“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Heroes vs. Villains

Way, way back when I started this series, one of my initial ideas for a “What-If” to do was to have Candice not do a dumb and flip on the Heroes post-merge. I was really excited about the idea, and all the implications it could have. Then I did my research, realized Russell had an idol at that time, and so the point was most likely moot. Heroes don’t have a way to come back, and the post-merge regrettably remains “The Russell Hantz Show”. Still, I wanted to find some way to make it work. After all “Survivor Heroes vs Villains” is one of, if not the, most beloved season of all time by most of the fanbase. I disagree with quite how good it is, mainly because I find the post-merge so frustrating. If I can fix that, then I can get on the hype train with all other fans. So, can one small change to the timeline do that? Let’s find out.

First, though, a quick reminder that I can’t really discuss changes to the timeline without discussing, at least in abstract, how things played out in OUR timeline. In other words, there will be SPOILERS ahead, both for this season, and seasons that came afterward. Read ahead at your own risk. For those still here, let’s take a look at the change, starting with the change itself.

THE IMPACT

Unfortunately, between Russell’s idol and Candice’s dumb move to flip, it takes us quite a while post-merge to get to a point where we can make an actual change. Indeed, if you just looked at what we were shown in the show, this wouldn’t even seem like a plausible change. However, if one examines post-show interviews, it’s revealed that Sandra did try and get out Russell at the final six, using her idol. She went to Rupert and tried to convince him to vote with her, so she could play her idol on him, getting Russell sent home 2-1 (Sandra didn’t want to include Colby on the plan, so he presumably still votes for Sandra). Regrettably, her pitch was basically “Trust me and we can take this game just the two of us.” Not a particularly strong pitch, and Rupert not exactly being great in the strategy department meant he didn’t trust it, and the deal fell through. So, in our timeline, Sandra realizes that Rupert was less dismissing her idea and more just not getting it, and spells out for him what she plans. She tells him about the idol, if not shows it to him, and despite Rupert probably wanting to tell Colby about the plan, explains why it’s too big a risk. Rupert, wanting Russell out, agrees to trust Sandra, and thus, as detailed above, gets Russell eliminated 2-1. This sets things up for a very interesting finale, which we’ll discuss below.

THE FALLOUT

Colby is, of course, a little upset about being left out of the vote, but some reassurances from Rupert, coupled with relief over Russell being gone, smoothes things over between the two. Thus, with themselves and Sandra, they now form the new power trio of the finale, putting Parvati and Jerri on the backfoot. Parvati, however, is lucky, in and of that the next immunity challenge favors her. She won even in our timeline, and I doubt trading out Russell for Rupert changes that fact. Thus, Jerri probably goes home at final five, to her frustration. Final Four is a bit trickier to predict. After all, of the four remaining, only two (Parvati and Sandra) were there in our timeline, and neither was particularly close to winning. I think it’s safe to say that Sandra still doesn’t win the challenge, but that’s not saying much. There are arguments to be made for any of the other three winning, but if we want to stick with the most plausible outcome, I think Parvati is the most likely winner. Rupert and Colby are no slouches, but both were clearly past their prime this season, while we know Parvati still did decently well, even if she was behind both Russell and Jerri in our timeline. So, with Parvati immune, the three turn on each other, with Rupert as the swing vote, since he has ties with both Sandra and Colby. In the end, I’d say Rupert’s loyalty to his original tribe (even if not his original alliance) outweighs his previous bond with Sandra, and between that and Parvati wanting revenge, Sandra goes. Thus, rather than being a sweep for the Villains Tribe, we now have Rupert, Colby, and Parvati as our final three. This, of course, shakes up the votes considerably, so much so that I feel inclined to go through each juror individually, and talk about how their vote would go before moving on to the “Legacy” portion of this blog.

Coach: It’s tempting to say that Coach’s vote doesn’t change, since Parvati is present in the finals in both timelines we’re talking about. Recall, though, that Coach voted for her as “The Least Bad Option” rather than particularly liking or respecting her game. In his mind, she was still tied to Russell, but did more than Sandra. As such, if Coach has any option to vote for someone who opposed Russell, he would do so. Therefore, I think Coach is a Rupert vote in this timeline. Having never interacted with either of them outside of challenges, Coach has basically only their challenge performance to go off of. Also recall that Coach respects people who win out in honorable combat, and wouldn’t you know it, but both Colby and Rupert battled against Coach in challenges this season (Colby in the first reward challenge, Rupert on the sumo immunity challenge). Rupert beat him. Colby did not. Ergo, in Coach’s mind, voting for Rupert is the right thing to do. Plus, Rupert cast a vote against Russell, while in this timeline, Colby did not.

Courtney: Contrasting to Coach, Courtney doesn’t respect anyone. We probably get a fiery speech from her about how seriously all three take themselves. As to her vote, I can’t see it going to anyone but Parvati. While I doubt Courtney has any love for any of the finalists in this timeline, Rupert and Colby buy too much into their own narrative, and Courtney only spent time with Parvati, so Parvati probably gets her vote.

J.T.: Because we need some variety, it turns out J.T. votes for the only option not voted for at this point in time: Colby. J.T. had no respect for Parvati or her game, as demonstrated throughout the season. As for choosing between Rupert and Colby, while Rupert and J.T. were aligned, we saw that J.T. did not respect Rupert’s gameplay, talking about leading him along. Colby might have been outside the dominant alliance, but made it to the finals nonetheless, and J.T. was able to work with him. Thus, Colby gets J.T.’s vote.

Amanda: Similar to J.T., Amanda is another person who, on the surface, should vote for Rupert. Parvati betrayed her this season, and even in our timeline, Parvati didn’t get Amanda’s vote, so that’s out. Conversely, Rupert was her ally the entire time, and succeeded in voting out Russell. However, like J.T., Amanda also didn’t respect Rupert in terms of strategy, and while she didn’t work with Colby, I’d guess she’d be impressed with him making it to the end in spite of this. Unless she REALLY holds a grudge from the “Treasure Island” reward, Amanda’s another Colby vote.

Candice: In keeping with the Heroes on the jury being a relatively united front, I’d say Candice votes for Colby. While I don’t think she particularly likes or respects any of the finalists, Parvati is tied too closely to Russell, and again, Rupert just has no game any fan of strategy can respect. Hence, Colby is the least-bad option for Candice.

Danielle: For once, a pretty straightforward result. Danielle and Parvati were aligned in the game. Danielle voted for Parvati even in our timeline. No reason to suspect Danielle would not vote for Parvati is this one as well.

Russell: Even though we’ve never seen Russell on the jury, we can have a very solid idea of how he would vote. Even in our timeline, he respected Parvati post-game, and is probably nursing a grudge against Rupert and Colby for getting him voted out (in his mind), and thus is a solid vote in the Parvati corner.

Jerri: Little respect for Colby’s game this season. DEFINITELY no respect for Rupert. Allied with Parvati. Voted for Parvati in our timeline. Another solid Parvati vote.

Sandra: Sandra is hands-down a Rupert vote. The pair had a bond. He was the only one initially willing to listen to her about Russell. And he helped vote Russell out of the game, which was Sandra’s only goal for most of the post-merge. No way she doesn’t reward that loyalty.

THE LEGACY

Doing the math, this leads to a Parvati victory on the season, winning 4-3-2 over Colby and Rupert. Oddly, this does mean that “Heroes vs. Villains” gets to keep the distinction of giving us our first two-time winner, while adding on the distinction of being the second season ever with a final three where all three finalists get votes. That said, there’s also probably a bigger backlash than this season imagined before. Yes, Parvati might have played a fantastic game. That doesn’t mean the fanbase likes it. To not only have an ally of Russell win (again), but to have her beat out Rupert and Colby, arguably the two most popular players in “Survivor” history? Yeah, don’t be surprised if more than a couple of people separate themselves from the community for a bit. Parvati probably gets some hate for beating out the favorites, but I’d imagine the most hate is reserved for Coach and Sandra. After all, if they had voted with the Heroes for Colby, he wins this season, which most of the fanbase in this timeline sees as the more desirable outcome. Yeah, fair to say they probably take a break from the fandom for a while.

What does this mean for future seasons? Unfortunately, Boston Rob and Russell still argue at the finale, thus giving us the impetus for “Survivor Redemption Island”, so we regrettably still put up with that trash fire of a season. “Survivor South Pacific” changes a little, though, as Coach probably doesn’t want to come back quite so soon on the heels of “Heroes vs. Villains”. Actually, given that Rupert is considered “The Man Who Took Down Russell Hantz” in this timeline (even though Sandra did the legwork), he probably takes Coach’s spot on that season, meaning it’s unlikely that Upolu dominates the post-merge quite like they do in our timeline. Moving forward a bit, the cast of “Survivor Game Changers” probably doesn’t change that much, since Sandra is now considered a “game changer” for being the woman who cost a hero the game, though it is possible we get Coach back in as well, probably in Troyzan’s spot. This is even possibly where Sandra gets a second win. After all, in our timeline she still dominated until the numbers just weren’t in her favor, and that was WITH the handicap of being the only two-time winner. Without that handicap? She could become the second two-time winner. Even so, Parvati is still considered the “queen” of “Survivor”, and so it’s probably her who gets a giant head on “Island of the Idols”. Finally, the cast of “Winners at War” doesn’t change, though who’s an early threat probably does (with Parvati being an even bigger target, and Sandra possibly a smaller one).

I asked at the beginning if making this change could get me on the hype train for “Heroes vs. Villains”. Could this change actually make it, for me, the greatest season of all time? Sorry, but no. Don’t get me wrong, the season does move up in my rankings somewhat in this timeline. We still have the excitement of most of the game, our first two-time winner, and Russell does get, in my opinion, a more satisfactory comeuppance than in our timeline. While the hubris is nice, I was tired of what I saw as no one successfully standing up to a bully, whereas here they do. That said, the season is still too Russell Hantz-heavy for me to be fully on board with it being the best ever. The fact that a Villain still wins, while appropriate given the show, is also disappointing. So, overall an improvement, but not by much. Perhaps our next season will shed some different light?

As to what that next season will be, you all have some input! In the comments below, feel free to suggest changes to the timeline you think would be fun to read about and analyze. I will give credit for any ideas that I use. Be aware, though, that there are some guidelines for what changes will and won’t be considered. They are as follows:

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season. This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way. Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical. As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not for this blog. I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style. Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment. It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about. Yes, Fang winning the first challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season. Would it ever happen? No. So there’s no point in writing about it.

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way. Simply changing up the boot order is not enough. Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both. As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9. I thought this could lead to a Heroes Victory. Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched. Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.

These rules are hand and fast, but the next two are flexible, and subject to change should circumstances dictate that it makes sense to do so. They are as follows:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”. From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good. The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of. I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip. Nothing knocking them, of course. I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them. So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above. I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”. He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add. I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out. Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

And there you have it. Looking forward to time-traveling with you all next time!

-Matt

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Winners at War” Cast Assessment

Well, here we are! The official cast photos have been released, biographies are now up on the official website, we’ve got a new preview video… And yet we STILL don’t know the tribe names? What the heck, CBS? We can SEE who’s on what tribe in your videos. Make it easy on us and just break down the division. It would sure make my life easier.

Welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to. Somewhat less knee-jerk this time around since we’ve had a pretty good idea of who’s going to be on this cast for some time now, but here we are nonetheless. Time for me to talk about which winners I think have the skills to pay the bills, and the ones I think will wish they’d sat this season out. Since this is an all-returnee season, though, there’s a couple of bits of business to get out of the way. First off, the biographical information is going to be somewhat limited this time, basically just being the contestants name, season they won (it would take too long to list every season, and pointless to write “winner” over and over again), and which tribe they’re on. This is partly because I’m assuming some familiarity with these people from the readers of this blog, but also because, on a returnee season, these factors don’t matter as much in my opinion. With an all-newbie season, the writings are pretty much all we’ve got to go on. Here, however, we’ve SEEN these people play before, so things like their occupation and pet peeves don’t matter as much. Now, I have read the cast bios, and will occasionally bring them up, but most of my assessment will be based on how they played before/the dynamics endemic to a returnee season in this day and age. Since Edge of Extinction is regrettably back, I should explain that I’ll be keeping my ratings for how people do the same nonetheless. If I think someone can win their way back into the game, I will reflect this, but unless you win your way back in, or someone quits before you, when you were voted out is when you were voted out. Sitting on an island making friends we don’t get to see doesn’t count. As per usual with a returnee season, I’ll be mentioning when I think a player doesn’t fit, or I think someone else would have been better, and listing my preferred replacement beneath. And finally, on a lighter note, I’ll be calling these tribes “Red” and “Blue”, since again, CBS hasn’t given us their names for some stupid reason. Now, on to the assessment, in chronological order by first win!

Ethan Zohn (“Survivor Africa”, Blue Tribe): With Ethan, we have what I believe to be an “Idol Speculation” first: My favorite player of the season is the first one we talk about. “Survivor Africa” has always been one of my personal favorite seasons (it would probably make my top 5 if I didn’t have the nostalgia goggles on for “Survivor Guatemala”), and while I’m not going to sit here and say that Ethan is the greatest character to come out of the season, he’s still a lot of fun. A distinctive look, a good story, and just generally a nice guy. I could go on and on about just how likable Ethan is, but frankly, I think T-Bird said it best: “What can you say that’s bad about Ethan? Nuthin’!” This still holds true today. Plus, it’s intriguing to me to see how someone from such a different era of “Survivor” plays in the modern day, as Ethan now ties with another player on this season for longest gap between returns at 16 years. Even to this day, Ethan is one of the top social games ever played, and we’ve seen with the recent victories of Tommy Sheehan (“Survivor Island of the Idols”) and Wendell Holland (“Survivor Ghost Island”) that this style of gameplay is still very dangerous, and can realistically net someone a win. So, Ethan is my male pick to win the whole thing right? Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh…Nnnnnnnnnnnnnoooooo. Much as I love Ethan, and hope that I’m wrong in my assessment, I peg him as a pre-merge boot on this season. There’s two different, but related, factors to why I don’t see Ethan having a long shelf-life in this game. Ethan’s style of gameplay definitely still holds up, but he’s also been very vocal online about how “easy” the game is these days, and when he has talked about coming back, it’s to “show people how it’s done.” Much as I praise Ethan’s overall gameplay, I don’t give anyone good odds to win twice if they don’t change SOMETHING up about their game (some might say Sandra’s the counterargument to this, but I’d argue that she upped the intensity of her scheming on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, creating a distinct game from her first win). If Ethan’s not willing to adapt at least a little, he’s in trouble. His other issue is, well, the attitude I just mentioned. Recent players especially are not going to take their game being belittled like this well at all, and I could see that running counter to Ethan’s natural charm. I hope Ethan’s got enough good sense to keep that attitude in check, but as it stands, I just think the elitist attitude is going to come through, and lead to an early exit for Ethan. To end on a positive note, I will say that I enjoyed his answer as to how long he’s been watching “Survivor”. “…since Richard Hatch first took advantage of CBS’ ability to pixelate a moving image.” There’s the fun and charming Ethan we know!

Sandra Diaz-Twine (“Survivor Pearl Islands”, Red Tribe): The Queen herself! Of course, a season tackling legends such as these would be incomplete without the only two-time winner in the history of the show. Naturally, between this, her snark, and her ability to sabotage people without getting caught, I am thrilled to have Sandra back again. It’s only right and fair on a season like this. That said, I’m fairly certain this will be Sandra’s worst outing yet in terms of placement. Even on a season made up of pretty much nothing but big targets, she still stands out, with only Boston Rob and Amber (as a pair) possibly eclipsing her threat level. She’s in a similar position to Richard Hatch on “Survivor All-Stars”. Everyone wants to dethrone the queen. Sandra is wily enough that I don’t see her being the VERY first boot, but again, expect her to go pre-merge. She doesn’t work well as a shield, and no one wants to risk her getting far. Recipe for disaster on a season such as this.

Amber Mariano (“Survivor All-Stars”): Jumping ahead a bit to touch on my overall thoughts, I’m quite happy with this cast in general, and the women they chose in particular. This cast as a whole is actually my least-objectionable returnee cast since I’ve been blogging, beating out the previous record holder, “Survivor Cambodia”, with only three choices I disagree with to “Cambodia’s” four. And again, the women are overall much less objectionable than the men, in my opinion. Amber is the exception. Who in their right mind thought it was a brilliant idea to bring Amber back? Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure she’s a lovely person, but on screen, she’s just BORING! Basically no flavor to her personality, and just there to be generically “nice”. It would be one thing if she was coming back on her own, but I have to say it was a dick move by the producers to bring her back with Boston Rob, since it torpedoes any chance she has of winning this thing. Rob would have a target on his own, but Amber, on her own, might fly under the radar on a season like this, and do quite well. But while Rob is a threat individually, he and Amber combined are probably the biggest threat around. We might have players who played together before, but there’s a difference between being allies and being MARRIED! They’ve basically got the downside of being a couple on a “Blood vs. Water” season, when everyone else is single, and thus, one of them is going out early. Most other analysis I’ve seen says Boston Rob will be the early target, but I personally think Amber is going to be the initial target. Boston Rob may be a threat, but he’s good as a shield, good at camp life, and good at challenges, for his age. There’s reasons to keep him around. Amber? There’s no real reason to keep her, and with Boston Rob around, there’s a reason to get rid of her: Her exit weakens Boston Rob’s game. As such, Amber will be the first boot out of this season. Unless the tribe REALLY wants to get rid of the biggest threats early (and as I’ll discuss at the end, I don’t see that happening this season), Amber brings the least to the tribe, and gains a lot for the tribe by being gone. Such a shame, too, as we could have had someone a lot more intriguing this time around. Someone like…

Vecepia Towery (“Survivor Marquesas”): Perhaps a controversial choice, but while Vecepia was not the most memorable player on her season, she at least had a couple of moments, and a lot more agency in the game than Amber ever demonstrated. Vecepia, while “quiet” by today’s standards, had a subtle strategy that I’d like to see play out in a modern setting. Plus, if you were looking for “random, non-threatening winner from an early season” for this slot, I’d argue that Vecepia fits better since she’s, you know, NOT MARRIED TO ANOTHER PLAYER, THEREBY BEING A MAJOR TARGET THROUGH NO FAULT OF HER OWN! Oh, and she’s the only African-American woman to win “Survivor”. Does that count for nothing, CBS? Shouldn’t you at least have CONSIDERED her in casting?

Danni Boatwright (“Survivor Guatemala”, Blue Tribe): Stars be praised, “Survivor Guatemala” is getting its first representative on a returnee season! At last, CBS acknowledges the season for the underrated gem that it is, bringing back a stellar strategist to boot! Yeah, I’m a bit excited to see Danni back. While I admit she was by no means my favorite player on the season, I cannot deny that she played a superb game that flew below the radar even of the producers. As to how she’ll do, I’d say Danni has a decent shot at winning the whole thing, possibly even a dark horse for a victory. Danni strikes me as the type able to adapt to whatever situation she’s thrown in, and so won’t play the same game, but take the best elements from her old game, and combine them with what works now. Point being, she’s a threat, but from a relatively forgotten season. This means she won’t be used as a shield, but also means she can slip in as a number, without being a “Hey, what about that person?” sort of boot. My only concern with Danni, as I’ll talk about with other players, is how much drive she has to win this game. The one drawback to an all-winners season is that you run the risk of people basically saying “Eh, I’ve won already, I don’t need to try hard this time.” While I don’t think Danni will go this way, I could see her taking things a bit easier than before, feeling that she’s accomplished what she needed to on her first season. Still, since Danni strikes a good balance of savvy-enough to play well, but not so savvy as to be threatening, I see her making the late merge, possibly even the final episode, and would not be that surprised if she won.

Yul Kwon (“Survivor Cook Islands”, Red Tribe): Keeping up the positivity train, I’m happy to see Yul back in the game. He played one of the more dominant games of the first half of the show, but knows how to play the diplomat as well. He was one of my favorites on the season (though I must admit I like Cao Boi slightly more), and his return fills me with joy. Also surprise, since Yul was a person I thought had kind of moved on from “Survivor”. Still, he deserves to be back for his performance alone, and I think his return will be rewarded. Yes, Yul is my male pick to win the season, and if you were to put a gun to my head, and forced me to give one name only to be the winner, I would probably go with Yul. Like I said, the guy’s a diplomat, and still built enough to be considered a “threat”, and so can get in on a “meat shield” alliance. That said, I think Yul will be underestimated since people will say “Well, he only won because he had a super idol”. While technically true, I’d say people unfairly undersell Yul’s game because of this. Yes, he had that idol, but it would only have saved him once if he hadn’t used it properly. Instead, he used it to put pressure on a swing vote, and give his side the majority for the rest of the game. Yul is a big threat, but an underestimated one, and so I’d say he’s probably going to be the second two-time winner in the history of the show.

Parvati Shallow (“Survivor Micronesia”, Blue Tribe): And, there goes the positivity train. Don’t misunderstand, I’m happy Parvati’s back. The woman who helped organize the “Black Widow Brigade”, and won my favorite season of all-time, is always worth bringing back, and well worthy of a season of this caliber. The trouble is that Parvati, like Sandra, is an obvious threat who doesn’t work well as a shield for you. As such, Parvati is another pre-merge boot, though I could see her being our Edge of Extinction merge returnee, since she’s not as bad in challenges as one might think, especially if it ends up being endurance or balance-based. If so, then she probably leaves pretty much immediately after. She’s still a threat at the merge, and I don’t see these players suffering people winning their way back in gladly. Parvati’s time on the island this time around will be nasty, brutish, and short, but fun nonetheless. One minor upside for Parvati: She’s competitive enough that I don’t see her going “Eh, I already won.” at any point. Not sure it’s enough to save her, but a point in her favor nonetheless.

“Boston” Rob Mariano (“Survivor Redemption Island”, Blue Tribe): I kind of already went over my thoughts on Boston Rob already, so his bio may be kind of short. With the possible exception of Sandra, Rob is probably the biggest threat going into this season. Without Amber there, he would still be a big threat, but the threat of “couples” puts him over the top. That said, once Amber leaves, his threat level takes a big step down, and coupled with a probably “shield” alliance he can get going, I expect Boston Rob to stick around for a while. Not only can he be a good shield, but he’s going to make camp life a lot more comfortable, which is no small consideration. He probably gets voted out in the early merge, once he loses an immunity, but again, he’s not in bad shape, so I still expect him to do well in challenges, even winning his way back from the final Edge of Extinction Challenge. Like Parvati, he’ll be voted out shortly after, since no one on this season will let another “Chris Underwood” situation happen like on the titular “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, but as a result, Rob will be around until the final episode. I suppose I should also mention that he’s part of the reason I have Parvati going early, since I don’t see him forgetting “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” any time soon. As to my happiness at his return… Eh? While I don’t hate Boston Rob, I’ve never been his biggest fan, and five times playing the game (six if you count his mentorship on “Survivor Island of the Idols”, which I don’t) feels like too much for anyone. That said, outside of Rupert (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) and possibly Richard Hatch (“Survivor Borneo”), he’s one of the most easily recognized players by the general public, and played one of the more dominant games seen by a winner, so even if I don’t like it, he has earned his right to come back.

Sophie Clarke (“Survivor South Pacific”, Red Tribe): For most of these returnees, as soon as I heard they were coming back, I had at least a base opinion on their chances. Sophie was the exception for me. Sophie is a bit of a paradox in the world of “Survivor”: the person who played the smartest game by actively choosing to do nothing. It’s not like she even went out of her way to go to the end with despised people, she was just able to articulately explain her decisions well, and earned a deserved victory for it. Honestly, I was pleasantly surprised to see her back, since her game was not the most exciting, and she seems to get snubbed by CBS as a result. I’m glad to see that her snark is recognized, and am very happy to have her back on the season as well. Like I said, though, I wasn’t certain of her chances. Playing the same game doesn’t work twice, and that goes double in the case of Sophie. One of the reasons her strategy worked last time was the fanatical loyalty that Upolu had to Coach, thus allowing her to take things slow and quiet. That will not be the case this time. Hence, hers was one of the bios I was most interested in reading this time, to see if she recognized this. Thankfully she did, so I give Sophie decent odds in this game. I don’t see her winning, but if she can adapt her strategy to better fit this more proactive group, I see her making the mid-to-late merge before people basically say “Hey, wait a minute…” and boot her off. We’ll get plenty of snark, though, which is ok by me!

Kim Spradlin-Wolfe (“Survivor One World”, Red Tribe): I’m not going to mince words: Kim is my female pick to win the whole season. Kim, like Boston Rob before her, played quite a dominant game, but unlike Boston Rob, did it on her first try. This speaks volumes to her gamesmanship skills, and I would be foolish to say that she has no shot at winning as a result. True her dominant performance does make her a threat, yet poor shield, sort of similarly to Parvati, but I think Kim is helped by the fact that “Survivor One World” is frankly not a good season. This makes her game less well-remembered, and also gives people the psychological out of “Oh, she was playing against idiots, and I’m not an idiot, so of course I’ll beat her!”, which gives her an edge. I could be very wrong here, since her performance was SO dominant as to be memorable in its own right, and it’s why, if forced to pick a winner between her and Yul, I’d bet on Yul. I’m also a bit worried since Kim says she’s playing this season “intuitively”. Not that this isn’t necessarily true, but I wonder how much Kim has really thought about this pre-season. If she hasn’t done much, and other people have, she may be in trouble. That said, Kim’s instincts have rarely proven wrong, and she’s a dominant player who does not necessarily come across as one, so I’d say she’s a probable winner for the season, and well deserving of her spot.

Denise Stapley (“Survivor Philippines”, Blue Tribe): Outside of Ethan, Denise is probably the person I’m most excited to see back. Us Psychology peeps have to stick together after all. Similarly to Sophie, she’s one I was pleasantly surprised to see back. She didn’t make much of a splash on her season compared to the Malcoms and the Lisas, but she had a wit about her that I liked, and played a simple, yet smart, game. It’s an intelligent choice I’m proud to say is on this season. That said, unlike Sophie, but like Ethan, I don’t give Denise very good odds in this game. She fares slightly better than Ethan, since I think she’s an early merge boot, but I just don’t see her winning. While Denise surviving EVERY SINGLE TRIBAL COUNCIL is an impressive feat (an another reason she deserves to be on a season such as this), the fact is that apart from a tight partnership with Malcolm, her strategy never seemed to coalesce. That is to say, she definitely had a strategy, but it was kind of a “go with the flow” strategy. That can get you through the early phases of a season like this, but she’s going to need to up her game in order to have a shot. Frankly, I didn’t see Denise doing that before this season, and in her bio she talks about not changing her game that much, which is her death knell to me. Simply due to their being bigger fish to fry, she lasts until the merge, but not much beyond that, which is a shame.

Tyson Apostol (“Survivor Blood vs. Water”, Red Tribe): Hoo boy, controversial opinion time. I know that Tyson is a lot of people’s favorite player, or at least amongst their favorite players. Read a list of “Funniest Players” and you’re almost guaranteed to see Tyson’s name on there. However, humor is subjective, and for me, Tyson just doesn’t do it. Personal, I know, but I just don’t like his style of humor. His delivery is excellent, but he seems to go in for insult comedy, which to me only really works if you insult yourself as much as you insult other people. Maybe it’s just what we’re shown, but Tyson doesn’t seem to do that all that often, and it just rubs me the wrong way. Plus, I’m not a fan of jokes about encouraging people to kill themselves. On a more objective criticism note, while Tyson definitely played a fantastic game his third time out, he’s not what I’d call a “legendary” player like you’d want on this season, and frankly, I think his story arc kind of had the perfect conclusion on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”. He went from not taking the game that seriously his first time out, to trying to take it more seriously but making a dumb move, to earning his redemption with a well-deserved win. No need to sully that story with an unnecessary fourth appearance. With all that said, how do I think Tyson will do? I put him as another early merge boot. His demeanor is non-threatening, and I could also see him being kept around as a shield. However, once the merge hits, he becomes much more of a threat, and is voted out as a result. Not a bad showing, but I still think we could have done better. So, who would I have cast instead?

Chris Daugherty (“Survivor Vanuatu”): For me, this is the biggest snub of the season. Chris may not be as big a character as Tyson is, but if you’re looking to really pit the best against each other, it’s a crime to not have Chris back to test his mettle. The man was down 1-6 on a gender-divided season and STILL won! That takes some gumption, and it kills me that we don’t get to see him test himself against the best. Frankly, if he were here, he’d have beaten out Yul as my male pick to win the whole thing. Plus, I just wanted to see his prediction from the “Survivor Vanuatu” DVD come true. Is that so wrong?

Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”, Red Tribe): While I’m not as big a Tony fan as some others, and feel his game is overvalued, I cannot deny that he has earned his spot amongst the best of the best. Equal parts character and strategist (even if that strategy amounts to “throw it at the wall and see what sticks” in my opinion), Tony is definitely one of the more memorable and engaging winners of more recent seasons, and so of course he’s going to come back. He’s also going to be a major factor in Sandra going out early, since like with Boston Rob and Parvati, I don’t see him forgetting their last appearance together. That said, while I don’t see Tony doing as poorly as he did on “Survivor Game Changers”, I still have him pegged as a pre-merge boot, probably right after the swap. Some might argue he’d be kept around as a shield, but shields need to be reliable, at least in terms of strategy. A lot of words come to mind when I think of Tony. “Reliable” is not one of them. Even if he might be good to take deep in the game, he’s too volatile to risk. There’s people who go before him on his tribe, but he’s an easy boot at the swap, so that’s where I see him going.

Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”, Blue Tribe): Having played one of the best “Revenge” games in the show’s history, and helping salvage the season from the blandness that is Jon Misch, Natalie is someone who very much earned a spot back on this season. And I think her gameplay will serve her well this time around as well. The woman’s loud enough and dominant enough to work as a shield, but not so much as to be considered a major threat who needs to be targeted early. All that makes for a good combination, leading to a probably mid-merge boot. I don’t put her higher only because she’s one of the few people who says she won’t change her game that much, and while not the worst thing in her case, that can only take you so far. Her only other pitfall, I’ll discuss in the next bio.

Jeremy Collins (“Survivor Cambodia”, Blue Tribe): Ok, I have to say it: WHAT IDIOT DIVIDED THESE TRIBES? Look, putting enemies together on one tribe was going to be inevitable, especially since about half of the original “Villains” tribe is on this season, but did you need to put ALLIES together? Would it have really been that hard to put Jeremy and Natalie on separate tribes to start out with? This is the other pitfall I mentioned for Natalie, and it goes for Jeremy as well. While not the same as being married, two close allies together on the same tribe is trouble, and if their tribemates recognize this, one of them at least is going early, if not both. That said, I think Jeremy and Natalie are both smart enough to keep their connection on the down-low, and since their shared season is not that well-remembered, I’d expect Jeremy to do well as well, keeping up yet modifying his “shields” idea, and getting to the early merge with it. I may be shooting myself in the foot, underestimating Jeremy a second time, but like on “Survivor Cambodia”, I think he’s just outclassed. These people aren’t going to let him get to the end again, but he should get decently far, assuming he keeps his alliance with Natalie under wraps. For those wondering why I bring up the “shields” strategy so much in this cast assessment: Bear in mind that Jeremy is so far the only man to win an all-returnee season. The only model we have for men winning these seasons was created by him. The other dominant players would be fools not to follow, with modifications, his example. For engineering that strategy into the popular lexicon, Jeremy is definitely worthy of his spot among the best.

Michele Fitzgerald (“Survivor Kaoh Rong, Blue Tribe): Longtime readers of mine will know of my love for Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”) to the point that she’s my favorite player of all time. However, contrary to what this might imply, I am THRILLED that Michele’s back. Similar to Sophie, she played a game worthy of respect, but not respected by CBS, so I’m glad she gets another chance to show them how you actually play the game well. While I respect Aubry’s game, Michele also played a great game, and is a worthy winner to her season (in case anyone was wondering, while I do dislike the outcome of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, it is because the editors did not take the time to adequately show us Aubry’s “faults”, thus making Michele’s victory seem unearned. However, this is entirely the fault of the editing team/post-production, and not any of the players on that season. In my view, it is possible to say that both Michele and Aubry played good games, and still not be satisfied with the outcome). Normally I’d be concerned with Michele’s chances, since she’s another one who says she won’t change much. Michele, however, is the exception that proves the rule, as I think she’s the one person who can play the same game over and over and keep winning. When I think of Michele, the first word that comes to mind is “chameleon”. Michele just has a natural ability to blend into whatever situation or group she finds herself in, and argued properly (which Michele has shown she can do), this is a winning strategy. It says something that even on a season and a tribe that skews older, I give Michele good odds, despite being one of the youngest players of the season. That said, do I think that strategy will give her a win? Possibly, but I’d say she’s probably out around the mid-to-late merge area. Michele is good, but so is her competition. Close to the end, they’ll say “Hey wait a minute! What’s she still doing here?” and there’s nothing she can do about it. A shame, but I expect a good showing from Michele nonetheless.

Adam Klein (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”, Blue Tribe): Oh, Adam. I like you buddy. I really do. I’m even ok with you being here, representing the “superfan” winner since Cochran (“Survivor South Pacific”) can’t. But MAN, do you not have a snowball’s chance at winning this season. Adam has a few factors working against him. While not a dominant winner, his win is recent enough to still be fresh in people’s memories, and make them wary. Adam’s also on the younger end of things this season, which will make it harder for him to connect with people. And while I enjoy his superfan status, I fear it will blind him in terms of the game and/or annoy his fellow players. I can see Ethan or Boston Rob getting fed up with hero worship pretty quickly. Really, though, for me what kills Adam’s chances of winning is his determination and story. Sad though it is to say, a lot of Adam’s win had to do with the regrettable death of his mother. That was a driving factor in why he played so hard on his season, and in his closing arguments for his win. Without these factors, I don’t see him playing hard enough to stay in, and as such is an easy pre-merge boot. A shame, since I like the guy, but I call them like I see them.

Sarah Lacina (“Survivor Game Changes”, Red Tribe): AGAIN, REALLY? So, not only do we have allies Jeremy and Natalie on the same tribe, but we have Sarah and Tony on the same tribe now as well? WHY? It’s not just that it’s an edge for one side or the other, depending on how you look at it, but it could have been so easily avoided! Swap Sarah and Natalie, and bam! Tribes are still balanced, but no major allies end up on the same starting tribe! This is not rocket science, people! While I may not be happy with her tribe placement, I am happy to see Sarah back again. Her win was one of the better parts of “Survivor Game Changers”, and I’m always happy to see someone back who admits they’ve made mistakes and have learned from them. Really, the main mark against Sarah is Tony, since the pair of them do stick out as an alliance, making them a threat, but since I see Tony going early, this is less of a problem for Sarah. She probably makes the early-to-mid-merge, but I just don’t think enough time has passed for her to have a real shot at winning. I touched on this briefly with Adam, but we’re getting to the point in the series now where everyone remembers your past game, and you seem more of a threat because of it. This will be Sarah’s undoing, but she’ll stick around a good bit before then.

Ben Driebergen (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”, Blue Tribe): Perhaps a controversial opinion, but I’m totally cool with Ben getting another shot at the game. Yes, he used a lot of idols and advantages towards the end, but unlike some, I tend to put the fault for that on his fellow players rather than Ben or production. You’re trying to get this guy out, have a majority of players over him, and you DON’T set a watch on him? You deserve what you get. Plus, even bearing in mind all the edges he had in the game (he definitely doesn’t win without final four fire making), the dude’s a nice guy and a deserving winner. Hopefully this time he can shake off the stigma of supposed “production help”. That said, I’m not sure he’s going to get the chance to do it, since Ben is another pre-merge boot, if you ask me. What Ben’s most remembered for are the “Ben Bombs” at Tribal Council, and the fact is, like Tony, this leads to an unpredictability in his game I don’t see this group tolerating. Ben might make the swap at least, but I don’t see him getting much beyond that.

Wendell Holland (“Survivor Ghost Island”, Red Tribe): Wendell played very well on his season, and I stand by the comparison to Ethan Zohn. He has the same social upside as Ethan, without the cumbersome baggage of early-season elitism. Really, Wendell’s biggest issue is just how recently he won. True, it was not a dominating performance on his own, and I could see people looking at him like JT or Stephen from “Survivor Tocantins” playing without their other half, and thereby not being a threat. However, while close, a tie vote does stick in the mind, and I don’t see Wendell being able to play as low-key as he did the last time as a result. There’s always going to be some eyes on him, which will understandably make his game harder. That said, one’s social graces should not be underestimated, and I’d say Wendell’s skills will take him to the early-to-mid-merge area, especially since Wendell seems to recognize what he’s going to need to change in his bio. At that point, though, he just sticks in the mind too much, and goes home. If it’s any consolation, I do think he deserves a spot on this season. Even leaving aside the “Winner to win in a tiebreaker” milestone, he reminded us that, even in this day and age, social game wins out over flashy moves, and that counts for a lot in my book.

Nick Wilson (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”, Red Tribe): Rounding out our cast, we have what I consider to be one of the odd choices of the season. I understand why they cast Nick. “Survivor David vs. Goliath” is the most recent season to get an overall positive reception, and is one of the few in the 30’s to get such a reception. It’s well-remembered and well-liked, so of course you want the winner back. However, while I definitely like and respect the season, it’s got little to do with Nick. He’s hardly a BAD winner, but aside from the nickname thing (which I personally found annoying thanks to my Post-Phillip-Sheppard-Stress-Disorder), does he really stand out as a winner? He played a solid game, but an unremarkable one, and on a season supposedly celebrating the best of the best, I think we could do better. While you might argue that Nick’s in a good spot due to not standing out, I still peg him as a pre-merge boot, though probably post swap. Simply put, he’s too recent and too young. Our youngest player on the season will have a hard time bonding with an overall older cast, and his recent win will mean he’s always a target. Hence, when you need someone out at the swap, there’s Nick Wilson, easy target. That said, since I don’t think he should be on this season, who would I put in his place?

Mike Holloway (“Survivor Worlds Apart”): Again, a controversial call, and for me “Survivor David vs. Goliath” is far and away a better season than “Survivor Worlds Apart”. But love or hate him, Mike Holloway is MEMORABLE, which Nick, for me, is not. Plus, Mike won in a unique way, immunitying his way to the end, which would have been good to see represented on this season, and see how it stacks up against the other styles of gameplay. Unlike the other replacements I’d have on the season, Mike was at least CONTACTED, but still, given how unusual his win was, this still feels like a snub.

And there you have it, one of the best returnee casts this show has ever had! For all my complaints, most of these choices are logical, and while CBS is doing their damnedest to make this a bad season, there’s still a joy in seeing all the winners together. Since I doubt we’ll get a straight Pagonging this season, an analysis of the tribes seems almost irrelevant, but for what it’s worth, despite not producing a winner pick I give the Blue tribe an edge early on. Both tribes are fairly evenly matched in terms of challenge ability, but I think Red has more challenge sinks. Since so many challenges are “Only as fast as your slowest member”, I see them losing the first couple (probably where Amber and Sandra go), but then finding their footing at a swap, with only a vulnerable couple (Tony, Nick) going at that point. As mentioned, I also see a “shields” strategy being prominent this season, with Jeremy and Boston Rob doing it jointly on the Blue Tribe, while Yul and Kim probably lead the charge on the Red tribe.

So, as to the twists of this season. Edge of Extinction is back once again, and as I hope I’ve made clear, I am not a fan. It either takes up too much time in the game or produces an unsatisfying winner, neither of which is a good outcome for the show. That being said, since these players know about it going in, and since I doubt they’ll award an Edge of Extinction returning player, I’m hopeful that this will be like Redemption Island on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, and be an element that is ultimately more of a time-wasting irrelevance than something that actively makes the season awful. Thus, I will not hate the season immediately for having this twist, but it is on thin ice. I also see this Edge of Extinction either having no quitters ever (due to just how determined people are this season) or having a ton of quitters (due to people saying “I’ve won before, I don’t need to starve again for a shot to get back in”), either of which would be a more intriguing dynamic than what we got the first time, though again, it leads to far too big a jury. The $2,000,000 prize money is an appropriate touch, though I do kind of wish that it was $3,000,000, just so that the winner of this season automatically won the most money off of “Survivor” no matter what. An then, there are the “Fire Tokens”. If, for some reason, you are coming to me first, Fire Tokens are a “currency” added to this season of the game. People on Edge of Extinction offer items such as food up for sale in exchange for these tokens, which they in turn can use to make the return challenge easier. This… is actually not a bad idea. True, I am annoyed that it’s putting more emphasis on Edge of Extinction, but it gives the people there something to do that’s more connected to the game, and unlike some twists, I think has interesting social implications. I don’t know how many of you remember the old show “Pirate Master” but I liked it, and one of the things I liked most was that you earned prize money as you went, but could trade it with other players in the hopes of swaying them to your side. It added a new social dynamic, and a new value to the money, and I think it could work well on “Survivor”. Even the willing of tokens if voted out I don’t mind, as they’re not as powerful as a Legacy Advantage, and do emphasize the social aspect of the game. So, in conclusion, I think the idea of Fire Tokens area an intriguing new addition to the game… FOR A NEWBIE SEASON!

Soapbox time, but this, to me, is what’s wrong with modern “Survivor”: no pacing. Contrary to some, I would not want a season free of all idols and advantages. While we complain about them, the fact is they can help shake up the game, and make Pagongings slightly less likely. Yes, the early seasons were hardly boring, but at this point, we can’t really go “back to basics” without a bit of culture shock. No, my issue with modern “Survivor” is the rate at which it GIVES OUT these new twists and advantages. While an exaggeration, it feels like every season has five new elements added to the game. I get the need to innovate. I agree with changing things up to prevent us seeing the same show over and over again. But PACE YOURSELF! This season has returning players. Returning WINNERS! A twist fans have been begging for for years! That, plus hidden immunity idols and MAYBE one extra advantage is all you need. Save your new ideas for a future season. You could build an entire season around the idea of Fire Tokens! Why waste the idea on a season we were already excited for anyway? This is especially perplexing to me since the show now seems rooted in Fiji, and NEEDS to have a theme for each season, since the locations aren’t distinct any more. Why do you throw out so many ideas at once, when ONE will do? “Survivor”, in short, is shooting its bolt too early, and I think in the long run, will pay the price for it.

Still, I’ve been wrong before. Perhaps the stellar cast will overcome the other bad news about the season. I won’t be recapping the special from the week before, since I would just be recapping the recap, so I’ll see you after the premiere of “Survivor Winners at War”!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor MGX” Episode 7: She Sells Seashells

While many are still comparing Hannah to Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”), and I’ll admit that Hannah actually does something to earn that comparison this episode (albeit briefly), I think people are missing a more apt “Survivor Kaoh Rong” comparison. Why is nobody pointing out how Michaela is basically Cydney? Both are challenge beasts, have “tell it like it is” quotes, and even hidden intelligence. But, I hear you protest, didn’t Cydney have a terrible social game (evidenced by the hatred of the jury at that last fire-making challenge), while Michaela is a social genius? To that, I respond that someone yelling out their strategy to the entire group of contestants at an immunity challenge, as Michaela did last episode, is far from a smart social game, especially as someone who always speaks her mind. So yeah, these two are pretty similar. Really, the only differences between them are Michaela is a bit more inherently likable, and Cydney is evidently a bit more inherently smarter.

Yeah, you heard me right. The evidence in this episode speaks for itself. Cydney chose to keep her intelligence largely under wraps, letting it out only when needed. Michaela, for all her values, did not have this advantage, and this was her doom, in a real topper of an episode this season.

But, of course, we must start with our requisite fallout from the last Tribal Council. Taylor is pissed! There’s an incredible shock! Adam, the one left on Takali who really needs to do damage control, demonstrates more skill in this area than anyone on this season so far, by first asking if the burned person is READY to talk before actually engaging in the talking. Mind you, he still makes a right pig’s ear of it all. Adam apologizes up and down for burning Taylor, an approach I’d normally deride, but here I think it’s actually the smart play. Taylor, as will be emphasized repeatedly throughout the episode, is not a thinker. Man plays with his heart. Emotion matters more to him than strategy. True, Adam does need to follow up his emotional appeal with the logic of why he had to do what he did, but only by starting off this way can he appeal to Taylor. Mind you, he still DOES have to explain himself, and here’s where he falls short. It may just be that we didn’t see it, but Adam never really tries to justify his actions, instead repeatedly emphasizing how he screwed Taylor and betrayed him. Again, this needs to be PART of Adam’s argument, but by just having the “I screwed you.” emotional part of the conversation, you’re only fueling Taylor’s fire. To Adam’s credit, though, Taylor takes it about as well as could be hoped. Granted, Taylor says that he’s still out for revenge against Adam, but given that Adam voted out his lover, that’s understandable. As Taylor just agrees to not make waves for now, I’d call this a success. Having someone out for your blood is never good, but under the circumstances, I think this is the best that could be hoped for in Adam’s case.

Another part of the fallout of Adam’s move was the fear that the old Takali would reunite and be unbreakable, thus putting Adam on the bottom of another majority. The counter to that comes next morning, when David gets paranoid about whether or not Chris will screw him. As I’ll talk about near the end of this blog, I do think the old Takali are more likely to come together than the old Vanua, but this is not like an Upolu situation from “Survivor South Pacific”. These six may be able to unite, but it’s not like they were tight from the beginning. There’s cracks, and those cracks can be exploited, helping to justify Adam’s move.

So, what does David do about his paranoia over Chris? Why, he reveals his idol to Zeke, of course! Ok, I can see David bonding with Zeke. I can see David trusting Zeke. I can even see David telling Zeke about the idol later. But now? The pair haven’t had THAT much of a chance to bond, and given how close Zeke has been to Chris, I’d be a bit suspicious. I’d at LEAST tell Jessica and Ken about your idol before I’d tell Zeke. Granted, David’s not on the same tribe as them, but the point that they’re more trustworthy than Zeke at this point is work taking into account. Many have accused David of making big moves for the sake of big moves (his saving of Jessica being a major example), and here’s one example that I can’t disagree with. The only reason to trust Zeke with idol information at this point is desperation to do something major, and I think it may backfire on David down the line.

Coming into our reward challenge, Jay can only proclaim the phrase “sick” While I have an intense, burning hatred for this phrase, I can’t deny that this challenge is all kinds of awesome. Tribes start out in the water, where they must run to a pole, with a coil of metal around it, with a bag of balls tied to that coil. They must lift up one tribe member to unspool the balls, then bring them to shore. One at a time, those balls can be tossed down a chute into a fishnet, where they are worked through by two other tribe members. Once all three balls are through, they must be thrown and stay atop a thin wooden board. First tribe with all three balls atop wins a chef at their camp, while the second tribe gets do-it-yourself kebabs. Not too shabby, especially since the “personal chef” reward is a relatively less-used one. Not unheard-of, but less used. Likewise, most of these challenge elements have been heard of, but not used very often. The metal coil comes courtesy of “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, while the fishnet dates all the way back to “Survivor Thailand”, though this iteration bears more of a resemblance to a challenge from “Survivor Cagayan”. But ooh, that ball throwing ending. We’ve had challenges of putting balls on a target before, but, if you’ll forgive me for reusing a description from last episode, this nook is nothing short of sadistic. Unlike other ball nooks, which require power to reach, this one requires finesse, a very different skill. Even if other nooks also required finesse, those at least were form-fitting, mostly preventing the balls from being knocked out by other, wayward balls. There is no such comfort in this challenge, adding to the pressure. While the elements of the challenge are rehashes, they come together well, and I can’t help but once again agree with Jay’s assessment. Sick.

We, of course, get pretty major reactions from our fellow contestants, with Hannah giving her “shocked” expression at the whole situation. An expression she’s had a lot of practice at this season. Surprisingly, though, Michaela seems pretty happy. Probst asks her about this, since she’d directly called out Takali to get rid of an old Gen-X member, and her fallout was also another strike against Adam’s move last episode. Well, you can chalk this up as another downside nixed. Michaela, in yet another great quotable moment, says that she said what she needed to say, not what she felt. So yeah, who has Adam offended by this move? Taylor, definitely. Jay and Michelle, one Taylor gets back with them. All people he probably wasn’t going to work with anyway. Not a huge loss, all things considered. And a lot of gain, in weakening an alliance against them. But back to Michaela; while this is once again a great moment, it’s not the smartest move for her. Again, wearing one’s heart on one’s sleeve can reveal too much of one’s game, and while that’s not the DIRECT reason for Michaela’s ouster, it IS symptomatic of the larger problem of her game.

As if the challenge could not get more awesome, we get a good back and forth. Vanua falls behind early, due to the inexplicable decision to try and lift Zeke to do the balls, when you have the much lighter David and Michelle on your tribe. Takali and Ikabula are pretty even, but Ken’s tossing skills give Takali an edge. However, as this challenge involves balls, Chris is king. Between his throwing and Zeke and Michelle being surprisingly good at getting the balls through the fishnet, Vanua is back in the race, and as the last phase ALSO involves tossing balls, you can guess who has a great come-from-behind victory. Not quite as spectacular as Kass McQuillen’s on “Survivor Cagayan”, but impressive nonetheless. It’s a tight race for second, but Ikabula wisely puts Michaela on the last phase, and as we all know, Michaela is a challenge beast. She naturally clinches second, earning kebabs and a proud confessional about her skills for her trouble. However, Michaela also expresses some fear, as her challenge beasting may make her a threat, and she’s worried everyone else knows it. Michaela suggests that perhaps she hold back.

Oh Michaela. Michaela, Michaela, Michaela. That ship sailed a LONG time ago. We are well past the point where you can take it back. Just own it and run with it.

Bodily functions? Did I just change the channel? I thought I was watching “Survivor”, but this looks like “Family Guy”? No, our reward food has not, for once, manifested to what Dawn Meehan (“Survivor South Pacific”) would call a diarrhea fest, but instead in a fart-fest. So, it’s the “Survivor San Juan del Sur” version then? No, not a whole lot comes of this other than Michelle being paranoid about being the only woman left on Vanua. She should be paranoid, but not because she’s a woman. Rather, she should be paranoid because everyone on her tribe really IS out to get her. Or would that make her not paranoid?

AAGH! ELECTION TALK! You planned this, CBS. You somehow KNEW this episode would air the week before the election, just to make us miserable didn’t you? ADMIT IT! Well, at least there’s no way to make election talk any MORE cringe worthy…

AAGH! TAYLOR PONTIFICATING ABOUT BEING A MILLENNIAL! HE MADE IT WORSE! Yes, even the relative death of the “Millennials vs. Gen-X” twist cannot silence Taylor, as he has to bring annoying generational talk into irksome election talk. Now, to his credit, Taylor’s point about the electoral college being an outdated way of holding elections is actually a fair point, but couldn’t he have said that WITHOUT the generational comment?

Now, for all my complaints, this scene DOES actually have a point. While Adam is away gathering wood, Taylor beings to enact his revenge, planting the seed in Jessica and Ken’s minds that Adam had given him his word to not vote for Figgy, and then went back on it. This is actually halfway decent strategy. After all, one CONSTANT downside of betrayal is that it makes you lest trustworthy overall. Taylor is working that very well, helped by the fact that, as Jessica points out, Taylor is a simple, honest guy. There’s not a lot going on up there, which makes him far easier to read and manipulate than a strategist like Adam. Having him along, rather than people like Adam might therefore seem an appealing prospect. Time will tell if this comes to anything, but Taylor gets at least ONE feather in his cap this season.

Finally, FINALLY we get some insight into the inner workings of the Ikabula tribe. Granted, it was pretty clear from the beginning that the old Vanua would dominate, but now we get more insight into their politics. They overall don’t care who goes, by Sunday has been putting on a nice face for them. Bret, conversely, is under suspicion. He’s been throwing out the story that he’s a funeral director, not a police officer. Hello, plotline that came out of absolutely NOWHERE! Bret’s justification, unsurprisingly, is that cops tend to have a bad time on the show, and looking at the history of “Survivor”, he’s got a point. Jessie Camacho of “Survivor Africa”, Amy O’Hara of “Survivor Guatemala”, Betsy Bolan of “Survivor Samoa”, Sarah Lacina of “Survivor Cagayan”, and many others, all cops, all gone. Granted, many would cite Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”) as a counter-example, but we can also agree that Tony’s a breed unto himself. However, it’s also worth pointing out that, statistics or not, there’s really no correlation between these people being cops and their fates. In each of the examples listed above, there were extenuating circumstances for their evictions, none of which had to do with their professions. Jessie was dehydrated, Amy was injured and screwed by a tribe swap, Sarah went power-mad, and Betsy was on a season with Russell Hantz. Still, can’t say his caution isn’t justified.

Bret comes off as an ok liar from what we see of him, but evidently not good enough. Hannah calls him out EXACTLY as a cop after he and Sunday leave, with Jay agreeing, and the rest of the tribe not trusting Bret. This seems to seal Bret’s future fate, but kudos to Hannah for figuring that out. It’s one of the few times this season where she’s really seemed to have an Aubry-like knack for the game. Of course, it’s one instance out of many negative ones, so I still don’t support the comparison.

We come to our immunity challenge, which is once again a combination challenge, but not nearly as epic. Tribes toss coconuts into a basket, making it heavy enough to drop a banner with numbers. These numbers go to a combination lock, which gives one a key to unlock a slingshot. Once unlocked, the slingshot is used to knock over targets, with the first two tribes to knock over all five targets winning immunity. This challenge has elements from a few older ones, notably the coconut tossing from “Survivor Micronesia” and the slingshot from “Survivor South Pacific”. However, while it does ok, it is technically a rehash of a challenge, and doesn’t come across as that epic, so I can’t really give it my blessing.

Before we talk about the outcome of the challenge, let me talk about how happy I am that we even HAVE an immunity challenge here. Speculation on the show about when the merge will come has always bugged me, because, as demonstrated by “Survivor Thailand”, there’s no guarantee as to when it will come. However, that argument falls apart each and every season that the merge happens after episode 6 (episode 5 in some cases, but it’s early in either case). I get that it’s a part of the game, and I’ve gone on record saying that the merge phase is overall more interesting than the tribal phase, but I’d like to see variety, rather than the merge happening at pretty much exactly the same point. You know when was the last time the merge happened after episode 7? “Survivor Blood vs. Water”. Three years ago. Yeah, we’re well past due.

As to the challenge itself, there’s less back-and-forth than the reward challenge, but it’s still there. Tackle gets an early lead and keeps it. Ikabula puts up a good fight, but makes a fatal mistake in not having challenge beast Michaela work the slingshot, instead giving the job to Bret. Granted, they do later give the job to Michaela, and she sucks, but I’ll talk about that shortly. Meanwhile, Vanua falls behind during the coconut toss, and then a panic attack by Michelle on the combination lock puts them further behind Not for nothing is Chris on their tribe, though. He powers through the slingshot person, giving Vanua a fun, narrow victory. Probst points out that Ikabula will be going to Tribal Council for the first time as a tribe, and asks Sunday how long it will be before the scheming begins: minutes or seconds. Sunday gives a standard answer of minutes, justifying it as the tribe getting along well, and despite being underwhelming, I actually kind of like this answer. You see, most would be inclined to give a glib answer, but Sunday just answers honestly and sincerely. It’s refreshing to see that every once in a while.

It also turns out that Sunday grossly UNDERESTIMATED the length of time until the scheming set it. The tribe mopes for about a half-hour before getting up and doing things. Specifically, presumably to make sure that her tribe doesn’t do something stupid like vote her off, or even just agonize over who to vote for, Michaela does seashell math to show that, as long as either Bret or Sunday go, they’re in good shape. Actually quite a logical plan, but Michaela’s brashness finally begins to work against her in earnest. Jay, being the member of the “Triforce” alliance with a brain, starts to think that MAYBE Michaela, with brains as well as strength, is just too smart for her own good. Being Jay, though, this is still a dumb idea. I get that Michaela is a threat, but as she’s demonstrated this episode, she’s a LOYAL threat. Given that the old Millennials are a fractious bunch, loyalty is a premium right now. Vote off Michaela at this juncture, and you lose an important number. Assuming a merge next episode or the episode after, the best you can hope for would be a 7-5 split favoring the old Millennials. Given that Adam and Zeke are on the outs, and we the audience know the merge is coming next episode, making the split 7-6, this is very dangerous. I’m not saying the old Gen-X group is a tight bunch, but I think they know opportunity when they see it. This is a chance not to be missed, and they’ll probably unite to take out a fractured group of old Millennials. Keeping Michaela keeps your numbers up, and makes your coalition more united.

Fortunately, as we see no evidence of Jay talking to Bret or Sunday about all of this, it’s not going to happen. A valiant attempt at misdirection, but one that fails nonetheless.

Still, you can’t say Tribal Council is a bore. Everyone puts on their best Stepford Smiler face, and acts like one big happy family, when in reality things are about to be torn apart. And we get Michaela being mad at Probst, this time for the merge not happening when expected. Always funny.

So, the votes come in and Bret is naturally… wait, Michaela is getting mad? They DIDN’T!

They did!

Yes, in an entertainingly stupid move, Jay flips the script on Michaela, getting her out before the merge. Even out before the jury. For all the reasons outlined above, this is a stupid move, and one that probably cost Jay the game. Plus, as we saw in the preview for next episode, it may even cost him further allies, with Hannah feeling betrayed by the vote. From a viewer standpoint, this was also a huge loss. On a season that’s had trouble sustaining a good reputation for a character from one episode to the next, Michaela was a ray of fun that never lost her luster. As I said before, a real “Classic ‘Survivor’” type of character. In fact, one could almost compare her to Rupert Boneham (“Survivor Pearl Islands”): Not so good at strategy, but wears her heart on her sleeve, is a challenge beast, and is very quotable. And we don’t get to see her jury game. At least she gives us a good rant against Jay on her way out. Right up there with Judd Sergeant’s “Scumbags” speech from “Survivor Guatemala”.

As I’ve said before, stupidity is often more entertaining than being good at the game, and this is no exception. While the misdirection has been ok this season, this one really got me. Add onto that a lot of good quotes, strategizing from all three tribes, and a number of come-from-behind victories, and I’d dare say this episode is best of the season. Even if we did lose Michaela.

Up through now, I’ve been hoping that future episodes would be good. I don’t have to hope for this next one. Between the merge episode usually being exciting, and fissures in the alliances on both sides, this should be one hell of an upcoming episode.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

“Survivor” Retrospectives: South Pacific

And so we come to South Pacific. No, not the musical, the “Survivor” season. I have to admit, when I started doing “‘Survivor’ Retrospectives”, I wasn’t at all sure I was going to do this season. Not so much because it’s a hard season to analyze or anything. In fact, this one might be one of the easier seasons to get through in terms of all that goes on. No, I wasn’t sure I was going to do this one because this is where I come in. “Idol Speculation” stated with South Pacific. “Survivor Redemption Island” was just that bad that it caused me to start blogging about the show before anyone had any reason to give a damn about my opinion. But this also meant that I’d kind of already given my thoughts on the season, why go over it again? I’m doing it now, partly because I’m so obsessed that I need to finish EVERY season, regardless of whether or not I have much of anything to say about it, and partly because when I blog about a season, I talk about it on an episode-by-episode basis. True, I try to give some overall thoughts in my final blog of the season, but that’s still my knee-jerk reaction. Time and space let you see things you couldn’t before, and so, since I might have something different to say about it. So here we are, South Pacific. Was my first blogging season good? Bad? A little of both? An obvious “Guardians of the Galaxy” reference? Perhaps all of the above. Read on to find out.

Before commencing the reading on and finding out, though, I should give fair warning about spoilers. From this point forward, I write these blogs as if talking to someone who was already familiar with the outcome of the season, or at least didn’t care about knowing the major plot points of said season. If you just want to know what I generally think of the season, without any of these spoilers, scroll IMMEDIATELY to the bottom of this web page, where I have a section labeled “Abstract” that will give you just what you’re looking for. For everyone else, who wants to know what I think about this season in nauseating detail, it’s time.

CAST

Surprisingly for a season with returning contestants (a fact that will be talked about a LOT in later sections), the big star of this season is not one of said returning contestants, but the little red-haired nerd himself, John Cochran. Much like David Murphy on “Survivor Redemption Island”, Cochran (as he annoyingly insisted on being called) was built up BIG TIME pre-season. Not so much for his smarts, although that was a factor (Harvard-educated lawyer and all that), but for his superfan status. He was pitched as the uber-“Survivor” nerd, the one who actually got off the couch to play the game he loved. And, to some degree, he did not disappoint. He certainly had an encyclopedic knowledge of “Survivor”, certainly showed how happy he was to be in the game, and did, in my book, have a few moments of good strategy (which will be talked about in the “Twist” section). But what Cochran was most definitely was a character. While David Murphy seemed to fail to deliver in many ways, Cochran made sure he would not be forgotten. He was a caricature of a nerd, pathetic at challenges (even puzzle-based ones), cracking self-deprecating jokes about using the tribe machete, and falling victim to amusing injuries. He sort of floundered through most of the game, but did flounder in such a way that he would not be forgotten. Note that I say “not forgotten” instead of “liked”. This will amaze people who did not join “Survivor” fandom until “Survivor Caramoan” or later, but Cochran was not universally loved or respected like he pretty much is now. We’ll talk about the changing perceptions of Cochran when we come to that season, but for now, let’s focus on South Pacific. While it would be unfair to say that Cochran was universally hated or disrespected back in the day, and it would be fair to say that he was the big name people remembered from this season even then, Cochran was considered the “villain” of the piece. The trouble with Cochran being a caricature of the “Survivor” fanbase was that Cochran did not get shown in a positive light, largely. He did very little strategically, at least compared to what people expected of him, and there were many confessionals in which the Savaii tribe relentlessly berated Cochran and how pathetic he was. Given Cochran’s general performance, these could not be refuted, so he seemed like an insult to the “Survivor” fanbase. When he finally DID make a move that was purely his own (which will be gone over in the “Twist” section), it was seen as being so poorly executed and stupid that the fanbase grew even more insulted, and while he had a few supporters even then, the rallying cry was largely “Cochran sucks!” This softened somewhat by season’s end, due to the clip show “Survivor” used to do. Lest you think that what’s shown in the clip show never has an impact on the show, let South Pacific stand as the counterargument. Remember all those confessionals about how pathetic Cochran was? The clip show gave us how the tribe was treating Cochran to his face. Suffice to say, it wasn’t very nice. This gave Cochran a lot of sympathy, and while many still didn’t agree with his move, they could better understand why, and so Cochran became somewhat more popular. He still wasn’t particularly beloved, that wouldn’t come until “Survivor Caramoan”. At the very least, though, Cochran was acknowledged as being the big character of the season, and seen as somewhat put upon. For my part? I loved Cochran! While the whole “caricature” thing did get a bit old, I identified with how put-upon Cochran was by his tribe a lot. It seemed to me like he had some brains that he didn’t really get to show, since Savaii kind of cut him off at the knees before he had a chance to shine. He was somewhat funny, and had a lot of potential. Did he let me down from what I expected? Sure. Was he more annoying than I would have liked? Kind of? But was he still enjoyable, and did I like watching him? Yes. If you were going to have a flagship character for South Pacific, you could do worse than John Cochran.

But, of course, Cochran wasn’t the ONLY big name to come out of South Pacific. No, for all that we got the pretty cool John Cochran this season, we also had endure yet ANOTHER Hantz this time around! The producers obviously realized that they couldn’t use Russell again, after this last performance, but they couldn’t let that gold-mine die. So, we had a season where we had to endure his nephew, Brandon Hantz. While maybe not as hated as on his return on “Survivor Caramoan”, Brandon was still seen as annoying and hypocritical on his season. He was one of the annoying “moral crusaders” who wanted to play the game honestly, which we were sadly getting a LOT of at this point. On top of that, Brandon went back and forth on how he wanted to play. First he said he would hide his heritage from his tribe (something I thought would be difficult to do, given that the name “Hantz” was tattooed on his arm), but then goes out and reveals it in a big, cheesy confession that ate up valuable strategy time. He said he was going to take care of people, but then went on an attack against Mikayla Wingle for no apparent reason, only getting her voted out. I’ve been more of a Mikayla fan than most, but even I will admit that apart from being “the girl pursued for no reason by crazy Brandon Hantz”, she’s not memorable, and didn’t contribute much to the season. But back to Brandon. While we hadn’t seen the worst of him at this point, the audience still wasn’t big on him. He was preachy and stupid, and I completely agree with the audience here. Though not nearly as bad as Russell Hantz (“Survior Samoa”), in that he was somewhat more polite overall, Brandon’s schtick of morality and stupidity just got old really fast, and while he was remembered after the season, it wasn’t much fun to watch, and he’s part of what drags down the season.

Fortunately for “South Pacific”, for every Brandon-type character we had to endure, we had a good character to love, like Dawn Meehan. Once again, this is a case where the character became more well-known after a future appearance, but even during and after South Pacific, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who disliked Dawn, and many people remembered her fondly. Somewhat similar to how I viewed Cochran, Dawn was seen as someone who could potentially have good strategy, but got cut off in their prime. She also drew a lot of comparisons to Holly Hoffman (“Survivor Nicaragua”) as an older lady whose emotions got the better of her early game, but came back to do well. These comparisons are nor surprising, since Dawn was actually supposed to be on “Survivor Nicaragua”, but got cut for Holly instead, meaning the characters are so similar that CBS didn’t want two on one season. Still, Dawn was a great addition. You could tell that she had gumption. She was likeable, and for my part, it’s always fun to see an older lady on “Survivor”. I, like a lot of the audience, tend to feel they’re more interesting than the generic good-looking bikini babes “Survivor” likes to give us, and so Dawn was a great addition to the cast, and another part of what makes it stand out.

Before we delve into the returnees for this season, as well as those popular at the time that seasons since have made us forget, we must discuss someone who, while not HUGELY popular at the time, did make a big splash afterward. I’m talking about our winner for the season, Sophie Clarke. Sophie played a very quiet, snarky game. She was noticed on the season, giving a fair number of scathing confessionals about her fellow tribemates, but also showing a bit of personal growth, opening up more as the season went along. “Survivor” very rarely does story arcs with character development, at least over the course of a single season, but when they do happen, they usually show people developing strategically. Watch Kathy Vavrick-O’Brien on “Survivor Marquesas” if you want an example of a season-long story arc. But Sophie was a very rare case, since she developed socially. For a lot of fans, including myself, this was kind of fun to watch, with her snark keeping us entertained over the more boring parts. On top of this, Sophie was also always involved in strategy. Whenever you had a plan to flip, or a discussion of who to vote out, Sophie was there, which sort of quietly showed her intelligence. Oddly, though, Sophie is respected as a strategist, even though she never made an overt move. And here in lies the conundrum that is Sophie: she never actually made a move in the game, apart from getting into the winning alliance and giving a good Final Tribal Council Performance (one of the best of all time, in my opinion). And yet, unlike other winners who basically made no moves in the game, Sophie is generally respected as a good winner. Part of this, of course, is due to the fact that she wasn’t another returning contestant winner. Beyond that, however, one could see that by her not making a move, she actually dictated the course of the game. By her not flipping, others didn’t flip, and while this made for a fairly predictable game (which I’ll discuss the drawbacks of in the “Overall” section), it also meant that Sophie knew not to look a gift horse in the mouth. She knew that, if she stayed the course, she’d go to the end with people who were easy to beat, and so stopped those people from flipping, and potentially screwing her game up. One has to look closely to see (explaining why Sophie’s game is really only visible on rewatch), but Sophie did play the game really well, and this combined with her growth and wit made her a fairly good winner. Certainly better than her two predecessors. And she won the final immunity challenge against Ozzy Lusth (“Survivor Cook Islands”). That’s pretty cool. One thing that I also personally like about Sophie is that fact that she was a young woman on the show (22 at the time), yet clearly was not a dumb lady who looked good in a bikini. She was cast because she was a good character. Don’t get me wrong, Sophie is hardly unattractive, but she’s not the stereotypical model of feminine beauty that “Survivor” loves in their young women. I love that fact that arguably the most respected young winner of the show is the one who isn’t just a brainless beauty. Just goes to show that casting CHARACTERS rather than MODELS usually yields better season results.

Who, exactly, was this goat that Sophie wanted to take to the end. None other than the Dragon-Slayer himself. Benjamin “Coach” Wade was on this season, this time rambling on about both Christianity and Greek Mythology! While there was a certain amount of “Coach fatigue” by this point, Coach had been spaced out a little better than Russell Hantz, and so people were generally accepting of him. Coach played a better strategic game this time around, which people liked, and was arguably somewhat less irritating with the preachiness, but like Brandon Hantz, he contributed largely to the negative feelings most people have about this season. I won’t say that I liked Coach, but then I’ve never been a big Coach fan. Personally, I was more a fan of him on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, where he seemed to have some personal growth and was better than Russell Hantz, but while not the highlight of the season, he was still memorable. But even Coach pales in comparison to Challenge Jesus himself, the aforementioned Ozzy. Unlike other recent returnees, Ozzy had had a long hiatus from the show, making people happy to see him back. And Ozzy delivered exactly what people wanted to see. He was good outdoors. He was good in challenges. He was an overall nice guy. He brought a bit more strategy than in his previous incarnations, and as I’ll be discussing later, he was a nice monkey wrench in a season that was ultimately pretty predictable. Even so, I actually found Ozzy to be a bit preachy in a different direction, and I wasn’t a big Ozzy fan to begin with, so while I acknowledge his importance as a character, I don’t consider him a highlight of the season.

That’s where the currently notable characters end, but there are a couple more people who were semi-popular at the time that are worth talking about now. The first of these is supposed strategist Jim Rice. Similar to Dawn, Jim was seen as someone who had a lot of potential as a strategist (and even showed it by deposing Ozzy in a pretty fun manner, which I do give him points for), but got cut off at the knees by Cochran’s twist. He was also one of the people on the receiving end of Cochran’s move, and did not take it well. He got a lot of love as the voice of the audience when Cochran was hated. As Cochran became more popular, Jim Rice became less popular, due to his being rightly seen as a major bully of Cochran, and taking his vote-off too hard. I quite agree with the latter take on Jim Rice. I certainly respect that he had some strategic potential, particularly for his taking Ozzy down a peg, but the bitterness he had towards Cochran for a fair game move was one of the more unpleasant aspects of the season, and therefore, I think it’s only too right that he’s largely forgotten. He could have been great, but his actions made things uncomfortable, so good riddance. In a similar vain, Whitney Duncan was another potential strategist who fell from grace at least in part due to her treatment of Cochran. She had a few subtle strategy moments that both I and the audience rather liked, but again, once she was on the receiving end of Cochran’s move, she became pretty hard to listen to for how hard she was on Cochran. I did admire that, despite being another one of the “hot girls” of the season, she seemed to have a few brains, but like with Jim Rice, I can’t get beyond her treatment of Cochran. As if Whitney didn’t have enough of a hard time for this, her reputation was further tarnished by a scandal after the game. During her time, she had formed an alliance with fellow contestant Keith Tollefson (who isn’t remembered at all) via flirting. Most viewers assumed this was strategy on Whitney’s part, but afterwards, the two became engaged. This would be fine, another romance from the show, if it weren’t for the fact that Whitney was TECHNICALLY married at the time. This didn’t look good, and a subsequent appearance on “The Amazing Race” made her and Keith look like desperate reality-whores, the final nail in the coffin. It’s a bit of a shame. While I was never a big fan of Whitney’s she had some potential (more even than Jim, I’d say, since she was more subtle), and even though I don’t like her personally, she could have been a good all-star.

Most of the rest of the cast is pretty forgettable, and it’s a majority, unfortunately. Still, credit where credit is due, this season produced a LOT of good, memorable characters. Some you wish you could forget, and I do have to detract points for those people, but this season had many standouts who were good, and a decent amount of strategy besides. Is it one of the best casts the show has ever had. No, but it’s pretty decent, with a lot of excellent standouts, so I’d say this is one aspect of the season that does a good job.

Score: 7 out of 10.

CHALLENGES

Usually when I say a season is not beloved by the audience as a whole, I can at least say the challenges are good. This is not the case here. The challenges are complete crap. When they aren’t reused, they either fail to stand out or are just lame overall. Shall I remind you of the “Jack and Jill” challenge of matching masks, or the “Hold the coconut in ropes” challenge? Yeah, not the stuff of “Survivor” legend, or are just stupid and poor to look at in the case of the latter. This season had a couple of good challenges. One involved dismantling a cart to use it as a slingshot, and another had the “building a house of cards” challenge, but with an added balance component. But for every one of these, there’s a “toss the coconut in the hole” challenge. Yeah, this season wins virtually no points in the challenge department. Bland, forgettable, and often not that challenging.

Score: 2 out of 10.

TWISTS

I know I made the joke “A Tale of Two Twinnies” about the finale of “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, but I’m sorely tempted to reuse a similar pun her. “A Tale of Two Twists” this really is, since nearly every player-implemented twist does an incredible job, while the producer implemented twists suck hard. Want to know how bad the producer twists suck? Put it this way: THEY’RE THE SAME AS LAST SEASON! Yep, we’ve got two returning players, Redemption Island still in effect, merge at 12 after the Redemption Island duel, someone comes back at the final five, end of story. Now, if you thought these didn’t work last time, if you think people thought they were a bad idea at the time, imagine how bad they seemed done back to back. This season therefore got off to a bad start in the twist department, since it seemed like a lame rehash of “Survivor Redemption Island”, a season that, to put it mildly, did not go over well with the audience. While Coach and Ozzy were probably ok choices to bring back, people didn’t need to see them, and Redemption Island still had the same problems as it had on its inaugural season. Literally, only two things were done differently. First, only two people were in duels post merge, rather than the three of “Survivor Redemption Island”. Technically an improvement, but that’s like saying a shit sandwich is made slightly better with the addition of ketchup. You’re correct, but you’re still eating a shit sandwich. The other change was that, rather than combine reward and immunity challenges post-merge, the winner of Redemption Island Duels (or occasionally the immunity challenge) chose a member (or members) of the merged tribe to get reward. This is actually not a bad concept, adding a new layer of politics to the game, and, in the case of the duel winner dispensing reward, kept the people on Redemption Island more involved in the game. Sadly, nothing much ever came of this use of politics, and it hasn’t been tried again. A good idea, but one lacking in execution. Also, while a good idea, Redemption Island was not needed to execute it, so suffice to say, the negatives of reusing twists, and particularly THESE twists, greatly outweigh the positives. Oh, and if you thought the Redemption Island twist was stacked in favor of Boston Rob (“Survivor Marquesas”) it was not nearly as bad as being in favor of Ozzy. After all, which contestant holds the record for most individual immunity wins? Ozzy.

But that’s only one half of the coin. We got some good contestant twists, but they were a while coming. Actually, most of the vote-offs were predictable, and the only real surprise, such as it was, was the revelation of Brandon Hantz’ true identity to his tribe, something the audience had known about since before the season, and was so over-the-top that it was hard to take seriously. As you can tell, this was not a season with an auspicious start. Our first real twist comes in episode 5, when Jim and Cochran conspire to overthrow Ozzy, and do so. This is where Jim shines as a strategist, and Cochran starts to come out of his shell. We also get some really good, subtle gameplay from Whitney here. A pretty standard twist in the game, but still a good one.

In episode 7, things really start to get crazy. Basically, the first woman voted out of Upolu, Christine Shields-Markoski, had been winning Redemption duel after Redemption duel (inadvertently showing how broken the Redemption Island twist often is: winner of the first duel usually has a streak of wins), which made Savaii scared. They feared she would go back to Upolu if she won one more challenge, and so they hatched one of the craziest plans ever. They INTENTIONALLY voted Ozzy out at this juncture, after he hands his hidden immunity idol to Cochran to ensure it stays in the game, so he can beat Christine. Let me state here and now that this is a STUPID plan! Sure, it worked out perfectly, and so goes down as brilliant, but imagine, just for a moment, if the winner of the duel HADN’T gotten to go back into the game. Savaii would have been SCREWED! I like Cochran, but he’s no good in challenges (this season) versus Ozzy, the challenge beast. Not to mention that if you DO merge, you’ve offended the guy with the hidden immunity idol, and the most likely swing vote, by berating him for his challenge performance. Not a good position. All this on top of the plan being pointless. Anyone who could listen to and understand English, and read body language, could tell that Christine was NOT happy with Upolu, even going so far as to call Coach “Benjamin” just to piss him off. CLEARLY she would have been on your side. Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy Cochran stayed in the game, but this plan could easily have backfired, and it’s pretty much a miracle that it didn’t. While a stupid plan, I will admit that it’s fun to watch the stupid chaos ensue in hindsight. A highlight of the season, but nothing compared to what would happen next.

Episode 8. After a double immunity challenge in which Ozzy and Dawn both won immunity, and with a hidden immunity idol in play, Savaii seemed set to dominate after an even merge between the tribes. Cochran was to play the role of the swing vote to find out what Upolu was up to. Except that he was ACTUALLY a swing vote, and turned on his aggressors. Yes. The biggest moment of South Pacific is Cochran betraying his tribe on a re-vote and getting rid of Keith, after planting false information that Upolu was targeting Whitney. And it is glorious. This is also where the Cochran hate came from, as this was seen as a stupid and cowardly move, done primarily to avoid drawing rocks. I maintain that this was the smartest move Cochran could have made at the time, given the information he was getting from his tribe. Generally, one should not trust the people who were just saying earlier that you should have been voted out. I see waiting for the re-vote to flip not as an avoiding of the purple rock, but a misguided attempt to make the betrayal sting less. It didn’t work, obviously, either for the tribe or for the audience, but an attempt nonetheless. As I said, when it came out how badly Cochran was bullied, he was eased up on, but Jim’s repeating of the word “coward” and Whitney’s “You disgust me.” speeches really took their toll. Still, whether you agree with Cochran’s move or not , it set the tone for the rest of the season. Coach’s alliance was not able to run the table for the rest of the game. There was a surprise double Tribal Council in there, but for the most part the season from there on was predictable.

Well, mostly predictable. There were enough crazy people in the game for random things to happen. The big game-changer was Brandon giving immunity to Albert Destrade, a contestant of absolutely no note, and getting voted out for it. It’s the crowning moment of stupid for Brandon, and while we’d seen this sort of stupidity from Erik Reichenbach (“Survivor Micronesia”) before, and it lost some impact, it was still kind of funny, and a fitting end to Brandon.

Oh, and Ozzy, there was the monkey wrench of Ozzy.

Yes, Redemption Island did its job this time, keeping Ozzy in the game long enough to come back twice (making him the only person voted out three times in one season), and give us a possible foil to Upolu’s plans. After all, if Ozzy makes it to the end, he wins, no question. Quite a bit of drama for the end there. Drama only topped by Ozzy making the final immunity challenge, only to lose on the puzzle to the lovely Sophie, thus explaining part of why she’s beloved. Again, while I’m not a big Ozzy fan, it was nice to see this possibility play out, but not to the obvious conclusion of Ozzy winning.

Not sure if this should count as a twist, but I love the moment, on the aforementioned “house of cards” challenge, where Sophie screws up, and then demands that Albert come over and help her win to beat Ozzy. Didn’t come to fruition, but a fun idea, and a great bit of humor for the final episode.

I’ll talk more about this in a minute, but also a twist is that, although this season played out much like “Survivor Redemption Island”, with a Pagonging by an unsinkable alliance led by a returnee, it did not conclude with a returnee win. Sophie won. She was the best player of the final three, I’d argue. Good twist.

While maybe not jam-packed with contestant twists, South Pacific had a lot more hits than misses in that department. Most contestant twists were good game-changers, and even those that weren’t as good were usually fun to watch. Long dry spells, and predictable Pagonging, and the reusing of twists no one wanted to see again really drag this season’s twists down, though. The degree of goodness of the contestant twists keeps this one above average in the twist department, but just barely.

Score: 6 out of 10.

OVERALL

In terms of theme, you couldn’t be more screwed than being named “South Pacific”. I’ve talked about the problem “Survivor” has with seasons with a theme of “Generic South Pacific Island”, but when your season is actually NAMED “Survivor South Pacific”, you’ve got problems. As if this wasn’t bad enough, the reusing of twists hurt the season in terms of theme as well. As bad an idea as it was to bring back Boston Rob and Russell, you could at least argue that they were connected in some way, tied into the “redemption” idea of Redemption Island. What unified Coach and Ozzy? Nothing. Add that onto the fact that the blatant twist reuse made it seem like the show was out of ideas, and you’ve got a season that’s seeded for failure. And yet it didn’t fail. True, it’s not a beloved season, but it had some good characters and moments that stand out. Maybe not as much as other seasons, and I’d never say this is “Survivor” at it’s best, but on it’s own? Pretty good season. Low end of average I’d say.

So, what are the bad points, apart from the inauspicious start? Well, first off, over time this season did develop a theme. It was a theme about the “morality” of the game, and how to play within those morals. This is not a good theme. It’s preachy and annoying. No one liked it. Having no theme would have been better than this. Additionally while this season had a lot of stand-out characters, it also had a lot of duds, and that can really drag. Remember Rick Nelson? Of course you don’t, he’s almost as forgettable as “Purple Kelly” (“Survivor Nicaragua”), and he was the “Fan Favorite” voted on again! Yeah, no wonder they stopped doing that after Rick. Now, you might say that the number of good characters who made it far is a good thing, since everybody who was memorable made the merge at least. The problem is that by the time you get to the final six, apart from Ozzy, who’s on Redemption Island at this point, the only people who are memorable are Coach, Sophie, and Brandon. This seems fine until you consider that the only LIKEABLE person of these people is Sophie. Not a very auspicious final few. Thank goodness Ozzy was there to give people someone to root for.

Which brings us to possibly the largest weight on the season after the reused twists: the Pagonging. We really needed an unpredictable season, and Cochran’s move was one in the right direction, but the boot order was predetermined after that move. Upolu was the tribe that had one rock solid alliance that would not budge, while Savaii was a lot more willing to cannibalize it’s ranks, thus making for a more interesting end of the season. But Upolu dominated, and so the rest of the season became relatively predictable, especially in hindsight.

With that said, it’s worth noting that this season did a good job of keeping us guessing with the Pagonging. If you’re going to have a Pagonging, play up how likely it is for a flip to happen. And there was talk of flipping, and there was Ozzy the monkey wrench, so while the season ended up a boring Pagonging with a highly unlikeable final 6, it did the best with what it had.

That’s really the best way to sum up South Pacific as a season. It had a lot working against it. Reused twists. An unlikeable ending group. A boring Pagonging. Yet it took those things, used good marketing techniques, mixed in some good characters and contestant twists, and made a season that was perfectly ok. With a few more good characters and less reused twists, this could have been a great season. As it stands, it’s definitely in the lower end of “Survivor”, but I say it’s still a pretty good season.

Score: 22 out of 40.

ABSTRACT

South Pacific is not one of your great seasons, but it does a pretty good job. You’ve got some stand-out moments and people to root for. It is one of your more predictable seasons, but it does a good job covering that up. While not essential to understanding “Survivor” history, I still recommend watching it a couple of times. It’s entertaining enough for the first watch, and there’s some subtle pleasures upon rewatch. If you’ve got the time, it’s definitely worth checking out.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Caramoan” Cast Assessment

Salutations, my fellow suckers for “Survivor”.  Welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to!  Well, seeing as I’ve been gone for several weeks, and the title of this blog is not “’Survivor’ Retrospectives: Guatemala”, you might conclude that the cast of “Survivor Caramoan” has been announced.  You would be correct.  Very astute.  Give yourself a cookie.

Now, there’s been a lot of controversy surrounding the twist for this season, given that it’s reused, as well as the picks for “favorites”.  Now, I’ll save my overall thoughts for the end of my blog, but I want to quickly address two issues that are going to come up in regards to my organization of this blog.  Normally, I just list off names of castaways, and include tribe along with the information about them in parenthesis.  However, since this season is so dependent of its twist, I will be organizing within tribe, and thereby not include it in personal information.  The other thing to note is that I will refer to this season as “Survivor Caramoan” and not “Survivor Caramoan: Fans vs. Favorites”, partly because I’ve set the precedent for not including subtitles anyway, and partly to differentiate it from “Survivor Micronesia”, the FIRST Fans vs. Favorites season.  Now, on to the cast analysis, starting with…

THE FANS (Gota Tribe):

Alexandra “Allie” Pohevitz (25, Bartender, Oceanside, NY): While I said that I would discuss the season overall later, for the purposes of writing about Allie, I will say that I find the women this season to be lackluster, particularly on the “Fans” side. This is partly due to at least 3 of the women on the fans side being so similar that I have a hard time differentiating them.  Allie is one of these, though I’m going to start off on a happier note with her, as I think she has a better chance than her other look-alikes of making it far into the game.  There’s just something about her that isn’t QUITE all talk when she brags about her social skills.  Also, she seemed more soft-spoken than a lot of the women on this season, which to me says she’ll fly under the radar.  While I could see her going early, I get the feeling she’ll sneak her way into the merge at least.  I doubt she’ll win, just due to a lack of confidence that she’ll be able to make the necessary moves, but I also wouldn’t call her cannon fodder.

Edward “Eddie” Fox (23, Fireman/EMT, East Brunswick, NJ): It seems my current goal is to get the generic people out of the way early, as Eddie helps fill this season’s quotient of “Generic, good–looking strong guy”.  He talks a big game, I don’t buy it.  I sort of look at him like I looked at Pete of “Survivor Philippines”.  He thinks he’s smarter than he is, and he talks a big game that I doubt he can back up.  Still, he’s not the MOST unlikeable schmoozer on the “Fans” side (we’ll get to him later), and he does seem to be physically strong, so I expect him to stick around until the merge for his strength, and then be picked off by more competent players.  Also, one fan coincidence I notice, Fans vs. Favorites seasons must have a thing about featuring firefighters, as “Survivor Micronesia” gave us the ever brash Joel Anderson.

Hope Driskill (23, Pre-Law Student, Jefferson City, MO): Fodder, meet cannon.  Hope fills the second of our 3 “look-alike” slots for the women on the “Fans” side, but unlike Allie, I have absolutely NO confidence in her.  She’s another pageant winner, which usually doesn’t bode well, and just seems flighty and unprepared to me.  I found zilch to recommend her, and if she’s the first off on the fan side (I suspect a favorite will be the TRUE first off), I will not be surprised in the slightest.

Julia Landauer (21, Racecar Driver, Stanford, CA): What’s this?  A woman on the “Fans” side who isn’t completely bland and boring?  Unheard of!  In case it wasn’t obvious, I like Julia a lot.  Aside from the unique occupation, she has a toughness and social grace that I don’t see in a lot of the women this time around.  I think she’s adaptable enough to bond with the girls or the guys, and I think she’s young enough to not be seen as a threat.  She’s strong enough to be useful, but not so much as to be threatening.  All in all, she seems like a good, strong woman with a decent head on her shoulders, and while I doubt she’d be voted for to win (just due to her age) I expect her to at least make the merge, and wouldn’t be overly shocked to see her in the finals.  I do concede that she might be voted out for being different from the prototypical female, I think she can overcome this without too much difficulty.

Laura Alexander (23, Administrative Officer, Washington, D.C.): Just when you thought we were getting into uniqueness, we get our third look-alike.  While she does fall in the middle of the 3 for me, I lump her in more with Hope than Allie.  I suspect the environment will overwhelm her, and her only “skill” she professed is being able to adapt to several types of people, due to working in Washington D.C.  Although this is a more legit claim than SOME castaways make, being on an island is very different from being in Washington D.C., and I just don’t see Laura adapting that quickly.  I highly doubt she’ll be the VERY first one gone from the “Fans” side, but I’d still expect her to be gone before the merge.

Matt Bischoff (38, BMX Bike Sales, Cincinnati, OH): I can only figure that after failing to become governor of Indiana, Rupert Boneham (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) fell into a depression, changed his name, got some tattoos, and moved to Ohio, as Matt is very clearly a Rupert clone.  Same beard, same play style, even their voices are somewhat similar.  Although I find Matt to be very likeable, and I think fans will gravitate toward him, being compared to Rupert just about kills any chance he has of winning this game.  While I adore Rupert, and think that he’s better strategically than people give him credit for, I will admit, as will most other fans, that he’s not the brightest bulb on the Hanukkah tree.  Still, Rupert tends to last fairly late into the game, and if Matt can emulate his likeableness and usefulness, then I’d look for him to make the mid merge at least.  If not, he’ll be an early boot for being so blatantly different, but somehow, I doubt that will happen.

Michael Snow (44, Event Planner, New York, NY): You know, it’s doing bios like these that really make me despise myself.  I like this guy a lot.  He’s a huge fan of theatre, which I identify with.  But I have sworn to give my honest assessment of his chances in the game, and I have to say, he’s toast.  Again, certainly not first vote off material, but definitely gone before the merge.  To be frank, he’s just too different.  I know I’ve said that some people on the “Fans” side are different as well, and can overcome said differences, but Michael is just TOO different to have any chance.  Here’s the problem: This season’s “Fans” tribe is very physical, very based in strength.  Strong people tend to identify with other strong people, and thus keep them around longer.  Michael is not that strong a person, by his own admission.  It might be ok if he wasn’t the only one on his tribe, but he is.  That makes him an outsider, an easy person to pick out from the crowd and say “Let’s get him out”.  Even this might be overcomable, but he himself admits that he can get neurotic at times.  Speaking as a theatre person myself, this is not abnormal, but it does get grating, and just makes him too hard to live with.  Bottom line, I like the guy, but I don’t expect him to stick around very long.

Reynold Toepfer (30, Real Estate Sales, San Francisco, CA): SCHMOOOOOOZE!  Congratulations Reynold, your job in this game is to extend Eddie’s time in the game by making him look nice by comparison.  Seriously, he and Eddie would be clones but for the fact that Reynold exudes more schmooze per square inch than just about any contestant I’ve seen.  He’s full of himself, thinks he’s got it in the bag, and in my opinion has no idea how to behave socially.  While he is strong, and might be kept around for that, I wouldn’t look to this guy to make the merge, by any means.

Shamar Thomas (27, Iraq War Veteran, Brooklyn, NY): In contrast to Reynold, here we have someone who is GENUINELY charming.  In fact, he’s so charming that he’s actually my male pick to win the whole game. I was hesitant at first, for a few reasons.  He seemed like a bombastic personality to me, which I thought would make people more likely to vote him out, and he’s military, which, while it might make for a nice guy, and also seeds for better ability to adapt to the tough situations “Survivor” produces, also tends to lead to far too much loyalty in one’s alies, which has been the downfall of many a castaway.  While I don’t deny that Shamar does in fact have a bombastic personality, in watching a few interviews with him, I was struck by how charming he was, to the point where I couldn’t help but like him.  Inherent likeability is a good quality in a castaway.  It’s how Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”) managed to stick around so long in her first outing.  It also goes leaps and bounds towards counteracting his bombasticness, but even if it can’t be fully overcome the bombasticness, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, as it makes you seem less of a threat. Also, during interviews he talked about a willingness to play a Russell Hantz-ian (“Survivor Samoa”) game, which, while I do not approve of this style of gameplay, does lead me to believe that he’ll be a lot better strategically than a lot of military vets that are on this show.  For a good combination of brains, brawn, and likeability, I could easily see Shamar winning.  Plus, there’s something about a guy who stands up to NYPD officers harassing “Occupy Wall Street” protesters that just makes me like the guy.

Sherri Biethman (41, Fast Food Franchisee, Boise, ID): Completing the group of castaways known as “People whose last names I will have a horrible time spelling”, we have Sherri, who is so dead on arrival it is not even funny.  Despite being one of the older castaways this time around, she also exudes the most of the modern world to me, the most entitlement.  She’s very obviously tanned, and has equally obviously had several plastic surgeries.  She seems the type to me who will crumble under the poor conditions out on the island.  Also, I get the feeling she’s entitled somewhat, which will grate on her fellow tribemates.  What are her positives?  None whatsoever.  Expect her out before the merge, easy.

Well, with that over with, we now move on to…

THE FAVORITES (Bikal Tribe)

Before I begin, let me say that analyzing the favorites will be a bit different for me.  True, I’ve analyzed returnees before, but never a whole tribe of them.  This puts me in a rather unique position, at least for this blog.  While in my cast assessment I may criticize some people’s chances in the game, I try to refrain from saying that casting made a bad choice, as I don’t know who else was considered, and therefore that person may have been the best choice of the lot.  With a tribe of returnees, however, I DO know what other options CBS had, and thus WILL say that some choices are bad, and will back them up with a short section on who I would have cast in their stead. For this section, I will not uphold most of the limits CBS set on itself for this season.  Winners, and people from before “Survivor Micronesia” are all fair game, in my book.  However, I will uphold the “No players we’ve already seen before” limit, because I agree that it’s time to start cultivating a new batch of All-Stars.  Also, I will try to match the personality of my replacement choices as closely as possible to the people they’re replacing, as otherwise the season would be nothing but hardcore strategists, which, while I would find enjoyable, does not lead to much variety.

My final note on handling returnees is that I’ll be analyzing them in the chronological order to which they appeared, meaning we start with…

Erik Reichenbach (27, Comic Book Artist, Santa Clara, CA.  5^th place, “Survivor Micronesia”): Ah, yes the Ice Cream Scooper from Hell, MI.  The man I labeled “Dumbest Survivor Ever”, but who has since lost that title (the Actual “Dumbest Survivor Ever”, Colton Cumbie [“Survivor One World”] is thankfully not appearing this season) is back, and to tell you the truth, I couldn’t be happier.  Contractually obligated to only appear on seasons with the “Fans vs. Favorites” subtitle or not, Erik is a riot to me, in that yes, he makes dumb moves, but he’s just so charming in doing it that he’s a laugh riot.  Plus, you gotta love the guy who once said “That’s Jeff Probst!  He’s just standing there!”.  I do suspect he’s learned something from his previous experience, and it can only work to his advantage, in my opinion.  A problem for returning castaways is that their reputation precedes them, and is hard to throw away.  For Erik, being perceived as a moron can only help, as people will underestimate him, and thus take him farther than they should.  His being physically proficient will help as well, giving them more of a reason to keep him around.  I don’t think he can win, just due to perceptions about him (no one wants to award a million dollars to a perceived moron), but I’d look for him to stay until at least mid-merge, and am looking forward to every minute of it.

Corrine Kaplan (33, Clinical Consultant, Los Angeles, CA.  7^th place, “Survivor Gabon”): Bitch.  Sorry, I’m obligated to make that the first thing I say about Corrine, or else she’ll come to my apartment and kick my ass.  You see, like many female villains, Corrine RELISHES her title, and even prefers to be known by it.  This might come across as a minus, as no one wants to hang around with a self-described bitch, but it can also get one very far, as people want to take them to the end as jury cannon fodder.  What people seem to forget about Corrine, though, is that beneath the bitchiness there’s a more than decent strategist who could take you out very easily.  These factors combine to tell me that Corrine has a good long time ahead of her this season, possible even making the finals.  Again, I don’t think she can win because of her reputation, but she probably won’t leave until the late merge at the earliest.  I’ll admit that I wasn’t a huge fan of her in “Survivor Gabon”, but that was partly due to me liking a LOT of the players of “Survivor Gabon” (Ken Hoang being my favorite).  Still, I considered replacing her with Alicia Rosa (“Survivor One World”), but I ultimately decided that Corrine was a better representative of the “Holy Order of Sue Hawk-abies” anyway.

Brenda Lowe (34, Paddleboard Co. Owner, Miami, FL.  10^th place, “Survivor Nicaragua”): Ah, here we see something that is going to be very rare on this season: an actual strategist.  Yes, for all that people say that “Survivor Nicaragua” was the worst season of “Survivor”, I think they give it a hard time (though I still say it was a bad season), and if one person from it deserved to come back, it was Brenda.  She was running the game, until she got cocky.  Still, she made for a lot of interesting drama, and save for an unwillingness to scramble, she was pretty damn good at it too.  I think she’s learned now that scrambling is ok, and probably won’t make the same mistake twice.  Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s going to do her much good.  As I’ve made clear, reputation precedes returnees on seasons such as this, and can lead to an unfortunate expulsion of good players.  This is the case with Brenda, as while I think she’s fit enough to survive a little bit, I don’t think this cast will let a hardcore strategist stick around too long, lest they get a foothold, and in my opinion, Brenda will be ejected a vote or two before the merge.  Would I replace her?  Absolutely not!  Doesn’t change her chances in the game, though.

Francesca Hogi (38, Attorney, Brooklyn, NY.  20^th place, “Survivor Redemption Island): Oh boy, here we go.  Time to get the ranting over and done with.  Now, while this blog is hardly unbiased (my knee-jerk OPINION, after all), I do like to believe that am fair, at least to some degree.  I try to judge all seasons equally, regardless of outside factors, and strive to believe that any season, however bad, has at least one redeeming quality.  That being said, I have to ask, WHY IS ANYBODY BACK FROM “SURVIVOR REDEMPTION ISLAND”?  My God, this is easily one of the worst seasons of all time, and DEFINITELY the worst out of all the post-“Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” seasons.  Yes people, in my opinion “Survivor Nicaragua” and “Survivor One World” were BOTH better than this stinker.  Now, the problem is not that “Survivor Redemption Island” gave us no memorable characters, far from it.  The problem is that “Survivor Redemption Island” ONLY gave us “Boston Rob” Mariano (“Survivor Marquesas”), whom I’ve seen enough of to last us a dozen lifetimes.  The cast, other than Boston Rob, was lackluster, to put it mildly.  They exhibited no strategy, and simply rolled over to LET Boston Rob walk to the million.  Now, you could argue that “Survivor One World” had the exact same problem, to which I reply that while this is true, and “Survivor One World” is in my opinion the second worst of the previous 5 season, it at least showcased the strategic prowess of someone new, as opposed to someone we’ve seen THREE TIMES BEFORE!  Seriously, I hate myself for saying it, but NO ONE should ever come back from “Survivor Redemption Island”.

Oh, right, I suppose I have to talk about Francesca now, don’t I?  Well, this is going to sound hypocritical because of a post I made during “Survivor One World”, but I don’t like that Francesca’s back.  Don’t get me wrong, I like her a lot, and I think she has untapped potential (at least physically), but I don’t think she has business being on this particular season.  The problem is that, like it or not, experience helps, and Francesca is the ONLY castaway here who was booted so early.  It puts her at a distinct disadvantage, just because the other players have more experience with the game.  I want her brought back, yes, but on a season filled with OTHER first boots, not a season filled with experienced players!  It just doesn’t seem fair to me, and I think it’s going to lead to an early boot for poor Francesca.  Not the first boot this time, but certainly well before the merge, and all due to lack of experience.  So, who would I put in to level the playing field?

Lydia Morales (“Survivor Guatemala”) I’ve said before and I’ll say again that “Survivor Guatemala” gets a lot of undue hate from the fanbase.  Like Francesca, Lydia is an underappreciated castaway, whose value to the tribe is unknown (let’s face it, Francesca is really an unknown quantity in this game).  Unlike Francesca, however, Lydia is entertaining and experienced, making for a fairer game, as well as representing an underrepresented season.

Andrea Boehlke (23, Entertainment Host and Writer, New York, NY.  5^th place, “Survivor Redemption Island”) Well, add another one to the group of “People Whose Last Names I Will Have Trouble Spelling”.  While I admit that Andrea is the one I hate the least out of the “Survivor Redemption Island” group, that’s really not saying much.  She did TALK about going against Boston Rob, but she never pulled the trigger.  That, I think, will be her downfall, because I don’t think she knows when and how to make big moves, and for all her talk, is just a follower.  Also, she’s not that strong, and I predict she’ll be gone very early on.  One other problem I have with her is that she’s not really a good castaway in terms of entertainment.  Put it this way: I consider myself pretty god at remembering castaways names and events.  Even dear Francesca, who was a first boot, I remembered.  When I first heard that Andrea was one of the “Favorites”, my thought was “Who?”  That’s a very bad sign if even I can’t remember you, and as such I think she should be replaced with…

Kim Spradlin (“Survivor One World”) Aside from being one of the few representatives of “Survivor One World” that would not trigger the gag reflexes of “Survivor” fans, Kim is exactly what they’re looking for in Andrea, I think: A hot, smart strategist.  The difference here is that Kim actually has credible proof that she is these things, is somewhat entertaining, and I ACTUALLY REMEMBER WHO SHE IS!  People might argue that “Fans vs. Favorites” seasons have a tradition of not bringing back winners, but I would point out that both Tom Westman (“Survivor Palau”), and Sandra Diaz-Twine (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) were invited back to the original “Fans vs. Favorites”, and so that argument is invalid.

Phillip “Special Agent?” Sheppard (54, Chief Executive Officer of Enter Software Sales, Santa Monica, CA.  Runner-Up, “Survivor Redemption Island”): Alright, I’m going to try to be fair to “Survivor Redemption Island”, and admit that yes, maybe, Francesca and Andrea deserve to come back.  I cannot, however, extend the same doubt to the one who is, by far, the most ANNOYING castaway I’ve ever seen.  Who in their right mind would want Phillip back?  I said “right mind”, Probst doesn’t count.  I like Probst as much as the next guy, but a lot of the decisions he makes are just awful, and his opinion on Phillip is just astoundingly bad.  The man isn’t funny, isn’t strategic, isn’t endearing, in short, Phillip Sheppard is not entertaining in any way!  There are only TWO good things about his presence here.  One is that they at least brought Francesca back, as the ONLY thing Phillip did in his ENTIRE time on the island, that was MILDLY entertaining was his physical inability to correctly pronounce “Francesca”.  The other is that we will, at least, get the pleasure of seeing Phillip get voted off first.  There is NO WAY anyone other than Phillip is going first.  I just can’t see this group putting up with him for any prolonged period of time.  Phillip will go first and it will be sweet.  Some would argue that his physical fitness, and his being jury cannon fodder might keep him around, but I would argue that there are others on the “Favorites” tribe who fill that role, and guess what?  THEY DON”T CAUSE PEOPLE TO WANT TO RIP THEIR EARS OFF SO THEY DON’T HAVE TO LISTED TO MORE OF “GREAT-GRANDPA JESSUM” (by the way, Phillip STILL has that damn feather, God help us…).  Also, Phillip is not a good person to keep in your alliance.  If you didn’t notice, he’s not good at keeping secrets, so yeah, Phillip will go first, and it will be sweet.  However, I think my replacement for him might not go first.

Judd Sergeant (“Survivor Guatemala”) So, you want someone on the island who is abrasive and loud.  Fine, you can have someone on the island who is abrasive and loud.  Just make it Judd, who at least balanced things with a little strategy and humor, and not PURE, UNADULTERATED INSANITY!

Dawn Meehan (42, English Professor, South Jordan, UT.  9^th place, “Survivor South Pacific”): There is probably no one in this cast who is, to me, the perfect antithesis to Phillip than Dawn, because I’m ECSTATIC that she’s back!  I mention during my blog of “Survivor Philippines” that Dawn is the namer of “Dawn Meehan Syndrome”, in which a decent strategic player is physically marred from doing any good game play by their emotions.  Well, as we saw in “Survivor Philippines”, a cure has been found, and I’d bet anything that Dawn has taken a bit dose of it.  While most of the women on this season leave me cold, I really like Dawn. She’s smart, she’s charming, and now that she’s got her emotions in check, and knows what she’s in for, I’d say she’s a force to be reckoned with this season.  In fact, I’d even go so far as to say that she’s my female pick to win it all.  I think she’ll come in underestimated, and then school all the other, less strategic players.  Would I change her out?  Absolutely not! I liked her on “Survivor South Pacific”, and I just adore her now!

John Cochran (25, Harvard Law Student, Washington, D.C.  7^th place, “Survivor South Pacific”): Wow, a lot of people from D.C. on this season.  Well, Cochran was my personal favorite on “Survivor South Pacific”, and he remains my personal favorite on this season.  Not to say I think he’ll win, but I like him and root for him.  Now that I think he knows what he’s in for, he’ll do much better, and make a few more moves than in last game, because I will admit, I thought he’d be more of a Rob Cesternino (“Survivor The Amazon”) at first glance back in “Survivor South Pacific”, and yet he still, I think, is decent strategically.  Sure, hindsight is 20/20, and obviously his flip availed him nothing, but I maintain, to this day, that it was a smart move at the time.  It seems, according to the internet, that I am in a minority on this, however, as most people (those who post comments on forums, anyway) seem to dislike Cochran.  I, however, believe these people are ignoring a few key facts, and it is in this mind (and due to my frustration over said comments) that I now present:

A REBUTTAL TO THE CRITICISMS OF JOHN COCHRAN!

To sum up the criticisms of Cochran in one sentence, people get the idea that he is a “Wimpy fame-whore who thinks he’s smart, but is really a strategic dunce.”  Starting with the “wimpy” claim; this can be taken two ways.  The first is “wimpy” as in “bad in physical challenges”.  Now, I do not deny that Cochran is bad at physical challenges.  Cochran himself does not deny that he is bad at physical challenges.  This does NOT make him a bad character.  This may make him a character that you dislike, which I am willing to respect. Different strokes for different folks, and while I prefer strategists, there may be some who prefer physical threats.  However, your preference does not make him an inherently bad character who should never be brought back, therefore comments degrading Cochran in this vein are unjustified.  The other definition of “wimpy” is “coward who avoided the purple rock”, in the vein of Jim Rice (also “Survivor South Pacific”).  This goes along with the implied criticism of the rest of my summary sentence: that Cochran’s move was terrible, and he did it for screen time.  Here, I must disrespectfully disagree.  Again, while I do not deny that in hindsight Cochran’s move availed him nothing, I believe it was the best move he could have made at the time.  You see, people who believe his move was motivated by fame forget that his tribe had SAID HE SHOULD HAVE GONE THE DAY BEFORE THE MERGE!  CAN YOU REALLY TRUST ALLIES LIKE THAT?  “But he lost them the challenge!” you say.  Well yes, yes he did, but your allies should stick with you, challenge or no challenge.  “But that was all pre-merge!” you say.  If you go back and watch the episode where Cochran flips, you’ll notice Jim, as supposed ALLY of Cochran mind you, interrogating everyone before tribal council that they’re not going to flip against Savaii.  He asks everyone for an assurance once… EXCEPT FOR COCHRAN, WHOM HE ASKS REPEATEDLY! Given this treatment, it’s no wonder Cochran flipped.  The point I’m getting at here is that, post-merge, loyalty in allies is everything, and based upon the evidence, Savaii wouldn’t have taken Cochran anywhere NEAR the finals.  He was quite clearly at the bottom of the pecking order.  So, Cochran’s choices were go with Upolu, where it was PROBABLE that he wouldn’t be taken to the end, or stick with Savaii, where it was ALMOST A GUARANTEE that he wouldn’t be taken to the end.  It had nothing to do with cowardice, it was the best move Cochran could have made at the time.  Also, as a final rebuttal to the “fame-whore” accusation, well of COURSE he’s a fame-whore.  By going on this show, and thereby putting yourself on TV, EVERY CASTAWAY is a fame-whore.  You don’t go on this show if you’re not a fame-whore.  Quit chastising Cochran when all the others are just as bad.

Well, for all my ranting defense of him, and my liking of him, I don’t think Cochran stands much of a chance this season.  Though his gameplay may have improved (even I will consent that he’s not a strategic genius), as I’ve said many times before, reputation precedes you in seasons such as these, and Cochran’s reputation, deserved or not, is a bad one.  As such, unless Dawn takes him under her wing out of old season loyalty, I wouldn’t expect him to last long, for fear that he would flip.  I wouldn’t replace him, by any means, but he’s still gone before the merge, if I’m correct.

Brandon Hantz (21, Chemical Disposal, Katy, TX.  5^th place, “Survivor South Pacific”): You know, I liked “Survivor South Pacific” as a whole.  It wasn’t a GREAT season, but it was pretty decent, and you got a lot of interesting, enjoyable characters out of it.  Brandon Hantz was not one of those characters.  While I’ve come to like him better after the show(I feel he’s put-upon by his family, and is finally getting his head screwed on straight), I don’t think he’s changed his religious zealotry (the thing that made him unbearable in my eyes), whatever he says.  I found him annoying, unpleasant, and unnecessary to the season, though at least they’ve taken away the annoying detail of listing his occupation as “Russell Hantz’ Nephew”.  Unlike Phillip, who you may have guessed I also found to be annoying, I unfortunately think Brandon will stick around for a while.  The trouble is, Brandon is loyal to a fault, and as I mentioned in my Cochran rant, loyalty is very valuable on “Survivor”.  As such, I’m sure someone will keep him around for a good long while, probably getting rid of him mid to late merge.  I’d like to get rid of him sooner, however, and replace him with…

Shane Powers (“Survivor Exile Island”): You want skinny, loyal, and neurotic?  Here, take skinny and neurotic (the “loyal” thing is debatable on Shane’s part, although to be fair he was one of the most gung-ho about holding the Casaya alliance together).  Aside from the fact that they’ve been trying to bring Shane back for several seasons, Shane was actually entertaining, and could come up with a strategic gem every now and again.  That, in my book, makes him infinitely preferable to Brandon Hantz.

Malcolm Freeberg (25, Bartender, Hermosa Beach, CA.  4^th place, “Survivor Philippines”): While I have to admit that I’m surprised that more people aren’t back from “Survivor Philippines” given how good it was, I do think Malcolm’s a good choice. He was good physically, strategically, and he was pretty humorous to boot.  Furthermore, unlike the rest of the returnees, he has no reputation (given that this season and “Survivor Philippines” were shot back-to-back), which makes him better able to blend into the shadows of the cast, and work his magic without suspicion.  The only reason I make Malcolm isn’t my male pick to win it all is that after Russell Hantz’ performance on ”Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, I don’t think people are going to let an unknown quantity hang around for too much longer post merge.  Even so, due to his physicality, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t at least make the merge.  He’ll go pretty early once that phase hits, but I doubt he’s much of a target before then.  I wouldn’t trade him for anyone.  No way.

Well, so that’s my thoughts on the cast, but the season itself has been, if anything, more controversial  The problem a lot of people have is how they’re so blatantly recycling a previous, good twist in an attempt to get ratings.  I have to admit, while I’m not as adamant in my dislike of the twist, and will still watch the show, I do dislike just how much of a carbon copy of “Survivor Micronesia” this is.  They’ve even got the same colors, with the “Fans” still in orange and the “Favorites” still in purple.  Bet you anything the merge is green.  This unfortunately makes the season seem like it will be predictable, playing out the same way as “Survivor Micronesia” which does not make for an interesting watch.  Another complaint people have is that these are not really “Favorites” so much as people Probst likes.  While I think people are overreacting again, I do not deny that, which the exceptions of Erik and Malcolm, none of these people can really be called “Favorites”, I think in part due to the fact that returning castaways make it hard for new people to shine, as they get all the screentime.  My point is that these people may be good “Favorites” material, but we couldn’t really see it on their original seasons.

Unlike “Survivor Philippines”, where the women were really good and the men lackluster, by and large, this season we have the opposite, with a lot of really good men and lackluster women, particularly on the “Favorites” side (Francesca, Andrea?  Really?)  Probst chalks this up to “Survivor” just having more interesting men than women, others say the producers are sexist.  I fall somewhere in the middle, in that while I do think “Survivor” underutilizes some great women, it does seem to me that men more often have the qualities that make a good “Survivor” contestant, just genetically, due to men having more aggressive Type-A personalities.

One other small issue I have with the season is that “Survivor Micronesia” was so good.  I mean, I can see why producers want to recapture the magic.  After all, “Survivor Micronesia” remains my favorite season.  However, that’s just it: this new season has to live up to “Survivor Micronesia”, and however good Probst says it is, I don’t think it can be done.

However, I’d like to put in a positive note, and that’s to point out the one GOOD thing about this season: It has a different feel than “Survivor Micronesia”.  Going back to the complaint about this season’s cast not being “Favorites”, it’s true that the returnees of “Survivor Micronesia” were either famous or infamous, and almost all were known for good gameplay.  This season, however, is different.  These are the also-rans, the people who might have been good, but whether by luck or a simple mistake ended up losing.  These people have something to prove.  These are the All-Stars that could have been, the ones who have something to prove, the underdogs, and I just love the underdogs.  It does make the title of “Fans vs. Favorites” a bit misleading, though.  Perhaps a better title would have been “Survivor Caramoan: New Day”.  Hey, it wouldn’t be a more stupid title than “Survivor One World”.  A nice irony also is that, with a few exceptions, all the “Favorites” are actually superfans, and would be just as appropriate on the “Fans” side.

Well, while I don’t have too much confidence, I’ve been wrong before.  We’ll see how this season shapes up.  I’ll end this blog the way I ended the last one: It can’t be a TRUE “Fans vs. Favorites” season, because I’m not there on the “Fans” side.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.