Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Cast Assessment.

Well, CBS certainly took their sweet time this year, and also certainly continue to be stingy with the info they give us.  Nevertheless, the cast is officially here, so it is time for me to go over each of them, and how I think they’ll do this season.  Yes, welcome back once again to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  

Before we get into the cast, one quick bit of business: Amongst the information that CBS refuses to give us is the tribe divisions. That said, as tribe division does have a major impact on one’s chances (but tell me again how luck plays no part on this show), I’ve found a reported leak of tribe divisions, and will be going based off of that.  I normally wouldn’t do so, but I’ve come to respect how important knowing said division is, and this leak does line up with what we saw in the preview, so I’ll act as though it is legit.  If, for some reason, it is inaccurate, my apologies.  That said, let’s dig into this new cast, starting with…

Austin Li Coon (26, Grad Student, Chicago, IL, Reba Tribe): When I first read Austin’s initial profile, I worried that he didn’t know much about the game.  He initially listed Owen Knight (“Survivor 43”) as the guy he’s most like, which made me a bit concerned.  After all, Owen would have been on his tv VERY recently when Austin was going out to film, so perhaps it was just recency bias.  But then he went on to list Wendell Holland (“Survivor Ghost Island”) and Jay Starrett (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) as well, so I’ll give him the benefit of a doubt here.  That said, I do feel Austin missed his true closest “Survivor” companion: Woo of “Survivor Cagayan”.  And no, I’m not just saying that because the two look like they could be cousins.  Dude projects a very laid-back, surfer-bro attitude.  Someone who’s there more for the experience than to play the game super-strategically.  I mean, the dude literally put Naruto, the anime/manga ninja not known for his decision-making prowess, as his hero.  Put cruelly, Austin’s an idiot.  That said, he seems like a pretty likable, easygoing guy (he certainly has one of the most relatable pet peeves to date.  Banana-flavored candy is an insult to both bananas and candy), so he’s probably a useful idiot.  Expect him to be a number in an alliance just happy to go along for the ride, eliminated mid-to-late merge as a challenge threat.  He’ll be a bright spot on our screens until then, but not necessarily the smartest.  

Dee Valaderes (26, Entrepreneur, Miami, FL, Reba Tribe): So not only are we repeating tribe divisions and colors from “Survivor 43”, but we’re repeating contestants, too?  With Bruce from “Survivor 44″ coming back, I had to double-check that this wasn’t Justine Brennan of “Survivor 43”, aka “The Salesperson Cody Insisted Had To Go”.  But no, Dee is just a woman who gives off similar energy to her, and thus will probably meet the same fate.  Look, don’t get me wrong, there’s not a lot on paper that goes against Dee.  Most of her answers are inoffensive, and while I could nitpick things like her wanting to emulate players who made “BIG MOVEZ”, sometimes to their own detriment, that’s getting really nitpicky.  No, my call here is 100% vibes.  Some people just exude that “sales” energy, and while Dee technically isn’t a salesperson, she’s doubtless had to use similar skills in her career.  To her credit, Justine’s vibes in that particular area were low; she just got caught out by someone who was also a salesperson.  But only the blind could miss what Dee exudes here, and I bet most people are going to consider her a threat.  Luckily for Dee, I don’t see her tribe going to Tribal Council much, and there is one person on her tribe we’ll be getting to who’s a more obvious early target.  However, I still say Dee is out at the later pre-merge, maybe early merge if she’s lucky, just because her vibes are too obvious.  

Brandon Donlon (26, Content Producer, Sicklerville, NJ, Lolo Tribe): Doubtless those of you who saw the preview remember Brandon.  He’s the “My grandfather robbed a bank.” guy.  Unfortunately for him, in his bio he stated that getting a root canal was preferable to playing Settlers of Catan, and for this sin, he shall be the first boot.  

I kid, I kid.  Despite my newfound dislike of the guy for dissing one of my favorite board games, I actually like his odds decently well.  Dude knows the game well, and seems to have a good understanding of himself, with apt past player comparisons to the likes of Jonathan Penner (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Mike White (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  Add onto that a solid challenge-helping package on a tribe that’s going to have some easy early targets, and I don’t see a way Brandon doesn’t make the merge.  That said, he does give off that obvious “schemer” look in the way he carries himself and talks, but does have a charm about him.  Thus, I’m putting him as a late-merge boot, probably the penultimate episode, when his schemes finally catch up with him.  Think a similar fate to Omar on “Survivor 42”.  Good, certainly, but not good enough to lower his threat level and pull it all the way.  Look for him to be a top contender for a returnee season, though.  Dude does give a good confessional.  

Emily Flippen (28, Investment Analyst, Laurel, MD, Lolo Tribe): No, that is not a typo.  There are, in fact, people on this season who are not exactly 26 years old.  Emily is probably my personal favorite of the season, purely on the comparison to Kass McQuillen (“Survivor Cagayan”) alone.  Kass remains one of my all-time favorite characters, and somewhat underrated as a strategist (yes, her social graces could leave much to be desired, but I could see where she was coming from, and she had a good BS detector.  Plus, her return on “Survivor Cambodia” did show us that she could work in that area as well), so I’m pleased to see she takes the comparison as a compliment.  That said, by numbers alone, probably not the comparison you want to be making, Emily.  Add onto that the admission that you’ll be making mistakes, and the first concerning pet peeve of the new cast (her pet peeve is basically “everything”), and while we’ll enjoy Emily as a character, I doubt she’ll stick around for too long for us to enjoy.  Again, there’s an earlier target on this tribe we haven’t met yet, so unless she costs her tribe a challenge, or they collapse into the disaster tribe of the season, she probably makes the “Earn the Merge” portion.  There, however, her personality will probably be too big to ignore, and she’ll be an easy consensus boot, especially if her tribe is large, and therefore easy to target.  She could be out earlier in the event she costs her tribe a challenge (she does admit she’s not the best athletically), but for now, this is unfortunately where I’m sticking with her placement.  Also, as an aside, can you believe it took US “Survivor” this long to cast an “Emily”?

Brandon “Brando” Meyer (23, Software Developer, Seattle, WA, Belo Tribe): Oh Brando.  I hate to repeat myself from the bio I gave Zach Wurtenberger (“Survivor 42”), but I wish you were on a different season or on a different tribe.  Dude is open, smart, friendly, surprisingly athletic, all qualities that should work in his favor.  Unfortunately for him, I predict there will be a disaster tribe this season, and he’s on it.  He does appear to be the brains of his tribe, so expect most challenge wins to come from puzzles completed by him.  But he can only take his tribe so far, and as they keep losing, places to hide become fewer and fewer.  Put another way, I think he’s smart enough to get in an alliance, but I don’t see him as the driving force.  All right for a few votes, but eventually, the alliance will be forced to eat each other pre-merge, and as such, the lieutenant position he would find himself in would be most vulnerable.  A late pre-merge boot, but a pre-merge boot nonetheless, and I am sorry for him for his unfortunate tribe placement.  With just a few better challenge competitors to start with, dude could run deep.  

Hannah Rose (33, Therapist, Baltimore, MD, Lolo Tribe): Before we get into discussing Hannah, I do have to call out “Entertainment Weekly”, here.  No one calls it “Baltimore City, Maryland”.  It’s just “Baltimore”.  “Balmer” if you want to do it in the Maryland accent.  Drop the “city”, it’s already implied.  

Anyway, onto Hannah yourself, she can basically be described, relating to “Survivor 44”, as “Carolyn-lite”.  Tattoed blonde therapist?  Check.  Manic energy?  Check.  Looking for authenticity?  Check.  Now, with how Carolyn did, you might think this would bode well for her.  But backing all this up, Carolyn at least had experience with online reality games to back up her claims of being able to read the room.  Hannah makes these same claims, but with nothing to back them up, and her REALLY feeling like a rehash of a character we’ve seen, if she loses a challenge, I see her going out.  Not to mention therapists who aren’t Denise Stapely (“Survivor Philippines”) tend not to do well in the game for some reason.  Add onto that another concerning set of pet peeves (loud chewers and narcissists), and I peg Hannah as a pre-merge boot.  Ironically, despite a memorable personality, she’ll be forgettable just because Carolyn was on so recently, and will kind of dominate the character space for a bit.  It’s a shame, too.  First player from Baltimore, my hometown, and the only one of this cast to admit a love for Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  I kind of like her a lot.  But unless her tribe outright NEVER loses (which I doubt), she’s out pre-merge.  

Bruce Perreault (47, Insurance Agent, Warwick, RI, BeloTribe): Here he is, Bruce from “Survivor 44”.  Probably the most heavily anticipated contestant of the season.  I’m glad he gets a chance to actually play the game this time, though I do question a bit the wisdom of having him be the ONLY returnee.  On the one hand, it wouldn’t be fair to have him pull a Caleb Reynolds on “Survivor Game Changers”, and be brought back with a bunch of other players, only to be thoroughly outclassed and have no real shot.  On the other hand, having him be the only returnee makes him stand out, and standing out early on is an easy way to get a target.  That said, this is the era of “Touchy, Feely Survivor”, where everyone wants to be nice, and given Bruce’s obvious overall experience, I doubt being a returnee will affect his placement too much.  

No, Bruce will be out early for OTHER reasons.  Partly it’s the “disaster tribe” theory I spoke of earlier, but it’s also an age thing.  I feel like I say this every season nowadays, but this season skews YOUNG.  I believe I read that the average age on this cast is 29.  Not a bunch of fresh-faced babes, but definitely outside Bruce’s target range, and when you consider that Bruce is one of only two people in his 40’s (and the only one in his 40’s on this tribe), there’s just going to be a connection issue.  Bruce’s story, and his willingness to go all-out in challenges, mean he probably isn’t the very first boot, but unless his tribe can win a lot, I just don’t see him connecting with this group, and he’s out somewhere in the early-to-mid pre-merge.  Sorry, man.  At least you’ll get to see Tribal Council this time.  

Janani “J. Maya” Krishnan-Jha (24, Singer, Los Angeles, CA, Reba Tribe): Hoo boy, it’s tough when they don’t specify whether someone is going by their given name or their stage name.  Since they made a point to mention it, I’ll stick with J. Maya for now, but I reserve the right to change it if that’s not how her chyron refers to her later on.  J. Maya certainly wins the award for the wordiest bio of the bunch, though weirdly it doesn’t feel like she says much of substance in it.  Sort of a commentary on influencer/internet sensation culture in general when you think about it.  Not to say that I dislike her; she definitely has her good moments.  One of the nice nuggets I got out of her bio was her respect for her mountaineering grandmother.  Not sure how much it’ll help her in the game of “Survivor”, but it’s nice to see, and a cool shout-out.  I know from expanded media that she also won a competition centered around making puns, which again, not really relevant to the game, but awesome nonetheless.  Apart from possible wordiness, there’s not really anything in her bio that goes against J. Maya, so I’ll give her a fairly average rating.  Barring her turning out to be a major challenge sink, expect her to be around until the merge at least, probably going out in the mid-to-late merge by trying to make a big move and getting called out for playing too hard, too fast.  If she makes puns throughout the game, however, I at least will enjoy the time she’s there.  

Drew Basile (23, Grad Student, Philadelphia, PA, Reba Tribe): Say what you will about Drew, but he knows himself very well.  Dude screams “nerd” with every orifice of his being, and owns it, openly comparing himself to the likes of Cochran (“Survivor South Pacific”) and Ryan Ulrich (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”).  The latter I would say is a fairly deep cut for “Survivor” lore (not to say that the season itself is forgotten, but conversation seems to center around Ben and Chrissy), so clearly this guy knows his stuff.  It’s most unfortunate for him that he’s coming hot on the heels of Carson Garrett (“Survivor 44”).  Now, I doubt that our other players this season have seen ALL of that season, so they may not have seen Carson’s talent with puzzles play out.  But they definitely saw some of that season (Carolyn gets referenced in at least one bio), and Carson’s 3-D printing shenanigans were referenced in the first episode.  Top that off with him wanting to play fast from the get-go per the season preview, and you’ve got a receipt for a super-fan ready to play their way right out of the game.  Drew is lucky he’s not on the disaster tribe, or he’d be out super early.  As it stands, I mark him an early-to-mid merge boot for overplaying his hand.  Again, probably a fun watch, but a flameout in the game almost certainly.  

Julie Alley (49, Estate Attorney, Brentwood, TN, Reba Tribe): I hope you like “Survivor Cambodia”, or at least the phrase “Second Chance”, because Julie will be saying it nonstop for the entirety of her screen time.  From said season being referenced repeatedly by her, to her talking about how she took a second chance in life by changing careers at a (relatively) older age, you can bet this is going to come up a lot.  Thankfully it won’t get old, but unfortunately for Julie, that’s because I have her pegged as the first boot.  There’s just too many factors working against her for me to say otherwise.  The oldest woman on a tribe is always going to have an uphill battle, especially in this day and age where tribe swaps are a rarity, and so challenge strength becomes more paramount as a factor.  This season will be particularly pronounced, since as mentioned, average age is 29.  The only person even really close to her age is Bruce, who’s on another tribe.  Almost makes you think she was put on so Bruce wasn’t the oldest player this season.  Sprinkle on the “Second Chance” rhetoric that I can see getting old real fast, and unless she’s not nearly as much of a challenge sink as she appears, or can form bonds better than she’s indicated with her bio, she’s toast.  I’m happy she’s successful in real life, but I don’t see that translating to “Survivor”.  

Jake O’Kane (26, Attorney, Boston, MA, Belo Tribe): Say what you will about this cast, but for the most part, there’s been some meaty stuff to talk about with them.  No truly generic characters in the bunch.  Jake is the exception to that.  Surprising, given that he had one of the more memorable lines from the season preview (about moving out of his grandma’s house if he wins), and maybe he works better on tv.  But man, his bio just went in one eye and out the other, leaving basically no impact.  He’s fine.  What he says is fine.  Pretty boilerplate stuff about his skills.  Inoffensive, but not leaving an impact.  Weirdly, BECAUSE he’s so inoffensive, and seems like he’ll do ok in challenges, I expect Jake to actually survive a good while despite being on the disaster tribe.  The strength of being kind of generic is that you can chameleon your way in with most groups.  If Jake has even the barest game smarts, and doesn’t sink the tribe in challenges, he should do fine.  I won’t put him as a winner pick proper, since I worry he lacks the killer instinct he needs to strike when the time is right, but he’s definitely in my unofficial “dark horse” slot for the season.  I see him making the finale, the everyone says “Oh, right, he’s still here and a threat”, and gets booted.  Decent placement, but could be better.  

Katurah Topps (35, Civil Rights Attorney, Brooklyn, NY, Belo Tribe): The other person I expect to survive the disaster tribe, Katurah edges out Jake to be one of my two proper winner picks for the season.  This is odd because there are a couple of red flags in her bio.  Her pet peeves are “slow walkers, slow talkers, and people who ooze privilege”, all traits she has at least a decent chance of encountering on the show.  She also talks about moving from a deprived upbringing to become the successful attorney she is today.  beautiful to read about, but I can see coming across as self-righteous or as a major jury threat.  Worth mentioning as well that she’s technically on the “older” end of the spectrum age-wise, but that’s more a mark of this season being young-skewed that her being “older”, and she seems to have the physical fitness to help counteract any negative age perceptions.  All that said, her experience in multiple worlds I think will give her an edge.  If she’s grown up in poverty, she likely knows life on the streets and how to navigate that.  But she can also move in the privileged attorney circle with at least some comfort.  Put those skills to use on a tribe in desperate need of command, and you’ve got a recipe for someone surviving the decimation of their own tribe.  Come the merge, she’s then in the enviable swing vote position, and based on her qualifications, she’s shrewd enough to ride that out all the way to the end.  Add in some good oration at Final Tribal, and you might as well just write her the check.  

Kaleb Gebrewold (29, Software Sales, Vancouver, BC, Lolo Tribe): Our Canadian representative for the season, and the first from British Columbia!  Dude just seems like a nice guy all around, and I did get a kick out of him using “golden retriever” as an adjective to describe himself.  Though I do then have to deduct points for him not technically naming a “Survivor” he is most like.  He starts out comparing himself to Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”), then wisely retracts that as too high a bar to clear, but never gives an alternative name.  I still like the guy, though, but likability alone is not enough to win the game.  Even Ethan Zohn (“Survivor Africa”) had his cutthroat moments.  On top of that, Kaleb has the Canadian problem, not to mention the salesperson problem again.  Yes, I know Kane didn’t win on “Survivor 44”, but I don’t know if THESE players know that, and Maryanne and Erika are still going to be fresh in people’s minds.  Kaleb’s doing the best he can to present himself as a chill-non threat, and luckily for him he’s on a tribe I see rarely going to Tribal Council.  But such goodwill cannot last forever.  Expect Kaleb to be a consensus boot in the early-to-mid merge area, just for being too nice.  

Kellie Nalbandian (30, Critical Care Nurse, New York City, NY, Belo Tribe): Welp, add another one to the “Unorthodox Spelling of the Name ‘Kelly’” Pile!  Long-time readers may recall that I once had a hypothesis that contestants with the name “Kelly” (one of, if not the, most common name on US “Survivor”) could be successful if, and only if, their name was not spelled the traditional “Kelly” (Wiglesworth of “Survivor Borneo” being the exception, and I think that one only applied retroactively when she started being called by said last name).  As such, it would seem like Kellie would have a good shot at the game.  I would agree… If she were on a different tribe.  Unfortunately, Kellie is on what I predict to be the disaster tribe of the season, and that’s going to cost her.  She’s not a challenge sink, but she’s not exactly a challenge strength either, so there’s not much incentive to keep her around based on that.  She’s definitely tough enough for the game (if she can survive being a nurse during the height of COVID-19, I’m not going to question her toughness), but unless her tribe wins more than I expect, she just won’t have the chance.  Granted, she also has some concerning things in her bio.  Notably, her pet peeves are “inefficiency” and “know-it-alls”, both of which are concerning (and in regards to the latter, how’s she going to do RHAP exit interviews if she hates “know-it-alls”?).  Still, the poor tribe luck is the biggest factor in her downfall.  She’s not first out, even on her tribe, but eventually her number will just be up. I will say that if she CAN make the merge, she probably makes a deep run, but this time, I just don’t see the numbers working out for her.  

Nicholas “Sifu” Alsup (30, Gym Owner, O’Fallon, IL, Reba Tribe): Ok, I have to take umbrage with this nickname.  “Sifu”, as people probably know from either “Avatar: The Last Airbender” or “Kung Fu Panda”, is not a name, but a TITLE, basically meaning “master”.  Not really a proper name.  I’ll still refer to him as that, since that’s what he wants to be called, but know that I know your “name’s” origin, dude.  My weird little annoyance aside, Sifu is in a pretty good spot.  Likely the physical anchor of his tribe, he seems pretty level-headed and inoffensive.  Dude’s used to working with people in his gym, so probably some good interpersonal skills without being domineering.  Expect him to take a lead role in challenges, but be a bit more of a co-leader at camp.  While he does have the most concerning pet peeves outside of Emily’s with “liars and mean people”, his overall challenge strength probably keeps him safe until the merge.  If he can kind of fade into the background at that point, which I suspect he can based on how he describes his work, expect him to be a late-merge boot, once the other physical threats are gone.  Also, he likes “Dragon Ball Z”, and while that’s not the same as “Naruto”, it seems like he and Austin are cut from similar cloth that way, so I expect them to get along swimmingly.  

Kendra McQuarrie (31, Bartender, Steamboat Springs, CO, Belo Tribe): Rounding out our disaster tribe is the person I’d say is most likely to go once they lose a challenge.  On a tribe of overall pretty, for want of a better word, “normal” people, Kendra stands out as “the crazy one”.  She openly compares herself to Carolyn, and some might say that bodes well, but I maintain that Carolyn was an exception, rather than a rule.  Most of the time, playing that openly and out there and off-the-wall is only going to stick your neck out for elimination.  I’d also peg Kendra as the most likely to cost the tribe a challenge, based on overall physicality, another mark against her.  Add onto this she’s another one super-excited by the adventure.  Not a problem in and of itself, but again, the extra enthusiasm makes her stick out to dangerous levels.  Also, did you know she completed the “Camino de Santiago”?  Because she did!  And she mentions it!  Repeatedly!  It’s the same problem as Julie and “Second Chances”, though admittedly on a somewhat smaller scale.  Bigger tribes, or a tribe that avoids Tribal Council, might give Kendra just enough wiggle room to make the merge, but I don’t think she has either.  Thus, for standing out too much, Kendra is probably a pre-merge boot.  

Sean Edwards (35, School Principal, Provo-Orem, UT, Lolo Tribe): As the last man on the cast we have yet to talk about, you can expect that he’s my second winner pick of the season.  And again, a bit of a controversial one.  Fairly concerning pet peeve there with “arrogant people”.  Because “Survivor” has never produced one of those.  Also, while he isn’t “old”, he’s on the older end for THIS cast, as I’ve mentioned before.  That said, being a principal means both dealing with (usually quite stressed) adults, as well as people from a VERY different age demographic as yourself.  What I’m saying is that if anyone on this cast can bridge the age gap and be a uniter, Sean is the guy.  Dude exudes charm with that smile, and he’s one of the rare breed of people who admit he needs someone to cover his blind spots in an alliance.  An undervalued quality, and from this, I gather some good game smarts.  He’s not the most athletic, but again, not a sink, and so long as his tribe does fairly well in challenges (as I predict they well), I expect to see Sean in the finals.  

Sabiyah Broderick (28, Truck Driver, Jacksonville, NC, Lolo Tribe): To round out the cast as a whole, we have Sabiyah.  Are you happy now, internet complainers?  You got someone who didn’t get a college education on again!  Don’t get used to her though, as the fact that she’s about the ONLY person on the cast like this is a problem for her.  Say it with me now, “This makes her stand out, and that’s a bad thing.”  The fact that she seems like she’ll be good in challenges, and I don’t see her tribe spending much time at Tribal Council probably saves her during the pre-merge, but I expect her to be an early-to-mid merge boot, just for personality clashes.  She also doesn’t strike me as the type to let go the things that bother her, and when those things include “laziness”, again something very common on “Survivor”?  She’ll be fun to watch, but I don’t give Sabiyah a particularly long shelf-life.  

Oddly, that about does it.  Pretty solid cast overall, but not one that’s knocking my socks off.  I had stuff to say about pretty much everybody, which is encouraging, but again, maybe these people come off better on paper than they do on camera.  Or vice-versa, we’ll have to see.  And you can see, when we return with the blog following the premiere!  See you then!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Finale: Host with the Too Much

Look, I’ve been pretty clear on my stance on Probst in the past.  I think he is terrible as executive producer, and have criticized his decisions relentlessly.  But when it comes to the argument that he’s become a bad host, whether because he talks too much during challenges, or forces metaphors, or because he plays up the schmaltzy moments too much, I tend to disagree.  The man has his flaws as a host, certainly; no host is perfect.  When he’s on, however, he’s ON, lending dignity and gravitas that the show needs at vital moments.  What few excesses he does have tend to really be minor annoyances rather than any overall hosting problem.  Thus, when people have called for him to resign and let someone else take over, I tend to poo-poo the suggestion.  

After tonight, I’m open to it.  

Jumping ahead a bit, this is not one of the overall great finales.  Precious little happens, and while there’s no particularly BAD moments, there’s nothing that stands out as much either.  Still a solid product I’m glad I watched, but not one I’ll be chomping at the bit to go back to anytime soon.  Yet, with rare exception, the true NEGATIVES of this episode all came from Probst, and if your presences is a net negative, then yeah, replacing you is a valid consideration.  Let’s get into why, shall we?

Having realized that the “new camp” thing adds exactly zero drama, especially when it’s so anticipated the cast brings their entire camp with them, we don’t even try and play it up as a big thing.  Instead, we get everyone making their cases as to why they should win.  Heidi brings up being the last surviving Soka member, finding and playing an idol, and just in general outliving her allies.  All fair points.  I still say she has no chance, but that’s more due to the strength of other’s games making hers look relatively weak in comparison than her having zero argument here.  Yam Yam talks about his social bonds.  Carson notes how he’s been a driving force behind maneuvering Tika to the end game.  Admittedly Lauren and Carolyn don’t get as much of an argument here, the former talking about her determination in being the last surviving Ratu, and the latter talking about her growth and her emotions, but it’s something at least.  They may not make the argument directly, but you can see how it would be parlayed as such.  

In another nice change, there’s no puzzle leading to a challenge advantage this time.  Then again, perhaps that’s because they’ve hidden another idol for these people to go find instead.  Because heaven forbid we have a vote with no idol!  We get the usual hunting montage, but with no find.  We do however, get a lot of mileage out of the “Ironic confessional talking about idol hunting interposed over footage of said contestant being right next to the idol”.  That’s largely because this idol is particularly well-hidden.  The wrappings are not particularly flashy, and the tree it’s hidden in is not particularly significant-looking.  It’s also tied to a branch, forcing people to look up, rather than in a nook or knot-hole.  Point being, I’m not gonna give these players too much flak for missing this one.  Also, it may have taken the entire damn season, but these people have FINALLY learned to poke in with a stick first when idol hunting.  Better late than never, I guess.

Lauren, however, is not just hoping for an idol to keep her safe.  She determines that the Tika 3 need to be broken up, and so goes about building up how much of a threat Carson is, an argument both Yam Yam and Carolyn seem to buy.  Good for her.  

We come to our challenge, and it’s one that I’m actually a little excited for this time.  It’s your standard obstacle course leading into a puzzle, but the structure they have to climb through for the first let is actually fairly intricate, even requiring backtracking at times.  Granted, by the standards of older seasons it’s nothing impressive, but given that the new era can be described as “The Place Where Challenge Grandeur and Originality Go To Die”, I’ll take what I can get.  

While not a thing that particularly annoys me, I will say Probst was a bit nice to Carolyn in this challenge.  He tells her she’s still in it, despite basically everyone else being a leg ahead of her.  Granted, she does get to the puzzle in the end, so this is not as egregious as other instances of false Probst-hope, but still, a tad on the optimistic side.  Carson, who did well in pretty much all the legs, ends up winning, thereby making all that buildup to a possible Tika breakup entirely pointless.  

Carson also gets to go to “The Sanctuary” for spaghetti and various forms of cake.  Here is where we learn that Carson is the only non-heathen amongst the group, as the only one who correctly identifies chocolate cake as being superior to carrot cake.  Carson also gets to take one person with him, and chooses Yam Yam, which I really can’t fault.  He’s a good ally, and good person to strategize with.  Plus, if there’s any need to hide that he and Yam Yam are tight at this point (which I would say there isn’t, but hey, good to cover your bases), Carson can always fall back on “He’s received the fewest rewards this season” excuse.  

Of course, food is not the only order of business at “The Sanctuary”.  Carson winning immunity might have made the breakup of the Tika 3 unlikely, but still something to be considered.  Carson wants them to hold strong, and fears the narrative building around Lauren if she’s allowed to stay in.  Privately, Carson is also worried that breaking up the Tika 3 makes him more vulnerable, which is fair.  Yam Yam, on the other hand, is still on the “Carolyn’s a threat” train, and thinks they should get her out as a result.  Interestingly, both take stances on Carolyn that mirror the two perspectives of her from the fandom as a whole.  Carson notes that, while she did find an idol, her use of it, when looked at in a vacuum, didn’t matter.  She comes across as emotional and untethered; not the sort of person you vote for to win.   Yam Yam notes that because of how she comes across, the fact that she even kept a secret for so long comes across as impressive, and she can argue her game well.  Only time will tell which narrative the jury favors, but it’s interesting how close that conversation works.  

For Lauren, obviously, this outcome is about the worst for her.  Let it not be said she rolls over and dies, however.  Naturally, with herself, Carolyn, and Heidi left alone at camp, they talk strategy.  None of them want to go home, and Carson’s immune, so Yam Yam is naturally the name put out there.  Carolyn would seem to be the most reluctant, but Lauren rightly spills the beans on his throwing out Carolyn’s name.  Carolyn is, naturally, now rather mistrustful and upset with Yam Yam, something that shows on her face and body language when he returns from reward.  For all that Yam Yam has good emotional and interpersonal intelligence, he really seemed to initially misread the room on his return.  Then again, his asking “Are you mad at me?” to the woman whose body language clearly conveys just that was hilarious, and he does quickly pick up what happened, so I’ll let it slide.  

Carson and Yam Yam confer.  Carson’s not a fan of Tika splitting up just yet, but if it does, it seems he’d prefer Yam Yam stay over Carolyn.  Thus, Yam Yam goes and tries to pitch that Carson’s on his side to vote out Carolyn.  Lauren and Heidi seem receptive, but aren’t the most enthused, mostly due to mistrust.  They admit they’d prefer that Tika break themselves up, but don’t believe Carson would actually go for it.  Yam Yam does float out the possibility of voting for Heidi, but this is quickly dismissed, thereby hopefully preventing her from actually going, and me having to give the FINALE of a season the disgrace of an “Ethan Zohn Downside”.  

In the debate of Carolyn, Yam Yam, or Lauren, that’s the descending order I would say to get rid of them in.  Carolyn is established to be good at fire, and is building a narrative of how her perception let her sneak through.  Dangerous in the end.  Yam Yam has been good socially, more so than Lauren, who never really had power.  Granted, her narrative of surviving despite an early target is a threat, but Yam Yam had the same target several times in the early merge area, so I still give him the slight edge.  Really, the only advantages to going Lauren over Yam Yam are that keeping the Tika 3 intact is a shield for Carson (which is only an upside for Carson), and Lauren’s challenge prowess.  I wouldn’t say any of these is a terrible decision, but that would be my rankings.  And hey, we get good mystery between all three, helped along by Lauren going on another idol hunt before we head off to Tribal Council.  

Sorry, I misspoke.  I should rather say we HAD good mystery, until the Tribal Council itself started up.  Lauren becomes incredibly emotional about her time in the game, and all the obstacles she’s overcome.  One does not get this dramatic unless they’re gone and they know if.  Either Lauren is truly dead in the water, or she’s a terrible actor.  

Now, on its own, this could be a good emotional moment.  A woman who fought so hard, pushed to brink by circumstances beyond her control.  It’s good stuff, and for all my jokes about her “terrible acting”, if it’s not acting, it’s raw and compelling.  Too bad Probst has to make it a MOMENT!  Rather than just letting the scene play out, maybe ask a few probing questions to help facility more from Lauren, Probst has to talk about how “This is what ‘Survivor’ is all about!”, and how much it means to Lauren to be here, rather than letting her do it herself.  It’s like Probst doesn’t trust the cast to narrate their own season, and it’s one of my major gripes with him tonight.  The moment was fine without you, Probst.  Add yourself when needed, but you were NOT needed, except to read the votes, at this Tribal Council.  

About the only point in this Tribal Council’s favor is how the editing tricks do make Lauren’s idol bluff plausible.  Compared to, say, Max’s joke on “Survivor Worlds Apart”, given how flashback idols are now a “thing”, and the sort of editing tricks the new era brings, we entirely buy that Lauren might have found an idol without us seeing it.  It’s the one time the whole Tribal Council I thought there was any chance Lauren might not go.  

Sadly for Lauren, she does not, though she does give the remaining four a good heart attack on her way out by doing so, which I have to give some respect to.  That said, I’m not too displeased to see Lauren go here.  She was fine for what she was as a tv character, but didn’t stand out much, either as a strategist or as a visual spectacle, compared to the remaining players.  Her hair was always on point, though.  Still, if that’s the best I can say about you?  Yeah, I’d rather let the more exciting people go to finals.  

Guess nothing interesting happened at camp, as we move directly on to our immunity challenge.  Let’s see, what do we have here?  Oh, it’s Simmotion again.  Ok, time to break out “Standard Matt Complaint #12”.  It reads: “This challenge is fine, but should never be the Final Immunity Challenge.  It lacks the grandeur needed, and is not physically demanding enough.  Bring back Hand on a Hard Idol.”  

We all got that?  Good, moving on.  

Unsurprisingly, Carolyn is out first in the challenge that requires “focus”, though Yam Yam being out second is a bit of a surprise.  He was shown taking the most care in when he dropped in extra balls, and somehow, this challenge seemed like it would fit his skill set, kind of like how the water torture one was a few episodes back.  But now, it’s a showdown between Carson and Heidi, with Heidi ultimately taking the victory, her first individual win of the season.  A big accomplishment for her, only to be undercut by her telling Probst IMMEDIATELY that she’s considering putting herself in fire.  

Look, it’s not that I don’t understand where Heidi is coming from.  As she notes, she doesn’t have a ton of accomplishments.  I even brought up myself that her resume is not as strong as those remaining.  A victory in fire is a big accomplishment.  But a victory in immunity should be bigger.  Not only did you beat four people instead of one, but you didn’t do it by making yourself vulnerable.  I know the show is pushing the narrative of “You need to take risks to win.” since it makes for better tv, but call me crazy, I find more impressive the person who MINIMIZED their risks rather than actively sought them out.  When Erik gave up immunity, we lambasted it as a bad move.  When Brandon Hantz gave up immunity, we lambasted it as a bad move.  When the entire Manono Tribe gave up immunity on “Survivor One World”, we lambasted it as a bad move.  So why not here?

I was never a big fan of forced Final Four Fire Making to begin with, but as the seasons have gone on, I’ve come to loathe it with every fibre of my being, and it’s mostly to do with the culture that’s grown up around it.  This idea that, if you win immunity, you HAVE to put yourself in fire making to have a shot.  That you have to ACTIVELY take yourself out of safety to be considered as a worthy winner.  That a move that, in a vacuum, is objectively bad, is somehow the thing you HAVE to do.  It’s incentivizing bad gameplay, and it’s not what I want to see.  

About the only time I can see such a move making sense is if the person you want out is good at fire making, and ONLY you have a shot at beating them.  And even then, I think it’s still a move that’s debatable at best, as perceived skill at fire making is subjective.  If you aren’t the best at fire, don’t put yourself in fire if you won immunity.  You still maneuvered the pieces where you want them.  That should be respected just as much, if not more, as winning in fire.  But no, as the show presents it, it isn’t, and I am pissed.  I am tired of people like Natalie on “Survivor Winners at War”, or Cassidy last season, being lambasted by the jury for NOT doing so, despite it being actively bad for their games to do so.  Granted, both had other reasons they shouldn’t have won (Natalie for being voted out first and only saved due to the Edge of Extinction, another twist I hate; Cassidy for burning too many jury bridges late in the game), but instead of these reasons, we get the fire-making problem trotted out, and frankly, I’m sick of it.  

Now, there is one major difference between Heidi and some of the examples I’ve provided.  Namely, Heidi is actually SHOWN to be good at fire.  Hell, in a nice bit of foreshadowing, it’s literally the first thing we saw her doing all season.  But it’s not like other people are slouches either.  Carolyn and Yam Yam are both shown to be decent at it as well.  Only Carson, the guy Heidi most wants out, is shown to be actively bad at it, in which case, good.  Let someone else take the risk, and you still get the outcome you want.  You maneuvered the pieces to the outcome you desired.  How is that any less respectable, or less good gameplay, than putting yourself in fire?

Also, I can only conclude that Carson’s 3-D printed fire does not translate to the island.  I kid, I kid.  Carson did indeed practice this, but the old-fashioned way, and again, can’t really fault him in that, even if it’s not bearing fruit here.  

For all my griping, I will say this does lead to ONE good scene.  Yam Yam, seeing Carson struggle, gives him tips on how to make fire.  This is a move that, as Yam Yam admits, might not be the best, since he could very well be put against Carson in fire, and be giving tips to the guy he loses to.  Once again, however, Yam Yam’s heart outweighs his logic, and helps anyway, just as a kind human being.  The pair bond, there’s a lot of hugs and nice words.  It’s a powerful moment, probably the stand-out one of the episode.  

Hey, Probst?  Notice how that moment DIDN’T need you commenting on how touching it was, and in fact stood up all the better without it?  Take notes.  

Our Tribal Council is really just an excuse for Heidi to reveal who’s going into fire, and to her credit, she is showy about it.  She first reveals that Carolyn is NOT going into fire, to which Carolyn is visibly relieved.  And, for all my complaints about Probst this episode, I will say this is one moment where he hits it perfectly in terms of hosting.  He does probe Carolyn with a few questions to get her to go more deeply into what she’s feeling, but doesn’t try to force the moment to be more than it is.  It’s good stuff, and if he goes back to more of this hosting style, I will retract my statement at the top of this blog.  

To no one’s surprise, Heidi reveals that Carson will be in fire, before doing the dumb and going in herself.  For all my complaints about this move in a vacuum, however, it’s hard to argue with the results.  Not only does Heidi decisively win against Carson, she even cracks Gabler’s record from last season, something Probst is quick to note.  Good for her on that front.  I still say it’s an unnecessary move, and not one that’s truly “smart”, but it cannot be denied that Heidi has an unassailable victory after this.  

Our finalists repeat their arguments for why they should win during the day 26 breakfast.  It’s mostly stuff we’ve heard before.  Heidi’s being the last Soka standing/taking out Carson, Yam Yam’s social game, Carolyn playing up the perception of herself to maneuver in the shadows.  That said, in another nice bookend to the season, Carolyn talks to the same producer she did to open the season, and again, we hear from him.  That’s a fun note to go off to Tribal Council on.  

The lack of individual jury questions has really made modern Final Tribal Councils all blend together, and this one is largely no different.  Carson’s expressions on the jury, particularly his indicating to Carolyn what the jury wanted to hear, are pretty much gold, but that’s about the only thing of note.  The jury is nice, but pretty toothless.  Nor do the arguments from our finalists really bear much mention.  All actually do a pretty good job arguing their case, using the tools and viewpoints we’ve seen before.  Heidi strongly advocates for herself, Yam Yam turns on the charm, and Carolyn brings up the emotion/gameplay divide, and articulates how she use her perception by others to her advantage.  Really, the worst gaffe any of them has is Yam Yam at one point saying “Emotions.  I have them.”, and even this gets played off as a joke.  

No, the real thing of note at this Tribal Council is, once again, Probst, who WAY oversteps his bounds.  When the new jury format was first rolled out on “Survivor Game Changers”, one of my main complaints was how Probst was too involved in the discussion, basically giving the criteria for what the jury should discuss in regards to a winner.  Felt too much like production interference in the jury’s decision making.  As time has gone on, Probst has backed of majorly in this area, limiting himself to ensuring the discussion goes on at a good pace, at most giving extremely broad categories the jury can define how they want.  Here, while he didn’t go full “Game Changers”, it did feel like he was more involved in what went into the categories than he did in recent seasons, and again brings up the stink of production having too much influence on the jury.  

But oh no, this is not Probst’s worst sin on the night.  No, that comes when Carolyn breaks down a bit when discussion turns to challenge performance, and she talks about how she kind of failed, since, you know, challenge performance was a weakness.  This COULD have been a gaffe, but Probst instead has to give us the perspective that her coming out and trying mean that she succeeded, rather than failed.  

Probst.  Buddy.  I like you.  I even respect a lot of your talents.  We have our disagreements, but overall, I think you’re a pretty cool dude.  So understand, it comes from my love of the show and the game, not anything against you personally, when I say the following:  

SHUT UP!  FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT IS HOLY, THIS IS THE JURY’S TIME TO SPEAK, NOT YOURS!  THAT PERSPECTIVE YOU BRING IS VALID, BUT IT IS NOT YOUR TIME TO GIVE PERSPECTIVE ON THE PROCEEDINGS.  IF THE JURY AGRESS WITH YOU, GREAT!  LET THEM BRING IT UP!  IF THEY DON’T, THEN IT IS NOT YOUR PLACE TO DO SO!  IN INJECTING YOURSELF WHERE YOU DON’T NEED TO BE, YOU RUIN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A SOLID MOMENT FOR YOUR SEASON, AND COMPROMISE THE INTEGRITY OF THE GAME YOU CLAIM TO LOVE.  IF THERE IS TRULY ANY IOTA OF RESPECT FOR THE GAME, OR THE ART OF THE SHOW, LEFT WITHIN YOU, THIS WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN!  

Hoo, I feel better now.  Anyway, rant done, it’s all downhill from here.  We get yet another 7-1-0 vote, our fourth in a row.  Not sure what it is about the new era that brings that particular voting combination out, but it’s definitely progressed to the point of “pattern” by now.  Somewhat to my surprise, our victor is Yam Yam.  I’d have given Carolyn the best odds, given how well she articulated weaponizing the perception of herself, but she didn’t even make second.  Heidi earns the vote of her ally Danny, which I can understand.  Guess he respected her using him as a shield.  

And this is not to take away from Yam Yam’s win.  His social game was better shown than many, and he did make a very compelling argument about how he read the emotions of others to inform his game.  Not who I would have voted for our of the three, but given how late Heidi’s game picked up, and I guess how baked-in the early perceptions of Carolyn were, I can understand why things ended up the way they did.  Kudos to him; a win well-earned.  

I will say this: This season made the first compelling argument for the immediate after-show, rather than the live reunions of the past.  We mostly hit the highlights of the season one would expect (talking to our finalists, Matt and Frannie, all the early medical issues, etc.), and it’s all pretty standard in general.  But, not willing to let that plot point go un-exploited, Probst and production reveal that Jaime’s idol was a fake planted by Matthew, of course after going through all the steps and drama said idol caused.  Everyone’s reactions are delightfully raw and over-the-top; something you wouldn’t get at a live reunion where everyone knew already.  Now, does this mean I’m done with wanting live reunions back?  Of course not!  There’s ways you could have kept that live reaction in there even in the old format.  Say, film Jaime watching the episode where she finds the idol for the first time, then playing that.  Plus, then you could have Matthew himself talk about that play, rather than just name-dropping him and giving him a well-deserved toast.  So help me, I want to hear from the pre-jury, dammit.  

Our preview for “Survivor 45” is pretty standard.  Cast looks ok.  Not much to write home about.  The dude talking about his great-grandfather robbing the bank seems cool.  The young guy living with his grandmother might make for some fun confessionals.  But nothing that gets me hyped for the season.  Nothing that warns me off of it either, but maybe a bit sub-par compared to recent previews.  That said, I LOVE the logo for the season.  Colorful, but simple in design.  It stands out without being too busy.  Plus, it has an ominous air about it, mostly due to the logo featuring Osten’s nemesis from “Survivor Pearl Islands”, Pelican Pete.  

Before we get into looking back over my pre-season predictions, and seeing how accurate they were, I do want to touch briefly on the predictions I made in the last blog.  This is mostly because, contrary to what some might say, I think I was pretty spot on.  Nearly everything proceeded as I had foreseen it.  Really, there were only two things one could say I “missed”.  Heidi won final immunity, rather than my prediction of Yam Yam.  That said, I still kind of count this given that Heidi went into fire anyway, and that was more overall was the point I was trying to make.  Then I called Carolyn winning this final three, and… Yeah, ok, I take the loss on that one.  I was completely off on how the jury would see things.  Still, one inaccuracy in an otherwise pretty spot-on description?  I’ll take it.  Now, on to the individual predictions, and how they held up.  

Claire-Wrong.  In my defense, I DID say she could be vulnerable if her tribe went to early Tribal Councils.  I just didn’t think they would do so.  

Matt-Wrong, just straight up.  I didn’t overestimate his game sense TOO much, but regardless, he still hung on longer than expected.  

Carolyn-Wrong.  Far more game sense than I had anticipated.  

Lauren-Hung on a bit longer than expected, but I think I nailed how she would play the game overall.  

Danny-I could just copy and paste Lauren’s description.  I was maybe a bit too down on his game sense, but still fairly close overall.  Dude just stuck around slightly longer than expected.  

Heidi-Wrong.  Much quieter, and as a result much longer-lived, than I anticipated.  

Carson-Wrong.  Much better socially, and thus had a longer time in the game, than I anticipated.  

Maddy-Wrong, though for once on this list, someone I overestimated rather than underestimated.  

Bruce-Hard to say whether I nailed his gameplay or not, since we never really got to see it, but I did say he could be a medevac, so I’ll give myself this one.  Lord knows I need all the wins I can get this season.  

Sarah-Wrong, though in my defense, I couldn’t have predicted quite how much her tribe would implode.  

Matthew-I probably undersold his gameplay, but pretty much nailed his time in the game, and again, gave him as a medevac possibility.  I’ll give myself this one.  

Helen-Wrong.  Much worse at managing her threat level than I thought, and out early because of it.  

Josh-Not as wrong as some others, but shorter-lived and less good socially than I had thought.  

Jaime-Wrong on time in the game, but I would say dead on for personality.  

Kane-Wrong.  Just longer lived in general than I thought.  

Frannie-Apart from being an unexpected individual challenge beast, I’d say I got Frannie pretty well in my description.  

Brandon-Maybe a little underestimated, but I’ll call this one “right” for me.  

Yam Yam-In a season where my predictions range from “Kind of similar to how it went, if you squint” to “Completely, 100% off-base”, I’m pleased to say this is my one prediction that was absolutely right.  Weird how my early bet was actually better than AFTER I started watching the season.  

Speaking of, there’s been a lot of praise for this season, and rightly so.  A good mix of character and strategy, generally likable people throughout, and a post-merge relatively free of twists are all good selling points.  Alongside a strong aesthetic theme, this is definitely a good season.  A step up from “Survivor 43” in my opinion.  That said, I’d stop short of calling it “great”, as some are already doing.  This is definitely a season with more positive than negative about it, but there’s a couple of things that stop it from going that far for me.  A few, admittedly, are just nitpicks and/or extremely subjective points.  More gross-out humor than some other seasons.  My personal favorites going out pre-merge, leaving me with a back half that, while I didn’t DISLIKE anyone there, left me with no one I was particularly strongly rooting for.  

However, there are two big points that keep this out of the “Great” category for me.  One is that, while I appreciated the relatively twist-free post-merge, the slog between the mergeatory and probably the Frannie boot was confusing and frustrating.  Take the lesson, show: No major twists post-merge period.  The other, and probably the biggest issue, is predictability.  Individual episodes did ok with mystery, but the narrative made it pretty clear early on, or at least once we got down to three original Tika left, that one of them was going to win.  Not knowing exactly WHO, and those three playing a masterful game that was well-shown keep it out of the “bad” category, but it’s missing the uncertainty I feel it needed to be truly “Great”.  Hardly a bad season, though.  

Now we enter the long off-season, but don’t think you won’t be hearing from me at all!  Keep an eye out for more of the off-season content I so enjoy bringing.  More “‘Survivor’ What-Ifs?” are certainly on the horizon, and if the mood strikes, perhaps something more…

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 10: Jedi of the Sea

I know that “Star Wars” day is not technically until tomorrow (and thus, in advance, May the Fourth be with you all, dear readers), and it does feel wrong to make this the title AFTER Kane left the game.  But hey, Carolyn’s son gave us a drawing of a narwhal.  That’s almost as good, right?  

Naturally, we start off on getting everyone’s reaction to the blindside of Kane.  Oddly, we start off with Frannie. Despite not being close to Kane, she’s not happy at being left out.  She notes, not unfairly, that she’s not particularly close with anyone left, and thus needs to start changing up her game fast.  Time will tell how well this actually goes for her.  

More circumspect is Lauren.  While naturally upset that the old Ratu is down to 2 players, the least of any original tribe, and that her extra vote is now gone, she mostly keeps it to herself.  She saves her irritation for confessionals, and resolves to try and make things turn around for herself and Jaime.  

Speaking of whom, Jaime is the one person Carson feels compelled to talk to about the vote.  And by “Talk to”, I of course mean “Lie through his teeth.”  Carson does a good job spinning to Jaime that the Kane vote was necessary, as he was spreading that she had an idol.  The truth, Carson notes privately, is that HE was the one telling everyone that Jaime had an idol.  Kudos to Carson for doing the smart thing, though, and throwing under the bus someone no longer in the game, thus meaning they can’t contradict you.  Jaime falls for this hook, line, and sinker, but is more upset about the loss of her “idol”, leading to the hilarious moment of seeing the “fake idol” part of her chyron slowly fade away.  Whatever flaws there are with the modern era, the editing jokes remain on point.  

Jaime tells us that now she’ll have to either come clean or find another idol fast, no doubt leading to fascinating maneuvering, and TOO BAD, CHALLENGE TIME!  Your standard obstacle course, this is the “Maryanne Oketch” tribute challenge, courtesy of “Survivor 42”, so named because it includes the obstacle to make you dizzy, which Maryanne memorably attempted to counteract by spinning in the opposite direction.  Honestly a pretty boring and forgettable challenge.  The reward is a trip to “The Sanctuary” for tacos and margaritas, both alcoholic and virgin, along with letters from home.  Way to bury the lead on that one, Probst.  Sure, who cares about surprise?  

It says something about how much interest I have at this point that rather than focus on the challenge itself, I wonder about a hypothetical scenario: Non-alcoholic drinks had to be offered because the show started allowing people 18 and up to compete.  This was done because contestants must obey both US law and Fijian law, with the stricter standard taking priority.  However, what about a Canadian who was younger than 21?  There are several provinces (notably Ontario, where the majority of Canadian contestants have come from thus far) that have a lower drinking age than the US’ 21, and they’re not on US soil.  Do they have to follow the US standard despite 2 out of the 3 relevant countries saying it’s ok for them to drink?  Seems like kind of a raw deal for the Canadian, should they want to imbibe.  

Frannie wins, her third individual win, as Probst is keen to remind us.  I’m sure this will in no way bite Frannie in the butt.  Frannie is also given the task of picking three players to come with her on reward.  Citing wanting the “moms” to get the letters from home, Frannie picks Carolyn, Lauren, and Heidi.  Not bad picks overall.  All have a good excuse outside of “strategy” as to being picked, and all have at least some potential to be allies of Frannie.  I would say that Carolyn is a bit weird, since Frannie last episode seemed to be anti-Tika, and she could have picked Jaime as well with little suspicion.  However, as we see that going against Tika is NOT Frannie’s long-term plan later, I’ll let it slide.  

Rather than follow those on reward, we first check back in at the Va Va camp.  Yam Yam is the most cut up about missing the reward, noting that he’s the only person left yet to go on one.  However, he’s more upset at missing the letters from home.  This gives the show and excuse to give us more flashbacks to Yam Yam’s life outside the game.  Not the most forced I’ve ever seen, but still pretty forced.  That said, I’m willing to let it slide since we get to see Yam Yam’s husband as a result, and dammit, they’re really cute together!  

The bigger story at camp is Jaime, though, how has evidently settled on the “Come clean” route.  I’d have gone for a bluff myself, but I can understand her logic.  With how often the idol makes you a target, there is a good reason to just admit to not having one.  Unfortunately for Jaime, however, she can’t win for losing, as despite the fact that she’s literally telling the truth, no one buys it.  They applaud her acting, noting that she’s out looking for an idol, but Danny in particular is dismissive of the idea.  I’m of two minds about this whole scene.  On the one hand, it is kind of funny that Jaime just keeps being so catastrophically wrong no matter what she does.  On the other hand, does she deserve it?  She’s by no means the best player, but she seems nice, and again, this sort of comedy works best on someone you want to see fail, which is not necessarily the case with Jaime.  

Over on reward, after Carolyn partakes in her virgin margarita (sobriety and all, understandable.  To clarify my thought experiment from earlier: It’s not that I don’t WANT there to be virgin options on alcoholic rewards, I just don’t want someone FORCED to take that option if it’s legal for them to choose otherwise), we get our letters from home.  We actually don’t see what Frannie and Heidi got, all our time being devoted to Lauren and Carolyn.  The former is the emotional moment, with Lauren getting a renewed drive to win for her kids, complete with flashback photos.  Again, kind of forced, but there’s been worse and the kids are pretty damn cute, so I’ll let it slide.  Carolyn’s is more for the comedy.  Rather than be in tears over her letters, she notes how tough it is to get her son to write, with the note he sent her being “The most he’s ever written” according to her.  Hey, kid’s got a career as an artist ahead of him, though.  That’s a pretty sweet narwhal drawing.  

Strategy talk does eventually return, with Frannie putting out the idea of getting out Danny.  Not a bad one, considering he’s the most active player left in the game, and yet also seems very set in his alliances.  Not his insistence on going against Ratu when it may not have been wisest to do so last episode.  Thus, if you’re not with him, you have little incentive to keep him around.  Lauren is, of course, right on board, mostly because any name that isn’t hers sounds good right now.  Heidi would seem like the least-inclined to go for this plan, since she and Danny have been seen to be close, but Heidi tells us that she and Danny have never made any commitment.  Carolyn’s also been working with Danny, but it does behoove Carolyn to keep the Soka/Ratu feud going, to strengthen the position of her and her fellow Tika members.  Plus, as she tells us, she likes Frannie, and thus was to work with her even if it’s not strategically the wisest move.  

We touch base back at camp, basically just to see Jaime come clean to those who were on the reward about her “idol” being gone.  They don’t believe her either.  Poor Jaime.  Can’t win for losing.  This brings us to our challenge, another repeat obstacle course drawing heavily from “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, and thus earning my ire.  People being forced to crawl in the sand with hands and legs bound is at least more unusual that what we normally get, but still, nothing much to write home about.  Danny does do an excellent job on the obstacle course part, but as this ends in a puzzle, he’s stumped.  Yam Yam makes a decent comeback to get to the puzzle, though to me watching, it looked like Probst okayed him to undo his shackles despite not hitting the mat.  Carson, who admittedly also did pretty well on the physical part, ends up taking the win here.  Good for him.  

With Frannie being available to target, and so much conversation centering around her as a challenge threat, naturally Frannie is targeted.  Even Lauren, a supposed ally, is willing to go along with the plan, since again, she’s justifiably in “anyone but me” mode at this point.  This would then seem to be a simple “Danny vs. Frannie” debate, but no!  Paranoia about Jaime’s “idol” reaches an all-time high, with Carson in particular wanting to split votes between Jaime and Frannie, preferring Jaime as the target should no idol be played.  But even THIS is not enough!  We at first get what seems to be a pat “Maybe I’ll play my idol” confessional from Heidi.  Hardly anything to write home about, both because we’ve heard it before, and both because she doesn’t seem to be in danger.  But then Danny engages in frankly kind of a dick move for someone who’s supposed to be his ally.  He lets Heidi in on the “Get Frannie” plan, which is all well and good in and of itself.  However, rather than have it be a conversation, he just tells her that’s where the numbers are without, you know, telling her who those numbers are.  Strongarming someone is never a good look, and serves only to put a target on your back.  When that person is you ALLY?  Time to look for a new ally.  Heidi relays this information to Carolyn and Frannie, but since she doesn’t have the details, they come to the conclusion that Heidi is just snowing them, and intends to vote Frannie.  This galvanizes the pair to try and rally votes against Heidi, nominally roping in Jaime and Carolyn’s Tika allies to add in this cause.  

This, then, puts Yam Yam and Carson in the “swing vote” position, this time between four different options.  As always, let’s consider what the smartest move is here.  First things first, the only truly “Bad” move for these two from what I see here is getting rid of Jaime.  The last thing you want is to risk a tie with the remaining three Soka members down the line, and getting rid of one of them now should definitely be a priority.  Plus, the only reason Jaime is a target is because of an “idol” she does not have.  Can’t fault the players for not realizing that, but in a vacuum, there’s no reason to boot her.  Thus, Jaime is the only truly “bad” option here.  Speaking of things the players don’t know, the idol of Heidi’s that no one knows about makes her really the best target to go for at this juncture.  Even leaving that aside, there’s reasons to go for Heidi anyway.  She’s playing a smart, but subtle, game, and thus a threat down the line.  She’s friends with a lot of people, especially compared to Danny and Frannie, giving her more options, and thus making her a greater threat to your power.  Just below her is Frannie.  I’m not one to advocate a vote purely based on “challenge strength”, but Frannie has shown herself to be a good competitor in a variety of types of challenges, so for once it might be warranted.  Moreover, with Matt being the first jury member, you can bet that she’s being talked up to the jury, and thus may be hard to beat at the end.  The reasons to keep Frannie are that A: She has basically no firm allies at this point, and is therefore less threatening in that regard, and B: It will piss off Carolyn.  In the case of the latter, though, where is she going to go?  She won’t be happy with you, certainly, but with this group left, with a fair number of people with dug-in battle lines, it’s going to be hard for her to move against you anyway.  As for Danny, well, like I said, the main reason to boot him is his inflexibility.  You’re either allied with him, or not.  As Carson and Yam Yam fall into the “allied” category in his mind, well, no reason not to keep the super-loyal guy around.  Admittedly he does need to go at some point, given his frantic idol hunting and being a hog for the face of strategy, making him tough to beat in the end, but another round or two should be fine.  

For all my griping about how lame Tribal Councils have become, the last few episodes have actually been decent.  Sadly this one breaks that streak, being a bunch of meaningless nothing talks.  The only thing even REMOTELY noteworthy is that Jaime tells the truth about her idol again, leading to some pretty good exasperated reactions from the rest of the players.  Also notable that Kane manages to keep a good poker face about this, as he should as a juror.  

Yam Yam and Carson don’t ultimately make the smartest move here, but avoid a super dumb one as well.  Frannie goes home, and I am kind of sorry.  Not that she was my favorite player or the biggest character.  Indeed, it’s kind of unfortunate that most of her screen time got taken up by her relationship with Matt, only for her to relatively fade into the background until this episode.  But she seemed nice enough, and had decent strategic chops.  Really, the big reason I’m sorry for her loss would be because of the poetry of her making the end, given that she was a contributing factor to Matt’s ouster.  The star-crossed lovers, one the first juror, one potentially the winner, would have made for a great story, and it’s a shame that we’re deprived of that!  

I won’t say this episode was bad, but that’s because that would imply this episode made me feel any strong emotion.  Everything was done competently enough, but this was just BORING!  Good mystery, at least, but nothing we haven’t really seen before, and very by-the-numbers logic.  Not the worst, but I expect better from you, season!  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 9: You Only Win Twice

The name’s Arocho.  Yam Yam Arocho.  I’ll have a bottle of well water.  Boiled, not fresh.  Brain parasites, you know.  

Honestly, the idea of Yam Yam as James Bond is oddly hilarious to me.  Not sure why, but it is.  Best guess is how it would match on as a parody.  Like, who would be the “Bond Girl”, or I guess, “Bond Boy” in this case?  Josh, maybe?  He’s an Act One one, at least.  But now I’m getting way off track, and avoiding the episode proper.  

As to that episode proper, here we learn that there is such a thing as being TOO nice about being blindsided.  Jaime, energetic as ever, is quick to congratulate Danny and the rest of Soka on a successful idol play.  All well and good, but she goes on and on about how amazing it is.  She’s making it out like it’s this big move that’s never been done before, when cancelling votes with an idol is literally a move as old as “Survivor Fiji”.  Hell, even if you want to say she was talking about the number of votes cancelled, she’s still beat out by at least Kelley Wentworth’s idol play on “Survivor Cambodia”.  More recent than Fiji, obviously, but still… 8 years ago…  Man, I suddenly feel old.  

For his part, Danny is more pleased than I would be if I was him about how things went down.  Sure, everything all went according to plan, which as Danny correctly notes is a rarity on “Survivor”, but you still burned an idol when it was arguably not necessary (yes, Frannie received the majority of the votes, but they could also have engaged in a split vote to achieve the same effect.  Slightly riskier, perhaps, but possible).  Still, a blindside well-executed whatever else happened, and Danny can be proud of that.  

Lauren and Kane both do better jobs handling the blindside.  Kane is generally pleasant, but publicly doesn’t say much.  Lauren is vocal, but limits it more to what she and the rest of Ratu could have done better, rather than how she’s feeling.  Lauren’s conclusion is that they should have split the votes, which I’m not so sure about.  Splitting the votes only works if Tika is with you, and while they did largely vote with you, basic math says that at least one Tika member must have voted for Brandon.  As such, you have to assume that Tika was at least partially in on the plan to blindside Brandon, and thus not trustworthy with a split vote.  

But no, the old Ratu is convinced that Tika is with them, for some reason.  This of course pleases the old Tika, who admit they’re now firmly in the driver’s seat.  Yam Yam even gives me good title fodder by comparing himself to James Bond, whom he misnames as “Double-Oh Cero” (000 to the non-Spanish speakers among us).  Time will tell how well they can capitalize on this.  

With his game face now on, Kane notes that an idol being played means there’s likely a new one hidden somewhere.  Thus, everyone starts setting off to hunt.  Danny is the most blatant of all, only making token “Getting firewood” excuses.  Everyone sees him doing this, and it makes him a target, so Danny had better hope he’s the one to find an idol.  Danny is confident in himself, however, noting that he’s working harder than anyone in this hunt.  Naturally, such a bold statement can only lead to an ironic fate, and we almost immediately cut to Heidi finding the idol.  Good for her.  

Our next segment is something of a rarity for the new era of “Survivor”: A scene of pure camp life.  Yep, no advantages, no challenges, and practically no strategy talk.  Everyone is gathered around the flag they’re painting, and I have to say, while the name “Va Va” for the merge tribe is ok at best, that flag is killer!  The shield look fits with the more medieval theme of the season, and the things that look like runes down at the bottom are a nice accent.  Yam Yam then gets the tribe onto a round of “Eye Spy”, teaching us the Spanish name for it the meantime.  Yam Yam also shows us how he is too pure for this sinful Earth.  When Frannie spies something beginning with “F”, he first guesses “Frannie”, which is just innocent, and then “Family”, which is really sweet regarding people he’s known for at most 17 days at this point.  For the record, the correct answer was “Firewood”, as Lauren figures out.  

We then get Carolyn giving everyone her backstory regarding addiction, celebrating 13 years sober out on the island.  Speaking as someone who has worked, and still does sometimes work, with drug-addicted populations, that is damn impressive, Carolyn!  You rock, assuming you’re reading this, which I admittedly doubt.  Everyone feels closer to Carolyn as a result, and in the one bit of strategy talk, Carolyn articulates how she’s moved from someone whom no one thought they could work with to someone whom no one suspects strategically.  A really good, accurate assessment, and all with a well-done backstory that felt like a natural progression in the show, rather than forced in for the sake of “feels”.  Honestly a well-done scene that both brings us closer to the characters, and gives us insight into Carolyn’s game and strategy.  Just a highlight of the episode.  I have no notes.  

Ok, that’s not exactly true.  I do have one note.  Carolyn, why are you climbing a giant rock for no reason?  Have you learned nothing from Matthew’s example earlier this season?  You too, Yam Yam, don’t think I didn’t see you on that rock as well!

But what of our third Tika member, Carson?  Yeah, he’s still not doing so hot.  He admits his nausea has gotten better, but he’s just plain feeling out of energy.  One episode of this sort of talk I could dismiss, but with two, I’m getting concerned.  True, he does seem to get better after a substantial meal, but this is now two episodes in a row where Carson’s health has been the focus; rarely a good sign.  We did hear before the season that there would be two medical evacuations, and it could be argued that Bruce and Matthew fit the bill.  Matthew technically quit, however (for justifiable reasons, but still a quit rather than a medevac), leaving us with room for one more potential medical evacuation.  Carson seems cool, so I hope that isn’t the case, but needs to be brought up as a possibility.  

How is Carson going to get access to the aforementioned food?  Why, by negotiation, of course!  We get the reading of Tree Mail, which at first seems unusual at this point in the show’s history, until you realize that the note basically says “There’s a rice negotiation today; better prepare!”  All parties talk it over, with Carson volunteering to sit out due to, you know, illness.  There’s some talk about wanting to split sit-outs relatively evenly between the tribes (it’s stated in the note that four people need to give up a shot at immunity, which does not evenly divide into three tribes), but really, the planning is notable more for how it breaks down.  Some, like Frannie, are reluctant to go along with sit-out plans due to not trusting the other tribes.  Fair enough.  Frannie did technically receive the majority of the votes last episode, so she has a reason to be mistrustful.  Moreover, it leads to a dynamic we’ve not seen before in these negotiations, which makes it more fun to watch than usual.  

Danny, however, has his own reasons for why negotiations break down.  He feels that sitting out for food, since everyone came out here to play.  A sentiment I myself have expressed and agreed with… WHEN YOU WERE SITTING OUT FOR A MEAL JUST FOR YOURSELF!  If it’s a “Gorge yourself on burgers or whatever while watching everyone else play”, I 100% agree with Danny.  You look like a jerk for eating on your own, and you have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to do these challenges.  What do you gain?  Feeling full for a few hours.  Suck it up and do the challenge.  But the rice negotiation is a different animal.  You’re sitting out for tribe gain, which could be done strategically to curry favor, and you’re getting no more benefit from doing so than anyone else.  It’s not a matter of “You came here to play”, it’s a matter of “Doing what’s best for your game”, and in this particular context, sitting out might actually be the best thing for your game.  

All this time spent on the buildup made me think Jeff was going to pull some sort of shenanigans at the auction, but it’s actually more to set up how reluctant everyone was to sit out.  With the rain, Heidi asks if anyone has changed their mind from the plan of not doing so earlier.  Lauren is the first volunteer, and while I’m not surprised she sat out overall, I AM surprised she sat out that quickly.  Don’t get me wrong, given where Lauren thinks she is in the game, and her personality, it makes sense that she would sit out.  However, given how the votes ended up last Tribal Council, and given that she was not targeted partly due to having immunity, I would have thought she’d wait for others to jump first.  Carson joins right in, but everyone else needs some promises.  Most everyone there guarantees the sit-outs safety, Danny even saying “Scout’s Honor”.  These guarantees are, of course, about as genuine as the ones Jason Siska got on “Survivor Micronesia”, but they’re enough to get Kane to jump.  Frannie tries to convince Jaime she’s safe, which initially works, though Jaime backs out of backing out at the last minute.  Heidi ultimately steps in, meaning that for all that craziness, things ultimately went the way they were planned.  Still fun to watch the process, though.  

Our challenge is, of course, a reused endurance challenge, specifically holding a ball on a post with a rolling pin while standing on a block of wood.  That said, for all that this is old hat (and looks kind of goofy, if I may be honest), I will give them credit that they upped the challenge difficulty in a couple of ways.  For one thing, they made the block you stand on smaller, as well as enacted a rule that you had to stand one foot on top of the other.  The other is that, as Probst notes, it’s raining, making the ball slick and harder to support.  So yeah, if we’re going to redo this challenge, better to make it harder.  Even if some of the difficulty was not something the show could have planned for. 

After a close battle, Frannie wins her second immunity.  Now all she has to do is never win immunity again, and my title for this blog will remain true.  

Unsurprisingly, most of our post-challenge strategizing falls along the Soka vs. Ratu battle lines.  Ratu wants to split the vote between Heidi and Danny, with Danny being the preferred target.  Makes sense.  Probably the two most strategically competent players on that side, plus the person who’s won the most individual immunities and the guy who on paper is a challenge threat.  Soka, meanwhile, is all in on getting out Kane, which I have to say is more strategically questionable.  Ok, not going for Jaime I get.  She’s not that great a player, threat of an idol, has been ok working with you in the past; there’s reasons to let Jaime be for the time being.  But Kane?  Guy has barely got his legs under him all season (as he himself admits, he’s never successfully voted anyone off), and has no advantages or idols to his name.  Lauren you know has an extra vote, has proven to be tough in challenges, and is strategically at least competent, if not above-average.  As such, she seems the much greater threat in this scenario.  

Before we discuss Tika’s position in the middle of all this, there’s a couple of shenanigans we need to discuss.  One is Ratu’s movement of idols and advantages.  To plan for a possible Knowledge is Power shake-up (now I think on it, it IS kind of weird the show didn’t try putting it in again after trying twice on “Survivor 43”; not that I’m complaining), they switch everything around, Jaime holding Lauren’s banked vote, and Kane holding what he thinks is an idol, but is actually Jaime’s fake one.  Oh, poor Kane.  Even when he thinks he has some power, the chyron has to mock him by choosing that moment in the confessional to add “One Fake Idol” to it.  For all that I mock, this is honestly decent strategic planning, and I can’t fault them for it.  

The other thing of note is a plan floated by Frannie to potentially flip the vote, working with Ratu to get out Yam Yam.  She correctly notes that Tika is by far the tightest three, with strategically the most power, and thus weakening them is something to consider.  I’d say Carson or Carolyn make more sense to target, but given that Carson’s sick and Carolyn has done a good job obfuscating how smart she is, I can’t fault Frannie too much for this.  Who I CAN fault is Danny, who dismisses the idea out of hand, despite the fact that everything Frannie has said is factually correct.  Danny is dead-set against ever working with Ratu, saying that doing so is like being “Under the Wing of a Dragon”, giving us an episode title I’m still having a hard time believing did not come from Kane.  

This is important to bring up first since it leads into my thoughts about the debate Tika has about which side to choose.  Yam Yam is all for sticking with Soka, wanting Kane gone for writing his name down.  Carolyn and Carson, however, peg Danny as the bigger threat, and thus want him gone instead.  Now, in terms of threat level, I would say Carolyn and Carson have the more accurate view, and thus I was inclined to side with them in this debate when it first came up.  Thinking more about it, however, I’m actually inclined to side with Yam Yam, and it’s 100% due to seeing that conversation Frannie had about flipping on Tika.  This is the first, and so far only, time someone has seriously talked about targeting that particular tribe (Yam Yam being the default decoy notwithstanding), and is the one major threat to their position of power.  You get rid of Danny, and it’s very possible Frannie and Heidi rally with Ratu to start targeting, say, Carolyn or Carson.  Get rid of Kane, however, and I don’t think Ratu does the same thing, with how laser-focussed they are on Soka.  Thus, you remain the swing vote, and keep your power.  Of course we have no idea of Tika KNOWS Frannie has proposed this plan, and as I say, Danny is threatening for a number of reasons, so it’s hardly a bad move to get him out tonight.  Getting out Kane just seems slightly more optimal.  

Our Tribal Council starts out pretty promising.  A forced metaphor here or there, but some good banter and funny moments.  As I called to my friends when I was watching the episode, Danny reveals he was never a scout, hence his earlier “Scout’s Honor” meant nothing.  I will also give props once again to the editors.  Yam Yam talks about wanting subtitles, and sure enough, the editors give him some.  There’s even good mystery throughout, as I can see arguments for either Kane or Danny going.  Where things go downhill is when Probst inserts himself too much into the conversation.  Because humor is boring, I guess, he insists that this cast is full of people ready to have a “Live Tribal” every episode.  Dutifully, our players get up and start whispering to one another.  Decently fun chaos, but I preferred what we had before.  

Chaotic also is a good descriptor for the vote.  No idols played, despite Heidi explicitly bringing hers and receiving votes, but Jaime does burn Lauren’s extra vote.  All to no avail, however, as Kane ends up being the victim.  I’m not overly sorry to see him go.  I would probably get along well with him in real life, and I did enjoy his D&D references, but ultimately, just not that great a player, and so I’ll take the more competent and energetic player staying in the game any day.  I do feel bad for Kane, since he never got his feet under him, but sometimes that’s just how “Survivor” is.  

That said, so much for the fake idol.  Glad we spent so much time on THAT Chekov’s gun, only to never fire it.  

This season continues the upward trajectory it’s been on since roughly the merge.  While it still hasn’t reached the highs of the early season, the moments to just let the characters “be” were a breath of fresh air, we had good strategy to chew on, and even a bit of chaos to keep things interesting.  Minor nitpicks aside, I’m quite happy.   Let’s hope the trajectory continues.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 5: Disarmed

Hoo boy.  This episode.  This is going to be one of the toughest to blog in long time, at least on my end.  While my own subjective opinion is obviously a lot of the focus of this blog, I do try and give an objective assessment of things, or as objective as I can be.  Yet here I find myself with an episode that’s near-impossible to do.  This, you see, is a rare breed of episode.  One that is technically at least proficient, if not perfect, that gives us both great character moments and great strategic moments… And yet is one that I absolutely do not like.  I’m sure you can guess why in general, though it goes a bit deeper than that.  I’ll explain more at the end.  

For now, we deal with the fallout from the last vote, and hoo boy, did people drop the ball on how to handle things.  Yam Yam’s obviously going to be upset, but has a hard time keeping a particularly civil tongue in his head.  Not that he’s going on an expletive-laden rant or anything, but he is talking loudly and harshly to Carolyn about her betrayal.  Carolyn, being who she is, returns the favor, noting that while she may have betrayed him, Yam Yam didn’t exactly make himself the best ally by dictating what would happen.  Both make valid points, but express them in a way that only serves to drive one apart from the other.  

The one person who can be happy about this is Josh.  While he did manage to survive the night, he did also burn his idol.  Luckily, he now finds himself in the swing position.  Carolyn informs us that, while Yam Yam did not treat her as she felt an ally should, she’s still closer with him personally than with Josh.  Her heart is telling her to side with Yam Yam against Josh, while her head says Josh is a more solid ally moving forward.  All reasonable conclusions.  Given that Carolyn has played at least a solid game thus far, possibly even a spectacular one, I’d say this gives her siding with Josh the edge, but time will tell.  

Over at Ratu, we quickly get our promised “Matthew talks about how in pain he is” sound bytes from the preview out of the way.  He talks with Kane about how much pain he’s in, before doing the same with Carson.  I’d normally be concerned that the thing still hasn’t healed up at this point.  True, Matthew did disregard the “Go easy on it” advice from the doctors early on, competing in several challenges, but most of the time he left it in the sling, so it still being a problem would seem concerning.  That said, from what my research turned up, these types of injuries can take up to 8 weeks to fully heal, and that’s in ideal conditions, which it’s safe to say “Survivor” is not.  

Not that this makes it any fun for Matthew.  He cries, both to Kane and to Carson, but a hug from the latter helps him keep moving forward.  We transition away then to Carson talking about his position in the game, and I’m sure that after that little inspirational bit, we’ll NEVER hear about Matthew’s arm again.  

Carson, for his part, is quite happy with his spot in the game, as well he should be.  Despite Matthew having worked with several other people on the tribe, if not every single one at at least some point, he says he’s more emotionally close with Carson than anyone else.  Carson says that people are giving him information, and while we haven’t seen that apart from Matthew’s conversation with him last episode (which was at least half false information anyway), we do see him having a variety of conversations.  Kane and he discuss their various overlapping nerd-doms, and if you happen to be someone who’s NOT a nerd yet is reading this blog, take note: This is like 90% of our conversations when we first meet.  Just listing off various franchises we like, and squealing over the ones we have in common.  

While we don’t see this as an alliance-building moment, it would actually be pretty good for both of them.  Kane just needs any ally he can get at this point, and with how fractured Tika has been, and will continue to be this episode, Carson needs backup plans.  Plus, the pair can act as “nerd shields” for one another.  I’d say Kane gets the better end of that deal, since Carson looks like a more obvious threat at this point, but still, not bad for Carson by any means.  

Ratu had better hope that they can get Carson at least partly in the fold, since we’ll soon see that they’re likely to lose an ally at this point.  Meditation is once again the order of the day for Soka, and we see Danny, rather than Jaime the yogi, leading things.  Danny gives good advice about breathing from the diaphragm, something he says he picked up not from firefighting, but from Brazilian Jiu-jitsu.  To add to the “hidden depths” part of the conversation, Danny talks about having to leave his relatively newborn daughter (4 months) for “Survivor”, which yeah, can’t deny, that takes a lot of determination.  

Getting back to Jaime, though, she tells us if she had to pick any tribe, it would be this one, and not just for their strength.  She says she vibes with them better, evidenced by the whole meditation thing.  Glad to see that work Matthew put into her mattered so much.  

As a result of this bond, Jaime offers to tell Matt everything, an offer that Matt… Says he needs to sit and think about for a while.  Look, I’ve had a lot of sympathy for Matt this season.  Dude gets bad luck after bad luck, most of which are not his fault, at least in part.  But there’s no excusing this, it’s squarely on him.  Dude, when someone offers you info, YOU SAY “YES”!  Even if it’s false, it at least gives you a vague idea of where their head’s at!  It’s not like you’re pushing her; she is literally offering a leg up in the game to you!  This isn’t quite as bad as Penner turning down Lisa’s deal in “Survivor Philippines”, but MAN does it have similar vibes.  

Jaime also can’t understand why Matt is the way he is, and so goes to talk to the expert on Matt on this tribe, Frannie.  Frannie tries to justify it as that just being how Matt interacts with people, which Jaime seems to buy.  Frannie looks of the bright side, however: Someone has finally not seen how close she and Matt are!  Speaking of which, we need to get confessionals about THAT again!  You know, the thing that’s brought up basically every episode?  

I kid, I kid.  This actually does articulate their dynamic in a bit more detail.  Both are clearly smitten with each other, though for now their affection is limited to long hugs rather the more open affection of, say, Amanda and Ozzy on “Survivor Micronesia”, or Boston Rob and Jeff Probst on “Survivor All-Stars”.  No little Ozzlets coming any time soon from these two.  But while Matt is open and blunt about it, Frannie is more circumspect.  She admits to some attraction, and a willingness to date Matt outside the show, but wants to leave it there for now.  And if you don’t think this is enough of a change to merit its own confessional, it at least adds some humor to the proceedings.  We hear from a producer again, this time calling out Frannie for blushing when she talks about Matt.  Touche, producers.  Touche.  

Back at Tika, Yam Yam tries to clear the air with Josh.  For his part, Josh indicates there’s nothing to clear.  The pair don’t trust each other, and that’s about it.  Again, what’s interesting here is that neither side is right.  One’s just playing more emotionally, and one’s playing more logic-based.  Yam Yam sees their disagreement as emotional as much as strategic, and thus wants that emotional air cleared so they can move forward.  Josh, meanwhile, doesn’t think that feelings were involved on either side, but also sees no reason, outside general diplomacy, to pretend they’re on the same side right now.  Again, equally valid ways to view the game, and it’s interesting to see them come into conflict like this.  

Even if the pair can’t get on the same page strategically, though, they can get on the same page emotionally.  Both gay men, Josh and Yam Yam share their stories about coming out, and form a real connection over it.  While Josh tells his story second, I’ll focus on his first because I have less to say about it.  Josh came out his sophomore year in college, explaining that he had trouble feeling safe to come out in his high school, and it seems like his family was pretty cool about it when he did.  Josh uses this to give us his medical backstory in a bit more detail, and while a BIT of a stretch to link the two, they’re still nice stories overall.  Yam Yam, meanwhile, says that while he’s out now, he never came out to his mother (presumably she unfortunately passed away before Yam Yam got married, or possibly I just missed what happened).  He was successful in this due to having no boyfriends before his husband.  And why was this?  It seems Yam Yam had some issues finding himself attractive for a good long time, which naturally made attracting other people difficult as well.  

I really like this story, because it’s something you don’t see a lot in media: Accepting your own body image.  Oh, don’t misunderstand, there’s a LOT of media out there about one’s body image.  However, for pretty much all of that media, the solution to poor body image is “Make yourself over!” or “Diet and exercise!”  Changing yourself to better fit the Western ideal of “beauty”, rather than accepting yourself as you are, and thereby presenting the best image of yourself that you can.  Now, it’s possible that Yam Yam DID do some or all of those things, which is perfectly valid.  But it needs to be stated that these are not the ONLY paths to a good self-image/attractiveness, and this is a message that, I feel, needs to be presented more in media.  There is nothing wrong with diet and exercise, but there is more than just that one path to a good positive image of oneself.  

The pair do bond over this, and we get a bit more strategy from Josh.  While he does see himself as the swing between Carolyn and Yam Yam, he doesn’t want to just leave it up to that.  Thus, he has lied to Yam Yam and claimed he has the birdcage idol from Soka.  His evidence for this is a fake idol he makes in this episode, and showing Yam Yam the parchment from his journey idol.  I’d point out that there should be text on that parchment indicating that it is NOT the birdcage idol, but to be fair, when Josh showed it to Yam Yam, it was dark, and so Yam Yam may not have read it thoroughly enough to catch that.  In addition, we see that while Yam Yam is factoring that possibility into his decision-making, he doesn’t fully believe Josh either, so we’ll see how this plays out.  

Off to our challenge, and if you were guessing it would be an obstacle course followed by a puzzle-like thing at the end, CONGRATULATIONS!  You’ve seen any tribal episode of “Survivor” in the modern era!  

Honestly, the only thing worth talking about here is that one of the obstacles is the rope-platform see-saw, aka the “Let’s Break Missy Payne’s Leg!” Obstacle first seen on “Survivor San Juan del Sur”.  For a show that’s lately been pretty good about taking out challenges with a high risk of injury, it AMAZES me that this obstacle, which actually DID injure someone, keeps getting brought back.  Maybe it’s because it was designed by a “Make-A-Wish” kid, but that challenge had other elements to it to honor the kid.  Why keep using the one known to cause injury?  What next, are we going to see Schmergenbrawl from “Survivor Samoa” come back?

The misdirection as to who will win and lose is not as good as it has been in previous episodes, since all we got from Ratu is “Matthew’s in pain, while Carson’s in a good spot”, or exactly zero strategy content.  That said, Jaime trying and failing to get in with Soka is JUST enough that, coupled with Yam Yam repeating Sarah’s “We need to win or I’m out” confessional, that I could see either Soka or Tika losing.  

Indeed, all three get to the “puzzle”, this time a table maze worked by two people, pretty much dead-even.  But while I call this a “puzzle”, it seems it is not “puzzle-y” enough.  Tika really blows it here, and that’s in SPITE of wisely having Carolyn as far away from the crucial part of the challenge as possible.  

Ratu pulls out a narrow victory here, which only matters because this challenge has another “Journey” to send people on, and Ratu has thus won the right to pick who goes by coming in first.  From themselves, it’s Brandon.  Wise choice.  Only Kane would seem to be strongly against him at this point, and if he DOES get some advantage, 10-1 he tells you all about it, so no real threat there.  From Tika, it’s Carolyn, who will return before Tribal Council.  Again, solid call.  She seems to be the weakest and most volatile overall, so giving her potentially more power can only lead to chaos on the enemy tribe, particularly useful in the (admittedly now unlikely) event of a later merge this season.  But the Soka pick, Danny, I’m still trying to parse out the logic of.  I suppose he would seem the most outwardly volatile of Soka, but then again, JAIME, someone from your own tribe, is RIGHT THERE!  Why not send her along, to help her potentially stay in the game longer?  Granted, they can’t KNOW she’s not vibing with them as much anymore, and may be able to guess that those swapped were given idols given Sarah’s elimination, but still, some signal that you’re looking out for her might be appreciated!  But no, just drive her further into the arms of the other tribe, I’m sure THAT won’t backfire down the line…

We come back NOT to the journey, but still at the challenge.  Matthew wisely sat this challenge out due to the arm-injury aggravation potential of the obstacles, but it’s enough that Probst wants medical to come and have a look at him anyway.  Medical’s assessment is slightly different from the one I researched, indicating this is a soft-tissue tear that’s likely to take a while to heal.  As it’s not life-threatening, Matthew isn’t being pulled, but all present agree that the pain is going to take a major toll if he stays in the game.  The choice is up to Matthew, and we cut away, surely meaning that while this needed to be addressed, it’s not important to the episode, and won’t make for a predictable ending whatsoever…

We STILL avoid the journey, instead coming to Tika, to get the riveting discussion between Josh and Yam Yam.  Shock of all shocks, they discuss voting out Carolyn, the one person who isn’t present!  Who could have seen this coming?  Yeah, I get why this needed to be shown, but it’s exactly the conversation we could have assumed was happening even if we hadn’t.  

More interesting, surprisingly enough, is the Journey.  Yeah, I know, but trust me, I haven’t been replaced by a pod person.  Brandon talks about needing to figure out how to play this.  He knows he probably has the chance to bring back something, but isn’t sure how he wants to play it to his tribe.  A decision rendered moot by the fact that production, for once, makes a very smart decision.  It seems they have a time machine, since they read my blog about the problems of modern “Survivor” and decided to implement one of my ideas.  Or rather, implement my suggestion to reuse a twist from “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”, and have the Journey just be, well, a journey.  There’s a bit of food, but no real “advantage” outside of the chance to talk to the other tribe and strategize.  

And oh, what strategizing there is!  Despite her talkative nature, Carolyn doesn’t really give Danny or Brandon much, basically just saying she’s on the outs.  Danny and Brandon give lip service to not wanting her to go, before pretty much completely ignoring her and talking to each other about the big physical guys being threats at the merge, and thus the pair needing to stick together.  Not a bad conversation to have eventually, but maybe, you know, NOT IN FRONT OF CAROLYN?  A WOMAN YOU LITERALLY CALL NOT A THREAT TO HER FACE?  Yeah, shock of all shocks, Carolyn’s not happy about this, and vows not to let the strong guys take over the game.  This consequently turns her away from Josh, seeing him as one of the “strong guys”, particularly when compared to Yam Yam.  A fair assessment, but given how thoroughly Yam Yam distrusts her, I might just cut her losses now and hope to make up some more allies at the merge.  

As an aside, I’m particularly surprised to see this behavior from Danny, who’s been playing a pretty solid game up until this point.  True, Brandon seemed to be driving the conversation, most of the verbal gaffes were his, and this sort of gameplay we’d expect from him, given his game smarts demonstrated so far.  But it’s not like we saw Danny do anything to mitigate the damage or bring Carolyn into the conversation.  He can do better, is what I’m saying.  

Carolyn is brought back to camp, and sets about mouthing her desire to get rid of Josh to Yam Yam whenever Josh’s back is turned.  She’s not subtle enough, however, so Josh pulls out his fake idol and note again to try and bluff his way through.  Granted, Josh is also somehow claiming his fake idol will save him at the merge, which if he’s saying he will play it tonight not sure how that works.  Chalk it up to a brain fart and move on.  Now everyone’s not sure who to trust, with Yam Yam in particular noting that he doesn’t really trust either person at this point.  It’s a mystery of a cluster, all leading up to an exciting Tribal where literally everyone seems at least somewhat vulnerable, a messy vote-off for the history books, and…

And there’s like three minutes left in the episode.  Yeah, much as I wanted to believe everything would be ok, the timing confirms it.  There’s not enough time for anything resembling a Tribal Council.  Matthew has decided to take himself out of the game.  That’s basically the episode.  Oh sure, we get some lip service to him from Tika, and some talk about how they’re all not sure where they stand with one another heading forward, but really, this is the emotional climax of the episode.  

So on the surface, you can see my problem.  We got great insight into the characters, fantastic editing (timing of the climax notwithstanding), and overall just a lot of good conversations and funny moment.  And yet, because of Matthew’s exit, I cannot, in good conscience, say I enjoyed this episode.  

To a certain extent, this is to be expected.  Your favorite goes out, you’re not happy.  But there’s a bit more to it than that for me.  Look, I’ve dealt with a lot of scenarios in my time.  I’ve had my favorites be voted out first.  I’ve had my favorites make dumb mistakes that cause me to slap my forehead.  I’ve had my favorites be absolutely vilified by the audience and players alike, making the season tough to watch.  I’ve had my favorites get medically evacuated.  I’ve learned to live with all that.  But I’ve never had my favorite player quit.  

And make no mistake, this is a quit.  Sure, it’s not PRESENTED that way.  The show is doing the Dana Lambert (“Survivor Philippines”) thing where they understand the reasons why, and don’t vilify that person as a result, as they do many other quitters.  But medical did not pull Matthew.  They explicitly say they are not doing so.  This was his decision, and while I can understand and respect it, it is still, technically a quit.  And that’s hard to reconcile for me.  

And the worst part is that you can’t even say it was bad luck.  The injury was 100% his own fault.  As he himself says in his final words, he shouldn’t have climbed the damn rock.  

But then there’s the other issue: Who do I pull for now?  Like it or not, “Survivor” is a lot more fun to watch when you’re pulling for someone.  The trouble is that the other person whose game I was really liking was Claire.  You may have noticed, she’s not around any more.  Yep, we’re heading into the merge, or possibly that stupid “Merge-Atory” thing the show keeps doing, and my favorites are all gone.  It’s not to say that I DISLIKE the people left.  Indeed, this is a very likable, very engaging cast I’m happy to see do well.  But I just kind of like them all equally, and they don’t GRAB me the same way people like Matthew and Claire did, and that just damages my overall investment.  

Are there any upsides to any of this?  Two, actually.  One, the chaos between the remaining Tika members and Josh is fun to watch, and it looks like that will continue to the next episode, so I suppose that’s a plus.  And like I said, it’s not like this remaining cast is unrootable, just all equally rootable for me.  I suppose Yam Yam I have the most fun watching of those remaining, and I think Heidi is playing an understatedly good game.  But, no offense to either of them, Matthew they ain’t.  Two, this does blow the field of who can win WIDE open.  Oh sure, there’s a few who are pretty much out of the running (Brandon springs to mind), and a few who will move up to frontrunners now (Carson and Carolyn come to mind), but Matthew was clearly the “winner edit” of the season up until now.  His exit will rapidly re-work everything about the meta of the game, and that, at least, is somewhat exciting.  

We’ll see how I feel next week, though.  Hopefully I can get some of the enthusiasm back with some distance.  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 3: We Have Wormsign!

One of the common criticisms lobbied at new-era “Survivor” is that it’s “Too nice”.  Sometimes related to the lack of drama, sometimes in relation to the backstory segments being too touchy-feely.  This is a criticism that I personally don’t agree with, but after tonight, I think I can see where people are coming from.  Even by my standards, people were a bit too nice.  

Before we delve into the love-fest, though, it’s time for another edition off…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Being honest, I nearly didn’t include this one, since I did touch on the event itself, and this is more of a missed joke opportunity than me neglecting part of the episode.  But I did love the joke, so I’m throwing it in a week late, timing be damned!  Long story short, while I discussed Danny opening the birdcage and getting his idol, and discussed the strategy related to it, I neglected to discuss Danny’s reaction to finding said idol.  The show really IS loosening up in references to past seasons, as Danny gives us the Mike Holloway trademark “Happy Dance” from “Survivor World’s Apart”.  Not that I strongly want that season in particular referenced, but hey, you do you, Danny.  

For all my snark earlier on, “Happiness” is probably too strong a word to describe Tika coming back from Tribal Council.  Yes, Yam Yam and Carolyn do celebrate, but they have the decency to wait until they’re in private, so I won’t hold that against them.  Publicly, they simply call for tribe unity, and state that the vote was not meant to exclude anyone in particular.  The sentiment is publicly echoed, but Sarah, being the person explicitly left out of that last vote, is not buying it.  Since Sarah possesses common sense, she rightly blames Carson, the swing vote, for her position.  Paradoxically, she states she trusts Carson the most, though she mainly uses this as evidence for how good he is at the game, and why she needs to watch out for him.  All conclusions I have to agree with on her end.  

Keeping the happy train going, we cut over to Ratu.  Here, we see that happiness and bad gameplay go hand-in-hand, as Kane, already on the outs, decides to dig himself deeper by singing “O Canada” for his tribe.  Not that he’s a bad singer or his tribe hates it or anything.  No, the problem is that in doing so, Kane outs himself as a Canadian.  This is a problem because, at the time this was filmed, the most two recent winners (that these players saw) were Canadian, meaning being Canadian now makes you a target.  And if you don’t believe players would be so petty as to target someone based on something like nationality, I refer you to the fear that remains to this day of women’s alliances that sprung to great prominence after only ONE successful one.  Unless you’ve got an accent, the only way one would be outed as a Canadian is if there happened to be a spelling challenge, which with the way challenges are being designed these days, seems unlikely.  Might as well minimize your threat level, and say you’re from Wisconsin or something.  

Kane is not just Canadian, though.  No, Kane is a Canadian NERD!  Because that demographic DEFINITELY doesn’t also get targeted on “Survivor”.  In this case, Kane’s nerddom tends towards the “Dungeons and Dragons” side of things, meaning he is very happy to have the sword part of the Immunity Aegislash.  Kane talks about wanting to be the hero of the game, and how it related to the sword.  He does a bit of play-fighting with it in front of the tribe.  Knowing a good opportunity when it drops in their laps, the editing team wisely cues up sound effects in keeping with the motions Kane makes.  I would mock this, but if I’m going to be honest, I would do the exact same thing were I in Kane’s shoes, so no faulting him there.  

Even switching the focus to Brandon does not get us off the happy train.  Brandon goes fishing, and while he’s not getting Rupert Boneham (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) amounts of fish, any food is good food.  He also uses the time to discuss how he doesn’t want to be seen as just a football player, and describes himself as a “Renaissance man”.  While I would dispute some of the things he uses as examples of why he is this way (while using different skill-sets, things like snowboarding and scuba diving are enough in the athletic realm that I would say they do not a Renaissance man make), I cannot deny that cooking and playing piano are pretty far out of the realm of what one would expect the skill set of a professional football player to do, so yeah, he’s got a fair point on this one.  

Soka is probably our least happy tribe out of the three, but I think that’s mostly because Frannie and Matt are monopolizing the happiness for themselves.  We see them going off and flirting with one another yet again.  We don’t dwell on it too long, though, as we instead cut back to camp, where the remaining four are having the obvious conversation of “Hey, shouldn’t we team up against the obvious pair who will never vote for each other?”  Claire in particular is gung-ho on this.  She’s the most pointed in how bad a strategy it is, and dismisses them talking about “Nerd Stuff” like “Star Wars” instead of playing the game.  Ok, I agree it’s bad strategy, but the nerd bashing is low.  In particular, it’s low coming from Claire, who mentioned in her bio that she listens to audiobooks of “The Hunger Games” to go to sleep, which I would say definitely falls into the category of “Nerdy”.  Pot.  Kettle.  Black.  

Danny, however, is going a step farther in the strategizing.  He has taken out the fake coin from the birdcage, presumably replacing it with rocks or something since it still looked full in the shots we saw.  He has wrapped the coin in paper and green string, the paper stating the traditional “Congratulations, you have found a Hidden Immunity Idol” message.  The latter seems odd to me, since from the messages we heard read aloud the ones this season DESCRIBE what the idol looks like, but I’m guessing they included a fake message in there to allow for plays such as this.  All this he has hidden in the roots of a significant-looking tree, because Danny has watched a season of “Survivor” that aired in the past 5 years.  

To top all this off, Danny then eats the part of the note detailing the coin is fake.  A bit over-the-top as a disposal method, and normally I’d say this is at least a foolproof way to prevent someone figuring out your scheme.  However, Carolyn is on this season, and we know from last episode that she’s willing to search that shit.  Danny better hope it passes through quickly.  And to those who ask how it might not pass through that quickly, I would remind you that it took Gervase two weeks on “Survivor Borneo” to have one bowel movement.  Fiber is not high in the diet of these people.  Stuff passes slowly.  

Speaking of stuff passing through, it seems Brandon’s fishing skills are not enough, as they have all collectively decided to eat worms.  Ok, so it’s presented more as a “Get the most out of your experience” event rather than “nourishment”, but still.  Jaime is the main instigator here, but pretty much everyone eats one.  Matthew is the only exception (that we see; he might have eaten one offscreen), making him instantly go up in my estimation.  

This, then segues into Jaime talking about the fun she’s trying to have here.  The earthworm eating is one thing, but it goes further than that.  She gives us what she calls the first “‘Survivor’ Houseplant” by putting some sand and a sapling in a half coconut shell.  Seems kind of pointless, but hey, it is clever and functional, and I suppose you need to do something to pass the time out there.  Props for giving us something we haven’t seen before.  

All this is very much in Jaime’s wheelhouse.  She’s the Plant Mommy, you see.  She even has a necklace to prove her bona fides in this area.  And, despite not eating a worm that we saw, it seems she even has a kinship with Matthew, owing to both of them loving the experience so much, talking with wonder about what they’re looking at as they hike together (Matthew’s arm wisely back in the sling.).  Even if he won’t partake of the worm himself, Matthew will help out Jaime in her worm-eating endeavors.  He points out a muddy patch by the water well where it seems like there might be some good worms.  But it is not worms Jaime finds, but a hidden immunity idol, specifically the one Brandon played in episode 1!  The pair agree to keep this between them, and Jaime talks about how strong this makes their bond, putting both of them in a good position.  

Good scene overall, but I want to give particular props to the producers on this one.  I rag out of love, but it HAS been getting annoying how predictable the “Significant Looking Tree” hiding place has been lately.  While not unheard-of, the water well is at least a variation, so kudos to them for…

KNOCK!  KNOCK!  KNOCK!

(Matt answers door)

MATT: Oh hey, Matthew.  I was wondering when you’d show up.  

MATTHEW: You knew I’d be coming?  

MATT: Eh, sooner or later, some contestant always improbably shows up at my house.  Given that we live in the same metropolitan area, you seemed most likely if I were a betting man.  No airfare to pay.  

MATTHEW: Ah, good deductive skills!  

MATT: So, what specifically brings you here?

MATTHEW: Well, I heard you giving production some credit for the idol hiding spot, so I just wanted to make sure it went where it was due.  

MATT: Meaning?

MATTHEW: That idol’s a fake.  I planted it myself, to help build a bond with Jaime.  I found the real one in…

MATT: Let me guess, a tree?

MATTHEW: Yup.  

MATT: Figures.  When the superfans are more creative than the production team…

MATTHEW: No doubt.  

MATT: Speaking of creative, any chance I could have a go on that backyard plywood snake maze?

MATTHEW: Sure thing, man!

(Several Hours Later)

Ok, well, this blog’s going to be late.  Talking a little more about Matthew’s move here, it is pretty standard in plan, but masterful in execution.  Dude realized there were similar looking beads on the tribe torches, and so chopped some off to use as the fake.  Given that he has the real note, he was able to use that as well.  His misdirection of Jaime seemed very natural, and he mainly used it as a way to secure an ally without giving that ally real power.  A bit cruel to lead her on?  Perhaps, but that’s the game, and given how much of a nice guy Matthew is, it’s nice to know that he CAN be cutthroat when he needs to be.  Certainly makes him go up as a game player in my estimation.  

For as impressive as Matthew’s move was, though, it pales in comparison to the editor’s here.  Based on what we saw, all this plotting and planning of Matthew’s was something that happened some time last episode.  Possibly it happened after the Tika Tribal Council from last episode, but we have no way of knowing for certain.  Either way, it would have been all too easy for them to play this exactly the same way they did Danny’s: Show us all this happening to make a payoff for later.  Now, while I’m the first to complain about the show not adequately foreshadowing stuff, here I’m ok with it.  Unlike the decision as to who gets voted off, this is not something we NEED to hear about ahead of time.  It wasn’t relevant until now, so it wasn’t shown until now.  On top of that, we get emotionally invested, since we were fooled right along with Jaime.  We need SOME foreshadowing for who gets the boot each episode, but for things like idol finds, more of the fooling of the audience, please!

Danny is having less luck with his fake idol.  Soka is doing a big group search for the thing, but no one is looking.  Danny even has to suggest that they check in the roots of significant looking trees, as opposed to just giving them a visual once-over.  I’m with him 100% when he complains about how these people don’t know how to look for idols.  They still aren’t even using sticks!  

Eventually, Matt finds the coin, and falls for it hook, line, and sinker.  He’s more subtle about hiding it than Brandon was in episode 1, but since Danny saw him nearby, he still figures it out.  Danny then proceeds to out Matt in front of everyone, because you know, the target just wasn’t big enough on Matt’s back.  He does use it to bond with Matt, which I can support.  His plan may have backfired, however.  Matt was a target already, as we saw, but with him having what most believe to be an idol, he’s now less safe to vote for.  The majority have enough votes to do a split, it’s true, but then the whole endeavor is largely pointless unless you go for Frannie on the re-vote.  Moreover, it might make people reconsider their allegiances.  Josh (yes, I’m sure there’s a Josh on this season) says that with Matt no longer being a safe vote, he might have to work with him instead of against him.  Brilliant play, Danny!  Take the target off of someone who wasn’t yourself, and leave it to an open field that includes yourself!

Also, can we just take a minute to be sorry for Matt?  Poor guy is on the outs of his tribe due to playing with his heart more than his head, loses his first two votes of the season (partially not his fault, as well), then gets his first piece of good luck in finding an idol, only for that idol to be a fake.  I know Spencer Bledsoe (“Survivor Cagayan”) is the show’s go-to Charlie Brown character, but I think Matt surpasses him as of this episode.  Unfortunately, unlike Spencer where it was kind of cathartic for him to get repeatedly denied given how arrogant he was at the start, I just feel back for Matt.  He did little to deserve this (the second vote loss was all him, though, and the pairing off with Frannie is 100% on him), and seems like a pretty nice, humble guy.  Just overall much less satisfying to see him get repeatedly screwed like this.  

I did say this was the happy episode, right?  Tika is here to bring us back to that vibe.  The tribe as a whole gets along, everyone says so!  When Yam Yam brings up a fear that his snoring will lead to him getting voted out, everyone (particularly Carolyn) emphatically denies this will happen.  Pretty much everyone gets a confessional about how well they gel; even Sarah gets in on the action.  She’s the only one who even mildly harshes the vibe, though.  She notes she’s still on the bottom, and while she is still trying to find an “in”, most of her hope rests on the tribe winning immunity.  A tall order, she tells us, unless the challenge is tailor-made for their tribe.  

Luckily for Sarah, this challenge ends in a puzzle, which seems to be Tika’s specialty.  Four tribe members start in the water, pushing a large hollow crate to the underside of two poles, where one tribe member releases a key from a spring by climbing on top of such a box.  Once ashore, they dig under a log and unlock a platform.  There, they must stack boxes with colored sides so that no side has a duplicate color.  The first teams to do so win immunity, varying amounts of fruit and tools (depending on if they get first or second place), and in the case of Tika, flint.   Losers have Tribal Council and the loss of flint awaiting them.  For all that this is the generic “Obstacle course followed by puzzle” we’ve come to know and loathe, this one at least has a cool new element in rolling the crate through the water.  It’s something we’ve not seen in a challenge on US “Survivor” at least (it may have come up on an international version; I don’t know), and helps make the challenge more memorable than your average outing.  

For all that I’ve praised Matthew this episode, I do have to ask: WHY ARE YOU THE ONE CLIMBING ON TOP OF THE CRATE?  Sitting out Lauren rather than yourself I get.  The shoulder seems to be healing, and Lauren has proven to be not so good in the water, which makes a significant portion of this challenge.  But what do you bring to crate climbing?  This is not a particularly skill-based part of the challenge.  All you need is height, where both Kane and Brandon have you beat.  Jaime may be shorter, but she’s also lighter, and therefore less likely to GRIEVOUSLY INJURE HERSELF IF SHE FALLS, UNLIKE YOU!  I’m willing to cut you some slack since your shoulder seems mostly better and you’re keeping it in the sling outside challenges (though you’ll note it does hurt again during the digging portion, though), but maybe DON’T do the riskiest portion of the challenge where you bring nothing particularly special to the table?  

Eh, I shouldn’t be worried, though.  There’s decent mystery as to who will lose between Soka and Tika, but Ratu has had basically no strategy talk outside the one scene between Matthew and Jaime.  Even that didn’t touch on targets, so it’s hard to count that.  And yep, Ratu comes in first place.  The race between Soka and Tika is tighter.  Soka, unsurprisingly given their challenge prowess, takes an early lead, helped by Tika’s box going off-course.  All are in it on the puzzle, though, and that’s where Tika shines.  When Ratu finishes first, both sides unabashedly go over to look.  This, combined with Tika’s general puzzle prowess, leads to them getting second place.  Probably the most obvious outcome (between Sarah’s comment about needing a miracle, and Soka having by far the most strategizing this episode, they were probably favored to lose), but also the most intriguing.  It’s always nice when there isn’t one dominant tribe and we get to see dynamics in all three.  Nicely reminiscent of “Survivor 42”, and given that I maintain at this point it’s the best season to come along since “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, I’m not going to complain.  

Having conspired to make Matt as big a target as possible, once they’re all back at camp, Danny sets about targeting… Claire, for sitting out every challenge so far, heavily implying that she’s the weakest tribe member they have.  Not that I don’t see the logic, but then what was the point of going so hard against Matt?  By making it look like he has an idol (since only Danny knows it’s a fake, and revealing it as such to everyone else would put suspicion on him), you now throw out an alternate target possibility, which means you are potentially another possibility!  Sure enough, Frannie is not 100% on board with this plan, and informs Claire that she’s being targeted.  And who does Claire get mad at for this?  Danny and Josh.  True, the alternate target ultimately settles on Josh rather than Danny, but this could EASILY have backfired.  Don’t get me wrong, he pulled the move itself off masterfully, but to what end?  Maybe he can turn this around to a long-term gain, but for now, it seems pointless at best.  

Why is Josh being targeted, you ask?  According to Heidi, our swing vote for tonight, he’s “shifty”.  Not that we’ve seen evidence of that, but again, there’s barely any evidence of Josh on this season.  More logically, Heidi notes that she’s closer with Claire than Josh, but Clair is more of a challenge hinderance.  With Danny saying he’ll go with whatever Heidi wants, Heidi now has the power.  Yes, someone we BARELY remember more than Josh, and that’s mostly because she’s the one who first started fire for the tribe.  

I kid, I kid.  Heidi is in a good position here.  Not targeted at all, and no matter the outcome, has the twosome of Matt and Frannie she can target with whatever three are left.  On the whole, I would say it’s slightly smarter for her to keep Claire around, since she says she’s closer with her, as opposed to being the third with Danny and Josh.  Gives her more decision-making power.  Not to mention, I don’t buy the idea of “addition by subtraction”, wherein a tribe gets better in challenges by losing someone.  Particularly in this case, where the tribe will still be able to sit one person out, given that Tika is down to 4 people.  Wouldn’t fault either move, though.  

Not content with asking the players for metaphors, Probst is now supplying the metaphors himself!  He compares the game to the gargoyle above the “Walk of Shame”, in what may be the most forced metaphor this show has ever seen.  Probst, drop the metaphors overall, but ESPECIALLY drop your own.  

For all my snark, this is actually a pretty good Tribal Council.  Discussion is, for once, centered on the dynamics of the tribe, and in particular challenge strength vs. loyalty.  I will also give Claire credit that she argues effectively for why she should stay, noting that “Tribe Strength” doesn’t just mean challenge strength, but loyalty.  How she has this over Josh, I don’t know, but it’s about the most effective argument she can make.  Also, kudos to Heidi’s poker face.  When Claire asks her is she’s changed her mind from earlier that day, Heidi stone-cold says she hasn’t, despite the fact that she’s going to vote for Claire momentarily.  None of this is the stuff of legend, but its all well-done and engaging, which I’ll take.  

Claire plays her shot in the dark despite Heidi’s poker face, and I really can’t fault Claire here.  Since Matt can’t vote, it’s up to Frannie, Heidi, and Danny who will go home.  If they vote the way Claire wants, her vote doesn’t matter.  If they don’t, this is her only chance of survival.  More justified than Jaime’s play in episode 1, but also less successful.  Claire is not safe, and then voted out unanimously.  I am really sorry to see her go.  A pre-season winner pick leaving is never easy, and nerd-bashing aside, I did really like Claire.  She had good strategy for the most part, and it hurts to only participate in one challenge (and an abbreviated reward challenge at that) before leaving.  About the only good thing about this is that Josh gets more screen time hopefully, since it would have been a low blow for him to leave without us really getting to know him.  

While perhaps not reaching the heights of the first two episodes, this one still holds up.  A bit touchy-feely maybe, but fun nonetheless, with clear dynamics and good strategy.  So far, liking the season!

The spice must flow.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 1: La Cage aux Fools

To all those who complain that the show is too “game-botty” now.  To the people who claim they “only cast superfans” who “only make the correct moves”.  To those who claim this is now nothing more than chess on tv.  To those people, I present to you the premiere of “Survivor 44”: A chaotic mess that was nonetheless very entertaining.  

Friends, readers, welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  Today, my knee-jerk opinion shall be on the premiere of “Survivor 44”.  Let’s recap it, shall we?

We kick things off by seeing that “Survivor” is taking a cue from YouTube, and letting some of the behind-the-scenes production show to be more relatable.  Carolyn is supposed to bring us in by just talking about herself.  You know, where she’s from, what she does, the basic stuff.  So enthused is Carolyn, though, that she can’t even manage to do that, and breaks out into hysterics.  She asks the poor producer for clarification, and the poor guy just tries to give examples, only making Carolyn break down further.  

While fairly generic overall, with the likes of Claire giving us the “Here’s why I’ll be good at this game” moment, that’s not the only fun moment our introduction to the season brings to us.  Jaime tries to shill for Windows by talking about speaking things into existence and punctuating them with a “Bing”.  Give it up, Jaime.  Google has won.  Most fun, however, is the “How excited I am to be here.“ montage.  Would be a pretty standard thing, were it not for the fact that the editors flawlessly intercut multiple confessionals from multiple people into one big sentence.  That’s some good editing, right there.  

Proving that the show really is willing to acknowledge old seasons, we get a montage of some of the greatest moments from some of the most beloved seasons past, and also “Survivor Edge of Extinction”.  

Ok, ok, I’ll be fair.  For all the crap I give that season and all the crap I say it deserves, the bit they focus on is Reem, and if you’re going to HAVE to acknowledge that season, Reem is a good part to acknowledge.  

Getting to the mat, we’re formally introduced to our tribes, and get more “excited to be here” confessionals, Matthew on Ratu and Yam Yam on Tika being highlighted here.  We’re then introduced to our now standard challenge to earn a pot and flint.  Pairs from each tribe will race under a bamboo crawl to a mud pit to retrieve pairs of puzzle pieces.  Once everyone has run the course, two members will solve a puzzle, arranging geometric blocks into a rectangle.  Then, three other tribe members will need to hurl hoops from the ground off over a pole, with a crosspiece near the top to make it difficult.  Not the grandest challenge, but these early episode challenges usually aren’t.  We’ll see how they do with immunity.  

That said, there is ONE change from the past few seasons here, and it’s one I’m a fan of.  You see, this challenge is no longer “Winner take all”.  Yes, the first tribe done still wins their supplies, but there’s a benefit to coming in second.  You do that, you get the same choice in the other seasons, “Savvy of Sweat”.  The third tribe, however?  Has to do what the other tribe chose not to do.  Genuinely, this is a good change I hope sticks around.  Apart from making the challenge a bit more tense, since second place now matters, this also adds a new dynamic in choosing which task to do to earn your pot and flint.  Do you pick what you think you’re best at, or do you pick the one that you DON’T want the other tribe doing?  It’s a valid strategic dilemma, and one that I hope comes back.  

Right from the first leg, the gratuitous slow-mo is broken out.  I’m prepared to rail against its overuse as always, but no, this one actually has a purpose.  You see Bruce, the oldest person on the cast, and thus naturally the oldest on the Tika tribe, has a little bit of red coming out of his head.  Then some more.  Then a lot more.  Until finally, Probst has to stop the challenge to call medical.  Up until that point, I’ll admit, I thought the show was milking a minor injury for shock value.  Yes, that’s a lot of blood near the head, but even minor head wounds bleed profusely.  Yeah, there’s concern since he plunged in the mud right afterward, which I’d say would lead to a big infection risk, but that’s not something immediate.  

But no, I’m wrong here.  Bruce is feeling lightheaded, and thus we get medical.  He is thankfully all right, and so happy is this group of players that not one of them even gives a pat “I was kind of hoping he’d leave to make it farther for me.”, and all simply applaud.  Nice and heartwarming.  

Tika was naturally last back with their pieces following Bruce’s bash, but actually finish their puzzle first, proving how little the physical portion of a challenge actually matters when it comes before a puzzle.  But this one, you see, requires finesse at the end, and Soka is not far behind, wisely copying the completed puzzle on Tika’s side.  Ratu takes a bit longer, despite having TWO puzzles to copy off of.  Boy, this does not bode well for their puzzle skills.  Lucky for them, someone decided Carolyn should be the first ring-tosser for Tika, and either they weren’t allowed to switch out, or Carolyn just chose not to.  Either way, she’s bad at it.  Give her credit, though: She remains positive throughout.  

Soka understandably wins outright, and thanks to Carolyn’s performance, Ratu comes in second.  We head off to our beaches, with Soka and its jovial attitude coming first.  Everyone does the usual go around, introduce themselves thing, but no one really wants to go off on their own, and everyone just seems copacetic.  Danny in particular notes that he was expecting at least one obvious person who didn’t fit in, one obvious first boot, and is somewhat surprised there’s no one like that.  

Hope you enjoyed that Danny content, because it’s literally all you get this episode, aside from one mention where he isn’t even on-screen.  

In order to insert some drama into this happy tribe, Matt, Claire, and Frannie happen upon a birdcage.  A locked birdcage, but with a bag containing their tribe emblem on it.  The three contemplate trying to keep it to themselves before realizing “Oh wait, this thing’s out in the open, anyone can stumble across it!”  They thus wisely inform the rest of the tribe.  It’s left there for now, but the mystery of what this thing is and how it works is truly effective!  I sure hope that we don’t learn the results in the same episode, or if we do, those results aren’t thoroughly disappointing!

Ratu, meanwhile, is in the process of making their decision.  The “Sweat” option involves two people hauling a bag back and forth between two piles of coconuts, picking up one coconut at a time and putting it in a bag, naturally getting heavier the longer the task goes.  The “Savvy” option meanwhile remains a mystery as to the specifics, though we know that only two can work on it, and only get one guess.  Already, the dilemma of which to choose pays off.  Ratu did fine on the physical portion of the challenge, but not so good on the puzzle, whereas Tiva was the opposite.  Thus, if Ratu picks what follows their strength, they also give Tiva their stronger option.  On the other hand, if they pick the option Tiva would be best at, they put themselves at risk of not getting anything either  In the end, Ratu decides to level the playing field, and let both themselves and Tiva play to their strengths, which I overall can’t fault them for, despite how Tiva will mock them.  Counter-picking against Tiva would, in the long run, only serve to strengthen Soka.  

Tiva thereby gets the honor of showing us what our “Savvy” challenge is.  Basically, two wire spheres, one nested in the other, hang around, and the two must correctly calculate how many wires there are.  Given that Carson and Helen, our two puzzle-solvers this time around don’t just go up and physically count them, or at least hold them still to stop the spinning, I’m assuming there was a rule about “No touching the puzzle after it’s revealed.”  Carson notably did NOT want to do this, not wanting to come off as too smart too early, but wisely does not protest too much, lest he rock the boat.  Luckily, the pair get it easily, as Helen quickly hits upon the correct way to figure this out; observing the hubs of wires and counting from there.  Tiva also finds their birdcage here, but again, nothing really comes of it.  More of note is Yam Yam starting the fire for the tribe after Carson gives it a go and fails.  Carson had practiced at home, but Yam Yam has more experience on the beach, and we get some flashbacks to his life in Puerto Rico.  You see, show?  When the flashbacks are NATURAL, they work much better!

Having less success is Ratu, where Matthew and Brandon, as the two physically strongest guys out there, are having a harder time with the challenge.  They do eventually win, but it’s near sunset and the hourglass has visibly almost run out when they do, so this is probably the closest anyone’s ever come to failing this task.  If nothing else, it does bond the pair, and we get the first inkling of what could be called an “alliance” this season.  Ratu also comes across their birdcage here, but yet again, nothing on it.  At least for now.  

We’re not done with the first night, however!  You see, for all that Bruce was cleared to continue in the game, he still needed monitoring.  He unfortunately starts fading fast that night, and medical comes back.  They don’t like what they see, and it quickly becomes clear that Bruce will need to be pulled from the game.  Saddening.  There’s no other way to describe it.  It’s not as bad as if he’d had to be pulled before even the first challenge was finished, but still, not even 24 hours.  That’s barely anything off the “Survivor” bucket list.  Hell, even Jonathan and Wanda on “Survivor Palau” got a full day and a “vote” of some sort.  I do hope that Bruce gets another chance in some form, because he seemed like a nice guy, and deserves to at least get more “Survivor” milestones than “One Challenge”.  

Also, note to the show for the future: THIS is how you use Probst during a medical situation.  Let medical come in, do their job.  Let THEIR words and actions be the one to help us understand the situation, and the gravitas therein.  Only when someone needs to be pulled, right at the end, do you bring in Probst, for a quick summation and a dignified sendoff.  A little bit to show respect, but not so much that he dominates.  That’s all I ask.  

Unaware of the overnight tragedy at Tiva, Soka begins the next morning on a quest to make fire.  Initially the tribe wants to wait for Danny, whom, as a fireman, they believe will be best at starting a fire.  Tom Westman (“Survivor Palau”) suddenly breaks out in a sweat, fearing he will be called in for the “Losah Job” again.  Thankfully for both Tom and Danny, Heidi is not one to just sit there and let someone else do the job.  She takes it upon herself to do, and does nit well, starting fire for the tribe.  Good for her.  

Matt and Frannie, meanwhile, have taken up the job of weaving palm fronds.  Matt jokes about how bad he is at it, noting that the holes are big enough for rain to get through, which fortunately Frannie finds funny.  Very funny, in fact.  The pair quickly bond, and agree to stick together.  An alliance, yes, but also with a lot of flirtatious overtones that it’s plain to see will bud into a showmance.  Has it been long enough that people have forgotten how dangerous these types of bonds can be, or will they still be nipped as soon as their found out?  Remains to be seen, but my money’s on the latter.  

Over at Ratu, Matthew is taking charge.  He’s the one directing things around the camp, and everyone knows it.  Strangely, this does not seem to make him a target that we see, and everyone seems to like him.  Perhaps this is because Matthew is just so vivacious, so full of energy.  He describes this as his “Mid-Life Challenge”, noting that he left his husband and four year old son to play the game, and wants to make the most out of every moment.  Admittedly tying this into his mom working at the YMCA is a bit forced, but hey, still more natural than most of the flashbacks last season, and it speaks well for Matthew that something that would normally paint a huge target on someone’s back doesn’t seem to hurt his game too much.  

No, the thing most hurting Matthew’s game, is, well, Matthew himself.  You see, so enthused is he that he climbs that rock we saw him climbing in that preview.  Why?  No idea!  We saw him talking about hunting for crabs, but somehow I don’t see crabs enjoying the top of the rock so much.  

Sure enough, Matthew falls, and from there it’s a roller-coaster.  First Matthew calls that he needs medical for his arm.  Then his arm pops back in, having merely been dislocated, and he says he’s fine.  But then there’s blood gushing from his foot, and one of his toes looks bent.  Basically, Matthew is just all the injuries from the opening challenge of “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” in one guy.  Medical does need to come out, and he’s clear to stay, but no heavy lifting from him.  Kent, our resident Canadian for the season, notes this is an issue, both because it doesn’t speak well of Matthew’s decision-making skills, and that they’re now down a strong tribe member for challenges, at least in the short-term.  

Back on Tiva, and oh hey, alliance talk?  Glad to get more than just pairings HALFWAY THROUGH THE EPISODE!  With Bruce gone, Carson and Helen build on their teamwork from earlier, roping in Sarah since she seems the most level-headed.  Most people look level-headed next to Carolyn, admittedly.  Speaking of Carolyn, while she may be a bit loud, and sometimes erratic, she is not a moron.  She realizes that three people talking on their own, especially when she had been closest with Bruce prior to his evacuation, means she’s probably on the outs.  That said, she notes that she can’t pull an Abi-Maria (“Survivor Philippines”, though admittedly the particular incident I’m thinking of is from “Survivor Cambodia”) and just bluntly go over and interrupt their conversation.  A truly tricky situation.  You don’t want conversations without you, but you don’t want to come in like the proverbial wrecking ball, either.  How will Carolyn handle this tense situation…

Oh look, there’s the boat to take someone on a journey!  Gee, sure glad that DIDN’T interrupt the first truly interesting strategy we’ve had in a while, and a good old-fashioned social dilemma!  SO GLAD this is the direction the show’s going in.  

Carolyn does try and parlay her way onto the boat, but unfortunately for her Yam Yam, the one person who might be willing to back her up, also wants to go, and so they resort to drawing sticks.  This leads to Sarah going, after we see Yam Yam do his best “The Price is Right” impression with his “Come on Down”.  By sheer coincidence, Soka also uses this exact same method, leading to a reluctant Matt going.  Ratu is the one that breaks the pattern, though still randomized.  They draw rocks instead of sticks.  Unfortunately they didn’t think to watch the watchmen.  Lauren was the one who organized the rocks, and rigged it so she would get to go.  Would have been nice to have a better explanation of HOW she rigged it, but good forward thinking regardless.  Can’t argue with the results, kudos to her.  

Ratu will not waste time while she’s gone, though, and decides to have a group hunt for the key to the birdcage, speculating that it might be a challenge advantage for the tribe.  After the usual confessionals about how hard it is to find, Brandon comes across the key in a log.  Maddy is nearby, so Brandon, not trusting her, tries to play it off like he found nothing.  Unfortunately for him, two things are true: Maddy is EXTREMELY close by, and Brandon is not a good actor.  Maddy makes it clear in confessional that she knew Brandon had found something in the moment.  Thus, Brandon’s decision to come clean, while belated, makes sense.  Maddy suggests keeping it to themselves, but Brandon, spooked, comes clean to everyone anyway.  Which makes sense, if he thinks it’s some advantage for the tribe.  

It is not.  It’s an idol and a fake idol, both of which Brandon now possesses.  

And thus, now we talk about the Birdcage twist, and how ultimately disappointed I was.  Something this powerful being out in the open, along with the lack of instructions, was a great setup!  A mystery for both contestants and audience, keeping everyone engaged!  When all is said and done, though, it’s just another idol.  Adding in a fake idol as a bonus doesn’t really seem like much.  On top of that, what happened to “You have to earn everything in the new era”?  True, you had to hunt for the key, and I suppose if you’re not Brandon try and secret it away publicly, but there’s no potential consequence for grabbing that idol like there has been.  You know, one of the GOOD things about the past few seasons?  This is little different then a regular idol hunt, and easier than some.  Want to talk to the cast of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, who had to find a special tool to attach to a stick to release a key to unlock a box with an idol?  I think not.  Now, some of this was just outside the show’s control.  While the reveal would always be underwhelming, it’s not on the show that someone figured it out so quickly.  But some sort of consequence beyond the public location would be nice.  

Now, the way for Brandon to play this off is to talk about using it for the tribe.  As we’ll see, however, Brandon is using it for Brandon.  

Ok, maybe we’ll get some better stuff on our journey.  We’ll hold off on the gimmick for the season, as it’s so often the bonds made and how those impact individual decisions that matter more in the long-run…

Oh, they’re already going their separate ways to make a “decision”, without us hearing a word between them beyond introductions.  Again, show, thanks SO much for shoving aside interpersonal interaction in favor of more twists and advantages!

Even the “decision” at the end of the journey is a bit of a letdown.  I use quotation marks here because everyone is FORCED into a certain action as their first one.  Each individual has picked a path, with no further information known, and comes across a bag.  Rather than being able to choose to walk away, they MUST pick at least one shell out of the bag.  One contains an advantage, the other two are a lost vote.  Then, admittedly, each individual does make a decision.  They may either reach into the bag again, giving them better odds of getting something out of the journey, but also potentially losing votes at their next two Tribal Councils.  Now, I see what they’re going for here.  “Sunk Cost Fallacy” (i.e. believing that since you’ve already lost your vote anyway, you might as well try and get something out of it, even though your odds are still a coin flip) and all that.  But the thing that made the journey work on the other seasons was the interactivity.  Not just the talking on the way up, I mean, but how the other player’s choices impacted you.  You had to go based on what you thought other people might do.  Here?  You’re forced to a choice, no other interaction required.  The only “choice” that involved the other people was picking which path to go down, and with no information about what is down a given path, that’s just random chance, no strategy at all.  

Speaking of random chance, we get all three possible scenarios for a bag draw in one episode.  See, show, it’s things like this that make people think you’re rigged.  

We also learn here that not all paths are created equal.  The two people (Sarah and Lauren) who do get advantages get ones of very different power level.  Now, I know I said I DIDN’T want things to be the same for everyone in my very last blog, and I stand by that, but the balancing could be done better than this!  While Matt gets nothing, Sarah, after losing her vote, gets the “Inheritance Advantage”.  Now, the rules went by kind of quickly here, so forgive me if I’m wrong on this, but by my reckoning, here’s how it works: Sarah declares that she’s playing it publicly at Tribal Council, before anyone plays any idols or advantages.  Then, any idols or advantages that DO get used go straight to her.  SECRETLY.  Forgive me, but this seems slightly overpowered.  Now, it could be worse.  Having to play it publicly and before anything else gets played are both correct calls.  Expiring at the final 7 is also probably necessary.  But getting EVERYTHING?  When you can have 3 or 4 advantages played at one Tribal Council?  That seems a bit much.  And bear in mind, it’s not like people will KNOW this is what it does.  This is the first we’ve ever seen this advantage; Sarah can make up whatever lie she wants to about it.  Granted, this will make it somewhat underpowered in subsequent season, since everyone WILL know what it does, but at least then it will still work as an advantage-deterrent.  As such, I think I feel about this they way some others feel about Knowledge is Power: Too much for one person to have.  

Contrast with Lauren, who gets one of the best new advantages I’d say this show has had in a long time: Bank a Vote.  At one Tribal Council, of her choosing, Lauren may choose not to cast a vote, but instead take a parchment back with her.  Then, at any subsequent Tribal Council, she may use it as an extra vote.  Great advantage!  Valuable, but requires some risk to use.  Powerful, but not game-breaking.  And she didn’t even lose a vote in getting it!  

Great stuff, but you see why there’s a power disparity between what the two ladies got.  How would I resolve this?  Well, assuming we’re not going to just come up with a more equivalent advantage to the Bank a Vote, I say make the choice of path an informed choice.  Have the sign say something like “You will each have to draw a shell from a bag at the end of whatever path you choose.  One shell will have an advantage, the rest will lose you a vote.  The first path has three shells in total, the second four, and the third five.  However, the more shells a path has, the more powerful the advantage.”  Then, people make an informed choice about how much they want to risk.  Plus, you can then either have people be able to go down the same path, and thus open more collaboration opportunities to increase odds for themselves, or force them down separate paths, leading to negotiating about who gets what path.  Either way it’s interesting, leads to a more informed choice, and gives players a bit more agency than they currently have.  

Naturally, after writing a blog about how the journey system in the new era makes lying about your trip all but impossible, naturally all three of our players lie.  Matt and Sarah tell half-truths, admitting they lost their vote, but not admitting to the results of their second draw, while Lauren just outright lies and says she lost her vote.  Admittedly, this is a lie she could possibly get away with, since banking her vote means one less vote at Tribal Council.  Yet another reason to like this advantage.  

Off to our challenge, and it’s sadly in the category of “tough but generic”.  Our tribes race out in boats around a buoy, haul a crate onto the shore up to a ramp a la “Survivor Samoa”.  They then pull that crate over a ramp with lots of peaks and valleys, only to find a key to unlock a giant slide puzzle, with the first two tribes winning immunity and keeping their flint.  The sheer scale and physicality, seen much more rarely these days, keeps me from hating this challenge outright, but MAN do I long for original challenges.  I’ll be touching on this more later on, but this season has a really strong medieval theme, and I kind of love it.  If ONLY the challenges could be original ones to match that theme.  

Probst also takes the time to let us know that Bruce is ok, which is nice.  Everyone claps.  Say what you will about this season, but the cast is very NICE, which particularly after some of the bitterness at the end of last season is refreshing.  This is also where we get the reveal of the immunity idol for the season.  I would talk about it, but I need a quick bathroom break, so please sit through this commercial while I do so.  Won’t take long.  

WHO’S THAT IMMUNITY IDOL?

*commercial plays*

IT’S AEGISLASH!  

Aegislash!

It’s times like these where I really wish I had the skills to do these as video, rather than as written blogs.  That joke would have worked so much better visually.  

For the non-Pokemon initiated, our Immunity Idol this season is a sword stabbed through a shield, separating to become two separate idols as needed.  Frankly, this idol is nothing short of BADASS!  One of the best I’ve seen in a long time, and certainly helps this season stand out from the others aesthetically.  Again, if only the challenges themselves could keep up that aesthetic.  

While we can be fairly certain, given the relative lack of strategizing from them, that Soka will not be going, it’s a toss up as to who loses between Tika and Ratu.  Fittingly, they keep it back and forth, but things don’t look good for Ratu when Tika gets to the puzzle first.  Again, they seem to be the puzzle tribe.  Making matters worse is that Brandon, their physical anchor with Matthew injured, goes too hard in the challenge, and medical is called in.  He’s ok, but has to sit out the rest of challenge.  Not that I think Ratu was winning with their puzzle skills, but it certainly didn’t help matters.  Tika gets second, and Ratu loses their flint.  Scared as I am for Matthew, probably the most interesting in terms of tribe dynamics so far.  

More interesting than the challenge, however, are our sit-outs.  Oh, not who they are.  Matthew sits out for Ratu, given his injury obviously, and Claire, who appears to be the least physical of Soka.  No, what’s interesting is that Matthew’s charm seems to extend even to people outside his own tribe.  Claire says she likes him, and so gives him information, conferring with him about the results of the journey.  Matthew notes the lost vote Lauren said she had, but Claire notes that Matt on her tribe SHOWED the paper.  Given that Lauren did not, this makes Matthew suspicious.  

This suspicious quickly turns to targeting.  Matthew throws Lauren’s name out to basically everyone but her, though particularly Brandon and Kane, which they readily agree to.  Matthew’s logic makes sense, and while it was by no means the thing that cost them the challenge, Lauren did visibly struggle in the water.  Understandable for a Texas native, but still, not good when swimming challenges have a strong possibility of coming up.  

Maddy, however, has not forgotten Brandon’s mistrust of her.  Mistrust begets mistrust, and so Maddy goes to Lauren about voting out Brandon, getting Kane and Jaime on board to make a majority.  Lauren readily agrees since, you know, the alternative is her getting voted out.  They then go to Jaime, who evidently finds the pressure of being the swing vote too much, and says she’s going to use her shot in the dark.  Excuse me, WHAT?  Jaime, you are in arguably the BEST position on this tribe!  Everyone is coming to you with plans, no one is targeting you.  Why not vote?  Because you don’t want to make a decision?  THAT doesn’t bode well for your game.  

Kane not being super on-board with the Brandon plan seems to put the kibosh on it, but thankfully for misdirection, Brandon has not forgotten his and Maddy’s feud either.  He feels Maddy is more of a strategic threat than Lauren, and thus wants her out first.  Maddy, meanwhile, still tries to resuscitate the Brandon boot, going to Matthew to try and get a solid 4th.  Matthew protests strength, but she argues that he, her, and Kane will be enough.  Not sure why anyone would buy that, since Matthew’s arm is still in a sling and Kane does not seem particularly strong, but hey, you say what you have to.  Matthew notes that he’s closest to Brandon, but if the majority is going that way, will not want to rock to boat.  

As we head off to Tribal Council, can I just say how AMAZING it is that Matthew’s name is not even BROUGHT UP to boot this episode?  Not that I wanted it brought up of course.  After all, I like the dude a lot (pointless rock climb notwithstanding), and am rooting for him.  But with his arm in a sling, you’d think someone would at least MENTION it!  Chalk it up to his social game, I guess.  

Like our immunity idol, our Tribal Council set is nothing short of EPIC!  In keeping with the medieval theme, it’s a ruined castle, and they go all-out!  The desk with the parchment is a chessboard.  A gargoyle looms over the “Walk of Shame”.  THERE’S A FREAKING CATAPULT AT THE ENTRANCE!  Yes, it absolutely does not fit with Fiji, but if we’re stuck there anyway, I’ll take whatever unique designs I can get.  

Sadly the content of our Tribal Council does not match the aesthetic.  Gone are the days of hard-hitting questions.  Instead, Probst asks about how good everyone feels, and we get more metaphors that have honestly slipped through my head leaving zero impact.  Very ho-hum overall.  

Oh, wait, Probst did actually deign to give at least ONE hard-hitting moment.  The subject of the birdcage is brought up, and Brandon makes it clear that, in his words “The idol is for Brandon”.  Brandon, buddy, no.  This is not how you want to play it.  When you’ve got so public an idol, you need to sell it as being a group thing, not a “yourself” thing.  This is REALLY not the path to go down.  

Tribal Council discussion may be humdrum, but our voting is anything but.  Jaime announces her Shot in the Dark plan, and follows through.  So, we find out, did Matthew.  Now, in his case I’d say it’s a LITTLE more justified.  After all, while WE know he wasn’t at risk, he didn’t, and logically might believe he could receive votes.  That said, given his conflict over what to do with Brandon, it comes across to me more like he didn’t want to offend one side or the other.  Fair enough, but it still makes you look wishy-washy.  Jaime as well, though at least she is “Safe” out of the bargain, the first person to do so via Shot in the Dark.  She had literally NO votes against her anyway, but technically still the first.  

Adding onto this chaos is Lauren choosing to bank her vote.  Props to her, I would not have had the guts, knowing my name had been brought up.  Honestly, the most sensible move out of all of these is Brandon who, after seeing all this go down, plays his idol.  Understandable, both as he knows his close ally didn’t vote, and as the idol is a stigma he needs to get rid of.  Sure enough, Kane and Maddy both went for Brandon.  Brandon, left to his own devices, went for Maddy, who gets sent home with but a single vote.  I do feel for her, going down without a majority against her, but I’m not too sorry to lose her.  She wasn’t a bad character, and a decent strategist, but overall just kind of generic and I kept forgetting who she was in crowd shots.  Not a great character lost, is what I’m saying.  

Much like the strategy of Ratu, this episode is an enigma.  I love it, but for very different reasons than usual.  The strategy was messy at best overall, and once again, we lost time on more interesting interpersonal dynamics in favor of gimmicks.  But the episode was so different, so entertaining compared to a lot of recent episodes, that I still love it.  Partly it’s the aesthetic of the season helping it stand out, but it’s also how we’re not seeing ideal strategy.  Granted, I’d like at least Matthew to play a little better, but he’s hardly the worst of the bunch, and it does lead to insane situations you don’t see as often.  Ultimately, though, I think it’s the positive cast that really puts this episode over the top.  Their charm, their sheer joy at being there, is infectious, and just makes the episode fun to watch.  Hopefully they can keep it up!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  amil

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Cast Assessment

Dear readers, I would like to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  That said, I cannot do so in this case, due to the fact that the world is ending.  

Yes, hell hath frozen over, pigs are flying, the whole works.  We have hit the apocalypse, my friends.  How do I know this?  We had a cast release on a Tuesday.  You know, the day “Survivor” does not air on.  We have broken one of the immutable laws of the universe.  Matter can neither be created nor destroyed.  Force equals mass times acceleration.  “Survivor” casts drop on the same day of the week that episodes premier on.  And since I haven’t heard about the show switching to “Tuesdays”, this can only mean the world is coming to an end.  

Still, I suppose we might as well enjoy ourselves while we await our inevitable demise.  Let’s take a look at my thoughts on this new cast, starting with…

Claire Rafson (25, Tech Investor, Brooklyn, NY, Soka Tribe): Starting strong out of the gate, Claire is one of my two picks to win the whole thing.  Yes, seriously.  The woman is just too solid a competitor.  She compares herself to two solid winners in Michele Fitzgerald and Natalie Anderson (“Survivor Kaoh Rong” and “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, respectively), and makes a good note of what qualities she needs to utilize from both.  Specifically Michele’s social game and Natalie’s willingness to cut ties when necessary.  A blend a likability and cutthroatness can be lethal, game-wise, and all in a very unassuming package.  Admittedly Claire doesn’t seem like she’ll be the BEST in the outdoors or in challenges, but she doesn’t seem like she’ll be a sink in either area either, and given that her tribe seems like it’s the most well-rounded in challenges overall, I suspect she’s in it for the long haul.  If you REALLY want me to find weaknesses in her game, I would probably say her age and her pet peeves.  Claire is on the younger side for a winner, but as Maryanne taught us in “Survivor 42”, it’s by no means a deal-breaker, and I think this self-described “queer black Jewish woman” has those skills, helped by the fact that she’s clearly a longtime fan (something that, as I’ll discuss later, does not seem to be as universal amongst this cast as it has been in recent seasons).  Slightly more concerning is her pet peeve, which is people who are not self-aware, something that can describe many a previous contestant, and will doubtless apply to some this season.  Given her savvy, plus her tribe’s possible lack of early votes, I think Claire can ride this out for the long haul, and emerge as our eventually winner.  I know, I usually pick two winners, and still intend to do so this season.  But put a gun to my head, and force me to pick just one, I’m going with Claire.  Plus, the woman listens to young-adult novels on tape to go to sleep (specifically “The Hunger Games” in her case), and can I just say, I feel seen?

Matt Blankinship (27, Software Engineer, San Francisco, CA, Soka Tribe): This guy stole my first name, he stole my hairdo.  Man’s just a thief overall!  I kid, I kid.  Either way, though, I suspect this guy will be rewarded like a thief, and receive a harsh sentence.  That sentence, in this case, being an early exit.  Matt had better hope that his tribe truly IS the dominant one of the season, because I see him going at their first Tribal Council.  Given the makeup of the tribes, I doubt he’s the overall first boot, but when the opportunity arises, he’s toast.  There’s several of the “nerd” archetype this season, and while not the most egregious example of this, Matt is the most clearly visible.  Everyone nowadays knows this archetype is a threat, and coupled with a usual lack of skills in non-puzzle-based challenges (which, admittedly, are becoming as rare as hen’s teeth these days), they are an easy early target.  It takes a great deal of skill to overcome this obstacle, and while Matt is far from the worst person I’ve ever seen in terms of game sense, he’s no genius in that territory either.  The thing that clinches Matt’s poor chances for me is him talking about his failures in life.  It is refreshing to someone so open about their past mistakes, admittedly.  He chickened out for applying for the show the first time.  He failed to get a job.  He failed college.  It’s good, uplifting stuff that he kept on fighting in spite of this, but does not bode well for a winning game.  Matt is a pre-merge boot, but hey, maybe he can learn from this failure, and find success on a returnee season?  Stranger things have happened.  

Carolyn Wiger (35, Drug Counselor, Hugo, MN, Tika Tribe): Remember how I said people in psychology and psychology-related fields, unless they are Denise Stapely of “Survivor Philippines”, don’t do well on the show?  Yeah, don’t be looking for Carolyn to buck that trend.  Seems we’re getting all my extreme takes out of the way early, since Carolyn is my pick for first boot of the season.  While by no means “old”, she definitely fits the mold the show has for an “older woman”, one of the more vulnerable archetypes to be perceived as at the beginning of the season.  Carolyn also lists a lot of worldly things that she likes, makeup and potato chips and whatnot, that make me question how well she will do in the outdoors, only making her more vulnerable.  On top of that, when asked to compare herself to a previous player, Carolyn says she’s most like Noura of “Survivor Island of the Idols”.  About the best thing that this comparison says about Carolyn is that she has good self-knowledge.  Yeah, Noura ain’t exactly the comparison you want to make if you’re looking for success in this game.  Yes, Noura made it deep, but that was in part due to a large win streak from her tribe, giving other people time to rub the tribe the wrong way.  While I maintain that there will be no “disaster tribe” for this season, if there IS one on some off-chance, it will likely be Tika, putting Carolyn in an early vulnerable spot.  IF she somehow makes the merge, expect her to go deep as a goat, but unfortunately for her, I expect her to have a very short shelf-life this season.  Good on her for doing the real-life work she does, though.  Very necessary, but very difficult.  

Yamil “Yam Yam” Arocho (36, Salon Owner, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tika Tribe): One of two contestants currently living in a US territory at the time of casting this season, Yam Yam bookends the unintended theme this blog of “Get the extreme takes out early”.  Yes, Yam Yam is my second winner pick for this season.  You may remember Yam Yam from the preview we got at the end of “Survivor 43”.  He was the guy excited to poop in the ocean.  This may have you thinking “Well, the guy will be a fun character for sure, but winner equity?  Not seeing it.”  But as Maryanne proved on “Survivor 42”, being a good character and being a good strategist are not necessarily mutually exclusive.  In fact, Yam Yam’s personality could work to his advantage, as his strategizing won’t make him as visible a threat, thanks to his “wacky” exterior.  The man has admitted to surviving 90 days without electricity following a hurricane, so I’m going to say he’s got survival bona fides.  Yes, his challenge prowess might not be the best, but unless his tribe goes the route of Vesi last season, and cuts off their worst at challenges when they just can’t take it any more, Yam Yam is here for the long haul.  People will want to keep him around for his humor, and I’m confident he could use his charm to his advantage.  Man compares himself to Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”) for a reason, and he’s the only person I’ve yet seen to have NO pet peeves listed in his bio whatsoever (though that could just be a quirk of “Entertainment Weekly”, where I usually go to read them).  Honestly, the only concern I have with Yam Yam is that he DOES remind me so much of Maryanne.  She may have proved big characters can still be good at strategy, but her doing so means people will be on the watch for such a game.  Given that “Survivor 42” was the last season this cast saw, it will be VERY fresh in their minds, and that could put Yam Yam in trouble.  Otherwise, expect him to be around in the end.  Besides, he’s endorsed by Sandra Diaz-Twine (“Survivor Pearl Islands”), and who am I to disagree with The Queen?

Lauren Harpe (31, Elementary School Teacher, Mont Belvieu, TX, Ratu Tribe): After several novella’s worth of character bits to talk about, we finally have someone who we can go over without some big rant involved.  Lauren should do fairly well in this game, but aside from her hair, which is awesome, I don’t expect her to make any big waves in this game.  I think she should have some good skills interpersonally.  After all, managing a bunch of elementary school kids is one of the undersold toughest jobs in this day and age.  And mad respect to her for raising kids as a single mom, another undersold tough job.  Her pet peeve is a bit concerning, in people who don’t own up to their mistakes, but I’ve seen people with way worse peeves do well, so I won’t hold that much against her.  I don’t see Lauren being the major mover and shaker in an alliance, but she seems skilled enough to work her way into the core of a major alliance, and probably hang on until the early-to-mid merge or so, where she’ll be taken out as a safe boot.  Possibly she’s even one of the “split tribal” boots at the final 10, assuming they bring that back again.  Not knocking my socks off, but a solid player I predict will do decently well.  

Danny Massa (32, NYC Firefighter, Bronx, NY, Soka Tribe): While perhaps not quite to the same degree, Danny is very much the Jonathan Young (“Survivor 42”) of this cast.  Not so much in the sense that he will win challenges single-handedly, but in the sense that physically, he’s head and shoulders above the rest of the cast.  That said, I don’t see much strategic chops from him beyond surface-level stuff, and his pet peeves are the most concerning so far.  Bullies and whining are both decently common on this show, and I could see them getting under Danny’s skin.  On the flip side, however, this makes Danny a very good alliance member.  Skilled in team challenges, loyal, but not bright enough to strategize against you in any threatening way.  As with most challenge beasts, Danny will be a target as soon as the merge hits, and unless he gets an alliance as tight as Jonathan’s, will probably be out in the early-to-mid merge area.  

Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt (43, Engineering Manager, Pittsburgh, PA, Soka Tribe): For her own sake, Heidi had better hope her tribe IS a major force in the challenges, because if things shake out relatively even in terms of who goes to Tribal Council, she is an easy early target.  I love her enthusiasm, and we stan a board-game lover on this blog, but the fact simply is that Heidi is the oldest person on her tribe, and that person is almost always vulnerable early on.  Add onto that someone who self-describes as “loud”, a personality trait that gets very irritating very quickly when you can’t get away from it, and an enthusiasm for the game that, while admirable, frequently leads to playing too hard, too fast, and you’ve got yourself a recipe for a pre-merge boot.  Her pet peeve, “rude people”, doesn’t help matters any further.  Again, unless her tribe just completely bodies the immunity challenges, I don’t see Heidi having much of a shot moving forward.  About the only other thing worth mentioning is that she is one of a few people this season to mention Angelina Keeley (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) in their “who are you most like?” question, something that doesn’t really impact my thoughts on how they’ll do, but DOES point to an interesting trend that I’ll discuss more when we come to the final thoughts on the cast/season preview overall.  

Carson Garrett (20, NASA Engineering Student, Atlanta, GA, Tika Tribe): It’s revenge of the nerds!  Carson is the second (of three) overt “nerd” archetypes this season, and like with Matt before him, I think it helps spell his doom.  Man’s certainly got the studying down, though.  3-D printing puzzles to practice them beforehand.  Studying up on the statistics of the game.  Correctly identifying himself with Christian Hubicki (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  The man is doing his best to set himself up for success, and I do like the guy.  Man loves board games in general, and Settlers of Catan in particular.  Can’t fault him for that.  But the man has too many little things working against him.  I mentioned the “nerd” archetype being a threat, but the fact is that he’s just too young for me to consider him doing well.  I know I said Maryanne proved that age is less of a factor than we might have previously thought, but there is a limit to how low one can go, and I’m just not sure this guy has enough life experience to connect with people, and consequently do well in this game.  Finally, there’s his tribe.  I doubt Carson will be the FIRST target from his tribe, he needs to not go to Tribal Council too-often pre-merge, yet finds himself on probably the worst tribe for challenges.  Rough luck, my dude.  Another pre-merge boot in my opinion.  As an aside, the man DOES have probably the longest list of pet peeves, but most of them, apart from mosquitoes, are things he’s unlikely to encounter on the island, though I suppose production could put him on a tribe with negative vibes/moon-landing-deniers just to mess with him.  

Maddy Pomilla (28, Charity Projects Manager, Brooklyn, NY, Ratu Tribe): Not content to have Elie Scott (“Survivor 43”) on just once, production let her change her name, occupation, and location, then brought her back immediately.  Apart from physical resemblance, Maddy and Elie exude the same energy.  Decently game-savvy, but still overestimating themselves, and energetic to the point of annoyance.  Maddy will be a strategist, but an overly-visible one, and therefore an easy target.  Given the large merge sizes of recent seasons, expect Maddy to be our merge boot, or perhaps our “Mergeatory” boot, if that’s really what we’re calling it now.  Too visible not to take out at an opportunity when an easy consensus boot is needed.  She will burn brightly, but burn (relatively) fast.  

Bruce Perreault (46, Insurance Agent, Warwick, RI, Tika Tribe): Our oldest contestant (though admittedly only by a few years) on this season, I would not blame you for not expecting Bruce to be that old at first glance.  True, the man does not look like a spring chicken, but you could easily shave 10 years off his age, and I’d believe it.  This implies he’s relatively fit, ergo not a challenge sink, ergo less likely to be targeted for that reason.  That said, there ARE reasons to be concerned about his game, at least in my opinion.  While the man is in insurance, thereby effectively a salesman and presumably social, the man gives the shortest answers by far in his bio.  A welcome break in reading, to be sure, but does not imply, to me at least, good sociability.  Think of him like Rocksroy (“Survivor 42”): Not unlikeable, but very set in his ways and not going to sugarcoat stuff.  He’s one of two players who very much give off “dad vibes” this season.  Useful on a tribe that’s likely to be fairly chaotic early, but could also isolate him.  I think Bruce needs to hope for a very even split of Tribal Council attendance in the pre-merge, since there are people I’ve discussed on his tribe who would likely be targets before him.  If they ARE closer to the disaster tribe, his perceived lack of sociability will likely catch up to him, and Bruce will be out likely in the pre-merge, though probably the late pre-merge, if I had to guess.  

Sarah Wade (27, Management Consultant, Chicago, IL, Tika Tribe): If someone can ride out the chaos that is this tribe, my money’s on Sarah.  Apart from her career implying she knows how to handle disparate personalities, the woman is a long-time fan, and so knows the game quite well, while appearing unassuming, another deadly combination in this game.  Not enough stands out about her for me to really go so far as to say she’ll win, but she was definitely one I considered for the title, and will probably make it far regardless.  Mid-to-late merge I’d say.  Her pet peeves are relatively unassuming (loud chewing, rule followers, close minded/inflexible people), though she could run into some in the game, another slight mark against her.  Also, she references multiple times how the passing of a close friend inspires her in life.  A tragedy for her, and my heart goes out to her for her loss, but expect her to be the one we get MULTIPLE flashbacks to.  No way the show isn’t milking that for all it’s worth.  

Matthew Grinstead-Mayle (43, Barbershop Owner, Columbus, OH, Ratu Tribe):  Hoo boy.  Let’s tally the list, shall we?  This guy shares my first name.  He lives in the same metropolitan area as me.  We bear some superficial similarities, being large, hirsute, barrel-chested guys with bushy beards.  This guy is my favorite of the season in part because I’m basically OBLIGATED to root for him at this point.  So, do I think he’ll win?  Eh… I think he’ll make the merge, at least.  The dude gives off SERIOUS dad vibes, even more so than Bruce whom we just discussed.  Not a bad thing, but it makes me question how good he’ll be at the game once things really get cutthroat.  On top of that, dude has a LOT of pet peeves.  Admittedly, most of these are food-related, and unlikely to come up, but the two that AREN’T, specifically people who talk in circles and people who dominate the conversation (or presumably both), are something he’ll have to watch out for.  While I appreciate him comparing himself to Elaine Stott (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), an underappreciated player, his further comparisons to Shan Smith (“Survivor 41”) and especially Ben Driebergen (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) are concerning.  Admittedly his take on the former is that she was the social center, but should he bring in her cockiness, he might be in trouble.  As for Ben?  Well, a nice enough guy, but good strategist he ain’t.  I don’t see Matthew going SUPER early, but expect him out no later than the mid-merge, when the game just gets too cutthroat for him to keep up.  Of course, this is assuming he’s not one of the medevacs we saw in the season preview, since it seems like it was likely him falling off the rock in the preview.  He has the closest build, and does have the right buff color, assuming no swap.  Then again, these previews also made us think Tori Meehan was getting an idol on “Survivor 42”, so I’m not going to go so far as to say he IS for certain a medevac.  

Helen Li (29, Product Manager, San Francisco, CA, Tika Tribe): Rounding out this tribe is the OTHER person I have confidence can ride this thing out, regardless of if the tribe ends up being a disaster.  Helen’s another bona fide fan, making good references from recent seasons (comparing herself to Erika Casupanan of “Survivor 41”), all the way back to season 2 with Tina Wesson.  Preparing for the future while learning from the past.  I like this woman.  Her unassuming pet peeves help as well, as a lack of toilet paper and cars on the island mean two out of her three are non-factors.  Disrespectful people might be an issue, and that plus a potential lack of challenge prowess keep Helen from the winner’s spot for me.  Still, all else being equal, she should have the good game sense to weather early storms, and make the mid-to-late merge period.  I’d even have her as a dark horse to win, if it comes to that.  

Josh Wilder (34, Surgical Podiatrist, Atlanta, GA, Soka Tribe): Josh seems nice.  Yeah.  That’s really all that needs to be said.  Dude is decently athletic, seems likable enough.  Should do well.  I don’t think he really has the killer instinct needed to be truly great, but unless he makes some major social gaffe none of us see coming, he should be safe.  No reason to vote him out early, and not enough of a strategic threat to be an immediate target come the merge.  Man is one of the better challenge competitors on paper this season, so expect his threat to rise in the mid-to-late merge, and see him go there.  Be aware, as well, that he’s another contestant who regrettably had tragic medical hardships at a (relatively, in some cases) young age.  Something called “Prune Belly Syndrome” at birth, necessitating a kidney transplant, and stomach cancer at age 25, necessitating the removal (and presumably transplant) of his stomach.  Dude’s been through a lot, and expect to hear it in multiple flashbacks.  In truth, I expect Josh’s biggest risk early game to be the fact that, due to the aforementioned transplants, he’s on immunosuppressants, and so I could see him getting some tropical disease that makes him one of the medevacs of the season, though I would hope that production, if they thought he was at that much greater a risk than others, would not have let him play the season in the first place.  

Jaime Lynn Ruiz (35, Yogi, Mesa, AZ, Ratu Tribe): Jaime wins the award for “Most Unusual Occupation” this season!  Good thing, too, as she’s not winning many other awards.  Similar to Carolyn, whom we discussed earlier, Jamie is not “old” by an objective measure, but fits the “older woman” archetype as far as this show is concerned, and that’s a problem.  She claims to be a day one fan, and perhaps she is, but comparisons only to recent seasons make me question that.  She’s another Angelina stan, and again, we’ll get into the significance of that later on.  She also has a lot of enthusiasm, as evidenced by a large number of all-caps words in her bio.  As a viewer, I appreciate it, but on the island, could be grating.  I will say she avoid any even mildly concerning pet peeves, but she’s likely the worst challenge performer on her tribe, so unless she has above and beyond social skills, I don’t see her lasting very long, unfortunately.  Chalk her up as another pre-merge boot.  

Kane Fritzler (25, Law Student, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, Ratu Tribe): Rounding out our nerd trio is Kane, and he is an exception to my thoughts on these types this season.  That is to say, Kane will be voted out for reasons OTHER than his nerddom.  Don’t misunderstand, Kane has a few read flags.  Likely not the best in non-puzzle challenges.  Describes himself as “loud” which I’ve already expressed as a concern for others.  Admittedly not any concerning pet peeves, but this is little comfort.  No, sadly for Kane, he is doomed before he starts by his nationality.  What’s wrong with being Canadian, you might ask?  Erika and Maryanne, that’s what.  The last two times there has been an opportunity to do so, a Canadian has won this show.  This, in the minds of this case, who JUST saw “Survivor 42” end before coming out, makes Canadians a threat.  Possibly Kane can try and pass himself off as an American, but that’s a big lie to keep up, and if there’s somehow another spelling challenge, he’ll give himself away.  Unfortunately, by virtue of his place of birth, Kane is a goner.  Another pre-merge boot.  And to those who say “So two Canadians won back to back, no big deal!”, I would remind you that it took only ONE successful women’s alliance (after at least three failed attempts at one, if you’re being really picky about what constitutes an “attempt” at a “women’s alliance”) for contestants to have a fear of women’s alliances that arguably persists TO THIS DAY.  I give it at least 3-5 years before the paranoia dies down to the point where a Canadian can win again.  

Frannie Marin (23, Research Coordinator, Cambringe, MA, Soka Tribe): If I were to describe Frannie in one word, it would be “quirky”.  Not too surprising, considering she compares herself to this blog’s beloved Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  She also says that Sophie Clarke (“Survivor South Pacific”) and the Scarlet Witch are her heroes, which we can get behind.  Likability does not always translate into success, though, and these traits that we the audience love could end up being a detriment to Frannie’s game, if they are in excess.  Thankfully, Frannie also seems to be able to tone it down when needed, as evidenced by her not-too-wordy bio.  She’s also another with no listed pet peeves, though again, that could just be a hiccup of how I’m reading these bios.  Couple this with her likely being on the strongest overall tribe for challenges, and I see Frannie making it to the early-to-mid merge.  She’s not subtle enough to win, but should make it decently far, and will certainly be fun along the way.  

Brandon Cottom (30, Security Specialist, Newtown, PA, Ratu Tribe): We end our cast assessment with the most “celebrity” of these contestants.  His occupation may be “Security Specialist”, but Brandon is more well known as a linebacker for the Seattle Seahawks.  Brandon pretty well fits the archetype we’ve come to expect for sports players on “Survivor”.  Decent, if not great, at challenges.  Generally charming, but not as much game sense.  A good team player who likely can’t win, but unless their fame is well-known, should make the mid-merge area or so.  Brandon is pretty bog-standard in this category, so I don’t see that much more needs to be said about him than that.  They wanted another by-the-book sports player on this show, and that’s what they got.  

And thus, we round out the cast assessment, and I am hyped.  While I struggled to find things to say about a LOT of the cast of “Survivor 43”, here I struggled to find people I DIDN’T have a lot of things to say about, for good and for ill.  That bodes well for at least an entertaining season.  But let’s talk about some miscellaneous topics, shall we?

No more delaying, time to address the Angelina in the room.  While it wasn’t as common as I thought on first read, it DID seem like people were mentioning Angelina more than they had in previous seasons.  What’s more, most of them were looking at her in a new light, saying she got a raw deal in the edit.  Is this some sort of Angelina Renaissance?  No, I think it’s an indication that, if these people are fans, they’re very RECENT fans.  Recall that “Survivor David vs. Goliath” was recently on Netflix, getting wider exposure than a lot of the other seasons of the show have had in some time.  It probably got a lot of new people interested in the show, thus explaining why Angelina seems to pop up, at least to me, more than she normally would.  This makes me doubt who deep their fandom is, but at the same time, this might be a good compromise.  I’m on the side of liking superfans on the show, but I can see the other side, who want people clueless about the game to prevent gameplay that feels overused.  As such, getting recent fans who know the game to a degree, but not encyclopedically, might be a good middle ground we can all enjoy.  

On a more negative note, I HATE these tribe names.  Apart from running afoul of my dislike of short tribe names, this season, perhaps more than any other, REALLY shows why staying in Fiji long-term is an issue.  Eventually, you run into similar sounding names, making it harder to distinguish tribes between seasons.  Here, I’ll do the rundown of similar names for the tribes right now: Ratu=Ravu, Soka=Soko, Tika=Tiva.  And that was just of the top of my head!  I’m sure I’d find more similarities if I actually did RESEARCH on this.  Not to mention, I’m surprised that the show was even ALLOWED to use “Ratu” for a tribe name.  I may not know much about Fijian culture, but one thing I DO know is the definition of “Ratu”, that being “chief”.  The OTHER thing I know is that Fijians are VERY picky about how the term gets used.  Jokes or irreverence for the term are a big no-no, and so I’m amazed, assuming they even had permission, that the show got to use it.  Even if so, though, it does not excuse the similar names.  Show, either come up with better names, or better yet, SHOOT IN LOCATIONS OTHER THAN FIJI!

Finally, while I did not consider medevacs in my placement predictions, and don’t think it’s fair to ask me to predict effectively an act of God with little outside evidence, here are who I think are the most likely medevac possibilities: Matthew due to the preview showing probably him falling off the rock, Lauren since we can assume Ratu loses someone besides Matthew from the preview and I think we would have remembered her hair, Carolyn due to her age/general lack of physical survival skills, and I’ll throw in Josh as a wild-card due to the immunosuppressants concern I voiced earlier.  

So there you have it, my thoughts on the cast!  Let me know what you all think, and assuming we’re still alive and the show is still airing in this apocalyptic hellscape, I look forward to blogging the premiere of “Survivor 44” for you all!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 42 Cast Assessment”

Ah, the sweet, sweet feeling of NOT needing to wait over a year to talk about new “Survivor” content.  Sure, the bios are still noticeably lacking in information, but hey, at least we actually GET the tribe divisions pre-season this time.  Already a leg up on the previous season, and for once that’s actually a compliment, and not meant as a dig at a bad season.  

Ladies, gentlemen, non-binary individuals, it is my esteemed pleasure to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to!  With the announcement of a new cast a month out from the show’s premiere, that mean’s it’s naturally time for me to make snap judgments about each of them that will inevitably be wrong, and then be mercilessly mocked for my ignorance later!  I’m sure you’ve all got your mocking sticks ready, so let’s waste no more time, and jump right into this cast assessment!

Jonathan Young (29, Beach Service Company Owner, Gulf Shores, AL, Taku Tribe): A fun fact about Jonathan is that he was a contest on the Discovery Kids show “Endurance”, a fact that he slyly references by using “Endurance”, with the capital “E” to describe himself.  Nice bit of subtlety there, Jonathan.  For those who don’t know, “Endurance” was kind of like “Survivor”, but for kids.  A group gets put in some wilderness (usually in the US for travel purposes), then compete against each other in a series of challenges, both physical and interpersonal, to become the last pair remaining and win the grand prize.  Will this help him on “Survivor”?  Eh, probably not much.  There’s worse training you can do, but “Endurance” was effectively catered cabin camping, as compared to the more brutal nature of “Survivor”, and the interpersonal politics only took one so far when elimination came down to effectively a game of “Rock, Paper, Scissors”.  Honestly, I think the thing that’s most helpful about Jonathan’s time on “Endurance” is the fact that his season was one of the few that went international.  They filmed in Fiji; in fact on the same island “Survivor” uses today.  Far-fetched as it may be, I could see Jonathan’s familiarity with the land being helpful in terms of finding idols and advantages in the game.  Tempting as it might be to look at Jonathan’s gameplay on “Endurance” for clues to how he’ll do here, the fact is that was 15 years ago, and a person changes a lot in that time.  As to how Jonathan is now?  He’s basically the most quintessential “Florida Man” I’ve ever seen, which is impressive for someone who doesn’t actually live in Florida.  The dude is all about athleticism and a good time, but not much else.  He compares himself to Ozzy, which seems apt given his strengths and weaknesses.  It speaks poorly of his chances of winning, but bear in mind the only time Ozzy went out pre-merge was because he ASKED to as a strategy.  As such, I’d put Jonathan in the same category: Coasts along on his strength early on, only to be picked off as a threat in the early-to-mid merge.  

Marya Sherron (47, Stay-At-Home Mom, Noblesville, IN, Taku Tribe): Normally I’d be down on the chances of the “Mom” archetype that Marya seems to play into, but as we saw with Tiffany and Heather last season, that can work to one’s advantage.  That said, there are some red flags I’m noticing for Marya.  The pet peeves rear their ugly head, as while one is relatively harmless to her chances (people who don’t cover their sneezes, which unless Bobby Jon Drinkard from “Survivor Palau” is secretly coming back this season, she probably doesn’t need to worry too much), but “meanness” is a bit harder to stomach.  Granted, it’s not as bad as one’s pet peeve being, say, “Liars”, but it’s not a particularly good sign in my book either.  She also talks about wanting to be a leader, and to play like Angelina (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) and Tony (“Survivor Cagayan”), which at best seems like a weird, slightly chaotic combination in my book.  Unfortunately, the real nail in the coffin for Marya is the tribe she’s on.  It’s probably the strongest of the three challenge-wise, which means she won’t be vulnerable for a few tribal councils most likely, but that’s partly because this tribe skews younger, making her stand out, which is particularly bad in the early days of “Survivor”.  They also skew fairly quirky, which again, not a word I would use to describe Marya.  She may not be the first target on their minds, unless she costs them a challenge, but I’d still expect Marya to be a pre-merge boot, though later rather than earlier within that category.  

Romeo Escobar (37, Pageant Coach, Norwalk, CA, Ika Tribe): You know, sometimes it’s really hard to pick a first boot out of a cast.  Perhaps because everyone seems relatively even in terms of tribe challenge ability, perhaps because everyone presents themselves really well, perhaps because people outright lie in their bio.  Then sometimes you get a Semhar Tadesse (“Survivor South Pacific”) whose very presence screams “First Boot”.  Unfortunately for Romeo, he falls into the latter category for me.  Right off the bat, he strikes me as the type who will bring a lot of drama.  Great for television, bad for sticking around, especially when tribes are this small.  When even he describes himself as “impatient”, you know you’ve got an issue.  Plus, while this is more of a personal annoyance, he’s about the only person on this cast who says “No player has been like me before.”  Now, as a pageant coach, Romeo must be used to dealing with big personalities, so if he had the opportunity to stick around a few days, and let others start drama of their own, I could see him having a decent run.  Unfortunately, he’s on what looks set to be the “disaster tribe” of this season, and by sticking out so much, he’s just doomed to an early exit should his tribe attend Tribal Council early, which they likely will.  Please prove me wrong man, but my gut says you’re doomed.  

Tori Meehan (25, Therapist, Rogers, AR, Ika Tribe): Hoo boy, here we go.  We need to talk about Tori.  Let’s go through her bio shall we?  Her pet peeves are “When people lack self-awareness, are emotionally reactive, immature, or petty.”  She brags about how easy it was to get through college debt-free.  She’s ultra-religious, literally listing Jesus as her hero, and referencing the importance of her faith over and over.  She DARES to compare herself to Kim Spradlin, arguably the greatest player of the game of all time.  She goes and has a degree similar to my own, thereby putting her in far too close proximity to myself for my liking.  And then, if what I’ve seen about her social media is to be believed, she’s a vaccine denier (though I’ll admit I don’t have firsthand information on this one).  All this combines to make Tori very likely to win the game.  That game of course being “Which Contestant Can Make Matt Despise Them The Quickest?”  The game of “Survivor”?  Not so much.  If she annoys me, chances are she’s going to annoy at least SOME other people out there, who are likely to end up on her tribe at some point.  And while I’m TRYING to not see overt religion as a red flag (as Shan proved last season, one can still play a competent game with overt religion as well), this feels too excessive even for me.  Her pet peeves, as should be obvious, do her no favors either.  So, with all these marks against her, why do I not say she’ll be the first boot over Romeo, whom I might actually ENJOY watching, given that she’s also on the likely “disaster tribe”?  Well… Much as I might WANT Tori to be sent packing super early, and much as I will enjoy the moment when it inevitably comes, we have a season preview to go off of, and that season preview gave us the bad news that Tori finds some advantage, presumably an idol based on her reading about the phrases to activate said idol.  For all my negative talk about Tori, she doesn’t seem to be an idiot, and so I think can be trusted to strategically play her idol to her advantage.  I suspect she leverages it with her tribe to get herself father in the game than her personality might otherwise indicate.  That said, she’s doomed at the merge, idol or no idol.  The problem is that with the larger merges these days, the merge bootee tends to be the person who can most easily bring the group to a consensus. and no one screams “Will annoy most people.” on this cast more than Tori.  As such, expect her to be gone right at the merge.  And oh, what a happy, happy merge it will be.  

Jackson Fox (48, Healthcare Worker, Houston, TX, Taku Tribe): Ah, this is the palate cleanser I needed.  While I have my favorites from spoiled cast previews, there’s a few that, when I read about them, surprise me pleasantly.  Jackson is that one this time, such that I nearly made him my pick to win it all.  Dude reminds me of a modern-day Lex Van Den Berghe (“Survivor Africa”) in that while first impression might lead to him seeming kind of freaky, he’s a real softie underneath, with good emotional awareness.  His comparison to Elaine from “Island of the Idols” seems both apt and in his favor in this case.  Sadly, there’s a couple of bits that stop me short of calling him my winner pick.  He’s the other “older person” on a younger-skewing tribe, though given his own quirks, I think this is less an issue for him than for Marya a few bios back.  More concerning is his pet peeve of “people who don’t get to the point” since “Survivor” LOVES to cast long-winded talkers.  Still, I’ve seen people with more concerning pet peeves do well, and I certainly don’t see Jackson being much vulnerable until the merge, as he seems to be on the tribe least likely to lose.  I’d say he probably leaves in the late merge for being too much of a threat, and if he can imitate Lex’s game without all the gut problems (both in terms of read and in terms of parasites), I’d say he has a decent shot to win it all.  Plus, the dude likes dogs.  How can you not root at least a little for someone who likes dogs?

Chanelle Howell (29, Executive Recruiter, New York, NY, Vati Tribe): Our first look at the “middle of the road” tribe.  More likely to win a challenge than Ika, less so than Taku.  Much like her tribe, Chanelle is kind of middle of the road for me.  Her bio is very guarded, without much to recommend her one way or the other.  There are a couple of red flags; notably she’s another one who dares to set a high bar by comparing herself to Kim Spradlin, and given how much she talks about analysis and numbers, I worry she may focus too much on the strategic side of the game, and not enough on the interpersonal one.  Even so, barring that she costs Vati a challenge (which I don’t see happening, but then I didn’t see Sara last season doing so either), there’s little reason to get rid of Chanelle, as she’s fairly inoffensive.  I’d expect her to be a mid-merge boot, possibly a decoy to flush an idol.  Either way, will be a decent player, around for a decent amount of time.  

Omar Zaheer (31, Exotic Animal Veterinarian, Whitby, Ontario, Canada, Taku Tribe): Ah, now HERE we’re getting to the good stuff.  Omar stood out to me for name alone, and the more I read his bio, the more I fell in love, and not just because he listed “Settlers of Catan” as a hobby.  The dude just exudes “fun” and “humor” from every orifice, and I am here for every minute of it.  Now, on paper, Omar’s got some issues.  While only one of his pet peeves (rudeness) is likely to come up frequently in the game (I don’t see many vet bills coming on the island, and I don’t think pigeons are indigenous to Fiji), the sheer number of them is concerning.  Plus, he makes the opposite mistake when comparing himself to past players, trying to hybridize too many than to few (including, yet again, Kim Spradlin).  However, one must not only consider the charm that comes through a mere photo of the guy, but also his instance on the motto of “They must learn to adapt, or they’ll be voted out of the tribe.”  The very core of the game, yet one not overtly emphasized by most players these days.  Very refreshing to see, and speaks well of his chances, in my opinion.  So, is he my winner pick?  Yeah… No…  While I do expect him to do well, probably making the finale, he’s out at five or four for certain.  No one wants to let charm like that get to the end, and while decent at challenges, I don’t see him immunitying his way to a win.  Despite his charm, given his quirks I would actually have him out fairly early were it not again for the season preview, which shows him aligning with another smart person (yet to be talked about) on his tribe, and I think the pair of them can take control.  Rest assured, he’d be a goner if he wasn’t on what’s likely to be the dominant tribe.  As is, he’ll definitely do well, but much as I’d like to say he kicks everyone’s butt with his airbending prowess, even with his advantaged position he just doesn’t have the prowess to clinch the win.  Also, kudos to the five of you who understand why I made that specific reference in relation to Omar.  

Swati Goel (19, Ivy League Student, Palo Alto, CA, Ika Tribe): Sadly, Swati is our major case of “Someone who would probably do ok were they on a different tribe for the season.”  True, Swati has a couple of red flags even given her tribe, notably complaining about people who are “emotionally manipulative”,  and admiring human scum Elon Musk.  That said, it’s hard for me to diss a fellow theater kid, and I applaud her comparing herself favorably to the underrated players of Victoria Baamonde (“Survivor Edge of Extinction”) and Kass McQuillen (“Survivor Cagayan”).  Honestly, the good and bad kind of balance out, and given how drama filled this tribe is, they’d have bigger fish to fry, and she can coast by for a while.  That’s what I would be saying were it not for the presence of Tori and her advantage/idol, where Swati I think is likely going to be the victim.  She may not be the top of everyone’s hit list, but when those on the bottom swing into power, she suddenly drops in stock, and unfortunately goes pre-merge.  Again, a shame for a fellow theater kid, but I call them as I see them.  

Hai Giang (29, Data Scientist, New Orleans, LA, Vati Tribe): Hai is another one I was kind of “meh” on at first glance, but grew to love the more I read about him.  While the dude is another one who tends more towards the strategic side of the game, rather than the interpersonal, he has a sense of justice and humanity that I think helps balance it out.  More concerning are, again, his pet peeves, which include judgmental people and patronizing people, both of which are likely to show up on “Survivor”.  The best I can say is he probably doesn’t have to worry about people wearing shoes indoors here.  That said, I have a hard time poo-pooing someone who identifies with the great Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”), and given that he’s a likely challenge anchor on a tribe that will need to keep strength around to have a chance, Hai will still around until at least the early merge, if not the mid-merge.  Really, he’s going to be his own undoing, as I see his sense of justice leading to him potentially falling on his sword (or torch) for someone else he’s allied with.  Overall nice guy who will stick around at least a decent amount of time.  Always good to see.  

Lindsay Dolashewich (31, Dietitian, Asbury Park, NJ, Taku Tribe): Lindsay better hope that the Taku Tribe is truly dominant, as in going to Tribal Council no more than once pre-merge.  Otherwise, she’s going to have an issue.  Age-wise, Lindsay is a good fit for her tribe, but she seems very stiff-backed and set in her ways based on her bio.  Add on her self-describing as “loud”, and she can get on one’s nerves very easily.  That said, this is a fairly quirky tribe, and one unlikely to have a lot of early boots, which probably saves Lindsay’s bacon for a bit.  Marya stands out more, and so will go first, but Lindsay probably goes somewhere in the early merge.  That said, she does compare herself to the underrated Lauren Beck (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), and recognizes that social game is paramount.  If she can channel that strategic acumen and social grace, and manage to avoid being as sound as she normally is, she could have a deep run.  

Mike Turner (58, Retired Firefighter, Hoboken, NJ, Vati Tribe): How nice of CBS to let Eric Abraham from last season chance his name and get a second shot.  Seriously, older retired African-American dude, big on loyalty and playing the long game?  I could pretty much just copy/past Eric’s bio from last season, and it would take a minute to notice the difference.  Dude seems likable enough, but as Eric demonstrated last season, such a long, basic game doesn’t work on a shortened season with a ton of twists.  Mike does SLIGHTLY better than Eric given that his tribe is more competent, and there are more obvious early targets, but like his counterpart, I just don’t see Mike making the merge in this group.  

Lydia Meredith (22, Waitress, Santa Monica, CA, Vati Tribe): Some players are here for strategy, some players are here for entertainment, some players are here for both.  Time will tell Lydia’s strategic capabilities, but from her bio alone, she will be entertaining.  The name of the game is comedy, folks.  Lydia is an aspiring comedian, and first describes herself as “funny” before all else.  How will that translate to the island?  Frankly, it depends upon how good the comedy is, which I have no way of assessing just from her bio.  Save for her player comparisons.  In addition to the odd choice of Tom Westman (“Survivor Palau”), she mentions Cirie (“Survivor Exile Island”) and Debbie Wanner (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  One intentionally funny and good at the social game, one unintentionally funny and bad at the social game.  I leave it to the fans to figure out which is which.  Lydia’s got a shot at making it deep if she channels the former, but even if she channels the latter, unless her comedy REALLY bombs, I see her making at least the merge.  She’s lucky that she’s not on the disaster tribe, and that there are other more obvious targets before her.  I have a hard time seeing her winning, but I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t at least make the early merge, and could even go mid-merge if she’s more Cirie than Debbie.  

Rocksroy Bailey (44, Stay-At-Home Dad, Las Vegas, NV, Ika Tribe): No matter how disastrous a tribe may be, there’s always at least one person from it who makes it deep.  Such is the case with Rocksroy here, who is my male pick to win the whole shebang!  On a tribe that’s going to need challenge strength, Rocksroy is clearly their big gun, and likely in no danger early on as a result.  His pet peeve being drivers not using their turn signal also helps endear me to the guy, though I will say that “someone who thinks they know everything” is a bit more concerning game-wise.  The guy is brief in his bio. so there’s not a lot to go on, but enough that you feel like you know him.  What can I say, playing one’s cards close to the chest is a good thing on “Survivor”.  Plus, I feel like the dude is good at compartmentalizing and keeping secrets.  My evidence?  Like I said, this case got spoiled early, and spoilers come with pictures.  The one exception?  Rocksroy.  If the dude is good enough to keep his online presence such a secret there’s no good quality photos of him around, the dude is good enough to keep secrets on “Survivor”.  And once again, even the photo, dude exudes charm, and that charm alone is enough to make him my first winner pick of the season.  

Jenny Kim (43, Creative Director, New York, NY, Vati Tribe): Remember how I said there were some obvious targets should Vati go to Tribal Council?  Yeah, Jenny is definitely the big one here.  Being outspoken and in a leadership role works well in business, but on “Survivor”, particularly on small tribes that might not gel with your leadership style, they only make you a target.  jenny has a good shot if she can quietly lead from the sidelines, but I don’t see someone who describes themselves as “direct” doing very well with that.  Add onto that a concerning pet peeve (“Arrogant people and those with a sense of entitlement.”), along with less-obvious challenge prowess (though by no means a challenge sink), and Jenny becomes the obvious first pick for a boot should she attend an early Tribal.  As she’s not on the likely dominant tribe, I fear her fate is to be another robbed goddess, another pre-merge boot.  

Daniel Strunk (30, Law Clerk, New Haven, CT, Vati Tribe): Ah, our resident nerd archetype for the season, as well as the second person we confirmed to find an idol/advantage based on the season preview.  Daniel early on worms his way into my heart with his love of Legos, and fortunately I think he’ll be around for a while for this love to grow.  No real red flags apart from one of his pet peeves being “people so convinced they’re right they foreclose debate”, though I suppose the show could disguise some oatmeal raisin cookies as chocolate chip cookies to throw him off his game.  He also talked about admiring Supreme Court Justices of vastly different ideologies.  Perhaps a bit of a stretch, but I feel like this might indicate that he’s good at reaching across the aisle and work with pretty much anyone.  Always a useful skill on “Survivor”.  Sadly, the time of nerds being 100% dominant has passed, and so Daniel will not be our winner.  That said, just because nerds often do well and now getting targeted doesn’t mean Daniel can’t match that level of success.  His social acumen, coupled with his idol, to me makes him a mid-to-late merge boot, particularly since there’s often bigger targets than him no matter if he’s in the Tribal phase or the Merge phase.  

Maryanne Oketch (24, Seminary Student, Ajax, Ontario, Canada, Taku Tribe): Seems we’re just getting all the guaranteed idol/advantage finds out of the way here.  Yes, Omar may have REACTED to her find, but Maryanne is the one who actually FINDS the thing on the Taku Tribe.  Maryanne is… Well, the best word I have is “quirky”, but again, a lot of this tribe is quirky.  I’d say she’s in danger early, but she’s on the tribe least likely to lose on paper, and we know she finds something powerful, and I expect her and Omar to leverage that to become the power couple on the tribe.  Unlike Omar, however, I expect Maryanne to leverage her advantage to a win.  Yes, Maryanne is my female pick to win the whole thing.  This might come as a surprise, given her occupation, but again, Shan has made me see that as less of a red flag, and that’s really the only mention of her religion we get from Maryanne, so I think she’ll be able to compartmentalize well.  Granted, her pet peeves have ALL the red flags, and between her and Rocksroy, I’d say she’s my less-comfortable winner pick, but given that she has time to adjust, I think she can probably overcome these issues.  Besides, if Danny McCray can overcome “liars” as a pet peeve last season, Maryanne can overcome “People who don’t listen to me… hypocrites, and people who don’t apologize.”  If she can sleep well, she’ll do fairly well.  It’ll also help is she takes her cues from her previous contestant comparison.  Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) had charm coming out his ears, and I feel like Maryanne might as well.  Plus, she’s a fan of tabletop games.  How can I not root for her?

Zach Wurtenberger (22, Student, St. Louis, MO, Ika Tribe): Oh dear, guess I spoke too soon with Swati.  Look, Zach seems like a nice kid,  Not much to recommend him one way or the other, though I will say his particularly young age (second youngest in the group) is a bit of a mark against, and unlike Lydia, I HAVE seen his comedy.  It’s… Not CRINGE-WORTHY, but not exactly good either.  None of this would really be a death knell, but he’s unfortunately on what’s likely to be the disaster tribe, and thus probably another pre-merge boot.  Sorry, man.  Hope for another “Second Chances” season where you get a better tribe draw.  

Drea Wheeler (35, Fitness Consultant, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Ika Tribe): Rounding out our cast, we have the person who, at first glance, I THOUGHT was going to be my main winner pick for the season.  True, she’s on the likely disaster tribe, but like I said, SOME on the disaster tribe have to make it through, and as Drea is a likely challenge beast, she was not likely to be a target on such a tribe.  Then, as I read into the bio, my hopes were dashed.  I’ve tried to be kinder to the pet peeves this season, and give people the benefit of a doubt where they can overcome them, but when your SOLE one is “Dishonest people”?  Yeah, kind of an issue on “Survivor”.  Granted, she’s still going to be around a while given the Kelley Wentworth (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) comparison, if she can pull it off, and the need for athleticism on her tribe means she’s likely to stick around a while, just not a winner pick anymore.  Still, look for her out no earlier than the mid-merge, probably with an immunity run in their somewhere.  

Well, there we go!  With one major exception, pretty likable cast, and for once, firmer predictions than usual!  Overall I’m very satisfied, though not satisfied enough to sit and wait for the season to start to begin blogging.  Be on the lookout for something old, and something new, before the new season begins March 9th!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 41” Cast Assessment

Congratulations to Rob for correctly identifying the title quote from last episode as originating from Charlie Herschel of “Survivor Gabon”.  Yes, I’m well aware that the contest was over a year ago, but so help me, we haven’t had a “regular” blog since then, and this commenter has EARNED their honor, delayed as it may be.  

Friends, readers, random-internet-passers-by, it is my pleasure, once again, to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to!  Yes, after over a year of starvation, we finally, FINALLY have new “Survivor” content to talk about.  Granted, I could wish for a bit more.  I mean, we have gotten the “EW” pictures and biographies, which are usually the marker for when I do these Cast Assessments, but you don’t want to give us anything?  No photos and bios of your own?  No videos of each of the contestants talking about their strategy?  You’re not even going to give us the official tribe divisions?  Of course not!  I mean, HEAVEN FORBID we know who’s playing with whom before the start of the season!  How dare we analyze tribe dynamics, and speculate pre-season, thereby driving up interest and internet traffic?  Do you know where that leads?  Chaos!  Chaos I say!  

Ok, ok, enough griping at CBS.  I can still work with this, even if it’s not as much as I’m used to, and I can’t analyze tribe dynamics as I normally do (yes, I’m aware that there’s a rumored tribe division from “Inside Survivor”, but until the divisions are announced officially, I don’t consider it canon, and thus won’t write about it.  And I’m not going to frame-by-frame the preview we DID get to try and match people with buff colors.  I do have something of a life).  So, no more joking around.  let us dig into the new players we, at long last, get to overanalyze.  

Sydney Segal (26, Law Student, Brooklyn, NY): Always nice to start off a cast assessment with a strong contender.  Yes, I think Sydney is slated to do pretty well on this season.  By and large, her bio is nothing to write home about.  Pretty standard stuff, talking about how social and athletic she is.  I find it a little weird to specifically refer to your father as a “second Messiah”, but hey, you do you.  The thing that stood out to me, and the thing that makes me high on Sydney’s chances, is the “Survivor” she compares herself to.  If you’re someone new to reading cast bios, you should know that there’s a group of about a half-dozen former players who generally show up in people’s biographies.  You can expect Boston Rob (“Survivor Marquesas”), Parvati Shallow (“Survivor Cook Islands”), Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”), and Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) always show up, and to me, always spell doom for whoever picks the latter.  Then, of course, there are the “recency bias” picks, i.e. good players, but ones who only come from the most recent seasons, indicating this may just be someone production emphasized to the player.  Kelley Wentworth (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) falls into this category, but she seems to have been replaced by Rick Devans (“Survivor Edge of Extinction”) based on this most recent set of bios.  Now, who does Sydney say she’s most like?  Natalie White, winner of “Survivor Samoa”.  That’s a deep cut, right there.  Hard for anyone to stand out on “Survivor Samoa”, aka “The Russell Hantz Show”, so Syndey’s memory of her tells me she’s got the bona-fides.  Sydney also has a good analysis of Natalie’s game, noting her strength in social bonds and flying under the radar.  A solid analysis, and hardly a bad strategy for the game at all.  Sadly, I think Sydney is screwed out of a possible win by the age in which she plays “Survivor”.  Not to say that the “Natalie Strategy” as we may call it isn’t valid anymore, but the new jury format is pretty much set up to reward “big moves”, and more visible games.  While the “Natalie Strategy” has many upsides, visibility is not one of them.  Still, even if she’s unlikely to win, expect Sydney to stick around a while.  She’s got some good skills and is largely inoffensive, so there’s no need to boot her early.  Look to her as a later merge boot, possibly even one of the people out early in the finale.  Sure, I may be extrapolating a lot from a bio that didn’t give us a lot, but hey, if you don’t do anything that stands out as making you an early target, I say you’ve got at least a decent chance.  Besides, you could also say that Michele Fitzgerald’s bio on “Survivor Kaoh Rong” didn’t give us a lot to work with, and we saw how that turned out.  

Danny McCray (33, Ex-NFL Player, Frisco, TX): Hoo boy.  It’s time once again.  Time for the segment of “People Who Are Crazy For Thinking They’re Made For This Show”.  Look, Danny seems like a nice, overall dude.  I admire him for not just relying on his talent in sports to carry him through his entire life, and his drive to continue to improve himself at what the show considers an “older” age.  But one of the main things I look at in these bios is the “Pet Peeve” section, since I feel it can give a good idea of how well you get along with others, and if your first pet peeve is “Lying”?  Man, what were you thinking!  Sure, go on the show all about lying and backstabbing when that very thing gets to you.  See how far that gets you.  Danny has a lot of good characteristics, but unless his tribe needs physical strength very badly, or he’s able to put his distaste for lying aside, the man is a pre-merge boot for sure.  

Liana Wallace (20, College Student, Washington, DC): I’ll admit, I got a bit worried when I saw Liana talk about performing her spoken word poetry.  Nothing against the art form or those who practice it, but it gave me flashbacks to Semhar from “Survivor South Pacific”, whose game is NOT one you want to emulate.  Thankfully, this is where their similarities end, so I think Liana will do pretty well on the show.  Not a lot to recommend her one way or the other.  She just seems like a nice, adventurous, younger player who won’t hold her team back anyway, and be pretty inoffensive overall.  Two things stop me from saying she’ll make it too deep, though.  She suggests emulating Tony (“Survivor Cagayan”) and Elaine (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), so I don’t know about her game knowledge credentials, as both were on the last two seasons.  Plus, I don’t see their play styles meshing very well.  The real thing that I think holds her back from a win, though, is her age.  I know we’ve had winners nearly as young before, but I think back to my college days, and even though I THOUGHT I had the skills to win at that time, I really didn’t.  I had more growing-up to do, and while Liana seems lovely overall, I just have a hard time saying anyone that young has a good shot at winning.  Still, like Sydney earlier, Liana is an inoffensive asset to her tribe, so I expect her to be out no earlier than the early-merge, and probably more like mid-merge, given the group of people on this season.  

Brad Reese (50, Rancher, Shawnee, WY): A fun fact about Brad is that he’s the first player to ever hail from the state of Wyoming.  Perhaps not surprising, as it does have the smallest population in the USA, but still fun.  I hope Brad enjoys that fact, because there’s little else to recommend him.  His bio gives us practically nothing, just a lot of generic platitudes about strength and outdoorsmanship.  As such, we have to consider how well he fits in with this group of players as a whole.  Not well.  The answer is not well.  Brad has the misfortune of being an older guy on a season that, while not as bad as some, skews young overall.  Brad is a rural outdoorsman, while most of this cast is urban.  If Brad had talked a bit about his ability to fit in with diverse groups of people, I might give him more of a shot, but amongst this group, Brad sticks out like a sore thumb, and I just don’t see him getting along with these people.  As such, Brad is my pick to be the first person out this season.  Sorry, Brad, and sorry, Wyoming.  Maybe you can get another player with a group more simpatico to their lifestyle.  

Erika Casupanan (32, Communication Manager, Toronto, ON): At last, Canada has a representative on this show!  Ok, yeah, they had Tom Laidlaw on “Survivor Island of the Idols”, but really, did they, for all the impact Tom had on the season?  Besides, Erika is a MUCH better representative overall.  Yes, ladies and gentlemen, we go from the worst to the best.  Erika is one of my two winner picks for this season!  Why, you may ask?  Well, as with most of the winners, she has a good balance.  Athletic, without seeming to be a threat.  Sociable, without descending into obsequiousness.  From her questionnaire, while she does list “ignorance” as one of her pet peeves, she’s not guaranteed to come up against it, and her other, “men in ill-fitting jeans” shows a good sense of humor on her part, always an asset.  She calls out good but less remembered-players in Brenda (“Survivor Nicaragua”) and Todd (“Survivor China”) as her inspirations.  And all in an unassuming package.  If I HAD to find a flaw that could cost her the game, I could see her being slightly arrogant.  She talks about paying off her student loan debt at age 27, and if she brags about that, or how smart she is, that could cost her.  That said, she seems to have enough social sense to keep that on the down-low, and I can easily see her rocketing to victory.  

Jairus Robinson (20, College Student”, Oklahoma City, OK): Jairus is one of the few players here that I have a bit more information on than some of the others.  His audition video happened to show up on YouTube, and I watched it.  This is good, because a lot of Jairus’ bio comes off as overconfident, talking about how he’s good socially, mentally, and physically.  Pretty generic, semi-bragging stuff that you see from most people, but again, especially with his age, could easily be him having a bad perception of himself.  Having seen his audition video, I can say that’s he’s not ENTIRELY unjustified in his claims.  If nothing else, the dude just EXUDES charm, and even from a 3-minute video, you can’t help but like the guy.  So yeah, of all the young people on this season, he’s the one I think his age will be least a factor for.  Still a factor, though.  Jairus will do reasonably well, being useful to his tribe and charming enough to work his way into an alliance, but will be blindsided some time in the mid-merge, just by being proverbially spun around by contestants with more life experience.  Good fodder for a returnee winner, though.  

Evvie Jagoda (28, Ph.D. Student, Arlington, MA): This is where the lack of tribe divisions gives me issue, as Evvie’s time in the game is almost entirely dependent on who she ends up playing with early game.  Her pet peeve, you see, is “machismo and man-splainers”.  There are some guys like that on the season, and thus who she’ll come into conflict with if she’s with them.  Given that these type of people tend to be useful in challenges, and thus more likely to be kept around, she’s probably out early if she’s with some of them.  Conversely, if she ends up on a tribe without such men, I could see her doing well.  She seems like she’d be a sensible, reliable alliance member.  A bit quirky, perhaps, but fun nonetheless.  That said, this blog does force me to pick one side or the other, and without the benefit of tribe divisions to give me an easy out… Sorry, Evvie, but I think you’re another pre-merge boot.  While I personally enjoy someone who’s quirky, and can hold a good, intelligent conversation (she spent an entire podcast talking about Neanderthal women.  That is awesome.), said type of person also tends to stand out in a crowd, not a good thing in the early days of “Survivor”.  I pray that I’m wrong, as I really like her and think she makes for good tv, but if I have to choose, I think pre-merge for her, unfortunately.  

Ricard Foye (31, Flight Attendant, Sedro-Wooley, WA): Apologies for not having an accent over the “e” in “Foye”, but I can never remember how to do that with a standard English keyboard.  Getting onto Ricard specifically, I like the guy.  In fact, I’d say he’s my favorite of the season. He’s charming, but still with a personality that stands out.  Dude has a lot of eclectic life experiences, but still down to earth with a relatable career and family life.  And that smile.  Dude just has a really engaging smile.  That alone may be enough to catapult him to victory, as Ricard is my second winner pick overall.  Put a gun to my head and force me to choose, I think Erika beats him, but Ricard still has pretty good shot.  Once again fairly athletic, but not obviously so.  But like I said, the dude just exudes charm, and I’m a social game like “Survivor”, it’s hard to discount the value of that.  With no major negatives that I can note, I can’t help but give the guy my seal of approval, and my second winner pick.  Plus, the dude says he wants to emulate Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  Can’t help but like a dude that likes Aubry.  

Shantel Smith (34, Pastor, Washington, DC): Ooh, sorry, Canada.  Not hitting on both cylinders, even this time.  Yes, I know that Shantel is currently not living in Canada, but it’s her hometown, so she still counts.  At first, I was pretty high on Shantel.  Good age for self-knowledge and game knowledge.  Good life experience.  “Bad breath” as a pet peeve a bit concerning, but hey, you don’t need to stand nose-to-nose with someone while they’re talking, and maybe her tribe will win the “toothbrush and mouthwash” reward.  A good role model in Xena.  But ooh, the religion angle.  Long-time readers will know I’m gun-shy about such overt religion on “Survivor” ever since we were seeped in it in “Survivor South Pacific”.  Yes, since then some overtly religious individuals such as Lisa Welchel (“Survivor Philippines”) or Sunday Burquest (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) have done well, but the overall trend is more towards religion separating that person from other, less-religious people, particularly in a largely a-religious cast like this one seems to be.  I tried to ignore it, and when Shantel predominately cites her “reverence for God”, as why she’ll win, I can’t ignore it any longer.  She’s not the first boot by any means, but I expect her out pre-merge.  

Naseer Muttalif (37, Sales Manager, Morgan Hill, CA): Poor Naseer.  The guy seems like an interesting character with a unique backstory, so I wanted to see him do well.  Sales is one of the few careers that I think CAN help one prepare for “Survivor” in some small way, so I hoped that Naseer might be able to parlay that into a long stay in the game.  Unfortunately, the rest of his bio does not do him any favors.  His pet peeves are “Laziness and people who don’t contribute to group efforts”, meaning unless he’s on a VERY cohesive and successful tribe early on, he’s going to rub some people the wrong way.  Then you have to add onto that his backstory, which is interesting.  He talks about coming up from being a vegetable farmer, and growing up without electricity in Sri Lanka.  Good stuff, but the dude comes across a bit arrogant, in the “I’m living the American Dream” kind of way.  Not saying he hasn’t earned it, but that kind of talk can get old fast, and if he keeps bringing it up, it won’t do him any favors.  It’s possible he can be more sociable thanks to his sales training, and if his tribe is successful early on, he might make the merge.  There, though, he becomes a threat, so I see him making it no farther than an early-merge boot of this season, unfortunately.  

Genie Chen (46, Grocery Clerk, Portland, OR): Ack!  Pain!  PAIN!  This hurts.  So much.  God Damn, I love Genie already.  An older lady who likes video games.  An older lady not afraid to get out and hustle.  Her pet peeves revolve around proper mask wearing, you guys!  If you don’t love Genie at least a little, then I don’t know what happened to you.  But love, unfortunately, does not win the game of “Survivor”, and much like Evvie, the very things that make me like her are the things that make her a likely early boot on the show.  She’s older and not as athletic; always an issue in the early game.  She stands out from the other contestants, which again, good tv, bad for game.  Unless she’s on an exceptionally winning tribe, she’s going to be an early target and our screens will be the worse for it.  I hope that I’m wrong.  I hope she becomes the next Lauren Rimmer (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”), and shows us heretofore unexpected social prowess that allows her to get deep and dominate the game!  More likely, however, she’s yet another pre-merge boot.  

Xander Hastings (21, App Developer, Chicago, IL): I swear this bio must be wrong.  It may say he’s 21, but the guy gives off more of a “20 year old” vibe than any of the ACTUAL 20 year olds!  A dude-bro to the end, the dude focusses on athletics above all else.  Hell, his idols in the game are predominately Jay (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”), but also Joe (“Survivor Worlds Apart”), and Devon (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”).  Maybe it’s just my disdain for the dude-bro archetype (a large contributing factor in why I disagree with those who say Reynold from “Survivor Caramoan” should play again), but I REALLY don’t like this guy, and I get the sense that others won’t as well.  I would not put any of the above players into the “stellar player” category, but Xander is DEFINITELY beneath them.  Those guys had a certain charm, and at least a MODICUM on intelligence to help them get by.  I get none of that from Xander, and thus, he is yet another pre-merge boot.  Plus, on top off all that stuff, his pet peeves are “Laziness and cockiness”, two things that are clearly NEVER seen on this show (please note the sarcasm)!

Sara Wilson (24, Healthcare Consultant, Boston MA): Well, there’s one of these in every cast assessment.  One person who I just can’t get a good read on.  Nothing.  This woman gives me nothing.  Her pet peeves are pretty typical (loud chewing, crude humor, etc.), with only uncleanliness standing out at all, and even then only in a minor way.  Admires Kim Spradlin of “Survivor One World”, which is always a plus, though I’m not sure Sara has the life experience to pull it off.  And that’s it.  that’s all I’ve got for her.  She’s inoffensive, but doesn’t make a big splash on the tv screen.  That said, being quiet can be an advantage, and again, like with Sydney, if you’ve got nothing holding you back, I’m inclined to think you’ll do well.  We may not see much of Sara, but she’ll be there a while.  Probably out somewhere in the mid-merge area, as a blindside vote to avoid an idol.  

David Voce (35, Neurosurgeon, Chicago, IL): Once again, bad flashbacks based on an element of the bio.  This time, I see “Neurosurgeon”, and I jump to Sean Kenniff of “Survivor Borneo”.  Terrible at strategy, but hey, fun to watch.  Sadly, while David definitely has a leg up on Sean in terms of strategy, I’d say charm is severely lacking.  Similar to Xander, his pet peeves are “incompetence, laziness, and a lack of self-awareness”.  Can pretty much guarantee at least 2/3 of those on any given tribe on any given season.  Dude’s smart, which can help, but admits to a “confident exterior”, which can lead to arrogance, which again, get’s old fast.  His nail in the coffin is that he’s yet another person who thinks it’s a good idea to emulate Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”).  To be fair, he DOES acknowledge the flaws in Russell’s game, and names several other players he feels he embodies, but it’s a resume stain that’s REALLY hard to rub away.  He’s lucky in that there’s a couple of other players we’ve talked about so far (Xander in particular), who have some similar issues that he does, and in a greater capacity in my assessment, which may make him seem more reasonable and even-keeled by comparison.  The thought won’t go away in others, however, particularly if David doesn’t end up on a tribe with someone else as confident as him  He’s probably smart enough to slip by pre-merge, but once all the other people who annoy the rest of the cast are gone, he’s on the chopping block.  Assuming another oversized merge, he’s probably the easy consensus boot for annoying everyone else, and goes then.  

Deshawn Radden (26, Medical Student, Miami, FL): I’ve been kind of hard on the guys lately, haven’t I?  Thankfully, Deshawn gives me a well-deserved break from that!  The dude starts out a bit weak in his bio, to be fair.  Pet peeve is being told what to do, which is bound to come up.  Apart from that, however, the man is solid.  Another athlete who is not obviously athletic, and a charmer with a great smile.  Obviously a thinker, but not leaning into the “nerd” archetype so much, which makes for a nice change.  Yeah, a lot of other people have said similar things, and I gave them flak for it, but I’m charmed by the guy even just looking at his picture.  If, in the game, he has even a fraction of that charm, he’ll go far.  The pet peeve is enough to keep him out of a possible winner’s slot for me, and if he does get into an argument with the wrong person, he could go early, but I’d expect his charm to carry him for a while.  Probably mid-to-late merge area, if I were to put a relative number on it.  

Tiffany Seely (47, Teacher, Plainview, NY): Another case where I REALLY wish we had tribe divisions.  Tiffany is our “Mom” of the season, an archetype with an overall bad track record outside of Tina Wesson (“Survivor The Australian Outback”).  Granted, this season has a fair share of “older players”, but it still skews young, and the general trend on “Survivor” is that the young people either vote out the “Mom” early, or let her get to the end and then are upset that she voted them out.  Tiffany really needs to be on a tribe with a couple other older people, both for camouflage and to prevent being cast too fully as the “Mom”.  Not helped are her choices of whom to emulate on the season.  I’m always a fan when people name a contestant of a different gender whom they’re like, but Ozzy (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Colby (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) are not the type of games that do well these days.  Unless she gets lucky with the tribe draw, expect Tiffany to be a pre-merge boot.  

Eric Abraham (51, Cyber Security Analyst, San Antonio, TX): Eric falls into the rare “Dad” archetype, in my assessment.  This makes him tough to analyze, as there’s not really anyone else who falls into the “Dad” role so easily and obviously as Eric does.  I thought they might focus on his cyber-security job; come across as really analytical and the like  But Eric seems to see himself more as a father and family man than anything.  This can be good and comforting, and while a benefit, I don’t see him winning “Survivor” with that strategy.  It falls into a similar pitfall as the “Mom” archetype, with any betrayal seeming personal.  Plus, anyone with an Oedipus complex is going to want Eric out.  While it’s hard to psychoanalyze people based off a short interview, however, I don’t see anyone going quite that far, and thus, I don’t see Eric being an early target.  Yes, he is old.  In fact, he’s the second-oldest person playing this season.  But you wouldn’t know it from looking at him, so unless he’s the reason his tribe loses an early challenge, I expect Eric’s fatherly demeanor to keep him around a while.  Probably a mid-merge boot, maybe a bit earlier if someone really wants to go full Oedipus.  

Heather Aldret (52, Stay-at-Home Mom, Charleston SC): Well, I spoke too soon.  Meet the ACTUAL mom archetype of the season, as well as the oldest person playing.  Sadly for Heather, I don’t think she has even Tiffany’s ability to blend in.  Older, not obviously athletic, an archetype with a tendency to go out early?  Yeah, she may pay lip service to her skills at observation, and make reasonable player comparisons for herself, but unless she surprises me with evidence to back it up, I don’t see her lasting very long.  Even if she ends up on a tribe with other “older” players, she’s from a different lifestyle than most of the other players this season.  Nothing wrong with that, but it makes it difficult for her to fit in, and thus tanks her chances in the game.  We end on the downer note of one final pre-merge boot.  

Man, that was refreshing!  I may not be able to discuss tribe dynamics here but I can still discuss the cast.  I’ve gotta say, I think it’s a pretty good one.  In the COVID-19 Hiatus, amongst other things, CBS promised more diversity in casting, with at least 50% of each cast being BIPOC, a decision I’m all for, and I think this cast alone shows the benefits of doing so!  For all my snark, this is overall an engaging, likable cast.  Most everyone brings at least some unique experience to the table that adds to the flavor of the whole season, and there’s no one I really dislike on sight (except for Xander, and I’ll leave myself open to the possibility that his bio brought out the worst in him, and he’ll actually be quite a likable guy on-screen).  Obviously, we don’t know how things could play out, but based on the VERY little information we’ve gotten, I’m optimistic about how this season will play out.  

Then, we should at least talk a bit about the one video CBS DID deign to give us: A 3-minute preview where Probst talks about things to come.  First off, I was glad to see that they’re not hiding the fact that the season is shortened due to COVID-19.  I have nothing against them shortening the season, recognizing its necessity, but was afraid they might try and pull the wool over our eyes.  Thankfully, they fully admit the abbreviated nature of the season, and as such, I default to what seems to be people’s general attitudes towards this change: “Nothing wrong with it, but I hope it doesn’t stay as a permanent fixture post-COVID”.  As a fan who does enjoy the challenges, I fear that if seasons stay abbreviated, those’ll be the first things to get the axe.  The game will still be the game we all enjoy, and faster or slower, it’s good to have it back.  If this is what it takes, it’s a more than fair price.  

Probst was also keen to tout simple play-along picture puzzles for younger viewers.  Unless they’re super-intrusive, and distract from the game, I don’t mind the inclusion.  The puzzles seemed a bit simplistic to me, but hey, they’re explicitly for kids, and engagement is a good thing.  One of the few things I actually liked about “Survivor Nicaragua” was the giving us a similarly-styled idol clue to try and figure out before the players.  Fun, engaging idea.  Just don’t let it get in the way of what we came to see.  

The announcement I have the most opinions on, though, is the “asides”.  Probst has said he and production plan to let fans watching know about twists thrown in the game before they happen.  I’ll have to wait and see how they’re implemented before giving a final judgement, but I’m not a fan of this idea at the outset.  Don’t misunderstand, I get why they plan to do it.  It’s more engagement, like with the puzzles, though this time more for the older fans watching.  But for me, I feel like we superfans already did that.  Whenever some new twist or opportunity was in the game, we always backseat game.  Debated what we would have done in another player’s shoes.  But above all, knowing the twist before it happens ruins the surprise, and kind of kills the engagement in a way.  When we learn about a twist the same time as the players, we can play along with them.  React in the moment.  Probst, however, is talking about letting us know the twists early, before the players do.  This gives us more time to think, and actually removes us more from the players, rather than bringing us closer to them.  Plus, when the show is already struggling to fit everything it has into its short air time, extra narration is something we DO NOT NEED!  

That said, it’s usually cast, not production decisions, that make or break a season.  There are exceptions (see “Survivor Edge of Extinction”), but on the whole, you have a good cast, you have a good season.  For my money, it looks like “Survivor 41” has quite a good cast, so I look forward to writing with you all about them on a weekly basis come September 22nd!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.