Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 3: We Have Wormsign!

One of the common criticisms lobbied at new-era “Survivor” is that it’s “Too nice”.  Sometimes related to the lack of drama, sometimes in relation to the backstory segments being too touchy-feely.  This is a criticism that I personally don’t agree with, but after tonight, I think I can see where people are coming from.  Even by my standards, people were a bit too nice.  

Before we delve into the love-fest, though, it’s time for another edition off…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Being honest, I nearly didn’t include this one, since I did touch on the event itself, and this is more of a missed joke opportunity than me neglecting part of the episode.  But I did love the joke, so I’m throwing it in a week late, timing be damned!  Long story short, while I discussed Danny opening the birdcage and getting his idol, and discussed the strategy related to it, I neglected to discuss Danny’s reaction to finding said idol.  The show really IS loosening up in references to past seasons, as Danny gives us the Mike Holloway trademark “Happy Dance” from “Survivor World’s Apart”.  Not that I strongly want that season in particular referenced, but hey, you do you, Danny.  

For all my snark earlier on, “Happiness” is probably too strong a word to describe Tika coming back from Tribal Council.  Yes, Yam Yam and Carolyn do celebrate, but they have the decency to wait until they’re in private, so I won’t hold that against them.  Publicly, they simply call for tribe unity, and state that the vote was not meant to exclude anyone in particular.  The sentiment is publicly echoed, but Sarah, being the person explicitly left out of that last vote, is not buying it.  Since Sarah possesses common sense, she rightly blames Carson, the swing vote, for her position.  Paradoxically, she states she trusts Carson the most, though she mainly uses this as evidence for how good he is at the game, and why she needs to watch out for him.  All conclusions I have to agree with on her end.  

Keeping the happy train going, we cut over to Ratu.  Here, we see that happiness and bad gameplay go hand-in-hand, as Kane, already on the outs, decides to dig himself deeper by singing “O Canada” for his tribe.  Not that he’s a bad singer or his tribe hates it or anything.  No, the problem is that in doing so, Kane outs himself as a Canadian.  This is a problem because, at the time this was filmed, the most two recent winners (that these players saw) were Canadian, meaning being Canadian now makes you a target.  And if you don’t believe players would be so petty as to target someone based on something like nationality, I refer you to the fear that remains to this day of women’s alliances that sprung to great prominence after only ONE successful one.  Unless you’ve got an accent, the only way one would be outed as a Canadian is if there happened to be a spelling challenge, which with the way challenges are being designed these days, seems unlikely.  Might as well minimize your threat level, and say you’re from Wisconsin or something.  

Kane is not just Canadian, though.  No, Kane is a Canadian NERD!  Because that demographic DEFINITELY doesn’t also get targeted on “Survivor”.  In this case, Kane’s nerddom tends towards the “Dungeons and Dragons” side of things, meaning he is very happy to have the sword part of the Immunity Aegislash.  Kane talks about wanting to be the hero of the game, and how it related to the sword.  He does a bit of play-fighting with it in front of the tribe.  Knowing a good opportunity when it drops in their laps, the editing team wisely cues up sound effects in keeping with the motions Kane makes.  I would mock this, but if I’m going to be honest, I would do the exact same thing were I in Kane’s shoes, so no faulting him there.  

Even switching the focus to Brandon does not get us off the happy train.  Brandon goes fishing, and while he’s not getting Rupert Boneham (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) amounts of fish, any food is good food.  He also uses the time to discuss how he doesn’t want to be seen as just a football player, and describes himself as a “Renaissance man”.  While I would dispute some of the things he uses as examples of why he is this way (while using different skill-sets, things like snowboarding and scuba diving are enough in the athletic realm that I would say they do not a Renaissance man make), I cannot deny that cooking and playing piano are pretty far out of the realm of what one would expect the skill set of a professional football player to do, so yeah, he’s got a fair point on this one.  

Soka is probably our least happy tribe out of the three, but I think that’s mostly because Frannie and Matt are monopolizing the happiness for themselves.  We see them going off and flirting with one another yet again.  We don’t dwell on it too long, though, as we instead cut back to camp, where the remaining four are having the obvious conversation of “Hey, shouldn’t we team up against the obvious pair who will never vote for each other?”  Claire in particular is gung-ho on this.  She’s the most pointed in how bad a strategy it is, and dismisses them talking about “Nerd Stuff” like “Star Wars” instead of playing the game.  Ok, I agree it’s bad strategy, but the nerd bashing is low.  In particular, it’s low coming from Claire, who mentioned in her bio that she listens to audiobooks of “The Hunger Games” to go to sleep, which I would say definitely falls into the category of “Nerdy”.  Pot.  Kettle.  Black.  

Danny, however, is going a step farther in the strategizing.  He has taken out the fake coin from the birdcage, presumably replacing it with rocks or something since it still looked full in the shots we saw.  He has wrapped the coin in paper and green string, the paper stating the traditional “Congratulations, you have found a Hidden Immunity Idol” message.  The latter seems odd to me, since from the messages we heard read aloud the ones this season DESCRIBE what the idol looks like, but I’m guessing they included a fake message in there to allow for plays such as this.  All this he has hidden in the roots of a significant-looking tree, because Danny has watched a season of “Survivor” that aired in the past 5 years.  

To top all this off, Danny then eats the part of the note detailing the coin is fake.  A bit over-the-top as a disposal method, and normally I’d say this is at least a foolproof way to prevent someone figuring out your scheme.  However, Carolyn is on this season, and we know from last episode that she’s willing to search that shit.  Danny better hope it passes through quickly.  And to those who ask how it might not pass through that quickly, I would remind you that it took Gervase two weeks on “Survivor Borneo” to have one bowel movement.  Fiber is not high in the diet of these people.  Stuff passes slowly.  

Speaking of stuff passing through, it seems Brandon’s fishing skills are not enough, as they have all collectively decided to eat worms.  Ok, so it’s presented more as a “Get the most out of your experience” event rather than “nourishment”, but still.  Jaime is the main instigator here, but pretty much everyone eats one.  Matthew is the only exception (that we see; he might have eaten one offscreen), making him instantly go up in my estimation.  

This, then segues into Jaime talking about the fun she’s trying to have here.  The earthworm eating is one thing, but it goes further than that.  She gives us what she calls the first “‘Survivor’ Houseplant” by putting some sand and a sapling in a half coconut shell.  Seems kind of pointless, but hey, it is clever and functional, and I suppose you need to do something to pass the time out there.  Props for giving us something we haven’t seen before.  

All this is very much in Jaime’s wheelhouse.  She’s the Plant Mommy, you see.  She even has a necklace to prove her bona fides in this area.  And, despite not eating a worm that we saw, it seems she even has a kinship with Matthew, owing to both of them loving the experience so much, talking with wonder about what they’re looking at as they hike together (Matthew’s arm wisely back in the sling.).  Even if he won’t partake of the worm himself, Matthew will help out Jaime in her worm-eating endeavors.  He points out a muddy patch by the water well where it seems like there might be some good worms.  But it is not worms Jaime finds, but a hidden immunity idol, specifically the one Brandon played in episode 1!  The pair agree to keep this between them, and Jaime talks about how strong this makes their bond, putting both of them in a good position.  

Good scene overall, but I want to give particular props to the producers on this one.  I rag out of love, but it HAS been getting annoying how predictable the “Significant Looking Tree” hiding place has been lately.  While not unheard-of, the water well is at least a variation, so kudos to them for…

KNOCK!  KNOCK!  KNOCK!

(Matt answers door)

MATT: Oh hey, Matthew.  I was wondering when you’d show up.  

MATTHEW: You knew I’d be coming?  

MATT: Eh, sooner or later, some contestant always improbably shows up at my house.  Given that we live in the same metropolitan area, you seemed most likely if I were a betting man.  No airfare to pay.  

MATTHEW: Ah, good deductive skills!  

MATT: So, what specifically brings you here?

MATTHEW: Well, I heard you giving production some credit for the idol hiding spot, so I just wanted to make sure it went where it was due.  

MATT: Meaning?

MATTHEW: That idol’s a fake.  I planted it myself, to help build a bond with Jaime.  I found the real one in…

MATT: Let me guess, a tree?

MATTHEW: Yup.  

MATT: Figures.  When the superfans are more creative than the production team…

MATTHEW: No doubt.  

MATT: Speaking of creative, any chance I could have a go on that backyard plywood snake maze?

MATTHEW: Sure thing, man!

(Several Hours Later)

Ok, well, this blog’s going to be late.  Talking a little more about Matthew’s move here, it is pretty standard in plan, but masterful in execution.  Dude realized there were similar looking beads on the tribe torches, and so chopped some off to use as the fake.  Given that he has the real note, he was able to use that as well.  His misdirection of Jaime seemed very natural, and he mainly used it as a way to secure an ally without giving that ally real power.  A bit cruel to lead her on?  Perhaps, but that’s the game, and given how much of a nice guy Matthew is, it’s nice to know that he CAN be cutthroat when he needs to be.  Certainly makes him go up as a game player in my estimation.  

For as impressive as Matthew’s move was, though, it pales in comparison to the editor’s here.  Based on what we saw, all this plotting and planning of Matthew’s was something that happened some time last episode.  Possibly it happened after the Tika Tribal Council from last episode, but we have no way of knowing for certain.  Either way, it would have been all too easy for them to play this exactly the same way they did Danny’s: Show us all this happening to make a payoff for later.  Now, while I’m the first to complain about the show not adequately foreshadowing stuff, here I’m ok with it.  Unlike the decision as to who gets voted off, this is not something we NEED to hear about ahead of time.  It wasn’t relevant until now, so it wasn’t shown until now.  On top of that, we get emotionally invested, since we were fooled right along with Jaime.  We need SOME foreshadowing for who gets the boot each episode, but for things like idol finds, more of the fooling of the audience, please!

Danny is having less luck with his fake idol.  Soka is doing a big group search for the thing, but no one is looking.  Danny even has to suggest that they check in the roots of significant looking trees, as opposed to just giving them a visual once-over.  I’m with him 100% when he complains about how these people don’t know how to look for idols.  They still aren’t even using sticks!  

Eventually, Matt finds the coin, and falls for it hook, line, and sinker.  He’s more subtle about hiding it than Brandon was in episode 1, but since Danny saw him nearby, he still figures it out.  Danny then proceeds to out Matt in front of everyone, because you know, the target just wasn’t big enough on Matt’s back.  He does use it to bond with Matt, which I can support.  His plan may have backfired, however.  Matt was a target already, as we saw, but with him having what most believe to be an idol, he’s now less safe to vote for.  The majority have enough votes to do a split, it’s true, but then the whole endeavor is largely pointless unless you go for Frannie on the re-vote.  Moreover, it might make people reconsider their allegiances.  Josh (yes, I’m sure there’s a Josh on this season) says that with Matt no longer being a safe vote, he might have to work with him instead of against him.  Brilliant play, Danny!  Take the target off of someone who wasn’t yourself, and leave it to an open field that includes yourself!

Also, can we just take a minute to be sorry for Matt?  Poor guy is on the outs of his tribe due to playing with his heart more than his head, loses his first two votes of the season (partially not his fault, as well), then gets his first piece of good luck in finding an idol, only for that idol to be a fake.  I know Spencer Bledsoe (“Survivor Cagayan”) is the show’s go-to Charlie Brown character, but I think Matt surpasses him as of this episode.  Unfortunately, unlike Spencer where it was kind of cathartic for him to get repeatedly denied given how arrogant he was at the start, I just feel back for Matt.  He did little to deserve this (the second vote loss was all him, though, and the pairing off with Frannie is 100% on him), and seems like a pretty nice, humble guy.  Just overall much less satisfying to see him get repeatedly screwed like this.  

I did say this was the happy episode, right?  Tika is here to bring us back to that vibe.  The tribe as a whole gets along, everyone says so!  When Yam Yam brings up a fear that his snoring will lead to him getting voted out, everyone (particularly Carolyn) emphatically denies this will happen.  Pretty much everyone gets a confessional about how well they gel; even Sarah gets in on the action.  She’s the only one who even mildly harshes the vibe, though.  She notes she’s still on the bottom, and while she is still trying to find an “in”, most of her hope rests on the tribe winning immunity.  A tall order, she tells us, unless the challenge is tailor-made for their tribe.  

Luckily for Sarah, this challenge ends in a puzzle, which seems to be Tika’s specialty.  Four tribe members start in the water, pushing a large hollow crate to the underside of two poles, where one tribe member releases a key from a spring by climbing on top of such a box.  Once ashore, they dig under a log and unlock a platform.  There, they must stack boxes with colored sides so that no side has a duplicate color.  The first teams to do so win immunity, varying amounts of fruit and tools (depending on if they get first or second place), and in the case of Tika, flint.   Losers have Tribal Council and the loss of flint awaiting them.  For all that this is the generic “Obstacle course followed by puzzle” we’ve come to know and loathe, this one at least has a cool new element in rolling the crate through the water.  It’s something we’ve not seen in a challenge on US “Survivor” at least (it may have come up on an international version; I don’t know), and helps make the challenge more memorable than your average outing.  

For all that I’ve praised Matthew this episode, I do have to ask: WHY ARE YOU THE ONE CLIMBING ON TOP OF THE CRATE?  Sitting out Lauren rather than yourself I get.  The shoulder seems to be healing, and Lauren has proven to be not so good in the water, which makes a significant portion of this challenge.  But what do you bring to crate climbing?  This is not a particularly skill-based part of the challenge.  All you need is height, where both Kane and Brandon have you beat.  Jaime may be shorter, but she’s also lighter, and therefore less likely to GRIEVOUSLY INJURE HERSELF IF SHE FALLS, UNLIKE YOU!  I’m willing to cut you some slack since your shoulder seems mostly better and you’re keeping it in the sling outside challenges (though you’ll note it does hurt again during the digging portion, though), but maybe DON’T do the riskiest portion of the challenge where you bring nothing particularly special to the table?  

Eh, I shouldn’t be worried, though.  There’s decent mystery as to who will lose between Soka and Tika, but Ratu has had basically no strategy talk outside the one scene between Matthew and Jaime.  Even that didn’t touch on targets, so it’s hard to count that.  And yep, Ratu comes in first place.  The race between Soka and Tika is tighter.  Soka, unsurprisingly given their challenge prowess, takes an early lead, helped by Tika’s box going off-course.  All are in it on the puzzle, though, and that’s where Tika shines.  When Ratu finishes first, both sides unabashedly go over to look.  This, combined with Tika’s general puzzle prowess, leads to them getting second place.  Probably the most obvious outcome (between Sarah’s comment about needing a miracle, and Soka having by far the most strategizing this episode, they were probably favored to lose), but also the most intriguing.  It’s always nice when there isn’t one dominant tribe and we get to see dynamics in all three.  Nicely reminiscent of “Survivor 42”, and given that I maintain at this point it’s the best season to come along since “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, I’m not going to complain.  

Having conspired to make Matt as big a target as possible, once they’re all back at camp, Danny sets about targeting… Claire, for sitting out every challenge so far, heavily implying that she’s the weakest tribe member they have.  Not that I don’t see the logic, but then what was the point of going so hard against Matt?  By making it look like he has an idol (since only Danny knows it’s a fake, and revealing it as such to everyone else would put suspicion on him), you now throw out an alternate target possibility, which means you are potentially another possibility!  Sure enough, Frannie is not 100% on board with this plan, and informs Claire that she’s being targeted.  And who does Claire get mad at for this?  Danny and Josh.  True, the alternate target ultimately settles on Josh rather than Danny, but this could EASILY have backfired.  Don’t get me wrong, he pulled the move itself off masterfully, but to what end?  Maybe he can turn this around to a long-term gain, but for now, it seems pointless at best.  

Why is Josh being targeted, you ask?  According to Heidi, our swing vote for tonight, he’s “shifty”.  Not that we’ve seen evidence of that, but again, there’s barely any evidence of Josh on this season.  More logically, Heidi notes that she’s closer with Claire than Josh, but Clair is more of a challenge hinderance.  With Danny saying he’ll go with whatever Heidi wants, Heidi now has the power.  Yes, someone we BARELY remember more than Josh, and that’s mostly because she’s the one who first started fire for the tribe.  

I kid, I kid.  Heidi is in a good position here.  Not targeted at all, and no matter the outcome, has the twosome of Matt and Frannie she can target with whatever three are left.  On the whole, I would say it’s slightly smarter for her to keep Claire around, since she says she’s closer with her, as opposed to being the third with Danny and Josh.  Gives her more decision-making power.  Not to mention, I don’t buy the idea of “addition by subtraction”, wherein a tribe gets better in challenges by losing someone.  Particularly in this case, where the tribe will still be able to sit one person out, given that Tika is down to 4 people.  Wouldn’t fault either move, though.  

Not content with asking the players for metaphors, Probst is now supplying the metaphors himself!  He compares the game to the gargoyle above the “Walk of Shame”, in what may be the most forced metaphor this show has ever seen.  Probst, drop the metaphors overall, but ESPECIALLY drop your own.  

For all my snark, this is actually a pretty good Tribal Council.  Discussion is, for once, centered on the dynamics of the tribe, and in particular challenge strength vs. loyalty.  I will also give Claire credit that she argues effectively for why she should stay, noting that “Tribe Strength” doesn’t just mean challenge strength, but loyalty.  How she has this over Josh, I don’t know, but it’s about the most effective argument she can make.  Also, kudos to Heidi’s poker face.  When Claire asks her is she’s changed her mind from earlier that day, Heidi stone-cold says she hasn’t, despite the fact that she’s going to vote for Claire momentarily.  None of this is the stuff of legend, but its all well-done and engaging, which I’ll take.  

Claire plays her shot in the dark despite Heidi’s poker face, and I really can’t fault Claire here.  Since Matt can’t vote, it’s up to Frannie, Heidi, and Danny who will go home.  If they vote the way Claire wants, her vote doesn’t matter.  If they don’t, this is her only chance of survival.  More justified than Jaime’s play in episode 1, but also less successful.  Claire is not safe, and then voted out unanimously.  I am really sorry to see her go.  A pre-season winner pick leaving is never easy, and nerd-bashing aside, I did really like Claire.  She had good strategy for the most part, and it hurts to only participate in one challenge (and an abbreviated reward challenge at that) before leaving.  About the only good thing about this is that Josh gets more screen time hopefully, since it would have been a low blow for him to leave without us really getting to know him.  

While perhaps not reaching the heights of the first two episodes, this one still holds up.  A bit touchy-feely maybe, but fun nonetheless, with clear dynamics and good strategy.  So far, liking the season!

The spice must flow.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 11: Nothingburger

I’ll admit, I’ve gone fairly esoteric with a lot of the blog titles this season.  Stuff that requires explanation in the opening paragraph to make sense.  But I think this title probably stands on its own, and requires no explanation.  As such, I find myself with a lot of free space.  Space probably best filled with another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Pretty minor one this time, but a missed joke opportunity still counts.  Prior to the immunity challenge last episode, I failed to mention a brief exchange wherein Karla complimented Jeff’s black shirt.  Jeff played it up, and proceeded to talk back a bit, bordering on flirting.  Now, if we’re being real, this was just some witty show banter.  A friendly ribbing, nothing more.  Yet, snarky blogger that I am, I must play it up as though it were more serious.  Don’t flirt with Karla, Probst.  A, you’re married, B, Karla’s married, and C, Karla doesn’t swing that way anyway.  

Diving into ACTUAL content, we have our fallout from Tribal Council, and unsurprisingly, Sami is the one driving it, given that he was left out of the last vote.  As he notes, this is unusual for him.  To his credit, I will say that Sami has the correct attitude about being left out.  He rightly acknowledges it’s an issue, and he needs to do work to correct it.  

The flaw for Sami is that he’s terrible at correcting it.  The stray Karla vote is at the top of everyone’s minds, particularly Karla, and they want to know who did it.  Rather than try and pin it on Noelle, who isn’t there to defend herself, Sami tries to pin it on Gabler.  If he needs to pin it on someone still in the game, Gabler is probably the best choice (Cassidy, Jesse, or Cody are implausible, and Sami probably still wants to be good with Owen), but no one buys it.  Sami insists it’s Gabler for a bit, before realizing this is a losing avenue, and so just comes clean to everyone.  Congratulations, Sami!  You’ve now proven you can’t be trusted, and don’t even get the brownie points of owning your mistake!

Sami is not the only one having a bad day, however.  Gabler talks to Owen about a way to get both of them to the end, but Owen is too busy having a pity party to notice.  He laments that he hasn’t voted correctly since the merge, which I have to point out is SLIGHTLY incorrect on his part.  He did vote correctly on the Jeanine boot, though I can still sympathize as people TRIED to leave him out of that one.  Owen compares himself to Charlie Brown, eternally getting the football pulled away from him.  Owen evidently fails to remember that Spencer Bledsoe (“Survivor Cagayan”) has already claimed the title of this show’s Charlie Brown.  Given some of the things Spencer has said post-appearance however… Yeah, I’d much rather Owen be the remembered one as well.  

Morning comes, and we see why Sami’s letter from home was not highlighted last episode.  They were saving it for here!  Doesn’t excuse not highlighting Noelle’s, but hey, it’s something.  Sami uses his letter for inspiration to keep fighting, and talks about the bond he has with his family, complete with adorable pictures of him with them.  Cute and all, but this works about as well as Xander’s flashback in the finale of “Survivor 41”: Trying too hard.  

Cheesy as it is, Sami’s prayers get answered when Karla still deigns to talk strategy with him.  He puts a bug in her ear about Cassidy spilling the news about her idol.  How does Cassidy know about the idol?  Karla told her, of course!  Quite a while ago, if the flashback is to be believed!  Gee, I can totally see why that bit of information was left on the cutting-room floor until now!  Not like it was IMPORTANT to understand the strategy or anything!  In any case, Karla does get a bit paranoid about Cassidy saying something she shouldn’t.  The pair talk, and appear to be good for now, but Karla admits it may be time to cut Cassidy.  

The best I can say for this idea is that Karla is right that for her game, Cassidy will need to go at some point.  As long as both are in the game, they’ll be seen as a pair, and keep being targeted.  Plus, Cassidy can then steal credit for some of Karla’s ideas.  But the fact is, time is nigh to move against the pair of Jesse/Cody.  They have two idols (though admittedly they only know about one), and have yet to be targeted, despite being as threatening a pair as Cassidy/Karla.  Time is running out before they just get a free pass to the finals.  Strike while you can, because you may not get another chance.  

Say what you will about this season, but the players on this cast are really nice.  Look, they’re all enjoying a quiet moment watching the sun rise!  Of course, such mushiness makes the producers gag, so they throw yet ANOTHER advantage into the mix.  In this case, there’s a note delivered by boat that basically says “There’s an advantage in the jungle, go find it.” and everyone takes off running.  Credit where it’s due, the producers actually take the time to HIDE this one decently well.  Yeah, it’s still in a tree, but it’s a NORMAL-LOOKING tree, not a distinctive one.  Further, the color of the wrapping matches the tree bark pretty closely, and the green logo could easily be mistaken for lichen at a distance.  Up close, yeah, it sticks out, but if someone was just running past, I can’t blame people for missing it.  Plus, it leads to a hilarious montage of people passing right by it without realizing.  

In the end, it is a casual glance from Cody while talking with Gabler that finds the advantage.  Cody puts on a good poker face, casually brings his hand up the tree, and manages to get away without being caught.  The advantage itself is actually pretty good overall.  Basically, Cody is informed that the next immunity challenge will the one where everyone lies under a metal grate in the ocean while the tide comes in.  Cody is allowed to bet on a winner, and if he guesses right, he gets immunity as well.  Oddly, no consequence in the event he guesses wrong.  Guess we’re just throwing out that part of the new era now?  

In concept, this is a great advantage.  It relies on people having a solid understanding of each person’s strengths, while not being game-breaking should someone be good at this particular task.  That said, there’s a couple of tweaks that it could use, as right now it’s still a LITTLE too powerful.  One of those tweaks actually happens immediately, and is more a problem for the audience than for the advantage itself.  We get to see who Cody wrote down.  He chooses Owen, which I can’t fault, but I don’t feel we should have seen him write the name down.  

The reason why becomes clear once we get to the challenge.  Cody is forced to hand the advantage over to Probst, who explains that who Cody bet on will be revealed after the votes are cast, but before they’re read.  This is the element that makes this advantage a little too powerful, at least for me.  It effectively gives the finder immunity, if no one knows whether they bet correctly or not.  Most sensible players will just avoid that person on principle, meaning Cody is for all intents and purposes immune no matter what.  It still requires effort to maintain the bluff, I suppose, but it doesn’t seem like that much effort in the aggregate.  This is also why we saw who Cody wrote down.  He was never going to be targeted with the way this advantage played out, so might as well let the audience in on his thoughts.  But for me, it would have been more fun to keep Cody’s status a mystery, along with the audience.  Let us find out with the players if Cody is safe or not.  A red herring, sure, but a fun red herring.  

Before finding out if Cody bet correctly, let us take a moment to discuss the challenge.  As Probst says, in one of his rare JUSTIFIED moments of hyperbole, this challenge is a fan-favorite.  Comes from a beloved season, can be psychologically scarring, what’s not to love?  And I will say, it makes a nice change of pace from the usual endurance challenge.  Sadly, I must give a dissenting opinion, as this challenge has never really done it for me.  I think this issue is that I’m someone who’s very comfortable in the water, and got used to getting dunked against my will when playing with my father in the pool.  Thus, keeping calm when water flows over your head doesn’t seem all that bothersome to me.  

Regarding the actual run of the challenge, we get to see some really creative strategies this time.  Cassidy in particular deserves a shout-out for trying to shove her entire body through the grate!  In the end, however, both Owen and Karla keep so calm that the tide actually starts receding again!  You may remember that this challenge originally comes from “Survivor Palau”.  You may also remember that the final immunity challenge that season lasted nearly twelve hours, far longer than production planned.  

Yeah, those days are gone.  Probst calls the challenge there, awarding both immunity.  Cheap!  Ok, ok, if I’m going to be fair, it kind of makes sense, given the show would need to wait for the tide to come in AGAIN, for what might just be the same outcome over and over.  They do have a schedule to keep.  Can’t call it the toughest iteration of the show if you’re gonna cop out like this though.  

So yeah, Cody’s immune.  Karla and Owen are immune.  There are three idols left in the game.  We have the potential for yet ANOTHER Advantagegeddon this episode.  Because that’s definitely what the viewing public want.  

Thankfully these people seem unlikely to play their idols, and thus the targeting begins.  Cassidy is upset at trying yet failing in the challenge, but Owen comforts her with a target on Sami.  Most people seem on board with this, but Karla, paranoid about knowledge of her idol being spread, still wants to go for Cassidy.  Most other people are initially for this, but then Jesse thinks “Hey, what if we DID go for Sami.”  And, messy as he plays, it kind of makes sense.  While we the audience see Sami as a messy player, he does give a good performance in front of the jury.  You’ll not the nods and words of assent basically every time Sami opens his mouth at this Tribal Council.  Even those times where he’s putting his foot in it, he’s getting love from the jury.  Plus, as Jesse notes, Karla will likely vote Cassidy, driving a rift between them.  This sort of argument takes attention off himself and Cody, which can only be good for him.  Cody isn’t entirely convinced, but yeah, of the choices presented, Sami is clearly the superior boot.  We can only hope that Karla sees it to avoid proverbially shooting herself in the foot.  

As is the norm this season, Tribal is a bland, uninteresting affair, save for one more bit of messy gameplay from Sami.  He had talked about using his Shot in the Dark just to be safe.  This in and of itself I have no fault with.  Either people are telling Sami the truth, and his vote doesn’t matter, in which case he loses almost nothing, or people are lying to Sami, and he may as well make the one remaining move he has to protect himself.  What I CAN fault him for is announcing this intention at Tribal Council.  Sami, have you never heard of a poker face?  Keeping things close to your chest?  Alerting people to your plans is the way your plans go awry!

The only way this makes sense is if Sami was going for a bluff; not actually intending to play said Shot in the Dark.  For a moment, when we see him make a big gesture in the voting booth, but not actually play the thing, it seems like this might be the route he’s going.  But no, he played it.  And to no affect, either.  Whoopee.  I don’t hate the Shot in the Dark for what it is, but it has been ineffectual at best every time it comes up.  

Sami did need to play it, however, as he was going home.  Karla even came to her senses and voted him out, thus avoiding the pitfall set up by Jesse.  I can’t say I’m too sorry to see him go.  His gameplay was not the worst, but like I said, messy.  I also grew tired of him constantly talking about his age.  While by no means the nadir of characters, even on this season alone, there just wasn’t much more to him that we didn’t already see.  Not to rag on the guy too much, though.  He goes out with a lot of class, congratulating everyone and inviting them to visit him in Vegas.  Maybe not the best player, but definitely a good dude overall.  

Frankly, the title of this blog tells you my thoughts on the episode.  Nothing egregiously bad happens.  Hell, I even enjoyed the twist they introduced, even if it does need a few tweaks.  But man, they had nothing to work with.  An obvious boot, little to no strategy advancement, and now it even seems like an obvious outcome.  With his two idols, Jesse, I would argue the biggest jury threat, now has a free pass to the final four.  True, he could still lose fire-making, but I don’t see that happening.  There are worlds where Jesse doesn’t win, but for those, he needed to be voted out, or at least weakened, by now.  Jesse has played a good game, and it would make this blog 3 for 3 in the new era for winner picks, but man, it would be so predictable, a lot of the fun would be gone.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Cagayan” Episode 11: Don’t Count on it

Tonight’s episode is a bit of an odd duck in the “Survivor” world.  You may have noticed that my liking or disliking of episodes is heavily dependent on the predictability of the episode.  I might have something to help redeem the episode, but very rarely does a predictable episode get more than an “ok” from me.  This episode, however, was incredibly predictable in its outcome, perhaps more so than any other, given the mathematical impossibility of any other outcome.  However, the journey of getting there, and the uncertainty of how it would play out, made the episode as enjoyable, if not more enjoyable, than episodes whose results cannot be guessed.  But I get ahead of myself.  If the journey is the best part of this episode, let us begin where all journeys begin: by stepping out the door.

Waiting out there is another edition of:

MATT’S MESS-UP!

I’ll make it quick.  Last episode, when commenting on the auction, I noted that, due to tying for an advantage in the game, Spencer and Tony had to draw rocks to see who got it.  Tony won, leaving Spencer with what I described as “Nothing”.  Strictly speaking, this is not true.  Spencer got a rock.  And so, he joins Charlie Brown of “Peanuts” in the tradition of unsatisfying rewards.

The episode proper starts with Tony asking Kass and Trish if they were offended by his move to vote out Jefra.  Trish, being Trish, says “Of course not.”, and once again proves an intelligent confidant, but a mediocre out and out player.  Kass, on the other hand, tells us in an interview that she’s not pleased.  Wisely, she’s realized that Tony is an inconsistent and paranoid player, and that he’s gone behind her one too many times.  This is smart strategic thinking on Kass’ part, and I’m hopeful that she’ll keep it in confessional, so no one can complain.  Sadly, this is not the case, as Kass turns it back on Tony, pointing out that he’s betrayed her, and is making himself untrustworthy.  It’s not nearly as bad as Jefra’s blowout, but it quickly gets worse.  The next morning, Kass decides to sleep in for once, leaving early risers Tony, Woo, and Spencer to chat.

Now, this is not strictly related to the strategy that comes out here, but I just want to note that Spencer asks Tony how many times he was shot at, a question that only makes sense if Tony has told Spencer he’s a police officer.  Once again, this makes Tony’s “construction worker” lie entirely pointless.  Just throwing that out there, for all you people who STILL insist that Tony is a master strategist.

Back to the important stuff, it seems that Kass is one of these usual early risers, and Tony asks if she is feeling sick.  Kass, who has been listening in secretly, hears this as Tony calling her a bitch.  While I don’t agree with what I’m about to say, the episode paints THIS as the main reason for her going against Tony at this point.  I personally note the NUMBER of interview where she talks about being unable to trust Tony as being the major influence, but it seems the editors do not agree with me.  Also, in another strategic blunder, rather than keep this to herself, and scheme against Tony in the shadows, Kass confronts him directly, which devolves into something of a screaming argument.  Kass also makes it a point to say that this is like what Spencer and Tasha did to her, slighting her behind her back.  Kass, I like you a lot as a player, but imagining slights is not the way to get people to take you seriously.

We leave the fight for commercial, only to come back to… another fight, though a very odd one.  Tony decides to go up to Kass to make amends to keep the alliance together.  It’s notable here that Tony does this on the grounds that he wants to take Kass to the end so he can beat her, something we haven’t heard from him before.  Even in the event of a final 3, this means that Tony is going to have to betray either Woo or Trish, and I don’t think he’s thought of the consequences of doing so.  Again, more evidence that Tony, for all his successes, is not a forward-thinking player, even though his wanting to take someone beatable to the end is forward-thinking… ok, maybe his strategy is just confusing.

Anyway, Tony talks to Kass, who insists that Tony was talking smack about her.  Rather than do something SENSIBLE, like apologize and swear up and down that he’s with her, and maybe, oh, I don’t know, TELL her you want her in the end, Tony instead does what he always does when confronted with someone who refuses to agree with him: get angry.  In that manner, he IS like Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”).  After this strategy SHOCKINGLY gets him nowhere, Tony sulks up to camp, and vents to Trish.  I would just like to point out that in this venting, Tony actually DOES talk smack about Kass.  So, if they were imagined before, they aren’t now.  Tony is still fuming when Kass gets back to camp, and what follows is the “Survivor” equivalent of two kids in the backseat of a car playing “I’m not touching you!”

KASS: Quit acting like a four year old.

TONY: I’m not acting like a four year old, you are!

KASS: No, you are!

TONY: No, you are!

And so ad infinitum.  Neither of them comes off well from this argument, but there are two major facets that will come into play tonight.  Tony goads Kass that if she’s mad at him, vote for him, which Kass swears that she will do.  This gives hope to Spencer and Tasha, while also drives the strategic talk this episode.  The second major thing, and it’s a biggie, is that Tony, in his overconfidence, states that he has the special idol, and explains that it can be played after the vote.  In Tony’s position, this is a STUPID thing to do, as it only makes his allies wary of him.  This means that he was hiding something, and also means that near the end of the game, he’s hard to get rid of, and as he’s the main competition of the alliance at this point, that’s hardly a good thing.  The one saving grace in all this for Tony is that he doesn’t fall for Kass’ calling his bluff and asking him to reveal it, leading many people to believe that his saying that is just him blustering again, and so the fallout is not as bad as it should be.  Still, giving away information when you don’t have to is never a good thing, so it’s still a net loss for Tony.

I just realized.  People are going to use the “No one believes he has the idol” thing as evidence for his stupid moves actually being genius, aren’t they?  Great.  Just great.

So we come to the reward challenge, and … Ok, I’ll give them credit that they’ve given us an ORIGINAL challenge this time, but we’ve only got one more reward challenge after this one.  Could we PLEASE have an actual INDIVIDUAL challenge, rather than a team challenge?  Can’t deny the fun of this one, though.  Basically, each team is given a 5×5 grid of blocks with a face painted on them.  Throwing bags at the grids of the opposite team, they attempt to knock down the face.  The first side to completely knock down a grid stops that portion of the challenge, and things immediately shift over to the puzzle portion of the challenge, where each team has to put together their puzzle, so it looks like it originally did.  The first team to have it solved wins.  We have had demolition challenges before, and we’ve definitely had “throwing stuff at other stuff” before, but those are broad categories, so I don’t begrudge repetition on that level.  On top of that, this is the first time we’re seeing demolition come FIRST in this sort of challenge, and then the building, rather than the usual other way around.  It makes for a nice change, the action is nonstop, and it’s a lot of fun to watch.  I would have the caveat that the puzzle might be too easy to solve, as the blocks would just fall over backward and remain in the correct order.  However, as we’ll soon see, this ends up not being the case, and so I am satisfied.

We end up with Tony, Trish, and Tasha taking on Spencer, Kass, and Woo, a fairly even match.  IT comes down to the puzzle, but despite an early lead, Tasha chokes, and the duo of Spencer and Kass solve the puzzle first to win reward.  And what do they win, exactly?  Well, we haven’t had a heartwarming trip to deliver goodwill supplies since “Survivor Philippines”, which means it’s long overdue.  Spencer, Kass, and Woo get driven to a Filipino school to hand out supplies, say “Hi” to the kids, and end it all with a good, old-fashioned American-Style barbeque.  Not bad, all things considered.

I must say, I simultaneously love and hate this reward.  While I’m all for giving back, and am very happy that “Survivor” often takes time out to help those in need in whatever country they’re in, it does lead to the predictable “Awesome, life changing experience.” interview.

Sure enough, Woo is quick to oblige us this interview, though not after showing off some Harlem Globetrotters skills with a basketball, and tossing it into a crowd of children.  Incidentally, I can’t help but feel that randomly tossing in the basketball was a bad idea.  I can’t help but feel that those kids are going to fight over it, and someone will get hurt.  Still, I give them more credit that Spencer, who changes up the reward somewhat by pointing out that he doesn’t like kids.  Of course, this is done to set up a “Even I was moved” angle, but it does deviate from the norm, albeit in a bit of an ugly way.  Spencer, I can understand not being the biggest fan of kids, but “Little Monsters”, when they’re just happy to see you and you barely even know them?  Loss of respect points!

Woo turns out to be a natural entertainer, and Kass astutely notes that this is the most Woo’s spoken all game.  This, to her mind, makes this the perfect time to strategize, and so once the kids are back in class, things cut to the chase.  Kass and Spencer agree that Tony has far too much power to be allowed to continue in the game, and so they say they’ll make an alliance, pulling Woo on board with them.  Woo, however, seems hesitant, though that’s apparently habitual, according to Spencer.  I read it as Woo trying to make them believe he’s with them without actually offering a guarantee, but of course, Woo can’t pull off something that subtle, and Spencer and Kass see right through him.  However, for the first time in what I can only assume is 20-odd years, the sun-bleached, dusty gears in Woo’s head start turning, and he considers the possibility that maybe, just maybe, turning on Tony is the right thing to do.  Good for you, Woo, maybe you’ll finally get in the game!  For all that I like Woo, I must admit that I agree with Spencer’s assessment of him: his head’s not really in the game.  Spencer helps to quell this supposed hesitancy by offering Woo a final 3 deal, and as we head back to camp, we see that Woo may ACTUALLY mean it!  My jaw literally drops.

Poor Woo, though, is not a good liar.  Trish and Tony have a little chat after Tasha goes to confer with Spencer, and Trish, very smartly points out that if Woo says there was no strategizing, he’s lying.  Woo then comes up, and amazingly avoids either pitfall of saying there was no strategy, or telling Tony exactly what happened, but instead talks about how Spencer wants to get rid of Tasha next.  Admittedly, this is a pretty flimsy story, and Tony sees right through it, but for Woo, it’s showing some effort.  He gets a gold star.  What’s aggravating is that, in the hands of a more capable strategist, this lie could have worked.  Tony’s counter to Woo’s version of events, which Woo could not overcome, was that why would Spencer want to get rid of a solid number.  An answer that would make sense would be that Spencer KNOWS Tony would expect that, and so got a final 3 promise from Kass and Woo, and so decided to get rid of Tasha to throw Tony off his game.

Let us not forget the law of challenges: for every original challenge, there must be a repeat in the same episode.  This one is no exception, as the immunity challenge today is the “Count Things For a Combination Lock” challenge from “Survivor Exile Island”.  There’s really nothing to describe beyond that, except for the fact that unlike other iterations, where the objects have been far apart on a course, these are all six next to each other, a change that I don’t like.  It means less running, more ease on multiple looks, and prevents the strategy I’m amazed people don’t do: If you’re the first one at the obstacle, remove/throw away one of the things you’re counting.  Throws everyone off.  I suspect there’s a rule against it, but it’s never stated explicitly, so I say try it.

However, before we get into the hilarious outcome of the challenge, let’s talk about SEXISM!  It’s a criticism that’s been levied at the show in general, and Jeff Probst in particular, due to favorite castaways usually being men, and those women that are brought back being unmemorable eye candy, at least more so than the men.  The counter to this has been that the attributes that make a good “Survivor” contestant are more generally found in men, and so it’s less sexism than just data.  I’m of the opinion that “Survivor” underutilizes some great female contestants, and so give Probst and the show the benefit of a doubt.  But I’m putting my foot down here, and saying that Probst’s action at the immunity challenge is sexist.  Basically, upon taking immunity from Tasha for the third straight time, Probst notes that she’s one away from breaking the record of most consecutive immunity wins, siting Kelly Wigglesworth’s run of four wins from “Survivor Borneo” as the record.  Except that it isn’t.  If we’re going with consecutive wins, and not total wins over a single season, the record holder is actually Terry Deitz of “Survivor Exile Island” at five.  How is this sexist, you may ask?  Well, I see no reason that Tasha could not be reasonably expected to have gotten five or more consecutive challenge wins (outcome of the episode notwithstanding), and see no reason why her gender is restrictive of this.  For those who point out that competitive sports divide men’s and women’s records, I would like to point out FIRST that I disagree with that idea, and SECOND that in competitive sports, men and women are also divided by LEAGUE.  Technically, the sport they are doing may have been altered, and so comparing records would be a fallacy.  On “Survivor”, men and women run the same challenge, no difference at all.  So, to my mind, there is no REASON to divide records by gender, and it’s doing a disservice to Tasha to suggest that she should only shoot for beating the WOMEN’S record, and not the ALL-TIME record.  Give her credit, she’s damn good at challenges.

For all that I’ve complained about this challenge, I did enjoy it, thanks to its one saving grace: the difficulty level.  While this challenge has always been one of the harder ones, they REALLY ramped up the difficulty this time.  Counting the bamboo sticks in particular, with the way they were laid out, was nothing short of torture, and this is evidenced by this being the distinction of being one of the few challenges that was NOT endurance based to have a time lapse.  In the end, Spencer pulls out a victory, and I’m happy for him.

Wisely, the alliance of Spencer, Woo, Tasha, and Kass all agree to split the vote, just in case Tony isn’t bluffing.  Boys will go for Tony, girls will go for Trish.  If Tony doesn’t pull anything, they go for him, if he does, Trish.  Sound enough strategy normally, but in the one misstep of this episode, we know it won’t work.  The trouble is that Tony’s super special, double chocolate, Tyler Perry Cookie negates any possibility of that strategy working.  All he has to do is nothing, and in the event of a revote, they go for him.  Once Probst says “You need to bring me your torch”, Tony pulls the super special, double chocolate, Tyler Perry cookie, and Tasha goes home anyway.  So, what can make this Tribal Council exciting, if we know for a FACT that Tasha is going home, no matter how the votes go?

CHAOS KASS!  After a long absence, she is back and I am happy because she saved the episode.  After Tony notes that Tasha isn’t scrambling as much as usual, Tasha goes over to ensure Kass’ loyalty.  This is a mark of both the strengths and the weaknesses of Tasha’s game, in my mind.  The positive is that Tasha is talking with Kass, the woman who ruined her game, and therefore someone she has no love for.  That she’s able to pal around with someone to ensure their vote, despite hating them, speaks good volumes.  The problem with Tasha’s game is that she’s not very subtle.  She wears her strategy on her sleeve, and it’s what puts Tony on guard this time around.  It has an additional downside this time, though, as Tasha’s sleeve-strategy involves perpetuation that Tony/Russell Hantz comparison.  Now, normally such a comparison is used in a derogatory way, and that’s definitely how Tasha means it.  Kass, however, remembers a different facet of Russell Hantz, namely the “Jury Suicide” facet of his game, and this makes her reconsider flipping on Tony.  Just to ensure that she’s not doing something stupid, she confers with Woo before heading off to Tribal, though we don’t see the outcome.

It’s another good Tribal tonight, but not for the usual reasons.  Apart from some good back-and-forth between Tasha and Tony, we don’t really get much good wordplay.  Fortunately, we don’t know HOW exactly Tasha is going to go home, but it’s fascinating to debate what method will be used.  Unfortunately for most, the direct method comes out the winner, as Kass decides with Woo to stick with the original plan, and send home Tasha.  For all that her game is not as flawless as some people claim, I did become a fan of her over time, and I’m sorry she’s gone.  She brought a cheerful attitude, a good mind, and for all that she was a bit too up front about how she wanted the game to go, rather than let the game develop as it will, I came to like her.  Tasha, you will be missed.  Hopefully another All-Stars or Fans vs. Favorites will give you another shot.  There is one good aspect to Tasha’s exit, though: the only two women left are the oldest women from the start!  Older women do not get enough love on “Survivor”, and so I’m happy whenever they succeed.

But enough dilly-dally!  I’ve been teasing all night that the journey of how Tasha would be voted out was the most interesting part of the episode, and would help dictate the course of the game.  So, where do I stand?  Was this path the correct one, or a shortcut to disaster?  It’s a bit of a tough call, due to a guaranteed outcome either way, but I’d have to say that no, Kass and Woo should have stuck with Spencer and Tasha.  I understand the argument.  Tony may have some egg on his face, whereas Spencer and Tasha do not, and so would be hard to beat.  However, as someone who does not fully buy the Tony/Russell Hantz comparison, I feel that their reasoning is faulty.  I put it to you that, barring an EXCEPTIONALLY bitter jury, Tony would beat either Woo or Kass.  Thus, for both of them, they need to be seen as not being Tony’s lapdogs, to make moves outside of him.  As it is, they weaken any strategic argument they can put forth.  On top of that, it would have flushed the super special, double chocolate, Tyler Perry cookie, which would only make me happy.

Still, there is ONE good thing to be said for this move: it PROVES that Kass does not simply play based on her emotions, as some have claimed.  Kass HATED Tony.  From the looks of next episode, she STILL hates Tony.  Yet she voted with him because she saw it as her best move.  It may not be the best strategy, in my opinion, but it is strategy, not emotion.  You’ve got to respect that.

Sadly, I believe that next week’s episode may be the worst of the series.  By not flushing Tony’s super special, double chocolate, Tyler Perry cookie, he can guarantee safety for himself and Trish next week, the last week he can possibly play it.  This makes it impossible for anyone to overcome Tony, and this might lead to a boring and predictable conclusion.  Still, stranger things have happened.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.