Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 2: Praise Be

My brothers and sisters in “Survivor”, this is a glorious day!  The blessings of Burnett be upon us!  Long have we wandered through the desert of non-musicality!  Long have we be mistreated at the hands of the editors, denying us even the barest on montages!  I will admit, even my own faith began to falter that we would ever see the promised land again.  But I come before you, my faith restored!  Praise be upon us, the intro is back!

But before I can commence the sermon… Erm, “Blog”, we must start with another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

With an increased watch-time comes an increased chance for missing stuff, I suppose, though these are really two minor points more for jokes than anything.  Firstly, fans of his might have noted that I neglected to mention Drew at all last episode.  That’s because he’s largely forgettable in my eyes (at least in the first episode), though I do try and cover everything relevant.  Drew was part of the opening confessional montage, but was kind of generic there, so I don’t fault myself there.  More egregious, however, is my neglecting to mention the confessional he gets in the middle of the episode.  There he talks about the different sides of his personality, specifically the nerdy introvert side, and the partying frat boy side.  He hopes he can meet somewhere in the middle and find success.  All pretty standard, and again, almost would not be worth mentioning.  However, rather that describe them as “sides” or “aspects”, despite that being what he means, he refers to them as separate personalities altogether, bringing to mind Cydney Gillon of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, who said much the same thing.  I’d laugh at Drew for this slip-up, but it’s pretty obvious what he actually means, and hey, Cydney is hardly a bad player to model oneself after.  

The other was merely me not mentioning Hannah’s parting words as she walked away from Probst, noting that if there was an “Edge of Extinction” twist, she would not be going.  This proves that, even as a quitter, we can respect Hannah.  Hating on “Edge of Extinction”, both the season and the twist, are by now a time-honored tradition of this blog.  

After a “Previously On” segment that I’m surprised they brought back, but doesn’t really impact things, Hannah’s quit is the talk of Little Lulu, Sean (yes, I’m sure there’s a “Sean” on this team) in particular being blindsided by the move.  This leaves everyone a little shaken up, and all respectfully take the appropriate time to mourn her.  

Once the mourning period is over, however?  Talk then turns to the fallout from the tribe now being who it is.  Hannah was clearly not going to be the one to go, so it must have been someone else.  The editing, as well as exit interviews, indicates that it would have been Emily, and this episode itself will later confirm this would be the case.  Now, Emily may lack many, MANY social graces, but even she could see that writing on the wall, and beings an apology tour.  She attempts to justify herself as saying whatever she could since she was the target, which given the evidence MAY be true, though to be fair that doesn’t explain her actions towards Bruce, or trying to throw Kaleb and Sabiyah under the bus when they were away doing Sweat or Savvy, but for specifically her words at Tribal Council, it may be true.  

Unfortunately for Emily, basically no one is buying it.  Least of all Sabiyah, the person most offended by Emily’s words at Tribal Council.  Emily then makes the classic mistake of compounding her bungled apology by getting defensive when Sabiyah tries to end it early, basically saying “We each feel how we feel.”  An understandable gut reaction, but by no means the smart move for Emily here.  She eventually gets a clue, though she needs to check in with the rest of her tribe for confirmation.  Sabiyah, for her part, stews on the beach, and doesn’t know how she and Emily can continue to coexist.  I’m sure there’s no ironic outcome based around that confessional coming up whatsoever.  

Then we get the intro.  The glorious, glorious intro.  Maybe it’s because it’s been gone for so long, but this one felt better than a lot of modern ones.  More dynamic shots, and while the theme is a remix of old ones (Amazon being prominent in the score), it’s some more unusual choices, and really made the show come alive again.  My feeble words cannot do it justice.  Go watch it, then come back here when you’re done.  

Intro watched?  Good.  Rather than cut to commercial, we check in on Belo, where Bruce is the life of the party.  As if to provide proof that bringing back the intro was a good idea, Bruce and company even sing a few snippets of it while at work.  Bear in mind, the intro hasn’t been a part of the show since “Survivor Winners at War”, three years ago at this point.  Yet it remains so iconic that players even now sing it when in the game.  See why you should never have gotten rid of it, even as just an online exclusive that only airs once in the show proper?

Ok, ok, enough gushing about the intro.  Really, this segment can be called “The Two Perspectives on Bruce”  Fittingly, our two attorneys, Jake and Katurah, provide the opposing sides in this debate.  Jake, in the “Bruce is a fun guy” camp, cites Bruce’s weird noises, funny faces, and all around good work ethic.  Sure, Bruce would prefer that more work be done around the camp, but he’s nice about it.  Katurah, in contrast, feels that Bruce is too bossy with the workload.  Jake may have called him “Uncle Bruce”, but in Katurah’s mind, he’s the dad, and she doesn’t like it.  This is not helped by him name-dropping the players he’s close with from his past season, implying that he may have a bit more game-knowledge that he wants to let on.  Frankly, the latter point at least is an objectively bad move for Bruce.  He already comes in with a lot of sympathy, but that will only last so long.  Making himself seem more like a returnee rather than a guy getting a do-over, only makes himself look like more of a threat, and run out said goodwill faster.  

Next stop is Reba, where Sifu is making his fun by showing Austin how he can punch a tree with his left hand, and not feel any pain.  Kind of an odd pastime, but hey, different strokes for different folks.  More identifiable to me is J. Maya’s idea of fun.  Channeling her inner Dipper Pines, she examines the tribe flag, trying to decipher what she’s certain is a code to some idol or advantage on there.  To her credit, she’s not technically wrong, she just doesn’t have all the pieces.  I’m also really impressed that she gives a good, yet succinct, summary of how to decode a message.  She looks for patterns that might indicate word or sentence structure, she tries to figure out some known vowels as a place to start from, based on standing alone.  It’s honestly all a very valid approach, just one that happens to be wrong.  J. Maya might not have gotten a lot of screen time so far, but for this scene alone, I like her.  

Austin, in contrast, does have the full clue, but waits patiently for his tribe to be away before jumping on it.  He figures out the message pretty easily, telling him to dig by “Palm Tree X”.  Whether this is a pair of palm trees that make an “X” or a palm tree with an “X” carved on it, only time will tell.  

Back at Little Lulu, a new day dawns with Emily idol-hunting, very blatantly so.  Given her position, I’d normally decry this in favor of trying to make bonds with the players left, but frankly, we saw how well that went last night.  I can’t really fault Emily for this.  That said, the trouble with blatant idol-hunting when everyone’s against you is that they’ll do everything in their power to stop you.  Thus, they all scatter to find her, Brandon admitting he’d rather find an idol for himself.  Sabiyah is eventually the one that finds Emily.  You know, the two who get along so well.  Sabiyah spins a yarn about everyone looking in pairs to ensure tribe cohesion, which Emily bluntly calls out as them attempting to keep her from an idol.  She stops short of saying “Fuck You”, but the tone is there  Again, you can’t fault Emily for her logic here.  That is blatantly what the tribe is doing, and she might as well try to counteract it.  The issue is tone and delivery.  You can beg off without dissing Sabiyah like that.  

Emily admits that she’s having trouble being alone to idol hunt, even with sending off Sabiyah as she did, and this spells her doom.  Brandon initially seems to get his wish, finding parchment to lead to an idol.  The trouble is, as one would expect, it’s a Beware Advantage.  Brandon, realizing how his luck in the game has been so far, makes the wise decision to let Sabiyah be the one to handle this, since she was around at the time.  Sabiyah, not one to look a gift horse in the mouth (and whose vote is much less valuable, since she’s unlikely to be targeted), agrees, and we see that, again, the show is making a smart change.  While all Beware Advantages will be multiple-stage idol hunts, the exact mechanics of each hunt will vary.  Rather than hold the parchment up to the tribe flag, Sabiyah must match a hole in her parchment over top of her tribe map to determine WHICH significant-looking tree she uses.  She gets this pretty quickly, but is stumped (pun intended) at the tree itself.  Partly this is due to Brandon being zero help, but in fairness, this is a tricky one.  It basically requires that you notice that a tree that does not normally bear coconuts, has a coconut in it, and go from there.  They leave it for now, Sabiyah still without a vote.  

We need a pallet cleanser after that heavy focus on strategy.  Dee is there to provide, as the conversation at Reba deals entirely with her having an abnormally long big toe.  There is a half-assed effort to tie this into the game, with Dee saying this will help her in balance challenges later on.  I’ll admit, I’m not sure if this is her joking, or if there is actually some reason why a longer big toe helps with balance.  Either seems plausible to me.  Really, though, it doesn’t matter.  This scene exists purely to show us the players hanging around and bonding.  Just being themselves and having fun.  And I am here for it..  This is the sort of content modern “Survivor” has been missing, at least within the actual show.  Just stuff to let us bond with the castaways, and not be “All strategy/advantages, all the time!”  The show is putting it’s 90 minutes to extremely good use, despite some stuff we’ll see later.  

Not to say that Reba is devoid of strategy, of course.  No, we see that Julie has made herself the team Mom, and has particularly bonded with Drew.  The pair agree to work together, mutually agreeing to bring in Dee and Austin.  Drew then talks about how everything is going exactly as he planned, and how he’s running the game, stopping just short at declaring that everything the light touches is his kingdom.  Might this be a set-up for hubris?  Only time will tell.  

We return to an unexpected scene at Little Lulu: Someone actually talking to Emily!  Specifically, Kaleb is giving her a shoulder to lean on, along with friendly advice about not being so blunt or playing so fast.  Awfully big for the guy she was literally targeting last episode.  It’s such that one almost suspects it might be him lulling her into a false sense of security, but no, from what we see, Kaleb is being genuine, at least on some level.  His logic is basically that of Terry befriending Abi-Maria on “Survivor Cambodia”: If someone has no ally, why not make them an asset?  And yeah, it’s good strategy.  I don’t think this means Kaleb doesn’t still want Emily out next, but why make an enemy?  Why limit the cards in your hand?

All in all, a very good scene… That I wish had been set up at all!  For all that I praised the use of extra time in this season so far, this is the one time I’d say they dropped the ball a little.  Not terribly, since we’ve had less-foreshadowed moments before, but this bond REALLY comes out of nowhere.  One scene, they’re mortal enemies, the next, friendly allies.  Just kind of a jarring shift, is all.  

Emily is a bit more receptive to the feedback this time, particularly as Kaleb makes sure to highlight her strengths and make clear that he understands her perspective, while also showing what needs to happen to get back in good with everyone.  Emily tears up a bit in confessional, noting that she’s surprised she’s this emotional, and that this isn’t how she is in everyday life.  A bit trite at this point, but it comes across as honest.  I did appreciate her metaphor of her bringing a bazooka to a tea party in terms of how she plays the game versus the rest of her tribe.  And to her credit, she does seem to be trying to take the feedback to heart.  She goes on another apology tour, this one much more effective.  She’s shown bonding a bit with everybody, and even Sabiyah seems slightly less mad at here.  

However, it’s while making up with Brandon that the game comes back in full force once again.  Boats arrive, and by now, pretty much every tribe knows it’s journey time.  Reba and Belo both decide things by rock-paper-scissors, resulting in Drew being sent for Reba, and Bruce for Belo.  The latter is to the chagrin of Katurah, his opponent, who notes that this will give the guy she doesn’t like more ammunition, potentially.  Only Little Lulu does things differently, coming to a “consensus” we don’t see of Brandon going.  Again, we’re missing some important context here, as we see no discussion about this.  And lest you think her emotional confessional earlier meant “Mean Emily” was gone, she does raise a public objection, saying that she feels like she’s being kept away from any advantages again.  Really, the best that can be said for her here is she’s marginally more diplomatic about it, and that “marginally” is doing a lot of heavy-lifting.  

The three arrive to the usual “Take time to get to know one another” note, a discussion that Drew takes charge of, thereby avoiding giving any information himself.  Bruce just talks about his feelings about camp work ethic, while Brandon spills the beans on basically everything, confirming that Emily made a bad first impression with everybody.  Drew notes that Bruce gave nothing away, and thus is probably a bad person to work with, while Brandon was the opposite.  All a reasonable conclusion, except that Drew then says that Bruce is bad at playing the game as a result.  Um, did the definition of a “good game” change unexpectedly?  Because to me, it looks like Bruce kept his cards close to his chest, while Brandon proved he had zero poker face.  Granted, if you’re Drew, you probably want to work with Brandon over Bruce, but that’s because Bruce IS playing well in that scenario (not subtly, but well), where Brandon is not.  

After this discussion, they end up taking separate paths, though all lead to the same dilemma, which I’m calling “schmuck bait”.  They basically took part of a challenge from “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, matching tile patterns to find the three unique ones to make a combination out of to open a lock, and made it a challenge in and of itself.  The “schmuck” part is that they only have three minutes, and even if you don’t make a mistake in matching the tile patterns, it’s still largely down to luck how quickly you find the right combination.  With the risk of a vote, for an unknown advantage, which could come down to luck as to whether you get it or not?  Yeah, only a schmuck would take that deal.  

Naturally Brandon goes for it  Drew does as well, to be fair, but I’ll be easier on Drew since his vote isn’t as valuable.  Brandon knows (as does the rest of his tribe, save Emily) that Sabiyah has no vote, and he’s on thin ice as is.  Plus, given his challenge performance, he can’t expect good luck.  Drew, by contrast, has been at least average in challenges, and is safely ensconced in the majority, meaning a worst-case scenario is not that bad for him.  Bruce chooses not to play, as befits his game style.  

For all that I knock Brandon, I do like the guy.  He does bring the Superman energy one wants to see.  And while playing was a dumb decision for him, I’m happy he did, as we get to hear his manic commentary while he tries to make the combination work, which is a joy.  Unfortunately for Brandon, he failed in matching up his tiles, so he runs out of time and loses his vote.  Really, this is a challenge, so what did he expect.  He comes clean to his tribe, much to their exasperation, with Sean wondering if Brandon can actually do ANYTHING challenge-wise?  A fair question, given the evidence we have so far.  

Contrast with Drew, who DID match correctly, and DID eventually guess right, earning himself safety without power.  This advantage needs no introduction in and of itself, though I will note this one is a bit underpowered.  It can only be used up until the final 10, or another 7 rounds.  Not nothing, but that advantage has more power the later it’s used, meaning it’s pretty heavily nerfed, in my opinion.  

This nerf is why I don’t really blame Drew for sharing it with the tribe.  It can help build trust, and with his position, is likely to have little value directly to him, since he’s in a good position for his tribe.  And it can’t be said it doesn’t pay dividends, since Austin trusts him with that his Beware Advantage says.  Even if I wanted to, can’t argue with results.  Point Drew.  

Since Bruce didn’t play at all, we instead spend time with Brando, who attempts to wear his buff as a tube top.  Speaking as another cisgender male, I feel for him.  I myself have tried that once or twice, and it’s A) Painful and B) ineffective without something up top to hold it on.  

This and his demeanor do endear him to the women of Belo, however, whom Kendra assures us are sticking together.  They want Brando as their fourth, which he readily agrees to.  Jake and Bruce, however, can’t help but notice they’re kind of on the outs, so Bruce starts making inroads with Brando.  He gives a casual “Open communication” agreement with him, and springboards off of this to make a four-person alliance.  Himself and Jake, along with Brando and Kellie.  Thus, we see the true nature of Belo.  Rather than a gender split, it’s really three pairs.  Despite Kendra’s assurances, Kellie is tighter with Brando than anyone, and the pair are the swings between the pair of Katurah and Kendra and Bruce and Jake.  Standard tribe dynamic, but a good one.  

Whatever knocks you may have for this episode, it cannot be denied that this episode did a much better job of making it a mystery as to which tribe loses.  We have a good understanding of tribe dynamics and alliances, such that anyone going would make sense.  Here we also see that the show has FINALLY made a change long-overdue: No sitting out back-to-back challenges now means what it says, rather than resetting after a Tribal Council.  Given the lack of reward challenges in recent seasons, all I can say is “About time”.  

Really, the only clue we have as to the outcome is that Little Lulu is favored to lose every challenge, just because of how their tribe is stacked.  And even that seems like it might not be the case on our standard “Obstacle course to puzzle” challenge.  Yeah, they make a big deal about how the coral puzzle is “new”, but let’s be real, the pieces are so similar to those of the “tree puzzle” and the “fire puzzle” that it might as well be the same.  

Point being, however, Little Lulu does not have the blowout loss one might expect.  They actually hold their own pretty well, and are even ahead of Belo in getting to the puzzle.  But then, they just HAD to put Brandon on the puzzle.  Dude panics and falls apart, while Sabiyah insists she can’t do it on her own.  Thus, Little Lulu loses in a blowout, keeping Reba and Belo immune, while also getting them varying amounts of fishing gear.  All while Little Lulu still has no fire.  Remember that.  

Emily makes no bones about the situation once they’re back, noting that it’s going to be her or Brandon, given her rubbing people the wrong way, and his general challenge suckiness.  Thus, Kaleb, Sabiyah, and Sean all go off to talk, though they are not spared Emily’s sarcasm to Brandon about how it must be nice to be in the majority.  Said majority quickly agree that Emily should probably go, which much as I like her is the correct move.  Yes, Brandon is a challenge liability, but if he costs you another one, you can vote him off again.  Emily might make it easier for you to win, since she at least is not a challenge sink from what we’ve seen, but is winning with Emily really a win?  Wanting her around would be conditional upon her being loyal, something neither I nor Sabiyah seems to believe, despite her valiant efforts to turn her game around.  Thus, she is the better choice.  Loyalty is going to be more important long-term than a potential challenge win.  Really, neither are a terrible choice, but I would say Emily is the smarter move overall.  

The issues is that Brandon has no vote, and therefore no Shot in the Dark, while Emily does.  Combine that with Sabiyah still not having a vote as well, and things look pretty shaky.  As such, the hunt for the idol resumes in earnest, and after a montage of people coming so close yet missing it, the three finally notice the coconut and get it down.  They’re overjoyed to be able to have Sabiyah claim her idol and get her vote back!… Only to discover that the idol is encased in WAX, which must specifically be BURNED away, rather than chiseled.  You know, a tough task for the tribe with no fire.  

Thankfully for them, Emily gives up her Shot in the Dark for Sabiyah to hold for the evening as a show of loyalty.  I’m of two minds about this, and it depends entirely on whether the Shot in the Dark is transferrable or not.  If it isn’t, and this is just Emily trying to show trust, I love it.  Helps build the social bonds she’s been working on for little sacrifice (yes, she gives up a potential chance to save herself, but a 1/6 shot is not much.  Better to go for the social move).  If it IS transferrable, however, this is a terrible idea, as it’s just one more incentive to vote you off.  Think Shan and J.D. on “Survivor 41”.  

There’s still decent mystery as we head off to Tribal Council.  Good, because that’s about all it has going for it.  It’s honestly not bad, but with how obvious the targets are, there’s no intriguing double-talk, and mostly a rehash of what we already know.  The one bad part is how Probst tries to tie Brandon’s challenge struggles back to his own life.  Probst, the metaphors are bad enough.  Don’t make Tribal Council about you in the bargain as well.  Both Brandon and Emily give the “Here’s what my life is like, and what this show means to me” moment, so we at least keep the mystery going up to the end.  

Going against what I said was smart, Brandon goes home.  I’m honestly not sure how I feel about his exit.  It was definitely earned, and Brandon wasn’t my favorite, but I still liked the guy.  I’m happy Emily is still around, as she remains my favorite, but I didn’t want Brandon to go either.  Really, I suppose I didn’t want anyone from Little Lulu to go, though, so I would probably never be satisfied.  I can say with confidence, however, that I love how Brandon goes out.  Still as enthusiastic in getting his torch snuffed and giving his final words as ever.  That’s a lot of class, and his joy at just being there shines through.  Glad it was a good experience, man.  Sorry it didn’t go the way you wanted.  

One or two nitpicks aside, I truly enjoyed this episode!  Good mix of strategy and character, good mystery, good development.  Challenges were a bit on the weak side, and Probst was mildly annoying, but if that’s the worst I can say, I’m extremely happy.  And hey, if nothing else, we got the intro back!  Huzzah!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Kaoh Rong

Once again, if CBS will not fill the void in our fandom when this goes up by officially announcing the cast of the new season, then it falls to me to fill the void with needless speculation about “What Might Have Been”.  And oh, what a treat we have today.  “Survivor Kaoh Rong” is a personal favorite season of mine, largely due to giving us Aubry Bracco, my all-time favorite player at the time of this writing.  I acknowledge that the season has some flaws, mainly in the editing department, and this keeps if out of the “Great” category of seasons, but I still love it.  Definite room for improvement, though, so let’s see if one tiny change is enough.  

Before discussing said change, though, the usual reminder that there are SPOILERS ahead.  It’s difficult to talk about changing a season without comparing it to how the season actually went down in reality, so I can’t guarantee that this and future seasons won’t be spoiled in this blog.  Past seasons may also be mentioned as well.  Hence, read at your own risk.  

THE IMPACT

Like with Africa, which we talked about earlier this off-season, Kaoh Rong is something of a Holy Grail for “What-If?” scenarios.  Between the medical evacuations and the number of lucky coincidences that happen, there’s just a trove to go through.  Most of these center around Aubry in particular, since while you may say what you want about her in hindsight, she is presented as the main character of this season, so of course most story beats will seem to center around her.  In particular, it’s common for the Michele fans/Aubry detractors to point out that she was saved by luck (had Neal not been medevaced, she almost certainly goes at the merge), while the Aubry fans/Michele detractors will counter that Aubry was also screwed by luck (if Joe doesn’t eat a ton of meat at the final five, Michele almost certainly goes then, leading to an inevitable Aubry victory).  The point I’m making here is twofold: Luck is a factor in “Survivor”, for good or for ill, and these scenarios have been gone over to death by the fanbase, are both equally true, and thus not interesting enough to talk about in this blog on their own.  

Now that I’ve hopefully dodged THAT bullet, and also hopefully avoided reigniting a dead debate that was very cruel and unnecessary, we can talk about the actual change we’re going to make.  Rather than change the outcome of luck, we’re going to change someone else’s mind.  That someone is, of course, Aubry, and that time is going to be at the Final 6.  In our timeline, Tai pushed for ejecting Michele here, something Aubry could have gone along with.  She had Joe’s vote on lock, and Jason, the intended target of Michele and Cydney, would doubtless have gone along with the plan if only to save his own skin.  In our timeline, of course, Aubry sides with Michele and Cydney, citing Cydney as someone she’s tight with, and Jason goes home here.  

That said, what if Aubry decided to take more of an interest in Tai’s plan?  What if Aubry became concerned about the tight twosome that Michele and Cydney form?  We know from post-show interviews that the two were tight from the swapped Chan Loh (and thank you, by the way, show, for COMPLETELY leaving out that particular storyline, only adding to the confusion your ending brought).  It’s not impossible that Aubry becomes concerned about this, and decides to go along with Tai’s plan.  The immediate outcome, of course, is that Michele goes while Jason stays, but what about how the rest of the season (all two remaining episodes of it at least) plays out?  

THE FALLOUT

Aubry choosing to keep Jason is, of course, a controversial move.  I suspect Aubry justifies it to the cameras by emphasizing the Cydney/Michele bond, and also stating that Jason is not good at puzzles, or looks that good to the jury.  Even so, I’m sure this is seen by the fanbase as a possible game-ruining move at the time, and Jason probably brags to confessional about how he just saved himself, even though it was really Tai and Aubry’s doing.  Apart from this, though, our penultimate episode doesn’t change much.  Joe probably still wins reward, and while he may take Tai rather than Cydney with him (and even that’s not guaranteed), this does not change him eating too much meat on reward, and getting evacuated as a result.  Really, all that we can guarantee changes is that Aubry looks an even bigger fool going into the finale, noting in confessional that not voting out Jason may have been her biggest mistake, now that he’s guaranteed a spot in the final four.  

Now, there is one possible change that could shape how things go, which is the aforementioned who Joe chooses to take on reward.  Nothing really changes if he takes Cydney, and she and Aubry patch things up on reward.  If Joe is still in the mindset of “No trust with Cydney” from the last vote, though, I could see him taking Tai.  If so, this raises the possibility that Cydney, burned from the last vote, makes amends with Jason.  In the Aubry/Michele debate in our timeline, Cydney often gets left by the wayside, despite being an excellent strategist and key player in the dominant alliance.  True, she wasn’t beating either of our two heroines, given how many bridges she burned, but still, she deserves respect.  I could see her trying to worm her way back in with Jason, especially if she believed that Aubry had fully turned against her, and not just wanted to break up her bond with Michele.  Whether it would work is another matter.  Jason strikes me as the type to hold a grudge, and I’m not sure he’d be open to anything Cydney had to say.  True, you could argue he has few options, but I could see him believing he could just immunity his way to the end from here.  

All this to say that while I acknowledge another possibility is available, I suspect Cydney tries to work her way back in with Aubry, having little choice otherwise.  Fortunately for her, Jason is still considered the bigger target, and is in for a round of bad luck.  I don’t see him winning the final four immunity, given how tricky that puzzle was, meaning Tai is the most likely winner.  Sadly, we do miss out on Michele’s kicking of the puzzle, so that’s one downgrade.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Jason, without immunity, goes at final four.  Given that he’s the villain of the season, even in this timeline, there is much rejoicing from the audience.  

Of course, this leads us to the challenge at the final three.  It’s certainly possible that, unless Cydney wins, Aubry goes to the end, so I could see the season following “Survivor Cagayan” even more closely, and going for a final two here.  On the other hand, I don’t think production wants to risk even that, so we probably still have our “Juror Removal” twist and a final three there.  Fittingly, this final three is one “Brain”, one “Brawn”, and one “Beauty”, a fun bit of symmetry.  

Given how close Aubry came in that challenge, coupled with it not playing to Sydney’s strengths, I’d say Aubry is probably the winner of the challenge.  It would be easy to say she just votes Scot off the jury, since that’s what she wanted in our timeline, but in this timeline, I think she goes for Julia.  Also a person guaranteed not to vote for her, but more so than Scot in this timeline.  Scot doesn’t like anybody on this final three.  He doesn’t want to vote for any of them.  Yet, since Aubry burned him the least directly out of those left, I could see her thinking she has a shot at his vote.  And if she doesn’t, well, Julia was never going to vote for her either, so it all evens out anyway.  

Perhaps controversial these days, but I’m inclined to say that Aubry wins in this final three regardless of who she gets rid of.  She has three votes guaranteed on this jury (Neal, Nick, and Joe), and while she definitely has two votes guaranteed against her (Michele and Debbie), I think she has a chance at at least Jason’s vote.  After all, if he and Cydney didn’t mend their relationship, then we know from our timeline that Jason was rooting against Cydney, and Tai directly betrayed him on the Scot boot.  Jason may not care for Aubry, but she’s the least objectionable out of the three.  Add onto that Michele’s excellent Final Tribal performance not being there, and Aubry’s average Final Tribal performance looks a lot better.  It may only be 4-3 (depending on who our final jury member is, and how persuadable they actually are), but Aubry comes out on top here.  

THE LEGACY

Before we get into how this impacts the view of the season as a whole, let’s talk about future seasons, since really, this changes little.  While Jason and Cydney are both bigger, more respected characters, there’s not really a good chance for them to come back.  “Survivor Game Changers” is the only full returnee season since then, and I don’t see them nixing any of the Kaoh Rong players we got in our timeline.  And I don’t see them having more than four from a single season, so that is shot.  Aubry’s win doesn’t preclude her coming back, either, since winners were ok that season.  

That said, her win DOES torpedo her chances, and I’d say Aubry is maybe even first out of this season in this timeline.  One of the reasons I will defend Aubry’s game on Game Changers is that, while she never had any real power, the fact that she even MADE IT that far is impressive.  Game Changers, like “Survivor All-Stars” before it, had an anti-winner bias.  Less because “They already got money”, and more because “They’re the biggest threats.”  This justification led to Aubry being lumped in this group in our timeline, with no less than the Queen herself, Sandra Diaz-Twine, wanting her gone.  After all, the prevailing wisdom at the time was “Aubry should have won.”  Partly by good swap luck, and partly by her own guile, Aubry making it as far as she did, power or no, was nothing short of a miracle, and her game that season deserves respect.  But with an actual win under her belt?  Aubry has no chance of making it far this season.  

Of course, this does preclude her from coming back for Edge of Extinction, so she’ll need a replacement.  This would seem the place to include Cydney, but it’s only in the last year or two that Cydney has said she’s willing to return.  She’s doubtless asked, but I think she declines, for the understandable reason of her body deteriorating from the show not being good for her bodybuilding career.  My next thought for who to put in Aubry’s spot was someone cast after her to match her archetype.  Hannah Shapiro of “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” and Gabby Pascuzzi of “Survivor David vs. Goliath” would probably be the top candidates in that regard.  However, I ended up deciding that neither would go, as the former has stated she won’t play again, while the latter, having just come from the same filming cycle, would be unfamiliar to the fans that season.  She would basically get the same reaction from the players as Amanda on “Survivor Micronesia”, and I don’t think production wants that again.  

No, I think Aubry’s open spot here gives Chrissy Hoffbeck (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) her second shot.  While not the “nerd” archetype that Aubry has, Chrissy still gets the “offbeat choice” niche, while still being a favorite who is known to the fans.  Does this change the season drastically?  Eh, probably not.  While Chrissy might make it farther than Aubry does in our timeline, if only by virtue of actually playing an idol if she finds it, the anti-returnee sentiment on this season was too strong, and we still probably get our unsatisfying Chris win here.  The one upside is that there is no “Drive Aubry away from the fanbase by personally attacking her for a bad game decision”, meaning we have a more active online Aubry in this timeline, for which I, for one, am eternally grateful.  Seriously, fanbase, shame on you for how you acted toward her.  Agree or disagree with her, what you did is not ok.  

While Aubry’s win precludes her from appearing on Edge of Extinction, it puts her in the running for Winners at War.  Given that she’s a relatively recent, popular winner at this point, I don’t see her not coming back.  We don’t even have to speculate about who she replaces, since she just takes the spot Michele had in our timeline.  Does Aubry mimic Michele’s placement this season?  Probably not.  While I am an Aubry fan, I will admit that Michele’s game, while not as fun to watch, is overall smarter in terms of making a deep run.  Both play fantastic games that can be winning ones, but run their seasons a hundred times randomized, and Michele’s strategy wins out more often than Aubry’s.  Aubry probably goes either after the swap, depending on if she gets a bad draw, or early-ish in the merge if not.  Probably around where Adam goes in our timeline is her ceiling, just due to her threat level.  

But what of Kaoh Rong as a whole?  Well, for what I believe is the first time in the history of these blogs, we actually have a timeline change that RETROACTIVELY changes a season, or at least how it’s presented.  Specifically, Aubry’s decision at final six will FORCE the edit to highlight the Cydney/Michele bond a lot more to justify Aubry’s action, which is criticized at the time but in hindsight is seen as a brilliant move.  This paints the pair in a different light.  For want of a better term, a villainous light.  Don’t misunderstand, the pair aren’t the villains of the season; Scot and Jason claimed that title pretty definitively when they started sabotaging the camp.  But the pair are presented in a similar way to Ami on “Survivor Vanuatu”.  Not bad as people, but shrewd players who are an obstacle to our underdog hero.  Thereby de-facto antagonists, if not necessarily villainous.  This is why Cydney gets elevated to a higher status in the fandom, though conversely, Michele kind of becomes a footnote.  

Of course an Aubry win makes Kaoh Rong work much better as a season, and elevates it to at least near-greatness.  I hesitate to give it full greatness, partly taking into account my pro-Aubry bias, and partly because I could see her win being seen as “predictable”, which is often a mark against a season.  The main problem with the season in our timeline is that everything in the narrative tells us that Aubry SHOULD win against anyone.  I know edgic set up Michele as the winner fairly early, but as someone who was firmly watching at the time, I can tell you the assumption was that Michele won because Aubry got eliminated before the finals.  Thus, it still felt wrong when Aubry made finals but lost anyway.  There’s a conflict between what we think SHOULD happen narratively, and what ACTUALLY happens.  An Aubry win avoids that conflict, and at least for me, makes a much better season as a whole.  

Ok, so maybe this was an excuse to give my favorite player a win.  I admit to more bias in this blog than perhaps any other.  Still, I hope the scenario has been at least semi-plausible and fun for everyone, though!  Let me know what scenarios you’d like covered in the future!  I’ll happily give credit to anyone who gives me an idea I use.  Just post it in the comments section of this blog, or wherever you happened to find this blog.  Guidelines for submissions are listed below.  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Island of the Idols.

As always, our suggestions and feedback are much appreciated.  Take care out there, everyone!

-Matt

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 41” Finale: Predictably Predictable

Say what you will about this season of “Survivor”.  For all its ups and downs, for all the experiments it never took its eye off the fact that it needed to tell a story.  Particularly in the latter half of the season, the story took precedence, rather than the experimentation, and for that I am grateful.  If nothing else, it made the finale a fun watch.  Bear in mind, though, that a good story is not necessarily an unpredictable story, as this finale, for all of its strong points, may be one of the most predictable ones in recent memory.  

But before I can tell you THAT story, I have to tell you THIS story!  Yes, it wouldn’t be a finale blog without one final edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Pretty brief one this time, but a mess-up nonetheless.  You see, last episode I neglected to mention Deshawn living out one of my dreams, which is to snark back at a Probst catchphrase.  Specifically, when Probst offers the “Candy or Chicken” reward, he asks, as per usual, “Worth playing for?”  Deshawn says “No”, and says he wants family letters instead.  I know he got made fun of for this, but I’d say it was pretty understandable and sympathetic.  Granted, I’ve always wanted to snark more at “Wanna know what you’re playing for?” and “Once again, immunity, back up for grabs”, but that’s just me.  

We start off the true finale with Probst once again talking directly to the audience, though for once, I’m actually ok with it.  It feels like a substitute for the old “season recap with Probst narration”, and therefore more appropriate.  We also replace the “Reason why everyone will win” bit with the contestants building themselves up, which is more natural and does a better job of hiding the true contenders than the former option.  Even the clips of the season being projected on flotsam I can get behind, as it’s just the kind of hokiness I expect from “Survivor”.  I do get a little nervous when Probst talks about “One new twist”, but it turns out he’s just referring to reading the votes and doing a “season recap” on the island instead of live.  Unfortunately, but a necessity due to COVID restrictions, so it’s all good.  

That said, I do have to question the wisdom of removing the recap ENTIRELY.  True, it takes up a lot of time, but for people just tuning in for the finale… Oh, who am I kidding.  No one does that anymore.  No one channel surfs anymore.  Streaming media has not only taken away my best argument for why “Survivor” should leave Fiji once in a while, but now it’s also taken away the need for recaps at the top of episodes.  

Getting back from Tribal, Deshawn is of course in hot water over his “truth bomb”.  In an effort to show what he’s learned, he DOES act humble about the whole thing and admit it wasn’t very good, but the damage is done.  Though the pair make nice the next morning, neither trusts the other.  Contrast with the relationship between Erika and Ricard, which has only strengthened, and Ricard is going to make sure it stays that way.  Recognizing that he’s the biggest threat, Ricard wants to keep someone else on everyone’s mind, and with Deshawn blowing up his game last episode, he is that someone.  Ricard does this, but awkwardly using Deshawn’s proper name as often as possible.  Look, the PRINCIPLE for Ricard is sound, but man is it awkward to see him put it into practice.  

Sadly, my hope for no more advantages, especially in the finale, is dashed, as one final note is given to the contestants.  They must unscramble letters into words, then those words into a sentence, before going off to find said advantage, with the first one to do so getting it.  It’s a decent puzzle, and nice that they put it on screen for everyone at home to play along… IS WHAT I WOULD BE SAYING IF THEY LEFT IT UP THERE FOR MORE THAN 5 SECONDS AT A TIME/  REALLY, WHAT WAS THE POINT?  I will credit it, though, that it did tie into the “Game within the game” aspect.  If you didn’t play along on the website, basically every puzzle you solved, in addition to a question about the next episode, gave you a few letters, which would unscramble to a phrase.  The phrase in this episode, in fact, which is a nice touch.  

Once decoded, the phrase says the advantage is in “dancing trees”.  Erika is the last to solve the phrase, but it matters not, as she finds her advantage in a tree that frankly looks like several other trees out there.  Distinctive in its own way, I guess, but there were trees in the background that looked more like they were “dancing” to me.  Erika’s advantage for once comes with no downside, and is just a challenge advantage at the next immunity challenge.  As it’s not the final challenge, I’m ok with this.  Good for Erika!  

Speaking of said challenge, there’s sadly not much to speak about.  Your usual obstacle course with two puzzle ladders, and a 70+ piece logo puzzle at the end.  Bog standard fare, but it does come with the Joe Del Campo (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”) Memorial Reward of kebabs for two.  Erika’s advantage also turns out to be a bit OP, since half of her ladders are solved already.  This gives her a major lead into the puzzle, one she’s able to keep throughout the challenge.  Yeah, there’s no competition.  In a rare editing misstep, Probst tells us Ricard is close behind, but when we see Ricard, Erika’s puzzle (next to his) is clearly more complete than we just saw at a second ago.  Manipulative editing, folks.  

So Erika’s immune, breaking this season’s streak of those in danger winning immunity.  This spells doom for Ricard, though oddly he doesn’t seem to think so.  When Erika talks to him about how tough the decision is, Ricard starts off saying how it looks like it should be a no-brainer, which sounds like he’s going to show good self-knowledge about his threat level… And then he talks about how Erika hates Deshawn and should vote him out.  Way to go, Ricard.  

Erika does talk about the conflict of her heart, which wants to vote out Deshawn, and her head, which says Ricard must go.  Erika sadly can’t sell it like Shan can, and this is a no-brainer.  Ricard NEEDS to go.  He is, far and away, the biggest jury threat left.  You CANNOT, under any circumstances, keep him in the game, and the show itself is only making a half-hearted attempt to say he might stay.  We need something else to make Tribal more exciting.  

Enter Xander.  For all those saying I was too hard on Xander, and not giving him credit where his credit was due… Well, you’re probably right overall, but this episode does its best to vindicate me in my feelings.  Xander tanks HARD this episode, and while he actually DOES avoid doing a dumb here, he teeters dangerously close.  This being the last night his idol can be played, Xander wants to play his idol, and wants it to matter.  Sadly, he does not have the brains of goddess Angelina of “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, and rather than come up with a convoluted way for him to play his idol correctly, he just wants to play it on Ricard.  Which yes, would be playing an idol correctly, but this is somewhat offset by the fact that YOU KEPT THE BIGGEST JURY THREAT AROUND!  A CORRECT IDOL PLAY DOESN’T MATTER IF THE OUTCOME HURTS YOU IN THE LONG RUN!

But really, this is a feeble attempt at misdirection.  Even I, on my most anti-Xander day, would not accuse him of being that dumb.  Tribal Council doesn’t even try to hide it, with the whole thing just being a Ricard love-fest.  Ricard goes over his life status, and it pulls at the heartstrings, not going to lie.  Ricard even goes full Jeremy Collins on “Survivor Cambodia” in an attempt to stay, talking about how he and his husband are having a second child soon.  Everyone is emotional, but are ultimately ruled by their heads.  

Yes, if the emotional buildup didn’t clue you in, Ricard is gone.  Xander does play his idol, but wisely pays it for himself, just to be safe.  I am, of course, sorry to see Ricard go, as he was one of my favorites the entire season, but for there to be any tension at Final Tribal, he needed to go.  At least he’s a good sport of the way out.  

Back at camp, Xander continues his hot streak of bad ideas, talking about how a little drizzle doesn’t matter to them, even without a shelter on their new beach.  Xander evidently never watched cartoons, as a downpour now commences, and everyone runs for the cover of trees.  Trust me, compared to what we’re going to see later on, this is hardly Xander’s worst mistake.  

First, though, we have to get a GOOD bit of Xander content up in here.  Yes, out of everyone left, Xander is the only one not to yet get some sort of inspirational moment/flashback, and this must be corrected.  Him talking about proving to himself what he could do, coupled with photos of young Xander becoming more athletic, is nice, but it’s too little, too late.  I was willing to spot Danny his moment a few episodes ago, but your in the finale  Too late to do your work now.  

Plus, it kills any chance of anyone but Xander winning final immunity, and deciding who goes to Final Four firemaking, which is regrettably still around.  Also regrettable, our immunity challenge, where players have to spell “Final 3” in blocks while walking on effectively a large bow, and needing to keep everything balanced.  Not because the challenge is bad in and of itself, but because it comes from “Survivor Edge of Extinction”.  If you’re somehow new to the blog, suffice to say that in my opinion, every aspect of that season, save for Rick Devans and Big Wendy, should be expunged from the history of the show.  

Sure enough, Xander wins, and though he makes an effort to talk to everyone left regarding his decision, he doesn’t make a big secret about what he wants to do.  Deciding that he can’t give Erika the “victory” of winning the firemaking challenge (another point against “Survivor Edge of Extinction”: That becoming the meta), Xander is going to send Heather and Deshawn against each other, foreshadowed earlier by Deshawn talking about not wanting to do it.  Of the pair, Heather is set up as the better fire maker, thereby all but ensuring her defeat.  

Honestly, her best chance is Xander doing a dumb, and when Xander sees Erika having trouble starting fire (which I have to assume, given what we’ve seen of her fire-making abilities, was her trying to lower her threat level in that area), he gets just such an idea.  Because we haven’t drawn ENOUGH from “Survivor Edge of Extinction” lately, Xander contemplates giving up immunity to beat Erika in firemaking.  Going full Chris Underwood up in here.  And look, taking out a threat is a big move you can hang your hat on at the end.  Plus, it gives you publicity at arguably the most crucial time.  But the fact remains that you have to give up safety in the game to do so, and YOU SHOULD NEVER GIVE UP SAFETY IN THE GAME OF “SURVIVOR”!  The real thing to remember here, though, is that Xander is acknowledging in this scene that Erika is his biggest competition, a fact that Heather emphasizes. So it makes sense that Xander doesn’t want to give her glory, but guaranteeing her an end spot feels little better.  I can see the logic of Xander wanting to go full Underwood, but it’s flawed.  

Thankfully, even Xander wouldn’t do that.  No, he does something arguably even dumber.  You see, he sticks with his original plan to take Erika to the end with a free pass, and force Heather and Deshawn to fire making.  The flaw?  To lower Erika’s threat, he talks about how he doesn’t think her game is that threatening.  No evidence, no logic, just his opinion.  The flaw here is that the jury clearly is not buying this, and as a result, Xander appears to be either A) Out of Touch, or B) Blatantly Trying to Spin a Lie.  In either case, he’s failing miserably, and tanking his own chances as a result.  

Is there any upside to this Tribal Council?  Yes there is!  We get the awesome music from “Survivor Island of the Idols” back once again!  Hooray!

Credit where it is due, while I still despite forced fire making at Final Four, this is one of the more exciting duels.  It’s not funny, like the super-long one in “Survivor Cook Island”, nor emotional like Aubry vs. Cydney in “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, but it is an actual nail-biter of a challenge.  Heather has the early lead, but while her fire burns a bit of the rope, it doesn’t go through, giving Deshawn just enough time to win by three seconds.  Good for him!  Heather, while nice as a person is probably the least interesting person left, and the biggest finale goat, so better to have her out of the way for our finalists.  

This is all evidenced by our finalists all having good “Why I should win” summaries during the final day montage.  Xander talks about finding his advantages and using them effectively, Erika talks about building up her game from the background to the foreground, and Deshawn… Gives us the “I’ve grown so much” narrative.  Ok, Deshawn’s is a bit weaker, but he was hardly a load in this game, and has something he can at least argue.  

This point is emphasized all the more when Evvie, truly the best jury foreperson, says that everyone there has a shot at some votes, and it’s a tough choice.  And I will say, while I still prefer the old jury format, this is probably the best iteration of the new one yet.  I think it’s the fact that it’s just the jury talking, and Probst doesn’t interject into the proceedings.  It feels more pure, though again, I still prefer the questions, if only for the hilarious ones we get sometimes.  Danny TRIES to go there with his sports “Divide the game into quarters” analogy, which really doesn’t work.  

Sadly, Evvie’s pronouncement does not seem too founded, as the jury clearly favors Erika.  They RIP into Deshawn when he talks up his “social game” and direct most of their specific questions at the other two.  Xander they seem to at least give a chance to persuade them, and a few seem to be in his corner.  Tiffany and Liana seem to ask questions trying to get Xander to talk about his moves in the game, seemingly to give him a chance to prove himself to the jury.  

Here, however, Xander once again falls flat.  When asked to talk about his social game, he says “Um” about a half-dozen times before coming up with a half-baked answer that seems to satisfy pretty much no one on the jury.  Going into this, I had Xander as my number two for win potential.  Had I known that he had the Final Tribal Council skills of Amanda Kimmel (“Survivor China”), I would, of course, have had him lower.  

Unsurprisingly, Erika wins, but we get a definitive second place in Deshawn, who somehow snagged one vote despite largely being shut out of the proceedings.  Presumably Danny voted for him, but I can’t be sure.  In any case, everyone is shocked that the vote is read live, and is then followed immediately by what is effectively our reunion show.  Lights are brought up on the Tribal Council set, and the contestants are given champagne and pizza, the latter of which they must compliment, presumably on threat of losing their prize money.  I imagine the dream team just of camera, checks in one hand, lighters in the other.  

Not much to talk about at our Reunion.  The setting is cool.  They talk with most everyone.  The absence of the pre-jury is felt, though I can understand why they’re not allowed to be there.  Naseer talks about learning English from “Survivor” for the umpteenth time.  We get a lot of emotional beats from the likes of Ricard and Danny.  Plus, there’s no awkward audience participation.  Good stuff.  Loses points, though, for playing “Ancient Voices” during it, which serves only to remind us what we could have been having.  Bring back the intro, CBS!

Season 42 looks fun, though they’re clearly borrowing a lot from this season.  Understandable, but as I’ll get to later, a concern.  First, time for the old “Idol Speculation” staple: Looking back at my pre-season cast assessment and seeing just how off my predictions were!

Sydney-Wrong.  Took after Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) far more than I thought, and rightfully lasted much shorter as a result.  

Danny-Wrong.  Much more flexible and savvier than I had predicted.  

Liana-Pretty much right.  Mid-merge boot, not super memorable.  The feud with Xander was fun, though.  

Brad-Not out QUITE as early as I predicted, but still pretty much right.  

JD-Wrong.  Turns out the dude is only good if he’s got a script to work off of.  

Evvie-Wrong.  They were much better at taking control than I gave them credit for.  

Ricard-Right overall.  He was a threat to win, though somewhat less charming on screen than I expected.  

Shan-Wrong.  Much less religious, and much more game-savvy than I had anticipated.  She lasted longer than I thought, obviously.

Naseer-Right about boot time, wrong about personality.  While he DID talk about overcoming adversity as much as I thought, the dude had the charm to pull it off without getting annoying, which I did not foresee.  

Genie-Sadly right.  

Xander-Wrong.  Despite what this last episode might indicate, the dude was much more game-savvy than I gave him credit for.  

Sara-Wrong, though in fairness, I couldn’t anticipate such a dumb challenge mistake, nor that she would pay the price for it.  

Voce-Wrong.  Much more socially palatable, though oddly much shorter-lived as well.  

Deshawn-Pretty much right, though like Ricard, less charming than I would have thought.  

Tiffany-Wrong, flat out.  

Eric-Wrong.  He just wasn’t made for a faster-paced season like this.  

Heather-Wrong, though had I known tribe makeup beforehand, I would have been closer.  Being on the super-winning all the time tribe will do that.  

Erika-RIGHT!  HAHA!  CHALK UP ANOTHER CORRECT PRE-SEASON PICK FOR “IDOL SPECULATION”, Y’ALL!  

In terms of this season as a whole, the best way I can sum it up is that it succeeds in spite of itself.  For once, I don’t mean it’s a good season with a bad theme (see “Survivor David vs. Goliath”), but rather, production seemed hell-bent on trying to make this season bad, adding twist after poorly-conceived twist after poorly-implemented twist.  While I don’t have data to back this up, but if you were to chart relative enjoyment of each episode by the fanbase with the number of twists and advantages added in a given episode, I suspect you would find an inverse correlation.  To put it another way, the more random shit they crammed into an episode, the less enjoyable the episode.  

Now, I’ve made my opinions on these twist clear, and I’ve made my opinions of the number of them in the season clear.  Equally, production has made their views on these issues clear.  Thus, if production by some miracle happens to be reading this blog, I’m not going to get into a debate with you about whether or how many or what advantages should be in the game.  Clearly you’ve made up your minds, and for the foreseeable future, they’re here to stay.  So, instead, let me make a point about all these advantages and your show, one that even production will have to concede has some validity:

You.  Do.  Not.  Have.  Time.  

Leave aside whether advantages are good for the game, the fact is you simply do not have enough time for all these advantages, and still have a good game.  That inverse correlation I speculated about?  Should it exist, I would hypothesize that it is due not necessarily to the quality of the twist themselves, but to all the time they take up.  Time to introduce the twist.  Time to explain the twist.  Time for someone to find/use the twist.  Other players talking about the twist.  It just eats up precious screen time the show does not have.  As Probst himself used to say, “Ultimately, it is a SOCIAL game”  The show lives and dies on the audience connecting with the cast, and for that, they need time to get to KNOW the cast.  Time you are taking away with all these idols and advantages.  

Now, to be fair, there are two solutions to this.  Reduce the number of advantages in the game, particularly new ones that require in-depth explanation, or have longer episodes.  I would be fine with either option, but let’s be real: While “Survivor” is a consistent show from a ratings perspective, and has gone up due to renewed exposure via online streaming/quarantine, the fact is it is not the ratings juggernaut the early seasons were, and it would need those kind of numbers to justify going to 90 minutes or 2 hours as the standard episode.  I’d enjoy that, but it’s just not realistic.  Realistically, the only solution is to reduce the number of advantages in the game, and while 42 is out the window already, I can hold out hope for 43 and beyond.  Also, NEVER do the “Do or Die” again.  I’ll spot you 42, but after that?  NEVER AGAIN!

So, if time is such a big problem, why does this season still succeed?  Because they had a stellar cast, who managed to shine in SPITE of their reduced time in which to do so  This was overall a very even edit (save for some outliers like Heather being invisible most of the game, and Erika, while she had an obvious winner edit in the second half, being invisible pre-merge), where everyone got at least a bit of content, and we felt like we got to know most of the people on this season.  Credit where it’s due, production did there part as well, as this connection was aided by the “flashbacks” to real life, which I still thoroughly enjoyed.  Still, this cast succeeded DESPITE the obstacles in their path, not because of them.  Consider what would have happened if this cast had been replaced with the cast from a season that’s not great, but not terrible.  You know, just kind of “average”.  Say, for instance, the cast of “Survivor San Juan del Sur” or “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers” had played on this season.  Wouldn’t have stood out nearly as much.  And this is the disaster you court, “Survivor”.  Unless you can have a home-run cast every season, you had best consider cutting back the number of advantages.  

In terms of overall ranking, this season definitely falls in the “good” category.  The twists drag it down, but the cast and some editing choices elevate it.  I would probably put it smack-dab in the middle of my rankings, just below “Survivor The Australian Outback”.  A solid, enjoyable season, but not quite good enough to be one of the all-time greats.  That ranking is nothing to sneeze at, though, and it’s been great getting back into “Survivor” with you all!  As usual we’ll be on hiatus until next season’s cast is announced, so I look forward to hearing from you all then! 

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

“Survivor” Retrospectives: Kaoh Rong

Having gone through a controversial opinion on a season with our last blog, let’s now talk about a season that was, in and of itself, controversial. Yes, the time has come for us to discuss “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, a season that I’m confident in saying has been the most divisive amongst the fanbase since “Survivor Samoa”, at least in terms of outcome. But did it have to be that way? And does that controversy come from a good place, or a bad one? Hopefully, by dissecting this season, we can uncover the answer.

A quick word of warning before we begin: This season will be providing an objective summary of, and subjective critique of, the entire season of Kaoh Rong. This means there will be SPOILERS, as we’ll be talking about the season from the standpoint of someone who has seen the whole thing. If you are not one such person, you do not want to read the entirety of this blog. If you still wish to hear my subjective opinion on this season, without worrying about spoilers, simply scroll to the bottom of this page. There is a section labeled “Abstract”, where I give just such an opinion. For those of you who do want the details, read on.

CAST

This cast gave us Aubry Bracco. Aubry Bracco is the most perfect contestant the show has ever had.

Score: 10 out of 10

Ok, ok, let’s actually talk about the cast now. In all seriousness, Aubry is easily the biggest name to come out of the cast of this entire season. It’s actually fairly easy to detail why, as Aubry’s whole story was laid out in a microcosm during the first episode. As such, we’ll summarize Aubry’s episode 1 story arc, and use that to explain her overall story arc. Initially, Aubry was not doing so well. Heat was a big problem this season, and it hit Aubry hard in the first two days. She got severely dehydrated, and even talked about quitting. She was talked out of it by her fellow contestants (Debbie in particular), but was still on thin ice going into the immunity challenge. Said challenge involved a lot of individual phases, including diving down to retrieve paddles, pulling a heavy boat up on shore, and of course, solving a puzzle. All physically and mentally demanding tasks, yet Aubry did them all for her tribe. Sure, she had help on the puzzle and pulling the boat, but it’s still no easy feat. Plus, as Probst pointed out, Aubry retrieved all the paddles for her tribe, when the other tribes had to switch out at some point. This, on a season wherein one tribe was explicitly labeled “Brawn”. The nerdy kid schools everyone, shows hidden depths, and overcomes great adversity. This shows us Aubry in episode 1, and shows us her throughout the season. While not quite to the degree of Spencer (“Survivor Cagayan”), Aubry was plagued by bad luck, often not of her own making, yet somehow managed to not only hang on, but become a dominant strategic force as the season progressed. Through it all, she was a charming and likable narrator, with a lot of good metaphors for the game (I’m particularly fond of the “Oregon Trail” one). Admittedly, Aubry did occasionally shoot herself in the foot (note that a large part of what she had to prove in the end during that first challenge was because of her own collapse), and had some good luck as well. However, the former is rarer than people give her credit for, and the latter could be said of just about every winner. Not that Aubry wins. Oh, we’ll be getting to that, I assure you. But the perception definitely comes across, and Aubry both benefits and suffers for it in future seasons. For now, though, Aubry is the narrator and driving force of the season, coming in an unexpected package, and making her my personal favorite player of all time. Definitely a benefit to the season.

Not to say that Aubry was or is the most universally beloved of the cast. No, that honor could only go to one Tai Trang. A diminutive Vietnamese man, Tai was going to be a bit of an odd duck from the beginning. Placed on the “Beauty” tribe despite not being conventionally attractive, Tai further stood out by being a staunch vegetarian and general friend of the environment. He looked for an idol early on, but dug up entire saplings so as not to damage them in the process. When the tribe won chickens, Tai made sure they were able to roam relatively free, and even saved one (Mark) from overall execution. Further, Tai developed a close bond with Caleb Reynolds. Caleb would fall into the category of “Memorable at the time, but now forgotten”, but since he’s so closely tied in to Tai, we’ll talk about him here. Caleb was already well-known coming into the season, having previously been a player on “Big Brother”. Caleb was also well known for being fairly socially conservative, particularly when it came to homosexuality. This could easily have put him in conflict with Tai, who’s gay. However, echoing the Richard/Rudy dynamic of “Survivor Borneo”, the pair seemed to move past that obstacle, and formed a tight bond during their mutual time on the island. True, they didn’t have the same cutthroatness that Richard and Rudy had, but they made up for it with more heart than the former pair. True, Rudy did come to accept Richard, sexuality and all, but Caleb was even willing to let Tai playfully kiss him, the sort of open embrace I’m not sure Rudy would ever have been capable of. That helped Caleb and Tai stand out, and made everyone like them all the more. We’ll have to save the thoughts on Caleb (and why he’s now largely forgotten) for the “Twist” section as a lot of it relates to the manner of his exit. Getting back to Tai, though, the fact is we’d really never seen anyone quite like Tai, and he was nothing if not unapologetically himself. Many of his stances, particularly regarding the chickens, should have got him voted out. We’d seen it in previous seasons (see Kappenberg, Kimmi). Yet, thanks in part to avoiding early Tribal Councils, Tai survived, and came to be accepted, quirks and all. Always an uplifting story, and one that made Tai, for my part, a rightly beloved part of the season.

If you were to ask about the biggest character of the season, and another unapologetic personality, one could only look to Debbie Wanner. How to describe Debbie? I’m not sure there’s a way, since even the show couldn’t. Debbie had a running gag, having listed off her many careers in the first episode, of having her career change in every chyron for every interview she gave. They even had it change MID-INTERVIEW once, when she mentioned a career that she had previously forgotten. Debbie was also a cheerleader, though, and so could often be heard yelling such gems as “We have the biggest frontal lobes!” in the background of scenes, even if she wasn’t the focus. Debbie was there, and much like Tai, always herself. If someone makes it deep, this is endearing. Debbie did make it deep, and so she is endearing.

But for all this talk, we’ve yet to actually talk about our winner of the season. Michele Fitzgerald falls into the odd category of “Memorable for Not Being Memorable”, kind of similar to Purple Kelly from “Survivor Nicaragua”. Michele had her moments, to be sure. A few key challenge victories, and some snarky comments helped keep her in the public eye. Yet, it’s the fact that she won, up against steep competition, that people remember her for. In my opinion, despite this relative lack of screentime, Michele is still a good addition to the season. She’s not the main draw, but what she does bring is good, and you see enough of her game to make her a solid winner in her own right. Of course, she doesn’t exist in a vacuum, but we’ll talk about THAT controversy in the “Overall” section. For now, Michele may not be the biggest character to come out of the season, but she’s certainly a sound player.

Rounding out our players who are still memorable to this day would be Cydney Gillon. Our only “Brawn” representative in this category, Cydney actually started out a bit low-key. Despite promising confrontation and drama (she mentioned having “split personalities” in her cast bio), she got herself into the majority alliance on her tribe and just kind of sat there. We saw her make a few sub alliances, and play both sides of the fence, so we knew she was a player, but she didn’t really come into her own until after the merge. Cydney was once again in a solid majority there, but due to some miscommunication and suspicion, Cydney flipped on her alliance to become what was shown as a power couple with the aforementioned Aubry, effectively running the game from that point on. What works best about Cydney for me is that she defies expectations. You hear “brawn” as a designation, and you think of them as being the “dumb jocks”, the effective opposite of a “brain”. And yes, Cydney definitely has physical skills, but what really made her stand out was her social and strategic prowess. She may not have made the smartest move in flipping the game when she did, but damn if she didn’t do a good job of keeping control once she had it. A fascinating arc, meaning all the memorable characters from this season are still memorable for a good reason.

Moving on to the players who were remembered at the time, but now seem to be lost to “Survivor” history as a whole, this is where the bulk of the “Brawn” tribe ends up. Chief amongst these would be our villains for the season, Scot Pollard and Kyle Jason, who went by his last name. Scot and Jason were the aforementioned dominant alliance on the “Brawn” tribe, and, to put it mildly, were not the nicest people around. Bossy, arrogant, and hypocritical, the pair effectively used their might as a reason to keep them around, and felt they could behave however they wanted. Post-merge, this led to a lot of camp sabotage once it was clear they were no longer in the majority, but pre-merge, this led to the bullying of one Alecia Holden. Alecia was a bit of an oddity on the “Brawn” tribe, having no obvious physical strength, and making few contributions to anything survival-wise or challenge-wise. Despite this, she continued to stand up for herself, and even survived a few votes (admittedly mostly due to other members of her tribe self-destructing, but survived nonetheless). I have to admire her for refusing to kowtow even in the face of scathing attacks, even if she wasn’t my favorite, and brought little to the table besides. Our first boot is really not memorable as first boots go, so rounding out our “Brawn” tribe is Jennifer Lanzetti, a Ming-Na Wen lookalike who did little in the game, but did have to have a bug floated out of her ear, and stood up during her exit Tribal Council to protest the way the vote seemed to be headed. Not the biggest character, but deserves some respect for being willing to shake things up. That said, I can’t fault most of these players for being forgotten. They made for some interesting pre-merge drama, but even Scot and Jason, the only two to make it deep, were, well, villains, and so not the most pleasant. I will say it’s a bit of a shame that Jason has fallen by the wayside, since he does seem to be open to criticism and change in post-game interviews, and could make for a decently interesting returnee.

In contrast to the “Brawn” tribe, there’s really only one person each from the “Brains” and the “Beauty” that’s been forgotten post-season. From the “Brains”, we get our pre-merge “Villain” of Peter Baggenstos. I say “villain” because while Peter was portrayed negatively, he didn’t really do much that was evil. Apart from conspiring to betray Aubry, this Barack Obama look-alike had sort of a mini-Spencer arc from “Survivor Cagayan” in and of that everything he tried to do blew up in his face. He had no traction, and was unceremoniously voted out pre-merge. He helped keep that part of the game interesting, but as he had no impact beyond that, I can’t fault his being forgotten. More upsetting is the vanishing of Julia Sokolowski of the “Beauty” tribe. Julia was a teenager playing “Survivor”, at this point a rarity but no unheard of. What separated Julia from previous teenage players, however, was her skill at the game. She successfully lied about her age, was considered a “threat” by the other big threats, and even managed to sneak in an immunity win at a crucial time. Maybe not as huge in the character department, but for such a youngster, that’s some serious skill! It’s a real crime that she hasn’t been invited back at this point.

This begs the question, though: Why were these people forgotten? Well, apart from there being such stiff competition (I really can’t overemphasize how big Aubry, Michele, Tai, Cydney, and Debbie are), the big problem will actually come up in the “Overall” section. As I’ve hinted at, there’s a controversy about this season we’ll talk about there, and that controversy kind of colored people’s perception of the season as a whole. Suffice to say, it was a negative effect, and people don’t like negativity (shocking, I know). Given that, it’s frankly astonishing we’ve had as many returnees as we’ve had, and speaks to the strength of the cast as a whole. True, we got a few duds, but we also got a good helping of being characters and strategists, most of whom made it fairly deep. Maybe not the best cast the show has ever had, but an above-average one to be sure.

Score: 8 out of 10.

CHALLENGES

Kaoh Rong continued the trend of newbie seasons not really caring about getting creative or innovative with the challenges at all. Not to say that the challenges were boring or uninteresting. Indeed, one thing I will credit this season with is making the individual challenges as big and epic as the tribal challenges. There was really no weak link, but few challenges from this season went on to become staples in later seasons, but the challenges are not this season’s main selling point. They hold their own, but do little more than that. I will make this score slightly higher than this summary might seem, for reasons that will become clear shortly in the “twist” section.

Score: 7 out of 10.

TWISTS

As I’ve hinted at before, the theme this time around was a rehash of “Survivor Cagayan”. This was “Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty 2”, and on paper, this seems like a very poor choice. However good Kaoh Rong ended up being, it was going to be compared to “Survivor Cagayan”, which was and is widely considered one of the best seasons ever, and of the “modern” era in particular. It’s sort of the same pitfall “Survivor Caramoan” had by being “Fans vs. Favorites 2”: However good you are, you most likely will be looked down upon for not being as good as the first. It’s true that Kaoh Rong does not live up to the standards of “Survivor Cagayan”, but oddly this choice doesn’t have as much of an impact as one might think. The theme is brought up less than it was on “Survivor Cagayan”, allowing the cast of Kaoh Rong to stand more on their own merits, and it is interesting to see the same twist play out differently with different casts. For instance, the “Brains” were the disaster tribe on “Survivor Cagayan”, while for Kaoh Rong, the disaster tribe were the “Brawn”. Also, if you HAVE to divide three tribes by some theme, “Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty” feels more natural a divide than any other one the show has tried, so I can’t fault them too much.

Our announced pre-season gimmick this time around was the essential return of the “Super idol”, which could be played after the votes were read. Unlike previous ones, however, it wasn’t just one idol to be found. Instead, individual hidden immunity idols could be locked together to form a super idol, thus necessitating cooperative play. I do like the increased emphasis on social play as facilitated by this twist, but that’s really about it. Super idols, as the name would imply, are just too overpowered, and while they ultimately didn’t factor in too much to this season, it’s more an absence of bad than the presence of good with this twist. Plus, if someone had managed to get their hands on two hidden immunity idols, they would have had basically a free super idol with no social play needed, a possibility too horrible to consider.

The other pre-season gimmick, though far less prevalent and less hyped, was the presence of choices at challenges. I’m not just talking about choosing between types of reward, though there was a certain amount of that in the season as well. Starting with the first immunity challenge, and used a few times throughout, people could choose how they wanted to do the challenge. For example, after a certain race, one could choose to either solve a puzzle or complete a balance portion. This was a brilliant move with the only flaw being that it wasn’t utilized more throughout the season. When it did show up, it led to greater strategizing regarding the challenges, and fun dilemmas you could debate with fellow fans. The downside? None I can think of.

Episode one actually played out in a pretty straightforward manner, after our usual “Grab supplies off the boat” opener, with our first blindside coming in episode two. The Brawn tribe had an initial majority of four, being Cydney, Jennifer, Jason, and Scot. However, when Jennifer got caught trying to form a women’s alliance against Jason and Scot, the tables were turned on her, despite Jennifer not ultimately going through with the plan. This also was our first hint at the beauty of Cydney’s game, since she used the opportunity to get close to Alecia, and then get Jason and Scot to grab the idol from Alecia, despite Alecia having found the clue first. The Brains tribe followed a similar blindside pattern in Episode three. The majority had originally been the pairs of Peter and Liz, plus Aubry and Neal, joining up against Debbie and Joe, the latter of whom is really only notable for being the second-oldest person to ever play, behind Rudy Boesch of “Survivor Borneo”. This plan got derailed when Peter and Liz planned to split the vote to blindside Aubry. Debbie, however, got wind of the plan, informed Aubry and Neal, and used that information to flip the vote against Liz, explaining why she didn’t get mentioned earlier. While none of these blindsides are earth-shattering, they did set the stage for the majority alliance never being quite safe this season, which is always good in terms of mystery and unpredictability. Maybe not spectacular, but still a solid start to the season, setting up for good things to come.

Episode four is infamous, but not for any blindsides. Rather than market the challenge choices pre-season, one thing the show DID hype up was a record number of medical evacuations, the first of which occurred in this episode. Players competed in a challenge that involved digging in the sand. The trouble was, they had the hottest weather yet, and the challenge took longer than expected, leading to three players (one from each tribe) getting heat stroke. Debbie got it for the Brains, and Cydney for the Brawn, but it was Caleb, so determined to get his tribe even a second-place finish, who pushed himself too far and needed to be evacuated, the first beauty loss. Frankly, a painful thing to watch, and not helped by the lackluster back-half of the episode. Alecia was predictably booted, and while I respect her refusal to hold Tribal Council immediately after the challenge, as suggested by Jason, it did lead to a forgettable exit. This is also pretty much the only reason Caleb was remembered, as he brought little else to the season. He was determined, and wanted his second chance. He got it, and so now there’s no real further need for him in “Survivor”.

The usual tribe swap comes in episode 5, though with an odd number of people, we have someone getting left out. That someone was Julia, who got sent to live at the Brawn camp, renamed “Exile Island”, to rejoin the losing tribe later. While unplanned, this did make the shake-up more memorable than most of the recent tribe swaps, and gave us a good chance to see the inner strength of Julia, which was always a plus. Chan Loh (the former Brains tribe), had a 2-2-2 split of all original tribes, while Gondol (the former Beauty tribe) had 3-2-1 in Brains, Beauty, and Brawn. The former never went to Tribal Council, so the only thing of note there was that this was where Michele and Cydney low-key aligned themselves, and where Michele’s most snarky confessionals come from, as her fellow “Beauty” Nick was more than a little condescending to her. The latter was a little more complicated, however. As one would expect, Aubry, Peter, and Joe of the Brains agreed to work with Scot of the Brawn to get rid of a Beauty, in this case the heretofore unmentioned Anna Khait. However, Scot bonded with Tai, the other Beauty on the tribe, and once he found out that Tai had the Beauty idol, informed him of Jason’s idol, forming a Power Trio despite being on opposite tribes. When Julia returned to Gondol in episode six, this led to Scot wanting to turn the tables on the Brains. This was done through manipulation on Julia and Tai’s part, whispering to Aubry about Peter’s planned insurrection for the blindside of Liz a few episodes back. As Aubry had never trusted Peter since then, and Joe was able to get out of Peter that he had made these plans, Aubry went along with the plan, but did so in a way that just plain wasn’t smart. She made her decision AT Tribal Council. Normally not a major misstep, the issue here is that Aubry initially voted for Julia, then crossed out her name and wrote Peter, such that Julia knew she had voted against her. Unsurprisingly, this would sully their relationship for the rest of the game, and put Aubry in hot water in the immediate future. For all that it’s painful to watch as an Aubry fan, it must be said that this is one of the more memorable moments of the season, and again, prevents us from having a solid majority that just steamrolls the entire game through.

Then, the merge, and to pile on the “Royally Screwed”, we get our second evacuation of the season. Neal has a bad enough infection to need to be sent away, taking with him the Brains’ idol, and thus giving the former Brawn and Beauty complete control. While this is probably the least emotional of the medical evacuations, it’s probably the one that hurts the most, because it makes the entire merge feel pointless. We’re setting up dynamics already established by previous episodes, ending with no actual vote out, but the elimination of the player with the most ability to shake things up. This should set up for a predictable post-merge. Thankfully, this is Kaoh Rong, where the majority never stays the majority for very long. In the next episode, Cydney gets paranoid about a men’s alliance, and so counters with an alliance of the remaining women+Joe, leading to a blindside of Nick. I can’t overstate how awesome this move is. While it feels semi-foreshadowed, as we had seen Cydney make side deals before, it still shakes things up in an unexpected way, and the cocky and arrogant are usurped by the smart and likable, which is always nice to see (take note “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”). A brilliant move that breathes new life into the post-merge.

Say it with me now: This is Kaoh Rong, so the majority doesn’t last. With Scot, Tai, and Jason on the outs, they start sabotaging the camp, confident in the protection of their super idol. Julia starts playing both sides, with Aubry being the main one to take notice. Unfortunately with Julia immune in the next episode, and wanting to flush the idols, a new target is needed. Debbie is the decided victim, due to being a bit too dictatorial in her conversations with the alliance. Again, a good shakeup, though not as good a move, as it give a threesome with inordinate power for their size even more power. Plus, there’s a super idol to flush. Granted, the alliance can’t possibly know about that (Scot and Jason had shown off the idols at Tribal Council, but did not mention the Super Idol twist), but still, objectively a bad move in that regard.

Our next reward challenge brings a twist, and I’m not just talking about the reward choice again. The extra-vote advantage is back from “Survivor Worlds Apart”, won in this case by Tai. Not a bad twist to bring back, but unneeded in this environment. What IS needed is another power dynamic shakeup. With seven people left, and no idols flushed, plus the Super Idol, Scot, Jason, Julia, and Tai seem set to control the rest of the game. Aubry, however, has other plans. Noting that Scot and Jason in particular come across as bullies, Aubry talks to Tai and gets him to side with herself, Cydney, Michele, and Joe. Thus, when Scot gets the majority of votes, Tai refuses to join up and make the Super Idol, leading to Scot’s elimination with the idol in his pocket. If you’re wondering why Cydney’s women’s alliance wasn’t the greatest move of the season, it’s only because this flip was. Not only were the twists of the season beaten, they were beaten purely though social manipulation, the core of what “Survivor” is about. Plus, it’s always nice to see the villains and bullies get so thoroughly beaten in such an ironic way.

The next two votes actually remain fairly predictable, in a rarity for the season. Michele does agree to vote out Julia, despite being allied with her, and Tai wastes his extra vote against Michele, but really not much happens until the final five. This comes in the form of our third medical evacuation, and probably the most pathetic yet. Joe, going on a reward, ate too much red meat, got his colon blocked, and needed to be evacuated. Rough to see, and yet another obstacle going into the finals.

Good manipulation of Cydney by Aubry puts Michele on the chopping block. When Michele wins immunity, and gets Cydney back on her side, Aubry uses her connection with Tai to get it to fire making, which she wins. An exciting start to the finale, and a good demonstration of why, despite being an excellent strategist, Cydney still had some flaws in her game. It was clear from their chatter that the jury HATED her, and wanted her to lose. In a shock to the audience, but not, for some reason, the players, we don’t have a final two, despite the numbers being right for one. I guess the show didn’t want to copy “Survivor Cagayan” too much. Instead, our final three challenge lets a player eliminate a juror of their choosing. They get immediately sequestered, and get no vote at Final Tribal Council. This twist gets a lot of hate, but on paper, I actually like it. It can be a good safety net, and requires some knowledge of both self and others to use properly. It’s never come back, probably because of its use this season, but I think it could actually have some potential. At the very least, it would cut down on the massive juries we’re having to deal with nowadays. That said, its use here does reek of both desperation and cruelty. It’s become obvious at this point that production wants Aubry to win, and it feels like they put in this twist just to ensure that she made finals. On top of that, Michele wins the advantage and uses it against Neal. A wise choice, given that Neal was a solid Aubry vote, and gave Michele a very vindictive speech upon leaving, but it felt cruel to Neal. I mean, the guy got to cast one vote the entire season, made the merge, and doesn’t even get to hang around that long? That feels wrong.

Not so much a “twist”, but it is worth noting that this season brought back closing speeches by our finalists, probably in an attempt to help them side with Aubry. It doesn’t work, as our real twist comes in the form of Michele winning 5-2. Why? Well, join me in the next section, as we’ll discuss it.

For now, though, let us summarize the overall twists of the season. Kaoh Rong is a rarity in the 30’s in and of that there’s very few twists from production, but a bunch implemented by the players. This, I think, is to the season’s advantage. It helps the season stand out, while still maintaining unpredictability, and feels very “real” to the audience, for want of a better term. Granted, pretty much every production twist at best had no impact, but with cast twists this good, less is more. Most every episode had something exciting in it, and good triumphed in the end, and so we get what is probably the strongest overall category of the season.

Score: 9 out of 10.

OVERALL

On the aesthetic side of things, the show really shot itself in the foot by leaning too heavily into the traditional architecture of Cambodia during the previous season. This one felt much more generic by comparison, and just looking at it, you couldn’t tell it from one of many other seasons. It’s easy to forget that it IS in Cambodia at times. I’ll give credit that we got nice popping colors (the buff designs are some of my all-time favorites), but the season just doesn’t seem to have a cohesive theme, and when it does try, it’s reused from another, better season.

But of course, we’re all here to talk about the big flaw in the season. Forgive me for repeating myself from the last blog, but Kaoh Rong is another season where the whole is not equal to the sum of its parts. Most every element in Kaoh Rong is at least ok, and the gameplay this season is some of the best we’ve ever had. There was a great story here, so why didn’t it equate to a great season? The answer, my friends, is in the edit.

As I said, there’s a great story to be told for this season, but it’s not the one the editors were interested in telling us. Rather than the story of Michele Fitzgerald, Social Queen, they wanted to emphasize Aubry Bracco, Robbed Goddess. As an Aubry fan, I’m not COMPLAINING, per se, about her being presented positively, but doing so when she doesn’t win sets the season up for failure. Look at it this way: Kaoh Rong had a very likable final four. Possibly the most likable final four the show has ever had. There was pretty much no outcome viewers would not find satisfying. Yet you managed to find one! I’m not sure that was possible! While it would be unfair to say Michele was INVISIBLE, Aubry was clearly the dominating force of the season. Again, not a dealbreaker on a good season, but you need to show why that dominating force lost. What was their fatal flaw that kept them from winning in the end? Weird though it is to say, the show needed to take a cue from “Survivor All-Stars”. On that season, we had another dominating force in Boston Rob who ended up losing. People can argue about whether or not Rob should have won, but even the most ardent Boston Rob fans can still see the flaws in his game that led to his loss. Even if you don’t agree with the outcome, you still understand why it happened.

This is not the case with Kaoh Rong. Aubry’s flaws, if shown at all, were very much downplayed, to the point where they weren’t talked about much beyond the episode they appeared in. Rather than a brilliant, but flawed, strategist, Aubry got presented as the greatest thing since sliced bread. Even her enemies were shown as liking her, with Scot and Jason complimenting her game at Tribal Council in what turned out to be Scot’s boot. From what we, the audience, saw, Aubry had most of the jury (save Julia and Debbie) wrapped around her finger, guaranteed to win pretty much no matter who she was up against. Michele? She played well, certainly, and was known to be liked, but the common consensus at the time was that Michele’s win was predicated on Aubry being voted out. Cydney and Tai had both had social gaffes, to the point where Michele was commonly seen as more likable than them, but Aubry? Again, apart from Julia and Debbie, we were never shown any dislike of Aubry by the jury, or even why the rest of the jury’s liking of Michele was greater than their liking of Aubry. Put simply, the editors tried to make their own story out of the season, instead of the actual story of the season, and it left us feeling wanting.

Case in point, what should have been a well-received season led to one of the biggest blowups in the fan community since the outcome of “Survivor Samoa”. If “Survivor” were still a cultural touchstone, there would have been rioting in the streets. The Aubry fans argued loudly for her win, leading Michele fans to fire back in anger. There was hatred and nastiness on both sides. It was a rough time to be a fan.

In the end, that is the tragedy and the failure of Kaoh Rong. It was never going to be perfect. No season is. But it could easily have been one of the greats. Instead, by trying to make the season that pleased themselves, production made a season that pleased no one else. The good elements do still shine through, but the damage is done by this point.

Score: 30 out of 40.

ABSTRACT

“Survivor Kaoh Rong” is definitely a necessary season if you’re planning to view future seasons. It has a lot of impact, both in returnees and twists, down the road. “Survivor Kaoh Rong” feels like a very back-to-basics season, with most of the best elements springing forth from the cast themselves, rather than production. That said, when production DOES stick its hand in the show, it always makes it worse, or at best has no impact. This season is definitely worth a watch, but be prepared to be disappointed by what could have been.

-Matt

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Game Changers” Episode 8: Yet Another Twist

Seems that we now can’t even have ONE episode to let the status quo be status quo. No, now we have to have a twist EVERY SINGLE EPISODE! And I’m not talking about the blindside, I’m talking about the producer-implemented twist. An extra vote just wasn’t enough for you, huh? You HAD to go and add the vote steal. You’re just bound and determined for someone to play it correctly, right?

Ah, I kid, I kid. True, this episode was not the stuff of “Survivor” legend, but especially compared to the borefest that was the last double-length episode, it did a decent job. Let’s take a look and see what went right, as well as what went wrong.

Gloating is the order of the night back at the new Maku Maku camp, which I’ve since come to realize IS in fact a combination name of “Mana” and “Nuku”, but since the doubling of the term was enough to fool me, I shall spare it the ire of other combination names. Debbie, naturally is a big offender, stating to confessional that the majority six of herself, Tai, Sarah, Troyzan, Brad, and Sierra will stick together, confirming for us that there is not a line in the sand, but, as we get for the episode title, “A Line in the Concrete”. Now, this episode title led many, including myself, to believe that we were in for a predictable episode of the majority alliance sticking together, but of course this was not the case. And the fact that the quote, as it turned out, came from Debbie should have clued everyone into that fact. I’m not saying that Debbie is out of touch with reality, but hyperbole on “Survivor” should be taken with a grain of salt, and in Debbie’s case, it should be taken with an entire saltshaker.

Our past two episodes with someone on the outs (Hali’s vote-off having gotten no after-Tribal breakdown) gave us arguably two of the best handlings of post-Tribal blindsides from Aubry and Varner. Will Andrea continue this trend, or will she ask Zeke to explain himself, only then to interrupt his explanations and get annoyed with him? Given the specificity, you can guess which way it goes. Zeke, understandably, says that while he didn’t vote with the majority himself, he’s ok to go with them to save his own skin, and because he no longer trusts Andrea. A wise move. While it was foolish for him to mistrust Andrea in the first place, now that ship has pretty much sailed, and Zeke has little choice but to jump on the winning train.

Remember Debbie’s concrete line? Yeah, it seems Sarah is an alchemist, and has transmuted that concrete into sand, stating to both herself and Zeke that while now might not be the right time, she’s not bonded to that majority alliance, and will flip if she feels it necessary. I hope you enjoyed that confessional, because you’re going to be hearing about it at regular intervals throughout the episode!

Today’s reward challenge is boring, reused, boring, basic, boring, a team challenge, and did I mention it’s boring? As such, we will not talk about it, but we will talk about several things around it. First and foremost, that location! I’m normally not one to gush at pretty nature shots on “Survivor”, but every once in a while, they hit you with a good one. That arial shot of the challenge, wherein we saw it nestled between bits of coral reef, was breathtaking, at least for me. Coherence be damned, I’d have liked it if the entire challenge had been filmed from that angle. Second, Michaela. With 11 people left, and our contestants divided into teams of five, one person must sit out with no shot at reward, and that person ends up being Michaela. Demonstrating the social poise and grace she is known for, Michaela explains that she understands where people are coming from, and quietly cheers for Cirie. Of course not, she lets everyone within a 50-mile radius know that they did a stupid again. As Michaela says, I’m sure everyone has figured out that the teams were picked based on alliances, rather than challenge ability, but I do have to ask, why HAVEN’T people been commenting on Michaela’s challenge ability? It’s not like she’s been quiet about it. Admittedly, her boasting could be seen as just that, since she hasn’t had those spectacular victories we saw from her on “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”, but she’s had some moments this season as well, and we’ve SEEN Zeke confirming her challenge prowess. Clearly, someone should be recognizing her ability. Oh, and we also see a tube labeled “secret advantage” tied to one of the legs of her bench. In case you didn’t see it, don’t worry, we’ll cut back to it about five or six times before the challenge is over. I’m sure people will give Michaela a hard time for not noticing it, but I would remind you that she’s sitting on the bench itself, and generally disinclined to look at its legs. Maybe if she’d seen it from far away, but even with my HDtv, I could barely make it out in the long shots. If you didn’t KNOW it was there, it would be easy to pass over it by mistake. Prost will also make a big deal out of the fact that Michaela still cheers for some people despite her not getting picked for a team, which he makes out to be a real shock. Gee, I don’t know, Probst, maybe it just means that Michaela is a DECENT HUMAN BEING?! EVER CONSIDER THAT?

It seems this challenge was specifically designed to show how the remaining few who could be described as “fan favorites” such at challenges. Once again, the balance beam is our culprit. Several people have trouble with it, but it’s Zeke and Aubry who most openly suck initially, each losing the lead for their team. Tai also had difficulty, but at least Tai made it across in one go, whereas both Zeke and Aubry take multiple tries. But, of course, our real story is Cirie, who can’t even make it up onto the platform to cross the beam unaided. I’m sure many would be inclined to say that this is a real mark against Cirie, but like with Michaela and the secret advantage, I can’t be too hard on her. This isn’t like some pool lip that’s an inch or two above the water, this was clearly at least a 6-inch jump one had to make, and I doubt Cirie could touch the bottom to give her a lift. Still, while Cirie may have slimmed down and toned up prior to this season, she’s not a challenge force, meaning her side loses. But wait! Probst can make a forced moment out of this, providing unnecessary commentary for Cirie crossing the beam, just to prove she could, with everybody on her team (and even, in the end, some from the other teams) coming to help her up. For all my snark, it is actually a really sweet moment, mainly because you can tell from the look on Cirie’s face that this is something she needed to prove, and would have done without Probst’s gloating. It’s also nice how everyone came together in support of Cirie. In a game that can be really cutthroat, it’s nice to see some genuine tenderness. That being said, there are other moments this season with a similar impact, and the fact that Probst felt the need to narrate the moment, PLUS his seeming goading of Cirie to do so, makes the moment feel at least somewhat manufactured. The good parts of it shine through, but this is one situation where the host with the most should have been the host with the least. At least he has the decency to call in a boat rather than force everyone to swim back.

Evidently Sarah has better eyesight than I do, as she spots the secret advantage, citing her cop observance skills as the basis for this. I’m not one to go for forced confessionals on how one’s occupation relates to the game, but this one actually seems apt. It’s an area where being a cop might actually be an advantage. Point being, it doesn’t surprise me very much at all that Sarah noticed it. What DOES surprise me is no one NOTICING Sarah untying the advantage. I mean, this isn’t even like finding an idol at a challenge, where subtlety is the order of the day, she had to swim out of her way to get there, was obviously doing something for several seconds while on there. And don’t tell me she was helping Michaela. Michaela was CLEARLY off the platform by the time Sarah got there. Maybe this season really IS full of idiots.

After our standard comforting of Cirie, Sarah unwraps her advantage, finding out that it’s a vote steal. As I’ve already discussed both my thoughts on the implementing of this advantage (to recap: it reeks of desperation, but isn’t all that bad all things considered) and of the standard “Sarah is tied to no alliance” confessional, I see no need to dwell on this. Therefore, we head on over to our reward picnic via sea plane, where everyone pigs out on a variety of foods, including the meme-worthy coleslaw for Aubry, as Brad expounds in confessional on what everyone already knew: that he picked his team specifically so as to include part of, but not all of, his alliance, so that he had eyes and ears on both teams. Actually a good strategy, but I must point out the folly of not taking Sarah with you, Brad. It’s obvious from last episode that everyone in your alliance knows that Sarah is on the outs, so you wanted her to be on a team with either yourself or Sierra such that one of the leaders could keep her in the fold. Troyzan and Tai may be loyal to the alliance, but persuasive they ain’t. Can’t fault the concept, though.

Talk turns to the Andrea/Zeke feud, with Andrea once again getting over-the-top angry with Zeke. Look, Andrea, I completely get the emotion, but as someone with more than a basic understanding of strategy, you should know that wearing your heart on your sleeve is a bad idea. Sierra takes this time to mock Andrea in particular, and the minority in general, over their lack of cohesiveness. Fair enough for her to do, if a bit mean spirited. But then Sierra goes on to demonstrate her LACK of knowledge of how “Survivor” works, by stating in confessional that this makes her alliance invincible. Anyone with half a brain should realize that a blindside for them is now planned.

Off to our immunity challenge, which is also reused, but not as bad. Hailing originally from “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, this particular version of the challenge comes courtesy of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”. Players will take letters, spelling “Immunity”, and place them on a wobbly board, while they back away, balancing the board with a rope. First person to spell “Immunity” and get back to the start, wins. As with most reused challenges, it cannot get my seal of approval, but at least it wasn’t an overdone one, and fairly difficult. Sadly, this is also possibly the leas-exciting version of this challenge. A lot of the appeal comes from the back-and-forth this challenge can bring. Do not forget Cydney’s come from behind victory on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”.

We also, sadly, have no Joe Del Campo (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”) to hilariously misspell “Immunity”, though Tai tries valiantly to take his place, being unable to even spell the word on his starting barrel. Actually, I thought Tai was just trying to stack his letters backwards first, making them easier to grab when doing the rest of the challenge, but no, seems he just had difficulty spelling the word. As I said, we have our two frontrunners who rule the challenge, these being Andrea and Troyzan. The former winning would send plans into chaos, making for an exciting pre-Tribal experience. The latter winning would have no impact whatsover. Guess who wins?

Plans are quickly set in place for Andrea’s ouster, with Debbie, Brad, and Sierra coming together to talk about who to vote out. It seems Michaela cannot escape the “annoying” stigma, even with Cirie’s help, as she is once again put up as a target. Debbie suggests her, as she can’t stand her any longer, but Brad correctly points out that Andrea is the biggest threat. I suppose I could see her as being the biggest threat based on a combination of both smarts and challenge performance, but I’d argue that Aubry or Cirie is a bigger threat. Still, I’d imagine peace at camp is also a factor, and I can’t argue with Debbie’s response. Deferring to Brad’s argument, she agrees to go along with what the camp wants. Can’t say I fault that move. It might even lead some to believe that Debbie has actually LEARNED from her experience on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”. As we’ll see in a few scenes, you would be sorely mistaken.

For now, the rest of the alliance convenes to go over the plan. Sarah, however, is miffed that she was the last one to know about all this, and correctly points out that it probably indicates that she’s on the bottom of the alliance. Again, good observation skills and reasoning! After that abysmal performance at the merge on “Survivor Cagayan”, I’m not sure I will ever be fully on board the Sarah-train, but she’s trying her hardest this episode. Of course, she also mistakenly says her error on “Survivor Cagayan” was taking the easy path, when it was actually her being stubborn and unwilling to compromise that did her in, but hey, desire for change is at least something.

Put out by the alliance’s treatment of her, Sarah talks first to Zeke and then Andrea about making a move. Zeke salivates at the thought, and Andrea seems on board as well. Both are wary about working with the other, as one would expect, but say they’re willing to temporarily trust one another for the sake of getting further, which is how it should be. I, however, don’t buy this flip for one moment. They’ve been building it up too much, and it seems like misdirection. On top of that, while the current majority alliance has a clear target in Andrea, we haven’t heard of a target from the other side. We’ve heard whispers of Sierra’s name, but nothing concrete, and if we don’t have that, I don’t buy a flip.

It’s tough to say whether or not Sarah should flip, since there’s no target yet given within the majority, and therefore no obvious upsides or downsides to the targeting. I agree with Sarah’s assessment that she’s on the outs with the majority alliance, and therefore her playing the swing vote would probably be her smartest game. This would imply that flipping, regardless of target, is a good idea, since the numbers say that if she doesn’t do it now, it would be difficult to stop the Pagonging. However, with just over half the people left, plus her steal-a-vote advantage, Sarah can wait at least one more Tribal Council before making her move, and flipping can make you a target. Plus, there’s always the “gather the disgruntled from the majority alliance plus those on the outside” gambit, and so I think Sarah sticking with her side is probably the right move.

After a conversation with Sierra, in which Sierra promises Sarah final three with herself and Debbie, Sarah seems to be reconsidering it as well. The promise seemed kind of half-assed to me, but it is another factor to think about.

Remember all that goodwill about Debbie seeming to learn from her game the last time? Yeah, take that all away. Cockiness has once again gotten the better of Debbie, and she has flown too close to the sun. And by “the sun”, I of course mean our beloved fan-favorite Aubry. Yes, of all the pre-game relationships that seemed the most interesting, and most cringe-worthy, the Debbie/Aubry relationship topped the bunch. This is mostly due to the fact that this was the only relationship that seemed to have open tension, though even then, the tension was mostly one-sided. Debbie was understandably still somewhat upset about Aubry blindsiding her, while Aubry seemed indifferent to Debbie, stating only that she could easily tell when Debbie was lying to her. Debbie, though she said she might try and play nice with Aubry, had no intention of seriously working with her. And for all Debbie’s protestations that she doesn’t trust Aubry, given that she wanted to use Aubry as a number down the road, that doesn’t seem likely to me. I find it more likely that Debbie, having done a good job of manipulating pretty much everyone else, decides to try in on her perceived greatest foe not named Brad Culpepper. To Debbie’s credit, she actually comes up with a pretty good lie. She feeds Aubry the party line of Michaela as the decoy vote, but also feeds her a bit about how Sarah doesn’t trust her. If it works, this last bit is particularly useful, since Sarah is the swing vote here, and getting the alliance to mistrust her would be a stroke of genius.

Of course, this assumes that it works. Given that our next scene is Aubry telling everyone in her alliance about how much of a liar Debbie is, going so far as to flip the bird in double for her (not cool, Aubry!), I think it’s safe to say that Aubry’s claim of being able to easily tell when Debbie’s lying holds more water. Now, had Aubry confined herself to talking to her alliance, Debbie might still have been safe, but Aubry also confides this to Sarah, who is now back to saying she wants to flip. Seriously, this woman changes whichever way the wind blows. One thing makes it seem like she’s on the outs? Flipping on the alliance! One conversation indicating she’s in the final three? Back with the alliance!

Debbie does emerge as a coherent target, though, and up against Andrea, I still say that sticking with the majority is right for Sarah. True, Debbie is fairly smart, and hides it easier than Andrea, but Andrea is overall the bigger threat. Moreover, if you’re going to move against the alliance, you want to take out one of the main power players. Were the target Sierra or Brad, I could get behind a Sarah flip. While Debbie is clearly one of the decision makers, what she doesn’t have that Sierra and Brad do is connections. This alliance runs across a few tribal lines, and it’s clear that what’s holding it together is Sierra and Brad. Debbie helps make the decisions, but no one’s staying in the alliance because of Debbie. Take one of the other two out, and they crumble. Fail to do so, and you’ve still got a strong foursome with three idols between them. Granted, Sarah doesn’t know about that, but on “Survivor” it’s probably safe to assume they have at least one idol. Better to stick with the surefire thing, especially with the steal a vote advantage to help you out.

While I can’t say that tonight’s Tribal Council is bad, I can say that it’s forgettable. Not that every Tribal needs a standout moment, but they help. This one just felt like a lot of grandstanding, with the odd ironic quip from Debbie to lighten the mood.

From my perspective, we don’t even have that great of misdirection. I just can’t see anyone in their right mind keeping Andrea over Debbie.

I always suspected Sarah was crazy. Debbie goes home, and I’m an odd combination of both sorry and not sorry. Debbie is definitely a fun character, but like sugar, too much of it can kill you. In that sense, I’m happy. We got just the right amount of Debbie, both good and bad. That being said, our alternate target was Andrea, and while she’s an ok strategist, she’s just BORING. Compared to who we could have gotten rid of, this is a loss. And, as I hope I’ve articulated, the wrong strategic move.

That being said, I can’t say I didn’t enjoy this episode. Much like the Tribal Council, very little stood out, and at times it reeked of desperation, but it was mostly a fun experience, with some good strategizing to go along with it. “Survivor” bread and butter if ever there was some. Let us hope that next episode can build on this solid foundation.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Game Changers” Cast Assessment

KA-BOOM! That sound you are hearing is the explosion of my thoughts. This cast has been revealed before even “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” aired, and so I’ve had plenty of time to develop plenty of thoughts. And what better place to share them with the world than “Idol Speculation: My Knee-Jerk Opinion that Everyone is Entitled To!” As per usual, we begin with our cast assessment.

Now, for those of you expecting me to actually assess the cast in a blog about a “Cast Assessment”… You’ll be getting that. But first, there are some points, relating to the season as a whole, that I must address. Usually, I save such thoughts for after discussing each individual, but in this case, since some of these thoughts affect how I perceive individuals, they must be addressed now. Starting off with everyone’s favorite complaint: “These aren’t ‘game changers’!” The internet as a whole seems upset with this cast. That they don’t fit the theme. That they just seemed thrown together randomly. And yes, there are a number of people where you just have to go “Huh?” Nor do I buy Probst’s bullshit explanation of “These are people who were WILLING to change the game, even if they never did, and that makes them game changers.” Your argument is invalid good sir. By that logic, I’m a “Survivor” contestant. I’ve never been on the show myself, but I’m WILLING to go on the show, and that makes me just as famous as someone who’s actually BEEN on the show. Which brings me to what’s probably the main problem people have with this season: the name. Because, when you look at it, this cast isn’t really all that bad. Like I said, you’ve got some head scratchers, but you’ve got a lot of favorites and really good players. But when you hear “Survivor Game Changers”, it’s like hearing “Survivor All-Stars”, and you expect the creme de la creme, not the “Oh, they were there, I guess.” contestants. In a sense, CBS did itself in by naming the season the way they did. From my point of view, very few people can really be called “Game Changers” in the legacy of “Survivor”, because they have to have an impact beyond their season. This would be people like Richard Hatch (“Survivor Borneo”) and Rob Cesternino (“Survivor The Amazon”). Much though I hate to admit it, even someone like Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) would qualify as a “Game Changer” for thinking of looking for hidden immunity idols before being given any clues. So, let’s be more liberal and say that a “Game Changer” is someone who had a significant influence on the outcome of their season. Even THEN a number of these people don’t qualify. Which brings me to how this relates to the cast assessment. With returnee seasons, with the people I’m not fond of, I list who I would have cast in their place, trying to find someone similar in terms of characterization, but better. I’ll be doing that here as well, but even for people I like, if I feel that they don’t fit the theme, I’ll be giving them the shaft. However much I may like them, however entertaining they may be, however smart, if they aren’t a “Game Changer” by either of these definitions, they get the axe.

With all that said, let me again say to the internet: quit whining! Yeah some of these people seem weird, but look at what Kelley Wentworth did on “Survivor Cambodia”. Sometimes you have to take a chance. Truthfully, I actually think we’re a little bit spoiled by having this season come after “Survivor Cambodia”. It’s pretty hard to disagree with a cast you helped pick, so going away from that, and making questionable choices, it feels wanting.

Also, I will give the name “Survivor Game Changers” this: it’s cool-sounding. If you’re looking for epicene, it’s hard to top “Survivor Game Changers”. As I said, maybe not the most appropriate name for the cast, but I can’t come up with anything better, and “Survivor These Are The People Who Agreed To Come Back” just doesn’t roll off the tongue so well, so I’ll give it a pass.

Secondly, I’m going to be bringing up tribal division now. While I won’t delve TOO deep into the dynamics of each tribe until after the cast is assessed, I do need to show the division to bring up one important point that needs addressing in the assessment itself. So, the tribes are as follows:

MANA TRIBE:
Jeff Varner
Sandra-Diaz Twine
Troyzan Robertson
Malcolm Freberg
Ciera Eastin
Tony Vlachos
Hali Ford
Caleb Bankston
Aubry Bracco
Michaela Bradshaw

NUKU TRIBE:
Cirie Fields
Ozzy Lusth
J.T. Thomas
Andrea Boehkle
Brad Culpepper
Sarah Lacina
Debbie Wanner
Tai Trang
Sierra Dawn Thomas
Zeke Smith

The significance of these divisions is this: ON both tribes, I see a nexus of power developing amongst the particularly smart, but the philosophy of the smart people differs greatly. On Mana, we’ve got smart people who like to keep strong, likable people around as shields. The power on Nuku, however, guns for likable physical threats early on. Thus, when I say one person is annoying, so they’ll get eliminated early, but another person is annoying and will be dragged to the end, it’s entirely due to tribe division. I have some other thoughts here as well, but we can save those for the end of the blog.

Suppose I ought to get to the actual assessing of the cast, now shouldn’t I? Last points of note: I’ll only be listing the first season people played on, and their according placement, because in most cases of people who’ve played more than once, you should know who they are, and their “Survivor” history is all CBS cares about, so why should I list their occupations, ages, etc.? And for replacement contestants: if I KNOW someone was unavailable, or didn’t want to come back, I won’t put them as a replacement. Sorry. No Kelley Wentworth on this list.

Jeff Varner (10th place, “Survivor The Australian Outback”): Ooh boy, tough one right off the bat. Now, Jeff Varner is a very entertaining man, and a lot of fun to watch. Recall that one of my reasons for not giving “Survivor Cambodia” my top spot season ranking was that Varner’s early eviction took the season down slightly. So, you’d expect me to love his inclusion and gush about his chances, right? Well, not exactly. Varner for me is a case of “Once bitten, twice shy.” Given that we saw very little of his game the first time out in Australia, I was willing to give him the benefit of a doubt for “Survivor Cambodia”. So, we saw his game and… it wasn’t very good. I mean yeah, he was in control of the first few votes, but following a swap he managed to BLOW a 4-2 advantage for his alliance. On top of this, on both of his seasons, Varner has been sick/injured in some way which tells me that physically, he’s a liability. So no, I’m not super happy to see him back. In my mind, Varner had a chance to show us that he was robbed by “blabbermouth” Kimmi Kappenberg, and instead he fell short. No need to keep bringing him back like he’s “Boston Rob” Mariano (“Survivor Marquesas”). I do see him being a part of the “nice guys” alliance on the initial Mana tribe (particularly as he’s got a soft spot for Aubry, one of the suspected ringleaders of said alliance), so he might be safe for the first couple of votes, but between a strategic game that’s not as good as we think, and the potential for physical imagery, Varner is out fast after a tribe swap. Plus, with less of an “old school vs. new school” division to keep him afloat, Varner will not be as strategically viable this time around. So, who WOULD I put in his place, if he’s had his chance?

Marty Piombo (“Survivor Nicaragua”): I get that “Survivor Nicaragua” was not a good season. But Marty was one of the best things about it! Loud, brash, and faking being a chess grandmaster all make him very memorable, and as this helped him influence the course of his season, well earns him a spot. We’ve seen one contender try and fail; let’s give the newer guy a chance!

Sandra Diaz-Twine (Winner, “Survivor Pearl Islands”): Even being conservative with the definition of “Game Changer”, Sandra could still fit the bill for pioneering the “As long as it ain’t me” strategy, which many have tried and failed to copy. And she’ll definitely bring it from and entertainment perspective. I mean, as many have pointed out, you put her on a tribe with Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”). You’re just ASKING for entertaining arguments! And Sandra is a player I’ve got a lot of time for. But here’s the thing: It’s too soon for her. As someone who’s of the opinion that three time playing is the MAXIMUM for any player to avoid overexposure, Sandra needs to be saved for a grand finale. An all-winners season. Give her a chance to defend her title against the TRUE best of the best. Using her here, while entertaining, feels like a waste. Because you KNOW Sandra will not win this season. If I were going by statistics, she does have the best record. Here’s the thing, though: Sandra gets by through not being an initial target. She flew under the radar on “Survivor Pearl Islands”, and as she was only remembered as a slightly above-average winner when she went on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, she wasn’t the biggest fish in the pond. Now? She can’t. She simply can’t. Being the only two-time winner puts her at the top of a lot of people’s hit lists. Add onto that her challenge liability, and she’s definitely out before the merge. And we could have saved her for someplace better! Why not replace her with…

Kim Spradlin (“Survivor One World”): Yes, Kim is not a lip Puerto-Rican mother, but she IS a badass winner, and unlike Sandra, has not been overplayed. Kim is often rivaled with Sandra as one of the smartest winners ever, so why not put her on this season, see if she can pull it off, and THEN let the two meet for their respective third times to see who’s TRULY the best?

Cirie Fields (4th place, “Survivor Exile Island”): Here, with Cirie, we have flop of Jeff Varner. She definitely deserves to be back from a “Game Changers” perspective. She perfected, if not pioneered, the 3-2-1 vote off strategy, and encouraged a lot of less athletic people to try for the show. Bottom line with Cirie: I just don’t enjoy her. My initial dislike was due to being a big Terry Dietz fan on her initial season, but even with that died down, her sense of entitlement when she’s in power gets to me. On top of that, I feel like Cirie’s heyday has passed. I got bringing her back for both “Survivor Micronesia” and “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, but after a poor performance her third time, I feel like that ship has sailed. We got all the Cirie we needed, and it made for good seasons. That being said, Cirie being past her heyday will probably help her in this game. Cirie is often listed as one of the more dangerous players to ever be in the game, and this could make her a target. It certain did on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”. But those days when she was in the forefront of other’s minds are gone. I suspect Cirie will quietly become an epicenter of power on Nuku, and slip through until the early merge, where she will be taken out for being a current epicenter of power. Still, I’d rather see relatively fresh blood on this season. Perhaps someone like…

T-Bird Cooper (“Survivor Africa”): No, I will not get over her not being on “Survivor Cambodia”! T-Bird is smart, but an underdog, fitting the Cirie archetype, and DEFINITELY impacted the course of her season with the stray Lex vote at the merge. I’ll get more into my thoughts on bringing in contestants who lost the initial “Second Chances” vote when we come to Troyzan, but suffice to say, T-Bird is definitely one I’d like to see back someday.

Ozzy Lusth (Runner-Up, “Survivor Cook Islands”): Probst claims the fans love him, and keep asking for him back. I’d like to meet these fans, because personally, I think they’re made up! Pretty much every comment I see is just about how SICK people are of Ozzy, and I’m definitely one of them. Challenge beasts definitely have their place, but Ozzy’s played the same game three times in a row, and I’m willing to bet that he’ll be playing the same game a fourth time in a row. And it will not serve him well. As I said before, he’s on a tribe prone to getting rid of threats quickly, and add onto that him probably having a grudge against Cirie for “Survivor Micronesia”, and his time on the island will be nasty, brutish, and short. Definitely a pre-merge boot. The same could not necessarily be said for…

Mike Holloway (“Survivor Worlds Apart”): Really don’t get why he isn’t on the season. First guy to go on an immunity run and win? Total game changer! And while he brings a lot of the same things as Ozzy to the table, he’s got more personality, and would be more likely to change up his play style, making for a more interesting show. Plus, WE HAVEN’T SEEN HIM THREE TIMES ALREADY! I mean, this is a guy fans actually VOTED onto the show again, and was only voided due to his victory! It’s a win-win, CBS!

J.T. Thomas (Winner, “Survivor Tocantins”): On this season, one pattern that becomes apparent really quickly is that the previous winners are pretty universally the biggest targets, making them unlikely to win again. However, if I WERE to give one winner a chance at taking home another title, J.T. would be it. In a sense, he’s HELPED by his poor performance on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” Nowadays, he’s not so much remembered as “The first flawless victory”, but as “The guy who gave his idol to Russell Hantz”. A pretty embarrassing legacy, to be sure, but one that helps hide how dangerous J.T. is. If people forget that he’s a social charmer with more strategic smarts than you’d think, J.T. will destroy you! I still don’t see him winning, especially if he gets too caught up in trying to prove himself, but I think he’ll make probably the mid-merge area. Would I change him out? Absolutely not! As I say, J.T. is an engaging player for all the contradictions one can find in him, and a good redemption story-arc could liven up the season. When I talk about the good players we get to see again, J.T. is definitely up there on the list.

Andrea Boehlke (5th Place, “Survivor Redemption Island”s): Ok, while I don’t necessarily agree with bringing back someone based on “potential” gameplay, I can forgive it once. But TWICE? Look, I know Andrea SEEMED to be doing more during her second go-around, but ultimately, she still delivered very little. How many times can we bring her back before we just accept that she’s not going to deliver. Never been a big Andrea fan, and unless she does something spectacular, I doubt she will be. In terms of her chances, Andrea is probably the biggest question mark for me. I could see her managing to get in good with the power players on her tribe and go deep. I could also see her overplaying her hand in an attempt to prove herself, and flaming out early as a result. I’ll hedge my bets somewhat, and say that she goes out after a swap, right before the merge. But given my way, I’d put someone else in her place.

Cydney Gillon (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”): Unlike Andrea, Cydney actually BROUGHT strategy to the table, and was quite good at it as well. At least and entertaining, and definitely more strategic, Cydney would elevate this season to a whole new level. And for those say this is too many people from “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, when you factor in the four already cast, don’t worry, one of them is also going to be getting the boot, so adding in Cydney keeps us at four.

Troyzan Robertson (10th place, “Survivor One World”): I’ve gone on record saying that I don’t mind people up for “Survivor Cambodia” but not making the cut being offered another chance, and I stand by that. But I meant for another “Second Chance” vote, not to be stuck on the season itself. Put simply, there are only two groups of people who I would say from the “Second Chance” vote who CBS could cast of their own accord that I’d be okay with. The first group is those done in by recency bias, like T-Bird and Shane Powers (“Survivor Exile Island”), due to more recent fans probably enjoying their games, but not knowing who they are. And the second is those done in by their proximity to the end, that being Mike Holloway and Carolyn Rivera, who probably lost votes due to people not wanting to “waste” their vote on a potential winner. Anyone other than that? CBS, have you considered the reason that these people didn’t make it on was because WE DIDN’T WANT TO SEE THEM AGAIN? I suppose you could make the argument that they were just up against better-liked people, but if we really wanted to see them again, they’d have made it on. Troyzan has no extenuating circumstances to help him out here, and I’m not happy to see him back. The dude was annoying and one-dimensional the first time out, his only redeeming factor being that he was about the only person willing to stand up to Kim Spradlin. Here, with no Kim to stand up against? He’s toast. On seasons with returning players, you have to be willing to change up your own game to get far, and I just don’t see Troyzan doing that. Couple that with him being on the tribe that votes out the annoying people, and Troyzan is dead on arrival. He might last a few votes with a “bigger fish to fry” mentality, but he’s definitely out before the merge. And all this time, his slot could have been filled with…

Judd Sergeant (“Survivor Guatemala”): My ongoing quest to give “Survivor Guatemala” the respect it deserves will not be denied! you want a big hulking guy who can be annoying? Here you go! With his unique pattern of speaking and willingness to strategize without being whiny, Judd would be a much better addition to this season than the annoying egotist. Plus, Judd actually had some INFLUENCE on the outcome of his season, unlike Troyzan, who only like to THINK he had influence.

Malcolm Freberg (4th Place, “Survivor Philippines”): Ok, cast haters, you are FORBIDDEN to dislike the return of Malcolm. The guy’s a superfan, he’s got great humor, he’s good in challenges, and he brings it in the strategy department. Hell, even by the strict definition of “Game Changers” Malcolm qualifies, for his Triple Idol maneuver on “Survivor Caramoan”. Sure, it didn’t help in the end, but it did help start the trend of “Live” Tribal Councils, so he deserves credit there. Malcolm delivers on every conceivable level, and I’m very happy to see him back. In a sense, this is the perfect time for Malcolm to come back. We got back to back Malcolm back in 2012-2013, and while I do enjoy the man’s game, that’s a LOT of Malcolm. We needed a break, and he needed a break. Now, it’s been long enough that Malcolm-mania has died down, but not so long that we the audience have forgotten him. But the cast may have. With the arrival of people like Joe Anglim (“Survivor Worlds Apart”), Malcolm is no longer the man-of-the-hour, and given his smarts, I think this will take him to the end. Yes, Malcolm is my male pick to win the entire game. He’s not invisible, but between his smarts and his heyday having passed, Malcolm definitely can school all of these people and take home the win. Plus, in terms of timing, as I’ve said, it just feels right.

Brad Culpepper (15th Place, “Survivor Blood vs. Water”): He of the eternally being fucked. Look I get why Brad Culpepper got brought back. He’s controversial. He got the press talking about the show, and even if it was about apparent sexism on the show, the old “Any publicity is good publicity” adage applies. But like with Troyzan, perhaps the reason he didn’t get voted back on WAS BECAUSE WE DIDN’T WANT TO SEE HIM AGAIN! Out of every choice here, Brad is perhaps my least favorite of them all. He’s a sexist pig who’ll just play the same game again because he thinks too highly of himself to play any differently. My one consolation is that he won’t be kept around very long. True, he is on the tribe that keeps around the annoying people so as to have goats at the end, and Brad could fit into that dynamic, but with the women of the season seeming to have all the strategic power, and Brad not working well with women, I don’t see this ending well with him. At least we may get more hilarity of Brad being defeated by basic math yet again. It better be quick, though, as I predict Brad is out right after the swap. I suppose he did shift the course of his game with his initial alliance, but that still doesn’t make me happy to see him. So, who would I put in his place?

Gary Hawkins/Hogeboom (“Survivor Guatemala”): You want a pro-football player? Fine. Get one with strategic chops and who’s actually somewhat likable. Plus, put him and Judd on a season together, and you’ve set yourself up for some drama. Perhaps the error is in casting trying to call Gary Hawkins rather than Gary Hogeboom.

Ciera Eastin (5th Place, “Survivor Blood vs. Water”): Most of the fandom sees Ciera as a polarizing character. You either love her for her willingness to throw herself into the strategic game, or you hate her guts and think her moves are overblown. I land somewhere in the middle. Yes, Ciera voting out her mom has been overhyped, and yes, her choice to go to rocks was poorly timed, but she still had potential. Look how she simultaneously caught Katie Collins in a lie, and then ensured Katie in a lie of her own. That, right there, is impressive! Plus, I’ll take someone who plays badly over someone who doesn’t play at all. Add in a good snarky comments here or there, and I’m happy enough with Ciera on this season. Heck, with the decision to go to rocks, she definitely fits the second definition of “Game Changer”, and arguably fits the first. Definitely not changing her out. With all that said, Ciera is definitely short-lived in this game. My read on Ciera is that she really hasn’t recovered from “Survivor Cambodia”, and is still stuck in that mindset. The trouble is that this is a different cast than “Survivor Cambodia”, and handling them the same will result in a post-swap, pre-merge eviction. Yes, keep telling people to “Make moves”, see how far it gets you.

Sarah Lacina (11th Place, “Survivor Cagayan”): One of the major head scratchers of the season. Sarah, really? I could see Sarah getting asked back for another “Second Chances” vote, but how is she in any way a “Game Changer”. She played very little, and when she did play, was so entitled that she screwed her own game up. In a sense, this makes her dangerous, as no one will target her initially. However, once again, Sarah is her own worst enemy. As I’ve said, on seasons like this, you need to be willing to recognize the flaws in your own game, and be willing to fix them. In Sarah’s case, I don’t think she sees the flaws in her game. Correction: I think she sees Kass as the flaw in her game, and by being unwilling to take a hard look at herself, she won’t win. She’ll probably make the early to mid-merge by virtue of being useful and unthreatening, but her own inflexibility will be her downfall at that point. As a Kass fan, it should come as no surprise that I’m not big on Sarah. She’s not the WORST this season has to offer, but she comes off as entitled and full of herself. I’d much rather see…

Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”): Yeah, Natalie’s game may not have been revolutionary, but she did influence the course of her season, and I’ll take it. You want personality? Natalie’s got personality. Now, let’s see her use it.

Tony Vlachos (Winner, “Survivor Cagayan”): Tony is a character I got back and forth on. He definitely plays hard, which is a plus, but I often feel like there’s no method to his madness, and he can come off as an arrogant Jersey stereotype. Still, he is one of the few who really changed the way the game is played, by showing that a “balls to the wall” approach can work, and since he can get a smile out of me, I’ll give him a plus for the season. Again, though, he won’t be around very long for us to enjoy. Tony’s play style is SO over the top that he really can’t hide, and on a season like this, hiding is essential. Tony is no doubt a pre-merge boot. If he changes up his game, MAYBE he could go deep, but I don’t think Tony is capable of that, so pre-merge boot it is.

Hali Ford (“Survivor Worlds Apart”): Now we get into the REAL “What were they thinking?” moments, and Hali definitely fits the bill there. She has NO accomplishments to her name whatsoever, and is one of those people you hear about and think “Who?” Yes, I’m no fan of Hali on this season, but I do like her chances. As I’ve said, lying low is a benefit on this season, and so by having no accomplishments to her name, Hali is well placed to go deep. I’ll also give her this, she ADMITS that she did nothing to earn her place on this season, and knows it. Unlike everyone else, who embraces their title whether or not it was earned, Hali is fully aware of how she stands, and that gives her an edge. Plus, while I still don’t believe in casting returnees for “potential”, I can kind of see it here. Hali’s game was short, but I feel like she was a driving force behind the Max vote after the swap, and she might impress us and be the next Kelley Wentworth. She’ll be around ot the mid-to-late merge for sure, but I can’t help but feel her spot would be better filled with…

Sophie Clarke (“Survivor South Pacific”): Nerdy superfan? Check. Much more engaging? Double check. Actual accomplishments? Triple check. Sophie actually brings the things that Hali claims to bring, and I’d rather have the sure thing any day.

Sierra Dawn Thomas (“5th Place, “Survivor Worlds Apart”): Now, HERE’S where my outrage comes. SERIOUSLY! DID SIERRA DO ANYTHING? ANYTHING? Sure, she split from the group in the Final Tribal Council vote, big whoop. At least Hali has the excuse of being out early. But if you make it to the final episode without doing ANYTHING noteworthy, you really don’t need to be out there. Sierra sort of fits into that “under the radar” category, but I think she’s got too big a chip on her shoulder to keep it under wraps for too long. As less of a threat, she’ll make the merge, but probably be out shortly after that. I won’t miss her then, and I’d really rather they cast…

Carolyn Rivera (“Survivor Worlds Apart”): Like I said, I feel Carolyn was robbed of a spot on “Survivor Cambodia” for being too close to being a winner. Granted, her presence would diminish the “Hot Girl in Bikini” Quotient for the season, but again, a season should not be cast for that. In terms of gameplay, Carolyn would bring a lot, and really elevate this season to a much higher level. Let’s see what she can do, I say.

Caleb Reynolds (15th Place, “Survivor Kaoh Rong”): Now, I like Caleb. His relationship with Tai was one of the sweeter parts of the season. He seemed to be setting himself up in an ok position. When he was medevaced, I wanted to see him come back. But like with Sandra, this is just the wrong place to do it. Caleb’s another one who I could understand at a “Second Chance” vote, but in this group of people, he’s simply outclassed. He’s on the “nice guy” tribe, so he’ll be kept around for that and physical strength, but he’ll be taken out by savvier players right after the merge. Which is a shame, but at least he’ll get a proper vote-out this time. Also, how did he influence the game, at all? Can’t help but feel his spot would be better filled with…

David Wright (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X): Less of a match in gameplay style, but more of a match in “I could’ve been a contender” storyline. I’m actually really surprised David isn’t on this season, given how compelling his story arc was last season, and how much influence he had. For all that I didn’t want him to win because it was too predictable, I did like the guy. I want him to come back, and he’d be a better fit than Caleb for a season like this.

Debbie Wanner (9th Place, “Survivor Kaoh Rong”): Every season needs a bit of color, and Debbie certainly brings that. Now, if she was THAT one-dimensional, I wouldn’t be happy, but the fact is that Debbie can and does bring the strategy every now and again, which elevates her to a player I’m rather fond of. Debbie did have some influence on the course of her season, so I can’t fault her casting here too much. Debbie’s issue is that her strategy often gives way to madness and social ineptitude, which is why she’ll be around a good while. She’s on the tribe that could take her along as a goat, but would value her strategic talk enough to let her help make decisions. Many of the “Survivor Kaoh Rong” returnees will be hurt by there being four of them, making people instantly suspicious, but Debbie is best placed to avoid this stigma, really only having any relations with Aubry, and those being strained due to Aubry’s betrayal. No, Debbie is a mid-to-late merge boot, and only will not win due to madness inevitably winning out in the end. Still, she will be fun to watch this season. My only regret? That due to people’s seasons being listed in their interviews, we won’t get to see Debbie’s ever-changing jobs this time around. Phooey.

Tai Trang (3rd Place, “Survivor Kaoh Rong”): America’s Sweetheart is back, and I am loving it! While he may not stack up strategically, Tai did influence his season, particularly with not using the super idol. He’s a fun little underdog to watch, and just an inherently likable guy. Sadly, for all my love, Tai will be the first person to be voted out. Being likable makes him a threat to the majority alliance on Nuku, and with the threat of a “Survivor Kaoh Rong” team-up, plus Tai still being at the forefront as a popular “Survivor” player, he’s just got nowhere to hide, and it will cost him. Were he a better strategist, he might be able to do something about his standing, but he just doesn’t have it in him to avoid that initial target. I wish him the best, and there’s no way I’d change him out, but I get the feeling he’s done for.

Aubry Bracco (Runner-Up, “Survivor Kaoh Rong”): Yeah, I know there’s a lot of Aubry haters out there lately, but even by the standards of her fellow competitors, she plays well, and much of that hate comes from the annoying people who insist that Michele had no game. Aubry, for all of her lack of a win, did significantly influence the course of her season, and gets well-deserved credit for defeating the super-idol, so her spot on this season is well-earned. As my favorite player of all time, you can be sure that I’m THRILLED to see her back, and her presence is a lot of what makes me so psyched for the season. I expect Aubry to do well. So well, in fact, that I’m making her my female pick to win the whole thing. Admittedly, this might just be me fanboying, but I feel like Aubry’s got the skills needed to take it this time. Normally I’m opposed to making my winner pick someone so close in terms of season number, because I feel like people need at least a year to consider their mistakes to truly learn from them, and playing on back-to-back, or nearly back-to-back seasons simply does not give you adequate time to do so. Normally, I’d say only those from season 31 or before have a shot. But remember, Aubry’s season was filmed BEFORE “Survivor Cambodia”, giving her and her fellow competitors from that season more time than normal to reflect on their mistakes, thus mitigating this factor. She even notes her mistakes in her bio more blatantly than most anyone on this season, noting that she needs to be friends with more people in order to win. Some would argue, quite rightly, that Aubry has a HUGE target on her back, due to “Survivor Kaoh Rong” having just ended prior to filming this season. This keeps Aubry at the forefront of everyone’s minds, and as she was hailed a strategic genius, it could spell doom. However, I have two rebuttals to this: First off, in the interviews available on CBS.com, only three people mention Aubry as a threat. Tai and Debbie, who’ve played with her, and Ciera, who’ll have no real power on this season anyway. For all that she’s supposedly an “early target”, that’s very few people gunning for you early on, which Aubry can easily avoid. The second reason? Aubry, as demonstrated on her first go-around, is SUPERB at bonding with people and getting them to act against their own self-interest. You see how she manipulated Tai back to her side after betraying him TWICE? I’m not going against that! Aubry will win, and I will be thrilled.

Michaela Bradshaw (14th Place, “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”): Not sure how she really “changed the game”, but I don’t care, she’s awesome. And she did bust up stereotypes in many ways, so I’ll give her a pass for the season. Michaela is pure fun. A challenge-based character who brings a lot of personality and fun confessionals. So happy to see her back! Sadly, Michaela will fare little better on this season than she did on her last one, due to having little time to reflect on her mistakes. Michaela claims to realize that she needs to hide her abilities more, but I’m not sure she really means that, or can accomplish it. She seems like she’ll fit into the “Nice Guys” alliance well, so I see her making the merge, but she’s out at that point for being a threat. It will be sad to see, but better to have some Michaela than none at all. No way I change her out.

Zeke Smith (9th Place, “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”): Zeke is a funny place to end on. He definitely did influence his season, so he’s ok from that perspective, but entertainment is a bit trickier. I liked Zeke ok as a character, but he kind of became an asshole at the end. If we get nice Zeke, I’m pleased he’s back. If he can bring humor like he did in his bio (he has a line about waking up screaming “David found another idol!” Hilarious!), then he’ll be a nice, fun addition to the season. If he’s an asshole again, as a fear he will be due to the short turnaround time between seasons, then I’m not a big fan. Zee definitely makes the merge, since I see no way he DOESN’T join up with the power players, but as we’ve seen, arrogance goes to his head, and like Michaela he’s out in the early merge. Whether or not that’s a disappointment is up in the air.

Whew! That was a long one. Now, to further flesh out the season, I will concede that the timing seems off for an all-returnees season. Most of them have come on or near major anniversaries for “Survivor” in the past, so this one just seems odd and out of place. Plus, it seems like too soon after “Survivor Cambodia”, helping to explain why a lot of people don’t seem to be super excited. And yes, there are a fair number of people who maybe we don’t want to see again. I, however, feel like ANY cast not selected by the fans would be a letdown after “Survivor Cambodia”, and for what we got, we’ve really got a lot of likable people to root for, and even some villains to gleefully watch fall from grace.

Now, as to tribe dynamics, here’s how I see alliances falling out: On Mana, Malcolm and Aubry will form a core nexus. Both will want “Likability Shields”, and so will click into each other that way. Some might argue that Malcolm prefers to keep physical threats around, a la “Survivor Caramoan”, but I would point out that he didn’t really build that strategy until after the swap, so early on, I think he’ll try for the likability shield. Aubry probably uses her connection with Tai to bring in Caleb, making a core three. Hali and Michaela, and generally likable people, plus Michaela’s challenge ability, making a core five. Our sixth is a bit harder to pin down. Varner would be the obvious choice, especially as he’s an avowed Aubry fan, but with this alliance primarily being anti-Tony, I could see Sandra getting pulled in as the sixth, since she’s doubtless anti-Tony. If I had to guess, I’d say Varner is the sixth, since Sandra is such a big threat. I don’t see this tribe losing a lot initially (they’ve got at least as many physical “big guns” as Nuku, and I’d say they’ve got a leg up in puzzles), but if Varner costs them a challenge, Sandra could take his place.

Nuku is a bit tougher to figure out, but I definitely don’t see Cirie not weaseling her way into a power couple. Surprisingly, I feel like she and J.T. will bond together. I don’t see J.T. or Cirie holding much of a grudge over “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, and while I doubt they trust each other, I think a “Keep your friends close and your enemies closer” mentality will prevail. Zeke and Andrea will probably be pulled in as secondary strategists, and as they’re not the most likable of people, will be kept around a while. The brains will agree to keep Debbie on as cannon fodder, leaving Sarah to get caught up in the ride. Ozzy is probably their early target, since I see HIM holding a grudge over “Survivor Micronesia”, and being too much of a threat. After a swap, though, all these ideas go up in smoke. Plus, there’s probably some wishful thinking in there on my part. An Aubry-Malcolm power alliance. I might explode.

Lastly, let’s talk hidden immunity idols. The one other tidbit of info we got on the season is that hidden immunity idols will not be hidden the same way twice. Some may be at challenges, some may be on the rice at camp, some may be at Tribal Council, but the point is, finding it one way one time does not guarantee that it will be found the same way again. I’m holding off on judging this twist just yet. It IS a clever shake-up with some potential, and I do like how it could keep idols in multiple hands, rather than the person who initially figured out how to find it having an inherent advantage. On the other hand, the conspiracy-theorist side of me says that it’s just a way for the producers to hide idols in places where the people they want to find them go, and so have too great an influence on the game. That’s really only a question time can answer, so I’ll reserve judgement for now.

Say what you will, but I get the feeling this might be a great season yet! See you all on March 8th for the premiere of “Survivor Game Changers”!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: The Tragedy of Aubry Bracco

Screw it, CBS, if you’re not going to release your new cast today so that I can talk about it, I’ll find something ELSE to talk about. Maybe not the most timely of topics, but dammit, it needs to be addressed.

Now, this is a blog that I’ve been mulling over for a while. The loss of Aubry Bracco to Michele Fitzgerald in the finale of “Survivor Kaoh Rong” has shaken the “Survivor” community like I’ve not seen in a long time, and while the debate has largely died down, I doubt it will ever go away entirely. Still, I’ve felt a need to contribute something, but didn’t mainly because I felt I had nothing to say. And true, I will freely admit that a number of the points I’ll make here are unoriginal. The fact remains, however, that understanding the reasoning behind this outcome helps us understand “Survivor”, and now that I have some points that I feel I can bring to the discussion anew, the time is right.

The finale of “Survivor Kaoh Rong” was less than a year ago, but let us set the stage nevertheless. After what turned out to be a pretty exciting season, we went into the finale with expectations high. What we had here was a rare situation like with “Survivor Philippines” where no matter who won, the audience would be happy. We had Aubry, probably the audience favorite due to most “Survivor” fans being nerds of some form or another, who had a great transformation story, helped make arguably the biggest move of the game, and pretty well dominated strategy post-merge. We had Cydney, fellow strategy dominator and all around badass woman. Ok, she was maybe not as well liked as Aubry, but that’s mainly nerd-bias coming into play. Cydney was Aubry’s strategic equal, and the one who ultimately organized the dominant alliance. A victory from her would be well-deserved. We had Tai, America’s sweetheart, and so unlikely of a winner that you couldn’t help but root for him. And we had Michele, who while perhaps the least exciting of the four, did have something of an “underdog finalist” narrative going for her, had made some subtle gameplay moves, won a lot of respect for smacking down the sexist comments of former ally Nick Maiorano, and just seemed like a nice person in general. About the only thing the audience, and even the players, COULD agree on was that the only real foregone conclusion would be having Aubry in the finals. She wins there, no question. Strategically dominant, and even her enemies seemed to have a lot of respect. Note Scot Pollard’s “Giving her all in every aspect of the game.” comment, and Kyle Jason’s “There’s as much brawn in her as there is in me.” comment right before Scot got booted. Add onto that the recent trend of “Survivor” juries generally going for the player with the best strategic gameplay, and having Aubry in the finals seemed a lock for a win.

And then, with a “Final Three” twist, Aubry, Michele, and Tai were our finalists. We got a closer vote than we usually get, with a 5-2 victory, but that victory went to Michele. And thus began the wailing and the gnashing of teeth.

Seriously, this was fandom rage over a winner that I hadn’t seen in a while. Say what you will about recent “Survivor” seasons, but there was usually little complaint about the ultimate winner. Certainly there were times where people politely debated the outcome. People who said that Parvati deserved the win over Sandra in “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, detractors of Sophie Clark from “Survivor South Pacific”. Hell, if you want to get really recent, some even debate whether Hannah or Ken should have won “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X.” But that’s the thing: it’s debate, not rage. No, if you want to go back to the last time we had real rage over the outcome of a season of “Survivor”, you’d have to go back to Natalie White’s victory in “Survivor Samoa”, seven years ago at the time of this writing, and six and a half as of the “Survivor Kaoh Rong” finale. Pretty good track record, all things considered, but that’s not what we’re here to talk about. We’re here to talk about the winner of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, and how it happened.

When this initial outcome happened, I was really at a loss for what to say about it. One the one hand, as an Aubry fan in general and a lover of unlikely people overcoming odds, it’s more than fair to say that I was in Aubry’s corner, and would very much have loved her to win. On the other hand, I’m not someone who thinks “deserving” really enters into “Survivor”, so declaring Aubry the “correct” winner seemed wrong. More to the point, it detracts from Michele’s game. She played well. Her play style wasn’t very “showy”, but in many ways, that’s the smart way to do things, since it makes you less of a target. Arguing that Aubry “Was the better player” or “should have one” inherently detracts from the good game Michele played, and would be too insulting for my taste. Still, the outcome detracted from the season, but I had no way to express that without insulting Michele. Until now.

Ok, here’s where argument stealing comes into play. In anticipation for the upcoming season, I’ve been surfing around the “Survivor” Web, just to read what I can to tide me over until CBS announces the cast already. In doing so, I came across a recap of the finale of “Survivor Kaoh Rong” on the website “Inside ‘Survivor'”, which phrased it perfectly. To paraphrase: In general, the storyline of any given season of “Survivor” can be boiled down to “This is why person A won.” or “This is why person B lost.” As “Survivor Kaoh Rong” ultimately does neither, we get a weak ending to the season.

Bam. Right there. It’s not about who played better than whom, but about what the editors chose to do. I can understand not wanting to give us a “Why Michele won.” storyline this season. As I said, her game isn’t very “showy” and doesn’t make for good television. Fair enough. But then you need to explain to us why Aubry lost, and you didn’t do an adequate job of that, either. You were too busy making her beloved by the fans to DARE show us her spots. Oh, you showed us a couple, here and there. Her breakdown on day two, and her indecision in voting Peter out. But ultimately, the back half of the season, what most people remember, can be boiled down to “Cydney and Aubry kick ass.”, and in the case of the former flaw, it was redeemed in the same episode it was brought up in.

Now, some of you may point to what my readings seem to indicate is the most accepted explanation for Aubry’s loss, namely that she didn’t talk too much to people outside her alliance. Which I would accept, within the show, as fair enough, IF THEY ACTUALLY BOTHERED TO SHOW IT! See, this is part of that “Show Aubry’s spots” thing. If she played a social game where she alienated people, fair enough. If Scot and Jason in particular (as they seemed to be the freest votes going into Final Tribal Council) hated Aubry’s guts, then give us confessionals of them hating Aubry’s guts. If they felt that strongly, you must have SOME material you can use! But no, we get confessionals of them talking about how much of a threat she is, and giving the aforementioned compliments that made it LOOK like there were no hard feelings. Extended clips and behind the scenes things are all well and good, but the storyline of the season is what we get on tv, and what we got on tv was that Aubry was beloved by everyone on the jury, save perhaps for Debbie (due to her betrayal) and Julia (due to being besties with Michele).

Now, some might argue that a “This is why person B lost.” storyline inherently makes that person unlikeable, and the producers didn’t want to do that to Aubry. A fair enough point, but the producers have shown that they can show why someone lost, and still have them be at least somewhat likable before. Russell Hantz’ loss on “Survivor Samoa” may be the primary example of a “Why person B lost.” story, but it’s not the only one. The model the producers needed to follow was “Survivor All Stars”. I know, it’s weird to copy anything from “Survivor All Stars” but here it was necessary. We had a winner, Amber Brkitch, whose game, while not the most exciting, was the winning one. So, the producers showed why Boston Rob ultimately lost, by highlighting how he was personally offending most of the other players. Now, this didn’t make Boston Rob the darling of America, but he was well liked enough to be a prime vote-getter in the popularity poll at the end of the season, and the fanbase still had a lot of respect for him at the end. Despite the story of the season being about his failings, a good number of people still liked, or at least respected, Boston Rob. If Aubry’s social game did have those failings, then you could show us those, and we would still like her as a flawed, but pretty good player. Instead, you had to highlight the good points, and make it seem like an Aubry win was a lock. Not saying Aubry was a bad player by any stretch, but if there was a coherent reason she turned a lot of the jury off, then we need to know it.

As it stands, I do have two ideas about why Aubry lost that fit within the evidence presented on the show only, but the outcome isn’t a good one. If we go by the show’s logic, Aubry’s loss was due 100% to anti-nerd bias. True, we still have the problem of Aubry being shown in the most positive light possible, but we do at least have confessionals that state that our potential swing votes may be anti-nerd. Jason’s “Shoving geeks in lockers.” comment comes to mind. And if that’s the case, then, well, it sucks. Yes, the jury is allowed to vote based on whatever criteria they wish, and if that involves implicit bias, so be it. But here’s why it’s unsatisfying: It’s something Aubry can’t fix. It implies that, however good of a game she played, Aubry would never win on this season because she herself was never going to be an acceptable winner to these people, and she can’t do anything about it. True, one can try and build bonds with people, try and be someone they’re not, but at the end of the day, if someone’s biased against you, you may not be able to overcome that hurdle. Therefore, no matter how well you play the game, even if your physical, social, and strategic games could not be better, people would still not vote for you because of bias. And that rubs people in general, and me in particular, the wrong way. Would a vote based on Aubry’s social game still be hard to take. Yes, but I could see it as a flaw to overcome in the future. “Being a nerd” is not a flaw, nor should it be, and may not be possible to overcome.

The other part of this is simply connection. Debbie and Julia, as I’ve said, were pretty well locked Michele votes in this Final Three, and I think we underestimated how much Scot and Jason followed Julia’s lead, making Michele’s win a dead certainty. Again, understandable, but what could be done about it? Some might argue that Aubry could have made moves earlier in the game that could have put her up against people she could have beaten, and it may be true, but I argue that this leaves too many variables unchecked to really be of any value. For example, let’s say that Aubry had joined with Tai to vote out Michele instead of Jason at the final six. True, it gets rid of Michele, but what if Jason goes on an immunity tear after that? Aubry, being perceived as a threat, maybe doesn’t even MAKE Final Tribal Council. I’m all for speculation (this is “Idol Speculation” after all), but there are just too many unknowns here for such speculation to be of any merit.

In the end, the season is what it is. Still very good, but with a misstep in the editing that made the ending less satisfying. People have debated the details of the outcome in more depth than I care to, and ultimately we’ll probably never know the true reasoning behind the outcome that jibes with all the evidence. Having it fall on the editing team hopefully helps them prepare for the future, and let’s me sleep at night. Able to be bitter about the outcome, but happy in the knowledge that both our winner and our runner-up played great games.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor MGX” Episode 7: She Sells Seashells

While many are still comparing Hannah to Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”), and I’ll admit that Hannah actually does something to earn that comparison this episode (albeit briefly), I think people are missing a more apt “Survivor Kaoh Rong” comparison. Why is nobody pointing out how Michaela is basically Cydney? Both are challenge beasts, have “tell it like it is” quotes, and even hidden intelligence. But, I hear you protest, didn’t Cydney have a terrible social game (evidenced by the hatred of the jury at that last fire-making challenge), while Michaela is a social genius? To that, I respond that someone yelling out their strategy to the entire group of contestants at an immunity challenge, as Michaela did last episode, is far from a smart social game, especially as someone who always speaks her mind. So yeah, these two are pretty similar. Really, the only differences between them are Michaela is a bit more inherently likable, and Cydney is evidently a bit more inherently smarter.

Yeah, you heard me right. The evidence in this episode speaks for itself. Cydney chose to keep her intelligence largely under wraps, letting it out only when needed. Michaela, for all her values, did not have this advantage, and this was her doom, in a real topper of an episode this season.

But, of course, we must start with our requisite fallout from the last Tribal Council. Taylor is pissed! There’s an incredible shock! Adam, the one left on Takali who really needs to do damage control, demonstrates more skill in this area than anyone on this season so far, by first asking if the burned person is READY to talk before actually engaging in the talking. Mind you, he still makes a right pig’s ear of it all. Adam apologizes up and down for burning Taylor, an approach I’d normally deride, but here I think it’s actually the smart play. Taylor, as will be emphasized repeatedly throughout the episode, is not a thinker. Man plays with his heart. Emotion matters more to him than strategy. True, Adam does need to follow up his emotional appeal with the logic of why he had to do what he did, but only by starting off this way can he appeal to Taylor. Mind you, he still DOES have to explain himself, and here’s where he falls short. It may just be that we didn’t see it, but Adam never really tries to justify his actions, instead repeatedly emphasizing how he screwed Taylor and betrayed him. Again, this needs to be PART of Adam’s argument, but by just having the “I screwed you.” emotional part of the conversation, you’re only fueling Taylor’s fire. To Adam’s credit, though, Taylor takes it about as well as could be hoped. Granted, Taylor says that he’s still out for revenge against Adam, but given that Adam voted out his lover, that’s understandable. As Taylor just agrees to not make waves for now, I’d call this a success. Having someone out for your blood is never good, but under the circumstances, I think this is the best that could be hoped for in Adam’s case.

Another part of the fallout of Adam’s move was the fear that the old Takali would reunite and be unbreakable, thus putting Adam on the bottom of another majority. The counter to that comes next morning, when David gets paranoid about whether or not Chris will screw him. As I’ll talk about near the end of this blog, I do think the old Takali are more likely to come together than the old Vanua, but this is not like an Upolu situation from “Survivor South Pacific”. These six may be able to unite, but it’s not like they were tight from the beginning. There’s cracks, and those cracks can be exploited, helping to justify Adam’s move.

So, what does David do about his paranoia over Chris? Why, he reveals his idol to Zeke, of course! Ok, I can see David bonding with Zeke. I can see David trusting Zeke. I can even see David telling Zeke about the idol later. But now? The pair haven’t had THAT much of a chance to bond, and given how close Zeke has been to Chris, I’d be a bit suspicious. I’d at LEAST tell Jessica and Ken about your idol before I’d tell Zeke. Granted, David’s not on the same tribe as them, but the point that they’re more trustworthy than Zeke at this point is work taking into account. Many have accused David of making big moves for the sake of big moves (his saving of Jessica being a major example), and here’s one example that I can’t disagree with. The only reason to trust Zeke with idol information at this point is desperation to do something major, and I think it may backfire on David down the line.

Coming into our reward challenge, Jay can only proclaim the phrase “sick” While I have an intense, burning hatred for this phrase, I can’t deny that this challenge is all kinds of awesome. Tribes start out in the water, where they must run to a pole, with a coil of metal around it, with a bag of balls tied to that coil. They must lift up one tribe member to unspool the balls, then bring them to shore. One at a time, those balls can be tossed down a chute into a fishnet, where they are worked through by two other tribe members. Once all three balls are through, they must be thrown and stay atop a thin wooden board. First tribe with all three balls atop wins a chef at their camp, while the second tribe gets do-it-yourself kebabs. Not too shabby, especially since the “personal chef” reward is a relatively less-used one. Not unheard-of, but less used. Likewise, most of these challenge elements have been heard of, but not used very often. The metal coil comes courtesy of “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, while the fishnet dates all the way back to “Survivor Thailand”, though this iteration bears more of a resemblance to a challenge from “Survivor Cagayan”. But ooh, that ball throwing ending. We’ve had challenges of putting balls on a target before, but, if you’ll forgive me for reusing a description from last episode, this nook is nothing short of sadistic. Unlike other ball nooks, which require power to reach, this one requires finesse, a very different skill. Even if other nooks also required finesse, those at least were form-fitting, mostly preventing the balls from being knocked out by other, wayward balls. There is no such comfort in this challenge, adding to the pressure. While the elements of the challenge are rehashes, they come together well, and I can’t help but once again agree with Jay’s assessment. Sick.

We, of course, get pretty major reactions from our fellow contestants, with Hannah giving her “shocked” expression at the whole situation. An expression she’s had a lot of practice at this season. Surprisingly, though, Michaela seems pretty happy. Probst asks her about this, since she’d directly called out Takali to get rid of an old Gen-X member, and her fallout was also another strike against Adam’s move last episode. Well, you can chalk this up as another downside nixed. Michaela, in yet another great quotable moment, says that she said what she needed to say, not what she felt. So yeah, who has Adam offended by this move? Taylor, definitely. Jay and Michelle, one Taylor gets back with them. All people he probably wasn’t going to work with anyway. Not a huge loss, all things considered. And a lot of gain, in weakening an alliance against them. But back to Michaela; while this is once again a great moment, it’s not the smartest move for her. Again, wearing one’s heart on one’s sleeve can reveal too much of one’s game, and while that’s not the DIRECT reason for Michaela’s ouster, it IS symptomatic of the larger problem of her game.

As if the challenge could not get more awesome, we get a good back and forth. Vanua falls behind early, due to the inexplicable decision to try and lift Zeke to do the balls, when you have the much lighter David and Michelle on your tribe. Takali and Ikabula are pretty even, but Ken’s tossing skills give Takali an edge. However, as this challenge involves balls, Chris is king. Between his throwing and Zeke and Michelle being surprisingly good at getting the balls through the fishnet, Vanua is back in the race, and as the last phase ALSO involves tossing balls, you can guess who has a great come-from-behind victory. Not quite as spectacular as Kass McQuillen’s on “Survivor Cagayan”, but impressive nonetheless. It’s a tight race for second, but Ikabula wisely puts Michaela on the last phase, and as we all know, Michaela is a challenge beast. She naturally clinches second, earning kebabs and a proud confessional about her skills for her trouble. However, Michaela also expresses some fear, as her challenge beasting may make her a threat, and she’s worried everyone else knows it. Michaela suggests that perhaps she hold back.

Oh Michaela. Michaela, Michaela, Michaela. That ship sailed a LONG time ago. We are well past the point where you can take it back. Just own it and run with it.

Bodily functions? Did I just change the channel? I thought I was watching “Survivor”, but this looks like “Family Guy”? No, our reward food has not, for once, manifested to what Dawn Meehan (“Survivor South Pacific”) would call a diarrhea fest, but instead in a fart-fest. So, it’s the “Survivor San Juan del Sur” version then? No, not a whole lot comes of this other than Michelle being paranoid about being the only woman left on Vanua. She should be paranoid, but not because she’s a woman. Rather, she should be paranoid because everyone on her tribe really IS out to get her. Or would that make her not paranoid?

AAGH! ELECTION TALK! You planned this, CBS. You somehow KNEW this episode would air the week before the election, just to make us miserable didn’t you? ADMIT IT! Well, at least there’s no way to make election talk any MORE cringe worthy…

AAGH! TAYLOR PONTIFICATING ABOUT BEING A MILLENNIAL! HE MADE IT WORSE! Yes, even the relative death of the “Millennials vs. Gen-X” twist cannot silence Taylor, as he has to bring annoying generational talk into irksome election talk. Now, to his credit, Taylor’s point about the electoral college being an outdated way of holding elections is actually a fair point, but couldn’t he have said that WITHOUT the generational comment?

Now, for all my complaints, this scene DOES actually have a point. While Adam is away gathering wood, Taylor beings to enact his revenge, planting the seed in Jessica and Ken’s minds that Adam had given him his word to not vote for Figgy, and then went back on it. This is actually halfway decent strategy. After all, one CONSTANT downside of betrayal is that it makes you lest trustworthy overall. Taylor is working that very well, helped by the fact that, as Jessica points out, Taylor is a simple, honest guy. There’s not a lot going on up there, which makes him far easier to read and manipulate than a strategist like Adam. Having him along, rather than people like Adam might therefore seem an appealing prospect. Time will tell if this comes to anything, but Taylor gets at least ONE feather in his cap this season.

Finally, FINALLY we get some insight into the inner workings of the Ikabula tribe. Granted, it was pretty clear from the beginning that the old Vanua would dominate, but now we get more insight into their politics. They overall don’t care who goes, by Sunday has been putting on a nice face for them. Bret, conversely, is under suspicion. He’s been throwing out the story that he’s a funeral director, not a police officer. Hello, plotline that came out of absolutely NOWHERE! Bret’s justification, unsurprisingly, is that cops tend to have a bad time on the show, and looking at the history of “Survivor”, he’s got a point. Jessie Camacho of “Survivor Africa”, Amy O’Hara of “Survivor Guatemala”, Betsy Bolan of “Survivor Samoa”, Sarah Lacina of “Survivor Cagayan”, and many others, all cops, all gone. Granted, many would cite Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”) as a counter-example, but we can also agree that Tony’s a breed unto himself. However, it’s also worth pointing out that, statistics or not, there’s really no correlation between these people being cops and their fates. In each of the examples listed above, there were extenuating circumstances for their evictions, none of which had to do with their professions. Jessie was dehydrated, Amy was injured and screwed by a tribe swap, Sarah went power-mad, and Betsy was on a season with Russell Hantz. Still, can’t say his caution isn’t justified.

Bret comes off as an ok liar from what we see of him, but evidently not good enough. Hannah calls him out EXACTLY as a cop after he and Sunday leave, with Jay agreeing, and the rest of the tribe not trusting Bret. This seems to seal Bret’s future fate, but kudos to Hannah for figuring that out. It’s one of the few times this season where she’s really seemed to have an Aubry-like knack for the game. Of course, it’s one instance out of many negative ones, so I still don’t support the comparison.

We come to our immunity challenge, which is once again a combination challenge, but not nearly as epic. Tribes toss coconuts into a basket, making it heavy enough to drop a banner with numbers. These numbers go to a combination lock, which gives one a key to unlock a slingshot. Once unlocked, the slingshot is used to knock over targets, with the first two tribes to knock over all five targets winning immunity. This challenge has elements from a few older ones, notably the coconut tossing from “Survivor Micronesia” and the slingshot from “Survivor South Pacific”. However, while it does ok, it is technically a rehash of a challenge, and doesn’t come across as that epic, so I can’t really give it my blessing.

Before we talk about the outcome of the challenge, let me talk about how happy I am that we even HAVE an immunity challenge here. Speculation on the show about when the merge will come has always bugged me, because, as demonstrated by “Survivor Thailand”, there’s no guarantee as to when it will come. However, that argument falls apart each and every season that the merge happens after episode 6 (episode 5 in some cases, but it’s early in either case). I get that it’s a part of the game, and I’ve gone on record saying that the merge phase is overall more interesting than the tribal phase, but I’d like to see variety, rather than the merge happening at pretty much exactly the same point. You know when was the last time the merge happened after episode 7? “Survivor Blood vs. Water”. Three years ago. Yeah, we’re well past due.

As to the challenge itself, there’s less back-and-forth than the reward challenge, but it’s still there. Tackle gets an early lead and keeps it. Ikabula puts up a good fight, but makes a fatal mistake in not having challenge beast Michaela work the slingshot, instead giving the job to Bret. Granted, they do later give the job to Michaela, and she sucks, but I’ll talk about that shortly. Meanwhile, Vanua falls behind during the coconut toss, and then a panic attack by Michelle on the combination lock puts them further behind Not for nothing is Chris on their tribe, though. He powers through the slingshot person, giving Vanua a fun, narrow victory. Probst points out that Ikabula will be going to Tribal Council for the first time as a tribe, and asks Sunday how long it will be before the scheming begins: minutes or seconds. Sunday gives a standard answer of minutes, justifying it as the tribe getting along well, and despite being underwhelming, I actually kind of like this answer. You see, most would be inclined to give a glib answer, but Sunday just answers honestly and sincerely. It’s refreshing to see that every once in a while.

It also turns out that Sunday grossly UNDERESTIMATED the length of time until the scheming set it. The tribe mopes for about a half-hour before getting up and doing things. Specifically, presumably to make sure that her tribe doesn’t do something stupid like vote her off, or even just agonize over who to vote for, Michaela does seashell math to show that, as long as either Bret or Sunday go, they’re in good shape. Actually quite a logical plan, but Michaela’s brashness finally begins to work against her in earnest. Jay, being the member of the “Triforce” alliance with a brain, starts to think that MAYBE Michaela, with brains as well as strength, is just too smart for her own good. Being Jay, though, this is still a dumb idea. I get that Michaela is a threat, but as she’s demonstrated this episode, she’s a LOYAL threat. Given that the old Millennials are a fractious bunch, loyalty is a premium right now. Vote off Michaela at this juncture, and you lose an important number. Assuming a merge next episode or the episode after, the best you can hope for would be a 7-5 split favoring the old Millennials. Given that Adam and Zeke are on the outs, and we the audience know the merge is coming next episode, making the split 7-6, this is very dangerous. I’m not saying the old Gen-X group is a tight bunch, but I think they know opportunity when they see it. This is a chance not to be missed, and they’ll probably unite to take out a fractured group of old Millennials. Keeping Michaela keeps your numbers up, and makes your coalition more united.

Fortunately, as we see no evidence of Jay talking to Bret or Sunday about all of this, it’s not going to happen. A valiant attempt at misdirection, but one that fails nonetheless.

Still, you can’t say Tribal Council is a bore. Everyone puts on their best Stepford Smiler face, and acts like one big happy family, when in reality things are about to be torn apart. And we get Michaela being mad at Probst, this time for the merge not happening when expected. Always funny.

So, the votes come in and Bret is naturally… wait, Michaela is getting mad? They DIDN’T!

They did!

Yes, in an entertainingly stupid move, Jay flips the script on Michaela, getting her out before the merge. Even out before the jury. For all the reasons outlined above, this is a stupid move, and one that probably cost Jay the game. Plus, as we saw in the preview for next episode, it may even cost him further allies, with Hannah feeling betrayed by the vote. From a viewer standpoint, this was also a huge loss. On a season that’s had trouble sustaining a good reputation for a character from one episode to the next, Michaela was a ray of fun that never lost her luster. As I said before, a real “Classic ‘Survivor’” type of character. In fact, one could almost compare her to Rupert Boneham (“Survivor Pearl Islands”): Not so good at strategy, but wears her heart on her sleeve, is a challenge beast, and is very quotable. And we don’t get to see her jury game. At least she gives us a good rant against Jay on her way out. Right up there with Judd Sergeant’s “Scumbags” speech from “Survivor Guatemala”.

As I’ve said before, stupidity is often more entertaining than being good at the game, and this is no exception. While the misdirection has been ok this season, this one really got me. Add onto that a lot of good quotes, strategizing from all three tribes, and a number of come-from-behind victories, and I’d dare say this episode is best of the season. Even if we did lose Michaela.

Up through now, I’ve been hoping that future episodes would be good. I don’t have to hope for this next one. Between the merge episode usually being exciting, and fissures in the alliances on both sides, this should be one hell of an upcoming episode.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor MGX” Episode 6: OH YEAH!

Ladies and gentlemen, readers of all ages, it is my great honor to welcome you to this year’s “‘SURVIVOR’ DUNCE PARADE”! Yes, for every smart strategic move on “Survivor”, there are at least half a dozen dumb ones, and while the strategic game may be the best aspect of the show, the bad gameplay is often as entertaining. So, we’re here to celebrate it tonight! The bungling of easy challenges! The blatant calling-out of allies! Revealing secrets that were actually not secrets! Giving up immunity (ok, that one didn’t happen, but a celebration of all things stupid on “Survivor” would not be complete without mentioning the dumbest of dumb moves). And we have a spectacular grand marshall this year. The paragon of all things stupid from the most recent episode, put your various appendages together for MR. TAYLOR LEE STOCKER!

What? You thought it was going to be Figgy? Well true, she’d have been a worthy candidate, but at LEAST she had the sense to question, even for a single second, Adam’s loyalty. Taylor? Blindly faithful up until the end. And while he may not have made the stupid mistakes that Figgy made, I get the sense that he was complicit in them, which makes him guilty enough in my eyes. Or maybe I just wanted to fake you out in that opening paragraph.

Our return from Tribal Council is surprisingly subdued, but united votes will do that. Our actual surprise here comes from one of the positive comments. With every vote, there’s a virtual guarantee that at least SOMEONE will be happy with the results, usually the person who orchestrated it. Therefore, one would expect Chris to be happy, since he got his “revenge” on David and CeCe, or perhaps Zeke, who managed to survive despite his original tribe being down in numbers. But no, our positive outlook tonight comes from David, who tells us that people he can’t trust need to go. Really, David? CECE was the one you couldn’t trust. You’re surrounded by two members of the opposing tribe, and stuck with a guy you’ve been against pretty much from the beginning, and yet CECE wasn’t trustworthy. Go soak your head.

Heading over to Ikabula, our designated narrator Jay is at it once again. Since this is Jay talking, we know it’s either going to be talking about perseverance, or the benefits of being a millennial. What’s that? It’s both? HUZZAH! Jay gets a little teary over needing to take care of the tribe, which would be a sweet scene were it not immediately followed by the incredibly selfish act of idol hunting. He takes Will along, so I guess it’s KIND OF teamwork-y, but even that’s a stretch.

Picking up a random bamboo stick ultimately yields Jay his reward, as he’s fortunately not so stupid as to overlook the tribe symbol. Having only marginally less trouble than David at breaking sticks, Jay eventually gets the idol, and he and Will take a second to admire it. Jay does endear himself to me slightly by badly singing the “Survivor” theme song while finding the idol. Many former contestants will tell you that they hear the song when important things happen in their game, and it’s nice to hear it vocalized so blatantly. And while it was hilarious to have the actual theme song play over Jay’s singing, I must protest the fact that you’ll play the intro music HERE, but not actually show the intro on the show. But back to Jay and Will. Smartly, they decide to keep the idol between themselves.

CRASH!

ME: Michaela?

MICHAELA: No, it’s the Kool-Aid Man. Of course it’s Michaela! I’m here to bust up this little idol party!

ME: That’s all well and good, but did you have to bust up my apartment as well? I have to sleep here.

MICHAELA: Sleep is for the week! I’m sleeping on a crap-ass beach, how do you think I feel?

ME: A crap-ass beach you don’t have to pay for.

MICHAELA: You sayin’ I get stuff handed to me? I worked my way through college like I work my way through challenges. You really want me gone? This tribe is gonna turn into another Angkor without me.

ME: You’re tribe’s not here right now. And I’ve got a blog to do. You value hard work? Let me do mine.

MICHAELA: Fine, just remember, I am the quote machine!

(Michaela jumps out the gaping hole in my apartment wall.)

Hmm, perhaps it’s time I start monetizing this blog. In any case, it cannot be denied that what we’ve got here is another hilarious Michaela moment. No sooner have Will and Jay agreed to keep the idol between the two of them, but we pan over to Michaela bursting out of the underbrush, having just wondered her way into valuable information. Granted, this isn’t entirely on her, as the camerawork and editing help make this scene as funny as it is, but it’s still great. Plus, I love her comment comparing Will and Jay to huddled-up eskimos. There’s something about the juxtaposition of eskimos and “Survivor” that is inherently hilarious, and is yet another feather in Michaela’s quote cap. She also says that she’ll keep a lid on things for now, but that she knows that Jay won’t play that idol on her, and so will bust things up for her own benefit. A smart way to play, but I want you to remember this potential disloyalty to Jay for the future, because it’ll be a bit hypocritical of her down the road.

We head off to our reward challenge, which is a good old-fashioned blindfold challenge. This is your pretty standard “Get the puzzle pieces and solve the puzzle.” type one, but what makes it stand out is how sadistic it is. Usually, the most you have to do to get a puzzle piece in these sorts of challenges is untie it. This one gives us real puzzle-type obstacles, usually revolving around undoing something to reach the puzzle pieces. But the true sadism is the puzzle itself. As puzzles on “Survivor” go, this one is basically an 8-piece picture puzzle, not much more complicated than a child’s jigsaw puzzle, but usually people are allowed to do the puzzle without the blindfold. Here, we’ve got the caller doing the puzzle, but directing the BLINDFOLDED players in doing it, adding a layer of difficulty never before seen on the show. And I love it. It’s a simple challenge, all things considered, but deceptively tricky. My only real complaint is that we didn’t get an explanation of what the obstacles were before the challenge, making it hard to follow at times, but the sheer sadism of it wins out in the end.

Thus begins the Figgy stupidity. With Vanua’s return, and the revelation of the demise of CeCe, Figgy is ecstatic that Michelle is still in the game. Oh, and Zeke of course. Can’t forget about Zeke. She likes him too! Kind of. Sort of. Not really. I really shouldn’t have to spell out why calling out your allies is a bad idea, but I will at least play devil’s advocate and point out that there is precedent for such callings out to work out well. The most famous instance would be Scout declaring how happy she was to see Twila in the merge episode of “Survivor Vanuatu”, which Twila notes is kind of a stupid idea, but the fact that the pair placed third and second respectively somewhat undermines the point. Precedent does not override basic logic, though, and I must still call it a horrible move by Figgy.

Remember that puzzle that I said was really simple and easy to solve, apart from the difficulty of directing someone who can’t see in doing it? Yeah, Figgy sucks at that. Takali gets a pretty major lead, largely due to David sucking at anything challenge related (though I’m inclined to give him a pass on this one since it’s often the skill of the caller, not the runner, that determines skill in these sorts of situations), but can’t solve the puzzle. And you can’t make any arguments about a lack of good communication ruining it. This isn’t a situation like the Jerri and Amber missed connection on “Survivor The Australian Outback”, where it was clear that the pair just weren’t getting their point across. Figgy was getting Ken to do what she wanted. It’s just that she couldn’t solve one of the simplest puzzles in “Survivor” history.

Speaking of “Survivor” history, we get a repeat of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, as Hannah starts to feel faint in the heat. I would like to take this time to remind you that Hannah sat out this challenge. At least Debbie, Cydney, and Caleb had the excuse of playing a long challenge. Probst, wisely not wanting to take many risks (“Survivor Kaoh Rong” is doubtless on his mind as well), and tells her to sit in the shade. She still has tingly cheeks, though, so Dr. Joe is called in, and diagnoses a panic attack. Since we got no hype about a medical evacuation prior to this season getting started, nothing comes of it, and it barely counts as a footnote in the episode.

Vanua, despite having David on their team, manages to come in first, largely thanks to Michelle being the only one competent at puzzles doing the calling this challenge. This earns them a variety of baked goods, which they indulge in, while also dumping praise on Michelle. Amongst those with a brain is Zeke, who begins to think that if Figgy is tight with Michelle, then perhaps Michelle ought to go, since Figgy isn’t exactly his friend. Not a bad thought, but should Vanua go to Tribal Council again (a likely occurrence, since they’re really the only tribe we get any strategy from pre-immunity challenge), I don’t think that would be the smartest move for Zeke. Yes, Michelle is a threat, and yes, Figgy calling her out is a problem, but you have to think short-term as well. Right now, David is most likely the next to go. True, he has an idol, but he can probably be blindsided, and Zeke doesn’t have a way of knowing that at this point. This puts Zeke in the power position in future votes, deciding between sticking with Michelle or Chris. If Michelle goes, by contrast, then Chris is really in the power position, deciding between David and Zeke. Besides, in a sense Figgy calling out Michelle specifically makes the pair less threatening, since everyone else will target them. Can’t fault his logic overall, but it’s just not the best logic.

Hannah talks about panic attacks at Ikabula. Nothing comes of it. Moving on…

We FINALLY get to see Takali in this episode, and it’s time to board the stupid train once again! Figgy and Taylor are once again discussing the merits of revealing their “secret romance” to the group. Figgy tries to redeem herself in the eyes of the audience by being the member of the pair to question whether doing so would be smart, but Taylor shoots her down by pointing out that they’ve got the numbers anyway. I would remind you that Adam has been on the bottom of your “Triforce” alliance, and has every reason to get rid of half of a power couple such as yourselves. But then again, when did we ever equate Taylor with strategy? The pair reveal their romance, which both Jessica and Ken take with hilarious sarcastic surprise. Nothing less for our two morons of the season!

Moving onto our immunity challenge, we continue our trend of standard challenges that are secretly diabolical. Two tribe members race across a balance beam in the water, and then up a post to retrieve three bags of coconuts apiece. Once all six bags are back and hung on a platform, two other tribe members open them, looking for three balls mixed in with the coconuts. Once the balls are found, they then race to get those balls through a table maze into three slots at the end, with the first two tribes to fill their slots winning immunity. As I say, this’d be a pretty basic obstacle-course type challenge were it not for two factors. First is that pole they need to get up, which is hard-core. As far as we can see, there’s no ladder rungs or anything, it’s basically climbing up a small pyramid and then a thin pole. Pretty gnarly stuff. Second is our table maze, which breaks the standard norm for “Survivor”. Usually, a table maze is just that: a maze of a table with holes in it. Sometimes there’s paths, sometimes there’s swiss cheese. There’s a sentence I never thought I’d write. But overall, this one stand out by having raised obstacles to get around instead of holes. Judging by the overall performance seen in this challenge, I’d say our players weren’t expecting that.

Another nice thing is that we get a back-and forth challenge. Ken falls off the balance beam early, setting Takali behind, while David’s relative lack of suckage keeps Vanua in the game. That’s relative, though, as strong hauls by Jay and Ken, plus some good running by Taylor, puts Takali back in the lead. Then, Ikabula overtakes everybody on the table maze. This is, once again, largely thanks to Michaela. In true old-school “Survivor” hero style, she pretty much single handedly wins them the challenge, even compensating for Hannah’s shaky performance.

Michaela’s challenge performance costs here dearly, though. No, I’m not talking about the victory in and of itself. In terms of her overall game, though, it may have been a Pyrrhic Victory. For all that I’ve praised Michaela this season (and will continue to praise her), this challenge showed some cracks in her game. First, while I won’t deny that Hannah’s challenge performance was doubtless frustrating, Michaela snapping at her to shut up was the wrong thing to do, and especially the wrong thing to do repeatedly. Michaela has a sharp tongue, which we kind of saw in episode 2 with her contempt for “Figtails” (which, as a side note, is actually a pretty cute couple name), but here it really comes out in full force. She can protest that she loves Hannah all she wants, but it’s clear that Hannah wasn’t happy with it, and it implies a weak social game on Michaela’s part. Not a good weakness to have in a game designated “A social experiment.”

But her second mistake? Well, while Ikabula was pulling ahead, Zeke and Michelle were struggling for Vanua. Not that the Jessicas (yes, “Figgy” is really named Jessica, look it up), were faring much better on Takali, but it was pretty clear Takali had the edge. Therefore, Michaela decided to take a page from the book of Laura Morett (“Survivor Samoa”), and call out how to win the challenge, a la “Survivor Blood vs. Water”. Now, why would she do this? Well, the obvious justification, which is what she goes with, is that despite neither Zeke nor Michelle going home last episode, Vanua is still technically the only tribe in which the “Millennials” have no majority. Therefore, it’s much easier to guarantee that your tribe gains a bigger majority by ensuring that the tribe that has majority Millennials (that isn’t yourself) goes to Tribal Council is to help Vanua. A fair justification, and after all, didn’t all call that move “brilliant” when done by Laura? True, but there’s a couple of key points here that really take away from Michaela’s overall game here. Ensuring a majority-Millennial tribe goes to Tribal Council would be a smart move IF “Millennials vs. Gen-X” were to hold true until the end. But the tide is clearly shifting, as both Vanua and Takali are developing cross-generational alliances. Game theory dictates that the only smart move at this point is to jump on that train, since attempting to from an original-tribe alliance will most likely fail. There’s incentive on both sides to work with the other. Granted, the one tribe that DOESN’T seem to be following this pattern is Ikabula, so perhaps Michaela can be forgiven for not recognizing this. Still, it highlights her old-school gameplay style, which is entertaining to watch, but doesn’t bode well for her success. After all, the reason that old-school gameplay got supplanted by new-school gameplay is because the latter beats the former. Look at “Survivor Cambodia”, where even old-school players had to delve into new-school tactics to be at all successful. But even if you forgive Michaela for not having her finger on the pulse of the game, there’s one key difference between her situation and Laura’s that makes the move smart for Laura but not for Michaela. That difference is Redemption Island.

Consider for a moment the fact that people sitting on Redemption Island are effectively out of the game. True, producer twists can have them influence the game, and they aren’t being fed or well-cared for, but people on Redemption Island have been voted out. By and large, their strategic game is over, and it all comes down to the challenges. Even if people took umbrage with Laura’s helping Tina, no one could do anything about it. In contrast, Michaela still is in the game, and people CAN hold it against her. As I discussed with Figgy talking so much about Michelle at the reward challenge, revealing one’s hand is risky at best on “Survivor”, and more often than not will come back to haunt you. If this season does go down the path it seems to be going down, then Michaela being hard line “Millennials all the way.”, plus being a challenge beast, will only make her a prime target. Not to mention, she clearly wasn’t thinking this way earlier. Threatening in confessional to busy Jay’s game over an idol is hardly the stuff of “Go Millennials” gameplay. Frankly, Michaela’s help seems to come right out of nowhere, and it’s not for the better.

Plus, I’d point out that despite Laura’s helping Tina seeming to be a good move at the time, since Tina is ultimately the one who beat Laura for a chance to go back in the game, it didn’t help her very much in the end.

Michaela’s help gives Vanua second place, and I have to admit, this was really good misdirection from the producers. They gave us the strategic talk from Takali the episode BEFORE they go to Tribal Council, so that they don’t need to give us any this episode, and can make it look like Vanua will go instead. Well-played, well-played.

The discussion we get back at camp is pretty much what you’d expect. Adam is caught between two halves, Figgy and Taylor are overconfident, and Ken and Jessica try and swing Adam. Really, the only stand-out argument comes from Ken, who both manages to make things very personal (swearing to have Adam’s back all the way), and a logical argument, making the obvious point of “Why would you be loyal to an alliance where you’re on the bottom?” But I will admit that this DOES give Michaela’s move slightly more of a point. By calling out a Millennial majority alliance, she puts more pressure on everyone to stick in that alliance. Not doing so would seem to offend her, and Adam might need her vote down the line. Is it worth it to get rid of Figgy at the potential cost of Michelle?

Yes. Yes it is. Unlike some other votes this season, this one is a clear right/wrong choice. As Ken says, Adam has no reason to stick with a majority that put him on the bottom. Neither does Zeke. Should a merge come next episode (which I don’t think it will, but I also have a hard time seeing the old Gen-X people losing more players in future Tribal Councils), the you’ve got eight former Millennials and six former Gen-X people left. If Adam and Zeke flip, the majority flips, and since they’re on the bottom, they have every reason to flip. It could be argued that they’re trading the bottom of one alliance for another, but even if the old Gen-X can unite for a vote or two, those divisions are still there, and can still be exploited. Plus, given the choice between being on the bottom of the majority that will PROBABLY vote you out (the Gen-X side) versus the majority that will DEFINITELY vote you out (the Millennials side), better to go with the former every time. Granted that logic didn’t really work for Cochran on “Survivor South Pacific”, but no one said these were guarantees. Plus, let’s say Adam DOES stay loyal. Now he has Figgy as an ally, who, I would remind you, is stupid enough to reveal valuable alliance information in front of the enemy. More trouble than it’s worth.

We get probably our best Tribal Council of the season this evening. Oh, not because of the strategy talk; that’s all pretty standard stuff for a tribe of five, but from our alpha couple of Figgy and Taylor. After a masterful deflection of a Probst question by Adam (focussing on the “Does Figgy look at you the same way as Taylor?” part takes the subject away from the “Can you be trusted?” part), Figgy and Taylor blather on about their love. This would be pretty standard stuff, but Probst, wouldn’t you know it, is an ordained minister, and offers to marry them on the spot. AND THEY ACTUALLY CONSIDER IT! They ultimately don’t go through, unfortunately, because wouldn’t THAT have been a Tribal Council. Shame on you! You are contestants on a reality show! Have less restraint! Entertain me, peasants! The strategy talk holds up ok on its own, but there’s little originality to it, and frankly, it’s all overshadowed by proposed marriage.

Sure enough, little miss stupid herself is sent home, and the Hallelujah Chorus can be hear from the throats of all “Survivor” fans. The Taylor/Figgy love fest was getting annoying, and Figgy made such a mess of herself that it was quite satisfying to see her go. And, as I say, it was the right decision. Figgy was a liability of an alliance member, and she was against you. True, you’ve potentially put Taylor on the warpath against you, but he’ll probably be gone at the merge, if not before. Should Takali keep losing after that, well, Adam does have a hidden immunity idol, mitigating the risk of this move backfiring. A nice smart move in sea of entertaining stupidity this episode.

For all that I normally rant against stupidity on “Survivor”, there comes a point where it’s just too hilarious not to love. This episode passed that threshold in the first 15 minutes. Best episode of the season so far. A little bit of strategy there, but mostly fun, if poor, gameplay. Should be fun to see what depths we will dive to next.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor MGX” Cast Assessment

I’m normally not one to complain about writing this blog. I love “Survivor”, I’m not getting paid, and I just consider the blog an extension of my enjoyment. But I REALLY hope you people appreciate what I’m going through with this one. The particular twist to this season has made reading through the cast biographies UNBEARABLE! If I have to hear rants about “Trophies for participating.” or “Free-Spriritedness” one more time, I’LL STOP WATCHING THE SHOW!

Ok, perhaps that’s a bit extreme. After all, I love this show too much for even THIS annoyingness to put me off of it, and given the twist of the season, we’re doubtless going to be hearing confessionals on these subjects a lot. Which brings me to the point I’ve made before, but bears repeating, that THIS IS A DUMB TWIST! Apart from being a thinly-disguised rehash of “Survivor Nicaragua”, CLEARLY seeding this season for success right off the bat, it just antagonizes two groups, that, otherwise, probably wouldn’t be at each other’s throats. Pretty much all of the points that drive me up the wall with these people come from the question “What does it mean to be (insert generation here)?”, a question that would not be asked were it not for the sake of the twist. Yes, we’ve had similar forced divisions with twists like “Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty”, but there at least, the division was kind of already there to begin with, and didn’t feel like it was bringing the modern world into “Survivor”. Hell, about the only connection I can think of is Carl Bilancione bitching about “Generation X” on “Survivor Africa”, and even that’s stretching it. Point being, it makes me dislike this cast right from the beginning just because of the twist they were cast on.

And truth be told, that’s a shame. There’s a lot to like about this cast overall, and while they may not be the stuff of legends, no one’s teeth-gratingly annoying, and like “Survivor Kaoh Rong” before it, we’ve very few if any generic cast fodder. Had they been put on a different season, I daresay this cast would have been one I’d be raving about up until the show starts. As it stands, they get a “Meh, pretty good, I guess.” pretty much entirely due to the twist.

But just who are these unlucky wunderkinds? Let’s meet them now, in no particular order (though divided up by tribes).

VANUA (Millennials)

Michelle Schubert (28, Missionary Recruiter, Yakima, WA): Ok, while I do think this cast has a lot of potential, I will concede that there are a LOT of very religious people this time around, which I’ve been wary of since having watched “Survivor South Pacific”. We’ve seen in the past that such excessive religion can ruin an otherwise good season. That said, a lot of my fear in this regard is my own personal bias showing, and by and large, I’d say while the people CLAIM to be very religious in their biographies, it doesn’t show too much. That is, except for Michelle. She’s not the one I’d have predicted (occupation aside), but Michelle is our Bible-thumper for the season. Is she irredeemable? Certainly not! As I say, there’s a fair amount of religious people this season, so she’ll definitely find people to relate to. She doesn’t seem to want to let her religion hold her back game-wise, and she does seem to have a good sense of nerdy humor (“Settlers of Catan” was mentioned as a favorite pastime, which always gets a thumbs-up from me, and when asked to give three words to describe herself, she answers “Hungry, hungry hippos”, which is just the kind of non-sequitur I can get behind). But on the whole, I think she’s just too religious, even for this group, and may be in a bit over her head. Definitely expect her out before the merge, and to be somewhat annoying via religious talk.

Taylor Lee Stocker (24, Ski Instructor, Postfall, ID): Ok, this cast is actually more than just generic people, I swear! Man, we are not starting out on the right foot this time around. All the bland people at the beginning. Taylor is your generic good-looking guy we have to have every season, so the women can ogle some guy without a shirt. Actually, it occurs to me that good pecs are an odd quality to have in a ski instructor. Well, moving on, Taylor is unfortunately our main source of arrogance and annoyance from the Millennial side of things in terms of talking about “free spiritedness” and whatnot, but apart from that, he’s just bland, and shall do as all generic good-looking guys do: pad along quietly until the merge, then last a bit longer due to the major strategic threats picking one another off, then getting offed himself for being a challenge threat. And nothing of value will be lost.

Michaela Bradshaw (25, Vacation Club Sales, Ft. Worth, TX): Ah, now this is what we’re talking about! Michaela is actually one of my favorite players this season (not my absolute favorite, we’ll get to him), and she’s also my female pick to win the whole shebang! Michaela is on the younger side of things, even for this cast, and certainly seems like she knows how to kick back and have fun. At the same time, I don’t see the flakiness in her that I see in a LOT of members of this tribe. She doesn’t talk like your stereotypical young black woman (a rarity for this show), and you can tell just from looking at her that, while she doesn’t necessarily show it brazenly, she’s got a fire going in her, a determination that suits her well. As with most seasons of “Survivor”, I feel that the winner is most likely going to be the player who can best balance what is needed to win this season. As those qualities often relate to the twist of the season (due to everyone on said season INCESSANTLY TALKING ABOUT IT) the winner this time around, I say, will be someone who can balance the carefree nature of Millennials and the work ethic of Gen X. Michaela, more than anyone, exemplifies this. She’s in no way a flaky party girl, but she’s unassuming enough that she can fake it. When she’s forced to interact with the other tribe, she’ll be able to use her life story and general attitude to fit in with them. She’s also another one I was worried about being overly religious, but from what I’ve seen, it barely informs her character, meaning she can use it to get in with the religious people on the season, but not offend the others. It’s a good balance, and add onto that a healthy bout of social awareness, and I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Michaela DOESN’T win! In fact, I’d compare her favorably to Vecepia Towry (“Survivor Marquesas”): Able to blend in wherever she goes, and almost sneak her way to a win.

Zeke Smith (28, Asset Manager, Brooklyn, NY): Ooh, Zeke. Poor, poor Zeke. You all remember Zeke, right? He was featured prominently in the “Next Season” preview at the end of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”. Guy with the loud Hawaiian shirt and the tacky moustache? Yeah, he’s that guy. If you wanted further reason to cringe, his mannerisms are regrettably reminiscent of Colton Cumbie (“Survivor One World”). Not to say that he’s anything at all like Colton! No, Zeke is MUCH more self-aware, self-effacing, and generally has a good attitude for life. Jokes aside, I like the guy. He’s got good spirit, is a real fan of the show, and is just generally going to be fun to watch. At least, in his brief time on the show, he’s going to be fun to watch. Zeke, I suspect, was picked in early marketing for the show because he stands out so much, which makes sense. You’re selling a season to an audience, you want to use your most memorable people. That said, early on in “Survivor”, and I don’t think I can emphasize this enough, STANDING OUT IS NOT A GOOD THING! Zeke is clearly a different breed from the rest of his tribe, even joking branding them “Children” in his bio, and for this, he is toast. Too easy a target too early. Granted, you could argue that he’s got the skills to blend in with the other tribe, and I agree if he makes it that far then he’ll be ok, but the odds against that are just so slim. Unlike someone like Michaela, Zeke just can’t blend. It’s not in his nature. Zeke’s out before even the tribe swap, no question there.

Hannah Shapiro (24, Barista, West Hollywood, CA): It would seem that “Survivor” is attempting to have more nerds on each season, and as a nerd, I am grateful. However, unlike some other nerds we’ve seen who break stereotypes, Hannah fits all too well into a “nerdy” stereotype. I hope she does better than I think she’ll do, because she seems to genuinely love the show and has a lot of endearing qualities. Unfortunately, the impression I get from her is a horrible combination of “In over her head” and “Out-there”. Granted I labeled Aubry Bracco a similar way last season, and you see how that turned out, but the impression I get from Hannah is less “Aubry” and more “Shirin” (“Survivor Worlds Apart”). And I’m talking pre-merge Shirin, where she was hopelessly out of touch and just generally creeping everyone else out. Hannah definitely has it in her bring out the game of at least post-merge Shirin, if not even an Aubry-type game, but my gut says she’s yet another pre-merge boot.

Jessica “Figgy” Figueroa (24, Bartender, Nashville, TN): Remember, I said this cast was MOSTLY devoid of generic players. Quirky nickname aside, Figgy doesn’t really stand out for me one way or the other. She could be one of the craftiest players ever, or she could be a complete flop. I honestly cannot tell. Since I do have to make some sort of prediction, though, I’m going to say that Figgy won’t make the merge. The one thing about her that DID leave an impact was talking about her latina heritage making her “spicy” or a bit bombastic. Pulled off right, this can be a real game-maker. However, it’s a difficult personality style to play with, and I don’t see enough from Figgy to really make me believe she can. She’ll definitely be around for several episodes, since while I don’t see her making the merge, I do see her coming close, but don’t expect her to win.

Mari Takahashi (31, Professional Gamer, Los Angeles, CA): You will forgive me for ripping off a Dalton Ross joke from “Survivor Exile Island”, but it’s just too perfect here. I for one, am glad that “Survivor” was kind enough to allow Ken Hoang (“Survivor Gabon”) to have a sex change and compete on the show again. He’s always been one of my personal favorites, and an underrated gem from a long-neglected season of the show. Joking aside, Mari actually has very few similarities to Ken, beyond the pair being Asian-American professional video game players. Ken’s arc was all about overcoming shyness, and having an unassuming demeanor. Mari simply EXUDES confidence, and looks like she can take on the world. And I like it. There’s something infectious about her kind of cheeriness that I just can’t help but love. On top of that, the woman’s clearly got game, shown both through what little strategic discussion we get from her and from her absolutely BUILT body! I’ll admit, I may have a wee bit of a crush, though not nearly to the degree that I had on someone like Aubry or Julia Landauer (“Survivor Caramoan”). Still, in the span of a short time, Mari’s guile and intellect have won me over. I don’t see her winning, just because she IS so brazen in a lot of ways, but I see her doing well. She won’t be going down without a fight, that’s for certain, so I’d say look for her demise around the mid-merge point, when she just can’t win immunity anymore.

Justin “Jay” Starrett (27, Real Estate Agent, Ft. Lauderdale, FL): Jay ALMOST fell into the same category as Taylor earlier, but he’s got just enough of an edge to him to stand out. The pair are similar, both in terms of looks and exposing about the supposed virtues of millennials, but Jay seems like he really wants to be here, and that he’s got a bit more going on than Taylor. He doesn’t hide it very well, but it’s there. Sadly, his poor job of hiding it will be his undoing. While Taylor can pretty much coast by until the merge, Jay will be seen as both a physical and strategic threat, meaning his demise will be coming slight sooner, before the merge. After the tribe swap, most certainly, but unless he can hide his darker, more intellectual side better than he showed here, the man will be picked off by the opposing tribe.

Adam Klein (25, Homeless Shelter Manager, San Francisco, CA): I’ve been pretty down on the guys for this tribe thus far. We’ve got two who I don’t like but might do ok, and one guy I enjoy but who’s probably not long for the game. Isn’t there anyone who might break this pattern? As you might guess from the hyperbolic introduction to him, there is, and his name is Adam, my personal favorite player on the season. Adam’s got enough nerdy qualities to endear himself to me, but not enough to be truly stereotypical. The guy’s also got a philosophy on life I can identify with: make a difference rather than make money. Granted, this could mark a short time in the game, and he’s certainly not my male pick to win the whole thing, but the guy’s got more going for him than you’d think. He’s another fan of the show, which almost always bodes well, and the fact that he’s not in-your-face about it can only help him. While he does seem to have his moral code, it’s pretty clear he can toss that out the window, and he’s smart enough (particularly given his manager experience) to keep up the pace strategically. What brings him down is a potential lack of focus, as well as just being a bit of an obvious schemer as the numbers whittle down around him. The latter is fairly self explanatory, but as for the former, well, the poor guy’s mom has cancer, and he’s playing for her. As Jenna Morasca demonstrated on “Survivor The Amazon”, being distracted by an ill family member does not guarantee loss, and can even help you at times, but it’s just too big of a risk for me to give Adam my full pick. The guy’s got a lot going on, though, so I expect him to make it fairly far. Mid-to-late merge, probably. Then someone will figure out his game, and he’ll be gone.

Will Wahl (18, High School Student, Long Valley, NJ): Will has the distinction of being the youngest person ever to compete on “Survivor”. I hope he enjoys that distinction, because he won’t be around long enough to make an impact any other way. I’m not normally opposed to a player on the basis of age alone, but the fact is that it does take at least a certain emotional maturity to play “Survivor” really well, and that’s more likely to come in an older person. Granted, age is no guarantee of maturity, nor youth immaturity (see Dan Foley on “Survivor Worlds Apart” for an example of the former, and Julia Sokolowski on “Survivor Kaoh Rong” for an example of the latter), but in the case of Will, I don’t see much of anything to indicate otherwise, so I have to go with the null hypothesis in this case. Now, he is a fan of the show, but that alone does not overcome his potential age problem. He might be able to get away with PLAYING older, since his voice is WAY too deep for his looks, but I feel like he’ll betray himself eventually, and thus is gone before the merge.

TAKALI (Gen-X)

Sunday Burquest (45, Youth Pastor, Ostego, MN): Remember those religious people I was railing against earlier? Yeah, Sunday is definitely one of them, though not quite to the degree that I thought she’d be. I honestly thought she’d take Michelle’s spot on the annoyingly religious scale, but she’s overall very humble about the whole thing, increasing her chances. On top of that, she actually made a compelling argument in her introductory video that swayed me a bit, pointing out that both as a mother and a youth pastor, she’s good at handling children, a skill that will most likely come in handy for her. Plus, the tribe mother role is one that’s worked in the past, and I do think Sunday has the skills to pull it off. Will she, though? I think not. Unfortunately, the twist of this season has presumably fired up an independent spirit within the millennials, and as Freud would love, mother is amongst the first to go. Considerable though her skills are, Sunday and her religion might just be SLIGHTLY too divisive to overcome the other tribe, and so once she comes into contact with them, she’s a goner. Granted, she’s got a good fighting spirit, so I don’t think she’s gone IMMEDIATELY after the swap, but probably during the early merge.

Ciandre “CeCe” Taylor (39, Insurance Adjuster, Granada Hills, CA): You just COULDN’T give us two non-stereotypical black women on this season, could you show? No, CeCe fills our role of “sassy black woman” for the season, and even brings in Cydney Gillon’s supposed gimmick of having multiple personalities from last season. Not good signs overall, and it doesn’t help that she’s one of the more vocal anti-millennials of the season. True, that might just be the line of questioning in pre-game interviews, but the fact remains that if she pulls that attitude on members of the other tribe, she just won’t last that long. I don’t buy her claims that being an insurance agent in any way prepares you for the game, so I don’t expect her to last long. A pre-merge boot if ever there was one, though she’ll probably make the tribe swap ok.

Rachel Ako (37, Recruiting Director, Los Angeles, CA): When I first started looking at this cast, one of the things I liked from their bios alone, was the fact that they all seemed to have a fairly equal shot. True, some people were obviously better players than others, but no one really seemed to be cannon fodder. I was happy that way. And then Rachel presented herself in her video, and it became clear that yes, there IS cannon fodder on this season. Vapid supermodel? Check. No real accomplishments outside of that, despite claims to the contrary? Check. Hopelessly naive about the nature of the game? Check and double check! Rachel sealed the deal on her first-boot status by talking in her video about how surprised she was to see a fellow contestant who was a “jerk”, as “everyone else seemed like really good people.” Oh you sweet, naive thing. If your opposing attitude towards the rest of your tribe wasn’t enough, this just made it abundantly clear who will go first. You don’t go into “Survivor” thinking that people will be good people, and expect them to fall in line with you.

Lucy Huang (42, Dietician, Diamond Bar, CA): Lucy, much like Figgy on the other team, is a bit of a tough nut to crack. She’s got some things going for her, being stronger physically than you’d expect, and the constant drive to better herself is a plus, but she also seems to have something about her that seems haughty. I can’t put my finger on what it is, since she doesn’t do or say anything particularly egregious, but I get the feeling that she’ll have a hard time fitting in with other people, even on her own tribe. I don’t see her as TOO early a target because of this, but I don’t see her making it too far either. She could make the merge, she could not, but she’ll be gone somewhere in that time period.

Ken McNickle (33, Model, Denver, CO): Ken ALMOST got the first boot pick before I got to Rachel. The guy’s hardworking enough to fit in on his tribe, I suppose, but his lifestyle just seemed so diametrically opposed to his tribe’s attitude in general that I didn’t see him lasting too long. His claim to fame is living alone, pretty much self-sufficient in Hawaii for about 5 years, which is impressive, but seems too hippy-dippy for a tribe like this one. Add onto that the fact that he’s got an obvious bit of sleaze to him and he’s in trouble. This is a tribe that isn’t hurting too much in the athletic department, and add onto that his obvious conniving nature, combined with a probably attitude of “Age and treachery” from the power on his tribe, and I had him labeled a goner. And then, he got to talking about his little girl, in a very sweet, genuine way, and everything changed. Here at last is a link, an uncompromising, human link that the guy can use as an “in”, and protect himself early game. For all his talk, he’s got the smarts to do at least that, so expect him to be around for at least a little while. Since he is so transparent, I don’t see any alliance keeping him around long post-merge, but he could win immunities, so I’d say he’s actually gone more like early or mid merge. Odd, how one little confessional can change that.

Jessica Lewis (37, Assistant District Attorney, Voorheesville, NY): WOW! Now THIS is a woman I can get behind! Powerful, smart, and with a good wit to back her up. What’s not to like? Nothing, actually. It’s only because of the amazingness that is Michaela that Jessica isn’t my pick to win. Well, that and the fact that historically lawyers do not do well on the show, but Jessica may break the pattern yet. She clearly knows what she’s doing, has prepped herself, and despite having many of the conventional attitudes of her tribe, seems like enough of a chameleon to blend in come the tribe swap. I guess if I were to find fault in her, it’s that she’s clearly a woman who likes to be in power. Again, I’m very much all for that, especially on this show, but historically, such players tend to lose, which is unfortunate. Still, look for Jessica’s lawyer skills to take her deep, probably leaving sometime late-merge.

Bret LaBelle (42, Police Officer, Dedham, MA): Bret follows the “Rodney Lavoie Jr.” Model of character, seen on “Survivor Worlds Apart”. The man is loud, bombastic, funny, and very much set in his ways, which will be trouble come the tribe swap. With regards to his original tribe, he fits right in, but with the other tribe, he’s an obvious target, both not fitting in well and being threatening. I don’t see any flexibility from this guy, and that alone makes him a goner. He’ll probably be a lot of fun, but don’t expect him to last beyond the tribe swap, or make the merge.

David Wright (42, Television Writer, Sherman Oaks, CA): Were it not for the inclusion of Adam in the cast, David would be my personal favorite. He’s got a good wit, a good sense about himself, doesn’t take the twist of this season NEARLY as seriously as the rest of his team (he notes “eating breakfast” as being part of what defines Gen X, an obviously glib answer), and even shares a few of my pet peeves (people who don’t use their turn signals and people who believe in ghosts and psychics in particular coming to mind). The dude does not belong in the wild, a fact that he blatantly admits, but it endears me to him all the more. Apart from making for a very compelling character, it means that the drive to win the show must be SO STRONG that it outweighs all the negatives, a factor that can lead to a person making it to the end, or even winning. Sure enough, David is my male pick to win the whole thing. While he doesn’t fit in the BEST with his tribe he seems like the sort of guy who’ll fade into the background very well, maybe taking on a subtle leadership role as the man behind the man, but nothing more. While he is on the older side of things, even for this tribe, he personality seems youthful enough that I think he could blend well with the other tribe. Like Michaela, this gives him an edge I think few other people this season have, and that alone makes him the biggest male threat to win.

Paul Wachter (52, Boat Mechanic, Sugarloaf Key, FL): Out of all the pre-cast interviews, Paul got the most comments from the other players (many saying that he was a retired NFL player for some reason), and it’s easy to see why. The dude stands out, with long hair, tattoos, and a certain devil-may-care attitude almost. A distinctive person and this could be a bad thing, but alone amongst this season, Paul is a standout who might be ok. I don’t see his tribe losing very much early on, and while Paul might be an early target for standing out so much, he’s got a good enough head on his shoulders to not make waves I feel, and will let the tribe have their bigger fish to fry. Once he’s with the other tribe, they’ll pretty much automatically accept him for being an acceptably “out there” older person. Granted, both his bio and (to a lesser extent) his video had him being fairly critical of the other tribe, but from his general attitude, I get the feeling that this is more opinions being drawn out of him by the twist than genuine attitudes, and that he’d be smart enough to keep those to himself when he’s with the others. Now, I also don’t see him winning, since I don’t think he’s got the desire or the strategic skill to get there, but being an easygoing guy should get him to the early or mid merge, I’d say.

Chris Hammons (38, Trial Lawyer, Moore, OK): Continuing our trend of “Almosts” for this cast, Christ was ALMOST the male pick to win it all. A contradiction in terms, Chris is the slack-jawed yokel with a law degree. Gotta admit, that’s something you don’s see every day on “Survivor”, and should make for an interesting watch. Chris should do well, since his accent and general demeanor will probably make people underestimate him, and think he’s not as smart as he really is. I say SHOULD because while we get a lot of the “good old country boy” from him, I never really saw anything that made me think of his law degree. Perhaps they just hand them out in Oklahoma? I kid, I kid. I’m banking on Christ showing more smarts in the game than he did in his video and bio, so I’ll give him a mid-to-late merge exit. This lack of evidence would have made him a bit of a gamble, but he should at least be entertaining, and might even come to a dark horse victory.

And there you have what is actually a really good cast. Nice mix of strategists and characters (often in the same person), no really “wasted” slots, and definitely some people for the audience to latch onto. Too bad this twist makes a lot of them look like elitist assholes. Perhaps the show itself can even out the perspective, and make them likable again, but as it stands, I’m not as excited for the season as I usually am, mainly because of the twist.

Speaking of twists, I have one for you, my readers, and sadly it’s not a good one. Somehow, writing a free blog on the internet does not make me enough money to live on, so I recently acquired a full-time job. Normally this wouldn’t be a problem, but I work a shift that happens during the time “Survivor” airs, and so I will not be able to watch it the minute it comes out. This, in turn, means that “Idol Speculation” will lose some of it’s famed punctuality. It really hurts me to have to do this, but being able to pay rent and buy food is SLIGHTLY more important than watching “Survivor”, so, even though it loses the one thing this blog had going for it, I must wait to give you what you want. Still, I shall endeavor to avoid all spoilers, watch the show as soon as I can, and give you my honest reactions, hopefully free of outside influence.

I was wrong on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, let’s hope I’m wrong on this one! See you next month for, as I’m calling it, “Survivor MGX”!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.