Well, CBS certainly took their sweet time this year, and also certainly continue to be stingy with the info they give us. Nevertheless, the cast is officially here, so it is time for me to go over each of them, and how I think they’ll do this season. Yes, welcome back once again to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.
Before we get into the cast, one quick bit of business: Amongst the information that CBS refuses to give us is the tribe divisions. That said, as tribe division does have a major impact on one’s chances (but tell me again how luck plays no part on this show), I’ve found a reported leak of tribe divisions, and will be going based off of that. I normally wouldn’t do so, but I’ve come to respect how important knowing said division is, and this leak does line up with what we saw in the preview, so I’ll act as though it is legit. If, for some reason, it is inaccurate, my apologies. That said, let’s dig into this new cast, starting with…
Austin Li Coon (26, Grad Student, Chicago, IL, Reba Tribe): When I first read Austin’s initial profile, I worried that he didn’t know much about the game. He initially listed Owen Knight (“Survivor 43”) as the guy he’s most like, which made me a bit concerned. After all, Owen would have been on his tv VERY recently when Austin was going out to film, so perhaps it was just recency bias. But then he went on to list Wendell Holland (“Survivor Ghost Island”) and Jay Starrett (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) as well, so I’ll give him the benefit of a doubt here. That said, I do feel Austin missed his true closest “Survivor” companion: Woo of “Survivor Cagayan”. And no, I’m not just saying that because the two look like they could be cousins. Dude projects a very laid-back, surfer-bro attitude. Someone who’s there more for the experience than to play the game super-strategically. I mean, the dude literally put Naruto, the anime/manga ninja not known for his decision-making prowess, as his hero. Put cruelly, Austin’s an idiot. That said, he seems like a pretty likable, easygoing guy (he certainly has one of the most relatable pet peeves to date. Banana-flavored candy is an insult to both bananas and candy), so he’s probably a useful idiot. Expect him to be a number in an alliance just happy to go along for the ride, eliminated mid-to-late merge as a challenge threat. He’ll be a bright spot on our screens until then, but not necessarily the smartest.
Dee Valaderes (26, Entrepreneur, Miami, FL, Reba Tribe): So not only are we repeating tribe divisions and colors from “Survivor 43”, but we’re repeating contestants, too? With Bruce from “Survivor 44″ coming back, I had to double-check that this wasn’t Justine Brennan of “Survivor 43”, aka “The Salesperson Cody Insisted Had To Go”. But no, Dee is just a woman who gives off similar energy to her, and thus will probably meet the same fate. Look, don’t get me wrong, there’s not a lot on paper that goes against Dee. Most of her answers are inoffensive, and while I could nitpick things like her wanting to emulate players who made “BIG MOVEZ”, sometimes to their own detriment, that’s getting really nitpicky. No, my call here is 100% vibes. Some people just exude that “sales” energy, and while Dee technically isn’t a salesperson, she’s doubtless had to use similar skills in her career. To her credit, Justine’s vibes in that particular area were low; she just got caught out by someone who was also a salesperson. But only the blind could miss what Dee exudes here, and I bet most people are going to consider her a threat. Luckily for Dee, I don’t see her tribe going to Tribal Council much, and there is one person on her tribe we’ll be getting to who’s a more obvious early target. However, I still say Dee is out at the later pre-merge, maybe early merge if she’s lucky, just because her vibes are too obvious.
Brandon Donlon (26, Content Producer, Sicklerville, NJ, Lolo Tribe): Doubtless those of you who saw the preview remember Brandon. He’s the “My grandfather robbed a bank.” guy. Unfortunately for him, in his bio he stated that getting a root canal was preferable to playing Settlers of Catan, and for this sin, he shall be the first boot.
I kid, I kid. Despite my newfound dislike of the guy for dissing one of my favorite board games, I actually like his odds decently well. Dude knows the game well, and seems to have a good understanding of himself, with apt past player comparisons to the likes of Jonathan Penner (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Mike White (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”). Add onto that a solid challenge-helping package on a tribe that’s going to have some easy early targets, and I don’t see a way Brandon doesn’t make the merge. That said, he does give off that obvious “schemer” look in the way he carries himself and talks, but does have a charm about him. Thus, I’m putting him as a late-merge boot, probably the penultimate episode, when his schemes finally catch up with him. Think a similar fate to Omar on “Survivor 42”. Good, certainly, but not good enough to lower his threat level and pull it all the way. Look for him to be a top contender for a returnee season, though. Dude does give a good confessional.
Emily Flippen (28, Investment Analyst, Laurel, MD, Lolo Tribe): No, that is not a typo. There are, in fact, people on this season who are not exactly 26 years old. Emily is probably my personal favorite of the season, purely on the comparison to Kass McQuillen (“Survivor Cagayan”) alone. Kass remains one of my all-time favorite characters, and somewhat underrated as a strategist (yes, her social graces could leave much to be desired, but I could see where she was coming from, and she had a good BS detector. Plus, her return on “Survivor Cambodia” did show us that she could work in that area as well), so I’m pleased to see she takes the comparison as a compliment. That said, by numbers alone, probably not the comparison you want to be making, Emily. Add onto that the admission that you’ll be making mistakes, and the first concerning pet peeve of the new cast (her pet peeve is basically “everything”), and while we’ll enjoy Emily as a character, I doubt she’ll stick around for too long for us to enjoy. Again, there’s an earlier target on this tribe we haven’t met yet, so unless she costs her tribe a challenge, or they collapse into the disaster tribe of the season, she probably makes the “Earn the Merge” portion. There, however, her personality will probably be too big to ignore, and she’ll be an easy consensus boot, especially if her tribe is large, and therefore easy to target. She could be out earlier in the event she costs her tribe a challenge (she does admit she’s not the best athletically), but for now, this is unfortunately where I’m sticking with her placement. Also, as an aside, can you believe it took US “Survivor” this long to cast an “Emily”?
Brandon “Brando” Meyer (23, Software Developer, Seattle, WA, Belo Tribe): Oh Brando. I hate to repeat myself from the bio I gave Zach Wurtenberger (“Survivor 42”), but I wish you were on a different season or on a different tribe. Dude is open, smart, friendly, surprisingly athletic, all qualities that should work in his favor. Unfortunately for him, I predict there will be a disaster tribe this season, and he’s on it. He does appear to be the brains of his tribe, so expect most challenge wins to come from puzzles completed by him. But he can only take his tribe so far, and as they keep losing, places to hide become fewer and fewer. Put another way, I think he’s smart enough to get in an alliance, but I don’t see him as the driving force. All right for a few votes, but eventually, the alliance will be forced to eat each other pre-merge, and as such, the lieutenant position he would find himself in would be most vulnerable. A late pre-merge boot, but a pre-merge boot nonetheless, and I am sorry for him for his unfortunate tribe placement. With just a few better challenge competitors to start with, dude could run deep.
Hannah Rose (33, Therapist, Baltimore, MD, Lolo Tribe): Before we get into discussing Hannah, I do have to call out “Entertainment Weekly”, here. No one calls it “Baltimore City, Maryland”. It’s just “Baltimore”. “Balmer” if you want to do it in the Maryland accent. Drop the “city”, it’s already implied.
Anyway, onto Hannah yourself, she can basically be described, relating to “Survivor 44”, as “Carolyn-lite”. Tattoed blonde therapist? Check. Manic energy? Check. Looking for authenticity? Check. Now, with how Carolyn did, you might think this would bode well for her. But backing all this up, Carolyn at least had experience with online reality games to back up her claims of being able to read the room. Hannah makes these same claims, but with nothing to back them up, and her REALLY feeling like a rehash of a character we’ve seen, if she loses a challenge, I see her going out. Not to mention therapists who aren’t Denise Stapely (“Survivor Philippines”) tend not to do well in the game for some reason. Add onto that another concerning set of pet peeves (loud chewers and narcissists), and I peg Hannah as a pre-merge boot. Ironically, despite a memorable personality, she’ll be forgettable just because Carolyn was on so recently, and will kind of dominate the character space for a bit. It’s a shame, too. First player from Baltimore, my hometown, and the only one of this cast to admit a love for Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”). I kind of like her a lot. But unless her tribe outright NEVER loses (which I doubt), she’s out pre-merge.
Bruce Perreault (47, Insurance Agent, Warwick, RI, BeloTribe): Here he is, Bruce from “Survivor 44”. Probably the most heavily anticipated contestant of the season. I’m glad he gets a chance to actually play the game this time, though I do question a bit the wisdom of having him be the ONLY returnee. On the one hand, it wouldn’t be fair to have him pull a Caleb Reynolds on “Survivor Game Changers”, and be brought back with a bunch of other players, only to be thoroughly outclassed and have no real shot. On the other hand, having him be the only returnee makes him stand out, and standing out early on is an easy way to get a target. That said, this is the era of “Touchy, Feely Survivor”, where everyone wants to be nice, and given Bruce’s obvious overall experience, I doubt being a returnee will affect his placement too much.
No, Bruce will be out early for OTHER reasons. Partly it’s the “disaster tribe” theory I spoke of earlier, but it’s also an age thing. I feel like I say this every season nowadays, but this season skews YOUNG. I believe I read that the average age on this cast is 29. Not a bunch of fresh-faced babes, but definitely outside Bruce’s target range, and when you consider that Bruce is one of only two people in his 40’s (and the only one in his 40’s on this tribe), there’s just going to be a connection issue. Bruce’s story, and his willingness to go all-out in challenges, mean he probably isn’t the very first boot, but unless his tribe can win a lot, I just don’t see him connecting with this group, and he’s out somewhere in the early-to-mid pre-merge. Sorry, man. At least you’ll get to see Tribal Council this time.
Janani “J. Maya” Krishnan-Jha (24, Singer, Los Angeles, CA, Reba Tribe): Hoo boy, it’s tough when they don’t specify whether someone is going by their given name or their stage name. Since they made a point to mention it, I’ll stick with J. Maya for now, but I reserve the right to change it if that’s not how her chyron refers to her later on. J. Maya certainly wins the award for the wordiest bio of the bunch, though weirdly it doesn’t feel like she says much of substance in it. Sort of a commentary on influencer/internet sensation culture in general when you think about it. Not to say that I dislike her; she definitely has her good moments. One of the nice nuggets I got out of her bio was her respect for her mountaineering grandmother. Not sure how much it’ll help her in the game of “Survivor”, but it’s nice to see, and a cool shout-out. I know from expanded media that she also won a competition centered around making puns, which again, not really relevant to the game, but awesome nonetheless. Apart from possible wordiness, there’s not really anything in her bio that goes against J. Maya, so I’ll give her a fairly average rating. Barring her turning out to be a major challenge sink, expect her to be around until the merge at least, probably going out in the mid-to-late merge by trying to make a big move and getting called out for playing too hard, too fast. If she makes puns throughout the game, however, I at least will enjoy the time she’s there.
Drew Basile (23, Grad Student, Philadelphia, PA, Reba Tribe): Say what you will about Drew, but he knows himself very well. Dude screams “nerd” with every orifice of his being, and owns it, openly comparing himself to the likes of Cochran (“Survivor South Pacific”) and Ryan Ulrich (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”). The latter I would say is a fairly deep cut for “Survivor” lore (not to say that the season itself is forgotten, but conversation seems to center around Ben and Chrissy), so clearly this guy knows his stuff. It’s most unfortunate for him that he’s coming hot on the heels of Carson Garrett (“Survivor 44”). Now, I doubt that our other players this season have seen ALL of that season, so they may not have seen Carson’s talent with puzzles play out. But they definitely saw some of that season (Carolyn gets referenced in at least one bio), and Carson’s 3-D printing shenanigans were referenced in the first episode. Top that off with him wanting to play fast from the get-go per the season preview, and you’ve got a receipt for a super-fan ready to play their way right out of the game. Drew is lucky he’s not on the disaster tribe, or he’d be out super early. As it stands, I mark him an early-to-mid merge boot for overplaying his hand. Again, probably a fun watch, but a flameout in the game almost certainly.
Julie Alley (49, Estate Attorney, Brentwood, TN, Reba Tribe): I hope you like “Survivor Cambodia”, or at least the phrase “Second Chance”, because Julie will be saying it nonstop for the entirety of her screen time. From said season being referenced repeatedly by her, to her talking about how she took a second chance in life by changing careers at a (relatively) older age, you can bet this is going to come up a lot. Thankfully it won’t get old, but unfortunately for Julie, that’s because I have her pegged as the first boot. There’s just too many factors working against her for me to say otherwise. The oldest woman on a tribe is always going to have an uphill battle, especially in this day and age where tribe swaps are a rarity, and so challenge strength becomes more paramount as a factor. This season will be particularly pronounced, since as mentioned, average age is 29. The only person even really close to her age is Bruce, who’s on another tribe. Almost makes you think she was put on so Bruce wasn’t the oldest player this season. Sprinkle on the “Second Chance” rhetoric that I can see getting old real fast, and unless she’s not nearly as much of a challenge sink as she appears, or can form bonds better than she’s indicated with her bio, she’s toast. I’m happy she’s successful in real life, but I don’t see that translating to “Survivor”.
Jake O’Kane (26, Attorney, Boston, MA, Belo Tribe): Say what you will about this cast, but for the most part, there’s been some meaty stuff to talk about with them. No truly generic characters in the bunch. Jake is the exception to that. Surprising, given that he had one of the more memorable lines from the season preview (about moving out of his grandma’s house if he wins), and maybe he works better on tv. But man, his bio just went in one eye and out the other, leaving basically no impact. He’s fine. What he says is fine. Pretty boilerplate stuff about his skills. Inoffensive, but not leaving an impact. Weirdly, BECAUSE he’s so inoffensive, and seems like he’ll do ok in challenges, I expect Jake to actually survive a good while despite being on the disaster tribe. The strength of being kind of generic is that you can chameleon your way in with most groups. If Jake has even the barest game smarts, and doesn’t sink the tribe in challenges, he should do fine. I won’t put him as a winner pick proper, since I worry he lacks the killer instinct he needs to strike when the time is right, but he’s definitely in my unofficial “dark horse” slot for the season. I see him making the finale, the everyone says “Oh, right, he’s still here and a threat”, and gets booted. Decent placement, but could be better.
Katurah Topps (35, Civil Rights Attorney, Brooklyn, NY, Belo Tribe): The other person I expect to survive the disaster tribe, Katurah edges out Jake to be one of my two proper winner picks for the season. This is odd because there are a couple of red flags in her bio. Her pet peeves are “slow walkers, slow talkers, and people who ooze privilege”, all traits she has at least a decent chance of encountering on the show. She also talks about moving from a deprived upbringing to become the successful attorney she is today. beautiful to read about, but I can see coming across as self-righteous or as a major jury threat. Worth mentioning as well that she’s technically on the “older” end of the spectrum age-wise, but that’s more a mark of this season being young-skewed that her being “older”, and she seems to have the physical fitness to help counteract any negative age perceptions. All that said, her experience in multiple worlds I think will give her an edge. If she’s grown up in poverty, she likely knows life on the streets and how to navigate that. But she can also move in the privileged attorney circle with at least some comfort. Put those skills to use on a tribe in desperate need of command, and you’ve got a recipe for someone surviving the decimation of their own tribe. Come the merge, she’s then in the enviable swing vote position, and based on her qualifications, she’s shrewd enough to ride that out all the way to the end. Add in some good oration at Final Tribal, and you might as well just write her the check.
Kaleb Gebrewold (29, Software Sales, Vancouver, BC, Lolo Tribe): Our Canadian representative for the season, and the first from British Columbia! Dude just seems like a nice guy all around, and I did get a kick out of him using “golden retriever” as an adjective to describe himself. Though I do then have to deduct points for him not technically naming a “Survivor” he is most like. He starts out comparing himself to Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”), then wisely retracts that as too high a bar to clear, but never gives an alternative name. I still like the guy, though, but likability alone is not enough to win the game. Even Ethan Zohn (“Survivor Africa”) had his cutthroat moments. On top of that, Kaleb has the Canadian problem, not to mention the salesperson problem again. Yes, I know Kane didn’t win on “Survivor 44”, but I don’t know if THESE players know that, and Maryanne and Erika are still going to be fresh in people’s minds. Kaleb’s doing the best he can to present himself as a chill-non threat, and luckily for him he’s on a tribe I see rarely going to Tribal Council. But such goodwill cannot last forever. Expect Kaleb to be a consensus boot in the early-to-mid merge area, just for being too nice.
Kellie Nalbandian (30, Critical Care Nurse, New York City, NY, Belo Tribe): Welp, add another one to the “Unorthodox Spelling of the Name ‘Kelly’” Pile! Long-time readers may recall that I once had a hypothesis that contestants with the name “Kelly” (one of, if not the, most common name on US “Survivor”) could be successful if, and only if, their name was not spelled the traditional “Kelly” (Wiglesworth of “Survivor Borneo” being the exception, and I think that one only applied retroactively when she started being called by said last name). As such, it would seem like Kellie would have a good shot at the game. I would agree… If she were on a different tribe. Unfortunately, Kellie is on what I predict to be the disaster tribe of the season, and that’s going to cost her. She’s not a challenge sink, but she’s not exactly a challenge strength either, so there’s not much incentive to keep her around based on that. She’s definitely tough enough for the game (if she can survive being a nurse during the height of COVID-19, I’m not going to question her toughness), but unless her tribe wins more than I expect, she just won’t have the chance. Granted, she also has some concerning things in her bio. Notably, her pet peeves are “inefficiency” and “know-it-alls”, both of which are concerning (and in regards to the latter, how’s she going to do RHAP exit interviews if she hates “know-it-alls”?). Still, the poor tribe luck is the biggest factor in her downfall. She’s not first out, even on her tribe, but eventually her number will just be up. I will say that if she CAN make the merge, she probably makes a deep run, but this time, I just don’t see the numbers working out for her.
Nicholas “Sifu” Alsup (30, Gym Owner, O’Fallon, IL, Reba Tribe): Ok, I have to take umbrage with this nickname. “Sifu”, as people probably know from either “Avatar: The Last Airbender” or “Kung Fu Panda”, is not a name, but a TITLE, basically meaning “master”. Not really a proper name. I’ll still refer to him as that, since that’s what he wants to be called, but know that I know your “name’s” origin, dude. My weird little annoyance aside, Sifu is in a pretty good spot. Likely the physical anchor of his tribe, he seems pretty level-headed and inoffensive. Dude’s used to working with people in his gym, so probably some good interpersonal skills without being domineering. Expect him to take a lead role in challenges, but be a bit more of a co-leader at camp. While he does have the most concerning pet peeves outside of Emily’s with “liars and mean people”, his overall challenge strength probably keeps him safe until the merge. If he can kind of fade into the background at that point, which I suspect he can based on how he describes his work, expect him to be a late-merge boot, once the other physical threats are gone. Also, he likes “Dragon Ball Z”, and while that’s not the same as “Naruto”, it seems like he and Austin are cut from similar cloth that way, so I expect them to get along swimmingly.
Kendra McQuarrie (31, Bartender, Steamboat Springs, CO, Belo Tribe): Rounding out our disaster tribe is the person I’d say is most likely to go once they lose a challenge. On a tribe of overall pretty, for want of a better word, “normal” people, Kendra stands out as “the crazy one”. She openly compares herself to Carolyn, and some might say that bodes well, but I maintain that Carolyn was an exception, rather than a rule. Most of the time, playing that openly and out there and off-the-wall is only going to stick your neck out for elimination. I’d also peg Kendra as the most likely to cost the tribe a challenge, based on overall physicality, another mark against her. Add onto this she’s another one super-excited by the adventure. Not a problem in and of itself, but again, the extra enthusiasm makes her stick out to dangerous levels. Also, did you know she completed the “Camino de Santiago”? Because she did! And she mentions it! Repeatedly! It’s the same problem as Julie and “Second Chances”, though admittedly on a somewhat smaller scale. Bigger tribes, or a tribe that avoids Tribal Council, might give Kendra just enough wiggle room to make the merge, but I don’t think she has either. Thus, for standing out too much, Kendra is probably a pre-merge boot.
Sean Edwards (35, School Principal, Provo-Orem, UT, Lolo Tribe): As the last man on the cast we have yet to talk about, you can expect that he’s my second winner pick of the season. And again, a bit of a controversial one. Fairly concerning pet peeve there with “arrogant people”. Because “Survivor” has never produced one of those. Also, while he isn’t “old”, he’s on the older end for THIS cast, as I’ve mentioned before. That said, being a principal means both dealing with (usually quite stressed) adults, as well as people from a VERY different age demographic as yourself. What I’m saying is that if anyone on this cast can bridge the age gap and be a uniter, Sean is the guy. Dude exudes charm with that smile, and he’s one of the rare breed of people who admit he needs someone to cover his blind spots in an alliance. An undervalued quality, and from this, I gather some good game smarts. He’s not the most athletic, but again, not a sink, and so long as his tribe does fairly well in challenges (as I predict they well), I expect to see Sean in the finals.
Sabiyah Broderick (28, Truck Driver, Jacksonville, NC, Lolo Tribe): To round out the cast as a whole, we have Sabiyah. Are you happy now, internet complainers? You got someone who didn’t get a college education on again! Don’t get used to her though, as the fact that she’s about the ONLY person on the cast like this is a problem for her. Say it with me now, “This makes her stand out, and that’s a bad thing.” The fact that she seems like she’ll be good in challenges, and I don’t see her tribe spending much time at Tribal Council probably saves her during the pre-merge, but I expect her to be an early-to-mid merge boot, just for personality clashes. She also doesn’t strike me as the type to let go the things that bother her, and when those things include “laziness”, again something very common on “Survivor”? She’ll be fun to watch, but I don’t give Sabiyah a particularly long shelf-life.
Oddly, that about does it. Pretty solid cast overall, but not one that’s knocking my socks off. I had stuff to say about pretty much everybody, which is encouraging, but again, maybe these people come off better on paper than they do on camera. Or vice-versa, we’ll have to see. And you can see, when we return with the blog following the premiere! See you then!
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
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