Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 3: A Leg Up

Yeah, yeah, I know it’s a cheap joke, and maybe not in the best of tastes.  But Noelle is kind of a badass in a number of ways this episode, and if the joke is good enough for Chris Daugherty (“Survivor Vanuatu”), then it’s good enough for this blog.  

Reminiscing about Vanuatu aside, we actually can’t start off the blog for this episode just yet.  You see, it’s time once again for another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

This is an incredibly minor one in the grand scheme of things, but since I did make a point to joke about it, I feel compelled to correct myself.  The special area between Jesse and his wife, now shared with Dwight as well, is the “Pineapple ZONE” not the “Pineapple ROOM”.  Again, minor distinction, but I feel the need to mention it nonetheless.  I still say my Spongebob joke holds water, though.  

Trouble abounds in the Pineapple Zone, however, as after Jesse and Cody celebrate everything at the last Tribal Council going their way, Jesse admits that he may have burned the bridge with Dwight by not clueing him in ahead of time as to the outcome of Tribal Council.  No, really, you think?

Sure enough, we see that Dwight is not pleased with Jesse, in talking to Noelle.  Jesse, while still wanting to work with Dwight, admits that the “Divorce Papers” are ready to be signed on his end, if need be.  Dwight, however, is not ready for a full separation yet, though perhaps a trial one.  He admits being burned by Jesse, but expresses hope that they can still work together in the future.  

Now, I’m all for not being too butthurt when you’re on the losing side of Tribal Council, but this may be taking it a step too far.  Don’t blow up at Jesse, certainly, but don’t just put all your hopes on him.  Bond with Noelle to become another tight twosome, and try and convince Cody to go for Jesse, since he’s now proven untrustworthy.  Better yet, if he’ll go for it, try and have Cody let Nneka go for challenge performance,  Then you’ve got the tightest twosome left on the tribe, and you’re set.  About the only overture we see of this for now is Dwight and Noelle becoming tight with each other.  A good start, but they say they hope Jesse goes with them, a strategy that relies too much on Jesse for my liking.  

Over at Dumbass, we see that Gabler is still not doing too well, sleeping on the beach apart from the rest of the tribe.  Per the tribe’s report, this is due to him not handling things well mentally right now.  This, in the eyes of Elie, makes him a liability, and thus she wants him gone next.  However, there is still the wrinkle of the idol, as there’s little doubt that Gabler won’t play it at the next Tribal Council.  He doesn’t seem like the type to hold it for a keepsake or a bluff down the road.  

But what if he didn’t play it?  Elie and Jeanine suggest that, since THEY were confused by the wording on Gabler’s clue before re-reading it, perhaps Gabler could be confused into believing his idol no longer worked.  Thus, in the presence of Sami, they suggest talking to Gabler as though his idol is no longer good, presumably banking on him not, you know, looking at the instructions he has free access to to double-check.  Kind of a flimsy plan, but hey, stranger ones have happened.  Look how many times Shan on “Survivor 41” was able to get her tribe to act against their own self-interest to her benefit?  Spin a tale like that, and there’s a chance it could work.  

Good as Elie is, though, she does not quite have Shan’s charisma, nor is Dumbass tribe as gullible as most of Ua that season, despite my joke name for them.  When Sami asks Gabler about his idol, Gabler correctly notes that it’s good for one more Tribal Council.  Sami then clues Gabler in on the women’s plan, informing him of the search of his bag in the process.  Gabler is infuriated that they went through his bag.  Not sure exactly why, apart from the two supposedly being in an alliance.  That part may be justified, but indignity at the bag search itself, not so much.  This has been staple “Survivor” play since “Survivor The Australian Outback”, and only become more common with the addition of idols and advantages.  Feels to me like most of the stigma went out the window a long time ago.  But hey, Gabler’s the victim here.  He’s entitled to his feelings.  And as Gabler says, he’s not an idiot, and so when Elie enacts her plan, Gabler plays along like he really does think his idol is no good anymore, to Elie’s satisfaction.  All while the men plot their demise.  Why must every psychologist on this show who isn’t Denise Stapley (“Survivor Philippines”) suck?

Things are much more pleasant over at Coco, where James’ birthday is in show.  We even hear a bit of the tribe singing him the “Happy Birthday” song, something I’m amazed the show’s copyright-averse lawyers let through.  Cassidy talks about how things are one big happy tribe, but how that feeling is likely to go at some point.  James even muses about going to the rocks to look for an idol at some point, though Lindsay notes the stigma should anyone leave camp.  And so, they all sit around looking at each other.  Boston Rob (“Survivor Marquesas”) would be proud.  

Of course, things have to change eventually, and Karla spies her chance before long.  Lindsay, Cassidy, and Ryan are all out fishing, while James it taking a nap.  No mention of what Geo is up to, but perhaps since he thinks Karla’s on his side, he doesn’t care.  Either way, Karla goes off idol-hunting, wisely checking all the significant-looking trees.  With what seems very little effort (though admittedly this advantage was more well-hidden than the one on Vesi.  This one was less brightly-colored, as well as higher up the tree.), Karla finds a Beware Advantage, and debates with herself whether to risk it or not.  She describes herself as having played the “slow and steady” game so far, but acknowledges that she needs to take a risk at some point.  She’s just not sure if this is that point and, in a first for the show, puts the Beware Advantage back without opening it.  

I’m of two minds about this decision.  On the one hand, Karla has the LEAST to risk by potentially losing her vote on this tribe.  As the swing vote, it is unlikely that she would be targeted at the first few Tribal Councils this season, barring being a contributing factor to some challenge loss.  True, this does limit her power to determine the outcome, but an idol down the line can make up for that.  Plus, that assumes you’re GOING to Tribal Council, something that doesn’t seem to be on the horizon for Coco yet.  Not a safe assumption, but then you could also argue that it’s going to be a while before even the next immunity challenge, so Karla has the time (and the social capital) to figure things out.  As such, not going for the advantage baffles me from a strategic perspective.  

That said, however, Karla is out there and we’re not.  Perhaps there’s something we’ve not seen that makes Karla feel more at-risk in the tribe, and admittedly Karla has heard no silly phrases at a challenge yet, something she has to assume is still the case, all else being equal.  WE know about the bead thing from last episode, but KARLA doesn’t, and thus must assume she has to work with the other tribes to activate her idol and get her vote back, which she can’t guarantee at this time.  More than this, however, I applaud Karla for making the SMART move for her, not the FLASHY one.  If we assume that Karla has good reason to feel she’s at risk should the tribe lose, then going for the flash is an unnecessary risk.  Look how it nearly torpedoed Cody’s game last episode.  Karla does what she feels is best for her, and it’s hard for me to fault her for that.  Still, it would be a shame if she went back on that because it’s what she thought the audience would want.  

Back from commercial, we check in at Vesi, where the FEELS abound.  Nneka is talking about causes that are near and dear to her heart.  Specifically, she talks about a Nigerian refugee charity she works with.  It’s sweet stuff, and then for mood whiplash, you learn it was BURNED TO THE GROUND by some of the locals.  Jerks.  Anyway, Nneka says that’s what she wants to use her prize money for.  Short stuff, but sweet, and emphasized well by the flashback pictures.  

Can’t go too long without game talk, however, as Karla has decided to go BACK on what she said, and will instead do what she would tell someone on the tv to do.  Look, I’m all for changing your mind if you realize you did a dumb, and maybe that’s what Karla did but from what we’re shown, it’s her thinking like a viewer, rather than a player.  Fun for us, but from a strategy perspective, I can’t condone it.  First, Karla has a conversation with James about whether he would go for a Beware Advantage or not.  James kind of waffles, which Karla takes as a “go ahead” sign.  Why James isn’t immediately suspicious of this line of questioning, I don’t know, but the dude does appear to be half-asleep.  I’ll cut him the benefit of a doubt.  So, Karla finds out about the bead thing, and it’s not as natural for her as it was for Cody.  

Luckily for Karla, James was making a bracelet in relation to his birthday earlier, giving Karla the excuse to copycat the idea for her wife’s supposed birthday (which is actually in February).  James gives up his bead no problem, but Geo is oddly resistant to the idea.  Karla needs to trade him a bunch of her beads to get his one that she needs, but he does acquiesce in the end.  Still, this makes her believe she needs a different tack with Lindsay and Cassidy.  I’d say you could just come clean to them, to help save their alliance, but given that she didn’t with James, I guess she wants to keep the idol a secret, which I can’t fault too much.  Karla ends up trading an earring apiece to the women for their bead, which should throw up IMMEDIATE red flags for them!  Those were nice earrings!  Probably not too expensive, but giving up such a personal item for something so random as a bead seems, at best, problematic.  The women seem to buy it, though, so that just leaves Ryan.  

Like Geo, Ryan is reluctant to part with his beads.  Karla tries to do a “we’re exchanging keepsakes” thing, but when Ryan is only willing to offer her one of his socks (which, after a week without bathing, ew), she has to change tactics again.  This should ALSO make Ryan suspicious, but given that Karla’s tactic is to offer him something nice for his girlfriend in exchange, he eventually gives it up.  Thus, Karla has her vote back, and an idol no one knows about.  Not pulled off as flawlessly as Cody’s, but it seems to get the job done, and it’s tough to argue with results.  No matter how much you want to.  

Our challenge today is a carbon-copy of a couple of elements from “Survivor 42”.  Pretty sure some of the structures on the platforms are repainted ones from that season even.  Three tribe members swim to retrieve keys, one at a time.  They bring them to a platform, where the other two players use them to unlock a turtle puzzle they must solve.  The first two tribes to do so win immunity, as well as varying amounts of tools and fruit.  As standard and boring a challenge as you get in this era of the show.  

Even our misdirection can’t help us much.  I’ve seen weaker on the show, but this is not that great.  The trouble is two of our tribes, Dumbass and Vesi, have gotten strategic content this episode, while Coco has not.  Not a huge issue, so long as Coco dominates the challenge, but no!  They’re behind for most of it.  Thus, when Dumbass cruises to an easy victory, it’s clear Vesi is going back to Tribal Council, despite Coco being behind.  Once again, Nneka flubs the puzzle (and given she was the only common element in both puzzle portions, it’s clearly on her this time), just standing there watching while Coco pulls away.  

Really, the only cool part of this challenge was Noelle.  As she had to be on the swimming portion, and as we established that she can’t take her prosthetic in the water, she must go one-legged.  Not too bad overall but it will make one particular obstacle (getting up a series of crate stares before diving in) difficult.  Noelle, however, pulls it off effortlessly, or at least with no more effort than anyone else doing the challenge, and that’s pretty cool.  

But now, Dumbass must make a choice, choosing one person from each tribe to go off somewhere, presumably whatever the equivalent of “Shipwheel Island” is called this season, with each coming back before the next Tribal Council.  They choose Noelle from Vesi and James from Coco, while Owen volunteers for their own tribe.  As Owen is really the only one they have information on at this point, and he’s nominally on both sides (aligned with the men, but the women think he’s on board against Gabler), can’t fault them for not objecting too hard.  The gentlemen are kind enough to help Noelle hop one-legged into the boat, and I certainly hope that they’ll let her grab a new prosthetic before the island.  I don’t doubt James and Owen would be willing to help her, and the hike to the rock is not DIFFICULT per se, but doing it one-legged?  Brutal.  

Emotions remain the order of the day at Vesi.  Nneka breaks down about Noelle being the next to go, mostly because she’s not at camp to defend herself.  Everyone else, however, breaks down about the need to vote off Nneka.  While I don’t believe in making your tribe stronger by voting someone off (addition by subtraction, if you will), since there’s no guarantee anyone would do BETTER on a puzzle than Nneka, it can’t be denied that she’s earned a potential vote-off this episode after repeated poor challenge performance.  It may not help Vesi, but it certainly will hurt them the least in terms of challenges.  They also note that they have no more doubts about Noelle’s ability to perform in challenge.  You had doubts?  The woman’s a PARALYMPIAN for crying out loud!  Challenge performance from her should be the least of your concerns.  

Emotionally?  That’s another matter.  Nneka is the team mom that everyone likes.  Her boot is seen by nearly all as a cruel necessity.  Only Cody is on the fence, since Nneka is his ride-or-die.  Really, Cody’s the only one who shouldn’t want Nneka gone.  For Dwight and Noelle, they stay safe despite being the technical minority, while getting rid of Nneka keeps Jesse’s options open.  In his mind, he and Dwight are the power couple against the individuals of Cody and Noelle in this scenario.  Little downside for him.  

Over at The Island Formerly Known As “Shipwheel Island”, we see that production did deign to let Noelle put on another prosthetic.  Good thing too, since the island is going back to its roots and having them hike up a huge hill, something that, while not impossible, would probably have violated the Geneva convention if forced to be done missing one leg.  Noelle goes over the backstory of her leg, and again, can’t complain.  Relevant to what’s happening on screen.  

This trip really is Noelle’s time to shine.  The parchment before the hike tells them to get to know one another, but we really only see Noelle talking.  At first I’m inclined to dock her points for spilling the beans to people she barely knows, but she is on the bottom, and she doesn’t actually give away that much.  She doesn’t tell the alliances, but only truthfully says she was left out of the vote.  This serves to make her seem, not unfairly, like a free agent, and so the men are open to working with her come the merge.  Of course, they should say yes regardless, but it’s still decent maneuvering on her part.  She may not get much in return, but she hasn’t given away as much as it would seem at first blush.  

Oh, and nice though this alliance is, I have no faith that it will last.  These gunshot alliances fail more often than they succeed.  Our closest equivalent last season would be the Hai/Drea/Lindsay one, and look how well that turned out.  

The hike may have changed, but the mechanism remains the same.  Everyone picks risk or not risk, those risking drawing a parchment out of a corresponding bag that either had an advantage or a lost vote.  Sensing a need (so perhaps she doesn’t have as much faith in Jesse as it seemed), Noelle asked the men to forgo their shot so she can have a chance to make it through and work with them.  This is a no-brainer for Owen.  With the men needing all the numbers they can get, he can’t afford to risk his vote.  As he wasn’t going to risk anyway, why not get at least a good relationship for the future out of it?  James is a bit more complex, since, as a part of a solid majority where his vote is not strictly necessary, he COULD risk his vote, and it might be better for his game long-term to have an advantage.  Still, he’s in a solid position either way, and it’s hard to fault him too much for not wanting to rock the boat, even with two people he’s just met.  Noelle gets her parchment and all head back to camp.  

After offering to be searched, which no one takes her up on, Noelle reveals it would not have mattered anyway.  Her advantage was hidden in her prosthesis, good for her.  It’s no Kellee Kim Bun Hiding Place from “Survivor Island of the Idols”, but it’s a good one.  Less good is her advantage.  A vote steal, where Gabler got an idol.  True, she doesn’t know what Gabler has, this is still useful, and at least has the edge of not being time-limited that we hear.  This does make me wonder what determines the advantage, though.  I could see it being a “each trip is a different advantage” thing, but I could also see it being determined by the number of people who risk.  Only one person risking gets a relatively weak advantage, two gets stronger but time-limited, and three gets stronger than that type of thing.  Either is plausible, and I’m curious whether this will be clarified in further episodes.  

The one drawback to Noelle denying risking her vote and getting any advantage is that, come the time to use it.  That could potentially be soon, since Noelle could still be on the bottom.  Tribal Council, however, throws that possibility out the window.  With the somber tone, there’s little doubt that the person people like more will be gone, which is Nneka in this scenario.  The only individual moment worth commenting on is the rare bit of levity.  As a political science student, Jesse becomes living at the horrible scale his tribe uses when discussing their levels of nervousness.  

Yeah, misdirection is not this episode’s strong suit, and Nneka goes without Noelle needing to use her idol.  I’m mixed on this.  It was definitely the smart move, but while I don’t dislike Noelle, I just found Nneka more interesting, so I am sorry to see her go.  She takes it all with good grace, but it’s sad nonetheless.  

And that really hits at this episode’s strength: The emotion.  While not missing, the misdirection was lackluster at best, and with the shortened time frame from the past two episodes, coupled with time devoted to The Island Formerly Known As “Shipwheel Island”, we didn’t get a ton of strategy talk, and what we got was very uneven.  The show worked with what it had, though, and you really felt the weight of each moment, and the pain our contestants were going through.  Thus, while perhaps not as strong as the previous episodes, this one was still solid and gripping.  A good episode, and we hope for more and better in the future.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 2: Wife Swap

Not the next show I was expecting to cross over with “Survivor”, but hey, we’re no stranger to cross-promotion in this fandom.  “Amazing Race”, “Big Brother”, there’s a good bit of reality tv crossover.  Even non-reality tv crossover if you want to count Lisa Welchel’s appearance on “Survivor Philippines” as one for “The Facts of Life”.  And hey, trashy as it is, I’ve watched the show once or twice.  I can give this a chance.  

Despite a unified vote, there is a bit of… I hesitate to say “drama”, so perhaps “tension” is the proper word, after Tribal Council.  Owen, it seems, was not fully prepared for his name being thrown out.  I assume he thought Morriah would target Gabler or something?  Owen discusses nearly pooping his pants, but manages to avoid doing so, meaning Stephen Fishbach’s “poop pants” crown, as bestowed upon him by Abi-Maria during “Survivor Cambodia”, remains his.  Much to his chagrin, I’m sure.  In any case, Owen handles the tension fairly well, referring to Tribal Council as a trust exercise, which Gabler concurs with after his challenge performance the previous episode.  Everyone agrees to try and work together again, and all go to bed happy.  

Waking up, the tribe is less happy.  There was a fairly harsh storm, and it seems their roof is not quite up to scratch, leaving them soaked.  Hard for anyone, but Owen tells us it seems to be hardest on Gabler, who is starting to flag health-wise.  Given how tough the guy looks in general, I’d feel like this wouldn’t hurt him that bad.  Gabler shares my sentiment, but admits that Owen is right.  It seems like they’re leaning into medevac territory, but after a few hours’ rest, Gabler gets back up, and we move on with a reminder of the toughness of the “Survivor” elements.  

Enough feel-good moments, it’s time for strategy!  And Vesi can bring that strategy, as we now take the time to get clarification on what we had speculated about last time.  Justine and Noelle had come up as a firm pair, with Cody, Nneka, and Jesse forming the “anti-salesperson” alliance.  No one seemed to be talking to Dwight, which Jesse confirms.  However Jesse, not being an idiot, realizes this puts him in the middle of two pairs, making him third no matter what.  A person to become part of a pair with him would be ideal, and Dwight’s the only person left.  The pair agree to work together, with Jesse even comparing Dwight to his wife, in a person he can trust and confide in wholesale.  This leads Dwight into giving his backstory, talking about interviewing various politicians at a young age.  It’s the first of a few backstories we’ll be getting tonight, and probably the weakest out of all of them.  The segue is less natural, basically a case of “Dwight is talking strategy, so I guess we’ll talk about his backstory now.”  While a nice moment, it doesn’t hit as hard as the other moments we’ll be getting this episode.  That said, the pictures of little kid Dwight are adorable, so I’ll still say this was a net positive.  

Back to strategy talk, Dwight is big on the “Get Cody out” idea.  Dwight’s reasoning is that Cody is an unpredictable element, as evidenced by his desire to jump from various rocks into the ocean, despite said rocks appearing to be a decent distance from the shoreline.  Jesse, however, is less keen on this plan, reasoning that Cody’s “unpredictability” is related to him having fun, rather than anything directly game-related.  This is back up by the fact that, when we DO see Cody jump off a rock, it’s not the ones he seemed initially to be pointing to, but one more clearly jutting out over the water, and thereby being much safer.  Between the two, I’m inclined to agree with Jesse’s logic here.  Much as I’m normally the first person to say “Vote out the chaotic player!”, Jesse’s point that Cody’s chaos is unrelated to his strategic game is correct, at least for the moment.  Granted, either choice keeps the pair in a good position, as long as they’re united, but Jesse has more of an “in” with this foursome, and thus more room to maneuver things to the pair’s advantage.  If Dwight had a similar “in” with Noelle and Justine, I could see it, but as it stands, going with the Cody/Nneka pair seems smarter for now.  

There’s also the fact that Justine annoys Jesse.  I’m sure this is true, but the show doesn’t do the greatest job of backing this up with evidence.  Granted, annoyance is a subjective thing, but the “annoying thing” Justine does mostly consists of her being on the lookout for, and freaking out about, spiders.  Not the best thing to be creeped out by when on an otherwise deserted island, but also a pretty common and natural fear, and it’s not like Justine goes into a panic at the drop of a hat.  It’s more of a hyper-vigilance than anything that seems like an overreaction.  That said, her comments about the shelter make Jesse’s feelings more understandable, mostly due to how they’re presented.  Justine has a suggestion for making the shelter more comfortable, which on paper sounds fine.  Crucially, though, she doesn’t offer to HELP make said improvements, and spends the time combing her hair.  Comes off looking a bit selfish on her part, but again, we’ve seen worse.  Makes more sense than the spider thing, though.  

Karla gives us our Coco tribe strategy recap.  She notes the girl’s alliance, plus James, going against the duo of Ryan and Geo.  Despite her seeming conflict last time, she comes right out and says she’s leaning towards the former alliance, due to the bond Ryan and Geo seem to have.  Gone is the bond with her and Geo, I guess?  This does lead to a feel-good moment between the latter pair, as they find an almond tree, and start trying to break into the nuts.  This is somewhat more difficult than with the store-bought ones, but it does give Geo the opportunity to talk about the hardship’s he’s overcome in life.  We got hints of it last episode, but this is a full-blown backstory/flashback.  

Basically, Geo became homeless at age 18, after coming out to his parents.  The details of his struggle aren’t known, but he made it through, and says he’s in a good place right now.  We even get a cute shot of him and who I presume is the husband he mentioned together on a pier.  A well-transitioned scene, and one that tugs well at the heartstrings.  What I particularly like is how Geo talks about his struggles mentally.  After quoting statistics about suicide rates amongst the LGBTQ+ community he admits, almost clinically, that he did consider committing suicide himself.  He also talks about how he worked through by looking for the good in his life.  One might argue his way of discussing it lacked emotion, but I thought it still came across, yet did not descend into melodrama, as something like this easily could, and I appreciate that.  An open, honest discussion of these issues without needing to “milk” them for extra drama can only help, and I am very glad the show included this particular scene.  

Backstories abound over at Vesi as well.  We first get some detail into the struggles of having a prosthesis on the island, as Noelle struggles to get a good seal on it when putting it on in the morning.  This leads to Cody asking about the inner workings it has, which Noelle obliges.  Cody is not just interested in the leg for the novelty, though.  He tells us that he lost a good friend (who gets nicely memorialized in flashback) to a cancer that started in the leg in high school.  This, Cody tells us, is why he’s so focussed on having a good time all the time.  Sweet stuff, only slightly pampered by the slightly awkward transition to it.  Yeah, bot stories are about a leg, but there’s a difference between an amputee and a death.  Both tragic in their own way, but not the same thing.  

Rather than flash back to his own backstory, Owen on the Dumbass tribe flashes back to previous seasons.  After referring to himself as a “lovable curmudgeon” (which is the official title of this episode, but NOT who I thought would be getting it), Owen then adds to himself the title of “Junior Deputy Water Boy”, which I’m willing to be is an intentional call back to Rob Cesternino calling himself “Junior Deputy Firewood Bitch” on “Survivor The Amazon”.  Fun moment, but not much else comes of it in and of itself.  

Dumbass tribe is not without strategy, however.  While Owen is off getting the water, Jeanine and Elie are off looking for advantages.  They come up empty, but waste little time, talking strategy instead.  They debate which guy to pull in as their third.  I thought they had settled on Sami at this point but hey, keep the options open, I guess.  They do still settle on Sami, in the end.  Gabler is left out of the discussion entirely, and they find Owen too “needy” to have along.  I’d say Sami is better in challenges, and younger and thereby more easily led, but hey, hard to argue with results.  

That said, the results don’t look the greatest for them.  Giving some more insight into why they were willing to cut Morriah last episode, the women talk about how the men don’t seem to be playing the game very well, and aren’t really talking strategy with one another.  Indeed, this seems to be the case at first, as we get Sami and Gabler chatting about impressions and hurling coconuts as Owen returns from gathering water.  However, we then see that the women have underestimated the men.  With Owen back, they indeed agree to stick together against a possible women’s alliance.  Sami admits feeling kind of scummy about it.  Normally I’d agree, since a “women’s alliance” is a boogeyman that has unfairly tanked the games of many a good player, but in this case, since there actually IS such an alliance that’s fairly obvious to all, it’s less scummy in this case.  

No beating around the bush.  Out immunity challenge is one copied wholesale from “Survivor Game Changers”, save for a logo puzzle replacing the ring toss ending.  Tribes will untie a snake from a cage in the water, then bring it ashore, dragon it through some obstacles until it’s on a platform.  They will then release the numbers for a combination lock, which will unlock puzzle pieces for two tribe members to solve.  First two tribes to finish win immunity, as well as various amounts of fishing gear, with first place naturally getting more.  Dumbass tribe, as one would expect, is also playing to earn their flint back.  Honestly, as bad as the season it comes from was, this is a decent challenge, and while it doesn’t change anything about it, the amount of detail on the snake is a nice touch.  

Our sit outs bear some mentioning, since both strike me as a bit odd.  Karla is the sit-out for Coco, and while she’s by no means the challenge beast of her tribe, it certainly seems like she’d be helpful in hauling the snake around.  Granted, this would take Lindsay or Cassidy, the other presumed sit-out options, off the puzzle, and maybe Karla’s not great at puzzle, but no one said Karla HAD to do the puzzle.  Keep the one of Lindsay or Cassidy on the puzzle, and put James in!  I’m sure that chess master brain could come in handy.  

Noelle at first blush also seems an odd choice, as she appears on the more athletic end of Vesi, but as she will later explain, the prosthesis she happened to have on was not good for the water, so her sit-out makes more sense.  That said, I still mention her because she may be one of the most animated sit-outs we’ve yet had on the show.  Assuming there’s no advantage to be found, most sit outs just sit there quietly.  A few sulk, like Michaela on “Survivor Game Changers”.  A few give worried looks, like Cirie’s memorable one on this very challenge of “Survivor Game Changers”.  Cheerleaders about, perhaps most memorably of late Tony on “Survivor Winners at War”.  But Noelle is one of the few to actively look pissed.  Seems odd, given that she agreed to sit out, but a fun change of pace nonetheless.  

Going into this challenge, there’s actually quite good mystery as to who goes!  All three tribes have had some strategy content (Coco perhaps less so with the lack of multiple targets, but it’s not like they got zero content), and all seem at least somewhat plausible.  Always a good thing, this mystery is particularly necessary this episode, as despite Probst’s exhortations about comebacks, the tribes stay in the same position the whole challenge.  Dumbass tribe has the lead, proving their name to be non-indicative by performing well on the puzzle, with Coco in second.  Despite Vesi having the bring idea to take off their buffs as reference for the logo puzzle, a seeming dip in energy by Dwight and Nneka on the puzzle, and Nneka missing a piece in a bag, lead to their loss.  They forfeit their flint, and we get an angry confessional about how Nneka in particular needs to go for messing up the puzzle, thereby ensuring that Nneka will stay.  

Cody plays the diplomat back at camp, assuring the tribe that it’s no one person’s fault that they lost.  Noelle and Justine are quick to throw that out the window, insisting that it was Nneka’s fault.  Seems like Dwight could share at least some of the blame, but they focus on the missing piece in the bag, which did fall squarely on Nneka, who opened said bag.  Plus, they probably want to work with Dwight down the line.  Cody and Nneka, of course, are not up for this, and with Jesse agree to target Justine, for being on the weaker side, plus the aforementioned annoyance.  Thus, the battle lines are drawn.  

This was an extra-long episode, however, and we’re going to use that time for foreshadowing and strategizing for those who DIDN’T lose this challenge.  Dumbass tribe is, of course, very happy to have a victory under their belts.  Elie in particular gloats about how smart this makes her feel, since she struggled in school due to an ADHD diagnosis.  All well and good, and certainly apropos of the moment, but this DID get a bit into the melodrama for me.  Don’t get me wrong, Elie has every right to be happy with her performance on the puzzle, but to say it was more impressive than earning one’s doctorate?  No.  

The tribe is also very happy to have their fishing gear, though most admit they don’t know how to use it.  Gabler claims to have spear-fused before, but upon later questioning states that he’s never specifically used a Hawaiian sling before.  Calling two things right now: Gabler will lose the spear at some point, and in the same episode, Rupert Boneham (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) will swim all the way from Indiana to berate Gabler for “killing his spear”.  

As to the “strategizing” part of this, we here get confirmation that Gabler is on the outs, as Jeanine and Elie celebrate his idol no longer being good, believing that it was only for two Tribal Councils, whether Gabler attended or not.  This was not how I interpreted the clue, and the pair wisely decide to double-check.  With Gabler out fishing, and with Owen to run deflection when he comes back, Jeanine searches through Gabler’s bag.  Finding the clue, she confirms that indeed, it’s the next two Tribals Gabler ATTENDS for which the idol’s active, meaning he’s still technically safe.  Of course, Dumbass tribe is immune, so this gets tabled for now, but will likely be a wrench in their plans down the road.  

Back on Vesi, it’s down to Dwight and Jesse to determine which side to go with.  Dwight still wants to stick with the ladies, and get out Nneka for her challenge performance, while Jesse advocates for getting out Justine, citing her as a “good actor”, which we see she did tell him in flashback.  Not helping matters is Justine straight up TELLING Jesse she doesn’t want to get “hoodwinked” by him, indicating the lack of trust.  I gave my thoughts on this debate before, and at this point, nothing’s changed.  As a pair, it’s better to go with the Cody/Nneka pair, since you have slightly more agency and flexibility from what we’ve seen.  That said, despite going to what Jesse calls his and his wife’s “Pineapple Room” (evidently Jesse’s family loves “Spongebob Squarepants”), they can’t come to an agreement.  Dwight, of course, can’t vote, so Jesse says he’ll go his own way if he must.  Only something incredibly stupid could screw up this plan now.  

Oh look, there goes Cody doing something stupid.  Maybe Dwight had a point about his unpredictability…

To be more specific, Cody goes looking for an idol or advantage, and finds the “Beware Advantage”.  Now, he knows what this is.  The man admits to having seen the past two seasons.  Even if he doesn’t think it’ll be EXACTLY the same, he should recognize the potential pitfall here.  But no, Cody does the (admittedly in-character) thing of opening it without thinking.  Shock of all shocks, he loses his vote!  Gee, that’s not crucial at all with the numbers this low!

If the Beware Advantage worked exactly the same way it did the past two seasons, Cody would be screwed.  Since the mechanism for unlocking the idol would happen at challenges, with the challenge over, he would have no way to get it back before Tribal Council.  Luckily for Cody, the team has changed things up.  This time, he must get six specific beads, one from the bag of each member of the tribe (including himself), willingly given to him in order to get his vote back and activate his idol.  I’m of two minds about this.  On the one hand, I applaud the show for changing it up, and getting rid of the hokey phrases I never personally bought into.  I also like the mechanic of gaining the beads, in principle.  Collecting small items to power up a bigger one feels very “Indiana Jones”-esque, which I always enjoy seeing brought into the show.  What holds me back from a full-throated endorsement is how limiting this feels.  And don’t get me wrong, the phrases were limiting as well, but pulling that off had to do with one’s acting ability.  In this case, about the only plausible lie is some sort of arts-and-crafts project, so if you’re not the sort of person who normally does that, it’s going to look VERY suspicious if you suddenly start doing so.  

Here’s an idea: Keep the bead mechanic, but have it POWER UP the idol instead.  Say, each bead you get makes the thing good for one extra Tribal Council.  You start with your own, making it good for one Tribal, but each subsequent bead adds a Tribal.  Keeps the social element, but prevents you from having to talk to EVERYONE, potentially giving away what you’re doing.  You can still have them lose their vote, but make the mechanism for getting the vote back separate from the bead mechanic.  

Luckily for Cody, he IS the sort of person who can pull off the “arts and crafts” gambit, since we saw that he weaved hats from palm fronds earlier.  On top of that, Cody also pulls off a really good, but subtle pressure campaign on the rest of the tribe, with the help of Nneka and Jesse, whom he’d informed of the problem earlier.  Cody starts weaving his beads into his hat around the campfire with everyone present.  He starts by asking Jesse and Nneka for their beads, who of course give them.  The smart thing about this is that it puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the tribe to follow the example.  If you refuse as the first person asked, no one’s going to look askance.  If others have already given theirs first, you look like more of an asshole, and are thus more inclined to agree to fit in.  It’s a brilliant bit of psychology of Cody’s part, to be honest.  

About the only hitch is Noelle, who likes the idea of making stuff with the beads, and wants to keep hers for a bracelet.  Thus, we’re not sure of the outcome for Cody as we head off to Tribal, and get a better look at our torches for the season.  They have hand bones on the sconces, which is a nice touch.  While not going down in history as one of the best ever to happen, there’s a lot of solid strategy talk, and even some humor.  Nneka talks about the emotional expressiveness of Nigerians, warning Probst away from being near them when watching “Survivor”.  Bringing the “wife” thing back up, Jesse fake proposes to Dwight, even getting down on one knee.  Cody is the one to merge the humor and the strategy, talking about his funky hat, but then noting that one person won’t be around to get one after tonight.  He is a nice guy, though, so he promises to make one for whoever is voted off anyway.  

Most of our tension is centered around whether Cody has a vote or not, such that we even cut to commercial after the votes are cast, but before Probst gets them.  Then we find out that Cody was successful, a good play undercut only slightly by the fact that his vote actually wouldn’t have mattered.  Fearing a successful Shot in the Dark play, Justine threw a vote on Cody.  Normally a good strategic move, but one that meant her pairing with Noelle had no shot at winning.  Even if Cody was unsuccessful, Nneka’s and Jesse’s votes would have been enough.  

The big loser move of the night, however, goes to Jesse.  For all the praise I’ve given the guy, for all the smart moves he’s made, he made a huge mistake here.  Why did he not TELL Dwight what he was going to do.  Look, I get he wanted it to be a joint effort, and I get that Dwight was not on board with keeping Nneka, but why have him be blindsided by the outcome?  Frame it as “Look man, I know what you want, but this is better for us long-term, trust me.”  That way you KEEP your tight pairing, rather than risk it for… Basically no reason.  

All this to say that I’m not sorry to see Justine go.  She didn’t have a whole lot that made her interesting, and while probably not as annoying as Jesse made out, she didn’t bring much to the table.  For Jesse, as detailed previous, she’s also probably the smart move, so can’t really fault that.  Even if I can fault blindsiding Dwight.  

On the whole, very good episode!  There’s a few bits I could nitpick, in particular that based on timing it was decently easy to predict the outcome of Tribal Council, but the show worked with what it had to deliver an entertaining product with good strategy and humor throughout.  May not be one of the greats, but I’ll happily consume a solid “Survivor” episode any day!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 1: Back to the Debbie Well

When a show has been going on for over 20 years, usually doing 2 seasons per year, it stands to reason that beats are going to remind you of what came previously from time to time.  When that happens, the temptation to lean in and exaggerate those moments is great.  Such is the case tonight, where we return repeatedly to the well of comedy that is Debbie Wanner (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  And even bearing in mind that context, I can’t blame the producers for returning to that particular well.  It may not be deep, but it is certainly flavorful.  

My dear readers, it is my intense pleasure to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that EVERYONE is entitled to!  And Probst certainly wants us to like these contestants!  We get his usual narration about the game of “Survivor” and what it means, but this time, it’s more focussed on getting out people’s backstories and play styles.  I know they’ve been doing this a lot for more recent seasons, but they front loaded this one in particular.  I swear, about half the cast gave at least a taste of their thoughts right at the start.  Ryan talks about being born with and through physical therapy overcoming his mild cerebral palsy, Noelle talks about her leg, Karla mentions her upbringing, Morriah talks about making friends, then using those friends to win the million, you get the picture.  

Special mention, though, goes to Owen talking about wanting to see his shot in the introduction, something most fans can relate to.  The editors, not missing a beat, give him an intro shot.  Great, but still not enough.  Bring back the full intro, you cowards.  You certainly have the time to do so.  I won’t be talking about each flashback in detail right now, partly because there are so many, partly because most of them will get a rehash later in the episode anyway.  

What I will talk about is the use of flashbacks for characterization as a whole.  A holdover from the past two seasons, this has been somewhat divisive amongst the fanbase.  Some feel that it helps build a deeper bond with the players, and is a contributing factor to the casts being the biggest strength of the past two seasons.  Others feel that it comes across as forced, and so doesn’t do the job of connecting us to the players that it is supposed to.  I fall more into the former camp, even bearing in mind what I’m about to say.  Much as I like the flashback backstories, they largely don’t work in this episode.  Mainly it’s the timing that’s the issue.  We frontload them so that they overload us and blend together, and the ones we DO get largely have only the most tenuous of connection to the conversation at the time.  I still come down on the “like them” side as a whole, but this episode is not the way to sell the viewing audience on the idea.  

Oh, and it also gets rid of the iconic “39 days, 18 people, 1 Survivor!” that Probst used to end off his narration with.  Granted, the permanent move to 26 days also did that, but I can only complain about one thing at a time.  

On the beach proper, Probst does his usual spiel about the game of Survivor and what it means.  We hear from the superfans how much it means to be here.  Mike Gabler, hereinafter referred to as Gabler, talks about the show being bonding for his family.  Jeanine talks about her father falling in love with the show after emigrating from China.  Pretty standard stuff, but all of it competent and enjoyable.  Really, the only noteworthy thing here is that we get, in a montage, a shot of our snuffer this season, and it is EPIC!  Fitting with the logo, the main motif is “octopus”, a carving of one flowing almost organically over the top of the snuffer.  It gets the “Idol Speculation” seal of approval.  That seal means nothing, but feels good to give out nonetheless.  

Probst also takes this time to inform our players of their tribe names, Vesi, Coco, and Dumbass.  Everyone is naturally excited by this, and it underlines a change I had NOTICED, but hadn’t commented on until now: The removal of tribe names from buffs.  Something that had been standard starting with “Survivor Nicaragua”, and something that I overall didn’t like.  Apart from it implying that the viewers were morons who couldn’t differentiate tribes without a label (assuming they weren’t colorblind), it also made the buffs for a season feel less cohesive overall, since naturally the merge buff could not have a name printed.  In the long run this was not worth complaining about, especially since the names were rarely legible because of the way people wear buffs anyway, but still, happy this has finally been rectified.  

On to our first challenge, as per usual for supplies at camp.  Two tribe members run off to untie boxes in the jungle, then bring them back.  Two more people then race out to untie and drag to shore a boat with more boxes, which the whole tribe brings back to a pole.  The last two left then assemble said boxes into a large cube, which one tribe member climbs on to use a stick of bamboo to get a flint off an inclined bamboo pole, the first to do so winning said supplies.  Pretty standard first challenge fair, though I will give props to the puzzle on this one.  “Make a cube” puzzles are old hat for the show at this point, but I like how there’s no obvious “inside” and “outside” to these pieces.  It’s all geometry, and I like that for a puzzle.  

For all my predictions that Vesi is going to utterly dominate this season challenge-wise, this challenge is actually quite close (and has a sweet swooping drone shot to boot).  Coco is slightly behind on the crate carrying portion, largely due to Geo needing to roll his crate along while everyone else carries theirs, but they make up good ground on the boat portion, and actually finish their puzzle first, largely thanks to James, though Lindsay is certainly also a contributing factor.  Working the bamboo sticks proves unwieldy, though, and the other teams catch up.  Vesi pulls out the win anyway, thanks to them informing Dwight that he can stick the flint in the hole the stick for better grip, and Dwight following through, but it was not the level of blowout of, say, Taku in most challenges last season that I was expecting.  

Vesi is of course celebratory back at camp, but also take the time to do introductions.  Here we’re learn about Cory’s carefree Hawaiian lifestyle and Nneka’s history having grown up in Nigeria.  Dwight wants to get moving on his “Survivor” experience, however, and that means it’s shelter-building time!  The flaw in that plan, however, is that in order to build a shelter, you need to know how to build a shelter, something no one on this tribe cops to knowing.  This will become more pronounced later, but as Vesi will demonstrate, having supplies does you little good if you don’t know how to use them.  

For our other tribes, they of course have to “earn” their supplies, as is the norm in this “new era” of “Survivor”.  And what creative new dilemma has the show come with for our tribes?  What new and intriguing quandary will our players face this time around?  

Savvy or Sweat.  Again.  Yeah, strap in folks, this is going to be a problem for this episode as a whole.  For all that it does draw in the viewer, and will change some details, as we’ll discuss, this season feels like it at least copies format from the past few seasons.  This makes the season feel like a cheap rehash, not a good look for the longevity of the show.  

Now, the twist is copied wholesale in broad strokes alone.  A choice between a more mental challenge that everyone gets to work on, but only gives you a limited number of guesses (in this case one, in keeping with “Survivor 41”, as opposed to the two of “Survivor 42”), and a physical challenge that separates two people from the tribe.  Like I said, though, it’s the details that make this new and different.  The puzzle is obviously not going to be triangles again.  In this case, the tribe has a number of bones arranged to make a large number.  Moving exactly two bones, they must make the largest number they can, placing said bones to make new numbers.  More changed up, though, is our “Sweat” option.  Instead of a physical task that has a set point of completion, two tribe members dig in a set area, trying to find a bag of supplies within a set time limit.  Despite my kvetching, this is honestly a decent change-up.  I think it would do a lot to help avoid the perception of being a carbon copy if they had just changed the name.  It doesn’t even fit as well, since the “Sweat” option is less about physical effort, and more about luck/search techniques.  Perhaps a “Luck vs. Skill” name instead?

Dumbass tribe is up first.  After Gabler reminds us of his age and the problems this presents in bonding with his tribe, Sami, our young guy, is initially very gung-ho about doing the “Sweat” option.  This makes Owen, the other young strong guy on the tribe, nervous, throwing him into the “Voce roll” of trying to push his tribe towards the option that puts less pressure on him individually.  As Owen is overall better at the game than Voce, he actually succeeds, and his tribe begins to work out the “Savvy” puzzle.  

Coco, meanwhile, has jumped immediately on the “Sweat” option.  This is largely at the urging of Geo, who says that his tribe is not a brain trust.  Seems a bit rich coming from the guy who most physically struggled during the first challenge, and the tribe as a whole that did best on the puzzle portion.  Ryan is fine, and the rest of the tribe is not going to complain, though, so the pair set to digging.  Ryan wisely has them dig in diagonals from the corners of the square area, and this strategy bears fruit.  After what we’re told is only about half an hour of searching (out of a 4 hour time limit), Ryan finds the bag.  Funnily enough, this happens right when he says they might get lucky, and comments on how he’s always been lucky.  Remember that, I’ll bring it up later.  

Back with our Dumbass tribe, we find that my joking name for them is non-indicative.  After some agonizing, Sami gets the problem solved seemingly with ease.  He admits he had hoped to hide his smarts, but getting flint is more important.  Sami also starts listing off the various aspects of himself, and how he could be labeled as such.  Sensing a golden opportunity reminiscent of the Debbie Jobs of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, production, of course, lists all these options out.  Needing to not COMPLETELY copy their previous work, however, they instead list all the occupations at once, adding them on as Sami lists them.  Hilariously, this culminates in the last one needing to be angled to that it fits on the screen.  Good comedy, show.  Good comedy.  

Back on Vesi, as they continue to struggle with their shelter, it’s time to start looking at alliances.  Noelle talks about her bond with Justine, due to them being similar ages.  Unfortunately, math does not seem to be Noelle’s strong suit, since 2 is not a majority in a tribe of six.  Nneka and Cody have bonded, meanwhile, since both work in similar fields.  They add in Jesse as a third, showing that they’re at least marginally better at math.  Dwight is not brought up in any conversation that we see, which bodes ill for his prospects, in my view.  Yeah, no one’s outright targeting him, but if you’re not brought up at all, even as a number, that’s a bit of a concern.  

Going back to our alliance, Cody is pushing hard for Justine to be the first one out.  Justine mentioned that she worked in sales, a profession that, Cody notes, prepares one well for the game of “Survivor”.  And he should know, since he’s in sales.  Not that he’s mentioned that to his tribe, which leads the editors back to the Debbie Well once again, to tack “Sales” onto the end of Cody’s chyron.  Again, hilarious.  Reasonable argument too, but Jesse admits that he’s the one in the middle in this whole mess.  Jesse also takes the time to give us his backstory, and this is probably the one that works the best out of the whole episode.  Someone asks about Jesse’s tattoos, and he gets to talking about growing up being in a gang, before turning his life around.  He gets his GED, goes to grad school, it’s uplifting stuff, and most important, actually flows naturally with the conversation!

Over on Dumbass, Owen is having a hard time.  He’s doing what, on paper, seems to be a smart move.  He puts feelers out to people, a casual “Hey, let’s let each other know if our names come up.” thing.  But according to Owen no one really wants to go along with that, nor talk much strategy at all.  This would be concerning, but I think Owen exaggerates.  True, Gabler is not a fan of the pitch (despite the fact that he will later make a similar agreement with Elie), but Elie, the only other person we see Owen give the pitch to, does agree.  Seems more like a Gabler issue than a tribe issue.  

Elie, whatever she agrees to with Owen, has other plans.  She gives a heartfelt talk about losing her sister to a drug overdose, and the bond the two shared.  It’s sweet stuff overall, and does make us bond with and sympathize with Elie.  That said, it is a bit jarring when Elie tries to force a connection to the women’s alliance she has formed with Morriah and Jeanine.  Don’t get me wrong, perfectly fine and reasonable strategy, and a sympathetic backstory, but the two don’t HAVE to be related, and it feels kind of forced that the show seems to make Elie tie two unrelated things together.  

Before we get to alliance discussions on Coco, we get to see Ryan eating an earthworm.  He says it doesn’t taste very good, which seems like a fair assessment.  That said, this is the last time Ryan is really highlighted this episode, so I want to talk about him here.  Pre-season, I was not super-excited for this season.  Even viewing people in the best light, it seemed like a lot of the players were going to be kind of generic, and not stand out.  Ryan was a big offender in this area, but after tonight, I’ve changed my tune on him (along with a few other players).  The dude has a charm that didn’t seem to come across on paper, but every moment with him on screen is a joy.  He’s just so optimistic, and that smile is infectious.  While we didn’t need to see his “cerebral palsy” story twice, it is a nice story, and good mark for him in terms of overcoming obstacles in his life.  

But I think Ryan is more than just a good social face, however.  I think Ryan may end up our season winner.  I know, I know, he wasn’t one of my pre-season winner picks, and I will stand by them when I look at how wrong I was at the end of the season.  I also acknowledge that this is really early, and I may be WAY off-base here.  However, recall that Ryan had the search strategy that got the tribe his supplies, was the one to find the bag, and most notably, right after saying “I’ve always been lucky.”  That, to me, seems like one of those confessionals that applies to the situation and appears innocuous at the time, but might be a big “winner hint” for down the road.  Sort of the equivalent of Fairplay saying Sandra “Won’t be the Final One” on “Survivor Pearl Islands”.  Technically a spoiler, but one done subtly so the public can’t guarantee it.  Again I may be very wrong here, but if this WAS an episode one hint to a Ryan victory, I will be happy.  Both because he seems like a nice guy, and because I will have called it.  

As to our actual alliance, it doesn’t include Ryan.  A girl’s alliance has formed here as well, largely at the behest of Cassidy.  She feels that many people on her tribe play “loudly”, while she wants to play more quiet.  To this end, she ropes in Karla and Lindsay, who are only too happy to band together to prevent being voted out.  All, after all, could potentially be vulnerable.  Lindsay is the oldest person on the tribe, while Karla is visibly overweight, and so could be seen (incorrectly, from what we get this episode) as a liability in challenges.  They even go so far as to peg their fourth.  James and Lindsay are both from Philadelphia originally, and so the pair bond over that, and James gets brought in as a fourth.  It helps that we see James talking and connecting with Cassidy and Karla as well, though he tells us he’s doing that with everybody.  He gives his own flashback, talking about being a chess champion at age 13, and often being the only African-American kid in the tournaments.  This is annoying, not because there’s no segue or that the backstory is not touching (indeed, this is on the more heartwarming end of the spectrum), but because it leads to James talking about wanting to be “seen as a pawn, but playing like a king”, a forced chess metaphor that I don’t doubt is going to be only the first of many we’ll see on James’ “Survivor” tenure.  

We briefly check back in with Vesi.  They have not managed to start a fire yet, something we saw both other tribes accomplish already.  Cody steals the spotlight, however, as the aforementioned tattoo talk leads to him showing off his own tattoo.  On his butt cheek.  Which says “LIVIN!”  I bring this up only because it becomes our proper episode title.  It’s not bad, but as we’ll see later, there was a much better quote they could have used.  

Dumbass gives us little to work with either.  Gabler again talks about the difficulties in bonding with his tribe due to the age gap between them, while the women debate which man to bring in as their fourth.  Elie makes sure to note that Gabler is by no means off the table, and we see the pair make the “let me know if my name comes up” pact Gabler poo-poo’d from Owen earlier.  Solid strategy, but again, nothing special.  

Moving on, Karla and Geo get to talking about their shared identity as gay Latinos.  There’s no flashback, but it feels like one, with the pair talking about the individual hardships they’ve endured.  Again, good stuff.  Had they included more flashbacks here, I would not have minded.  The focus, though, is on strategizing, as despite Karla being nominally in the women’s alliance, she also agrees to work with Geo, the pair later bringing in Ryan to make a threesome (James would presumably be the fourth).  Karla talks about how worried she was about being the first person out, and thus how weird it is to be seemingly in the middle.  A far cry from the tough, confident woman we got in most of the previews, but I’m rooting for Karla this season, and her emotions are understandable, so I’m not going to complain.  While she’s in a good position now, I’d say her going with the men is better long-term.  That bond with Geo is the 1-on-1 bond you need with someone to help keep the alliance tight, and while I don’t doubt Karla is tight with the other women as well, it’s the difference of one truly tight person versus two slightly tight people.  Plus hey, if you’re worried about being voted out due to perceived weakness, Geo isn’t exactly acquitting himself well right there.  

Vesi STILL doesn’t have fire, and to make matters worse, their “shelter”, such as it is, collapses on Dwight.  Somewhere, Rupert (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) is taking notes on their shelter design.  Thankfully for Vesi, a distraction comes in the form of a boat.  Yep, it’s “Shipwheel Island” time, or at least this season’s equivalent!  Dwight volunteers to go, which no one particularly objects to, further supporting my theory that he’s out on most tribe strategy discussions.  James and Ryan want to stay behind on Coco for shelter work, and of the remaining four, Karla is selected based on a “Guess the closest number” method.  Dumbass also goes “random” but has the more clever method of having people hold out varying amounts of fingers which get counted, with whoever’s finger is 43rd getting to go.  This ends up being Gabler.  

Now let me tell you, this Shipwheel Island is very different.  The last few times, people walked up a hill.  This time, they walk to A ROCK!  Yeah, props for changing it up a bit so we aren’t seeing the same shots over and over, but this is not much.  Karla uses the admittedly difficult-looking walk to talk about her own backstory.  Given that this group didn’t seem to chat much about the game, this seems like a good use of time, and the backstory is nice, but again, not much of a segue.  

For all my snark, the dilemma at the rock is at least different.  All three will privately decide whether to risk or not risk their vote.  Rather than wait until Tribal Council to find out what happened, however, they reveal publicly at once.  As one would expect, all who chose not to risk do nothing.  Everyone who chose to risk a vote, however, draws a tube from a bag containing the same number of tubes as risked votes.  One has some advantage, the remaining ones have a lost vote.  The jury is still out for me on this change.  I appreciate them not going with EXACTLY the same mechanics as last time, but how public everything is I’m not sure is a good move.  It feels like it will incentivize more conservative play, since you can be called out for potentially screwing someone up immediately.  That said, it does open up more direct mind games than the previous iteration, and like I said, better to shake things up.  

All three of our players make the logical decision here.  Karla, being the swing vote, decides not to risk.  Gabler and Dwight, being at least nominally somewhat on the outs, need the advantage more, and thus go for the risk.  Each draws a tube, and we head back to camp.  Dwight, despite telling pretty much the truth, gets disbelieved by his tribe.  The one good thing that happened is that they got fire while he was gone (after 30 hours, per the chyron).  In a good bit of editing, we see him start to open the tube, only to cut to Gabler.  Being a more up-front type person, Gabler is believed by his tribe, and he sets about opening his tube.  With no subtlety, Gabler crows his delight at his advantage, an idol good for two Tribal Councils.  Dwight has lost his vote.  Can’t dwell on that for too long; we’ve got an immunity challenge to get to!

Our challenge is really not as spectacular as you would hope a first immunity challenge is.  It’s an obstacle course combining elements from the first challenges of “Survivor Edge of Extinction” (particularly in the balance beam), “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” (in being able to make the beam easier), and “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers” (in choosing which table maze to go with, depending on when you get to that portion of the challenge).  Nothing BAD in each of these, and I’m glad to see choices make a return in challenges, but it just lacks the epic scale you hope for in such a challenge.  

Thankfully, this is made up for by our immunity idols for the season.  They are nothing short of INCREDIBLE!  Two figures in native headdress, similar in theme but distinct, as multi-idols should be, if you’re not going to split one idol into equal parts.  Much as I hate to praise this season, I would compare them favorably to the idols of “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, which also had multiple idols distinct from one another, but with clear theming to them.  Good job, art department!  

Also worthy of praise is the misdirection.  We’ve had good strategizing from all three tribes, and there’s a real sense of mystery about who will win.  Even Coco getting out to an early lead after Ryan does well in digging under a log is no guarantee of victory for them, and this is me saying that after the fact, knowing Coco keeps their lead.  I should also mention that during the “get up a sheer wall” portion, James loses his pants, leading his tribe to tell him “Get your pants on.”.  I bring this up because, when you have such a funny title GIFT-WRAPPED for you, show, you use it.  I don’t care how much you liked “LIVIN!”, this was clearly the superior choice!

Coco, as I said, wins, having gotten to the mazes first, and wisely picked the traditional table maze as the safest option.  And I say this knowing the Heroes did the same thing in the same challenge on “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers” and lost.  Vesi and Dumbass are in a bit of a race for second.  Dumbass has been behind, but both tribes struggle on the maze.  However, while Vesi is able to work together, and come up with a more stable method of working the table (standing behind one another in the center as opposed to one person on each side), while Gabler and Sami on Dumbass argue and can’t get their act together.  Thus, Vesi gets second, and Dumbass gets their flint confiscated, since that’s back as well, I guess.  

Gabler is pretty broken up about the loss. taking a good portion of the blame for the maze issues, and even going so far as to say he’ll be using his Shot in the Dark.  Why he does that when he has an IDOL that’s only good for two Tribal Council’s anyway, I don’t know.  Fortunately, this tribe does not initially seem to be one that cares too much about challenge performance, and Elie reassures him that he’s not going anywhere, such that Gabler wisely takes back his public claim of use of his Shot.  

So, I guess the debate is between Sami, the other person who arguably cost them the challenge, and Owen, who hasn’t bonded as well with the tribe.  Oh, wait, Elie is talking about needing to keep Sami for his challenge ability.  Ok, so I guess we get the “downfall of Owen” story, right?  No, there goes Elie talking about Morriah being weak in challenges, and how she should go now. Guess the women’s alliance is out the window?  Oh, but Morriah is back pitching Owen, which Elie is considering as we head off to Tribal, and do you get why the episode starts to fall flat after the immunity challenge now?  Everything is messy and poorly explained.  

Morriah being “weak” is the worst offender of all, since we see ZERO evidence on screen of her doing poorly in either challenge.  Jeanine visibly messed up on the digging portion, and Gabler and Sami cost you on the maze.  Even the first challenge, Morriah contributed just as much as the rest of the tribe.  You were out there, not me, so I’ll assume we didn’t see something, but surely we could have some EVIDENCE to show that this isn’t a baseless claim.  

In the great debate between getting rid of Owen or Morriah, the correct answer is Gabler.  I get that having a player who is very honest can be seen as a good thing, but the dude is MESSY as a player.  I wouldn’t trust him to keep my alliances secrets for me, and between that and his challenge performance, he’s of little use.  Even his idol is of no real value to the tribe, only being good for one more Tribal Council after tonight.  Yes, him playing that or doing his Shot in the Dark after all is a risk, but surely you can split the vote with Owen or something.  If it MUST be between Owen and Morriah, Owen is the smarter choice.  We’ve seen nothing to indicate Morriah is a liability, and while Owen hasn’t been playing badly, he’s not as connected or well into an alliance as you would hope.  

Our Tribal Council is decent, but overshadowed by the epic set.  At first glance, it’s nothing special.  Domed huts in the trees.  But there’s a great bone motif going on.  Skulls throughout, and a great rib-cage walk-up leading into the council.  Really my only gripe is that, while the individual art elements this season are all top-notch, they don’t coalesce.  Bones at Tribal Council, but a bull-shaped urn (which is also pretty cool) and an octopus snuffer, with native figure idols.  Not seeing a theme here.  

Probst reads Dumbass the riot act at Tribal Council, since they go the Jacob Derwin (“Survivor Ghost Island”) route in overconfidence in their tribe in face of evidence to the contrary.  Dumbass goes so far as to say that they won the challenge, despite, you know, losing.  Their reasoning is that they didn’t give up, which is assuredly admirable, but doesn’t change facts, as Owen will later point out.  Once Probst is done snarking some sense into them, we settle down into pretty bog-standard double talk, though it’s talk that convinces me that Owen’s going.  Less because of what’s said, and more because Elie, our presumed decision-maker, glances over at Owen at multiple significant moments.  

This, it seems, was just misdirection, as Morriah goes home.  I am not happy.  Apart from not thinking it’s the smart move, Morriah seemed nice, yet it felt like we barely got to know her.  In contrast, Owen had clear flaws in his game, and while he to seems like a nice guy, we didn’t necessarily need much more than what we got.  And Gabler, of course, would still have been best on both strategic and character fronts.  I’ve outlined his flaws as a player, and while he is definitely the biggest character of the three, I feel like what we got of him would still be plenty for the season.  Sort of a Vince Sly (“Survivor Worlds Apart”) for the modern era: Out early, but memorable for his time.  

This premiere fizzled out by the end.  It was still good overall, and did the primary job of bonding me to the cast, and had many good moments.  I didn’t emphasize them much, but those drone shots during the challenges were gorgeous, to highlight one underrated element from the episode.  But my, was there nothing after the immunity challenge.  Up until then we had good characters and strategizing, then BOOM!  Decisions made with no congruity with what we’re shown, and a disappointing exit of someone we hardly got to know.  By no means the worst, but this show, and I suspect this season, can do better.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Cast Assessment

Ask and ye shall receive!  I complain about the lack of an official cast reveal; a few days later we get said official cast reveal.  Now, to complain about the lack of an intro, and the 26 day format being made permanent…

My dear readers, it is my profound pleasure to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  With the cast and tribe divisions now officially announced, it’s time once again for me to talk about my thoughts on them based on very little information, so that people can laugh about how wrong my takes are down the line.  Yes, even after over a decade of blogging, I still occasionally say such crazy things as “I think Katrina Radke will win the season!”

There’s not a lot of business to take care of for this one.  It will be a pretty standard cast assessment blog, at least by my standards.  That said, my longtime readers will know that I usually put a lot of emphasis on one’s pet peeves as an indicator of how they’ll do.  Generally, if it’s something you’re all but guaranteed to encounter out there (liars, for example), I’m less jazzed on your chances.  I won’t be doing that nearly as much this season.  Not because I’ve come to believe my methodology is flawed.  Far from it!  I won’t bring it up much because almost EVERYONE on this cast has a pet peeve that makes me perceive their chances negatively.  Thus, rather than being an exception, having a bad pet peeve is now the NORM.  As such, it is pointless to mention it when it happens, and I will instead be bringing up the few people who DON’T have a chances-tanking pet peeve when relevant, and also those who have concerning, but not guaranteed to be there, pet peeves.  Just wanted to make it clear why I was doing what I was doing.  The implications… will be discussed later.  For now, let’s talk about our cast, in no particular order!

Nneka Ejere (43, Phramacist, Weatherford, TX, Vesi Tribe): Confession time: I did a double-take when I first saw Nneka’s age in her bio.  Based on her photo, which I saw first, I would have easily lopped a good 15 years AT LEAST off her actual age.  I bring this up, partly to make fun of my own biases, but also to explain why I’m not immediately out on what the show considers to be an “older woman”, which is usually a safe bet in these sorts of predictive blogs.  If she has the physical strength and stamina to back up her looks, age should not be a major issue for her.  The more minor third reason is that Nneka doesn’t give us a whole lot else to work with.  Her pet peeves, while concerning, are no more so than the vast majority of the rest of the cast’s.  Her comparing herself to Cirie I would say is an issue, but more so due Cirie being such a high bar than any sort of failing on Nneka’s part.  Combine what seems like a very average player with the tribe least likely to go to Tribal Council pre-merge, and you’ve got a recipe for a good mid-merge boot.  She MIGHT be in trouble if she costs her tribe a challenge and they go to a pre-merge Tribal Council, but I find that unlikely.  Otherwise she’ll be a solid, but unremarkable, player who will have a good run in the game.  

Mike “Gabler” Gabler (52, Heart Valve Specialist, Meridian, ID, Baka Tribe): Here we have the guy who stood out to the majority of the fandom from the season preview, and understandably so.  A good, recognizable silhouette or article of clothing works wonders, especially in the short time of a preview.  Between his distinctive beard and cap, Gabler has that in spades.  He also stands out as the oldest player this season, and again, it would be easy to write him off as an easy early boot based on that alone.  I, however, am a bit more bullish on Gabler’s chances.  Granted, I can see his tribe going to Tribal Council at least an average amount early on, and they are all significantly younger than he is, so Gabler could seem to be in trouble.  What intrigues me, though is the combination of his location and his occupation.  Gabler is clearly a country boy.  Grew up in Texas, now lives in Iowa.  Even on “Survivor”, you can see the stereotypes.  Think Colby Donaldson or Ben Driebergen.  That’s the sort of person you think of as coming from those places, and certainly Gabler LOOKS the part.  Yet, the occupation that is effectively “doctor” often conjures up completely opposite images than the stereotypes just mentioned.  This means for me that A) Gabler is smarter than he looks and B) he can move comfortably in multiple social worlds.  This is why I think his age won’t be as big an issue for him, and even if his tribe loses some, I can see him making the merge.  I don’t see him making much beyond that, since people will realize how threatening he is given that he’s still around, but an early boot?  I personally doubt it.  

Noelle Lambert (25, U.S. Paralympian, Manchester, NH, Vesi Tribe): The first thing most anyone is going to notice about Noelle is that she is an amputee; her left leg now being a prosthesis.  This ground is, if you’ll pardon the pun, well-tread on the show by now, with the likes of Chad Crittenden on “Survivor Vanuatu”, and Kelly Bruno on “Survivor Nicaragua”.  I’d lean toward Noelle emulating more of the former than the latter in terms of game.  Partly this is due to her being on the tribe unlikely to attend Tribal Council pre-merge, but I don’t see her having any major conflict with her tribemates either.  All fairly athletic, on the younger side, and fairly easygoing.  Noelle should be simpatico in that regard.  Her prosthetic leg, unfortunately, is what dooms her chances in the long-run.  It’s rarely said out loud, lest someone look like a jerk, but people with a visible (for want of a better term) disability are a target, lest they get the dreaded “sympathy vote” in the end.  Noelle, while a perfectly fine player, does not seem skilled enough to overcome this, and thus will be out in the early-to-mid-merge due to being perceived as a threat in the end.  

Owen Knight (30, College Admissions Director, New Orleans, LA, Baka Tribe): Jumping ahead a bit in our discussion, one thing about this cast that separates it from most recent casts is less of the “nerd” archetype, at least overtly.  There are some “closeted nerds”, again for want of a better term, but ones who wear their nerd card proudly on their sleeve are thin on the ground.  Overall I think this is a good thing.  Even as a nerd myself, it’s nice to have more variety in the archetypes we see.  Owen is the exception to this, and it’s part of why I like the guy.  He’s also one of the first to have pet peeves that AREN’T a deal-breaker for his chances on an average season.  All right, “Entitled people” is a bit concerning, but 4-way stop signs are scare on the ground on an undeveloped island in Fiji, and thereby finding people who don’t know what to do at them will be difficult.  Unfortunately for Owen, much as I like his personality, I don’t have a ton of hope for his game chances.  He does seem to be physically fit enough to avoid a super-early target, but the lack of other overt nerds makes him stand out, and given how they’re generally perceived in this day and age of the metagame, makes him a threat.  I’d mark him as a late-pre-merge boot, probably the last one right before we merge.  It’s possible he squeaks by to the early merge, but not much beyond that.  He’s just too visible and too threatening to make it farther.  

Justine Brennan (29, Cyber Security Sales, Marina del Rey, CA, Vesi Tribe): Justine should be incredibly thankful that she is on the tribe she’s on, as there’s not much else to recommend her.  People who appear to be very “worldly” in the sense of living a fairly “polished” lifestyle usually don’t do well in my estimation, just due to not handling the environment well.  Justine is the one of the cast who most screams this, but fortunately for her, she’s likely not going to Tribal Council pre-merge.  Unlike what this archetype usually implies, she seems at least decently fit enough to not be a challenge sink, so she won’t be the factor that could cost them in an outside scenario.  Once she’s at the merge, which I don’t see her having SPECTACULAR game skills, she seems at least competent enough to not screw herself over, plus at that point it’s usually the threats who are targetted.  As such, expect Justine to be a mid-to-late merge boot, possibly even making it to the finale, though with zero chance of winning at that point.  

Cody Assenmacher (35, Elevator Sales, Honolulu, HI, Vesi Tribe): The country boy transplanted to island life (Cody is originally from Iowa), Cody is our first contestant to be from Hawaii at the time of filming (Jonas Otsuji of “Survivor One World” was originally from Hawaii, but listed as Lehi, Utah in his bio), and the second so far to share a name with a prominent “Total Drama Island” contestant.  Sadly, that’s about the most interesting thing I have to say about him.  As a player, Cody is… Fine.  He’s fine.  Just fine.  Likable, physically fit, inoffensive.  Perfectly fine guy, but just does not stand out as a player or a character.  Probably be a solid player, but uninspiring.  I can see him leading his tribe, due to being a good consensus pick, but this is why he won’t go father than the mid-merge.  Again, too big a threat to keep around, but a perfectly serviceable, if uninspiring, player otherwise.  Though I will say comparing himself to Malcolm does show good self-knowledge of his play style, at least.  

Morriah Young (28, Teacher, Philadelphia, PA, Baka Tribe): You probably remember Morriah from the season preview as “The lady with the rainbow hair”.  Much like her hair, Morriah definitely stands out as a character.  Very bubbly and energetic, Morriah is very much of the social-network-savvy generation that “Survivor” is loving lately.  She opened a “Selfie Museum” for goodness’ sake!  Sadly, much like a firework, Morriah will be a bright flash, but flare out fairly early.  Morriah’s trouble is that prowess with social media does not translate to social skills.  Not that her social skills are bad, but there’s no connection between her implied strengths and the strengths needed in the game.  Morriah seems more worldly than a lot of the other players this season, and not the most fit (though hardly unfit), which could tank her chances.  I will give credit that James Clement (“Survivor China”) is an unusual comparison in this day and age of “Survivor”, but it also supports my thesis of “Great character, not as good at the game as they need to be”.  I don’t see her being the ABSOLUTE first out, but especially if she costs her tribe a challenge, she’s out pre-merge.  Good candidate for a second chance season, though.  

Sami Layadi (19, Pet Cremator, Las Vegas, NV, Baka Tribe): Looks like I did the “Top 5 and Bottom 5 Occupations” too early.  “Pet Cremator” should definitely be on the list.  Aside from the interesting occupation Sami, once again, doesn’t have a whole lot to make him stand out.  Perfectly nice young guy, seems like he’ll have decent gamesmanship, clearly physically fit.  Just not anything to really recommend him.  His age is really the major concern I would have (apart from the general pet peeve issue, of course), since we’ve seen that teenagers, generally, just don’t have the maturity and life experience needed to do super well.  The occasional exception (Julia Sokolowski of “Survivor Kaoh Rong” and Michael Yerger of “Survivor Ghost Island”) notwithstanding, this is a demographic that just doesn’t have good track record, and I don’t see Sami being enough of a stand-out to truly buck that trend.  I do think he makes the merge, as there are other people with bigger targets on his tribe during the pre-merge phase, but he’s going to mess up somehow, due to his age alone, and thus we have another early-to-mid merge boot.  

Karla Cruz Godoy (28, Educational Project Manager, Newark, DE, Coco Tribe): The “Tattooed lady in blue” as I described her from the season preview, and our first representative from the third tribe in the order this list is being done.  Karla was an early favorite of mine based solely on the preview, and I’m pleased to say her bio only makes me like her more.  She talks a lot about her family’s immigration and tough life growing up, which could turn people off, but I find to be a breath of fresh air on a cast that’s been fairly bland so far overall.  She stands out visually and in her stance on life, but not in a way that seems likely to be obnoxious or annoying to her fellow players.  She’s even got the least-problematic pet peeves so far!  True, “Pessimism” is a bit of a concern, but less guaranteed to come up than other’s peeves so far, and otherwise inoffensive in that area.  About the worst that I can say for her is that she has an irritating grammatical redundancy in her bio with “…became teenage parents at the age of 16…”.  I suppose I could offer the same criticism as Nneka, since Karla also lists Cirie as the player she’s most similar too, but again, it’s a question of setting a high bar for yourself rather than being an actively bad thing for your game.  So, is Karla one of my winner picks?  Sadly no.  It’s tough to talk about Karla’s placement, since it largely depends on the other members of her tribe, and she’s the first member of her tribe to come up on this blog.  From my perspective, her tribe will very much be a “bro-down”, more so than any other tribe here, but also has the most challenge sinks.  Karla is not exactly unfit, but she’s not a challenge beast like a lot of others on this cast.  She’s likely going to be more “in” with the dominant alliance on her tribe than the other women, but is also on the tribe I would say is most likely to lose a lot of challenges.  If they can break about even with Baka, Karla’s game skills probably take her to the mid-to-late merge, but if she costs the tribe a challenge, or they lose a lot in general, expect her to be out pre-merge.  Either way, expect her to be fun.  

Ryan Medrano (25, Warehouse Associate, El Paso, TX, Coco Tribe): Speaking of the bros, this guy is so into the physical part of the game that he lists Rupert as the guy he’s most like.  Not exactly a good outlook for the game in general, but for the tribe he’s on, I think he’ll do all right.  Not going to lead an alliance, but I expect him to get into the majority in the pre-merge pretty easily.  He won’t be the biggest threat come the merge, but like Rupert on most seasons, he’s out somewhere in the mid-to-late merge, since a physical player like him is always something of a threat.  Yet another player who’s generally perfectly nice, and will coast on that a good way, but just not that interesting or with the skills to overcome the few red flags he has.  

Lindsay Carmine (42, Pediatric Nurse, Downington, PA, Coco Tribe): Our third “older person” on this season.  Despite being the youngest of those three, Lindsay does not have something that can counteract the target this puts on her, unlike the other two.  No beating around the bush here: Lindsay is my pick for first boot of the season.  About the best that can be said for her is that none of her pet peeves are particularly concerning.  Cutting in line, smacking gum, and playing games on one’s phone when talking to others are not things that will be in much supply on the island.  But that “older person” target is tough to overcome, and combine this with Lindsay’s tribe not being that physically strong in general, and I look to her to be gone super early.  She’s on a tribe that doesn’t seem like a good natural mesh for her personality, and so will need time to bond to have any chance.  Time she sadly doesn’t have, if my read of relative tribe strength is accurate.  It’s unfortunate for her, since she seems perfectly nice, and again, not bad at the game by a stretch.  But you need better than “ok” to beat the “older player” target on a tribe like this, and time Lindsay does not have.  

Jeanine Zheng (24, UX Designer, San Francisco, CA, Baka Tribe): Once again, another “Wordly player” without the protection of a challenge-dominant tribe.  Jeanine pays more lip service to being good in the outdoors than the likes of Morriah, but I’m overall not seeing it.  She’s the generic attractive woman who compares herself to Kim Spradlin, with not a lot else going on.  Add onto that a described “introvert”, and a tribe that will probably lose a few challenges, and Jeanine is another textbook pre-merge boot.  

Jesse Lopez (30, Political Science PhD., Durham, NC, Vesi Tribe): On a more positive note, here we have my first pick to win the whole thing.  If you were hold me down and force me to only pick one person to do well on the season, I would go with Jesse, and not just because he’s on the tribe that I see as most likely to dominate.  The dude has something the best winners have: A non-threatening perception that hides a cutthroat mind.  Looking at him, as he says, you don’t see a scholar.  Dude seems tough, yet easygoing enough to not get on people’s nerves.  Yet, he studied political science, arguably one of the best majors for understanding the game of “Survivor”, and enjoys playing chess with his son.  Both wholesome, and good practice!  Dude is a threat, a stealth leader most won’t see coming.  His tribe may be a target some the merge, but I don’t see him as the one being targeted.  If he influences a few votes from the shadows, he very likely puts himself in a position to win the whole thing, and the game will be all the better for it.  

Cassidy Clark (26, Designer, Austin, TX, Coco Tribe): Hoo boy.  Starting out, Cassidy seemed all right.  Yeah, she was not on the best tribe for her, but she seemed easygoing enough to fit with the guys and seemed adaptable.  With some game savvy, though she might be able to worm her way in ahead of Karla.  Then I got to reading her pet peeves.  They’re bad.  GOOD LORD, they’re bad.  Even by the standards of THIS CAST, they’re bad.  “Narrow-Minded, Judgmental People” is bad on it’s own, but ultimately a run-of-the-mill red flag.  “People who have no reverence for Mother Nature and all her beautiful beings!” is a whole other level of “woah”.  You remember Courtney Marit from “Survivor Exile Island”?  Remember how awkward and cringey she was talking about nature?  How it alienated her from a bunch of her tribe?  Guess what, she gets a second shot now!  Cassidy was always going to have an uphill battle with her starting tribe being likely to lose, and the core alliance unlikely to include her, but this just really puts the kibosh on her being anything other than a pre-merge boot.  Her age JUST saves her from being the first boot, but as soon as they go a second time?  Cassidy is toast.  

James Jones (37, Event Planner, Philadelphia, PA, Coco Tribe): James finds himself in a bit of a weird spot, in terms of demographic.  He doesn’t really hit the “older” designation as the show defines it, but neither is he so young that he automatically fits in with the younger group, despite the tribe still skewing young personality-wise.  That said, just because he isn’t a natural fit doesn’t mean he can’t fit.  He seems fairly easygoing, so unless he costs his tribe a challenge, I think he’ll slot in fairly easily with the other men of his tribe.  It helps that he’s another rare one this season with non-problematic pet peeves, specifically bad customer service and pushy salespeople.  His game smarts, while fine, seem like nothing to write home about, so I’d peg him as another early-to-mid merge boot.  Probably will find himself in the majority initially, but be taken out as a safe bet when said alliance gets targeted.  

Geo Bustamante (36, Project Manager, Honolulu, HI, Coco Tribe): In contrast to James, Geo will be the figurehead of the main alliance who doesn’t have as much going on as he thinks he does, but will avoid a target for being too obvious.  I think Geo does have SOME skills, and certainly his managerial experience can be an asset in forming an alliance.  But when you’re saying you’re as smart as the likes of Cochran and Boston Rob?  Yeah, I find that hard to believe.  Geo will last a good while, as he seems decent in challenges and his tribe will need his strength, but his overinflated sense of self will get the better of him eventually.  Probably somewhere around the early-to-mid merge, though after James.  

Elisabeth “Elie” Scott (31, Clinical Psychologist, Salt Lake City, UT, Baka Tribe): My second overall pick to win the whole thing.  How could I not favor my fellow psychology peep?  Her years of experience in the field, coupled with her relative maturity compared to most of the rest of her cast give her the skills she needs to make at least a deep run.  A stealth threat, I can easily see her squeezing her way to the end, then running roughshod over the other players at Final Tribal Council.  Granted she does dislike injustice, which there can be a LOT of on “Survivor”, but if she keeps that in check?  There’s very little in the way between her and one million dollars.  Just a skilled, competent player all around.  

Dwight Moore (22, Graduate Student, Collierville, TN, Vesi Tribe): Rounding out our cast, Dwight is another one with comparatively less-objectionable pet peeves.  All right, “Arrogance” is a bit problematic, but again, lack of use of turn signals is both relatable and unlikely to happen on the island.  As to people making “The Office” jokes about his name, your guess is as good as mine.  Dwight strikes me as yet another easygoing guy, though with more charm and personality than most of them.  If nothing else, I can respect him appreciating Wendell’s game on “Survivor Ghost Island”, and it seems like that will fit well into his play style.  What stops me from giving him a better rating is his age.  Dude’s not a teenager, but 22 is still pretty young, and I just worry he doesn’t have the life experience needed to pull off a game he might otherwise have the talent for.  He should still make it deep, probably a mid-to-late merge position.  I could even see him being the person out right before the finale.  But win?  Try again in a few years, then we’ll talk.  

There we have our cast, and for the first time in a while, I’m not super thrilled.  While there are a few standouts I quite enjoy (Karla, Jesse, Owen), of the most part I found myself struggling to write about these people.  Very few of them were bad, or actively annoyed me in some way, but they were just… fine.  Nice, decent people with average game competence who just aren’t exciting.  Sort of a whole cast full of Jon Misch (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”).  That’s not the WORST a cast can do, but an exciting season it does not make for.  I hope I’m proven wrong, but I don’t have high hopes for this season to go down well in the history books.  In addition to this problem, we’re likely going to get a lot of new twists, which will take time to explain, and thus eat up screen time a la “Survivor 41”.  When you combine a cast I’m not wild about with the season likely being poorly edited, the outlook is grim.  

That said, things might be even worse than I predict.  Yes, we’re coming back to the pet peeves again.  I think there might be a reason we’ve got similar-sounding pet peeves here, and I think that reason is conflict.  By casting a lot of people with similar buttons to push, you can set yourself up for big, explosive conflicts.  Just one person does something wrong; the whole tribe goes off.  For some people, this is a plus, and makes for exciting tv.  For me, it means we’re doomed to a season of people either being bland, or yelling a lot and being unlikeable.  Let’s hope that I’m wrong.  

This negativity is too much, even for me, so let me end on a more lighthearted note: The tribe names.  Vesi and Coco are fine.  Standard, nothing to write home about.  And I’m sure Baka is an actual Fijian word, and related to the other two tribes in some way.  I’m sure what I’m about to talk about is in no way intended by the “Survivor” production crew.  But I am a nerd.  A nerd who watches a fair amount of subtitled anime.  So to me, I see “Baka”, and I immediately jump to the Japanese definition of the word.  It means, generally, “stupid”, though depending on the contest could also be translated as “idiot”, “moron”, or “dumbass”.  Thus, juvenile as it is, and even though it has ZERO bearing on the people on the tribe, I can’t help but read their tribe name that way.  Hence forth, through no fault of their own, the tribe shall be known, by me, as the “Dumbass Tribe”!

With that bit of levity out of the way, let us hope that my dire predictions are wrong, and I’ll see you in three weeks for the premier!  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.