Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Cast Assessment

Ask and ye shall receive!  I complain about the lack of an official cast reveal; a few days later we get said official cast reveal.  Now, to complain about the lack of an intro, and the 26 day format being made permanent…

My dear readers, it is my profound pleasure to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  With the cast and tribe divisions now officially announced, it’s time once again for me to talk about my thoughts on them based on very little information, so that people can laugh about how wrong my takes are down the line.  Yes, even after over a decade of blogging, I still occasionally say such crazy things as “I think Katrina Radke will win the season!”

There’s not a lot of business to take care of for this one.  It will be a pretty standard cast assessment blog, at least by my standards.  That said, my longtime readers will know that I usually put a lot of emphasis on one’s pet peeves as an indicator of how they’ll do.  Generally, if it’s something you’re all but guaranteed to encounter out there (liars, for example), I’m less jazzed on your chances.  I won’t be doing that nearly as much this season.  Not because I’ve come to believe my methodology is flawed.  Far from it!  I won’t bring it up much because almost EVERYONE on this cast has a pet peeve that makes me perceive their chances negatively.  Thus, rather than being an exception, having a bad pet peeve is now the NORM.  As such, it is pointless to mention it when it happens, and I will instead be bringing up the few people who DON’T have a chances-tanking pet peeve when relevant, and also those who have concerning, but not guaranteed to be there, pet peeves.  Just wanted to make it clear why I was doing what I was doing.  The implications… will be discussed later.  For now, let’s talk about our cast, in no particular order!

Nneka Ejere (43, Phramacist, Weatherford, TX, Vesi Tribe): Confession time: I did a double-take when I first saw Nneka’s age in her bio.  Based on her photo, which I saw first, I would have easily lopped a good 15 years AT LEAST off her actual age.  I bring this up, partly to make fun of my own biases, but also to explain why I’m not immediately out on what the show considers to be an “older woman”, which is usually a safe bet in these sorts of predictive blogs.  If she has the physical strength and stamina to back up her looks, age should not be a major issue for her.  The more minor third reason is that Nneka doesn’t give us a whole lot else to work with.  Her pet peeves, while concerning, are no more so than the vast majority of the rest of the cast’s.  Her comparing herself to Cirie I would say is an issue, but more so due Cirie being such a high bar than any sort of failing on Nneka’s part.  Combine what seems like a very average player with the tribe least likely to go to Tribal Council pre-merge, and you’ve got a recipe for a good mid-merge boot.  She MIGHT be in trouble if she costs her tribe a challenge and they go to a pre-merge Tribal Council, but I find that unlikely.  Otherwise she’ll be a solid, but unremarkable, player who will have a good run in the game.  

Mike “Gabler” Gabler (52, Heart Valve Specialist, Meridian, ID, Baka Tribe): Here we have the guy who stood out to the majority of the fandom from the season preview, and understandably so.  A good, recognizable silhouette or article of clothing works wonders, especially in the short time of a preview.  Between his distinctive beard and cap, Gabler has that in spades.  He also stands out as the oldest player this season, and again, it would be easy to write him off as an easy early boot based on that alone.  I, however, am a bit more bullish on Gabler’s chances.  Granted, I can see his tribe going to Tribal Council at least an average amount early on, and they are all significantly younger than he is, so Gabler could seem to be in trouble.  What intrigues me, though is the combination of his location and his occupation.  Gabler is clearly a country boy.  Grew up in Texas, now lives in Iowa.  Even on “Survivor”, you can see the stereotypes.  Think Colby Donaldson or Ben Driebergen.  That’s the sort of person you think of as coming from those places, and certainly Gabler LOOKS the part.  Yet, the occupation that is effectively “doctor” often conjures up completely opposite images than the stereotypes just mentioned.  This means for me that A) Gabler is smarter than he looks and B) he can move comfortably in multiple social worlds.  This is why I think his age won’t be as big an issue for him, and even if his tribe loses some, I can see him making the merge.  I don’t see him making much beyond that, since people will realize how threatening he is given that he’s still around, but an early boot?  I personally doubt it.  

Noelle Lambert (25, U.S. Paralympian, Manchester, NH, Vesi Tribe): The first thing most anyone is going to notice about Noelle is that she is an amputee; her left leg now being a prosthesis.  This ground is, if you’ll pardon the pun, well-tread on the show by now, with the likes of Chad Crittenden on “Survivor Vanuatu”, and Kelly Bruno on “Survivor Nicaragua”.  I’d lean toward Noelle emulating more of the former than the latter in terms of game.  Partly this is due to her being on the tribe unlikely to attend Tribal Council pre-merge, but I don’t see her having any major conflict with her tribemates either.  All fairly athletic, on the younger side, and fairly easygoing.  Noelle should be simpatico in that regard.  Her prosthetic leg, unfortunately, is what dooms her chances in the long-run.  It’s rarely said out loud, lest someone look like a jerk, but people with a visible (for want of a better term) disability are a target, lest they get the dreaded “sympathy vote” in the end.  Noelle, while a perfectly fine player, does not seem skilled enough to overcome this, and thus will be out in the early-to-mid-merge due to being perceived as a threat in the end.  

Owen Knight (30, College Admissions Director, New Orleans, LA, Baka Tribe): Jumping ahead a bit in our discussion, one thing about this cast that separates it from most recent casts is less of the “nerd” archetype, at least overtly.  There are some “closeted nerds”, again for want of a better term, but ones who wear their nerd card proudly on their sleeve are thin on the ground.  Overall I think this is a good thing.  Even as a nerd myself, it’s nice to have more variety in the archetypes we see.  Owen is the exception to this, and it’s part of why I like the guy.  He’s also one of the first to have pet peeves that AREN’T a deal-breaker for his chances on an average season.  All right, “Entitled people” is a bit concerning, but 4-way stop signs are scare on the ground on an undeveloped island in Fiji, and thereby finding people who don’t know what to do at them will be difficult.  Unfortunately for Owen, much as I like his personality, I don’t have a ton of hope for his game chances.  He does seem to be physically fit enough to avoid a super-early target, but the lack of other overt nerds makes him stand out, and given how they’re generally perceived in this day and age of the metagame, makes him a threat.  I’d mark him as a late-pre-merge boot, probably the last one right before we merge.  It’s possible he squeaks by to the early merge, but not much beyond that.  He’s just too visible and too threatening to make it farther.  

Justine Brennan (29, Cyber Security Sales, Marina del Rey, CA, Vesi Tribe): Justine should be incredibly thankful that she is on the tribe she’s on, as there’s not much else to recommend her.  People who appear to be very “worldly” in the sense of living a fairly “polished” lifestyle usually don’t do well in my estimation, just due to not handling the environment well.  Justine is the one of the cast who most screams this, but fortunately for her, she’s likely not going to Tribal Council pre-merge.  Unlike what this archetype usually implies, she seems at least decently fit enough to not be a challenge sink, so she won’t be the factor that could cost them in an outside scenario.  Once she’s at the merge, which I don’t see her having SPECTACULAR game skills, she seems at least competent enough to not screw herself over, plus at that point it’s usually the threats who are targetted.  As such, expect Justine to be a mid-to-late merge boot, possibly even making it to the finale, though with zero chance of winning at that point.  

Cody Assenmacher (35, Elevator Sales, Honolulu, HI, Vesi Tribe): The country boy transplanted to island life (Cody is originally from Iowa), Cody is our first contestant to be from Hawaii at the time of filming (Jonas Otsuji of “Survivor One World” was originally from Hawaii, but listed as Lehi, Utah in his bio), and the second so far to share a name with a prominent “Total Drama Island” contestant.  Sadly, that’s about the most interesting thing I have to say about him.  As a player, Cody is… Fine.  He’s fine.  Just fine.  Likable, physically fit, inoffensive.  Perfectly fine guy, but just does not stand out as a player or a character.  Probably be a solid player, but uninspiring.  I can see him leading his tribe, due to being a good consensus pick, but this is why he won’t go father than the mid-merge.  Again, too big a threat to keep around, but a perfectly serviceable, if uninspiring, player otherwise.  Though I will say comparing himself to Malcolm does show good self-knowledge of his play style, at least.  

Morriah Young (28, Teacher, Philadelphia, PA, Baka Tribe): You probably remember Morriah from the season preview as “The lady with the rainbow hair”.  Much like her hair, Morriah definitely stands out as a character.  Very bubbly and energetic, Morriah is very much of the social-network-savvy generation that “Survivor” is loving lately.  She opened a “Selfie Museum” for goodness’ sake!  Sadly, much like a firework, Morriah will be a bright flash, but flare out fairly early.  Morriah’s trouble is that prowess with social media does not translate to social skills.  Not that her social skills are bad, but there’s no connection between her implied strengths and the strengths needed in the game.  Morriah seems more worldly than a lot of the other players this season, and not the most fit (though hardly unfit), which could tank her chances.  I will give credit that James Clement (“Survivor China”) is an unusual comparison in this day and age of “Survivor”, but it also supports my thesis of “Great character, not as good at the game as they need to be”.  I don’t see her being the ABSOLUTE first out, but especially if she costs her tribe a challenge, she’s out pre-merge.  Good candidate for a second chance season, though.  

Sami Layadi (19, Pet Cremator, Las Vegas, NV, Baka Tribe): Looks like I did the “Top 5 and Bottom 5 Occupations” too early.  “Pet Cremator” should definitely be on the list.  Aside from the interesting occupation Sami, once again, doesn’t have a whole lot to make him stand out.  Perfectly nice young guy, seems like he’ll have decent gamesmanship, clearly physically fit.  Just not anything to really recommend him.  His age is really the major concern I would have (apart from the general pet peeve issue, of course), since we’ve seen that teenagers, generally, just don’t have the maturity and life experience needed to do super well.  The occasional exception (Julia Sokolowski of “Survivor Kaoh Rong” and Michael Yerger of “Survivor Ghost Island”) notwithstanding, this is a demographic that just doesn’t have good track record, and I don’t see Sami being enough of a stand-out to truly buck that trend.  I do think he makes the merge, as there are other people with bigger targets on his tribe during the pre-merge phase, but he’s going to mess up somehow, due to his age alone, and thus we have another early-to-mid merge boot.  

Karla Cruz Godoy (28, Educational Project Manager, Newark, DE, Coco Tribe): The “Tattooed lady in blue” as I described her from the season preview, and our first representative from the third tribe in the order this list is being done.  Karla was an early favorite of mine based solely on the preview, and I’m pleased to say her bio only makes me like her more.  She talks a lot about her family’s immigration and tough life growing up, which could turn people off, but I find to be a breath of fresh air on a cast that’s been fairly bland so far overall.  She stands out visually and in her stance on life, but not in a way that seems likely to be obnoxious or annoying to her fellow players.  She’s even got the least-problematic pet peeves so far!  True, “Pessimism” is a bit of a concern, but less guaranteed to come up than other’s peeves so far, and otherwise inoffensive in that area.  About the worst that I can say for her is that she has an irritating grammatical redundancy in her bio with “…became teenage parents at the age of 16…”.  I suppose I could offer the same criticism as Nneka, since Karla also lists Cirie as the player she’s most similar too, but again, it’s a question of setting a high bar for yourself rather than being an actively bad thing for your game.  So, is Karla one of my winner picks?  Sadly no.  It’s tough to talk about Karla’s placement, since it largely depends on the other members of her tribe, and she’s the first member of her tribe to come up on this blog.  From my perspective, her tribe will very much be a “bro-down”, more so than any other tribe here, but also has the most challenge sinks.  Karla is not exactly unfit, but she’s not a challenge beast like a lot of others on this cast.  She’s likely going to be more “in” with the dominant alliance on her tribe than the other women, but is also on the tribe I would say is most likely to lose a lot of challenges.  If they can break about even with Baka, Karla’s game skills probably take her to the mid-to-late merge, but if she costs the tribe a challenge, or they lose a lot in general, expect her to be out pre-merge.  Either way, expect her to be fun.  

Ryan Medrano (25, Warehouse Associate, El Paso, TX, Coco Tribe): Speaking of the bros, this guy is so into the physical part of the game that he lists Rupert as the guy he’s most like.  Not exactly a good outlook for the game in general, but for the tribe he’s on, I think he’ll do all right.  Not going to lead an alliance, but I expect him to get into the majority in the pre-merge pretty easily.  He won’t be the biggest threat come the merge, but like Rupert on most seasons, he’s out somewhere in the mid-to-late merge, since a physical player like him is always something of a threat.  Yet another player who’s generally perfectly nice, and will coast on that a good way, but just not that interesting or with the skills to overcome the few red flags he has.  

Lindsay Carmine (42, Pediatric Nurse, Downington, PA, Coco Tribe): Our third “older person” on this season.  Despite being the youngest of those three, Lindsay does not have something that can counteract the target this puts on her, unlike the other two.  No beating around the bush here: Lindsay is my pick for first boot of the season.  About the best that can be said for her is that none of her pet peeves are particularly concerning.  Cutting in line, smacking gum, and playing games on one’s phone when talking to others are not things that will be in much supply on the island.  But that “older person” target is tough to overcome, and combine this with Lindsay’s tribe not being that physically strong in general, and I look to her to be gone super early.  She’s on a tribe that doesn’t seem like a good natural mesh for her personality, and so will need time to bond to have any chance.  Time she sadly doesn’t have, if my read of relative tribe strength is accurate.  It’s unfortunate for her, since she seems perfectly nice, and again, not bad at the game by a stretch.  But you need better than “ok” to beat the “older player” target on a tribe like this, and time Lindsay does not have.  

Jeanine Zheng (24, UX Designer, San Francisco, CA, Baka Tribe): Once again, another “Wordly player” without the protection of a challenge-dominant tribe.  Jeanine pays more lip service to being good in the outdoors than the likes of Morriah, but I’m overall not seeing it.  She’s the generic attractive woman who compares herself to Kim Spradlin, with not a lot else going on.  Add onto that a described “introvert”, and a tribe that will probably lose a few challenges, and Jeanine is another textbook pre-merge boot.  

Jesse Lopez (30, Political Science PhD., Durham, NC, Vesi Tribe): On a more positive note, here we have my first pick to win the whole thing.  If you were hold me down and force me to only pick one person to do well on the season, I would go with Jesse, and not just because he’s on the tribe that I see as most likely to dominate.  The dude has something the best winners have: A non-threatening perception that hides a cutthroat mind.  Looking at him, as he says, you don’t see a scholar.  Dude seems tough, yet easygoing enough to not get on people’s nerves.  Yet, he studied political science, arguably one of the best majors for understanding the game of “Survivor”, and enjoys playing chess with his son.  Both wholesome, and good practice!  Dude is a threat, a stealth leader most won’t see coming.  His tribe may be a target some the merge, but I don’t see him as the one being targeted.  If he influences a few votes from the shadows, he very likely puts himself in a position to win the whole thing, and the game will be all the better for it.  

Cassidy Clark (26, Designer, Austin, TX, Coco Tribe): Hoo boy.  Starting out, Cassidy seemed all right.  Yeah, she was not on the best tribe for her, but she seemed easygoing enough to fit with the guys and seemed adaptable.  With some game savvy, though she might be able to worm her way in ahead of Karla.  Then I got to reading her pet peeves.  They’re bad.  GOOD LORD, they’re bad.  Even by the standards of THIS CAST, they’re bad.  “Narrow-Minded, Judgmental People” is bad on it’s own, but ultimately a run-of-the-mill red flag.  “People who have no reverence for Mother Nature and all her beautiful beings!” is a whole other level of “woah”.  You remember Courtney Marit from “Survivor Exile Island”?  Remember how awkward and cringey she was talking about nature?  How it alienated her from a bunch of her tribe?  Guess what, she gets a second shot now!  Cassidy was always going to have an uphill battle with her starting tribe being likely to lose, and the core alliance unlikely to include her, but this just really puts the kibosh on her being anything other than a pre-merge boot.  Her age JUST saves her from being the first boot, but as soon as they go a second time?  Cassidy is toast.  

James Jones (37, Event Planner, Philadelphia, PA, Coco Tribe): James finds himself in a bit of a weird spot, in terms of demographic.  He doesn’t really hit the “older” designation as the show defines it, but neither is he so young that he automatically fits in with the younger group, despite the tribe still skewing young personality-wise.  That said, just because he isn’t a natural fit doesn’t mean he can’t fit.  He seems fairly easygoing, so unless he costs his tribe a challenge, I think he’ll slot in fairly easily with the other men of his tribe.  It helps that he’s another rare one this season with non-problematic pet peeves, specifically bad customer service and pushy salespeople.  His game smarts, while fine, seem like nothing to write home about, so I’d peg him as another early-to-mid merge boot.  Probably will find himself in the majority initially, but be taken out as a safe bet when said alliance gets targeted.  

Geo Bustamante (36, Project Manager, Honolulu, HI, Coco Tribe): In contrast to James, Geo will be the figurehead of the main alliance who doesn’t have as much going on as he thinks he does, but will avoid a target for being too obvious.  I think Geo does have SOME skills, and certainly his managerial experience can be an asset in forming an alliance.  But when you’re saying you’re as smart as the likes of Cochran and Boston Rob?  Yeah, I find that hard to believe.  Geo will last a good while, as he seems decent in challenges and his tribe will need his strength, but his overinflated sense of self will get the better of him eventually.  Probably somewhere around the early-to-mid merge, though after James.  

Elisabeth “Elie” Scott (31, Clinical Psychologist, Salt Lake City, UT, Baka Tribe): My second overall pick to win the whole thing.  How could I not favor my fellow psychology peep?  Her years of experience in the field, coupled with her relative maturity compared to most of the rest of her cast give her the skills she needs to make at least a deep run.  A stealth threat, I can easily see her squeezing her way to the end, then running roughshod over the other players at Final Tribal Council.  Granted she does dislike injustice, which there can be a LOT of on “Survivor”, but if she keeps that in check?  There’s very little in the way between her and one million dollars.  Just a skilled, competent player all around.  

Dwight Moore (22, Graduate Student, Collierville, TN, Vesi Tribe): Rounding out our cast, Dwight is another one with comparatively less-objectionable pet peeves.  All right, “Arrogance” is a bit problematic, but again, lack of use of turn signals is both relatable and unlikely to happen on the island.  As to people making “The Office” jokes about his name, your guess is as good as mine.  Dwight strikes me as yet another easygoing guy, though with more charm and personality than most of them.  If nothing else, I can respect him appreciating Wendell’s game on “Survivor Ghost Island”, and it seems like that will fit well into his play style.  What stops me from giving him a better rating is his age.  Dude’s not a teenager, but 22 is still pretty young, and I just worry he doesn’t have the life experience needed to pull off a game he might otherwise have the talent for.  He should still make it deep, probably a mid-to-late merge position.  I could even see him being the person out right before the finale.  But win?  Try again in a few years, then we’ll talk.  

There we have our cast, and for the first time in a while, I’m not super thrilled.  While there are a few standouts I quite enjoy (Karla, Jesse, Owen), of the most part I found myself struggling to write about these people.  Very few of them were bad, or actively annoyed me in some way, but they were just… fine.  Nice, decent people with average game competence who just aren’t exciting.  Sort of a whole cast full of Jon Misch (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”).  That’s not the WORST a cast can do, but an exciting season it does not make for.  I hope I’m proven wrong, but I don’t have high hopes for this season to go down well in the history books.  In addition to this problem, we’re likely going to get a lot of new twists, which will take time to explain, and thus eat up screen time a la “Survivor 41”.  When you combine a cast I’m not wild about with the season likely being poorly edited, the outlook is grim.  

That said, things might be even worse than I predict.  Yes, we’re coming back to the pet peeves again.  I think there might be a reason we’ve got similar-sounding pet peeves here, and I think that reason is conflict.  By casting a lot of people with similar buttons to push, you can set yourself up for big, explosive conflicts.  Just one person does something wrong; the whole tribe goes off.  For some people, this is a plus, and makes for exciting tv.  For me, it means we’re doomed to a season of people either being bland, or yelling a lot and being unlikeable.  Let’s hope that I’m wrong.  

This negativity is too much, even for me, so let me end on a more lighthearted note: The tribe names.  Vesi and Coco are fine.  Standard, nothing to write home about.  And I’m sure Baka is an actual Fijian word, and related to the other two tribes in some way.  I’m sure what I’m about to talk about is in no way intended by the “Survivor” production crew.  But I am a nerd.  A nerd who watches a fair amount of subtitled anime.  So to me, I see “Baka”, and I immediately jump to the Japanese definition of the word.  It means, generally, “stupid”, though depending on the contest could also be translated as “idiot”, “moron”, or “dumbass”.  Thus, juvenile as it is, and even though it has ZERO bearing on the people on the tribe, I can’t help but read their tribe name that way.  Hence forth, through no fault of their own, the tribe shall be known, by me, as the “Dumbass Tribe”!

With that bit of levity out of the way, let us hope that my dire predictions are wrong, and I’ll see you in three weeks for the premier!  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Kaoh Rong

Once again, if CBS will not fill the void in our fandom when this goes up by officially announcing the cast of the new season, then it falls to me to fill the void with needless speculation about “What Might Have Been”.  And oh, what a treat we have today.  “Survivor Kaoh Rong” is a personal favorite season of mine, largely due to giving us Aubry Bracco, my all-time favorite player at the time of this writing.  I acknowledge that the season has some flaws, mainly in the editing department, and this keeps if out of the “Great” category of seasons, but I still love it.  Definite room for improvement, though, so let’s see if one tiny change is enough.  

Before discussing said change, though, the usual reminder that there are SPOILERS ahead.  It’s difficult to talk about changing a season without comparing it to how the season actually went down in reality, so I can’t guarantee that this and future seasons won’t be spoiled in this blog.  Past seasons may also be mentioned as well.  Hence, read at your own risk.  

THE IMPACT

Like with Africa, which we talked about earlier this off-season, Kaoh Rong is something of a Holy Grail for “What-If?” scenarios.  Between the medical evacuations and the number of lucky coincidences that happen, there’s just a trove to go through.  Most of these center around Aubry in particular, since while you may say what you want about her in hindsight, she is presented as the main character of this season, so of course most story beats will seem to center around her.  In particular, it’s common for the Michele fans/Aubry detractors to point out that she was saved by luck (had Neal not been medevaced, she almost certainly goes at the merge), while the Aubry fans/Michele detractors will counter that Aubry was also screwed by luck (if Joe doesn’t eat a ton of meat at the final five, Michele almost certainly goes then, leading to an inevitable Aubry victory).  The point I’m making here is twofold: Luck is a factor in “Survivor”, for good or for ill, and these scenarios have been gone over to death by the fanbase, are both equally true, and thus not interesting enough to talk about in this blog on their own.  

Now that I’ve hopefully dodged THAT bullet, and also hopefully avoided reigniting a dead debate that was very cruel and unnecessary, we can talk about the actual change we’re going to make.  Rather than change the outcome of luck, we’re going to change someone else’s mind.  That someone is, of course, Aubry, and that time is going to be at the Final 6.  In our timeline, Tai pushed for ejecting Michele here, something Aubry could have gone along with.  She had Joe’s vote on lock, and Jason, the intended target of Michele and Cydney, would doubtless have gone along with the plan if only to save his own skin.  In our timeline, of course, Aubry sides with Michele and Cydney, citing Cydney as someone she’s tight with, and Jason goes home here.  

That said, what if Aubry decided to take more of an interest in Tai’s plan?  What if Aubry became concerned about the tight twosome that Michele and Cydney form?  We know from post-show interviews that the two were tight from the swapped Chan Loh (and thank you, by the way, show, for COMPLETELY leaving out that particular storyline, only adding to the confusion your ending brought).  It’s not impossible that Aubry becomes concerned about this, and decides to go along with Tai’s plan.  The immediate outcome, of course, is that Michele goes while Jason stays, but what about how the rest of the season (all two remaining episodes of it at least) plays out?  

THE FALLOUT

Aubry choosing to keep Jason is, of course, a controversial move.  I suspect Aubry justifies it to the cameras by emphasizing the Cydney/Michele bond, and also stating that Jason is not good at puzzles, or looks that good to the jury.  Even so, I’m sure this is seen by the fanbase as a possible game-ruining move at the time, and Jason probably brags to confessional about how he just saved himself, even though it was really Tai and Aubry’s doing.  Apart from this, though, our penultimate episode doesn’t change much.  Joe probably still wins reward, and while he may take Tai rather than Cydney with him (and even that’s not guaranteed), this does not change him eating too much meat on reward, and getting evacuated as a result.  Really, all that we can guarantee changes is that Aubry looks an even bigger fool going into the finale, noting in confessional that not voting out Jason may have been her biggest mistake, now that he’s guaranteed a spot in the final four.  

Now, there is one possible change that could shape how things go, which is the aforementioned who Joe chooses to take on reward.  Nothing really changes if he takes Cydney, and she and Aubry patch things up on reward.  If Joe is still in the mindset of “No trust with Cydney” from the last vote, though, I could see him taking Tai.  If so, this raises the possibility that Cydney, burned from the last vote, makes amends with Jason.  In the Aubry/Michele debate in our timeline, Cydney often gets left by the wayside, despite being an excellent strategist and key player in the dominant alliance.  True, she wasn’t beating either of our two heroines, given how many bridges she burned, but still, she deserves respect.  I could see her trying to worm her way back in with Jason, especially if she believed that Aubry had fully turned against her, and not just wanted to break up her bond with Michele.  Whether it would work is another matter.  Jason strikes me as the type to hold a grudge, and I’m not sure he’d be open to anything Cydney had to say.  True, you could argue he has few options, but I could see him believing he could just immunity his way to the end from here.  

All this to say that while I acknowledge another possibility is available, I suspect Cydney tries to work her way back in with Aubry, having little choice otherwise.  Fortunately for her, Jason is still considered the bigger target, and is in for a round of bad luck.  I don’t see him winning the final four immunity, given how tricky that puzzle was, meaning Tai is the most likely winner.  Sadly, we do miss out on Michele’s kicking of the puzzle, so that’s one downgrade.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Jason, without immunity, goes at final four.  Given that he’s the villain of the season, even in this timeline, there is much rejoicing from the audience.  

Of course, this leads us to the challenge at the final three.  It’s certainly possible that, unless Cydney wins, Aubry goes to the end, so I could see the season following “Survivor Cagayan” even more closely, and going for a final two here.  On the other hand, I don’t think production wants to risk even that, so we probably still have our “Juror Removal” twist and a final three there.  Fittingly, this final three is one “Brain”, one “Brawn”, and one “Beauty”, a fun bit of symmetry.  

Given how close Aubry came in that challenge, coupled with it not playing to Sydney’s strengths, I’d say Aubry is probably the winner of the challenge.  It would be easy to say she just votes Scot off the jury, since that’s what she wanted in our timeline, but in this timeline, I think she goes for Julia.  Also a person guaranteed not to vote for her, but more so than Scot in this timeline.  Scot doesn’t like anybody on this final three.  He doesn’t want to vote for any of them.  Yet, since Aubry burned him the least directly out of those left, I could see her thinking she has a shot at his vote.  And if she doesn’t, well, Julia was never going to vote for her either, so it all evens out anyway.  

Perhaps controversial these days, but I’m inclined to say that Aubry wins in this final three regardless of who she gets rid of.  She has three votes guaranteed on this jury (Neal, Nick, and Joe), and while she definitely has two votes guaranteed against her (Michele and Debbie), I think she has a chance at at least Jason’s vote.  After all, if he and Cydney didn’t mend their relationship, then we know from our timeline that Jason was rooting against Cydney, and Tai directly betrayed him on the Scot boot.  Jason may not care for Aubry, but she’s the least objectionable out of the three.  Add onto that Michele’s excellent Final Tribal performance not being there, and Aubry’s average Final Tribal performance looks a lot better.  It may only be 4-3 (depending on who our final jury member is, and how persuadable they actually are), but Aubry comes out on top here.  

THE LEGACY

Before we get into how this impacts the view of the season as a whole, let’s talk about future seasons, since really, this changes little.  While Jason and Cydney are both bigger, more respected characters, there’s not really a good chance for them to come back.  “Survivor Game Changers” is the only full returnee season since then, and I don’t see them nixing any of the Kaoh Rong players we got in our timeline.  And I don’t see them having more than four from a single season, so that is shot.  Aubry’s win doesn’t preclude her coming back, either, since winners were ok that season.  

That said, her win DOES torpedo her chances, and I’d say Aubry is maybe even first out of this season in this timeline.  One of the reasons I will defend Aubry’s game on Game Changers is that, while she never had any real power, the fact that she even MADE IT that far is impressive.  Game Changers, like “Survivor All-Stars” before it, had an anti-winner bias.  Less because “They already got money”, and more because “They’re the biggest threats.”  This justification led to Aubry being lumped in this group in our timeline, with no less than the Queen herself, Sandra Diaz-Twine, wanting her gone.  After all, the prevailing wisdom at the time was “Aubry should have won.”  Partly by good swap luck, and partly by her own guile, Aubry making it as far as she did, power or no, was nothing short of a miracle, and her game that season deserves respect.  But with an actual win under her belt?  Aubry has no chance of making it far this season.  

Of course, this does preclude her from coming back for Edge of Extinction, so she’ll need a replacement.  This would seem the place to include Cydney, but it’s only in the last year or two that Cydney has said she’s willing to return.  She’s doubtless asked, but I think she declines, for the understandable reason of her body deteriorating from the show not being good for her bodybuilding career.  My next thought for who to put in Aubry’s spot was someone cast after her to match her archetype.  Hannah Shapiro of “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” and Gabby Pascuzzi of “Survivor David vs. Goliath” would probably be the top candidates in that regard.  However, I ended up deciding that neither would go, as the former has stated she won’t play again, while the latter, having just come from the same filming cycle, would be unfamiliar to the fans that season.  She would basically get the same reaction from the players as Amanda on “Survivor Micronesia”, and I don’t think production wants that again.  

No, I think Aubry’s open spot here gives Chrissy Hoffbeck (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) her second shot.  While not the “nerd” archetype that Aubry has, Chrissy still gets the “offbeat choice” niche, while still being a favorite who is known to the fans.  Does this change the season drastically?  Eh, probably not.  While Chrissy might make it farther than Aubry does in our timeline, if only by virtue of actually playing an idol if she finds it, the anti-returnee sentiment on this season was too strong, and we still probably get our unsatisfying Chris win here.  The one upside is that there is no “Drive Aubry away from the fanbase by personally attacking her for a bad game decision”, meaning we have a more active online Aubry in this timeline, for which I, for one, am eternally grateful.  Seriously, fanbase, shame on you for how you acted toward her.  Agree or disagree with her, what you did is not ok.  

While Aubry’s win precludes her from appearing on Edge of Extinction, it puts her in the running for Winners at War.  Given that she’s a relatively recent, popular winner at this point, I don’t see her not coming back.  We don’t even have to speculate about who she replaces, since she just takes the spot Michele had in our timeline.  Does Aubry mimic Michele’s placement this season?  Probably not.  While I am an Aubry fan, I will admit that Michele’s game, while not as fun to watch, is overall smarter in terms of making a deep run.  Both play fantastic games that can be winning ones, but run their seasons a hundred times randomized, and Michele’s strategy wins out more often than Aubry’s.  Aubry probably goes either after the swap, depending on if she gets a bad draw, or early-ish in the merge if not.  Probably around where Adam goes in our timeline is her ceiling, just due to her threat level.  

But what of Kaoh Rong as a whole?  Well, for what I believe is the first time in the history of these blogs, we actually have a timeline change that RETROACTIVELY changes a season, or at least how it’s presented.  Specifically, Aubry’s decision at final six will FORCE the edit to highlight the Cydney/Michele bond a lot more to justify Aubry’s action, which is criticized at the time but in hindsight is seen as a brilliant move.  This paints the pair in a different light.  For want of a better term, a villainous light.  Don’t misunderstand, the pair aren’t the villains of the season; Scot and Jason claimed that title pretty definitively when they started sabotaging the camp.  But the pair are presented in a similar way to Ami on “Survivor Vanuatu”.  Not bad as people, but shrewd players who are an obstacle to our underdog hero.  Thereby de-facto antagonists, if not necessarily villainous.  This is why Cydney gets elevated to a higher status in the fandom, though conversely, Michele kind of becomes a footnote.  

Of course an Aubry win makes Kaoh Rong work much better as a season, and elevates it to at least near-greatness.  I hesitate to give it full greatness, partly taking into account my pro-Aubry bias, and partly because I could see her win being seen as “predictable”, which is often a mark against a season.  The main problem with the season in our timeline is that everything in the narrative tells us that Aubry SHOULD win against anyone.  I know edgic set up Michele as the winner fairly early, but as someone who was firmly watching at the time, I can tell you the assumption was that Michele won because Aubry got eliminated before the finals.  Thus, it still felt wrong when Aubry made finals but lost anyway.  There’s a conflict between what we think SHOULD happen narratively, and what ACTUALLY happens.  An Aubry win avoids that conflict, and at least for me, makes a much better season as a whole.  

Ok, so maybe this was an excuse to give my favorite player a win.  I admit to more bias in this blog than perhaps any other.  Still, I hope the scenario has been at least semi-plausible and fun for everyone, though!  Let me know what scenarios you’d like covered in the future!  I’ll happily give credit to anyone who gives me an idea I use.  Just post it in the comments section of this blog, or wherever you happened to find this blog.  Guidelines for submissions are listed below.  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Island of the Idols.

As always, our suggestions and feedback are much appreciated.  Take care out there, everyone!

-Matt

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Samoa

Come on in, guys!  And welcome back to “Survivor What-Ifs”, where we make one little change in a given season of “Survivor”, to see how it impacts the rest of “Survivor” history.  And oh boy, what a season we have to consider today.  “Survivor Samoa” is arguably the most divisive season of the show, largely due to the fact that it could be more aptly titled “The Russell Hantz Show”.  “Survivor” is no stranger to having a “big character” of the season.  One could argue that Rupert took on a similar role for “Survivor Pearl Islands”, or Boston Rob in “Survivor Redemption Island” if we look to the future at this point.  

Samoa is a bit special, though, in that Russell takes up SO much screen time, he effectively pushes out anyone else who might want character bits or a story arc.  To put it in perspective, Russell has somewhere in the ballpark of four times the number of confessionals OF THE WINNER!  Yeah, dude was a bit of a screen hog, or just made into one by the editors.  Hence, the division.  If you, like a lot of the audience then and now, enjoyed Russell’s character on the show, having a season devoted to him was an interesting diversion, making for a distinctive season.  If you, like me, found Russell to be incredibly flawed as a player, and found that his schtick got old after about one episode, this season really has nothing else for you, and was at best a chore to get through.  So, let’s see if we can change that, shall we?  Can we make one little change that can make this season more palatable to everyone, Russell fans and Russell haters alike?  

Before we get into that, though, a couple of bits of business.  First, to give credit where credit is due, this particular idea for a “What-If?” did not come from me.  Instead, the inspiration came from YouTube channel “Once Upon An Island”, which does “Survivor”-related videos.  Recently, they did a history of people who got medically evacuated off the show, and if you remember “Survivor Samoa”, you can already see where this is going.  Still, since I wouldn’t have thought of this were it not for the video, I feel I need to acknowledge it here.  Moreover, though, be aware that this blog will contain SPOILERS, both for this season and future seasons, since we need to be reminded of our baseline before we talk about how a change would work.  Without further ado, though, let us change history.  

THE IMPACT

As you may have guessed from the lead-in, our change today concerns Russell.  No, not Russell Hantz, the OTHER Russell of this season, one Russell Swan.  Arguably the only character to actually get some note on the show other than the eponymous Hantz, Russell Swan was the leader of Galu, though perhaps most famous for his medical evacuation late in the pre-merge.  Possibly the most dramatic in the history of the show, Russell Swan worked himself through the rain to keep the camp orderly, but then just could not handle the challenge in this episode, leading to his scary collapse in the middle of doing a maze.  As a side note, this episode has a vivid personal memory for me.  I was in High School at the time, and well-known as the “Survivor” guy.  A girl in my theatre department had a family that was majorly into “Survivor”, but she herself had never watched it.  She was finally convinced to give it a try… In the episode where Russell Swan nearly dies.  Understandably, she was freaked out, and never watched the show again, for which I cannot blame her.  

Now, I initially would not have thought of a possible change for this scenario.  The only thing I could see being done to avoid it would be for Russell to not work in the rain, a change to his personality so drastic that it would violate my own rules for what makes an acceptable change to talk about.  The video mentioned above, however, reminded me of another, more plausible change.  I did not remember that Galu tried to get Russell to sit out, only for him to say that he was good to go, and they dropped the subject.  This is possibly because I try my hardest to forget that “Survivor Samoa” exists on a regular basis.  

But what if Galu didn’t drop the subject?  What if they insisted that they could tell Russell wasn’t doing well, and insist that he sit out such a low-stakes challenge.  Some may disagree, given his portrayal on “Survivor Philippines”, but I think Russell caves here.  The man could be stubborn, and could have a “my way or the highway” attitude, but he could back down in the face of a majority.  You’ll note that he had gone along with the plan to vote out Yasmin a few episodes before, in spite of the fact that he didn’t agree with the decision.  So the man clearly CAN give in to the will of his tribe.  In this timeline, the will of his tribe is that he sit out, and so he does.  

Going on with how it changes this episode, the winner of this challenge really is a moot point, since it was set to be a double Tribal Council prior to Russell’s collapse.  If you must know, though, I would guess that Foa Foa wins without Russell playing in the challenge.  With the possible exception of Dave Ball, none of the sit-outs would have made much of a difference, and Foa Foa did have a slight lead in the challenge even in our timeline.  With no medical evacuation, the Double Tribal Council takes place as planned.  As in our timeline, Foa Foa votes out Liz Kim, but Galu is a bit trickier, since in our timeline, we don’t get a lot of their internal tribe dynamics, due to only going to Tribal Council once.  That said, I think the best bet is that Shambo gets voted out at this juncture, if Tribal Council goes forward.  The tribe wasn’t overly fond of her already, she had already been to the Foa Foa camp and developed bonds there a couple of times at this point, plus she was the only person not to vote for Yasmin at Galu’s first Tribal Council.  

THE FALLOUT

So what happens now?  In the short term, Russell Swan gets better.  One major factor in his evacuation in our timeline was the fact that there were several straight days of bad weather in a row.  After the episode in our timeline where Russell collapses, the weather improves, thus allowing the rest of Galu to pick up the slack and let Russell get some rest.  So, in this timeline, Mike Borassi is the only medical casualty of “Survivor Samoa”.  Predicting the merge, however, is much tricker, largely due to an internal production decision that, as far as I know, we will never know the truth about.  You see, in our timeline, we had one more immunity challenge pre-merge.  However, it’s not clear if this decision was made due to the medical evacuation canceling the planned Double Tribal Council, or if this was always in the cards, and the merge was planned for the Final 11 instead of the Final 12.  Honestly, either one seems plausible to me, and there’s evidence for both options (the number of days played at this point make it seem like there was always another immunity challenge planned, but the odd number of players and start of the jury at Final 12 indicate a merge in the same episode).  

Ultimately, though, it probably doesn’t matter.  Even in the best-case scenario for Foa Foa, where the merge happens immediately after the Double Tribal Council, they’re still down 8-4.  Similar to out timeline, but now Russell Swan, rather than Shambo, is in the merge.  And that, dear readers, makes all the difference.  

The absence of Shambo, and the presence of Russell Swan, basically kills what little chance Foa Foa has of repeating the comeback they make in our timeline in this timeline.  There’s three major factors that lead to this conclusion.  Firstly, with no Shambo at the merge, there’s also no Shambo to flip to Foa Foa as soon as it hits.  Yes, even with Shamboo’s flip, Foa Foa was still down 7-5, but clever idol plays and a narrower majority put Galu in much more peril than they are in this timeline.  Second, there’s Russell Swan as a uniting factor.  The man has his flaws as a “leader”, there’s no doubt about it, but when it came to bringing the tribe together against a common enemy, the man knew how to do his job.  Look at how they devolved into infighting after his evacuation in our timeline.  A united Galu front, rather than a fractured one as we saw in our timeline, is hard to overcome.  It’s true that hidden immunity idols are a factor here, and for all of Russell Hantz’s many, MANY flaws in his game, the man is good at finding hidden immunity idols, which could give Foa Foa more of an edge.  That said, this feels like the sort of trick that only works once.  Maybe at the merge, Russell out-predicts Galu, and sends one of them home.  Galu doesn’t let that happen again, and pulls the “Edgardo Maneuver” from “Survivor Fiji”, voting for a member of Foa Foa no one expects, and Foa Foa is screwed once again.  

Really, though, the big factor is that this time, the votes are out of their system.  It’s an interesting pattern on “Survivor”, but for whatever reason, tribes that only attend one or fewer Tribal Councils tend to vote for one of their own immediately after the merge.  From Koror on “Survivor Palau” to Bayon on “Survivor Cambodia”, if you largely avoid Tribal Council pre-merge, you’re more than likely going to turn on one of your own come the merge.  Granted, this pattern is more prevalent in seasons with only two tribes, but as “Survivor Samoa” is one such season, the point stands.  Even in our timeline, despite losing two members, Galu only went to one Tribal Council, and they turned on each other at the merge.  The reasons for this pattern are varied, but I hypothesize that people get irritating, and all you think about is voting them off to the point where you jump the gun once you have the opportunity.  Galu going to just ONE MORE Tribal Council helps clear up those internal divisions, and unite the tribe.  From there it’s just a numbers game.  Barring someone from Foa Foa going on an immunity streak a la Brett in our timeline, or them playing their hidden immunity idols PERFECTLY, someone from Galu wins in this timeline.  The factors are too many to say who it would be with any degree of confidence, but that the winner is an original Galu, I can say with confidence.  

THE LEGACY

A Galu victory naturally changes the way the entire season of “Survivor Samoa” is edited.  Don’t misunderstand, Russell Hantz is still a big name, if only for his aptitude and finding hidden immunity idols without clues, before such things were common.  But without leading his tribe back from the brink to victory, Russell isn’t the only game in town.  He has to share screen time with a bunch of the Galus, so they get more character development.  A necessary change, as this season is untimely just a boring Pagonging in this timeline.  

Surprisingly, the season that probably changes the LEAST as a result of this new timeline is “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”.  Russell Hantz, despite not being as legendary in this timeline, still revolutionized the finding of idols, and had already talked about “Russell Seeds” and sabotaging his tribe before our timeline change.  We in our timeline might be inclined to say they bring back Russell Swan on the Heroes Tribe, since he saved Galu from collapsing.  However, remember that we only know that because of OUR timeline.  In this timeline, the destruction of Foa Foa seems inevitable, and while Russell is well-regarded, particularly in comparison to Mick on Foa Foa, he’s not legendary enough for such a season.  I’m sure he comes back at some point, just probably more in the area of a “Survivor Game Changers” than “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”.  The only possible change is that Russell Hantz is MAYBE more humble in this timeline with the knowledge that he definitively did NOT win his season, but I doubt it.  With the rivalry between himself and Boston Rob still intact, “Survivor Redemption Island” remains unchanged, along with the “Russell-proofing” of idols, and Russell’s impact on “Survivor” History as a whole.  

The cast makeups of some future seasons are hard to determine without knowing who the winner is, though I’d imagine we get more returnees from Samoa in general due to it no longer just being “The Russell Hantz Show”.  Some characters on Galu, like Erik and Dave, get more screen time, and I could see them or another member of Galu coming back on something like a “Survivor Game Changers”, or even “Survivor Caramoan”.  Monica, however, probably fares worse than she does in our timeline.  Without even the flimsy “She put fear into Russell Hantz” justification that she got in our timeline, I doubt Monica is up for “Survivor Cambodia”, or if she is, she’s not voted in.  Now, you might be inclined to replace her with another young, attractive woman from the show.  Someone like Baylor from “Survivor San Juan del Sur” could take her place.  However, I’ll go out on a limb and say that T-Bird from “Survivor Africa” gets on instead.  Yes, T-Bird is a completely different archetype, and was in the vote in our timeline and still lost, but so help me, I want T-Bird to return, and I’m still salty she didn’t win the vote in our timeline.  Just let me have this, ok?

Of course, no medical evacuation for Russell Swan makes him ineligible to return on “Survivor Philippines”, meaning he’s replaced with their original plan… *shudder* Colton Cumbie of “Survivor One World”.  Yeah, I don’t even have to go into the details of how that would change the season to know it’s a change for the worse.  

“Survivor Winners at War” is really the only other major returnee season to discuss here, and again, without knowing the winner, we can’t really say if they’d be on or not.  If the winner was one of the bigger characters of Samoa, like the aforementioned Dave or Erik, yeah, they probably get on.  If it’s someone less exciting, like John Fincher or Kelly Sharbaugh, perhaps not.  As to whether a John Fincher win prevents him and Parvati Shallow from marrying, there’s just no way  to know.  

So, once again, to the ultimate question: Does this change make the season better?  Ehh… If I’m being objective, it really doesn’t.  Even as someone who loathes “Survivor Samoa”, I have to admit that it’s memorable.  Lopsided in the edit, and centered around an annoying egomaniac whose voice has become like sandpaper in my brain, yes, but memorable.  But as mentioned earlier, without the Foa Foa turnaround, the season is ultimately a predictable Pagonging by the tribe that was obviously going to dominate, with only a few interesting characters to be found.  In the end, I suppose it’s better to be polarizing than to be forgettable, and in that sense, yes, this change is a change for the worse.  Sorry, Russell Swan!  

And that about covers the major changes that result from Russell Swan not being medically evacuated.  Of course, with 20 years of “Survivor” History to go through, there’s a lot more changes to discuss, and I want to hear what you want discussed!  Leave a comment on this blog, or wherever it’s posted, of what timeline changes you’d like to see me discuss next!  To help, the guidelines for what sorts of changes I’m willing to examine are below:  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are two what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these rules can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are two things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

Hope everyone is doing well, and getting vaccinated!

-Matt