Come on in, guys! And welcome back to “Survivor What-Ifs”, where we make one little change in a given season of “Survivor”, to see how it impacts the rest of “Survivor” history. And oh boy, what a season we have to consider today. “Survivor Samoa” is arguably the most divisive season of the show, largely due to the fact that it could be more aptly titled “The Russell Hantz Show”. “Survivor” is no stranger to having a “big character” of the season. One could argue that Rupert took on a similar role for “Survivor Pearl Islands”, or Boston Rob in “Survivor Redemption Island” if we look to the future at this point.
Samoa is a bit special, though, in that Russell takes up SO much screen time, he effectively pushes out anyone else who might want character bits or a story arc. To put it in perspective, Russell has somewhere in the ballpark of four times the number of confessionals OF THE WINNER! Yeah, dude was a bit of a screen hog, or just made into one by the editors. Hence, the division. If you, like a lot of the audience then and now, enjoyed Russell’s character on the show, having a season devoted to him was an interesting diversion, making for a distinctive season. If you, like me, found Russell to be incredibly flawed as a player, and found that his schtick got old after about one episode, this season really has nothing else for you, and was at best a chore to get through. So, let’s see if we can change that, shall we? Can we make one little change that can make this season more palatable to everyone, Russell fans and Russell haters alike?
Before we get into that, though, a couple of bits of business. First, to give credit where credit is due, this particular idea for a “What-If?” did not come from me. Instead, the inspiration came from YouTube channel “Once Upon An Island”, which does “Survivor”-related videos. Recently, they did a history of people who got medically evacuated off the show, and if you remember “Survivor Samoa”, you can already see where this is going. Still, since I wouldn’t have thought of this were it not for the video, I feel I need to acknowledge it here. Moreover, though, be aware that this blog will contain SPOILERS, both for this season and future seasons, since we need to be reminded of our baseline before we talk about how a change would work. Without further ado, though, let us change history.
THE IMPACT
As you may have guessed from the lead-in, our change today concerns Russell. No, not Russell Hantz, the OTHER Russell of this season, one Russell Swan. Arguably the only character to actually get some note on the show other than the eponymous Hantz, Russell Swan was the leader of Galu, though perhaps most famous for his medical evacuation late in the pre-merge. Possibly the most dramatic in the history of the show, Russell Swan worked himself through the rain to keep the camp orderly, but then just could not handle the challenge in this episode, leading to his scary collapse in the middle of doing a maze. As a side note, this episode has a vivid personal memory for me. I was in High School at the time, and well-known as the “Survivor” guy. A girl in my theatre department had a family that was majorly into “Survivor”, but she herself had never watched it. She was finally convinced to give it a try… In the episode where Russell Swan nearly dies. Understandably, she was freaked out, and never watched the show again, for which I cannot blame her.
Now, I initially would not have thought of a possible change for this scenario. The only thing I could see being done to avoid it would be for Russell to not work in the rain, a change to his personality so drastic that it would violate my own rules for what makes an acceptable change to talk about. The video mentioned above, however, reminded me of another, more plausible change. I did not remember that Galu tried to get Russell to sit out, only for him to say that he was good to go, and they dropped the subject. This is possibly because I try my hardest to forget that “Survivor Samoa” exists on a regular basis.
But what if Galu didn’t drop the subject? What if they insisted that they could tell Russell wasn’t doing well, and insist that he sit out such a low-stakes challenge. Some may disagree, given his portrayal on “Survivor Philippines”, but I think Russell caves here. The man could be stubborn, and could have a “my way or the highway” attitude, but he could back down in the face of a majority. You’ll note that he had gone along with the plan to vote out Yasmin a few episodes before, in spite of the fact that he didn’t agree with the decision. So the man clearly CAN give in to the will of his tribe. In this timeline, the will of his tribe is that he sit out, and so he does.
Going on with how it changes this episode, the winner of this challenge really is a moot point, since it was set to be a double Tribal Council prior to Russell’s collapse. If you must know, though, I would guess that Foa Foa wins without Russell playing in the challenge. With the possible exception of Dave Ball, none of the sit-outs would have made much of a difference, and Foa Foa did have a slight lead in the challenge even in our timeline. With no medical evacuation, the Double Tribal Council takes place as planned. As in our timeline, Foa Foa votes out Liz Kim, but Galu is a bit trickier, since in our timeline, we don’t get a lot of their internal tribe dynamics, due to only going to Tribal Council once. That said, I think the best bet is that Shambo gets voted out at this juncture, if Tribal Council goes forward. The tribe wasn’t overly fond of her already, she had already been to the Foa Foa camp and developed bonds there a couple of times at this point, plus she was the only person not to vote for Yasmin at Galu’s first Tribal Council.
THE FALLOUT
So what happens now? In the short term, Russell Swan gets better. One major factor in his evacuation in our timeline was the fact that there were several straight days of bad weather in a row. After the episode in our timeline where Russell collapses, the weather improves, thus allowing the rest of Galu to pick up the slack and let Russell get some rest. So, in this timeline, Mike Borassi is the only medical casualty of “Survivor Samoa”. Predicting the merge, however, is much tricker, largely due to an internal production decision that, as far as I know, we will never know the truth about. You see, in our timeline, we had one more immunity challenge pre-merge. However, it’s not clear if this decision was made due to the medical evacuation canceling the planned Double Tribal Council, or if this was always in the cards, and the merge was planned for the Final 11 instead of the Final 12. Honestly, either one seems plausible to me, and there’s evidence for both options (the number of days played at this point make it seem like there was always another immunity challenge planned, but the odd number of players and start of the jury at Final 12 indicate a merge in the same episode).
Ultimately, though, it probably doesn’t matter. Even in the best-case scenario for Foa Foa, where the merge happens immediately after the Double Tribal Council, they’re still down 8-4. Similar to out timeline, but now Russell Swan, rather than Shambo, is in the merge. And that, dear readers, makes all the difference.
The absence of Shambo, and the presence of Russell Swan, basically kills what little chance Foa Foa has of repeating the comeback they make in our timeline in this timeline. There’s three major factors that lead to this conclusion. Firstly, with no Shambo at the merge, there’s also no Shambo to flip to Foa Foa as soon as it hits. Yes, even with Shamboo’s flip, Foa Foa was still down 7-5, but clever idol plays and a narrower majority put Galu in much more peril than they are in this timeline. Second, there’s Russell Swan as a uniting factor. The man has his flaws as a “leader”, there’s no doubt about it, but when it came to bringing the tribe together against a common enemy, the man knew how to do his job. Look at how they devolved into infighting after his evacuation in our timeline. A united Galu front, rather than a fractured one as we saw in our timeline, is hard to overcome. It’s true that hidden immunity idols are a factor here, and for all of Russell Hantz’s many, MANY flaws in his game, the man is good at finding hidden immunity idols, which could give Foa Foa more of an edge. That said, this feels like the sort of trick that only works once. Maybe at the merge, Russell out-predicts Galu, and sends one of them home. Galu doesn’t let that happen again, and pulls the “Edgardo Maneuver” from “Survivor Fiji”, voting for a member of Foa Foa no one expects, and Foa Foa is screwed once again.
Really, though, the big factor is that this time, the votes are out of their system. It’s an interesting pattern on “Survivor”, but for whatever reason, tribes that only attend one or fewer Tribal Councils tend to vote for one of their own immediately after the merge. From Koror on “Survivor Palau” to Bayon on “Survivor Cambodia”, if you largely avoid Tribal Council pre-merge, you’re more than likely going to turn on one of your own come the merge. Granted, this pattern is more prevalent in seasons with only two tribes, but as “Survivor Samoa” is one such season, the point stands. Even in our timeline, despite losing two members, Galu only went to one Tribal Council, and they turned on each other at the merge. The reasons for this pattern are varied, but I hypothesize that people get irritating, and all you think about is voting them off to the point where you jump the gun once you have the opportunity. Galu going to just ONE MORE Tribal Council helps clear up those internal divisions, and unite the tribe. From there it’s just a numbers game. Barring someone from Foa Foa going on an immunity streak a la Brett in our timeline, or them playing their hidden immunity idols PERFECTLY, someone from Galu wins in this timeline. The factors are too many to say who it would be with any degree of confidence, but that the winner is an original Galu, I can say with confidence.
THE LEGACY
A Galu victory naturally changes the way the entire season of “Survivor Samoa” is edited. Don’t misunderstand, Russell Hantz is still a big name, if only for his aptitude and finding hidden immunity idols without clues, before such things were common. But without leading his tribe back from the brink to victory, Russell isn’t the only game in town. He has to share screen time with a bunch of the Galus, so they get more character development. A necessary change, as this season is untimely just a boring Pagonging in this timeline.
Surprisingly, the season that probably changes the LEAST as a result of this new timeline is “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”. Russell Hantz, despite not being as legendary in this timeline, still revolutionized the finding of idols, and had already talked about “Russell Seeds” and sabotaging his tribe before our timeline change. We in our timeline might be inclined to say they bring back Russell Swan on the Heroes Tribe, since he saved Galu from collapsing. However, remember that we only know that because of OUR timeline. In this timeline, the destruction of Foa Foa seems inevitable, and while Russell is well-regarded, particularly in comparison to Mick on Foa Foa, he’s not legendary enough for such a season. I’m sure he comes back at some point, just probably more in the area of a “Survivor Game Changers” than “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”. The only possible change is that Russell Hantz is MAYBE more humble in this timeline with the knowledge that he definitively did NOT win his season, but I doubt it. With the rivalry between himself and Boston Rob still intact, “Survivor Redemption Island” remains unchanged, along with the “Russell-proofing” of idols, and Russell’s impact on “Survivor” History as a whole.
The cast makeups of some future seasons are hard to determine without knowing who the winner is, though I’d imagine we get more returnees from Samoa in general due to it no longer just being “The Russell Hantz Show”. Some characters on Galu, like Erik and Dave, get more screen time, and I could see them or another member of Galu coming back on something like a “Survivor Game Changers”, or even “Survivor Caramoan”. Monica, however, probably fares worse than she does in our timeline. Without even the flimsy “She put fear into Russell Hantz” justification that she got in our timeline, I doubt Monica is up for “Survivor Cambodia”, or if she is, she’s not voted in. Now, you might be inclined to replace her with another young, attractive woman from the show. Someone like Baylor from “Survivor San Juan del Sur” could take her place. However, I’ll go out on a limb and say that T-Bird from “Survivor Africa” gets on instead. Yes, T-Bird is a completely different archetype, and was in the vote in our timeline and still lost, but so help me, I want T-Bird to return, and I’m still salty she didn’t win the vote in our timeline. Just let me have this, ok?
Of course, no medical evacuation for Russell Swan makes him ineligible to return on “Survivor Philippines”, meaning he’s replaced with their original plan… *shudder* Colton Cumbie of “Survivor One World”. Yeah, I don’t even have to go into the details of how that would change the season to know it’s a change for the worse.
“Survivor Winners at War” is really the only other major returnee season to discuss here, and again, without knowing the winner, we can’t really say if they’d be on or not. If the winner was one of the bigger characters of Samoa, like the aforementioned Dave or Erik, yeah, they probably get on. If it’s someone less exciting, like John Fincher or Kelly Sharbaugh, perhaps not. As to whether a John Fincher win prevents him and Parvati Shallow from marrying, there’s just no way to know.
So, once again, to the ultimate question: Does this change make the season better? Ehh… If I’m being objective, it really doesn’t. Even as someone who loathes “Survivor Samoa”, I have to admit that it’s memorable. Lopsided in the edit, and centered around an annoying egomaniac whose voice has become like sandpaper in my brain, yes, but memorable. But as mentioned earlier, without the Foa Foa turnaround, the season is ultimately a predictable Pagonging by the tribe that was obviously going to dominate, with only a few interesting characters to be found. In the end, I suppose it’s better to be polarizing than to be forgettable, and in that sense, yes, this change is a change for the worse. Sorry, Russell Swan!
And that about covers the major changes that result from Russell Swan not being medically evacuated. Of course, with 20 years of “Survivor” History to go through, there’s a lot more changes to discuss, and I want to hear what you want discussed! Leave a comment on this blog, or wherever it’s posted, of what timeline changes you’d like to see me discuss next! To help, the guidelines for what sorts of changes I’m willing to examine are below:
1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season. This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way. Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical. As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog. I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style. Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment. It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…
2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about. Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season. Would it ever happen? No. So there’s no point in writing about it.
3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way. Simply changing up the boot order is not enough. Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both. As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9. I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory. Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched. Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.
In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are two what I call “Flexible Guidelines”. As the name would imply, these rules can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are two things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:
4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”. From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good. The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of. I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip. Nothing knocking them, of course. I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them. So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.
5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above. I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”. He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add. I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out. Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.
Hope everyone is doing well, and getting vaccinated!
-Matt
idolspeculation 
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