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Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 1: La Cage aux Fools

2 Mar

To all those who complain that the show is too “game-botty” now.  To the people who claim they “only cast superfans” who “only make the correct moves”.  To those who claim this is now nothing more than chess on tv.  To those people, I present to you the premiere of “Survivor 44”: A chaotic mess that was nonetheless very entertaining.  

Friends, readers, welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  Today, my knee-jerk opinion shall be on the premiere of “Survivor 44”.  Let’s recap it, shall we?

We kick things off by seeing that “Survivor” is taking a cue from YouTube, and letting some of the behind-the-scenes production show to be more relatable.  Carolyn is supposed to bring us in by just talking about herself.  You know, where she’s from, what she does, the basic stuff.  So enthused is Carolyn, though, that she can’t even manage to do that, and breaks out into hysterics.  She asks the poor producer for clarification, and the poor guy just tries to give examples, only making Carolyn break down further.  

While fairly generic overall, with the likes of Claire giving us the “Here’s why I’ll be good at this game” moment, that’s not the only fun moment our introduction to the season brings to us.  Jaime tries to shill for Windows by talking about speaking things into existence and punctuating them with a “Bing”.  Give it up, Jaime.  Google has won.  Most fun, however, is the “How excited I am to be here.“ montage.  Would be a pretty standard thing, were it not for the fact that the editors flawlessly intercut multiple confessionals from multiple people into one big sentence.  That’s some good editing, right there.  

Proving that the show really is willing to acknowledge old seasons, we get a montage of some of the greatest moments from some of the most beloved seasons past, and also “Survivor Edge of Extinction”.  

Ok, ok, I’ll be fair.  For all the crap I give that season and all the crap I say it deserves, the bit they focus on is Reem, and if you’re going to HAVE to acknowledge that season, Reem is a good part to acknowledge.  

Getting to the mat, we’re formally introduced to our tribes, and get more “excited to be here” confessionals, Matthew on Ratu and Yam Yam on Tika being highlighted here.  We’re then introduced to our now standard challenge to earn a pot and flint.  Pairs from each tribe will race under a bamboo crawl to a mud pit to retrieve pairs of puzzle pieces.  Once everyone has run the course, two members will solve a puzzle, arranging geometric blocks into a rectangle.  Then, three other tribe members will need to hurl hoops from the ground off over a pole, with a crosspiece near the top to make it difficult.  Not the grandest challenge, but these early episode challenges usually aren’t.  We’ll see how they do with immunity.  

That said, there is ONE change from the past few seasons here, and it’s one I’m a fan of.  You see, this challenge is no longer “Winner take all”.  Yes, the first tribe done still wins their supplies, but there’s a benefit to coming in second.  You do that, you get the same choice in the other seasons, “Savvy of Sweat”.  The third tribe, however?  Has to do what the other tribe chose not to do.  Genuinely, this is a good change I hope sticks around.  Apart from making the challenge a bit more tense, since second place now matters, this also adds a new dynamic in choosing which task to do to earn your pot and flint.  Do you pick what you think you’re best at, or do you pick the one that you DON’T want the other tribe doing?  It’s a valid strategic dilemma, and one that I hope comes back.  

Right from the first leg, the gratuitous slow-mo is broken out.  I’m prepared to rail against its overuse as always, but no, this one actually has a purpose.  You see Bruce, the oldest person on the cast, and thus naturally the oldest on the Tika tribe, has a little bit of red coming out of his head.  Then some more.  Then a lot more.  Until finally, Probst has to stop the challenge to call medical.  Up until that point, I’ll admit, I thought the show was milking a minor injury for shock value.  Yes, that’s a lot of blood near the head, but even minor head wounds bleed profusely.  Yeah, there’s concern since he plunged in the mud right afterward, which I’d say would lead to a big infection risk, but that’s not something immediate.  

But no, I’m wrong here.  Bruce is feeling lightheaded, and thus we get medical.  He is thankfully all right, and so happy is this group of players that not one of them even gives a pat “I was kind of hoping he’d leave to make it farther for me.”, and all simply applaud.  Nice and heartwarming.  

Tika was naturally last back with their pieces following Bruce’s bash, but actually finish their puzzle first, proving how little the physical portion of a challenge actually matters when it comes before a puzzle.  But this one, you see, requires finesse at the end, and Soka is not far behind, wisely copying the completed puzzle on Tika’s side.  Ratu takes a bit longer, despite having TWO puzzles to copy off of.  Boy, this does not bode well for their puzzle skills.  Lucky for them, someone decided Carolyn should be the first ring-tosser for Tika, and either they weren’t allowed to switch out, or Carolyn just chose not to.  Either way, she’s bad at it.  Give her credit, though: She remains positive throughout.  

Soka understandably wins outright, and thanks to Carolyn’s performance, Ratu comes in second.  We head off to our beaches, with Soka and its jovial attitude coming first.  Everyone does the usual go around, introduce themselves thing, but no one really wants to go off on their own, and everyone just seems copacetic.  Danny in particular notes that he was expecting at least one obvious person who didn’t fit in, one obvious first boot, and is somewhat surprised there’s no one like that.  

Hope you enjoyed that Danny content, because it’s literally all you get this episode, aside from one mention where he isn’t even on-screen.  

In order to insert some drama into this happy tribe, Matt, Claire, and Frannie happen upon a birdcage.  A locked birdcage, but with a bag containing their tribe emblem on it.  The three contemplate trying to keep it to themselves before realizing “Oh wait, this thing’s out in the open, anyone can stumble across it!”  They thus wisely inform the rest of the tribe.  It’s left there for now, but the mystery of what this thing is and how it works is truly effective!  I sure hope that we don’t learn the results in the same episode, or if we do, those results aren’t thoroughly disappointing!

Ratu, meanwhile, is in the process of making their decision.  The “Sweat” option involves two people hauling a bag back and forth between two piles of coconuts, picking up one coconut at a time and putting it in a bag, naturally getting heavier the longer the task goes.  The “Savvy” option meanwhile remains a mystery as to the specifics, though we know that only two can work on it, and only get one guess.  Already, the dilemma of which to choose pays off.  Ratu did fine on the physical portion of the challenge, but not so good on the puzzle, whereas Tiva was the opposite.  Thus, if Ratu picks what follows their strength, they also give Tiva their stronger option.  On the other hand, if they pick the option Tiva would be best at, they put themselves at risk of not getting anything either  In the end, Ratu decides to level the playing field, and let both themselves and Tiva play to their strengths, which I overall can’t fault them for, despite how Tiva will mock them.  Counter-picking against Tiva would, in the long run, only serve to strengthen Soka.  

Tiva thereby gets the honor of showing us what our “Savvy” challenge is.  Basically, two wire spheres, one nested in the other, hang around, and the two must correctly calculate how many wires there are.  Given that Carson and Helen, our two puzzle-solvers this time around don’t just go up and physically count them, or at least hold them still to stop the spinning, I’m assuming there was a rule about “No touching the puzzle after it’s revealed.”  Carson notably did NOT want to do this, not wanting to come off as too smart too early, but wisely does not protest too much, lest he rock the boat.  Luckily, the pair get it easily, as Helen quickly hits upon the correct way to figure this out; observing the hubs of wires and counting from there.  Tiva also finds their birdcage here, but again, nothing really comes of it.  More of note is Yam Yam starting the fire for the tribe after Carson gives it a go and fails.  Carson had practiced at home, but Yam Yam has more experience on the beach, and we get some flashbacks to his life in Puerto Rico.  You see, show?  When the flashbacks are NATURAL, they work much better!

Having less success is Ratu, where Matthew and Brandon, as the two physically strongest guys out there, are having a harder time with the challenge.  They do eventually win, but it’s near sunset and the hourglass has visibly almost run out when they do, so this is probably the closest anyone’s ever come to failing this task.  If nothing else, it does bond the pair, and we get the first inkling of what could be called an “alliance” this season.  Ratu also comes across their birdcage here, but yet again, nothing on it.  At least for now.  

We’re not done with the first night, however!  You see, for all that Bruce was cleared to continue in the game, he still needed monitoring.  He unfortunately starts fading fast that night, and medical comes back.  They don’t like what they see, and it quickly becomes clear that Bruce will need to be pulled from the game.  Saddening.  There’s no other way to describe it.  It’s not as bad as if he’d had to be pulled before even the first challenge was finished, but still, not even 24 hours.  That’s barely anything off the “Survivor” bucket list.  Hell, even Jonathan and Wanda on “Survivor Palau” got a full day and a “vote” of some sort.  I do hope that Bruce gets another chance in some form, because he seemed like a nice guy, and deserves to at least get more “Survivor” milestones than “One Challenge”.  

Also, note to the show for the future: THIS is how you use Probst during a medical situation.  Let medical come in, do their job.  Let THEIR words and actions be the one to help us understand the situation, and the gravitas therein.  Only when someone needs to be pulled, right at the end, do you bring in Probst, for a quick summation and a dignified sendoff.  A little bit to show respect, but not so much that he dominates.  That’s all I ask.  

Unaware of the overnight tragedy at Tiva, Soka begins the next morning on a quest to make fire.  Initially the tribe wants to wait for Danny, whom, as a fireman, they believe will be best at starting a fire.  Tom Westman (“Survivor Palau”) suddenly breaks out in a sweat, fearing he will be called in for the “Losah Job” again.  Thankfully for both Tom and Danny, Heidi is not one to just sit there and let someone else do the job.  She takes it upon herself to do, and does nit well, starting fire for the tribe.  Good for her.  

Matt and Frannie, meanwhile, have taken up the job of weaving palm fronds.  Matt jokes about how bad he is at it, noting that the holes are big enough for rain to get through, which fortunately Frannie finds funny.  Very funny, in fact.  The pair quickly bond, and agree to stick together.  An alliance, yes, but also with a lot of flirtatious overtones that it’s plain to see will bud into a showmance.  Has it been long enough that people have forgotten how dangerous these types of bonds can be, or will they still be nipped as soon as their found out?  Remains to be seen, but my money’s on the latter.  

Over at Ratu, Matthew is taking charge.  He’s the one directing things around the camp, and everyone knows it.  Strangely, this does not seem to make him a target that we see, and everyone seems to like him.  Perhaps this is because Matthew is just so vivacious, so full of energy.  He describes this as his “Mid-Life Challenge”, noting that he left his husband and four year old son to play the game, and wants to make the most out of every moment.  Admittedly tying this into his mom working at the YMCA is a bit forced, but hey, still more natural than most of the flashbacks last season, and it speaks well for Matthew that something that would normally paint a huge target on someone’s back doesn’t seem to hurt his game too much.  

No, the thing most hurting Matthew’s game, is, well, Matthew himself.  You see, so enthused is he that he climbs that rock we saw him climbing in that preview.  Why?  No idea!  We saw him talking about hunting for crabs, but somehow I don’t see crabs enjoying the top of the rock so much.  

Sure enough, Matthew falls, and from there it’s a roller-coaster.  First Matthew calls that he needs medical for his arm.  Then his arm pops back in, having merely been dislocated, and he says he’s fine.  But then there’s blood gushing from his foot, and one of his toes looks bent.  Basically, Matthew is just all the injuries from the opening challenge of “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” in one guy.  Medical does need to come out, and he’s clear to stay, but no heavy lifting from him.  Kent, our resident Canadian for the season, notes this is an issue, both because it doesn’t speak well of Matthew’s decision-making skills, and that they’re now down a strong tribe member for challenges, at least in the short-term.  

Back on Tiva, and oh hey, alliance talk?  Glad to get more than just pairings HALFWAY THROUGH THE EPISODE!  With Bruce gone, Carson and Helen build on their teamwork from earlier, roping in Sarah since she seems the most level-headed.  Most people look level-headed next to Carolyn, admittedly.  Speaking of Carolyn, while she may be a bit loud, and sometimes erratic, she is not a moron.  She realizes that three people talking on their own, especially when she had been closest with Bruce prior to his evacuation, means she’s probably on the outs.  That said, she notes that she can’t pull an Abi-Maria (“Survivor Philippines”, though admittedly the particular incident I’m thinking of is from “Survivor Cambodia”) and just bluntly go over and interrupt their conversation.  A truly tricky situation.  You don’t want conversations without you, but you don’t want to come in like the proverbial wrecking ball, either.  How will Carolyn handle this tense situation…

Oh look, there’s the boat to take someone on a journey!  Gee, sure glad that DIDN’T interrupt the first truly interesting strategy we’ve had in a while, and a good old-fashioned social dilemma!  SO GLAD this is the direction the show’s going in.  

Carolyn does try and parlay her way onto the boat, but unfortunately for her Yam Yam, the one person who might be willing to back her up, also wants to go, and so they resort to drawing sticks.  This leads to Sarah going, after we see Yam Yam do his best “The Price is Right” impression with his “Come on Down”.  By sheer coincidence, Soka also uses this exact same method, leading to a reluctant Matt going.  Ratu is the one that breaks the pattern, though still randomized.  They draw rocks instead of sticks.  Unfortunately they didn’t think to watch the watchmen.  Lauren was the one who organized the rocks, and rigged it so she would get to go.  Would have been nice to have a better explanation of HOW she rigged it, but good forward thinking regardless.  Can’t argue with the results, kudos to her.  

Ratu will not waste time while she’s gone, though, and decides to have a group hunt for the key to the birdcage, speculating that it might be a challenge advantage for the tribe.  After the usual confessionals about how hard it is to find, Brandon comes across the key in a log.  Maddy is nearby, so Brandon, not trusting her, tries to play it off like he found nothing.  Unfortunately for him, two things are true: Maddy is EXTREMELY close by, and Brandon is not a good actor.  Maddy makes it clear in confessional that she knew Brandon had found something in the moment.  Thus, Brandon’s decision to come clean, while belated, makes sense.  Maddy suggests keeping it to themselves, but Brandon, spooked, comes clean to everyone anyway.  Which makes sense, if he thinks it’s some advantage for the tribe.  

It is not.  It’s an idol and a fake idol, both of which Brandon now possesses.  

And thus, now we talk about the Birdcage twist, and how ultimately disappointed I was.  Something this powerful being out in the open, along with the lack of instructions, was a great setup!  A mystery for both contestants and audience, keeping everyone engaged!  When all is said and done, though, it’s just another idol.  Adding in a fake idol as a bonus doesn’t really seem like much.  On top of that, what happened to “You have to earn everything in the new era”?  True, you had to hunt for the key, and I suppose if you’re not Brandon try and secret it away publicly, but there’s no potential consequence for grabbing that idol like there has been.  You know, one of the GOOD things about the past few seasons?  This is little different then a regular idol hunt, and easier than some.  Want to talk to the cast of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, who had to find a special tool to attach to a stick to release a key to unlock a box with an idol?  I think not.  Now, some of this was just outside the show’s control.  While the reveal would always be underwhelming, it’s not on the show that someone figured it out so quickly.  But some sort of consequence beyond the public location would be nice.  

Now, the way for Brandon to play this off is to talk about using it for the tribe.  As we’ll see, however, Brandon is using it for Brandon.  

Ok, maybe we’ll get some better stuff on our journey.  We’ll hold off on the gimmick for the season, as it’s so often the bonds made and how those impact individual decisions that matter more in the long-run…

Oh, they’re already going their separate ways to make a “decision”, without us hearing a word between them beyond introductions.  Again, show, thanks SO much for shoving aside interpersonal interaction in favor of more twists and advantages!

Even the “decision” at the end of the journey is a bit of a letdown.  I use quotation marks here because everyone is FORCED into a certain action as their first one.  Each individual has picked a path, with no further information known, and comes across a bag.  Rather than being able to choose to walk away, they MUST pick at least one shell out of the bag.  One contains an advantage, the other two are a lost vote.  Then, admittedly, each individual does make a decision.  They may either reach into the bag again, giving them better odds of getting something out of the journey, but also potentially losing votes at their next two Tribal Councils.  Now, I see what they’re going for here.  “Sunk Cost Fallacy” (i.e. believing that since you’ve already lost your vote anyway, you might as well try and get something out of it, even though your odds are still a coin flip) and all that.  But the thing that made the journey work on the other seasons was the interactivity.  Not just the talking on the way up, I mean, but how the other player’s choices impacted you.  You had to go based on what you thought other people might do.  Here?  You’re forced to a choice, no other interaction required.  The only “choice” that involved the other people was picking which path to go down, and with no information about what is down a given path, that’s just random chance, no strategy at all.  

Speaking of random chance, we get all three possible scenarios for a bag draw in one episode.  See, show, it’s things like this that make people think you’re rigged.  

We also learn here that not all paths are created equal.  The two people (Sarah and Lauren) who do get advantages get ones of very different power level.  Now, I know I said I DIDN’T want things to be the same for everyone in my very last blog, and I stand by that, but the balancing could be done better than this!  While Matt gets nothing, Sarah, after losing her vote, gets the “Inheritance Advantage”.  Now, the rules went by kind of quickly here, so forgive me if I’m wrong on this, but by my reckoning, here’s how it works: Sarah declares that she’s playing it publicly at Tribal Council, before anyone plays any idols or advantages.  Then, any idols or advantages that DO get used go straight to her.  SECRETLY.  Forgive me, but this seems slightly overpowered.  Now, it could be worse.  Having to play it publicly and before anything else gets played are both correct calls.  Expiring at the final 7 is also probably necessary.  But getting EVERYTHING?  When you can have 3 or 4 advantages played at one Tribal Council?  That seems a bit much.  And bear in mind, it’s not like people will KNOW this is what it does.  This is the first we’ve ever seen this advantage; Sarah can make up whatever lie she wants to about it.  Granted, this will make it somewhat underpowered in subsequent season, since everyone WILL know what it does, but at least then it will still work as an advantage-deterrent.  As such, I think I feel about this they way some others feel about Knowledge is Power: Too much for one person to have.  

Contrast with Lauren, who gets one of the best new advantages I’d say this show has had in a long time: Bank a Vote.  At one Tribal Council, of her choosing, Lauren may choose not to cast a vote, but instead take a parchment back with her.  Then, at any subsequent Tribal Council, she may use it as an extra vote.  Great advantage!  Valuable, but requires some risk to use.  Powerful, but not game-breaking.  And she didn’t even lose a vote in getting it!  

Great stuff, but you see why there’s a power disparity between what the two ladies got.  How would I resolve this?  Well, assuming we’re not going to just come up with a more equivalent advantage to the Bank a Vote, I say make the choice of path an informed choice.  Have the sign say something like “You will each have to draw a shell from a bag at the end of whatever path you choose.  One shell will have an advantage, the rest will lose you a vote.  The first path has three shells in total, the second four, and the third five.  However, the more shells a path has, the more powerful the advantage.”  Then, people make an informed choice about how much they want to risk.  Plus, you can then either have people be able to go down the same path, and thus open more collaboration opportunities to increase odds for themselves, or force them down separate paths, leading to negotiating about who gets what path.  Either way it’s interesting, leads to a more informed choice, and gives players a bit more agency than they currently have.  

Naturally, after writing a blog about how the journey system in the new era makes lying about your trip all but impossible, naturally all three of our players lie.  Matt and Sarah tell half-truths, admitting they lost their vote, but not admitting to the results of their second draw, while Lauren just outright lies and says she lost her vote.  Admittedly, this is a lie she could possibly get away with, since banking her vote means one less vote at Tribal Council.  Yet another reason to like this advantage.  

Off to our challenge, and it’s sadly in the category of “tough but generic”.  Our tribes race out in boats around a buoy, haul a crate onto the shore up to a ramp a la “Survivor Samoa”.  They then pull that crate over a ramp with lots of peaks and valleys, only to find a key to unlock a giant slide puzzle, with the first two tribes winning immunity and keeping their flint.  The sheer scale and physicality, seen much more rarely these days, keeps me from hating this challenge outright, but MAN do I long for original challenges.  I’ll be touching on this more later on, but this season has a really strong medieval theme, and I kind of love it.  If ONLY the challenges could be original ones to match that theme.  

Probst also takes the time to let us know that Bruce is ok, which is nice.  Everyone claps.  Say what you will about this season, but the cast is very NICE, which particularly after some of the bitterness at the end of last season is refreshing.  This is also where we get the reveal of the immunity idol for the season.  I would talk about it, but I need a quick bathroom break, so please sit through this commercial while I do so.  Won’t take long.  

WHO’S THAT IMMUNITY IDOL?

*commercial plays*

IT’S AEGISLASH!  

Aegislash!

It’s times like these where I really wish I had the skills to do these as video, rather than as written blogs.  That joke would have worked so much better visually.  

For the non-Pokemon initiated, our Immunity Idol this season is a sword stabbed through a shield, separating to become two separate idols as needed.  Frankly, this idol is nothing short of BADASS!  One of the best I’ve seen in a long time, and certainly helps this season stand out from the others aesthetically.  Again, if only the challenges themselves could keep up that aesthetic.  

While we can be fairly certain, given the relative lack of strategizing from them, that Soka will not be going, it’s a toss up as to who loses between Tika and Ratu.  Fittingly, they keep it back and forth, but things don’t look good for Ratu when Tika gets to the puzzle first.  Again, they seem to be the puzzle tribe.  Making matters worse is that Brandon, their physical anchor with Matthew injured, goes too hard in the challenge, and medical is called in.  He’s ok, but has to sit out the rest of challenge.  Not that I think Ratu was winning with their puzzle skills, but it certainly didn’t help matters.  Tika gets second, and Ratu loses their flint.  Scared as I am for Matthew, probably the most interesting in terms of tribe dynamics so far.  

More interesting than the challenge, however, are our sit-outs.  Oh, not who they are.  Matthew sits out for Ratu, given his injury obviously, and Claire, who appears to be the least physical of Soka.  No, what’s interesting is that Matthew’s charm seems to extend even to people outside his own tribe.  Claire says she likes him, and so gives him information, conferring with him about the results of the journey.  Matthew notes the lost vote Lauren said she had, but Claire notes that Matt on her tribe SHOWED the paper.  Given that Lauren did not, this makes Matthew suspicious.  

This suspicious quickly turns to targeting.  Matthew throws Lauren’s name out to basically everyone but her, though particularly Brandon and Kane, which they readily agree to.  Matthew’s logic makes sense, and while it was by no means the thing that cost them the challenge, Lauren did visibly struggle in the water.  Understandable for a Texas native, but still, not good when swimming challenges have a strong possibility of coming up.  

Maddy, however, has not forgotten Brandon’s mistrust of her.  Mistrust begets mistrust, and so Maddy goes to Lauren about voting out Brandon, getting Kane and Jaime on board to make a majority.  Lauren readily agrees since, you know, the alternative is her getting voted out.  They then go to Jaime, who evidently finds the pressure of being the swing vote too much, and says she’s going to use her shot in the dark.  Excuse me, WHAT?  Jaime, you are in arguably the BEST position on this tribe!  Everyone is coming to you with plans, no one is targeting you.  Why not vote?  Because you don’t want to make a decision?  THAT doesn’t bode well for your game.  

Kane not being super on-board with the Brandon plan seems to put the kibosh on it, but thankfully for misdirection, Brandon has not forgotten his and Maddy’s feud either.  He feels Maddy is more of a strategic threat than Lauren, and thus wants her out first.  Maddy, meanwhile, still tries to resuscitate the Brandon boot, going to Matthew to try and get a solid 4th.  Matthew protests strength, but she argues that he, her, and Kane will be enough.  Not sure why anyone would buy that, since Matthew’s arm is still in a sling and Kane does not seem particularly strong, but hey, you say what you have to.  Matthew notes that he’s closest to Brandon, but if the majority is going that way, will not want to rock to boat.  

As we head off to Tribal Council, can I just say how AMAZING it is that Matthew’s name is not even BROUGHT UP to boot this episode?  Not that I wanted it brought up of course.  After all, I like the dude a lot (pointless rock climb notwithstanding), and am rooting for him.  But with his arm in a sling, you’d think someone would at least MENTION it!  Chalk it up to his social game, I guess.  

Like our immunity idol, our Tribal Council set is nothing short of EPIC!  In keeping with the medieval theme, it’s a ruined castle, and they go all-out!  The desk with the parchment is a chessboard.  A gargoyle looms over the “Walk of Shame”.  THERE’S A FREAKING CATAPULT AT THE ENTRANCE!  Yes, it absolutely does not fit with Fiji, but if we’re stuck there anyway, I’ll take whatever unique designs I can get.  

Sadly the content of our Tribal Council does not match the aesthetic.  Gone are the days of hard-hitting questions.  Instead, Probst asks about how good everyone feels, and we get more metaphors that have honestly slipped through my head leaving zero impact.  Very ho-hum overall.  

Oh, wait, Probst did actually deign to give at least ONE hard-hitting moment.  The subject of the birdcage is brought up, and Brandon makes it clear that, in his words “The idol is for Brandon”.  Brandon, buddy, no.  This is not how you want to play it.  When you’ve got so public an idol, you need to sell it as being a group thing, not a “yourself” thing.  This is REALLY not the path to go down.  

Tribal Council discussion may be humdrum, but our voting is anything but.  Jaime announces her Shot in the Dark plan, and follows through.  So, we find out, did Matthew.  Now, in his case I’d say it’s a LITTLE more justified.  After all, while WE know he wasn’t at risk, he didn’t, and logically might believe he could receive votes.  That said, given his conflict over what to do with Brandon, it comes across to me more like he didn’t want to offend one side or the other.  Fair enough, but it still makes you look wishy-washy.  Jaime as well, though at least she is “Safe” out of the bargain, the first person to do so via Shot in the Dark.  She had literally NO votes against her anyway, but technically still the first.  

Adding onto this chaos is Lauren choosing to bank her vote.  Props to her, I would not have had the guts, knowing my name had been brought up.  Honestly, the most sensible move out of all of these is Brandon who, after seeing all this go down, plays his idol.  Understandable, both as he knows his close ally didn’t vote, and as the idol is a stigma he needs to get rid of.  Sure enough, Kane and Maddy both went for Brandon.  Brandon, left to his own devices, went for Maddy, who gets sent home with but a single vote.  I do feel for her, going down without a majority against her, but I’m not too sorry to lose her.  She wasn’t a bad character, and a decent strategist, but overall just kind of generic and I kept forgetting who she was in crowd shots.  Not a great character lost, is what I’m saying.  

Much like the strategy of Ratu, this episode is an enigma.  I love it, but for very different reasons than usual.  The strategy was messy at best overall, and once again, we lost time on more interesting interpersonal dynamics in favor of gimmicks.  But the episode was so different, so entertaining compared to a lot of recent episodes, that I still love it.  Partly it’s the aesthetic of the season helping it stand out, but it’s also how we’re not seeing ideal strategy.  Granted, I’d like at least Matthew to play a little better, but he’s hardly the worst of the bunch, and it does lead to insane situations you don’t see as often.  Ultimately, though, I think it’s the positive cast that really puts this episode over the top.  Their charm, their sheer joy at being there, is infectious, and just makes the episode fun to watch.  Hopefully they can keep it up!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  amil

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Edge of Extinction” Cast Assessment

1 Feb

Greetings and salutations, loyal readers! Welcome back to “Idol Speculation” my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to! As you might expect from the re-emergence of this blog, the case for “Survivor Edge of Extinction” has been announced! Is this a cast that will bring us to the edge our seats, or the edge of our tolerance? Let’s find out!

Before we begin, though, a quick note. There’s not a lot to say pre-thoughts this time, since there’s no themed division of the tribes, and I’ll be saving my overall thoughts on the theme for the end of the blog. However, my now recurring point about going off of very little information (due to no full videos apart from a generic season preview on the CBS website) aside, yes, I am aware that there are returnees on this season, but I won’t be talking about them with their tribes, instead mentioning them at the end. My reasons why will become clear momentarily.

Manu Tribe (Man, will it be easy to get them confused with the Mana Tribe from “Survivor Game Changers”)

Dan “The Wardog” DaSilva (38, Law Student/Former Military, Los Angeles, CA): Despite not being one of the people featured in the season preview at the end of “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, Dan is clearly one of the stand-out contestants of this season. He’s a big, brash military type with a distinctive silhouette and strong opinions. Makes for fun tv. The trouble is that Dan doesn’t just stand out to the audience. He stands out to his fellow contestants. And as you should know by now: STANDING OUT EARLY ON DOES NOT BODE WELL ON “SURVIVOR”! It doesn’t help his case that Dan joins a long list of people whose pet peeves seem to directly clash with the show they’ve been placed on. Dan specifically lists weak people and complainers as his two biggest pet peeves. Two types of people that I’m sure have NEVER appeared on this show before. The tried and tested voting strategy of eliminating the brash one still holds up even 38 seasons in, and I see no reason that Dan will not follow this trend. Given his physical strength, I doubt he’ll be the very first boot, and probably survive his initial tribe just fine. As soon as a swap happens, though, Dan will be too much to bear, so expect him out right then. He’ll definitely be a fun watch, just one of those great pre-merge boots in the vein of Brian Corridan (“Survivor Guatemala”), though purely from an entertainment perspective, not a gameplay perspective.

Reem Daly (46, Sales, Ashburn, VA): This is overall a very verbose cast, at least in terms of their biographies, so having Reem be so succinct is refreshing from the start. Reem’s your typical mother type, but seems to have more smarts (she lists chess as a hobby) than one would expect from her. Not as big a splash character-wise, but not the sort of person we see as often on the show, and if she plays it right, could be the next Lauren Rimmer (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”). Sadly, I don’t think Reem is going to get much of a chance to show us her stuff. Reed just does not seem like the type to me to fight tooth and nail should she need to. And she’ll need to do that, as this character type is usually an early target, due to being an easy, not-as-strong-in-challenges vote. As such, Reem will be a pre-merge boot, and I will be sad for an episode, and then move on.

Rick Devans (33, Morning News Anchor, Macon, GA): Must resist “The Walking Dead” jokes… Must resist “The Walking Dead” jokes… Ok, ok, for all my snark, I actually give Rick good odds in this game. Not to say I think he’ll win, but he’s got a long shelf-life. One qualification all news anchors need is to be personable and inoffensive to the people at home. In some cases that’s a put-on, but that’s not the vibe I get from Rick. He seems to be a fun, easygoing, slightly goofy guy, which usually portends a long life in the game, assuming there’s no major reason to eliminate you, i.e. challenge ability. While Rick is no Adonis, he doesn’t seem to be much of a slouch either, so expect him to be out when his charm can no longer carry him far. Probably making the final episode, but being an early boot on said episode. I’ll give him credit that I find his character intriguing, which is more than I can say for some of this case. While Rick has some similarities to previous contestants, his brand of charm seems like nothing else before it, and I say we’ll enjoy watching it play out.

Wendy Diaz (25, Small Business Owner, Bell, CA): Wendy is a bit of a wild card for me. She’s either going really deep in this game, or she’ll be out incredibly early. Most would say her inclusion in the pre-season preview, along with Rick, would bode well for her. To those people, I would point out that Mari Takahashi was featured in the preview for “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X.”, and look at the good that did her. That being said, I still ere on the side of her doing well on this season. Wendy is clearly a smart cookie, but apart from a cutting wit, you wouldn’t know it from her. Wendy’s big obstacle is going to be her need to take charge. Leading a business at such a young age, I’m sure she’s used to being in charge all the time. If she can lead subtly and diplomatically, as I suspect she can, she’ll do well. If she needs to take charge no matter what, that probably spells her doom, as that’s even LESS tolerated on “Survivor” than it is in the real world. Wendy’s another one who also has risky pet peeves, listing off people who don’t carry their weight and quitters. Again, two types of people I’m sure have NEVER appeared on this show before. I’m probably painting too negative a picture of her here, though, as like I say, Wendy’s a smart cookie. She’s probably out in the mid-to-late merge area, and with that cutting wit, we’ll be enjoying her all the way. Plus, she wants to bring a beloved stuffed animal to the island. I just love that.

Lauren O’Connell (21, Student, Waco, TX): You will note that CBS just had to cast someone who compared herself to Kelley Wentworth (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) on the season that featured the return of Kelley Wentworth. And, you know, put her on the same tribe as Kelley Wentworth as well, just for shits and giggles. Actually, it’s a good thing Lauren has this distinction, as otherwise she doesn’t stand out in any way. She’s nice, inoffensive, good looking. Someone who makes for a good alliance member, but will neither be a leader nor a big character on this season. Lauren is just there, filling a spot, waiting for her time to come. Given the caliber of player this season, I suspect that time will be the early merge. There’s no reason to get rid of her before then, but with how big the merges are these days, she could be an easy consensus boot who is unlikely to have an idol used on her. Thus, gone.

Keith Sowell (19, Pre-Med Student, Durham, NC): While maybe not as over-the-top as Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”), Keith does remind me of Davie. They’re both just nice, instantly likable people with a bit of nerd flare to them. The kind of person who won’t necessarily be the center of attention, but will be charming and cut a good confessional, this is just the sort of person I can get behind. However, I don’t give Keith quite as good odds as I gave Davie, despite my liking of him. Davie made it clear that he knew his charm was a weapon, and intended to use it. Keith just seems nice for the sake of being nice. That’ll get you far, even on “Survivor”, but to really succeed on the show, you’ve got to temper that with a killer instinct. I don’t know if it’s his relative youth or his personality, but Keith just doesn’t strike me as having that killer instinct. It’ll definitely take him to the mid-to-late merge area, but I don’t see it carrying him father than that.

Chris Underwood (25, District Sales Manager, Greenville, SC): While not ALL of his pet peeves fall under the category of “doom” this time around, as I doubt many political Facebook posts will abound on “Survivor”, Chris is yet another of our “dooming pet peeves” group. You see, in addition to said Facebook posts, Chris is also not a fan of laziness, and people who can’t back up what they say. GEE, I’VE NEVER HEARD OF PEOPLE LIKE THAT ON “SURVIVOR” BEFORE! All that said, Chris seems fairly laid-back, so I don’t think his pet peeves will actually be Chris’ undoing. No, rather his personality will be Chris’ undoing. Don’t misunderstand me: the dude seems likable and easygoing, with enough athleticism to make him worth keeping around. Now, if only he were here to play the game! Chris strikes me as kind of the “surfer dude” archetype, and unless that’s backed up with a LOT of brains, it usually doesn’t serve one well on “Survivor”. Chris is no moron, but he’s no brain trust either, and so I expect him out where nearly all young, athletic males leave: the early merge.

Kama Tribe

Victoria Baamonde (23, Waitress, Bronx, NY): At first glance, Victoria would seem to fall into the same category as the previously mentioned Lauren: another bland beauty who’s there for, well, her beauty and nothing else. Reading into her biography, however, Victoria’s got a lot going on beneath the surface. For one thing, amongst her pet peeves, she lists her Guinea Pig. Now, this would at first glance merely make her seem like a horrible pet owner, until you learn that her pet is actually named “Peeve”. That’s just the sort of pun I can get behind. Further, she is the rare breed of contestant to compare herself to a previous contestant of the opposite gender, going for Malcolm Freberg (“Survivor Philippines”). Not the most apt comparison in my opinion (she strikes me as a less flirty Brenda Lowe from “Survivor Nicaragua”), but I admire her willingness to think outside the box on this one. She also was valedictorian of her high school. A worthy achievement, although I do have to express my concerns about her claiming she lets everyone know this. Such braggartry can quickly become annoying on “Survivor”. Still, I’ll be watching her career with great interest. Assuming she tempers the need to brag about her GPA, I suspect she’ll do pretty well, lasting to the early-to-mid merge portion of the game, and giving us a lot of insightful commentary along the way.

Ron Clark (46, Teacher at the Ron Clark Academy, Atlanta GA): You’ll notice that I didn’t just list Ron’s occupation as “Teacher”. That’s intentional. Short of naming your children after yourself, naming your school after yourself is about the height of ego. Now, you might be thinking that Ron doesn’t have an ego, just a lot of money. To this, I refer you to him referencing HIMSELF as a sore loser, even at a simple game of “Monopoly”. Yeah, have fun on “Survivor”, guy. Every vibe I get from him is that he’s just irritating and full on himself. Add onto that him being an older player on a season that skews VERY young, along with having no obvious challenge ability (unless they suddenly combine “Survivor” with “The Price is Right” again), and you’ve got a recipe for first boot. Sad to say, but there’s just nothing about Ron to recommend him, and thus his fate is sealed.

Julia Carter (24, Medical Assistant, Bethesda, MD): As a Maryland native, let me state for the record that Bethesda DOES NOT COUNT AS MARYLAND! It’s basically just a colony of DC. With that out of the way, let’s talk about Julia as a person. If ever there was a master of the “humble brag”, Julia would be it. She has a lot of accomplishments in her relatively short life so far, and she’ll certainly mention them, but this does not mean that she’s irritating about them. She won’t be the biggest character out there, but this skill should certainly serve her well on “Survivor”. Should she get to the end of the game, should could pull out a win with a fantastic Final Tribal Council performance. She’s a dark horse to make it there, but has at least a shot at it. With a decent bit of athleticism, I see Julia securing a position as a lieutenant in the dominant alliance, and thus will probably be out in the mid-to-late merge area, though again, with enough guile, I could see her scraping a win on this one.

Eric Hafemann (34, Firefighter, Livermore, CA): I’ll admit, I had to read through the bios a couple of times to differentiate between Eric and the aforementioned Chris. Similar in silhouette and role on their respective tribes, the two do at least differentiate on personality. Both are fairly laid-back, bur Eric seems to be a bit more in the game. I don’t think he’s got the smarts to win the game, but at least he’s putting forth the effort. Eric’s game will be more intentional, but I don’t think he can overcome the stigma of the athletic male, and will thus be another early merge boot. Plus, Eric is another one with “pet peeve downside”. Sure, Eric. Hate on people who take themselves too seriously. On “Survivor”. See how far that gets you. Again, as a character, he doesn’t stand out much, but is at least inoffensive.

Aurora McCreary (32, Divorce Lawyer, Orlando, FL): Hoo boy. I’ve been complaining a lot about the pet peeves of this new group of contestants, but Aurora may be the worst of the bunch. Not to say that all of her pet peeves are likely to be on the show, but that’s mostly due to the sheer NUMBER of pet peeves she has. Let’s list them, shall we? “Know-It-Alls, ignorance, playing the ‘victim card’, any noise coming from the mouth, the easily offended, slow walkers, and people who are homophobic.” Apart from maybe those last two, Aurora can easily expect to encounter these things on the island. Add onto that the number of pet peeves listed, and the whole thing screams to me “high maintenance”, which is not a good look on “Survivor”. Don’t get me wrong: she’ll make for great drama, but she’s another pre-merge boot if I ever saw one. Will probably go out with some fireworks, but go out early nonetheless.

Julie Rosenberg (46, Toymaker, New York, NY): Julie is an intellectual with a fun-loving side. In other words, the sort of character I adore. Julie won’t be forgotten on this season, but that doesn’t necessarily bode well for her time in the game. As an older lady with a lot of ideas, I expect her to be domineering, which usually doesn’t bode well, again, particularly as this season skews young. That said, I get the sense that if anyone can overcome this obstacle, it’s Julie. She strikes me as being self-aware enough to back off and tone it down when she sees this isn’t working. But sadly, these aren’t Julie’s only obstacles. While no weakling, she doesn’t strike me as being very good in challenges, and so despite my best wishes, I suspect Julie will be a pre-merge boot. Probably a late pre-merge boot, and if she can really utilize that wit she might just make it deep, but most likely a pre-merge boot nonetheless.

Gavin Whitson (23, YMCA Programming Director, Erwin, TN): The thing that strikes me the most about Gavin is his tattoo. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a fun character as well, but that tattoo has stuck with me more than a good chunk of this cast. It’s so colorful, which admittedly probably means it’s a recent acquisition, but it’s also got a fun design. Ok, ok, on to Gavin as a character. Gavin often gets compared to a kid, or at least so he says in his bio, and I can understand why. Apart from his looks, this guy has a lot of “juvenile” interests. That said, as someone else with “juvenile” interests, I can relate. With his hidden intelligence, I think Gavin has a decent shot in this game. Where I think he might falter is in his need to not been seen as a kid. He can probably hold it in for a while, but I think eventually he’ll see that he’s not seen as a force in the game, despite probably being a power player in an alliance. Thus, he will do something drastic to get himself noticed. It will work, and he will promptly be voted off for it, since on “Survivor”, you don’t want to noticed quite that much. Still, Gavin will make for a fun ride, until he goes out in the mid-merge area.

Now onto our returnees. Since we’ve got people with multiple appearances and long season names, I’ll be forgoing most of the usual biography information, instead just listing their names, current tribes and previous seasons, in ascending order of first appearance. Thus we start with:

Kelley Wentworth (Manu Tribe, “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, “Survivor Cambodia”): Breaking the trend of everyone on “Survivor” named Kelly being, as I once put it “As bland as beige wallpaper” (perhaps the extra “e” gives her her power?), Kelley is certainly not one to be ignored. Look no further, where she lists her proudest accomplishment as “‘Wentworth, does not count’ X9”. ON a more subtle note, she also lists amongst her pet peeves people who are “basically badasses”. But lest you think Kelley’s sense of humor excludes herself, allow me to again quote her, this time on the player she is most similar to: “Kelley Wentworth from ‘Survivor Cambodia’, and I think she was also on ‘Survivor San Juan del Sur’?” In case it wasn’t clear, I am THRILLED to have Kelley back. Anyone who can bring that much humor is ok in my book. Plus, as we saw on the aforementioned “Survivor Cambodia”, Kelley brings decent strategy to the game as well. Given the crop of newbies she’s up against, I expect Kelley to do quite well. She’s well above their league, and will play circles around them. That said, Kelley is just shy of being my female winner pick for the season. Why? Well, Kelley has the downside of being the most memorable of our returnees, despite being tied for the longest gap between her last season and now. Kelley just made too big of a splash last time, and everyone’s been clamoring to have her back. Amongst the community, her name is on everyone’s lips, and while this is hardly a season of superfans, I expect that to spill over nonetheless. Kelley will have a good run initially, but falter in the mid-to-late merge area, just due to the size of her target.

Joe Anglim (Kama Tribe, “Survivor Worlds Apart”, “Survivor Cambodia”): Ah yes, for all the complaints about the addition of returnees on this season, I will give credit that for the most part, CBS picked people who would be interesting to bring back. Joe is the one exception to this rule. Now, don’t misunderstand me, I quite like Joey Amazing. Who couldn’t like Joey Amazing? He’s too nice to dislike. But unfortunately while every other returnee has the potential to bring a new dynamic to their season, Joe gives no indication that he’ll bring anything other than what he’s brought to previous seasons. Joe is Joe: A likable challenge beast who just can’t conceal his threat level or form a solid meat shield strategy well enough. There’s nothing offensive about him, but we’ve seen this before, but it’s getting old. So, what would make his strategy a winner this time, when it wasn’t the two times beforehand? Edge of Extinction. You see, Joe can now just sit around, wait, be nice to people, and win challenges to get himself to the end, having offended no one. Yes, Joe is my male pick to win the whole shebang. Much as I try to keep an open mind about this twist, I can’t help but feel that it’s an ideal set-up for Joe to win. Hence, I say Joe will win. As a side note, Joe is also the only returnee to list someone different as the player he is most like, going for Kim Spradlin (“Survivor One World”). Oh Joe. Joe, Joe, Joe. Kim Spradlin you ain’t. If it’s any consolation, you’re most Joe Anglim-esque player I know.

Aubry Bracco (Kama Tribe, “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, “Survivor Game Changers”): Do you even have to ask whether I’m excited to see Aubry back or not? As the head of the Aubry Lobby (trademark), I should hope not! That said, how do I think she’ll do this time? By process of elimination you should already know, but just in case, let me spell it out: She’s my female winner pick. My first ever two-time winner pick, in fact. It’s almost hilarious how opposite this is to the perception of Aubry coming into “Survivor Game Changers”. There she was considered a major threat, on par with the previous winners, and thus given no real chance to play the game. Thus, she got very little edit, and that plus a longer gap between the end of her last season and the beginning of this one puts Aubry in the ideal position to do well again. Granted, another season or two in between wouldn’t hurt, but it’s still a decent gap for Aubry. Add onto that a group of not-really superfans, and Aubry is poised to work her magic and take it all. Plus, again, the twist favors determination, and if there’s one thing Aubry has, it’s determination.

David Wright (Manu Tribe, “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X.”): David, in many ways is the opposite of Joe. I’m happy to see him back, but sadly he’s the one returnee I don’t see making the merge. David may not be the most talked about contestant these days, especially given the gap between his original season and now, but he’s hardly forgotten. This could be resolved with a bit of challenge ability, but sadly, David still does not have that. Being a long-term threat with no benefit in the short-term, David will be a pre-merge boot, which is a real shame, since I do like his self-deprecating humor. While he lists himself as the contestant he’s most like, he refers to himself needing a hug. David’s time will be short, but humorous. Sorry David, but you’re the sacrificial lamb of the returnees.

And there you have it! Before I talk about the cast overall, let me talk briefly about the “Edge of Extinction” twist. As I stated at the end of last season, I was skeptical of the idea, being similar to the “Redemption Island” twist on steroids, but was willing to give it a shot. With little new information about the twist coming with the cast release, my position is largely unchanged, though I will say what little new information we did get is not encouraging. Chiefly, it seems contestants will not be informed of the twist prior to the season starting. This is so that we can get reaction shots of people finding out post-Tribal Council, and to make it more likely that fewer will take the twist, being unknown and all. From a dramatic standpoint, I get this, as it does make for more dramatic post-vote-out moments, and definitely helps keep the drama of the vote-out itself, but just feels unfair. I know “Survivor” is not a game of perfect information, but it feels like this could screw up someone’s strategy through no fault of their own, and is just a wrinkle for wrinkle’s sake. Probst claims the idea is to see “how far people will go” to stay in the game, but he gives no evidence for how this new island will be any tougher than the regular island the show is shot on. This leads me to believe that it will be no different, and this is just a marketing gimmick. This is a shame, as seeing how far people would go in terms of deprivation IS an interesting psychological question. I just don’t think it will be answered here. If I’m looking for positives, I’m glad we don’t have a theme of the tribes this time on top off the “Edge of Extinction”, and it’s refreshing to see an 18-person season with only two tribes. The last time that happened was “Survivor South Pacific”, 15 seasons ago. Even I’ll admit, though, that’s stretching for positives.

Speaking of things negative, let’s talk about this cast overall. I’m not a fan. Now, I’m not saying these people are annoying or irritating. They all seem like perfectly nice, likable people, with a few exceptions. The problem here is that, despite making up the majority of the cast, these people seem to have the downside of the “Fans” on a “Fans vs. Favorites” season. Namely, they might be good players in their own right, but they just don’t stand out. They’re nice to have, but we want to see the returnees. We think they’re nice, but we click through their bios quickly to get to the people we already care about. For a new player to stand out on such a season, they have to be REALLY over-the-top. You’ll note that Natalie Bolton and Erik Reichenbach (both “Survivor Micronesia”) are the only fans really seriously talked about these days, and that, again, for how over-the-top they were. These newbies are all right, but no one really stands out as over-the-top. That said, I’m not sure eliminating the returnees here is the answer. It might make a couple of the interesting players (Victoria, Rick), stand out a little more, but without the draw of the returnees, I just see no hype for this cast. Damned if they do, damned if they don’t, basically. Not the most auspicious of previews, but I’ve been wrong before. We’ll see how things stack up in just under three weeks with the premiere of “Survivor Edge of Extinction”!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.