Once again, if CBS will not fill the void in our fandom when this goes up by officially announcing the cast of the new season, then it falls to me to fill the void with needless speculation about “What Might Have Been”. And oh, what a treat we have today. “Survivor Kaoh Rong” is a personal favorite season of mine, largely due to giving us Aubry Bracco, my all-time favorite player at the time of this writing. I acknowledge that the season has some flaws, mainly in the editing department, and this keeps if out of the “Great” category of seasons, but I still love it. Definite room for improvement, though, so let’s see if one tiny change is enough.
Before discussing said change, though, the usual reminder that there are SPOILERS ahead. It’s difficult to talk about changing a season without comparing it to how the season actually went down in reality, so I can’t guarantee that this and future seasons won’t be spoiled in this blog. Past seasons may also be mentioned as well. Hence, read at your own risk.
THE IMPACT
Like with Africa, which we talked about earlier this off-season, Kaoh Rong is something of a Holy Grail for “What-If?” scenarios. Between the medical evacuations and the number of lucky coincidences that happen, there’s just a trove to go through. Most of these center around Aubry in particular, since while you may say what you want about her in hindsight, she is presented as the main character of this season, so of course most story beats will seem to center around her. In particular, it’s common for the Michele fans/Aubry detractors to point out that she was saved by luck (had Neal not been medevaced, she almost certainly goes at the merge), while the Aubry fans/Michele detractors will counter that Aubry was also screwed by luck (if Joe doesn’t eat a ton of meat at the final five, Michele almost certainly goes then, leading to an inevitable Aubry victory). The point I’m making here is twofold: Luck is a factor in “Survivor”, for good or for ill, and these scenarios have been gone over to death by the fanbase, are both equally true, and thus not interesting enough to talk about in this blog on their own.
Now that I’ve hopefully dodged THAT bullet, and also hopefully avoided reigniting a dead debate that was very cruel and unnecessary, we can talk about the actual change we’re going to make. Rather than change the outcome of luck, we’re going to change someone else’s mind. That someone is, of course, Aubry, and that time is going to be at the Final 6. In our timeline, Tai pushed for ejecting Michele here, something Aubry could have gone along with. She had Joe’s vote on lock, and Jason, the intended target of Michele and Cydney, would doubtless have gone along with the plan if only to save his own skin. In our timeline, of course, Aubry sides with Michele and Cydney, citing Cydney as someone she’s tight with, and Jason goes home here.
That said, what if Aubry decided to take more of an interest in Tai’s plan? What if Aubry became concerned about the tight twosome that Michele and Cydney form? We know from post-show interviews that the two were tight from the swapped Chan Loh (and thank you, by the way, show, for COMPLETELY leaving out that particular storyline, only adding to the confusion your ending brought). It’s not impossible that Aubry becomes concerned about this, and decides to go along with Tai’s plan. The immediate outcome, of course, is that Michele goes while Jason stays, but what about how the rest of the season (all two remaining episodes of it at least) plays out?
THE FALLOUT
Aubry choosing to keep Jason is, of course, a controversial move. I suspect Aubry justifies it to the cameras by emphasizing the Cydney/Michele bond, and also stating that Jason is not good at puzzles, or looks that good to the jury. Even so, I’m sure this is seen by the fanbase as a possible game-ruining move at the time, and Jason probably brags to confessional about how he just saved himself, even though it was really Tai and Aubry’s doing. Apart from this, though, our penultimate episode doesn’t change much. Joe probably still wins reward, and while he may take Tai rather than Cydney with him (and even that’s not guaranteed), this does not change him eating too much meat on reward, and getting evacuated as a result. Really, all that we can guarantee changes is that Aubry looks an even bigger fool going into the finale, noting in confessional that not voting out Jason may have been her biggest mistake, now that he’s guaranteed a spot in the final four.
Now, there is one possible change that could shape how things go, which is the aforementioned who Joe chooses to take on reward. Nothing really changes if he takes Cydney, and she and Aubry patch things up on reward. If Joe is still in the mindset of “No trust with Cydney” from the last vote, though, I could see him taking Tai. If so, this raises the possibility that Cydney, burned from the last vote, makes amends with Jason. In the Aubry/Michele debate in our timeline, Cydney often gets left by the wayside, despite being an excellent strategist and key player in the dominant alliance. True, she wasn’t beating either of our two heroines, given how many bridges she burned, but still, she deserves respect. I could see her trying to worm her way back in with Jason, especially if she believed that Aubry had fully turned against her, and not just wanted to break up her bond with Michele. Whether it would work is another matter. Jason strikes me as the type to hold a grudge, and I’m not sure he’d be open to anything Cydney had to say. True, you could argue he has few options, but I could see him believing he could just immunity his way to the end from here.
All this to say that while I acknowledge another possibility is available, I suspect Cydney tries to work her way back in with Aubry, having little choice otherwise. Fortunately for her, Jason is still considered the bigger target, and is in for a round of bad luck. I don’t see him winning the final four immunity, given how tricky that puzzle was, meaning Tai is the most likely winner. Sadly, we do miss out on Michele’s kicking of the puzzle, so that’s one downgrade. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Jason, without immunity, goes at final four. Given that he’s the villain of the season, even in this timeline, there is much rejoicing from the audience.
Of course, this leads us to the challenge at the final three. It’s certainly possible that, unless Cydney wins, Aubry goes to the end, so I could see the season following “Survivor Cagayan” even more closely, and going for a final two here. On the other hand, I don’t think production wants to risk even that, so we probably still have our “Juror Removal” twist and a final three there. Fittingly, this final three is one “Brain”, one “Brawn”, and one “Beauty”, a fun bit of symmetry.
Given how close Aubry came in that challenge, coupled with it not playing to Sydney’s strengths, I’d say Aubry is probably the winner of the challenge. It would be easy to say she just votes Scot off the jury, since that’s what she wanted in our timeline, but in this timeline, I think she goes for Julia. Also a person guaranteed not to vote for her, but more so than Scot in this timeline. Scot doesn’t like anybody on this final three. He doesn’t want to vote for any of them. Yet, since Aubry burned him the least directly out of those left, I could see her thinking she has a shot at his vote. And if she doesn’t, well, Julia was never going to vote for her either, so it all evens out anyway.
Perhaps controversial these days, but I’m inclined to say that Aubry wins in this final three regardless of who she gets rid of. She has three votes guaranteed on this jury (Neal, Nick, and Joe), and while she definitely has two votes guaranteed against her (Michele and Debbie), I think she has a chance at at least Jason’s vote. After all, if he and Cydney didn’t mend their relationship, then we know from our timeline that Jason was rooting against Cydney, and Tai directly betrayed him on the Scot boot. Jason may not care for Aubry, but she’s the least objectionable out of the three. Add onto that Michele’s excellent Final Tribal performance not being there, and Aubry’s average Final Tribal performance looks a lot better. It may only be 4-3 (depending on who our final jury member is, and how persuadable they actually are), but Aubry comes out on top here.
THE LEGACY
Before we get into how this impacts the view of the season as a whole, let’s talk about future seasons, since really, this changes little. While Jason and Cydney are both bigger, more respected characters, there’s not really a good chance for them to come back. “Survivor Game Changers” is the only full returnee season since then, and I don’t see them nixing any of the Kaoh Rong players we got in our timeline. And I don’t see them having more than four from a single season, so that is shot. Aubry’s win doesn’t preclude her coming back, either, since winners were ok that season.
That said, her win DOES torpedo her chances, and I’d say Aubry is maybe even first out of this season in this timeline. One of the reasons I will defend Aubry’s game on Game Changers is that, while she never had any real power, the fact that she even MADE IT that far is impressive. Game Changers, like “Survivor All-Stars” before it, had an anti-winner bias. Less because “They already got money”, and more because “They’re the biggest threats.” This justification led to Aubry being lumped in this group in our timeline, with no less than the Queen herself, Sandra Diaz-Twine, wanting her gone. After all, the prevailing wisdom at the time was “Aubry should have won.” Partly by good swap luck, and partly by her own guile, Aubry making it as far as she did, power or no, was nothing short of a miracle, and her game that season deserves respect. But with an actual win under her belt? Aubry has no chance of making it far this season.
Of course, this does preclude her from coming back for Edge of Extinction, so she’ll need a replacement. This would seem the place to include Cydney, but it’s only in the last year or two that Cydney has said she’s willing to return. She’s doubtless asked, but I think she declines, for the understandable reason of her body deteriorating from the show not being good for her bodybuilding career. My next thought for who to put in Aubry’s spot was someone cast after her to match her archetype. Hannah Shapiro of “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” and Gabby Pascuzzi of “Survivor David vs. Goliath” would probably be the top candidates in that regard. However, I ended up deciding that neither would go, as the former has stated she won’t play again, while the latter, having just come from the same filming cycle, would be unfamiliar to the fans that season. She would basically get the same reaction from the players as Amanda on “Survivor Micronesia”, and I don’t think production wants that again.
No, I think Aubry’s open spot here gives Chrissy Hoffbeck (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) her second shot. While not the “nerd” archetype that Aubry has, Chrissy still gets the “offbeat choice” niche, while still being a favorite who is known to the fans. Does this change the season drastically? Eh, probably not. While Chrissy might make it farther than Aubry does in our timeline, if only by virtue of actually playing an idol if she finds it, the anti-returnee sentiment on this season was too strong, and we still probably get our unsatisfying Chris win here. The one upside is that there is no “Drive Aubry away from the fanbase by personally attacking her for a bad game decision”, meaning we have a more active online Aubry in this timeline, for which I, for one, am eternally grateful. Seriously, fanbase, shame on you for how you acted toward her. Agree or disagree with her, what you did is not ok.
While Aubry’s win precludes her from appearing on Edge of Extinction, it puts her in the running for Winners at War. Given that she’s a relatively recent, popular winner at this point, I don’t see her not coming back. We don’t even have to speculate about who she replaces, since she just takes the spot Michele had in our timeline. Does Aubry mimic Michele’s placement this season? Probably not. While I am an Aubry fan, I will admit that Michele’s game, while not as fun to watch, is overall smarter in terms of making a deep run. Both play fantastic games that can be winning ones, but run their seasons a hundred times randomized, and Michele’s strategy wins out more often than Aubry’s. Aubry probably goes either after the swap, depending on if she gets a bad draw, or early-ish in the merge if not. Probably around where Adam goes in our timeline is her ceiling, just due to her threat level.
But what of Kaoh Rong as a whole? Well, for what I believe is the first time in the history of these blogs, we actually have a timeline change that RETROACTIVELY changes a season, or at least how it’s presented. Specifically, Aubry’s decision at final six will FORCE the edit to highlight the Cydney/Michele bond a lot more to justify Aubry’s action, which is criticized at the time but in hindsight is seen as a brilliant move. This paints the pair in a different light. For want of a better term, a villainous light. Don’t misunderstand, the pair aren’t the villains of the season; Scot and Jason claimed that title pretty definitively when they started sabotaging the camp. But the pair are presented in a similar way to Ami on “Survivor Vanuatu”. Not bad as people, but shrewd players who are an obstacle to our underdog hero. Thereby de-facto antagonists, if not necessarily villainous. This is why Cydney gets elevated to a higher status in the fandom, though conversely, Michele kind of becomes a footnote.
Of course an Aubry win makes Kaoh Rong work much better as a season, and elevates it to at least near-greatness. I hesitate to give it full greatness, partly taking into account my pro-Aubry bias, and partly because I could see her win being seen as “predictable”, which is often a mark against a season. The main problem with the season in our timeline is that everything in the narrative tells us that Aubry SHOULD win against anyone. I know edgic set up Michele as the winner fairly early, but as someone who was firmly watching at the time, I can tell you the assumption was that Michele won because Aubry got eliminated before the finals. Thus, it still felt wrong when Aubry made finals but lost anyway. There’s a conflict between what we think SHOULD happen narratively, and what ACTUALLY happens. An Aubry win avoids that conflict, and at least for me, makes a much better season as a whole.
Ok, so maybe this was an excuse to give my favorite player a win. I admit to more bias in this blog than perhaps any other. Still, I hope the scenario has been at least semi-plausible and fun for everyone, though! Let me know what scenarios you’d like covered in the future! I’ll happily give credit to anyone who gives me an idea I use. Just post it in the comments section of this blog, or wherever you happened to find this blog. Guidelines for submissions are listed below.
1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season. This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way. Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical. As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog. I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style. Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment. It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…
2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about. Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season. Would it ever happen? No. So there’s no point in writing about it.
3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way. Simply changing up the boot order is not enough. Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both. As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9. I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory. Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched. Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.
In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”. As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:
4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”. From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good. The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of. I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip. Nothing knocking them, of course. I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them. So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.
5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above. I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”. He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add. I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out. Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.
6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect. However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on. You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet. For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Island of the Idols.
As always, our suggestions and feedback are much appreciated. Take care out there, everyone!
-Matt