the producers were counting on the puzzle to make things exciting. When Spencer just whizzes through it, it loses a little something. Props to Spencer, as it’s not an easy puzzle, but it kind of leaves the challenge feeling a back lacking. Maybe if they’d had to run the course multiple times and retrieves multiple keys, it might have been something greater. Then again, given what we’re about to discuss, it’s probably for the best that they DIDN’T do that.

Everybody was behind Jeremy and Spencer to some degree, but Tasha was WAY behind. If this strikes you as odd, since she’s usually something of a force in challenges, well, you’d be correct. My read on the situation is that after 35 days out there, Tasha is tired, and not the best swimmer even at full strength, and this challenge required a lot of swimming. When she had FINALLY retrieved her key, and started backstroking back, she didn’t have the energy to keep her head fully above the water. Heck, in the show itself, you could SEE water lapping into her open mouth. It’s not the sort of thing that bothers me, but even I’LL admit that I’m inhumanly comfortable with feeling like I’m drowning. Tasha, for all her strengths, is only human, and so quite logically panics. For the second episode in a row, props must be given to the “Survivor” medical team, specifically their diving team. 31 seasons in, and we’ve never actually had to see the diving team rescue somebody, or even glimpsed them in the background of a challenge. They must have been there, since they got out to Tasha very quickly, but you never see them. The hid well, and performed their job to perfection. Once Tasha is out of the water, though, the tension leaves. Unlike Joe’s medical issues last episode, where it wasn’t 100% certain what was going on, leaving the possibility of an evacuation open. In Tasha’s case, it was very clear that she was just weakened and panicked. Once she was up on a platform, out of the water, it was pretty clear that she was out of danger, leaving Probst’s serious line of questioning a bit pointless. Everyone rallies around Tasha, and Probst sends them back to camp, leaving Keith to quip about how good it is that they’re sending Tasha home that night, since she’s so weak.

Back at camp, Tasha tries to walk it off, and gets some encouragement from Jeremy. Her absence allows Spencer, Keith, and Kelley to come together again, though, and try and bring Abi-Maria on board with them. As Spencer puts it, he’d be confident in this alliance if their fourth member was someone stable. Their fourth member is Abi-Maria. Enough said. Abi-Maria, for her part, does seem interested in this alliance, particularly since she and Kelley have been tight for a lot of the time in this game, but she herself talks about how she’s the swing vote, and might do something different just to shake things up.

Let us not forget that Abi-Maria is delusional, though. Just when it seems she might be the swing vote, we find out that the swing vote is actually Spencer, a role he should be used to by now. Tasha reasons to him that this season “Deserves a strong final 3” as a thank-you to the fans, as a reasoning why he should stick with the himself-Jeremy-Tasha final three. Now, as a viewer, I very much like this idea. A final three where most everyone has an equal or close-to-equal chance of winning is much more exciting to watch than someone going to the end with a goat or two. That said, speaking as someone who likes this show for the strategy more than anything, this is a STUPID IDEA! Spencer, you’re in one of the best positions to win the game! Don’t potentially jeopardize it for the sake of us! I get that this season honors the fans almost as much as it does the returnees, but that’s no reason to sacrifice your game for us!

Fortunately, as we head off to Tribal Council, I doubt that’ll happen, and I’m now pretty sure that Tasha is going. It just makes more sense strategically, and Spencer is nothing if not strategic. Admittedly, Abi-Maria’s comment about her being in power might be setting up some hubris for her exit, but the storyline of Tasha wanting to make a move and having it backfire on her has pervaded the episode. It makes more sense from both a strategic standpoint and an editing standpoint.

Gone are the early days of this season, when every Tribal Council was exciting. Again, I have to say, this was not the WORST Tribal Council ever, but it just doesn’t stand out. There is a bit where it seems like Keith might make another “Stick to the plan.” gaffe by saying “I think my ‘We’ is gonna win out.”, but this just gets everyone talking about their various “We’s”, and the five-year-old part of me is laughing his butt off. It’s entertaining, but it’s about the only strong part of Tribal Council, and when it’s based on juvenile penis humor, that’s not a good thing. If only we had an unpredictable vote to get to…

Say what you will about this season, but it’s very good at hiding who’s actually going home. I should have followed the hubris, as Abi-Maria leaves the game. She oddly DOES follow through with her threat of breaking away, and votes for Keith. Not the MOST illogical vote, since his name was tossed around earlier in the episode, but it seems weird to me that she’d break away from Kelley like that. The two seemed to be pretty well in cahoots. I’ve made it pretty clear that getting rid of Abi-Maria was a dumb move, so kudos to Tasha for convincing people that it was a good move to make. That woman can SELL a poor argument. As to whether I’m sorry to see Abi-Maria go, the answer is NOT AT ALL! Granted, she was the center of drama early on, but a decent amount of that drama was cringe-inducing. Even if you liked it, she quieted down after the merge, with the exception of dubbing Stephen “Poop-pants” for very little reason, so really, not much of a loss. Exciting for the viewers, but a dumb move for pretty much everyone involved.

This episode is a tough nut to crack. I can hardly call it a BAD episode, since we did get a decent amount of strategic talk and an unpredictable sendoff. Yet I still feel lukewarm about it. I guess because a lot of episodes this season have been MAJORLY exciting, one that’s only just standard exciting at best seems like a bit of a letdown. I will say, while this is still an excellent season, I feel like it might have peaked too early. Again, not that the episodes haven’t been good in their own right, just that all the most amazing stuff happened early on in the season. It can still make a comeback, especially since the finale looks exciting. A six-person final episode. Never seen that before. Presumably they’ll add in an extra Tribal Council, or just have a double Tribal Council, to get us down to a final three. But who can win in any final three scenario? time for my ordering of people from easiest win to toughest win. Usually I go from “guaranteed win if they make the end” to “no chance at winning”, but with Abi-Maria gone, I’d say everyone has some chance of winning. A slim chance, maybe, but a chance. And who’s the top of the heap?

KELLEY: Should she get to the end, I’m pretty sure she wins. It’s a tough call between her and the person I’d say is second most likely to win, but I think Kelley has the edge in this case. Of all the people left, her game has been the most up-front, and she’s got a great underdog story. She was in the minority a lot of the time, yet lasted a good long while. She never made the merge on her original season, yet she beat out people who did. Maybe I’m just biased since she’s a Kelley who’s not, as I once put it, “Bland as beige wallpaper”, but I feel like she could be a good winner, and has a great shot at it if she gets to the end. Her getting to the end is the biggest obstacle, but if she gets there, watch out!

SPENCER: If this list factored in who is most LIKELY to get to the end, Spencer is on top, no question. He’s got connections with everybody, is constantly the swing vote for alliances, there’s really no reason why he can’t make the end. And, unless he’s up against Kelley, he probably wins. He’s also got something of an underdog story with the “No firm alliance” thing and early votes against him. I give Kelley the edge because I feel like Spencer’s game is more subtle. Not that that’s a bad thing, but it means there’s less he can point to that was exclusively his move. Against anyone else, he’s fine. Against Kelley, it might cost him.

JEREMY: While his win is maybe not as assured as either Spencers or Kelleys in the final three, Jeremy still has a decent shot. He led a lot of big votes, can point to his “human shields” strategy as a way he improved his game, and has a decent sob story for the end. It’s probably best for him if he DOESN’T take Spencer or Kelley to the end, but even then, he still has a slim chance.

TASHA: I feel bad putting Tasha this low, since I don’t think she’s played a bad game (vindictiveness against Kass aside). The trouble is that, while Tasha has done an excellent job of making herself a part of every conversation, she, like Spencer, really has no moves she can point to as her own, and that may cost her. Not that her resume is bad, just that it’s a lot weaker that most everybody else’s.

KEITH: Like the order of the top two people, the order of the bottom two people are kind of a toss-up. Neither of them can really say they’ve done much of ANYTHING in this game, and so probably will have a hard time winning. I give Keith the edge because, unlike some people I could name, I could see him playing the “I was playing stupid.” card and actually have it be believed. Plus, he has a couple challenge wins to his name, which may count for something.

KIMMI: Kimmi has played a pretty fantastic social game overall, but like Tasha and Spencer, I think it may be too subtle to give her an easy win. I doubt she’s out of the running entirely, but she’s a long-shot. She really has no moves to her name, and can only hope for a bitter jury to give the win to her over someone else. I almost put her above Keith, since I really don’t see either of them winning. I only put her lower because of the edit. With how little screen time she’s gotten overall this season, she’s not winning it. Shame, because I do like her.

Well, the finale’s being built up big, and it’s not too late for the end game to be as exciting as the early game. Here’s hoping!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

“Survivor” Retrospectives: Redemption Island.

Ok, I know I’ve got a set format for these “Retrospectives” blogs, wherein I first snakily comment upon the public’s opinion of a given season versus my own, and then warn people about spoilers, but I’m breaking it here. There’s literally no way for me to introduce “Survivor Redemption Island” without spoiling the season in a major way. So I’m just going to say right up front that, if you just want to know my general, spoiler-free opinion on the season, scroll down to the bottom of this page. You should find a section labeled “Abstract” that is spoiler-free. If you don’t want spoilers, stop reading this paragraph. Right now. Yes, even you stragglers who can’t stop yourselves from reading something once you’ve started.

All those who want spoilers gone? Good.

Well, now we come to the follow up season to “Survivor Nicaragua”. After coming off of such bad season, you know “Survivor” needed a real home-run idea. Something to knock the fan’s collective socks off. As such we got “Survivor Boston Rob”… I mean “Survivor Redemption Island”. It did not knock the fan’s collective socks off. It sucked. Badly. Let’s read on and find out exactly what went wrong, which, since we start with the “Cast” section, should happen very quickly.

CAST

So, who out of the Redemption Island cast had any discernible impact on the season as a whole? Boston Rob.

Oh, what’s that? Like any good “Survivor” fan, you wanted more than that? It takes more than one person to make up a season? Well, too bad! CBS says you’re getting Boston Rob, and you’re going to like him, dammit!

Ok, ok, so I’m exaggerating, but only fractionally so. But before we get into the VERY few people who weren’t Boston Rob who mattered this season, let’s talk about exactly what Boston Rob brought this season that he did not bring over the last three seasons we had him on. Well, to his credit, Boston Rob learned from his past mistakes. Specifically, his mistakes in not locking down his alliance as solidly as he should have, and taking someone to the end who could easily win against him. He corrected both of these problems posthaste, leading to probably his best strategic game. This was both blessing and curse. We’d never really seen someone dominate an alliance quite so thoroughly and successfully, so, from a strategic perspective, a very enlightening season. Notice that I used the term “enlightening” rather than “interesting” or “entertaining”, since the latter two terms imply some form of positive feeling towards this development. The curse of Boston Rob 4.0, which I’ll be repeating several times throughout this blog, is that when it’s this obvious who the winner will be, THE SHOW GETS BORING! Yes, Boston Rob’s strategic dominance was impressive, but it also killed any sense of drama after about the fourth or fifth episode, which, in a season almost three times that length, is not a good sign. The fan reaction to Boston Rob reflects this. Most people agree he played a really good game, but one that ended up being boring, and except for die-hard Boston Rob fans (i.e. Jeff Probst), nobody really liked seeing the domination of Boston Rob. Add on to that that this was his FOURTH CHANCE at the game, and many people (myself included) felt like this was just CBS trying to give Boston Rob a win since he “deserved it”, and no one much wanted to see that. Personally, I like Boston Rob’s return here even less than the others, since I was never a big fan of his to begin with, and was just sick of him by the time this season rolled around. So yeah, Boston Rob. There you have it. Not much else to say. Even so, I’ll admit that I was more pleased to see Boston Rob than I was to see the person playing opposite him.

Yes, folks, Boston Rob wasn’t quite the ONLY big name of the season. For literally the THIRD SEASON OUT OF THE MOST RECENT 4, Russell Hantz of “Survivor Samoa” was coming back to play. If the audience was SLIGHTLY fatigued of Boston Rob, they were REALLY fatigued with Russell (except, of course, for the die-hard Russell Hantz fans, of which there are fewer and fewer by the day). He came back and, surprise surprise, played EXACTLY the same game as before. He went out and got his “dumbass girl” alliance, this time consisting of Krista Klump and Stephanie Valencia, and tried to dominate the Zapatera tribe. We didn’t really need to see it twice, and we DEFINITELY didn’t need to see the same game played a third time. Yet, strangely, I find this to be the most tolerable Russell Hantz ever was. That is because this is both his shortest and most ironic tenure ever. I’ll go over this more in the “Twist” section, but suffice to say that Russell Hantz’ exit is probably the highlight of the season. Ironically, because he is so hated, and because he left so early, his presence is probably the best thing out of this season. Again, I’ll talk about this more in the “Twist” section, and I really hate to say it, but once Russell left, the season just wasn’t the same.

Ah, but I would be remiss to not mention one of Probst’s favorite characters of all time to come out of Redemption Island. After all, the season wouldn’t be the same without Phillip “Special Agent?” Sheppard. Yes, Phillip, the large, loud, supposed former federal agent insisted upon not being ignored. And how did he do this? By being crazy. And no, since he made this argument, I am not saying he was “crazy” out of any form of racism. I certainly acknowledge that sometimes black people have been labeled “crazy” as a way of dismissing them, and I do not support such behavior in any way. Sometimes, though, crazy just means crazy, and Phillip Sheppard was just regularly crazy. I’m forgoing the fact that he walked around in his pink underwear a lot of the time, since there’s nothing wrong with hot pink underwear, and since it was hot, I’d imagine he’d want to go pants-less sometimes. What I’m NOT going to pass by is his claims of all these classified stories of his being a federal agent, his random yelling at people who supposedly slight Boston Rob, and ESPECIALLY his chats with Great-Grandpa Jessup. Yeah, it’s one thing to reminisce about dearly departed family members, or even “talk” to them, but Phillip took it to a whole new level. Claiming that said dearly-departed great-grandpa sent you a feather pretty well classifies you as nuts. Suffice to say that the audience did not latch on to Phillip Sheppard nearly as well as CBS would have liked. And they brought him back for “Survivor Caramoan” anyway, and there he was, if possible, crazier. I have heard that he has a few supporters; those who claim that Phillip was just playing up the “crazy” aspects of himself to make sure he got to the end. Given how over-the-top some of Phillip’s stunts were, I’d believe it. I would, if it weren’t for the fact that he DIDN’T OWN UP TO THIS STRATEGY AT THE FINAL TRIBAL COUNCIL! WHY WOULD YOU GO TO THE TROUBLE OF PLAYING THE CRAZY PERSON TO MAKE IT TO THE END, ONLY THEN TO NOT OWN IT, THEREBY DEFEATING THE PURPOSE OF THE STRATEGY? No, Phillip Sheppard is being 100% himself, and that’s kind of scary. Phillip is not a good addition to the “Survivor” lexicon.

Of course, there are actually two other people from Redemption Island who got invited to play again, and they do deserve at least a bit of consideration. The first is Andrea Boehlke, the little “strategist” with the unpronounceable last name. She’s usually remembered more for her potential on this season than anything else, which I can’t deny. Unlike most of the rest of her tribe, Andrea was NOT fully on the “Boston Rob is ‘Survivor’ Jesus” train. She did have something of a mind of her own, and was smarter than most of her competitors. On the other hand, this is really being damned by faint praise. Sea Slugs are smarter than 95% of this season’s cast. I’ve heard other people say that she’s hot, and she may be, but I personally don’t see it, and in any case, that shouldn’t be a criterion for what makes a good “Survivor” character. Nevertheless, I can say that Andrea didn’t annoy me this season, beyond just not living up to her threats to get Boston Rob. She wasn’t exciting, but at least she didn’t annoy me. The other major player this season, with the incomprehensible first name (according to Phillip) if the first boot, Francesca Hogi. She’s remembered not so much for her gameplay, but for her manner of leaving. She was voted out after a (admittedly hilarious) Tribal Council in which Phillip could not pronounce her name, but also got voted out for little to no reason. True, she did move against Boston Rob on the season where to even THINK of doing so was blasphemous, but she wasn’t the ringleader of that alliance. One Kristina Kell was. However, she had a hidden immunity idol, and so Francesca was targeted through little fault of her own. Not that Francesca was ever going to be a fabulous player, but she might have had potential as a character. I, like most of the audience, pitied her more than liked her, and while she wasn’t a bad character to come out of this season, she wasn’t the strongest.

Now there are those who were popular at the time, but who have (rightly so, in all cases) fallen into the cracks as time goes by. First up is Matt Elrod, the overall nice guy of the group who was an early boot, due to being too “nice” for Boston Rob’s liking. Matt got a lot of love early on, as a likable challenge beast who ruled the first part of Redemption Island (the twist, not the season). Sadly, when he came back at the merge, it became clear that Matt was really just an idiot who kind of deserved what he got, and I was on that bandwagon well before the merge. I will say it hurt a bit so see him go on a personal level, but that’s only because, as someone else named Matt, it’s rather jarring to hear your own name written down at Tribal Council. There was also Ralph Kiser, who at first seemed like he might be another Tom Buchanan (“Survivor Africa”). He had the same sort of drawl, but we quickly realized that, unlike Tom, there was no craftiness or intelligence behind it, just more stupid. Bear in mind that this is the man who once cast a vote for “Fillup”, Ralph’s stupidity these days is just another stain on the “Survivor” legacy, and good riddance to him. Oh, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention David Murphy, arguably the most missed potential of any contestant ever. David was built up big time pre-season as a major strategist, with the highest IQ of any contestant to date! He was also a smug bastard, with many a fun confessional. This led the audience to believe that he was going to become a major force on the season, and his smugness would be backed up with brilliance. Except it wasn’t. David did nothing smart the entire season. Indeed, he actually screwed up several puzzles (only one on purpose), was generally a moron, and like 95% of this cast, simply kowtowed to Boston Rob in the end. What is he remembered for? Awkwardly proposing to his girlfriend, Carolina Eastwood (“Survivor Tocantins”) live at the reunion show, and uncomfortable affair that I wouldn’t be surprised to learn actually led to the separation of the two. Seriously, watch that reunion show again, and watch the look on Carolina’s face when David proposes. You can tell she want’s to say “No”, but can’t do it on national tv. Seriously, you wanted us to like THIS guy?

And the trouble is, that’s really it. I did have a personal favorite in Ashley Underwood, that was more because a friend of mine knew her than anything. I do think she had more brains than most of the people on that season who weren’t Boston Rob, but again, sea slugs. Also, she had no real personality to back up that brain, so not much to see there. Stephanie did get some play recently when she was nominated for the upcoming “Survivor Cambodia”, but not much. She wasn’t picked, and rightly so in my eyes, since she didn’t DO anything on her season. She’s faded pretty quickly back into obscurity, and that’s where she belongs. Even the stunt casting of former NFL players Steve Wright and Grant Mattos did nothing to improve the cast.

People will often claim that this cast was hand-selected to give Boston Rob a victory. I don’t personally think that was the case (not to say that there weren’t OTHER ways the producers tried to stack things in Boston Rob’s favor, which we’ll go over in the “Twist” section), but I can definitely see why people think that’s the case. This cast is filled with nothing but idiots and aggravating people. You’re hard pressed to find anyone other than Boston Rob with a brain, much less an appealing character. The season gets points for having an amazing domination on Boston Rob’s end, but even that ruined at lot of the season. In the end, one of the worst casts the show has ever had.

SCORE: 3 out of 10

CHALLENGES:

Normally on a season with a bad cast (and, in this case, bad twists as well), one can at least say there were a lot of cool challenges. That is not the case with Redemption Island. Don’t get me wrong, it has it’s fair share of epic challenges (in particular, I like the first immunity challenge a lot), but for every challenge that’s great, it has one that just kind of sucks. You know that lame “Balancing balls on a plate” challenge that the show loves to use now? Yeah, that started here. Not a fun challenge to watch at all. This one also had the puzzle of “Count the numbers 1-100”, which is, in my opinion, the LAMEST puzzle the show has ever done. It does have the standout challenge of the “Ribbing the Fish One-Handed” puzzle (which sounds like a sex position to me), ut it also has the “use Craftsman Tools to get through an obstacle course” challenge. Apart from one or two standouts, the challenges just aren’t that spectacular this season. For the most part, they’re either boring or lame, and that’s really not good for a season with little to go on to begin with.

SCORE: 4 our of 10.

TWISTS

In case you haven’t figured it out by now, pretty much every aspect of Redemption Island sucks. Usually, if the cast is bad, the twists are ok, or vice versa. This is not the case here. The twists of Redemption Island suck hard. And the mere concept of Redemption Island (the twist, not the season) also sucks hard. But I’m getting ahead of myself. This was not the first twist of the season. All the advertising was not for “Redemption Island”. No, it was for the “Rob vs. Russell”, playing off a boast Boston Rob made at the “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” reunion show. Let me state categorically that this was a TERRIBLE idea for a season. Now, I’ve said before and I’ll say again that returning castaways, in and of themselves, are not bad. But there’s a right and a wrong way to do it. The right way is like in “Survivor Guatemala”, where the players brought back had not been oversaturated in the public consciousness at this point, and both were pretty universally loved, or at least tolerated. With Boston Rob and Russell, this was their fourth and third times playing, respectively, so they felt a lot more tired than Stephenie and Bobby Jon did on “Survivor Guatemala”. On top of that, while Boston Rob had won a lot of respect on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, neither of them was as universally loved as Stephenie was, or even close to what Bobby Jon got. The other aspect that made “Survivor Guatemala” the right way to have returning castaways, and Redemption Island the wrong way to have returning castaways, is based on the strength of the supporting cast. True, Stephenie was still the star of “Survivor Guatemala”, but she wasn’t the only person who had anything going for her. As mentioned before, Boston Rob and Russell were really the only entertainment game in town this season, which is not how the returning castaways should be used. They should add spice to an already good season, not have to carry the entire thing. Ultimately, while I can see why these two were wanted back, it was too soon, and these two were the wrong two to do it with.

Next, we come to the titular Redemption Island. You’re hard-pressed to find anyone today who likes this twist, and I am no exception. I’ll be trashing it a lot, and pointing out it’s shortcomings in a moment. But first I would like to take a moment to give the ONE logical reason I have come up with as to why CBS thought this would be a good idea, since many of the flaws with this twist are obvious to most everybody.

Now, I hate to do this. I hate to have to put the season into a context where it must be compared to the seasons around it. I feel a season should be able to stand on its own, without any influence about what the seasons around it were, since it can unfairly bias people against an ok season when it came after a spectacular season. But in this case, it must be done, since the one justification I can see for the Redemption Island twist is tied directly to “Survivor Nicaragua”. Remember how I said in my last retrospective that what people have the most about “Survivor Nicaragua” is the Na’Onka/Purple Kelly quit? And how it was made worse by the fact that Brenda and Marty, the two most popular strategists of the season had just been voted out? Well, I would say that Redemption Island is a direct response to that problem. Yes, even before the season aired, I think the show realized that two big names from the season going out before two pathetic players was a major problem. The solution, then, was to make sure that, if good players went out, they still had a chance to get back in. This wouldn’t have solved the problems of “Survivor Nicaragua”, mind you, but it would have made them slightly less bad. So there, the one justification for why Redemption Island seemed like a good idea.

Now for the reasons that Redemption Island is obviously a bad idea. First off, as Dalton Ross of “Entertainment Weekly” has pointed out, it effective gets rid of the best moment of the show: the torch snuffing. Talk to any person on the street, even if they’ve barely HEARD of “Survivor”, and they can probably tell you at least a little about the torch snuffing process. It’s the icon of the show, and you’ve gotten rid of it in favor of this lame little duel arena. Shame on you, show. Shame on you. Another major obvious problem of Redemption Island is that it eliminates reward challenges from the mix. True, we get “duels” at Redemption Island instead, but those are never as epic as the confrontations of tribe vs. tribe we all wanted. Plus, this meant that, with one challenge combining reward and immunity throughout the game, it was a case of the rich get richer. After all, fewer team challenges is fewer chances for a tribe to gain back some momentum, all the while it’s easier for the other tribe to keep momentum. Beyond these problems, though, it should have been obvious that Redemption Island is simply unfair. Unlike something like the hidden immunity idol, which theoretically anyone can find, Redemption Island favors those who are good at individual challenges, basically saying that people who are good in this area deserve more of a shot to win, despite this NOT being what the game is about. Part of the appeal of “Survivor” is seeing that the physically strong do not necessarily survive. As an audience, we LIKE seeing the strong be overthrown in an epic blindside. But here? They’re rewarded for not playing the game well. Oh, and do you remember how I said that while I don’t think casting was intentionally done to give Boston Rob the victory, but that the producers did do things to benefit him? Well, Redemption Island is that main thing. As I said, Redemption Island favors people who are good in individual challenges. People like, oh, I don’t know, BOSTON ROB?! Yes, I’m willing to bet the producers were worried that Boston Rob or Russell (or, heaven forbid, both of them) were going to be early boots, since they were too well-known and often disliked, and wanted to be sure they’d stay around a while. So, they stuck in Redemption Island to help ensure that, if the cast didn’t rally around one of the returnees, they could still stick around. Blatant favoritism, truly the mark of a good twist! Please note the sarcasm in that sentence. Redemption Island sucked as a twist, and needs to go die in a fire.

One minor twist is that Boston Rob and Russell were randomly divided to their tribes by picking an envelope with a buff in it. Boston Rob went to Ometepe and Russell to Zapatera. Nothing much else to note there. Not a bad way to divide them up, but kind of boring. Although I will say, I’m surprised Ometepe didn’t see the twist coming, since they had three guys and five girls on their team before Boston Rob showed up. Gender imbalance should have clued them in that something was up.

Now, for all that I bash the twists of this season, the first three episodes were actually pretty good blindsides. First there was the craziness that was the Francesca boot, then there was the Matt Elrod conspiracy due to his being too friendly towards the other tribe, and finally Zapatera throwing the challenge to get rid of Russell (the best episode in the series, mind you).. Three pretty excellent blindsides, and actually a pretty good way to start off the season. Mind you, this is the ONLY good thing about Redemption Island. The chaos was fun, and it was great to see Russell finally be shown for what he really is: a horrible, single-minded player whom nobody likes. His breakdown at the beginning of episode 4 (after losing at Redemption Island) is the highlight of the season. It’s also worth noting that the tribes got to choose each time who went to watch Redemption Island duels. This part was actually kind of cool. It added a new layer to tribal politics, and allowed for the selective dissemination of certain information. Mind you, this does NOT in any way make up for the overall awfulness of Redemption Island, but at least one aspect of it wasn’t HORRIBLE.

Now, many people have said that Russell’s leaving the game was where Redemption Island got bad. I agree with them, but not, like many have said, because Russell would never have given up. His boot was the point where the season became bad because it spelled the end of the Zapateras. Think about it. Part of what was exciting about early Redemption Island was Boston Rob trying once again to lead a band of “buffoons”, but being thwarted by his tribe’s incompetence. Boston Rob is at his best and most likable when he’s playing an underdog trying to come back from the brink. Had the season continued without Zapatera throwing the challenge, but instead continuing to dominate, that’s exactly the position Boston rob would have been in. Instead, as throwing a challenge so often does, the Zapateras found themselves in a downward spiral they couldn’t control. This allowed Boston Rob to dominate the rest of the game, and make it incredibly boring.

Don’t believe me that Boston Rob’s domination was boring? Consider the fact that, after the Russell boot, there were literally NO twists until the merge. And then, do you know what the big twists were? Matt coming back into the game, granting false hope that Boston Rob might be overthrown, only to turn around and be LOYAL to the person who stabbed him in the back, and then be voted out again, and Boston Rob getting the tribe to name themselves after one of Amber Brkich’s (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) teddy bears. Whoopee. They did at least move to a new campsite, rather than go to one of the tribe’s campsites, which is rare to see, but again, not all that exciting.

This is also where Boston Rob’s infamous “Buddy System” comes into play, and it, in my opinion, is what kills the system. Basically, Boston Rob decreed that his alliance must always have at least one other person around them, to dissuade them from talking with the down-in-numbers Zapatera tribe. I’m not going to deny that this was a smart strategy. It effectively neutered any possibility of uprising against Boston Rob (not that such a thing was ever much of a threat with this group), but it also meant that the second half of the game (and even some of the first half) clearly showed that Boston Rob was the winner. there were no other options. We just had to sit there as first all of Zapatera and then the popular members of Boston Rob’s alliance were picked off one by one. Oh, there were a few surprises here and there. There was a surprise immunity challenge at Tribal Council, leading to a double Tribal Council, which mercifully shortened the inevitable Pagonging of Zapatera by one episode, and there was Ashley’s immunity winning streak near the end, forcing Rob to blindside Grant, but none of it mattered. We all knew Boston Rob was going to win the game. Even Andrea winning the final Redemption Island duel, a fairly impressive feat, didn’t matter. She just got voted out next anyway. We all knew that Boston Rob was going to win, why did anything else matter?

There is one aspect of this season, that could be called a “Twist” that I have yet to touch on. It bears mentioning, though, because for me it exemplifies a lot of where Redemption Island went wrong as a season. At the “merge” the two tribes agreed to live together under one name, but stayed two separate tribes. They had different supplies, different fires, even different shelters, with Zapatera’s being noticeably lower than Ometepe’s. This will become important shortly, I assure you. Now, this in and of itself is not too novel. After all, especially in the early days, many of the “merged” tribes were effectively this. However, this was the most blatant we’ve ever seen, and the shelter division exemplifies this. Due to difference in shelter height, Ometepe was quite literally putting Zapatera beneath them. Why is this important, you may ask? Consider the fact that psychologically, for normal human beings, it takes a lot to make us ok with killing. Army training is months long not only because of the physical demands of the job, but also because that time is needed to “train” people to be ok with killing. One of the quick and easy ways to do this is to dehumanize the enemy, to make them seem less than you. One need only look as far as war propaganda cartoons, particularly during WWII, to see this. Why do you think, in American media, the Japanese were depicted either as stooped over, backwards men with buck teeth, or even as demonic figures? It made it easier to hate them, easier to kill them. While it’s probably easier to vote someone out of “Survivor” than to kill someone, there are a lot of similarities. You’re effectively ending their “Survivor” life after all. Wouldn’t it be infinitely easier to vote someone off if you could just dismiss them as being “less”than you? And conversely, wouldn’t it be hard to protest your execution if you were told, day after day, that you were not as good as the others, that you deserve less than they did? That’s exactly what happened on Redemption Island, and nowhere is it evidence more blatantly than with the shelter division. I have said before, and I will say again, one of the smartest things Boston Rob did was to put the other tribe literally beneath his alliance. It helped secure him the game, but it also made the season incredibly boring. No one fought back, so the season was completely predictable.

Also, this is the season that got rid of the “Fallen Comrades” tribute, something I’ve never really gotten over the loss of. I’m glad it wasn’t shown in this case, since a lot of the things said were mean and hateful, but I hate that it became precedent. Yeah, it could get lame at times, since players had to comment on people they didn’t know, but I always looked on it as something not so much for the players, but for the audience to reflect on their 13-episode journey. I wish they’d bring it back.

I can’t say EVERY single twist of Redemption Island was bad. But I can say all the major ones were, and they outweigh the very few good ones by way too much.

SCORE: 2 out of 10

OVERALL

In terms of theme, Redemption Island went for a theme of, well, redemption. It took on the culture of typical Central American ruins, which wasn’t bad, but had been done before, and just didn’t stand out. As to the redemption theme, it’s a bit hard to buy when the only person who seemed to overcome anything was Boston Rob, and as I’ve said before, having one person run the entire season is not fun to watch.

It’s hard sometimes for a season with all good elements to come together. A season with bad elements? Not happening. The cast, challenges, and twists all came together in this case to create a season that was at BEST boring and predictable, and at worst downright unpleasant. Don’t get me wrong, the first few episodes are fairly exciting, but that’s barely a fourth of the season. When three quarters of your season is just utter crap, it’s not a good sign. Overall, the season does not work. Unsurprisingly, a bunch of bad aspects come together to make a bad season.

SCORE: 10 out of 40.

ABSTRACT

Redemption Island is by no means a good season. For someone looking for one season of “Survivor” that is an entertaining watch, I say skip this season and never look back. From a strategic point of view, this season is well-played, but only by one player, and this makes for a boring and predictable watch. That said, this season does sadly have a MAJOR influence on later seasons, so if you’re at all interested in seasons beyond this point, you’re going to have to watch this. Suffer through it once, then never see it again.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor San Juan del Sur” Cast Assessment

Come on in guys! Welcome back to Idol Speculation, my knee-jerk opinion that EVERYONE is entitled to. NO, you’ll have to wait almost another year for me to discuss the awfulness that is “Survivor Nicaragua”. Instead, we get to discuss the awfulness that it seems will be evident in the overly long-titled “Survivor San Juan del Sur”. Yeah, I don’t want to go into too much detail here, as I’ll be saving it for the end, but suffice to say that this is not one of the casts that shows much promise, at least to my eyes. Let’s find out why, with an in-depth look at each pair.
A couple notes: once again, as everyone is connected to their loved one (at least from a marketing standpoint), I’ll be going over people in pairs, but judging them individually. You have been warned. Also, I apologize if the names of the tribes are somewhat wrong or misspelled. For whatever reason, despite the fact that from the video evidence we KNOW who’s on what tribe, the names of the tribes have not been released. As such, I have to pause the video to try and read the names on buffs and tribe mats, which is an inexact science. However, it WILL fulfill the main reason I do it (so one can get a good look at the makeup of each tribe, giving more insight into why I pick whom I pick), so I’m going to try anyway. So, onto the cast.

Keith Nale (53, Fire Captain, Winter Park, FL. Hunaphu Tribe) and his son Wes Nale (23, Firefigher, Shreveport, LA. Coyopa Tribe): It wouldn’t be “Survivor” if we didn’t have the token rednecks for the season. Seriously, this pair pretty much epitomizes the idea of the Louisiana “Good Ol’ Boy”. They have the drawl, they have the simplistic worldview, they talk about hunting and fishing and the outdoors. Now, as rednecks go, they kind of fall in the middle of what “Survivor” is used to. They don’t go into the all-out stupidity of some rednecks on the show (think Ralph Kaiser of “Survivor Redemption Island”), but they also don’t have the hidden depths that can make the better redneck characters entertaining (think Sue Hawk of “Survivor Borneo” or Tom Buchanan of “Survivor Africa”). In some ways this is good, as they probably won’t be annoying, but it also means there won’t be much too them apart from stereotypes. Not the worst that this season will be putting out, but in terms of “Survivor” as a whole, I don’t think they’ll stand out. As to their chances in the game, I don’t really give Keith any. He says he has drive, which may help him out more than I expect, but I don’t see him lasting long into the tribal phase, and almost definitely will not make the merge. He seems a bit bossy to me, and while I’m certain he’s strong for his age, I don’t think he’ll be entirely necessary, and so will be axed. Now, he seems like an ok guy, and I doubt he’ll be the very first person out, but I don’t see him having a long shelf life. Wes is another matter. He reminds me a lot of J.T. (“Survivor Tocantins”) in terms of charm and social smarts, but I’d say he’s lacking in the intelligence that sealed J.T.’s game. Wes comparing himself to Ozzy Lusth (“Survivor Cook Islands”) doesn’t exactly encourage me, either. Still, he’s strong, likeable, and knows how to stay out of the way. I’d be surprised if Wes doesn’t make the merge. In fact, if he displays a bit more common sense than what we’ve seen, I’d say Wes is a threat to win the game. Even if he is as dumb as he seems, though, I expect him to go far on charm alone.
Josh Canfield (32, Actor/Writer, New York, NY. Coyopa Tribe) and his boyfriend Reed Kelly (31, Broadway Performer/Model/Aerialist, New York, NY. Hunaphu Tribe): Reed readily admits that he was a background performer in the Broadway production of “Spider-Man: Turn Off The Dark”, which right away tells you that he is a man without fear! Seriously, that is right up there with “Pokemon Live” on the list of “Shows you do not want to ever admit you were a part of”. Ok, so he also had a similar role in “Wicked”, which has a lot more prestige. Enough with the Broadway in-jokes, though, let’s actually talk about them. In keeping with the theme of stereotypes, these guys are very much the “gay actor” stereotype, but I’ll give them credit that they’re self-aware enough to realize that and joke about it. Unfortunately, as I’ve mentioned in the past, actors in general are very extreme people, and it’s very easy to elicit a hateful reaction from others without trying. Because of this, I’d say Josh is in trouble early on. I have a lot of sympathy for the guy, he seems nice enough and is a hell of a singer, and I don’t think he’s bad at the mental game. I just think someone’s going to take a dislike to him, and kick him out before the merge. Additionally, even though he has some knowledge of the game, I don’t see Josh being much of a leader. He may get in an alliance, but if anything happens to it, his game will crumble. No, I don’t give Josh very good odds at all. Once again, however, I’m much more excited about his counterpart. Reed to me comes off as much more of a go-getter, and even something more of a charmer. As such, I feel that Reed will better be able to utilize the positive aspects of his game. It also helps that while both are athletic, Reed is more overtly so, which will help break the “gay men are wimps” stereotype that can doom even the smartest of contestants. I ALMOST put Reed as my male pick to win it all, but two things stop me: One, while a charmer, Reed is not immune to potentially rubbing people the wrong way, and thus has a chance of a pointless boot. Two, both Reed and Josh claim to be heavily Christian (both list the Bible as one of their luxury items). I didn’t bring it up before because they rarely mention it in actual interviews, which tells me they may be low-key about it in the game, but if they become more overt about it, I will like them a lot less, and it could hurt their game. Still, as it stands now, I actually kind of like Reed (neutral on Josh, though I do have a soft spot for theatre people), and think he’ll make the mid-merge, before getting picked off by another alliance.
Missy Payne (47, Competitive Cheerleading Gym Owner, Dallas, TX. Hunaphu Tribe) and her daughter Baylor Wilson (20, Student, Nashville, TN. Coyopa Tribe): Oh boy, NOW we start getting into the problems of the season. If the people aren’t annoying stereotypes, they just plain BORING! These two are the most generic mother-daughter team out there. They have nothing interesting to say, no interesting backstory, just nothing to them. I get that they’re trying to recreate the mother/daughter dynamic they had in Laura Morett and Ciera Eastin on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, but THAT dynamic worked because those two were actually good strategists. These two merely THINK they’re good strategists. Let’s talk about how they’ll each individually fail. Missy, I can see, thinks she’s going to be the Kim Spradlin (“Survivor One World”) of the season, and I’ll give her credit that it’s an admirable goal to shoot for. The trouble is I think Missy is more used to things coming easy for her, and I doubt she’ll be handed leadership like Kim was. I see her as going more of the Laura Boneham (“Survivor Blood vs. Water”) route. She’ll struggle to be accepted early on, only to find that when she does, she’ll be towards the bottom of the totem pole. When she can’t handle that, she’ll assert herself too much, and get herself voted off. Not the earliest boot, but gone shortly before the merge I’d say. In keeping with “Survivor Blood vs. Water” comparisons, Baylor is a lot more like Katie Collins than anybody. Somewhat attractive, but not a strategist, boring as all get out, and will not be missed later on. I think she might actually make the merge by riding coattails alone, but there’s no way she’s winning. She might even be out sooner than that, if she can’t find a way to make herself useful. Definitely do not look for these two anywhere near the end.
Natalie Anderson (28, Crossfit Coach, Edgewater, NJ. Hunaphu Tribe) and her twin sister Nadiya Anderson (28, Crossfit Coach, Edgewater, NJ. Coyopa Tribe): Here it is, folks, the crowing jewel on this awful cast! Addressing the elephant in the room, these two were on “The Amazing Race” twice, and this greatly informs my opinion of their chances. I believe I’ve gone over it before, but let me here recap my opinion of the “The Amazing Race”. I am a fair weather fan. I understand the rules fairly well, but not in the encyclopedic way I know “Survivor”. I have watched the show in the past, usually when a team that particularly interests me is on (for the record, I’m a big fan of Margie and Luke), but I don’t know every contestant. I think it’s a good show in its own right, but is a bit too luck-based for me to tune in every season.
That said, this past All-Star season was one I DID watch, meaning I got a firsthand look at Natalie and Nadiya. To say that what I saw did not impress me would be an understatement. Apart from their annoying superiority and in-jokes (I will never like the term “twinnies”), they were quick to anger, got frustrated easily, refused to admit their faults, and went so easily to infighting that I was INCREDIBLY happy to see them go first. In case it wasn’t obvious, these traits will not serve them well in the game, and I see no evidence that they have overcome them. “Survivor” is all about interpersonal cooperation. When you can’t even socialize well with your FAMILY under pressure, there’s no way you’ll be able to do it with total strangers on a deserted island. Nope, these two will be voted out first. Which one, you ask? BOTH OF THEM! They’re both equally annoying, and thus both equally likely to go first. But ok, if you’re going to hold me down and INSIST I only pick one, I say Natalie will be out first, only because Nadiya admitted a couple of times that she needed to “Care about what others thought”, which at least demonstrates a MINIMUM of self-knowledge that may save her instant elimination. Still, it’s highly unlikely, and I wouldn’t expect these people to stay around long. No merge for either of them.
Jeremy Collins (36, Cambridge Firefirghter, Foxboro, MA. Hunaphu Tribe.) and his wife Val Collins (35, Foxboro Police Officer,Foxboro, MA. Coyopa Tribe.): Boy, we sure do have a lot of firefighters on this season, don’t we? The reward for making it through Natalie and Nadiya is that we get the AWESOMENESS that is Jeremy and Val. Not saying they’ll do well, necesarilly, but I like them a lot. In fact, scratch that, I like Jeremy so much that he’s my male pick to win the whole thing. Just looking at the guy, you like him. On top of that, he seems intelligent and socially aware enough to lead in a good way. I can definitely see him pulling together an alliance on his tribe, and riding it all the way to the end. What seals the deal for me, though, is how he prepared for the game. He studied, saw what kind of challenges were usually done, and planned a workout routine accordingly. I’m not sure he has everything figured out, but given the level of competition this season, this guy has a major edge. The fact that both he and his wife are one of the few pairs to overtly say, with no humor whatsoever, that they will vote the other out, is promising. Now, I think he’ll definitely try and be the leader, and that may lead to an early eviction, but I say Jeremy will go all the way. Does this mean Val will be my female pick to win? I’d like it to be so, as she seems like a lovely individual, but unfortunately I think Val won’t do so well in the game. Granted, she’s tougher than she looks, and I don’t think she’d be an initial target, but she talked a LOT about her kids, and she seems like the type who would cave in for them. Long story short, I don’t think Val will have her head fully in the game, and so she’ll be done in around the merge. Granted, I said the same thing about Ciera on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, and she turned out great; Val may be the same way. If Val CAN keep her emotions in check, I’d say she’s a major threat to win. As it stands, though, I think she’ll be a nice moral center to watch for a few episodes, but will be out somewhat early.
Jon Misch (26, Financial Assistant, Waterford, MI. Hunaphu Tribe.) and his girlfriend Jaclyn Schultz (25, Media Buyer/Miss Miss Michigan 2013, Las Vegas, NV. Coyopa Tribe): Jon? Is there a Jon on this season? Oh, yeah, sorry, he’s so bland I thought he was part of the background. Actually, for me, Jon bears a striking resemblance to another John, John Cody of “Survivor Blood vs. Water”. Very much a “Nice guy next door” type, I think he’ll have unimpressive gameplay, rely far too much on his physicality to get through, and really isn’t cut out for this show. To his credit, I think he’s a bit more self-aware than John Cody, but will still probably go out early after the merge at the hands of more experienced players. Jaclyn is a bit more of an oddity this season, in that she has a lot going against her. She’s very worldly, she loves her stuff, she’s incredibly girly, she can’t help but flirt and talk about her boyfriend (meaning I think she’ll have a hard time with separation from him), she’s a pageant girl, which I hate. Yet, believe it or not, Jaclyn is my female pick to win the entire damn show. Yes, you are reading this blog correctly. Of the women available (and bear in mind that there’s fewer of them this time, as an all-female pair was pulled for medical reasons shortly before the start of the game), Jaclyn is the best equipped to win, and it’s for one reason: moxie. For all that I bashed her for flirting too much with Jon, Jaclyn did at least talk more than he did, a rarity for the mixed-gender teams this season. Also, there’s something about her self-confidence that I find endearing, and I think while she may lay low at first, she’d be more than willing to step up when some kind of shake-up happened. Granted, as I said, she is fairly worldly, and so might get an early boot as a result, but purely for bravado, I say Jaclyn may win this whole thing. People should watch out. In that sense, at least she does resemble Candice Cody (“Survivor Blood vs. Water”).
John Rocker (39, Former MLB Player, Atlanta, GA. Coyopa Tribe.) and his girlfriend Julie McGee (34, Model/Spray-Tan Business Owner, Atlanta, GA. Hunaphu Tribe.): Not quite as bad as Natalie and Nadiya, but these two are pretty high up there on the “Awful Scale”. John Rocker, formerly a player for the Atlanta Braves, most resembles Joel Anderson of “Survivor Micronesia”, but has fewer social graces. As noted many other places on the internet, John is most famous for making INCREDIBLY racist statements in a “Sports Illustrated” interview some years back. On top of this, having seen his interviews, we can add “SEXIST” to the list of lovely character traits this man has! Of his girlfriend, he remarked that “As a female, she won’t be looked to to lead in challenges”. Wow, guy, THIS is your winning personality? John definitely won’t win, but unfortunately I think he’ll stick around for a while. He’s going to rub people the wrong way, but the guy is strong, and so I suspect people will put up with him until the mid-merge, unfortunately for viewers. The only saving grace that can be said about Julie is that she will at least be out early. She EXEMPLIFIES all the bad things I said about Jaclyn, but has none of the positives to balance them out, and I got basically NOTHING from her out of any interviews. No way she’s making the merge, will have no impact on the game whatsoever, good riddance to the both of them!
Dale Wentworth (55, Farmer, Ephrata, WA. Coyopa Tribe.) and his daughter Kelley Wentworth (28, Marketing Manager, Seattle, WA. Hunaphu Tribe.): I want to like Dale. I want to say he’ll do well. While not all that unusually smart (but not unintelligent), Dale reminds me a lot of Bob Crowley (“Survivor Gabon”), in that he’s a laid-back guy who can make himself useful, and is stronger than he looks. What prevents me from saying Dale will do well is that I think he loves his daughter too much. He claims he’s out for himself, but from what I’ve read and the way they relate, when push comes to shove, he’d sacrifice himself for his daughter. Now, WITHOUT his daughter in the picture, Dale’s chances improve greatly. If Kelley is out early, I’d say Dale is out around the mid-merge time, if only because he’s not as cutthroat as some of the other players. If Kelley stays in for a while, though, I’d expect Dale out pretty quickly in the pre-merge era. As to which is more likely, I’m saying Kelley stays in a while, despite her blandness (why is every Kelley cast on this show as boring as beige wallpaper?). While nothing has been demonstrated, she seems to be upbeat, and CLAIMS to be tough from working on the farm. If she can pull that out, she’ll probably make the mid-merge period. If not, she’s out early for being weak. Bottom line, one of them is making the merge, one is not. Just depends on how well they integrate.
Drew Christy (25, Sales Representative, Winter Park, FL. Hunaphu Tribe.) and his brother Alec Christy (22, Student, Winter Park, FL. Coyopa Tribe.): Oh my God, they’re cloning “Fabio” (“Survivor Nicaragua”)! Run for your life! In all seriousness, while these guys play up the “surfer dude” stereotype, I like them more than I liked “Fabio” for the simple reason that they actually seem to have some intelligence and self-awareness, and are just playing up the more stupid-sounding parts of themselves for the game. This could be a clever strategy, but I’m not sure they can pull it off. But hey, they’re likeable and funny, and on this season, those are rarities, so I’ll take them. In fairness, I think Drew actually stands a decent chance, and should definitely at least make the early merge. If only for the salesmanship experience, I think Drew could actually pull out a win. I doubt it enough to not make him my pick to win, only because I don’t think the surfer-dude thing is ENTIRELY a put-on, and he’ll put his foot in his mouth at some point, and be gone that way. The same goes for Alec, only I think he has less control, and thus will be out right before the merge. Again, nice guys, and more on top of things than SOME of these other players, but I wouldn’t be on Alec to win, and even with his skills I’d call Drew a longshot.
Seeing as how there aren’t half-a-dozen twists like with the LAST “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, I can actually talk about the big one here. It’s been well-publicized that Redemption Island was nixed for this season, but that CBS had a bold, new twist they were going to use the location for. That twist… is Exile Island. Yes, after being absent for over five years, the Exile Island Twist returns, and I couldn’t be more thrilled. I’ve long said that the Exile Island twist still had legs, and there was more that could be done with it after it was nixed. Bringing it back here works really well, adding a new dynamic to the family relationships (or romantic relationships as the case may be), and its absence means the twist will come as a real shock. Then again, maybe I’m just happy to see one of my favorite twists come back. That said, one thing that does give me trepidation is that CBS has stated that loved ones will duel, with the winner getting some reward and the loser going to Exile Island. Not sure how that will work beyond that, but I doubly worry that this will replace Reward Challenges (one of my longstanding criticisms of the Redemption Island Twist), and that it’s another set-up to cause drama and split up relationships for the sake of good television, which is NOT how the twist should go. Still, seeing as the first season managed to avoid that pitfall, I’m willing to give it a chance.
Exile Island is about the only good news, though, because from what I can tell, the cast of this season SUCKS! There’s BARELY any strategists (and even that’s a stretch). You could argue that this is a character based season, but half of the cast is bland and forgettable, and of those that AREN’T, half of them are blatant stereotypes or annoying as hell (or both)! This season may surprise me, but I think the streak of good seasons is at an end. What’s particularly disappointing is the women this season. With the exception of “Survivor Cagayan”, every season from “Survivor South Pacific” onward has had a bunch of really good female characters, but this season rally dropped the ball. I had to stretch to find ANYONE worthy of the title of “female pick to win it all”, and even now I’m not satisfied. On top of all this, CBS is REALLY pushing the “this is like ‘Survivor Blood vs. Water’” aspect, which is never good. Besides using clips from the original season in all the advertising, a lot of the couples cast are eerily similar to those from that season. Look one of the great things about “Survivor” is that it’s constantly innovation. In theory, no seasons are interchangeable, because each brings it’s own unique spin. Yet when you so blatantly reuse a twist, you stop that innovation, you stop what makes “Survivor” great, and that’s just wrong.
Still, I’ve been VERY wrong about casts before, and this one has a FEW people I like, so maybe it’ll surprise me. Besides, I do at least have ONE good thing to say about this cast: they’re diverse. Yes, for once the show seems to be hearkening back to its roots, and taking mostly people who actually APPLIED, rather than casting people they meet on the street. While they’re stereotypes, we at least have many DIFFERENT stereotypes, meaning that for once, the Probst narration of “All from different walks of life” will actually be true.
Whether I am right or not remains to be seen. See you in a month at the 90-minute premier!
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.