Idol Speculation: “Survivor David vs. Goliath” Finale: Diary of a Whiny Castaway

Yes, the title joke is blatantly stolen from Mike White. No, I’m not sorry. That joke was too good not to reuse.

Apologies in advance if this blog is a bit short by my usual standards for a finale. Although I for once took the precaution of using some personal time to come in late to work tomorrow, I still have to go, and therefore any shortening of time is good for me.

Pretense is thrown out the window post Tribal-Council. There’s idols in them thar hills, and our plucky contestants mean to find them. Everyone goes out to search in a hilariously edited montage that does a good job of misdirecting us, having the music swell multiple times when different people are looking in trees. Ultimately, Angelina fulfills her own prophecy of the season by finding an idol, or at least a clue to one. Taking a leaf out of the “Survivor Kaoh Rong” playbook, the idol is hidden in a hard-to-reach place, and requires a tool (specifically a ladder) to get. I actually kind of like this execution better than the original, because there’s not really a way to find a substitute for a tool. True, this does limit individual ingenuity, but it also makes the inclusion of a ladder feel, well, not pointless.

Angelina, for all the flak I’ve given her (and will continue to give her), is not an idiot, and so decides that putting up a very noticeable ladder in a common area of camp MIGHT be noticed during a massive idol hunt, and so waits for a more opportune moment. Or at least she would, but she lost the clue telling her of the idol’s location, and thus she decides to act immediately. Unfortunately for Angelina, she goes a bit too far, scaling the entire cliffside trying in vain to find the idol. I’d make fun of this, but bear in mind that this is the show that once featured Dan Kay (“Survivor Gabon”), the man who somehow interpreted a clue telling him to look “Across the lake…[in] a sandy crater.” as a call for him to look IN the lake. Comparatively, Angelina hit a bullseye.

This does mean that Angelina, while doing a good job of hiding the ladder later, cannot sneak back into camp unnoticed. Now, with everyone out idol hunting, Angelina’s behavior should not seem that suspicious. She’s walking, looking for the idol, just like everyone else. But no, because it’s Angelina, it has to be convoluted as hell. She feigns a back injury, even going to far as to have Dr. Alison take a look at it. I can’t deny that it’s a good bit of deception, but it seems pointless for something that could really hit home to a lot of people. Remember, this season’s first boot was a medical leave due to back injury. Maybe not something you want to play on the sympathies of, particularly this season.

Our first immunity challenge is your standard obstacle course/puzzle combo that bears little mention, though I must say I find the puzzle odd. Not difficult, mind you, but odd. It’s basically a square jigsaw puzzle, but the usual strategy of working from the edge in is actually the OPPOSITE of the easy way to do things here. With everything cut at nice right angles, there’s no way to tell what is and isn’t an edge piece, except by color, but at that point you’re better off building the logo portion and working from there.

Also, I notice that we now have taken steps to prevent what happened last season on this sort of challenge, where Probst makes it clear that you must step away and declare that you have finished to win. I hereby dub this the “Wendell Holland Contingency”.

To the surprise of absolutely no one, this challenge comes down to the puzzle, and Nick pulls out a win. In addition, he gets spaghetti dinner for himself, and ultimately two others. His first pick is Angelina, which is understandable. After all, she’s a potential ally of his, and she did just hurt her back. Though if I were Nick, I would emphasize this point more. Maybe it’s just me, but it would seem REALLY suspicious if someone claimed to hurt their back, but didn’t want medical to at least take a look. I’d be emphasizing to Probst “Yeah man, I really feel bad for Angelina. I mean, she hurt her back and all. Came back to camp moaning and groaning. Sure hope nothing’s seriously wrong with it.”, in the hope that a medical evacuation might get me one step closer to that prize. Nick’s second choice is Mike, which I can understand. After taking Angelina, there’s not really a “right” or “wrong” choice here. What there is is bad justification, which is what Nick has. At this point, he’s clearly taking his old Jabeni tribemates, and fair enough. But you want to HIDE that fact, so that no one cottons on, and tries to break up your alliance. Instead, Nick flat out states that this is what he’s doing.

Fortunately, he might have an idol to back him up. To further torment Angelina, the spaghetti feast is held by the water well, where the aforementioned cliff is. Talk turns to whether Alison (the current target for the night, more on that later) has an idol. Mike speculates that she does not, but turns to Angelina for her opinion. All Angelina has to do here is say “No.” Very simple, but effective, lie that keeps her secrets to herself, but also keeps her alliance in power. Instead, Angelina breaks down, and enlists their help in getting the idol, which she eventually claims. I can’t fault her too much here, since these are her close allies, and having more information does prevent people panicking and messing up plans accordingly. That said, I feel like had Angelina played this a little better, she might have had her proverbial cake and eaten it as well. Having a confident alliance AND an idol no one knows about.

On the subject of cake, I must dispute this being a “reward”. Food is good and all, but you gave them RED VELVET CAKE? Shame on you, “Survivor”.

Moving onto the target for the night, in a gorgeous transition between groups (our diners say “cheers” with wine, and then we cut to the same shot with cups of rice with our losers), we see that, indeed, Nick’s Jabeni comment was not unnoticed. All agree that something needs to be done about that group and… do absolutely nothing. Davie’s hitched his horse to Nick, and that’s that. Dammit, Davie, if you weren’t so charming, I would have a real issue with you right now!

So, our diners get to decide the target tonight. Alison’s name is brought up (to no one’s surprise, since it’s basically tradition at this point), but it’s not who you think it would be. Angelina is the most gung-ho about getting her out, along with Nick. Now Nick, it makes sense why he’d want Alison out. Davie is the only other really viable target, and keeping Davie around is good for Nick. It’s someone who’s arguably more of a jury threat than he is, gives him another ally to work with, and in general keeps Nick in control. For Angelina, though, what’s the benefit? Davie’s probably not going to work with her, and while Alison’s a threat, so is Davie. Alison could probably sway a jury very well, but there are counter arguments to her game. In regards to Davie? To steal another quote, this time from Teresa Cooper (“Survivor Africa”) “What can you say that’s bad about Davie? Nothing!” Only Mike is the lone voice of dissent, quickly becoming our outlet of good strategy now that he’s off the “Goliath Strong” train. He makes all the points that I’ve just made, thereby making him the smartest person left in the game.

But how to make his pitch? Nick’s clearly never going to go for it, and while it would be in Angelina’s best interest to eliminate Davie, she’s dead-set on Alison leaving the game. Mike rightly points out that for his persuasion to work, he’ll have to make Angelina think it was her idea. Naturally, when he pitches the plot to her, he instead frames it purely strategically, and does nothing to convince her to come up with the idea herself. Again, BRILLIANT idea from Mike. Now if only we could see it actually be done.

For all my complaining, there is actually decent mystery going into this Tribal Council. True, the smart thing has usually been done in terms of vote-offs this season, and if I were a gambling man, I’d go for Davie going home, but I could also see scenarios where Alison is the target. Still, the smart thing continues to happen, and Davie is evicted. You can bet that I’m sorry to see him go. Davie may not have been the biggest character this season, but that’s more of a testament to how many big characters there were this season than to Davie himself. The dude exudes charm from his every orifice, and it’s a shame that he had to go. It also means we’ve lost our last arguably universally liked potential winner this season, but more on that later.

Oh, and as he leaves, Davie states that the one orchestrating his elimination will get his vote. Bur sure, show, keep telling us that the new Final Tribal Council format changes minds. Clearly these people are coming in with NO preconceived notions of who they want to win whatsoever.

There are good ways to handle being blindsided, and there are bad ways to handle being blindsided. Nick somehow manages to find a worse way. Ok, ok, I exaggerate somewhat, but the dude really does not acquire himself here. His assessment of the situation is spot-on: Mike insisted on getting his way, leaving Nick proverbially out in the cold. Nick has every right to be upset. However, by whining about it for all to hear, you lose shots at potential allies and any chance you might have of getting by without immunity. When people are rolling their eyes at your loss, there’s little helping you.

Our second immunity challenge has contestants stand atop a tall pole. there, they must haul up leaky buckets of water to use to fill a bamboo chute, raising a key. This key unlocks a block puzzle, with the first person to solve that puzzle winning immunity. Yes, this is a reused challenge. No, I don’t care. Why? Because this is the same challenge that Kass McQuillen had that amazing comeback on during “Survivor Cagayan”, and anything that reminds me of that is a thumbs-up in my book.

With Nick winning immunity, Alison is firmly on the chopping block at this point. Even Mike has little reason to keep her. This should satisfy Angelina’s vendetta, right? No, she wants more. Well, she does have that idol that she found, and tonight’s the last night she can play it. No, she wants more. Not content with a mere idol play, Angelina wants a CORRECT idol play. Thus, she concocts a convoluted plan where Mike gets Kara and Alison to pile their votes on Angelina so that Angelina can then negate those votes. Now, for all my snark, this is a good plan for Angelina. It makes her look even better in front of the jury, and at this point, she needs every advantage she can get. The flaw here is that there’s no incentive for MIKE to execute this plan. Why, at this juncture, would someone do something that makes someone ELSE look better, and gains them no visible benefit? Unless they were an idiot, they wouldn’t and Mike is not an idiot. He spills the plan to Kara, who in turn spills it to Alison. This show of trust and good faith leads Kara to target Mike. Wait, what?

Ok, ok, with Nick and Angelina immune, Mike is the only other viable target for Kara and Alison as a pair, but really? Mike just displayed about as complete a trust in you as could be imagined, and you reward him with betrayal? Typical “Survivor”, but still weird nonetheless.

Yeah, if it wasn’t already clear, this misdirection does not live up to its predecessor. Nick may have a vendetta to fill, but he also wouldn’t sabotage his game this way. There’s no way Alison doesn’t go home, so instead, let’s take a moment to acknowledge Mike’s big blunder for the night. He foolishly decides to take a leaf out of Spencer Bledsoe’s playbook, circa “Survivor Cambodia”, and berate a contestant for little reason shortly before Final Tribal Council. In this case, Angelina, the obvious target, makes a token effort at switching the target, noting how Mike is a “threat”. She doesn’t even put any emotion behind it, instead just going for a calm, logical argument. This leads to Mike going off on her, stating that she’s lost her dignity, and in general makes her out to be scum of the earth for not just rolling over and dying. Need I say more about the wrongness of Mike here. In general I like you, man, but a loss of respect points!

Alison leaves, and while I do personally like her on the show, I can’t be too sorry to see her go. She was a decent enough strategist, but wasn’t a stand-out character, and so there’s not too great a loss. Personally, though? Miss her a great deal.

Also, fun fact: With Alison’s departure, this marks the first time since the inception of the “Two tribe to three tribe swap” that a member of the newly created tribe has not made the Final Tribal Council.

Our final immunity challenge is “Simmotion”. Because, you know, THAT wasn’t an underwhelming final challenge in past seasons!

With Nick’s victory in this challenge, his winning of the season is now all but assured, but sure, let’s put up the pretense of some actual debate here. Everyone comes to Nick to state their case in admittedly a pretty funny scene, what with people saying things that contradict each other. Nick then throws out the pretense of debate by stating what we all knew to be true: that Angelina will never win, so he’s taking her, and letting Mike and Kara duke it out. I admire the bluntness, but I think this move could have been pulled off better with a bit more subtlety. If I’m Nick, I really want Kara to win this final challenge, both because Mike is the biggest threat to my winning the game, and because of my vendetta. To do so, I need Mike not to practice fire-making. Hence, I tell Kara that she’s going to fire making in private, I tell Angelina that she’s safe but ask her to practice making fire to keep up pretenses, and I spin Mike a tale about how I’m taking him to the finals. Why would Mike buy this? Recall that Mike is a superfan, and thus knows all about the show, in particular the last couple seasons. If you recall, the winner of that fire-making challenge won both times, in part due to that last chance to boast before Final Tribal Council. Tell Mike that you don’t want him to have that advantage, and thus won’t risk him winning that challenge. A bit weak, admittedly, but it has a logic I could see Mike buying.

Mike is nervous before the challenge, while Kara is confident. Naturally, this means Mike wins. As if that wasn’t enough, evidently the “Orange Curse” from “Survivor Ghost Island” carried over to this season, as Kara was at the unlucky orange station this time around, and lost. As to her exit, I’m not really sorry to see Kara go. There’s nothing offensive about her, but on “Survivor”, she was kind of a nice, quiet non-entity, and thus no real loss for the show.

One upside to the new Final Tribal Council format: I don’t have to spend time dissecting each individual jury question, and can just talk about those points that stand out to me. This season has two. One is Gabby giving Angelina credit that part of the negative perception of her might be due to her being a woman. And yeah, this is a fair point. We expect genders to conform to certain types of gameplay, and when they don’t, we get offended. I can see this happening in general, and in particular, I can see it in Angelina’s case. However, I still have to criticize her game. Trumpeting one’s own accomplishments is not something to scoff at, and arguably necessary for winning the game. It is not Angelina’s actions that make her bad at “Survivor”. Now, it’s her execution of those actions that make her bad at “Survivor”. You want to bring up your accomplishments, but NATURALLY. Work them subtly into the conversation, almost let people remind themselves of it. By shoehorning yourself in everywhere, and reminding people of your “altruistic” acts, you come off as forced, desperate, and as Davie pointed out, disingenuous. So yes, Angelina may be unfairly piled upon because of her gender. That does not excuse other parts of her poor gameplay.

The other thing to mention about this Final Tribal Council? Well, while some are more talkative than others, most everybody gets in one or two points, and seems like a contributor. Save for Carl, who just waits until the end, and caps things off with a zinger. I cannot think of a more appropriate way to end Final Tribal Council for this season.

While Nick is the clear frontrunner, with Mike still in the mix, there is at least a bit of mystery. True, Mike did kind of shoot himself in the foot on the Alison boot, but he’s still charming, and has some friends on the jury. Adding onto this, the editors pull a few tricks to make it look as though Mike might actually win. He’s saved for last in the pre-Final Tribal Council summary (a spot usually reserved for the winner), he gets many nice “growth” confessionals for himself, and when the votes are read, Nick first gets one, then Mike gets three, implying a blowout. Clever move, editors. They’re getting better. You’ve got to admit it. They are getting better.

Nick’s win, in a way, actually explains a lot about this season, and how it was marketed. Much like “Survivor Kaoh Rong” before it, this season was not hyped much before it aired, yet as the season progressed, it turned out to be so good, people began to question what was happening. So, like with “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, it was speculated that the ending was so bad that it brought down the season. And while this season’s outcome is nowhere near as unsatisfying as that of “Survivor Kaoh Rong” (though, to avoid starting a flame war again, that season’s problems were largely the fault of the EDITORS, nor Michele, Aubry, or the jury), it’s still not what we would want to see. It’s weird to say this about a season with a generally likable cast, and no major antagonists, but the villain kind of won in this case. I don’t see any real hate for anyone in the case (which is one of the things that makes this season so great), but think about our finalists. Did you really want any of them to win? Probably not. You wouldn’t be unhappy at their winning, but you’re not jumping out of your seat with excitement either. Don’t get me wrong, Nick EARNED his victory, playing from the bottom and still managing to come out on top. But Nick is kind of a modern-day Richard Hatch (“Survivor Borneo”). From a strategic perspective, he was fine, and did nothing that was particularly offensive. But did you really WANT to see him win. Their annoying personality traits differ (Hatch was more arrogant, while Nick more whiny, though both had those aspects to their personalities as well), but the outcome is the same: A winner who’s not scum of the earth, but who you can’t fully get behind either. It leads to an underwhelming outcome, is what I’m saying.

Speaking of underwhelming, let’s talk reunion show! Actually, despite my snark, this is the best the reunion show’s been in quite a while! True, it’s still too short, and I’m mad some people didn’t get questions, but you know what? We had questions we ACTUALLY wanted to hear about, and talked to a variety of people, not just our finalists. Hell, even the segments mid-show kind of worked. Davie was charming, and if you’re going to get strategy input from a past contestant, Zeke Smith (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X.” is a good choice. He’s smart, but not overused, and leads to a good bit about how he and his boyfriend met. If you’re going to interrupt show time with this, then this is the way to interrupt it. I’m sure some people want me to talk about the preview for next season, but I’m going to save that for the end, after I give my overall thoughts on the current season. It will be clear then why.

For now, let’s dissect how accurate my preseason predictions were. Yes, I know there’s normally a “Top 5 and Bottom 5” here, but, though it pains me to say so, I think I have to stop trying to do those segments at the beginning and end of a season. I’ll do it if somethings stands out, and I’ll still try and do at least one list a season, but the sad fact is, I’m running out of topics that aren’t an overly-narrow superlative. If I’m going to keep this up, I need to pace myself, and that means fewer a season. Plus, this keeps the blog shorter, which as mentioned before, is somewhat high on my list of priorities with my job. Now, onto my inaccurate predictions.

BI-Wrong. Just straight-up wrong. Man, what a depressing way to start out this recap.
CARL-He made it slightly farther than I thought, but given how I nailed his personality, I’ll say I was right on this one overall.

CHRISTIAN-Again, pretty much dead right, both in personality and time in the game.

DAVIE-He didn’t win, but he came close, and was charming. Another correct call. Huh. Maybe I undersold myself.

ELIZABETH-Not the worst call I’ve ever made, but I was wrong nonetheless. I definitely underestimated her.

GABBY-Wrong, thankfully, though due to the editing, I didn’t end up loving her as much as I thought I would.

JESSICA-Completely right. Enough said.

LYRSA-I guess I can technically count this as another win, since I had her time in the game pegged, but her personality and game overall were so much better than I credited that it still feels like I was wrong.

NICK-Wrong. I thought he had no shot. Turned out he did.

PAT-Wrong, though with a medical evacuation, it’s always wrong with an asterisk.

ALEC-Wrong on time in the game, though right on brains.

ALISON-She played a quieter game than I anticipated, but I was otherwise right with her.

ANGELINA-Wrong. WAY wrong. “Unmemorable” is not a word I would now use to describe Angelina.

DAN-Pretty much right, though I overestimated his intelligence.

JEREMY-I’ll admit, I forgot what I wrote about him initially. Turns out I was right on the money. Go me.

JOHN-The guy was a pleasant surprise. Much better at the game than I thought, making me wrong in his case.

KARA-Wrong on time in the game, still pretty right on personality.

MIKE-Wrong. Dude had more game than I give him credit for.

NATALIA-Wrong. Flip her and Angelina around, though, and I would have been right. Live and learn, I guess.

NATALIE-I end on the note of me being right. I can live with that.

I’ll be blunt: This season is better than it has any damn right to be. You hear about a season called “David vs. Goliath”, and you think it’s a parody. It sounds like an incredibly forced theme hiding the generic Fiji location, and giving us nothing for it. Yet, with a combination of innovative, but not forced, twists, limited focus on the theme, and one of the most likable casts we’ve had in a while, this season turned out amazing! I’m not quite as bullish on it as some people, mostly because I don’t think “Survivor Ghost Island” was that terrible (and i think some of the hype for this season is purely in comparison), but it is definitely a top-tier season for me. This is weird, because for all my compliments, nothing about this season truly stands out. With the possible exceptions of the idol nullifier vote, and Gabby’s attempted coup against Christian, there are no stand-out dramatic moments to make this season truly great. Rather, what makes it great is an overall technical competence and a return to charming basics. In that vein, I personally would compare this season favorably with “Survivor Philippines”, another season that, while it had no real stand-out moments, earned its way in by being consistently good. I would actually give this season the edge over “Survivor Philippines” in this equation, since while the dramatic moments of this season generally came from advantages, rather than players, the moments stand out nonetheless, whereas “Survivor Philippines” really has nothing in that department.

It is in that spirit that I ask the fanbase this: Give “Survivor Edge of Extinction” a chance. Yes, every rumor we hear about the season sounds horrible. Yes, it seems like a poorly conceived idea that only a moron with money and a computer would come up with. But so did “Survivor David vs. Goliath”. I admit, I’m not the most optimistic about what I’ve been hearing. If there’s a lesson to take from this season, however, it’s that even a dumb-sounding idea can work with the right group of people. So please, give the next season a chance to prove itself before dismissing it as awful automatically.

Also, OH MY GOD YOU GUYS, AUBRY’S COMING BACK! THE SEASON HAS TO BE GOOD FOR HER SAKE! SHE’S A TOP-TIER PLAYER WHO DESERVES TO BE ON A TOP-TIER SEASON!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Cambodia” Cast Assessment

Hey everybody! Welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone… oh, wait, that’s what I say when I come back to talking about current seasons after a long break, and this break is decidedly not long. Indeed, it’s actually the shortest break every between blogs, on my end. I started writing the previous blog just over 12 hours ago, and now I get to finish what I started. I’ve professed my love for the cast of the upcoming “Survivor Cambodia” a lot already,b ut it’s not enough. Sure, I’ve admitted to simply loving 80% of the cast, but WHICH 80%? Why do I love the ones that I love? And for those I don’t, who would I have sent out in their place? These questions and more will be revealed in this, my “Survivor Cambodia” cast assessment.

One quick note before we begin: As per usual, on a season with at least half of the contestants being returnees, I’ll be saying who I would have chosen in place of the people I don’t particularly care for. That will be even easier this season, since I actually KNOW who was in the running. After all, I voted for them. I should hope I know who they are. Well, with no tribes to organize contestants by as of yet, chronological order it is, meaning we’re starting with:

Kelly Wiglesworth (37, Greensboro, NC. 2nd Place, “Survivor Borneo”): Ah, a classic. While I’ve never been as big a fan of “Survivor Borneo” as some are, I still quite like the season, and you have to give some respect to Kelly. While she may not have been the best strategist of the bunch, and may have fallen prey to some of the moral pontifications that regrettably dotted the show’s first season, Kelly did play an amazing physical game, as well as a stellar social game. She was not rewarded for that, but she came very close, and would, I feel, have been a deserving winner. Plus, she’s the only member of the final four of “Survivor Borneo” to never have been invited back, which I feel is a travesty. That’s why I voted for her, and that’s why I’m happy to see her back. Now, with that said, how do I think she’ll fare? Not very well, sad to say. In her interviews pre-season, Kelly has talked about wanting to change the game, take it back to its roots. Now, those who said this in a “Play with more respect, but still strategically” sort of way, I have full confidence in. However, 15 years past her appearance on the show, Kelly doesn’t seem to have changed very much, and that will be her downfall. There’s always a danger with returnees from a single-digit season that they simply won’t get the game as it is now, and flounder in having to learn the game much more quickly than they otherwise would have. True, pretty much everyone we’ve seen from those single-digit seasons in the modern era has done this well, but that was because Gervase Peterson (“Survivor Borneo”) and Tina Wesson (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) were known for their strategic gameplay ability. It wasn’t a huge stretch to adapt their gameplay to the modern era. Kelly, while a lovely woman in many respects, has never been known for her gameplay. Thus, by attempting to change the game, she will alienate herself from most everyone, leading to an early exit. Add on to this the fact that Kelly is also remembered as an individual challenge threat, and Kelly is definitely out before the merge. She will probably make it through a few votes, but no one will keep her around once the merge draws near.

Kimmi Kappenberg (42, The Woodlands, TX. 12th Place, “Survivor The Australian Outback”): Since we have Kimmi on this season, we’ll naturally be getting the finger-waving stylings of Alicia Callaway (“Survivor The Australian Outback”). Kidding, kidding! Seriously, though I am happy that Kimmi is back. As I said, there’s a fascination with these contestants from older seasons being thrust into a game that’s fairly drastically different than what they’re used to, and Kimmi certainly fits that bill. While I did vote for her, I’m not as wild about her as most. Kimmi did have a fair number of explosive/funny moments on her season, and I look forward to seeing those again from her. That said, like Kelly, I don’t give her any odds to go far in this thing. Kimmi’s big issue last time was the fact that her vegetarian lifestyle separated her from her tribe, and to her credit, I think she’s learned from that experience. While the vegetarian lifestyle is still there, she will probably sit around and chat with her fellow tribemates, which will help ingratiate her to everyone else. So, I do think Kimmi has learned from her mistakes, I just don’t think it’s enough. While I would never call Kimmi “dumb” as the strategic game goes, she’s never shown any sort of brilliance in that area either. Add on to that the fact that, even with joining others at mealtimes, Kimmi’s vegetarianism and loud personality separate her from everyone else, and you’ve got another pre-merge boot for sure. Probably even earlier than Kelly, since Kelly at least brings physical prowess to the table, and while Kimmi’s not weak, it’s just not the same.

Jeff Varner (49, Greensboro, NC. 10th Place “Survivor The Australian Outback”): It’s a good thing I call Jeff Probst “Probst”, or else this season would get really confusing. Jeff Varner was one of my favorites when I first watched “Survivor The Australian Outback”, and while he lost a bit of love on my end for being a bit overly vindictive in some of his confessionals, time has helped heal those wounds. Now he actually seems like a really funny guy who’s actually really savvy at the game. He’s almost like another Jonathan Penner (“Survivor Cook Islands”), and since I liked Penner, how could I not vote for his reincarnation? Yes, Jeff will bring much entertainment to this season, but will also bring a lot of strategy. My fear about “Older-season contestants may have trouble adjusting to the new game” stands, but Jeff is kind of the exception to that. You see, part of the flaw in Jeff’s game is that, I feel, he actually played a modern-era “Survivor” game, but in the early history of the show. Look at it: Jeff made a sub-alliance with one person, started conflict to take the heat off of himself, and was not afraid to take risks to get information. If you want evidence of his strategic prowess, look no further than the Kimmi/Alicia fight on his season. If you look closely during the fight, you can see Jeff walking away. This is because Jeff actually INSTIGATED that fight, taking the heat off of him, and putting Alicia and Kimmi on the chopping block. A very modern “Survivor” move, I would say. Plus, given the fact that Jeff was pretty consistently a target on his season, I’d say it was a smart move, as well. Due to this confidence in his strategic game, I give Jeff Varner very good odds. He definitely makes at least the mid-merge, and I’d even put him the the Mike Holloway (“Survivor Worlds Apart”) dark-horse slot. The slot worked well for Mike this past season, so a Jeff victory on this upcoming one would not surprise me. Fear of “Old Season Bias” prevents me from making him my male pick to win the whole thing, but Jeff’s a good strategist, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he won. My gut says he’s out mid-merge, but I wouldn’t count him out of contention for the title just yet.

Andrew Savage (51, San Jose, CA. 10th Place, “Survivor Pearl Islands”): You would think, as a contestant from my second-favorite season of all time, I’d be crazy about Andrew Savage. And I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t happy about his return on the season. You could argue that Savage is actually the person MOST deserving of a second chance out of anyone here, since he was really screwed over by a twist that many consider unfair. While I’m not as down on the Outcast Twist as some other people are (Yes, it violates the doctrine of “Once the decision is made, the decision is final.”, but it was an obvious idea that had to be tried at least once), I concede that perhaps the person most screwed over by it should have a chance to come and play again. Plus, Savage makes a fair point of “Had we been informed at the beginning, I would have treated those voted out differently.”, though I would point out that if you’re treating those voted out like crap, you probably weren’t winning anyway. I agree that the Outcast Twist shortened Savage’s time in the game, but I think it’s a matter of pre-jury boot vs. jury boot, rather than pre-jury boot vs. victory like Savage thinks. Truth be told, Savage seems so entitled, so full of himself, and STILL hasn’t gotten over his vote-out (it’s been 12 freaking years! Even the hard-core fans are telling you to get a life!) that I almost didn’t vote for him. All that said, I do agree that he may DESERVE a second chance, and it will be interesting to see him back. However, I don’t think Savage will even come close to winning this time around. Savage really only knows one way to play the game, which is as a full-out leader. This works fine on a season where you have a decent number of people on a rudderless tribe, looking for direction, but this season has a LOT of great thinkers on it, so Savage’s utility is limited. I’m a bit remiss to say this, as I do think Savage has a strategic game we haven’t seen the full extent of, but I expect him, like Kelly, to be out shortly before the merge. Due to his personality, I expect him to have trouble finding an alliance, yet be kept around for his strength. Once the merge draws near, though, he becomes a target. He might last a bit longer, since he’s more strategic than Kelly, but I expect him to go out in a similar spot to his first appearance, that being right after the merge. It wouldn’t surprise me if he made the jury, but I don’t expect him to last beyond that.

Terry Deitz (55, Simsbury, CT. 3rd Place, “Survivor Exile Island”): The other reason I don’t think Savage will do well is that his role in the tribe is easily replaced. Terry Deitz is basically the same person as him, though with a few key differences. Terry has less of a strategic game than Savage does, which would seem to be a negative, but it also makes Terry less of a threat. Admittedly, Terry also has a reputation as a challenge beast, which works against him, and is why I doubt he’ll win. However, unlike Savage, I think Terry is humble. His willingness to see his flaws and work to improve them makes me think Terry will last a while. Add on to that the fact that, while Terry definitely likes to lead, I think he’s ok with taking a backseat role, and Terry is definitely outlasting Savage by a bit in this game, I say. I doubt he’ll win the whole thing, since no one in their right mind will take Terry to the end, but I suspect he’ll be kept around for his strength and likability initially. Come the merge, Terry becomes a threat, but I’d say less of one than Savage will be. Unless Terry can go on another amazing immunity streak (which I doubt, since even Terry says he’s not what he used to be physically), he’s probably out around the mid-merge area. That doesn’t mean I don’t like him, though! Terry was one of my early favorites (“Survivor Exile Island” was the first season I watched start to finish on television), has a few witty lines, and is just great tv all around. I feel like he really had All-Star potential, and got jobbed by having to appear right before Ozzy, aka “Challenge Jesus” (“Survivor Cook Islands”), meaning that his role was overshadowed. While I’m not confident in his winning potential, hopefully Terry will have a nice long time in this game, to show us what makes him great.

Peih-Gee Law (37, San Francisco, CA. 5th Place, “Survivor China”): When I initially saw her on the casting poll, I wasn’t too excited about Peih-Gee. True, I voted for her from the get-go, mostly because she had ACTUAL strategic accomplishments, as opposed to many of the women who were also candidates, but it wasn’t until I got to thinking about her that I really got on the “Loving Peih-Gee” train. Peih-Gee got overshadowed on her season by the lovable trio of Todd Herzog, Amanda Kimmell, and James Clement. It didn’t help matters that one of Peih-Gee’s signature moments was arguing with fan-favorite James. Taking the “Love of James” Goggles off, however, Peih-Gee had a good story behind her. She was an underdog, yet through cunning, guile, and a string of immunities, came a few challenges away from winning the whole thing. While she could be annoying, particularly in her early episodes, she learned a fair amount, and like many of the people on this list, a great player who had bad luck with the numbers. Thus, like many, I’ll be interested to see what Peih-Gee can do. Peih-Gee has a particular advantage this time, as she’s a recent enough player to have at least some idea of what the modern game is like, but played long enough ago to really have time to reflect on what she did wrong, and make corrections. I also admire the fact that she admits her game has flaws (something surprisingly few people do), and has tried to work on them. Good for her! And if you want my prediction, I’d say her labors will be rewarded with a good spot, possibly even a victory. I’d be somewhat surprised if she won the whole thing, since she admits that she’s still confrontational, but with better luck, I think her strategic game will shine, and give her a mid-to-late merge exit. I’d even put her in the dark horse spot, along with Jeff Varner. I doubt Peih-Gee will win the whole thing, but it’s a possibility that’s not out of the question.

Stephen Fishbach (36, New York, NY. 2nd Place, “Survivor Tocantins”): Oh man, guys, you really have NO IDEA just how thrilled I am that Stephen is back! One of my favorite strategists ever, I feel that Stephen is greatly underrated, simple due to the fact that he was overshadowed by alliance-mate J.T. While I don’t begrudge J.T. a victory, since he did play an excellent game, I do feel that it’s a travesty that Stephen was shut out of the votes, since his game was actually quite a good one. Hopefully his strategy will get a chance to shine this season, along with that quirky charm that makes Stephen so relatable to many of us. Sadly, while Stephen has probably learned from his mistakes on his first season (mainly taking someone more likable than you to the end), I doubt his improved strategy will bear much fruit. The trouble is that Stephen has become somewhat notorious in the “Survivor” community. He co-hosts “‘Survivor’ Know-It Alls” with “Survivor The Amazon” contestant Rob Cesternino, meaning he’s been involved in analyzing, discussing, and dissecting strategy for a while now, as well as being in close contact with many former contestants, many of whom are on this season. Now, this might seem like a god thing, as it means that Stephen has many connections to draw upon in the game, and is going to more quickly dive into the game than most. And these are advantages. However, since Stephen has been talking to everyone, everyone knows how much he knows about the game. This is the sort of person you don’t keep around for long, if you can avoid it. While Stephen is pretty good at puzzles (remember his performance on that memory challenge?), there are others who can fill that role, and due to his physical weakness (comparatively), there’s not much incentive to keep him around. If I had to give a number, I’d say he’s out before the merge, which is a real shame. Stephen survived being an early target by attaching himself to a power player. hardly a bad strategy, but it’s what lost him the game last time, so I doubt he’ll do that. I admire him for trying to do something different to win, I just don’t think it will work. I hope I’m wrong about his time in the game, since I think he’s amazing, and his strategy may prove me wrong. Sadly, there’s just a certain number of people who need to go before the merge, and I think Stephen is one of them.

Monica Padilla (30, Queens, NY. 7th Place, “Survivor Samoa”): Ok, I’ve been nice to most everybody this blog, but now it’s time for the rage! I said it in my blog last night, and I’ll say it again: WHAT HAS MONICA DONE TO EARN HER SPOT ON THIS SEASON?! To those who put up the “She nearly fooled Russell Hantz” argument, refer you again to the fact that RUPERT (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) of all people, someone commonly acknowledged to have little to no strategic game, managed to fool Russell Hantz. In fact, Rupert did it BETTER, as his fooling of Russell actually achieved the goal of extending his time in the game. Yet, no one is calling Rupert a strategic mastermind because of that move. Why should Monica get credit for failing a move that Rupert was able to perform better than her? Bottom line, I think Monica has no strategic game, and is just another pretty face to look at. I get why such people are cast on seasons where CBS has control over who goes on, since they follow the “People want to see hot, scantily clad men and women” mentality, but as fans of the show, I would HOPE we could have better criteria for picking a cast than THAT! With not strategic game, a terrible challenge track record, and pretty much no redeeming qualities whatsoever (at least in the game, I do not pretend to speak for what she’s like in real life), Monica has no shot at the game. In fact, I’d say she’s first off. She’s another one who strikes me as entitled, and with no physical or strategic game to speak of, my guess is that Monica will be gone at the first opportunity. Now, I could be wrong, as I’m somewhat biased against her, and could see her getting dragged along as a non-threat, but something tells me that Monica is too put out about her performance last season to stay quiet, and that, I think will be her downfall. Monica is the first person on this season who I DIDN’T vote for, and since I’m obviously not a fan of hers, who did I vote for in her place?

Teresa “T-Bird” Cooper (“Survivor Africa”): While there’s plenty of argument as to which possible contestant got jobbed by recency bias, I can’t deny that the loss of T-Bird hit me the hardest out of anyone. She’s was one of the best examples of never underestimating the older women of this game. Despite appearing to be just the nice motherly type, she lasted quite a ways into the game, and never gave up trying to get ahead. She would have brought both niceness and strategy to the game, and so for those reasons, I really wish we had T-Bird this time around.

Abi-Maria Gomes (35, Los Angeles, CA. 5th Place, “Survivor Philippines”): Our only representative from “Survivor Philippines”, and I’m not too happy about it. Abi-Maria is another one I didn’t vote for, just because I didn’t find her all that pleasant on “Survivor Philippines”. She’s not the worst, she’s no Colton Cumbie (“Survivor One World”) or anything, but she really thought a lot of herself, with nothing to back it up. She brought a certain amount of drama, it’s true, but personally, I found that fairly hard to watch, and not as exciting as other drama we got on other seasons. I don’t think Abi-Maria’s the WORST, but she’ll never be one of my favorites. Sadly, unlike Monica, I suspect Abi-Maria will last a while. She’s more well-remembered than Monica, and as her reputation will therefore precede her more so than with Monica, I get the sinking feeling that she’ll be dragged along as a goat at the end. Again, no chance that she’s winning, but I’d call her a late-merge boot at the earliest. I can dream otherwise, but that’s what the strategic part of me says. Even so, I think we could have done better, such as by casting…

Mikayla Wingle (“Survivor South Pacific”): A bit of an odd choice for me to vote for, since I had a hard time remembering who she was at first, and if I can’t remember someone right off, I generally don’t vote for them, but Mikayla is a special case, since I really feel her ouster was undeserved. She was picked upon by Brandon Hantz for his own personal issues, and is one of the few people of all the possibilities who I felt deserved a second chance, as I feel she did nothing wrong in the game, and just had some bad luck. I can understand people not voting for her, since she is hard to remember, and wasn’t all that exciting, but it would have cool to see what she could do in a Hantz-Free season.

Vytas Baskauskas (35, Santa Monica, CA. 10th Place, “Survivor Blood vs. Water”): Another one to be excited about, I’m STOKED that Vytas is back! So stoked, in fact, that I’m using the word “stoked” a term I generally loathe. But that’s just how good Vytas is. Unlike the blandness of his brother, Vytas had edge and wit to him, while still retaining his brother’s charm and strategic game. Vytas is also in a similar situation to Peih-Gee, as he had the makings of a really good strategic game, but was foiled by being down in the numbers, and also by being too large of a threat, due to playing with his brother. What Vytas has over Peih-Gee, though, is that he actually had a few strategic victories during his season. He went the Chris Daugherty (“Survivor Vanuatu” route of managing to overcome being the only man on a tribe of women who wanted him gone, and was even adored by them, to the point where, had he not been playing with his brother, he would have been a real contender to win. Due to this shown strategic prowess, I can’t help but make Vytas my male pick to win it all. Some might say this is a bad idea, as Aras or no Aras, Vytas is still a major threat in the game. However, Vytas has beens how to be able to overcome such deficits before, and if he shows even a third of the strategy he showed on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, he’s going to take the whole thing. The man’s smart, likable, and with enough of a dark side to make those necessary schnook moves in the game. For his strategy, I voted for him, I’m glad he’s in the game, and I wouldn’t change him out for anyone! I expect him to win, hands down.

Ciera Eastin (26, Salem, OR. 5th Place, “Survivor Blood vs. Water”): One of the many positives to the “Survivor Blood vs. Water” season was that, while it did have returning castaways, the new players were able to hold up to them, not only as characters, but also as strategists. While Vytas may be the prime example of this, one must not discount Ciera. Although she had bad timing on a few of her moves (notably flipping on Tyson’s alliance one Tribal Council too late), her ideas were good, and she has a few victories to her name. She voted out her mom, which, while maybe not s big a deal as the show made it out to be (part of the game, after all), is still a gutsy move, showing that she’s willing to do whatever it takes to get ahead. on top of that, people forget her deception of Katie Collins, which was incredibly well-done, and helped cement her as a really good “Survivor” strategist. She may be a beauty, but she’s not brainless like so many of them are, and since she’ll add some strategy and drama, I am more than happy to welcome her back to the show. My liking of her may be clear, but how I think she’ll do in the game is less so. My gut instinct is to say she’ll crumble early, like I thought she would on her season, but she’s showed that she’s tougher than that. I also get the feeling that her strategic prowess will have improved, making her a threat to win. I feel like she’s either someone who will be one of the first out, or one of the finalists, so I’ll split the difference and say she’s an early merge boot. Not pathetic enough to be an early target, but too much of a strategic threat to avoid a late-game target. She’ll definitely be a lot of fun to watch, though.

Latasha “Tasha” Fox (39, St. Louis, MO. 6th Place, “Survivor Cagayan”): While I debate the way Probst defines who deserves a second chance, that being “People who could have been All-Stars, but weren’t quite the right material”, one unifying theme I DO see, by and large, is people screwed over by luck. This isn’t a universal to everyone on this season, but for a lot of them, there was a really good strategic game, and they were only put out due to bad luck with the numbers, or, in the case of Blood vs. Water seasons, association with another person. Tasha is definitely one of those people. I initially underestimated her in the game, and it’s one of my biggest mistakes ever in the blog. Tasha showed us very quickly that she could strategize with the best of them, and was not afraid to be up front about it. She could get in your face with your stupidity if she needed to, and won over many hearts by proving to be an amazing challenge competitor. All this combined makes Tasha a great character for the show, and one that I’m very happy to see back. Since her strategies were good, and her main flaw was bad luck with the numbers (and also not maintaining her alliance with Kass very well, but she’s learned from that mistake), I feel like Tasha is going to do very well. So well, in fact, that I’m naming her my female pick to win it all. Why you may ask? All those positives to her that I just listed, of course! Some would argue, I’m sure, that a person who’s a strategic and physical threat of the caliber that Tasha is would necessarily be a huge target in the game, and therefore be unable to win. However, while people should be afraid of Tasha in this game, they won’t be. Apart from her being disconcertingly charming, Tasha has the distinct advantage of having played on “Survivor Cagayan” a season so full of characters that she seemed tame by comparison. This means that no one will remember her, and by the time it becomes clear that Tasha is a huge threat to win the game, it will be too late. Unless I miss my guess, Tasha is going to do very well this season, if not win, and I will enjoy watching every minute of it. Voted for her every time, and very glad she made it in.

Spencer Bledsoe (22, Chicago, IL. 4th Place, “Survivor Cagayan”): No one should be surprised Spencer is back, as he also falls into the category of “Ok strategy screwed over by bad numbers luck.” However, I’m less excited about Spencer than Tasha. While I did vote for him, and do agree that Spencer’s game may not have had enough of a chance to flourish, I feel like his game might be slightly overrated, mostly because Spencer can be kind of cocky. The guy really thinks he’s all that and a bag of chips, and while he has more than he showed on the show, I didn’t see much about him that was truly spectacular, like I did with, say, Tasha. You can be on the bottom of an alliance once or twice by luck, but Spencer was NEVER on top, save maybe for the first vote, whereas Tasha actually seemed to be in power for a while pre-merge. Add on to that some of Spencer’s more scathing confessionals (again, the calling of orphans “Little Monsters”, and Kass a “Brain-Dead Weasel”), and I won’t mind if Spencer doesn’t do well. And, if he ends up on a tribe with Savage, he might be out early, as Spencer seems like a “Skinny Ryan” (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) type. Unless that scenario happens, however, (and I think it unlikely, even if he and Savage are on the same team) Spencer is due for a long time in this game. I can see the narrative developing now, because it’s basically what happened with John Cochran on “Survivor Caramoan”. A superfan who had terrible luck with his tribe placement the first time around comes back and shows everyone what he can do. For all that I’ve trash-talked Spencer, he’s not a bad player, and I do give him at least some respect. His strategy will probably flourish this time around, and I expect him to stick around for a while as a result. I hesitate to say he’ll win, as if I can see this narrative developing, others can as well, but like last time, I expect Spencer to stick around until the late merge, and then be voted off. Also, fun fact, Spencer is the youngest person on this season, and one of only four people on this season in their twenties. Pretty impressive for “Survivor” standards.

Kassandra “Kass” McQuillen (42, Tehachapi, CA. 3rd Place, “Survivor Cagayan”): Like I’ve said before, Kass is one of my favorite players, if not my favorite player, from recent seasons, and I feel like she got a raw deal with the edit. As such, I’m very glad she gets a chance at redemption this time around. Kass will bring an explosive personality to this season that will be much enjoyed, but also an unwillingness to give up, and a lot of good strategy talk. I feel like, particularly after the ribbing she got after her first season, Kass will have learned a lot, and be able to improve upon her gameplay from last time. Sad to say, I doubt she’ll get a chance to show her improved game. Reputation precedes you on seasons with returning contestants, particularly those seasons that happened recently with regards to the current season. As mentioned, Kass did not come off looking the best on her season, and as such I suspect she’ll be an early boot, definitely before the merge. Does this mean I think Kass is dead on arrival? Absolutely not! People forget that Kass was actually quite a subtle player early in the game, and only caused chaos post-merge, when she perceived herself as being on the bottom, and having no other recourse. I actually think that’s pretty good strategy on her part, and if she can play a good pre-merge game, I think she has a decent shot at making it far. Basically, the first few days are going to be crucial to Kass. Due to her reputation as causing chaos for her allies late game, people will be disinclined to work with her, and it could see an early exit for her. If, however, she makes it through the first few Tribal Councils, either by her tribe winning immunity or by finding a few people to work with (Abi-Maria and Jeff Varner both seem like likely candidates), Kass could make it very deep in this game. If she really has learned as much as she says she has, she could even be a threat to win it. Sadly, the more likely scenario, I feel, is that she will be vilified for her previous game, and be a very early boot. I like to think that her guile and strategy will prevent her from being the VERY first one off, but it wouldn’t surprise me if she left around that time. This is a real shame, as I feel that Kass has a lot to offer. She can come up with a good strategy when she wants, and lest we forget, she’s very good at reading people. Those who just dismiss her outright are missing a lot of positives. Despite her low chance of success, I’m very much rooting for Kass in this game, and am glad she’s in. Deciding who to root for was tough this time around, as a lot of my old favorites are back (Terry, Stephen, and Jeremy, for example), but I decided on Kass because I feel like she needs more love, and her winning would make for a very exciting game. I’m not rooting AGAINST any of my former favorites, but Kass is definitely the one I’m most excited about. Plus she has the endorsement of the Queen of “Survivor”, Sandra Diaz-Twine (“Survivor Pearl Islands”). How can I argue with that?

Yung “Woo” Hwang (31, Newport Beach, CA. 2nd Place, “Survivor Cagayan”): It speaks to the strengths of “Survivor Cagayan” that it has the most players returning this season when compared to the other seasons available. True, a lot of that is having more choices in the voting pool as a whole compared to every season except “Survivor Worlds Apart”, but it’s still impressive. And, unlike a lot of fans, if the internet is to be believed, I’m actually THRILLED that Woo is back. Another season of “Ninja Stealth Mode” and “Sonic Speed!” confessionals is quite all right with me. I get the criticism: Woo can seem kind of bland, and doesn’t really bring much strategy to the table. But even I, the man who advocates for more strategists on every season, will admit that a season filled with entirely strategists would get a bit bland. You need some fun, non-strategists to balance a season out, and Woo fills that role quite nicely. He’s non-offensive, and gets a funny confessional every now and again, so I’m perfectly happy to have him on another season. And while I stand behind my prediction that he can’t win (which I said on “Survivor Cagayan”), I still think he’ll do well. There’s enough smart people here to realize that taking the strong yet stupid is a great strategy: you can control such people pre-merge, and they’re great targets post-merge. Woo fits this description to a t, and so he’ll be kept around until at least the merge. He has the potential to win a few challenges, so I’d expect him to get booted around the mid-merge part of the season, but even if not, we’ll be getting several episodes of Woo, and the season will be all the better for it, I say.

Kelley Wentworth (29, Seattle, WA. 14th Place, “Survivor San Juan del Sur”): One of only two people returning this season to not make the merge on their original season (Kimmi being the other), I’m quite glad Kelley is back, even if it means that between her and Kelly Wiglesworth, I’ll have to watch my spelling. She played an under-the-radar game her first time around, which does make her forgettable, but I feel like there was evidence there to show that she could have had a great game in her. With that in mind, I’m hopeful that she’ll be able to show what she’s made of this season. On top of this, Kelley is also one person who I feel got a raw deal on her original season, as she was well set-up until a tribe swap tarred her with the same brush as her father, prematurely ending her game. She’s one of the few choices I had whom I felt “deserved” a second chance, since her game was ended through little fault of her own. With that in mind, while I don’t think Kelley will be the most EXCITING contestant this season, I look for her to do well this time around. Like I said, there’s evidence to suggest that Kelley can have a great game in her, and since she’s not the most well-remembered, she won’t be a target early on. I think Kelley will be sticking around for a while, definitely until the late merge, and may even make the final. I’m not sure her game is aggressive enough for her to win in a Final Tribal Council, but I’d look for her to stick around for a very long time.

Jeremy Collins (37, Foxboro, MA. 10th Place, “Survivor San Juan del Sur”): While you can’t really say that it was luck that screwed over Jeremy’s game, I still feel like it was ended prematurely. The man wasn’t playing badly, he just got too secure in his position. Happens to a lot of people. I feel like he’s learned from his mistakes, and his strategy might get a chance to shine this time around. Add to that a likable personality and a few fun confessionals, and I’m really glad Jeremy’s on this season. Another good strategist to add to the mix. However, I don’t like Jeremy’s chances quite as much as I did last time. Jeremy, as I said, is a good strategist and a likable guy. Last time, though, he was a big fish in a small pond. Let’s face it, “Survivor San Juan del Sur” did not have the greatest strategic minds of the day (cue Drew Christy saying “Basically, I’m a badass.”), and while Jeremy is still a good strategist in his own right, he’s not exactly spectacular like some of these strategists are. Rather than being a big fish in a small pond, Jeremy is now a medium fish in a medium pond. He’s not bad, but I feel he’s outclassed by some of these returnees. His niceness also works against him, as it’s a threat come the merge. As such, I feel Jeremy will be out shortly after the merge, much like he was on his first season. I still like the guy, and hope he proves me wrong, but I feel he’s just outclassed by his competition.

Keith Nale (54, Keithville, LA. 4th Place, “Survivor San Juan del Sur”): Uugh, did we really need KEITH back again? Don’t get me wrong, he’s not the WORST choice that could have been made (we could have had “Survivor Blood vs. Water”’s Brad Culpepper), but he’s not a great choice. He’s the ultimate redneck stereotype, what with the spitting and the idiocy, and it all just left a bad taste in my mouth. I guess it’s pretty cool that he’s an older guy who still did well at challenges, but we get that with Terry and Savage as well, so I don’t see what void Keith fills in particular. He’s just not that fun to watch, and I really wish he wasn’t coming back. Thankfully, I think he’ll be out early. Keith is remembered for his “Stick to the plan” gaffe, and no strategist worth their salt is going to want to keep that around for any length of time, lest he ruin their plans as well. On top of that, as mentioned he’s a physical threat, which you’d normally want to keep around to help with challenges at the merge. However, we already have physical threats aplenty this season, and so Keith can easily be phased out for someone who WON’T say stupid things at Tribal Council. He’s out early, for sure. Definitely before the merge. But who did I vote for, if not Keith?

Shane Powers (“Survivor Exile Island”): While T-Bird’s snub hurt me the most, logically it’s Shane who was hurt the most by recency bias. T-Bird hasn’t really been discussed for a while, especially since “Survivor Africa” was not the most popular season, but Shane has been slated to come back a number of times now, which just never work out. Plus, it keeps him in the minds of hard-core fans, and so his snub is the only real clear indication of casual fans having too much influence. Shane was crazy int he fun way, and while he could get annoying sometimes, you felt like he had a good heart. On top of this, he actually had one or two bits of strategy in him, which makes him much more interesting than Keith. Hopefully, Shane gets another chance down the road, because taking Keith over him was just a horrible choice.

Joe Anglim (25, Scottsdale, AZ. 10th Place, “Survivor Worlds Apart”): Really? joe’s the best we can do? Don’t get me wrong, I don’t OBJECT to Joe per se. He seems like a nice enough guy, is good at challenges, and hoas a bit or two of strategy in him. But he’s just so GENERIC! If we’re going to have a designated “Nice guy” on the season, I feel like Woo fills that void much better. Like I said, I can’t object to Joe too much, since there’s nothing BAD about him, but I feel like there are better choices to be had. As to how I think he’ll do, I think it’s about the same as this past season. Joe hasn’t had a real chance to reflect on what he did wrong in the game (especially since his game has not come under a lot of scrutiny), so he’ll play pretty much the same, and finish the same: out right after the merge. The guy’s too big of a threat to keep around, and while his prowess and niceness might save him early on, once the competition becomes individual, he’s done for. Still, if he’s so generic, who would I have put in his place?

Max Dawson (“Survivor Worlds Apart”): I get why people chose Joe over Max, and I’ll admit a lot of this is my personal bias seeping through. However, I feel Max got an undeserved bad reputation on this season, and unlike Joe, his game came under such scrutiny that Max probably has learned a thing or two, and would have changed up his game as a result. Maybe I’d just like to see superfans do better in this game, but I really think Max would have been an interesting player to see back. More so than Joe, at any rate.

Shirin Oskooi (32, San Francisco, CA. 8th Place, “Survivor Worlds Apart”): And so we come to the end of our cast, ending on a high note, I feel like. My more astute readers will not that I’ve said I only object to four people on this cast, and I’ve already voiced my objects to four people (Monica, Abi-Maria, Keith, and Joe). Yet, I’ve also said that I don’t want Shirin back for another season. What gives? Well, I won’t deny that I’m not as excited about Shirin as I am some others, but I am happy she’s back. A lot of it was just a sympathy vote. Shirin, like Max, had it unfairly rough not his season, though it was taken one step further by having the attacks be incredibly personal. Plus, she a superfan whose game seemed to be improving as she went along, and I’d like to see that story concluded with Shirin being a good strategist. Maybe I’m just sentimental, but I look forward to seeing how Shirin will do. If I predict correctly, she will do well. She still has her “crazy” reputation, but I feel like she’s tempering it more and more, which will work to her advantage. People will keep her around, thinking they can beat her, when in actuality, she’s playing quite well. Her not fangirling over everything “Survivor” will help keep her head in the game, and I think, with a bit more work, Shirin, could become a great strategist. I’d look for her to go out in the mid-to-late merge, as I’m not sure she’s had enough time to contemplate her flaws in the game, but even so, I think she’ll improve from this season.

And there you have it. A few odd choices aside, I think we might ACTUALLY have one of the best casts ever (take note, Probst). I look forward to seeing how this all plays out, but am annoyed we have to wait so many months for it to happen. Well, in the meantime, I’ll be taking a short hiatus, and then come back with more of my “Survivor Retrospectives” series, so you can look forward to that. As per usual, that will stop once the cast is re-announced in the fall. I may or may not do another cast assessment then, but I’ll definitely stop. I have most of the information I need for my cast assessment blog here, but things could change once I find out who’s on what tribe. If my stances on enough people change as a result, I’ll do a new one. Otherwise, enjoy “Survivor Retrospectives”, and I’ll see you back in September for the premiere of what should be the awesome “Survivor Cambodia”!

-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Worlds Apart” Finale: Where’s Will, Though?

Ah, what a great finale! The suspense was high, the finalists were (mostly) likable and well-strategized, and the show even made great strides towards making this season’s assholes (Will and Rodney) into somewhat good people. Sadly, as in the words of Jenna Lewis on “Survivor Borneo”: “A little too little too late.” Yes, giving a character an arc in which they grow and develop in some way, even if that show is “Survivor”. However, you need to start doing that BEFORE THE LAST EPISODE OF THE SEASON! But, as I so often do with this blog, I’m getting ahead of myself, and there’s actually a lot to talk about tonight, so let’s dive right in.

After the extra-long “Previously On..” segment, in which Probst once again tries in vain to convince us that the “Collars” twist is interesting and innovative, we get back to camp, where Carolyn tries to figure out who voted WITH her, somehow not realizing that Mike is the only option. She asks Will, who says no, before everybody huddles up. Mike scoffs at their huddling, saying that the people on the bottom should flip to be with him and get to the finals. All due respect to Mike, I must politely disagree. While I never like to say that people on the bottom should stick with the alliance that will get rid of them soon, Mike is too big a threat to win the game at this point. Mike seems to be under the delusion that just because they’re on the bottom, he’s a good option. He forgets that this doesn’t change the fact that he’s too well-liked and too much a physical and strategic threat to win the game, and this makes him an undesirable ally. Yet he acts like people ganged up on him for no reason, or if there is a reason, for his gaffe at the auction. Dude, you’re getting ganged up on because you’re a huge threat. That’s how the game works. I know it can’t be fun to be the social outcast, but the Mike pity party is getting old real fast.

Even so, Mike’s words ring true, as the foursome get together. Carolyn of course gets a bit miffed at them, since they targeted her, and confesses privately that she now has options in Mike. Despite this, it must not be forgotten that Mike is too big of a threat to keep around (where have I heard that before?), and if he loses, he’s out. Ah nothing brings together individuals quite like a common enemy. It’s actually reminiscent of the post-merge situation on “Survivor Exile Island”. the Casaya tribe was quite dysfunctional, and had several people for whom it might have been in their best interest to flip, but the common enemy of Terry Deitz kept them together. As Terry found, that bond is insurmountable until the final five or four. History really does repeat itself this season.

Well, we get our first challenge, despite the fact that it’s only Day 36, whereas normally the final episode begins Day 37. This is because the “Survivor” Gods saw fit to answer y prayers, and give us a reward challenge! A good one! An epic one! A challenge I can legitimately like after the merge this season (this last one is a case of the show peaking too early, unfortunately, but we’ll get to that later)! True, it is an obstacle course with a lot of elements we’ve seen before (net crawls, shuffleboard, carrying things across see-saws, and combination locks), but it’s definitely a tricky challenge that’s fun to watch. I think, though, what I like the most about it are the little touches. The shuffleboard stage of the challenge lets the contestants know if they got their squares in the hole by having them ding off of a frying pan. The balance portion of the challenge has them balance said squares on the flat of a machete. I’ve said all along that this season lacks a unifying aesthetic theme, and I hold to that for the season overall. This challenge, however, REEKS of theme, mainly from those elements. It looks put together, almost a call-back to “Survivor Borneo” (man, there’s a lot of those tonight) in that it seems like the flotsam from the supposed “shipwreck” that starts each season used to make a challenge. It’s innovative, it fits with island life, it’s just a little touch that I love to death that makes this challenge so great.

But you’ll notice I haven’t talked about what we’re playing for. The other reason for giving us four days in one episode is that this is the family visit reward challenge. It’s the usual “winner takes family member to camp for one evening” reward, and as per usual it gives us a lot of nice moments where you realize that even the most nasty of characters has a soul (take note, Will: EVERYONE has a soul). Most of the loved one reuniting are sweet, but generic. Still, the one that stands out is Rodney reuniting with his Dad, Rodney Sr. At first it’s noticeable for that appalling thing where parents name their children after themselves (as I said back during “Survivor Philippines”, this is the height of ego in my opinion. Even if it is a bit hypocritical, since my own family likes to name their kids “Charles Lysander”, to the point where we have “Charles Lysander III” in the mix), but then Rodney busts out the heartwarming. Making a callback to the first few episodes, he mentions the death of his sister, and has a fairly touching speech about how his time on “Survivor” has helped him come to terms with it. Rodney and his Dad share a hug, and it’s just a very nice moment. It’s also great development for Rodney, showing how he’s grown from a whiny, sexist, birthday obsessed boy into a man who can tackle heavy issues,a nd come out the better for it. At least, that’s what I would be saying IF WE’D GOTTEN ANY SENSE OF RODNEY’S DEVELOPMENT BEFORE NOW! The man has a life-altering epiphany about the death of his sister, and you think showing him whining about his BIRTHDAY is more important, CBS?! I get that there’s limited time in the show, and Rodney’s sister did get a mention early on, but even I, who am OBSESSED with the show, had to think to remember what Rodney was talking about. That’s not a good sign. On top of that, like I said before, it kind of comes out of the blue, and doesn’t feel earned. Rather, it feels like a lame, last-minute attempt by the show to get us to sympathize with a guy we all got tired of 10 episodes ago. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to belittle Rodney’s epiphany at all. Rather, I’m berating CBS for not letting us see this great character moment, that would have been much more pleasant to watch earlier in the season. Had we seen this develop for Rodney over the season, it would have been a landmark moment, that could really have gotten us to like the character. As it stands, Rodney is past redeeming. The moment is still nice, though.

Will’s is also notable, not so much for his wife, but for himself. Will, who has been apathetic, dragged along, and as Shirin so eloquently put it, a “dead fish” in this game, suddenly gets a lot of his energy from the early days back. He’s incredibly positive, slapping everybody on the hands, and actually looks EXCITED about something. Where has this Will been? Like Rodney, he’s WELL past redeeming, but it’s a nice moment, giving us the Will we THOUGH we were getting at the beginning. Had we had this Will all the way through, it might have been one of the greats. As it stands, it’s once again not enough, but it’s a good change to see.

As if family wasn’t enough of a reward, Probst adds a challenge advantage to the pot, meaning Mike will fight all out to win. You’re probably expecting my usual rant about “No challenge advantages!” at this point, but to tell you the truth, I don’t mind. It DOES raise the stakes, and since it’s not an advantage for the FINAL immunity challenge (which is what I really hate, as it’s the one challenge I feel needs to be an even competition), I’m fine with it. If anything, it makes this challenge more exciting.

And they’re off! And believe it or not, WILL of all people takes an early lead! Will! Where has the good-in-challenges Will been hiding? I guess you could say that now he had something to really play for, but I reply, “Immunity isn’t enough?” To each their own, I guess, but now I feel like Will has been holding out on us. Despite Will’s improved efforts (oddly it’s Carolyn who struggles), Will loses it on the balance beam, leading to another Mike victory, with Sierra right behind. Good for him. If anyone needs the advantage, it’s Mike, as his winning immunity will make for the only exciting Tribal Council. We know who goes home if he loses. Plus, this means Rodney STILL hasn’t gotten any rewards, and despite his epiphany making me like him a little more, it’s still fun to watch him suffer.

Surprisingly, this group ISN’T a bunch of rude jerks to Mike’s mom at camp, but treat her really well. Mike eventually steals her away for what should be a touching moment, but instead ends up being another whining session for Mike about how unfair it is that no one will work with him. Again, I get the frustration, and I’m willing to forgive a bit of whining, but Mike has really gotten excessive with it over the last few episodes, and it doesn’t make me like him this episode in particular. I swear, he really IS the only person this episode (not counting the reunion) who comes off badly. Mike also claims that this is a season “full of gamers”. Um, since when? Don’t get me wrong, it’s got more than most, but compared to say “Survivor Cagayan”, or even “Survivor Micronesia”, you’ve got nothing. Not saying this season was a cakewalk, but it’s not as tough as you make it sound, dude.

Wow, challenge time already? Guess nothing happened at camp. No, this is actually Mike’s advantage. Similar to what Keith got at the same challenge on “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, Mike is given a half-hour to practice the challenge, thus giving him an advantage. The twist this time around, though is that his mom gets to help him out. I actually really like this. It’s always better when the loved ones get more involved with the show, and this was a clever way to work it in, as well as to connect the two rewards together. And given what the challenge is, Mike will need his mom’s help. First debuting on “Survivor The Amazon”, this is the blindfolded maze challenge, wherein contestants must make their way blindfolded through a maze to a series of stations to pick up a medallion, and then get back to the center to win immunity. Always a good challenge to watch, but it’s so overused at this point that I’m sick of it. Lucky for Mike, his mom isn’t blindfolded, and so should be able to lead him through the maze no problem, helping him memorize the routes he needs. I also like that this advantage isn’t too overpowered. True, Mike has knowledge that the others do not, but it also relies on his memory, which could be faulty. Therefore, and advantage that still works but has room for error, and doesn’t just GIVE the challenge to one person, as so many of them do. Sadly for Mike, his mom isn’t that good at mazes, and she only manages to get him the four medallions before the time is up. No working towards the center, which puts Mike’s chances at winning in jeopardy. His mom clearly knows this, and breaks down about how she failed her son. Even Mike’s MOTHER comes off better than he does this episode. I really sympathize with her. I want to go through the tv screen, and tell her it’s alright. Mike’s experience in the maze will still be a big help. You did all you could. This poor woman is beating herself up over very little, I feel like. Hopefully, the outcome of the challenge will make her feel better.

If there’s one good point to make about this challenge, it does look awesome. Those aerial shots of the compass rose shape of the maze look quite epic. Shame the rest of the challenge is so lame. Rodney and co. put up a token effort at winning, even using the tried-and-true strategy of helping each other out in the maze. Still, it quickly becomes clear that Mike’s advantage has done its job. Even though Mike may not know the specific path he needs through the maze, he knows the general orientation he needs to start at, so while everyone else makes their way around gingerly, Mike orients himself and charges forward. He’s never in last place, and even though the path to the idol is not a straight shot like it usually is in this challenge (another positive aspect! I’m on a roll!), Mike still makes his way through very quickly, and wins. The most exciting outcome, but the most obvious one as well.

It doesn’t take long for the strategizing to start at camp. One little detail that I haven’t been commenting on, but I think shows that Sierra may be a bit smarter than we gave her credit for. If you look throughout the episode, she’s hanging off of Mike’s arm in many shots, usually a sign of closeness and affection. She’s allied with Rodney, but is ingratiating herself with Mike. Could it be that Sierra is stealthily playing both sides of the fence? It seems so, as Carolyn and Sierra waste no time in joining Mike’s “firewood collecting”, and they all agree to vote out Rodney, because the only other option is Will, and everyone with a working brain will take Will to the end for an easy win. The three agree to go to the finals together, but Mike wisely knows not to trust them. Accordingly, he goes to Rodney, and plays both sides of the fence. Good for Mike, that’s decent strategy. Now, you’d expect Mike to target Carolyn as an alternative, as up until recently she’s been good in challenges, and is the best bet to beat him at the Final Tribal Council. In an odd move, however, Mike targets SIERRA as a challenge threat. True, she’s been close the last couple of times, but Carolyn has the better track record overall, and is a much bigger threat. Had it been a debate of Rodney vs. Carolyn, it could have been interesting. Instead, Mike’s move is clearly to stick with the ladies and vote off Rodney. As Rodney says, Sierra is a sweetheart, and could potentially win over the jury that way, but Sierra has no real argument. She did nothing in the game, whereas Rodney actually has some strategy he can fall back on. I can’t believe I just typed that sentence.

As if to emphasize how good it would be to have Sierra in the finals, come this Tribal Council, she gives possibly one of the WORST “Why I should stay.” answers ever, citing her love of the game. Weak and generic. Yeah, you totally don’t want someone who gives answers that LAME in the finals. Any pretense of subtlety is thrown out the window, as Mike admits that he still trusts no one, and the two targets are made clear. We go to vote, and the season gets me once again. Mike makes a stupid decision, and sends Sierra packing. Not that I’m sorry to see her go or anything, she didn’t bring much to the table, but when you could have gotten rid of RODNEY? Bad move, bro, bad move.

FINALLY the show realizes that we don’t need to see a scene of “If Mike doesn’t win immunity, he’s gone!” for the umpteenth time, and cuts straight to our final immunity challenge. Upon SEEING the challenge, I kind of wish we had another scene of “If Mike doesn’t win immunity, he’s gone.” It’s a generic obstacle course with very few stages. Basically, everyone unties a simple rope gate (that doesn’t look at all imposing or epic), runs up steps, and retrieves a key. Once the key is found, they slide down a water slide, and make their way through what looks like a series of monkey bars to retrieve one of three bags. Once all the bags are retrieved, they must solve a lighthouse puzzle to win immunity. I suppose the running up the stairs provides a good challenge, but everything else is underwhelming. Neither the puzzle nor the monkey bars seem that tough (fun, but not tough), and the water slide is just lame. Again, in real life, water slides are tons of fun, but they just feel un-“Survivor”, and really don’t make for an exciting challenge. So, and this is just a suggestion, STOP MAKING USE OF THEM IN CHALLENGES! Plus, there’s my usual complaint about it not being an endurance challenge. There’s just some sort of poetic justice about it all coming down to “How badly do you want it?”, that you lose with this sort of challenge.

We see the return of snarky Will to the game, as he sarcastically asks Probst not to “Rub it in.”, with regards to Mike’s winning streak. Then, Will actually starts out well in the challenge! Not fantastic, but pretty good. I ask again, WHERE WAS THIS WILL THE ENTIRE SEASON! I LIKE this Will! True, as I said with Rodney, it does not make up for Will’s past actions. I also cut the show a bit more slack, as it’s hard to show a profession of getting better at challenges that isn’t there, but nevertheless, I like this Will. If we’d had HIM all season, it wouldn’t have been as bad.

Sure enough, Mike pretty easily wins his fifth immunity, a feat matched by few. I’m not one to give a whole lot of credit to people who only win lots of challenges, but even I concede that this is an impressive feat, worthy of the praise Mike gets. I also find it touching how everyone takes the moment of giving immunity away from Probst, to put it over Mike’s head themselves. Aww, what a sweet show of unity. Maybe if the rest of the season had had heartwarming moments like this one, it would have lived up to Probst’s preseason boasts.

You’d expect Carolyn to be gone next, with the way Mike allied himself, but this is not the case. It turns out Mike still holds an (understandable) vendetta against the other former Escameca for betraying him, and so wants Rodney gone. Naturally, he’s going to ask Will to vote with them, threatening to get Will out if he doesn’t comply… oh, no, wait, he’s just encouraging Carolyn to work on making fire. Ok, Mike, you’ve had a lot of good strategic moments, but you’ve had a lot of really dumb ones as well. And this one’s right up there on the dumbness scale! Even your stupid move has a stupid move within it! It’s like the Russian Nesting Dolls of stupid! Not ONLY is it in your best interest to get Carolyn out at this phase, but you also half-ass your attempts to keep her? That’s just lazy. Will can be swayed, and if you really want Carolyn in, why leave it up to chance? It just makes no sense to me, particularly when it becomes clear that Carolyn cannot make fire well.

Once again, Tribal is a mystery, though this time in regards to “Who will win the challenge?” and not “Which side will win out?” After a bland bit of banter, we get to the tiebreaker between Carolyn and Rodney (no revote, oddly), which is the usual fire-making challenge. I’ve got to admit, it’s refreshing to see it again. The last time we saw it was on “Survivor Gabon”, almost seven years ago, so it’s well overdue for a resurgence. While I still say a tie is not the smartest move for anyone at this point (save maybe Carolyn), it’s fun to watch.

Just when you thought that Becky and Sundra’s abysmal performance at the final four fire-making challenge on “Survivor Cook Islands” was the most pathetic display of outdoorsmanship you’ve ever seen… you’d be right. But this one gives it a run for it’s money. The pair take almost an hour to get a fire going, breaking several pieces of flint apiece in the process. I also must take issue with Probst just handing out new flint willy-nilly. They broke their flint! Let them suffer! Still, it does not progress to matches, and the two finally manage to start something at about the same time. In terms of building a fire, both have different strategies. Carolyn makes her fire the way you should do it for an honest-to-goodness campfire. Rodney takes the Stephenie LaGrossa (“Survivor Palau”) strategy of just burning everything and hoping for the best. That strategy worked for Stephenie, it’s true, but that’s because the goal was different. That fire-making challenge just required that the fire reach a certain height. Nowadays, you need to have a sustained flame. As a result, Carolyn wins, and Rodney gets sent home. I am THRILLED! While it’s not the best outcome for Mike’s game, I’ve come to like Carolyn a lot more, particularly over the past few episodes, and while I’m happy for Rodney’s epiphany, I still don’t like him, and am glad he has no shot at winning his game. He throws a little hissy fit and leaves, thank God! Even his hissy fit, though it does go in for a lot of redneck bashing, seems weak. Nowhere near the standard set by Judd Sergeant’s “Scumbags” speech on “Survivor Guatemala”.

So we have our final 3, and it’s a pretty good twosome (Will is a non-entity at this point). It’s really up in the air as to whether Mike or Carolyn will win, and like most of this season, it makes the Tribal Councils fun to watch. However, it does not make the last day fun to watch, so I’m going to skip over it. It’s worth pointing out, though, that with Mike, Carolyn, and Will left, we have one person from each of the three original tribes left at the end, a first for a three-tribe season. I would go on about the collars thing, but as I say, it’s a failed twist, so I don’t want to acknowledge it if I don’t have to. Besides, Mike and Probst do that for me enough.

Unlike the past few Final Tribal Councils we’ve had, we actually get a few good moments/questions/speeches from the cast. Therefore, I’ll actually be discussing individual questions this time. I won’t be talking about the opening and closing speeches, mainly because THERE AREN’T ANY! I assume they were done, and were just cut for time reasons, due to the fact that oversized finals and juries mean you have less time to hear from everyone. Yet ANOTHER thing to hate about the final three format.

We start off with Joe, who gives a generic speech about wanting these people to take their gloves off, and show how good of a game they played. Ever the diplomat, Joe finds it in himself to compliment everyone on some aspect of their game. How he was able to do this for Will, I’ll never know. His blandness is shortly followed by Hali’s blandness, and her question is the one I can’t remember out of the bunch, so I’ll just let it pass, especially since it has no bearing on the outcome. Sierra gets up next, noting as everyone else has, that one person from each tribe is left. She asks Will what he’s learned from each person. Will compliments Mike’s work ethic and Carolyn’s focus, though he takes the time to also backhand Mike, pointing out how Mike’s work ethic led to his social downfall, in part. Then we get Tyler, another speech, where he makes the fair point that Mike should not deserve a vote just because he won a bunch of immunities, citing the Colby Donaldson (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) precedent. Mike tries to explain what he did strategically, but has a hard time articulating it. While I admire Mike for working himself into a swing vote position, al lot of that was due to immunity wins on his part. The fact is that post-merge, when one’s game is most obvious, Mike doesn’t have much to go on. He alienated a lot of his alliance (though part of that was due to their targeting him), and couldn’t find a strategic leg to stand on most of the time. He has great accomplishments of strategy, but they’re all pre-merge. And in any case, Mike’s real strength is the ability to dig himself out of holes, which is fine, but compared to someone like Carolyn, who always stayed on top, it looks pretty bad. Mike answers Tyler’s question ok, but looks kind of sheepish. He’s “helped” by Jenn, who’s giving the “This is who the jury should vote for!” speech of the season. She berates most of the jury for taking Mike to task over being ostracized, when it wasn’t really his fault, which is fair. She also talks up Mike’s post-merge strategic game, which I’m not as inclined to agree with. Sound-Byte Dan has to follow up this speech, and even he admits that it’s a tall order. Still, he does his best impression of Big Tom’s speech from “Survivor All-Stars”, and reads Mike the riot act for supposedly “breaking their friendship.” He leaves Mike no room to respond, but Mike does anyway. Whether he’s sincere, or just has finally learned how to fake it, Mike gives a really good apology. It even gets Sound-Byte Dan up to make a second speech, where he finally starts to forgive Mike. Following this, we have Rodney. Ever the bro, Rodney asks each in turn how they “kept it real” out there, an ill-defined concept that is just an excuse to try and make Will look good. Still, we can laugh at Rodney, and that’s fun. Then we get Shirin. Ooh, boy, Shirin. Now, I’ve gone back and forth on Shirin all season. She was a bit too over the top int he beginning, and seemed to have no idea what she was doing. However, she learned as she went along, and her backstory made me like her a lot. So, which Shirin was at Tribal tonight? Sad to say, it’s the one that tries to hard. You could just TELL that she wanted to promote every classic “Survivor” speech that’s happened at Final Tribal Council. Normally I’m all for that, but it felt so forced. The best bits were her promoting Mike, which felt genuine, and also her saying that she would vote based on gameplay, which brought out the “learning the game” side of her character. Then, sadly, she tries to join the Order of Sue-Hawkabees, with massive failure. She’s just too upbeat to be a true Sue-Hawkabee, even if she does go the extra mile of quoting Sue directly. The animal metaphor feels forced, (particularly as, unlike Sue’s animal comparison, there’s no natural predator/prey relationship between howler monkeys, stingrays, and dead fish), and mostly seems like an excuse to talk about money sex again. Still, I do like the dead fish comparison for Will. How very apt.

The questioning done, Probst leads us into the voting by saying that what makes this season good is that the question now is “Who will win?” Forgive me, but isn’t that the question EVERY season at this time? Stop trying to make this season seem special, Probst!

I expect it to be a close call, but in the end, Carolyn and Will only get one vote apiece (from Sierra and Rodney, respectively), and Mike ends up winning. Have to say, I’m somewhat disappointed. Not that Mike won, mind you, but that Carolyn didn’t get more votes. Apart from the fact that I feel like her game needs more respect, the fact that she TIED with WILL for second place just makes me sick. Still, well done to Mike. Even though we saw it coming, it’s still a good victory. Not sure Mike will go down as one of the best or most entertaining winners, but he’s not a bad one by any stretch. One thing Mike’s win does help explain, though, is Probst’s love of the season. Personally, Probst really loves the sort of “real man!” contestants, and Mike fits this to a t. Probst’s love of the season may be nothing more than a love of Mike as a winner.

Sadly, we must now discuss the reunion show, because it highlights the problem had by this season in far too much detail. After a generic first segment where we talk about Mike, the rest of the show is dominated by talk about all the sexist comments made on the show. On the one hand, I admire the show for being willing to confront these issues up front. On the other hand, it took up way too much time, particularly with all the re-showing of the awfulness of the case, and served mainly to highlight the unpleasant aspects of this cast, which are unfortunately what dominate the season as a whole. It doesn’t help that both Sound-Byte Dan and Will are fairly unapologetic, and that Shirin does not readily accept Will’s apology. True, I don’t see why she should, but the fact remains that it’s just awful. On top of that, like with the “Survivor Caramoan” reunion, only the favorites of the cast are called up. While this one does not commit the cardinal sin of only having those who made the merge up on stage, thereby automatically making it better, it does a damn good job of matching the awfulness by ignoring the upper levels entirely, and talking to a grand total of, I believe, FIVE people from the season. When you can only find five people from a season you want to talk to at a reunion show, you’ve got problems. I think the finishing blow, though, is how much the “Second Chances” vote is hyped up throughout the night. True, it’s a twist that deserves to be hyped up, and it’s given as much time as it’s due, but the hype only serves to highlight just how bad this season is in comparison, and makes us hate the cast we have. Still, it wasn’t a total loss. Sound-Byte Dan got outed as a hypocrite, and the snarky “Rodney’s Birthday” segment was hilarious!

But now onto what we all want to hear about, the reveal of the “Second Chances” contestants. I won’t talk about the contestants themselves (yet), but I will talk about how the reveal was done. I loved it. Loved. It. Best thing of the reunion. Every potential contestant got some screen time, as well as a description from Probst. No one felt left out. Plus, Probst was really polite about letting the rejects down, and to their credit, almost all of them took it well. Jim Rice (“Survivor South Pacific”) was visibly crushed, and even I felt a little sorry for him. On the other hand, his comments to Cochran are still fresh in my mind, so I mainly just bask in schadenfreude. The delight we got to see in people slowly going up was a joy, and I hope to relive the vote reveal as soon as it comes out online. However, Probst mentioned that Mike was one of the Top 10, but became ineligible due to his winning. Since the contestants were revealed in no particular order, we have no idea who took up Mike’s spot. I’d be curious to find out who made it, and hopefully Probst will reveal that some time in the future.

Sadly, even the upcoming season is not enough to save what was an awful season. Well, perhaps that’s hyperbole, as I wouldn’t call this season “bad” per se. It is, however, at the VERY low end of “good”, even getting below “Survivor South Pacific” in that category. While it had a good start, a few memorable moments, and an excellent finish. The trouble is that the excitement petered out a LOT after the merge, and was replaced with unpleasant sexism, which I could do without. I think Probst’s hype also hurt this season, as the cast overall isn’t HORRIBLE. It’s just that those who stand out are mainly the unpleasant people, and to call THIS one of the best casts ever is, I feel, a gross overstatement.

Speaking of the cast, let’s see how my pre-season predictions matched up to the actual game:

So: Should have stuck with my first impression of her. While she could hack it in the wild better than I thought, she wanted to take charge too much, and was out earlier than I predicted.

Vince: He was out earlier than I predicted, but I nailed his personality. I was wrong a LOT this season, so I think I’ll give myself this one.

Nina: Pretty much right. Enough said.

Lindsey: Out slightly earlier than I predicted, but she left for the reasons I thought, so again, right.

Max: Dead wrong. I was blinded by fan loyalty. While I still feel he got a bad rap, there’s no denying he didn’t play the game I expected, and was out much earlier as a result.

Joaquin: If it hadn’t been for his initial tribe wanting to keep strength, I would have been right.

Kelly: While I’d like to think there was more to her than we saw on the show, she didn’t win, and she was arguably the most forgettable person this season. Have to say I was wrong.

Hali: Pretty much right. Lasted longer than I thought, but still a party girl with no personality.

Joe: Wow. I actually nailed him exactly. Personality, time and reason for leaving, it’s all there. Go me!

Jenn: Right about time in the game, wrong about personality and winning ability. She had no drive, as it turned out, and I never pegged her a quitter.

Shirin: Wrong. better at the game than I thought, but also with the capacity to be much more annoying than I thought.

Tyler: Wrong. A lot smarter, stronger, and long-lived than I thought.

Dan: Right about personality, wrong about time in the game. And MAN, did I ever undersell his awfulness!

Sierra: Another one where the personality is spot-on, but time in the game is underestimated. She was much more adaptable than I expected.

Rodney: Just as annoying as I thought, if not more, but I underestimated his smarts, and how long he would last.

Will: Wrong. I simply could not account for his awfulness, and the depths of his scumbaggery.

Carolyn: Dead wrong. She lasted longer than I thought, and was much more take charge. I am sorry.

Mike: Well, I did say he could be a victor. he was maybe not as smart as I credited him, but I still TECHNICALLY called the winner.

Well, this season is over, and it was pretty bad. Let us never speak of it again. I WILL, however, speak about the cast of next season. Have to say, I am LOVING this cast. Only four people (two men, two women) in the mix whom I’d rather not see again, and even then, there’s only two of them that I find TRULY objectionable. Plus, they’re going to Cambodia, a NEW LOCATION! Bear in mind, we haven’t gotten a new location since “Survivor Philippines”. True, it should be geographically similar to “Survivor Thailand”, but yeah, it’s going to be awesome! Still, this liking is not enough, meaning it’s time for another…

TOP 5 AND BOTTOM 5!

As you might expect, since we want to get this season over with really quickly, we’ll be talking about the cast of the upcoming “Survivor Cambodia”, as we can now call it (why not just call it “Survivor Second Chances”, and then call NEXT season “Survivor Cambodia”, and not have to worry about some big game-naming twist?). Specifically, the top 5 people I’m super excited are coming back, and the top 5 people I’m not too happy about coming back. Now, bear in mind that these are relative terms, since, as I say, I actually REALLY like this cast overall. Also, since there are only four people I object to on some level, some of the ones on the “Bottom 5” list I won’t actually dislike, but just don;t like as much as everybody else. So, who’s the best of the best and the worst of the best? Read on and find out!

TOP 5

5. Peih-Gee Law (“Survivor China”): A bit of an odd choice to start off with, since Peih-Gee is never one of the former contestants whose praises I’ve sung. However, thinking back, Peih-Gee had a lot of potential in the game. True, she was unlikely to win, and had a bit of an argumentative side, but she was smart, hung on to the final five despite being an underdog, and had a snappy retort every now and again. Like with a lot of the players from the single-digit seasons, I’ll be interested to see if she can learn from her mistakes. She’ll be fun to watch, if nothing else.

4. Jeremy Collins (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”): Those of you who read last season’s blog know the praises I sung of Jeremy, so it should be no surprise that I’m happy to see him back. While maybe not the greatest to strategic minds, Jeremy had a lot going for him that was tragically cut short. This time, I look forward to seeing what he can do without the bland Jon Misch conspiring against him. This season has a LOT of my old favorites on the list, and Jeremy just isn’t as exciting as them, so he’s lower on the list. Even so, I greatly look forward to seeing him again, and hope that this time, his strategic game goes better.

3. Jeff Varner (“Survivor The Australian Outback”): While I don’t view the older season through QUITE the nostalgia goggles that a lot of people do, I still like seeing their players come back, if only to contrast them to how the game is played now, and see if they sink or swim. Of the classic players coming back, Jeff is by far my favorite. He’s incredibly funny, he’s a older guy (which you don’t see a lot of), and his strategic game on his first season actually went more with the model of current seasons. As a result, I’ll be interested to see how he fares.

2. Stephen Fishbach (“Survivor Tocantins”): One of my old favorites, and I’m glad to have him back! Stephen was screwed over by going up against a god in the finals, even though he himself played a good game. Always a smart strategist, and willing to go along with a good Coach metaphor, Stephen brings strategy, entertainment, and a quirky charm that will be most welcome on this season.

Kass McQuillen (“Survivor Cagayan”): Possibly my favorite contestant from recent seasons. Apart fromt he inevitable drama she brings, I admire Kass’ unwillingness to take a backseat, her up-front game, and her strategic thinking. Yes, you heard me. While a few of her moves were objectively bad during her first outing, you can see from her perspective how they were strategic. And many people forget, Kass was amazing at reading people, guessing where idols were, and solving puzzles. She got what I feel was an unfair, overly-bad reputation last time around, and I hope she gets the chance to correct it with this new season.

Honorable Mention: Terry Deitz (“Survivor Exile Island”): Ah, one of my favorites from back in the day. Terry played a great game, and really should have been back for “Survivor Micronesia”. He was overshadowed by Ozzy (“Survivor Cook Islands”), and was thereby denied a spot, so I’m glad he’s getting his due now. I make him an honorable mention due to the fact that my tastes in players have evolved since then, and I’m not sure how much I’ll like his jock archetype now. Still, as I say, unfairly neglected, and I’m glad he’s back.

BOTTOM 5

5. Spencer Bledsoe (“Survivor Cagayan”): This choice might seem odd, as I’ve time and again professed my love for “Survivor Cagayan” and all within it. And if you tie me down, I’ll admit I voted for Spencer. Still, of this who made it who I DID vote for, I’m not as big a fan of his. True, he played a decent strategic game that didn’t really get a chance to shine, due to his perpetual state of being on the bottom. However, I’m not a big fan of Spencer’s attitude. He’s a little too full of himself, and a few of his comments were just unnecessarily mean and hurtful. Calling orphaned children “Little monsters”, and referring to Kass as a “Brain-Dead Weasel” does not win you points in my book. As I said, I voted for him to get on, so I can’t complain too much. Even so, I hope he ate some humble pie before this season.

4. Joe Anglim (“Survivor Worlds Apart”): Now we get to the people I didn’t vote for. I really don’t have any objection to Joe in and of himself. He seems like a nice guy, decent strategic game, but just nothing to write home about. Nothing against him, I just think there were more exciting choices we could have had this season.

3. Keith Nale (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”): Hello, objection! Again, Keith is not the worst choice to come back. He had one or two funny moments, and as an older guy who can kick some butt in challenges, I think he’s not a HORRIBLE choice. However, much like this past season, so much about his is unpleasant. Instead of strategy, we get spitting, stupid gameplay, and redneck humor. No thank you!

2. Abi-Maria Gomes (“Survivor Philippines”): Uugh, her again? I didn’t enjoy Abi-Maria’s naive, mean-spirited gameplay last time, and I don’t expect I will this time. I guess people want her to cause drama, and she will bring that. From what I hear, she’s actually nicer than portrayed on the show, which is why I don’t give her the top spot, but, like with Keith, I just feel like there were better options we could have had on.

Monica Padilla (“Survivor Samoa”): Ok, now I’m angry. THIS is the best we can come up with? A person who played on the first season with Russell “Screen-Hog” Hantz, thereby ensuring we don’t remember her! Look, this is going to sound harsh, but other than looking pretty, Monica really has no reason to be out there, and fills a space that could have been filled by a more worthy contestant. I know there’s the “She pulled one over on Russell. She must be good!” argument, but here’s the thing. For all that Russell does some aspects of the game very well, one of his faults is that he is overly paranoid. Playing off that paranoia is incredibly simple. Rupert (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) managed to make Russell paranoid on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, and even did it with more success, yet no once calls HIM a strategic genius! So, why call Monica one? Sorry, she may be lovely in real life, but I cannot, in good faith, support Monica.

Honorable Mention: Andrew Savage (“Survivor Pearl Islands”): Like Spencer, I voted for Savage, but under duress. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t dislike Savage, but like with Spencer, he really thinks he was a lot better at the game than he actually was (and has even less evidence than Spencer to back it up),and just can’t let the fact that a twist got him go. Plus, Probst’s fanboy love of Savage seems a bit disgusting to me. Savage gets the Honorable Mention, though, because unlike someone by Spencer, who just didn’t play the game well enough, Savage actually has a legitimate argument to his game being screwed over due to factors beyond his control. I don’t think he would have WON the season, as he claimed, but he might have done better. Plus, “Survivor Pearl Islands” is my second-favorite season, so I need to throw it’s one representative a bone.

And there you have it. Now, I know what you’re thinking. If I love this cast so much, why don’t I talk about all of them? Also, why don’t I say who I voted for. The answer is simple. I do my “Cast Assessment blog” as soon as the identities of the contestants are revealed. They have been revealed. Come back tomorrow, when I talk about the cast as a whole, discuss their chances in the game, go into more detail about who I like and dislike and why, and learn who I personally would have put in some of their places.

-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.