Idol Speculation: “Survivor 42” Episode 4: As the Dime Turns

Look, I know I usually try to make some joke regarding the title in the opening paragraph, so that those who see the first few lines won’t be spoiled about the episode, but I’ve got nothing here.  I know “As the World Turns” was a show, but I know nothing about.  I just knew enough to know I could turn Daniel’s line into a nice reference, but the exact reference eludes me.  Hope I’m not shooting myself in the foot here…

We break patterns tonight, both by me not needing to do another edition of “Matt’s Mess-Up” at the start of this blog, and by there being actual tribe drama after the Tribal Council last episode!  Frankly, of the two, the former is more surprising.  Daniel opens his mouth to begin the discussion, and I’m just going to stop you right there, Daniel.  You are NOT the person who should be opening this conversation.  Participating, sure.  You were the center of drama tonight, and so need to be in the discussion.  But, to be blunt, it’s your discussion of tribe dynamics that got you here in the first place.  

Oh, but we also see that Daniel has been drinking his own Kool-Aid.  Even in confessional, he’s still insisting on the “Chanelle Betrayed Me” narrative.  Yeah, keep saying that, Daniel.  She’s not the one who threw her own ally under the bus the minute the going got tough.  Again, not saying Daniel should have gone to rocks, but by trying to deflect the blame from himself in avoiding said rocks, he just alienated every potential ally he has.  

To be fair, Chanelle does admit, after insisting on public tribe discussion (the right move, good for her), that she did spearhead the Lydia vote.  A decent point.  Perhaps Daniel was not making up the narrative out of whole cloth.  The fact is Daniel still seems untrustworthy at this point.  After al, if he’s willing to be that callous in regards to his “number one”, how can he be counted on as an ally at all.  Mike, of course, is devastated about the outcome, and Hai and Lydia are of course upset that people they thought were with them (Chanelle and Daniel) were not, thus making Hai’s statement of “Everyone was blindsided” only slightly hyperbolic, and within the acceptable realms of drama.  

Still, Hai and Lydia have the least reason to worry.  Unsurprisingly, now that Mike is ally-less, and shown to be generally loyal, he becomes the main ally for power-brokers Hai and Lydia at this point.  Unsurprising, and the only wrinkle is if Mike doesn’t get his vote back prior to the next Tribal Council.  That said, the Chanelle/Daniel division is exploitable, so I would say Hai and Lydia have little worry about.  Daniel, however, does, and he hopes for “A turn of the dime” to save his game.  

Contrary to how past seasons go, this is NOT a setup for a swap, but just a reward challenge.  Three tribe members untangle a series of ropes they’re attached to, thus undoing a ring on a string to pull a sled containing balls toward them.  Once they have the balls, they run to the fourth tribe member, and each must put one ball down the tube, first to four balls wins 10 fish.  Decent-enough challenge, but nothing special.  

As this challenge does not involve a puzzle, Taku is favored to win this challenge, and it’s not even close.  The show doesn’t even pretend.  Ika and Vati barely make it to the ring-toss portion by the time Taku wins the whole shebang.  This is, as per usual, largely due to Jonathan, but the rest of the tribe are no slouches either.  After all, they had to toss balls in as well, and apart from Omar, they all drill it on the first attempt we saw, and even he only missed once.  Hardly a stumbling performance.  

Probst, however, knows that a good chunk of the audience loves a challenge beast, and so takes the opportunity to hype of Jonathan in particular.  Jonathan, not content with only Probst burying his chances, says “Watch, I can bury myself just as well!” and talks about how Taku is a tight foursome.  This is right up there with Tony’s “Top 5 Baby” from “Survivor Cagayan”, and arguably more devastating.  Tony only survived that gaffe due to a major fracture in the other alliance, though given what we see of the other tribes, perhaps that can happen here as well.  

Jonathan’s gaffe does not go unnoticed by his tribe.  After the suitable squealing over receiving 10 large fish (evidently the show learned from the too-small rewards of last season), they note that Jonathan is a bit of a blabbermouth.  And it’s impressive, when on a tribe with Maryanne, if ANYONE ELSE gets labeled a blabbermouth.  Jonathan, for his part, does recognize his mistake, and takes it in stride.  He then takes the time to give us his flashback, talking about being pushed as a kid, and his strive through tough situations, tying it back into his fandom.  Fair enough, it’s a decent confessional, but I must ask: Why not bring up his tenure on “Endurance” here?  Seems like a perfect lead-in.  Perhaps it’s a rights thing, and if so that sucks, but I’m just saying, if it’s not, missed opportunity.  

One thing I didn’t mention happening at the challenge was the commentary from the sit-outs.  This is usually limited to general cheerleading, which is fine, but Rocksroy, who sat out for Ika, takes it a step further.  He tries to offer advice on how to complete the challenge, which just… No, Rocksroy.  Cheering, fine.  But you are not playing in the challenge.  Do not tell the people who are participating in the challenge how to play the challenge.  If you think you know better, THEN YOU SHOULD DO THE CHALLENGE YOURSELF!

I bring this up, not because people will complain about this specifically on his tribe, but because it gives an idea of Rocksroy’s personality, and where the problems for this tribe will shortly come in.  You see, Swati, realizing she would be fourth in the group with Rocksroy, Drea, and Romeo, talks to Tori about getting out Drea over her extra vote.  The problem is that Romeo is too tight with Drea, so that, by process of elimination, leaves Rocksroy.  For some incomprehensible reason, TORI, rather than Swati, is sent to try and sell Rocksroy on the idea.  And after the requisite “Rocksroy talks about how things should be done.” speech that I assume precedes ALL conversations with Rocksroy, he actually does give her an opening.  Rocksroy, not being an idiot, notes that there might have been an advantage on the “journey” Drea took a few episodes about it, and wonders aloud to Tori whether this might be the case.  Tori seizes her chance, and spills the beans about Drea’s advantage, creating an opening for her and Swati.  

And now, of course, we see the PROBLEM with sending Tori to talk to Rocksroy: HE DOESN’T TRUST HER!  Like, I would get it if Swati and Rocksroy weren’t close either, but he LITERALLY is the one who brought her into the fold in the first episode.  In what world is Swati the worse person of these two to talk to Rocksroy?  As a result, Rocksroy spills the information to Drea, who now KNOWS that Tori is not loyal, and thus the target is now back on Tori.  Congratulations!  You squandered a salvageable situation.  Nice work!

We’re off to our challenge, and despite really only hearing from one tribe, I’m not mad about our misdirection as to the winner.  Yes, Ika only got the real meaty strategy talk, but Taku at least had the Jonathan debacle that could cause some drama, and Vati is just a hot mess at this point.  The challenge itself may be familiar to recent fans, as it’s the one that Sele came back to win that involved Adam jumping to grab keys on “Winners at War”.  The only difference is the puzzle at the end, a hanging fish.  Decent challenge, but again, nothing to write home about.  More notable is Maryanne copying nearly word for word Xander’s complaint about no one else finding idols from “Survivor 41”. Maryanne’s message is still forced, but coming from her, much less bad.

Despite this challenge having a puzzle, Taku is still favored to win, mostly because, unlike the other tribes, they get a motorboat.  And by that, I of course mean Jonathan is pulling the boat via swimming, such that even Omar losing a key in the water can’t slow them down.  Since they keep Jonathan literally as far away from the puzzle as the platform will allow, they win easily, though it’s a VERY close race between Ika and Vati.  Vati ekes out a narrow victory, however, and obvious outcome is obvious.  Rocksroy again tries to tell people how to do the challenge, though this time it could at least be construed as him trying to help on the puzzle, rather than being annoying.  

With Tori and Rocksroy already established as plausible targets in this and previous episodes, we instead devote all our time to the third target: Swati.  Yes, despite not hearing from her that much, it seems she’s been caught double-dealing.  A montage of Swati telling everyone “You’re my number one.” ensues, and while funny, it also gave me “Edge of Extinction” PTSD, reminding me of the Aubry montage.  Dark times, dark times.  

Point being, Swati is considered a double-dealer by Romeo and Drea, who are by default the power-brokers due to being the only two not targeted this episode.  They lean towards Swati for being untrustworthy, but Rocksroy also insists that Tori must go.  This also means that Romeo is the only player left on this tribe whose play cannot be described as “messy” in some way.  Either choice is fine, but I would overall say that Tori is the better vote-out.  Swati at least had the pretense with working with the tribe at one point, whereas Tori has been on the outs (and therefore desperate and untrustworthy) since the beginning.  Swati, despite messy gameplay, keeps the tribe more united, which might save them come the merge, given the disunity of Vati.  

Now, right now, I’m sure some of your are saying “Tori’s not a plausible target!  We know she finds an advantage form the season preview, and we haven’t seen that yet!”  True, very true, but you forget, there is no law saying advantages must be found prior to the immunity challenge.  There is still ample time for Tori to find the advantage, and imagine the drama of losing one’s vote RIGHT BEFORE TRIBAL!  Wouldn’t that be fun to watch, if frustrating as a player?  

Oh look, they’re heading off to Tribal without showing the scene.  Really, show?  Really?  We’re now FOUR episodes deep, and the MOST OBVIOUS advantage fine still hasn’t happened for a main target, thereby sucking the tension out of everything?  Gee, you think maybe that was a bad idea?  And it’s not like this is a hard fix!  Just play the voiceover of the advantage reading over jungle footage, or challenge footage; something that doesn’t 100% show Tori!  True, we can guess from the voice, but that takes actual deduction at least, rather than what a mere CASUAL GLANCE can tell us!  Good thing Rocksroy is at least plausible as an alternative or this Tribal Council would have no tension.  

No, we save the remainder of tension suckage for our ACTUAL Tribal Council, where Swati does NOT do a good job of hiding her fear.  She talks in vague terms about how “someone else” had plans, only for Tori to confidently say the quite part out loud, and dispute Swati’s claims.  Say what you will about Tori, I may not like her as a person, but she IS good at presenting herself at Tribal Council.  She may not be at the level of goddess Natalie Cole (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”), but she’s up there.  She keeps her cool, and in doing so presents herself as the stable and overall better ally than Swati, all but ensuring that Swati goes here.  

But wait!  Swati becomes the third person this season (out of four possible) to use their “Shot in the Dark”, and like all those others, it fails.  I must say, the contrast between this and “Survivor 41” is staggering with their usage of this particular twist.  Is this cast more trigger-happy, or just worse at blindsides?  You make the call!  Also of note is that Swati, like Marya, hands her parchment to Probst rather than opening it herself.  Given that Swati had no way to see Marya do this, I can only assume that production has asked that players do so moving forward.  If so… Well, fine, I guess, you do you.  Don’t see what was wrong with the old way, but whatever, not a big deal.  

All that said, I am sorry to see Swati go.  I probably liked her best out of anyone left on this tribe, and while she was definitely a messy player, she wasn’t the worst.  She takes it in stride, though I must take issue with her saying she went out in fourth “Like Boston Rob”.  Look, Boston Rob has a worse track record than people remember, but even he never did that badly.  His first season he was out 7th, which isn’t great, but better than 4th.  

This episode is fine.  Not the greatest, but does little wrong (apart from the aforementioned preview issue), and is just a good hour of entertainment.  Nothing to write home about, but nothing to sneeze at either.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs. 

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 42” Episode 3: Ghost Island

Yes, it seems “Survivor” has played us once again.  Not only are they copying many of the twists from “Survivor 41”, but they’re going back on old twists and revisiting those again as well!  But those twists are twisted, so we have twists upon twists, my friends!  Tonight, for instance, we revisit the idea of “Ghost Island”.  This time, however, instead of playing for relics, the ghosts of players past will possess the bodies of the current cast, in order to help them avoid mistakes!  Speaking of the past, however, it’s time for another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

In my eagerness to talk about how nice, but forgettable, Marya was, I neglected to mention the one thing she DID do that might impact the rest of the season.  Specifically, she plays her shot in the dark.  Understandable, given that she was otherwise a unanimous boot, and therefore had reason to.  That said, I find it interesting how trigger-happy this season is with using those.  Paranoid players, or just people who are bad at hiding the boot?  You make the call!

Morning after on Taku, and things are actually looking pretty chill.  Everyone is happy about the unanimous boot.  We find out that Maryanne was SO happy, in fact, that she told everyone about her extra vote, framing it as “We have five votes, not four.”  Now, this blabbing about one’s advantage is slightly more justified than Drea’s last episode, in that Maryanne seems tight will all present.  Plus, if you’re going to do so, framing it as “this is for the group” is the way to go.  In a way, Maryanne is trying to prevent Taku going down the same fate as Yase from last season.  After all, it was partly keeping secret about advantages that did them in.  Open communication might have saved them.  If this tribe thinks they’re going in the main targets come the merge, this is good info to have.  

All that said, it’s still too early to do so, in my opinion.  The double-edged sword is that it looks like you can’t keep a secret.  Lindsay says as much in not so many words when she talks about her feelings towards Maryanne.  Plus, while it is good to use your advantage for the group, that assumes your group will be targeted at the merge.  While a good possibility to prepare for, you don’t necessarily want to assume that.  Really, the model to go for here is that of the Davids on “Survivor David vs. Goliath”.  Hoard a bunch of advantages, and if you’re down come the merge, THEN come clean and coordinate.  It’s unlikely people will hold it against you, since you’re ultimately working for the good of the group in the end, and again, look like you can keep a secret.  

More justifiable is Maryanne getting the group to go on an idol hunt.  Hey, if you’re going for the “we’re tight” thing, why not go the whole hog?  Besides, with idol hunting being somewhat more public than Shipwheel Island, it’s harder to hide anyway.  Fortunately for Maryanne, she DOES find the idol, in the form of another “Beware Advantage”.  I don’t even have to tell you whether or not she takes it, don’t I?  This is Maryanne we’re talking about.  What IS worth mentioning is that Maryanne found her advantage in a very different place from Mike, and so clearly THAT particular twist went the way of the dodo.  Sadly, Maryanne also gets probably the most awkward phrase to make sound natural of the season.  To wit, her phrase is “It’s another classic case of the bunny having dinner in the mailbox.”  I mean, just… WHAT?  Still, if anyone can pull off that phrase and make it sound natural, it’s Maryanne.  

Also worth briefly mentioning is the fact that Maryanne claims to have seen every episode of “Survivor”, “Except for six from Tocantins.”  I just have so many questions.  Which six did she miss?  How did she miss that exact number?  Why did she miss those particular episodes?  Why hasn’t she just gone back and watched that season?  Unless you really hate Coach or something, that’s a good season to rewatch every now and again.  Seriously, Maryanne, I will lend you my DVD if need be.

Over at Vati, comedy is the order of the day, and our comedic source is Daniel.  Daniel is running around looking for missing items, which give Hai and Lydia both a laugh.  I do think their “He’s missing his shoulder” comment goes a bit far, especially since the guy is still clearly in pain, but maybe that’s just how they relate.  It would also explain why Daniel and Mike seemed so close: They both lose track of stuff very easily.  

Speaking of Mike and his idol, Daniel wants another look, to “examine the fine print” of the idol rules.  He’s a bit pushy to Mike, but Mike eventually acquiesces at a time when he can make the handoff subtly.  It’s there that Daniel tells us he misread the rules initially, and since the idol would go back in the game if he voted Mike off, it would just potentially deprive his tribe of an idol without major consequence to the other tribes come the merge (i.e. it would be like a merge without idols, rather than his thought of a merge where two members of the other tribes could not vote), and therefore weaken his tribe, planting him firmly on the “Mike” side of the debate.  Why Daniel would think that ANY idol would not be re-hidden at this point in “Survivor” history is beyond me, but whatever.  Mike then reads Daniel the riot act for seemingly losing the idol, when it turns out Daniel dropped it at his reading spot, but it’s found and we move on with little fanfare?

Challenge time already?  And a lackluster challenge at that?  Ok, show, you do you, I guess.  Our challenge today is simple in terms of instructions.  Tribes swim out from a platform and retrieve a ladder, which they use to retrieve a key in the water, and then sandbags on land.  Five of these sandbags must be tossed onto discs in the air to win immunity, along with varying amounts of tools and fruit.  Honestly, the best part is Maryanne working in her idol quote about as naturally as one can, in this case using it as a metaphor for “You can’t understand something without context” when Probst asks for clarification.  Overall, this is about as bog-standard a challenge as you can get in this day and age, at least on paper.  

That said, things on “Survivor” rarely go as “On paper”.  For whatever reason, the normally fairly placid waters of Fiji are particularly rough today, dragging the tribes off-course multiple times.  It’s such that only one tribe, Taku, is able to finish the challenge properly, and that’s mostly because Jonathan does the entire thing himself.  As puzzles, his kryptonite, are not present, Taku naturally comes in first place, trading their fruit for fishing gear, which seems the reasonable option.  

But what of our other two tribes?  Well, the current is so rough that, although they get their ladders fine, they cannot stay positioned under their keys, let alone support a ladder with a person on it.  As such, Probst calls the challenge off, having the two remaining tribes come in, with production retrieving their keys, and the challenge running from there.  

Now, I’m sure some are complaining that they’ve run challenges in worse conditions before.  And yes, they have.  Need I remind you of the challenge where three people got heat stroke on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”?  But to me, that does not make me question their decision here.  The conditions looked rough, and if the challenge needed to be pulled, it needed to be pulled.  I wasn’t there, I can’t question the decision.  And even just watching, there were risks.  Rocksroy had his head between ladder rungs at one point.  One bad wave, that can snap your neck.  But no, my issue is not with them pulling the challenge, or at least that leg of it.  My question is WHY DID YOU NOT DO THIS IN OTHER INSTANCES?  Again, “Survivor Kaoh Rong” is the prime example here.  You KNEW conditions were dangerous.  After all, Debbie Wanner started showing the symptoms after her tribe won, but the challenge was ongoing.  You KNEW this could get bad, yet you let the tribes keep digging anyway.  For that matter, this means you can’t even say that it’s because Taku already had first place, and did the challenge legit, that it was called.  The same applies there, as the Brains won before Brawn and Beauty had even dug up their bags.  Calling the challenge was the right decision.  Consistency is all I ask for.  

As to who wins out, it’s pretty close, both the challenge and the edit.  After all, both tribes have had about the same amount of strategy content this episode, which is to say, none.  True, we at least SAW Vati, but with how early this challenge is, it means very little.  Still, Vati does end up losing, which also, as it turns out, gives Taku the right to send one of them on “a journey”, provided that said person has not been on “a journey” before.  Translation: Back to Shipwheel Island and its Prisoner’s Dilemma, folks.  Chanelle is chosen, which seems reasonable, and then Taku gets to pick one member from the two remaining tribes to go.  Correctly realizing that it’s better to concentrate power and information in your own tribe (and the only real risk being a swap, which seems unlikely), Taku picks from amongst themselves.  As Omar seems trusted by most of the tribe (and Jonathan presumably being physically exhausted from near-single-handedly winning a team challenge), he is selected to go.  Can’t argue with either of these picks.  

Back at Vati, we naturally square up between our duos.  In a bit of predictable strategy, they target the perceived “weak links” in terms of challenges on either side.  As such, Hai and Lydia want Jenny to go, while Jenny and Mike want Lydia to go.  Daniel is stuck in the middle, but tells us on the whole he’s in with Mike.  Really, there’s no BAD decision for Daniel at this time, as no pair is inherently better to make a foursome with.  Granted, we’ll see that Daniel will create his OWN bad situation faster than Dolly on “Survivor Vanuatu”, but for right now, he’s sitting pretty.  Still, without Mike’s vote, he’ll need to make sure Chanelle is on board.  

Speaking of Chanelle, we of course find her over at Shipwheel Island, where she and Omar mutually complain about the hike.  That’s as good a bonding as any, though I’m slightly surprised they didn’t use this time to give us a Chanelle flashback.  She seems nice enough, but I feel like I know her the least out of the cast at this point.  Regardless, both have an idea what’s coming (we can presume that both Maryanne and Jenny blabbed), and both agree to “protect” each other, though Chanelle is the only one who outright says she won’t risk her vote.  Kind of similar, again, to season 41, with Evvie, though this time without the “tell all the secrets to Deshawn” aspect.  For the first time in this show, however, the Prisoner’s Dilemma actually plays out the way it’s modeled.  Both expect the other to protect their vote, and thereby risk their votes for personal gain, leading instead to both of them losing their votes.  Whoopsie!

In all seriousness, while this is undoubtedly bad for them both, this DOES lead to some interesting possibilities down the road.  For instance, both seemed to bond and agree to work together come the merge, but will them mutually (if unintentionally) screwing each other over kill that?  Both are kind of at fault, given the mutual “protection pact”.  I’d say Chanelle told the more outright lie from what we saw, but as we will see in a bit, Omar’s decision may have inadvertently fractured Vati, so Chanelle may have more reason to be mad.  Also worth bearing in mind is how long it may take Omar’s vote loss to come back.  After all, barring that they put Jonathan on a puzzle again, it’s very possible that Taku never goes to Tribal again until the merge.  How does that impact the unified four, particularly as it’s hard for Omar to know for certain if he lost his vote UNTIL Tribal Council?  I feel bad for both of them, but I cannot deny it makes for some fun scenarios down the road.  

While Chanelle also doesn’t know she’s lost her vote, she prepares for the possibility back at camp.  She and Daniel agree to go against Lydia and Hai, and so need the votes split in case Chanelle can’t vote.  Thus, Daniel and Jenny’s vote cancel out the one each of Hai and Lydia.  The problem is Hai is dead-set on splitting 3-1 in favor of Jenny.  Why I’m not sure, unless he also knows Mike can’t vote, and so thinks that’s all he needs.  But then again, if Mike has an idol they need to watch for, then Mike can vote, so what’s even the point?  I don’t know, and as we’ll see in a bit, I’m not sure Hai knows either.  

The point here is that the split may not favor Daniel and Chanelle’s plan, and thus Chanelle pushes for a 2-2 split along gender lines.  Smart move for her, but Chanelle doesn’t really pull it off well.  She’s far too pushy, leaving Hai suspicious as we head off to Tribal Council.  With 20 minutes still left in the episode.  You think this one might get crazy?  

It’s a good thing we have craziness to look forward to, since out Tribal pre-votes is… Just kind of ok.  There’s nothing bad about it, but none of it is memorable.  Only thing of note is that Chanelle has gotten better at bluffing, since she plays things a lot more confidently here.  We do learn that the pen this time is a candlestick; that’s pretty cool.  But really, the highlight of this vote is the split.  Sure enough, Hai correctly called Chanelle’s bluff, and kept his vote for Lydia.  Also, can we take a minute to have sympathy for poor Hai here?  The dude was SO CONFUSED about there only being four votes, and I just felt so bad for him.  He looked genuinely sad about the whole thing, and I just wanted to give him a hug.  

There’s a revote that’s effectively just Hai and Daniel, and here’s where Daniel makes the first of (many) blunders of the evening.  Hai has literally no reason to switch his vote, which he reaffirms later on.  Daniel, playing both sides, does.  If he switches here, he can throw in his lot with one side, and defend himself with the patented Natalie Anderson “I got confused” bluff form “Survivor San Juan del Sur”.  

But no, he sticks to his guns, so now he and Hai have to talk in an open forum (others can talk, but only they have to come to the consensus).  It is then that Daniel goes full John Cochran.  And not skilled John Cochran.  This is John Cochran circa “Survivor South Pacific”.  Not only does he do everything in his power to avoid drawing rocks (which, admittedly, is fair at this stage), but he decides to try and save himself in the eyes of Hai and Lydia (who understandably aren’t happy with him right now) by throwing Chanelle under the bus, saying it was all her idea.  Sure, Daniel, alienate the one person left who ISN’T mildly pissed at you, see how far that gets you.  

To be fair, Daniel does extract a promise from Hai and Lydia that they won’t “Hold this against [him]” before switching his vote, but the damage is done.  You’ve betrayed Mike.  You’ve blown your tight second by trying to pin the blame on her.  And while Hai and Lydia are doubtless grateful to still be here, your wishy-washy performance makes you seem an unreliable ally, and they have basically no reason to stick with you once they have other options.  They can easily go with the seemingly more stable Chanelle, and once Mike gets his vote back, he’s an even more stable options.  Point being, you’ve made yourself the least desirable individual in a group of three individuals vying to be the third with a tight pair.  Yes, you could technically make a majority, but with how badly you’ve burned both Mike and Chanelle, good luck getting that group to work with you.  

Lost in the shuffle is Jenny, the true victim in all this.  Contrary to what I thought pre-season, I’m sorry to see her go.  She had some of the “bossy” elements I thought she would, particularly in taking charge of the triangle puzzle, but not in an annoying way.  She was definitely an intriguing character, and while we didn’t know the most about her, she was still intriguing, and I do wish she could have lasted longer.  

This episode… I hesitate to call it “good”.  It definitely wasn’t bad, but I feel like the timing was off.  How early they did certain elements (the challenge, when Vati first headed to Tribal Council) really sucked a lot of the mystery out of the episode, which makes it hard to enjoy.  And it felt like a lot of the points were setup rather than payoff.  That said, Daniel’s actions at Tribal, while dumb and cringe-worthy, were definitely memorable in a good way.  Plus, while the episode is mostly setup, it’s GOOD setup, and makes me really look forward to future episodes.  “Intriguing”.  That’s a good word for the episode.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: Survivor 42 Episode 2: Questions of Character

Hello everyone, and welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, where IT’S OUR 300TH BLOG, BABY!  Ok, technically we’ve done more than that, between the miscellaneous topic blogs I’ve done throughout the seasons, but if you’re talking straight episode recaps and cast assessments, this hits #300.  Cue trumpets.  

But yes, tonight’s episode is a treat, truly a wonderful story to see unfold.  But before I can tell you THAT story, I have to tell you THIS story.  Yes, it’s time for another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!  

Relatively minor, and considering I was blogging a double-length episode on a time limit, I will take that!  In short, last episode was a bit of a tease when it came to the theme song.  Yes, we did not get one, once again, but we came very close twice.  Firstly in the opening of the season, when they played a few bars over the logo.  Seriously, CBS, would it KILL you to just give us a full theme song once in the season?  I’m sure you could find some fan willing to do the whole thing for pennies.  The other time was invoked by Ika, where the youngsters singing it was what initially set Rocksroy off on his rant about their work ethic.  True, his point was more overall laziness, but come on, man, spot them this.  If you DON’T hear the music in your head at least once while you’re out there, I doubt you’re a true “Survivor” fan.  Let them have this.  

Oddly, despite a unanimous vote, we start off back at Ika.  In this case, it’s less “Let’s dissect what happened”, and more “Be thankful we survived”, though it does give us more information on the dynamics of the tribe.  Specifically, Romeo confirms that while Tori was spared, she’s still on the outs, though the tribe intends to make her feel comfortable.  Tori, for her part, is wrestling with her emotions after that vote off, as she admits a small part of her really wanted to be going home, to be able to eat, and sleep comfortably, all that stuff you miss on a desert island.  Still, she reaffirms her determination to keep on fighting, and we move on.  

Emotions are running high the next morning as well at Vati, though for a very different reason.  Jenny and Chanelle are out for a walk, and happen upon a hermit crab, which freaks them out.  Normally I’d lambast them for being frightened of a virtually harmless creature, but to be fair, that hermit crab was HUGE!  Squirrels are virtually harmless as well, yet I think most people would freak out to encounter one several times the usual size.  After Chanelle suggests she may need to be the provider for her group, something she had hoped would be undertaken by others, they catch the crab and bring it back to camp to boil.  

This is where the real emotion of the scene comes in.  Hai initially does not partake of the crab, and shares with us that it’s because of his veganism.  He had thought that the supply of rice and fruit on the island could sustain him.  Unfortunately, he got cast on a season with no rice, and presumably most of the fruit trees are fairly depleted from the cast of “Survivor 41”.  Thus, hunger is a contributing factor, but also his fear of being a target due to people thinking he won’t have strength from not eating.  A fair enough worry, though I’d frame it more as “Eating is a social activity I’m missing out on.”  See the fate of Kimmi Kappenberg on “Survivor The Australian Outback” for an example of this.  As to how I feel about Hai’s angst, it kind of depends on his reasoning behind being vegan, something he doesn’t share with us.  If it’s a religious thing, or just a person preference, then the angst is 100% understandable, and he has my sympathy.  If it’s something he does to protest farming practices (which, to be fair, are pretty horrific), then I get the logic, but surely Hai would realize it doesn’t apply out here?  It’s not like Jenny and Chanelle made a trip to the local Food Mart for a pack of hermit crab.  That thing was just literally crawling around on the beach.  I don’t think you can say it was cruelly mistreated purely for the sake of our food.  

In any case, however I feel about the whole thing is moot, since for the sake of one’s game, purely from a logical standpoint, the smart move is to eat the damn thing, which Hai eventually does.  To his credit, he doesn’t make too big a public deal about it, and no one seems to hold it against him, so we move on.  

I mentioned that we had a good story this episode, and I meant it.  Really, the whole season of “Survivor” is like a story, or 16-20 individual stories cut and pasted into at least a semi-cohesive narrative.  If you don’t believe me, just ask Jonathan Penner (“Survivor Cook Islands”).  He would know.  He’s like a storyteller.  That’s what he does.  It follows, then, that every player is a “character” in said story, with all the strengths and weaknesses that go along with it.  

This is brought home to us with our first scene at Taku for the day.  Despite it initially seeming like it’s going to be about illness, since Jonathan and Lindsey discuss the latter’s not feeling well, talk quickly turns to the still-full-of-energy Maryanne.  After she does an admittedly hilarious impression of the killer from “The Shining”, we get to hear what her tribe thinks of her.  First Marya, then Lindsay, comment on how while her enthusiasm is nice, it gets grating that she’s so full of energy 100% of the time.  What interesting is that’s the sort of stuff that makes us the audience LOVE Maryanne.  The humor.  The enthusiasm.  The energy.  And the smile.  That damned smile.  

But those same things, while fun in a CHARACTER, can be grating in a real-life PERSON, particularly on “Survivor”.  You’re already in a high-stress situation, and you can’t get away from anyone, really.  At least not without risking the destruction of your game.  Thus, the very things that make someone “pop” on tv make them hard to live with as a character.  Look at Rupert Boneham (“Survivor Pearl Island”).  Still one of the most fan-beloved characters to this day, and yet, by all accounts of those who’ve played with him, difficult to live with at best.  Same principle with Maryanne.  

Thankfully for her, Omar changes the subject to himself, and more specifically his religion.  Omar is Muslim, one of only three to appear on US “Survivor” so far.  Omar talks for a bit about the difficulties of being a Muslim in a post 9/11 world, and it all hits home nicely.  Omar says he’s telling his tribe so they won’t think he’s idol hunting when he goes off on his own.  Why he didn’t mention this SOONER, since now it looks like he’s covering his butt, I can’t say, but his tribe seems to buy it, so no harm done from a results perspective.  After offering to answer any of his tribe’s “questions” about Islam, Jonathan reciprocates regarding Christianity, and Lindsay says she WOULD offer to do the same with Judaism, but admits that she is “Not a good Jew”.  The tribe has a good laugh, and Maryanne kindly weaves a palm frond into a mat for him during his prayers.  A nice little scene, and we move on.  

Ika is not done with the strategizing though.  Lest we forget, Drea reminds us that she got an extra vote at the last Tribal Council.  And if THAT wasn’t enough of a reminder, her chyron now reads “extra vote + advantage amulet”.  Because that’s CLEARLY what’s important about her, not her occupation or hometown or anything!  While Drea acknowledges her good position with Rocksroy and Romeo, she admits that she might do better forming a women’s alliance with Tori and Swati.  Good to keep your options open; can’t complain about the logic.  

What I can, and will, complain about is how Drea overplays her hand here.  She’s in a good position for the pitch, since the mere offer of an alliance is juicy enough to likely get both Tori and Swati to agree.  After all, it’s a step up for both of them, particularly Tori given her near miss at the previous Tribal.  Plus, three of them make a majority; no need to even use the extra vote.  But no, Drea just HAS to go and blab about it to them anyway.  Chalk it up to “Big-Move-Itis” if you will, but whatever the cause, this move has no noticeable benefit to Drea.  It wasn’t needed to form the alliance, or to give them power, and only gives away information, a valuable currency in this game.  Plus, it gives people a reason to target you, which is EXACTLY what Tori and Swati discuss doing.  Way to go, Drea.  Really happy I didn’t listen to my gut, and make you my winner pick this season.  

It seems the show really DOES want to remind us that the only thing that matters anymore are idols and advantages, as our next scene is Mike looking for an idol.  The man gives decent commentary, though I do wish the editors had digitally added in an “Immunity Idol Here” sign above the thing, just to follow along with his joke.  After searching difficult places, he eventually finds it relatively visible in the crook of a tree.  Just needed to move some schmutz away, and it’s hanging out right there.  But this is no ordinary idol!  Yes, this is the “Beware Advantage” back to rear its ugly head once again!  Mike, being unaware of the consequences, takes the thing, which I honestly can’t blame him for.  Mike even gets off easy in the phrase department, having to say “There is such grace in the game of soccer, it makes me cry.”  Mike, however, thinks this is the WORST phrase, as he actually really dislikes the game of soccer.  Even as someone who dislikes sports, I would find it hard to conjure up that much hatred for soccer.  Mike will set said hatred aside for his game, though he’ll have to do something about that lost vote…

Back at Taku, we finally get to see some of THEIR dynamics, beyond Maryanne slightly irritating most everyone.  We see that a power couple has formed, and it’s Omar and Jonathan.  Their logic is that they cover each other’s weaknesses well, since Omar is more puzzle-oriented, and Jonathan is more physical-oriented.  They jibe together well, which makes me laugh only because SO MANY people thought they wouldn’t due to Omar saying he does not like “Ozzy” types, whom Jonathan directly compares himself to.  It’s a tried and tested strategy, which I can’t fault for either of them.  True, that’s only 2 out of 5 people, but given that Jonathan’s challenge strength is likely needed, I don’t see them being in trouble any time soon.  However, I do need to comment on how WERID Jonathan makes it.  Rather than just saying they cover each other’s back, Jonathan says they make “The Ultimate Person”, and now I’m just envisioning Omar and Jonathan combining into a giant robot Voltron-Style.  

Thankfully we see that Omar and Jonathan’s strategy goes beyond just hoping Jonathan’s challenge strength will make him indispensable.  He admits that he and Lindsay get along well, and Jonathan admits to having a soft spot for Maryanne.  I suspect this is helped by Omar and Maryanne seeming to get along well on puzzles and the like, but we never get it confirmed.  On the outs, then, must be Marya, doubtless in part due to tanking the challenge in the opening episode.  Marya, though, has her own way into the hearts of the tribe.  She tells the story of her brother, a nurse in NYC, who was the first person in the US to die of COVID.  Photos abound, and it turns out Marya had a picture him engraved on her necklace, to bury on the island.  It’s all very sweet, and even though we’ve still probably connected with Marya the least, there’s still a good connection there.  Damn you and your emotional beats, show!

Back at Vati, we see Mike putting his “Save his butt” plan into action, telling Jenny about his lost vote.  This makes sense.  Mike and Jenny, as established, are a tight duo, and Mike does need to tell SOMEONE.  After all, with numbers so small on the tribes, a missing vote will not go unnoticed, and you need to prep for all possibilities.  Having a close ally do the talking helps make it harder for you to be targeted specifically, while still ensuring your alliance has the needed numbers.  

What I CANNOT get behind is Mike then going and telling Daniel.  While this does help clarify where things stand, by implying that Daniel and Chanelle are the swing votes on this tribe, it’s an incredibly STUPID move on Mike’s part.  As swing votes, there’s no reason to suppose you can trust Daniel.  Not to mention Mike does himself no favors by forgetting at which fork in the trail he buried the idol.  He does find it eventually, but it doesn’t look too good on him.  Sure enough, after Daniel goes down heavily in my estimation by talking about how good the “Beware Advantage” twist is, he persuades Mike to not say his code phrase at the challenge.  To be fair, that IS actually a good move for Mike, since it’s awkward to say the phrases more than once and make it sound natural, so best to wait for others to say their phrases first.  True, someone needs to take the first step, but this early, it’s unlikely that all three have been found so far, so better to wait.  Daniel, however, has the ulterior motive of making sure that Mike never gets an idol, so that he can control his game.  He also tells Chanelle, meaning now 2/3 of the tribe knows about his issue.  Way to go, Mike.  

CHALLENGE TIME!  And there are multiple reasons to be excited about this one.  First and foremost, it’s a blindfolded challenge, which are always worth some excitement.  Second, unlike last episode, we’ve gotten some more of the tribe dynamics from each tribe, and at least one target on each, leaving true mystery as to who loses this challenge!  Ika is still favored to lose, since both Taku and Vati have really only floated one target (Marya and Mike, respectively), but still, better than nothing!  

Unfortunately, fun as the challenge is, the tension is sucked out by the choice of caller.  This is another challenge where the caller is also the puzzle-solver.  And Taku picks JONATHAN?  REALLY?  The man who, by his own admission, sucks at puzzles?  Look, normally putting Jonathan on any portion of a challenge guarantees success, but puzzles are the exception!  He’s got a loud voice, but surely you can find someone else on your tribe who can yell, and DOESN’T SUCK at puzzles.  

Sure enough, Taku loses.  Unfortunately this is a double-loss for Maryanne, who mourns Zach being voted off first.  At first, I thought this was just her natural reaction to any vote, but it turns out she was attracted to Zach.  Not quite Billy Garcia levels of declaring her love, but pretty darn close, not helped by Probst talking about how she missed out on love.  

Maryanne, incidentally, is one of the targets, along with Marya.  Omar and Jonathan frame it as a debate between who they get along better with, versus loyalty.  A tricky choice, but on the whole, I would say eliminating Marya is the overall better choice.  Maryanne has shown strength in puzzles, while Marya has not shown much strength overall.  And loyalty matters less if you can’t work together overall.  Still, it’s a reasonable debate to have, and I can see how the choice could be tough.  Particularly after Maryanne, paranoid, starts going on an obvious idol hunt.  She doesn’t find anything, but it does get the pair questioning her.  And I should clarify, there is no BAD choice here.  Jonathan and Omar are the power brokers here, and they’re good either way thanks to Lindsay.  It’s nearly 50/50 between the two.  

And there’s a lot of tension to what the choice will be… RIGHT UP UNTIL TRIBAL COUNCIL!  You see, we SAW Maryanne in the season preview.  We saw her VERY clearly.  She was front and center, finding an advantage.  Which she could possibly have done during her idol hunt, thus keeping the tension pre-Tribal.  But now we’re at Tribal, and she hasn’t found it yet!  Gee, I wonder who’s going home: The person we saw in a scene that hasn’t happened yet, or the person we haven’t?

This is not to say that Tribal Council is boring by any stretch.  With Maryanne present, how could it not?  But before her, even Marya gets in some good commentary about how the tribe is like a family.  A bit trite, but it seems genuine coming from her, and makes nice for her inevitable sendoff.  Of course, Maryanne steals the show by again talking about her love life, with all the charm we have come to expect from her.  What I do want to particularly note, here, is her giving a quote of “I was thinking, you not only win ‘Survivor’, but find love as well!”  Funny on it’s own, but given the producer’s propensity for throwing in hints to the winner that are obvious in hindsight, I’m wondering if this doesn’t mean my Maryanne winner pick was more prescient than I thought.  Kudos to me if so!  

Unsurprisingly, Marya goes, and I can’t be too sorry.  She seems nice enough; I didn’t dislike her, but between her and Maryanne, Maryanne is by far the better character.  Unfortunately, given the timing of her exit, and her lack of memorable moments apart from talking about her brother, I fear she may be the forgotten cast member of this season.  If so, it’s a shame, since there’s nothing bad about her, and on another tribe, she might have been a breakout character.  Unfortunately, she was just overshadowed, but still not bad overall.  

This season so far is 2/2 in good episodes, I would say.  Really, if it weren’t for the previews giving away the outcome of the episode, I would have no complaints.  Point being the editing of the episodes is good.  Now make the editing of the previews equally good!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 42” Episode 1: Call-Back Kids

Say what you will about this cast, but let it never be said that they are not funny.  Haven’t laughed at an episode this much in a long time, at least for the first two thirds.  True, recent casts were no slouches, and had funny moments of their own, but it feels like we’ve got a big group of comedians this time around, with only one of them being an aspiring comedian.  Perhaps these people should rethink their career choices.  

It is my pleasure to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to!  If you all are hankering for a new season of “Survivor” as much as I am, let us waste no more time, and jump right into things.  

Thankfully, Probst’s “Blues Clues” style antics are limited to just the opening narration, where they’re more appropriate.  He clarifies that some twists will be kept from “Survivor 41”, particularly the “Beware Advantage”, some will be modified, and some new ones will be added.  Reasonable enough.  Hopefully this also means some will be taken out as well.  *cough* hourglass *cough* *cough* do or die *cough*

Our opening confessionals as well are pretty good, but nothing that stands out.  Jonathan and Drea talk about how tough the are, the latter accompanied by flashback footage of them doing track.  Omar makes what is doubtless the first of many animal metaphors from him this season (and he gives himself the full title of “Exotic Animal Veterinarian”.  Make that his chyron, you cowards).  Daniel gives the generic “How great it is to be on the show.” confessional.  But the real star here is Lydia.  Oh, not so much for the confessional itself.  It’s just talking about how she’s going to have a hard time in the environment.  Understandable, but of all things, she goes off about the sand.  The FREAKING SAND!  Not since Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”) have we had someone so set up to be out of their element, and thereby set up for a growth arc.  

Oh, you don’t think that was intentional?  Just you wait.  This will not be the last call back we get to a past season this episode.  

The humor doesn’t stop once we hit the beach, with multiple people, Zach in particular, stumbling over their awe at Jeff Probst.  Mike goes for a more subdued version of Erik Reichenbach (“Survivor Micronesia”) and soaks in the presence of Probst just standing there.  We also get our first taste of the infectious joy that is Maryanne, but we’ll be getting a lot more of that later.  Without further ado, Probst explains our challenge.  One person from each tribe runs into the jungle and up a rope ladder to collect a pair of oars, with another person running around the other side of the beach after said first person returns.  Once they come back with a pair of oars, all tribe members row a boat out around a buoy, to then collect some bamboo rods they can use to try and grab flint off a post, with the first tribe to do so winning said flint, plus a pot and machete.  Losers have to earn it “some other way”, more on that later.  Pretty standard and uneventful opening (save one wrinkle we’ll get to in a moment), but at least it’s not racing to get the supplies off the ship again.  

Since I’m talking about who is picked for what leg, you can imagine tribes make some BAFFLING choices.  Ika, the blue tribe, actually makes a solid choice here, going for Tori.  Athletic enough to keep one in the challenge, but no so much that you lose your best runner on the shorter leg.  Even Daniel, on the green Vati tribe makes a certain amount of sense, since he’s not UNATHLETIC (though later events will indicate he might have been a poor choice).  But Jonathan, from the orange Taku tribe?  On your FIRST leg?  Don’t get me wrong, he gets a decent lead, but that’s the guy you want to save as your anchor.  Their choice for the second leg, Lindsay, is athletic as well, so their OVERALL choices make sense.  I just don’t know why they switched legs.  

As to why Daniel might have been a bad pick?  Well, Tori manages to keep up with Jonathan decently well, but Daniel falls behind.  Less due to his running ability, more due to injury.  The man goes full “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” and dislocates his shoulder.  And I’m not just pulling that comparison out of my butt either.  The man outright refers to himself as “Stephenie LaGrossa” later on.  

It’s on the second leg that we see exactly why, in the end, who was on what leg didn’t matter too much.  Yes, one of the “New Twists” the show has put in is that people have to make a decision socially, together, in the middle of a challenge.  Thus, despite Lindsay arriving well before her other leg runners (Hai for Vati, Drea for Ika), she has to sit and wait for everyone to show up.  Once there, they decide together whether to get an as-yet unknown advantage or not.  I’m of two minds about this.  On the one hand, I like the idea of everyone having to socialize under an extreme time crunch, and hiding stuff at a challenge, such as idols, has worked well in the past.  In some ways, this is just an extension of that idea.  On the other hand, it DOES interrupt the flow of the challenge.  Really, I think the best compromise would have been to combine this with the Prisoner’s Dilemma of “Shipwheel Island”, as the fandom has dubbed it.  Let everyone go in their own little corner to make an unknown decision, without having to wait.  You CAN wait and discuss things once you know what’s coming, but do you delay your challenge performance for personal gain?  A good choice missed out upon.  

What I can say for certain is that while I like the IDEA of what they’re doing here, the execution is sorely lacking.  There’s two major aspects to this, with the primary one being the choice being too easy.  Rather than strategize, or have the chance of being backstabbed, all one has to do to get the advantage is untie 20 knots.  Thus, it becomes in everyone’s best interests to work together and all get an advantage.  Which they do.  Smart move, but predictable outcome.  The other is just a bit of cringe.  To sell the idea that they were running the challenge the entire time, production has provided them with mud and fake blood to smear on each other.  Um, why?  The mud I can kind of bet, but the blood is going a bit far!  It feels like the show is just trying to provide grossness for the sake of grossness.  And it’s particularly unnecessary, since this challenge leg took place ON A SANDY BEACH WITH NO MUD!  If no one walked the course, I can understand the mud, but again, fake blood just feels like it’s going too far.  

The rest of our challenge has no such gimmicks, and so can be commentated as such.  Taku still has a lead (presumably all agreed to run back in the order they arrived in to allay suspicion), which is only increased by their rowing capability.  Or rather, Jonathan’s rowing capability.  In what quickly becomes a theme for the season, Jonathan is more than capable of single-handedly doing the physical portions of challenges while his tribe just kind of sits back and lets him do his thing.  He and his tribe are around their buoy before the other tribes are even halfway there, with Ika having a particular struggle.  As there’s no puzzle to potentially botch, you would think Taku would have this in the bag.  They make the crucial mistake, though, of NOT putting Jonathan on a portion of the challenge.  Marya (pronounced like “Mariah”) goes up instead, and while there’s nothing to indicate she’d be BAD at this portion of the challenge, it seems like Jonathan could do better, because that’s kind of his thing.  The other tribes catch up, and Rocksroy of Ika manages to net a narrow victory, knocking his flint off the pole and scraping it along the sand to get a win.  

Marya looks to be the only one in trouble after the challenge.  True, Daniel’s performance was not that great either, but his injury, despite being terrible, in a sense helped him.  It showed he was giving his all, and his relative stoicism in the face of great pain earns him respect from his tribe, Mike in particular.  Really, the only misstep here is the attempt to play up the drama once medical comes through.  Probst keeps asking if this is game-ending, and how severe it can be, a sentiment undercut by the fact that WE’VE SEEN THIS INJURY HEALED BEFORE WITH NO ISSUE!  DANIEL LITERALLY CALLED IT OUT ONE MINUTE AGO!  Sure enough, his shoulder is popped back into place, and we move on.  

As Ika does not have to worry about undertaking some trial to get basic supplies, we get to know them first.  They get to know themselves through the traditional round-table sharing of occupations and general background, giving Swati a chance to talk about growing up as the daughter of Indian immigrants, and joining the National Guard.  Flashbacks are back and in full effect, and as with last season, I love them.  Still helping us connect with the cast.  Speaking of connections, Tori is seeking to use her therapy background (though she’s referring to herself as a “caregiver” rather than a therapist, which is honestly understandable in this environment) to connect with people, though it seems she bonds more over shared experiences by age than by any other sort of connection.  It’s old versus young, as she, Swati, and Zach all connect over age, while we see Romeo, Rocksroy, and Drea bonding at the water well.  No word yet on which side will win out, though.  

Heading over to our tribes, we see that their trials to get supplies… are the exact same ones as last season.  Yeah, no one would complain at a change-up here, show!  Instead, they have the “oil the bucket with water or count the triangles” choice again, with the four-hour window for each.  Oh, but the show does change some things up, as they REALLY want people to go for the triangles this time.  Each tribe now gets two guesses (which we later learn must be given simultaneously) instead of one, while only one person may collect the same amount of water, as opposed to two from last season.  Both tribes select the triangle challenge, though Mike thinks his tribe needs convincing.  Correctly surmising that he will likely be called upon for his strength to complete this particular task, he lifts the bucket for water and declares it “heavy”, thus convincing his group to go for the triangles.  They struggle, forcing Jenny to come in and take charge.  Reasonable enough, if she’s the person best equipped to do so.  Not sure how working in the fashion industry helps, but she’s definitely puzzle-oriented, so no complaints there.  What I CAN complain about is her attitude.  Taking charge is one thing, but she comes across as pandering, like she was addressing little kids.  There’s no confessionals about it, but you can tell from facial expressions that a couple of people were rubbed the wrong way.  

Vati at least comforts themselves that if they’re struggling, Taku can’t be getting it either.  Sure enough, we cut to Jonathan struggling.  To his credit, he admits he’s not a puzzle guy.  As such, he, Jackson, and Marya go off to do what shelter construction they can, while Omar, Maryanne, and Lindsay stay behind.  Reasonable overall.  I might have switched Lindsay with Marya, but after the bamboo pole building, I can understand wanting to keep Marya away from challenges.  Both tribes come up with similar guesses, Vati going for 50 and 51, Taku going for 51 and 52.  Sure enough 51 is correct, and so we move on.  Honestly, the best part of the challenge was the editors drawing the triangles Maryanne drew in the air with her.  Good job, editing team.  

Back at Ika, we see a crack as to how the old vs. young might split.  Apart from Zach and Romeo bonding over their mutual skinniness, Tori manages to make herself a target.  While going off to gather food, she takes some time out to idol hunt, bragging about how subtle she is and how no one will suspect a thing.  This is hilariously intercut with people back at camp talking about how Tori is looking for an idol.  To her credit, though, she DOES realize her mistake once she’s back at camp, catching a vibe that she’s been talked about.  Zach clues her in to confirm it.  Fortunately, Rocksroy has managed to make himself something of a bother.  He’s a stay-at-home dad, and BOY does it show.  He has a bigger work ethic than most everyone else, except possibly Drea, and describes the process as “Like herding cats”.  This naturally grates on everyone, and gives Tori a viable alternative to herself.  Rocksroy does ask to be told if he’s being “too bossy”, and does get told to tone it down, but by then, the damage is done, and we’ve got some good intrigue for our tribe.  

Tori’s not the only one with advantage issues, however.  Despite having had it for several hours, Drea, as well as the audience, have no idea exactly what advantage they GOT at the challenge.  Drea goes away from camp, not caring that people think she’s looking for an idol (and oddly, never getting any flak for said move).  She reads the thing, intercut with Hai and Lindsay reading the same thing.  This is a new one for the show, the “Advantage Amulet”.  All amulets in the game must be played simultaneously to be effective, and every amulet leaves when its owner is voted out.  The catch is that the fewer amulets are left in the game, the more powerful they become.  Three together make an extra vote (presumably one shared amongst the three players), two together make a Steal-A-Vote, and one alone is basically a hidden immunity idol, sans stupid phrases.  

This, quite frankly, is a deviously BRILLIANT idea.  You force people to work together for an advantage, only then to incentivize them to turn on each other for personal game?  Bravo, “Survivor”.  You’ve remembered what makes you interesting.  Of particular good note here is that using these effectively requires good social maneuvering, and not just in needing to cooperate to play them if more than one is in the game.  As mentioned, it is advantageous for everyone to have the only amulet left, so they don’t have to cooperate and have more power.  The flaw here is that you have Mutually Assured Destruction, since two other people ALSO know you’re gunning for them, and are gunning for you, as Hai articulates.  Thus, you want them gone, but don’t want to seem like you’re targeting them.  Nice little balancing act there which adds to the strategy, and makes good tv.  Congratulations, the show actually implemented a new advantage that’s GOOD!

Another flashback on Vati helps us to further connect with Mike, talking about growing up in the projects, but more importantly, showing us how cute he was as a baby.  If I could say so without sounding creepy, I would say I want to pinch his little cheeks.  Our breakdown gets bluntly stated in confessional by Chanelle.  After seeing that Hai and Lydia vibe well and pair off, and noting that Mike and Jenny have also paired off, Chanelle proposes a bond of mutual safety with Daniel, since they need someone to pair with.  Logical enough.  Daniel then gets asked about a surgical scar, which leads to his flashback regarding his leukemia as a child.  Again, very touching, and the flashbacks continue to be effective.  Not much else to say.  

So, now we get the tribe dynamics on Taku, right?  Bonding, yes, but dynamics, not so much.  Taku’s entire segment is taken up by Jackson telling everyone his backstory, with even more flashback pictures.  Long story short, he is a trans man who began his transition 8 or 9 years ago, opening by mentioning that he had applied to “Survivor” beforehand when he still used “she/her” pronouns.  He talks about the split this led to with his family, and the renewed bond when his mother’s illness brought them back together, and the understanding they were all able to build.  Frankly, a touching story that, yet again, helps us bond with a cast member.  Especially good is that it is not marred by any confessional saying “I’m threatened by Jackson now.  His story is too good at the end.”  Doubtless some are thinking it, but we avoid saying it out loud, and thus a nice moment can just be a nice moment.  

The next morning, we are introduced to one of the other good things about this season: OMAR’S EMU SHIRT!  Seriously, seemingly out of nowhere, the man switches from his Hawaiian shirt to an orange tee with a giant emu head randomly slapped on it.  I kind of love it.  

Our actual new thing of the morning is a boat, which must take one person from each tribe away for unspecified reasons.  Maryanne ends up volunteering for Taku, wanting to gather information for herself and her tribe, in that order.  Our other tribes decide by random chance and rock-paper-scissors, resulting in Jenny going for Vati, and Drea for Ika.  Jenny is noticeably less excited than the other two, but all greet each other warmly enough.  Sure enough, rather than do something new and innovative, it’s just Shipwheel Island again.  We don’t even get to hear the bonding conversation this time, if it even took place!  Drea says “I don’t know these people” when offered her choice.  Instead, the time is used to the admittedly good effect of helping us bond with Maryanne.  She’s stood out for a while with her infections smile and loud personality, but here we see her backstory, coming as an immigrant to Canada from Kenyan parents.  You know how I feel about these flashbacks by now, I shouldn’t need to say it.  

But with no bonding, how do people react to the Shipwheel Island choice?  Drea goes for the risk because she wants more advantages, Maryanne goes for the risk because religious people play too “conservatively” in her opinion (bear in mind, “Survivor 41” had not yet aired, and so she hadn’t seen Shan), while Jenny correctly reads that both women will go for the risk, and so protects her vote.  Smart moves all around, I’d say.  

Sadly, the next boat to come is not a happy one.  Rather than us getting another “JD attempting to lie” type scene (presumably everyone who came back from Shipwheel Island was either truthful or a good liar), this one bears Jeff Probst.  But why?  Well, it’s a bit controversial.  It seems Jackson aped the style of Kathy Sleckman from “Survivor Micronesia” during the casting process, and did not disclose that he was on medication.  Specifically, Jackson explains that he takes lithium-based medication for psychology-related issues, which he had been trying to wean himself off of, on the advice of his nurse wife.  Production found out about this mere days before the beginning of the season, and allowed him some time to get the experience, but say they have to pull him since the deprivation of the show could react badly to him now.  Tearful goodbyes are had, and a sad departure, though Jackson seems to remain in good spirits.  An understandable move, and not being a medical expert, I’m going to assume Jackson was in real risk, and thus did need to be pulled.  That said, I WILL fault production for so emphasizing the “You didn’t tell us this.” part of the narrative.  Whether it’s true or not, to me, is irrelevant.  If true, it does make production blameless, but by so insisting that Jackson say so, it makes it feel like they’re out here covering their butts rather than trying to look after someone’s safety because it’s, you know, THE RIGHT THING TO DO?  Touching or not, this moment really does become the downer of the episode.  

Our immunity challenge is basically a repeat of “Dragging the Dragons”, the first immunity challenge of “Survivor Cagayan”, though the with boat dragging aspect of “Survivor Kaoh Rong” thrown in.  Good challenges to combine.  We even have a good immunity idol to go with it.  Basically a golden Ouroboros.  Not sure how well it fits with the culture of Fiji, but hey, it’s new and distinct, so I’ll take that.  Plus, it splits into two idols, rather than having two separate idols, which I always prefer.  Granted, one half of the idol is just “the base of the idol”, but hey, it’s a step up from the butt idol of “Survivor Cook Islands”.  Probst also takes this time to reveal that the “Shot in the Dark” twist is back, but as it’s unchanged, I don’t feel much need to go over it again.  

And split will the idol need to.  Evidently the “two tribes going to Tribal Council in the first episode” thing was not a keeper, as only the last place tribe will be voting someone out.  This helps a great deal with the mystery.  Taku did not get much development so far outside of Jackson, which is understandable given his limited screen time available, but also means they were pretty much a lock to win immunity.  Vati and Ika, however, both have solid and interesting dynamics, so there’s still some mystery as to who will win.  

That is, until the challenge gets going.  Jonathan once again carries Taku, though Vati manages to keep pace during the boat-pulling portion.  Poor Ika just keeps falling further and further behind, bringing to mind the performance of the “Brains” tribe from the titular “Survivor Cagayan”.  Ok, that’s maybe a BIT of an exaggeration, but when one of their big guns, Rocksroy, is visibly flagging, you’re in trouble.  Solid puzzle performances from both Taku and Vati net them first and second place, respectively, though Rocksroy tries to smooth things over with his tribe with a cooldown hug.  

Continuing with the “Survivor Cagayan” callbacks, Tori starts off doing her best Garrett Adelstein impression, talking openly about the tribe dynamics, and specifically the suspicion on her.  Thankfully for her, personal disaster is averted when Drea does her best Tasha Fox and starts having private conversations with her.  Sure enough, between his bossiness at camp, and his lackluster challenge performance, Rocksroy is a target.  Not to mention that his main purpose, building the shelter, is now done, making him less useful to the tribe.  Honestly, probably the best target the group has at this point.  Much as I would want it to be Tori, she’s had more of a solid challenge performance, and given Romeo’s ins with the younger group, they’re probably going to have a majority.  Drea is really the only one who would not benefit in some way from a Rocksroy exit, and yet she’s the one suggesting it.  So I guess she does benefit, in that she gets her way.  Seems like a nice consensus boot.  

Then, however, we must throw our preconceptions out the window.  It seems the old vs. young split was not so entrenched as we though, when Swati and Rocksroy get together, and agree that Zach must go, for costing the tribe the challenge.  Romeo, meanwhile is also against Rocksroy going, because of said old vs. young split.  Ok, is this a big thing, or isn’t it?  The show really doesn’t make that clear.  Thus, we come down to a Zach vs. Tori split, which Zach realizes, throwing Tori under the bus HARD.  Romeo is more in favor of Tori going, given that he has a slight alliance with Zach, but Rocksroy is immovable in his desire for Zach’s boot.  Not sure that’s the course you want to go when you yourself have been flagging, but you do you, I guess.  

Nominally, our choice is between Tori and Zach, but really, we know it’s between Rocksroy and Zach.  The problem, you see, is that we’ve seen that Tori is a finder of the “Beware Advantage”.  She has not found it yet, therefore she cannot go.  This is the problem when you include such spoilers in your season opener.  Yes, even if you avoided all preview images for the season, they LITERALLY SHOW IT DURING PROBST’S OPENER!  WHO THOUGHT THIS WAS A GOOD IDEA?  So, between Rocksroy and Zach, who should go?  Eh, either one works, but I still fall on the side of Rocksroy being the better boot.  He rubs more people the wrong way, causing metaphorical friction in the tribe, and is little better in challenges than Zach.  Plus, with Zach aligned with more people, it gives the tribe members more options in their mind.  

Our Tribal Council is sadly not the stuff of legends, as one would hope from a season opener.  It’s good enough, and the banter about body language between Zach and Tori at the end did stand out as a highlight, but ultimately it’s just a solid, but forgettable, slide to the inevitable vote.  Drea finds out she got an extra vote, and Zach, correctly reading his danger, plays his Shot in the Dark.  He claims his 16% chance at safety, and I’m surprised Probst didn’t call back to Voce of “Survivor 41” and give the exact percentage, though I suppose it wouldn’t have made sense to Zach.  We see that Zach was right to take the chance, since he was to be a unanimous boot by the rest of the tribe, but it does not pay off.  Zach, as you would expect, goes home.  I’m overall not too sorry.  He seems like a nice-enough guy, but we’ve seen his archetype before, and while I may dislike Tori more as a person, she does create conflict, which can at least make for good tv.

All that said, Zach was not the “second person voted out”, Probst.  He was first.  Jackson’s exit was not a vote.  Keep your terms straight.    

Overall, a solid start to the season.  Once again, we bond well with the cast, and their sense of humor as a collective serves them well.  Really, the Jackson exit is the low point, and while there was value to be found afterward, it seemed like a downer, with a lot of the humor sucked out.  Hopefully next episode can get us past the darkness, and keep the laughs coming!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 42 Cast Assessment”

Ah, the sweet, sweet feeling of NOT needing to wait over a year to talk about new “Survivor” content.  Sure, the bios are still noticeably lacking in information, but hey, at least we actually GET the tribe divisions pre-season this time.  Already a leg up on the previous season, and for once that’s actually a compliment, and not meant as a dig at a bad season.  

Ladies, gentlemen, non-binary individuals, it is my esteemed pleasure to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to!  With the announcement of a new cast a month out from the show’s premiere, that mean’s it’s naturally time for me to make snap judgments about each of them that will inevitably be wrong, and then be mercilessly mocked for my ignorance later!  I’m sure you’ve all got your mocking sticks ready, so let’s waste no more time, and jump right into this cast assessment!

Jonathan Young (29, Beach Service Company Owner, Gulf Shores, AL, Taku Tribe): A fun fact about Jonathan is that he was a contest on the Discovery Kids show “Endurance”, a fact that he slyly references by using “Endurance”, with the capital “E” to describe himself.  Nice bit of subtlety there, Jonathan.  For those who don’t know, “Endurance” was kind of like “Survivor”, but for kids.  A group gets put in some wilderness (usually in the US for travel purposes), then compete against each other in a series of challenges, both physical and interpersonal, to become the last pair remaining and win the grand prize.  Will this help him on “Survivor”?  Eh, probably not much.  There’s worse training you can do, but “Endurance” was effectively catered cabin camping, as compared to the more brutal nature of “Survivor”, and the interpersonal politics only took one so far when elimination came down to effectively a game of “Rock, Paper, Scissors”.  Honestly, I think the thing that’s most helpful about Jonathan’s time on “Endurance” is the fact that his season was one of the few that went international.  They filmed in Fiji; in fact on the same island “Survivor” uses today.  Far-fetched as it may be, I could see Jonathan’s familiarity with the land being helpful in terms of finding idols and advantages in the game.  Tempting as it might be to look at Jonathan’s gameplay on “Endurance” for clues to how he’ll do here, the fact is that was 15 years ago, and a person changes a lot in that time.  As to how Jonathan is now?  He’s basically the most quintessential “Florida Man” I’ve ever seen, which is impressive for someone who doesn’t actually live in Florida.  The dude is all about athleticism and a good time, but not much else.  He compares himself to Ozzy, which seems apt given his strengths and weaknesses.  It speaks poorly of his chances of winning, but bear in mind the only time Ozzy went out pre-merge was because he ASKED to as a strategy.  As such, I’d put Jonathan in the same category: Coasts along on his strength early on, only to be picked off as a threat in the early-to-mid merge.  

Marya Sherron (47, Stay-At-Home Mom, Noblesville, IN, Taku Tribe): Normally I’d be down on the chances of the “Mom” archetype that Marya seems to play into, but as we saw with Tiffany and Heather last season, that can work to one’s advantage.  That said, there are some red flags I’m noticing for Marya.  The pet peeves rear their ugly head, as while one is relatively harmless to her chances (people who don’t cover their sneezes, which unless Bobby Jon Drinkard from “Survivor Palau” is secretly coming back this season, she probably doesn’t need to worry too much), but “meanness” is a bit harder to stomach.  Granted, it’s not as bad as one’s pet peeve being, say, “Liars”, but it’s not a particularly good sign in my book either.  She also talks about wanting to be a leader, and to play like Angelina (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) and Tony (“Survivor Cagayan”), which at best seems like a weird, slightly chaotic combination in my book.  Unfortunately, the real nail in the coffin for Marya is the tribe she’s on.  It’s probably the strongest of the three challenge-wise, which means she won’t be vulnerable for a few tribal councils most likely, but that’s partly because this tribe skews younger, making her stand out, which is particularly bad in the early days of “Survivor”.  They also skew fairly quirky, which again, not a word I would use to describe Marya.  She may not be the first target on their minds, unless she costs them a challenge, but I’d still expect Marya to be a pre-merge boot, though later rather than earlier within that category.  

Romeo Escobar (37, Pageant Coach, Norwalk, CA, Ika Tribe): You know, sometimes it’s really hard to pick a first boot out of a cast.  Perhaps because everyone seems relatively even in terms of tribe challenge ability, perhaps because everyone presents themselves really well, perhaps because people outright lie in their bio.  Then sometimes you get a Semhar Tadesse (“Survivor South Pacific”) whose very presence screams “First Boot”.  Unfortunately for Romeo, he falls into the latter category for me.  Right off the bat, he strikes me as the type who will bring a lot of drama.  Great for television, bad for sticking around, especially when tribes are this small.  When even he describes himself as “impatient”, you know you’ve got an issue.  Plus, while this is more of a personal annoyance, he’s about the only person on this cast who says “No player has been like me before.”  Now, as a pageant coach, Romeo must be used to dealing with big personalities, so if he had the opportunity to stick around a few days, and let others start drama of their own, I could see him having a decent run.  Unfortunately, he’s on what looks set to be the “disaster tribe” of this season, and by sticking out so much, he’s just doomed to an early exit should his tribe attend Tribal Council early, which they likely will.  Please prove me wrong man, but my gut says you’re doomed.  

Tori Meehan (25, Therapist, Rogers, AR, Ika Tribe): Hoo boy, here we go.  We need to talk about Tori.  Let’s go through her bio shall we?  Her pet peeves are “When people lack self-awareness, are emotionally reactive, immature, or petty.”  She brags about how easy it was to get through college debt-free.  She’s ultra-religious, literally listing Jesus as her hero, and referencing the importance of her faith over and over.  She DARES to compare herself to Kim Spradlin, arguably the greatest player of the game of all time.  She goes and has a degree similar to my own, thereby putting her in far too close proximity to myself for my liking.  And then, if what I’ve seen about her social media is to be believed, she’s a vaccine denier (though I’ll admit I don’t have firsthand information on this one).  All this combines to make Tori very likely to win the game.  That game of course being “Which Contestant Can Make Matt Despise Them The Quickest?”  The game of “Survivor”?  Not so much.  If she annoys me, chances are she’s going to annoy at least SOME other people out there, who are likely to end up on her tribe at some point.  And while I’m TRYING to not see overt religion as a red flag (as Shan proved last season, one can still play a competent game with overt religion as well), this feels too excessive even for me.  Her pet peeves, as should be obvious, do her no favors either.  So, with all these marks against her, why do I not say she’ll be the first boot over Romeo, whom I might actually ENJOY watching, given that she’s also on the likely “disaster tribe”?  Well… Much as I might WANT Tori to be sent packing super early, and much as I will enjoy the moment when it inevitably comes, we have a season preview to go off of, and that season preview gave us the bad news that Tori finds some advantage, presumably an idol based on her reading about the phrases to activate said idol.  For all my negative talk about Tori, she doesn’t seem to be an idiot, and so I think can be trusted to strategically play her idol to her advantage.  I suspect she leverages it with her tribe to get herself father in the game than her personality might otherwise indicate.  That said, she’s doomed at the merge, idol or no idol.  The problem is that with the larger merges these days, the merge bootee tends to be the person who can most easily bring the group to a consensus. and no one screams “Will annoy most people.” on this cast more than Tori.  As such, expect her to be gone right at the merge.  And oh, what a happy, happy merge it will be.  

Jackson Fox (48, Healthcare Worker, Houston, TX, Taku Tribe): Ah, this is the palate cleanser I needed.  While I have my favorites from spoiled cast previews, there’s a few that, when I read about them, surprise me pleasantly.  Jackson is that one this time, such that I nearly made him my pick to win it all.  Dude reminds me of a modern-day Lex Van Den Berghe (“Survivor Africa”) in that while first impression might lead to him seeming kind of freaky, he’s a real softie underneath, with good emotional awareness.  His comparison to Elaine from “Island of the Idols” seems both apt and in his favor in this case.  Sadly, there’s a couple of bits that stop me short of calling him my winner pick.  He’s the other “older person” on a younger-skewing tribe, though given his own quirks, I think this is less an issue for him than for Marya a few bios back.  More concerning is his pet peeve of “people who don’t get to the point” since “Survivor” LOVES to cast long-winded talkers.  Still, I’ve seen people with more concerning pet peeves do well, and I certainly don’t see Jackson being much vulnerable until the merge, as he seems to be on the tribe least likely to lose.  I’d say he probably leaves in the late merge for being too much of a threat, and if he can imitate Lex’s game without all the gut problems (both in terms of read and in terms of parasites), I’d say he has a decent shot to win it all.  Plus, the dude likes dogs.  How can you not root at least a little for someone who likes dogs?

Chanelle Howell (29, Executive Recruiter, New York, NY, Vati Tribe): Our first look at the “middle of the road” tribe.  More likely to win a challenge than Ika, less so than Taku.  Much like her tribe, Chanelle is kind of middle of the road for me.  Her bio is very guarded, without much to recommend her one way or the other.  There are a couple of red flags; notably she’s another one who dares to set a high bar by comparing herself to Kim Spradlin, and given how much she talks about analysis and numbers, I worry she may focus too much on the strategic side of the game, and not enough on the interpersonal one.  Even so, barring that she costs Vati a challenge (which I don’t see happening, but then I didn’t see Sara last season doing so either), there’s little reason to get rid of Chanelle, as she’s fairly inoffensive.  I’d expect her to be a mid-merge boot, possibly a decoy to flush an idol.  Either way, will be a decent player, around for a decent amount of time.  

Omar Zaheer (31, Exotic Animal Veterinarian, Whitby, Ontario, Canada, Taku Tribe): Ah, now HERE we’re getting to the good stuff.  Omar stood out to me for name alone, and the more I read his bio, the more I fell in love, and not just because he listed “Settlers of Catan” as a hobby.  The dude just exudes “fun” and “humor” from every orifice, and I am here for every minute of it.  Now, on paper, Omar’s got some issues.  While only one of his pet peeves (rudeness) is likely to come up frequently in the game (I don’t see many vet bills coming on the island, and I don’t think pigeons are indigenous to Fiji), the sheer number of them is concerning.  Plus, he makes the opposite mistake when comparing himself to past players, trying to hybridize too many than to few (including, yet again, Kim Spradlin).  However, one must not only consider the charm that comes through a mere photo of the guy, but also his instance on the motto of “They must learn to adapt, or they’ll be voted out of the tribe.”  The very core of the game, yet one not overtly emphasized by most players these days.  Very refreshing to see, and speaks well of his chances, in my opinion.  So, is he my winner pick?  Yeah… No…  While I do expect him to do well, probably making the finale, he’s out at five or four for certain.  No one wants to let charm like that get to the end, and while decent at challenges, I don’t see him immunitying his way to a win.  Despite his charm, given his quirks I would actually have him out fairly early were it not again for the season preview, which shows him aligning with another smart person (yet to be talked about) on his tribe, and I think the pair of them can take control.  Rest assured, he’d be a goner if he wasn’t on what’s likely to be the dominant tribe.  As is, he’ll definitely do well, but much as I’d like to say he kicks everyone’s butt with his airbending prowess, even with his advantaged position he just doesn’t have the prowess to clinch the win.  Also, kudos to the five of you who understand why I made that specific reference in relation to Omar.  

Swati Goel (19, Ivy League Student, Palo Alto, CA, Ika Tribe): Sadly, Swati is our major case of “Someone who would probably do ok were they on a different tribe for the season.”  True, Swati has a couple of red flags even given her tribe, notably complaining about people who are “emotionally manipulative”,  and admiring human scum Elon Musk.  That said, it’s hard for me to diss a fellow theater kid, and I applaud her comparing herself favorably to the underrated players of Victoria Baamonde (“Survivor Edge of Extinction”) and Kass McQuillen (“Survivor Cagayan”).  Honestly, the good and bad kind of balance out, and given how drama filled this tribe is, they’d have bigger fish to fry, and she can coast by for a while.  That’s what I would be saying were it not for the presence of Tori and her advantage/idol, where Swati I think is likely going to be the victim.  She may not be the top of everyone’s hit list, but when those on the bottom swing into power, she suddenly drops in stock, and unfortunately goes pre-merge.  Again, a shame for a fellow theater kid, but I call them as I see them.  

Hai Giang (29, Data Scientist, New Orleans, LA, Vati Tribe): Hai is another one I was kind of “meh” on at first glance, but grew to love the more I read about him.  While the dude is another one who tends more towards the strategic side of the game, rather than the interpersonal, he has a sense of justice and humanity that I think helps balance it out.  More concerning are, again, his pet peeves, which include judgmental people and patronizing people, both of which are likely to show up on “Survivor”.  The best I can say is he probably doesn’t have to worry about people wearing shoes indoors here.  That said, I have a hard time poo-pooing someone who identifies with the great Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”), and given that he’s a likely challenge anchor on a tribe that will need to keep strength around to have a chance, Hai will still around until at least the early merge, if not the mid-merge.  Really, he’s going to be his own undoing, as I see his sense of justice leading to him potentially falling on his sword (or torch) for someone else he’s allied with.  Overall nice guy who will stick around at least a decent amount of time.  Always good to see.  

Lindsay Dolashewich (31, Dietitian, Asbury Park, NJ, Taku Tribe): Lindsay better hope that the Taku Tribe is truly dominant, as in going to Tribal Council no more than once pre-merge.  Otherwise, she’s going to have an issue.  Age-wise, Lindsay is a good fit for her tribe, but she seems very stiff-backed and set in her ways based on her bio.  Add on her self-describing as “loud”, and she can get on one’s nerves very easily.  That said, this is a fairly quirky tribe, and one unlikely to have a lot of early boots, which probably saves Lindsay’s bacon for a bit.  Marya stands out more, and so will go first, but Lindsay probably goes somewhere in the early merge.  That said, she does compare herself to the underrated Lauren Beck (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), and recognizes that social game is paramount.  If she can channel that strategic acumen and social grace, and manage to avoid being as sound as she normally is, she could have a deep run.  

Mike Turner (58, Retired Firefighter, Hoboken, NJ, Vati Tribe): How nice of CBS to let Eric Abraham from last season chance his name and get a second shot.  Seriously, older retired African-American dude, big on loyalty and playing the long game?  I could pretty much just copy/past Eric’s bio from last season, and it would take a minute to notice the difference.  Dude seems likable enough, but as Eric demonstrated last season, such a long, basic game doesn’t work on a shortened season with a ton of twists.  Mike does SLIGHTLY better than Eric given that his tribe is more competent, and there are more obvious early targets, but like his counterpart, I just don’t see Mike making the merge in this group.  

Lydia Meredith (22, Waitress, Santa Monica, CA, Vati Tribe): Some players are here for strategy, some players are here for entertainment, some players are here for both.  Time will tell Lydia’s strategic capabilities, but from her bio alone, she will be entertaining.  The name of the game is comedy, folks.  Lydia is an aspiring comedian, and first describes herself as “funny” before all else.  How will that translate to the island?  Frankly, it depends upon how good the comedy is, which I have no way of assessing just from her bio.  Save for her player comparisons.  In addition to the odd choice of Tom Westman (“Survivor Palau”), she mentions Cirie (“Survivor Exile Island”) and Debbie Wanner (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  One intentionally funny and good at the social game, one unintentionally funny and bad at the social game.  I leave it to the fans to figure out which is which.  Lydia’s got a shot at making it deep if she channels the former, but even if she channels the latter, unless her comedy REALLY bombs, I see her making at least the merge.  She’s lucky that she’s not on the disaster tribe, and that there are other more obvious targets before her.  I have a hard time seeing her winning, but I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t at least make the early merge, and could even go mid-merge if she’s more Cirie than Debbie.  

Rocksroy Bailey (44, Stay-At-Home Dad, Las Vegas, NV, Ika Tribe): No matter how disastrous a tribe may be, there’s always at least one person from it who makes it deep.  Such is the case with Rocksroy here, who is my male pick to win the whole shebang!  On a tribe that’s going to need challenge strength, Rocksroy is clearly their big gun, and likely in no danger early on as a result.  His pet peeve being drivers not using their turn signal also helps endear me to the guy, though I will say that “someone who thinks they know everything” is a bit more concerning game-wise.  The guy is brief in his bio. so there’s not a lot to go on, but enough that you feel like you know him.  What can I say, playing one’s cards close to the chest is a good thing on “Survivor”.  Plus, I feel like the dude is good at compartmentalizing and keeping secrets.  My evidence?  Like I said, this case got spoiled early, and spoilers come with pictures.  The one exception?  Rocksroy.  If the dude is good enough to keep his online presence such a secret there’s no good quality photos of him around, the dude is good enough to keep secrets on “Survivor”.  And once again, even the photo, dude exudes charm, and that charm alone is enough to make him my first winner pick of the season.  

Jenny Kim (43, Creative Director, New York, NY, Vati Tribe): Remember how I said there were some obvious targets should Vati go to Tribal Council?  Yeah, Jenny is definitely the big one here.  Being outspoken and in a leadership role works well in business, but on “Survivor”, particularly on small tribes that might not gel with your leadership style, they only make you a target.  jenny has a good shot if she can quietly lead from the sidelines, but I don’t see someone who describes themselves as “direct” doing very well with that.  Add onto that a concerning pet peeve (“Arrogant people and those with a sense of entitlement.”), along with less-obvious challenge prowess (though by no means a challenge sink), and Jenny becomes the obvious first pick for a boot should she attend an early Tribal.  As she’s not on the likely dominant tribe, I fear her fate is to be another robbed goddess, another pre-merge boot.  

Daniel Strunk (30, Law Clerk, New Haven, CT, Vati Tribe): Ah, our resident nerd archetype for the season, as well as the second person we confirmed to find an idol/advantage based on the season preview.  Daniel early on worms his way into my heart with his love of Legos, and fortunately I think he’ll be around for a while for this love to grow.  No real red flags apart from one of his pet peeves being “people so convinced they’re right they foreclose debate”, though I suppose the show could disguise some oatmeal raisin cookies as chocolate chip cookies to throw him off his game.  He also talked about admiring Supreme Court Justices of vastly different ideologies.  Perhaps a bit of a stretch, but I feel like this might indicate that he’s good at reaching across the aisle and work with pretty much anyone.  Always a useful skill on “Survivor”.  Sadly, the time of nerds being 100% dominant has passed, and so Daniel will not be our winner.  That said, just because nerds often do well and now getting targeted doesn’t mean Daniel can’t match that level of success.  His social acumen, coupled with his idol, to me makes him a mid-to-late merge boot, particularly since there’s often bigger targets than him no matter if he’s in the Tribal phase or the Merge phase.  

Maryanne Oketch (24, Seminary Student, Ajax, Ontario, Canada, Taku Tribe): Seems we’re just getting all the guaranteed idol/advantage finds out of the way here.  Yes, Omar may have REACTED to her find, but Maryanne is the one who actually FINDS the thing on the Taku Tribe.  Maryanne is… Well, the best word I have is “quirky”, but again, a lot of this tribe is quirky.  I’d say she’s in danger early, but she’s on the tribe least likely to lose on paper, and we know she finds something powerful, and I expect her and Omar to leverage that to become the power couple on the tribe.  Unlike Omar, however, I expect Maryanne to leverage her advantage to a win.  Yes, Maryanne is my female pick to win the whole thing.  This might come as a surprise, given her occupation, but again, Shan has made me see that as less of a red flag, and that’s really the only mention of her religion we get from Maryanne, so I think she’ll be able to compartmentalize well.  Granted, her pet peeves have ALL the red flags, and between her and Rocksroy, I’d say she’s my less-comfortable winner pick, but given that she has time to adjust, I think she can probably overcome these issues.  Besides, if Danny McCray can overcome “liars” as a pet peeve last season, Maryanne can overcome “People who don’t listen to me… hypocrites, and people who don’t apologize.”  If she can sleep well, she’ll do fairly well.  It’ll also help is she takes her cues from her previous contestant comparison.  Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) had charm coming out his ears, and I feel like Maryanne might as well.  Plus, she’s a fan of tabletop games.  How can I not root for her?

Zach Wurtenberger (22, Student, St. Louis, MO, Ika Tribe): Oh dear, guess I spoke too soon with Swati.  Look, Zach seems like a nice kid,  Not much to recommend him one way or the other, though I will say his particularly young age (second youngest in the group) is a bit of a mark against, and unlike Lydia, I HAVE seen his comedy.  It’s… Not CRINGE-WORTHY, but not exactly good either.  None of this would really be a death knell, but he’s unfortunately on what’s likely to be the disaster tribe, and thus probably another pre-merge boot.  Sorry, man.  Hope for another “Second Chances” season where you get a better tribe draw.  

Drea Wheeler (35, Fitness Consultant, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Ika Tribe): Rounding out our cast, we have the person who, at first glance, I THOUGHT was going to be my main winner pick for the season.  True, she’s on the likely disaster tribe, but like I said, SOME on the disaster tribe have to make it through, and as Drea is a likely challenge beast, she was not likely to be a target on such a tribe.  Then, as I read into the bio, my hopes were dashed.  I’ve tried to be kinder to the pet peeves this season, and give people the benefit of a doubt where they can overcome them, but when your SOLE one is “Dishonest people”?  Yeah, kind of an issue on “Survivor”.  Granted, she’s still going to be around a while given the Kelley Wentworth (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) comparison, if she can pull it off, and the need for athleticism on her tribe means she’s likely to stick around a while, just not a winner pick anymore.  Still, look for her out no earlier than the mid-merge, probably with an immunity run in their somewhere.  

Well, there we go!  With one major exception, pretty likable cast, and for once, firmer predictions than usual!  Overall I’m very satisfied, though not satisfied enough to sit and wait for the season to start to begin blogging.  Be on the lookout for something old, and something new, before the new season begins March 9th!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.