“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Kaoh Rong

Once again, if CBS will not fill the void in our fandom when this goes up by officially announcing the cast of the new season, then it falls to me to fill the void with needless speculation about “What Might Have Been”.  And oh, what a treat we have today.  “Survivor Kaoh Rong” is a personal favorite season of mine, largely due to giving us Aubry Bracco, my all-time favorite player at the time of this writing.  I acknowledge that the season has some flaws, mainly in the editing department, and this keeps if out of the “Great” category of seasons, but I still love it.  Definite room for improvement, though, so let’s see if one tiny change is enough.  

Before discussing said change, though, the usual reminder that there are SPOILERS ahead.  It’s difficult to talk about changing a season without comparing it to how the season actually went down in reality, so I can’t guarantee that this and future seasons won’t be spoiled in this blog.  Past seasons may also be mentioned as well.  Hence, read at your own risk.  

THE IMPACT

Like with Africa, which we talked about earlier this off-season, Kaoh Rong is something of a Holy Grail for “What-If?” scenarios.  Between the medical evacuations and the number of lucky coincidences that happen, there’s just a trove to go through.  Most of these center around Aubry in particular, since while you may say what you want about her in hindsight, she is presented as the main character of this season, so of course most story beats will seem to center around her.  In particular, it’s common for the Michele fans/Aubry detractors to point out that she was saved by luck (had Neal not been medevaced, she almost certainly goes at the merge), while the Aubry fans/Michele detractors will counter that Aubry was also screwed by luck (if Joe doesn’t eat a ton of meat at the final five, Michele almost certainly goes then, leading to an inevitable Aubry victory).  The point I’m making here is twofold: Luck is a factor in “Survivor”, for good or for ill, and these scenarios have been gone over to death by the fanbase, are both equally true, and thus not interesting enough to talk about in this blog on their own.  

Now that I’ve hopefully dodged THAT bullet, and also hopefully avoided reigniting a dead debate that was very cruel and unnecessary, we can talk about the actual change we’re going to make.  Rather than change the outcome of luck, we’re going to change someone else’s mind.  That someone is, of course, Aubry, and that time is going to be at the Final 6.  In our timeline, Tai pushed for ejecting Michele here, something Aubry could have gone along with.  She had Joe’s vote on lock, and Jason, the intended target of Michele and Cydney, would doubtless have gone along with the plan if only to save his own skin.  In our timeline, of course, Aubry sides with Michele and Cydney, citing Cydney as someone she’s tight with, and Jason goes home here.  

That said, what if Aubry decided to take more of an interest in Tai’s plan?  What if Aubry became concerned about the tight twosome that Michele and Cydney form?  We know from post-show interviews that the two were tight from the swapped Chan Loh (and thank you, by the way, show, for COMPLETELY leaving out that particular storyline, only adding to the confusion your ending brought).  It’s not impossible that Aubry becomes concerned about this, and decides to go along with Tai’s plan.  The immediate outcome, of course, is that Michele goes while Jason stays, but what about how the rest of the season (all two remaining episodes of it at least) plays out?  

THE FALLOUT

Aubry choosing to keep Jason is, of course, a controversial move.  I suspect Aubry justifies it to the cameras by emphasizing the Cydney/Michele bond, and also stating that Jason is not good at puzzles, or looks that good to the jury.  Even so, I’m sure this is seen by the fanbase as a possible game-ruining move at the time, and Jason probably brags to confessional about how he just saved himself, even though it was really Tai and Aubry’s doing.  Apart from this, though, our penultimate episode doesn’t change much.  Joe probably still wins reward, and while he may take Tai rather than Cydney with him (and even that’s not guaranteed), this does not change him eating too much meat on reward, and getting evacuated as a result.  Really, all that we can guarantee changes is that Aubry looks an even bigger fool going into the finale, noting in confessional that not voting out Jason may have been her biggest mistake, now that he’s guaranteed a spot in the final four.  

Now, there is one possible change that could shape how things go, which is the aforementioned who Joe chooses to take on reward.  Nothing really changes if he takes Cydney, and she and Aubry patch things up on reward.  If Joe is still in the mindset of “No trust with Cydney” from the last vote, though, I could see him taking Tai.  If so, this raises the possibility that Cydney, burned from the last vote, makes amends with Jason.  In the Aubry/Michele debate in our timeline, Cydney often gets left by the wayside, despite being an excellent strategist and key player in the dominant alliance.  True, she wasn’t beating either of our two heroines, given how many bridges she burned, but still, she deserves respect.  I could see her trying to worm her way back in with Jason, especially if she believed that Aubry had fully turned against her, and not just wanted to break up her bond with Michele.  Whether it would work is another matter.  Jason strikes me as the type to hold a grudge, and I’m not sure he’d be open to anything Cydney had to say.  True, you could argue he has few options, but I could see him believing he could just immunity his way to the end from here.  

All this to say that while I acknowledge another possibility is available, I suspect Cydney tries to work her way back in with Aubry, having little choice otherwise.  Fortunately for her, Jason is still considered the bigger target, and is in for a round of bad luck.  I don’t see him winning the final four immunity, given how tricky that puzzle was, meaning Tai is the most likely winner.  Sadly, we do miss out on Michele’s kicking of the puzzle, so that’s one downgrade.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Jason, without immunity, goes at final four.  Given that he’s the villain of the season, even in this timeline, there is much rejoicing from the audience.  

Of course, this leads us to the challenge at the final three.  It’s certainly possible that, unless Cydney wins, Aubry goes to the end, so I could see the season following “Survivor Cagayan” even more closely, and going for a final two here.  On the other hand, I don’t think production wants to risk even that, so we probably still have our “Juror Removal” twist and a final three there.  Fittingly, this final three is one “Brain”, one “Brawn”, and one “Beauty”, a fun bit of symmetry.  

Given how close Aubry came in that challenge, coupled with it not playing to Sydney’s strengths, I’d say Aubry is probably the winner of the challenge.  It would be easy to say she just votes Scot off the jury, since that’s what she wanted in our timeline, but in this timeline, I think she goes for Julia.  Also a person guaranteed not to vote for her, but more so than Scot in this timeline.  Scot doesn’t like anybody on this final three.  He doesn’t want to vote for any of them.  Yet, since Aubry burned him the least directly out of those left, I could see her thinking she has a shot at his vote.  And if she doesn’t, well, Julia was never going to vote for her either, so it all evens out anyway.  

Perhaps controversial these days, but I’m inclined to say that Aubry wins in this final three regardless of who she gets rid of.  She has three votes guaranteed on this jury (Neal, Nick, and Joe), and while she definitely has two votes guaranteed against her (Michele and Debbie), I think she has a chance at at least Jason’s vote.  After all, if he and Cydney didn’t mend their relationship, then we know from our timeline that Jason was rooting against Cydney, and Tai directly betrayed him on the Scot boot.  Jason may not care for Aubry, but she’s the least objectionable out of the three.  Add onto that Michele’s excellent Final Tribal performance not being there, and Aubry’s average Final Tribal performance looks a lot better.  It may only be 4-3 (depending on who our final jury member is, and how persuadable they actually are), but Aubry comes out on top here.  

THE LEGACY

Before we get into how this impacts the view of the season as a whole, let’s talk about future seasons, since really, this changes little.  While Jason and Cydney are both bigger, more respected characters, there’s not really a good chance for them to come back.  “Survivor Game Changers” is the only full returnee season since then, and I don’t see them nixing any of the Kaoh Rong players we got in our timeline.  And I don’t see them having more than four from a single season, so that is shot.  Aubry’s win doesn’t preclude her coming back, either, since winners were ok that season.  

That said, her win DOES torpedo her chances, and I’d say Aubry is maybe even first out of this season in this timeline.  One of the reasons I will defend Aubry’s game on Game Changers is that, while she never had any real power, the fact that she even MADE IT that far is impressive.  Game Changers, like “Survivor All-Stars” before it, had an anti-winner bias.  Less because “They already got money”, and more because “They’re the biggest threats.”  This justification led to Aubry being lumped in this group in our timeline, with no less than the Queen herself, Sandra Diaz-Twine, wanting her gone.  After all, the prevailing wisdom at the time was “Aubry should have won.”  Partly by good swap luck, and partly by her own guile, Aubry making it as far as she did, power or no, was nothing short of a miracle, and her game that season deserves respect.  But with an actual win under her belt?  Aubry has no chance of making it far this season.  

Of course, this does preclude her from coming back for Edge of Extinction, so she’ll need a replacement.  This would seem the place to include Cydney, but it’s only in the last year or two that Cydney has said she’s willing to return.  She’s doubtless asked, but I think she declines, for the understandable reason of her body deteriorating from the show not being good for her bodybuilding career.  My next thought for who to put in Aubry’s spot was someone cast after her to match her archetype.  Hannah Shapiro of “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” and Gabby Pascuzzi of “Survivor David vs. Goliath” would probably be the top candidates in that regard.  However, I ended up deciding that neither would go, as the former has stated she won’t play again, while the latter, having just come from the same filming cycle, would be unfamiliar to the fans that season.  She would basically get the same reaction from the players as Amanda on “Survivor Micronesia”, and I don’t think production wants that again.  

No, I think Aubry’s open spot here gives Chrissy Hoffbeck (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) her second shot.  While not the “nerd” archetype that Aubry has, Chrissy still gets the “offbeat choice” niche, while still being a favorite who is known to the fans.  Does this change the season drastically?  Eh, probably not.  While Chrissy might make it farther than Aubry does in our timeline, if only by virtue of actually playing an idol if she finds it, the anti-returnee sentiment on this season was too strong, and we still probably get our unsatisfying Chris win here.  The one upside is that there is no “Drive Aubry away from the fanbase by personally attacking her for a bad game decision”, meaning we have a more active online Aubry in this timeline, for which I, for one, am eternally grateful.  Seriously, fanbase, shame on you for how you acted toward her.  Agree or disagree with her, what you did is not ok.  

While Aubry’s win precludes her from appearing on Edge of Extinction, it puts her in the running for Winners at War.  Given that she’s a relatively recent, popular winner at this point, I don’t see her not coming back.  We don’t even have to speculate about who she replaces, since she just takes the spot Michele had in our timeline.  Does Aubry mimic Michele’s placement this season?  Probably not.  While I am an Aubry fan, I will admit that Michele’s game, while not as fun to watch, is overall smarter in terms of making a deep run.  Both play fantastic games that can be winning ones, but run their seasons a hundred times randomized, and Michele’s strategy wins out more often than Aubry’s.  Aubry probably goes either after the swap, depending on if she gets a bad draw, or early-ish in the merge if not.  Probably around where Adam goes in our timeline is her ceiling, just due to her threat level.  

But what of Kaoh Rong as a whole?  Well, for what I believe is the first time in the history of these blogs, we actually have a timeline change that RETROACTIVELY changes a season, or at least how it’s presented.  Specifically, Aubry’s decision at final six will FORCE the edit to highlight the Cydney/Michele bond a lot more to justify Aubry’s action, which is criticized at the time but in hindsight is seen as a brilliant move.  This paints the pair in a different light.  For want of a better term, a villainous light.  Don’t misunderstand, the pair aren’t the villains of the season; Scot and Jason claimed that title pretty definitively when they started sabotaging the camp.  But the pair are presented in a similar way to Ami on “Survivor Vanuatu”.  Not bad as people, but shrewd players who are an obstacle to our underdog hero.  Thereby de-facto antagonists, if not necessarily villainous.  This is why Cydney gets elevated to a higher status in the fandom, though conversely, Michele kind of becomes a footnote.  

Of course an Aubry win makes Kaoh Rong work much better as a season, and elevates it to at least near-greatness.  I hesitate to give it full greatness, partly taking into account my pro-Aubry bias, and partly because I could see her win being seen as “predictable”, which is often a mark against a season.  The main problem with the season in our timeline is that everything in the narrative tells us that Aubry SHOULD win against anyone.  I know edgic set up Michele as the winner fairly early, but as someone who was firmly watching at the time, I can tell you the assumption was that Michele won because Aubry got eliminated before the finals.  Thus, it still felt wrong when Aubry made finals but lost anyway.  There’s a conflict between what we think SHOULD happen narratively, and what ACTUALLY happens.  An Aubry win avoids that conflict, and at least for me, makes a much better season as a whole.  

Ok, so maybe this was an excuse to give my favorite player a win.  I admit to more bias in this blog than perhaps any other.  Still, I hope the scenario has been at least semi-plausible and fun for everyone, though!  Let me know what scenarios you’d like covered in the future!  I’ll happily give credit to anyone who gives me an idea I use.  Just post it in the comments section of this blog, or wherever you happened to find this blog.  Guidelines for submissions are listed below.  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Island of the Idols.

As always, our suggestions and feedback are much appreciated.  Take care out there, everyone!

-Matt

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 42” Finale: Infinite Diversity in Infinite Combinations

Normally the top of the blog is where I joke around a bit before getting into the nitty gritty of the recap/analysis, but I’d like to be sincere for a moment: Were he alive today, I truly believe Gene Roddenberry would love “Survivor”, and particularly this season.  Say what you will about some of the new changes to the show, but one thing that has been consistently good is taking people from different walks of life, and showing them not just getting along and working together, but learning from each other and moving forward with new respect.  Given the man’s vision of the future, I can’t help but feel that he would enjoy it.  

Then again, there’s not much sex on “Survivor”.  Might be a deal-breaker for him.  

We start off our episode proper with Probst talking to the audience, and for once, I’m not really mad about it.  Probably because this is just an in-person replacement for the Probst narration of the now-extinct season recap, and honestly this is less cringe-worthy, since Probst doesn’t have to justify why some of the finalists that we the audience know can’t win could win.  Really, my only gripe about this proceeding is that they keep playing snippets of “Ancient Voices”, the theme song, over various clips, something they’ve been doing sporadically all season.  Much as I love the song, it just makes me long for its return.  GIVE US BACK OUR AWESOME INTRO, DAMMIT!

Our players proper start out happy that they have ousted the biggest jury threat left in the game, but also a little bummed at their new digs.  It’s a bit hard to blame them, given that they now have to start over from scratch, but they do, I think, oversell how hard it is a bit.  Yeah, it’s not a fun or pleasant experience, but for how little time you have left, not the end of the world.  

But, of course, fallout from Tribal Council must occur with a non-unanimous vote.  Now, people over these past couple seasons have been good about handling being on the wrong side of a vote at least semi-competently.  This season in particular I would say has had people playing this off well.  Yet it seems, every so often, someone must completely lose it.  Lindsay does not really acquit herself well here.  While she’s happy to have survived, she asks why exactly they couldn’t let her in on the Omar vote.  She’s particularly upset at Jonathan, since they were supposed to be “allied”.  Jonathan brings up the perfectly valid point that Lindsay drew first blood, and was working against him.  Lindsay accuses him of talking down to her, in confessional, and while that’s been true in the past, Jonathan’s actually pretty reasonable here.  Stonewalling, yes, but being pretty chill about the whole thing in general.  Saying that Lindsay was “aggressive” is maybe a step too far (seriously, is every woman who raises their voice at all to Jonathan “aggressive” in his mind), but at least somewhat more justified than with Drea, given that Lindsay was clearly frustrated.  

With the morning comes our misdirection.  Lindsay seems to be dead in the water, with Jonathan and Mike taking time out of their day to talk about how she needs to be the next to go.  How do we give Lindsay a chance?  Immunity aside, we have two plays that could be questionable at best.  Starting with the more unambiguously bad one, Mike, in an attempt to curry favor, suggests he might give Lindsay his idol, if he wins immunity.  Decent coddling, and certainly more believable than saying he’d give it to her no strings attached, but the flaws here are twofold.  One, after voting out Lindsay’s closest ally, it’s a tough sell even with Mike’s acting skills.  Two, Mike also promised Maryanne his idol LAST episode, so congratulations, you’ve lied to someone!  At least one of those people is likely to be on the jury, poisoning it against you!  Hope you like having to fight that battle at the end, Mike!  

Our other bit of strategy comes courtesy of Maryanne, who says that she doesn’t want Lindsay to go, since Lindsay is part of her endgame plan.  At first, my gut reaction was to dismiss this as Maryanne being cocky over her Omar boot last night.  Thinking she’s unbeatable now.  Maryanne is the favorite after Lindsay, but Lindsay still most likely beats her in the end.  Why, after all, would you want that person around?  But the more I thought about it, the more there is an argument for Maryanne wanting to keep Lindsay close.  

Consider that Mike and Jonathan are incredibly tight at this point.  Probably the tightest pair left in the game.  Also, if Lindsay’s out, the most likely to win challenges, assuming they don’t involve a complex puzzle or endurance (as final immunity challenges sadly rarely do these days).  Thus, with Lindsay gone, unless Maryanne herself wins final immunity, or Romeo, she’s likely going into fire making, something she may not be good at.  Conversely, as she’s the only person left Lindsay’s tight with, if Lindsay is in at four and wins immunity, she probably takes Maryanne to the end.  On the whole, I’d still say better to want Lindsay out, since again, she’s the only person left ahead of Maryanne in the “winner potential” at this point, but there is an argument to be made for Maryanne’s thought here.  

Still, immunity is probably the best chance that Lindsay has of making it past this vote.  Lucky for her, the challenge advantage found after the word scramble is back once again, and Lindsay is evidently good at word scrambles.  She gets it decently quickly and then runs around trying to find the thing.  No one else even finishes the scramble, though this is partly due to Maryanne sandbagging Jonathan and Mike’s attempts.  The clue ultimately says the advantage is in the sleeping giant’s toes, which, putting two and two together, Lindsay concludes is in the roots of a fallen tree.  Pretty standard deductive reasoning for “Survivor”.  But, PLOT TWIST, the advantage is NOT in a tree this time!  What spore of madness is this?!

Admittedly, said challenge advantage is CLOSE to a tree, but is hidden in a foot-shaped rock formation with a tree leaning against it.  As it seemed to be on the rocks rather than a tree, I’m going to say it was not related to a significant looking tree at this point.  

Oh, and Romeo tells us he made a fake idol.  Not that he really needs it, since everyone wants him in the end anyway, but it’s a decent effort.  His second-grade teacher must be proud.  

The challenge that Lindsay specifically got the advantage for is your standard “Ropes course to collect puzzle pieces”, with the puzzle this time giving us one last look at the ouroboros motif of the season.  Standard enough challenge for this point of the game, and it’s been a while since we’ve seen this challenge in particular, so I won’t fault it for being a repeat.  I WILL, however, fault it for being a LAME version of this challenge.  Usually, with a challenge like this, one goes to and from the bags of puzzle pieces via the ropes course.  This can lead to collisions and tie-ups, which help make for a fun, tense physical challenge.  Here, you only use the ropes going back, and run around the perimeter of the course to get to the puzzle pieces. Much less exciting!  Boo!

Fortunately, our players make up for this lack of excitement by bringing their own.  Like last season, Lindsay’s advantage is substantial, only having to untie one knot per bag instead of six.  Jonathan has a lead in spite of this, but this challenge involves a puzzle.  We already know he’s not winning.  Lindsay, however, falls off the plank bridge halfway through, and this costs her time that could have had her win.  See, with a challenge like this, it usually comes down to the puzzle, and this is no exception.  Even Romeo and Maryanne, easily the two slowest players left, make it to the puzzle.  Granted, Romeo does terribly at that to but he is, technically, “in it”.  Our top two are Mike and Lindsay, who are always one or two pieces apart from each other.  Fortunately for our entertainment, Mike wins, thus making things more exciting post-challenge, and proving that, on occasion, the physical part of a challenge ending in a puzzle CAN make a difference.  

Mike also gets to take someone to a pasta a cake reward.  He unsurprisingly chooses Jonathan, which given how close the two are, I can’t blame him for.  Best to keep your ally close and strong at this point, so that they don’t turn on you at Final Four Firemaking.  No, Mike’s dumb move is an entirely DIFFERENT one!  See, Jonathan realizes that he’s the logical target for Lindsay to pitch, and so, with Mike now immune, asks Mike for the idol, which Mike agrees to do.  Now, don’t misunderstand.  If Mike is to use his immunity on someone else, Jonathan is the PERFECT person to do so.  Someone loyal to him, so keeps him safe down the road, and cuts out from under Jonathan the narrative that he got there on his own.  No, the flaw in this is that YOU ALREADY PROMISSED LINDSAY AND MARYANNE YOUR IDOL!  If you weren’t keeping count, that’s now everyone EXCEPT Romeo he’s made that promise to.  Odds are, at least one of them will be on the jury, and VERY pissed at you as a result.  

Lindsay recognizes that she’s likely doomed, but gives it her level best, guilt-tripping Mike about his promise from earlier.  Mike seems genuinely hurt by it, but waffles on actually giving it to her.  A worthy effort by Lindsay, though she laid it on a little thick.  On the whole, honestly, I don’t buy it.  If Bob didn’t give up immunity to Kenny on “Survivor Gabon”, then Mike, someone strategically leagues ahead of Bob, is not going to give up his idol here, immunity or no.  

Far better for misdirection is Maryanne, who is a much better actor than Lindsay, and has more pull with Mike, more subtly guilt-tripping him into playing his idol for her.  This, then, would free up her idol to be played on Lindsay.  This scenario seems more plausible, but I still don’t buy it, especially when Maryanne considers whether or not she should save Lindsay.  It’s basically the same debate I laid out a few paragraphs ago, so I won’t re-tread it here, but it’s a reasonable debate.  Still, not buying that anyone but Lindsay is going overall.  This is a more plausible move for Mike, but overall he’s usually made the best move for his game (moral pontificating aside), and right now, his best move is to make Jonathan immune.  

Sadly, all the misdirection goes out the window when we get to Tribal Council.  Lindsay is going, and even she seems to know it, seeming kind of downtrodden throughout the proceedings.  When Romeo dubs Tribal Council “The Fire”, and talking about someone who has fought hard every single time, yeah, we know she’s going.  I’m mixed on the outcome, to be honest.  I think she played the most consistently good game of all those left, and on that level I’m sorry she didn’t get the chance to prove it in front of the jury.  That said, if Lindsay WAS our winner, I’d be a bit upset about her edit, since we saw little of her compared to everyone else left.  Not invisible by any means, but on the heals of Erika’s win on “Survivor 41”, having two under-edited female winners in a row would be a big problem.  

Now the one with the biggest problem is Maryanne.  She’s set herself up well to win in pretty much any final three combination, but now it’s a matter of getting there.  She’d better hope that Mike or Jonathan are feeling particularly strategically poor today…

Or our final immunity challenge could be “Simmotion”, the challenge with no clearly defined skill set where pretty much anyone can win, that works too.  Look, I have no problem with “Simmotion” as a challenge in and of itself.  Wide open in terms of winner possibilities, and decently fun to watch.  But it doesn’t have the grandeur, the FINALITY that a final immunity challenge should bring, in my opinion.  Much as I complain about endurance challenges due to how ubiquitous they’ve become post-merge, this is the one place that should ALWAYS be a straight endurance challenge.  Give me “Hand on a Hard Idol” any day.  This, for me, falls into the same category as the “Build a House of Cards” challenge.  Fine enough as a challenge, but should not be the last one of the season.  

For all my complaints, this one actually has a few good moments.  Probst takes the time to let everyone left talk about what this challenge means to them, as well as to make it this far in the game.  Everyone gives good answers, and tugs at the old heartstrings.  Second, and this may be a cruel bit of schadenfreude, but I love Mike going out when there was only one ball.  Pretty sure that’s a “Survivor First” and surprised Probst didn’t take the time to call it out as such.  Finally, and perhaps most surprisingly, Romeo wins!  Told you this challenge had no obvious skill set.  Still, good for him, and a very solid performance.  Also means we get an epic “shocked” face from Hai.  Guess Maryanne doesn’t have to worry about being sent to fire.  

Or perhaps she does!  Mike talks with Romeo first, and does not try to fight that he’s being sent to fire.  Instead, he pitches that Maryanne is the biggest jury threat, and so should send her to fire making, rather than giving Jonathan one last victory.  A decent pitch overall, and Maryanne does practice her fire making skills.  We the audience, of course, know that Romeo is a dead man walking, and is pretty much just a kingmaker in this scenario.  He’s a less crazy Noura from “Island of the Idols”.  That said, even from Romeo’s perspective, I would still pit Jonathan against Mike.  Apart from Mike having the angle of an easier fight in the end, at least by taking Maryanne, Romeo takes away some of her power, and shows that he was not just dragged along by the bros, but had some say in their fate.  

All practice fire, and we see that Jonathan is pretty good, while Mike and Maryanne struggle.  I’m sure this is not setting up any ironic twist at all!

Tribal Council is played pretty close to the chest, yet it’s still obvious what’s going to happen.  With no outstanding moments to discuss, we cut right to Romeo announcing, smartly, that he’s taking Maryanne to the end.  This has all but guaranteed Maryanne victory, but we’ll play out the rest of the episode anyway.  Jonathan and Mike have a very close duel, with both building respectable fires.  Maybe not as close as the one last season, but still a decent watch.  Still, call me a masochist, but I prefer the ones where players epically fail.  Give me the train wreck that was the Becky/Sundra duel from “Survivor Cook Islands” any day.  

In one of those moments that will doubtless make people think “Survivor” is scripted, the underdog wins.  Mike edges out Jonathan, who gets to say farewell to “Mr. Jeff”.  As you can guess, not sorry at this outcome.  Jonathan was not the WORST of the “dude bro” archetype I’ve ever seen on the show, but it’s just not one I’m fond of, and his words at the split Tribal Council this season just really soured me on him as a winner.  It’s ok that he came, but I’m glad he didn’t win.  Also, had he made Final Tribal and lost, we would have had an even less-justified “Xander Situation” from last season on our hands, and I just couldn’t take that right now.  

Also, fun fact, this marks the first time each starting tribe has been represented in a “Final Three” (with three starting tribes), since “Survivor Worlds Apart”. Not unique, but fun to see nonetheless.

We get our usual “Here’s why each finalist can win” narrative over our breakfast, but in a different and clever way.  We here a BIT from the finalists themselves, but in a clever move, particularly given the lack of “Ponderosa” videos this season, we hear the jurors themselves talk about each finalist, both their strengths and what we need to see.  It’s a fascinating insight into the jury, and I would welcome more dives like this in future seasons.  Even if some of the justifications are a bit weak.  Both Mike and Maryanne get a “here’s what we want to see from them” bit (owning up to playing duplicitously while pretending to be honorable and owning/fighting for their game, respectively), but Romeo gets a somewhat lackluster “He’s not completely out of it.” justification from a couple of people.  Don’t get me wrong, they do their best, but clearly the jury doesn’t have a lot to work with here.  

Also, not buying the “Anyone can win” montage at the end.  Yes, I know pretty much all the jury says they were open-minded at the reunion show, and this jury may have had more wiggle room than some other seasons, but no jury is THAT open minded.  I don’t buy at least half these people not having their votes locked in.  

For all that Romeo is drawing dead at this point, I will credit him, he does a pretty good job at Final Tribal Council.  He owns the moves he did make, talks about his growth, owns up to his mistakes but talks about how they relate to his game journey.  He even gets in a bit of pandering to Hai, reminding him of their in-game bond.  Really, the only misstep I can think of for Romeo is that when he gets called “Paranoid” by Tori he stumbles over his explanation of why he wasn’t, and even that’s a minor thing.  He did his level best, but his fate was already sealed at this point.  

Contrast with Mike.  You remember how the jury wanted him to own up to betraying people despite talking about wanting to play with “honor”?  Yeah, that wasn’t put in there for no reason.  Mike all but directly gets asked about that several times, with the jury making it abundantly clear they want him to own his betrayals.  Despite this, Mike does not take the hint multiple times, and insists the only time he broke his word was with Rocksroy.  You hear that, Mike?  That’s the sound of your million, fluttering out the window.  

Maryanne, while not overall the most performance-heavy Final Tribal, does her job well.  She fields her questions in an articulate manner, gives the jury what they want to hear.  It’s not going to rock the history books, but it does what it needs to.  She even points out that her moves gave her more options to be taken to the end rather than make fire (with Mike using his idol for her at final five, and all left wanting to take her to the end at four), thereby destroying my theory regarding why she would want Lindsay around. The stand out moment, that clinches her win, is of course her reveal of the merge idol she found, the “One secret that was kept all season”.  The jury clearly eats it up, and if you doubted Maryanne’s winner potential, doubt no more.  

Yes, we have two female Canadian winners of color in a row!  Huzzah!  Happy for them, but feeling uneasy about Canadians in particular being targeted in future seasons.  Still, good for Maryanne.  Very happy to see her win, and definitely a fun character to have as a winner.

Our reunion show is, as per the norm, nothing to write home about.  I’m still mixed on whether I prefer the old format or this new one.  I do enjoy the intimacy of the new format, and the lack of audience gimmicks/old players being called back for an interview.  That said, the lack of pre-jury, while understandable given the winner reveal, bothers me, and I do think it’s good to give people a chance to reflect on their games before interviewing them about said games.  This particular reunion did few favors in terms of turning me on to the new format.  Probst seemed to be schilling for the new twists half the time, which I suppose is his job, but still, not what I come to the reunion for.  There were a few funny highlights, though.  Rocksroy owning that he was clueless about the idol activation phrases.  Mike being delivered multiple pizzas in a row.  Probst actually talking back to Jonathan when he tries to give Omar a suggestion when asked to name an animal Mike is like.  All comedy gold.  

Before we wrap up my overall thoughts on the season, it’s time for the traditional look back at my pre-season cast assessment, and see how badly I failed in my predictions.  

Jonathan-His personality I had pretty much pegged (no surprise there, he’s not exactly subtle about it), but he did last longer than I would have thought.  

Marya-Slightly overestimated her time in the game, but overall pretty much right.  

Romeo-Wrong.  For all my snark, particularly this episode, he played a pretty good game, and made it deservedly deep as a result.  

Tori-Wrong.  Lasted longer than I thought, and less irritating on the show than I would have thought.  Still don’t care for her in real life, though.  

Jackson-Wrong, though in fairness, I had no way to predict he’d hide medical information from production.  

Chanelle-Her time was slightly shorter than I thought, but out in the merge area and not that memorable.  Overall, I’d say I was right with her.  

Omar-Slight overestimation, since I said he’d be out at five or four, but within the margin of error, so I think I can give myself the win on this one.  

Swati-I was right in regards to about how much time she would have in the game, but I gave her too much credit on game-savviness.  

Hai-Pretty much right, though the guy was more ruthless than I gave him credit for, and thus his reason for leaving was different.  

Lindsay-Wrong.  More game-savvy, and longer-lasting than I anticipated, and I am here for it!

Mike-Wrong.  He’s not setting the world on fire with his gameplay, but there’s more of it there than I gave him credit for, and he lasted much longer than I thought he would as a result.  

Lydia-Pretty much right.  Her humor shows more in her twitter than on the show, though.  

Rocksroy-Wrong.  Sometimes being hard to find just means you’re anti-social.  Not good in a winner pick.  

Jenny Kim-Mixed on this one.  She went out pretty much exactly where I thought she would, and she DID have shades of the bossiness I thought would do her in.  But she hid them well, and would have done much better if not for fluke twists.  Kind of right, kind of wrong, in pretty much all ways.  

Daniel-Wrong.  Worse player than I thought, and out earlier as a result.  

Zach-Wrong.  Much less smart than I though, and consequently out much earlier.  

Drea-Pretty much right, though again, I think I underestimated her smarts.  

Maryanne-TWO FOR TWO ON THE WINNER PICKS IN THE NEW ERA, BABY!  LET’S GO!

In case I haven’t already made it clear, I LOVE this season to death.  This is, unquestionably for me, a top-tier season, the first to get that honor since “Survivor David vs Goliath”, and probably the one I’ve been most excited to put there since “Survivor Cambodia” (I have a lot of respect for “David vs Goliath” as a season, but between enjoying “Ghost Island” more than most and thinking the theming is incredibly dumb, I’m not as jazzed about it as most are.  I acknowledge it’s overall technical perfection as a season, but it just does not have the “umph” to bring it to true love that I have for seasons above it).  Really, the cast is what make this work.  We really connect with this cast, who are by and large fun characters and decent strategists.  Yes, we may not have gotten truly innovative gameplay this season, but not every season needs that.  Standard gameplay, done well, can serve as well, and we get that in spades this season.  Every week told a fun, coherent story with characters we loved to watch, and really, what more could you ask for from a season?  

That said, this season is not without a couple of flaws.  The positives outweigh them, but they are there.  Predominantly, like “Survivor 41”, this season just had too many twists, too much stuff to keep track of.  Being a carbon copy of the format between seasons was KIND OF a cool experiment, but it meant the worst excesses of the previous season were not corrected.  Secondarily, and admittedly very nit-picky, I would say the tail end of the season (last 2-3 episodes) did not have good misdirection.  You could pretty much tell the order of the last few boots at the start of their episodes.  Granted, the show made up for this by giving us great “downfall” narratives each time, but as someone who goes out of his way to praise the misdirection, it is, technically, a flaw.  

While not affecting my ranking in and of itself, I also want to note that “Survivor 41” was kind of hard-done-by, in comparison to this season.  Most of the positives for this season could be said of “Survivor 41”, and that season definitely had more innovations in strategy than this season.  The problem is that, with “Survivor 41” having to introduce SO MANY new twists and advantages that time needed to be spend explaining them, it took away from time that could be spend bonding with the cast.  As such, while I think both are great, I connect more with this current cast, just because half of each episode didn’t need to be eaten up with rules explanations.  That said, that’s purely a factor of order.  Flip them around, with “Survivor 42” introducing all the new stuff first somehow, and I probably have the exact opposite feelings about these seasons.  Again, not a factor in my ranking overall, but wanted to acknowledge that “Survivor 41” got a raw deal due to factors outside its control.  

We did get a short preview for “Survivor 43”… Despite the fact that it’s still filming.  Eh, whatever.  It was so devoid of overall content that I can’t comment too much on it, but I do have a couple of random thoughts.  The cast seems decent.  I already like the attitude of the tattooed woman in blue.  The buffs are nice and colorful.  And the logo is an excellent design, save for the stupid giant number at the top.  I guess I have to accept that it’s going to be a “thing” moving forward, but I still think it looks dumb.  Make it smaller, and either integrate it better into the logo, or put it BENEATH the name where it belongs!

Anyway, I am tired, but don’t think this is the last of the blogs for now!  There will be a brief hiatus, but we will return to our off-season content.  Still deciding what I feel like working on, but at the very least, look out for the return of “‘Survivor’ What-Ifs?”

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Marquesas

So yeah, it’s been a while….

To those of you still here, or coming back to read this, thank you.  My promises of a productive off-season have clearly been shot at this point.  In my defense, I’ve had a rough few months at work, and that plus the lack of new “Survivor” news killed a lot of my incentive to use my free time to talk about all things “Survivor” (as a side note, perhaps it’s the restart of season production that has incentivized me to get back on the horse).  But from an outsider’s perspective, I get that doesn’t matter.  I said there would be more off-season content than there has been, and even left a six-month gap or so with no new content.  For that, I’m sorry, and thanks for sticking with me/coming back.  I hope to do better moving forward.  Maybe not weekly content, but hopefully at least one new blog a month up until we start getting solid information/content about the newest seasons.  

Given the gap between blogs, I think a quick refresher of what this one entails is in order.  This is “Survivor What-Ifs?”, a speculative blog where I go back and change one small moment in “Survivor” history.  I then discuss the impact this change would have on the course of all seasons that came after it, dividing my analysis up into three sections: The Impact, where I discuss what specifically I’m changing in the timeline and any changes that happen within the same episode as a result; The Fallout, where I discuss how that change impacts the rest of the season the change occurs in; and The Legacy, where I discuss how this change impacts the seasons that came after.  How much detail each section gets varies depending on where in the timeline said change takes place.  For example, the change we’ll be discussing today takes place near the end of the season, so The Impact and The Fallout will be shorter but have more specifics in them.  Conversely, The Legacy will be longer, but be more of a generalization than the other two sections.  

All this leads into the usual reminder that there will be SPOILERS ahead.  It’s rather difficult to talk about how a timeline differs from our own without referencing our own timeline.  I’ll mainly be discussing the outcome of “Survivor Marquesas” in this blog, but other seasons may be mentioned in The Legacy, so if you want to be safe, maybe don’t read ahead until you’ve seen all seasons from Marquesas on.  With all that business out of the way, let’s go ahead and dive into the change with…

THE IMPACT

Marquesas is an interesting place to shake up the timeline in, as it’s a season with a lot of mixed opinions.  Some find that it’s an underrated gem of a season; others find it decent, but nothing to write home about.  For myself, I kind of fall somewhere in the middle.  From a strategic standpoint, it’s a VERY important season, delivering us the first full alliance-flip, as well as Vecepia’s innovative strategy for the “Fallen Comrades” challenge that got it discontinued from the show.  I fully acknowledge and respect this.  That said, for my money, while important things HAPPEN, on the season, the PEOPLE they happen to by and large aren’t that interesting to watch from a viewership perspective.  Oh, the season has some great characters to be sure.  Kathy Vavrick-O’Brien is a treat, and both Sean Rector and John Carroll are underrated gems who deserve another shot in the game.  But most of the big characters go out pre-merge, in part, I think, due to the losing Maraamu tribe being stacked in terms of characters.  They were definitely the more fun tribe to watch, but their early losses meant most of the big characters went out early, thus leaving us with an inoffensive, but overall not that dynamic, merge cast.  Put another way, I feel like our timeline of Marquesas is what “Survivor Exile Island” would have been like if the La Mina/Casaya wins and losses had been flipped.  There would have been nothing WRONG with La Mina dominating the merge and post game, and interesting strategy would doubtless still occur, but we would have lost most of the fun people to watch along the way.  

Well, now that I’ve talked up how the pre-merge of Marquesas kind of torpedoes a lot of the good of the season, let’s make a change as far away from the pre-merge as possible!  When I say we’re making a change near the end of the season, I mean the VERY end of the season.  We’re going back to most of the way through the finale, at the Final 3 Immunity Challenge.  Those of you who have seen the season will recall the dominance that was and is Kathy.  She was the audience favorite, and also the favorite to win the challenge, having won several immunities and rewards by this point.  Not that Vecepia and Neleh weren’t good competitors, but Kathy was just in another league.  However, as Kathy herself put it, she lost her focus for a second, slipped, and fell out of the challenge.  At that point, Vecepia made the obvious play and made a deal with Neleh to step down, since neither one of them wanted to take Kathy to the end at that point.  Why waste the time, after all?  A perfectly logical and rational decision, but one that eliminates the last exciting person left from a television viewer perspective.  

So, for our change, let’s let Kathy keep her focus.  Let’s let her keep her head in the game, and not make the slip-up which cost her immunity and the game as a whole.  What happens in the timeline where Kathy stays 100% focussed on the challenge at hand 100% of the time?

THE FALLOUT

Kathy wins.  Yeah, shocker, I know.  Real hot take from the guy who’s been gone for six months.  It take you that long to think through that complex scenario, genius?  

But seriously, whether you’re talking about the challenge or the game, Kathy keeping her focus in that final immunity challenge wins her everything.  She was the favorite to win the challenge for a reason, and I’m not one to go against the odds.  Who she takes to the end almost doesn’t matter, since I’m pretty sure she wins either way.  That said, it’s still my duty to make a guess.  I couldn’t find any evidence that Kathy has ever said who she would have taken had she won, but my guess would be that she takes Neleh.  The pair were always on the same tribe from the beginning, Kathy played a big part in Neleh and Paschal flipping on the Rotu 4, and Kathy would have voted out Vecepia at Final 4 had she not won immunity.  True, Kathy did have a deal with Vecepia as a result of that Final 4 challenge, but I don’t see that overriding a 38 day bond with Neleh.  

As I say, the discussion is ultimately kind of pointless, since Kathy wins either way, but I’ll be going forward as though it’s her versus Neleh.  Kathy definitely wins the votes of all the Rotu 4 in this scenario (while Zoe did vote for Neleh in our timeline, I feel like she ultimately got along with Kathy best of all the remaining finalists), and possibly gets more.  Paschal is the only one she definitively loses, as there’s no way Paschal doesn’t vote for Neleh.  Sean and Vecepia are the only ones I have difficulty figuring out.  They’re both probably not happy at Kathy voting them out, but also have no respect for Neleh.  I’m inclined to say they vote for Kathy, since Neleh seemed to annoy them on a more personal level, but they could go either way.  All it changes is Kathy’s margin of victory though, not the victory itself.  

THE LEGACY

In a bit of a reversal, I’m going to talk a bit about the trends this change to the timeline causes to later seasons first, rather than how it changes the makeup of returnee seasons down the line.  Specifically, I’d like to talk about what the absence of Vecepia’s win means to the timeline going forward.  Say what you will about her as a character, but Vecepia was both a good strategist and important for “Survivor” as a whole.  Around this time, you started to get people noticing that POC’s in general, and African-Americans in particular, were not making the final rounds of the show.  They weren’t even making it that close.  Vecepia making the finals here is a big deal, but now that she doesn’t win, the controversy remains.  Recall that during the “Early Show” segments for this seasons, one of the hosts would regularly joke about the need for “Black ‘Survivor’” for African-Americans to have any chance of winning.  Vecepia’s win shut up that sort of talk, but without it, now that talk persists.  This both means that discussions about the success and portrayal of POC’s on the show probably comes up much earlier in the show’s history, possibly even leading to a Cook Islands “Divide the tribes by race” twist earlier in the timeline.  It also means that Earl’s win on “Survivor Fiji” becomes a much bigger deal, as he becomes the first African-American to ever win in the show’s history.  This means that, with Kathy winning Marquesas, Earl definitely gets brought back sooner rather than later.  I suspect he probably comes back for “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” as a Hero, probably taking Tom Westman’s spot.  He sadly still has to miss “Winners at War”, as I doubt his real-life obligations change as a result of this, but he probably gets brought back one more time after Heroes vs. Villains at least.  

Of course, Kathy is a big deal even in our timeline.  She was voted “Most Popular Contestant Ever” around the end of the season in our timeline, which is probably somewhat due to recency bias, but also because Kathy is just a good character.  But if you thought her zeitgeist was big in our timeline, hoo boy, you can imagine how big it is if she wins.  Kathy is beloved, arguably the most beloved winner ever.  She’s probably the only person who rivals Ethan Zohn in terms of popular winners during the single-digit seasons.  There’s probably a lot of ongoing debate, even to this day, of which of them played the better game.  Think “Team Ethan” and “Team Kathy” t-shirts going around.

Kathy herself is also a hot ticket item who comes back more than once.  There’s her appearance on “All-Stars” to be sure, but I’m sure they want her back for other seasons as well.  It’s tempting to say that she’d also be brought back to “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, but I’m not sure about that.  She’d definitely have to be on the Heroes tribe, but I’m not sure who she can replace.  In terms of archetype, she most closely matches Cirie, and production’s not giving up Cirie’s spot to anyone, even in this timeline.  While it’s then tempting to say she takes Candice’s spot, especially given how controversial Candice’s inclusion was to begin with, but recall that production, for whatever reason, likes to give a lot of its spots over to women who look good in a bikini.  Kathy, for all that she is a lovely person with many great qualities, does not fit this mold, and when you’ve already got Cirie on your tribe, that’s 2/5 of the women on your tribe given over to “non-eye candy”, which I just don’t see production doing.  I DO see them getting a lot of flak for not having Kathy on this season, but I don’t see them changing their minds.  

No, given how popular her son Patrick’s appearance on the show was during the family visit, I would guess that she and Patrick get tapped for “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, though if that falls through I could also see Kathy ending up on “Survivor Game Changers”, probably in Sierra’s spot, since that originally belonged to Natalie Anderson, another female winner that Kathy could easily replace in this timeline.  This probably shakes up the tribes of the season, as again, production won’t want Kathy and Cirie on the same tribe initially.  And of course, there’s no way in this timeline Kathy isn’t brought back for “Survivor Winners at War” as a four-peat.  She probably takes over Amber’s spot.  

But, of course, there’s one big returnee season Kathy impacts that I’ve only barely touched on.  Yes, folks, Kathy’s win definitely has an impact on “Survivor All-Stars”.  Now, on the surface, it might seem like a minimal impact.  After all, Kathy was on that season in our timeline, and her winning doesn’t seem like that would preclude her from appearing again.  It’s not in Kathy’s nature to say “no”.  Yeah, maybe Kathy has a bigger target as a result of winning now, but would it really change the season that much?  

Yes, dear reader.  Yes it would.  Maybe not from a player standpoint, but from a production standpoint.  I don’t think the All-Stars we have in our timeline would be the All-Stars we have in this timeline.  But that is a complicated change.  One that, I think, merits its own write-up.  So, join me in what’s hopefully only a couple weeks this time when we look at “Survivor What-Ifs: All-Stars”!  

In the meantime, though, thank you once again for joining me on this little thought experiment, and sticking with me after a long, unplanned hiatus!  The next blog topic may be reserved, but blogs down the line aren’t.  If there’s a “What If?” scenario you want to read about, I would be happy to write it up if it looks interesting!  Feel free to submit your ideas in the comments below, or anywhere else I’ve linked this blog!  You will be credited if your idea gets used.  Since it’s been a while, a reminder of the ground rules for any idea to be considered for the blog:  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast rules, there are two what I call “Flexible Rules”.  As the name would imply, these rules can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are two things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

Again, I cannot thank you all enough for sticking with this blog through an annoyingly long hiatus, and I look forward to your feedback and thoughts in the future!  

-Matt