Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Finale: Got Me Saying It

You all know I like my running gags around here.  I mean, there’s a reason the “Matthew Grinstead-Mayle Injury Rock (TM)” kept getting mentioned several episodes after it had any relevance this season.  And one of my other ones has been at the expense of Ben, or at least his catchphrase.  This is partly in fun, partly out of how basic it is, and partly out of me just not connecting with Ben (nothing against the guy; we just have little in common).  And yet, for all that I mock, I must now eat my words, as there is simply no other way to say it:

This season rocks.  

To find out exactly why, we go back to the beginning, with everyone getting back to camp.  And I do mean, CAMP.  Yes, for the first time in the new era, we’re NOT stuck going to some new beach for the final five for some reason!  I assumed they just neglected to mention it since we’d assume it was coming last episode, but nope!  They’re just doing away with it entirely.  Hope that stays.  It was a pointless, annoying twist that just ate up time.  

Instead, we focus on more important things, like how exactly Maria plans to save her skin after being blindsided.  The answer, it seems, is running back to Charlie tail between her proverbial legs.  She’s clearly emotional about the whole thing, and in confessional admits that being in this position really hurts and frustrates her (rather defeatist, if I’m being honest.  Not a good look on her), but does her level best to try and claw something back.  She spins a tale to Charlie about Liz and Kenzie insisting that it would be him, only to blindside her.  A lie Charlie sees right through, but at least his “Keep my options open” strategy is bearing fruit.  For his part, Charlie admits to feeling a mite betrayed by the whole thing, but also acknowledges that he can’t really complain when he’d have done the same to her were she not immune.  All in all, Maria is still on extremely thin ice, but she’s doing what she can to give herself a proverbial lifeline.  

But this has not been a season solely focussed on strategy.  No, more so than any season in the new era, this one is about the DRAMA!  Naturally, the eviction of one such as Q cannot be left alone, and we get our gloating in the form of Liz, happy that her game has taken off.  Really gives me “Survivor Vanuatu” vibes.  The person you voted off it may not have been smart to do, but MAN are you happy about it and going to tell the world about it.  This is the modern version of Scout’s “No Eliza Noises” confessional, basically.  

Morning comes, and we get another nice surprise: NO stupid challenge advantage scavenger hunt!  No, we instead just get a reaffirmation of the need to beat Maria today, and we head off to our challenge.  Simple, effective, nothing in excess.  Maybe the show is learning after all.  

Our challenge… Well I would call it another standard obstacle course, but this one has a few fun beats that, if not original, at least help it stand out.  In particular, an early mud net crawl (for which Liz has to take off her glasses, only to put them on.  Personally I’d leave my glasses off for the entirety of the challenge, if possible), using a rope ball on a string to pull down a bridge, and a puzzle giving clues of what to count for a combination lock.  Fun elements that you don’t see in your standard obstacle course, and so I’ll give this one a pass.  

Maria and Charlie are initially the frontrunners on this challenge, though Kenzie manages to get even with them on the puzzle.  That’s where things get funky.  As mentioned, the puzzle, when solved, reveals a clue of things to count to open a combination lock.  One of these things are the number of holes in a plank that was used RIGHT after the mud crawl on the challenge, basically necessitating a re-running of the obstacle course for our contestants.  Sadistic, but this portion actually ends up being a bit broken.  You see, Liz and Ben are both pretty much out of it.  Liz, however, realizing that she’s unlikely to win, sets out to help Kenzie.  She goes to retrieve Kenzie’s plank, thereby leaving Kenzie free to count the two other things, which are readily available to her.  Maria, conversely, has to run the whole thing once she solves the puzzle, costing her valuable time.  Kenzie does make a mistake in her own counting, but still manages to pull out a win.  

This may come as a surprise to some, since I panned Sophie suggesting that Albert do exactly this back in the infancy days of my blog, aka “Survivor South Pacific”, but I actually like this move for Liz.  The difference here is that in the challenge with Sophie and Albert, there was the possibility, however remote, that Ozzy could mess up, thereby opening the door for everyone else.  In an individual game, Albert has no need to help Sophie.  Yes, the want to beat Ozzy, but he could possibly fail on his own in that scenario.  This is a “First past the post” race, with no real way to fall behind (save for Liz herself forgetting her key at one point, which was a good laugh), so helping someone else gain ground is much smarter.  Moreover, by winning immunity, Kenzie can come across as being the person to “vanquish” the main threat of the season, that being Maria.  By helping her, you steal some of that credit for yourself.  If Liz had a real chance to win that challenge, I’d be more critical, but if you can’t win, then at least influence the outcome.  Besides, Adam Klein did this on “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”, and it helped him win the whole game.  Hmm, I wonder if that particular challenge will be relevant later this episode…

In addition to Immunity, Kenzie also gets to take one person to “The Sanctuary” for a meal, since  Probst just needs to annoy me with that slogan ONE MORE TIME!  Kenzie chooses Ben, which is the logical choice.  Apart from the pair being close, Kenzie probably wants to solidify strategy talk with him.  They do so on the reward, with Ben talking about how nice it is to have a true friend out here, not just someone to talk game with.  Solidifying once and for all that Ben is a genuine, nice guy without a strategic bone in his body.  

Thankfully we have some real strategy talk back at camp.  Were I in Maria’s position, I would be gunning hard for Charlie.  He’s proved willing to vote against your own interests, and is easier to talk up as a threat than basically anyone else left.  I am NOT Maria, however, as evidenced by the fact that she tries to target BEN instead.  Look, I get not wanting to burn your bridge with Charlie, but for Maria at this point, the philosophy should be “Anyone but me.” And again, Charlie is the easiest to target.  Hell, even if you DO want to work with him, there’s not reason to include him on your idol hunt!  You really think he’s going to let you know if he finds it?  Get real.  

To Maria’s credit, however, I will say she is an excellent salesperson.  As mentioned, she targets Ben, spinning a lie about how Ben’s Kenzie vote WASN’T a mistake, but a game move, and he can pull this sort of stunt with a bunch of things at the end.  Her tone and word choice almost make it believable, until you hear Ben say “That rocks” for the umpteenth time.  More compelling, and more realistic, is her point that Ben has many friends on the jury, and is well-liked.  For some juries, that’s all it takes.  It’s enough to get Liz and Charlie thinking, and is decent enough misdirection, but I’m not buying it.  Maria’s target is just too big.  You do not help someone else win a challenge just to keep the person you were trying to beat around.  

Evidently the editing team feels the same way, as any chance of misdirection goes out the window at Tribal Council, with Kenzie even flat-out admitting she’s voting Maria.  Thus, this Tribal turns into Maria’s farewell tour, which is definitely earned, but not that compelling.  Her talk of growing up with Lebanese immigrant parents is nice enough, but it doesn’t leave as much of an impact as it perhaps might have had at other times.  

So confident is the show that we don’t buy its own misdirection that they show all the votes.  A rare misstep in editing for this episode.  I’ll talk about it more throughout the blog, but the editing on this episode in particular had a lot of little funny moments I really enjoyed, and ranged from highly competent to masterful in most dramatic moments.  Here, however?  I get that the misdirection was weak, but if you’re going to drop it halfway through, why have it at all?  Just let this be one big swan song for Maria.  I will say, however, that I did enjoy Kenzie’s voting confession.  Her saying she “Wants to be [Maria] when [she] grows up”, coming from a woman who was 29 at the time of filming, is hilarious.  

I presume the Shot in the Dark has expired by now (I care about it so little, I honestly can’t remember), since Maria does not play it, and unsurprisingly goes.  I am sorry to see her go.  Maria is the most competent strategist I’d have been ok with winning this season (I’ll get more into that at the end), since she did make some mistakes, and as demonstrated this episode, could get a bit emotional.  It would have been a fitting win for the season, and we’re also badly in need of an older female winner by now.  You shall be missed, Maria.  

Also, while this in no way impacted boot order that we can tell, it IS a bit depressing that we’ve got four white people at the end, Maria being the last person of color left.  That said, clearly the diversity initiative is still doing its job properly, since this is the first season in the new era while the final three won’t contain at least one person of color.  This was just kind of a fluke in how this particular game played out, not any sort of commentary on how these players perceive that aspect.  

We should be preparing for our final Immunity Challenge, but before we can get to that, we need to add something ELSE to Liz’s ongoing list of ailments!  On top of all the allergies, she tells us she has weak joints that frequently don’t work properly.  Again I ask: And you came on “Survivor” WHY?  Liz is going to be sorry about that as well, given what our final challenge is that…

YOU’RE GOING TO PLAY “PLINKO” FOR UP TO $50,000!

Ok, ok, it’s not that, but given that CBS owns both franchises, it would have been funny if Probst had said that.  No, our players just have to assemble a puzzle of the logo of the season.  Simple, right?  Well, before they can begin, they have to toss a ball to the top of basically a giant pegboard, and catch it before it hits a metal ramp as it comes down.  Fail, and they can’t keep working on their puzzle until the ball goes ALL the way down the ramp, in an agonizing slow fashion.  This must be done continuously throughout the challenge.  

Plinko aside, there are probably two challenges that come to mind when you hear this description.  An immunity challenge from “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” is the more 1-1 comparison, particularly as I alluded to earlier.  That was a scaled-down version of this very challenge, memorable since that was when Adam stopped his own challenge to help Ken win, in order to get out a preferred target.  The giant pegboard itself, however?  Well, sad to say that’s now a DEEP cut in “Survivor” history, but for those of you who remember “Survivor Nicaragua” (and frankly I don’t blame anyone who doesn’t want to remember that season), pegboards of this size were used in a tribal immunity challenge.  Did not expect a Nicaragua throwback here, but I’m cool with it.  

Slow and steady really does win the race here.  Charlie and Liz both cut it too close, and drop their ball.  This is one of the funny editing bits, where we cut from the dramatic music of the challenge for everyone else, to “Dodo Music” as Charlie can only sit there and watch his ball.  Kenzie is better at catching her ball, but occasionally has trouble hurling it all the way up to the top of the pegboard (a problem Liz also shares).  Then there’s the time she hurls it TOO hard, and it flies off so she has to retrieve it.  In the end it’s Ben, the one guy to never make such a mistake, who takes the victory.  Quite impressive for the guy who said he was “Operating on two hours of sleep” pre-challenge.  He tries to make an emotional moment out of it, talking about how he was doubted by his peers in his young life, and it honestly feels forced.  I appreciate his struggle, but this late in the game, we don’t need a moment like this.  It isn’t QUITE as melodramatic as Xander’s flashback on “Survivor 41”, but it feels like it’s in the same ballpark.  

This, of course, means the non-strategic Ben must now make a strategic decision.  I’d say every possibility is on the table, given that I think Ben is someone dumb enough to put himself in fire.  After talking about how winning immunity “rocks” (of course), we get another good editing bit.  Charlie rises up in the background over Ben’s shoulder, and the music switches to somber really naturally.  Ben talks about how hard it is to send one of Kenzie or Charlie to the end, given his early bond with Charlie and how nice Kenzie’s been to him this game.  For all my snark, that emotion does hit home really well.  

Less emotional is his decision with Liz!  He flat out tells Liz she’s going in because her game is too strong, showing exactly how in-tune Ben is with the strategy this season.  Liz breaks down, complaining about how everyone is seeing her game, which I only bring up because earlier this season, she was complaining about how no one was seeing her game.  There’s just no satisfying some people.  Liz does quickly buck up and go off to practice fire, however.  She does poorly, but Kenzie and Charlie don’t seem to be doing that much better.  Ben leaves it up in the air which of them he’s going to put in fire to take down Liz, though my money’s on Kenzie, since she seemed more willing to go as a resume building opportunity than Charlie is.  

Of course, ideally Ben should put Charlie in fire, and then whoever he thinks can beat Charlie, in an effort to get out what could be perceived as his biggest threat at the end, but we all know Ben doesn’t think like that.  Instead, at Tribal Council, he picks Kenzie and Liz to go in.  The fire-making itself is pretty standard, but Probst makes it worse by inserting himself into the narrative.  He mentions how the show did not provide test kits this season.  He notes that Kenzie’s issues are due to pressure.  He describes the fire triangle to the players.  Look, Probst, I enjoy your commentary more than most, but this is REALLY unnecessary.  Also yes, we get it, you were in Scouts as a kid, you don’t need to emphasize that.  

Unsurprisingly, given her various ailments, Liz looses to Kenzie, something the jury is very obvious about preferring.  Proving once and for all that Liz has absolutely zero self-knowledge, she talks about how she played the best game of anyone left, and was 100% going to win at the end, even continuing the rant into her final words.  In case it wasn’t clear, I’m not sorry to see Liz go.  With Ben at the end as well, the outcome would have been obvious, in that whoever wasn’t Liz or Ben was going to win. Now, with both Charlie and Kenzie there, there is some mystery.  Don’t misunderstand, Liz was an INCREDIBLY fun character.  She could just be a little much at times.  

Our Day 26 breakfast is interspersed both with the players practicing their opening speeches (pretty cool to see them not be 100% confident), and our jurors trying to misdirect us on who they’ll vote for.  Honestly, the juror’s answers here are mostly generic stuff that tells us very little.  Like with “Survivor 45”, some of it seems legit (Tiffany favoring Kenzie, for example), while some of it is clearly them trying to follow production’s instruction to create doubt they might vote for someone they have no intention of voting for (Q implying that Ben has a shot, for example).  Nothing offensive, but not worth deep commentary on, especially when we have a good Final Tribal Council to get to.  

Ben starts off our opening speeches, and we quickly see just how out of the running he is.  He talks about how he didn’t play strategically and was out of the loop, TRYING to tie it back into his social game.  Kenzie does a much better job, highlighting her bonds with everyone while also noting that she was willing to make moves as needed.  Charlie lands in the middle, focussing more on the strategy side of things, but not selling the emotion.  Fair enough, though I’m surprised Charlie didn’t bring up his “Always have options” philosophy, since I’d argue it’s one of the stronger points of his gameplay this season.  

Then we come to the jury, and this is normally where I’d complain about the new jury format.  Not so this time because, well, the new jury format kind of died out this season.  Yeah, Probst introduces the jury to start things off, but then only really speaks to them in order to ask who wants to speak next.  Acting as a moderator, not interjecting his own philosophy into the game, which was my main critique of that format.  The other issue I had was that a lack of individual questions made the jury itself kind of mush together, but again, not so this season.  With the exception of Liz (and I might just have missed hers) everyone DID ask one question.  Really the only difference between this and the original jury format is that people don’t stand up to ask their question, and can interject on other’s questions.  Granted I still prefer the original jury format, rather than the fact-checking we have here, but if this was to be the compromise between jury formats, I’m 100% ok with it.  

All that said, while I enjoyed this jury, people talking during other’s questions did make some of them blend together, so I’m going to be hitting the jury highlights and lowlights rather than giving a blow-by-blow of each question.  First off, major props to Tiffany for starting us off, and cutting off ANY Taylor Swift references before they start, as well as the phrase” That rocks/does not rock”.  Nice to see the jury knows how to get on my good side, at least.  

We also learn that even being on the jury cannot stop Q (who I must point out is STILL wearing the “Q-Skirt”) from trying to rewrite reality.  Asked to name a move they themselves made in the game, Ben falters by, well, not having a move.  Kenzie tries to argue that she successfully navigated the split vote after the merge, citing Q and Tiffany’s competing interests as something difficult to navigate.  This, of course, leads Q to deny ever doing this (objectively false), and starts another min-riot before Tiffany gets it back under control.  Not to say Charlie fares much better.  In fact, you could argue he did more for Kenzie than she did for herself!  Charlie tries to claim credit for the Hunter vote.  Reasonable enough, but unfortunately, Hunter is on the jury, and confirms that it was Kenzie that made him feel comfortable, thereby giving her credit for his ouster.  

Tevin asks how everyone used someone else on the jury to further their game.  Kenzie names Q once again, while Charlie gives a masterful answer in saying he used Tevin himself, noting the rift between him and Soda made him a good shield.  Normally a solid answer, but it looks like Tevin’s not buying it.  Still better than Ben who, again, doesn’t really have any sort of good answer.  The question he does best on is Q’s, who wants to know how the million dollars will change their lives.  Ben notes all the communities he’d like to help in South Florida, a nice sentiment that comes across as genuine from him.  Kenzie notes that she’ll be using the money for herself, giving her security as a small business owner.  Charlie’s is the weakest, giving some blather about “family”.  Not terrible, but Ben and Kenzie are hard acts to follow on this question.  For the final highlight, Soda asks everyone to summarize their game in 30 seconds or less, something only Kenzie is able to do successfully.  Charlie starts making some good points, but comes in a bit over the 30 second mark, preventing him from tying everything together.  And Ben’s still warming up when his 30 seconds are up.  

We do hear closing arguments from everyone this time, and it’s here where Charlie finally bring up his “Keep options open” argument I think he should have emphasized more.  And, right at the end, Ben breaks Tiffany’s “rocks” moratorium.  A funny note to cap the season on.  

Charlie’s argument was good, but it was too little, too late.  Like “Survivor 45” it was a close 5-3 vote, but once again, the woman pulls it out.  Kenzie is our victor, and I personally am THRILLED!  All due respect to Charlie, he played a good game, and arguably was more in the strategic driver’s seat than Kenzie.  He may have been perceived as Maria’s lapdog, but at lest he was making decisions.  Very few of Kenzie’s plans got carried out, and if they were, it was sometimes without her knowledge, like the Tiffany blindside.  But that said, he almost played TOO good of a game.  I’ve compared this to “Survivor Gabon” a number of times, and I stand by that comparison.  Charlie played a neat, normal game, which would contrast horribly with the overall chaotic season this ended up being.  It would be like if Charlie Herschel had won “Survivor Gabon”.  You could understand why and respect the win, but on a season like that, it wouldn’t be satisfying.  

Not to say that Kenzie was un-strategic, far from it.  She made excellent use of her relationships in the game, and schemed enough that, even if she didn’t succeed, she was perceived as a player worthy of respect.  Bhanu building her up on his journey probably helped.  As to how she fits the chaos of the season?  Well, while she usually played with her head, she could be petty and vindictive when slighted (see how she treated Q after he turned on her).  Granted, she kept that mostly in confessional, but that’s to her credit as a player.  And hey, the player dubbed “Mermaid-Dragon” is a fitting type of person to win an out-there season like this.  

All that said, I actually want to make a different comparison.  The season as a whole may be the New Era “Survivor Gabon”, but this Final Tribal, to me, is “Survivor Kaoh Rong” done right.  The final three was effectively a duel between our more strategic player who as the narrator of the season (Aubry/Charlie) versus the person who may not have had as much control, but had a simple narrative the jury could believe, and was well-connected with them socially (Michele/Kenzie).  And once again, the social player wins, re-emphasizing the social game as being paramount on this show.  Where I think this season succeeds, where Kaoh Rong fails, is that it does a better job balancing these two finalists.  Unlike Aubry, Charlie isn’t seen as the MAIN strategic driving force of the season, merely a very good player who happened to control votes near the end, so his game doesn’t come across quite as unbeatable.  Conversely, we got more emphasis on Kenzie’s relationships, making her seem more of an equal in that regard than Michele seemed to Aubry.  Granted, we probably didn’t need MULTIPLE scenes of Kenzie comforting Ben following his night terrors, but the point still stands.  Plus, this season didn’t hide key relationships Kenzie made that impacted the end of the season.  Contrast with Michele, where you’d be forgiven for thinking she and Cydney didn’t speak until the merge, despite that ACTUALLY being the driving force later on, rather than the Cydney/Aubry relationship.  

So yes, this season does a lot of good, and I thoroughly enjoyed it.  The same cannot be said for the after show, which is easily one of, if not the, worst of the New Era.  With the possible exception of Mike Turner (“Survivor 42”) no contestant has ever looked more defeated at the end than Charlie, a fact Probst notes, and talks about how rough it must be.  If you know it’s going to be hard on him, Probst, THEN WHY DON’T YOU GIVE THEM SOME TIME TO PROCESS BEFORE JUMPING STRAIGHT INTO A REUNION?!  LET THEM GRIEVE, FOR CORN’S SAKE!  

Apart from that gripe, most of the rest of the after show is fine, though a bit rushed.  We hit most of the points you’d expect.  Who voted for who, everyone going out with idols in their pockets, that sort of thing.  The one good bit I’d say was in there was Probst talking about how several terms have entered the “Survivor” lexicon from this season alone, leading to montage of key quotes past.  And there’s some deep cuts, like Sandra’s “I can get loud too!” from “Survivor Pearl Islands”, and Sue’s “Rats and Snakes” speech all the way back from “Survivor Borneo”.  Famous, to be sure, but that was over 20 years ago now.  I’m impressed the show was willing to make that callback.  About the only major ommission is “She died, dude.” from the Dead Grandma Lie, in my view.

And make no mistake, there are several things from this season that will already be sticking around for years to come in this community.  “Several”.  “BIG MISTAKE”. “Christmas is Cancelled”.  To a lesser extent, even “Q-Skirt”, “That does/does not rock”, and a reinvigoration of Applebee’s memes.  And that’s really the thing about this season: In an era known for everything blending together due to a similar format, this season stands out.  Lots of contestants who weren’t self-aware.  Things getting really personal without turning full-on ugly.  Random, crazy tangents.  You can’t mistake this for any other season, and that’s why it’s one of the greats.  Low end of greats for me (again, just below “Survivor Gabon”) due to it not going quite as far as it could, but still a really fun ride.  Yes, it cannot be denied that this season had an INCREDIBLY slow start, but given what came more towards the end, I’d say it was worth it.  

Will “Survivor 47” be the same level of fun?  Eh, I hope so, but it’s kind of hard to tell.  The cast didn’t seem bad from what we saw, just kind of generic.  Though I will admit a fondness for the guy who said his only camping experience was once in Cub Scouts, which he left early due to throwing up.  I sympathize.  

Well, with discussion of the season out of the way, let’s look back at my pre-season predictions, and see where I went right and I went wrong.  

Jem-Wrong.  Did not see her overplaying that much at all.  

Ben-Wrong.  Much more sociable, and much more longer-lived than I would have anticipated.  

Jess-She was a little more socially awkward than I predicted, but I did say she’d be out pre-merge for costing a challenge, so I’ll give myself this one.  

Bhanu-Not exactly the first out, and a messier player than I’d have guessed.  Still, I’d say I was at least somewhat close here.  Not a full on “right”, but closer to right than wrong.  

Kenzie-I’ll give myself Kenzie.  I said she was close to being a winner pick and, well, she won.  

Charlie-Wrong.  Much less nerdy and much more longer-lived than I guessed.  

Liz-Wrong.  Somehow even bigger of a personality than I anticipated, yet also much longer lived.  Blame Hunter.  

Jelinsky-Wrong, but in all fairness, who could predict Jelinsky?  

Maria-Spot on, for once.  Nailed her placement, and the reason why she’d go.  

Hunter-Wrong.  His physical game was much better than it looked, and the rest of his game, much worse.  

Moriah-She left a bit earlier than I anticipated, but I think I got her personality pretty well.  

Q-Wrong, but again, like with Jelinsky, who could have predicted anything about this guy?  Attempting to do so is a fool’s errand.  

Soda-Wrong.  I was somewhat close on her time in the game, but she was much more of a force to be reckoned with than I gave her credit for.  

Randen-Wrong, but then again, evacuations are much harder to anticipate.  

Tiffany-Wrong.  She had much more game than I thought she would.  And I’m all the happier for it.  

Tevin-Wrong.  This is the one I feel worst about.  Dude ended up being a favorite of mine this season, with a distinctive style and charm out the wazoo.  He may have lasted about as long as I thought he would, but I still give myself the loss on this one.  Not sure why I thought he’d be annoying.  It think it was his laugh in the preview.  I like everything about Tevin but his laugh.  

Venus-Right on personality, wrong on time in the game.  

Tim-Eh, kind of right.  I think I was a bit down on his chances, but he lasted about the length I thought he would, and certainly wasn’t a strategic powerhouse.  

And that about wraps up this season.  Like I said, definitely one of the greats.  Between this and my love for “Survivor 45”, we’re on a good trajectory I hope the show can keep up.  In the meantime, as we enter the off-season, keep on the lookout for more content from me.  We’ll certainly see the return of “Survivor What-Ifs?” and maybe a few other old series if I feel up to it.  

Final thing to say about this season: I’ll be driving near Charlotte NC tomorrow.  I’d better see a billboard celebrating Kenzie as I pass by.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode 6: Desperate Times, Desperate Measures

Tribal Council is the place to make a “Hail Mary” play on “Survivor”, for a variety of reasons.  Yet it’s rarely the SMART place to make that type of play.  It can work on occasion, and nearly always produces spectacular fireworks, but by the time we get to Tribal, most people want to follow the advice of the late, great Keith Sale (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”, RIP), and “Stick to the Plan.”  Much as the show wants to paint Tribals as “Live”, they very rarely are, and half the time it’s editing.  Still, with these softball Tribals, we have to take what little drama we can get.  

Before I get into our “mergatory” (still hate that name), however, it’s time for another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Brief one here, but so caught up was I in making fun of Hunter for failing the logo-ordering journey last episode, that I forgot to talk about something I liked about it, namely the callbacks to “Survivor” history.  So much of the “New Era” has come at the expense of the old, to the point where the show minimized these types of references before.  Granted, that policy has been relaxed as we’ve gone on, but still, it’s nice to see the show be willing to admit it had seasons pre-COVID.  

Even so, our focus should be on the season in front of us, so let’s get back to that.  Having been on the wrong side of the vote, Moriah admits to being a bit uncomfortable.  Still, she tries to keep an optimistic view, saying she’d rather be “A living idiot than a dead Know-It-All”.  Decent attitude to have, while also throwing shade at Rob Cesternino (“Survivor The Amazon”) and Stephen Fishbach (“Survivor Tocantins”), despite neither of them being dead.  She admits discomfort to the tribe, but seems to re-integrate decently well, largely thanks to Ben smoothing things over.  Nevertheless, Tim admits in confessional that while they want to be “Siga Strong”, if push comes to shove, Moriah is on the bottom.  

Moving up from the bottom is Yanu, who get mail the next morning telling them to drop their buffs, and that they have 10 minutes to gather their things.  We get one last look at the Matthew Grinstead-Mayle Injury Rock (TM) as they celebrate being on the upswing.  Nothing much going on here, though I will say I find it weird that they refer to this as “Tree Mail”, when it clearly came from a boat.  Should have gone the “Survivor Pearl Islands” route and called it “Sea Mail”, at least. 

There are a couple of funny bits here, though.  Q tries to give his camp a nice send-off, only for Tiffany to say that the came sucked and gave them basically nothing, but in a humorous way.  Because Tiffany keeps it real.  Tiffany also reveals that she has named her idol “Idolecia”.  This has no bearing on anything, but is pretty cute.  Good pun.  

Yanu may not have had much to say, but they get more of a reaction than Siga, which just boils down to Moriah being happy to have options.  No, despite being the camp everyone will move to, it’s Nami that has the big reaction.  Everyone passes the note around, with Hunter giving it to Venus, and I’m surprised Soda didn’t snatch that note away instantaneously.  

Now, we have more game-important reactions to discuss.  More specifically Hunter, since now his Beware Advantage clue comes in.  Gotta say, this result feels lame.  I don’t want Hunter to lose his vote in perpetuity, obviously, but I figured not going to Tribal would mean some extra-difficult task to get the key to get his idol.  Instead he’s asked to solve a “riddle” that basically says “Dig by your tribe’s steps”, which he does, getting the key with seemingly little effort, despite what the show tries desperately to imply.  

From there, things proceed much as you’d expect.  Everyone celebrates coming together, but we quickly get to strategy talk.  When questioned about the Jem boot, Siga all toe the line on it being unanimous.  Good for Moriah, since it makes it clear the others do still want to work with her, but I’d say bad for the tribe as a whole.  Yanu is no threat, and in comparison, Nami is much freer with their targets.  As such, if Yanu ends up being the swing between the two tribes (which seems at least semi-likely), they’re much more inclined to want to break up the one with no visible cracks.  

We get out usual honeymoon phase for the new tribe, but it’s a particularly short one.  Unsurprisingly, Venus is the one to kick things off, showing just how salty she is with her tribe by talking about wanting to flip to Yanu.  You know, the tribe with limited power based on numbers alone?  Granted, this would put them on par with Nami, and they could at least temporarily band together against Siga, but still, on paper, you’d think she’d go to Siga with this info.  

Q just files all this away, eager to rekindle the alliance of six that was made on the journey last episode.  His check-in with Hunter and Tevin goes well, but less so his one with Maria.  She does mention Tim talking to her, but in more vague terms about the whole thing than specifics.  Confessionals indicate that Maria DOES know about this alliance, but isn’t sure she wants to go with it.  In a hilarious bit, just because it shows a bad misread, she admit’s she’s flattered by Tim considering her his number one, but has him in her top three at best.  Something about that disconnect is funny.  Anyway, Q goes to Tim, who says he’ll talk to Maria more firmly.  Privately, he says he does want the alliance to work out, but isn’t as eager to firm things up as Q.  Shoes the difference in priorities when one’s tribe has attended most Tribal Councils, and one hasn’t.  Good dynamic exploration here.  

The next day sees Venus continuing to put out feelers to multiple people, trying to swing people against Tevin in particular.  She moved on from Hunter, I guess.  Unfortunately, she’s so blunt about it, Charlie calling her “Wicked Smart”.  Charlie, quit trying to be Jake (“Survivor 45”).  You’re not pulling it off.  More intriguingly, we see Tim actually talk to Maria about the six alliance.  Unsurprisingly, Maria is unenthused, though she seems to do a good job hiding this from Tim.  She does say in confessional that she likes it as an option, but is so far wanting to stay Siga strong.  Understandable from her perspective, but bad for basically everyone else in that alliance, lending yet more credence to the vibes that it’s not sustainable.  

This is not the only strategy conversation we have.  Wanting to get more information on Saga’s dynamics, Q speaks one-on-one with Moriah.  She toes the line, but notes that Q is a bit more forceful with her than others have been, making her a bit suspicious that he’s sussed things out.  In reality this just seems to be Q’s style, very blunt and up front, but it’s easy to see why she feels that way, so I don’t blame her in the slightest.  Hell, she even toes the Siga line, so she’s not intentionally blowing up her game.  Despite this, Q doesn’t trust her.  Why?  Well, she names Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”) as her favorite player.  

On a completely unrelated note, Moriah just became my favorite player this season.  

Anyway, why does this turn off Q?  Well, as he notes, Aubry is a great strategist, executing excellent move after excellent move.  The snarky part of me wants to point out that “Survivor Game Changers” and ESPECIALLY “Survivor Edge of Extinction” beg to disagree on this description of Aubry, but as the self-appointed head of the “Aubry Lobby”, I’m going to let it slide.  Any and all pro-Aubry propaganda is welcome on my “Survivor”.  

This brings us to our challenge, which works basically the same as all the others.  Go through mud obstacles, stack sandbags to make stairs, climb a giant ball, puzzle is the first one from “Survivor Cagayan”.  It’s so standard at this point, and I’m so over the same thing happening at this point in the season.  Please, show, variety is all I ask!  Granted, this group seems oddly confused by how this part of the game works, but that’s more a mark against them than a mark in the format’s favor.  

There’s not even any drama of who will win!  It’s going to be the purple team, consisting of Kenzie, Q, Ben, Tim, Hunter, and Tevin.  Not only did they get ALL the challenge beasts of the season (particularly Hunter), but even if they didn’t we KNOW they win thanks to the “Next Time On…” segment from last episode.  That mentioned Liz and Soda being against one another, a scene we haven’t seen yet, meaning they along with Venus, Charlie, Maria, and Moriah must lose.  Otherwise there would be no point in those players targeting one another, since they’d be immune.  Even Tiffany sees the writing on the wall, and after a humorous half-second seeming to consider her options, hitches herself the purple team.  Even factoring out challenge ability, smart choice.  All her allies are there.  

I’ll give the orange team this: They put up a good fight.  Hell, they’re actually ahead for the first leg of the challenge, only falling behind when it comes to loading and pushing sandbags, due to that being all brute strength.  They even make up a good bit of time on the puzzle.  The one good thing I’ll say about this challenge is that EVERYONE, in sections, has to do the puzzle.  You can’t rely on one puzzle whiz to do the whole thing.  You’re only as fast as your slowest solver.  Unfortunately for orange, purple saved Hunter for the end, and since this challenge has nothing to do with past season logos, he naturally wins it for them.  Tevin notes this, and I’m SURE it won’t matter for later for Hunter.  Our winning several get their very nice deep red buffs, while the losers go to wash off the dirt.  

There’s tension in the air, though in a nice moment, Venus looks on the bright side.  They might not have won, but they did come close.  No small feat, given how uneven these teams were.  Granted she undercuts the niceness by wishing the winners to choke on the food, but hey, it’s something.  

Speaking of said winners, they quickly get to discussing who to vote out.  Initially, Venus is very much the target, thrown out emphatically by Tevin.  Most everyone seems ok with this, but in the interest of parity, Yanu wants Siga to throw out a name as well.  Ben continues to toe the party line of them being unified, which Tiffany FINALLY calls out in confessional.  As I mentioned before, she rightly notes that this is not a good reason to want to work with Siga.  As a result, when Tim finally cracks and reluctantly throws out Moriah as an option, she quickly becomes the consensus boot.  

So, with it being down to Moriah or Venus, I would say the choice is clear: Moriah must go.  I get the reasons for wanting to get rid of Venus, but she’s SUCH an outsider that she can be gotten rid of anytime, while Moriah could slip under the radar if you let her by.  True, Venus could slip under the radar as well, but at this point she’s SO disliked I have difficulty seeing her winning over a jury.  So if she gets to the end, hey, easy victory against her.  For Yanu and Nami, it makes a crack in the seemingly unified Siga, and for Siga, it lowers their threat level without actually sacrificing that much.  As such, in an ideal world, voting out one of the other Siga might truly be Yanu/Nami’s smartest move, but I don’t see it happening, and a Moriah exit is still a victory for them, on at least some level.  

Despite this, we need to add SOME evidence for a Venus boot, which Venus gladly provides.  Rather than just being happy to hear she’s been spared, she’s concerned that a woman is going, when they have the numbers.  She tries to swing the vote to Charlie, which as I say COULD be a good move for Nami/Yanu, but they’re not biting.  Understandable, given that she explicitly framed it as a move against the men, so Hunter, Tevin, and Q at least would have a reason to be opposed.  Q in particular is mad about this, calling Venus “ungrateful” after “he saved her.”  Not sure how much agency Q had in that, and this is really not a good look on Q.  I could kind of understand it with Jelinsky, but dude gets really absolutist and morally righteous when he thinks things should go a certain way.  That’s his right, of course, but not good in the game of “Survivor”, and in cases like this, can come off as having sexist overtones.  I don’t think Q IS sexist, to be clear.  At worst, he’s a southern gentleman taking things to their logical conclusion from that (for example, Tiffany apparently wanted to do the Sweat task with Q, but he refused to “let a lady do that”), which is not going to fly with everyone.  Even with all this, I still lean towards a Moriah exit, particularly given her increased screen time this episode.  

Thank goodness for Moriah finding out about her boot, since otherwise they Tribal Council would have nothing beyond standard double-talk.  Even as it is, what we get isn’t great.  Things break when Moriah admits there IS a crack in Siga, and it’s her.  A decent enough move as a desperation play, but probably too late.  Further, as Q points out, it makes her look bad, since she lied to cover it up.  I ragged on Q for some of how he came off this episode, but credit where it’s due, the man shines here.  He calmly and plainly explains why, while he’s happy to know that, it doesn’t change must from a trust scenario.  Moriah for her part handles things with a similar grace, emphasizing her pitch without seeming desperate.  

Even with these “fireworks”, the needle doesn’t seem to move, and Moriah understandably plays her Shot in the Dark.  Not everyone is Kaleb (“Survivor 45”) sadly, and Moriah is not safe.  She therefore goes, Venus receiving exactly one vote from Charlie, presumably to protect in case Moriah’s Shot in the Dark was successful.  Tevin also wisely saved his extra vote, though I will note I did love his little dance when he received it.  

Jokes about Aubry love aside, I’m overall not sad to see Moriah go.  Venus brought much more drama, and it’s always nice to see people make the smart move.  And hey, Moriah handles her exit with a ton of class, which is always nice to see.  

Actually, that sums up this episode pretty well: It was nice to see.  It’s not going down in the annals of “Survivor” greatness, but it executed everything competently, had some good humorous moments, and was overall just an solid, but unremarkable episode of the show.  If Q really does go down the dark path and show his worst qualities next episode, however, this may be the high point of the season…

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 9: 2 B A Master

If I had a nickel for every time someone brought up “Pokemon” on a season of “Survivor”, I’d have two nickels.  Which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird that it happened twice, isn’t it?  Weird or not, my little nerdy heart loves it, as well as the fact that I can use it to make a “Phineas and Ferb” reference in the process.

Our fallout from the last Tribal Council is truly a tale of two reactions.  We start off with very somber music, where Kendra looks dejectedly out to sea, mourning the loss of her closest ally.  She raises her canteen in a toast, even.  You have to feel bad for Kendra here.  Nearly every Tribal Council she’s been at has not gone the way she expected, either due to an ally being blindsided (Brando and Kellie’s boots), or Kaleb’s Shot in the Dark play shaking things up.  Only the Sifu boot has gone the way she expected without any drama, and that’s not a great track record at Tribal Councils.  Still, the situation is treated soberly and with great respect by the show.  

By the other contestants?  Not so much.  There’s loud whooping and hollering from everyone else.  From Reba+Emily, it’s due to a successful blindside.  From Jake, it’s just happiness to still be in the game.  Jake is fully aware that he’s still on the bottom, but he survived when he really shouldn’t, and frankly, that’s worth celebrating.  Just maybe not as loudly as he is.  Kind of killing Kendra’s mood, bro.  

About the only one to join in Kendra’s feelings is Bruce, who deduces that Kellie was booted for being too close to him.  Reba takes an odd glee in dispelling Bruce of notion, informing him that Kellie felt smothered by him; that she was “under house arrest” with him, and that he was overall too controlling.  Bruce is kind of too shell-shocked by this to really do much about it now, but remember that for later.  Luckily for him, Kendra and Katurah are quickly getting on the same page.  Dee, they decide, has too much power, and needs to go.  A very sensible conclusion.  

Sadly, said conclusion is based on the assumption that, Bruce feud aside, the old Belo can come together to try and pull something off against the old Reba, somehow.  This assumption is faulty.  Katurah declares old Belo a dead tribe, and immediately runs to tell old Reba about this plan.  Shock of all shocks, Dee is not too happy about this, and swears that Kendra will pay for daring to bring up her name.  

It seems she’ll soon have company in that, however.  Emily may have been content to ride with Drew and Austin for a while, but she’s not going to sit on her hands if she thinks she’s fifth place!  No, she takes time in the morning to put out feelers to Drew and Austin about cutting Dee at some point, noting that she’ll likely win at the end.  The results of these feelers are, to put it bluntly, not good.  Neither Drew nor Austin has a good poker face here, with Drew in particular getting a rather disgusted look at the thought.  Austin puts out the excuse that Dee is drawing all the attention away.  Probably true, but doesn’t really answer Emily’s point.  They do a better job responding when Emily says they can’t have Dee in the end, to which they emphatically agree.  Still, it’s clear to Emily that she’s on the bottom of the five, and that’s not a good position.  About the best that can be said is that nothing negative comes from the conversation.  Austin admits in confessional that he understands where Emily’s coming from, and would probably do the same in her shoes.  As such, it seems like she hasn’t lost ground with the alliance.  That said, Austin also makes it clear he’s closer with Dee, so if Emily wants to have a chance at the end-game, she’s going to need to look elsewhere for allies.  

Before we can get to that intriguing storyline, we need to deal with Bruce’s issues.  While Kendra, from what we see, has her head back in the game, Bruce is still reeling.  Both from losing what he thought was a close ally (and being told the opposite), and from what the implications are for his own life.  He claims that he treated Kellie like he does his wife and daughters, and they’ve never complained.  The question he asks himself is: “Am I overbearing to THEM?  Do I need to make some major changes?”  Now, these are all good questions to ask, and good on Bruce for this level of introspection, and willingness to make change.  

That said, Bruce, I think your premise is fundamentally flawed, and you kind of answered you own question there.  You see, you treated Kellie, by your own admission, like one of your KIDS.  Kellie, in contrast, is a grown adult you were nominally in a partnership with.  A very different sort of relationship, and I think any adult would bristle at being treated like one of your children.  Now, the wife thing is a bit more of a direct parallel, but hey, there are some husband/wife relationships where “Husband is the boss”, and maybe Bruce and his wife have that sort of relationship.  No judgment either way, just saying, it could be what they’re comfortable with, but not what Kellie’s comfortable with.  Again, not saying you shouldn’t be asking yourself this stuff, Bruce, and good on you for being mature about it, at least internally, but I think that’s your answer right there.  

Bruce also uses this to tie into his growing up in the foster care system.  I’ll repeat what I said about Kendra bringing up her and her bio dad’s relationship: It’s sweet stuff in the abstract, and I do not want to take away from someone’s personal journey or what they deem the important events in their life.  But when the segway is forced, as it is here, the moment just doesn’t hit like it’s intended to.  

The point of all this is that Bruce is kind of in a “do nothing mood” today, something that does not go unnoticed.  Drew in particular comments here.  Now, I’ve tried to be fair to Drew throughout this season.  He’s not really my type of character, but I’ve given him a fair shake.  Tried not to read too negatively into everything around him.  But man, the dude leaves me no choice he.  He dials the “dick” vibes up to 11 here, talking about how Bruce has played terribly, and how he can now either accept his horrible reality, or laze about and do nothing.  I mean, the assessment’s not inaccurate (if hyperbolic), but it’s how SMUG he seems when he says it.  How SUPERIOR he considers himself as a player.  Drew has now gone from someone I was generally neutral on to someone I’m now fairly firmly against.  

Ok, so now that we’re doing with Bruce’s story, we can see Emily try and make some moves, right?  No, of course not, we’ve got ANOTHER BLOODY TWIST to work in.  Tree Mail arrives telling the tribe to divide themselves into teams of three.  For once, its not random, with them wanting to make the teams as even challenge-wise as possible.  As such, Drew proposes that each tribe have one of each in the categories of “Strong Guy, Strong Girl, Weakling”.  I’d put this into the category of Drew being a dick, but based on how things end up shaking out, I think Drew put himself into the “weakling” category.  As such, I’m inclined to let it slide as self-deprecating.  

To their credit, our teams do end up fairly even.  Austin, Emily, and Katurah make up one team, Drew, Jake, and Dee another, with Bruce, Kendra, and Julie making up the remaining team.  The real drama comes not from the challenge prowess of the teams, however, but from the content.  The players, not unfairly, suspect these may be their voting groups at Tribal Council, which makes Julie in particular concerned that she’ll go, since she’s with two original Belo, and Bruce has an idol.  As such, Austin lets her hold one to keep her safe.  Can’t really fault this move.  Austin does have two of the things, now his amulet is fully upgraded, and Julie is a decent ally to keep around.  Certainly better than Kendra or Bruce.  

The twist is not, however, that these are the voting groups, merely challenge-running groups.  They play through an obstacle course in three stages, with the only truly interesting stage being the final one.  It’s an endurance challenge where the remaining three hold up disks attached to metal pots (which make a very nice clanging sound throughout) with the tips of their fingers.  You may remember this as the showdown challenge between Aubry and Jason on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”.  Don’t worry if you don’t remember it, however.  Probst doesn’t remember it either.  At least not accurately.  I’ll explain in a bit.  

This, then, is the true twist.  The threesome that fails out of the first leg loses their vote, though they will have a chance to earn it back on a “Journey”.  Honestly, my issue with this twist is not in the execution.  If I were to nitpick, I’d say they should have been informed this is what would happen before dividing into groups, but hey, this is “Survivor”.  You don’t get to know everything in advance.  The fact that you don’t just get screwed based on team, with your actions and challenge ability giving you a chance to earn back your vote, mean I don’t think it’s particularly unfair.  

No, my issue with the twist is an ongoing one for the show, one that dates back to at least “Survivor Game Changers”, when I first talked about it in relation to the frequent tribe swaps that season.  It’s the frequency of these twists that is the real momentum-killer.  See, the good thing about twists is that they can shake up the status quo, preventing things from getting too straightforward or predictable.  The paradox, however, is that you have to let the status BE QUO for a bit!  We JUST had a “lose your vote” twist last episode.  Give us a straightforward vote or two before doing so again!  Give the show a chance to develop WITHOUT one of your twists before throwing another one in.  If we don’t let things settle, then we don’t know what needs to be shaken up, and the show just becomes tough to follow, which I’d argue is worse than formulaic.  

Now, I get why the show does this.  The one thing they fear these days is a straightforward Pagonging.  The best way to prevent that is to throw as much at the wall as possible.  Either someone in the minority gets the power to shake things up, or the majority’s steamroll is so quick as to be nonexistent.  A win-win from productions perspective.  But you sacrifice letting the players play as a result, particularly with no guarantee your twist will work in and of itself.  It’s a risk, but in my view, better a couple of predictable episodes than never letting the players play unhindered.  Plus, you twist could just end up being pointless, as we’ll see tonight.  

Despite being ahead most of the challenge, it’s the trio of Austin, Emily, and Katurah that’s out first, mostly due to back luck in the digging portion of the challenge.  Drew, Dee, and Jake end up out second, leading to another showdown between Bruce and Julie, Kendra being the first to drop out, though after a number of spectacular saves.  Here’s where Probst proves he doesn’t remember “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, or at least is misremembering it.  When discussing this challenge, he says it was “Never won by a man.”  This despite the fact that that LITERALLY the first time this challenge aired it was won by a man.  Jason won this one, not Aubry.  

Now, Probst has done 45 of these by now, and Kaoh Rong was… Good Lord, it was seven years ago.  Point being, it could just be a case of it blending together.  However, I find funnier to think that Probst is not just content with acting like Aubry won the season.  No, now she has to win challenges she didn’t actually win as well!  Even as the head of the “Aubry Lobby”, I think that’s a bit much.  

Anyway, Bruce ekes out a win again, thus squashing the plans of flushing the idol.  While most strategizing has to wait until after our “journey”, both of our threesomes who definitely still have their votes discuss their options.  Dee, Drew and Jake discuss being willing to take out Kendra, Dee leading the charge due to the aforementioned saying of her name.  Julie, Kendra, and Bruce, meanwhile, initially discuss Dee, and kudos to Julie for her acting here.  She plays it off like she’s the bottom of her alliance reluctantly going along anyway, when in reality she’s in pretty tight with her alliance, particularly Dee.  She does, however, shift the talk to voting out Jake, which Bruce of all people is extremely on board with.  Hilariously, both sides think they’ll definitely be able to sway things their way, which will make for a good bit of humor later on.  

Anyway, on to our “Journey”.  It’s honestly kind of lackluster.  Each individual is given a number puzzle to figure out under a time limit.  Do so and regain your vote, fail and it’s really gone.  Straightforward, and I like that it’s a different type of puzzle than we usually see, though I feel like it’d be more fun to me to actually DO than to WATCH.  

Then again, math is kind of intuitive for me, and I’m well-fed and hydrated, so I’d probably have an easier time.  Most of these players struggle a lot.  Katurah just has no clue, though Austin continues to show his hidden depths by just barely beating the buzzer.  It’s actuary Emily, however, who notes how embarrassing it is to fail.  She enters a guess at the last second which naturally ends up being wrong.  She notes how it reflects on her profession, but also notes that she’s not a mental math person.  Let this be a lesson, kids: Don’t JUST rely on technology for your math!  Now, get this woman a spreadsheet, STAT!

Back at camp, everyone says that they lost their vote publicly, with Austin not wanting old Belo to know that old Reba has a clear voting majority.  He does tell Drew, Dee, and Julie however, so another negative in Emily’s corner.  The debate is quickly susses out, as noted before, to be between Jake and Kendra.  Jake for not having a Shot in the Dark plus voting Julie, and Kendra for being erratic/harder to work with, and trying to get votes on Dee.  Seeing what old Belo say, it’s clear as well that old Reba has won the war.  No mention of them working together; they just decide to flee the proverbial burning ship.  Self-fulfilling prophecy there, guys.  

Most of old Reba seem to favor getting out Kendra, with only Julie and Emily disagreeing.  To be fair, I can see the logic for both.  Like I said, Jake voted for Julie, so I can understand her vendetta.  As for Emily?  Well, despite Kendra’s vow of vengeance after Brando’s exit, she and Emily have not been shown to really be against each other, whereas Jake and Emily have basically no relationship.  As such, given that Drew and Austin clearly indicated not wanting to turn on Dee, I could see Emily wanting as many numbers to work with for her as possible.  That said, much as I like those two and understand their position, I do think Kendra is the better move.  Jake is very passive in this game, and from what we’ve seen, is a goat at Final Tribal Council at this point.  Unless Kaleb is VERY bitter at the other two finalists, or Bruce is on the jury and is salty, I don’t see Jake getting any votes.  Kendra, for all her quirks, is still likable, and also trying to strategize.  Not something you want to keep around as the majority.  

The best that can be said for Emily here is that Drew does seem to seriously consider her perspective, and could use Kendra and Bruce’s votes, along with his and Julie’s.  Dee, however, is adamant that Kendra should go, saying that anyone who brings up her name is dead.  Winner quote?  Only time will tell.  

That last Tribal Council would be a tough act to follow, and this one really can’t.  It’s mostly standard talk, though with a few funny moments here and there.  Bruce’s comparison of immunity to a double-edged sword, due to keeping you safe but also increasing your threat level, would have just been your standard sort of line, but Probst decides to throw out some schmuck bait, offering Bruce to relieve himself of the downside by giving up immunity.  Bruce, not being an idiot, shames Probst for “blaspheming”.  Gotta love some of these Bruce quotes.  Kendra talks about getting “meat sweats” from eating the reward rotisserie chicken, her first time eating chicken in 15 years.  Definitely memorable, but more in a “Get the Brain Bleach” way.  And, of course, Dee brings up Pokemon evolution as a metaphor for the game.  Not sure if she’s a fan, or just absorbing what Emily and Drew have likely talked about, but it’s fun to see regardless, and did give me a title for this blog.  

In the end, the sensible choice is made, and Kendra goes out nearly unanimously.  I’m not that sorry to see her go.  She wasn’t a bad character, but Jake’s Boston Accent and utter impotence in the game is just funnier.  Plus, it looked like Kendra wasn’t going to be able to get anything going in the game at this point, so might as well let her exit with dignity.  

This episode honestly had a great start.  Then production got involved.  We had great potential in the plot line of Emily finally working to improve her position, and people getting suspicious of how close Austin and Dee are, but it all got derailed because we had to focus on the twist.  A twist, I might add, that FAILED in taking power away from the majority, leading to a predictable boot anyway!  Once again, production is their own worst enemy, putting in a twist where one was not needed.  Let the players play!  Hopefully next episode, we can actually live up to the potential of an insurrection…

-Matt

Title credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Cast Assessment.

Well, CBS certainly took their sweet time this year, and also certainly continue to be stingy with the info they give us.  Nevertheless, the cast is officially here, so it is time for me to go over each of them, and how I think they’ll do this season.  Yes, welcome back once again to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  

Before we get into the cast, one quick bit of business: Amongst the information that CBS refuses to give us is the tribe divisions. That said, as tribe division does have a major impact on one’s chances (but tell me again how luck plays no part on this show), I’ve found a reported leak of tribe divisions, and will be going based off of that.  I normally wouldn’t do so, but I’ve come to respect how important knowing said division is, and this leak does line up with what we saw in the preview, so I’ll act as though it is legit.  If, for some reason, it is inaccurate, my apologies.  That said, let’s dig into this new cast, starting with…

Austin Li Coon (26, Grad Student, Chicago, IL, Reba Tribe): When I first read Austin’s initial profile, I worried that he didn’t know much about the game.  He initially listed Owen Knight (“Survivor 43”) as the guy he’s most like, which made me a bit concerned.  After all, Owen would have been on his tv VERY recently when Austin was going out to film, so perhaps it was just recency bias.  But then he went on to list Wendell Holland (“Survivor Ghost Island”) and Jay Starrett (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) as well, so I’ll give him the benefit of a doubt here.  That said, I do feel Austin missed his true closest “Survivor” companion: Woo of “Survivor Cagayan”.  And no, I’m not just saying that because the two look like they could be cousins.  Dude projects a very laid-back, surfer-bro attitude.  Someone who’s there more for the experience than to play the game super-strategically.  I mean, the dude literally put Naruto, the anime/manga ninja not known for his decision-making prowess, as his hero.  Put cruelly, Austin’s an idiot.  That said, he seems like a pretty likable, easygoing guy (he certainly has one of the most relatable pet peeves to date.  Banana-flavored candy is an insult to both bananas and candy), so he’s probably a useful idiot.  Expect him to be a number in an alliance just happy to go along for the ride, eliminated mid-to-late merge as a challenge threat.  He’ll be a bright spot on our screens until then, but not necessarily the smartest.  

Dee Valaderes (26, Entrepreneur, Miami, FL, Reba Tribe): So not only are we repeating tribe divisions and colors from “Survivor 43”, but we’re repeating contestants, too?  With Bruce from “Survivor 44″ coming back, I had to double-check that this wasn’t Justine Brennan of “Survivor 43”, aka “The Salesperson Cody Insisted Had To Go”.  But no, Dee is just a woman who gives off similar energy to her, and thus will probably meet the same fate.  Look, don’t get me wrong, there’s not a lot on paper that goes against Dee.  Most of her answers are inoffensive, and while I could nitpick things like her wanting to emulate players who made “BIG MOVEZ”, sometimes to their own detriment, that’s getting really nitpicky.  No, my call here is 100% vibes.  Some people just exude that “sales” energy, and while Dee technically isn’t a salesperson, she’s doubtless had to use similar skills in her career.  To her credit, Justine’s vibes in that particular area were low; she just got caught out by someone who was also a salesperson.  But only the blind could miss what Dee exudes here, and I bet most people are going to consider her a threat.  Luckily for Dee, I don’t see her tribe going to Tribal Council much, and there is one person on her tribe we’ll be getting to who’s a more obvious early target.  However, I still say Dee is out at the later pre-merge, maybe early merge if she’s lucky, just because her vibes are too obvious.  

Brandon Donlon (26, Content Producer, Sicklerville, NJ, Lolo Tribe): Doubtless those of you who saw the preview remember Brandon.  He’s the “My grandfather robbed a bank.” guy.  Unfortunately for him, in his bio he stated that getting a root canal was preferable to playing Settlers of Catan, and for this sin, he shall be the first boot.  

I kid, I kid.  Despite my newfound dislike of the guy for dissing one of my favorite board games, I actually like his odds decently well.  Dude knows the game well, and seems to have a good understanding of himself, with apt past player comparisons to the likes of Jonathan Penner (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Mike White (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  Add onto that a solid challenge-helping package on a tribe that’s going to have some easy early targets, and I don’t see a way Brandon doesn’t make the merge.  That said, he does give off that obvious “schemer” look in the way he carries himself and talks, but does have a charm about him.  Thus, I’m putting him as a late-merge boot, probably the penultimate episode, when his schemes finally catch up with him.  Think a similar fate to Omar on “Survivor 42”.  Good, certainly, but not good enough to lower his threat level and pull it all the way.  Look for him to be a top contender for a returnee season, though.  Dude does give a good confessional.  

Emily Flippen (28, Investment Analyst, Laurel, MD, Lolo Tribe): No, that is not a typo.  There are, in fact, people on this season who are not exactly 26 years old.  Emily is probably my personal favorite of the season, purely on the comparison to Kass McQuillen (“Survivor Cagayan”) alone.  Kass remains one of my all-time favorite characters, and somewhat underrated as a strategist (yes, her social graces could leave much to be desired, but I could see where she was coming from, and she had a good BS detector.  Plus, her return on “Survivor Cambodia” did show us that she could work in that area as well), so I’m pleased to see she takes the comparison as a compliment.  That said, by numbers alone, probably not the comparison you want to be making, Emily.  Add onto that the admission that you’ll be making mistakes, and the first concerning pet peeve of the new cast (her pet peeve is basically “everything”), and while we’ll enjoy Emily as a character, I doubt she’ll stick around for too long for us to enjoy.  Again, there’s an earlier target on this tribe we haven’t met yet, so unless she costs her tribe a challenge, or they collapse into the disaster tribe of the season, she probably makes the “Earn the Merge” portion.  There, however, her personality will probably be too big to ignore, and she’ll be an easy consensus boot, especially if her tribe is large, and therefore easy to target.  She could be out earlier in the event she costs her tribe a challenge (she does admit she’s not the best athletically), but for now, this is unfortunately where I’m sticking with her placement.  Also, as an aside, can you believe it took US “Survivor” this long to cast an “Emily”?

Brandon “Brando” Meyer (23, Software Developer, Seattle, WA, Belo Tribe): Oh Brando.  I hate to repeat myself from the bio I gave Zach Wurtenberger (“Survivor 42”), but I wish you were on a different season or on a different tribe.  Dude is open, smart, friendly, surprisingly athletic, all qualities that should work in his favor.  Unfortunately for him, I predict there will be a disaster tribe this season, and he’s on it.  He does appear to be the brains of his tribe, so expect most challenge wins to come from puzzles completed by him.  But he can only take his tribe so far, and as they keep losing, places to hide become fewer and fewer.  Put another way, I think he’s smart enough to get in an alliance, but I don’t see him as the driving force.  All right for a few votes, but eventually, the alliance will be forced to eat each other pre-merge, and as such, the lieutenant position he would find himself in would be most vulnerable.  A late pre-merge boot, but a pre-merge boot nonetheless, and I am sorry for him for his unfortunate tribe placement.  With just a few better challenge competitors to start with, dude could run deep.  

Hannah Rose (33, Therapist, Baltimore, MD, Lolo Tribe): Before we get into discussing Hannah, I do have to call out “Entertainment Weekly”, here.  No one calls it “Baltimore City, Maryland”.  It’s just “Baltimore”.  “Balmer” if you want to do it in the Maryland accent.  Drop the “city”, it’s already implied.  

Anyway, onto Hannah yourself, she can basically be described, relating to “Survivor 44”, as “Carolyn-lite”.  Tattoed blonde therapist?  Check.  Manic energy?  Check.  Looking for authenticity?  Check.  Now, with how Carolyn did, you might think this would bode well for her.  But backing all this up, Carolyn at least had experience with online reality games to back up her claims of being able to read the room.  Hannah makes these same claims, but with nothing to back them up, and her REALLY feeling like a rehash of a character we’ve seen, if she loses a challenge, I see her going out.  Not to mention therapists who aren’t Denise Stapely (“Survivor Philippines”) tend not to do well in the game for some reason.  Add onto that another concerning set of pet peeves (loud chewers and narcissists), and I peg Hannah as a pre-merge boot.  Ironically, despite a memorable personality, she’ll be forgettable just because Carolyn was on so recently, and will kind of dominate the character space for a bit.  It’s a shame, too.  First player from Baltimore, my hometown, and the only one of this cast to admit a love for Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  I kind of like her a lot.  But unless her tribe outright NEVER loses (which I doubt), she’s out pre-merge.  

Bruce Perreault (47, Insurance Agent, Warwick, RI, BeloTribe): Here he is, Bruce from “Survivor 44”.  Probably the most heavily anticipated contestant of the season.  I’m glad he gets a chance to actually play the game this time, though I do question a bit the wisdom of having him be the ONLY returnee.  On the one hand, it wouldn’t be fair to have him pull a Caleb Reynolds on “Survivor Game Changers”, and be brought back with a bunch of other players, only to be thoroughly outclassed and have no real shot.  On the other hand, having him be the only returnee makes him stand out, and standing out early on is an easy way to get a target.  That said, this is the era of “Touchy, Feely Survivor”, where everyone wants to be nice, and given Bruce’s obvious overall experience, I doubt being a returnee will affect his placement too much.  

No, Bruce will be out early for OTHER reasons.  Partly it’s the “disaster tribe” theory I spoke of earlier, but it’s also an age thing.  I feel like I say this every season nowadays, but this season skews YOUNG.  I believe I read that the average age on this cast is 29.  Not a bunch of fresh-faced babes, but definitely outside Bruce’s target range, and when you consider that Bruce is one of only two people in his 40’s (and the only one in his 40’s on this tribe), there’s just going to be a connection issue.  Bruce’s story, and his willingness to go all-out in challenges, mean he probably isn’t the very first boot, but unless his tribe can win a lot, I just don’t see him connecting with this group, and he’s out somewhere in the early-to-mid pre-merge.  Sorry, man.  At least you’ll get to see Tribal Council this time.  

Janani “J. Maya” Krishnan-Jha (24, Singer, Los Angeles, CA, Reba Tribe): Hoo boy, it’s tough when they don’t specify whether someone is going by their given name or their stage name.  Since they made a point to mention it, I’ll stick with J. Maya for now, but I reserve the right to change it if that’s not how her chyron refers to her later on.  J. Maya certainly wins the award for the wordiest bio of the bunch, though weirdly it doesn’t feel like she says much of substance in it.  Sort of a commentary on influencer/internet sensation culture in general when you think about it.  Not to say that I dislike her; she definitely has her good moments.  One of the nice nuggets I got out of her bio was her respect for her mountaineering grandmother.  Not sure how much it’ll help her in the game of “Survivor”, but it’s nice to see, and a cool shout-out.  I know from expanded media that she also won a competition centered around making puns, which again, not really relevant to the game, but awesome nonetheless.  Apart from possible wordiness, there’s not really anything in her bio that goes against J. Maya, so I’ll give her a fairly average rating.  Barring her turning out to be a major challenge sink, expect her to be around until the merge at least, probably going out in the mid-to-late merge by trying to make a big move and getting called out for playing too hard, too fast.  If she makes puns throughout the game, however, I at least will enjoy the time she’s there.  

Drew Basile (23, Grad Student, Philadelphia, PA, Reba Tribe): Say what you will about Drew, but he knows himself very well.  Dude screams “nerd” with every orifice of his being, and owns it, openly comparing himself to the likes of Cochran (“Survivor South Pacific”) and Ryan Ulrich (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”).  The latter I would say is a fairly deep cut for “Survivor” lore (not to say that the season itself is forgotten, but conversation seems to center around Ben and Chrissy), so clearly this guy knows his stuff.  It’s most unfortunate for him that he’s coming hot on the heels of Carson Garrett (“Survivor 44”).  Now, I doubt that our other players this season have seen ALL of that season, so they may not have seen Carson’s talent with puzzles play out.  But they definitely saw some of that season (Carolyn gets referenced in at least one bio), and Carson’s 3-D printing shenanigans were referenced in the first episode.  Top that off with him wanting to play fast from the get-go per the season preview, and you’ve got a receipt for a super-fan ready to play their way right out of the game.  Drew is lucky he’s not on the disaster tribe, or he’d be out super early.  As it stands, I mark him an early-to-mid merge boot for overplaying his hand.  Again, probably a fun watch, but a flameout in the game almost certainly.  

Julie Alley (49, Estate Attorney, Brentwood, TN, Reba Tribe): I hope you like “Survivor Cambodia”, or at least the phrase “Second Chance”, because Julie will be saying it nonstop for the entirety of her screen time.  From said season being referenced repeatedly by her, to her talking about how she took a second chance in life by changing careers at a (relatively) older age, you can bet this is going to come up a lot.  Thankfully it won’t get old, but unfortunately for Julie, that’s because I have her pegged as the first boot.  There’s just too many factors working against her for me to say otherwise.  The oldest woman on a tribe is always going to have an uphill battle, especially in this day and age where tribe swaps are a rarity, and so challenge strength becomes more paramount as a factor.  This season will be particularly pronounced, since as mentioned, average age is 29.  The only person even really close to her age is Bruce, who’s on another tribe.  Almost makes you think she was put on so Bruce wasn’t the oldest player this season.  Sprinkle on the “Second Chance” rhetoric that I can see getting old real fast, and unless she’s not nearly as much of a challenge sink as she appears, or can form bonds better than she’s indicated with her bio, she’s toast.  I’m happy she’s successful in real life, but I don’t see that translating to “Survivor”.  

Jake O’Kane (26, Attorney, Boston, MA, Belo Tribe): Say what you will about this cast, but for the most part, there’s been some meaty stuff to talk about with them.  No truly generic characters in the bunch.  Jake is the exception to that.  Surprising, given that he had one of the more memorable lines from the season preview (about moving out of his grandma’s house if he wins), and maybe he works better on tv.  But man, his bio just went in one eye and out the other, leaving basically no impact.  He’s fine.  What he says is fine.  Pretty boilerplate stuff about his skills.  Inoffensive, but not leaving an impact.  Weirdly, BECAUSE he’s so inoffensive, and seems like he’ll do ok in challenges, I expect Jake to actually survive a good while despite being on the disaster tribe.  The strength of being kind of generic is that you can chameleon your way in with most groups.  If Jake has even the barest game smarts, and doesn’t sink the tribe in challenges, he should do fine.  I won’t put him as a winner pick proper, since I worry he lacks the killer instinct he needs to strike when the time is right, but he’s definitely in my unofficial “dark horse” slot for the season.  I see him making the finale, the everyone says “Oh, right, he’s still here and a threat”, and gets booted.  Decent placement, but could be better.  

Katurah Topps (35, Civil Rights Attorney, Brooklyn, NY, Belo Tribe): The other person I expect to survive the disaster tribe, Katurah edges out Jake to be one of my two proper winner picks for the season.  This is odd because there are a couple of red flags in her bio.  Her pet peeves are “slow walkers, slow talkers, and people who ooze privilege”, all traits she has at least a decent chance of encountering on the show.  She also talks about moving from a deprived upbringing to become the successful attorney she is today.  beautiful to read about, but I can see coming across as self-righteous or as a major jury threat.  Worth mentioning as well that she’s technically on the “older” end of the spectrum age-wise, but that’s more a mark of this season being young-skewed that her being “older”, and she seems to have the physical fitness to help counteract any negative age perceptions.  All that said, her experience in multiple worlds I think will give her an edge.  If she’s grown up in poverty, she likely knows life on the streets and how to navigate that.  But she can also move in the privileged attorney circle with at least some comfort.  Put those skills to use on a tribe in desperate need of command, and you’ve got a recipe for someone surviving the decimation of their own tribe.  Come the merge, she’s then in the enviable swing vote position, and based on her qualifications, she’s shrewd enough to ride that out all the way to the end.  Add in some good oration at Final Tribal, and you might as well just write her the check.  

Kaleb Gebrewold (29, Software Sales, Vancouver, BC, Lolo Tribe): Our Canadian representative for the season, and the first from British Columbia!  Dude just seems like a nice guy all around, and I did get a kick out of him using “golden retriever” as an adjective to describe himself.  Though I do then have to deduct points for him not technically naming a “Survivor” he is most like.  He starts out comparing himself to Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”), then wisely retracts that as too high a bar to clear, but never gives an alternative name.  I still like the guy, though, but likability alone is not enough to win the game.  Even Ethan Zohn (“Survivor Africa”) had his cutthroat moments.  On top of that, Kaleb has the Canadian problem, not to mention the salesperson problem again.  Yes, I know Kane didn’t win on “Survivor 44”, but I don’t know if THESE players know that, and Maryanne and Erika are still going to be fresh in people’s minds.  Kaleb’s doing the best he can to present himself as a chill-non threat, and luckily for him he’s on a tribe I see rarely going to Tribal Council.  But such goodwill cannot last forever.  Expect Kaleb to be a consensus boot in the early-to-mid merge area, just for being too nice.  

Kellie Nalbandian (30, Critical Care Nurse, New York City, NY, Belo Tribe): Welp, add another one to the “Unorthodox Spelling of the Name ‘Kelly’” Pile!  Long-time readers may recall that I once had a hypothesis that contestants with the name “Kelly” (one of, if not the, most common name on US “Survivor”) could be successful if, and only if, their name was not spelled the traditional “Kelly” (Wiglesworth of “Survivor Borneo” being the exception, and I think that one only applied retroactively when she started being called by said last name).  As such, it would seem like Kellie would have a good shot at the game.  I would agree… If she were on a different tribe.  Unfortunately, Kellie is on what I predict to be the disaster tribe of the season, and that’s going to cost her.  She’s not a challenge sink, but she’s not exactly a challenge strength either, so there’s not much incentive to keep her around based on that.  She’s definitely tough enough for the game (if she can survive being a nurse during the height of COVID-19, I’m not going to question her toughness), but unless her tribe wins more than I expect, she just won’t have the chance.  Granted, she also has some concerning things in her bio.  Notably, her pet peeves are “inefficiency” and “know-it-alls”, both of which are concerning (and in regards to the latter, how’s she going to do RHAP exit interviews if she hates “know-it-alls”?).  Still, the poor tribe luck is the biggest factor in her downfall.  She’s not first out, even on her tribe, but eventually her number will just be up. I will say that if she CAN make the merge, she probably makes a deep run, but this time, I just don’t see the numbers working out for her.  

Nicholas “Sifu” Alsup (30, Gym Owner, O’Fallon, IL, Reba Tribe): Ok, I have to take umbrage with this nickname.  “Sifu”, as people probably know from either “Avatar: The Last Airbender” or “Kung Fu Panda”, is not a name, but a TITLE, basically meaning “master”.  Not really a proper name.  I’ll still refer to him as that, since that’s what he wants to be called, but know that I know your “name’s” origin, dude.  My weird little annoyance aside, Sifu is in a pretty good spot.  Likely the physical anchor of his tribe, he seems pretty level-headed and inoffensive.  Dude’s used to working with people in his gym, so probably some good interpersonal skills without being domineering.  Expect him to take a lead role in challenges, but be a bit more of a co-leader at camp.  While he does have the most concerning pet peeves outside of Emily’s with “liars and mean people”, his overall challenge strength probably keeps him safe until the merge.  If he can kind of fade into the background at that point, which I suspect he can based on how he describes his work, expect him to be a late-merge boot, once the other physical threats are gone.  Also, he likes “Dragon Ball Z”, and while that’s not the same as “Naruto”, it seems like he and Austin are cut from similar cloth that way, so I expect them to get along swimmingly.  

Kendra McQuarrie (31, Bartender, Steamboat Springs, CO, Belo Tribe): Rounding out our disaster tribe is the person I’d say is most likely to go once they lose a challenge.  On a tribe of overall pretty, for want of a better word, “normal” people, Kendra stands out as “the crazy one”.  She openly compares herself to Carolyn, and some might say that bodes well, but I maintain that Carolyn was an exception, rather than a rule.  Most of the time, playing that openly and out there and off-the-wall is only going to stick your neck out for elimination.  I’d also peg Kendra as the most likely to cost the tribe a challenge, based on overall physicality, another mark against her.  Add onto this she’s another one super-excited by the adventure.  Not a problem in and of itself, but again, the extra enthusiasm makes her stick out to dangerous levels.  Also, did you know she completed the “Camino de Santiago”?  Because she did!  And she mentions it!  Repeatedly!  It’s the same problem as Julie and “Second Chances”, though admittedly on a somewhat smaller scale.  Bigger tribes, or a tribe that avoids Tribal Council, might give Kendra just enough wiggle room to make the merge, but I don’t think she has either.  Thus, for standing out too much, Kendra is probably a pre-merge boot.  

Sean Edwards (35, School Principal, Provo-Orem, UT, Lolo Tribe): As the last man on the cast we have yet to talk about, you can expect that he’s my second winner pick of the season.  And again, a bit of a controversial one.  Fairly concerning pet peeve there with “arrogant people”.  Because “Survivor” has never produced one of those.  Also, while he isn’t “old”, he’s on the older end for THIS cast, as I’ve mentioned before.  That said, being a principal means both dealing with (usually quite stressed) adults, as well as people from a VERY different age demographic as yourself.  What I’m saying is that if anyone on this cast can bridge the age gap and be a uniter, Sean is the guy.  Dude exudes charm with that smile, and he’s one of the rare breed of people who admit he needs someone to cover his blind spots in an alliance.  An undervalued quality, and from this, I gather some good game smarts.  He’s not the most athletic, but again, not a sink, and so long as his tribe does fairly well in challenges (as I predict they well), I expect to see Sean in the finals.  

Sabiyah Broderick (28, Truck Driver, Jacksonville, NC, Lolo Tribe): To round out the cast as a whole, we have Sabiyah.  Are you happy now, internet complainers?  You got someone who didn’t get a college education on again!  Don’t get used to her though, as the fact that she’s about the ONLY person on the cast like this is a problem for her.  Say it with me now, “This makes her stand out, and that’s a bad thing.”  The fact that she seems like she’ll be good in challenges, and I don’t see her tribe spending much time at Tribal Council probably saves her during the pre-merge, but I expect her to be an early-to-mid merge boot, just for personality clashes.  She also doesn’t strike me as the type to let go the things that bother her, and when those things include “laziness”, again something very common on “Survivor”?  She’ll be fun to watch, but I don’t give Sabiyah a particularly long shelf-life.  

Oddly, that about does it.  Pretty solid cast overall, but not one that’s knocking my socks off.  I had stuff to say about pretty much everybody, which is encouraging, but again, maybe these people come off better on paper than they do on camera.  Or vice-versa, we’ll have to see.  And you can see, when we return with the blog following the premiere!  See you then!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 11: Island Cosplay Tutorial

We’ve all seen more and more nerdy things enter “Survivor”.  Statistical analyses.  3-D printed puzzles.  The mere existence of Christian Hubicki (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  Heck, this season alone with have Kane referencing D&D and “Star Wars” pretty much every other sentence.  Making clothes has also been a “thing” more frequently than you might think.  Sure we all remember Cody’s idol hat from “Survivor 43”, but let us not forget the trials and tribulations of Rupert’s skirt on “Survivor Pearl Islands:.  Yet somehow, despite all these factors, I never thought cosplay would enter into the show.  But here comes Carolyn, proving me wrong, providing an excellent tutorial on how to use random beach items to give yourself a headpiece and claws.  Bravo.  

Before we can delve into Carolyn’s “12 Secrets to Creating the Best Island Cosplay” tutorial, however, we have to have a brief announcement from our old friend…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Just a brief bit of irony that I forgot to touch on last time.  Frannie, while somewhat bummed at not being immune from the vote again, was still also excited to “Test her social game”, and see how it stacked up.  Trying to put a bright side on being vulnerable.  Admirable, but we now see how much her game was actually worth.  

Last episode, I mentioned that a downside to getting rid of Frannie is that you piss off Carolyn in doing so.  This week, we see precisely WHY this is a bad idea.  To say Carolyn does not take it well is an understatement.  Not good at hiding her emotions at the best of times, Carolyn makes it abundantly clear how hurt she is by the vote, particularly since her allies Carson and Yam Yam did not clue her in on it.  Yam Yam tries to get her to calm down, asking that she not do this in front of everyone, lest the Tika hand be revealed.  All true, but pretty rich coming from Yam Yam, the man who, admittedly to a slightly lower extreme, did the exact same thing when HE was blindsided in a vote from his allies.  Add another one to the “Irony” counter.  Trust me, it’s going to be going up a LOT this episode.  

After justifying his vote as him paying back Carolyn in kind for the Sarah vote earlier in the season, we see that Carolyn is not the only one with a chip on their shoulder for the past vote.  Danny received a mystery vote, and the suggestion that it may be Frannie does not placate him.  He is convinced someone threw a vote his way, and is bound and determined to ferret out who that might be.  To that end, he (admittedly in a pretty cordial way all things considered) questions everyone as to who threw a vote his way.  The once exception to this is Heidi who, as his ride-or-die, he is certain would never have voted for him.  Since the most ironic thing must happen in any given situation this episode, naturally Heidi was the stray vote for him.  She’s upset since she thought for sure he was going home (indicating Heidi may not have quite the strategic grasp on tribe dynamics that we thought), but also wisely decides to NEVER admit to Danny that she voted for him.  

Oddly, this is an exact parallel of the Lex van den Berghe and T-Bird Cooper situation from “Survivor Africa”, which is admittedly a fun storyline to go back to.  That said, man, I never thought I’d be talking about Lex so much when I started this blog.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s a decently fun character, but he’s not one of my all-time favorites, nor quite as significant to “Survivor” history as some others, so it’s surprising I keep finding reasons to bring him up.  

Morning brings calmer vibes, largely due to group meditation led by Jaime.  Everyone reflects on what they’ve gotten out here, leading Heidi to talk about her own past in flashback.  It’s a decent transition, but much as I hate to say it, Heidi doesn’t have much in the way of “tragic backstory”.  She does mention moving to the US from Puerto Rico, speaking no English, but apart from that, it’s pretty generic “I showed how tough I am in life.” sentiment.  Admirable, but not the most unique by a long shot.  

More notable from all this is that Carolyn has calmed down enough to make amends with Carson and Yam Yam.  Guess she really did just need some time after all.  Granted, she doesn’t have a ton of options, but still, good on her for burying the hatchet.  All that said, she still doesn’t trust them completely, as when asked directly, she denies having the Tika idol.  While she probably has more reason to trust these two than anyone else out there, but with how long you’ve kept it from them, best not to upset the apple cart.  Not unless there are very specific circumstances, which may or may not come up later this episode.  

The Tika Three, after kind of making a commitment to the Final Three together (they don’t say it out loud, but indicate they do want to stick together), debate how to make it through this round.  After all, this is the last round they’re outnumbered, assuming they stay tight together.  Yam Yam hits upon the idea of letting Danny know about Heidi’s vote for him, thereby breaking up the pair and creating a rift the tribe can exploit.  So Yam Yam does just that.  A good plan, assuming Danny believes him.  In the other trend of this season, that of “The Truth Not being Believed”, Danny doesn’t believe Yam Yam.  Admittedly, given how close Danny and Heidi have been thus far, I can understand it.  Far more plausible that Yam Yam is trying to break up that pair with lies, from Danny’s perspective.  Heidi lying her butt off only convinces him more, and gets him to realize “Hey, maybe we’ve been giving Tika too much power.”  You know, that thing Frannie said two episodes ago.  Oh well, better late than never I suppose.  

After the aforementioned cosplay tutorial, Carolyn has a bit in the water reenacting “The Little Mermaid” (her words, not mine), using that time to bond with Yam Yam as well.  They talk again about who they want in the finals, but really, nothing new comes of it.  The exception is Yam Yam giving us a fun little bit where he proposes three of his “multiple personalities” take up the spots.  Oh, Yam Yam.  You may not be strategically as good as you think, but damn if you aren’t hilarious!

Hilarious, but vulnerable.  Danny, in his newfound anti-Tika crusade, needs allies, and so goes to Lauren, being another regularly-targeted person to get on his side.  While Lauren admits in confessional that she doesn’t fully trust Danny, she recognizes that what he says makes sense.  The pair agree to go for Yam Yam for being too “nice”, and thereby difficult to beat in the end, which is logic I can’t fault.  I’d say Carolyn and Carson are even better targets (Carolyn to flush the idol, Carson because he’s good socially and also has puzzle skills for an immunity run), but hey, Yam Yam also makes sense, and the larger goal is just “Weaken Tika”, which this targeting does.  

Off to our immunity challenge, which, unsurprisingly, is “Last Gasp”, aka “The Drowning Simulator” first seen on “Survivor Palau”.  I say “Unsurprisingly” since the show now LOVES reusing major structures, and hey, if it was on last season, why not do so again?  Beats most of the repeat challenges, and at least there’s no puzzle, but I stand by this one not doing it for me as much as for others.  Once again, it’s largely down to me being very comfortable in the water, and thus not finding this quite as creepy.  That said, if there’s someone for whom the creep factor is very visceral, it’s Lauren.  Understandable, given that she’s been shown to not be the best in water challenges, and part of that is keeping your cool underwater.  She’s out relatively quickly.  Not as fast as Janu in the first iteration of this challenge, but pretty quick.  

Our two Puerto Ricans, Yam Yam and Heidi, end up duking it out.  Somewhat to my surprise, Yam Yam wins, leading to Danny comically jumping in the water to let him know when he can’t hear Probst.  Given the size of his face, I would have given Heidi the edge, just because she can stick her face through the bars further.  Still, good for him, and Yam Yam gets a nice moment to celebrate being athletic, a trait he evidently doesn’t share with his family at large.  It’s honestly a nice, effective scene.  I would have preferred we explore the discrimination against the overweight, and how that can affect people a bit more, but hey, the scene still works.  Plus, now we have drama with the main target immune.  

The Tika Three, correctly realizing that they were not successful in dividing Danny and Heidi, switch to a split between Jaime and Lauren.  However, everyone else is ALSO aware that this is the plan, with Danny saying that will be the decoy plan given to the Tika Three so they don’t get suspicious.  I WOULD get on Danny’s case for appearing to order it without consultation once again, but given that neither Jaime nor Lauren seem particularly mad when he says this, I’m going to assume this was a group decision he was just reiterating.  

Enough word of this gets back to Tika that they go to Jaime and Lauren offering to split between Danny and Heidi themselves.  This puts Jaime and Lauren as the swing votes, between Carson (the actual target of Danny with Yam Yam immune) and Danny.  For once, there is a clear “Right” and “Wrong” choice.  Carson is the correct person to vote out.  Don’t get me wrong, Danny will need to go at some point.  You don’t want him in the end with you, since he’s a likable guy who can say he made it despite a target on his back, and hasn’t made any real enemies (maybe Frannie, but even that’s a stretch).  But there are so many reasons to go for Carson instead.  I would list them all, but I don’t have to.  Jaime does it for me.  She says the Tika Three need to be broken up, and Carson is more of an immunity threat, given his prowess with puzzles, and the fact that he’s, you know, WON individual immunity, unlike Danny.  

Yes, take it in, folks.  Jaime said something that was 100% correct, with no caveats.  

Lauren does bring up trusting Carson more than Danny, which I can understand.  They’ve lived together longer, and actually voted together.  Even so, Jaime’s points are salient, and ultimately the better move, at least for this vote.  

Misdirection effectively neutered, we need something new.  Enter Carolyn and her idol.  Give the woman credit: She quickly recognizes that something is up, and sets about interrogating Danny.  Danny, in my view, actually does a pretty good acting job in denying it, but Carolyn smells trouble.  As such, wanting to keep Carson around (sensibly, since sticking with the Tika Three for now gives Carolyn a better spot in the game), she decides to play her idol on him.  NOW she tells Carson about her idol, and again, I can understand why.  By doing it now, she skips the “Oh, you kept something from me.” phase that would put her at risk, and have it be overridden by the “Thank you so much for saving me!” phase.  

Carolyn’s real dilemma, though, is who to vote for between Heidi and Danny.  Her fear is that if Danny plays an idol (and for all that I knocked her game earlier, it must be said that Heidi IS really good at keeping secrets, both with her idol and her vote against Danny), then the vote might bounce back against herself, and thus throwing a vote on Heidi might be smart, despite really preferring Danny.  Frankly, this should not be a dilemma.  Heidi should get Carolyn’s vote.  Either Jaime and Lauren are with you, in which case your throwaway vote won’t matter (save for possibly making Heidi angry, but at this point, a worthy safety risk), or they aren’t, in which case a safety vote is a wise decision.  Yet Carolyn is somehow conflicted as we head off to Tribal.  

Look, this has been a stellar episode.  Pretty standard in some ways, but we get a deep dive into the “Why” of each strategic move, and a good amount of time to just sit and let the players be people (something we’ll hopefully get more of now that 90-minute episodes will be the norm come next season).  All very good stuff, and all well-put together.  But the Tribal Council, while by no means the WORST, even by general standards, is just weak.  We are, blessedly, largely devoid of metaphors this time, but it’s mostly just generic strategic talk with little fun thrown in.  Admittedly there is one good moment wherein Carolyn gets rather aggravated after mishearing something that Lauren said, and then at Danny’s attempts to clarify the situation.  It doesn’t get inflamed, but DOES lead to her staring intensely at Probst, which freaks him out.  That’s always good for a chuckle.  

Carolyn agonizes in the voting booth, which, again, I don’t think she should be doing.  At first, it seems like she might have been agonizing over whether or not she needed to actually play her idol, since she waits until Probst gets to the “Okay” part of “Okay, I’ll read the votes” to do so.  Play it she does, though, and despite what the numbers will tell us momentarily, I don’t blame her.  That Carson was a likely target was a good read, and while this may show her hand a bit early as a strategic threat, given how long she kept her idol secret, it needed to be done, I feel.  Yes, she could have done a Maryanne (“Survivor 42”) and just revealed it at the end, but consider just HOW kooky Carolyn is perceived here.  The ONE reason there were any second thoughts on voting out Yam Yam or Carson was that Carolyn would be tough to deal with in the aftermath.  Not the look of a player well-respected strategically.  Unless you’re an orator at godly levels, you need to start changing that perception a bit earlier, and by the looks of the jury and the remaining players when Carolyn comes up to player her idol, she’s starting to do that.  It’s a risk, as again, she now seems a more appealing target than before, but one I think she needs to take to stand a chance at winning.  

So no, despite Carson not actually receiving a majority of the votes, I will not fault Carolyn this idol play.  I WILL, however, fault her for pulling an Aubry (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  Given my well-documented love for Aubry, you would think this would mean a good thing, and most of the time you’d be right.  Despite the fact that she remains my all-time favorite player, however, that does not mean I think she is flawless.  In particular, probably her biggest mistake was crossing out Julia very bluntly to write down Peter’s name instead right before the merge; a move so infamous most people avoid even the remotest possibility of doing so like the plague.  Those people are not Carolyn, however.  Admittedly, her idol play probably overshadows that particular reveal, so I don’t think the consequences will be as devastating for her as they ended up being for Aubry (and even Aubry’s I think were not played up enough in the moment given the outcome of the season, but that’s neither here nor there right now), but still, not the move of Aubry’s game to be copying, Carolyn.  

In the end, as mentioned, the idol play actually WASN’T needed mathematically, as Lauren and Jaime decided to vote for Heidi, meaning Danny would have gone home anyway (unless Carolyn had voted for Heidi, but if Carolyn had known they were voting that way anyway, she would have known not to play her idol, so I stand behind my logic for her not needing to agonize over this).  Danny TRIES to be memorable on his way out, giving some spiel to Probst about snuffing his torch.  Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t get it.  From what I’ve gathered asking around, he’s doing a Robert De Niro impression, but having never watched any of his films, I can’t say.  Doesn’t do it for me either way.  I’m mixed about Danny leaving.  He was definitely the bigger character of the targets tonight, but also not the most interesting strategically, and I can’t deny his character didn’t really “do it” for me.  All that said, it does leave Tika firmly in control, barring some break-up and/or idol shenanigans from Heidi, which is not that great.  

Possibly predictable season outcome aside, this was still a fantastic episode.  All the reasons I said earlier still apply: Good insight into strategy, good character moments, excellent humor.  The worst I could say is that the misdirection wasn’t the best (Carson got too little content for this to be his boot episode), and the Tribal Council was a bit dull.  The rest of the factors very much make up for that, though, and I hope this season can finish as strong as its buildup!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Cast Assessment

Dear readers, I would like to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  That said, I cannot do so in this case, due to the fact that the world is ending.  

Yes, hell hath frozen over, pigs are flying, the whole works.  We have hit the apocalypse, my friends.  How do I know this?  We had a cast release on a Tuesday.  You know, the day “Survivor” does not air on.  We have broken one of the immutable laws of the universe.  Matter can neither be created nor destroyed.  Force equals mass times acceleration.  “Survivor” casts drop on the same day of the week that episodes premier on.  And since I haven’t heard about the show switching to “Tuesdays”, this can only mean the world is coming to an end.  

Still, I suppose we might as well enjoy ourselves while we await our inevitable demise.  Let’s take a look at my thoughts on this new cast, starting with…

Claire Rafson (25, Tech Investor, Brooklyn, NY, Soka Tribe): Starting strong out of the gate, Claire is one of my two picks to win the whole thing.  Yes, seriously.  The woman is just too solid a competitor.  She compares herself to two solid winners in Michele Fitzgerald and Natalie Anderson (“Survivor Kaoh Rong” and “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, respectively), and makes a good note of what qualities she needs to utilize from both.  Specifically Michele’s social game and Natalie’s willingness to cut ties when necessary.  A blend a likability and cutthroatness can be lethal, game-wise, and all in a very unassuming package.  Admittedly Claire doesn’t seem like she’ll be the BEST in the outdoors or in challenges, but she doesn’t seem like she’ll be a sink in either area either, and given that her tribe seems like it’s the most well-rounded in challenges overall, I suspect she’s in it for the long haul.  If you REALLY want me to find weaknesses in her game, I would probably say her age and her pet peeves.  Claire is on the younger side for a winner, but as Maryanne taught us in “Survivor 42”, it’s by no means a deal-breaker, and I think this self-described “queer black Jewish woman” has those skills, helped by the fact that she’s clearly a longtime fan (something that, as I’ll discuss later, does not seem to be as universal amongst this cast as it has been in recent seasons).  Slightly more concerning is her pet peeve, which is people who are not self-aware, something that can describe many a previous contestant, and will doubtless apply to some this season.  Given her savvy, plus her tribe’s possible lack of early votes, I think Claire can ride this out for the long haul, and emerge as our eventually winner.  I know, I usually pick two winners, and still intend to do so this season.  But put a gun to my head, and force me to pick just one, I’m going with Claire.  Plus, the woman listens to young-adult novels on tape to go to sleep (specifically “The Hunger Games” in her case), and can I just say, I feel seen?

Matt Blankinship (27, Software Engineer, San Francisco, CA, Soka Tribe): This guy stole my first name, he stole my hairdo.  Man’s just a thief overall!  I kid, I kid.  Either way, though, I suspect this guy will be rewarded like a thief, and receive a harsh sentence.  That sentence, in this case, being an early exit.  Matt had better hope that his tribe truly IS the dominant one of the season, because I see him going at their first Tribal Council.  Given the makeup of the tribes, I doubt he’s the overall first boot, but when the opportunity arises, he’s toast.  There’s several of the “nerd” archetype this season, and while not the most egregious example of this, Matt is the most clearly visible.  Everyone nowadays knows this archetype is a threat, and coupled with a usual lack of skills in non-puzzle-based challenges (which, admittedly, are becoming as rare as hen’s teeth these days), they are an easy early target.  It takes a great deal of skill to overcome this obstacle, and while Matt is far from the worst person I’ve ever seen in terms of game sense, he’s no genius in that territory either.  The thing that clinches Matt’s poor chances for me is him talking about his failures in life.  It is refreshing to someone so open about their past mistakes, admittedly.  He chickened out for applying for the show the first time.  He failed to get a job.  He failed college.  It’s good, uplifting stuff that he kept on fighting in spite of this, but does not bode well for a winning game.  Matt is a pre-merge boot, but hey, maybe he can learn from this failure, and find success on a returnee season?  Stranger things have happened.  

Carolyn Wiger (35, Drug Counselor, Hugo, MN, Tika Tribe): Remember how I said people in psychology and psychology-related fields, unless they are Denise Stapely of “Survivor Philippines”, don’t do well on the show?  Yeah, don’t be looking for Carolyn to buck that trend.  Seems we’re getting all my extreme takes out of the way early, since Carolyn is my pick for first boot of the season.  While by no means “old”, she definitely fits the mold the show has for an “older woman”, one of the more vulnerable archetypes to be perceived as at the beginning of the season.  Carolyn also lists a lot of worldly things that she likes, makeup and potato chips and whatnot, that make me question how well she will do in the outdoors, only making her more vulnerable.  On top of that, when asked to compare herself to a previous player, Carolyn says she’s most like Noura of “Survivor Island of the Idols”.  About the best thing that this comparison says about Carolyn is that she has good self-knowledge.  Yeah, Noura ain’t exactly the comparison you want to make if you’re looking for success in this game.  Yes, Noura made it deep, but that was in part due to a large win streak from her tribe, giving other people time to rub the tribe the wrong way.  While I maintain that there will be no “disaster tribe” for this season, if there IS one on some off-chance, it will likely be Tika, putting Carolyn in an early vulnerable spot.  IF she somehow makes the merge, expect her to go deep as a goat, but unfortunately for her, I expect her to have a very short shelf-life this season.  Good on her for doing the real-life work she does, though.  Very necessary, but very difficult.  

Yamil “Yam Yam” Arocho (36, Salon Owner, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tika Tribe): One of two contestants currently living in a US territory at the time of casting this season, Yam Yam bookends the unintended theme this blog of “Get the extreme takes out early”.  Yes, Yam Yam is my second winner pick for this season.  You may remember Yam Yam from the preview we got at the end of “Survivor 43”.  He was the guy excited to poop in the ocean.  This may have you thinking “Well, the guy will be a fun character for sure, but winner equity?  Not seeing it.”  But as Maryanne proved on “Survivor 42”, being a good character and being a good strategist are not necessarily mutually exclusive.  In fact, Yam Yam’s personality could work to his advantage, as his strategizing won’t make him as visible a threat, thanks to his “wacky” exterior.  The man has admitted to surviving 90 days without electricity following a hurricane, so I’m going to say he’s got survival bona fides.  Yes, his challenge prowess might not be the best, but unless his tribe goes the route of Vesi last season, and cuts off their worst at challenges when they just can’t take it any more, Yam Yam is here for the long haul.  People will want to keep him around for his humor, and I’m confident he could use his charm to his advantage.  Man compares himself to Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”) for a reason, and he’s the only person I’ve yet seen to have NO pet peeves listed in his bio whatsoever (though that could just be a quirk of “Entertainment Weekly”, where I usually go to read them).  Honestly, the only concern I have with Yam Yam is that he DOES remind me so much of Maryanne.  She may have proved big characters can still be good at strategy, but her doing so means people will be on the watch for such a game.  Given that “Survivor 42” was the last season this cast saw, it will be VERY fresh in their minds, and that could put Yam Yam in trouble.  Otherwise, expect him to be around in the end.  Besides, he’s endorsed by Sandra Diaz-Twine (“Survivor Pearl Islands”), and who am I to disagree with The Queen?

Lauren Harpe (31, Elementary School Teacher, Mont Belvieu, TX, Ratu Tribe): After several novella’s worth of character bits to talk about, we finally have someone who we can go over without some big rant involved.  Lauren should do fairly well in this game, but aside from her hair, which is awesome, I don’t expect her to make any big waves in this game.  I think she should have some good skills interpersonally.  After all, managing a bunch of elementary school kids is one of the undersold toughest jobs in this day and age.  And mad respect to her for raising kids as a single mom, another undersold tough job.  Her pet peeve is a bit concerning, in people who don’t own up to their mistakes, but I’ve seen people with way worse peeves do well, so I won’t hold that much against her.  I don’t see Lauren being the major mover and shaker in an alliance, but she seems skilled enough to work her way into the core of a major alliance, and probably hang on until the early-to-mid merge or so, where she’ll be taken out as a safe boot.  Possibly she’s even one of the “split tribal” boots at the final 10, assuming they bring that back again.  Not knocking my socks off, but a solid player I predict will do decently well.  

Danny Massa (32, NYC Firefighter, Bronx, NY, Soka Tribe): While perhaps not quite to the same degree, Danny is very much the Jonathan Young (“Survivor 42”) of this cast.  Not so much in the sense that he will win challenges single-handedly, but in the sense that physically, he’s head and shoulders above the rest of the cast.  That said, I don’t see much strategic chops from him beyond surface-level stuff, and his pet peeves are the most concerning so far.  Bullies and whining are both decently common on this show, and I could see them getting under Danny’s skin.  On the flip side, however, this makes Danny a very good alliance member.  Skilled in team challenges, loyal, but not bright enough to strategize against you in any threatening way.  As with most challenge beasts, Danny will be a target as soon as the merge hits, and unless he gets an alliance as tight as Jonathan’s, will probably be out in the early-to-mid merge area.  

Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt (43, Engineering Manager, Pittsburgh, PA, Soka Tribe): For her own sake, Heidi had better hope her tribe IS a major force in the challenges, because if things shake out relatively even in terms of who goes to Tribal Council, she is an easy early target.  I love her enthusiasm, and we stan a board-game lover on this blog, but the fact simply is that Heidi is the oldest person on her tribe, and that person is almost always vulnerable early on.  Add onto that someone who self-describes as “loud”, a personality trait that gets very irritating very quickly when you can’t get away from it, and an enthusiasm for the game that, while admirable, frequently leads to playing too hard, too fast, and you’ve got yourself a recipe for a pre-merge boot.  Her pet peeve, “rude people”, doesn’t help matters any further.  Again, unless her tribe just completely bodies the immunity challenges, I don’t see Heidi having much of a shot moving forward.  About the only other thing worth mentioning is that she is one of a few people this season to mention Angelina Keeley (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) in their “who are you most like?” question, something that doesn’t really impact my thoughts on how they’ll do, but DOES point to an interesting trend that I’ll discuss more when we come to the final thoughts on the cast/season preview overall.  

Carson Garrett (20, NASA Engineering Student, Atlanta, GA, Tika Tribe): It’s revenge of the nerds!  Carson is the second (of three) overt “nerd” archetypes this season, and like with Matt before him, I think it helps spell his doom.  Man’s certainly got the studying down, though.  3-D printing puzzles to practice them beforehand.  Studying up on the statistics of the game.  Correctly identifying himself with Christian Hubicki (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  The man is doing his best to set himself up for success, and I do like the guy.  Man loves board games in general, and Settlers of Catan in particular.  Can’t fault him for that.  But the man has too many little things working against him.  I mentioned the “nerd” archetype being a threat, but the fact is that he’s just too young for me to consider him doing well.  I know I said Maryanne proved that age is less of a factor than we might have previously thought, but there is a limit to how low one can go, and I’m just not sure this guy has enough life experience to connect with people, and consequently do well in this game.  Finally, there’s his tribe.  I doubt Carson will be the FIRST target from his tribe, he needs to not go to Tribal Council too-often pre-merge, yet finds himself on probably the worst tribe for challenges.  Rough luck, my dude.  Another pre-merge boot in my opinion.  As an aside, the man DOES have probably the longest list of pet peeves, but most of them, apart from mosquitoes, are things he’s unlikely to encounter on the island, though I suppose production could put him on a tribe with negative vibes/moon-landing-deniers just to mess with him.  

Maddy Pomilla (28, Charity Projects Manager, Brooklyn, NY, Ratu Tribe): Not content to have Elie Scott (“Survivor 43”) on just once, production let her change her name, occupation, and location, then brought her back immediately.  Apart from physical resemblance, Maddy and Elie exude the same energy.  Decently game-savvy, but still overestimating themselves, and energetic to the point of annoyance.  Maddy will be a strategist, but an overly-visible one, and therefore an easy target.  Given the large merge sizes of recent seasons, expect Maddy to be our merge boot, or perhaps our “Mergeatory” boot, if that’s really what we’re calling it now.  Too visible not to take out at an opportunity when an easy consensus boot is needed.  She will burn brightly, but burn (relatively) fast.  

Bruce Perreault (46, Insurance Agent, Warwick, RI, Tika Tribe): Our oldest contestant (though admittedly only by a few years) on this season, I would not blame you for not expecting Bruce to be that old at first glance.  True, the man does not look like a spring chicken, but you could easily shave 10 years off his age, and I’d believe it.  This implies he’s relatively fit, ergo not a challenge sink, ergo less likely to be targeted for that reason.  That said, there ARE reasons to be concerned about his game, at least in my opinion.  While the man is in insurance, thereby effectively a salesman and presumably social, the man gives the shortest answers by far in his bio.  A welcome break in reading, to be sure, but does not imply, to me at least, good sociability.  Think of him like Rocksroy (“Survivor 42”): Not unlikeable, but very set in his ways and not going to sugarcoat stuff.  He’s one of two players who very much give off “dad vibes” this season.  Useful on a tribe that’s likely to be fairly chaotic early, but could also isolate him.  I think Bruce needs to hope for a very even split of Tribal Council attendance in the pre-merge, since there are people I’ve discussed on his tribe who would likely be targets before him.  If they ARE closer to the disaster tribe, his perceived lack of sociability will likely catch up to him, and Bruce will be out likely in the pre-merge, though probably the late pre-merge, if I had to guess.  

Sarah Wade (27, Management Consultant, Chicago, IL, Tika Tribe): If someone can ride out the chaos that is this tribe, my money’s on Sarah.  Apart from her career implying she knows how to handle disparate personalities, the woman is a long-time fan, and so knows the game quite well, while appearing unassuming, another deadly combination in this game.  Not enough stands out about her for me to really go so far as to say she’ll win, but she was definitely one I considered for the title, and will probably make it far regardless.  Mid-to-late merge I’d say.  Her pet peeves are relatively unassuming (loud chewing, rule followers, close minded/inflexible people), though she could run into some in the game, another slight mark against her.  Also, she references multiple times how the passing of a close friend inspires her in life.  A tragedy for her, and my heart goes out to her for her loss, but expect her to be the one we get MULTIPLE flashbacks to.  No way the show isn’t milking that for all it’s worth.  

Matthew Grinstead-Mayle (43, Barbershop Owner, Columbus, OH, Ratu Tribe):  Hoo boy.  Let’s tally the list, shall we?  This guy shares my first name.  He lives in the same metropolitan area as me.  We bear some superficial similarities, being large, hirsute, barrel-chested guys with bushy beards.  This guy is my favorite of the season in part because I’m basically OBLIGATED to root for him at this point.  So, do I think he’ll win?  Eh… I think he’ll make the merge, at least.  The dude gives off SERIOUS dad vibes, even more so than Bruce whom we just discussed.  Not a bad thing, but it makes me question how good he’ll be at the game once things really get cutthroat.  On top of that, dude has a LOT of pet peeves.  Admittedly, most of these are food-related, and unlikely to come up, but the two that AREN’T, specifically people who talk in circles and people who dominate the conversation (or presumably both), are something he’ll have to watch out for.  While I appreciate him comparing himself to Elaine Stott (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), an underappreciated player, his further comparisons to Shan Smith (“Survivor 41”) and especially Ben Driebergen (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) are concerning.  Admittedly his take on the former is that she was the social center, but should he bring in her cockiness, he might be in trouble.  As for Ben?  Well, a nice enough guy, but good strategist he ain’t.  I don’t see Matthew going SUPER early, but expect him out no later than the mid-merge, when the game just gets too cutthroat for him to keep up.  Of course, this is assuming he’s not one of the medevacs we saw in the season preview, since it seems like it was likely him falling off the rock in the preview.  He has the closest build, and does have the right buff color, assuming no swap.  Then again, these previews also made us think Tori Meehan was getting an idol on “Survivor 42”, so I’m not going to go so far as to say he IS for certain a medevac.  

Helen Li (29, Product Manager, San Francisco, CA, Tika Tribe): Rounding out this tribe is the OTHER person I have confidence can ride this thing out, regardless of if the tribe ends up being a disaster.  Helen’s another bona fide fan, making good references from recent seasons (comparing herself to Erika Casupanan of “Survivor 41”), all the way back to season 2 with Tina Wesson.  Preparing for the future while learning from the past.  I like this woman.  Her unassuming pet peeves help as well, as a lack of toilet paper and cars on the island mean two out of her three are non-factors.  Disrespectful people might be an issue, and that plus a potential lack of challenge prowess keep Helen from the winner’s spot for me.  Still, all else being equal, she should have the good game sense to weather early storms, and make the mid-to-late merge period.  I’d even have her as a dark horse to win, if it comes to that.  

Josh Wilder (34, Surgical Podiatrist, Atlanta, GA, Soka Tribe): Josh seems nice.  Yeah.  That’s really all that needs to be said.  Dude is decently athletic, seems likable enough.  Should do well.  I don’t think he really has the killer instinct needed to be truly great, but unless he makes some major social gaffe none of us see coming, he should be safe.  No reason to vote him out early, and not enough of a strategic threat to be an immediate target come the merge.  Man is one of the better challenge competitors on paper this season, so expect his threat to rise in the mid-to-late merge, and see him go there.  Be aware, as well, that he’s another contestant who regrettably had tragic medical hardships at a (relatively, in some cases) young age.  Something called “Prune Belly Syndrome” at birth, necessitating a kidney transplant, and stomach cancer at age 25, necessitating the removal (and presumably transplant) of his stomach.  Dude’s been through a lot, and expect to hear it in multiple flashbacks.  In truth, I expect Josh’s biggest risk early game to be the fact that, due to the aforementioned transplants, he’s on immunosuppressants, and so I could see him getting some tropical disease that makes him one of the medevacs of the season, though I would hope that production, if they thought he was at that much greater a risk than others, would not have let him play the season in the first place.  

Jaime Lynn Ruiz (35, Yogi, Mesa, AZ, Ratu Tribe): Jaime wins the award for “Most Unusual Occupation” this season!  Good thing, too, as she’s not winning many other awards.  Similar to Carolyn, whom we discussed earlier, Jamie is not “old” by an objective measure, but fits the “older woman” archetype as far as this show is concerned, and that’s a problem.  She claims to be a day one fan, and perhaps she is, but comparisons only to recent seasons make me question that.  She’s another Angelina stan, and again, we’ll get into the significance of that later on.  She also has a lot of enthusiasm, as evidenced by a large number of all-caps words in her bio.  As a viewer, I appreciate it, but on the island, could be grating.  I will say she avoid any even mildly concerning pet peeves, but she’s likely the worst challenge performer on her tribe, so unless she has above and beyond social skills, I don’t see her lasting very long, unfortunately.  Chalk her up as another pre-merge boot.  

Kane Fritzler (25, Law Student, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, Ratu Tribe): Rounding out our nerd trio is Kane, and he is an exception to my thoughts on these types this season.  That is to say, Kane will be voted out for reasons OTHER than his nerddom.  Don’t misunderstand, Kane has a few read flags.  Likely not the best in non-puzzle challenges.  Describes himself as “loud” which I’ve already expressed as a concern for others.  Admittedly not any concerning pet peeves, but this is little comfort.  No, sadly for Kane, he is doomed before he starts by his nationality.  What’s wrong with being Canadian, you might ask?  Erika and Maryanne, that’s what.  The last two times there has been an opportunity to do so, a Canadian has won this show.  This, in the minds of this case, who JUST saw “Survivor 42” end before coming out, makes Canadians a threat.  Possibly Kane can try and pass himself off as an American, but that’s a big lie to keep up, and if there’s somehow another spelling challenge, he’ll give himself away.  Unfortunately, by virtue of his place of birth, Kane is a goner.  Another pre-merge boot.  And to those who say “So two Canadians won back to back, no big deal!”, I would remind you that it took only ONE successful women’s alliance (after at least three failed attempts at one, if you’re being really picky about what constitutes an “attempt” at a “women’s alliance”) for contestants to have a fear of women’s alliances that arguably persists TO THIS DAY.  I give it at least 3-5 years before the paranoia dies down to the point where a Canadian can win again.  

Frannie Marin (23, Research Coordinator, Cambringe, MA, Soka Tribe): If I were to describe Frannie in one word, it would be “quirky”.  Not too surprising, considering she compares herself to this blog’s beloved Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  She also says that Sophie Clarke (“Survivor South Pacific”) and the Scarlet Witch are her heroes, which we can get behind.  Likability does not always translate into success, though, and these traits that we the audience love could end up being a detriment to Frannie’s game, if they are in excess.  Thankfully, Frannie also seems to be able to tone it down when needed, as evidenced by her not-too-wordy bio.  She’s also another with no listed pet peeves, though again, that could just be a hiccup of how I’m reading these bios.  Couple this with her likely being on the strongest overall tribe for challenges, and I see Frannie making it to the early-to-mid merge.  She’s not subtle enough to win, but should make it decently far, and will certainly be fun along the way.  

Brandon Cottom (30, Security Specialist, Newtown, PA, Ratu Tribe): We end our cast assessment with the most “celebrity” of these contestants.  His occupation may be “Security Specialist”, but Brandon is more well known as a linebacker for the Seattle Seahawks.  Brandon pretty well fits the archetype we’ve come to expect for sports players on “Survivor”.  Decent, if not great, at challenges.  Generally charming, but not as much game sense.  A good team player who likely can’t win, but unless their fame is well-known, should make the mid-merge area or so.  Brandon is pretty bog-standard in this category, so I don’t see that much more needs to be said about him than that.  They wanted another by-the-book sports player on this show, and that’s what they got.  

And thus, we round out the cast assessment, and I am hyped.  While I struggled to find things to say about a LOT of the cast of “Survivor 43”, here I struggled to find people I DIDN’T have a lot of things to say about, for good and for ill.  That bodes well for at least an entertaining season.  But let’s talk about some miscellaneous topics, shall we?

No more delaying, time to address the Angelina in the room.  While it wasn’t as common as I thought on first read, it DID seem like people were mentioning Angelina more than they had in previous seasons.  What’s more, most of them were looking at her in a new light, saying she got a raw deal in the edit.  Is this some sort of Angelina Renaissance?  No, I think it’s an indication that, if these people are fans, they’re very RECENT fans.  Recall that “Survivor David vs. Goliath” was recently on Netflix, getting wider exposure than a lot of the other seasons of the show have had in some time.  It probably got a lot of new people interested in the show, thus explaining why Angelina seems to pop up, at least to me, more than she normally would.  This makes me doubt who deep their fandom is, but at the same time, this might be a good compromise.  I’m on the side of liking superfans on the show, but I can see the other side, who want people clueless about the game to prevent gameplay that feels overused.  As such, getting recent fans who know the game to a degree, but not encyclopedically, might be a good middle ground we can all enjoy.  

On a more negative note, I HATE these tribe names.  Apart from running afoul of my dislike of short tribe names, this season, perhaps more than any other, REALLY shows why staying in Fiji long-term is an issue.  Eventually, you run into similar sounding names, making it harder to distinguish tribes between seasons.  Here, I’ll do the rundown of similar names for the tribes right now: Ratu=Ravu, Soka=Soko, Tika=Tiva.  And that was just of the top of my head!  I’m sure I’d find more similarities if I actually did RESEARCH on this.  Not to mention, I’m surprised that the show was even ALLOWED to use “Ratu” for a tribe name.  I may not know much about Fijian culture, but one thing I DO know is the definition of “Ratu”, that being “chief”.  The OTHER thing I know is that Fijians are VERY picky about how the term gets used.  Jokes or irreverence for the term are a big no-no, and so I’m amazed, assuming they even had permission, that the show got to use it.  Even if so, though, it does not excuse the similar names.  Show, either come up with better names, or better yet, SHOOT IN LOCATIONS OTHER THAN FIJI!

Finally, while I did not consider medevacs in my placement predictions, and don’t think it’s fair to ask me to predict effectively an act of God with little outside evidence, here are who I think are the most likely medevac possibilities: Matthew due to the preview showing probably him falling off the rock, Lauren since we can assume Ratu loses someone besides Matthew from the preview and I think we would have remembered her hair, Carolyn due to her age/general lack of physical survival skills, and I’ll throw in Josh as a wild-card due to the immunosuppressants concern I voiced earlier.  

So there you have it, my thoughts on the cast!  Let me know what you all think, and assuming we’re still alive and the show is still airing in this apocalyptic hellscape, I look forward to blogging the premiere of “Survivor 44” for you all!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 10: Inspiration Struck

Ah, the eternal double-edged sword of “Survivor”.  If you had enough drive to get on the show, most likely you want to appear on tv.  This means you want screen time, and will therefore engage in “antics” in order to get it.  Trouble is, said “antics”, intentional or not, make you more visible to the players as well most of the time.  This, in turn, logically leads to a bigger target, and more likely elimination.  So, do you play an invisible game with a higher likelihood of winning, or a more visible game that comes with higher risk of losing?

Getting back from our double Tribal Council last episode, our first group is still riding the high of what they pulled off, while the second group fills them in.  Karla, we see, is not overly pleased with the outcome overall.  True, she stayed in the majority and still has Cassidy on her side, but knows that she was only clued in thanks to a last-minute decision by Sami.  This, she tells us, is the first time she’s been talked about being left out of a vote, rightly making her nervous.  Cassidy is in higher spirits, noting that her rivalry with Ryan has finally been settled in her victory.  

Jesse, meanwhile, is riding a high.  While the vote didn’t go 100% the way he wanted, since Cassidy is still around, she’s been severely weakened, and pretty much all the advantages are gone.  The few that remain, Jesse knows about, largely because he holds most of them.  The only exception, Karla’s idol, is something Jesse knows about, FINALLY confirming that yes, word about Karla’s bead collecting eventually got around.  I mean, we could all kind of assume that happened unless Coco members were really that isolated, but still, always good to have confirmation.  

Our challenge comes early today, largely because it’s a reward challenge.  Winner gets to go to a secluded spot with food, drink, and a night in a comfy bed.  It’s also the reward that usually gets messages from home in this era of “Survivor”, something they just tell the players this time around, rather than keeping a surprise.  The challenge itself is your bog-standard obstacle course.  I’ll give credit that the spinny devices at the beginning are not something you see every day, but also feel more like a playground device than something that should be on “Survivor”.  

But you know what “Survivor” doesn’t have enough of?  Inspirational moments!  Said no one ever in this era.  There’s a fair bit of back and forth in this challenge, but Noelle falls about the farthest behind.  Basically, the middle portion of the challenge is a “Cross the balance beam and untie a sandbag” segment, and here is one of the few areas of competition where I would say Noelle’s prosthetic could reasonably be a detriment.  Not because it should really affect her sense of balance that much, but she does lose out on the tactile sensation of her leg on the beam.  Granted, everyone else is wearing shoes which should also deaden said sensation somewhat, but not to nearly the same degree.  Then, to add insult to injury, when she DOES get through the seat she worked up disengages the seal on said prosthetic.  Through all this, she perseveres and, as in any good story, goes on to come back and win the challenge.  Good for her.  

Too bad Probst has to ruin the moment!  We can SEE the struggle she’s going through, Probst!  You don’t have to beat the idea into the ground OVER and OVER again!  Trust the moment to stand on its own.  And yes, while this WAS a comeback victory, it’s definitely not “one of the biggest in ‘Survivor’ history”.  Impressive?  Sure.  But Kass McQuillen in the Final Four of “Survivor Cagayan” this ain’t.  

Noelle ultimately gets four picks to take on reward, and her choices make pretty good sense.  Sami, the swing vote who would need to be in on any strategy conversation, Jesse, whom Noelle seems overall closest to, and Owen, who voted with her last episode, and can be justified as having “not eaten”.  I could nitpick the order, since Sami is probably the hardest to justify at face-value and so should have probably been her last pick, but again, that would be a nitpick.  

Everyone goes off and enjoys the reward.  It’s sweet seeing them get their letters as per usual, with Owen and Jesse both tearing up.  Owen is due to his father writing “love you” in the letter, which is unusual for him, while Jesse’s kids tell him to go for the money, therefore setting up an ironic downfall or an ultimate victory.  Either way, sweet moment.  Sami and Noelle are there too, I guess.  

Strategy talk must recommence, and unsurprisingly it’s Sami who gets the ball rolling.  While he admits he likes Karla and wants to work with her, he feels he has a better shot with the four who are there, plus Gabler and Cody roped in.  Noelle emphatically agrees, and they plan to split the votes between Karla and Cassidy, mainly leaning towards Cassidy if possible.  A solid plan, and not really bad for anyone there.  Potential to flush an idol, breaking up one of the two remaining power couples (and with Jesse on reward, it would be tough to discuss breaking up him and Cody).  Pretty good deal all around.  Too bad it will come to nothing.  Got discussed too early in the episode.  

Not to say that strategy is absent at camp.  Cody busts out his salesmanship skills once again, leading him and Cassidy, who haven’t really connected up until now, to go and have a chat.  Cassidy throws out Noelle’s name as a possibility, saying she’s too big of a threat.  This surprises me a little bit, but as this gets talked about more later on, we’ll save the rant for then as well.  That said, I can see that with this group, Cassidy has little choice.  Noelle is about the only person on reward that she can target with no blowback.  Jesse and Cody are allied, so he’s out.  Gabler is close with Owen, so he’s out.  Sami is the swing vote required to make any plan work, so he’s out.  That leaves Noelle.  Cassidy, Karla, and Gabler have a conversation to the same effect at the water well, leading Gabler to note how good his position is.  Grandstanding at the merge feast aside, Gabler is not a bad player by any means (not spectacular, but not bad), and recognizes that he is a swing.  Good positioning for him.  

Said conversation also highlights Cassidy’s colorful, poofy pants.  Have those always been there?  If not, they’ve gotten far too little screen time thus far.  

Our immunity challenge today is the “Aubry Bracco” challenge from “Survivor Game Changers”, and just typing those words makes me happy.  Yes, the impetus for this challenge might have come in “Survivor Gabon”, and we might first have seen this challenge in this format played on “Survivor South Pacific”, but Aubry holds the record, and therefore this is her challenge.  The winner is, of course, Aubry, whose record is maintained.  Seriously, I know this is not an easy challenge, but these people seemed to drop more than usual.  

Record intact, our winner for this season is Cassidy, thus throwing a large wrench in the plans of the majority.  A new target is needed, meaning we get to see who is most on the outs of the six.  Noelle declares that it shall be Sami, which makes sense.  The swing vote, while good in terms of dictating who shall go at any given moment, also means one has fewer tight bonds, and is most likely to be on the outs.  Also, for all that he’s playing well, Sami has not exactly been subtle in his scheming.  Thus, the plan is made to split the Baka votes on Karla, Vesi votes on Sami.  Not sure who Vesi tells Sami they intend to vote for, but hey, reasonable plan.  Noelle tells us she is 95% certain Karla will go tonight, thereby guaranteeing that Karla will stay.

This is where the “Noelle is a threat” bug bites Jesse, however.  He explains that Noelle has been making nice, visible moves to the jury, and continues to hang on in spite of her number one allies getting axed.  Owen is even called the “New Dwight” at one point.  And I will admit, this argument DOES have some basis.  While ultimately unnecessary, Noelle’s use of the steal-a-vote as a bluff was smart and well-executed, not to mention flashy.  There is something to be said for her tenacity as well.  But with all that said, those factors might be enough against a WEAKER cast in terms of strategy, but this has not been a weaker cast in that department.  Weak in entertainment?  Somewhat.  Strategy though?  No.  For all her flash, Noelle has not been the major strategic force behind a single decision in this game, which most everyone else left has to their name.  Sure, she definitely beats Gabler, as he’s pretty much the only person left I see with no shot at winning in any scenario, and there’s a few people she might be able to get the edge on at Final Tribal.  I could see her beating Owen and Cody, for example, particularly if the latter does a bad job at articulating his strategy.  But this level of targeting?  Doesn’t seem warranted.  

About the only factor not discussed that I could see mattering is concern of votes based on her overcoming the difficulties of surviving the jungle with a prosthesis, and if that’s the case… Sorry, but I don’t buy that’s a factor any more.  With the types of people they cast of late, they tend to vote more on how one played the game than the difficulties.  The leg will largely be a non-factor, and not enough reason to target Noelle over others, if it was a factor.  

If nothing else, though, the scheming does give Jesse the chance to give the editors some fun.  Jesse takes us through the “Blindside Checklist” for how to pull one off, which the editors dutifully pull up and check off at the appropriate times.  Step one is “Have a cover story’ meaning you should be able to justify your conversations.  Jesse pulls this off brilliantly, dismissing his conversation with Cody as being about giving back the idol.  Noelle buys it, and even tells him to go talk to other people, giving Jesse all the cover he needs.  The next step involves actually rounding up the votes.  Easily enough done, in this case.  Jesse warns Karla of the votes, and they agree to vote for Noelle.  Karla, Cassidy, Jesse, and Cody make enough of a majority to take out Noelle.  Karla, however, rightly points out that the other four could vote together, putting a kink in the plan.  Thus, Jesse moves to step three of getting a backup.  Backup in this case is Gabler, who agrees to vote Noelle with the other four, solidifying things.  

It’s here, however, where Jesse potentially flies too close to the sun.  However he may present, like I said before, Gabler is not an idiot.  He realizes that Jesse and Cody are a tight pair no one’s targeting, and he realizes this makes them dangerous.  As such, he goes to Karla to talk about blindsiding them.  How, you may ask?  The split vote means he plus Karla and Cassidy could be enough.  With their three votes on either Jesse or Cody, they would have a plurality against Cody and Jesse’s two on Noelle, Sami and Owen’s two on Karla, and Noelle’s lone vote on Sami.  An interesting scenario to say the least, and probably the smartest move out of the three.  Time is running out to break of the pairs, and you know they have at least one idol.  This is yet another reason Noelle should not be as big a target as she is, since the other two plausible targets (not counting Sami, who would be at the bottom of the “need to be targeted” list at the moment due his number still being valuable) have idols and tight connections that she doesn’t have.  With the limited time frame, plus Jesse’s two idols from the audience perspective, he should be target number one.  Karla, with her tight connections and also an idol, is priority two.  Noelle is third, with Sami a close fourth of our targets.  

Rather than Tribal Council, Probst just takes this opportunity to milk Noelle’s performance in the reward challenge some more.  Ok, more happens than that, but it’s more forced analogies and double-talk.  Nothing really worth writing about.  There is good mystery on the vote, and I will say it’s decently impressive that Karla doesn’t play her idol this episode.  Granted, she could be fairly confident the target wasn’t on her, given Jesse spilled the beans to her, indicating that he genuinely wanted to move against Noelle, but still.  You hear your name come up, I can’t blame you for thinking maybe it should be played.  Kudos to her for not doing so.  

Evidently not wanting to play too risky, Noelle goes home.  For all that it was the wrong strategic move, I’m not overly sorry to see Noelle go of these targets  No disrespect to her.  She was a fine player, decently entertaining, and had some of the best reactions on the sit-out bench in a while!  The other targets were just better in those areas, with the exception of the sit-out reactions.  Noelle goes out with good grace, which I can also respect.  

This episode was solidly good.  Really not much more to say about it than that.  It hit the beats it needed to, did them well, but no so much that I’m thinking this is one of the all-time great episodes.  That’s ok.  Not every episode needs to be home-run exciting.  And if I may speculate for a moment (and I should be able to; it’s in the title after all), I’m thinking this is a set-up for a knock-out next episode.  For all my talk that if Jesse didn’t have a downfall tonight he wins, I doubt that point Gabler made will be forgotten, and may have just gained more allies.  Not much attention was drawn to it, but Sami was clearly surprised at his name coming up.  I don’t expect him to forget that, or take it lightly.  Given his liking of working with Karla, I could see him joining the anti-Cody/Jesse group next week, possibly pulling in Owen if they want to split the votes.  All this then begs the question as to whether or not even a split vote can overcome the two idols.  Oh, the anticipation!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Kaoh Rong

Once again, if CBS will not fill the void in our fandom when this goes up by officially announcing the cast of the new season, then it falls to me to fill the void with needless speculation about “What Might Have Been”.  And oh, what a treat we have today.  “Survivor Kaoh Rong” is a personal favorite season of mine, largely due to giving us Aubry Bracco, my all-time favorite player at the time of this writing.  I acknowledge that the season has some flaws, mainly in the editing department, and this keeps if out of the “Great” category of seasons, but I still love it.  Definite room for improvement, though, so let’s see if one tiny change is enough.  

Before discussing said change, though, the usual reminder that there are SPOILERS ahead.  It’s difficult to talk about changing a season without comparing it to how the season actually went down in reality, so I can’t guarantee that this and future seasons won’t be spoiled in this blog.  Past seasons may also be mentioned as well.  Hence, read at your own risk.  

THE IMPACT

Like with Africa, which we talked about earlier this off-season, Kaoh Rong is something of a Holy Grail for “What-If?” scenarios.  Between the medical evacuations and the number of lucky coincidences that happen, there’s just a trove to go through.  Most of these center around Aubry in particular, since while you may say what you want about her in hindsight, she is presented as the main character of this season, so of course most story beats will seem to center around her.  In particular, it’s common for the Michele fans/Aubry detractors to point out that she was saved by luck (had Neal not been medevaced, she almost certainly goes at the merge), while the Aubry fans/Michele detractors will counter that Aubry was also screwed by luck (if Joe doesn’t eat a ton of meat at the final five, Michele almost certainly goes then, leading to an inevitable Aubry victory).  The point I’m making here is twofold: Luck is a factor in “Survivor”, for good or for ill, and these scenarios have been gone over to death by the fanbase, are both equally true, and thus not interesting enough to talk about in this blog on their own.  

Now that I’ve hopefully dodged THAT bullet, and also hopefully avoided reigniting a dead debate that was very cruel and unnecessary, we can talk about the actual change we’re going to make.  Rather than change the outcome of luck, we’re going to change someone else’s mind.  That someone is, of course, Aubry, and that time is going to be at the Final 6.  In our timeline, Tai pushed for ejecting Michele here, something Aubry could have gone along with.  She had Joe’s vote on lock, and Jason, the intended target of Michele and Cydney, would doubtless have gone along with the plan if only to save his own skin.  In our timeline, of course, Aubry sides with Michele and Cydney, citing Cydney as someone she’s tight with, and Jason goes home here.  

That said, what if Aubry decided to take more of an interest in Tai’s plan?  What if Aubry became concerned about the tight twosome that Michele and Cydney form?  We know from post-show interviews that the two were tight from the swapped Chan Loh (and thank you, by the way, show, for COMPLETELY leaving out that particular storyline, only adding to the confusion your ending brought).  It’s not impossible that Aubry becomes concerned about this, and decides to go along with Tai’s plan.  The immediate outcome, of course, is that Michele goes while Jason stays, but what about how the rest of the season (all two remaining episodes of it at least) plays out?  

THE FALLOUT

Aubry choosing to keep Jason is, of course, a controversial move.  I suspect Aubry justifies it to the cameras by emphasizing the Cydney/Michele bond, and also stating that Jason is not good at puzzles, or looks that good to the jury.  Even so, I’m sure this is seen by the fanbase as a possible game-ruining move at the time, and Jason probably brags to confessional about how he just saved himself, even though it was really Tai and Aubry’s doing.  Apart from this, though, our penultimate episode doesn’t change much.  Joe probably still wins reward, and while he may take Tai rather than Cydney with him (and even that’s not guaranteed), this does not change him eating too much meat on reward, and getting evacuated as a result.  Really, all that we can guarantee changes is that Aubry looks an even bigger fool going into the finale, noting in confessional that not voting out Jason may have been her biggest mistake, now that he’s guaranteed a spot in the final four.  

Now, there is one possible change that could shape how things go, which is the aforementioned who Joe chooses to take on reward.  Nothing really changes if he takes Cydney, and she and Aubry patch things up on reward.  If Joe is still in the mindset of “No trust with Cydney” from the last vote, though, I could see him taking Tai.  If so, this raises the possibility that Cydney, burned from the last vote, makes amends with Jason.  In the Aubry/Michele debate in our timeline, Cydney often gets left by the wayside, despite being an excellent strategist and key player in the dominant alliance.  True, she wasn’t beating either of our two heroines, given how many bridges she burned, but still, she deserves respect.  I could see her trying to worm her way back in with Jason, especially if she believed that Aubry had fully turned against her, and not just wanted to break up her bond with Michele.  Whether it would work is another matter.  Jason strikes me as the type to hold a grudge, and I’m not sure he’d be open to anything Cydney had to say.  True, you could argue he has few options, but I could see him believing he could just immunity his way to the end from here.  

All this to say that while I acknowledge another possibility is available, I suspect Cydney tries to work her way back in with Aubry, having little choice otherwise.  Fortunately for her, Jason is still considered the bigger target, and is in for a round of bad luck.  I don’t see him winning the final four immunity, given how tricky that puzzle was, meaning Tai is the most likely winner.  Sadly, we do miss out on Michele’s kicking of the puzzle, so that’s one downgrade.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Jason, without immunity, goes at final four.  Given that he’s the villain of the season, even in this timeline, there is much rejoicing from the audience.  

Of course, this leads us to the challenge at the final three.  It’s certainly possible that, unless Cydney wins, Aubry goes to the end, so I could see the season following “Survivor Cagayan” even more closely, and going for a final two here.  On the other hand, I don’t think production wants to risk even that, so we probably still have our “Juror Removal” twist and a final three there.  Fittingly, this final three is one “Brain”, one “Brawn”, and one “Beauty”, a fun bit of symmetry.  

Given how close Aubry came in that challenge, coupled with it not playing to Sydney’s strengths, I’d say Aubry is probably the winner of the challenge.  It would be easy to say she just votes Scot off the jury, since that’s what she wanted in our timeline, but in this timeline, I think she goes for Julia.  Also a person guaranteed not to vote for her, but more so than Scot in this timeline.  Scot doesn’t like anybody on this final three.  He doesn’t want to vote for any of them.  Yet, since Aubry burned him the least directly out of those left, I could see her thinking she has a shot at his vote.  And if she doesn’t, well, Julia was never going to vote for her either, so it all evens out anyway.  

Perhaps controversial these days, but I’m inclined to say that Aubry wins in this final three regardless of who she gets rid of.  She has three votes guaranteed on this jury (Neal, Nick, and Joe), and while she definitely has two votes guaranteed against her (Michele and Debbie), I think she has a chance at at least Jason’s vote.  After all, if he and Cydney didn’t mend their relationship, then we know from our timeline that Jason was rooting against Cydney, and Tai directly betrayed him on the Scot boot.  Jason may not care for Aubry, but she’s the least objectionable out of the three.  Add onto that Michele’s excellent Final Tribal performance not being there, and Aubry’s average Final Tribal performance looks a lot better.  It may only be 4-3 (depending on who our final jury member is, and how persuadable they actually are), but Aubry comes out on top here.  

THE LEGACY

Before we get into how this impacts the view of the season as a whole, let’s talk about future seasons, since really, this changes little.  While Jason and Cydney are both bigger, more respected characters, there’s not really a good chance for them to come back.  “Survivor Game Changers” is the only full returnee season since then, and I don’t see them nixing any of the Kaoh Rong players we got in our timeline.  And I don’t see them having more than four from a single season, so that is shot.  Aubry’s win doesn’t preclude her coming back, either, since winners were ok that season.  

That said, her win DOES torpedo her chances, and I’d say Aubry is maybe even first out of this season in this timeline.  One of the reasons I will defend Aubry’s game on Game Changers is that, while she never had any real power, the fact that she even MADE IT that far is impressive.  Game Changers, like “Survivor All-Stars” before it, had an anti-winner bias.  Less because “They already got money”, and more because “They’re the biggest threats.”  This justification led to Aubry being lumped in this group in our timeline, with no less than the Queen herself, Sandra Diaz-Twine, wanting her gone.  After all, the prevailing wisdom at the time was “Aubry should have won.”  Partly by good swap luck, and partly by her own guile, Aubry making it as far as she did, power or no, was nothing short of a miracle, and her game that season deserves respect.  But with an actual win under her belt?  Aubry has no chance of making it far this season.  

Of course, this does preclude her from coming back for Edge of Extinction, so she’ll need a replacement.  This would seem the place to include Cydney, but it’s only in the last year or two that Cydney has said she’s willing to return.  She’s doubtless asked, but I think she declines, for the understandable reason of her body deteriorating from the show not being good for her bodybuilding career.  My next thought for who to put in Aubry’s spot was someone cast after her to match her archetype.  Hannah Shapiro of “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” and Gabby Pascuzzi of “Survivor David vs. Goliath” would probably be the top candidates in that regard.  However, I ended up deciding that neither would go, as the former has stated she won’t play again, while the latter, having just come from the same filming cycle, would be unfamiliar to the fans that season.  She would basically get the same reaction from the players as Amanda on “Survivor Micronesia”, and I don’t think production wants that again.  

No, I think Aubry’s open spot here gives Chrissy Hoffbeck (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) her second shot.  While not the “nerd” archetype that Aubry has, Chrissy still gets the “offbeat choice” niche, while still being a favorite who is known to the fans.  Does this change the season drastically?  Eh, probably not.  While Chrissy might make it farther than Aubry does in our timeline, if only by virtue of actually playing an idol if she finds it, the anti-returnee sentiment on this season was too strong, and we still probably get our unsatisfying Chris win here.  The one upside is that there is no “Drive Aubry away from the fanbase by personally attacking her for a bad game decision”, meaning we have a more active online Aubry in this timeline, for which I, for one, am eternally grateful.  Seriously, fanbase, shame on you for how you acted toward her.  Agree or disagree with her, what you did is not ok.  

While Aubry’s win precludes her from appearing on Edge of Extinction, it puts her in the running for Winners at War.  Given that she’s a relatively recent, popular winner at this point, I don’t see her not coming back.  We don’t even have to speculate about who she replaces, since she just takes the spot Michele had in our timeline.  Does Aubry mimic Michele’s placement this season?  Probably not.  While I am an Aubry fan, I will admit that Michele’s game, while not as fun to watch, is overall smarter in terms of making a deep run.  Both play fantastic games that can be winning ones, but run their seasons a hundred times randomized, and Michele’s strategy wins out more often than Aubry’s.  Aubry probably goes either after the swap, depending on if she gets a bad draw, or early-ish in the merge if not.  Probably around where Adam goes in our timeline is her ceiling, just due to her threat level.  

But what of Kaoh Rong as a whole?  Well, for what I believe is the first time in the history of these blogs, we actually have a timeline change that RETROACTIVELY changes a season, or at least how it’s presented.  Specifically, Aubry’s decision at final six will FORCE the edit to highlight the Cydney/Michele bond a lot more to justify Aubry’s action, which is criticized at the time but in hindsight is seen as a brilliant move.  This paints the pair in a different light.  For want of a better term, a villainous light.  Don’t misunderstand, the pair aren’t the villains of the season; Scot and Jason claimed that title pretty definitively when they started sabotaging the camp.  But the pair are presented in a similar way to Ami on “Survivor Vanuatu”.  Not bad as people, but shrewd players who are an obstacle to our underdog hero.  Thereby de-facto antagonists, if not necessarily villainous.  This is why Cydney gets elevated to a higher status in the fandom, though conversely, Michele kind of becomes a footnote.  

Of course an Aubry win makes Kaoh Rong work much better as a season, and elevates it to at least near-greatness.  I hesitate to give it full greatness, partly taking into account my pro-Aubry bias, and partly because I could see her win being seen as “predictable”, which is often a mark against a season.  The main problem with the season in our timeline is that everything in the narrative tells us that Aubry SHOULD win against anyone.  I know edgic set up Michele as the winner fairly early, but as someone who was firmly watching at the time, I can tell you the assumption was that Michele won because Aubry got eliminated before the finals.  Thus, it still felt wrong when Aubry made finals but lost anyway.  There’s a conflict between what we think SHOULD happen narratively, and what ACTUALLY happens.  An Aubry win avoids that conflict, and at least for me, makes a much better season as a whole.  

Ok, so maybe this was an excuse to give my favorite player a win.  I admit to more bias in this blog than perhaps any other.  Still, I hope the scenario has been at least semi-plausible and fun for everyone, though!  Let me know what scenarios you’d like covered in the future!  I’ll happily give credit to anyone who gives me an idea I use.  Just post it in the comments section of this blog, or wherever you happened to find this blog.  Guidelines for submissions are listed below.  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Island of the Idols.

As always, our suggestions and feedback are much appreciated.  Take care out there, everyone!

-Matt

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 42 Cast Assessment”

Ah, the sweet, sweet feeling of NOT needing to wait over a year to talk about new “Survivor” content.  Sure, the bios are still noticeably lacking in information, but hey, at least we actually GET the tribe divisions pre-season this time.  Already a leg up on the previous season, and for once that’s actually a compliment, and not meant as a dig at a bad season.  

Ladies, gentlemen, non-binary individuals, it is my esteemed pleasure to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to!  With the announcement of a new cast a month out from the show’s premiere, that mean’s it’s naturally time for me to make snap judgments about each of them that will inevitably be wrong, and then be mercilessly mocked for my ignorance later!  I’m sure you’ve all got your mocking sticks ready, so let’s waste no more time, and jump right into this cast assessment!

Jonathan Young (29, Beach Service Company Owner, Gulf Shores, AL, Taku Tribe): A fun fact about Jonathan is that he was a contest on the Discovery Kids show “Endurance”, a fact that he slyly references by using “Endurance”, with the capital “E” to describe himself.  Nice bit of subtlety there, Jonathan.  For those who don’t know, “Endurance” was kind of like “Survivor”, but for kids.  A group gets put in some wilderness (usually in the US for travel purposes), then compete against each other in a series of challenges, both physical and interpersonal, to become the last pair remaining and win the grand prize.  Will this help him on “Survivor”?  Eh, probably not much.  There’s worse training you can do, but “Endurance” was effectively catered cabin camping, as compared to the more brutal nature of “Survivor”, and the interpersonal politics only took one so far when elimination came down to effectively a game of “Rock, Paper, Scissors”.  Honestly, I think the thing that’s most helpful about Jonathan’s time on “Endurance” is the fact that his season was one of the few that went international.  They filmed in Fiji; in fact on the same island “Survivor” uses today.  Far-fetched as it may be, I could see Jonathan’s familiarity with the land being helpful in terms of finding idols and advantages in the game.  Tempting as it might be to look at Jonathan’s gameplay on “Endurance” for clues to how he’ll do here, the fact is that was 15 years ago, and a person changes a lot in that time.  As to how Jonathan is now?  He’s basically the most quintessential “Florida Man” I’ve ever seen, which is impressive for someone who doesn’t actually live in Florida.  The dude is all about athleticism and a good time, but not much else.  He compares himself to Ozzy, which seems apt given his strengths and weaknesses.  It speaks poorly of his chances of winning, but bear in mind the only time Ozzy went out pre-merge was because he ASKED to as a strategy.  As such, I’d put Jonathan in the same category: Coasts along on his strength early on, only to be picked off as a threat in the early-to-mid merge.  

Marya Sherron (47, Stay-At-Home Mom, Noblesville, IN, Taku Tribe): Normally I’d be down on the chances of the “Mom” archetype that Marya seems to play into, but as we saw with Tiffany and Heather last season, that can work to one’s advantage.  That said, there are some red flags I’m noticing for Marya.  The pet peeves rear their ugly head, as while one is relatively harmless to her chances (people who don’t cover their sneezes, which unless Bobby Jon Drinkard from “Survivor Palau” is secretly coming back this season, she probably doesn’t need to worry too much), but “meanness” is a bit harder to stomach.  Granted, it’s not as bad as one’s pet peeve being, say, “Liars”, but it’s not a particularly good sign in my book either.  She also talks about wanting to be a leader, and to play like Angelina (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) and Tony (“Survivor Cagayan”), which at best seems like a weird, slightly chaotic combination in my book.  Unfortunately, the real nail in the coffin for Marya is the tribe she’s on.  It’s probably the strongest of the three challenge-wise, which means she won’t be vulnerable for a few tribal councils most likely, but that’s partly because this tribe skews younger, making her stand out, which is particularly bad in the early days of “Survivor”.  They also skew fairly quirky, which again, not a word I would use to describe Marya.  She may not be the first target on their minds, unless she costs them a challenge, but I’d still expect Marya to be a pre-merge boot, though later rather than earlier within that category.  

Romeo Escobar (37, Pageant Coach, Norwalk, CA, Ika Tribe): You know, sometimes it’s really hard to pick a first boot out of a cast.  Perhaps because everyone seems relatively even in terms of tribe challenge ability, perhaps because everyone presents themselves really well, perhaps because people outright lie in their bio.  Then sometimes you get a Semhar Tadesse (“Survivor South Pacific”) whose very presence screams “First Boot”.  Unfortunately for Romeo, he falls into the latter category for me.  Right off the bat, he strikes me as the type who will bring a lot of drama.  Great for television, bad for sticking around, especially when tribes are this small.  When even he describes himself as “impatient”, you know you’ve got an issue.  Plus, while this is more of a personal annoyance, he’s about the only person on this cast who says “No player has been like me before.”  Now, as a pageant coach, Romeo must be used to dealing with big personalities, so if he had the opportunity to stick around a few days, and let others start drama of their own, I could see him having a decent run.  Unfortunately, he’s on what looks set to be the “disaster tribe” of this season, and by sticking out so much, he’s just doomed to an early exit should his tribe attend Tribal Council early, which they likely will.  Please prove me wrong man, but my gut says you’re doomed.  

Tori Meehan (25, Therapist, Rogers, AR, Ika Tribe): Hoo boy, here we go.  We need to talk about Tori.  Let’s go through her bio shall we?  Her pet peeves are “When people lack self-awareness, are emotionally reactive, immature, or petty.”  She brags about how easy it was to get through college debt-free.  She’s ultra-religious, literally listing Jesus as her hero, and referencing the importance of her faith over and over.  She DARES to compare herself to Kim Spradlin, arguably the greatest player of the game of all time.  She goes and has a degree similar to my own, thereby putting her in far too close proximity to myself for my liking.  And then, if what I’ve seen about her social media is to be believed, she’s a vaccine denier (though I’ll admit I don’t have firsthand information on this one).  All this combines to make Tori very likely to win the game.  That game of course being “Which Contestant Can Make Matt Despise Them The Quickest?”  The game of “Survivor”?  Not so much.  If she annoys me, chances are she’s going to annoy at least SOME other people out there, who are likely to end up on her tribe at some point.  And while I’m TRYING to not see overt religion as a red flag (as Shan proved last season, one can still play a competent game with overt religion as well), this feels too excessive even for me.  Her pet peeves, as should be obvious, do her no favors either.  So, with all these marks against her, why do I not say she’ll be the first boot over Romeo, whom I might actually ENJOY watching, given that she’s also on the likely “disaster tribe”?  Well… Much as I might WANT Tori to be sent packing super early, and much as I will enjoy the moment when it inevitably comes, we have a season preview to go off of, and that season preview gave us the bad news that Tori finds some advantage, presumably an idol based on her reading about the phrases to activate said idol.  For all my negative talk about Tori, she doesn’t seem to be an idiot, and so I think can be trusted to strategically play her idol to her advantage.  I suspect she leverages it with her tribe to get herself father in the game than her personality might otherwise indicate.  That said, she’s doomed at the merge, idol or no idol.  The problem is that with the larger merges these days, the merge bootee tends to be the person who can most easily bring the group to a consensus. and no one screams “Will annoy most people.” on this cast more than Tori.  As such, expect her to be gone right at the merge.  And oh, what a happy, happy merge it will be.  

Jackson Fox (48, Healthcare Worker, Houston, TX, Taku Tribe): Ah, this is the palate cleanser I needed.  While I have my favorites from spoiled cast previews, there’s a few that, when I read about them, surprise me pleasantly.  Jackson is that one this time, such that I nearly made him my pick to win it all.  Dude reminds me of a modern-day Lex Van Den Berghe (“Survivor Africa”) in that while first impression might lead to him seeming kind of freaky, he’s a real softie underneath, with good emotional awareness.  His comparison to Elaine from “Island of the Idols” seems both apt and in his favor in this case.  Sadly, there’s a couple of bits that stop me short of calling him my winner pick.  He’s the other “older person” on a younger-skewing tribe, though given his own quirks, I think this is less an issue for him than for Marya a few bios back.  More concerning is his pet peeve of “people who don’t get to the point” since “Survivor” LOVES to cast long-winded talkers.  Still, I’ve seen people with more concerning pet peeves do well, and I certainly don’t see Jackson being much vulnerable until the merge, as he seems to be on the tribe least likely to lose.  I’d say he probably leaves in the late merge for being too much of a threat, and if he can imitate Lex’s game without all the gut problems (both in terms of read and in terms of parasites), I’d say he has a decent shot to win it all.  Plus, the dude likes dogs.  How can you not root at least a little for someone who likes dogs?

Chanelle Howell (29, Executive Recruiter, New York, NY, Vati Tribe): Our first look at the “middle of the road” tribe.  More likely to win a challenge than Ika, less so than Taku.  Much like her tribe, Chanelle is kind of middle of the road for me.  Her bio is very guarded, without much to recommend her one way or the other.  There are a couple of red flags; notably she’s another one who dares to set a high bar by comparing herself to Kim Spradlin, and given how much she talks about analysis and numbers, I worry she may focus too much on the strategic side of the game, and not enough on the interpersonal one.  Even so, barring that she costs Vati a challenge (which I don’t see happening, but then I didn’t see Sara last season doing so either), there’s little reason to get rid of Chanelle, as she’s fairly inoffensive.  I’d expect her to be a mid-merge boot, possibly a decoy to flush an idol.  Either way, will be a decent player, around for a decent amount of time.  

Omar Zaheer (31, Exotic Animal Veterinarian, Whitby, Ontario, Canada, Taku Tribe): Ah, now HERE we’re getting to the good stuff.  Omar stood out to me for name alone, and the more I read his bio, the more I fell in love, and not just because he listed “Settlers of Catan” as a hobby.  The dude just exudes “fun” and “humor” from every orifice, and I am here for every minute of it.  Now, on paper, Omar’s got some issues.  While only one of his pet peeves (rudeness) is likely to come up frequently in the game (I don’t see many vet bills coming on the island, and I don’t think pigeons are indigenous to Fiji), the sheer number of them is concerning.  Plus, he makes the opposite mistake when comparing himself to past players, trying to hybridize too many than to few (including, yet again, Kim Spradlin).  However, one must not only consider the charm that comes through a mere photo of the guy, but also his instance on the motto of “They must learn to adapt, or they’ll be voted out of the tribe.”  The very core of the game, yet one not overtly emphasized by most players these days.  Very refreshing to see, and speaks well of his chances, in my opinion.  So, is he my winner pick?  Yeah… No…  While I do expect him to do well, probably making the finale, he’s out at five or four for certain.  No one wants to let charm like that get to the end, and while decent at challenges, I don’t see him immunitying his way to a win.  Despite his charm, given his quirks I would actually have him out fairly early were it not again for the season preview, which shows him aligning with another smart person (yet to be talked about) on his tribe, and I think the pair of them can take control.  Rest assured, he’d be a goner if he wasn’t on what’s likely to be the dominant tribe.  As is, he’ll definitely do well, but much as I’d like to say he kicks everyone’s butt with his airbending prowess, even with his advantaged position he just doesn’t have the prowess to clinch the win.  Also, kudos to the five of you who understand why I made that specific reference in relation to Omar.  

Swati Goel (19, Ivy League Student, Palo Alto, CA, Ika Tribe): Sadly, Swati is our major case of “Someone who would probably do ok were they on a different tribe for the season.”  True, Swati has a couple of red flags even given her tribe, notably complaining about people who are “emotionally manipulative”,  and admiring human scum Elon Musk.  That said, it’s hard for me to diss a fellow theater kid, and I applaud her comparing herself favorably to the underrated players of Victoria Baamonde (“Survivor Edge of Extinction”) and Kass McQuillen (“Survivor Cagayan”).  Honestly, the good and bad kind of balance out, and given how drama filled this tribe is, they’d have bigger fish to fry, and she can coast by for a while.  That’s what I would be saying were it not for the presence of Tori and her advantage/idol, where Swati I think is likely going to be the victim.  She may not be the top of everyone’s hit list, but when those on the bottom swing into power, she suddenly drops in stock, and unfortunately goes pre-merge.  Again, a shame for a fellow theater kid, but I call them as I see them.  

Hai Giang (29, Data Scientist, New Orleans, LA, Vati Tribe): Hai is another one I was kind of “meh” on at first glance, but grew to love the more I read about him.  While the dude is another one who tends more towards the strategic side of the game, rather than the interpersonal, he has a sense of justice and humanity that I think helps balance it out.  More concerning are, again, his pet peeves, which include judgmental people and patronizing people, both of which are likely to show up on “Survivor”.  The best I can say is he probably doesn’t have to worry about people wearing shoes indoors here.  That said, I have a hard time poo-pooing someone who identifies with the great Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”), and given that he’s a likely challenge anchor on a tribe that will need to keep strength around to have a chance, Hai will still around until at least the early merge, if not the mid-merge.  Really, he’s going to be his own undoing, as I see his sense of justice leading to him potentially falling on his sword (or torch) for someone else he’s allied with.  Overall nice guy who will stick around at least a decent amount of time.  Always good to see.  

Lindsay Dolashewich (31, Dietitian, Asbury Park, NJ, Taku Tribe): Lindsay better hope that the Taku Tribe is truly dominant, as in going to Tribal Council no more than once pre-merge.  Otherwise, she’s going to have an issue.  Age-wise, Lindsay is a good fit for her tribe, but she seems very stiff-backed and set in her ways based on her bio.  Add on her self-describing as “loud”, and she can get on one’s nerves very easily.  That said, this is a fairly quirky tribe, and one unlikely to have a lot of early boots, which probably saves Lindsay’s bacon for a bit.  Marya stands out more, and so will go first, but Lindsay probably goes somewhere in the early merge.  That said, she does compare herself to the underrated Lauren Beck (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), and recognizes that social game is paramount.  If she can channel that strategic acumen and social grace, and manage to avoid being as sound as she normally is, she could have a deep run.  

Mike Turner (58, Retired Firefighter, Hoboken, NJ, Vati Tribe): How nice of CBS to let Eric Abraham from last season chance his name and get a second shot.  Seriously, older retired African-American dude, big on loyalty and playing the long game?  I could pretty much just copy/past Eric’s bio from last season, and it would take a minute to notice the difference.  Dude seems likable enough, but as Eric demonstrated last season, such a long, basic game doesn’t work on a shortened season with a ton of twists.  Mike does SLIGHTLY better than Eric given that his tribe is more competent, and there are more obvious early targets, but like his counterpart, I just don’t see Mike making the merge in this group.  

Lydia Meredith (22, Waitress, Santa Monica, CA, Vati Tribe): Some players are here for strategy, some players are here for entertainment, some players are here for both.  Time will tell Lydia’s strategic capabilities, but from her bio alone, she will be entertaining.  The name of the game is comedy, folks.  Lydia is an aspiring comedian, and first describes herself as “funny” before all else.  How will that translate to the island?  Frankly, it depends upon how good the comedy is, which I have no way of assessing just from her bio.  Save for her player comparisons.  In addition to the odd choice of Tom Westman (“Survivor Palau”), she mentions Cirie (“Survivor Exile Island”) and Debbie Wanner (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  One intentionally funny and good at the social game, one unintentionally funny and bad at the social game.  I leave it to the fans to figure out which is which.  Lydia’s got a shot at making it deep if she channels the former, but even if she channels the latter, unless her comedy REALLY bombs, I see her making at least the merge.  She’s lucky that she’s not on the disaster tribe, and that there are other more obvious targets before her.  I have a hard time seeing her winning, but I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t at least make the early merge, and could even go mid-merge if she’s more Cirie than Debbie.  

Rocksroy Bailey (44, Stay-At-Home Dad, Las Vegas, NV, Ika Tribe): No matter how disastrous a tribe may be, there’s always at least one person from it who makes it deep.  Such is the case with Rocksroy here, who is my male pick to win the whole shebang!  On a tribe that’s going to need challenge strength, Rocksroy is clearly their big gun, and likely in no danger early on as a result.  His pet peeve being drivers not using their turn signal also helps endear me to the guy, though I will say that “someone who thinks they know everything” is a bit more concerning game-wise.  The guy is brief in his bio. so there’s not a lot to go on, but enough that you feel like you know him.  What can I say, playing one’s cards close to the chest is a good thing on “Survivor”.  Plus, I feel like the dude is good at compartmentalizing and keeping secrets.  My evidence?  Like I said, this case got spoiled early, and spoilers come with pictures.  The one exception?  Rocksroy.  If the dude is good enough to keep his online presence such a secret there’s no good quality photos of him around, the dude is good enough to keep secrets on “Survivor”.  And once again, even the photo, dude exudes charm, and that charm alone is enough to make him my first winner pick of the season.  

Jenny Kim (43, Creative Director, New York, NY, Vati Tribe): Remember how I said there were some obvious targets should Vati go to Tribal Council?  Yeah, Jenny is definitely the big one here.  Being outspoken and in a leadership role works well in business, but on “Survivor”, particularly on small tribes that might not gel with your leadership style, they only make you a target.  jenny has a good shot if she can quietly lead from the sidelines, but I don’t see someone who describes themselves as “direct” doing very well with that.  Add onto that a concerning pet peeve (“Arrogant people and those with a sense of entitlement.”), along with less-obvious challenge prowess (though by no means a challenge sink), and Jenny becomes the obvious first pick for a boot should she attend an early Tribal.  As she’s not on the likely dominant tribe, I fear her fate is to be another robbed goddess, another pre-merge boot.  

Daniel Strunk (30, Law Clerk, New Haven, CT, Vati Tribe): Ah, our resident nerd archetype for the season, as well as the second person we confirmed to find an idol/advantage based on the season preview.  Daniel early on worms his way into my heart with his love of Legos, and fortunately I think he’ll be around for a while for this love to grow.  No real red flags apart from one of his pet peeves being “people so convinced they’re right they foreclose debate”, though I suppose the show could disguise some oatmeal raisin cookies as chocolate chip cookies to throw him off his game.  He also talked about admiring Supreme Court Justices of vastly different ideologies.  Perhaps a bit of a stretch, but I feel like this might indicate that he’s good at reaching across the aisle and work with pretty much anyone.  Always a useful skill on “Survivor”.  Sadly, the time of nerds being 100% dominant has passed, and so Daniel will not be our winner.  That said, just because nerds often do well and now getting targeted doesn’t mean Daniel can’t match that level of success.  His social acumen, coupled with his idol, to me makes him a mid-to-late merge boot, particularly since there’s often bigger targets than him no matter if he’s in the Tribal phase or the Merge phase.  

Maryanne Oketch (24, Seminary Student, Ajax, Ontario, Canada, Taku Tribe): Seems we’re just getting all the guaranteed idol/advantage finds out of the way here.  Yes, Omar may have REACTED to her find, but Maryanne is the one who actually FINDS the thing on the Taku Tribe.  Maryanne is… Well, the best word I have is “quirky”, but again, a lot of this tribe is quirky.  I’d say she’s in danger early, but she’s on the tribe least likely to lose on paper, and we know she finds something powerful, and I expect her and Omar to leverage that to become the power couple on the tribe.  Unlike Omar, however, I expect Maryanne to leverage her advantage to a win.  Yes, Maryanne is my female pick to win the whole thing.  This might come as a surprise, given her occupation, but again, Shan has made me see that as less of a red flag, and that’s really the only mention of her religion we get from Maryanne, so I think she’ll be able to compartmentalize well.  Granted, her pet peeves have ALL the red flags, and between her and Rocksroy, I’d say she’s my less-comfortable winner pick, but given that she has time to adjust, I think she can probably overcome these issues.  Besides, if Danny McCray can overcome “liars” as a pet peeve last season, Maryanne can overcome “People who don’t listen to me… hypocrites, and people who don’t apologize.”  If she can sleep well, she’ll do fairly well.  It’ll also help is she takes her cues from her previous contestant comparison.  Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) had charm coming out his ears, and I feel like Maryanne might as well.  Plus, she’s a fan of tabletop games.  How can I not root for her?

Zach Wurtenberger (22, Student, St. Louis, MO, Ika Tribe): Oh dear, guess I spoke too soon with Swati.  Look, Zach seems like a nice kid,  Not much to recommend him one way or the other, though I will say his particularly young age (second youngest in the group) is a bit of a mark against, and unlike Lydia, I HAVE seen his comedy.  It’s… Not CRINGE-WORTHY, but not exactly good either.  None of this would really be a death knell, but he’s unfortunately on what’s likely to be the disaster tribe, and thus probably another pre-merge boot.  Sorry, man.  Hope for another “Second Chances” season where you get a better tribe draw.  

Drea Wheeler (35, Fitness Consultant, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Ika Tribe): Rounding out our cast, we have the person who, at first glance, I THOUGHT was going to be my main winner pick for the season.  True, she’s on the likely disaster tribe, but like I said, SOME on the disaster tribe have to make it through, and as Drea is a likely challenge beast, she was not likely to be a target on such a tribe.  Then, as I read into the bio, my hopes were dashed.  I’ve tried to be kinder to the pet peeves this season, and give people the benefit of a doubt where they can overcome them, but when your SOLE one is “Dishonest people”?  Yeah, kind of an issue on “Survivor”.  Granted, she’s still going to be around a while given the Kelley Wentworth (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) comparison, if she can pull it off, and the need for athleticism on her tribe means she’s likely to stick around a while, just not a winner pick anymore.  Still, look for her out no earlier than the mid-merge, probably with an immunity run in their somewhere.  

Well, there we go!  With one major exception, pretty likable cast, and for once, firmer predictions than usual!  Overall I’m very satisfied, though not satisfied enough to sit and wait for the season to start to begin blogging.  Be on the lookout for something old, and something new, before the new season begins March 9th!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 41” Finale: Predictably Predictable

Say what you will about this season of “Survivor”.  For all its ups and downs, for all the experiments it never took its eye off the fact that it needed to tell a story.  Particularly in the latter half of the season, the story took precedence, rather than the experimentation, and for that I am grateful.  If nothing else, it made the finale a fun watch.  Bear in mind, though, that a good story is not necessarily an unpredictable story, as this finale, for all of its strong points, may be one of the most predictable ones in recent memory.  

But before I can tell you THAT story, I have to tell you THIS story!  Yes, it wouldn’t be a finale blog without one final edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Pretty brief one this time, but a mess-up nonetheless.  You see, last episode I neglected to mention Deshawn living out one of my dreams, which is to snark back at a Probst catchphrase.  Specifically, when Probst offers the “Candy or Chicken” reward, he asks, as per usual, “Worth playing for?”  Deshawn says “No”, and says he wants family letters instead.  I know he got made fun of for this, but I’d say it was pretty understandable and sympathetic.  Granted, I’ve always wanted to snark more at “Wanna know what you’re playing for?” and “Once again, immunity, back up for grabs”, but that’s just me.  

We start off the true finale with Probst once again talking directly to the audience, though for once, I’m actually ok with it.  It feels like a substitute for the old “season recap with Probst narration”, and therefore more appropriate.  We also replace the “Reason why everyone will win” bit with the contestants building themselves up, which is more natural and does a better job of hiding the true contenders than the former option.  Even the clips of the season being projected on flotsam I can get behind, as it’s just the kind of hokiness I expect from “Survivor”.  I do get a little nervous when Probst talks about “One new twist”, but it turns out he’s just referring to reading the votes and doing a “season recap” on the island instead of live.  Unfortunately, but a necessity due to COVID restrictions, so it’s all good.  

That said, I do have to question the wisdom of removing the recap ENTIRELY.  True, it takes up a lot of time, but for people just tuning in for the finale… Oh, who am I kidding.  No one does that anymore.  No one channel surfs anymore.  Streaming media has not only taken away my best argument for why “Survivor” should leave Fiji once in a while, but now it’s also taken away the need for recaps at the top of episodes.  

Getting back from Tribal, Deshawn is of course in hot water over his “truth bomb”.  In an effort to show what he’s learned, he DOES act humble about the whole thing and admit it wasn’t very good, but the damage is done.  Though the pair make nice the next morning, neither trusts the other.  Contrast with the relationship between Erika and Ricard, which has only strengthened, and Ricard is going to make sure it stays that way.  Recognizing that he’s the biggest threat, Ricard wants to keep someone else on everyone’s mind, and with Deshawn blowing up his game last episode, he is that someone.  Ricard does this, but awkwardly using Deshawn’s proper name as often as possible.  Look, the PRINCIPLE for Ricard is sound, but man is it awkward to see him put it into practice.  

Sadly, my hope for no more advantages, especially in the finale, is dashed, as one final note is given to the contestants.  They must unscramble letters into words, then those words into a sentence, before going off to find said advantage, with the first one to do so getting it.  It’s a decent puzzle, and nice that they put it on screen for everyone at home to play along… IS WHAT I WOULD BE SAYING IF THEY LEFT IT UP THERE FOR MORE THAN 5 SECONDS AT A TIME/  REALLY, WHAT WAS THE POINT?  I will credit it, though, that it did tie into the “Game within the game” aspect.  If you didn’t play along on the website, basically every puzzle you solved, in addition to a question about the next episode, gave you a few letters, which would unscramble to a phrase.  The phrase in this episode, in fact, which is a nice touch.  

Once decoded, the phrase says the advantage is in “dancing trees”.  Erika is the last to solve the phrase, but it matters not, as she finds her advantage in a tree that frankly looks like several other trees out there.  Distinctive in its own way, I guess, but there were trees in the background that looked more like they were “dancing” to me.  Erika’s advantage for once comes with no downside, and is just a challenge advantage at the next immunity challenge.  As it’s not the final challenge, I’m ok with this.  Good for Erika!  

Speaking of said challenge, there’s sadly not much to speak about.  Your usual obstacle course with two puzzle ladders, and a 70+ piece logo puzzle at the end.  Bog standard fare, but it does come with the Joe Del Campo (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”) Memorial Reward of kebabs for two.  Erika’s advantage also turns out to be a bit OP, since half of her ladders are solved already.  This gives her a major lead into the puzzle, one she’s able to keep throughout the challenge.  Yeah, there’s no competition.  In a rare editing misstep, Probst tells us Ricard is close behind, but when we see Ricard, Erika’s puzzle (next to his) is clearly more complete than we just saw at a second ago.  Manipulative editing, folks.  

So Erika’s immune, breaking this season’s streak of those in danger winning immunity.  This spells doom for Ricard, though oddly he doesn’t seem to think so.  When Erika talks to him about how tough the decision is, Ricard starts off saying how it looks like it should be a no-brainer, which sounds like he’s going to show good self-knowledge about his threat level… And then he talks about how Erika hates Deshawn and should vote him out.  Way to go, Ricard.  

Erika does talk about the conflict of her heart, which wants to vote out Deshawn, and her head, which says Ricard must go.  Erika sadly can’t sell it like Shan can, and this is a no-brainer.  Ricard NEEDS to go.  He is, far and away, the biggest jury threat left.  You CANNOT, under any circumstances, keep him in the game, and the show itself is only making a half-hearted attempt to say he might stay.  We need something else to make Tribal more exciting.  

Enter Xander.  For all those saying I was too hard on Xander, and not giving him credit where his credit was due… Well, you’re probably right overall, but this episode does its best to vindicate me in my feelings.  Xander tanks HARD this episode, and while he actually DOES avoid doing a dumb here, he teeters dangerously close.  This being the last night his idol can be played, Xander wants to play his idol, and wants it to matter.  Sadly, he does not have the brains of goddess Angelina of “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, and rather than come up with a convoluted way for him to play his idol correctly, he just wants to play it on Ricard.  Which yes, would be playing an idol correctly, but this is somewhat offset by the fact that YOU KEPT THE BIGGEST JURY THREAT AROUND!  A CORRECT IDOL PLAY DOESN’T MATTER IF THE OUTCOME HURTS YOU IN THE LONG RUN!

But really, this is a feeble attempt at misdirection.  Even I, on my most anti-Xander day, would not accuse him of being that dumb.  Tribal Council doesn’t even try to hide it, with the whole thing just being a Ricard love-fest.  Ricard goes over his life status, and it pulls at the heartstrings, not going to lie.  Ricard even goes full Jeremy Collins on “Survivor Cambodia” in an attempt to stay, talking about how he and his husband are having a second child soon.  Everyone is emotional, but are ultimately ruled by their heads.  

Yes, if the emotional buildup didn’t clue you in, Ricard is gone.  Xander does play his idol, but wisely pays it for himself, just to be safe.  I am, of course, sorry to see Ricard go, as he was one of my favorites the entire season, but for there to be any tension at Final Tribal, he needed to go.  At least he’s a good sport of the way out.  

Back at camp, Xander continues his hot streak of bad ideas, talking about how a little drizzle doesn’t matter to them, even without a shelter on their new beach.  Xander evidently never watched cartoons, as a downpour now commences, and everyone runs for the cover of trees.  Trust me, compared to what we’re going to see later on, this is hardly Xander’s worst mistake.  

First, though, we have to get a GOOD bit of Xander content up in here.  Yes, out of everyone left, Xander is the only one not to yet get some sort of inspirational moment/flashback, and this must be corrected.  Him talking about proving to himself what he could do, coupled with photos of young Xander becoming more athletic, is nice, but it’s too little, too late.  I was willing to spot Danny his moment a few episodes ago, but your in the finale  Too late to do your work now.  

Plus, it kills any chance of anyone but Xander winning final immunity, and deciding who goes to Final Four firemaking, which is regrettably still around.  Also regrettable, our immunity challenge, where players have to spell “Final 3” in blocks while walking on effectively a large bow, and needing to keep everything balanced.  Not because the challenge is bad in and of itself, but because it comes from “Survivor Edge of Extinction”.  If you’re somehow new to the blog, suffice to say that in my opinion, every aspect of that season, save for Rick Devans and Big Wendy, should be expunged from the history of the show.  

Sure enough, Xander wins, and though he makes an effort to talk to everyone left regarding his decision, he doesn’t make a big secret about what he wants to do.  Deciding that he can’t give Erika the “victory” of winning the firemaking challenge (another point against “Survivor Edge of Extinction”: That becoming the meta), Xander is going to send Heather and Deshawn against each other, foreshadowed earlier by Deshawn talking about not wanting to do it.  Of the pair, Heather is set up as the better fire maker, thereby all but ensuring her defeat.  

Honestly, her best chance is Xander doing a dumb, and when Xander sees Erika having trouble starting fire (which I have to assume, given what we’ve seen of her fire-making abilities, was her trying to lower her threat level in that area), he gets just such an idea.  Because we haven’t drawn ENOUGH from “Survivor Edge of Extinction” lately, Xander contemplates giving up immunity to beat Erika in firemaking.  Going full Chris Underwood up in here.  And look, taking out a threat is a big move you can hang your hat on at the end.  Plus, it gives you publicity at arguably the most crucial time.  But the fact remains that you have to give up safety in the game to do so, and YOU SHOULD NEVER GIVE UP SAFETY IN THE GAME OF “SURVIVOR”!  The real thing to remember here, though, is that Xander is acknowledging in this scene that Erika is his biggest competition, a fact that Heather emphasizes. So it makes sense that Xander doesn’t want to give her glory, but guaranteeing her an end spot feels little better.  I can see the logic of Xander wanting to go full Underwood, but it’s flawed.  

Thankfully, even Xander wouldn’t do that.  No, he does something arguably even dumber.  You see, he sticks with his original plan to take Erika to the end with a free pass, and force Heather and Deshawn to fire making.  The flaw?  To lower Erika’s threat, he talks about how he doesn’t think her game is that threatening.  No evidence, no logic, just his opinion.  The flaw here is that the jury clearly is not buying this, and as a result, Xander appears to be either A) Out of Touch, or B) Blatantly Trying to Spin a Lie.  In either case, he’s failing miserably, and tanking his own chances as a result.  

Is there any upside to this Tribal Council?  Yes there is!  We get the awesome music from “Survivor Island of the Idols” back once again!  Hooray!

Credit where it is due, while I still despite forced fire making at Final Four, this is one of the more exciting duels.  It’s not funny, like the super-long one in “Survivor Cook Island”, nor emotional like Aubry vs. Cydney in “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, but it is an actual nail-biter of a challenge.  Heather has the early lead, but while her fire burns a bit of the rope, it doesn’t go through, giving Deshawn just enough time to win by three seconds.  Good for him!  Heather, while nice as a person is probably the least interesting person left, and the biggest finale goat, so better to have her out of the way for our finalists.  

This is all evidenced by our finalists all having good “Why I should win” summaries during the final day montage.  Xander talks about finding his advantages and using them effectively, Erika talks about building up her game from the background to the foreground, and Deshawn… Gives us the “I’ve grown so much” narrative.  Ok, Deshawn’s is a bit weaker, but he was hardly a load in this game, and has something he can at least argue.  

This point is emphasized all the more when Evvie, truly the best jury foreperson, says that everyone there has a shot at some votes, and it’s a tough choice.  And I will say, while I still prefer the old jury format, this is probably the best iteration of the new one yet.  I think it’s the fact that it’s just the jury talking, and Probst doesn’t interject into the proceedings.  It feels more pure, though again, I still prefer the questions, if only for the hilarious ones we get sometimes.  Danny TRIES to go there with his sports “Divide the game into quarters” analogy, which really doesn’t work.  

Sadly, Evvie’s pronouncement does not seem too founded, as the jury clearly favors Erika.  They RIP into Deshawn when he talks up his “social game” and direct most of their specific questions at the other two.  Xander they seem to at least give a chance to persuade them, and a few seem to be in his corner.  Tiffany and Liana seem to ask questions trying to get Xander to talk about his moves in the game, seemingly to give him a chance to prove himself to the jury.  

Here, however, Xander once again falls flat.  When asked to talk about his social game, he says “Um” about a half-dozen times before coming up with a half-baked answer that seems to satisfy pretty much no one on the jury.  Going into this, I had Xander as my number two for win potential.  Had I known that he had the Final Tribal Council skills of Amanda Kimmel (“Survivor China”), I would, of course, have had him lower.  

Unsurprisingly, Erika wins, but we get a definitive second place in Deshawn, who somehow snagged one vote despite largely being shut out of the proceedings.  Presumably Danny voted for him, but I can’t be sure.  In any case, everyone is shocked that the vote is read live, and is then followed immediately by what is effectively our reunion show.  Lights are brought up on the Tribal Council set, and the contestants are given champagne and pizza, the latter of which they must compliment, presumably on threat of losing their prize money.  I imagine the dream team just of camera, checks in one hand, lighters in the other.  

Not much to talk about at our Reunion.  The setting is cool.  They talk with most everyone.  The absence of the pre-jury is felt, though I can understand why they’re not allowed to be there.  Naseer talks about learning English from “Survivor” for the umpteenth time.  We get a lot of emotional beats from the likes of Ricard and Danny.  Plus, there’s no awkward audience participation.  Good stuff.  Loses points, though, for playing “Ancient Voices” during it, which serves only to remind us what we could have been having.  Bring back the intro, CBS!

Season 42 looks fun, though they’re clearly borrowing a lot from this season.  Understandable, but as I’ll get to later, a concern.  First, time for the old “Idol Speculation” staple: Looking back at my pre-season cast assessment and seeing just how off my predictions were!

Sydney-Wrong.  Took after Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) far more than I thought, and rightfully lasted much shorter as a result.  

Danny-Wrong.  Much more flexible and savvier than I had predicted.  

Liana-Pretty much right.  Mid-merge boot, not super memorable.  The feud with Xander was fun, though.  

Brad-Not out QUITE as early as I predicted, but still pretty much right.  

JD-Wrong.  Turns out the dude is only good if he’s got a script to work off of.  

Evvie-Wrong.  They were much better at taking control than I gave them credit for.  

Ricard-Right overall.  He was a threat to win, though somewhat less charming on screen than I expected.  

Shan-Wrong.  Much less religious, and much more game-savvy than I had anticipated.  She lasted longer than I thought, obviously.

Naseer-Right about boot time, wrong about personality.  While he DID talk about overcoming adversity as much as I thought, the dude had the charm to pull it off without getting annoying, which I did not foresee.  

Genie-Sadly right.  

Xander-Wrong.  Despite what this last episode might indicate, the dude was much more game-savvy than I gave him credit for.  

Sara-Wrong, though in fairness, I couldn’t anticipate such a dumb challenge mistake, nor that she would pay the price for it.  

Voce-Wrong.  Much more socially palatable, though oddly much shorter-lived as well.  

Deshawn-Pretty much right, though like Ricard, less charming than I would have thought.  

Tiffany-Wrong, flat out.  

Eric-Wrong.  He just wasn’t made for a faster-paced season like this.  

Heather-Wrong, though had I known tribe makeup beforehand, I would have been closer.  Being on the super-winning all the time tribe will do that.  

Erika-RIGHT!  HAHA!  CHALK UP ANOTHER CORRECT PRE-SEASON PICK FOR “IDOL SPECULATION”, Y’ALL!  

In terms of this season as a whole, the best way I can sum it up is that it succeeds in spite of itself.  For once, I don’t mean it’s a good season with a bad theme (see “Survivor David vs. Goliath”), but rather, production seemed hell-bent on trying to make this season bad, adding twist after poorly-conceived twist after poorly-implemented twist.  While I don’t have data to back this up, but if you were to chart relative enjoyment of each episode by the fanbase with the number of twists and advantages added in a given episode, I suspect you would find an inverse correlation.  To put it another way, the more random shit they crammed into an episode, the less enjoyable the episode.  

Now, I’ve made my opinions on these twist clear, and I’ve made my opinions of the number of them in the season clear.  Equally, production has made their views on these issues clear.  Thus, if production by some miracle happens to be reading this blog, I’m not going to get into a debate with you about whether or how many or what advantages should be in the game.  Clearly you’ve made up your minds, and for the foreseeable future, they’re here to stay.  So, instead, let me make a point about all these advantages and your show, one that even production will have to concede has some validity:

You.  Do.  Not.  Have.  Time.  

Leave aside whether advantages are good for the game, the fact is you simply do not have enough time for all these advantages, and still have a good game.  That inverse correlation I speculated about?  Should it exist, I would hypothesize that it is due not necessarily to the quality of the twist themselves, but to all the time they take up.  Time to introduce the twist.  Time to explain the twist.  Time for someone to find/use the twist.  Other players talking about the twist.  It just eats up precious screen time the show does not have.  As Probst himself used to say, “Ultimately, it is a SOCIAL game”  The show lives and dies on the audience connecting with the cast, and for that, they need time to get to KNOW the cast.  Time you are taking away with all these idols and advantages.  

Now, to be fair, there are two solutions to this.  Reduce the number of advantages in the game, particularly new ones that require in-depth explanation, or have longer episodes.  I would be fine with either option, but let’s be real: While “Survivor” is a consistent show from a ratings perspective, and has gone up due to renewed exposure via online streaming/quarantine, the fact is it is not the ratings juggernaut the early seasons were, and it would need those kind of numbers to justify going to 90 minutes or 2 hours as the standard episode.  I’d enjoy that, but it’s just not realistic.  Realistically, the only solution is to reduce the number of advantages in the game, and while 42 is out the window already, I can hold out hope for 43 and beyond.  Also, NEVER do the “Do or Die” again.  I’ll spot you 42, but after that?  NEVER AGAIN!

So, if time is such a big problem, why does this season still succeed?  Because they had a stellar cast, who managed to shine in SPITE of their reduced time in which to do so  This was overall a very even edit (save for some outliers like Heather being invisible most of the game, and Erika, while she had an obvious winner edit in the second half, being invisible pre-merge), where everyone got at least a bit of content, and we felt like we got to know most of the people on this season.  Credit where it’s due, production did there part as well, as this connection was aided by the “flashbacks” to real life, which I still thoroughly enjoyed.  Still, this cast succeeded DESPITE the obstacles in their path, not because of them.  Consider what would have happened if this cast had been replaced with the cast from a season that’s not great, but not terrible.  You know, just kind of “average”.  Say, for instance, the cast of “Survivor San Juan del Sur” or “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers” had played on this season.  Wouldn’t have stood out nearly as much.  And this is the disaster you court, “Survivor”.  Unless you can have a home-run cast every season, you had best consider cutting back the number of advantages.  

In terms of overall ranking, this season definitely falls in the “good” category.  The twists drag it down, but the cast and some editing choices elevate it.  I would probably put it smack-dab in the middle of my rankings, just below “Survivor The Australian Outback”.  A solid, enjoyable season, but not quite good enough to be one of the all-time greats.  That ranking is nothing to sneeze at, though, and it’s been great getting back into “Survivor” with you all!  As usual we’ll be on hiatus until next season’s cast is announced, so I look forward to hearing from you all then! 

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.