Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 3: We Have Wormsign!

One of the common criticisms lobbied at new-era “Survivor” is that it’s “Too nice”.  Sometimes related to the lack of drama, sometimes in relation to the backstory segments being too touchy-feely.  This is a criticism that I personally don’t agree with, but after tonight, I think I can see where people are coming from.  Even by my standards, people were a bit too nice.  

Before we delve into the love-fest, though, it’s time for another edition off…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Being honest, I nearly didn’t include this one, since I did touch on the event itself, and this is more of a missed joke opportunity than me neglecting part of the episode.  But I did love the joke, so I’m throwing it in a week late, timing be damned!  Long story short, while I discussed Danny opening the birdcage and getting his idol, and discussed the strategy related to it, I neglected to discuss Danny’s reaction to finding said idol.  The show really IS loosening up in references to past seasons, as Danny gives us the Mike Holloway trademark “Happy Dance” from “Survivor World’s Apart”.  Not that I strongly want that season in particular referenced, but hey, you do you, Danny.  

For all my snark earlier on, “Happiness” is probably too strong a word to describe Tika coming back from Tribal Council.  Yes, Yam Yam and Carolyn do celebrate, but they have the decency to wait until they’re in private, so I won’t hold that against them.  Publicly, they simply call for tribe unity, and state that the vote was not meant to exclude anyone in particular.  The sentiment is publicly echoed, but Sarah, being the person explicitly left out of that last vote, is not buying it.  Since Sarah possesses common sense, she rightly blames Carson, the swing vote, for her position.  Paradoxically, she states she trusts Carson the most, though she mainly uses this as evidence for how good he is at the game, and why she needs to watch out for him.  All conclusions I have to agree with on her end.  

Keeping the happy train going, we cut over to Ratu.  Here, we see that happiness and bad gameplay go hand-in-hand, as Kane, already on the outs, decides to dig himself deeper by singing “O Canada” for his tribe.  Not that he’s a bad singer or his tribe hates it or anything.  No, the problem is that in doing so, Kane outs himself as a Canadian.  This is a problem because, at the time this was filmed, the most two recent winners (that these players saw) were Canadian, meaning being Canadian now makes you a target.  And if you don’t believe players would be so petty as to target someone based on something like nationality, I refer you to the fear that remains to this day of women’s alliances that sprung to great prominence after only ONE successful one.  Unless you’ve got an accent, the only way one would be outed as a Canadian is if there happened to be a spelling challenge, which with the way challenges are being designed these days, seems unlikely.  Might as well minimize your threat level, and say you’re from Wisconsin or something.  

Kane is not just Canadian, though.  No, Kane is a Canadian NERD!  Because that demographic DEFINITELY doesn’t also get targeted on “Survivor”.  In this case, Kane’s nerddom tends towards the “Dungeons and Dragons” side of things, meaning he is very happy to have the sword part of the Immunity Aegislash.  Kane talks about wanting to be the hero of the game, and how it related to the sword.  He does a bit of play-fighting with it in front of the tribe.  Knowing a good opportunity when it drops in their laps, the editing team wisely cues up sound effects in keeping with the motions Kane makes.  I would mock this, but if I’m going to be honest, I would do the exact same thing were I in Kane’s shoes, so no faulting him there.  

Even switching the focus to Brandon does not get us off the happy train.  Brandon goes fishing, and while he’s not getting Rupert Boneham (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) amounts of fish, any food is good food.  He also uses the time to discuss how he doesn’t want to be seen as just a football player, and describes himself as a “Renaissance man”.  While I would dispute some of the things he uses as examples of why he is this way (while using different skill-sets, things like snowboarding and scuba diving are enough in the athletic realm that I would say they do not a Renaissance man make), I cannot deny that cooking and playing piano are pretty far out of the realm of what one would expect the skill set of a professional football player to do, so yeah, he’s got a fair point on this one.  

Soka is probably our least happy tribe out of the three, but I think that’s mostly because Frannie and Matt are monopolizing the happiness for themselves.  We see them going off and flirting with one another yet again.  We don’t dwell on it too long, though, as we instead cut back to camp, where the remaining four are having the obvious conversation of “Hey, shouldn’t we team up against the obvious pair who will never vote for each other?”  Claire in particular is gung-ho on this.  She’s the most pointed in how bad a strategy it is, and dismisses them talking about “Nerd Stuff” like “Star Wars” instead of playing the game.  Ok, I agree it’s bad strategy, but the nerd bashing is low.  In particular, it’s low coming from Claire, who mentioned in her bio that she listens to audiobooks of “The Hunger Games” to go to sleep, which I would say definitely falls into the category of “Nerdy”.  Pot.  Kettle.  Black.  

Danny, however, is going a step farther in the strategizing.  He has taken out the fake coin from the birdcage, presumably replacing it with rocks or something since it still looked full in the shots we saw.  He has wrapped the coin in paper and green string, the paper stating the traditional “Congratulations, you have found a Hidden Immunity Idol” message.  The latter seems odd to me, since from the messages we heard read aloud the ones this season DESCRIBE what the idol looks like, but I’m guessing they included a fake message in there to allow for plays such as this.  All this he has hidden in the roots of a significant-looking tree, because Danny has watched a season of “Survivor” that aired in the past 5 years.  

To top all this off, Danny then eats the part of the note detailing the coin is fake.  A bit over-the-top as a disposal method, and normally I’d say this is at least a foolproof way to prevent someone figuring out your scheme.  However, Carolyn is on this season, and we know from last episode that she’s willing to search that shit.  Danny better hope it passes through quickly.  And to those who ask how it might not pass through that quickly, I would remind you that it took Gervase two weeks on “Survivor Borneo” to have one bowel movement.  Fiber is not high in the diet of these people.  Stuff passes slowly.  

Speaking of stuff passing through, it seems Brandon’s fishing skills are not enough, as they have all collectively decided to eat worms.  Ok, so it’s presented more as a “Get the most out of your experience” event rather than “nourishment”, but still.  Jaime is the main instigator here, but pretty much everyone eats one.  Matthew is the only exception (that we see; he might have eaten one offscreen), making him instantly go up in my estimation.  

This, then segues into Jaime talking about the fun she’s trying to have here.  The earthworm eating is one thing, but it goes further than that.  She gives us what she calls the first “‘Survivor’ Houseplant” by putting some sand and a sapling in a half coconut shell.  Seems kind of pointless, but hey, it is clever and functional, and I suppose you need to do something to pass the time out there.  Props for giving us something we haven’t seen before.  

All this is very much in Jaime’s wheelhouse.  She’s the Plant Mommy, you see.  She even has a necklace to prove her bona fides in this area.  And, despite not eating a worm that we saw, it seems she even has a kinship with Matthew, owing to both of them loving the experience so much, talking with wonder about what they’re looking at as they hike together (Matthew’s arm wisely back in the sling.).  Even if he won’t partake of the worm himself, Matthew will help out Jaime in her worm-eating endeavors.  He points out a muddy patch by the water well where it seems like there might be some good worms.  But it is not worms Jaime finds, but a hidden immunity idol, specifically the one Brandon played in episode 1!  The pair agree to keep this between them, and Jaime talks about how strong this makes their bond, putting both of them in a good position.  

Good scene overall, but I want to give particular props to the producers on this one.  I rag out of love, but it HAS been getting annoying how predictable the “Significant Looking Tree” hiding place has been lately.  While not unheard-of, the water well is at least a variation, so kudos to them for…

KNOCK!  KNOCK!  KNOCK!

(Matt answers door)

MATT: Oh hey, Matthew.  I was wondering when you’d show up.  

MATTHEW: You knew I’d be coming?  

MATT: Eh, sooner or later, some contestant always improbably shows up at my house.  Given that we live in the same metropolitan area, you seemed most likely if I were a betting man.  No airfare to pay.  

MATTHEW: Ah, good deductive skills!  

MATT: So, what specifically brings you here?

MATTHEW: Well, I heard you giving production some credit for the idol hiding spot, so I just wanted to make sure it went where it was due.  

MATT: Meaning?

MATTHEW: That idol’s a fake.  I planted it myself, to help build a bond with Jaime.  I found the real one in…

MATT: Let me guess, a tree?

MATTHEW: Yup.  

MATT: Figures.  When the superfans are more creative than the production team…

MATTHEW: No doubt.  

MATT: Speaking of creative, any chance I could have a go on that backyard plywood snake maze?

MATTHEW: Sure thing, man!

(Several Hours Later)

Ok, well, this blog’s going to be late.  Talking a little more about Matthew’s move here, it is pretty standard in plan, but masterful in execution.  Dude realized there were similar looking beads on the tribe torches, and so chopped some off to use as the fake.  Given that he has the real note, he was able to use that as well.  His misdirection of Jaime seemed very natural, and he mainly used it as a way to secure an ally without giving that ally real power.  A bit cruel to lead her on?  Perhaps, but that’s the game, and given how much of a nice guy Matthew is, it’s nice to know that he CAN be cutthroat when he needs to be.  Certainly makes him go up as a game player in my estimation.  

For as impressive as Matthew’s move was, though, it pales in comparison to the editor’s here.  Based on what we saw, all this plotting and planning of Matthew’s was something that happened some time last episode.  Possibly it happened after the Tika Tribal Council from last episode, but we have no way of knowing for certain.  Either way, it would have been all too easy for them to play this exactly the same way they did Danny’s: Show us all this happening to make a payoff for later.  Now, while I’m the first to complain about the show not adequately foreshadowing stuff, here I’m ok with it.  Unlike the decision as to who gets voted off, this is not something we NEED to hear about ahead of time.  It wasn’t relevant until now, so it wasn’t shown until now.  On top of that, we get emotionally invested, since we were fooled right along with Jaime.  We need SOME foreshadowing for who gets the boot each episode, but for things like idol finds, more of the fooling of the audience, please!

Danny is having less luck with his fake idol.  Soka is doing a big group search for the thing, but no one is looking.  Danny even has to suggest that they check in the roots of significant looking trees, as opposed to just giving them a visual once-over.  I’m with him 100% when he complains about how these people don’t know how to look for idols.  They still aren’t even using sticks!  

Eventually, Matt finds the coin, and falls for it hook, line, and sinker.  He’s more subtle about hiding it than Brandon was in episode 1, but since Danny saw him nearby, he still figures it out.  Danny then proceeds to out Matt in front of everyone, because you know, the target just wasn’t big enough on Matt’s back.  He does use it to bond with Matt, which I can support.  His plan may have backfired, however.  Matt was a target already, as we saw, but with him having what most believe to be an idol, he’s now less safe to vote for.  The majority have enough votes to do a split, it’s true, but then the whole endeavor is largely pointless unless you go for Frannie on the re-vote.  Moreover, it might make people reconsider their allegiances.  Josh (yes, I’m sure there’s a Josh on this season) says that with Matt no longer being a safe vote, he might have to work with him instead of against him.  Brilliant play, Danny!  Take the target off of someone who wasn’t yourself, and leave it to an open field that includes yourself!

Also, can we just take a minute to be sorry for Matt?  Poor guy is on the outs of his tribe due to playing with his heart more than his head, loses his first two votes of the season (partially not his fault, as well), then gets his first piece of good luck in finding an idol, only for that idol to be a fake.  I know Spencer Bledsoe (“Survivor Cagayan”) is the show’s go-to Charlie Brown character, but I think Matt surpasses him as of this episode.  Unfortunately, unlike Spencer where it was kind of cathartic for him to get repeatedly denied given how arrogant he was at the start, I just feel back for Matt.  He did little to deserve this (the second vote loss was all him, though, and the pairing off with Frannie is 100% on him), and seems like a pretty nice, humble guy.  Just overall much less satisfying to see him get repeatedly screwed like this.  

I did say this was the happy episode, right?  Tika is here to bring us back to that vibe.  The tribe as a whole gets along, everyone says so!  When Yam Yam brings up a fear that his snoring will lead to him getting voted out, everyone (particularly Carolyn) emphatically denies this will happen.  Pretty much everyone gets a confessional about how well they gel; even Sarah gets in on the action.  She’s the only one who even mildly harshes the vibe, though.  She notes she’s still on the bottom, and while she is still trying to find an “in”, most of her hope rests on the tribe winning immunity.  A tall order, she tells us, unless the challenge is tailor-made for their tribe.  

Luckily for Sarah, this challenge ends in a puzzle, which seems to be Tika’s specialty.  Four tribe members start in the water, pushing a large hollow crate to the underside of two poles, where one tribe member releases a key from a spring by climbing on top of such a box.  Once ashore, they dig under a log and unlock a platform.  There, they must stack boxes with colored sides so that no side has a duplicate color.  The first teams to do so win immunity, varying amounts of fruit and tools (depending on if they get first or second place), and in the case of Tika, flint.   Losers have Tribal Council and the loss of flint awaiting them.  For all that this is the generic “Obstacle course followed by puzzle” we’ve come to know and loathe, this one at least has a cool new element in rolling the crate through the water.  It’s something we’ve not seen in a challenge on US “Survivor” at least (it may have come up on an international version; I don’t know), and helps make the challenge more memorable than your average outing.  

For all that I’ve praised Matthew this episode, I do have to ask: WHY ARE YOU THE ONE CLIMBING ON TOP OF THE CRATE?  Sitting out Lauren rather than yourself I get.  The shoulder seems to be healing, and Lauren has proven to be not so good in the water, which makes a significant portion of this challenge.  But what do you bring to crate climbing?  This is not a particularly skill-based part of the challenge.  All you need is height, where both Kane and Brandon have you beat.  Jaime may be shorter, but she’s also lighter, and therefore less likely to GRIEVOUSLY INJURE HERSELF IF SHE FALLS, UNLIKE YOU!  I’m willing to cut you some slack since your shoulder seems mostly better and you’re keeping it in the sling outside challenges (though you’ll note it does hurt again during the digging portion, though), but maybe DON’T do the riskiest portion of the challenge where you bring nothing particularly special to the table?  

Eh, I shouldn’t be worried, though.  There’s decent mystery as to who will lose between Soka and Tika, but Ratu has had basically no strategy talk outside the one scene between Matthew and Jaime.  Even that didn’t touch on targets, so it’s hard to count that.  And yep, Ratu comes in first place.  The race between Soka and Tika is tighter.  Soka, unsurprisingly given their challenge prowess, takes an early lead, helped by Tika’s box going off-course.  All are in it on the puzzle, though, and that’s where Tika shines.  When Ratu finishes first, both sides unabashedly go over to look.  This, combined with Tika’s general puzzle prowess, leads to them getting second place.  Probably the most obvious outcome (between Sarah’s comment about needing a miracle, and Soka having by far the most strategizing this episode, they were probably favored to lose), but also the most intriguing.  It’s always nice when there isn’t one dominant tribe and we get to see dynamics in all three.  Nicely reminiscent of “Survivor 42”, and given that I maintain at this point it’s the best season to come along since “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, I’m not going to complain.  

Having conspired to make Matt as big a target as possible, once they’re all back at camp, Danny sets about targeting… Claire, for sitting out every challenge so far, heavily implying that she’s the weakest tribe member they have.  Not that I don’t see the logic, but then what was the point of going so hard against Matt?  By making it look like he has an idol (since only Danny knows it’s a fake, and revealing it as such to everyone else would put suspicion on him), you now throw out an alternate target possibility, which means you are potentially another possibility!  Sure enough, Frannie is not 100% on board with this plan, and informs Claire that she’s being targeted.  And who does Claire get mad at for this?  Danny and Josh.  True, the alternate target ultimately settles on Josh rather than Danny, but this could EASILY have backfired.  Don’t get me wrong, he pulled the move itself off masterfully, but to what end?  Maybe he can turn this around to a long-term gain, but for now, it seems pointless at best.  

Why is Josh being targeted, you ask?  According to Heidi, our swing vote for tonight, he’s “shifty”.  Not that we’ve seen evidence of that, but again, there’s barely any evidence of Josh on this season.  More logically, Heidi notes that she’s closer with Claire than Josh, but Clair is more of a challenge hinderance.  With Danny saying he’ll go with whatever Heidi wants, Heidi now has the power.  Yes, someone we BARELY remember more than Josh, and that’s mostly because she’s the one who first started fire for the tribe.  

I kid, I kid.  Heidi is in a good position here.  Not targeted at all, and no matter the outcome, has the twosome of Matt and Frannie she can target with whatever three are left.  On the whole, I would say it’s slightly smarter for her to keep Claire around, since she says she’s closer with her, as opposed to being the third with Danny and Josh.  Gives her more decision-making power.  Not to mention, I don’t buy the idea of “addition by subtraction”, wherein a tribe gets better in challenges by losing someone.  Particularly in this case, where the tribe will still be able to sit one person out, given that Tika is down to 4 people.  Wouldn’t fault either move, though.  

Not content with asking the players for metaphors, Probst is now supplying the metaphors himself!  He compares the game to the gargoyle above the “Walk of Shame”, in what may be the most forced metaphor this show has ever seen.  Probst, drop the metaphors overall, but ESPECIALLY drop your own.  

For all my snark, this is actually a pretty good Tribal Council.  Discussion is, for once, centered on the dynamics of the tribe, and in particular challenge strength vs. loyalty.  I will also give Claire credit that she argues effectively for why she should stay, noting that “Tribe Strength” doesn’t just mean challenge strength, but loyalty.  How she has this over Josh, I don’t know, but it’s about the most effective argument she can make.  Also, kudos to Heidi’s poker face.  When Claire asks her is she’s changed her mind from earlier that day, Heidi stone-cold says she hasn’t, despite the fact that she’s going to vote for Claire momentarily.  None of this is the stuff of legend, but its all well-done and engaging, which I’ll take.  

Claire plays her shot in the dark despite Heidi’s poker face, and I really can’t fault Claire here.  Since Matt can’t vote, it’s up to Frannie, Heidi, and Danny who will go home.  If they vote the way Claire wants, her vote doesn’t matter.  If they don’t, this is her only chance of survival.  More justified than Jaime’s play in episode 1, but also less successful.  Claire is not safe, and then voted out unanimously.  I am really sorry to see her go.  A pre-season winner pick leaving is never easy, and nerd-bashing aside, I did really like Claire.  She had good strategy for the most part, and it hurts to only participate in one challenge (and an abbreviated reward challenge at that) before leaving.  About the only good thing about this is that Josh gets more screen time hopefully, since it would have been a low blow for him to leave without us really getting to know him.  

While perhaps not reaching the heights of the first two episodes, this one still holds up.  A bit touchy-feely maybe, but fun nonetheless, with clear dynamics and good strategy.  So far, liking the season!

The spice must flow.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 2: Holding the Bag

Cardiologists tonight curse their ill fortune.  “Survivor” had been banking on their new “birdcage” twist to capstone the season, only to have the Ratu tribe’s opening on the cage go completely off the rails.  True, it did lead to some good drama, but not the high-end strategy the show was probably hoping for.  Even if it makes for good tv, not so good for making the twist look awesome.  Heart attacks were incoming if the other two tribes didn’t succeed.  Thankfully for the producers, but unfortunately for the cardiologists, they did.  

Our range of reactions run the gamut from Ratu, coming off that hectic Tribal Council.  Surprisingly, the happiest is Matthew.  We get a little more insight into his thinking in playing the Shot in the Dark, with him stating that he wanted to see how things shook out before having to pick a side.   Of course he’s happy that Brandon stayed as well, since they’re tight.  I can see the logic there, and he does play it off well as just him being spooked by Jaime playing her Shot in the Dark, but if I’m Brandon, I’m thinking “When the chips were down, you chickened out rather than stand by me.”, and so I’m surprised no one accuses Matthew of being wishy-washy.  Then again, I suppose Brandon doesn’t have a ton of options.  

Also happy is Lauren.  So happy, in fact, that she spills the beans about her extra vote.  Um, Lauren?  WHY WOULD YOU DO THIS?!  You had the perfect lie!  Basically no one could call you on it (that she knows of; she presumably isn’t aware about Claire tipping off Matthew regarding the parchment last episode)!  Why come clean now!  It only serves to make you look sneaky!  Yes, Maryanne did that as well, but her’s was kind of an open secret anyway, though both do a good job pitching their advantage as “for the tribe” at least.  

Further down the spectrum we have Brandon and Kane (Jaime for some reason does not get to give her thoughts).  Kane, naturally, is a bit concerned since he’s the only person left on the wrong side of the vote.  He attempts to make nice with Brandon, and while Brandon doesn’t let his temper get the best of him, he is clearly unhappy.  No “Rupert Blowing up at Jonny Fairplay” moment or anything, and what Brandon SAYS in the moment is what he should be saying.  Dude just needs to work on his poker face a bit.  

Morning over at Soka, and what a shock, we’re still following the Frannie/Matt relationship.  As Matt kindly recaps for us, he’s been having kind of a rough start to the game.  Losing votes for the first two Tribal Councils is not exactly the auspicious start a superman wants.  On top of that, dude apparently had a long-term relationship end right before he left to go film.  Rough go.  Thus, Frannie to him is the one thing going right in this game.  He trusts her implicitly, enough for him to confide in her about the second lost vote, but also thinks she’s cute.  She seems to return the sentiment, with the pair playing a game of her sticking her hand through the shelter roof while Matt tries to hit it with his big, long pole.  

No, that is not me intentionally making an innuendo.  That is a legit Freudian Slip on Matt’s part that I could not make up if I tried.  Seriously, that should be shown in Psychology Classes as the textbook example of a Freudian Slip.  

Frannie is the more level-headed of the pair.  She seems to share Matt’s feelings, but recognizes that being seen as a tight pair, especially on so small a tribe, is what we would describe as “Bad”.  While she admits both to us and to Matt that she doesn’t want to do this, she talks about needing to distance herself from Matt.  A task MUCH easier said than done, and I’m not just talking about their actual doing of it.  When the pair ARE apart, Frannie talks to Heidi and Claire about how she’s intentionally not being around him.  Frannie, the point of staying apart is to minimize how connected you seem.  It doesn’t work if you tell everyone that’s what you’re doing, since it just confirms the connection anyway!  Of course, they also suck at the “actually staying apart” part of that plan, to the point where they adopt a stick bug, name it Ernest, and talk about it as though it’s their child.  A fair call back to Rupert and Balboa on “Survivor Pearl Islands”, were it not for the fact that they do this RIGHT BEHIND CLAIRE!  Claire, for her part, rightly mocks them, and notes this may be a threat to their position in the future.  

Moving on to Tika, things should be a bit more straightforward.  When you’re on a tribe with Carolyn, she’s naturally going to stand out as the obvious target.  Sure enough, Helen talks about the one thing causing dissent amongst the ranks: The Birdcage!

Yes, rather than delve into the actual PERSONALITIES at play here, we instead focus on the twist.  Because that’s what everyone wants to see!  Tika initially tries to follow in Ratu’s footsteps, with everyone searching together.  Even Yam Yam’s attempts to separate (presumably because he realizes he’s not in with the tight threesome) get shot down.  The only person actually able to go out and look on their own is Carolyn, so far on the outs that she doesn’t care about being seen that much.  Unfortunately for her, the first thing to see her is a snake, reminding us why you should always use a stick when searching for objects on “Survivor”.  

Ratu may not have a key to search for any more, but Brandon did play his idol, and so everyone’s searching for it.  Kane in particular is keen.  Despite him trying to work himself back into the tribe socially, he knows it’s an uphill battle.  Not that his searching does him any favors, but I can’t blame him too much here.  Nevertheless, he has lost social points with the tribe for his constant searching, and what has he gained?  A crab in the crook of a tree.  Does NO ONE remember to use sticks this season?  

Danny.  It seems that Danny remembers to use sticks this season.  Danny is also going about searching for anything of use, though doing it the smart way and taking looks when out doing chores for the tribe.  Granted this fools absolutely no one, but Danny does have the advantage that his strength and speed mean no one bothers to tail him.  He does eventually find the key amongst significant looking roots (alert the media), but now faces the task of getting what’s inside without anyone else noticing.  He does consider grabbing it for the tribe, before deciding that’s a stupid plan.  Danny times things well and comes up with an idol and a coin to use as a fake.  In this case, Danny decides to use it as a fake weight, leaving it in there (hopefully with a note to help indicate that it ISN’T a fake should someone else find the key.) so that his deception may not be noticed.  The bag looked noticeably less full to me, but then again, I’m eating regularly and staying well-hydrated.  It’s enough to fool some of the tribe in any case, so props to Danny on that one.  

Back at Tika, after Carolyn feels compelled to show Helen the snake, she gets back to searching (still with no stick), but has better luck this time.  After a story about searching through her son’s poop for DAYS to find a missing baby tooth for the Tooth Fairy which I guess is supposed to be inspirational, but really comes across as just weird to me.  Seriously, just have the Tooth Fairy understand and come anyway.  Point being, she finds the key, but now faces the dilemma of when and how to go about getting it.  A test of patience for even the most disciplined of players, which Carolyn is not.  As soon as she’s alone at the camp, she makes a dash for it, getting her prizes.  Interestingly, her coin is stated by her to be the correct one, while the bead chain is the fake, the exact opposite of what Danny just had.  This might be Carolyn misreading or misremembering the parchment in confessional, but I’m inclined to say that the show just made the fake and the real different depending on tribe.  And if that’s what they did… Good for them!  Good way to inject some drama into the proceedings, with people thinking reals are fake and vice versa based on their own preconceived notions.  Could make for some fun strategy as well.  

Carolyn’s happiness is short-lived when she realizes that, by not putting the empty bag BACK, everyone will realize that she found it, since she was the only one alone.  She does manage to put it back without being seen, but hers is not as close as Danny’s fake.  Carson correctly calls out that it’s been opened.  He claims to be able to read people really well, and will use their body language against them.  Psychology tells us that, unless you’re a trained secret service agent with a knack for reading micro-expressions, this is false, and sure enough, we get a round-table of accusations.  Carson misreads Helen’s general anxiety as her having it.  Yam Yam reads Sarah’s reluctance to open her bag (presumably hiding her Inheritance Advantage) as her having it.  Sarah misreads Yam Yam’s suspicion of her as him having it.  Yet, through it all, Carolyn remains uncaused.  A win for her, but I’m still not certain how we got her.  Can’t argue with the results, though.  No matter how badly I want to.  

Off to our challenge, and hey, look at the variety we get today.  We get an obstacle course ending in a MAZE rather than a puzzle!  Stop the presses, we’ve got a hot one here!  Please note the sarcasm.  

We at least get a cool “Lifting the bridge” element that we don’t often see, but yeah, this is not the stuff of legends challenge-wise.  Worse for Tika, this challenge does not end on a puzzle, costing them their greatest asset.  Even the edit can’t protect them, as it’s been fairly even between all three tribes.  

This challenge is for the newly-reassembled Aegislash, as well as varying amounts of fishing gear for first and second place.  Ratu initially falls behind due to bad luck finding a ball in a bunch of sandbags, which Probst talks about as though they’re WAY behind.  True, they’re in last at the time, but they’re hardly out of it, Probst.  In fact, despite the lack of puzzle, Ratu will eventually go on to WIN the whole shebang in first place, owing to Matthew’s skills on the “Maneuver the Ball up the Snake” ending.  Turns out the dude has a replica built in his backyard, and I now want to meet this guy even more.  Practice does make perfect, as he gets the ball in without dropping once, a feat I believe is unmatched in “Survivor” history.  Probst doesn’t make a note of it for some reason, though.  Also, while I had mad respect for Matthew’s skills in that challenge, a loss of points for boasting about defying doctor’s orders to do so.  Look, you know your body best, and that challenge didn’t look particularly bad for his shoulder, but not the sort of thing you should wear as a badge of honor, IMO.  

Despite being in the lead pretty much every part of the challenge, it looks like Soka may take the loss here.  A guy named Josh, who only showed up briefly in the introductory montage to talk about his medical issues growing up, so you could be forgiven for forgetting he’s on the season, has been blowing it for them over and over again, barely making it past the tip of the tail.  Thankfully for Soka, it seems he was just getting a feel for it, as he edges of Sarah to come in second place.  

Now the paranoid Tika must go to Tribal Council.  Sarah still doesn’t want to let on that she’s missing a vote, but does want a majority going against Carolyn, the obvious choice for a target due to her erratic nature.  I should mentioned that I erred slightly last blog: Sarah did NOT admit that she lost a vote, but instead implied she chose not to risk on a classic Shipwheel Island, a much easier lie to be called out on.  The result, however, is that Yam Yam is brought in on the plan.  Yam Yam, being smart, realizes that he should initially say “Yes” to this deal because there’s no downside, but even in the best case scenario is on the bottom of his tribe.  Thus, he warns Carolyn, and the pair plot to get someone on their side.  

They don’t have to wait long.  Carson, after congratulating Matthew on practicing the challenge, and reminding us that he 3-D prints puzzles from the show (something else brought up in the opening montage last episode I forgot to mention), decides he wants to move in “multiple worlds”.  He frames it as an “angel vs. devil” decision, but I call it “normal vs. crazy”.  Point being, while being ok with the plan to oust Carolyn initially, he goes and talks to Carolyn and Yam Yam about possibly ousting Helen instead.  The pair are on board, largely since that was the plan they wanted anyway, due to fearing Helen’s intellect.  Carolyn, however, may be the fly in her own ointment.  She can’t just talk with Carson about this.  No, she has to roll around and throw leaves over her shoulder for no apparent reason.  She freaks out about Carson, and I wonder if this is setting up an epic Carson blindside.  But no, it’s just to emphasize Carson’s role as the swing vote.  

Speaking of, which side should Carson swing to.  As the audience who has perfect information, the correct answer is to vote out Helen.  Without Sarah’s vote, the best Carson can hope for is a tie, and with the idol in Carolyn’s possession, better to play it safe, and stick with the side with the power.  In the world where Carson is in, where he doesn’t have all this information, I’d say it’s more of a toss-up.  The side with Helen and Sarah seems more stable, and thus probably the more logical choice, especially since he seems more connected with those two, whereas Yam Yam and Carolyn are clearly the tightest pair in that threesome, should he join up.  Harder to beat in the end, perhaps, but that’s a ways away.  Not to mention, siding with Yam Yam means siding with a THIEF!  Look at that hat!  That’s clearly Cody’s idol hat from “Survivor 43”!  Only he can make that hat; there is no other possible way for Yam Yam to have it apart from theft!  

Well, I said I wanted better strategy this episode, and I got it.  Unfortunately, it came at the expense of entertainment at Tribal Council.  There’s basically zero mystery, since Sarah’s lack of a vote coupled with no time for a tie means Helen is doomed.  Only two things at all stand out about the whole process.  One is the simple joy of Carolyn apparently being mystified at the number of pieces involved in a game of chess.  The other is the return of sassy Probst!  He only shows up briefly, to respond to Helen’s point that she might have no idea what’s going on and get booted for it with “That would be called a ‘blindside’” but MAN is he a welcome reprieve!  Actual pushback!  Funny quips!  Where has this host been in recent seasons!

While I completely understand why Helen got the boot this episode, I am sorry to see her go.  While Carolyn is definitely the bigger character, and will continue to lead to messy gameplay this season, Helen was the better strategist by far, and it always hurts to see those go.  Plus, she sounded truly devastated in her final words, and that’s just heartbreaking.  Hopefully she can be on the ballot for a future second chance season or something.  

Honestly, lackluster Tribal Council notwithstanding, I would say this episode holds up in comparison to the first.  Stuck a better balance of good and bad gameplay, some intrigue, and some come-from-behind plays.  A good solid mix contributing to a good solid season so far!  Shame about Helen, though.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 1: La Cage aux Fools

To all those who complain that the show is too “game-botty” now.  To the people who claim they “only cast superfans” who “only make the correct moves”.  To those who claim this is now nothing more than chess on tv.  To those people, I present to you the premiere of “Survivor 44”: A chaotic mess that was nonetheless very entertaining.  

Friends, readers, welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  Today, my knee-jerk opinion shall be on the premiere of “Survivor 44”.  Let’s recap it, shall we?

We kick things off by seeing that “Survivor” is taking a cue from YouTube, and letting some of the behind-the-scenes production show to be more relatable.  Carolyn is supposed to bring us in by just talking about herself.  You know, where she’s from, what she does, the basic stuff.  So enthused is Carolyn, though, that she can’t even manage to do that, and breaks out into hysterics.  She asks the poor producer for clarification, and the poor guy just tries to give examples, only making Carolyn break down further.  

While fairly generic overall, with the likes of Claire giving us the “Here’s why I’ll be good at this game” moment, that’s not the only fun moment our introduction to the season brings to us.  Jaime tries to shill for Windows by talking about speaking things into existence and punctuating them with a “Bing”.  Give it up, Jaime.  Google has won.  Most fun, however, is the “How excited I am to be here.“ montage.  Would be a pretty standard thing, were it not for the fact that the editors flawlessly intercut multiple confessionals from multiple people into one big sentence.  That’s some good editing, right there.  

Proving that the show really is willing to acknowledge old seasons, we get a montage of some of the greatest moments from some of the most beloved seasons past, and also “Survivor Edge of Extinction”.  

Ok, ok, I’ll be fair.  For all the crap I give that season and all the crap I say it deserves, the bit they focus on is Reem, and if you’re going to HAVE to acknowledge that season, Reem is a good part to acknowledge.  

Getting to the mat, we’re formally introduced to our tribes, and get more “excited to be here” confessionals, Matthew on Ratu and Yam Yam on Tika being highlighted here.  We’re then introduced to our now standard challenge to earn a pot and flint.  Pairs from each tribe will race under a bamboo crawl to a mud pit to retrieve pairs of puzzle pieces.  Once everyone has run the course, two members will solve a puzzle, arranging geometric blocks into a rectangle.  Then, three other tribe members will need to hurl hoops from the ground off over a pole, with a crosspiece near the top to make it difficult.  Not the grandest challenge, but these early episode challenges usually aren’t.  We’ll see how they do with immunity.  

That said, there is ONE change from the past few seasons here, and it’s one I’m a fan of.  You see, this challenge is no longer “Winner take all”.  Yes, the first tribe done still wins their supplies, but there’s a benefit to coming in second.  You do that, you get the same choice in the other seasons, “Savvy of Sweat”.  The third tribe, however?  Has to do what the other tribe chose not to do.  Genuinely, this is a good change I hope sticks around.  Apart from making the challenge a bit more tense, since second place now matters, this also adds a new dynamic in choosing which task to do to earn your pot and flint.  Do you pick what you think you’re best at, or do you pick the one that you DON’T want the other tribe doing?  It’s a valid strategic dilemma, and one that I hope comes back.  

Right from the first leg, the gratuitous slow-mo is broken out.  I’m prepared to rail against its overuse as always, but no, this one actually has a purpose.  You see Bruce, the oldest person on the cast, and thus naturally the oldest on the Tika tribe, has a little bit of red coming out of his head.  Then some more.  Then a lot more.  Until finally, Probst has to stop the challenge to call medical.  Up until that point, I’ll admit, I thought the show was milking a minor injury for shock value.  Yes, that’s a lot of blood near the head, but even minor head wounds bleed profusely.  Yeah, there’s concern since he plunged in the mud right afterward, which I’d say would lead to a big infection risk, but that’s not something immediate.  

But no, I’m wrong here.  Bruce is feeling lightheaded, and thus we get medical.  He is thankfully all right, and so happy is this group of players that not one of them even gives a pat “I was kind of hoping he’d leave to make it farther for me.”, and all simply applaud.  Nice and heartwarming.  

Tika was naturally last back with their pieces following Bruce’s bash, but actually finish their puzzle first, proving how little the physical portion of a challenge actually matters when it comes before a puzzle.  But this one, you see, requires finesse at the end, and Soka is not far behind, wisely copying the completed puzzle on Tika’s side.  Ratu takes a bit longer, despite having TWO puzzles to copy off of.  Boy, this does not bode well for their puzzle skills.  Lucky for them, someone decided Carolyn should be the first ring-tosser for Tika, and either they weren’t allowed to switch out, or Carolyn just chose not to.  Either way, she’s bad at it.  Give her credit, though: She remains positive throughout.  

Soka understandably wins outright, and thanks to Carolyn’s performance, Ratu comes in second.  We head off to our beaches, with Soka and its jovial attitude coming first.  Everyone does the usual go around, introduce themselves thing, but no one really wants to go off on their own, and everyone just seems copacetic.  Danny in particular notes that he was expecting at least one obvious person who didn’t fit in, one obvious first boot, and is somewhat surprised there’s no one like that.  

Hope you enjoyed that Danny content, because it’s literally all you get this episode, aside from one mention where he isn’t even on-screen.  

In order to insert some drama into this happy tribe, Matt, Claire, and Frannie happen upon a birdcage.  A locked birdcage, but with a bag containing their tribe emblem on it.  The three contemplate trying to keep it to themselves before realizing “Oh wait, this thing’s out in the open, anyone can stumble across it!”  They thus wisely inform the rest of the tribe.  It’s left there for now, but the mystery of what this thing is and how it works is truly effective!  I sure hope that we don’t learn the results in the same episode, or if we do, those results aren’t thoroughly disappointing!

Ratu, meanwhile, is in the process of making their decision.  The “Sweat” option involves two people hauling a bag back and forth between two piles of coconuts, picking up one coconut at a time and putting it in a bag, naturally getting heavier the longer the task goes.  The “Savvy” option meanwhile remains a mystery as to the specifics, though we know that only two can work on it, and only get one guess.  Already, the dilemma of which to choose pays off.  Ratu did fine on the physical portion of the challenge, but not so good on the puzzle, whereas Tiva was the opposite.  Thus, if Ratu picks what follows their strength, they also give Tiva their stronger option.  On the other hand, if they pick the option Tiva would be best at, they put themselves at risk of not getting anything either  In the end, Ratu decides to level the playing field, and let both themselves and Tiva play to their strengths, which I overall can’t fault them for, despite how Tiva will mock them.  Counter-picking against Tiva would, in the long run, only serve to strengthen Soka.  

Tiva thereby gets the honor of showing us what our “Savvy” challenge is.  Basically, two wire spheres, one nested in the other, hang around, and the two must correctly calculate how many wires there are.  Given that Carson and Helen, our two puzzle-solvers this time around don’t just go up and physically count them, or at least hold them still to stop the spinning, I’m assuming there was a rule about “No touching the puzzle after it’s revealed.”  Carson notably did NOT want to do this, not wanting to come off as too smart too early, but wisely does not protest too much, lest he rock the boat.  Luckily, the pair get it easily, as Helen quickly hits upon the correct way to figure this out; observing the hubs of wires and counting from there.  Tiva also finds their birdcage here, but again, nothing really comes of it.  More of note is Yam Yam starting the fire for the tribe after Carson gives it a go and fails.  Carson had practiced at home, but Yam Yam has more experience on the beach, and we get some flashbacks to his life in Puerto Rico.  You see, show?  When the flashbacks are NATURAL, they work much better!

Having less success is Ratu, where Matthew and Brandon, as the two physically strongest guys out there, are having a harder time with the challenge.  They do eventually win, but it’s near sunset and the hourglass has visibly almost run out when they do, so this is probably the closest anyone’s ever come to failing this task.  If nothing else, it does bond the pair, and we get the first inkling of what could be called an “alliance” this season.  Ratu also comes across their birdcage here, but yet again, nothing on it.  At least for now.  

We’re not done with the first night, however!  You see, for all that Bruce was cleared to continue in the game, he still needed monitoring.  He unfortunately starts fading fast that night, and medical comes back.  They don’t like what they see, and it quickly becomes clear that Bruce will need to be pulled from the game.  Saddening.  There’s no other way to describe it.  It’s not as bad as if he’d had to be pulled before even the first challenge was finished, but still, not even 24 hours.  That’s barely anything off the “Survivor” bucket list.  Hell, even Jonathan and Wanda on “Survivor Palau” got a full day and a “vote” of some sort.  I do hope that Bruce gets another chance in some form, because he seemed like a nice guy, and deserves to at least get more “Survivor” milestones than “One Challenge”.  

Also, note to the show for the future: THIS is how you use Probst during a medical situation.  Let medical come in, do their job.  Let THEIR words and actions be the one to help us understand the situation, and the gravitas therein.  Only when someone needs to be pulled, right at the end, do you bring in Probst, for a quick summation and a dignified sendoff.  A little bit to show respect, but not so much that he dominates.  That’s all I ask.  

Unaware of the overnight tragedy at Tiva, Soka begins the next morning on a quest to make fire.  Initially the tribe wants to wait for Danny, whom, as a fireman, they believe will be best at starting a fire.  Tom Westman (“Survivor Palau”) suddenly breaks out in a sweat, fearing he will be called in for the “Losah Job” again.  Thankfully for both Tom and Danny, Heidi is not one to just sit there and let someone else do the job.  She takes it upon herself to do, and does nit well, starting fire for the tribe.  Good for her.  

Matt and Frannie, meanwhile, have taken up the job of weaving palm fronds.  Matt jokes about how bad he is at it, noting that the holes are big enough for rain to get through, which fortunately Frannie finds funny.  Very funny, in fact.  The pair quickly bond, and agree to stick together.  An alliance, yes, but also with a lot of flirtatious overtones that it’s plain to see will bud into a showmance.  Has it been long enough that people have forgotten how dangerous these types of bonds can be, or will they still be nipped as soon as their found out?  Remains to be seen, but my money’s on the latter.  

Over at Ratu, Matthew is taking charge.  He’s the one directing things around the camp, and everyone knows it.  Strangely, this does not seem to make him a target that we see, and everyone seems to like him.  Perhaps this is because Matthew is just so vivacious, so full of energy.  He describes this as his “Mid-Life Challenge”, noting that he left his husband and four year old son to play the game, and wants to make the most out of every moment.  Admittedly tying this into his mom working at the YMCA is a bit forced, but hey, still more natural than most of the flashbacks last season, and it speaks well for Matthew that something that would normally paint a huge target on someone’s back doesn’t seem to hurt his game too much.  

No, the thing most hurting Matthew’s game, is, well, Matthew himself.  You see, so enthused is he that he climbs that rock we saw him climbing in that preview.  Why?  No idea!  We saw him talking about hunting for crabs, but somehow I don’t see crabs enjoying the top of the rock so much.  

Sure enough, Matthew falls, and from there it’s a roller-coaster.  First Matthew calls that he needs medical for his arm.  Then his arm pops back in, having merely been dislocated, and he says he’s fine.  But then there’s blood gushing from his foot, and one of his toes looks bent.  Basically, Matthew is just all the injuries from the opening challenge of “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” in one guy.  Medical does need to come out, and he’s clear to stay, but no heavy lifting from him.  Kent, our resident Canadian for the season, notes this is an issue, both because it doesn’t speak well of Matthew’s decision-making skills, and that they’re now down a strong tribe member for challenges, at least in the short-term.  

Back on Tiva, and oh hey, alliance talk?  Glad to get more than just pairings HALFWAY THROUGH THE EPISODE!  With Bruce gone, Carson and Helen build on their teamwork from earlier, roping in Sarah since she seems the most level-headed.  Most people look level-headed next to Carolyn, admittedly.  Speaking of Carolyn, while she may be a bit loud, and sometimes erratic, she is not a moron.  She realizes that three people talking on their own, especially when she had been closest with Bruce prior to his evacuation, means she’s probably on the outs.  That said, she notes that she can’t pull an Abi-Maria (“Survivor Philippines”, though admittedly the particular incident I’m thinking of is from “Survivor Cambodia”) and just bluntly go over and interrupt their conversation.  A truly tricky situation.  You don’t want conversations without you, but you don’t want to come in like the proverbial wrecking ball, either.  How will Carolyn handle this tense situation…

Oh look, there’s the boat to take someone on a journey!  Gee, sure glad that DIDN’T interrupt the first truly interesting strategy we’ve had in a while, and a good old-fashioned social dilemma!  SO GLAD this is the direction the show’s going in.  

Carolyn does try and parlay her way onto the boat, but unfortunately for her Yam Yam, the one person who might be willing to back her up, also wants to go, and so they resort to drawing sticks.  This leads to Sarah going, after we see Yam Yam do his best “The Price is Right” impression with his “Come on Down”.  By sheer coincidence, Soka also uses this exact same method, leading to a reluctant Matt going.  Ratu is the one that breaks the pattern, though still randomized.  They draw rocks instead of sticks.  Unfortunately they didn’t think to watch the watchmen.  Lauren was the one who organized the rocks, and rigged it so she would get to go.  Would have been nice to have a better explanation of HOW she rigged it, but good forward thinking regardless.  Can’t argue with the results, kudos to her.  

Ratu will not waste time while she’s gone, though, and decides to have a group hunt for the key to the birdcage, speculating that it might be a challenge advantage for the tribe.  After the usual confessionals about how hard it is to find, Brandon comes across the key in a log.  Maddy is nearby, so Brandon, not trusting her, tries to play it off like he found nothing.  Unfortunately for him, two things are true: Maddy is EXTREMELY close by, and Brandon is not a good actor.  Maddy makes it clear in confessional that she knew Brandon had found something in the moment.  Thus, Brandon’s decision to come clean, while belated, makes sense.  Maddy suggests keeping it to themselves, but Brandon, spooked, comes clean to everyone anyway.  Which makes sense, if he thinks it’s some advantage for the tribe.  

It is not.  It’s an idol and a fake idol, both of which Brandon now possesses.  

And thus, now we talk about the Birdcage twist, and how ultimately disappointed I was.  Something this powerful being out in the open, along with the lack of instructions, was a great setup!  A mystery for both contestants and audience, keeping everyone engaged!  When all is said and done, though, it’s just another idol.  Adding in a fake idol as a bonus doesn’t really seem like much.  On top of that, what happened to “You have to earn everything in the new era”?  True, you had to hunt for the key, and I suppose if you’re not Brandon try and secret it away publicly, but there’s no potential consequence for grabbing that idol like there has been.  You know, one of the GOOD things about the past few seasons?  This is little different then a regular idol hunt, and easier than some.  Want to talk to the cast of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, who had to find a special tool to attach to a stick to release a key to unlock a box with an idol?  I think not.  Now, some of this was just outside the show’s control.  While the reveal would always be underwhelming, it’s not on the show that someone figured it out so quickly.  But some sort of consequence beyond the public location would be nice.  

Now, the way for Brandon to play this off is to talk about using it for the tribe.  As we’ll see, however, Brandon is using it for Brandon.  

Ok, maybe we’ll get some better stuff on our journey.  We’ll hold off on the gimmick for the season, as it’s so often the bonds made and how those impact individual decisions that matter more in the long-run…

Oh, they’re already going their separate ways to make a “decision”, without us hearing a word between them beyond introductions.  Again, show, thanks SO much for shoving aside interpersonal interaction in favor of more twists and advantages!

Even the “decision” at the end of the journey is a bit of a letdown.  I use quotation marks here because everyone is FORCED into a certain action as their first one.  Each individual has picked a path, with no further information known, and comes across a bag.  Rather than being able to choose to walk away, they MUST pick at least one shell out of the bag.  One contains an advantage, the other two are a lost vote.  Then, admittedly, each individual does make a decision.  They may either reach into the bag again, giving them better odds of getting something out of the journey, but also potentially losing votes at their next two Tribal Councils.  Now, I see what they’re going for here.  “Sunk Cost Fallacy” (i.e. believing that since you’ve already lost your vote anyway, you might as well try and get something out of it, even though your odds are still a coin flip) and all that.  But the thing that made the journey work on the other seasons was the interactivity.  Not just the talking on the way up, I mean, but how the other player’s choices impacted you.  You had to go based on what you thought other people might do.  Here?  You’re forced to a choice, no other interaction required.  The only “choice” that involved the other people was picking which path to go down, and with no information about what is down a given path, that’s just random chance, no strategy at all.  

Speaking of random chance, we get all three possible scenarios for a bag draw in one episode.  See, show, it’s things like this that make people think you’re rigged.  

We also learn here that not all paths are created equal.  The two people (Sarah and Lauren) who do get advantages get ones of very different power level.  Now, I know I said I DIDN’T want things to be the same for everyone in my very last blog, and I stand by that, but the balancing could be done better than this!  While Matt gets nothing, Sarah, after losing her vote, gets the “Inheritance Advantage”.  Now, the rules went by kind of quickly here, so forgive me if I’m wrong on this, but by my reckoning, here’s how it works: Sarah declares that she’s playing it publicly at Tribal Council, before anyone plays any idols or advantages.  Then, any idols or advantages that DO get used go straight to her.  SECRETLY.  Forgive me, but this seems slightly overpowered.  Now, it could be worse.  Having to play it publicly and before anything else gets played are both correct calls.  Expiring at the final 7 is also probably necessary.  But getting EVERYTHING?  When you can have 3 or 4 advantages played at one Tribal Council?  That seems a bit much.  And bear in mind, it’s not like people will KNOW this is what it does.  This is the first we’ve ever seen this advantage; Sarah can make up whatever lie she wants to about it.  Granted, this will make it somewhat underpowered in subsequent season, since everyone WILL know what it does, but at least then it will still work as an advantage-deterrent.  As such, I think I feel about this they way some others feel about Knowledge is Power: Too much for one person to have.  

Contrast with Lauren, who gets one of the best new advantages I’d say this show has had in a long time: Bank a Vote.  At one Tribal Council, of her choosing, Lauren may choose not to cast a vote, but instead take a parchment back with her.  Then, at any subsequent Tribal Council, she may use it as an extra vote.  Great advantage!  Valuable, but requires some risk to use.  Powerful, but not game-breaking.  And she didn’t even lose a vote in getting it!  

Great stuff, but you see why there’s a power disparity between what the two ladies got.  How would I resolve this?  Well, assuming we’re not going to just come up with a more equivalent advantage to the Bank a Vote, I say make the choice of path an informed choice.  Have the sign say something like “You will each have to draw a shell from a bag at the end of whatever path you choose.  One shell will have an advantage, the rest will lose you a vote.  The first path has three shells in total, the second four, and the third five.  However, the more shells a path has, the more powerful the advantage.”  Then, people make an informed choice about how much they want to risk.  Plus, you can then either have people be able to go down the same path, and thus open more collaboration opportunities to increase odds for themselves, or force them down separate paths, leading to negotiating about who gets what path.  Either way it’s interesting, leads to a more informed choice, and gives players a bit more agency than they currently have.  

Naturally, after writing a blog about how the journey system in the new era makes lying about your trip all but impossible, naturally all three of our players lie.  Matt and Sarah tell half-truths, admitting they lost their vote, but not admitting to the results of their second draw, while Lauren just outright lies and says she lost her vote.  Admittedly, this is a lie she could possibly get away with, since banking her vote means one less vote at Tribal Council.  Yet another reason to like this advantage.  

Off to our challenge, and it’s sadly in the category of “tough but generic”.  Our tribes race out in boats around a buoy, haul a crate onto the shore up to a ramp a la “Survivor Samoa”.  They then pull that crate over a ramp with lots of peaks and valleys, only to find a key to unlock a giant slide puzzle, with the first two tribes winning immunity and keeping their flint.  The sheer scale and physicality, seen much more rarely these days, keeps me from hating this challenge outright, but MAN do I long for original challenges.  I’ll be touching on this more later on, but this season has a really strong medieval theme, and I kind of love it.  If ONLY the challenges could be original ones to match that theme.  

Probst also takes the time to let us know that Bruce is ok, which is nice.  Everyone claps.  Say what you will about this season, but the cast is very NICE, which particularly after some of the bitterness at the end of last season is refreshing.  This is also where we get the reveal of the immunity idol for the season.  I would talk about it, but I need a quick bathroom break, so please sit through this commercial while I do so.  Won’t take long.  

WHO’S THAT IMMUNITY IDOL?

*commercial plays*

IT’S AEGISLASH!  

Aegislash!

It’s times like these where I really wish I had the skills to do these as video, rather than as written blogs.  That joke would have worked so much better visually.  

For the non-Pokemon initiated, our Immunity Idol this season is a sword stabbed through a shield, separating to become two separate idols as needed.  Frankly, this idol is nothing short of BADASS!  One of the best I’ve seen in a long time, and certainly helps this season stand out from the others aesthetically.  Again, if only the challenges themselves could keep up that aesthetic.  

While we can be fairly certain, given the relative lack of strategizing from them, that Soka will not be going, it’s a toss up as to who loses between Tika and Ratu.  Fittingly, they keep it back and forth, but things don’t look good for Ratu when Tika gets to the puzzle first.  Again, they seem to be the puzzle tribe.  Making matters worse is that Brandon, their physical anchor with Matthew injured, goes too hard in the challenge, and medical is called in.  He’s ok, but has to sit out the rest of challenge.  Not that I think Ratu was winning with their puzzle skills, but it certainly didn’t help matters.  Tika gets second, and Ratu loses their flint.  Scared as I am for Matthew, probably the most interesting in terms of tribe dynamics so far.  

More interesting than the challenge, however, are our sit-outs.  Oh, not who they are.  Matthew sits out for Ratu, given his injury obviously, and Claire, who appears to be the least physical of Soka.  No, what’s interesting is that Matthew’s charm seems to extend even to people outside his own tribe.  Claire says she likes him, and so gives him information, conferring with him about the results of the journey.  Matthew notes the lost vote Lauren said she had, but Claire notes that Matt on her tribe SHOWED the paper.  Given that Lauren did not, this makes Matthew suspicious.  

This suspicious quickly turns to targeting.  Matthew throws Lauren’s name out to basically everyone but her, though particularly Brandon and Kane, which they readily agree to.  Matthew’s logic makes sense, and while it was by no means the thing that cost them the challenge, Lauren did visibly struggle in the water.  Understandable for a Texas native, but still, not good when swimming challenges have a strong possibility of coming up.  

Maddy, however, has not forgotten Brandon’s mistrust of her.  Mistrust begets mistrust, and so Maddy goes to Lauren about voting out Brandon, getting Kane and Jaime on board to make a majority.  Lauren readily agrees since, you know, the alternative is her getting voted out.  They then go to Jaime, who evidently finds the pressure of being the swing vote too much, and says she’s going to use her shot in the dark.  Excuse me, WHAT?  Jaime, you are in arguably the BEST position on this tribe!  Everyone is coming to you with plans, no one is targeting you.  Why not vote?  Because you don’t want to make a decision?  THAT doesn’t bode well for your game.  

Kane not being super on-board with the Brandon plan seems to put the kibosh on it, but thankfully for misdirection, Brandon has not forgotten his and Maddy’s feud either.  He feels Maddy is more of a strategic threat than Lauren, and thus wants her out first.  Maddy, meanwhile, still tries to resuscitate the Brandon boot, going to Matthew to try and get a solid 4th.  Matthew protests strength, but she argues that he, her, and Kane will be enough.  Not sure why anyone would buy that, since Matthew’s arm is still in a sling and Kane does not seem particularly strong, but hey, you say what you have to.  Matthew notes that he’s closest to Brandon, but if the majority is going that way, will not want to rock to boat.  

As we head off to Tribal Council, can I just say how AMAZING it is that Matthew’s name is not even BROUGHT UP to boot this episode?  Not that I wanted it brought up of course.  After all, I like the dude a lot (pointless rock climb notwithstanding), and am rooting for him.  But with his arm in a sling, you’d think someone would at least MENTION it!  Chalk it up to his social game, I guess.  

Like our immunity idol, our Tribal Council set is nothing short of EPIC!  In keeping with the medieval theme, it’s a ruined castle, and they go all-out!  The desk with the parchment is a chessboard.  A gargoyle looms over the “Walk of Shame”.  THERE’S A FREAKING CATAPULT AT THE ENTRANCE!  Yes, it absolutely does not fit with Fiji, but if we’re stuck there anyway, I’ll take whatever unique designs I can get.  

Sadly the content of our Tribal Council does not match the aesthetic.  Gone are the days of hard-hitting questions.  Instead, Probst asks about how good everyone feels, and we get more metaphors that have honestly slipped through my head leaving zero impact.  Very ho-hum overall.  

Oh, wait, Probst did actually deign to give at least ONE hard-hitting moment.  The subject of the birdcage is brought up, and Brandon makes it clear that, in his words “The idol is for Brandon”.  Brandon, buddy, no.  This is not how you want to play it.  When you’ve got so public an idol, you need to sell it as being a group thing, not a “yourself” thing.  This is REALLY not the path to go down.  

Tribal Council discussion may be humdrum, but our voting is anything but.  Jaime announces her Shot in the Dark plan, and follows through.  So, we find out, did Matthew.  Now, in his case I’d say it’s a LITTLE more justified.  After all, while WE know he wasn’t at risk, he didn’t, and logically might believe he could receive votes.  That said, given his conflict over what to do with Brandon, it comes across to me more like he didn’t want to offend one side or the other.  Fair enough, but it still makes you look wishy-washy.  Jaime as well, though at least she is “Safe” out of the bargain, the first person to do so via Shot in the Dark.  She had literally NO votes against her anyway, but technically still the first.  

Adding onto this chaos is Lauren choosing to bank her vote.  Props to her, I would not have had the guts, knowing my name had been brought up.  Honestly, the most sensible move out of all of these is Brandon who, after seeing all this go down, plays his idol.  Understandable, both as he knows his close ally didn’t vote, and as the idol is a stigma he needs to get rid of.  Sure enough, Kane and Maddy both went for Brandon.  Brandon, left to his own devices, went for Maddy, who gets sent home with but a single vote.  I do feel for her, going down without a majority against her, but I’m not too sorry to lose her.  She wasn’t a bad character, and a decent strategist, but overall just kind of generic and I kept forgetting who she was in crowd shots.  Not a great character lost, is what I’m saying.  

Much like the strategy of Ratu, this episode is an enigma.  I love it, but for very different reasons than usual.  The strategy was messy at best overall, and once again, we lost time on more interesting interpersonal dynamics in favor of gimmicks.  But the episode was so different, so entertaining compared to a lot of recent episodes, that I still love it.  Partly it’s the aesthetic of the season helping it stand out, but it’s also how we’re not seeing ideal strategy.  Granted, I’d like at least Matthew to play a little better, but he’s hardly the worst of the bunch, and it does lead to insane situations you don’t see as often.  Ultimately, though, I think it’s the positive cast that really puts this episode over the top.  Their charm, their sheer joy at being there, is infectious, and just makes the episode fun to watch.  Hopefully they can keep it up!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  amil

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Cast Assessment

Dear readers, I would like to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  That said, I cannot do so in this case, due to the fact that the world is ending.  

Yes, hell hath frozen over, pigs are flying, the whole works.  We have hit the apocalypse, my friends.  How do I know this?  We had a cast release on a Tuesday.  You know, the day “Survivor” does not air on.  We have broken one of the immutable laws of the universe.  Matter can neither be created nor destroyed.  Force equals mass times acceleration.  “Survivor” casts drop on the same day of the week that episodes premier on.  And since I haven’t heard about the show switching to “Tuesdays”, this can only mean the world is coming to an end.  

Still, I suppose we might as well enjoy ourselves while we await our inevitable demise.  Let’s take a look at my thoughts on this new cast, starting with…

Claire Rafson (25, Tech Investor, Brooklyn, NY, Soka Tribe): Starting strong out of the gate, Claire is one of my two picks to win the whole thing.  Yes, seriously.  The woman is just too solid a competitor.  She compares herself to two solid winners in Michele Fitzgerald and Natalie Anderson (“Survivor Kaoh Rong” and “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, respectively), and makes a good note of what qualities she needs to utilize from both.  Specifically Michele’s social game and Natalie’s willingness to cut ties when necessary.  A blend a likability and cutthroatness can be lethal, game-wise, and all in a very unassuming package.  Admittedly Claire doesn’t seem like she’ll be the BEST in the outdoors or in challenges, but she doesn’t seem like she’ll be a sink in either area either, and given that her tribe seems like it’s the most well-rounded in challenges overall, I suspect she’s in it for the long haul.  If you REALLY want me to find weaknesses in her game, I would probably say her age and her pet peeves.  Claire is on the younger side for a winner, but as Maryanne taught us in “Survivor 42”, it’s by no means a deal-breaker, and I think this self-described “queer black Jewish woman” has those skills, helped by the fact that she’s clearly a longtime fan (something that, as I’ll discuss later, does not seem to be as universal amongst this cast as it has been in recent seasons).  Slightly more concerning is her pet peeve, which is people who are not self-aware, something that can describe many a previous contestant, and will doubtless apply to some this season.  Given her savvy, plus her tribe’s possible lack of early votes, I think Claire can ride this out for the long haul, and emerge as our eventually winner.  I know, I usually pick two winners, and still intend to do so this season.  But put a gun to my head, and force me to pick just one, I’m going with Claire.  Plus, the woman listens to young-adult novels on tape to go to sleep (specifically “The Hunger Games” in her case), and can I just say, I feel seen?

Matt Blankinship (27, Software Engineer, San Francisco, CA, Soka Tribe): This guy stole my first name, he stole my hairdo.  Man’s just a thief overall!  I kid, I kid.  Either way, though, I suspect this guy will be rewarded like a thief, and receive a harsh sentence.  That sentence, in this case, being an early exit.  Matt had better hope that his tribe truly IS the dominant one of the season, because I see him going at their first Tribal Council.  Given the makeup of the tribes, I doubt he’s the overall first boot, but when the opportunity arises, he’s toast.  There’s several of the “nerd” archetype this season, and while not the most egregious example of this, Matt is the most clearly visible.  Everyone nowadays knows this archetype is a threat, and coupled with a usual lack of skills in non-puzzle-based challenges (which, admittedly, are becoming as rare as hen’s teeth these days), they are an easy early target.  It takes a great deal of skill to overcome this obstacle, and while Matt is far from the worst person I’ve ever seen in terms of game sense, he’s no genius in that territory either.  The thing that clinches Matt’s poor chances for me is him talking about his failures in life.  It is refreshing to someone so open about their past mistakes, admittedly.  He chickened out for applying for the show the first time.  He failed to get a job.  He failed college.  It’s good, uplifting stuff that he kept on fighting in spite of this, but does not bode well for a winning game.  Matt is a pre-merge boot, but hey, maybe he can learn from this failure, and find success on a returnee season?  Stranger things have happened.  

Carolyn Wiger (35, Drug Counselor, Hugo, MN, Tika Tribe): Remember how I said people in psychology and psychology-related fields, unless they are Denise Stapely of “Survivor Philippines”, don’t do well on the show?  Yeah, don’t be looking for Carolyn to buck that trend.  Seems we’re getting all my extreme takes out of the way early, since Carolyn is my pick for first boot of the season.  While by no means “old”, she definitely fits the mold the show has for an “older woman”, one of the more vulnerable archetypes to be perceived as at the beginning of the season.  Carolyn also lists a lot of worldly things that she likes, makeup and potato chips and whatnot, that make me question how well she will do in the outdoors, only making her more vulnerable.  On top of that, when asked to compare herself to a previous player, Carolyn says she’s most like Noura of “Survivor Island of the Idols”.  About the best thing that this comparison says about Carolyn is that she has good self-knowledge.  Yeah, Noura ain’t exactly the comparison you want to make if you’re looking for success in this game.  Yes, Noura made it deep, but that was in part due to a large win streak from her tribe, giving other people time to rub the tribe the wrong way.  While I maintain that there will be no “disaster tribe” for this season, if there IS one on some off-chance, it will likely be Tika, putting Carolyn in an early vulnerable spot.  IF she somehow makes the merge, expect her to go deep as a goat, but unfortunately for her, I expect her to have a very short shelf-life this season.  Good on her for doing the real-life work she does, though.  Very necessary, but very difficult.  

Yamil “Yam Yam” Arocho (36, Salon Owner, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tika Tribe): One of two contestants currently living in a US territory at the time of casting this season, Yam Yam bookends the unintended theme this blog of “Get the extreme takes out early”.  Yes, Yam Yam is my second winner pick for this season.  You may remember Yam Yam from the preview we got at the end of “Survivor 43”.  He was the guy excited to poop in the ocean.  This may have you thinking “Well, the guy will be a fun character for sure, but winner equity?  Not seeing it.”  But as Maryanne proved on “Survivor 42”, being a good character and being a good strategist are not necessarily mutually exclusive.  In fact, Yam Yam’s personality could work to his advantage, as his strategizing won’t make him as visible a threat, thanks to his “wacky” exterior.  The man has admitted to surviving 90 days without electricity following a hurricane, so I’m going to say he’s got survival bona fides.  Yes, his challenge prowess might not be the best, but unless his tribe goes the route of Vesi last season, and cuts off their worst at challenges when they just can’t take it any more, Yam Yam is here for the long haul.  People will want to keep him around for his humor, and I’m confident he could use his charm to his advantage.  Man compares himself to Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”) for a reason, and he’s the only person I’ve yet seen to have NO pet peeves listed in his bio whatsoever (though that could just be a quirk of “Entertainment Weekly”, where I usually go to read them).  Honestly, the only concern I have with Yam Yam is that he DOES remind me so much of Maryanne.  She may have proved big characters can still be good at strategy, but her doing so means people will be on the watch for such a game.  Given that “Survivor 42” was the last season this cast saw, it will be VERY fresh in their minds, and that could put Yam Yam in trouble.  Otherwise, expect him to be around in the end.  Besides, he’s endorsed by Sandra Diaz-Twine (“Survivor Pearl Islands”), and who am I to disagree with The Queen?

Lauren Harpe (31, Elementary School Teacher, Mont Belvieu, TX, Ratu Tribe): After several novella’s worth of character bits to talk about, we finally have someone who we can go over without some big rant involved.  Lauren should do fairly well in this game, but aside from her hair, which is awesome, I don’t expect her to make any big waves in this game.  I think she should have some good skills interpersonally.  After all, managing a bunch of elementary school kids is one of the undersold toughest jobs in this day and age.  And mad respect to her for raising kids as a single mom, another undersold tough job.  Her pet peeve is a bit concerning, in people who don’t own up to their mistakes, but I’ve seen people with way worse peeves do well, so I won’t hold that much against her.  I don’t see Lauren being the major mover and shaker in an alliance, but she seems skilled enough to work her way into the core of a major alliance, and probably hang on until the early-to-mid merge or so, where she’ll be taken out as a safe boot.  Possibly she’s even one of the “split tribal” boots at the final 10, assuming they bring that back again.  Not knocking my socks off, but a solid player I predict will do decently well.  

Danny Massa (32, NYC Firefighter, Bronx, NY, Soka Tribe): While perhaps not quite to the same degree, Danny is very much the Jonathan Young (“Survivor 42”) of this cast.  Not so much in the sense that he will win challenges single-handedly, but in the sense that physically, he’s head and shoulders above the rest of the cast.  That said, I don’t see much strategic chops from him beyond surface-level stuff, and his pet peeves are the most concerning so far.  Bullies and whining are both decently common on this show, and I could see them getting under Danny’s skin.  On the flip side, however, this makes Danny a very good alliance member.  Skilled in team challenges, loyal, but not bright enough to strategize against you in any threatening way.  As with most challenge beasts, Danny will be a target as soon as the merge hits, and unless he gets an alliance as tight as Jonathan’s, will probably be out in the early-to-mid merge area.  

Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt (43, Engineering Manager, Pittsburgh, PA, Soka Tribe): For her own sake, Heidi had better hope her tribe IS a major force in the challenges, because if things shake out relatively even in terms of who goes to Tribal Council, she is an easy early target.  I love her enthusiasm, and we stan a board-game lover on this blog, but the fact simply is that Heidi is the oldest person on her tribe, and that person is almost always vulnerable early on.  Add onto that someone who self-describes as “loud”, a personality trait that gets very irritating very quickly when you can’t get away from it, and an enthusiasm for the game that, while admirable, frequently leads to playing too hard, too fast, and you’ve got yourself a recipe for a pre-merge boot.  Her pet peeve, “rude people”, doesn’t help matters any further.  Again, unless her tribe just completely bodies the immunity challenges, I don’t see Heidi having much of a shot moving forward.  About the only other thing worth mentioning is that she is one of a few people this season to mention Angelina Keeley (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) in their “who are you most like?” question, something that doesn’t really impact my thoughts on how they’ll do, but DOES point to an interesting trend that I’ll discuss more when we come to the final thoughts on the cast/season preview overall.  

Carson Garrett (20, NASA Engineering Student, Atlanta, GA, Tika Tribe): It’s revenge of the nerds!  Carson is the second (of three) overt “nerd” archetypes this season, and like with Matt before him, I think it helps spell his doom.  Man’s certainly got the studying down, though.  3-D printing puzzles to practice them beforehand.  Studying up on the statistics of the game.  Correctly identifying himself with Christian Hubicki (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  The man is doing his best to set himself up for success, and I do like the guy.  Man loves board games in general, and Settlers of Catan in particular.  Can’t fault him for that.  But the man has too many little things working against him.  I mentioned the “nerd” archetype being a threat, but the fact is that he’s just too young for me to consider him doing well.  I know I said Maryanne proved that age is less of a factor than we might have previously thought, but there is a limit to how low one can go, and I’m just not sure this guy has enough life experience to connect with people, and consequently do well in this game.  Finally, there’s his tribe.  I doubt Carson will be the FIRST target from his tribe, he needs to not go to Tribal Council too-often pre-merge, yet finds himself on probably the worst tribe for challenges.  Rough luck, my dude.  Another pre-merge boot in my opinion.  As an aside, the man DOES have probably the longest list of pet peeves, but most of them, apart from mosquitoes, are things he’s unlikely to encounter on the island, though I suppose production could put him on a tribe with negative vibes/moon-landing-deniers just to mess with him.  

Maddy Pomilla (28, Charity Projects Manager, Brooklyn, NY, Ratu Tribe): Not content to have Elie Scott (“Survivor 43”) on just once, production let her change her name, occupation, and location, then brought her back immediately.  Apart from physical resemblance, Maddy and Elie exude the same energy.  Decently game-savvy, but still overestimating themselves, and energetic to the point of annoyance.  Maddy will be a strategist, but an overly-visible one, and therefore an easy target.  Given the large merge sizes of recent seasons, expect Maddy to be our merge boot, or perhaps our “Mergeatory” boot, if that’s really what we’re calling it now.  Too visible not to take out at an opportunity when an easy consensus boot is needed.  She will burn brightly, but burn (relatively) fast.  

Bruce Perreault (46, Insurance Agent, Warwick, RI, Tika Tribe): Our oldest contestant (though admittedly only by a few years) on this season, I would not blame you for not expecting Bruce to be that old at first glance.  True, the man does not look like a spring chicken, but you could easily shave 10 years off his age, and I’d believe it.  This implies he’s relatively fit, ergo not a challenge sink, ergo less likely to be targeted for that reason.  That said, there ARE reasons to be concerned about his game, at least in my opinion.  While the man is in insurance, thereby effectively a salesman and presumably social, the man gives the shortest answers by far in his bio.  A welcome break in reading, to be sure, but does not imply, to me at least, good sociability.  Think of him like Rocksroy (“Survivor 42”): Not unlikeable, but very set in his ways and not going to sugarcoat stuff.  He’s one of two players who very much give off “dad vibes” this season.  Useful on a tribe that’s likely to be fairly chaotic early, but could also isolate him.  I think Bruce needs to hope for a very even split of Tribal Council attendance in the pre-merge, since there are people I’ve discussed on his tribe who would likely be targets before him.  If they ARE closer to the disaster tribe, his perceived lack of sociability will likely catch up to him, and Bruce will be out likely in the pre-merge, though probably the late pre-merge, if I had to guess.  

Sarah Wade (27, Management Consultant, Chicago, IL, Tika Tribe): If someone can ride out the chaos that is this tribe, my money’s on Sarah.  Apart from her career implying she knows how to handle disparate personalities, the woman is a long-time fan, and so knows the game quite well, while appearing unassuming, another deadly combination in this game.  Not enough stands out about her for me to really go so far as to say she’ll win, but she was definitely one I considered for the title, and will probably make it far regardless.  Mid-to-late merge I’d say.  Her pet peeves are relatively unassuming (loud chewing, rule followers, close minded/inflexible people), though she could run into some in the game, another slight mark against her.  Also, she references multiple times how the passing of a close friend inspires her in life.  A tragedy for her, and my heart goes out to her for her loss, but expect her to be the one we get MULTIPLE flashbacks to.  No way the show isn’t milking that for all it’s worth.  

Matthew Grinstead-Mayle (43, Barbershop Owner, Columbus, OH, Ratu Tribe):  Hoo boy.  Let’s tally the list, shall we?  This guy shares my first name.  He lives in the same metropolitan area as me.  We bear some superficial similarities, being large, hirsute, barrel-chested guys with bushy beards.  This guy is my favorite of the season in part because I’m basically OBLIGATED to root for him at this point.  So, do I think he’ll win?  Eh… I think he’ll make the merge, at least.  The dude gives off SERIOUS dad vibes, even more so than Bruce whom we just discussed.  Not a bad thing, but it makes me question how good he’ll be at the game once things really get cutthroat.  On top of that, dude has a LOT of pet peeves.  Admittedly, most of these are food-related, and unlikely to come up, but the two that AREN’T, specifically people who talk in circles and people who dominate the conversation (or presumably both), are something he’ll have to watch out for.  While I appreciate him comparing himself to Elaine Stott (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), an underappreciated player, his further comparisons to Shan Smith (“Survivor 41”) and especially Ben Driebergen (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) are concerning.  Admittedly his take on the former is that she was the social center, but should he bring in her cockiness, he might be in trouble.  As for Ben?  Well, a nice enough guy, but good strategist he ain’t.  I don’t see Matthew going SUPER early, but expect him out no later than the mid-merge, when the game just gets too cutthroat for him to keep up.  Of course, this is assuming he’s not one of the medevacs we saw in the season preview, since it seems like it was likely him falling off the rock in the preview.  He has the closest build, and does have the right buff color, assuming no swap.  Then again, these previews also made us think Tori Meehan was getting an idol on “Survivor 42”, so I’m not going to go so far as to say he IS for certain a medevac.  

Helen Li (29, Product Manager, San Francisco, CA, Tika Tribe): Rounding out this tribe is the OTHER person I have confidence can ride this thing out, regardless of if the tribe ends up being a disaster.  Helen’s another bona fide fan, making good references from recent seasons (comparing herself to Erika Casupanan of “Survivor 41”), all the way back to season 2 with Tina Wesson.  Preparing for the future while learning from the past.  I like this woman.  Her unassuming pet peeves help as well, as a lack of toilet paper and cars on the island mean two out of her three are non-factors.  Disrespectful people might be an issue, and that plus a potential lack of challenge prowess keep Helen from the winner’s spot for me.  Still, all else being equal, she should have the good game sense to weather early storms, and make the mid-to-late merge period.  I’d even have her as a dark horse to win, if it comes to that.  

Josh Wilder (34, Surgical Podiatrist, Atlanta, GA, Soka Tribe): Josh seems nice.  Yeah.  That’s really all that needs to be said.  Dude is decently athletic, seems likable enough.  Should do well.  I don’t think he really has the killer instinct needed to be truly great, but unless he makes some major social gaffe none of us see coming, he should be safe.  No reason to vote him out early, and not enough of a strategic threat to be an immediate target come the merge.  Man is one of the better challenge competitors on paper this season, so expect his threat to rise in the mid-to-late merge, and see him go there.  Be aware, as well, that he’s another contestant who regrettably had tragic medical hardships at a (relatively, in some cases) young age.  Something called “Prune Belly Syndrome” at birth, necessitating a kidney transplant, and stomach cancer at age 25, necessitating the removal (and presumably transplant) of his stomach.  Dude’s been through a lot, and expect to hear it in multiple flashbacks.  In truth, I expect Josh’s biggest risk early game to be the fact that, due to the aforementioned transplants, he’s on immunosuppressants, and so I could see him getting some tropical disease that makes him one of the medevacs of the season, though I would hope that production, if they thought he was at that much greater a risk than others, would not have let him play the season in the first place.  

Jaime Lynn Ruiz (35, Yogi, Mesa, AZ, Ratu Tribe): Jaime wins the award for “Most Unusual Occupation” this season!  Good thing, too, as she’s not winning many other awards.  Similar to Carolyn, whom we discussed earlier, Jamie is not “old” by an objective measure, but fits the “older woman” archetype as far as this show is concerned, and that’s a problem.  She claims to be a day one fan, and perhaps she is, but comparisons only to recent seasons make me question that.  She’s another Angelina stan, and again, we’ll get into the significance of that later on.  She also has a lot of enthusiasm, as evidenced by a large number of all-caps words in her bio.  As a viewer, I appreciate it, but on the island, could be grating.  I will say she avoid any even mildly concerning pet peeves, but she’s likely the worst challenge performer on her tribe, so unless she has above and beyond social skills, I don’t see her lasting very long, unfortunately.  Chalk her up as another pre-merge boot.  

Kane Fritzler (25, Law Student, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, Ratu Tribe): Rounding out our nerd trio is Kane, and he is an exception to my thoughts on these types this season.  That is to say, Kane will be voted out for reasons OTHER than his nerddom.  Don’t misunderstand, Kane has a few read flags.  Likely not the best in non-puzzle challenges.  Describes himself as “loud” which I’ve already expressed as a concern for others.  Admittedly not any concerning pet peeves, but this is little comfort.  No, sadly for Kane, he is doomed before he starts by his nationality.  What’s wrong with being Canadian, you might ask?  Erika and Maryanne, that’s what.  The last two times there has been an opportunity to do so, a Canadian has won this show.  This, in the minds of this case, who JUST saw “Survivor 42” end before coming out, makes Canadians a threat.  Possibly Kane can try and pass himself off as an American, but that’s a big lie to keep up, and if there’s somehow another spelling challenge, he’ll give himself away.  Unfortunately, by virtue of his place of birth, Kane is a goner.  Another pre-merge boot.  And to those who say “So two Canadians won back to back, no big deal!”, I would remind you that it took only ONE successful women’s alliance (after at least three failed attempts at one, if you’re being really picky about what constitutes an “attempt” at a “women’s alliance”) for contestants to have a fear of women’s alliances that arguably persists TO THIS DAY.  I give it at least 3-5 years before the paranoia dies down to the point where a Canadian can win again.  

Frannie Marin (23, Research Coordinator, Cambringe, MA, Soka Tribe): If I were to describe Frannie in one word, it would be “quirky”.  Not too surprising, considering she compares herself to this blog’s beloved Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  She also says that Sophie Clarke (“Survivor South Pacific”) and the Scarlet Witch are her heroes, which we can get behind.  Likability does not always translate into success, though, and these traits that we the audience love could end up being a detriment to Frannie’s game, if they are in excess.  Thankfully, Frannie also seems to be able to tone it down when needed, as evidenced by her not-too-wordy bio.  She’s also another with no listed pet peeves, though again, that could just be a hiccup of how I’m reading these bios.  Couple this with her likely being on the strongest overall tribe for challenges, and I see Frannie making it to the early-to-mid merge.  She’s not subtle enough to win, but should make it decently far, and will certainly be fun along the way.  

Brandon Cottom (30, Security Specialist, Newtown, PA, Ratu Tribe): We end our cast assessment with the most “celebrity” of these contestants.  His occupation may be “Security Specialist”, but Brandon is more well known as a linebacker for the Seattle Seahawks.  Brandon pretty well fits the archetype we’ve come to expect for sports players on “Survivor”.  Decent, if not great, at challenges.  Generally charming, but not as much game sense.  A good team player who likely can’t win, but unless their fame is well-known, should make the mid-merge area or so.  Brandon is pretty bog-standard in this category, so I don’t see that much more needs to be said about him than that.  They wanted another by-the-book sports player on this show, and that’s what they got.  

And thus, we round out the cast assessment, and I am hyped.  While I struggled to find things to say about a LOT of the cast of “Survivor 43”, here I struggled to find people I DIDN’T have a lot of things to say about, for good and for ill.  That bodes well for at least an entertaining season.  But let’s talk about some miscellaneous topics, shall we?

No more delaying, time to address the Angelina in the room.  While it wasn’t as common as I thought on first read, it DID seem like people were mentioning Angelina more than they had in previous seasons.  What’s more, most of them were looking at her in a new light, saying she got a raw deal in the edit.  Is this some sort of Angelina Renaissance?  No, I think it’s an indication that, if these people are fans, they’re very RECENT fans.  Recall that “Survivor David vs. Goliath” was recently on Netflix, getting wider exposure than a lot of the other seasons of the show have had in some time.  It probably got a lot of new people interested in the show, thus explaining why Angelina seems to pop up, at least to me, more than she normally would.  This makes me doubt who deep their fandom is, but at the same time, this might be a good compromise.  I’m on the side of liking superfans on the show, but I can see the other side, who want people clueless about the game to prevent gameplay that feels overused.  As such, getting recent fans who know the game to a degree, but not encyclopedically, might be a good middle ground we can all enjoy.  

On a more negative note, I HATE these tribe names.  Apart from running afoul of my dislike of short tribe names, this season, perhaps more than any other, REALLY shows why staying in Fiji long-term is an issue.  Eventually, you run into similar sounding names, making it harder to distinguish tribes between seasons.  Here, I’ll do the rundown of similar names for the tribes right now: Ratu=Ravu, Soka=Soko, Tika=Tiva.  And that was just of the top of my head!  I’m sure I’d find more similarities if I actually did RESEARCH on this.  Not to mention, I’m surprised that the show was even ALLOWED to use “Ratu” for a tribe name.  I may not know much about Fijian culture, but one thing I DO know is the definition of “Ratu”, that being “chief”.  The OTHER thing I know is that Fijians are VERY picky about how the term gets used.  Jokes or irreverence for the term are a big no-no, and so I’m amazed, assuming they even had permission, that the show got to use it.  Even if so, though, it does not excuse the similar names.  Show, either come up with better names, or better yet, SHOOT IN LOCATIONS OTHER THAN FIJI!

Finally, while I did not consider medevacs in my placement predictions, and don’t think it’s fair to ask me to predict effectively an act of God with little outside evidence, here are who I think are the most likely medevac possibilities: Matthew due to the preview showing probably him falling off the rock, Lauren since we can assume Ratu loses someone besides Matthew from the preview and I think we would have remembered her hair, Carolyn due to her age/general lack of physical survival skills, and I’ll throw in Josh as a wild-card due to the immunosuppressants concern I voiced earlier.  

So there you have it, my thoughts on the cast!  Let me know what you all think, and assuming we’re still alive and the show is still airing in this apocalyptic hellscape, I look forward to blogging the premiere of “Survivor 44” for you all!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.