Idol Speculation: “Survivor Winners at War” Episode 9: Gotta Be Like Ice

I guess, if we have no one to praise for correctly identifying last week’s quote, we can talk about the new tribe name, since I failed to do so. “Koru” is not a bad name, though a bit on the short side. We’re not doing as bad as back in the day, when it was NOTHING but four-letter names for a while, but this one does manage to not sound similar to any previous tribe name, at least. It does sound similar to the character of Tohru from “Jackie Chan Adventures”, but as I’m probably the only “Survivor” fan who has ever watched that show, it would only bother me.

Getting back from Tribal Council, it’s safe to say that people are not happy. Michele in particular is not happy, and in telling us that she is not happy, we see that the crowdedness of last episode has even spilled over into this one. Michele, you see, references a plot line we DID NOT SEE AT ALL IN THE PAST EPISODE. She talks about how mad she is when she said she was ok with Wendell going, yet was left out anyway. Um, did I miss something? Yeah, Michele talked about not liking Wendell when they first ended up on a tribe together, but the most recent narrative was how she had wasted a fire token on him, and how bonded they were. Where did this come from? Now, you might charitably say that Michele was simply playing that up to the players, to help make her anger come off as righteous indignation, as well as imply her free-agent status. This argument would make sense, were it not for the fact that she was saying this in confessional. You know, when ONLY talking to the camera? Unless she’s pulling a Danni Boatwright, why lie to the camera? And about this of all things?

Michele is not alone in being pissed, however. Nick, of course, is quite upset as well, telling us that there’s a storm brewing. I wouldn’t bring up this line specifically, were it not for a bit of meta it creates for me. You see, there happens to be a tornado advisory in my area, which a crawl started for as soon as Nick started talking about the storm coming. There’s no way that was coordinated, and it’s comedy gold! Sorry to all of you who didn’t have potentially life-threatening weather in your area. To add insult to injury, Nick tells us he was blindsided on his birthday, which I’m sure will in NO WAY come back to become a plot point later in the episode.

To contrast with the anger, we have Adam, who is naturally thrilled to have made it through Tribal Council. Unfortunately for Adam, this is an odd-numbered episode, meaning he has to look like an idiot. However, it seems Adam may be limited to just grammatical and pronunciation matters, as his first big error is misusing the word “literally”. Unless you’re having open-heart surgery, your heart is never “literally” beating out of your chest. That said, Adam does tell Michele of a bit of a good idea of his. I haven’t drawn much attention to it, but Adam has been searching the Tribal Council voting booth for an idol pretty much every time we see him vote, and as someone who’s advocated for that twist for a while, I can’t help but approve. Adam has turned up empty, but noticed a fleur-de-lis on Probst’s pedestal. Remembering that Denise’s idol was a fleur-de-lis, Adam thinks maybe it might be an idol. I think it might just be a recurring symbol, but hey, I’ve heard weirder theories on “Survivor”, and kudos to Adam for thinking outside the box. Adam does lose points for pronunciation, though. The “s” is silent in fleur-de-lis.

Speaking of thinking outside the box, we cut over to the Edge of Extinction. Joy. Yul returns with a tiny pizza… Er, I mean, yet another clue to a fire token earning opportunity. The clue tells the players to take a step back and remember history. Most everyone concludes that they must look in a place where they found fire tokens before, and hikes up the mountain. Why Natalie doesn’t immediately ditch everyone and run for the water well, since only she knows that it’s there, I can’t say. Natalie does have the bright idea of suggesting they split up at the top, so as to keep Yul and Wendell, who don’t know any place the group has been so far, from finding any tokens. Not that it does her much good, of course. It’s Danni and Parvati who have the brainwave to think back to “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, and look in a memorable hiding place there. Thus, they remember Aubry’s find in a hole in the rock, and so look there, finding a “50/50” advantage, basically a coin flip that either grants you immunity or doesn’t. They agree to sell it to Michele, since she has the most fire tokens, and they can also probably guess that she’s on the outs, and in need of something to keep her in the game. But who gets to receive said fire tokens? Parvati found the actual advantage, but Danni was right there, and was the one with the brainwave about finding the clue? The point is moot! Parvati states her intention to use the fire tokens to get food for everyone there, and even tells them about finding the advantage. Parvati, what happened? Don’t get me wrong, I’m enjoying seeing a different side of you, but this all feels like it really came out of nowhere! What happened to the Parvati of old?

As to this method of hiding it, you might think that I’d hate it. There are several reasons to, after all. Reusing an old hiding place, while clever for an anniversary season, just shows the weakness in staying in Fiji (fans of the show can remember where previous advantages were hidden, and look there). Plus, there was no guarantee that someone would remember this. No winner past “Survivor David vs. Goliath” is on this season, and “Survivor Edge of Extinction” itself is not exactly a memorable season. On top of that, while I get wanting to honor the show’s past, you should not honor “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, due to overall being pointless and, in my opinion, the worst season the show has ever had. If it fades into non-existence (with the exception of Aubry, Rick Devans, and Wendy) I will be content. So yeah, I should hate this. But I don’t. Why? Because Aubry got mentioned in a positive light on the 20th anniversary season of the show, and that’s a high even Edge of Extinction can’t bring me down from.

Continuing on the “tangentially related to Aubry” train, our reward challenge comes from her first season “Survivor Kaoh Rong”. Three members of a team of five must transport a net of heavy wooden fish to shore, hook them to a pole, and transport to a table, where the two remaining players must them put them in a table puzzle. Not a bad challenge at all, and certainly not overused. That said, my usual complaint about team challenges post-merge stands, especially when our sit-out doesn’t even get a chance at reward. What is our reward? Chinese take-out. Nothing special, but I suppose when you’re starving on an island, food is food.

On paper, this should be a lopsided competition. Our red team is Jeremy, Nick, Adam, Tony, and Tyson, while our blue team is Michele, Sophie, Kim, Sarah, and Ben. While these types of challenges usually come down to the puzzle, each time has one puzzle whiz, so you’d think the challenge would come down to strength, which it kind of does, since our early lead team does win. And you’d think the red team would have the edge there, having four challenge beasts compared to one. There’s almost no way they could lose. So, I have to ask: WHY IN GOD’S NAME DID YOU PUT ADAM ON THE STRENGTH PORTION OF THE CHALLENGE? HE’S FAR AND AWAY THE WEAKEST PERSON LEFT PHYSICALLY, AND ALL HIS STRENGTH LIES IN PUZZLES! Either Jeremy or Nick our two puzzle solvers, would have been WAY better served helping on this portion of the challenge.

Sure enough, red struggles, and blue wins reward. Before Probst can send them off, though, Sarah asks if she can give it up. Probst agrees, knowing the drama this can create, and Sarah gives the reward to Nick. It is his birthday after all…

Sorry, I had to check my phone there. Just got a news alert. It seems the city of Boston, MA, has exploded. Experts aren’t sure why, as the only clue is that the epicenter is the home of one Rodney Lavoie Jr., contestant on “Survivor Worlds Apart”. Bizarre.

Anyway, this might seem like a nice gesture, but this is Sarah Lacina we’re talking about here. The criminal of “Survivor Game Changers”. Literally the person most people wanted out pre-game. There’s no way it’s that simple. There must be some ulterior motive.

SARAH: I just wanted to do something nice and emotional. There was no gameplay involved.

Well ok, then. Apparently this is just the episode where all the ruthless women show their softer side. That said, just because there was no gameplay involved doesn’t mean people won’t believe there is. Adam points out how big of a threat this makes her. Jeremy reminds us that this is what got him eliminated on “Survivor San Juan del Sur”. Even TONY talks about how dumb of a move this was, and when TONY is the one telling your your move was stupid, you know you done goofed.

With that, though, I would like to point out how good a job Tony and Sarah are doing at keeping their relationship under wraps. On a season where any pre-existing pairs have been snuffed out as soon as they’re noted, it’s pretty impressive that they’ve managed to stay strong and avoid being targeted, by and large. Those times when they have been targeted, it’s for entirely different reasons. It shows the strategic chops these pair have. And the best part. The show doesn’t hit us over the head with this information, but instead trusts the viewer to pay attention, and lets it sink in without narration. More of this, please!

After a humanizing moment with our reward winners, we must get back to what Probst believes “Survivor” is all about: Idols and Advantages. Our feasters look high and low, even going so far as to bust open their fortune cookies to find a clue. No such luck, though I did appreciate the “look under the bottoms of the cartons” maneuver. With no idols or advantages there, we instead turn to Michele, who now has to decide whether or not to buy the “50/50” advantage. Ok, since we’re here, let’s talk about this advantage. Put simply, it’s dumb. The rules on it aren’t exceptionally clear. “Safe” means you effectively have immunity, but “Not Safe” is not well-explained. Is it like losing a challenge on “Island of the Idols” where you lose your vote? If so, then it’s a TERRIBLE advantage. Very expensive (four fire tokens!) for only a SHOT at payoff, and a big loss if you don’t. Even if it just does nothing, however, it’s still a bad deal. People have paid less for GUARANTEED safety. Even with Michele in this position, why go for this? Because a fortune cookie told her to. Look, Michele. I like you. Even as the head of the “Aubry Lobby”, I like you. You seem like a lot of fun to hang with, and you played a solid game last time. I may prefer Aubry, but no disrespect to you. You are a very worthy winner. That said, THIS IS A HORRIBLE DEAL, AND YOU SHOULD FEEL BAD FOR MAKING IT!

Our immunity challenge today comes courtesy of “Survivor Caramoan”. Basically, everyone has to balance on increasingly small parts of a triangular prism, with the last one standing being the victory. We sadly do not get the positive callback to Andrea and Brenda’s impromptu rule change, though we do get the positive of a few particularly wild players trying to keep their balance. Jeremy’s theatrics and Ben’s “kung-fu” moves in particular need to be praised. Also, I should say that I’m impressed with Ben. I thought he’d be out early, since this sort of challenge does not favor the top-heavy. Jeremy can attest to that. Second place is impressive, though. That said, this challenge does have a couple of bad points. Once again, a fire token is granted to the winner, and we again get rock music with lyrics of the challenge, rather than the more traditional music the show has. I expressed my disdain for these creative choices last episode, and am sad to see they don’t seem to be a one-off thing. However, since I already talked about my hatred for these choices recently, I’ll spare you the rant again, and thus cut to Kim winning immunity. A well-earned victory, but not an impactful one.

At first, the vote seems like it’s going to be simple and straightforward. Nick and Michele are on the outs? Split the vote between Nick and Michele, with Nick being the primary choice for being “untrustworthy”. Adam gets thrown out as the alternate split vote in place of Michele, but that gets dismissed very quickly. But then Nick, sensing that everything is going against him, decides to stir things up. He tells Tyson that his name is getting thrown out. It may be. After all, he is they guy back from the Edge of Extinction, and while I don’t expect most people to remember “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, the fact that the winner came from there is something I would hope they remember, and take to heart when deciding how to treat returnees from the Edge of Extinction. Thus, it wouldn’t surprise me if Tyson had been thrown out as a possible boot, but we haven’t heard about it. This gets Tyson to toss Sarah’s name out, who tosses Adam out again, who tosses out Ben’s name, and then all hell breaks loose. Names being thrown around left and right. Tyson even gets his name thrown out for really real this time. It’s pretty much pure chaos as we head to Tribal Council, meaning my usual “This is who’s being decided between; here’s the right move for the swing votes” format goes out the window.

What I can talk about, however, is one little moment that nearly escaped being seen. You see, for the most part the people we see talking are the groups you’d expect. Jeremy, Tony, and Tyson. Sarah and Sophie. Ben and Adam even get together and do their “odd-couple schtick”, where Ben tries to call Adam on throwing out his name, which Adam does a poor job of denying. But one that almost escapes notice is Kim and Denise. We’d seen them talk on the second iteration of Dakal, but nothing much concrete. Here, however, when everyone else is panicking, they stay calm and debate the pros and cons of going for Sarah (Kim says she’s ok, and we immediately cut to her saying to Ben that Sarah can’t go. This to me says they’re playing smarter than most everyone left. My favorite player still in the game, and the most dominant winner ever teaming up? I love it.

With so much misdirection (though given their airtime earlier in the episode, Adam and Sarah seem to be the main people set up for elimination), all Tribal Council really needs to do is keep the chaos going. That it does, with all pretense thrown out the window, and Tribal Council turns into a whisper-fest, though somewhat more justified than other examples. The producers did nothing to elicit this. This is just everyone being crazy. It’s only Adam and Ben arguing about how they talk to each other once again that gets everyone to pay attention. We’re reminded here that Adam is his own worst enemy. While I don’t doubt that he was targeted before Tribal Council, when he kept being paranoid about straight answers, and continuing to make it an issue when he could just let it die, he really did himself no favors. As such, it’s not a surprise when Adam gets the votes, but the rest of the episode was enough of a mystery, and the reasoning behind his leaving clear, that one can’t help but be satisfied. Adam clearly demonstrated, through his paranoia at Tribal Council, that he had crossed the “Shamar Threshold”, first seen on “Survivor Caramoan”. His chaotic paranoia now made him more a hinderance than a help as an ally.

Did that paranoia pay off, though? Did Adam correctly pick out an at-Tribal Council Immunity Idol? It would seem not, as Adam is unable to wrest it from the podium. Probst takes pity and lets him declare it an idol for himself anyway, before revealing that it is, in fact, just set decoration. To everyone’s credit, apart from a bit of mockery at Adam’s attempts to pull off the fleur-de-lis, no one really thinks it a bad idea. It’s plausible, and as Adam says, worth a try. Even Probst is respectful when snuffing Adam’s torch.

In case it wasn’t obvious, this episode is head and shoulders an improvement over the previous one. There was still some crowding, but we got good emotional moments, three-dimensional characters, even some solid misdirection in there. I still think this season is trying to do too much, but it did that much better this episode than the previous one.

So now, as we await your next episode, I await your next guess. Which US contestant said this quote, and on what season? Adding in episode number is not necessary, but earns your brownie points if you get it! First person to get it correct gets their name at the top of the next blog!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Winners at War” Cast Assessment

Well, here we are! The official cast photos have been released, biographies are now up on the official website, we’ve got a new preview video… And yet we STILL don’t know the tribe names? What the heck, CBS? We can SEE who’s on what tribe in your videos. Make it easy on us and just break down the division. It would sure make my life easier.

Welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to. Somewhat less knee-jerk this time around since we’ve had a pretty good idea of who’s going to be on this cast for some time now, but here we are nonetheless. Time for me to talk about which winners I think have the skills to pay the bills, and the ones I think will wish they’d sat this season out. Since this is an all-returnee season, though, there’s a couple of bits of business to get out of the way. First off, the biographical information is going to be somewhat limited this time, basically just being the contestants name, season they won (it would take too long to list every season, and pointless to write “winner” over and over again), and which tribe they’re on. This is partly because I’m assuming some familiarity with these people from the readers of this blog, but also because, on a returnee season, these factors don’t matter as much in my opinion. With an all-newbie season, the writings are pretty much all we’ve got to go on. Here, however, we’ve SEEN these people play before, so things like their occupation and pet peeves don’t matter as much. Now, I have read the cast bios, and will occasionally bring them up, but most of my assessment will be based on how they played before/the dynamics endemic to a returnee season in this day and age. Since Edge of Extinction is regrettably back, I should explain that I’ll be keeping my ratings for how people do the same nonetheless. If I think someone can win their way back into the game, I will reflect this, but unless you win your way back in, or someone quits before you, when you were voted out is when you were voted out. Sitting on an island making friends we don’t get to see doesn’t count. As per usual with a returnee season, I’ll be mentioning when I think a player doesn’t fit, or I think someone else would have been better, and listing my preferred replacement beneath. And finally, on a lighter note, I’ll be calling these tribes “Red” and “Blue”, since again, CBS hasn’t given us their names for some stupid reason. Now, on to the assessment, in chronological order by first win!

Ethan Zohn (“Survivor Africa”, Blue Tribe): With Ethan, we have what I believe to be an “Idol Speculation” first: My favorite player of the season is the first one we talk about. “Survivor Africa” has always been one of my personal favorite seasons (it would probably make my top 5 if I didn’t have the nostalgia goggles on for “Survivor Guatemala”), and while I’m not going to sit here and say that Ethan is the greatest character to come out of the season, he’s still a lot of fun. A distinctive look, a good story, and just generally a nice guy. I could go on and on about just how likable Ethan is, but frankly, I think T-Bird said it best: “What can you say that’s bad about Ethan? Nuthin’!” This still holds true today. Plus, it’s intriguing to me to see how someone from such a different era of “Survivor” plays in the modern day, as Ethan now ties with another player on this season for longest gap between returns at 16 years. Even to this day, Ethan is one of the top social games ever played, and we’ve seen with the recent victories of Tommy Sheehan (“Survivor Island of the Idols”) and Wendell Holland (“Survivor Ghost Island”) that this style of gameplay is still very dangerous, and can realistically net someone a win. So, Ethan is my male pick to win the whole thing right? Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh…Nnnnnnnnnnnnnoooooo. Much as I love Ethan, and hope that I’m wrong in my assessment, I peg him as a pre-merge boot on this season. There’s two different, but related, factors to why I don’t see Ethan having a long shelf-life in this game. Ethan’s style of gameplay definitely still holds up, but he’s also been very vocal online about how “easy” the game is these days, and when he has talked about coming back, it’s to “show people how it’s done.” Much as I praise Ethan’s overall gameplay, I don’t give anyone good odds to win twice if they don’t change SOMETHING up about their game (some might say Sandra’s the counterargument to this, but I’d argue that she upped the intensity of her scheming on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, creating a distinct game from her first win). If Ethan’s not willing to adapt at least a little, he’s in trouble. His other issue is, well, the attitude I just mentioned. Recent players especially are not going to take their game being belittled like this well at all, and I could see that running counter to Ethan’s natural charm. I hope Ethan’s got enough good sense to keep that attitude in check, but as it stands, I just think the elitist attitude is going to come through, and lead to an early exit for Ethan. To end on a positive note, I will say that I enjoyed his answer as to how long he’s been watching “Survivor”. “…since Richard Hatch first took advantage of CBS’ ability to pixelate a moving image.” There’s the fun and charming Ethan we know!

Sandra Diaz-Twine (“Survivor Pearl Islands”, Red Tribe): The Queen herself! Of course, a season tackling legends such as these would be incomplete without the only two-time winner in the history of the show. Naturally, between this, her snark, and her ability to sabotage people without getting caught, I am thrilled to have Sandra back again. It’s only right and fair on a season like this. That said, I’m fairly certain this will be Sandra’s worst outing yet in terms of placement. Even on a season made up of pretty much nothing but big targets, she still stands out, with only Boston Rob and Amber (as a pair) possibly eclipsing her threat level. She’s in a similar position to Richard Hatch on “Survivor All-Stars”. Everyone wants to dethrone the queen. Sandra is wily enough that I don’t see her being the VERY first boot, but again, expect her to go pre-merge. She doesn’t work well as a shield, and no one wants to risk her getting far. Recipe for disaster on a season such as this.

Amber Mariano (“Survivor All-Stars”): Jumping ahead a bit to touch on my overall thoughts, I’m quite happy with this cast in general, and the women they chose in particular. This cast as a whole is actually my least-objectionable returnee cast since I’ve been blogging, beating out the previous record holder, “Survivor Cambodia”, with only three choices I disagree with to “Cambodia’s” four. And again, the women are overall much less objectionable than the men, in my opinion. Amber is the exception. Who in their right mind thought it was a brilliant idea to bring Amber back? Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure she’s a lovely person, but on screen, she’s just BORING! Basically no flavor to her personality, and just there to be generically “nice”. It would be one thing if she was coming back on her own, but I have to say it was a dick move by the producers to bring her back with Boston Rob, since it torpedoes any chance she has of winning this thing. Rob would have a target on his own, but Amber, on her own, might fly under the radar on a season like this, and do quite well. But while Rob is a threat individually, he and Amber combined are probably the biggest threat around. We might have players who played together before, but there’s a difference between being allies and being MARRIED! They’ve basically got the downside of being a couple on a “Blood vs. Water” season, when everyone else is single, and thus, one of them is going out early. Most other analysis I’ve seen says Boston Rob will be the early target, but I personally think Amber is going to be the initial target. Boston Rob may be a threat, but he’s good as a shield, good at camp life, and good at challenges, for his age. There’s reasons to keep him around. Amber? There’s no real reason to keep her, and with Boston Rob around, there’s a reason to get rid of her: Her exit weakens Boston Rob’s game. As such, Amber will be the first boot out of this season. Unless the tribe REALLY wants to get rid of the biggest threats early (and as I’ll discuss at the end, I don’t see that happening this season), Amber brings the least to the tribe, and gains a lot for the tribe by being gone. Such a shame, too, as we could have had someone a lot more intriguing this time around. Someone like…

Vecepia Towery (“Survivor Marquesas”): Perhaps a controversial choice, but while Vecepia was not the most memorable player on her season, she at least had a couple of moments, and a lot more agency in the game than Amber ever demonstrated. Vecepia, while “quiet” by today’s standards, had a subtle strategy that I’d like to see play out in a modern setting. Plus, if you were looking for “random, non-threatening winner from an early season” for this slot, I’d argue that Vecepia fits better since she’s, you know, NOT MARRIED TO ANOTHER PLAYER, THEREBY BEING A MAJOR TARGET THROUGH NO FAULT OF HER OWN! Oh, and she’s the only African-American woman to win “Survivor”. Does that count for nothing, CBS? Shouldn’t you at least have CONSIDERED her in casting?

Danni Boatwright (“Survivor Guatemala”, Blue Tribe): Stars be praised, “Survivor Guatemala” is getting its first representative on a returnee season! At last, CBS acknowledges the season for the underrated gem that it is, bringing back a stellar strategist to boot! Yeah, I’m a bit excited to see Danni back. While I admit she was by no means my favorite player on the season, I cannot deny that she played a superb game that flew below the radar even of the producers. As to how she’ll do, I’d say Danni has a decent shot at winning the whole thing, possibly even a dark horse for a victory. Danni strikes me as the type able to adapt to whatever situation she’s thrown in, and so won’t play the same game, but take the best elements from her old game, and combine them with what works now. Point being, she’s a threat, but from a relatively forgotten season. This means she won’t be used as a shield, but also means she can slip in as a number, without being a “Hey, what about that person?” sort of boot. My only concern with Danni, as I’ll talk about with other players, is how much drive she has to win this game. The one drawback to an all-winners season is that you run the risk of people basically saying “Eh, I’ve won already, I don’t need to try hard this time.” While I don’t think Danni will go this way, I could see her taking things a bit easier than before, feeling that she’s accomplished what she needed to on her first season. Still, since Danni strikes a good balance of savvy-enough to play well, but not so savvy as to be threatening, I see her making the late merge, possibly even the final episode, and would not be that surprised if she won.

Yul Kwon (“Survivor Cook Islands”, Red Tribe): Keeping up the positivity train, I’m happy to see Yul back in the game. He played one of the more dominant games of the first half of the show, but knows how to play the diplomat as well. He was one of my favorites on the season (though I must admit I like Cao Boi slightly more), and his return fills me with joy. Also surprise, since Yul was a person I thought had kind of moved on from “Survivor”. Still, he deserves to be back for his performance alone, and I think his return will be rewarded. Yes, Yul is my male pick to win the season, and if you were to put a gun to my head, and forced me to give one name only to be the winner, I would probably go with Yul. Like I said, the guy’s a diplomat, and still built enough to be considered a “threat”, and so can get in on a “meat shield” alliance. That said, I think Yul will be underestimated since people will say “Well, he only won because he had a super idol”. While technically true, I’d say people unfairly undersell Yul’s game because of this. Yes, he had that idol, but it would only have saved him once if he hadn’t used it properly. Instead, he used it to put pressure on a swing vote, and give his side the majority for the rest of the game. Yul is a big threat, but an underestimated one, and so I’d say he’s probably going to be the second two-time winner in the history of the show.

Parvati Shallow (“Survivor Micronesia”, Blue Tribe): And, there goes the positivity train. Don’t misunderstand, I’m happy Parvati’s back. The woman who helped organize the “Black Widow Brigade”, and won my favorite season of all-time, is always worth bringing back, and well worthy of a season of this caliber. The trouble is that Parvati, like Sandra, is an obvious threat who doesn’t work well as a shield for you. As such, Parvati is another pre-merge boot, though I could see her being our Edge of Extinction merge returnee, since she’s not as bad in challenges as one might think, especially if it ends up being endurance or balance-based. If so, then she probably leaves pretty much immediately after. She’s still a threat at the merge, and I don’t see these players suffering people winning their way back in gladly. Parvati’s time on the island this time around will be nasty, brutish, and short, but fun nonetheless. One minor upside for Parvati: She’s competitive enough that I don’t see her going “Eh, I already won.” at any point. Not sure it’s enough to save her, but a point in her favor nonetheless.

“Boston” Rob Mariano (“Survivor Redemption Island”, Blue Tribe): I kind of already went over my thoughts on Boston Rob already, so his bio may be kind of short. With the possible exception of Sandra, Rob is probably the biggest threat going into this season. Without Amber there, he would still be a big threat, but the threat of “couples” puts him over the top. That said, once Amber leaves, his threat level takes a big step down, and coupled with a probably “shield” alliance he can get going, I expect Boston Rob to stick around for a while. Not only can he be a good shield, but he’s going to make camp life a lot more comfortable, which is no small consideration. He probably gets voted out in the early merge, once he loses an immunity, but again, he’s not in bad shape, so I still expect him to do well in challenges, even winning his way back from the final Edge of Extinction Challenge. Like Parvati, he’ll be voted out shortly after, since no one on this season will let another “Chris Underwood” situation happen like on the titular “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, but as a result, Rob will be around until the final episode. I suppose I should also mention that he’s part of the reason I have Parvati going early, since I don’t see him forgetting “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” any time soon. As to my happiness at his return… Eh? While I don’t hate Boston Rob, I’ve never been his biggest fan, and five times playing the game (six if you count his mentorship on “Survivor Island of the Idols”, which I don’t) feels like too much for anyone. That said, outside of Rupert (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) and possibly Richard Hatch (“Survivor Borneo”), he’s one of the most easily recognized players by the general public, and played one of the more dominant games seen by a winner, so even if I don’t like it, he has earned his right to come back.

Sophie Clarke (“Survivor South Pacific”, Red Tribe): For most of these returnees, as soon as I heard they were coming back, I had at least a base opinion on their chances. Sophie was the exception for me. Sophie is a bit of a paradox in the world of “Survivor”: the person who played the smartest game by actively choosing to do nothing. It’s not like she even went out of her way to go to the end with despised people, she was just able to articulately explain her decisions well, and earned a deserved victory for it. Honestly, I was pleasantly surprised to see her back, since her game was not the most exciting, and she seems to get snubbed by CBS as a result. I’m glad to see that her snark is recognized, and am very happy to have her back on the season as well. Like I said, though, I wasn’t certain of her chances. Playing the same game doesn’t work twice, and that goes double in the case of Sophie. One of the reasons her strategy worked last time was the fanatical loyalty that Upolu had to Coach, thus allowing her to take things slow and quiet. That will not be the case this time. Hence, hers was one of the bios I was most interested in reading this time, to see if she recognized this. Thankfully she did, so I give Sophie decent odds in this game. I don’t see her winning, but if she can adapt her strategy to better fit this more proactive group, I see her making the mid-to-late merge before people basically say “Hey, wait a minute…” and boot her off. We’ll get plenty of snark, though, which is ok by me!

Kim Spradlin-Wolfe (“Survivor One World”, Red Tribe): I’m not going to mince words: Kim is my female pick to win the whole season. Kim, like Boston Rob before her, played quite a dominant game, but unlike Boston Rob, did it on her first try. This speaks volumes to her gamesmanship skills, and I would be foolish to say that she has no shot at winning as a result. True her dominant performance does make her a threat, yet poor shield, sort of similarly to Parvati, but I think Kim is helped by the fact that “Survivor One World” is frankly not a good season. This makes her game less well-remembered, and also gives people the psychological out of “Oh, she was playing against idiots, and I’m not an idiot, so of course I’ll beat her!”, which gives her an edge. I could be very wrong here, since her performance was SO dominant as to be memorable in its own right, and it’s why, if forced to pick a winner between her and Yul, I’d bet on Yul. I’m also a bit worried since Kim says she’s playing this season “intuitively”. Not that this isn’t necessarily true, but I wonder how much Kim has really thought about this pre-season. If she hasn’t done much, and other people have, she may be in trouble. That said, Kim’s instincts have rarely proven wrong, and she’s a dominant player who does not necessarily come across as one, so I’d say she’s a probable winner for the season, and well deserving of her spot.

Denise Stapley (“Survivor Philippines”, Blue Tribe): Outside of Ethan, Denise is probably the person I’m most excited to see back. Us Psychology peeps have to stick together after all. Similarly to Sophie, she’s one I was pleasantly surprised to see back. She didn’t make much of a splash on her season compared to the Malcoms and the Lisas, but she had a wit about her that I liked, and played a simple, yet smart, game. It’s an intelligent choice I’m proud to say is on this season. That said, unlike Sophie, but like Ethan, I don’t give Denise very good odds in this game. She fares slightly better than Ethan, since I think she’s an early merge boot, but I just don’t see her winning. While Denise surviving EVERY SINGLE TRIBAL COUNCIL is an impressive feat (an another reason she deserves to be on a season such as this), the fact is that apart from a tight partnership with Malcolm, her strategy never seemed to coalesce. That is to say, she definitely had a strategy, but it was kind of a “go with the flow” strategy. That can get you through the early phases of a season like this, but she’s going to need to up her game in order to have a shot. Frankly, I didn’t see Denise doing that before this season, and in her bio she talks about not changing her game that much, which is her death knell to me. Simply due to their being bigger fish to fry, she lasts until the merge, but not much beyond that, which is a shame.

Tyson Apostol (“Survivor Blood vs. Water”, Red Tribe): Hoo boy, controversial opinion time. I know that Tyson is a lot of people’s favorite player, or at least amongst their favorite players. Read a list of “Funniest Players” and you’re almost guaranteed to see Tyson’s name on there. However, humor is subjective, and for me, Tyson just doesn’t do it. Personal, I know, but I just don’t like his style of humor. His delivery is excellent, but he seems to go in for insult comedy, which to me only really works if you insult yourself as much as you insult other people. Maybe it’s just what we’re shown, but Tyson doesn’t seem to do that all that often, and it just rubs me the wrong way. Plus, I’m not a fan of jokes about encouraging people to kill themselves. On a more objective criticism note, while Tyson definitely played a fantastic game his third time out, he’s not what I’d call a “legendary” player like you’d want on this season, and frankly, I think his story arc kind of had the perfect conclusion on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”. He went from not taking the game that seriously his first time out, to trying to take it more seriously but making a dumb move, to earning his redemption with a well-deserved win. No need to sully that story with an unnecessary fourth appearance. With all that said, how do I think Tyson will do? I put him as another early merge boot. His demeanor is non-threatening, and I could also see him being kept around as a shield. However, once the merge hits, he becomes much more of a threat, and is voted out as a result. Not a bad showing, but I still think we could have done better. So, who would I have cast instead?

Chris Daugherty (“Survivor Vanuatu”): For me, this is the biggest snub of the season. Chris may not be as big a character as Tyson is, but if you’re looking to really pit the best against each other, it’s a crime to not have Chris back to test his mettle. The man was down 1-6 on a gender-divided season and STILL won! That takes some gumption, and it kills me that we don’t get to see him test himself against the best. Frankly, if he were here, he’d have beaten out Yul as my male pick to win the whole thing. Plus, I just wanted to see his prediction from the “Survivor Vanuatu” DVD come true. Is that so wrong?

Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”, Red Tribe): While I’m not as big a Tony fan as some others, and feel his game is overvalued, I cannot deny that he has earned his spot amongst the best of the best. Equal parts character and strategist (even if that strategy amounts to “throw it at the wall and see what sticks” in my opinion), Tony is definitely one of the more memorable and engaging winners of more recent seasons, and so of course he’s going to come back. He’s also going to be a major factor in Sandra going out early, since like with Boston Rob and Parvati, I don’t see him forgetting their last appearance together. That said, while I don’t see Tony doing as poorly as he did on “Survivor Game Changers”, I still have him pegged as a pre-merge boot, probably right after the swap. Some might argue he’d be kept around as a shield, but shields need to be reliable, at least in terms of strategy. A lot of words come to mind when I think of Tony. “Reliable” is not one of them. Even if he might be good to take deep in the game, he’s too volatile to risk. There’s people who go before him on his tribe, but he’s an easy boot at the swap, so that’s where I see him going.

Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”, Blue Tribe): Having played one of the best “Revenge” games in the show’s history, and helping salvage the season from the blandness that is Jon Misch, Natalie is someone who very much earned a spot back on this season. And I think her gameplay will serve her well this time around as well. The woman’s loud enough and dominant enough to work as a shield, but not so much as to be considered a major threat who needs to be targeted early. All that makes for a good combination, leading to a probably mid-merge boot. I don’t put her higher only because she’s one of the few people who says she won’t change her game that much, and while not the worst thing in her case, that can only take you so far. Her only other pitfall, I’ll discuss in the next bio.

Jeremy Collins (“Survivor Cambodia”, Blue Tribe): Ok, I have to say it: WHAT IDIOT DIVIDED THESE TRIBES? Look, putting enemies together on one tribe was going to be inevitable, especially since about half of the original “Villains” tribe is on this season, but did you need to put ALLIES together? Would it have really been that hard to put Jeremy and Natalie on separate tribes to start out with? This is the other pitfall I mentioned for Natalie, and it goes for Jeremy as well. While not the same as being married, two close allies together on the same tribe is trouble, and if their tribemates recognize this, one of them at least is going early, if not both. That said, I think Jeremy and Natalie are both smart enough to keep their connection on the down-low, and since their shared season is not that well-remembered, I’d expect Jeremy to do well as well, keeping up yet modifying his “shields” idea, and getting to the early merge with it. I may be shooting myself in the foot, underestimating Jeremy a second time, but like on “Survivor Cambodia”, I think he’s just outclassed. These people aren’t going to let him get to the end again, but he should get decently far, assuming he keeps his alliance with Natalie under wraps. For those wondering why I bring up the “shields” strategy so much in this cast assessment: Bear in mind that Jeremy is so far the only man to win an all-returnee season. The only model we have for men winning these seasons was created by him. The other dominant players would be fools not to follow, with modifications, his example. For engineering that strategy into the popular lexicon, Jeremy is definitely worthy of his spot among the best.

Michele Fitzgerald (“Survivor Kaoh Rong, Blue Tribe): Longtime readers of mine will know of my love for Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”) to the point that she’s my favorite player of all time. However, contrary to what this might imply, I am THRILLED that Michele’s back. Similar to Sophie, she played a game worthy of respect, but not respected by CBS, so I’m glad she gets another chance to show them how you actually play the game well. While I respect Aubry’s game, Michele also played a great game, and is a worthy winner to her season (in case anyone was wondering, while I do dislike the outcome of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, it is because the editors did not take the time to adequately show us Aubry’s “faults”, thus making Michele’s victory seem unearned. However, this is entirely the fault of the editing team/post-production, and not any of the players on that season. In my view, it is possible to say that both Michele and Aubry played good games, and still not be satisfied with the outcome). Normally I’d be concerned with Michele’s chances, since she’s another one who says she won’t change much. Michele, however, is the exception that proves the rule, as I think she’s the one person who can play the same game over and over and keep winning. When I think of Michele, the first word that comes to mind is “chameleon”. Michele just has a natural ability to blend into whatever situation or group she finds herself in, and argued properly (which Michele has shown she can do), this is a winning strategy. It says something that even on a season and a tribe that skews older, I give Michele good odds, despite being one of the youngest players of the season. That said, do I think that strategy will give her a win? Possibly, but I’d say she’s probably out around the mid-to-late merge area. Michele is good, but so is her competition. Close to the end, they’ll say “Hey wait a minute! What’s she still doing here?” and there’s nothing she can do about it. A shame, but I expect a good showing from Michele nonetheless.

Adam Klein (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”, Blue Tribe): Oh, Adam. I like you buddy. I really do. I’m even ok with you being here, representing the “superfan” winner since Cochran (“Survivor South Pacific”) can’t. But MAN, do you not have a snowball’s chance at winning this season. Adam has a few factors working against him. While not a dominant winner, his win is recent enough to still be fresh in people’s memories, and make them wary. Adam’s also on the younger end of things this season, which will make it harder for him to connect with people. And while I enjoy his superfan status, I fear it will blind him in terms of the game and/or annoy his fellow players. I can see Ethan or Boston Rob getting fed up with hero worship pretty quickly. Really, though, for me what kills Adam’s chances of winning is his determination and story. Sad though it is to say, a lot of Adam’s win had to do with the regrettable death of his mother. That was a driving factor in why he played so hard on his season, and in his closing arguments for his win. Without these factors, I don’t see him playing hard enough to stay in, and as such is an easy pre-merge boot. A shame, since I like the guy, but I call them like I see them.

Sarah Lacina (“Survivor Game Changes”, Red Tribe): AGAIN, REALLY? So, not only do we have allies Jeremy and Natalie on the same tribe, but we have Sarah and Tony on the same tribe now as well? WHY? It’s not just that it’s an edge for one side or the other, depending on how you look at it, but it could have been so easily avoided! Swap Sarah and Natalie, and bam! Tribes are still balanced, but no major allies end up on the same starting tribe! This is not rocket science, people! While I may not be happy with her tribe placement, I am happy to see Sarah back again. Her win was one of the better parts of “Survivor Game Changers”, and I’m always happy to see someone back who admits they’ve made mistakes and have learned from them. Really, the main mark against Sarah is Tony, since the pair of them do stick out as an alliance, making them a threat, but since I see Tony going early, this is less of a problem for Sarah. She probably makes the early-to-mid-merge, but I just don’t think enough time has passed for her to have a real shot at winning. I touched on this briefly with Adam, but we’re getting to the point in the series now where everyone remembers your past game, and you seem more of a threat because of it. This will be Sarah’s undoing, but she’ll stick around a good bit before then.

Ben Driebergen (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”, Blue Tribe): Perhaps a controversial opinion, but I’m totally cool with Ben getting another shot at the game. Yes, he used a lot of idols and advantages towards the end, but unlike some, I tend to put the fault for that on his fellow players rather than Ben or production. You’re trying to get this guy out, have a majority of players over him, and you DON’T set a watch on him? You deserve what you get. Plus, even bearing in mind all the edges he had in the game (he definitely doesn’t win without final four fire making), the dude’s a nice guy and a deserving winner. Hopefully this time he can shake off the stigma of supposed “production help”. That said, I’m not sure he’s going to get the chance to do it, since Ben is another pre-merge boot, if you ask me. What Ben’s most remembered for are the “Ben Bombs” at Tribal Council, and the fact is, like Tony, this leads to an unpredictability in his game I don’t see this group tolerating. Ben might make the swap at least, but I don’t see him getting much beyond that.

Wendell Holland (“Survivor Ghost Island”, Red Tribe): Wendell played very well on his season, and I stand by the comparison to Ethan Zohn. He has the same social upside as Ethan, without the cumbersome baggage of early-season elitism. Really, Wendell’s biggest issue is just how recently he won. True, it was not a dominating performance on his own, and I could see people looking at him like JT or Stephen from “Survivor Tocantins” playing without their other half, and thereby not being a threat. However, while close, a tie vote does stick in the mind, and I don’t see Wendell being able to play as low-key as he did the last time as a result. There’s always going to be some eyes on him, which will understandably make his game harder. That said, one’s social graces should not be underestimated, and I’d say Wendell’s skills will take him to the early-to-mid-merge area, especially since Wendell seems to recognize what he’s going to need to change in his bio. At that point, though, he just sticks in the mind too much, and goes home. If it’s any consolation, I do think he deserves a spot on this season. Even leaving aside the “Winner to win in a tiebreaker” milestone, he reminded us that, even in this day and age, social game wins out over flashy moves, and that counts for a lot in my book.

Nick Wilson (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”, Red Tribe): Rounding out our cast, we have what I consider to be one of the odd choices of the season. I understand why they cast Nick. “Survivor David vs. Goliath” is the most recent season to get an overall positive reception, and is one of the few in the 30’s to get such a reception. It’s well-remembered and well-liked, so of course you want the winner back. However, while I definitely like and respect the season, it’s got little to do with Nick. He’s hardly a BAD winner, but aside from the nickname thing (which I personally found annoying thanks to my Post-Phillip-Sheppard-Stress-Disorder), does he really stand out as a winner? He played a solid game, but an unremarkable one, and on a season supposedly celebrating the best of the best, I think we could do better. While you might argue that Nick’s in a good spot due to not standing out, I still peg him as a pre-merge boot, though probably post swap. Simply put, he’s too recent and too young. Our youngest player on the season will have a hard time bonding with an overall older cast, and his recent win will mean he’s always a target. Hence, when you need someone out at the swap, there’s Nick Wilson, easy target. That said, since I don’t think he should be on this season, who would I put in his place?

Mike Holloway (“Survivor Worlds Apart”): Again, a controversial call, and for me “Survivor David vs. Goliath” is far and away a better season than “Survivor Worlds Apart”. But love or hate him, Mike Holloway is MEMORABLE, which Nick, for me, is not. Plus, Mike won in a unique way, immunitying his way to the end, which would have been good to see represented on this season, and see how it stacks up against the other styles of gameplay. Unlike the other replacements I’d have on the season, Mike was at least CONTACTED, but still, given how unusual his win was, this still feels like a snub.

And there you have it, one of the best returnee casts this show has ever had! For all my complaints, most of these choices are logical, and while CBS is doing their damnedest to make this a bad season, there’s still a joy in seeing all the winners together. Since I doubt we’ll get a straight Pagonging this season, an analysis of the tribes seems almost irrelevant, but for what it’s worth, despite not producing a winner pick I give the Blue tribe an edge early on. Both tribes are fairly evenly matched in terms of challenge ability, but I think Red has more challenge sinks. Since so many challenges are “Only as fast as your slowest member”, I see them losing the first couple (probably where Amber and Sandra go), but then finding their footing at a swap, with only a vulnerable couple (Tony, Nick) going at that point. As mentioned, I also see a “shields” strategy being prominent this season, with Jeremy and Boston Rob doing it jointly on the Blue Tribe, while Yul and Kim probably lead the charge on the Red tribe.

So, as to the twists of this season. Edge of Extinction is back once again, and as I hope I’ve made clear, I am not a fan. It either takes up too much time in the game or produces an unsatisfying winner, neither of which is a good outcome for the show. That being said, since these players know about it going in, and since I doubt they’ll award an Edge of Extinction returning player, I’m hopeful that this will be like Redemption Island on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, and be an element that is ultimately more of a time-wasting irrelevance than something that actively makes the season awful. Thus, I will not hate the season immediately for having this twist, but it is on thin ice. I also see this Edge of Extinction either having no quitters ever (due to just how determined people are this season) or having a ton of quitters (due to people saying “I’ve won before, I don’t need to starve again for a shot to get back in”), either of which would be a more intriguing dynamic than what we got the first time, though again, it leads to far too big a jury. The $2,000,000 prize money is an appropriate touch, though I do kind of wish that it was $3,000,000, just so that the winner of this season automatically won the most money off of “Survivor” no matter what. An then, there are the “Fire Tokens”. If, for some reason, you are coming to me first, Fire Tokens are a “currency” added to this season of the game. People on Edge of Extinction offer items such as food up for sale in exchange for these tokens, which they in turn can use to make the return challenge easier. This… is actually not a bad idea. True, I am annoyed that it’s putting more emphasis on Edge of Extinction, but it gives the people there something to do that’s more connected to the game, and unlike some twists, I think has interesting social implications. I don’t know how many of you remember the old show “Pirate Master” but I liked it, and one of the things I liked most was that you earned prize money as you went, but could trade it with other players in the hopes of swaying them to your side. It added a new social dynamic, and a new value to the money, and I think it could work well on “Survivor”. Even the willing of tokens if voted out I don’t mind, as they’re not as powerful as a Legacy Advantage, and do emphasize the social aspect of the game. So, in conclusion, I think the idea of Fire Tokens area an intriguing new addition to the game… FOR A NEWBIE SEASON!

Soapbox time, but this, to me, is what’s wrong with modern “Survivor”: no pacing. Contrary to some, I would not want a season free of all idols and advantages. While we complain about them, the fact is they can help shake up the game, and make Pagongings slightly less likely. Yes, the early seasons were hardly boring, but at this point, we can’t really go “back to basics” without a bit of culture shock. No, my issue with modern “Survivor” is the rate at which it GIVES OUT these new twists and advantages. While an exaggeration, it feels like every season has five new elements added to the game. I get the need to innovate. I agree with changing things up to prevent us seeing the same show over and over again. But PACE YOURSELF! This season has returning players. Returning WINNERS! A twist fans have been begging for for years! That, plus hidden immunity idols and MAYBE one extra advantage is all you need. Save your new ideas for a future season. You could build an entire season around the idea of Fire Tokens! Why waste the idea on a season we were already excited for anyway? This is especially perplexing to me since the show now seems rooted in Fiji, and NEEDS to have a theme for each season, since the locations aren’t distinct any more. Why do you throw out so many ideas at once, when ONE will do? “Survivor”, in short, is shooting its bolt too early, and I think in the long run, will pay the price for it.

Still, I’ve been wrong before. Perhaps the stellar cast will overcome the other bad news about the season. I won’t be recapping the special from the week before, since I would just be recapping the recap, so I’ll see you after the premiere of “Survivor Winners at War”!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.