Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 12: Illumination

Contrary to what you might expect, this week’s title does NOT refer to our spotlight-stealing-squad that is Carolyn.  No, this refers to Illumination Entertainment, the animation studio responsible for giving us everyone’s favorite annoying, walking memes, the Minions.  And specifically, I’m referring to said studio’s propensity for gross-out humor, something I personally didn’t want on “Survivor”, but this seasons is giving us in spades regardless of what I want, from Danny’s fart to Carolyn asking for a chocolate burp from Yam Yam this episode.   

Despite Heidi being in a position to be left out and upset, our post-Tribal discussion centers around Carolyn.  With the reveal that she had the Tika idol, which no one called (Yam Yam claims to have, but if he did, we never saw it.), everyone sings her praises.  She of course gets asked about the “Red X” thing from WAY back in the season, and she can’t help but tell the whole story.  She spins a good yarn about it, too, helping to assuage fears that she might not be able to sell herself/her game well at Final Tribal Council.  Perhaps realizing how big a target this makes her, though, she tries to downplay it, saying it was just her being crazy.  Absolutely zero people buy this.  About the person still the most skeptical is Lauren, and even she more says Carolyn has strategy under a crazy appearance than actually dismissing her strategy.  

While Heidi doesn’t outwardly say she’s concerned about her position, she is the first one up to look for an idol, assuming Carolyn’s was re-planted.  She’s not stealthy enough for Carson, however, and he alerts everyone else, leading to a mass idol-hunt.  While Heidi does have her own idol, she wants two to ensure she’s safe up until Final Four Fire-Making.  Fair enough.  She doesn’t find it; indeed no one finds it, at least that we see.  All we get is more confirmation that these people do not know proper idol-hunting technique.  So many hands blindly plunged into trees.  Poke in with a stick first, people!  Snakes are still a thing!  

Without idols, talk turns to strategy.  Having evidently realized their error in not breaking up the Tika Three before, Jaime and Lauren set out to do so now, hyping up to Carson and Yam Yam how much of a threat Carolyn has turned out to be.  They subtly hint that Carolyn should go, and Carson and Yam Yam agree to their faces.  Unfortunately, our narrator for this strategy is Jaime, and as the pattern of the season goes, Jaime must be wrong.  Thus, this plan is doomed to failure before it even begins.  

Sure enough, Carson admits in confessional that he wants to keep Carolyn around, which makes sense for him.  While Carolyn is a bigger threat, Carson is probably the one person left who can still beat her, and thus his concern is less “Who do I get to the end with?” and more “How do I get to the end?”  Keeping around Carolyn, who’s shown amazing loyalty to him thus far, and is an eye-catching target he can shield himself with, is thereby a smart move.  

Notice I only talked about Carson’s perspective there.  We’ll come back to Yam Yam.  

Our reward challenge is the Russell Swan Memorial Ball Roll, commemorating the man’s near-death in “Survivor Samoa”.  Not sure why we want that commemorated, since I know for a fact it turned at least one person off “Survivor” permanently, but since this challenge was also used last season, I’m guessing budget is a factor.  Honestly, the only noticeable change is a few branches tied to the top of each ball, which seems kind of pointless.  I guess it’s to make it look like the ball picked up debris in later shots, but it’s so obvious early on, that it seems more trouble than it’s worth.  

Our random division of teams this time gives the orange team, that being Lauren, Carson, and Yam Yam, an edge.  They have the best puzzle-solvers on their side.  They have the strongest people left in the game on their side.  And, perhaps their biggest advantage of all, they DON’T have Carolyn, who somehow managed to lose the ball when she should have had a fairly good grip on it, or at least a decent spatial sense of where it was throughout.  While the purple team does get to the table maze at the end (both Jaime and Carson, the callers for their respective teams, being ok being placed in a “Superman” horizontal pose rather than being rotated upright for some reason), orange easily beats them, earning a day at The Sanctuary, foot massages, and sandwiches.  And people say the rewards aren’t great in the modern era.  Please note the sarcasm.  

Yam Yam is happy to have basically anything, but Jaime is happy too.  Evidently Carson’s relative disinterest in getting rid of Carolyn did not go unnoticed, and so Jaime pitches to Carolyn getting rid of Carson.  She meets with basically the same result.  Carolyn says to her face it’s a good idea, but privately notes that while she does need to get rid of Carson, it’s too soon.  Again, can’t fault the logic here.  Carson is probably the only person left Carolyn DOESN’T beat, but as she’s such a big target, she probably does need a shield around.  If Tika breaks up now, even assuming Carson goes, Carolyn is probably gone next.  Hence, she should probably wait a vote or two before striking (I’m assuming Carolyn has a way to get Carson out at Final Four Firemaking).  

To help prevent any sort of counter-alliance, Carolyn offers Heidi a spot to split up the remaining old Ratu, which Heidi agrees with, partly because they voted against her last time, and partly because it would let her save her idol.  I’d say Heidi’s best interest is still probably to break up Tika, since she NEEDS to strike out on her own if she’s going to have a chance at the end of showing she had agency, but I can see her points here.  

All this is not to say those at The Sanctuary DON’T strategize.  Indeed, Lauren pitches them again the idea of getting rid of Carolyn.  It’s here that we get Yam Yam’s perspective.  Of the Tika Three, he’s the most receptive to breaking up the group now.  Which, again, makes sense.  What works in Yam Yam’s favor in the end is that he’s very sociable.  The show has done a good job of demonstrating that Yam Yam is well-liked, and he does have the argument of “Everyone who voted for me is on the jury.”  Working against Yam Yam is that, as the default decoy boot, you’re often seen as not having enough agency in your own game to be worthy of winning in the end.  Again, look at the case of Romeo on “Survivor 42”: It’s not that the man DIDN’T have any sort of argument he could make, and it’s not that he didn’t acquit himself well at Final Tribal Council.  It’s that by the time he got there, he was considered such a non-factor in the strategy of the game that no one was really willing to give him the time of day.  Yam Yam needs to prevent this at all costs, and breaking up the Tika Three shows that he had agency, and takes the people who might be considered to have “dragged him to the end” out of the equation.  It is risky, given that he would be an easy target at four in that case, but then again, with how many people say they want him in the end, he’s in as good a position there as he can hope for regardless.  Besides, better to go out at four with a shot to win than to make the finals against people you’re hopeless against.  

Upon his return to camp, Carolyn and Carson compare notes.  The pair mock the non-Tika for trying to break up Tika, saying they’re being too obvious about it.  I get where they’re coming from, but I think they’re a bit mean here.  I mean, what do you expect, everyone else to just roll over and let your tribe dominate?  I suppose that’s what they’ve been doing so far since the merge, but these players aren’t that stupid.  They might as well throw everything against the wall to form a crack.  At this point, what choice do they have?  

I know the individual immunity challenges have been nothing to write home about, but MAN this one is lame.  It’s the “Balance a ball on a plate between two ropes” challenge we’ve seen too much of by now, and it just not interesting.  To make matters worse, this group really stinks at this particular challenge.  Lauren and Heidi are the only two who make it through the first (10-minute) round, and Heidi drops pretty quickly into round two.  Lauren’s curtsey upon getting the necklace put on is nice, at least.  

Lauren winning immunity is a slight wrinkle in things, since Tika’s plan was to break up Ratu by sending her home.  That wrinkle is quickly ironed out by switching the target to Jaime.  Probably the least-strategic player left in the game at this point, but hey, it’s the one Heidi will accept, so we’re going with that.  Heidi for her part says she’d like to hold on to her idol, but will play it if she feels threatened.  This is also known as “Bog Standard Idol Confessional #5”.  

Thus it falls to Yam Yam to do the heavy lifting for misdirection this episode, ramping up his anti-Carolyn dialogue.  Yam Yam frames this as a duel between his heart and his head.  Do the strategically smart thing and get out a threat to better his own position, or keep a friend around at the cost of his game.  An old dilemma, but a solid one.  Basically the bread and butter of “Survivor”.  

Recognizing that with Heidi on board, he needs Carson to vote with him, he pitches the idea to Carson.  In addition to the “threat” argument already made, Yam Yam notes that Carolyn will be tough to take on in fire, stating that she practiced so much she was “bleeding”.  If this were about anyone else, I would dismiss it as hyperbole, but in Carolyn’s case that may be true.  With Yam Yam pitching the idea, Carson is considering it, as Carolyn’s a threat, but remains reluctant.  What’s interesting here is that Yam Yam and Carson NEED to vote together for either side to have a majority, but their interests are diametrically opposed, as I’ve already said Carson’s smartest move is to keep Carolyn, while Yam Yam’s is to vote her out.  I’d say if we’re trying to find the best compromise between the two, getting rid of Carolyn is probably slightly better, as Carson’s then eliminating his one true threat at Final Tribal, but again, I can see why he’d want to keep Carolyn around.  

In a rarity for misdirection this season, I don’t buy it for a second.  Yeah, sorry, this episode is about the only one this season where I would say the outcome is entirely predictable.  Perhaps they had no choice with who said what in confessional, but the big flaw here is making Jaime the driving force behind wanting Carolyn out.  You can’t spend all season building up how everything she says is wrong, only then to turn around and expect me to believe that one of her plans will actually work.  

It seems the quality of Tribal Council is inversely proportional to how much of a mystery the vote is.  To contrast with our completely obvious vote, we have a Tribal Council that’s actually exciting, emotional, and metaphor-free!  We start off with the reveal that, in anticipation of moving to a new camp for the last few days, they brought everything from their old camp, even the paintbrushes.  Lauren did most of the schlepping, due to her being immune.  Probst is amused, but I’m just sitting here smugly, waiting for him to tell me again how “unpredictable” this new era of the show is.  

A comedic amount of supplies is not the only good bit, however.  There’s come decent banter for once, and most of the talk centers around emotion vs. strategy.  Carolyn gives the thesis that one can play with emotion, while still being strategic, again subtly setting up her argument for the jury beforehand.  Smart move on her part.  Yam Yam then talks about the heart/head debate again, and even tears up a bit over it.  It tugs at the heartstrings, even predicting the outcome.  It may not be a legendary Tribal Council, but after they’ve ranged from “Blah” to “Extremely Blah” this season, I’ll take it.  

I can’t say that I blame Heidi too much for playing her idol.  With Lauren immune, and no faith on her end that the Tika Three would break apart, Heidi had a 50/50 chance of going.  Better to play an idol than to go out with one in your pocket.  Sadly, I do think this torpedos any chance she has of winning the game.  Heidi really needed to demonstrate here that she could make smart moves on her own.  While understandable, and getting some good reactions from the jury, Heidi didn’t negate a single vote, and has made herself more vulnerable at Final Five.  Plus, she needed all of Tika to leave before finals for her to have good people to argue against, and with this outcome, that mathematically can’t happen now.  

Yep, the predictable thing happened.  Yam Yam stuck with his heart, and Jaime is gone.  Overall, I can’t say I’m too sorry.  She was by no means annoying or anything, but the “Jaime is always wrong” storyline only has so much mileage.  Plus, she was the only one going into this episode who I would say had no winning finals combination (I would say Heidi is there as well now, but that’s as a result of this episode, not before it), so we keep the “best” players in the game, for want of a better word.  Really, the biggest downside to Jaime leaving is how predictable it makes the finale, something I’ll get into in a bit.  

Speaking about just this episode, I will say it’s very efficient.  Hits the strategic points, emotional moments, and challenges in a flowing manner, one logically leading to the next.  With the exception of the banter at Tribal Council itself, which I maintain is the best of the season to date, nothing really stands out about this episode.  It does what it needs to adequately, but not spectacularly.  An enjoyable episode, but not a legendary one.  

That said, it’s time for my traditional penultimate-episode PLAYER RANKINGS!  For the unfamiliar, I list out the players who are left, in descending order of who I think has the best shot at winning should they get to the end.  A reminder that this is assuming they GET to the end, not a ranking of how LIKELY they are to get there.  With all that said, this should come with few surprises, starting with my number one pick…

1. CARSON-As always, this spot is reserved for the person who wins outright assuming they get to the end, and this season, that person can only be Carson.  I can see arguments for Carolyn, but Carson, like her, has strategic accomplishments he can lean on (particularly in how he helped play Ratu against Soka), but doesn’t have the baggage of how he was perceived early on to overcome.  Everyone loves Carson, so he doesn’t have to worry about being beaten socially by basically anyone.  Should he get to the end, I see no downside that should prevent his winning.  

2. CAROLYN-Carolyn has really moved up in the rankings these past two weeks.  Her perception as “crazy” and “emotional” was the big problem initially, but Carolyn has been really proactive countering this narrative to the jury.  Playing an idol no one else knew about, seeding them that being emotional does not include playing strategically.  If Carolyn wants a shot at the end, she’s made all the right moves to do so, hence why she claims the number two spot.  It’s only the concern that that first impression may linger in some jurors that keeps her out of the top spot, but as long as she’s not up against Carson, I don’t believe it will be a deal-breaker.  

3. YAM YAM-Yep, the Tika Three take the top three spots.  We’ll get into that more in a bit.  For now, Yam Yam’s biggest strength, as I said, is that he’s well-liked.  He’s someone the jury would WANT to vote for in several situations.  What Yam Yam lacks is a strategic justification for that popularity vote, and while the social game is still king, you need to give the jury at least SOMETHING to justify it.  “Everyone who voted for me is on the jury” isn’t nothing, but pales in comparison to what Carolyn and Carson each have.  Thus, Yam Yam’s best hope is to go to the end with Lauren and Heidi, since they don’t really have any more strategic accomplishments than he does, and his social game would therefore stand out a bit more.  

4. LAUREN-Despite being fourth, I don’t see Lauren having NO shot at the end, but things will have to go exactly right for her.  She can make the “I was repeatedly targeted as a threat and still made it” argument, since many on the jury (particularly Danny) wanted her out at several points.  There’s also nothing to suggest any of the jury particularly dislike her.  Her main issue is that her strategic game pales in comparison to Carolyn and Carson, and her social game pales in comparison to all of Tika.  She needs Carolyn and Carson out, then needs to REALLY lay into Yam Yam at finals to have a shot.  Impossible?  No.  Unlikely?  Yes.

5. HEIDI-In contrast to Carolyn, Heidi has fallen the most in these rankings.  It’s a shame, too, as her game has been quiet, but when she’s not trying to make a move in the open, it’s decent.  She’s staying alive, and remains well-liked, so that’s something.  But she really needed to not face the Tika Three, and be seen as a driving force behind getting them out, to have a shot.  Without that, and with the blundered idol play (even if it was understandable) this episode, I just don’t see that happening.  

And that, really, is the one problem I have with this season.  We’ll see how the finale goes, but so far it’s been a solid season.  Likable characters, with a focus ON those characters, rather than twists.  Good theming, good mystery in general.  There’s a lot to like.  But, fascinating as it is to watch the Tika Three masterfully play both sides against each other, it does lead to a fairly predictable outcome where you know one of that group is going to win.  Granted, it’s still better than seasons like “Survivor One World” or “Survivor Redemption Island” where it was obvious from early on exactly WHO was going to win.  But still, marching to the end with almost no pushback does not an interesting finale make.  

I think the problem we face here is that the show is overcorrecting for the outcome of “Survivor 43”.  Recall that Gabler’s win was… controversial, shall we say.  Many people said his win came out of nowhere, and they didn’t understand it.  Probst, I believe, has even acknowledged that they may have hid his win too well, and took that into consideration for “Survivor 44”.  And in general, I think that was good feedback to take.  I know a lot of people have gone back over “Survivor 43”, and said they understand Gabler’s win better, but I disagree.  The flaw, to me, is twofold.  First, there’s the violation of “Show, Don’t Tell”.  I concede the win of Gabler was foreshadowed.  All his talk about being the “Alli-Gabler”, and “Hiding in plain sight” certainly hinted at that.  But while we’re told he COULD win, we’re not told WHY.  True, it was probably his social game, and Gabler would hardly be the first social-winner to be under-edited, but again, we’re just TOLD that part of his game is good, not SHOWN how it’s good.  The few times he does make a social bond, such as the “Ride or Die” alliance, it’s underplayed to the point that we forget it even happened.  What we remember is his over the top, messy public gameplay, not the little private stuff.  

That ties into the second problem in showing Gabler’s win: His early narrative was never countered.  The few times Gabler DID take strategic prominence in his season, it was threatening to use his Shot in the Dark unnecessarily, and being blunt about wanting Elie out.  While he did get his way, the way this move was executed did not scream “Subtle strategist”, and thus we the audience dismiss him in terms of winner contention.  That’s partly on us, but again, when half the show feeds us the narrative of “Gabler is a messy player”, it’s understandable why the perception from the viewing audience might be different than that of the jury.  Thus, the show wants to correct this, particularly if Carolyn ends up being the winner, since she could also be described as “Messy” in some of her early gameplay.  The winner was too subtle last time?  Make it obvious which group is dominant?  Winner makes some controversial moves?  Make sure we get insight into their strategic thinking as well to counteract that narrative.  Yes, particularly in Carolyn wins, this will all make sense, but again, I feel like perhaps a bit TOO much sense.  Perhaps I’m impossible to please, and certainly if push comes to shove, I will say this season is better than the last.  But it feels like they went from making the winner not visible enough to too obvious.  Somewhere in here there’s a middle ground, and I hope the editors can find it.  

I say IF Carolyn wins, but personally, I think it’s going to happen.  Hell, I’ll even predict how the finale goes once again: Lauren is out at 5.  She loses the immunity challenge, is feared for her challenge wins and respected strategy (as the assumed head of Ratu), and Heidi, happy it’s not her, jumps on board.  At Final Four, Yam Yam wins an unexpected immunity, and not wanting Carolyn to win any glory, sends Heidi and Carson to fire.  This has been foreshadowed for both, as Heidi started the fire for Soka back in episode 1, and Carson keeps getting shots of fire reflected in his glasses.  Carson completes his “Fallen Angel” arc by losing just shy of Finals, and we have a Heidi, Yam Yam, Carolyn final three.  As my rankings showed, Carolyn wins.  Possibly unanimously, though Yam Yam could pick up a vote or two with charm and a good performance.  

Hoo boy, for a pretty standard episode, this ended up being a long blog.  Let’s see how much the finale tops the length by.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.