The “Mom” archetype. One of the most talked about in “Survivor” canon. Yet its gender-flipped counterpart, the “Dad” archetype, very rarely gets play. Oh sure, we’ve had some “Dads” on “Survivor”. While not technically that archetype, I’d say Bob Crowley of “Survivor Gabon” gave off big “Dad” energy. The moment in which I most like Tyson was him playing with his daughter on “Winners at War”. And Jeremy Collins made his kids a central part of his strategy on “Survivor Cambodia”. But apart from Jeremy, and Rocksroy on “Survivor 42”, no one has really made the “Dad” archetype the center of their strategy. Tonight we perhaps see why, as our most prominent Dads of the season either screw up their own games because of their kids, or betray their kids, leading to their games getting screwed up.
Getting back from Tribal, one would expect there to be drama, and there is. Surprisingly, though, it is not from Geo seeming to be left out of the vote. Indeed, Geo informs us that he was fully aware Lindsay was going, but threw a vote on Cassidy since he was the person Lindsay was voting for him. It’s not explicitly said, but presumably Geo is worried about a Shot in the Dark coming back on him. Of course, the obvious counter-argument is that if Lindsay played her Shot in the Dark, she wouldn’t have a vote, but on the other hand, Geo could be worried about his name on a re-vote. Point being, I don’t fault his logic.
That said, his logic is based on the faulty premise that he is in with the majority, with Cassidy on the outs. Despite Cassidy voting with you last episode. Cassidy and Karla take time to mock Geo privately for this delusion, but I’m sure that won’t mean anything for the episode down the road.
Over at Dumbass Tribe, Jeanine and Elie are up to their old tricks again. They’ve searched what they believe to be every significant nook and cranny on the island. Except, you know, the giant, significant tree. After giving a description of how the tree should be edited, which the editors comply with a la Russell Swan on “Survivor Philippines” (arguably another contender for the central “Dad” archetype in their game), Jeanine gets to searching. In fairness to all the people on the Dumbass Tribe, I would say their Beware Advantage is the most well-hidden. Vesi had it easiest, with the advantage just lying out on a low branch, not even attempting to blend in. Coco’s was also technically in the open, but on a higher branch, and closer to the color of the tree in question. Dumbass’ was stuck down in a nook between two branches, and blended quite well. And, to add insult to injury, was covered in ants, which Jeanine had to bat off before running to Elie to open the advantage.
Jeanine barely hesitates in opening the advantage, given what she believes the tribe to be. Gabler is perceived as such an annoyance that Jeanine does not believe her vote will be necessary to oust him. Of course there is the little matter of his idol, but she and Elie are still drinking the “Gabler doesn’t think it works.” Kool-Aid. Finding out about the bead issue (and we actually get a close up of most of the beads this time, and they are the most cool-looking of the bag beads, save for Owen’s which is kind of “blah”), Jeanine and Elie decide they don’t want Owen to know what’s up. True, he’s nominally on their side, but there’s something about him they just don’t trust.
Cue Owen immediately walking up on the pair. The Irony Gods must be rolling on the floor.
No, Jeanine and Elie are in luck. Owen did not actually HEAR them say they don’t trust him, though they are forced to reveal the existence of Jeanine’s Beware Advantage, and how it works. Owen DOES contemplate simply refusing to give up his bead, but given that he’s playing both sides, he gives it up in the end. To his benefit, I would say. Making a stink about the bead think would tip one’s hand too much if you know why, and thus probably more trouble than it’s worth. An idol is powerful, true, but only if used right, and there’s no guarantee Jeanine will be able to do that.
Elie informs Sami of the situation. He has to give up his bead in order to maintain his bluff against the women, but is clearly happy that Jeanine may be without a vote. This seems all the more likely when Gabler, the one person who hasn’t been told about the rules for the Beware Advantage, buys Jeanine’s bracelet cover story, but is reluctant to part with that specific bead, saying he is saving it for his daughter. Ouch. Right in the family feels. How’s Jeanine going to overcome this one?
Pretty easily, apparently. With the mere offer of trading back the beads Gabler had previously bequeathed her, Gabler gives up the bead she most wants. If I’m Gabler’s daughter, I’m pissed right now. Me personally? I’m more pissed at the editors. There must have been some great social manipulation on the part of Jeanine if Gabler really had his heart set on that particular bead, unless the edit played it up. Thus, either the edit hyperbolized things to a degree even I can’t take, or we missed out on seeing some great gameplay from Jeanine. Whichever is the truth, I’m pissed.
When I first saw Gabler refuse and give the daughter excuse, I thought perhaps Sami had got to Gabler beforehand, warned him of the danger, and told him not to give up his bead under any circumstances. Then Gabler gave it away, and that theory went out the window. This is confirmed when Sami fills Gabler in on what just happened. To his credit, Gabler is a fantastic sport about the whole thing, congratulating Jeanine in confessional, even though he admits this makes the game harder for him.
Off to our challenge, which if the lack of Caps Lock was any indicator, is nothing to write home about. Pretty standard obstacle course with little we haven’t seen before. I’ll give credit that it’s bringing back some elements that have been long-absent, though. Particularly the “Carry a bucket of water to dump in another bucket over a tricky balance course” element. That’s been around pretty much since the show began, but it’s been gone for a while, so I’m cool with it coming back here.
I’ll also give credit that this obstacle course actually made me like the “Ski-Ball” ending. Yes, really. I’ve hated it since its inception on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, but this one I don’t hate. Why? Simple: They took away the notches at the end. Apart from just making this look less like a carnival game, this also means the shots take more skill, since you need to finesse your throws just so to make sure they don’t go too far and roll off the back. This also means there’s the devastating potential to undo your progress by knocking the balls off the platform in the throwing process. Not that this could happen to anyone, could it?
Sure enough, it does. As our tribes race for immunity and tarps of varying sizes, depending on first or second place finishing (lest you think a challenge a quarter of the way through the episode meant a double Tribal), things stay fairly even. Dumbass is slightly behind, understandable given they’ve had the most strategy talk this episode, but no one’s out of it, and everyone ends up on the (difficult) ball-throwing portion. Vesi unsurprisingly does the best. I say “unsurprising” because they got zero strategic content pre-challenge, so it was all but a given they would be immune. Better that they get first place outright, even if I do hate that it pokes a hole in my “No addition by subtraction.” theory. Coco seems to have a slight lead throughout, but fumbles when Ryan tries to use the two balls he’s landed as a stop, thereby upsetting all of them, and allowing Sami to have his victory.
With no double-Tribal in the offing this episode, we see the REAL reason the challenge is so early: ADVANTAGES! Yes, it’s time once again for Vesi to select one person from each tribe to go on a quest. They evidently decide to go via Phoneme Alliteration, as Geo, Jeanine, and Jesse are all selected to go. Can’t fault any of the choices from the outside, really.
Now, you might think Ryan just made a bad judgment call in the challenge, particularly as we saw both Cassidy and Geo suggest Ryan bounce off the two balls up top, leading to the loss. But no! Ryan wants you to know that he INTENDED to lose that challenge! Oh, he didn’t come in planning to throw it, but he wants Cassidy out, and so he’s ok with losing. And I buy this line of “I meant to do that” was much as I did when Phillip Sheppard said the same thing on “Survivor Caramoan”. That is to say, NOT AT ALL! Hell, I’d be more inclined to believe PHILLIP in this case, since Phillip at least did so after the tribe swap, and thus might have legit reason to want someone out. Throwing a challenge to get out CASSIDY? Look, she’s a good strategist to watch out for, but she’s not challenge-throw worthy. Or is this the edit telling us that Cassidy is the next Erika Casupanan (“Survivor 41”)? Either way, not buying this. I think Ryan just goofed.
Even if he were inclined to blame his tribemates, Ryan would not do so. Why? Because he’s just that nice! So nice is Ryan that when discussing what lie to tell Cassidy with Karla and James, Ryan volunteers himself, basically saying they should act pissed at him for losing the challenge. Credit where credit is due: It takes a lot of guts to volunteer yourself as what you believe to be the decoy. It can certainly be the smart move. Note that volunteering someone else as the decoy was a contributing factor to Andrew Savage’s loss on “Survivor Cambodia”. So, if Ryan truly believes the vote to be Cassidy, I can’t fault him too much for the overall move. Some of the details, however, go a bit far. In particular Ryan asking people not to strategize with him AT ALL seems an unnecessary risk, but at least it makes sense. Worse is Ryan telling Cassidy to vote him if she has to. Look, there’s being a good sport, and then there’s being an UNBELIEVABLY good sport! Ryan is hamming it up a bit much here and, like Geo earlier, is roundly mocked for it.
As to our adventurers, they’re dropped off at a platform to row a boat in rough seas to a sand spit. Look, I know we said we wanted variety in the journeys, and this is better than nothing, but we meant more the MECHANISM for getting an advantage on the journeys, or even whether there’s any advantage at all! Changing up the method of getting there is nice, but is the least of our concerns.
One constant is being told to get to know one another. Which they would probably do, if Geo didn’t dominate the conversation. Geo hams it up that he was on the outs at the last vote, and swears he’s going to risk for whatever is there. Basically trying to do what Noelle did when she went on the journey a few episodes ago. Geo, however, believes himself to be lying, which raises suspicion on both Jeanine’s and Jesse’s parts. Well, ok, Jesse says he thinks Geo is telling the truth, but this may not stop him from going for an advantage. I think the key Geo is missing is offering some alliance down the road in return, as Noelle did. Gives people some incentive besides pity to not risk their vote.
The only person I could fault for risking here is Jeanine. After all that paranoia about losing your vote, and ALREADY having an idol, you’re going to risk again? Jesse, however, believes he’s good with his group, and so has little reason not to risk for himself, and Geo believes the same. In reality, Geo is on the outs, but as there are no numbers for him to get back in power, he needs some sort of leverage, so I can’t fault his decision here. I will fault Jesse’s logic of “what would my kids want?”, but admittedly this is results-oriented talk.
Sure enough, all agree to risk, and head back to their camps. The one true flaw in this episode is that unlike the last time we had multiple people risk, we see each tribe do theirs one at a time, meaning the third tribe shown contains the individual whose risk paid off. We start on Vesi. One flaw of keeping the mechanism the same on each journey is it means that a lie can be easily seen through, making a lie harder. Jesse is completely honest with his tribe, opens it in front of them, and finds out that he predictably lost his vote. Jeanine on Dumbass is next, though she sneaks past her sleeping tribe to open it in private… Before coming back and pretending to open it in front of them, revealing her lost vote in the process. What was the point of sneaking away then? Sami calls this a bad move for Jeanine in confessional, and we move on.
As expected, Geo got the advantage, another “Knowledge is Power”. This lends credence to the idea that the specific advantage is based on how many people risk for it, since this is inarguably the most powerful of the three (some would say broken, but I disagree), but of course we don’t have definitive proof. Geo is the only one who initially lies to his group, but after he and Karla go for a walk, he comes clean to her. Ok, show, is Geo’s number one Karla or Ryan? You’ve gone back and forth on this a number of times, and we kind of need a definitive answer! It’s important for us to understand the strategy dynamics!
Unfortunately for Geo, Karla is not truly on his side, no matter what he thinks. She spills the beans to Cassidy and James. We don’t actually see her SAY what Geo got, but we can presume she did. Still, Cassidy is not please. She, after all, is the TRUE decoy vote of the night, and wants to switch the vote to Ryan just to be safe. While I would point out that Geo can’t actually DO anything to save himself with that advantage, unless he steals Karla’s idol that no one but her knows about, it’s hard to blame Cassidy for being paranoid as the decoy. Blame they do, however, as Karla and James talk about Cassidy going “Full Lindsay” in insisting on getting her way and being paranoid. As such, they talk about bringing the vote back on to her.
Put bluntly, this would be a dumb move. Random moments aside, Geo and Ryan seem to be a tight two, and if you want to maintain your power on this tribe, they need to be broken up tonight. As to which of the two should go, it’s more of a toss-up. Ryan is better in challenges, and should you all make the merge, is a more visible threat, and thus a better shield. Geo, meanwhile, seems to have more of a relationship with the majority, and does have an advantage that could be used to the tribe’s benefit. On the whole, though, I say voting out Geo is the smarter move of the two. You don’t know when the merge is coming, so keeping Ryan around works out just in case the merge is far away. And even if it’s close, hey, he’s a shield! The big factor for me, though, is how Geo will use his advantage. As Karla points out, this is a powerful advantage, and one that could be used against her to blow up her game. Now, it could be argued that she has some influence over Geo, and has hidden her idol well. I would counter that, unless Cassidy goes tonight, Geo will realize he’s not in the majority, and will thus be less inclined to what others have to say about where and when his advantage is used. After tonight, I don’t see Geo using his advantage for anyone but Geo. As well he shouldn’t, of course, but it means there’s basically no reason to keep him around anymore.
There are two main topics at our much more somber Tribal tonight, with momentum being the first. Cassidy irritates the statistician in me by saying she believes in momentum. Look, if you know anything about statistics, “Streaks” are a myth. A statistical probability that people read far too much into, and believe in some mystical force that isn’t there. The only thing that MAY have an effect is a belief that you are or aren’t in a streak affecting your performance, which is all psychology, all in your head. Just keep a positive mindset and it won’t fall out that way, apart from random chance.
This is basically the attitude that Ryan adopts, and is basically the topic for the rest of Tribal. Ryan is a nice guy. Just so nice. Trying to play as fair as possible, and at peace with wherever he goes out. Everyone just talks about how nice Ryan is; how much they can’t believe it. Some even speculate that they don’t believe it. It speaks to Ryan’s charm that I actually kind of believe the guy. Anyone going from Coco would be a loss at this point, as I like them all, but Ryan would be a particularly hard one. We may not have much of his backstory since the first episode, but the dude is just so inherently likeable.
For once, the tribe plays optimally, and Geo goes home in a blindside. In keeping with the other theme this episode, dude is a good sport about it in his final exit interview. Despite it being the smart move, I am sorry to see Geo go. It may have been earned strategically, but the dude seemed like a nice guy, and was certainly putting all his effort in the game, which is always nice to see. He may have earned his exit, but he will be missed. On the plus side, we finally have a man voted off this season after four straight women. Something different! Yay!
Remember all that speculation that the merge was a while away? Yeah, no, it’s next episode. With 13 people still left. Look, I know the double-elimination first episode (whether by immunity or medevac) was getting predictable, but I meant change up WHEN said double-elimination happens, not remove it entirely! 13 people left is just too many. Then again, I think 11 people left is too many, so what do I know?
Dumbass tribe having a plurality at the merge? Did not see that coming. Will be interesting to see how that plays out next week.
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 
Leave a comment