Tonight, “Survivor” takes on a guest producer. Rare, I know, but it happens. You can usually tell because the episode takes on a distinctive theme. In this case, that theme is “Suffering builds character”, which you may recall was the creed of Calvin’s dad from “Calvin and Hobbes”. Yep, that’s our guest producer, ladies and gentleman. Bring on the rain!
First, though, we have to bring on the pain, as we see how the three from the David tribe on the wrong side of the vote weather things. All are quiet, but Davie probably takes it the best, pulling Christian aside and asking what happened. Christian claims that he and Nick were brought in last minute, hence why Davie was left out. This seems to satisfy Davie, although his hidden immunity idol probably helps with that. Carl is also quiet, but doesn’t really talk to anybody. Instead, he gets emotional about it, stating that Jessica was like a daughter to him. “Emotion” in this case takes the form of a quavering in his voice and a few tears, which might not seem like much, but for a tough guy from Texas, that’s basically curling up into a ball and sobbing. Still, he rallies, and certainly doesn’t do anything to hurt his game.
Before we get to our last outsider, let us check in with the Mason-Dixon alliance. They wisely wait until they’re out of eyesight and earshot before celebrating, and then plotting their next move. As we saw with Christian earlier, they decide to throw Gabby under the bus as a ringleader, which I have to laugh at a little bit. Not that Gabby is blameless in this vote-off, but of the five who voted for Jessica, I’d say she had the LEAST agency in that vote-off. True, she did bring in Christian and Nick, but they were the ones who decided to pull the trigger, and it was Lyrsa and Elizabeth who targeted Jessica in the first place. Still, putting the blame on Gabby is a good move, at least in the short-term. It’s clear that the Mason-Dixon alliance is trying to be the swing vote between the two sides, so making as few enemies as possible can’t be a bad thing for that. That being said, it also means you need to eliminate Gabby before Final Tribal Council, lest she be given credit for moves she didn’t really make. Look at the Final Tribal Council of “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” for your evidence. Ultimately, it was Hannah who convinced Ken to vote off David, but who got the credit for it? Adam. Why? Because he was the one seeming to be making moves against David, so everyone thought he must be behind it. Narrative is important here, people.
Still, the best-laid plans are worthless without good execution, but evidently Mason-Dixon have that covered. We check in with Bi and see that, after initially blaming Davie for no apparent reason, she switches to Gabby. Bi then goes full Abi-Maria (“Survivor Philippines”) and effectively declares Gabby dead to her. More on that in a bit.
We check in with Goliath next, where Johnny Mundo is still trying to convince us that he is not his wrestling persona, and failing miserably due to mentioning his nicknames every five sentences. I kid, I kid. Johnny Mundo actually does a pretty good job here of showing what a good reader he is of the people around him, before using this to give us the same “Natalie is on the outs” confessional we’ve heard a few dozen times over the course of this season already. Instead, let us focus on something different: hermit crabs. Yes, of all things, I want to draw attention to a brief scene of a hermit crab race we see the Goliath tribe running during their down time. As this blog is primarily focussed on strategy, I normally wouldn’t mention something like this. However, it is very worth mentioning from an entertainment perspective. You see, this season has definitely been good so far, but from a strategy perspective, it’s not been that great. Not awful, by any means, but nothing special either. Normally this would bring a season down, but decent strategy can be offset by an influx of charm and character, which is what we get here. Watching the show, it’s easy to forget that these are real people living out their day-to-day, 24 hour lives, needing to meet their every need, including entertainment. It’s just so charming and, for want of a better term, real, that it just endears me to the season. More, please!
For all my snark, there is a method to Johnny Mundo giving us what at this point is the standard Natalie confessional. Johnny Mundo, you see, is one of those who agrees that Natalie might be a good person to have at the end, due to her rubbing people the wrong way. Fair enough, but how do you plan to get her there? The answer is foreshadowed in the next scene, as we see a new bond at Goliath. Mike and Jeremy are bonding over a shared love of the game, enough so that Jeremy shares his backstory: he and his dad didn’t always see eye-to-eye, but Jeremy feels his dad would be proud of where he’s at in life. Sadly, Jeremy’s dad has Alzheimer’s, and is thus not really in a position to notice these things. It’s a sad story, and we’re thankfully spared the “this makes Jeremy a Final Tribal threat” confessional, so we can just take it at surface value.
Johnny Mundo may not want people to think of him as a wrestler, but if the other tribe is bringing it up as a topic of conversation, then I’d say it’s a lost cause. While playing in the sand, thus fulfilling the prophecy from last episode, Gabby and Christian debate the logistics of Slamtown, which is another funny and charming scene. If nothing else, you can say this episode does of good job of building up its characters and getting us to bond with them. Sadly, we must get the low, repeat point of the episode, out of the way instead, as Bi, Nick, and Davie all sit out on the raft during a fishing expedition. Bi again expresses a desire to see Gabby go, which Nick fervently agrees to. Since we’ve seen this all before, let’s take a moment to seriously debate where the Mason-Dixon alliance should go. As with any good debate, there’s positives to both sides. Getting out Bi strengthens the majority you currently have, and ruffles no new feathers. Getting out Gabby keeps the tribe stronger overall, and keeps your status as swing votes more secure. As to which side they should go with, well, it depends. For Nick, there’s no answer but to vote out Gabby. To someone with few allies, playing a swing vote is probably the best move, and getting out Gabby strengthens that. Christian, on the other hand? While Nick is being played up as his ride-or-die currently, he still has an alliance with Gabby as well. Having more allies is always better than having fewer, but this in turns gives Nick more incentive to get Gabby out, thus leaving Christian with him as his main option. It’s an intriguing turn: What happens when two member of an alliance have diametrically opposing interests? No answer is yet given, so we’ll have to wait for a swap to decide.
Back at Goliath, since we need a viable alternative to Natalie going home this episode, we put Jeremy up to bat. Oh, don’t worry, this isn’t the show manufacturing drama out of nowhere. Rest assured, Jeremy will be making plenty of mistakes this time around. First comes the time when he takes a leaf out of the playbook of Garrett Adelstein (“Survivor Cagayan”). In case you’ve forgotten who he is, Garrett is the guy who decided it was a bright idea to FORCE his tribe not to strategize, leading to his eviction as the second player of the season. All this, WHILE HOLDING A HIDDEN IMMUNITY IDOL! Yeah, to say that this is not a good place to draw from is an understatement. To give Jeremy his due, his reason for making this bone-headed move is solid. He sees people pairing off and talking, but not to him. Given that he’s a physical threat on a tribe that can afford to lose a physical player or two and still be good, that’s reason enough to be concerned. I have no quarrel with Jeremy wanting to do something about this. What I do have a problem with is that, rather than take the initiative and pull people over himself, Jeremy instead pulls the tribe together and effectively tells them to knock it off. As Natalie has demonstrated, bossing adults around does not generally go over well. Such is the case here, especially when Jeremy proves himself a hypocrite, and starts talking with individuals anyway, trying to throw Dan under the bus for his idol. Excellent job there, player. Excellent!
Man, these challenges just get worse and worse, don’t they? Now we’re just upsizing individual challenges, with a total of four players (in groups of one and three) completing a ropes course, and then two pulling a sled of puzzle pieces for two to solve. While upsizing a challenge is better than downsizing, it still doesn’t change the fact that this feels like three individual challenges Frankensteined into one. The puzzle is at least complex, being a four-piece pyramid, probably most remembered as being solved by Wendell on “Survivor Ghost Island”, but actually making its first appearance on “Survivor One World”. Yeah, I prefer to remember Wendell too.
Probst taunts the contestants by making sure the reward portion of the challenge (pillows, blankets, and chairs) is thoroughly soaked via showing it off, and we get to set things up. While the challenge itself may be lackluster, the one thing going for it is decent misdirection. True, we’ve heard more specific targets from the David tribe, so they likely lose, but both tribes have a least a shot at losing. However, that good will goes out the window when we see the Goliath tribe strategizing, and Natalie forcing herself onto the puzzle portion. Granted, if you’re going to use Natalie in a challenge, this is where you use her, but the fact that we see only them strategizing guarantees they lose. And while this did not ultimately play a factor (this challenge was pretty neck and neck throughout, and won on the puzzle, expertly solved by Christian and Gabby), I feel like the David tribe may have had an advantage here. Part of the ropes portion of the challenge involved three players untangling from each other. Naturally, the ropes were all made different colors, but even on my HDTV, the colors for the David tribe seemed more distinct than the colors for the Goliath tribe, making them easier to untangle. Not tarnishing David’s victory, though. They earned this, though at what cost?
Bi ran the first leg of this challenge, the solo ropes course, and Probst made a point of describing her as “hobbling back to the mat” afterward. Couple that with repeated cuts to Bi saying her knee was injured, and you’ve got a recipe for medevac. Thankfully, this is just a well-executed fake-out from the producers, as while medical does look at Bi’s knee, both they and she say she’ll be fine, and bandage her knee up.
Following that fake-out, time to see who the Goliath tribe tries to fake us into going rather than Natalie. To no one’s surprise, it’s Jeremy, due to the whole “big threat” thing he mentioned earlier. Surprisingly, rather than Natalie, Angelina is the one pushing for this. She’s really gung-ho about the whole thing, which tells me that she’s got a case of “big-move-itis”. You see, while it is true that the Goliath tribe could lose someone as strong as Jeremy and still be ok challenge-wise (they have no way of knowing a swap is next episode), that doesn’t make it a good idea. I’d tell you why, but I don’t have to: Natalia does it for me. She rightly points out that Natalie feels more on the outs the Jeremy, and is thus more likely to flip. Angelina argues that Jeremy is more of a charmer, and thus could better flip, but I disagree. Yes, Jeremy is charming, but he’s charming in an obvious way. He seems like the type who would fit in well on the Goliath tribe. Conversely, Natalie seems like the odd one out who you would logically expect to flip. Plus, remember that Natalie’s big issue is being to bossy. If she so badly wants to be in charge, where better to find followers than on a tribe supposedly full of followers? Not saying that the David tribe are all followers, but that seems to be what Natalie believes, and I think the David tribe is smart enough to play into that to gain an edge.
Jeremy’s biggest obstacle to staying, though, is Jeremy. In his third boneheaded move of the evening, he had encouraged Natalie to do what she needed to save herself, but also said it was an uphill battle. A bit tactless, but not bad in and of itself. However, when Natalie tries to talk strategy, and asks Jeremy not to be there, Jeremy turns it into an argument that makes everyone involved, but especially himself, look bad. I understand that if you think someone might be talking about you, you shouldn’t let them, but when you make a big deal out of it, you hit a point of diminishing returns on how much trouble you’re saving yourself. Jeremy goes WAY past that point here. Smart thing to do would be to put up a mild protest, then pretend to acquiesce, and listen in from the bushes somewhere. Instead, this argument drags on to commercial break, though I have to give the editors credit for cutting to commercial right when Natalie talks about cutting things off.
Then we come to Tribal Council. To jump ahead to my thoughts a bit, I think this is one situation where we were duped. This was made out to be a “Live” Tribal Council, where the decision was up in the air, and what happened at Tribal decided the outcome. For reasons I’ll get into shortly, I believe everyone knew the decision, and was playing up the discussion for the cameras. That said, if you were to tell me that Natalie was saved by her performance at Tribal Council alone, I would believe it. Seriously, this is some top-tier performing here! Gone is bossy, seemingly uncaring Natalie. Instead she’s calm, logical, and is open to criticism, even putting up what she says she will and taking Dan’s point about “The delivery of the message, not just the content” to heart. Compared to what we see Jeremy do (oh, we’ll get to him in a moment), she comes off as the much more logical choice to keep, despite what I said earlier in the blog. Seriously, I am agape. This is top-level play right here, and it came out of one on the people I would least expect from what we’ve seen so far.
Jeremy’s performance is why I say I think everyone knew the outcome of this Tribal Council beforehand. Natalie should have been the obvious target. It should have been easy. When someone is that annoying, you just gently remind people of what’s happened, and let that person self-destruct to prove your point. What Jeremy does here, going on a full-on, unprovoked attack on Natalie and her game is the work of someone trying desperately to save themselves. Jeremy is enough of a fan that I’m sure he knows this, and thus is only doing this because he knows it is his only chance. Unsurprisingly, it does not work. On a tribe looking for order, whatever the first nine days may have shown, tonight Jeremy showed chaos, and Natalie order. If Jeremy can take some solace he has two rare achievements to his name: He is both a male inductee and a pre-merge inductee into the Order of Sue Hawkabies, each a rare achievement.
I’ve got mixed feelings about Jeremy leaving. He definitely earned it this episode, but I think he was a more interesting and varied character than Natalie. The story about his dad really got to me, and while Natalie is a bigger character from an entertainment perspective, Jeremy had more facets to him, and I would have like to see those develop. To Natalie’s credit, though, she has a lot of class when voting for Jeremy. Complimenting his skin? Love it.
While not top-tier material yet, this season is doing a good job so far. True, a lot of the mystery was gone tonight, but it makes up for it in the characters. Not only is this season doing a good job developing a variety of people, but it does a good job making us care about them; no easy feat. I think it comes back to what I was saying about the hermit crab race earlier: We see them as people, which develops them as characters, which makes this season greater.
Of course, Natalie’s Tribal Council performance also goes a long way there, and as you can probably guess, that means it’s once again time for…
TOP 5 AND BOTTOM 5!
As you’d expect, we’ll be talking about Tribal Council performances. Excluding Final Tribal Council performances (those get their own list someday), what feats of arguing and theatre are the most memorable and most effective? Conversely, which ones backfire the most? Success and failure is no guarantee for either list, though they help. With those very minimal ground rules out of the way, let’s get started with:
TOP 5
5. Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”): Much though I hate to give him any credit, it takes a lot to hide an idol ace up your sleeve, and if there’s one thing Russell IS good at (or at least was in his first two appearances), it was finding and utilizing idols correctly. Not perfectly, you understand, but good in an above-average way. His crowning achievement was the second post-merge vote of “Survivor Samoa”, where he kept it so perfectly hidden that he attracted votes to himself. Plus, we got his iconic “I ain’t finished playing just yet.” quote here, and to a lesser extent, “Keep hope alive”. Not as flashy as Parvati’s similar move on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, yet all the more iconic for it.
4. Malcolm Freberg (“Survivor Caramoan”): Yeah, you all knew this was coming. The guy who basically created a “Live” Tribal Council by making sure he and his allies were immune had to make the list for the chaos he caused alone. Malcolm loses some points because in the long-term, his move wasn’t successful, but even so, it did change the course of that vote, and was flashy enough to get a song made out of it, so it definitely earns a spot on this list.
3. Natalie Cole (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”): Seriously, if you want an example of keeping cool under pressure, this is it. Natalie dominated this Tribal Council by showing just WHY she could be a better tribunate than her competition, but without going over the top. True, this list has favored the flashy, but the finesse of this performance is just too good not to award.
2. Vytas Baskauskas (“Survivor Blood vs. Water”): Someone down in numbers on a swap tribe needs to have a damn good performance in order to make it through to the merge, and Vytas does just that with his “And we will be strong” performance. Natalie had finesse, but even so, she had to capitalize on an existing argument. Vytas used a natural breakdown of Laura Boneham to his expert advantage, thus being kept around until the merge. And all while appearing calm and collected, never once getting sucked into the argument. Well played, good sir.
1. Gary Hogeboom (“Survivor Guatemala”): What’s better than a performance that blindsides the players? A performance that blindsides the audience. Granted, this is partly due to editing, but Gary pulled off the blindside idol play in a textbook perfect manner here. Even if we had seen him find the idol, nothing in his demeanor would suggest he would play it. I mean, we’d probably FIGURE he would play it, since he would go home otherwise, but still, keeping a secret that big that under wraps? Masterful. Plus, “Survivor Guatemala” deserves more respect, and this is one area where it definitely earns it.
Honorable Mention: Stacy Kimball (“Survivor Fiji”): This is an odd one, as it’s a move I’ve yet to acknowledge, and really need to. Stacy was the first person to truly pioneer the idea of “Place votes on the person not likely to have an idol played on them”, which resulted in Edgardo’s exit, and is a move still used to this day. Stacy and the rest of her alliance do a great job of hiding the target here, hence the shocked looks on the faces of the Four Horsemen. Unfortunately, this one had camp strategizing as a big factor, and no theatrics at Tribal Council. True, that was kind of the point, but it still technically bars the move from the list proper, hence only being an honorable mention.
BOTTOM 5
5. Jennifer Lanzetti (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”): Ah, Jennifer and her iconic bird pose. She wasn’t the first to stand up at Tribal Council, but she was the first to do it at a Tribal Council other than the final one. Not sure that it alone was what doomed her, but it didn’t help. Jennifer’s big failing here was really just in being too open about her plans and scheming. Easy enough to do, but no matter what, she just kept digging herself deeper and deeper, flip-flopping on stories and giving into pure, emotional protests, which led to a rightful exit. Still not as much of a mess as we’ll be seeing, though.
4. Ami Cusack (“Survivor Micronesia”): Similar to Jennifer, though dialed up to eleven. Ami also had an emotional breakdown at an insurmountable wall that exposed her scheming. Ami’s breakdown was bigger, which makes it in a way more entertaining, but also sadder, especially since we knew Ami better as a strategist than we did Jennifer. That said, because this breakdown seemed bigger, Ami gets the higher spot on this list. However understandable, it was a shame to see a great strategist sink to this level of argument.
3. John Cochran (“Survivor South Pacific”): This one is more anecdotal than evidence based, but even given what we saw in the episode, Cochran really did himself no favors at this Tribal Council. Like Jeremy, he kept talking and protesting where he really didn’t seem to need to. Unlike Jeremy, Cochran ACTUALLY didn’t need to, and if Dalton Ross is to be believed, nearly cost himself the game right there from overscheming. Thankfully he didn’t, but such a near miss definitely earns a spot on this list.
2. Gervase Peterson (“Survivor Blood vs. Water”): Cochran’s move nearly cost him the game, but you could argue Gervase here did more direct damage. When someone at Tribal Council is playing for your ally, you DON’T want to antagonize them and encourage them to just go for it. That’s what Gervase did here, and it led to the first rock draw in 23 seasons. Not a good look, and definitely not a good Tribal Council performance.
1. Jeff Varner (“Survivor Game Changers”): You all knew this was coming. I know Varner was desperate, but this was a depraved, desperate move that had (thankfully only) the potential to ruin someone’s life, all for a game he wasn’t likely to win anyway. Varner felt like scum afterward, and well he should, given the lengths he went to. But even taking out the moral perspective here for a moment, it was bad game wise. If people weren’t planning to vote for you before, they sure are now! Look at the tongue-lashing he got from his tribe. Well-deserved, I say. If Probst has you voted out verbally, you know you’ve royally screwed up your game with a single performance.
Honorable Mention: Hali Ford (“Survivor Game Changers”): It didn’t really impact things one way or the other, but Hali’s “I didn’t consent” bit gets such a chuckle out of me that I had to include it somewhere. Given that it didn’t help, but also didn’t make much difference in the outcome of things, this seemed the best spot for it.
Well, despite some of my criticisms, we’re three for three on good episodes so far this season. We’ll see if that holds, though, as I feel the swap is a bit too early this time around.
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 