Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Finale: Tubthumping

Yeah, yeah, I know.  Two music references for a title in a row.  But so help me, it was too tempting to resist!  Owen all but directly says “I get knocked down, but I get up again.  You’re never gonna keep me down.” this episode.  Plus, I could point out that pop and show tunes are completely different genres, but that’s just splitting hairs, and not entirely accurate anyway.  Though I’ll agree it IS a little weird that Owen has twice in a row inspired music-based titles.  Wonder what his stance on show tunes is?

Starting off our episode proper, we dive almost immediately to a flashback from the last episode.  Normally I’d begrudge these, but this one I’ll let pass.  Partly because it’s letting us relive an abridged version of Jesse’s move to get out Cody, which is always fun, and partly because it at least ATTEMPTS to give us some context as to how Jesse got Cody to give him the idol back.  Granted, by the show’s logic, it comes down to “I was close with Cody” from Jesse’s point, but it’s something.  Yes, I’m aware that exit interviews make it clear that Jesse concocted a rumor of a third “Knowledge is Power”, which makes a lot more sense.  As I have said before, and will say again, though, I should not have to consult supplemental materials to understand what his happening on the show.  

Remember back in the old days?  When Probst would have to justify at the top of the episode why anyone left could win?  And how cringe that was for the people without an obvious narrative?  Yeah, they kind of bring that back here, and it REALLY doesn’t work.  Granted, it works better than the other times, since this is the PLAYERS making their case, and thus they come across more genuine.  But still, we know some of these people have realistically no chance.  I get that it’s the editor’s job to try and hide it, but sometimes there’s just nothing you can do.  

Still, at least most players have a realistic view of where they are.  Owen admits he’s an underdog.  Gabler talks about laying low until the time is right.  Jesse comments on his big move making his game a visible, winning one, but also making him a threat.  Karla comments on how she’s in trouble and a threat, but acknowledges her determination.  Cassidy talks about always being the alternate, yet usually turning the target around to get votes on her side.  If I were to nitpick, the only real flub is Cassidy saying she has a perfect voting record, when she voted for Ryan at the Jeanine boot, but even that’s splitting hairs.  With the number of split votes these days, I don’t think a “perfect voting record” matters quite as much as the fanbase seems to think it does.  

You may recall that, like with the past two seasons, our final five have to go to a new campsite.  This honestly brings nothing new to the table, and needs to just be dropped, but Gabler will be damned if he doesn’t shill for it.  He goes on at length about how tough it is, and how he needs to find gas in the tank to go forward.  Again, he’s doing his job, but just not buying it.  The only thing of value this new camp brought is a cool-looking Tree Mail.  

Said Tree Mail brings news of, you guessed it, a word scramble to find a clue to the location of an advantage.  Because it’s not like we’ve seen THAT before in the past two seasons.  Everyone wants to make sure Karla doesn’t get it, so naturally, Karla is the first to finish her word scramble.  Her ankle hobbles her, though, and Owen is right on her tail.  this honestly may be the most pathetic performance we’ve seen out of this challenge yet, as these are the only two to finish the word scramble.  That said, Owen misses the “knot” part of the clue indicating a dead tree, though even then, it’s a close race.  Both get to the tree at roughly the same time, Owen maybe even slightly ahead, but Karla searches the correct part of the tree first, finding that she has an advantage at the next challenge.  

Owen takes this well.  And by that I mean he shows that he might benefit from some anger management classes.  Ok, ok, I exaggerate.  He takes it fine, but his anger is still clearly visible.  He chops at a coconut like he’s Rupert on “Survivor Pearl Islands”, and the coconut is Jonny Fairplay’s head.  

Our challenge itself is your standard “Obstacle Course Leading to Word Puzzle”, literally nothing worth writing about more than this sentence.  Karla’s advantage is that she gets to skip carrying some of her puzzle pieces over a balance beam, one of the legs of the challenge.  A pretty decent advantage, were the puzzle easier.  As it stands, it mostly just gives Karla some wiggle room, given that this is a very physical challenge, and as she notes, she’s a bit beaten up by this game.  That said, Probst tells her it’s in “How she uses it.”  Um, Probst?  It’s not like Karla has any choice or agency in this advantage.  She gets an edge, but the challenge still comes down to skill.  She doesn’t have a way TO use the advantage, other than the one you provide.  

Still, despite these injuries, Karla performs admirably, advantage or not.  Yes, everyone makes it to the puzzle, but she’s right there with Owen, the most physically fit player left, the entire time, and the challenge is presented as another word battle between the pair of them.  Fittingly, given his earlier frustration, Owen manages to eke out a victory this time.  He also gets a trip to have some good food, choosing to take Cassidy along with him.  Not a bad choice if you want to strategize, though given that you can bet Karla and Cassidy would not talk strategy if left alone together, I would say Gabler might have been a slightly wiser choice.  

It seems Owen wanted to talk strategy with Cassidy in particular, and they engage in the great Jesse vs. Karla debate.  As Jesse noted earlier, the one downside to his Cody blindside last episode is that it made him a visible threat.  Something he needs to be able to argue for a win in the end, but also something that makes people not want to take him to the end.  Karla may be the more long-term threat in terms of her game having been recognized, but Jesse is the rising star, and Owen wants him gone.  Cassidy still has a chip on her shoulder with Karla, though her main argument for why is that with Karla gone, she, Cassidy, retroactively gets credit for moves the pair of them made earlier.  Why this argument is persuasive to Owen, I can’t say, but Owen also has reason to be afraid of Karla, and so they agree to leave Jesse for the next vote.  

That said, part of their justification is that Jesse is easier to beat in challenges than Karla, and the numbers do bear that out.  I just find it hilarious that Jesse’s challenge performance is so pathetic that the woman with MULTIPLE INJURIES is considered more threatening in physical competition than he is.  

Back at camp, our remaining three are also discussing their possibilities.  Karla is pitching hard for a Cassidy boot because, really, what else can she do at this point?  Owen’s immune, and it’s not like going for Jesse or Gabler will be easy with one of them always around.  Jesse at least entertains the idea, since it might help keep the target off his back for another round.  Plus, if Karla is a challenge threat, then the healthier Cassidy is as well.  Gabler is less convinced, wanting to take out a big threat.  

Gabler may have his chance, though, as Karla is really doing this to get out Jesse.  Sort of the same play Cody tried on her as well.  Once everyone else is back, Karla pitches this plan, which Gabler is somewhat more on board with than a Cassidy boot.  Really, Karla does an overall good job here.  She makes a logical argument, hypes up Jesse’s threat level to be above her own.  For all her bad acting, she has a really good pitch.  Owen and Gabler seem to at least be considering it.  Only Cassidy is not swayed, mostly due to the beef the two have had over the past couple episodes, but even then, I think she goes a bit far in saying Karla handled things poorly.  Yeah, Karla kind of threw everything at the wall when talking to Cassidy, hoping for something to stick.  Cassidy says as much herself.  But when you’re target number one, hey, what have you got to lose?  It may seem like I’m damning Karla with faint praise, but even if it was 11 years ago, I still remember “Survivor Redemption Island”, and the frustration of people sitting around, not calling out the obvious.  I will take blunt yet sensible play any day.  

The editors are doing their best to misdirect us, but the overall point is moot.  We, the audience, know Jesse has Jeanine’s idol, and so there’s no way he goes.  Really, Jesse has the power tonight, so the best we can hope for is that he considers voting out Cassidy.  That he does, but it still doesn’t come across as plausible.  Kudos to the editors for trying their best.  I’d say they made this vote about as tense as it could possibly be.  Sometimes, though, there’s just nothing you can do.  

A Live Tribal is a good attempt, though.  After Karla does the sensible thing and hype up Jesse’s threat level some more, Jesse decides to put any doubt about his safety to rest.  He had talked earlier about wanting to use the idol to put him in the best possible position, and that he does by pulling it early to create chaos.  This, naturally, gets a huge reaction from the jury, with Jeanine in particular giving a “shocked” face to rival that of Eliza Orlins (“Survivor Vanuatu”).  But, with a possible big target gone, everyone starts getting up in twos and threes to talk about new targets.  Jesse is willing to go Cassidy, but will need Gabler on board.  We don’t here his reaction, and we go to vote.  

Jesse sensibly plays his idol on himself, leading to an anticlimactic 4-1 boot for Karla.  Yeah, like I said, I can’t blame the editors too much on this one.  They worked with what they had, but it was painfully obvious Karla was going.  Sad, too.  In case it wasn’t obvious from this blog as a whole doing little else but praising Karla this season, you can tell this was going to be a sad one.  Messy, if understandable, plays in the last few episodes definitely make this vote-out EARNED, but I loved her spunk and determination.  She was the type of person you don’t see as often on the show, and it was great to have her.  Karla for Second Chances, y’all!

With no drama from the vote, we cut straight to Final Immunity.  This is the “Maneuver Pots through a Wire Frame, Then Stack Them” challenge first seen on “Survivor One World”, with this iteration less a time trial, and more a “First to 15 Pots Wins”.  Not a bad challenge, and at least one we haven’t seen in a while.  Still, I’m a traditionalist.  Give me pure endurance any day.  

High winds are a major factor here, making stability in your pot tower paramount.  Jesse is naturally out of the running, because this is, well, a challenge, but the other three are all pretty even.  Gabler is actually ahead for a good chunk, but lacks a solid foundation.  In the end, Owen loses his stack, and Cassidy wins, only to have her stack fall seconds after the challenge was called.  Good for her.  

With his threat level so high, it’s public knowledge that Jesse will be going to fire making.  The show TRIES to fake us out by having Jesse play to Cassidy, saying she needs to beat him in fire to have a shot, when really he just wants to go up against the worst fire-maker out there.  So transparent is this play that Cassidy doesn’t even pretend to buy it.  

So open is the knowledge that Jesse will go that both Owen and Gabler advocate for the opportunity to best Jesse, each believing that they are the superior fire-maker, and each wanting to bolster their resume as having “Taken Out” the biggest threat of the season.  Here is an ACTUAL debate for Cassidy, but on the whole, I would say sending Gabler is the better move.  Yeah, yeah, I know what we’re going to see soon, but these were my thoughts at the time.  Gabler’s game resume might be stronger, and thus gaining more clout from besting Jesse more of a threat, but there’s no indication the jury gives Gabler any credit for his moves.  His most visible moves are messy ones, and the jury also clearly likes Owen.  They were certainly happy he, of all people, won the immunity before this.  Thus, Gabler seems to have the weakest case in the eyes of the jury, and thus better to send him.  

After another nothingburger of a Tribal Council, Cassidy does the smart thing, and sends Gabler to fire against Jesse.  We have a really intense competition.  Becky vs. Sundra on “Survivor Cook Islands” this is not.  Both start fire quickly, but Gabler has clearly had more overall practice than Jesse.  Thus, Gabler beats the previous record for winning the challenge (previously held by Chris Underwood on “Survivor Edge of Extinction”) by about a minute.  Impressive.  

Yes, Jesse.  The seeming frontrunner of the season.  Out against people who were at best under edited, and at worst made to look foolish at every opportunity.  And people say the ending of this season is unsatisfying why?

In case it wasn’t clear, I am VERY sorry to see Jesse go, and schmaltzy as it may be, I would say it’s deserved.  Do we need to KEEP hearing about Jesse’s backstory?  Probably not.  Doesn’t change how much the dude has overcome, both in life and the game, and the crazy moves he made, particularly towards the end of the game.  Yes, a Jesse win would have been predictable, but it would have felt earned, which would be a big plus.  Like Karla, I look forward to seeing Jesse on another Second Chance season.  

Our final day breakfast is thankfully overlayed by one thing I’m very happy returned from last season: The Jury Speaks.  Yes, rather than just hear the finalists talk about what they plan to do (which is basically all of them reiterating their talking points from the top of the episode, though again they show good self-knowledge here), we hear from the jury what THEY want to hear from each player.  It’s pretty much what you’d expect.  Owen needs to articulate how he survived despite being the underdog, Gabler needs to own his age and his “playing the middle game”, and Cassidy needs to articulate specifically how she got the target off her in several instances.  

Predictably, we still have the new jury format first introduced on “Survivor Game Changers”.  Equally predictably, I still hate it.  Probst is less insistent on the “game categories” thing, merely mentioning them rather than directing the conversation about what they should be considering, but it’s still too much production interference at the end, and the lack of individual moments make everything less memorable.  

One’s Final Tribal performance may not be enough to sway votes your way, but can certainly lose them.  Such is the case for Owen, who going in seemed to have at least Noelle on his side.  However, he spends most of his time emphasizing how he was on the back foot, and never really had any agency in his game.  Granted, he shouldn’t IGNORE this, lest the jury believe he has no self-awareness, but no need to overemphasize it.  Plus, Owen needed to talk about what he did to SAVE himself as the underdog, not just talk about his general underdog-ness.  

More even are the performances of Cassidy and Gabler.  Gabler is the more engaging of the two, making the jokes and getting the jury to laugh.  He even breaks out the “Alli-Gabler” line once again.  But Cassidy, I feel, articulates her game better.  Gabler does ok, acknowledging that he played the middle, but badly flubs a question about who his tight alliance was with.  Rather than admit he played the middle, or say Owen or someone, Gabler says he was tight with people on the jury, a blatant lie evidence by the fact that Gabler helped put those people on the jury.  Cassidy has her own gaffe, since the jury doesn’t feel she deserves credit for eliminating Ryan, which she feels she does.  Plus, Cassidy managed to point out that she was the last woman standing on a season that favored voting out women early, without sounding too judgmental, which is a tricky task.  She does it well, though.  

Sure enough, we see no Owen votes, meaning he gets shut out.  And given those Final Tribal Council performances, the votes is 8-1… For Gabler…

Ok, we need to talk about this ending, because this is a problem.  First off, kudos to Gabler, though.  He is, as he notes, the second-oldest winner ever, which is no small feat, and should be celebrated.  And as I mentioned last blog, it’s not like Gabler has NO resume to stand on.  That said, the problem is that what was emphasized on his end was messy gameplay, particularly at the first Tribal Council and the merge vote.  His gameplay, while not spectacular or flashy from then on, was solid.  But, in the eyes of the audience, Gabler is kind of a joke  A wild and crazy player.  Someone who is fun to watch, but not to be taken seriously.  As a consequence, it’s hard to take a win from him seriously, especially when the likes of Karla and Jesse are still around in the last episode.  Even Cassidy, under edited as she was, seemed to have more game sense, and therefore make more sense as a winner.  

Now, to be fair to the editors, there’s little they could do about this.  Those gaffes, while making Gabler look bad, are plot-crucial to their episodes, with no easy way to edit them out.  Fair enough.  But then you need to compensate for that.  When asked, the jury said Gabler was charming and articulate, which led to most of them voting for him.  And if so, great!  Makes perfect sense!  But we didn’t SEE that Gabler!  We saw the wild and crazy Gabler, with the only hints to anything more being his vague talk about “Hiding in Plain Sight”.  Again, nice editing trick, but only hints that Gabler WILL win, not WHY.  

I will not deny that this definitely drags the season down, but I wouldn’t quite call it a season-ruiner.  Gabler was at least likable (political views outside the game aside), and this season was not spectacular to begin with.  While confusing, there’s nothing here that’s PAINFUL to watch, so that keeps it out of the very bottom for me.  Still, a lack of big, memorable characters and moments overall (the Cody blindside notwithstanding) mean this season won’t stand out, and a seemingly random winner does it few favors.  It’s a problem of modern “Survivor”… But I’ll talk about that more in an upcoming off-season blog.  

Speaking of blandness, the “reunion”.  Look, I enjoy the show being a bit positive.  I don’t need drama every minute, or over-the-top villains.  But when the ENTIRE reunion show is just about empowerment, it gets old.  Yeah, ok, Gabler giving the money to a charity for veterans is nice.  But did we need Jesse’s backstory again?  Talking about how Noelle and Karla overcame their injuries to compete well?  It’s just too much, and makes me miss the old reunions, awkward audience interviews and all.  

Speaking of which, let’s briefly touch on the preview for next season.  Sort of a hybrid of the preview for this season and older ones.  We once again mostly focus on the new players talking, getting something of a feel for the cast, but in a REALLY old throwback, Probst talks about the harshness of the elements once again.  We see why momentarily, as we get Probst calling in medical at a challenge, implying an early medevac.  Kind of similar to the preview of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, which on the one hand was not a good preview.  On the other hand, “Survivor Kaoh Rong” turned out pretty good in the end, so I’ll hold out hope that “Survivor 44” can be good too.  It’s certainly got a low bar to clear from its immediate predecessor.  

One thing I will say I am loving about “Survivor 44” already is the aesthetic.  They’re going medieval on our ass, which, admittedly, makes almost no sense for a show set in Fiji.  Then again, after three seasons in a row that aesthetically blend together, I will take something that is distinctive if out of place.  I think my two favorites are the dragon snuffer (badass), and the giant spike ball crashing through the logo, which is just my type of over-the-top.  

Now, on to the Idol Speculation tradition of looking back on my cast assessment for this season, and seeing how wrong I was!

Nneka: Overall wrong, though that’ll happen with a LOT of Vesi.  I was really too high on their challenge performance.  I DID say she’d be in trouble if she cost them a challenge, so I had SOMETHING of a decent read on Nneka, but at the end of the day, still overall wrong.  

Noelle: Actually right.  Unremarkable yet threatening player taken out in the mid-merge area.  I’ll take that victory.  

Owen: Wrong.  Had less agency than I thought, but also lasted longer as well.  

Justine: Wrong, though again, that was mostly predicated on the assumption that Vesi would be the dominant tribe of the season.  

Cody: Wrong.  Smarter than I gave him credit for, as well as more entertaining.  Consequently, he lasted longer than I predicted.  

Morriah: She wasn’t my first boot pick, but I did have her pegged as a pre-merger.  I’ll give myself at least partial credit here.  

Sami: Wrong.  Much better at the game than anticipated, and lasted slightly longer than I predicted.  

Karla: Pretty much right, since her tribe didn’t lose as much as I thought they might.  

Ryan: Out earlier than I expected, though I nailed his personality.  

Lindsay: I’ll give myself this one, even if she wasn’t the first boot of the season.  She still went at the first available opportunity, so even if I didn’t read her tribe correctly, I did read her correctly.  

Jeanine: Wrong.  Better (slightly) at the game than I anticipated, and lasted slightly longer too.  

Jesse: So close to being right!  Dude just made himself too big of a threat to give me three correct winner picks in a row.  

Cassidy: Wrong.  By no means annoying, and had a lot more game than I anticipated.  

James: Another one where there’s not much to say, since I just about nailed him.  

Geo: Wrong.  Too much of a challenge sink to make the merge like I thought he would.

Elie: Again I lament: Why must psychologists on this show not named Denise Stapely suck at the game?  Another one I was wrong on.  

Dwight: Wrong.  Worse at the game than I thought, and consequently did not make it deep.  

Mike: Wrong.  No way would I have called this dude winning that early.  

And there you have it.  Weird as this season may be, I hope you have enjoyed my recaps.  Be on the lookout for the rare short off-season content before we discuss the cast of “Survivor 44”.  I’ve got some ideas cooking I think you’ll all enjoy reading/debating.  

As a final note before we go, you may have noticed the liberal sprinkling of “Ancient Voices”, the old theme song for the show, throughout the season.  This finale in particular made liberal use of them.  As an avowed fan of the theme, you may think this makes me happy.  It does not.  Don’t just tease us.  Bring back the full theme, you CBS cowards!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 41” Finale: Predictably Predictable

Say what you will about this season of “Survivor”.  For all its ups and downs, for all the experiments it never took its eye off the fact that it needed to tell a story.  Particularly in the latter half of the season, the story took precedence, rather than the experimentation, and for that I am grateful.  If nothing else, it made the finale a fun watch.  Bear in mind, though, that a good story is not necessarily an unpredictable story, as this finale, for all of its strong points, may be one of the most predictable ones in recent memory.  

But before I can tell you THAT story, I have to tell you THIS story!  Yes, it wouldn’t be a finale blog without one final edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Pretty brief one this time, but a mess-up nonetheless.  You see, last episode I neglected to mention Deshawn living out one of my dreams, which is to snark back at a Probst catchphrase.  Specifically, when Probst offers the “Candy or Chicken” reward, he asks, as per usual, “Worth playing for?”  Deshawn says “No”, and says he wants family letters instead.  I know he got made fun of for this, but I’d say it was pretty understandable and sympathetic.  Granted, I’ve always wanted to snark more at “Wanna know what you’re playing for?” and “Once again, immunity, back up for grabs”, but that’s just me.  

We start off the true finale with Probst once again talking directly to the audience, though for once, I’m actually ok with it.  It feels like a substitute for the old “season recap with Probst narration”, and therefore more appropriate.  We also replace the “Reason why everyone will win” bit with the contestants building themselves up, which is more natural and does a better job of hiding the true contenders than the former option.  Even the clips of the season being projected on flotsam I can get behind, as it’s just the kind of hokiness I expect from “Survivor”.  I do get a little nervous when Probst talks about “One new twist”, but it turns out he’s just referring to reading the votes and doing a “season recap” on the island instead of live.  Unfortunately, but a necessity due to COVID restrictions, so it’s all good.  

That said, I do have to question the wisdom of removing the recap ENTIRELY.  True, it takes up a lot of time, but for people just tuning in for the finale… Oh, who am I kidding.  No one does that anymore.  No one channel surfs anymore.  Streaming media has not only taken away my best argument for why “Survivor” should leave Fiji once in a while, but now it’s also taken away the need for recaps at the top of episodes.  

Getting back from Tribal, Deshawn is of course in hot water over his “truth bomb”.  In an effort to show what he’s learned, he DOES act humble about the whole thing and admit it wasn’t very good, but the damage is done.  Though the pair make nice the next morning, neither trusts the other.  Contrast with the relationship between Erika and Ricard, which has only strengthened, and Ricard is going to make sure it stays that way.  Recognizing that he’s the biggest threat, Ricard wants to keep someone else on everyone’s mind, and with Deshawn blowing up his game last episode, he is that someone.  Ricard does this, but awkwardly using Deshawn’s proper name as often as possible.  Look, the PRINCIPLE for Ricard is sound, but man is it awkward to see him put it into practice.  

Sadly, my hope for no more advantages, especially in the finale, is dashed, as one final note is given to the contestants.  They must unscramble letters into words, then those words into a sentence, before going off to find said advantage, with the first one to do so getting it.  It’s a decent puzzle, and nice that they put it on screen for everyone at home to play along… IS WHAT I WOULD BE SAYING IF THEY LEFT IT UP THERE FOR MORE THAN 5 SECONDS AT A TIME/  REALLY, WHAT WAS THE POINT?  I will credit it, though, that it did tie into the “Game within the game” aspect.  If you didn’t play along on the website, basically every puzzle you solved, in addition to a question about the next episode, gave you a few letters, which would unscramble to a phrase.  The phrase in this episode, in fact, which is a nice touch.  

Once decoded, the phrase says the advantage is in “dancing trees”.  Erika is the last to solve the phrase, but it matters not, as she finds her advantage in a tree that frankly looks like several other trees out there.  Distinctive in its own way, I guess, but there were trees in the background that looked more like they were “dancing” to me.  Erika’s advantage for once comes with no downside, and is just a challenge advantage at the next immunity challenge.  As it’s not the final challenge, I’m ok with this.  Good for Erika!  

Speaking of said challenge, there’s sadly not much to speak about.  Your usual obstacle course with two puzzle ladders, and a 70+ piece logo puzzle at the end.  Bog standard fare, but it does come with the Joe Del Campo (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”) Memorial Reward of kebabs for two.  Erika’s advantage also turns out to be a bit OP, since half of her ladders are solved already.  This gives her a major lead into the puzzle, one she’s able to keep throughout the challenge.  Yeah, there’s no competition.  In a rare editing misstep, Probst tells us Ricard is close behind, but when we see Ricard, Erika’s puzzle (next to his) is clearly more complete than we just saw at a second ago.  Manipulative editing, folks.  

So Erika’s immune, breaking this season’s streak of those in danger winning immunity.  This spells doom for Ricard, though oddly he doesn’t seem to think so.  When Erika talks to him about how tough the decision is, Ricard starts off saying how it looks like it should be a no-brainer, which sounds like he’s going to show good self-knowledge about his threat level… And then he talks about how Erika hates Deshawn and should vote him out.  Way to go, Ricard.  

Erika does talk about the conflict of her heart, which wants to vote out Deshawn, and her head, which says Ricard must go.  Erika sadly can’t sell it like Shan can, and this is a no-brainer.  Ricard NEEDS to go.  He is, far and away, the biggest jury threat left.  You CANNOT, under any circumstances, keep him in the game, and the show itself is only making a half-hearted attempt to say he might stay.  We need something else to make Tribal more exciting.  

Enter Xander.  For all those saying I was too hard on Xander, and not giving him credit where his credit was due… Well, you’re probably right overall, but this episode does its best to vindicate me in my feelings.  Xander tanks HARD this episode, and while he actually DOES avoid doing a dumb here, he teeters dangerously close.  This being the last night his idol can be played, Xander wants to play his idol, and wants it to matter.  Sadly, he does not have the brains of goddess Angelina of “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, and rather than come up with a convoluted way for him to play his idol correctly, he just wants to play it on Ricard.  Which yes, would be playing an idol correctly, but this is somewhat offset by the fact that YOU KEPT THE BIGGEST JURY THREAT AROUND!  A CORRECT IDOL PLAY DOESN’T MATTER IF THE OUTCOME HURTS YOU IN THE LONG RUN!

But really, this is a feeble attempt at misdirection.  Even I, on my most anti-Xander day, would not accuse him of being that dumb.  Tribal Council doesn’t even try to hide it, with the whole thing just being a Ricard love-fest.  Ricard goes over his life status, and it pulls at the heartstrings, not going to lie.  Ricard even goes full Jeremy Collins on “Survivor Cambodia” in an attempt to stay, talking about how he and his husband are having a second child soon.  Everyone is emotional, but are ultimately ruled by their heads.  

Yes, if the emotional buildup didn’t clue you in, Ricard is gone.  Xander does play his idol, but wisely pays it for himself, just to be safe.  I am, of course, sorry to see Ricard go, as he was one of my favorites the entire season, but for there to be any tension at Final Tribal, he needed to go.  At least he’s a good sport of the way out.  

Back at camp, Xander continues his hot streak of bad ideas, talking about how a little drizzle doesn’t matter to them, even without a shelter on their new beach.  Xander evidently never watched cartoons, as a downpour now commences, and everyone runs for the cover of trees.  Trust me, compared to what we’re going to see later on, this is hardly Xander’s worst mistake.  

First, though, we have to get a GOOD bit of Xander content up in here.  Yes, out of everyone left, Xander is the only one not to yet get some sort of inspirational moment/flashback, and this must be corrected.  Him talking about proving to himself what he could do, coupled with photos of young Xander becoming more athletic, is nice, but it’s too little, too late.  I was willing to spot Danny his moment a few episodes ago, but your in the finale  Too late to do your work now.  

Plus, it kills any chance of anyone but Xander winning final immunity, and deciding who goes to Final Four firemaking, which is regrettably still around.  Also regrettable, our immunity challenge, where players have to spell “Final 3” in blocks while walking on effectively a large bow, and needing to keep everything balanced.  Not because the challenge is bad in and of itself, but because it comes from “Survivor Edge of Extinction”.  If you’re somehow new to the blog, suffice to say that in my opinion, every aspect of that season, save for Rick Devans and Big Wendy, should be expunged from the history of the show.  

Sure enough, Xander wins, and though he makes an effort to talk to everyone left regarding his decision, he doesn’t make a big secret about what he wants to do.  Deciding that he can’t give Erika the “victory” of winning the firemaking challenge (another point against “Survivor Edge of Extinction”: That becoming the meta), Xander is going to send Heather and Deshawn against each other, foreshadowed earlier by Deshawn talking about not wanting to do it.  Of the pair, Heather is set up as the better fire maker, thereby all but ensuring her defeat.  

Honestly, her best chance is Xander doing a dumb, and when Xander sees Erika having trouble starting fire (which I have to assume, given what we’ve seen of her fire-making abilities, was her trying to lower her threat level in that area), he gets just such an idea.  Because we haven’t drawn ENOUGH from “Survivor Edge of Extinction” lately, Xander contemplates giving up immunity to beat Erika in firemaking.  Going full Chris Underwood up in here.  And look, taking out a threat is a big move you can hang your hat on at the end.  Plus, it gives you publicity at arguably the most crucial time.  But the fact remains that you have to give up safety in the game to do so, and YOU SHOULD NEVER GIVE UP SAFETY IN THE GAME OF “SURVIVOR”!  The real thing to remember here, though, is that Xander is acknowledging in this scene that Erika is his biggest competition, a fact that Heather emphasizes. So it makes sense that Xander doesn’t want to give her glory, but guaranteeing her an end spot feels little better.  I can see the logic of Xander wanting to go full Underwood, but it’s flawed.  

Thankfully, even Xander wouldn’t do that.  No, he does something arguably even dumber.  You see, he sticks with his original plan to take Erika to the end with a free pass, and force Heather and Deshawn to fire making.  The flaw?  To lower Erika’s threat, he talks about how he doesn’t think her game is that threatening.  No evidence, no logic, just his opinion.  The flaw here is that the jury clearly is not buying this, and as a result, Xander appears to be either A) Out of Touch, or B) Blatantly Trying to Spin a Lie.  In either case, he’s failing miserably, and tanking his own chances as a result.  

Is there any upside to this Tribal Council?  Yes there is!  We get the awesome music from “Survivor Island of the Idols” back once again!  Hooray!

Credit where it is due, while I still despite forced fire making at Final Four, this is one of the more exciting duels.  It’s not funny, like the super-long one in “Survivor Cook Island”, nor emotional like Aubry vs. Cydney in “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, but it is an actual nail-biter of a challenge.  Heather has the early lead, but while her fire burns a bit of the rope, it doesn’t go through, giving Deshawn just enough time to win by three seconds.  Good for him!  Heather, while nice as a person is probably the least interesting person left, and the biggest finale goat, so better to have her out of the way for our finalists.  

This is all evidenced by our finalists all having good “Why I should win” summaries during the final day montage.  Xander talks about finding his advantages and using them effectively, Erika talks about building up her game from the background to the foreground, and Deshawn… Gives us the “I’ve grown so much” narrative.  Ok, Deshawn’s is a bit weaker, but he was hardly a load in this game, and has something he can at least argue.  

This point is emphasized all the more when Evvie, truly the best jury foreperson, says that everyone there has a shot at some votes, and it’s a tough choice.  And I will say, while I still prefer the old jury format, this is probably the best iteration of the new one yet.  I think it’s the fact that it’s just the jury talking, and Probst doesn’t interject into the proceedings.  It feels more pure, though again, I still prefer the questions, if only for the hilarious ones we get sometimes.  Danny TRIES to go there with his sports “Divide the game into quarters” analogy, which really doesn’t work.  

Sadly, Evvie’s pronouncement does not seem too founded, as the jury clearly favors Erika.  They RIP into Deshawn when he talks up his “social game” and direct most of their specific questions at the other two.  Xander they seem to at least give a chance to persuade them, and a few seem to be in his corner.  Tiffany and Liana seem to ask questions trying to get Xander to talk about his moves in the game, seemingly to give him a chance to prove himself to the jury.  

Here, however, Xander once again falls flat.  When asked to talk about his social game, he says “Um” about a half-dozen times before coming up with a half-baked answer that seems to satisfy pretty much no one on the jury.  Going into this, I had Xander as my number two for win potential.  Had I known that he had the Final Tribal Council skills of Amanda Kimmel (“Survivor China”), I would, of course, have had him lower.  

Unsurprisingly, Erika wins, but we get a definitive second place in Deshawn, who somehow snagged one vote despite largely being shut out of the proceedings.  Presumably Danny voted for him, but I can’t be sure.  In any case, everyone is shocked that the vote is read live, and is then followed immediately by what is effectively our reunion show.  Lights are brought up on the Tribal Council set, and the contestants are given champagne and pizza, the latter of which they must compliment, presumably on threat of losing their prize money.  I imagine the dream team just of camera, checks in one hand, lighters in the other.  

Not much to talk about at our Reunion.  The setting is cool.  They talk with most everyone.  The absence of the pre-jury is felt, though I can understand why they’re not allowed to be there.  Naseer talks about learning English from “Survivor” for the umpteenth time.  We get a lot of emotional beats from the likes of Ricard and Danny.  Plus, there’s no awkward audience participation.  Good stuff.  Loses points, though, for playing “Ancient Voices” during it, which serves only to remind us what we could have been having.  Bring back the intro, CBS!

Season 42 looks fun, though they’re clearly borrowing a lot from this season.  Understandable, but as I’ll get to later, a concern.  First, time for the old “Idol Speculation” staple: Looking back at my pre-season cast assessment and seeing just how off my predictions were!

Sydney-Wrong.  Took after Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) far more than I thought, and rightfully lasted much shorter as a result.  

Danny-Wrong.  Much more flexible and savvier than I had predicted.  

Liana-Pretty much right.  Mid-merge boot, not super memorable.  The feud with Xander was fun, though.  

Brad-Not out QUITE as early as I predicted, but still pretty much right.  

JD-Wrong.  Turns out the dude is only good if he’s got a script to work off of.  

Evvie-Wrong.  They were much better at taking control than I gave them credit for.  

Ricard-Right overall.  He was a threat to win, though somewhat less charming on screen than I expected.  

Shan-Wrong.  Much less religious, and much more game-savvy than I had anticipated.  She lasted longer than I thought, obviously.

Naseer-Right about boot time, wrong about personality.  While he DID talk about overcoming adversity as much as I thought, the dude had the charm to pull it off without getting annoying, which I did not foresee.  

Genie-Sadly right.  

Xander-Wrong.  Despite what this last episode might indicate, the dude was much more game-savvy than I gave him credit for.  

Sara-Wrong, though in fairness, I couldn’t anticipate such a dumb challenge mistake, nor that she would pay the price for it.  

Voce-Wrong.  Much more socially palatable, though oddly much shorter-lived as well.  

Deshawn-Pretty much right, though like Ricard, less charming than I would have thought.  

Tiffany-Wrong, flat out.  

Eric-Wrong.  He just wasn’t made for a faster-paced season like this.  

Heather-Wrong, though had I known tribe makeup beforehand, I would have been closer.  Being on the super-winning all the time tribe will do that.  

Erika-RIGHT!  HAHA!  CHALK UP ANOTHER CORRECT PRE-SEASON PICK FOR “IDOL SPECULATION”, Y’ALL!  

In terms of this season as a whole, the best way I can sum it up is that it succeeds in spite of itself.  For once, I don’t mean it’s a good season with a bad theme (see “Survivor David vs. Goliath”), but rather, production seemed hell-bent on trying to make this season bad, adding twist after poorly-conceived twist after poorly-implemented twist.  While I don’t have data to back this up, but if you were to chart relative enjoyment of each episode by the fanbase with the number of twists and advantages added in a given episode, I suspect you would find an inverse correlation.  To put it another way, the more random shit they crammed into an episode, the less enjoyable the episode.  

Now, I’ve made my opinions on these twist clear, and I’ve made my opinions of the number of them in the season clear.  Equally, production has made their views on these issues clear.  Thus, if production by some miracle happens to be reading this blog, I’m not going to get into a debate with you about whether or how many or what advantages should be in the game.  Clearly you’ve made up your minds, and for the foreseeable future, they’re here to stay.  So, instead, let me make a point about all these advantages and your show, one that even production will have to concede has some validity:

You.  Do.  Not.  Have.  Time.  

Leave aside whether advantages are good for the game, the fact is you simply do not have enough time for all these advantages, and still have a good game.  That inverse correlation I speculated about?  Should it exist, I would hypothesize that it is due not necessarily to the quality of the twist themselves, but to all the time they take up.  Time to introduce the twist.  Time to explain the twist.  Time for someone to find/use the twist.  Other players talking about the twist.  It just eats up precious screen time the show does not have.  As Probst himself used to say, “Ultimately, it is a SOCIAL game”  The show lives and dies on the audience connecting with the cast, and for that, they need time to get to KNOW the cast.  Time you are taking away with all these idols and advantages.  

Now, to be fair, there are two solutions to this.  Reduce the number of advantages in the game, particularly new ones that require in-depth explanation, or have longer episodes.  I would be fine with either option, but let’s be real: While “Survivor” is a consistent show from a ratings perspective, and has gone up due to renewed exposure via online streaming/quarantine, the fact is it is not the ratings juggernaut the early seasons were, and it would need those kind of numbers to justify going to 90 minutes or 2 hours as the standard episode.  I’d enjoy that, but it’s just not realistic.  Realistically, the only solution is to reduce the number of advantages in the game, and while 42 is out the window already, I can hold out hope for 43 and beyond.  Also, NEVER do the “Do or Die” again.  I’ll spot you 42, but after that?  NEVER AGAIN!

So, if time is such a big problem, why does this season still succeed?  Because they had a stellar cast, who managed to shine in SPITE of their reduced time in which to do so  This was overall a very even edit (save for some outliers like Heather being invisible most of the game, and Erika, while she had an obvious winner edit in the second half, being invisible pre-merge), where everyone got at least a bit of content, and we felt like we got to know most of the people on this season.  Credit where it’s due, production did there part as well, as this connection was aided by the “flashbacks” to real life, which I still thoroughly enjoyed.  Still, this cast succeeded DESPITE the obstacles in their path, not because of them.  Consider what would have happened if this cast had been replaced with the cast from a season that’s not great, but not terrible.  You know, just kind of “average”.  Say, for instance, the cast of “Survivor San Juan del Sur” or “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers” had played on this season.  Wouldn’t have stood out nearly as much.  And this is the disaster you court, “Survivor”.  Unless you can have a home-run cast every season, you had best consider cutting back the number of advantages.  

In terms of overall ranking, this season definitely falls in the “good” category.  The twists drag it down, but the cast and some editing choices elevate it.  I would probably put it smack-dab in the middle of my rankings, just below “Survivor The Australian Outback”.  A solid, enjoyable season, but not quite good enough to be one of the all-time greats.  That ranking is nothing to sneeze at, though, and it’s been great getting back into “Survivor” with you all!  As usual we’ll be on hiatus until next season’s cast is announced, so I look forward to hearing from you all then! 

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Blood vs. Water

Come on in, guys!  There’s blood in the water, and that blood is fighting the water, which means it’s time for a new blog!  As my incredibly lame joke (and, you know, the title) indicated, today we’re going to make a change in “Survivor Blood vs. Water”.  Neither the most beloved season, nor a hated season, let’s see if we can change that perception with one simple change in the game.  And no, the change is not “No Redemption Island”.  Much as I would like it to be the case, it goes against my own guidelines to do so.  Therefore, this will be a different change.  

It also goes against my guidelines to not remind you all that this blog will contain SPOILERS.  As it’s difficult to discuss how a timeline changed without comparing it to how things actually went down, there will be spoilers for this season if you haven’t already seen it.  In addition, we discuss how this change impacts returnee seasons, and the show as a whole, after the season ends, so if you don’t want to possibly be spoiled on seasons that come after this one, read ahead only with caution.  Sufficiently warned?  Good!  Let’s begin.  

THE IMPACT

Ciera Eastin.  The woman who, as Probst is fond of reminding us, “Voted out her mom”.  A good player who unfortunately, in my opinion, gets less credit than she deserves, due to overhype.  That said, if you remember her for something other than voting out her own mom, you remember her for forcing the first rock in the history of the show since “Survivor Marquesas”.  A move that was necessary for her to make if she wanted to have any chance at winning, but too little, too late.  Poor timing is the greatest flaw of Ciera.  

But what if it wasn’t too late?  After all, Ciera was offered a chance to flip at the final seven, a time when the loved ones outnumbered the returning players.  No danger of a tie there.  We know that Ciera had the capacity to understand that she needed to flip to win, so let’s let her have that brainwave earlier.  What happens then?

Well, that kind of depends on who gets targeted.  Even in our timeline, Tyson plays his idol on himself, and I doubt he would miss the possibility of a Ciera flip.  That said, I do think this alliance of four is smart enough to realize this, and thus probably target Monica or Gervase instead.  Unless Tyson picks up on this plan (which is, admittedly, plausible, but let’s roll with this choice for now; give the new players the best chance of success), the alliance of four succeeds, and is now up 4-2 going into the final 6.  

THE FALLOUT

With the hidden immunity idol played, a new one gets hidden.  As in our timeline, Laura Morett probably wins, even with either Gervase or Monica there.  They’re good competition, but Laura was a beast, even up against other challenge threats.  As in our timeline, Laura shares the clue with Ciera, being her daughter and all.  The difference here is that Ciera DOESN’T share the clue with Tyson, since she’s no longer allied with him, thus likely preventing Tyson from finding the idol.  From there, it’s pretty much down straight alliance lines to the finale episode, since we know that one of the two will be vulnerable at the Final 6, and Ciera in our timeline won immunity at the Final 5, both will be vulnerable at least once and go.  My guess, since Monica was close to winning the Final 6 immunity in our timeline, is that Tyson goes at 6, and Monica at 5.  

The wrinkle for the new alliance is, of course, Redemption Island.  Despite Laura’s best efforts to get Tina to the end, Tyson’s too good a challenge competitor to not win his way back in.  Look at how he did on the Edge of Extinction on “Winners at War”.  Yes, Tyson had advantages bought with Fire Tokens there, but the dude still had game, and given that Redemption Island is going to be less harsh overall, I’m guessing our final challenge to return to the game comes down to Laura, Tyson, and Monica, with Tyson winning his way back into the game at this juncture.  

This win, unfortunately, seals the fate of the alliance of four.  Tyson in our timeline wins the last two immunity challenges, and I see no reason that he doesn’t do so in this one.  Thus, the alliance of four is forced to eat itself.  Ciera probably goes out in the exact same spot, since she was the swing vote, and therefore on the bottom, followed by Katie, as the last person left with a loved one on the jury.  Thus, Tyson makes the end again, but now with Caleb and Hayden instead of Gervase and Monica.  

Once again, not a controversial call here, but Tyson still wins, even up against Caleb and Hayden.  Yes, Tyson did make some people on the jury mad, and yes, his win is probably not as dominating as in our timeline (Aras and Vytas, at least, aren’t voting for him when there are viable alternatives who didn’t screw them over as badly).  That said, the people who would be mad at Tyson are also probably mad at Hayden and Caleb, since they were also part of that alliance that voted them out, and only flipped after they left.  It’s also worth mentioning that Tyson is charming, and had the chance to work that charm on several jury members while on Redemption Island.  So, while the journey is quite different, the outcome is ultimately quite similar.  

THE LEGACY

So, right now you’re probably thinking “Well, what was the point of that?  Nothing really changed!”  Au contraire, mon frere (or soeur, as your individual gender may apply).  While the outcome is unchanged, how it’s received is.  Rather than having played the dominant game that none could deny, Tyson’s win is now racked with controversy.  After all, if you want to get technical, he lost.  He was voted out.  Full stop.  The only reason he had a chance was because of Redemption Island, and then he was able to just immunity his way to the end.  Not exactly an impressive game.  It honestly becomes an early indication of how the win of Chris Underwood is received on “Survivor Edge of Extinction”.  It’s to a lesser degree, if for no other reason a lot of people like Tyson as a returnee, but it’s still there.  Plus, Tyson was in the game longer than Chris, so there’s overall going to be less controversy, but controversy nonetheless.  I’d LIKE to believe this makes the show think twice about doing the Edge of Extinction twist at all, but let’s face it, history has shown that Probst will run a bad idea into the ground, no matter how obviously bad it is.  On the plus side, this also probably lowers Tyson’s overall target on “Survivor Winners at War”, to the point where he probably doesn’t leave at all until the post-merge.  If so, Tony probably goes in his place pre-merge, Yul probably gets back in at the first return challenge, the whole season is topsy-turvy, and really deserves its own write-up once we’re further removed from that season.  

Due to this controversy surrounding Tyson’s win, a lot of the loved ones on this season get more scrutiny.  Well, except for Katie.  She’s very nice, but just doesn’t “pop” on tv like the others do.  Ciera is honestly even more beloved than she is in our timeline.  Ciera haters tend to point to her NOT flipping at final seven as a reason why she’s not that great at the game, but now there’s no excuse.  Ciera played well, made all the moves she needed to make, but was denied a win due to a combination of Redemption Island/Tyson winning challenges.  There’s a lot of hate around that, and I see a lot of “Justice for Ciera” posts springing up in the “Survivor” world.  Hayden is also in a similar situation, and I see there being a lot of debate between fans of Ciera and fans of Hayden over who deserves credit for the final seven vote, and who would have won between the two.  Caleb is in there as well, and probably has a greater share of the fandom than he has now, though the conversation around him is more subdued, partly because his game is less flashy than those two, and partly because of his tragic, untimely death, which unfortunately still happens even in this timeline.  

Ciera’s reputation being greater probably doesn’t change much about her appearances.  She’s still going on “Second Chances”, and will be all about the big moves there, leading to her paranoia in “Game Changers” and her early exit.  If production doesn’t decide they NEED Hayden in the “Second Chance” vote, we probably see him back in “Game Changers”, probably in the spot of JT or Zeke.  If they do decide to put him in the “Second Chance” vote, he undoubtedly makes it back in, probably in Woo’s spot if I had to guess, and replacing Brad Culpepper on the ballot overall.  Other than that, though, there’s not much that changes in terms of returnees from the season.  This late, a lot of the people who made an impact already did so, and there just aren’t that many opportunities after this season. 

Sadly, overall this change to the timeline makes the season worse.  While the new players get more deserved respect, the ending is just too controversial, and the season is looked down upon as a mess set up by production.  After all, we were going to get an exciting new winner, finally seeing the new players beat the veterans… Only to have that dashed by Redemption Island.  Controversy abounds, and Blood vs. Water is remembered as a good idea wasted by bad production decisions.  On the plus side, “San Juan del Sur” is now considered the superior implementation of the concept, so at least that season gets a boost.  

And that about covers the major changes that happen as a result of this change to the timeline.  That said, there’s still more to discuss out there, and I want your input on what to cover!  Feel free to list your ideas for changes to examine in the comments below, or wherever this blog is posted.  As always, there are some guidelines to making sure your idea gets considered, which are listed below:  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast rules, there are two what I call “Flexible Rules”.  As the name would imply, these rules can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are two things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

Apologies for the downer of a timeline.  I just go where logic takes me.  Hopefully, the next one will be happier!

-Matt

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Winners at War” Finale: Now We’re Playing “Stupid Survivor”

(This space reserved for the person who correctly guesses the person and season that originated the title quote of the previous blog).

So, this finale was supposed to be three hours, right? Three hours of content? Are you sure we got it? Because it sure doesn’t feel like we did. Despite being literally longer than any finale up to this point, it felt like one of the finales with the least substance left. Let us get through that substance now.

We start off, of course, at the challenge to return from the Edge of Extinction, aka yet another ropes course, aka Natalie gets back in the game. I mean, come on, the woman had three advantages, and had proven she was still a challenge beast this late in the game. There’s no way she was going to lose. Now, the show does its level best to make it look like she might. She gets turned around on maneuvering through the post obstacle, in the process giving a more effective demonstration than anything so far of how draining the Edge of Extinction can be. All she had to do was move forward, and somehow she still got turned around. Wendell, Yul, and Boston Rob all get in there with her, with even Tyson factoring in at one point, but Natalie eventually makes it through, and wins a tight race with Wendell to get back in the game. Well earned for her, but the outcome we all saw coming. There’s approximately 15 minutes down the drain, though admittedly the shot of Probst’s garage was pretty sweet.

And, of course, we have to say goodbye to those who must now go the jury. It’s fairly hard to make this not touching and emotional, and while I give production a lot of flak, they manage to do this part of the episode with grace and dignity. Of course, I’m a snarky internet blogger, so I must accentuated the negative. I could talk about the nice speeches given by the likes of Kim and Sophie, detailing how they’ve grown and what they’ve learned about themselves throughout this adventure. I could talk about how satisfying a bookend it is to end with Ethan, a man who has endured so much in his life, and the earliest winner represented on the show. All these things are marks in this segment’s favor. Instead, though, we’re going to focus on what Amber has to say. All season long, I’ve complained about Amber’s inclusion on the cast, both from a game perspective in terms of sinking both her and Boston Rob’s chances, and from a character perspective. But here, she has a chance to set herself apart, to distinguish herself from her husband, to prove that she’s just as much a player in this game as he is. Does she do this? NO! Instead, she talks about how she played to better Rob’s game, and everything was for him. I appreciate the honesty, and that level of devotion is certainly touching, but I have to say, once again WHY WAS AMBER HERE? We could have had Vecepia, an underrated winner who could have added new, interesting dynamics to the game, and instead we have someone who literally said they were playing for someone else to win. That just feels wrong, particularly on a season as “legendary” as this. And yes, the quotation marks are intentional. We’re going to talk about them much later.

For now, Natalie gets to tour the Koru camp, doubtless changed a fair bit since her last sojourn there in the first two days of the game. Natalie, of course, is in game mode, and sets about bettering her position as best she can. She says she’s going to have to “lie like crazy” in order to build a crack in the dominant foursome, but I’m not sure that she does. At most, she exaggerates. She very publicly tells the group that the people on the Edge perceive Tony as being the one giving the orders, and everyone else just follows orders. From what little we’ve been getting about how everyone’s thinking, that seems like the truth. It’s enough to rankle Tony, however, who kvetches about it to Sarah. As well he should, as he’s effectively being skewered to better Natalie’s chances in the game. Sarah is upset as well, but for a different reason. She rightly sees herself and Tony as partners. She even tots out Trish’s “Tony wouldn’t be here if it weren’t for me.” line from “Survivor Cagayan”. Yet, she’s now being told she’s seen as just a follower, and she not unfairly sees this as a bit of sexism. Remember this. It will be important later.

Ah yes, nothing like a three-hour episode to really dive into the dynamics of the tribe, and with a sixth member added who has barely played with any of these people left, we need to take our time and really examine… Nope, wait, we apparently need to get straight to the immunity challenge! Because that’s what “Survivor” is all about!

Our challenge is the classic ropes obstacle course ending in a puzzle, and an iteration I’m not a fan of. Half the fun of these challenges is watching people trip over each other trying to go through the same obstacle, yet here, with the six divided into two groups of three, there’s almost none of that. Plus, there’s the issue of the water slides, which so very rarely work on “Survivor” and this one is no exception. And, of course, it all comes down the puzzle, a repeat from the final immunity challenge of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”. Michele won that challenge, a fact that Probst calls out. Thus, even when Michele is notably far behind the others, she still has a chance to come back, Indeed she does, as it seems production did not even bother to change the number of the pieces in the challenge, and Michele is basically able to recreate the puzzle from memory. Impressive for her, and certainly nothing unfair about it, but I’m surprised production didn’t charge up the puzzle at least a little to prevent something like this happening.

Credit where it’s due: I was hoping Michele would repeat her kicking down of the puzzle upon winning, and she did so. For this, I am happy.

And now we come to my least favorite part of the episode, which should tell you something about the outcome. No, this is the segment I like to call “Make you favorite winners look like idiots!” You see, Tony, as he has been doing most of this game, plays things smart. He realizes that, given that Chris Underwood came back in with an advantage on “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, Natalie is likely to have one this time around. Hence, the foursome need to split the vote between Natalie and Denise (presumably telling Denise they’re all in on Natalie) to ensure that the person they want goes home. This is a perfectly logical line of reasoning. It is the obvious smart move. And yet Tony is the only one of the four who sees it! Ben, Sarah, Denise, all three of them are adamant that Natalie has nothing, and they should just get her out right now. Much as I like Ben, this is the sort of thinking I expect from him, especially when he admits it’s mostly a ploy to keep Denise around, since he’s trying to focus on his social bonds. Not a bad principle, but Ben, there’s a time to cut your losses, and when it involves burning an idol three days from the end of the game, that time is now. But Sarah and Denise? What are you thinking?! You two are not unintelligent! How can you possibly dismiss the possibility out of hand? Sarah is made out to look the worst of the lot, saying in confessional that she can read Natalie well, and knows she doesn’t have anything, only to cut to Natalie telling Michele about her idol, and the pair gloating about it. Tony tries to talk sense into this alliance, but they won’t have it, and he lets it go. Ironically the one time Tony needs to be forceful is the one time he’s diplomatic. Go figure. Look, we all know Tony is marching to victory at this point, but can you just make his game look good? You don’t need to make the other winners look like morons in the process!

Our first Tribal Council with a now cleaned-up jury is naturally largely focussed on Natalie. Talking about the drama she stirred up, the ethics of the Edge of Extinction, all that jazz that you’d expect. It’s Sarah who throws a curveball into the whole shebang, bringing up her sexism argument from earlier. In simple terms, she says that when a woman lies, cheats, and steals, she’s seen as a scumbag. When a man does the same thing, he’s seen as “playing the game”. A flagrant double-standard, and one that Sarah is absolutely right to point out, even asking to be called “Lacina” by Probst after the whole last-name basis thing comes up. I must say, this particular conversation fills me with a perverse glee. Why perverse? Well, if you’re a superfan of “Survivor” (and I assume you are, if you’re reading this blog after watching this particular season), then this argument might sound a bit familiar to you. Word for word, it’s almost the same argument that Kass McQuillen made about her game. You know, on “Survivor Cagayan”. The season that Sarah was on. And the season where Sarah openly insulted Kass, along with most of the rest of the cast. To see her, even in this minimal way, acknowledge that maybe Kass was right all along? It warms my cold, black, Kass-loving heart. Even Probst gets in on the action, acknowledging his own biases and evolution over the course of the show. Of course, I’d love it even more if he talked about taking actual steps towards addressing it, but it’s a start, and I’m not going to knock his speech too much. What can I say, it was a good speech!

With no split vote coming down, Tony gets the chance to say “I told you so.” to everyone in his alliance. We never got a firm target from Natalie or Michele, but they ultimately went for Ben, who wisely played his idol. Thus, only Denise and Sarah are options on a revote, with everyone besides them voting. With how much Michele and Natalie talked about the need to split Sarah and Tony up, you’d expect them to force a tie, or hope that Ben saves Denise over Sarah, but surprisingly, the revote is unanimous against Denise. It’s a little unclear now as to why, but the show does a good job of explaining their reasoning later, so I can’t blame them too much for this at the moment. As to Denise’s exit; while I can’t deny that her last few days mean she deserved it, and she loses “smart points” in my book for insisting that Natalie had no advantage, I am sorry to see Denise go. She was the last person left who seem to have any shot of winning (I like Michele a lot, but let’s be real, there’s not really a path to victory for her at this point) whom I actually fully liked as a person. The rest? I either don’t like their gameplay this season, or don’t really care for them on a personal level. Not that they’re bad people or anything, just not my cup of tea. Some people click, some people don’t. While I respect all of these people as winners, they just don’t “click” with me the was someone like Denise does. That said, her boot was well-earned, and Denise takes it with good grace, so we can move forward with a clean conscience.

Evidently saying “I told you so.” is not just for Tribal Council, as Tony goes on his rant to Ben and Sarah again at camp. It can’t last too long, though, as Tony has correctly deduced that there’s an idol present in camp, with so many played last night. Thus, he sets out to search in the dark of night, bringing fire in a conch with him to help look. There’s a “Lord of the Flies” joke in here, but I’m not sure what it is. In this case, though, Tony’s manic energy cannot overcome the crushing darkness, and by daybreak he’s still empty-handed. Everyone else joins in the search, culminating in Natalie finding another idol. But no, tell me more about how being on the Edge of Extinction is not an advantage in the game. I mean yeah, Natalie had tons of time to practice looking for and finding things hidden by production, but I’m sure that in NO WAY influences her idol finding abilities, and is DEFINITELY more important than playing the actual strategic game.

While Natalie does a good job of hiding her idol find from everyone outside of Michele for now, Ben and Tony’s idol radars go off, and are suspicious that something’s been found. For now that has to wait, though, as it’s once again time for an immunity challenge. To be fair to the ropes course, while it was lame in comparison to the ones before it, it at least had the epic scale and exciting finish one would hope for in the finale. This is another obstacle course, but it just feels lame. Basically a balance beam and net crawl, culminating in landing sandbags on a disc. Riveting. At least the music keeps us epically guessing, with Tony and Ben dueling it out. Tony narrowly wins, and we head back to camp. It’s here we see why Natalie and Michele voted out Denise, rather than forcing a tie: While they want Tony and Sarah broken up, they think they can work with Sarah. Don’t see why they couldn’t do the same with Denise, and guarantee a breakup of the tightest twosome there, but perhaps Natalie was still bitter about the whole “voted out first” thing, and didn’t trust Denise anymore. In any case, Tony decides to use this to his advantage, asking Sarah to lure Natalie to the area of the “Spy Nest” and get her talking about a potential hidden immunity idol. Sarah does, and Natalie is initially cagey about things, but when called out on the lump in her buff, shows it to Sarah. Evidently it’s Natalie’s turn to hold the “stupid ball”, for keeping the idol on her person in a game with someone KNOWN TO HIDE IN THE BUSHES AND WATCH YOU! DID YOU PEOPLE JUST NOT WATCH CAGAYAN OR SOMETHING? Michele calls her out on this, and feels her own death warrant has been signed. Sure enough, when Sarah spills the beans to Tony, they agree that Natalie is most likely to play the idol on herself, and thus they must vote for Michele. A logical plan, given how preservation-oriented Natalie is. What could possibly screw it up now?

Why, Ben throwing himself on his sword, of course! He talks to Sarah about her speech at the past Tribal Council, and notes that if she wants to vote him off to separate herself from Tony, it’s ok to do so. It’s a sweet and touching moment, fitting in with this season’s strength in emotions, but weird on a season with “legendary” play. I’m expecting all-out, hard core strategic play from each and every person on this season if you call it “legendary”. What we’re getting isn’t bad, but it’s not what I expected. This does give Sarah a dilemma, though. While I agree with her assessment that she needs to do something to separate herself from Tony, voting out Ben isn’t it. Ben is someone she guaranteed beats at the end. She definitely doesn’t beat Tony, and while I think she can beat either Natalie or Michele, it’s an uphill battle. By no means guaranteed. Better to keep your odds good there.

At our Tribal Council, which pales in comparison to the first one with zero memorable moments up until the torch snuff, we see that Sarah makes the dumb decision. Natalie does indeed play the idol on herself, but with three votes against him, it’s ultimately Ben who gets the boot. Can’t say I’m sorry to see him go. While I’m not as down on his win as most are, he is not the most interesting player to me, and as he had no shot at winning this season from what we’d seen up until this point, I’m ok with him going out, if only to make the ending all that much more exciting. Plus, Ben once again continues the trend of memorable exits, hooting and hollering. He even gets a Probst hug! Daaw.

With not real strategy to discuss at this point, we cut straight to our Final Immunity Challenge. Naturally, with a season honoring 20 years of “Survivor”, we go back to the beginning, with “Hand on a hard idol”. Bring it all back to that simple question of “How badly do you want it?” A test of will that will push our final four to their limits…

What’s that you say? They’re going with “Simmotion”? A final challenge that, while difficult, is probably the lamest-looking final immunity challenge ever? Yeah, keep calling this season “legendary”. See if it sticks.

Since this challenge is all about concentration, naturally Tony is out first. Some habits die hard, I guess. Sarah is out next, making our final victor moot, since we know that both Michele and Natalie would send the other two to fire making no matter what. Natalie is the ultimate victor, making some impressive saves, and meaning this season, before pretty good, is now coming dangerously close to “Survivor Edge of Extinction” territory.

Natalie doesn’t tell us who she’s sending to fire-making, though Tony is one of them. Everyone practices fire, leaving Tony’s opponent up in the air as we head out. As I’ve indicated, Natalie’s smartest option is to take Michele to the end. While her iconic line may be “I don’t need to be carried, bro!”, she’s not going to get a choice in this matter. While you have to have one of that dominating duo at the end, there’s no need to risk having both of them, and I maintain, Chris Underwood notwithstanding, that giving up safety to risk it all on a fire-making challenge is a dumb move in general. As such, Natalie relieves herself of the stupid ball, and sends Sarah and Tony to fire-making. Naturally since Sarah was talking before about how she was going to beat Tony in a fire-making challenge hands-down, Tony wins. And this after Natalie and Michele tried to backseat drive Sarah’s fire-making. I get what Natalie was trying to do here. Show herself as being in control of the whole final three, not just two-thirds of it. But by so blatantly favoring one side and then failing, she just makes herself look weaker. Sarah gets a good sendoff, tearfully bidding farewell to her cop buddy Tony, and getting a respectful “Lacina, the tribe has spoken.” to send her off. A nice capstone to the conversation that kickstarted this whole episode. I’m a bit sorry to see Sarah go, particularly after the sexism discussion, but the girl fought hard and can be proud of her performance. That was a really freaking close fire-making challenge.

The Day 39 breakfast means it’s time once again to hear the setup for our final arguments. They’re pretty much what you’d expect. Michele talks about playing from the bottom and proving herself as a winner. Natalie talks about fighting back from being the first person voted out. Tony talks about changing up his game and controlling the vote to the point of never having his name written down. All reasonable arguments, though given what this sort of jury would seem to favor, I think Michele has long odds. Still, you never know.

Give Michele full credit: She argues her case HARD at that Final Tribal Council. Even though, as astute as she is, I’m sure she knew she was fighting a losing battle, she did her best and argued to the bitter end. That is worthy of respect, in my book. Honestly, while all of the final three gave good arguments, I’m inclined to say Tony had the weakest of the three. Not so much because he gave bad arguments, but I feel the real strength of his game was his ability to change up his gameplay from his past two times, and he never really articulated that well. While the jury format still bugs me, with Probst interjecting too much, we did get a couple of iconic moments, something we really haven’t gotten from the jury since the switch to the new format. Yul’s stage fright. Jeremy calling out Tony on his supposed “Loyalty”. Boston Rob taking everyone to task for pretty much everything. Ben bonding with Michele over their “controversial” wins. And, of course, Danni’s nice summation at the end, culminating in a round of applause for the final three from everyone. A perfect capstone to this sort of moment. Really, the only sour note at this Tribal Council was the implication from the jury that Natalie should have fought Tony in fire-making if she wanted to win. Again, see my comments above about how that’s a stupid move and a needless risk nearly at the end of the game.

There were two ways this blog could have gone down. We saw a couple of Natalie votes, and a couple of Tony votes. No Michele votes (unfortunate, though I can understand why) means that either Natalie or Tony must win. While I do like Natalie overall, her win after being voted out first would have put this season in the same category as “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, a category it otherwise does not deserve to be in. This season is head and shoulders above that season in nearly every aspect, but if the outcome was that unsatisfying, I would have had no choice. Had that happened, you would not have gotten a recap blog. You would instead have gotten a 4,000 word rant about how evidently nothing that happens on “Survivor” matters anymore. Thankfully, the jury does the sane thing and awards the check to the guy who changed up his game the most in the ways that he needed to. While it was fairly obvious post-merge that it was Tony’s game to lose, the dude still played his butt off, and for the most part was able to stave off his old ways that got him an early boot on “Survivor Game Changers”. Those rare times he did dip back into his old gameplay, he was able to win immunities to take him through the danger zone. Hell, I’d even argue he played a perfect game. Dude never had a vote against him, and while he didn’t sweep the jury votes, it was a 16-person jury, and he still got 12 of them! That’s more than the other “perfect games” of J.T., Cochran, and arguably Jeremy. I think the dude deserves to be in the “perfect game” category at least as much as Jeremy does.

With no reunion show to talk over (though regarding the reading of the votes, I must say Michele cleans up nicely), it’s therefore time to talk about the season as a whole. Perhaps ranking it so soon after its end is a fool’s errand, but as a snarky internet blogger, I am duty-bound to do so anyway. That said, this is one of the hardest seasons for me to rank, since there’s more going into it than just a regular season. Do I judge it against the other returnee seasons? They keep talking about this as a “legends” season, should I judge based on my preconceptions of what that is, or what we got? Should how well it honors “Survivor” history be a factor? Or should I just judge it like any other season, based on how I feel and what seasons I feel similarly about? But isn’t that doing this season a disservice? After all, even if the execution was not “legendary”, the premise is. Do I then create a separate category for this season? Well, that just doesn’t seem fair to the other seasons, then.

Let me preface what I’m about to say with this: “Survivor Winners at War” is a good season. I daresay it belongs in the top half of “Survivor” seasons, easy. It had more heart, more genuine emotional moments than pretty much any other season, and it milked the unique premise for all it was worth. There were some stumbling blocks. The back half of the season in particular had issues. The outcome seemed fairly obvious, even if the path there wasn’t, and while the Edge of Extinction was indeed more tolerable on this season, having 19 people throughout the entire season really stretched the time limits, and made everything feeling rushed and unexplained. But for me, the big problem with this season is the marketing. Over and over, we hear about how this is a “Legendary” season, with the best to ever play. I’ll agree the PREMISE is legendary, but I don’t feel the gameplay was. I hear “Legendary” season, and I think of something like “Survivor Micronesia” or “Survivor Cambodia”. A season where, with little to no push from production, new and innovative strategies are brought forth, with unpredictability from week to week as to who goes. This season definitely had decent strategy. No marks against it in that category. But “legendary”? This just felt like pretty standard strategizing for a season of “Survivor” at this point. Nothing new really came from the players, save for the occasional person like Tony changing up their game. On a macro level? All pretty much standard. The only new dynamics came from the fire tokens, and while I’m ok with them as a twist, the fact that they come from production dampens their appeal, and thus they don’t feel like the “Legendary” strategy I felt we were promised. Even more insulting when you consider Probst, talking in this very episode, about “Putting the best of the best out there and letting them go at it.” If that’s what you wanted THEN WHY DID YOU PUT SO MUCH FOCUS ON THINGS OTHER THAN THE STRATEGY OF THE RETURNEES? Oh sure, we had some moments that could be called “Legendary”, but they were all either related to the emotions of the game, or just due to everyone trying to be respectful for the milestone season. The post-Tribal Council hug was a good example of this. It’s good, sure, but it’s not what you come to “Survivor” for. Then again, should marketing count against a season? It’s not related to the game itself, but intrinsically linked to the experience. That’s why this season is so hard for me to rank.

I considered a lot of places to put this season. I considered ranking it around All-Stars, as sort of polar opposites (All-Stars does a good job paying tribute to the history of “Survivor” while being painful to watch; Winners at War vice versa). I considered ranking it around Ghost Island, since I feel both share a major flaw (the outcome was obvious and it felt like no one did anything to stop it when they had the power to do so). However, both of these rankings felt wrong. Too low for a season that gave us such a different and overall enjoyable experience. For being such a different animal, I considered ranking it alongside Borneo, as both feel like they don’t belong with the rest of the seasons. That felt too high though, as again, Borneo is legend, and I’m sorry, but this season isn’t. In the end, in order to find a ranking I was satisfied with, I distilled this season down to its greatest strength, and its most prominent flaw, marketing aside. For strength, this season, by virtue of its premise, gave us new interpersonal dynamics and hyped up the emotion of the show, while still feeling genuine. On the downside, this season was bogged down by a twist that didn’t need to be there, and took up enough time that the latter half of the season in particular felt rushed. Thus, for me, this season falls just below “Survivor Blood vs. Water” in my season rankings. Both seasons that are objectively good, but dragged down by an objectively bad twist that did not need to be there. It’s a close call which I would rank higher, but given that “Survivor Blood vs. Water” gave us new players to return on later seasons, thus keeping the dynamics more fresh, I’m inclined to give it the edge. Until I change my mind again.

Well, with all that business out of the way, let’s see how much of an idiot I am, and compare my pre-season assessment of the players to how they actually did!

ETHAN-While not as high-and-mighty as I feared he might be, the dude was an early boot, and just couldn’t get in the groove he needed to make it deep. I’ll give myself the win on this one.

SANDRA-Again, right. Not given the time of day, and out earlier than ever before. Mad respect for sticking to her guns with her opinion of the Edge of Extinction, though.

AMBER-Well, she was the first one voted out of her tribe, and with Natalie re-entering the game, was TECHNICALLY the first boot, so again, I think I can fairly give myself this victory.

DANNI-Wrong. I’m still not sure exactly what happened, but the cool and collected stealth bomber of Guatemala was replaced with someone who seemed out of their depth. No disrespect to Danni, though. Hope this doesn’t dampen future Guatemala returnee prospects, though.

YUL-Wrong. Dude just had to let his nerd flag fly, and get voted out earlier than I thought possible for it.

PARVATI-While she didn’t return, and was much less cutthroat than I expected, she still went out about when I thought she would.

BOSTON ROB-He was kind of a shield, but he still went out earlier than I thought, and was never really in any sort of power. Can’t really say I was right about him.

SOPHIE-My lucky guess paid off. She was able to fit in quite well, and made it almost exactly as far as I thought. Sometimes I amaze even myself.

KIM-Wrong. That charm couldn’t keep her off the bottom, or get her into power. She’s still one of the most dominant winners ever, though.

DENISE-Wrong. If there could have been an under-the-radar winner this season, it would have been her.

TYSON-His threat level was higher than I though, and he was out earlier than I expected as a result. Another one for the “Wrong” column.

TONY-Wrong. For all that I don’t like the hype that’s built around him, dude did change up his game in the ways he needed to, something I’ll admit I thought impossible for him to do. Mad respect.

NATALIE-I knew pairs would be targeted this season, but I didn’t expect her to be the first casualty of that by a long shot. She was quite good at the Edge of Extinction, though.

JEREMY-He used his shields, but with less success, and went out post-merge. I slightly underestimated him, but was overall still right, I’d say.

MICHELE-While not eliminated per say, she still made it about as far as I thought she could. I’ll give myself this one.

ADAM-I called his personality, but he stuck around far longer than I would have thought he would.

SARAH-She had a real shot at winning, and made the very late merge. Yep, that’s wrong on all counts!

BEN-A much hotter commodity than I gave him credit for. Like Adam, I think I nailed his personality, but was wrong on how long he would be in the game.

WENDELL-Right with no qualifiers, for once.

NICK-Wrong. Dude hung in a lot longer than I though.

And there you have it, the last “Idol Speculation” of the season. And, contrary to Probst’s optimism, probably the last one you’re going to get for a while, given filming delays due to COVID-19. But that doesn’t mean you’ll see me go quiet! I’d like to get “Survivor Retrospectives” going again to tide us over, and I’ve got even more ideas for “Survivor What-Ifs” Plus a couple of special one-offs to help tide us over until we get another hit of the sweet, sweet, “Survivor” juice, whenever that may be.

And, of course, for the last time this season, I ask you to identify the quote that made the title of this blog. Post the name of the contestant and the season the quote came from in the comments of this blog, and I’ll be sure to include your name at the top of the next regular “Idol Speculation”, whenever it finally comes back. A friendly reminder that I only use quotes from US seasons of “Survivor”. And with that, I bid you good night.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Winners at War” Cast Assessment

Well, here we are! The official cast photos have been released, biographies are now up on the official website, we’ve got a new preview video… And yet we STILL don’t know the tribe names? What the heck, CBS? We can SEE who’s on what tribe in your videos. Make it easy on us and just break down the division. It would sure make my life easier.

Welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to. Somewhat less knee-jerk this time around since we’ve had a pretty good idea of who’s going to be on this cast for some time now, but here we are nonetheless. Time for me to talk about which winners I think have the skills to pay the bills, and the ones I think will wish they’d sat this season out. Since this is an all-returnee season, though, there’s a couple of bits of business to get out of the way. First off, the biographical information is going to be somewhat limited this time, basically just being the contestants name, season they won (it would take too long to list every season, and pointless to write “winner” over and over again), and which tribe they’re on. This is partly because I’m assuming some familiarity with these people from the readers of this blog, but also because, on a returnee season, these factors don’t matter as much in my opinion. With an all-newbie season, the writings are pretty much all we’ve got to go on. Here, however, we’ve SEEN these people play before, so things like their occupation and pet peeves don’t matter as much. Now, I have read the cast bios, and will occasionally bring them up, but most of my assessment will be based on how they played before/the dynamics endemic to a returnee season in this day and age. Since Edge of Extinction is regrettably back, I should explain that I’ll be keeping my ratings for how people do the same nonetheless. If I think someone can win their way back into the game, I will reflect this, but unless you win your way back in, or someone quits before you, when you were voted out is when you were voted out. Sitting on an island making friends we don’t get to see doesn’t count. As per usual with a returnee season, I’ll be mentioning when I think a player doesn’t fit, or I think someone else would have been better, and listing my preferred replacement beneath. And finally, on a lighter note, I’ll be calling these tribes “Red” and “Blue”, since again, CBS hasn’t given us their names for some stupid reason. Now, on to the assessment, in chronological order by first win!

Ethan Zohn (“Survivor Africa”, Blue Tribe): With Ethan, we have what I believe to be an “Idol Speculation” first: My favorite player of the season is the first one we talk about. “Survivor Africa” has always been one of my personal favorite seasons (it would probably make my top 5 if I didn’t have the nostalgia goggles on for “Survivor Guatemala”), and while I’m not going to sit here and say that Ethan is the greatest character to come out of the season, he’s still a lot of fun. A distinctive look, a good story, and just generally a nice guy. I could go on and on about just how likable Ethan is, but frankly, I think T-Bird said it best: “What can you say that’s bad about Ethan? Nuthin’!” This still holds true today. Plus, it’s intriguing to me to see how someone from such a different era of “Survivor” plays in the modern day, as Ethan now ties with another player on this season for longest gap between returns at 16 years. Even to this day, Ethan is one of the top social games ever played, and we’ve seen with the recent victories of Tommy Sheehan (“Survivor Island of the Idols”) and Wendell Holland (“Survivor Ghost Island”) that this style of gameplay is still very dangerous, and can realistically net someone a win. So, Ethan is my male pick to win the whole thing right? Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh…Nnnnnnnnnnnnnoooooo. Much as I love Ethan, and hope that I’m wrong in my assessment, I peg him as a pre-merge boot on this season. There’s two different, but related, factors to why I don’t see Ethan having a long shelf-life in this game. Ethan’s style of gameplay definitely still holds up, but he’s also been very vocal online about how “easy” the game is these days, and when he has talked about coming back, it’s to “show people how it’s done.” Much as I praise Ethan’s overall gameplay, I don’t give anyone good odds to win twice if they don’t change SOMETHING up about their game (some might say Sandra’s the counterargument to this, but I’d argue that she upped the intensity of her scheming on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, creating a distinct game from her first win). If Ethan’s not willing to adapt at least a little, he’s in trouble. His other issue is, well, the attitude I just mentioned. Recent players especially are not going to take their game being belittled like this well at all, and I could see that running counter to Ethan’s natural charm. I hope Ethan’s got enough good sense to keep that attitude in check, but as it stands, I just think the elitist attitude is going to come through, and lead to an early exit for Ethan. To end on a positive note, I will say that I enjoyed his answer as to how long he’s been watching “Survivor”. “…since Richard Hatch first took advantage of CBS’ ability to pixelate a moving image.” There’s the fun and charming Ethan we know!

Sandra Diaz-Twine (“Survivor Pearl Islands”, Red Tribe): The Queen herself! Of course, a season tackling legends such as these would be incomplete without the only two-time winner in the history of the show. Naturally, between this, her snark, and her ability to sabotage people without getting caught, I am thrilled to have Sandra back again. It’s only right and fair on a season like this. That said, I’m fairly certain this will be Sandra’s worst outing yet in terms of placement. Even on a season made up of pretty much nothing but big targets, she still stands out, with only Boston Rob and Amber (as a pair) possibly eclipsing her threat level. She’s in a similar position to Richard Hatch on “Survivor All-Stars”. Everyone wants to dethrone the queen. Sandra is wily enough that I don’t see her being the VERY first boot, but again, expect her to go pre-merge. She doesn’t work well as a shield, and no one wants to risk her getting far. Recipe for disaster on a season such as this.

Amber Mariano (“Survivor All-Stars”): Jumping ahead a bit to touch on my overall thoughts, I’m quite happy with this cast in general, and the women they chose in particular. This cast as a whole is actually my least-objectionable returnee cast since I’ve been blogging, beating out the previous record holder, “Survivor Cambodia”, with only three choices I disagree with to “Cambodia’s” four. And again, the women are overall much less objectionable than the men, in my opinion. Amber is the exception. Who in their right mind thought it was a brilliant idea to bring Amber back? Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure she’s a lovely person, but on screen, she’s just BORING! Basically no flavor to her personality, and just there to be generically “nice”. It would be one thing if she was coming back on her own, but I have to say it was a dick move by the producers to bring her back with Boston Rob, since it torpedoes any chance she has of winning this thing. Rob would have a target on his own, but Amber, on her own, might fly under the radar on a season like this, and do quite well. But while Rob is a threat individually, he and Amber combined are probably the biggest threat around. We might have players who played together before, but there’s a difference between being allies and being MARRIED! They’ve basically got the downside of being a couple on a “Blood vs. Water” season, when everyone else is single, and thus, one of them is going out early. Most other analysis I’ve seen says Boston Rob will be the early target, but I personally think Amber is going to be the initial target. Boston Rob may be a threat, but he’s good as a shield, good at camp life, and good at challenges, for his age. There’s reasons to keep him around. Amber? There’s no real reason to keep her, and with Boston Rob around, there’s a reason to get rid of her: Her exit weakens Boston Rob’s game. As such, Amber will be the first boot out of this season. Unless the tribe REALLY wants to get rid of the biggest threats early (and as I’ll discuss at the end, I don’t see that happening this season), Amber brings the least to the tribe, and gains a lot for the tribe by being gone. Such a shame, too, as we could have had someone a lot more intriguing this time around. Someone like…

Vecepia Towery (“Survivor Marquesas”): Perhaps a controversial choice, but while Vecepia was not the most memorable player on her season, she at least had a couple of moments, and a lot more agency in the game than Amber ever demonstrated. Vecepia, while “quiet” by today’s standards, had a subtle strategy that I’d like to see play out in a modern setting. Plus, if you were looking for “random, non-threatening winner from an early season” for this slot, I’d argue that Vecepia fits better since she’s, you know, NOT MARRIED TO ANOTHER PLAYER, THEREBY BEING A MAJOR TARGET THROUGH NO FAULT OF HER OWN! Oh, and she’s the only African-American woman to win “Survivor”. Does that count for nothing, CBS? Shouldn’t you at least have CONSIDERED her in casting?

Danni Boatwright (“Survivor Guatemala”, Blue Tribe): Stars be praised, “Survivor Guatemala” is getting its first representative on a returnee season! At last, CBS acknowledges the season for the underrated gem that it is, bringing back a stellar strategist to boot! Yeah, I’m a bit excited to see Danni back. While I admit she was by no means my favorite player on the season, I cannot deny that she played a superb game that flew below the radar even of the producers. As to how she’ll do, I’d say Danni has a decent shot at winning the whole thing, possibly even a dark horse for a victory. Danni strikes me as the type able to adapt to whatever situation she’s thrown in, and so won’t play the same game, but take the best elements from her old game, and combine them with what works now. Point being, she’s a threat, but from a relatively forgotten season. This means she won’t be used as a shield, but also means she can slip in as a number, without being a “Hey, what about that person?” sort of boot. My only concern with Danni, as I’ll talk about with other players, is how much drive she has to win this game. The one drawback to an all-winners season is that you run the risk of people basically saying “Eh, I’ve won already, I don’t need to try hard this time.” While I don’t think Danni will go this way, I could see her taking things a bit easier than before, feeling that she’s accomplished what she needed to on her first season. Still, since Danni strikes a good balance of savvy-enough to play well, but not so savvy as to be threatening, I see her making the late merge, possibly even the final episode, and would not be that surprised if she won.

Yul Kwon (“Survivor Cook Islands”, Red Tribe): Keeping up the positivity train, I’m happy to see Yul back in the game. He played one of the more dominant games of the first half of the show, but knows how to play the diplomat as well. He was one of my favorites on the season (though I must admit I like Cao Boi slightly more), and his return fills me with joy. Also surprise, since Yul was a person I thought had kind of moved on from “Survivor”. Still, he deserves to be back for his performance alone, and I think his return will be rewarded. Yes, Yul is my male pick to win the season, and if you were to put a gun to my head, and forced me to give one name only to be the winner, I would probably go with Yul. Like I said, the guy’s a diplomat, and still built enough to be considered a “threat”, and so can get in on a “meat shield” alliance. That said, I think Yul will be underestimated since people will say “Well, he only won because he had a super idol”. While technically true, I’d say people unfairly undersell Yul’s game because of this. Yes, he had that idol, but it would only have saved him once if he hadn’t used it properly. Instead, he used it to put pressure on a swing vote, and give his side the majority for the rest of the game. Yul is a big threat, but an underestimated one, and so I’d say he’s probably going to be the second two-time winner in the history of the show.

Parvati Shallow (“Survivor Micronesia”, Blue Tribe): And, there goes the positivity train. Don’t misunderstand, I’m happy Parvati’s back. The woman who helped organize the “Black Widow Brigade”, and won my favorite season of all-time, is always worth bringing back, and well worthy of a season of this caliber. The trouble is that Parvati, like Sandra, is an obvious threat who doesn’t work well as a shield for you. As such, Parvati is another pre-merge boot, though I could see her being our Edge of Extinction merge returnee, since she’s not as bad in challenges as one might think, especially if it ends up being endurance or balance-based. If so, then she probably leaves pretty much immediately after. She’s still a threat at the merge, and I don’t see these players suffering people winning their way back in gladly. Parvati’s time on the island this time around will be nasty, brutish, and short, but fun nonetheless. One minor upside for Parvati: She’s competitive enough that I don’t see her going “Eh, I already won.” at any point. Not sure it’s enough to save her, but a point in her favor nonetheless.

“Boston” Rob Mariano (“Survivor Redemption Island”, Blue Tribe): I kind of already went over my thoughts on Boston Rob already, so his bio may be kind of short. With the possible exception of Sandra, Rob is probably the biggest threat going into this season. Without Amber there, he would still be a big threat, but the threat of “couples” puts him over the top. That said, once Amber leaves, his threat level takes a big step down, and coupled with a probably “shield” alliance he can get going, I expect Boston Rob to stick around for a while. Not only can he be a good shield, but he’s going to make camp life a lot more comfortable, which is no small consideration. He probably gets voted out in the early merge, once he loses an immunity, but again, he’s not in bad shape, so I still expect him to do well in challenges, even winning his way back from the final Edge of Extinction Challenge. Like Parvati, he’ll be voted out shortly after, since no one on this season will let another “Chris Underwood” situation happen like on the titular “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, but as a result, Rob will be around until the final episode. I suppose I should also mention that he’s part of the reason I have Parvati going early, since I don’t see him forgetting “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” any time soon. As to my happiness at his return… Eh? While I don’t hate Boston Rob, I’ve never been his biggest fan, and five times playing the game (six if you count his mentorship on “Survivor Island of the Idols”, which I don’t) feels like too much for anyone. That said, outside of Rupert (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) and possibly Richard Hatch (“Survivor Borneo”), he’s one of the most easily recognized players by the general public, and played one of the more dominant games seen by a winner, so even if I don’t like it, he has earned his right to come back.

Sophie Clarke (“Survivor South Pacific”, Red Tribe): For most of these returnees, as soon as I heard they were coming back, I had at least a base opinion on their chances. Sophie was the exception for me. Sophie is a bit of a paradox in the world of “Survivor”: the person who played the smartest game by actively choosing to do nothing. It’s not like she even went out of her way to go to the end with despised people, she was just able to articulately explain her decisions well, and earned a deserved victory for it. Honestly, I was pleasantly surprised to see her back, since her game was not the most exciting, and she seems to get snubbed by CBS as a result. I’m glad to see that her snark is recognized, and am very happy to have her back on the season as well. Like I said, though, I wasn’t certain of her chances. Playing the same game doesn’t work twice, and that goes double in the case of Sophie. One of the reasons her strategy worked last time was the fanatical loyalty that Upolu had to Coach, thus allowing her to take things slow and quiet. That will not be the case this time. Hence, hers was one of the bios I was most interested in reading this time, to see if she recognized this. Thankfully she did, so I give Sophie decent odds in this game. I don’t see her winning, but if she can adapt her strategy to better fit this more proactive group, I see her making the mid-to-late merge before people basically say “Hey, wait a minute…” and boot her off. We’ll get plenty of snark, though, which is ok by me!

Kim Spradlin-Wolfe (“Survivor One World”, Red Tribe): I’m not going to mince words: Kim is my female pick to win the whole season. Kim, like Boston Rob before her, played quite a dominant game, but unlike Boston Rob, did it on her first try. This speaks volumes to her gamesmanship skills, and I would be foolish to say that she has no shot at winning as a result. True her dominant performance does make her a threat, yet poor shield, sort of similarly to Parvati, but I think Kim is helped by the fact that “Survivor One World” is frankly not a good season. This makes her game less well-remembered, and also gives people the psychological out of “Oh, she was playing against idiots, and I’m not an idiot, so of course I’ll beat her!”, which gives her an edge. I could be very wrong here, since her performance was SO dominant as to be memorable in its own right, and it’s why, if forced to pick a winner between her and Yul, I’d bet on Yul. I’m also a bit worried since Kim says she’s playing this season “intuitively”. Not that this isn’t necessarily true, but I wonder how much Kim has really thought about this pre-season. If she hasn’t done much, and other people have, she may be in trouble. That said, Kim’s instincts have rarely proven wrong, and she’s a dominant player who does not necessarily come across as one, so I’d say she’s a probable winner for the season, and well deserving of her spot.

Denise Stapley (“Survivor Philippines”, Blue Tribe): Outside of Ethan, Denise is probably the person I’m most excited to see back. Us Psychology peeps have to stick together after all. Similarly to Sophie, she’s one I was pleasantly surprised to see back. She didn’t make much of a splash on her season compared to the Malcoms and the Lisas, but she had a wit about her that I liked, and played a simple, yet smart, game. It’s an intelligent choice I’m proud to say is on this season. That said, unlike Sophie, but like Ethan, I don’t give Denise very good odds in this game. She fares slightly better than Ethan, since I think she’s an early merge boot, but I just don’t see her winning. While Denise surviving EVERY SINGLE TRIBAL COUNCIL is an impressive feat (an another reason she deserves to be on a season such as this), the fact is that apart from a tight partnership with Malcolm, her strategy never seemed to coalesce. That is to say, she definitely had a strategy, but it was kind of a “go with the flow” strategy. That can get you through the early phases of a season like this, but she’s going to need to up her game in order to have a shot. Frankly, I didn’t see Denise doing that before this season, and in her bio she talks about not changing her game that much, which is her death knell to me. Simply due to their being bigger fish to fry, she lasts until the merge, but not much beyond that, which is a shame.

Tyson Apostol (“Survivor Blood vs. Water”, Red Tribe): Hoo boy, controversial opinion time. I know that Tyson is a lot of people’s favorite player, or at least amongst their favorite players. Read a list of “Funniest Players” and you’re almost guaranteed to see Tyson’s name on there. However, humor is subjective, and for me, Tyson just doesn’t do it. Personal, I know, but I just don’t like his style of humor. His delivery is excellent, but he seems to go in for insult comedy, which to me only really works if you insult yourself as much as you insult other people. Maybe it’s just what we’re shown, but Tyson doesn’t seem to do that all that often, and it just rubs me the wrong way. Plus, I’m not a fan of jokes about encouraging people to kill themselves. On a more objective criticism note, while Tyson definitely played a fantastic game his third time out, he’s not what I’d call a “legendary” player like you’d want on this season, and frankly, I think his story arc kind of had the perfect conclusion on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”. He went from not taking the game that seriously his first time out, to trying to take it more seriously but making a dumb move, to earning his redemption with a well-deserved win. No need to sully that story with an unnecessary fourth appearance. With all that said, how do I think Tyson will do? I put him as another early merge boot. His demeanor is non-threatening, and I could also see him being kept around as a shield. However, once the merge hits, he becomes much more of a threat, and is voted out as a result. Not a bad showing, but I still think we could have done better. So, who would I have cast instead?

Chris Daugherty (“Survivor Vanuatu”): For me, this is the biggest snub of the season. Chris may not be as big a character as Tyson is, but if you’re looking to really pit the best against each other, it’s a crime to not have Chris back to test his mettle. The man was down 1-6 on a gender-divided season and STILL won! That takes some gumption, and it kills me that we don’t get to see him test himself against the best. Frankly, if he were here, he’d have beaten out Yul as my male pick to win the whole thing. Plus, I just wanted to see his prediction from the “Survivor Vanuatu” DVD come true. Is that so wrong?

Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”, Red Tribe): While I’m not as big a Tony fan as some others, and feel his game is overvalued, I cannot deny that he has earned his spot amongst the best of the best. Equal parts character and strategist (even if that strategy amounts to “throw it at the wall and see what sticks” in my opinion), Tony is definitely one of the more memorable and engaging winners of more recent seasons, and so of course he’s going to come back. He’s also going to be a major factor in Sandra going out early, since like with Boston Rob and Parvati, I don’t see him forgetting their last appearance together. That said, while I don’t see Tony doing as poorly as he did on “Survivor Game Changers”, I still have him pegged as a pre-merge boot, probably right after the swap. Some might argue he’d be kept around as a shield, but shields need to be reliable, at least in terms of strategy. A lot of words come to mind when I think of Tony. “Reliable” is not one of them. Even if he might be good to take deep in the game, he’s too volatile to risk. There’s people who go before him on his tribe, but he’s an easy boot at the swap, so that’s where I see him going.

Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”, Blue Tribe): Having played one of the best “Revenge” games in the show’s history, and helping salvage the season from the blandness that is Jon Misch, Natalie is someone who very much earned a spot back on this season. And I think her gameplay will serve her well this time around as well. The woman’s loud enough and dominant enough to work as a shield, but not so much as to be considered a major threat who needs to be targeted early. All that makes for a good combination, leading to a probably mid-merge boot. I don’t put her higher only because she’s one of the few people who says she won’t change her game that much, and while not the worst thing in her case, that can only take you so far. Her only other pitfall, I’ll discuss in the next bio.

Jeremy Collins (“Survivor Cambodia”, Blue Tribe): Ok, I have to say it: WHAT IDIOT DIVIDED THESE TRIBES? Look, putting enemies together on one tribe was going to be inevitable, especially since about half of the original “Villains” tribe is on this season, but did you need to put ALLIES together? Would it have really been that hard to put Jeremy and Natalie on separate tribes to start out with? This is the other pitfall I mentioned for Natalie, and it goes for Jeremy as well. While not the same as being married, two close allies together on the same tribe is trouble, and if their tribemates recognize this, one of them at least is going early, if not both. That said, I think Jeremy and Natalie are both smart enough to keep their connection on the down-low, and since their shared season is not that well-remembered, I’d expect Jeremy to do well as well, keeping up yet modifying his “shields” idea, and getting to the early merge with it. I may be shooting myself in the foot, underestimating Jeremy a second time, but like on “Survivor Cambodia”, I think he’s just outclassed. These people aren’t going to let him get to the end again, but he should get decently far, assuming he keeps his alliance with Natalie under wraps. For those wondering why I bring up the “shields” strategy so much in this cast assessment: Bear in mind that Jeremy is so far the only man to win an all-returnee season. The only model we have for men winning these seasons was created by him. The other dominant players would be fools not to follow, with modifications, his example. For engineering that strategy into the popular lexicon, Jeremy is definitely worthy of his spot among the best.

Michele Fitzgerald (“Survivor Kaoh Rong, Blue Tribe): Longtime readers of mine will know of my love for Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”) to the point that she’s my favorite player of all time. However, contrary to what this might imply, I am THRILLED that Michele’s back. Similar to Sophie, she played a game worthy of respect, but not respected by CBS, so I’m glad she gets another chance to show them how you actually play the game well. While I respect Aubry’s game, Michele also played a great game, and is a worthy winner to her season (in case anyone was wondering, while I do dislike the outcome of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, it is because the editors did not take the time to adequately show us Aubry’s “faults”, thus making Michele’s victory seem unearned. However, this is entirely the fault of the editing team/post-production, and not any of the players on that season. In my view, it is possible to say that both Michele and Aubry played good games, and still not be satisfied with the outcome). Normally I’d be concerned with Michele’s chances, since she’s another one who says she won’t change much. Michele, however, is the exception that proves the rule, as I think she’s the one person who can play the same game over and over and keep winning. When I think of Michele, the first word that comes to mind is “chameleon”. Michele just has a natural ability to blend into whatever situation or group she finds herself in, and argued properly (which Michele has shown she can do), this is a winning strategy. It says something that even on a season and a tribe that skews older, I give Michele good odds, despite being one of the youngest players of the season. That said, do I think that strategy will give her a win? Possibly, but I’d say she’s probably out around the mid-to-late merge area. Michele is good, but so is her competition. Close to the end, they’ll say “Hey wait a minute! What’s she still doing here?” and there’s nothing she can do about it. A shame, but I expect a good showing from Michele nonetheless.

Adam Klein (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”, Blue Tribe): Oh, Adam. I like you buddy. I really do. I’m even ok with you being here, representing the “superfan” winner since Cochran (“Survivor South Pacific”) can’t. But MAN, do you not have a snowball’s chance at winning this season. Adam has a few factors working against him. While not a dominant winner, his win is recent enough to still be fresh in people’s memories, and make them wary. Adam’s also on the younger end of things this season, which will make it harder for him to connect with people. And while I enjoy his superfan status, I fear it will blind him in terms of the game and/or annoy his fellow players. I can see Ethan or Boston Rob getting fed up with hero worship pretty quickly. Really, though, for me what kills Adam’s chances of winning is his determination and story. Sad though it is to say, a lot of Adam’s win had to do with the regrettable death of his mother. That was a driving factor in why he played so hard on his season, and in his closing arguments for his win. Without these factors, I don’t see him playing hard enough to stay in, and as such is an easy pre-merge boot. A shame, since I like the guy, but I call them like I see them.

Sarah Lacina (“Survivor Game Changes”, Red Tribe): AGAIN, REALLY? So, not only do we have allies Jeremy and Natalie on the same tribe, but we have Sarah and Tony on the same tribe now as well? WHY? It’s not just that it’s an edge for one side or the other, depending on how you look at it, but it could have been so easily avoided! Swap Sarah and Natalie, and bam! Tribes are still balanced, but no major allies end up on the same starting tribe! This is not rocket science, people! While I may not be happy with her tribe placement, I am happy to see Sarah back again. Her win was one of the better parts of “Survivor Game Changers”, and I’m always happy to see someone back who admits they’ve made mistakes and have learned from them. Really, the main mark against Sarah is Tony, since the pair of them do stick out as an alliance, making them a threat, but since I see Tony going early, this is less of a problem for Sarah. She probably makes the early-to-mid-merge, but I just don’t think enough time has passed for her to have a real shot at winning. I touched on this briefly with Adam, but we’re getting to the point in the series now where everyone remembers your past game, and you seem more of a threat because of it. This will be Sarah’s undoing, but she’ll stick around a good bit before then.

Ben Driebergen (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”, Blue Tribe): Perhaps a controversial opinion, but I’m totally cool with Ben getting another shot at the game. Yes, he used a lot of idols and advantages towards the end, but unlike some, I tend to put the fault for that on his fellow players rather than Ben or production. You’re trying to get this guy out, have a majority of players over him, and you DON’T set a watch on him? You deserve what you get. Plus, even bearing in mind all the edges he had in the game (he definitely doesn’t win without final four fire making), the dude’s a nice guy and a deserving winner. Hopefully this time he can shake off the stigma of supposed “production help”. That said, I’m not sure he’s going to get the chance to do it, since Ben is another pre-merge boot, if you ask me. What Ben’s most remembered for are the “Ben Bombs” at Tribal Council, and the fact is, like Tony, this leads to an unpredictability in his game I don’t see this group tolerating. Ben might make the swap at least, but I don’t see him getting much beyond that.

Wendell Holland (“Survivor Ghost Island”, Red Tribe): Wendell played very well on his season, and I stand by the comparison to Ethan Zohn. He has the same social upside as Ethan, without the cumbersome baggage of early-season elitism. Really, Wendell’s biggest issue is just how recently he won. True, it was not a dominating performance on his own, and I could see people looking at him like JT or Stephen from “Survivor Tocantins” playing without their other half, and thereby not being a threat. However, while close, a tie vote does stick in the mind, and I don’t see Wendell being able to play as low-key as he did the last time as a result. There’s always going to be some eyes on him, which will understandably make his game harder. That said, one’s social graces should not be underestimated, and I’d say Wendell’s skills will take him to the early-to-mid-merge area, especially since Wendell seems to recognize what he’s going to need to change in his bio. At that point, though, he just sticks in the mind too much, and goes home. If it’s any consolation, I do think he deserves a spot on this season. Even leaving aside the “Winner to win in a tiebreaker” milestone, he reminded us that, even in this day and age, social game wins out over flashy moves, and that counts for a lot in my book.

Nick Wilson (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”, Red Tribe): Rounding out our cast, we have what I consider to be one of the odd choices of the season. I understand why they cast Nick. “Survivor David vs. Goliath” is the most recent season to get an overall positive reception, and is one of the few in the 30’s to get such a reception. It’s well-remembered and well-liked, so of course you want the winner back. However, while I definitely like and respect the season, it’s got little to do with Nick. He’s hardly a BAD winner, but aside from the nickname thing (which I personally found annoying thanks to my Post-Phillip-Sheppard-Stress-Disorder), does he really stand out as a winner? He played a solid game, but an unremarkable one, and on a season supposedly celebrating the best of the best, I think we could do better. While you might argue that Nick’s in a good spot due to not standing out, I still peg him as a pre-merge boot, though probably post swap. Simply put, he’s too recent and too young. Our youngest player on the season will have a hard time bonding with an overall older cast, and his recent win will mean he’s always a target. Hence, when you need someone out at the swap, there’s Nick Wilson, easy target. That said, since I don’t think he should be on this season, who would I put in his place?

Mike Holloway (“Survivor Worlds Apart”): Again, a controversial call, and for me “Survivor David vs. Goliath” is far and away a better season than “Survivor Worlds Apart”. But love or hate him, Mike Holloway is MEMORABLE, which Nick, for me, is not. Plus, Mike won in a unique way, immunitying his way to the end, which would have been good to see represented on this season, and see how it stacks up against the other styles of gameplay. Unlike the other replacements I’d have on the season, Mike was at least CONTACTED, but still, given how unusual his win was, this still feels like a snub.

And there you have it, one of the best returnee casts this show has ever had! For all my complaints, most of these choices are logical, and while CBS is doing their damnedest to make this a bad season, there’s still a joy in seeing all the winners together. Since I doubt we’ll get a straight Pagonging this season, an analysis of the tribes seems almost irrelevant, but for what it’s worth, despite not producing a winner pick I give the Blue tribe an edge early on. Both tribes are fairly evenly matched in terms of challenge ability, but I think Red has more challenge sinks. Since so many challenges are “Only as fast as your slowest member”, I see them losing the first couple (probably where Amber and Sandra go), but then finding their footing at a swap, with only a vulnerable couple (Tony, Nick) going at that point. As mentioned, I also see a “shields” strategy being prominent this season, with Jeremy and Boston Rob doing it jointly on the Blue Tribe, while Yul and Kim probably lead the charge on the Red tribe.

So, as to the twists of this season. Edge of Extinction is back once again, and as I hope I’ve made clear, I am not a fan. It either takes up too much time in the game or produces an unsatisfying winner, neither of which is a good outcome for the show. That being said, since these players know about it going in, and since I doubt they’ll award an Edge of Extinction returning player, I’m hopeful that this will be like Redemption Island on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, and be an element that is ultimately more of a time-wasting irrelevance than something that actively makes the season awful. Thus, I will not hate the season immediately for having this twist, but it is on thin ice. I also see this Edge of Extinction either having no quitters ever (due to just how determined people are this season) or having a ton of quitters (due to people saying “I’ve won before, I don’t need to starve again for a shot to get back in”), either of which would be a more intriguing dynamic than what we got the first time, though again, it leads to far too big a jury. The $2,000,000 prize money is an appropriate touch, though I do kind of wish that it was $3,000,000, just so that the winner of this season automatically won the most money off of “Survivor” no matter what. An then, there are the “Fire Tokens”. If, for some reason, you are coming to me first, Fire Tokens are a “currency” added to this season of the game. People on Edge of Extinction offer items such as food up for sale in exchange for these tokens, which they in turn can use to make the return challenge easier. This… is actually not a bad idea. True, I am annoyed that it’s putting more emphasis on Edge of Extinction, but it gives the people there something to do that’s more connected to the game, and unlike some twists, I think has interesting social implications. I don’t know how many of you remember the old show “Pirate Master” but I liked it, and one of the things I liked most was that you earned prize money as you went, but could trade it with other players in the hopes of swaying them to your side. It added a new social dynamic, and a new value to the money, and I think it could work well on “Survivor”. Even the willing of tokens if voted out I don’t mind, as they’re not as powerful as a Legacy Advantage, and do emphasize the social aspect of the game. So, in conclusion, I think the idea of Fire Tokens area an intriguing new addition to the game… FOR A NEWBIE SEASON!

Soapbox time, but this, to me, is what’s wrong with modern “Survivor”: no pacing. Contrary to some, I would not want a season free of all idols and advantages. While we complain about them, the fact is they can help shake up the game, and make Pagongings slightly less likely. Yes, the early seasons were hardly boring, but at this point, we can’t really go “back to basics” without a bit of culture shock. No, my issue with modern “Survivor” is the rate at which it GIVES OUT these new twists and advantages. While an exaggeration, it feels like every season has five new elements added to the game. I get the need to innovate. I agree with changing things up to prevent us seeing the same show over and over again. But PACE YOURSELF! This season has returning players. Returning WINNERS! A twist fans have been begging for for years! That, plus hidden immunity idols and MAYBE one extra advantage is all you need. Save your new ideas for a future season. You could build an entire season around the idea of Fire Tokens! Why waste the idea on a season we were already excited for anyway? This is especially perplexing to me since the show now seems rooted in Fiji, and NEEDS to have a theme for each season, since the locations aren’t distinct any more. Why do you throw out so many ideas at once, when ONE will do? “Survivor”, in short, is shooting its bolt too early, and I think in the long run, will pay the price for it.

Still, I’ve been wrong before. Perhaps the stellar cast will overcome the other bad news about the season. I won’t be recapping the special from the week before, since I would just be recapping the recap, so I’ll see you after the premiere of “Survivor Winners at War”!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Edge of Extinction” “Finale”: Rise of the Quotation Marks

Well, “Survivor”, credit where credit is due: You did it. You managed to give us another first. Many would have thought it impossible after 38 seasons of the show, but they managed it. Yes, I can definitely say without a doubt, this season…

IS THE WORST THING THIS SHOW HAS EVER DONE IN THE ENTIRETY OF ITS EXISTENCE! Look, I’ve tried to be as fair as possible to this season. I tried not to go in hating it on the twist alone. I gave it credit where it earned it. Hell, I would even say some of the merge episodes were pretty good. Not legendary, mind you, but entertaining and worthy of the “Survivor” brand. But that ending. Good Lord, that ending! I had prepared myself for this possibility. I thought I was ok with it, but the more and more I think about it, the more and more it just pisses me off. Yes, “Survivor Fiji” can now rest easy. It has stopped being the general punching bag of bad “Survivor” seasons for me. Be prepared for a number of “Survivor Edge of Extinction” jokes in the future. What could make a season so bad that even the presence of my beloved Aubry cannot earn it any credit?

Well, before we find out, we have to delay talking about this awful “finale” with another round of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

I’ll keep this one brief, but I feel it’s important to touch on. For all that I give Rick credit for what he was able to do, and how he’s able to win over the jury, I wasn’t impressed with his performance at the previous Tribal Council. The whole “righteous indignation” thing worked at the Ron boot, because Rick had actually been tricked in what could be interpreted as a mean-spirited way. This time, however? He’s just mocking their inability to vote him out. Kind of giving back the whole “mean-spirited” thing, and losing the high ground, Rick.

Moving on to our episode proper, you’d think we’d start out at the fallout of the previous Tribal Council. HA HA! You fool! That’s for seasons that DON’T have 8/9ths of the contestants left in the final episode! Because heaven forbid a great character become an early martyr! Yes, we’re going straight to our “Edge of Extinction” challenge, which is your standard ropes course with a table maze at the end, though with a few cool elements. One is the maze itself, which is distinguishable by having the holes for the balls in separate spots, at the midpoint and the end, rather than side-by-side. The big draw, here, is the bridge to the table maze. Rather than your standard plank puzzle bridge, players use the ropes they’ve been navigating through to build the bridge, which is a new idea that works on “Survivor”, and is pretty challenging. Shame it has to be wasted on as overall lackluster a challenge as this.

Now, with 16 people competing in arguably their most important challenge of their game, we of course need some idea of who’s in it to win it. The smart thing to do would have been to build story arcs for those on the Edge of Extinction, like you would do in a NORMAL season, and then let this challenge be the culmination of said story arcs. This being “Survivor Edge of Extinction” they instead do the dumb thing of giving us little to nothing of most of our players, and instead just have the frontrunners get out early in the challenge. Thus, we quickly learn that only Aurora, Eric, Joey Amazing, and Chris are really in contention. Aubry, despite my hopes and predictions, chokes. Even worse, she chokes on the part of the challenge SHE HAD PRACTICED! No, it does not diminish my love for her, and no, it does not contribute to my newfound hatred for this season. Even if Aubry’s loss could be counted as a “sin”, believe me, it would be the LEAST of the sins here.

Out of these four, Chris is our winner. I suppose of those four, he had the closest thing to a story arc, though I lump his “I didn’t get my perfect game.” storyline with Andrew Savage’s “I’m missing my perfect supermodel wife from my life where everything except ‘Survivor’ is perfect!” storyline: It exists, but is pointless and whiny, serving only to turn me against the character. We get our teary farewell confessionals from our remaining contestants who are now, mercifully out of the game. I suppose it’s decently emotional, but more due to the mirror neurons firing than due to the confessionals themselves actually being emotional.

This leads to our first forced Probst segment, where he talks to Joe about losing the game again. After getting an assurance from Joe that Joe thinks he himself can win, Probst nearly has a heart attack when Joe is noncommittal about returning. Trying to salvage the situation, Probst goes for what I describe as “comedy” only in the loosest sense of the term, going on about Joe’s hair being his weakness. Probst, might I suggest you look up the story of “Samson and Delilah”? You might learn a few things about suggest haircuts.

Getting back to camp, Chris now has the daunting task of integrating himself into a group that has every reason to want him gone, and half of whom he hasn’t even played with prior to this day. To his credit, I think he plays it off as best he can here. He talks about the harshness of Edge of Extinction, and how exhausted he is from playing on it. However, he also highlights the insights he has to the jury, and how he’s willing to talk about them with anyone. This simultaneously diminishes Chris’ threat level, while also giving him a bargaining chip in any conversation. His salesman’s skills mean that to the untrained eye, this comes off as genuine. Fortunately for us, Victoria is highly intelligent, as well as having a good bullshit detector. She notes that OF COURSE this is what Chris is going to say, and affirms that he and Rick are targets A and B.

Chris, of course, still needs allies, and so speaks with Rick, the one person who might have his back. Indeed, Rick notes the irony of the situation: How he had helped vote Chris out, only to be voted out himself, and now the two need to work together if they hope to survive. Rick admits to some mistrust, but the guy with no allies to speak of takes what he can get.

Obstacle course number one is nothing to speak of, though I’ll give credit that the circular puzzle is better this time, in and of that you can’t simply look at the logo to get the design. You’d have to examine the immunity idol, which is harder to see at a distance and less frequently examined closely. Julie ends up the victor, which would be uneventful were it not for the way she wins. Oh, I’m not talking about her mistake in building the border first rather than building vertically to help prevent puzzle collapse. No, Chris, recognizing his own inevitable loss of the challenge, stops what he’s doing to help Julie. This, understandably, gets the attention of Rick, who was decently close in the challenge, and is naturally unhappy about a supposed ally helping to ensure his defeat. This is played up as a big deal, and I think it SHOULD have been a big deal, but for two guys with few alliance prospects, I doubt they can let this come between them.

Julie also wins steak dinner, with the choice to bring two people along with her. Hoo boy, does Julie drop the ball here. Chris is her first choice, and I get where she’s coming from in the “he hasn’t had anything to eat since he got voted out” thing, plus the whole “helped her win the challenge” thing, but Julie, it’s the end of the game. Time to be cutthroat. Need I remind you that you are STRENGTHENING ARGUABLY THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THREAT LEFT IN THE GAME WHO YOU AREN’T EVEN ALLIED WITH? Sigh. At least her second pick, Lauren, makes a little more sense, since they did work together and all before, but despite this, it still alienates her allies. Specifically Victoria, which even RICK calls out as a dumb move on her part. Need I remind you that the only times Victoria HASN’T voted correctly has been when she’s helping out with a split vote? She seems like a person you don’t want to piss off.

Over dinner, our castaways discuss their vote-out options. Rick is of course the primary target, and Chris proves his loyalty by covering for Rick’s idol, which Rick had revealed to him in their previous talk. This then leads to who the backup should be, with the idea floated out that Victoria be the next one to go. Makes sense. She seems popular, and I think has been a low-key major decision maker this entire time. Rick is, of course, planning to use his idol tonight, though whether he’ll go against Chris or not is up in the air. After all, if he were to sway Gavin and Victoria to his side, he’d be able to at least tie, and then rely on everyone else’s self-preservation instinct to break that tie. Despite saving Chris being the clear obvious choice, this is actually some interesting misdirection.

Too bad it goes nowhere! We find out that, like Rick, Chris was given an idol good for the next Tribal Council, but only if half is temporarily given to another player. Chris, recognizing the need to build trust, gives it to Rick, who now trusts Chris 100%, and cements the loss of Victoria. I’ll explain why that’s a shame in a bit, but first, let’s talk about the substitute intrigue for a bit. Rick is hardly the only person Chris has been talking to, and Lauren, at least, is willing to give him the time of day. Chris knows from Kelley that she has an idol, but has been keeping it under wraps for her. Chris tells her that what the jury is looking for is for idols to be played, and played correctly. A plausible lie told in a convincing way. So, now the question is: Will Lauren play her idol for Chris?

Yes. The answer is yes. After a throughly “nothing” Tribal Council, we find that both Lauren and Rick blow their idols. Rick needed to, but as Lauren laments, she wasted hers, with Victoria going out 2 to nothing, against the one vote Chris would have had. Victoria is a major loss for the season, in more ways than one. This gets into the first two problems this season has: who gets booted, and how they’re presented. There were some great new characters and strategists this season, and Victoria, for me, was definitely one of them. More so the latter than the former, but still intriguing, particularly given her young age. Thus, losing her loses the person I was most rooting for at this point, and while it’s a smart move to take out the smart people at this point in the game, it’s not as fun from an audience perspective. More to the point, however, is that while all these things about Victoria are true, you need to look REALLY deep to find them. For all that Victoria was a major force this season, post Aubry-boot she was pretty much nonexistent. Probst even commented at the Reunion show (which is spared quotation marks due to actually being decent this season) that Victoria played a good under-the-radar game that doesn’t get the credit it deserves. Nice sentiment, Probst, but here’s an idea: If you want people to get credit for their work, THEN ACTUALLY SHOW THEIR WORK! My God, the wasted potential here is staggering. Victoria, you deserved a much better season than the one we got.

On a positive note, I will say I admire Eric’s decision to NOT clean himself up at Ponderosa. Helps him stand out, and is a nice, respectful touch.

So, this means we get a segment with Probst detailing Victoria’s game, and hopes for the future, right? Silly viewer! Those are for who PRODUCTION cares about, not who you care about!

Getting back to camp, Rick of course foolishly sets out to look for an idol. I say “foolishly” because of course, after the backlash that the fire-making final four twist from “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers” received, they have moved back when regular idols work to the final six, leaving only Chris’ as a legitimate idol left. Then you remember that this is “Survivor Edge of Extinction” where everything you love goes to die! Instead, Rick finds yet ANOTHER idol, thus guaranteeing himself the final four. If, at this point, you think there’s an overabundance of idols for so late in the game, you’re right! Look, I give the producers more slack on the “Advantagegeddon” even on “Survivor Game Changers” than most. While I agree that season overall was too twist-heavy, that particular event I say was more due to the contestants then having balls of steel to hold their idols and advantages so long. But putting in new idols when there’s only one legitimate vote left in the game? That’s just too much. I will never be a fan of the fire-making final four happening automatically, but if you give us one vote with no possible idols, it becomes much more tolerable.

Not content with having TWO hidden immunity idols in the game, Rick now decides he needs FAKE idols in the game as well. He hides a pair of them (with notes from his previous idols for legitimacy), which Lauren and Julie, having learned from their previous efforts of NOT following Rick, find. Rick proves just how much of the high ground he’s taking by laughing obnoxiously behind their backs as they make these efforts. Our hero, everybody.

Our second immunity challenge is your standard ropes obstacle course with little fanfare, though putting it over water was a nice touch. Rick wins, rendering his idol DOUBLY pointless, but making for an interesting situation back at camp. You see, everyone BUT Gavin thinks they’re safe. Preying on this, Rick suggest that he’ll play his idol on Gavin if Gavin votes with them. Gavin, not being a moron, jumps at the chance. But who should they target. The debate, by default, is between Julie and Lauren. Lauren’s played a more dominant game in their eyes, while Julie might have more friends on the jury. The answer, however, is quite obvious to me. Julie must go. Yes, Lauren has a stronger game overall, but it’s not one necessarily respected by the jury. Who the jury wants to win is the biggest factor at this point, making Julie a threat. Moreover, Lauren, being original Manu, is more likely to help one or both of you out at the final four, whereas Julie is not likely to at all. Better to get rid of her.

Our second Tribal Council is just as “nothing” as the first, save for that for once people make the stupid decision. After Lauren and Julie get needlessly humiliated with the fake idols (not that I don’t think Rick shouldn’t have made them, as they did help throw the scent off of him, but the laughter was needless), Lauren gets sent home. Again, I’m sorry to see her go. While not the same level as Victoria, she had a determination I liked, and again, was probably the best non-Rick strategist left in the game. Losing her loses a lot of investment in the season, and another good player to boot.

Our final immunity challenge is the now standard “Stack blocks to make a phrase” challenge, though this one does up the game a bit by having contestants walk along an arced board while still holding the platform steady. Much as I despise this challenge for being repetitive at this point, that is a pretty clever way to shake things up. Gavin and Rick make basically no headway, so our battle comes down to Julie and Chris. Julie is overall faster, but also messes up, handing Chris an easy victory. Meaning yes, someone who was voted out of the game just over a week in, and who will have played less than two weeks total, just made the finals. I’m sure this will in no way backfire on the show whatsoever!

Chris, of course, now has to choose who will be going to fire making. He tries to play things cool with Rick, but Rick pretty quickly picks up on the fact that Chris doesn’t want him in the finals, and so goes to make fire. The debate for Chris really comes down to who he thinks can beat Rick in fire making, and he tells as much to Julie and Gavin. He coaches each of them on fire making, but no real conclusion is reached as we head off to Tribal Council.

Soon enough, we see exactly WHY no conclusion was reached: because Chris chose to take a third option. A stupid option, to be sure, but an option nonetheless. You see, Chris has decided to go full Domenick Abbate (“Survivor Ghost Island”), and give up immunity to Julie, allowing him to battle Rick for the right to remain in the game. For some reason, despite giving up immunity, Chris is allowed to choose who goes to fire making. Granted, I don’t think Julie would have chosen differently, but still, you’d think it’d be her choice, given that she now has immunity. Look, I can see the logic here. Like Domenick, Chris doesn’t want to lose votes to another worthy competitor, and so moves to eliminate that chance, at great risk to himself. It is this last part that I take issue with. No matter how much of a jury threat someone is, IT IS NEVER WORTH RISKING YOUR OWN SPOT IN THE GAME FOR THEM! This was Chris’ worst move of the night, and he’s lucky it didn’t backfire on him. Rick goes home, and again, I’m disappointed. A Rick win would have been predictable from the edit, and certainly would have had an asterisk next to it for the whole “Edge of Extinction” twist, but we at least got to see his gameplay, and he would have been an entertaining winner, if nothing else. Instead, we’re left with decent enough players and nice people, but whose stories were weak (Julie, Chris) or nonexistent (Gavin). Joy.

Between segments, we get another Probst interlude, as Rick is popular enough to warrant an interview. It’s less cringe-worthy than Joe’s segment, as really all Probst tries to do is to get Rick to follow in the footsteps of John Cochran (“Survivor South Pacific”), and come work for CBS. Pointless, but nothing annoying about it.

To their credit, all our contestants actually give themselves pretty good arguments about why they should win on this particular day 39. Julie cites her willingness to change up the game, Gavin leans on his social bonds, and Chris notes the effort it took to return from Edge of Extinction. For all my complaints, this is one part the episode actually does well. For a moment, it seems like everyone has a shot.

That is, until we get to Final Tribal Council. Then, Julie at least is shut out. Frankly, of the finalists, she’s probably the one I most wanted to win, due to her arguably actually having an arc. The trouble is, said arc involves Julie acting on her emotions, and while an emotional argument can be powerful, Julie doesn’t demonstrate good control over them, thus making her gameplay come off as erratic and reactionary, rather than controlled and calculated. She’s out, but Chris does himself few favors as well. When Gavin makes a point about his own game at the expense of Chris’, Chris interrupts him to rebut the argument. The jury gets on his case for this, though, citing it as disrespectful. And yet, Chris keeps doing it. True, he does get in good arguments about his social manipulation in the time he had, using Lauren playing her idol as an example of this. Still, that doesn’t mean his interactions with the other finalists come off well. The only person who comes off decently here is Gavin, who manages to articulate his social game nicely, and provide some good, concrete examples. Like with previous uses of this jury format, we do lose those great, defining moments a jury question can provide. The overall Final Tribal Council is sound.

The conclusion, however, is not, and now it is time. We must discuss the sin that ruins the season retroactively. The sin that makes this the worst season of “Survivor” there ever was, purely by default. Our winner, as one might expect, is Chris Underwood.

Where to start with the problems this causes? Well, for one thing, CHRIS WAS VOTED OUT OF THE GAME ON DAY 8! Yes, our winner is a man who so badly bungled a situation, that he was voted out pre-merge. Also bear in mind that he was a physical challenge beast on a tribe that desperately needed challenge strength. For him to be voted out in spite of this speaks volumes about just how badly he bungled his situation. Not only did he bungle his situation, but this also means Chris didn’t need to work nearly as hard as everyone else. While Gavin, Julie, and the other finalists (yes, even Rick to some degree), all had to put themselves at risk, and navigating the social quagmire that is betraying people but still having them like you, all Chris had to do was sit, wait, win one crucial challenge, and not be an asshole. It’s not NOTHING, but compared to what everyone else had to go through, it seems like a lot less, and ought to have disqualified him outright from his victory. This, of course, begs the question of how I would have felt about a Rick victory. I can’t say I would have been fully on board with it, but I wouldn’t have felt like disqualifying Rick quite as much as I do Chris. Rick did get voted out of the game, but unlike Chris, it was less due to his game play, and more due to having the bad luck to end up on a tribe with few options. Rick’s loss was largely due to luck, Chris’ to skill. See the difference? Plus, Rick was in the game the majority of the time, and had to navigate difficult situations, while Chris faced few, if any. Did Chris do nothing? Of course not! His gameplay this episode was masterful, and he’s definitely charming enough to earn a few votes. But think about how this would have looked in previous seasons. Let’s take the case of Hunter Ellis from “Survivor Marquesas”, and man who fills the same roll as Chris, and was voted out at the same point in the game. People loved Hunter at the time, and were shocked at his vote out. Many even advocate for his return. But would you really still love him if, having made no enemies, he was just randomly put back in the game at the end? No. No you wouldn’t. You’d feel production was giving him a leg up because heaven forbid we produce an unsatisfying winner! Ironically, by doing all this, I say production made what could have been a future satisfying winner unsatisfying. I’m glad Chris got the chance to show what he could do, and as I say, he did it well, and there’s nothing offensive about him as a person. But we should have gotten to see these things on a “Second Chances” type season, rather than shoehorning Chris in in the last episode.

But, to be fair, pretty much all of what I’ve vilified is stuff that’s out of Chris’ control. He didn’t ask to be put on an Edge of Extinction season, and made the best of what he had. Besides, however unfair it might be, any twist in the game is legitimate, and you can only play the hand you’re dealt, right? That is correct, and so all of the above, I’m willing to at least consider a counter-argument to. However, even if you were to take away all these problems, one major one still reigns. One question that has no satisfying answer, and is what, by default, makes this the worst season the show has ever put out:

What was the point of having all the episodes this season?

Here’s what I mean: “Survivor”, at its core, is about the journey to the finals. How do our finalists get there, and how do they beat out the other finalists? Some seasons do this better than others. Some seasons make the outcome super obvious. Some seasons subtly manipulate the audience, leading us on a good mystery hunt. Regardless, though, however dominant or just pain good at the game a player is, they still have to go through it. They still have to jump through to hoops so that we can see the progress of their journey. But Chris’ journey largely played out of Edge of Extinction, where even if we DID get footage of it, screen time needed to be divided between everyone else there. Thus, Chris got lost in the shuffle, and we the audience feel like we only really got to know him in this last episode. Again, he played well in that episode, but it still begs the question: If all we needed was this episode, why did we watch all the others?

There was really no season recap this time, nor was there Probst talking about why each remaining player could win. Frankly, I’m happy the latter is gone, since it was kind of forced anyway, but the former can be necessary. After all, more people tend to tune in to the finale of a show, rather than a random episode in the middle. Thus, the recap is needed to understand the journey that brought us to this point. Even the most boring seasons like “Survivor Fiji”, or the most predictable seasons like “Survivor Redemption Island”, there was at least a reason why we needed that journey. Even if we already knew or didn’t care about the outcome, we still needed the guidance of the rest of the season to understand that outcome. Here, someone tuning in for just this episode, even without a season recap, would lose nothing. They could watch it, and get just as much out of it as someone who had followed the entire season. And if 12/13 episodes of your season don’t need to be watched, what was the point of having the season at all?

Now, I hear the counterargument to this already: “Chris did have a story. It was just all on Edge of Extinction. And weren’t you, Matt, one of the ones praising the show for not spending so much time on Edge of Extinction?” You’re right about that, but it doesn’t change the fact that it retroactively makes the season pointless. Of course, we wouldn’t want the show to devote more time to the Edge of Extinction than to people still in the game, but then, if one of those people wins, it feels hollow. The only solution I can really think of to satisfy both worlds would be to have made the segments of “Edge of Extinction” its own show. Have it air right after “Survivor”, and be all about the social dynamics of the Edge of Extinction, with the finale being a kind of crossover between those two shows. Then we might have had time to develop everyone as needed to make a satisfying finale. Now, this would never happen. While “Survivor” has an impressive longevity, it must be said that the heyday of the show is passed, and so CBS is not logically going to devote an entire timeslot to a companion show no one is guaranteed to watch. However, if we’re trying to find a way for this twist to work, this is the only way I can think of. As it stands, this twist is a terrible idea that moves “Survivor” to a point where it isn’t recognizable as “Survivor” any more. Because it is such a different animal, and renders the vast majority of the season as being pointless, there is no logical place for this season to go other than the very bottom of the rankings.

Probably the biggest disappointment of all here, though, is that the season did not have to be this way. Not even close. It’s not like something like the aforementioned “Survivor Fiji”, where the cast mean the season was doomed before they even started filming. This cast had potential. As I said, there were a lot of intriguing new players this time around. But with so much time devoted to returning players, advantages, and the Edge of Extinction itself, they just get shunted aside. Thus, we cannot bond with them, or the season. Really, ALL the players on this season deserved a better season than what they got, and shame on CBS for taking something good and doing everything in their power to ruin it.

Ok, ok, let’s talk about something that actually goes WELL this season: The Reunion show. Still too little time devoted to it, but we talk with most of the important people, get a comment on most everyone, and most importantly, fewer pointless Probst segments. No audience interviews, no kid guessing the obvious winner. Hell, the only former player we see is a brief glimpse of Cochran, and then it’s at a relevant time to mention him. Yeah, I really don’t have any complaints about this particular reunion show, again apart from the length.

As to the upcoming season, it can only be an improvement. If you’re going to bring back returning players with new players, I think keeping the new players out of the competition is the way to do it. They can add flavor to the season this way, but also are less likely to dominate screen time as a result. It’s not a guarantee, so I’m holding my judgment until the season proper, and I am concerned about the lack of new player confessionals in the preview. Plus, getting advice from old players might encourage new players to ape their style, rather than going their own way. Still, there’s potential for good here, and those giant heads are just the kind of cheesy I can get behind, so I’ll give this season a fair shake. Now, onto discussing how my pre-season opinions matched up to reality, starting with:

Dan-Right on personality, wrong on time in the game. He made himself more necessary than I thought he would, and was smarter than I gave him credit for. That said, I count this one as a loss for me.

Reem-Overall right, though she was definitely feistier than I gave her credit for.

Rick-Pretty much right here, though I didn’t call his ending up on Edge of Extinction.

Wendy-Again, pretty well nailed the personality, though she was out earlier than I expected.

Lauren-Despite my saying she had more game than she gets credit for, I still say her personality was on point. Name one thing about her that wasn’t related to Kelley Wentworth. I’ll wait. Oh, and she lasted longer than I would have thought.

Keith-I’m seeing a trend here. Keith is yet another one where I called his personality, but was vastly wrong on his time in the game.

Chris-Wrong. Out earlier than I expected, but also had more game than I expected as well.

Victoria-She made it longer than I guessed, but I’d say I was right overall.

Ron-Wrong. Much more socially aware, and as a result longer-lived, than I ever anticipated.

Julia-Probably the only one on this list where I hit the nail on the head for both personality and time in the game.

Eric-Pretty much right, though I think I gave him too much credit in the “smarts” department.

Aurora-She made herself overall more low-key, at least pre-merge, and so lasted longer than I expert suspected she would. Good for her.

Julie-Wrong. Much less domineering, and much longer-lived than I gave her credit for.

Gavin-A little bit longer-lived than I expected, but Gavin fell pretty close to what I thought otherwise.

Kelley-Right, though as returnees are easier to predict, having seen their previous gameplay, I only consider this a half-win at best.

Joe-Right on vote-out time, wrong on his coming back to win the whole thing.

Aubry-Wrong. I’m not sure how much time is needed for people to think of her more as “Survivor Game Changers” Aubry rather than “Survivor Kaoh Rong” Aubry, but clearly, it’s not enough.

David-Wrong. Dude managed to hang in there better than I expected. How is it people remember Aubry’s (earlier) performance better than David’s?

This would normally be the point where I end the blog. However, loathe though I am to admit it, and however little this season deserves it, it’s time for another:

TOP 5 AND BOTTOM 5

Let’s talk about moves. They need to be made on “Survivor”. Even choosing to not make a move is, in and of itself, making a move. As such, one can usually point to a winner’s moves to explain how they won the game. We’ll be talking about the best actions winners have taken, while also acknowledging those moves that SHOULD have ruined winners games, but they were able to come back from. A couple of ground rules: The move has to be from the season the winner won on. I could vilify Cochran’s flip on “Survivor South Pacific”, but that has no bearing on his win on “Survivor Caramoan”. Second ground rule: It has to be one specific move. Something a winner did overall, such as their social game, isn’t the subject of this list. That said, let’s start with the best of the best, with…

TOP 5

5. Boran Throws the Challenge (“Survivor Africa”): Technically cheating a bit here, since this was a move by a tribe, not just by the winner. However, Ethan seemed to be the one spearheading this move, and it’s my list, so I’ll count it. It was definitely a risk, and I’m normally the first to come out against throwing a challenge, but it cannot be denied that this worked out well for Ethan. It kept his allies on Samburu safe, built trust with T-Bird and Frank, and pretty much decimated any hope of the old Samburu coming back together as a unified whole. Maybe not Ethan’s move alone, but definitely one that helps ensure his victory.

4. Tom Mind-Screws Ian (“Survivor Palau”): At this point in the game, Tom’s only competition was Ian. True, he probably wins the game no matter who he’s against, but it’s much more up in the air against Ian than anyone else. When the plan to oust Ian at the final four goes awry, Tom now has little choice but to duke it out against a younger competitor at an endurance challenge. No mean feat to win. So Tom, to ensure his victory, preys on Ian’s guilt, and gets in his head to the point where Ian gives up, handing Tom victory on that season, and a spot on this list. Again, I keep him low because I think he had it won regardless, but it was a good bit of insurance, just in case.

3. “Please, take this risk.” (“Survivor Vanuatu”): This, frankly, is the reason why Chris Daugherty is a winner. The man had tried and failed multiple times to break up the women, usually at the expense of Eliza. It was only when he had the brainwave to USE Eliza, rather than target her, that finally got him success, and overcome a 6-1 deficit to win. Admittedly, the idea was Scout’s, which is why Chris doesn’t land higher on this list, but without Chris’ salesmanship, it wouldn’t have worked, so he deserves some credit. Also, this means that Chris from this season now hold the distinction of being the second person to win who shares a first name with a previous winner (Natalie White of “Survivor Samoa” and Natalie Anderson of “Survivor San Juan del Sur” being the first pair to do so).

2. “Coach is gunning for you.” (“Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”): Aw yeah, now we get to talk about the awesomeness that is Sandra! For those who say her game was all about doing nothing, this is my counter-argument. She and Courtney Yates, her only ally, were dead in the water. But one simple conversation with Russell Hantz, and suddenly that paranoia makes neither of them a major target. As Sandra doesn’t even make the merge without this move, it’s safe to say it won her the game, as well as a spot on this list.

1. The Buddy System (“Survivor Redemption Island”): Look, I never said this season had no redeeming features. I just said they were drowned in a sea of mediocrity. That said, it cannot be denied that Boston Rob had a good strategy here. By isolating everyone so that his sycophants would never think of flipping, he managed to maintain his iron grip on the tribe, even when up against players better than what he had in the pre-merge. It made the season boring and predictable, but it cannot be denied it was good strategy.

Honorable Mention: J.T.’s Crocodile Tears (“Survivor Tocantins”): You may remember that J.T. gave quite the performance at the “Survivor Tocantins” final tribal council. Acting indignant and hurt at Stephen’s supposed “betrayal”. I even saw some tears there. There’s a reason J.T. was the second shut-out victory in the history of the show, but I keep this off the list proper because I can guarantee that J.T. wins the game even without this. Stephen was respected by the jury, but wasn’t worshipped like J.T. was, so all J.T. did was humiliate Stephen still further. Unnecessary, J.T. “Survivor Cambodia” would do that well enough.

BOTTOM 5

5. Jenna’s Emotional Breakdown (“Survivor The Amazon”): I’ll admit, I’m a bit reluctant to mark someone down for showing emotion on “Survivor”. That said, the fact remains that Jenna’s breakdown at the final five did her no favors. When it’s kind of a coin toss between you and your ally as to who goes home, telling people you’re ready to go is not a good look. I keep it this low on the list because I don’t think Jenna made this as a “move” per se, but not having as good control on the emotions is a mark against a potential winner, as we saw with Julie this season.

4. Sandra Throws Out the Fish (“Survivor Pearl Islands”): Yes, for all that we must praise Sandra for her awesomeness, we must also point out where she messed up. Sabotaging the tribe, especially in the early seasons of the show, was often a death sentence. Moreover, Sandra was doing this out of petty revenge for the betrayal of Rupert, rather than any strategic reasoning. It would be one thing if Sandra had intentionally tried to cover her tracks, but she just got lucky that Christa took the fall. If she hadn’t, Sandra might well have been gone out of sheer frustration from the tribe. Sandra is still awesome, but she’s lucky this move didn’t backfire on her.

3. Final 6 Rock Draw (“Survivor Blood vs. Water”): I keep this one from higher on the list because I see little Tyson could have done in this situation to prevent this, save keep a tighter grip on Ciera. That said, not having your allies in check is a sin even Tyson is not exempt from. This move really could have cost him the game had he drawn the wrong rock. True, the risk was greater for the other alliance (two members drawing rocks as opposed to one), but still, if Tyson draws the wrong rock, that season is never the same. Too much of a risk, so it earns a spot on this list.

2. Mike and the Auction (“Survivor Worlds Apart”): While Tyson’s move had the CHANCE of him going home, I’m AMAZED this didn’t send Mike home. For starters, the idea itself is bad. Going back on a deal YOU YOURSELF suggested makes you look like a dick, especially since it involves messages from home, which are always emotionally charged. No advantage is worth that in a social game like “Survivor”. But then Mike doubles down on the idiocy by then following through on the deal, meaning he gets no upside. People hate you for trying to backstab them publicly, and you don’t even get the advantage you were going for in the first place. It’s only through the grace of immunity that Mike won. This really should have cost him the game.

1. Chris Trusts Wardog (“Survivor Edge of Extinction”): This one’s a no-brainer. The only thing worse than a winner making a move that could POTENTIALLY get them voted off is them making a move that ACTUALLY votes them off. A person who wins despite their mistake costing them their spot in the game is the type of winner I just can’t get behind, if I haven’t already made that clear.

Honorable Mention: MAD (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”): I keep this one off the list proper because the idea was good. Take someone you want as an ally, and share secrets so you both have an incentive to stay aligned. This is what Adam did with Taylor regarding their various advantages (a reward steal for Adam, plus hidden food for Taylor). The flaw here is that Taylor is not exactly playing what we might call a “strategic” game, and thus has no incentive to worry about messing up his own game. Thus, he outs Adam’s deception, and Adam comes off looking the worse for it. I even wrote at the time that Adam had torpedoed his own chances of winning with this move, so it must be talked about here.

At long last, we come to the end of this season, and good riddance. I’ll say it before, and I’ll say it again: everyone involved deserved a better season. We had a cast that, while not the stuff of legend, was definitely solid and could have developed good future returnees. However, a combination of too much focus on the returnees, too many advantages, time taken away for the Edge of Extinction, and a winner who only really showed up in the last episode, means this season doesn’t really even count as “Survivor”. If it must, though, it’s the very bottom of the “Survivor” pile. At least we get a nice long break before the next season. That’ll give us time to get invested again.

But what of this blog during the off-season? Don’t worry, content will still come, but don’t expect the return of “Survivor Retrospectives” yet. Don’t worry, I still intend to finish, but they take a lot of work, and I’m just burnt out on them at the moment. That said, I’ve had a couple of ideas for new blog topics, including one feature I hope to make a regular thing, that I’ll be rolling out over the summer, and I hope you enjoy them.

Let’s end this on a high note. One positive I can say for the season: NO PLAYERS BREAKING INTO MY HOUSE! Yes, the tradition of “Idol Speculation” is finally broken, and no players have busted down my wall insisting on an audience, and closing me a lot in repairs. At last, I can go one season without calling a contractor…

CRASH!

RICK: DUN-DUN-DA-DA-DAH! DUN-DUN-DUN-DUN!

MATT: GAAAAAAAAAAH!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Edge of Extinction” Episode 12: Toy Story

I’ve got idols with me/I’ve got idols with me
Advantages/I’ve got ‘em too
‘Cause Production/Likes me more than you.
When I win/You’ll all be feeling blue
‘Cause I’ve got idols with me!

Well, I’ll give the episode this: It at least gave me the chance to make another song parody. That very few people will get, as I doubt the overlap between “Survivor” fans and “Toy Story” fans is particularly large. Still, it’s a positive, and the episode should take what it can get. It won’t be getting very many compliments for this particular one.

We start off back at camp, with everyone discussing the previous vote-out. Gavin gets a bit of character development talking about his conflict in voting out Ron, but steels himself for future votes. He talks about how Rick is now the big threat who needs to go under any circumstances, thereby ensuring that Rick will stay this episode. He also mentions that Rick gets “All the best toys”, thereby at least giving me title fodder for this blog. Rick tells what at first seems like a pointless lie, claiming that his idol came from someone on the Edge of Extinction, rather than just being one he found. As soon as I wonder about the point of it all, though, Rick justifies himself in confessional, stating that this makes people think idols aren’t hidden around camp, thus preventing others from looking for the re-hidden immunity idol. Pretty good justification, but I’d point out that at least Lauren should be aware that this is bull, since she HAS found idols at camp previously. I’m pretty sure Rick isn’t aware of it, though, and Lauren could be justified in keeping quiet due to not wanting to reveal her idol, so not a bad play on his part.

Rick naturally gets up early and starts idol hunting. Not being quick enough, everyone notes his absence. Aurora talks about wanting Rick out, and rejoices in the fact that she finally has an alliance that seems solid. And with that, we know the outcome of the episode with absolute certainty! Good night, everybody!

Look, I know I rail against too little foreshadowing all the time, but too much can be just as bad. By setting up these obvious storylines SO EARLY in the episode, it just took the tension out of it. This could have been rectified by an interesting journey as to how we got to the outcome, or good character moments, but the journey itself just isn’t interesting. They TRY to give us the latter, but for some reason, with so many people left, it just doesn’t work. Huh. It’s almost like THE GAME ISN’T DESIGNED TO HAVE NEARLY EVERYBODY LEFT AT THE END! MAYBE THIS WAS A HORRIBLE IDEA FROM THE START!

Ok, ok, rant over. I evidently didn’t give Lauren enough credit, as she does call Rick out on his bluff, both to him and everyone else left. She frames it as a “gut feeling”, thus keeping her hidden immunity idol, well, hidden, but it’s well-done nonetheless. I’m all ready to praise Lauren for keeping a good tail on Rick thus preventing him from finding his hidden immunity idol… And then she just up and leaves. Loss of smart-person points, Lauren. Sure enough, the dramatic music tells us Rick finds an idol. At least the episode was QUICK to point out how things wouldn’t go as planned. Rick tries to do his news anchor schtick again, but his giddy enthusiasm boils over, and it just comes across as forced this time. Patience, Rick, patience.

It’s saying something when the best aspect of this episode is the challenge, and not just the challenge, but the REWARD CHALLENGE! My God, we actually get something original in it! True, it’s our same generic obstacle course with digging under a pole and tossing balls onto an arch, but the first leg has players throwing a ball into a ramp, which they must run through some ropes to the other end of. If they catch the ball, it’s good. If not, try again. It’s creative, it works well in the challenge, it keeps things individual! By this season’s standards, it’s gold!

After a four-way race between Gavin, Rick, Aurora, and Victoria, Gavin “wins”. I put this in quotation marks because, although technically victorious, he now has to decide who to offend by not taking them on reward. True, it’s not as bad as when the same thing is done on the family challenge, but still decently bad. Gavin first picks Victoria to take on the picnic with him, which is solid. She’s both his ally, and someone shown to hold a grudge over not being picked, at least according to last episode. But then, Gavin fumbles it with his second pick: Lauren. The others are astounded that Aurora wasn’t picked, and frankly so am I. Both are in Gavin’s alliance at the moment, so it’s not the most illogical pick, but let’s consider the choices. Gavin can take Lauren, the person who’s the only non-Rick original Manu left, and therefore has little option BUT to stick with you, or Aurora, who’s been pretty much a free agent this season, and is KNOWN to hold grudges based on her feelings. Who needs to be coddled more?

After the requisite “Ha Ha, screw you!” helicopter fly-by of camp, we cut to our feast, where Gavin broaches the possibility of Rick being immune. He suggests, should this happen, that Julie get the votes, which makes a certain amount of sense. She’s not much of a threat in any regard at this point, but might have a couple of friends on the jury (Eric, Ron), and was the other person left out. Thus, easy consensus vote. I’m not sure she’s the SMARTEST choice at this juncture, but we’ll get to that. Lauren, however, is again one step ahead, saying privately that she has a bond with Julie (that we’ve never seen before this episode), and might want to try and find another plan. Yep. Same amount of subtlety we’ve come to expect from this episode.

Getting back to camp, Rick does what EVERYONE who finds an idol should do: Make like you’re still searching so no one catches on that you’ve found it. Rick again takes childlike glee in giving everyone the slip, and it’s here we learn the TRUE lesson of the episode: Lauren is Satan. Yes, you heard me right, Satan. Only the Lord of Darkness himself could dislike the game of “Hide and Seek”. It’s the best childhood game ever. Shame on you for disliking it, Lauren!

Oh good, the Edge of Extinction. So nice to see you after missing you last episode. It wasn’t long enough.

Ok, ok, I’ll be fair to the Edge of Extinction. It actually had kind of a fun idea this time around. Rather than looking for an advantage, those on the Edge of Extinction get to read notes they wrote to themselves prior to the beginning of the game. This is something we’ve never seen before, but it fits really well here, giving everyone a chance to look back on their journey, reflect on how far they still have to go, and talk about how they’ve grown as people. At least, that’s what SHOULD have happened, but it seems the overcrowding from the Edge of Extinction is now affecting even those on the Edge of Extinction. Rather than hearing excerpts from each person’s note, we get a montage. In some cases, where we get a bit of content from the person in question, it really works. Julia and Reem are prime examples of this. But most everyone else? It goes by too fast to build an emotional connection, and we’re just left wondering why we had to have this at all, if it’s relatively pointless?

Moving on to our immunity challenge, which is that “Slide tiles and carry them over balance things to solve a word puzzle” challenge, first seen on “Survivor Worlds Apart”. Probst claims it’s a common backyard game. I don’t know what backyards are like in Texas, but I’ve never seen a game even CLOSE to this anywhere but “Survivor”. If there’s something I’m missing, please enlighten me. It’s your standard dull, reused challenge, and yes, I realize that statement is redundant. I can at least say that the puzzle solution is good. “Not Living on the Edge tonight”. Fits with the season, but not completely obvious.

Surprising no one with a functioning brain, Rick wins, after Probst gives a fairly subtle hint to get people to the word “Tonight”. Julie, recognizing that she’s probably in trouble, makes a show about going off to talk with Rick. The pair decide to target Aurora, because as mentioned, she’s kind of the default target at this point for any alliance. Speculating on who they can get to help them out, Julie mentions her “bond” with Lauren that, as mentioned previously, was not brought up prior to this episode. Still, Lauren is open to the idea, and discusses with Gavin the possibility. Gavin is less closed off than he was to getting out Ron last episode, indicating that he’ll probably go along with the plan, but he wants Victoria in on it. In case Lauren wasn’t obvious enough, she keeps hinting how she’s willing to go with just Gavin, and they don’t need Victoria. Victoria, not being an idiot, realizes this means Lauren probably wants to go to the end with Julie, and thus getting out Julie might be a better bet. Victoria keeps herself open to the possibilities, though, as she should. As to which one she should go for, the answer right now is clearly Aurora. As mentioned, she’s more of a challenge threat, but also think about the Edge of Extinction. Whoever comes back next episode, they’re likely to have an uphill battle, since almost no one left would want to work with them. Aurora, as a relatively free agent, is a godsend to them. Thus, you get her out, whoever comes back has little foothold, barring another game-breaking advantage. This is only the right move for now, though, as we shall see soon at Tribal Council.

Talk at Tribal Council is pretty much all about how Rick is the one everyone wants out, and it sucks that he won. This leads Rick to try and get back at everyone, pulling out his hidden immunity idol and saying he’ll play it for Julie. I’m not buying it. Unless the idol expires at this Tribal Council (which, admittedly, it might), there’s no reason for Rick to risk it when in all likelihood Julie joins in voting him out should he not win the next immunity. What this DOES do is incentivize others to vote for Julie. Yeah, for all the good points voting for Aurora has, a chance to flush an idol trumps them. Rick, unfortunately, finds himself in the position of the “Three Amigos” on “Survivor Caramoan”, as by unveiling an idol, he now has to play it, or risk losing an ally. It’s too easy a bluff to call.

Evidently calling an easy bluff is too much for this cast. Aurora is predictably sent home, and I’m kind of sorry. Both she and Julie would be losses to this season, but Aurora was the slightly bigger character, and more intriguing, as she rarely had a formal alliance. She goes out with class, though still swearing vengeance against Rick. Vengeance she might get as she, like everyone else, heads to the Edge of Extinction. Ok, while I’m HAPPY no one just gave up on the game, it’s still annoying that we had to see the non-dilemma every time. After Keith, nothing could compare.

In case it wasn’t clear, I am not partial to this episode. It was predictable, and gave us nothing in return. Thus boring, lame, and with little to do but write song parodies about it. Let’s hope this downward trend doesn’t continue into the finale.

Speaking of which, this is normally where I’d talk about those who are left, and their odds of winning the game, should they get to the end. Well, I’m not doing that this season, mainly because we don’t know who all is coming back from the Edge of Extinction. To give you my general thoughts, those coming back from the Edge of Extinction have the best chance of winning in the end, but the hardest time getting there. Then there’s everyone else, who seem like nice enough people, but cluster in their ball of blandness to not stand out at all. Instead, let’s live up to the “Speculation” part of this blog’s name, as I give you:

MATT’S TOP 5 PEOPLE WHO MIGHT COME BACK FROM THE EDGE OF EXTINCTION!

Yes, this will not be a proper “Top 5 and Bottom 5” but will follow the format of one. Now that we’ve finalized who all has a shot to come back, let’s discuss the people I think have the best odds, based both of edit and on challenge performance. We begin with…

5. Chris-Maybe a bit of a stretch, but Chris has been presented as a challenge beast from the beginning, and he nails the editing part of it as well. We’ve seen a fair amount of Chris after his exit, which is partly due to his length of time on the Edge of Extinction, but he’s gotten a lot of confessionals about his “Perfect Game” failure, which seems like a story to be set up for the finale. However, Chris only gets number five, because I would have put him much higher before tonight. The trouble is that I feel like his note scene may have wrapped up his story arc, and may spell doom for the man come the challenge.

4. Joe-Yeah, it wasn’t going to be a list about challenges without Joey Amazing showing up SOMEWHERE. If this list were based purely on challenge ability, he wins hands down. Joe is favored to win most challenges, and things like a ropes course, which we know will be in the challenge, are right up his alley. So, why is he only number four? Well, as I said before, I’m counting edit here as well, and have we heard from Joe at all since his boot episode? That’s what I thought. That severely decreases his odds, though challenge performance alone is enough to keep him on the list.

3. David-Out of all the returnees, David’s is the only one whose exit didn’t feel satisfying. Aubry and Kelley both got done in by their hubris, and Joe just underestimated his opponents. All flaws that we can understand. David? Just bad luck with the numbers, and that just feels unsatisfying for a returnee. Add onto that returnees being favored in most challenges due to greater familiarity, and this challenge favoring the tiny, and I think David’s got a decent shot at returning. If we’d heard from him more after his boot, he’d probably be number one.

2. Aurora-Aurora has what we might call “Andrea Boehlke Upside” from “Survivor Redemption Island”. A tough challenge competitor voted out close enough to the end that she has more energy than most of her opponents, and again, coming into a challenge that plays to her strengths. Her comment about getting Rick out also strikes me as potentially prophetic, so I’d give her pretty good odds of returning overall.

1. Aubry-Perhaps this is just wishful thinking on my part, since I love Aubry as a player and want her to do well on this season, but I keep coming back to a couple of things that make me see her as the returnee from the twist. She has returning player upside, to be sure, but we also saw a decent amount of her well beyond her boot episode. Granted, we’ve seen pretty much nothing of her these last few episodes, but since most of our time is just devoted to the newest person on the island, that’s unsurprising. Two things come back to me that make me favor Aubry. One is the chance to practice the challenge. It not only gives her an edge physically, but an edge psychologically, as she won’t be as shocked as the others by the challenge itself. The other is the “Aubry is out for blood” comment from the first “Back from Edge of Extinction” challenge. While Aubry’s story FELT like it concluded with her exit, this opened it back up again, and I feel it needs to be resolved, which it can only do if Aubry comes back.

Honorable Mention: Reem-Going purely on confessionals, Reem would be the person to re-enter the game. She’s been the most consistent narrator of the Edge of Extinction, and on a certain level, it would be poetic justice for the first boot to re-enter the game. That said, this challenge doesn’t particularly favor Reem, and her confessional count seems more due to her giving a great confessional than hinting at a return. Still would be fun, though.

So, what do you all think? Who’s going to come back from Edge of Extinction? Let me know your GUESS in the comments below. Spoilers will not be approved, and will be afforded a special level of hell, along with those people who talk in the theater.

That said, you’re going to have to wait for your weekly dose of “Idol Speculation” next week. As previously mentioned, I have a new job, meaning I don’t have vacation yet, and can’t call off of work following the finale. This means I can’t stay up to write the blog and still go to work, so it will have to wait for the afternoon after. I swear to not read any blogs or take in any new opinions until I get mine down on data. See you when that happens!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Edge of Extinction” Episode 11: The Wild Devans in its Natural Habitat

On tonight’s episode of “Survivor”, we will be forgoing the game to bring you more educational content. Our subject for this evening: Rick Devans. Formerly a species on the edge of extinction, a difficult breeding program has allowed it to be reintroduced into the environment. Despite many threats from predators, it now thrives, using its unique talents to save itself from destruction.

Skipping out on the “Previously On…” segment once again, we jump straight to damage control. Specifically, damage control on Rick, since he’s about the only person left out of the loop after the previous vote. You can tell that Rick is ANGRY in the confessionals, but his anger is directed specifically at Ron, who has now lied to Rick twice. Naturally, this makes Ron the BEST possible choice to calm down Rick. To be fair, Rick actually does a spectacular job of hiding his anger outside of confessional, and Ron does have one advantage in winning back Rick. Specifically, he has the expired advantage menu, which he gives to Rick as a sign of trust. Presumably he cut off the expiration date so that Rick can’t tell that it’s a fake from just looking at it, but the suspiciousness of the scenario alone, coupled with Rick needing to state what advantage he uses pre Tribal Council (or at least, so I assumed at the time), should clue Rick in instantly. Rick, however, seems to overall fall for it, calling it his bargaining chip. That said, Rick doesn’t immediately fully trust Ron or the advantage, however, so point for him in that respect.

Moving right along, we get our loved one’s challenge, but more importantly we get an ACTUAL INDIVIDUAL CHALLENGE POST-MERGE! STARS BE PRAISED, WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME TOUGH CHOICES BEING MADE, AND AN EXCITING CHALLENGE THAT CAN ONLY BE DONE IN THIS PHASE OF THE GAME! Since the challenge is clearly the most important part here, let me briefly address how it works. One member of a player/loved one pair will run to the water, collecting it in a bucket. They will then toss that water at another bucket, held by their loved one, who dump it into yet another bucket, trying to weigh it down enough to raise a flag, the first one to do so winning a picnic lunch at camp, because you know, this challenge didn’t piss people off enough if they don’t win. You just had to rub it in their faces afterward as well. As Probst correctly mentions, this specific challenge hails from “Survivor Heroes vs Villains”. You may remember it as that one challenge where Colby (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) went apeshit on his brother, despite Colby himself not exactly being a challenge god that season. That moment will be hard to top, but I will say that I overall like this version of the challenge better, due to one simple change: The players now do the running instead of the loved ones. While I do like that this challenge hinges less on strength and more on throwing technique, it’s better to have the players we’ve spent time bonding with (or at least SHOULD have been bonding with were it not for pointless, time-wasting twists) doing the more active part of the challenge. Keeps us more invested.

The majority of our loved ones here are nothing more than your mildly touching reunion, but there are a few worth commenting on. First off, we have Ron’s husband, Lloyd. Ron, my man, you have done well for yourself. I’m straight, but that is a damn handsome man! Second of all, this is the first time I believe Ron’s sexuality has actually been brought up on the show. Don’t misunderstand me here: Long gone are the days when “The Gay Guy” was used as a marketing technique for the show, but not bringing it up at all until it becomes relevant (as opposed to someone like Aurora, whose sexuality WAS brought up before now, if not emphasized) shows a maturity that makes me still like the show, even to this day. It’s also nice to see that non-straight sexualities are being more and more normalized in mainstream media, especially since it’s come to my attention that BOTH kisses between Ami, Scout, and their partners were censored from “Survivor Vanuatu”. Particularly hypocritical when you consider they showed Rupert and Laura Boneham trying to eat each other on the previous season. Second is Victoria’s father, Troyzan (“Survivor One World”). Wow, really? Four returnees just wasn’t enough? Seriously, give that guy longer hair, and he’s Troyzan, no questions asked. But of course, the real show stopper here is Gavin, where we’re reminded yet again that he left his wife TWO FREAKING DAYS after marriage to go play “Survivor”. If there isn’t a medal for what this woman’s going through, there should be. Few things take precedence over “Survivor” in my book, but a new marriage is definitely one of them. Predictable, since this story was well-publicized pre-season, but still emotionally impactful nonetheless.

Oh, and I was also pleased to see so many married couples on this time, since “Survivor” especially in recent seasons, loves to cast singles in the hope of a showmance. This is hardly the most married players we’ve had left in the game at this point. I believe “Survivor Thailand” still holds that honor, with 6 out of 7 players being married, but still, this season is no slouch in that department.

Ron wins, and is of course faced with the choice of who to take with him on reward, and by extension, who to leave pissed off back at camp. Ron chooses to take Julie and Gavin with him on reward, which I can’t fault, despite what we’ll see later. Ron is in the power position, but unlike some other seasons, it’s pretty clear who he’s with and who he’s not with. His core foursome is himself, Julie, Gavin, and Victoria, with Rick as a side thing, but he doesn’t want to make that too obvious. Lauren and Aurora. Not needed, and given that display Gavin pulled, I think Ron has a pretty well built-in excuse for why he chose Gavin over someone else. I don’t even buy it when Victoria talks about how this was a mistake for Ron. She says the words but her heart’s just not in it. Clearly she’s ok, and is just playing it up for the show.

We get sweet moments between Gavin, Julie, and their loved ones at the picnic, but the one that takes the cake here is Ron. He does what all us fans would do in his position: Brag to the loved one about all the awesome stuff we’ve done in the game so far. Ron of course rhapsodizes about his strategic accomplishments, and how he’s been able to play both sides, and have everyone wrapped around his fingers, and good lord, the hubris is so thick you could cut it with a knife here! Why, Ron even talks about how taking Gavin was pure strategy, and no emotion. Just when you thought we might actually have a nuanced character here!

Finishing up, we return to camp, where Devans is conspicuous by his absence, being out looking for an idol instead. Intent on flushing such a possible idol, those at the camp, and Aurora in particular, set to looking through Rick’s bag. A sudden return and call-out by Rick puts their plan on hold, but Rick is not one to let this lie. He continues to comment about how awkward the whole situation is, hoping the shame and awkwardness will sway the camp against Aurora. This was a solid plan… 35 seasons ago. The trouble for Rick is that searching through someone else’s bag has lost what little stigma it once had, and now is just “You were dumb enough to leave something important in your bag, so shame on you.”. Thus, Aurora has every right to feel fine with having done so. Rick projects awkwardness onto her simply because awkwardness is Rick’s natural state of being.

Still, there is some good to be said for Rick here. After putting a bug in Ron’s ear about Aurora’s behavior, which is about as consequential as you’d expect, he decides to lean into the narrative written for him, and be brazen in his search for an idol. He eventually finds a clue, telling him the idol is hidden in the rafters of the shelter. I will give credit that at least THIS idol takes more than just getting people out of camp to get. Something like the idol Kelley Wentworth found (the second one) on “Survivor Cambodia” was easily grabbed in 30 seconds, and only needed patience for the opportune moment. Here, you have to climb a tree for the idol thus taking up more time and effort than some other idols. Rick initially wants to go full Mike Holloway (“Survivor Worlds Apart”), and just go for it out in the open, but his better instincts take over, and he waits for the cover of darkness. Surprisingly, no one bothers to check on the loud sounds of Rick Devans climbing a tree in the dead of night, and thus he gets away with it. Good for him.

Actually, for all my snark, Rick really is playing the “Mike Holloway” game at this point. Everyone’s out to get him, no one’s making it a secret, and so he’s just being blatantly funny and crazy because why not at that point?

Naturally, with two great challenges in a row, counting the immunity challenge from last episode, our fun exponentially increases with the greatest challenge yet! A spectacular contest, to be immortalized in the annals of “Survivor” History as… Yeah, it’s yet another bland endurance challenge. Specifically, it’s the one about supporting yourself in a box from “Survivor Fiji”. We don’t even get any mystery that the challenge will matter, with Rick being the first one out. Gavin ultimately wins, but it matters little in the grand scheme of things. No one will talk to Rick prior to Tribal Council, with Ron and Julie only making what could be best described as a token effort at doing so. As such, it is pretty much guaranteed that Rick is safe tonight. Thus, we need alternate plans. Ron and Julie discuss actually going for Aurora, but again, not buying it. Too little enthusiasm, and too predictable a plotline. However, it seems Victoria was indeed a bit more pissed that she initially let on. With both her and Lauren correctly predicting that Rick might play an idol, they decide they don’t want anyone else dictating who goes home. They decide on Ron, which by and large makes sense, since Ron’s the power player, and arguably the frontrunner to win at this point, outside of Rick. Less good is their idea to float this to Gavin. Apart from feeling indebted to Ron after the reward challenge, Gavin is not sure getting Ron out at this juncture is a good idea. And for him, it isn’t. Gavin is clearly a member of the majority at this point, and one with some influence, but not so much as to be the main target when insurrection comes. Almost the ideal position: To be seen as helping with moves, while not taking blame for the fallout. A sweet deal, to be sure, and one not to be given up lightly.

Aurora, therefore, tries to sweeten the pot. Wanting her extra vote to be used, as this is the last night it can be used, she gives it to Gavin, since, as he’s immune, he could use it on the revote as well. Ok, that logic I get, but Aurora, you act like you’ll get credit for this. You won’t. Gavin will. Yes, it’s good to avoid being voted out with an unused advantage, but how is this in ANY WAY helping your game. At least it does a good job making things more exciting as we head off to Tribal Council, good gameplay or not.

It is quickly topped, however, by Rick leading us into Tribal Council with a fake news headline about his impending fate. I would give you a blow-by-blow of what he says, but I’m too busy being pissed that this could have been the lead-in to EVERY Tribal Council, and we haven’t got it yet. For shame, CBS!

Without a doubt, this is one of the most blunt Tribal Councils I’ve seen in quite some time. Everyone makes no secret of Rick going, and while it looses some of the intrigue as a result, it does make up for it in sheer gumption. You can’t help but watch fascinated as everyone makes it clear who they intend to vote for. Unsurprisingly, this causes Rick to play first the expired advantage menu. Not one to let an opportunity like this lie, Rick calls out Ron and Julie on this, thus making them look bad, and giving Rick options for his future. How does he stick around? Well, despite my thought that playing a fake advantage might prevent playing real ones at the same Tribal Council, to prevent the flushing of fake advantages, Rick is allowed to play his actual immunity idol. Even THEN, though, Rick cannot be on the proper side of the vote. His vote for Aurora pales in comparison to the three votes Ron gets (one from Lauren, two from Gavin, using Aurora’s advantage), thus sealing his fate. He takes it with good grace, but I’ve got mixed feelings on Ron leaving. I never connected with him much as a character before this episode, and with all that hubris, he did kind of deserve it. That said, Ron was a major driver of strategy this season, and I feel the caliber may go down as a result of his exit.

That said, the caliber of the season continues to go up. Despite the poor misdirection, this episode did a fantastic job of showing us the ins and outs of this group of contestants, the loved ones brought needed emotion, and overall we got some really good gameplay from pretty much all of our parties. Say, you know what was missing in this episode? Why the Edge of Extinction of course! When we stop spending our time with the people who already lost, we can actually LIKE and BOND WITH this group of players! Who would have guessed?

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Edge of Extinction” Episode 10: Twist on the Outcasts

With the returnees out of the game proper (Edge of Extinction notwithstanding), now is the time for our new players to establish themselves as characters in their own right. That said, Gavin, while I enjoyed the “Pokemon” reference with “Smell ‘ya later!”, that’s not the way to do it. It just makes you seem like a derivative, lukewarm Gary Oak. I applaud the effort, but for now, the most interesting thing about you remains your pineapple shirt.

Speaking of Gavin, he’s first on our list of “Damage Control” tonight. Gavin is rightly pissed about being left out of the vote, but manages to keep his temper under control. The worst you can say is that he was slightly whiny when telling Wardog he just wanted to be included in the majority. Now, will Wardog continue his character development, or will he regress and be an ass about all of this? Well, you tell me: Which one’s funnier? Yes, the enigma that is Wardog continues, as despite handling previous situations well, here he’s fairly dismissive of Gavin, and doesn’t really address his concerns or do anything to bring Gavin back into the fold. Wardog’s done worse jobs, but the damage is done overall. Gavin now is out for blood. Wardog blood.

Our next damage control, predictably, comes from Ron towards Julie. However, despite Ron being so worried last episode about Julie’s reaction, she’s actually quite chill about the whole thing. Dare I say, she was downright pleasant about the whole thing! She assures Ron that everything’s ok, and that she understands why she did it. The pair reaffirm the need to move forward, and we pick up our jaws off the floor after Julie, she of the emotional reaction, controlling her emotions. Hmm. Character development for Julie, or simply reacting based on her mood? You decide!

The next morning, the time comes to sort some order from this chaos. We need a new majority alliance, and Rick and Wardog come to deliver. The pair talk with Ron about how the women will see them all as threats, and vote them out to build their resumes. They say the only way the threesome can have a chance at getting to the end is to stick together, voting out Aurora next since at this point she’s just the default target of any new alliance. Slightly sexist, and I think these guys are underestimating the skills of some of the women (Victoria and Julie in particular), but there’s a logic to their pitch, and at least some evidence to support it. Ron brags to the came about how he’s in the middle of all alliances and can go any way, and the fact that no one but his has caught onto this speaks volumes about his skill in the game.

Why, is that a reward challenge post-merge? It must be a team challenge! Yes, our teams of four break up into pairs. Two do the “Keel-Haul” challenge first seen on “Survivor Pearl Islands”, retrieving rings along the way. Our other pair then hurl said rings into posts to win a spa day. It’s as generic as they come, and not at all exciting. For one thing, they toned down the difficulty considerably. In previous iterations of the “Keel-Haul” challenge, coming up in the middle of the structure either disqualified you, or required you to go back to start. Here, it’s just a “You’re taking time catching your breath.” thing, and it’s not nearly as exciting. Secondly, our teams our very uneven, to the point that there’s no mystery about the challenge. Our blue team consists of Wardog, Lauren, Julie, and Rick, while our yellow team consists of Ron, Gavin, Aurora, and Victoria. Not only did yellow get all the challenge beasts, with Aurora’s performance in the challenge being highlighted by Probst, but the blue team got Wardog. With no puzzle to balance things out, since Rick is probably the best puzzle solver left, they’re pretty much doomed.

Or not, it would seem. Evidently Rick moonlights as one of those jerks at carnivals who make those rigged games look easy, as he almost effortlessly hits three rings to win reward for his team. Rather than celebrate, however, we cut over to Edge of Extinction. Kelley is of course the focus, but for once she’s not talking about how Edge of Extinction sucks. Rather, she’s talking about her personal “journey”, of accepting mistakes and failing to build connections. A confessional that would be particularly touching IF WE HAD FOLLOWED THIS JOURNEY FROM THE GET-GO! Yes, it got pain lip service to once in a blue moon, but overall, Kelley’s journey hasn’t been clear, and this kills any emotional connection this might have built. Chalk up another opportunity lost to this godforsaken twist.

Say, you know what we haven’t had in a while? Reem getting mad at people! Showing once again that she fails to comprehend why she was voted out, much less make any changes to correct it, Reem goes into Kelley, sending her off to the mast to have a good cry. This whole scene manages to hit the sweet spot of being mean enough to be uncomfortable, but not being so mean that it’s entertainingly uncomfortable. The result is that nothing much comes of it, and Edge of Extinction wastes our time once again.

Ron is making the best out of losing by saying it gives him a chance to talk to Gavin, Victoria, and Aurora about strategy. I’d point out that you could do this just as easily on reward, but who am I to harsh his mellow? Despite earlier being against Wardog, the foursome now identify Rick as the next biggest target, and swear to get him out. Now, how is Rick a target, you may ask? Initially they make him out as a challenge threat, but again, while I’d argue he’s a puzzle threat, he’s not as much a challenge threat overall. However, they then argue that he’s a jury threat whom everyone loves, which is more up Rick’s alley. This, however, brings up an interesting comparison. To all but the most uncultured, Edge of Extinction is obviously just the “Outcast” twist from “Survivor Pearl Islands” on steroids. There are some differences, but they’re overall minor. Thus, you expect this season to go down much the way that twist did. One big difference, though, is that the outcasts were vilified on their season, being seen as having “not played the game”, and being inherently less deserving of winning than those who had never been voted out. Here, Rick is not only not vilified, but his return from Edge of Extinction is even seen as something of a positive in terms of winning the game. So, why might we get two separate reactions from the same twist. Gut instinct might point to us knowing this time that the returning player from vote oblivion actually did suffer and starve like everyone else. That doesn’t hold, however, as apart from Rick’s word, which is worth just as much as Burton’s and Lill’s were on “Survivor Pearl Islands”, the contestants have no way of knowing this. As such, it must be something else. Rick’s charm is definitely a factor, but I don’t think that alone is enough to overcome this twist. Thus, I see two possibilities as to why the twist seems better received by the players this time. One is pretty straightforward: It’s season 38. A greater emphasis on resume building, coupled with people in general playing less overtly-emotional games, means people are less likely to be personally hurt by someone coming back, and thus less likely to hold it against them. The other, more intriguing possibility, is that people DO resent the person coming back, and think them less deserving, but just aren’t showing it. You see, the one big difference between this and the “Outcast” twist is that the outcasts only had one opportunity to get back in the game. Everyone else afterward was just voted out as normal. Here, however, people voted out KNOW they can get a second chance at the game. Therefore, to vilify the person returning from the Edge of Extinction, is to vilify themselves should they get back in the game after being voted out. No one wants to take that risk, so they keep their real thoughts to themselves. In the end, though, they’ll be forced to show those feelings. Really, the only way we’ll know for sure how they feel is Final Tribal Council, if there’s a player who went to Edge of Extinction there. If the reason is the former, they’ll be praised for overcoming obstacles. If it’s the latter, they’ll be asked “Why should I vote for you when you got outwitted?” or some variation therein. Doubtful we’ll get that specific of a scenario, but it’ll be interesting if it does happen.

Ah, rice. Ubiquitous to “Survivor” at this point, it is so often the subject of contention, due to being so central to camp life. Thus is the case here. Especially with such a large group of people, rationing is essential. That said, no one really wants to be in charge of the rationing, since it can lead you to seem bossy and controlling. Aurora, naturally, is in charge of the rice distribution, and verbally slaps Ron down for wanting to make a large portion while everyone’s away. Without knowing how much rice they have, it’s hard to make a call here, but the rice itself is not really important. What is important is Ron first giving back Aurora’s advantage, he says to buy her loyalty, but also implies that he’d look like a jerk to a potential juror if he didn’t, the second that while Aurora trusts him, he’s not sure he can work with her long-term, thus setting up some misdirection for the episode.

Meanwhile, our winners are having good fun at the reward. I would say “clean fun”, but they’re slathering themselves in mud, so yeah. Rick and Wardog just seem to be having a good time, but Julie and Lauren talk some strategy. Lauren is, of course, upset over the blindside of Kelley last episode, but also is now adrift and needs an ally. Thankfully, Julie is on the market to bring someone into the “Herself and Ron” fold. She and Lauren talk girl talk, by which I mean they discuss which guy they want out first. Julie favors Wardog, while Lauren favors rick, presumably because she has more connections to Wardog than to Rick. No agreement is reached, but the two do seem to want to work together, so another cog is in place.

Our immunity challenge today is NOT an endurance challenge, thereby making it the best individual immunity challenge thus far. As to the specifics, it’s mostly your bog-standard obstacle course, with contestants picking up pointless buoys along the way, leading to a 3-D star puzzle. I do like how you can’t necessarily tell is a piece is right or not in the puzzle, but apart from that, nothing much to recommend this challenge.

As this challenge has a puzzle, Rick is favored to win it. Win he does, though the editing gets clever and shows us one of his failures before we get into his success. Normally, the taking out of one major target could be a problem, but as both Aurora and Wardog were targeted before it makes a good bit of sense here.

Wardog, of course, sets out to rally the troops to his side. Even he admits that he’s a better choice to vote out than Aurora (debatable, as I’ll get to), but that he’s banking on everyone being “stupid” tonight. This honestly is the first thing we’ve seen that makes me think Wardog will go. Bland though this season might be, by and large people have made the smart decision each and every time. This implies that, if Wardog is the smart decision, then he’ll go, since that’s what’s been happening. Plus he’s underestimating his opponents, and that’s never good.

But is Wardog the smart decision? Depends on who you ask. Ron is one of our swing votes tonight, framing the debate as going between the group of Gavin, Aurora, and Victoria versus the group of Wardog and Rick. Between those two groups, it is smarter for Ron to stick with the former. Yes, the threat argument is there, but Ron’s proven that he can control the former group, and overall has greater influence and more options that way. With the latter? Fewer options and a hard time influencing anything. The debate is a bit more of a gray area for our second swing vote, Lauren. She indicates that she’s leaning towards Aurora, which is the correct move for her. Similar to Ron, keeping Wardog in the game gives her more options, where she doesn’t have much of a relationship with Aurora.

Who do I think is going home? Aurora. While Wardog is something of a threat, the momentum to get him out doesn’t seem to be there. Conversely, Aurora’s been the target for a while now, and eventually there’s just a frustration that the one target never goes home, and you get them out just to scratch that itch. Plus, all swing votes talk about her ouster with a lot more enthusiasm than Wardog’s. “Stupid” comment aside, Aurora seems the clear target. Good attempt at misdirection, show, but it’s not working this time.

Tribal Council at first seems like it’s going to be another exciting fireworks show, with Gavin once again going off on Wardog for how he talks to people. Wardog brushes it off, however, and we settle in to poker faces once again, keeping everything reliant on the previously mentioned poor misdirection. Instead, I want to draw attention to the jury, and not just because it was mentioned that people are playing to it tonight. While we only see from a select few people, those we do see are not happy with Wardog. This, to me, implies his jury threat to be overstated. True, he’s made moves, but he hasn’t made them in the nicest way, and I don’t think the jury can respect his moves without respecting him as a person, which they clearly don’t. This makes Aurora, with her potential underdog story, much more threatening in the long term than the abrasive, challenge-poor Wardog. Ron’s best move is still to vote him out, as the reason I outline above has nothing to do with these factors, but Wardog’s threat level just went down several notches, says I.

Not says the tribe, however. It seems the seemingly poor misdirection was itself a misdirection, as once again the smart move is made, and Wardog goes home. Despite not caring much for Wardog, I’m still sorry to see him go over Aurora. Don’t get me wrong, I like Aurora much better as a person, but Wardog was a far more fascinating character. The man could be a savvy player one minute, and a complete lunatic the next. That’s a fascinating dichotomy that Aurora, for all her pluckiness, just can’t match.

This episode is a solid episode of “Survivor”. Not much to make it stand out, but it develops the story of the season, and does its job well with solid misdirection and editing. That said, I do worry that the “Original Kama” thing is taking hold again, as only Lauren and Rick remain of the original Manu, and so this season may be boring yet.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Edge of Extinction” Episode 9: Meta-Forced

I get it, “Survivor” contestants. Really, I do. People have many goals in coming on the show, and for all, being remembered is one major goal. A good way to do that? Make a clever metaphor for the current state of the game. By all means, take your shots in this regard. But if a metaphor isn’t working, let it die! First we had the pilot/passenger thing that unfortunately carried over into this episode, and then the “pushing vs. letting up on the pedal” at the end. They’re not working. Let them die, and try something else. A good metaphor enhances the show, but a forced one, just makes us cringe.

And since I know people are complaining about how “fake”, she is, no, I do not count Aubry comparing the Edge of Extinction to things in this category. Those are similes.

Seems our “Previously On…” segment was just on a short furlough back to the game, as it is conspicuously absent tonight, though I suppose a succinct summary of that last Tribal Council would be hard even for Jeff Probst. Instead, we jump right into the fallout. Ward is pissed; there’s a shock. He blames Aurora for starting the whole thing, and while her comment did start off the debate, I’d be more inclined to blame Julie for fanning the flames. Still, it gets Wardog what he wants, which is a solidified whole. He talks to Ron and Julie about joining up with himself, Lauren, and Kelley, with Gavin brought in as a sixth to make a majority. Wardog, however, has lost some of his sales-pitch mojo. For a group of people needing security after a crazy vote, a solid majority seems appealing. So you frame it as “I’ve got Kelley and Lauren in my pocket, so we can make a six.” Instead, Wardog talks about how loyal he, Kelley, and Lauren are; how they’ve never voted against each other once. Yes, Wardog, please remind us how tight and unbreakable your bond is! I’m sure that’s in now way threatening in a game that is quite chaotic now! It seems hatred of Aurora now outweighs logic, though, as the other three quickly agree to this plan, with Julie in particular being in favor of it.

It seems Wardog sold Aurora short, however, as she’s not as unaware of her position as he claims. True, she still has no idea what happened at that last Tribal Council, but frankly none of us do. She is aware that she’s on the bottom, though, as no one is pulling her aside. She tells us she’ll need to win immunity in order to survive this next vote.

Speaking of which, this brings us to our immunity challenge! Rather early in the episode once again. Rather than herald a crazy Tribal Council, however, it instead heralds the boots of two episodes crammed into one. Because even LESS time to understand what’s going on or bond with the characters is EXACTLY what this season needed! Once again, I don’t understand why they’ve stopped doing this at the tribe phase of the game. It fits better in the overall episode, and can make for some great interpersonal dynamics. Here, it just feels cramped.

Our immunity challenge today is generic endurance challenge number 85. You know it’s reused. You know it’s from a past season. But you’re so numb to them by this point you don’t even care to remember what season it was originally on, because you’re too busy being pissed, since it looked like the raising fire challenge from “Survivor The Australian Outback” come back from the dead. The only true thing of note here is the return of the “eat or compete” twist. Always nice to see back, but even that gets little fanfare. No drama comes of it, we don’t get any dramatic reveal of who chose what, and even the food seems lackluster this time around. I thought you couldn’t make “Survivor” pizza look any more unappealing, but they found a way! Yep, we’re just going to pile it on top of itself so it all mushes together in a big, greasy, disgusting pile. Only starving people would eat that. It seems that Kelley, Lauren, Victoria, and Ron are starving. Makes sense for all of them. Kelley and Lauren have idols, and neither Ron nor Victoria have any reason to believe themselves a target.

At first, it seems like our eaters might not get much of a chance, as people drop out quickly. It comes down to David, Aurora, and Rick. Rick is out first, but gets in a good bit of newsman comedy about how much the challenge sucks. I will say that Rick’s humor is one of the saving graces of this season. It’s sparing, but it’s good when we get it, and I like how the music complimented it in this particular instance. Speaking of the music, it does a good job of building tension once it comes down to David and Aurora, swelling in such a way that it looks like each might fall at some point. Both are targets of some form at this vote, being outside the main alliance we saw form earlier, but for once, our more direct target wins.

Back at camp, our alliance of six reconvenes, where Lauren does a better job than Wardog at selling Ron, Julie, and Gavin on the alliance, talking about how everyone needs a say to come to a consensus, now that Aurora is immune. They quickly focus on David, as an endurance challenge threat and a returnee, and therefore just threatening in general. A logical choice, and for once, Kelley and Lauren don’t ruin it by unsubtly going against it.

Of course, one can’t expect a returnee to go down without a fight. David and Rick decide to target Wardog, on the theory that the “Lesu Three” are a threatening group that need to be broken up, and Wardog is not known for his good bedside manner in general. True, he’s gotten better as time goes by, but still, perhaps an easier sell than Kelley or Lauren at this point. Aurora and Victoria, left out of the majority are of course on board, but Ron and Julie will be a harder sell, particularly Ron, since he was burned a couple of votes ago. Wisely, they decide to talk just to Julie first, presumably playing up her bond with Rick from earlier in the merge. The pair at least give the idea due consideration, admitting that the “Lesu Three” are a threat. Ron is the more concerned of the pair, though, feeling they would have less power if allied with David and Rick, which is also a fair point. For all that the “Lesu Three” are a threat, they have at least done well at giving you the impression that you have a say, even if you actually don’t. On the other hand, with four original Kama in with David and Rick, you could argue that it would be easier to instigate a coup if something goes sideways in that group. Pros and cons to both, and I don’t think there’s really a “bad” choice for Julie and Ron here. Either way, they break up a tight group (the “Lesu Three” or David/Rick), and have some path to save themselves from the group they got with (pulling in outside if they stick with the “Lesu Three” or an original Kama majority if they go with David/Rick). Thus, for me, the better decision comes down to exactly who each side is targeting, and who would be better sent out. As such, I’m going to say that getting rid of David is the better choice here. Apart from having the advantage of experience in the game, thus making him dangerous, he comes across as a challenge threat, at least in terms of endurance. Conversely, the belief that Wardog is a challenge threat of any kind went out the window weeks ago.

Sensing this, David and Rick push the hard sell at Tribal Council tonight. Leaving aside the forced plane metaphors mentioned earlier, Rick starts in by pointing out the threat of the “Lesu Three”. Wardog points out that he’s pushing the hard sell, and Ron concurs that the hard sell doesn’t work. David does a deft job of pushing said claim back onto Wardog, and again leans on his experience, encouraging people to act on “The one conversation they’ll regret” if they don’t follow. A good pitch, and it does leave the good mystery up in the air until the end. Unfortunately, sometimes salesmanship isn’t enough. David goes home, and while I am sorry, I’m also glad. I enjoy David, and don’t like that he never really was able to get his game started. That said, one fewer returnees in the game means we FINALLY have a chance to bond with some new players instead. Now, if only we could get rid of Kelley…

Surprising no one, David heads to the Edge of Extinction. We were spared the “This sucks” confessionals from both himself and Julia this time around, though I suspect this is more due to time constraints than anything. Because when you’ve got extra time on your show, you want to spend it showing the same confessional we’ve seen many times before at this point.

Speaking of things we’ve seen before, it’s message-in-a-bottle time for everyone, telling of an advantage hidden someplace “jagged and smooth” when “you’re feeling hollow”. Some don’t even try to find anything, being too exhausted at this point, but those that do should have an easy time. The clue is obviously referring to a hollow in the rocks. It seems that Eric is even worse than a fool, as he somehow concludes that the clue leads to the rice getting area of the island. Joe and Chris also fall into this category, insisting that the advantage must be around the mast on the beach. Nope. It’s the rocks. Surprisingly, it’s David, the man who knows the island the LEAST well, who finds it. Unfortunately for him, it’s not that great an advantage. Just a challenge boost for someone still in the game. David talks about how this is a chance to curry favor with someone left in the game, and we just roll our eyes, since we all know it’s going to Rick, someone David definitely does NOT need to curry favor with.

Our immunity challenge is actually NOT technically endurance challenge, thus bears talking about. Tribe members roll small balls down to the flat end of a paddle, where they must land them in what Probst refers to as “dimples”. I personally would call them “indents” or “slots” but I guess Probst was feeling insecure, and needed to remind us that he has dimples. Probst, don’t worry. We know they’re there. They’re kind of hard to miss. In any case, the first person to land five balls wins immunity. This is definitely a reused challenge, hailing originally from “Survivor Philippines”, but again, it’s not endurance, so I’ll take it.

Rick reveals the advantage we all knew he had, and Probst tells us that Rick must only land four instead of five of his balls. I do actually like this advantage. It definitely helps, and if you’ve got skill in this challenge, it can be a major benefit to your victory. However, if you outright suck in this challenge, and previous challenge beasts like Kelley and Gavin do this time around, it might not matter. That said, Rick falls into the “Not Sucky” category, and so his victory is all but assured at this point, despite knocking his falls out of their “dimples” a couple of times.

Back at camp, everyone seems on the warpath for Aurora, so we need someone to shake things up. Somewhat surprisingly, given how calm he’s been over the past couple of episodes, Wardog comes to our rescue. His target? Of all people, Kelley. Evidently that anti-returnee bug is back, though again, given that it will help us bond with the cast, I’m not complaining too much. That said, I’m baffled here. Wardog had set himself up in a pretty cushy position here. A swing vote in the main alliance, and not as obvious a threat as others. Yet he’s willing to cut himself off at the legs. When was Kelley going to go against him? There’s little to no logic to Wardog’s decision here. Yet it’s RON, the person who should be chomping at the bit to get rid of Kelley, who’s hesitant. Ron, listen to me: Getting rid of Kelley is GODSEND for you. It keeps you in the majority, but gets rid of a major threat, as well as keep you in control of said minority. I hear your point about Julie not wanting Aurora around, but you didn’t go directly against her. Assuming you give her fair warning, I doubt she’ll be too mad. In case it wasn’t obvious, Kelley is the correct move for Ron and the other swing votes in this case (I don’t really count Wardog as a swing in this scenario). Gets rid of a major threat, and keeps the overall majority intact while still maintaining power within that alliance. The downside? Unless Kelley plays her idol, none that I can think of. Go for it!

The only wrinkle in this idea is Aurora, who has a good idea, but executes it poorly. While she’s happy there’s a target other than her, given that the news is coming from a man who goes by the name “Wardog” she’s suspicious. As such, she decides to get some insurance using her extra vote. Now, playing it here would be pointless, since with an odd number, there’s no risk of a tie. Instead, to help convince our swing vote Ron to keep her around, she ought to tell him about it, and say they’ll use it together if she stays. Instead, she gives it to Ron as collateral for keeping her around. This is an incredibly dumb idea since, as Ron points out, he can just get rid of Aurora and have an advantage for himself. Now there’s a slight incentive to get rid of Aurora, though since this means Aurora is also open to being a future number, I say still go for Kelley.

While no less mysterious, our second Tribal Council just doesn’t have the pizzaz the first one had. This is understandable, given that the first Tribal Council was about a battle between two sides, while the second is about subtlety and intrigue, lest an idol be played. This means that Ron and company needs to act like everything’s going down for a normal, boring vote. They do this well, and so I don’t blame Kelley for not playing her idol. That said, it does make things less interesting to watch, even with a second good bit of misdirection. As foreshadowed, Kelley goes home, and again, I’m not overly sorry. Kelley had returnee upside, but she didn’t bring as much snark as she did on “Survivor Cambodia”, and again, as it means we’re finally unshackling this season from being all about the returnees, I’m in favor of it.

This season continues it’s upward swing, again only hampered by the lack of time. There’s just too much to get through in each episode, and it leaves things feeling cramped and rushed. However, we’re now at the point of exciting Tribal Council, good camp intrigue, and a cast now able to forge their own path, rather than one related to returnees. If the season can keep up this trend, it just might move up a few slots in my rankings. It would take a miracle to put this season in the “Best of the Best” category at this point, but we just might avoid mediocrity as well.