“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Cambodia

Quick, gotta get one of these out before the next season’s cast gets announced, which I’m betting will be in the next week or two at the time of this writing.  Better be a pretty simple change, preferably from a season I know pretty well… Yep, Cambodia will do nicely.  

Before I delve into the change we’ll be exploring, however, there are a couple of notes that should be given out.  Firstly, I myself did not TRULY come up with this scenario.  Credit for that goes to the “Survivor” YouTuber Peridiam, whose content I quite enjoy.  I’ll go into more detail when I discuss the change itself, but suffice to say, he informed me of something I did not previously know about in a recent video, and that led to the creation of this scenario you’ll be reading about.  Thus, it’s fair to say this is really his idea, rather than mine.  

The other note is the usual warning about SPOILERS!  Given the nature of this season as a second chance for non-winners, I’ll not only be discussing the outcome from Cambodia on for the sake of comparison, I’ll also be spoiling a lot of earlier seasons as well.  Thus, be wary should you read ahead.  It will not be spoiler safe.  

As you’ve now been duly warned, let us dive in.  

THE IMPACT

Doubtless all my readers remember the Final Four of “Survivor Cambodia”.  We’re left with two from San Juan del Sur, in Kelley and Jeremy, and two from Cagayan, in Spencer and Tasha.  They end up competing for immunity in “Simmotion”, quickly becoming an all-too common final challenge, and an underwhelming one at that in my opinion (for those not familiar, I don’t think the challenge is bad per se, but it feels too small yet too complex for a final immunity challenge.  Either give me some massive structure or a straight endurance challenge at the end.)  Jeremy ended up winning, thereby getting rid of pretty much all doubt that anyone but Kelley was going home at that point.  Granted, I don’t think most of us saw Spencer shooting himself in the foot quite as badly as he did, but still, pretty low tension.  

What you may NOT know, or at least I didn’t know, is that this was NOT the first time this challenge was run that season.  As Peridiam detailed in his “Top 10 Game-Ending Chokes in Survivor History” video, there was actually a practice round held before the actual challenge we saw.  And THAT challenge ended quite differently, with Kelley creaming the competition.  Only because a second round was needed did Jeremy win.  

So, what if that DOESN’T happen?  What if there’s not practice round, just one run of the challenge?  Well, assuming that’s the first run, the same as in our timeline, then Kelley wins, obviously.  I’d normally cover what’s next in the next section, but with how simple this change is, we can fudge the borders a bit.  With Kelley now immune, I’d say Jeremy becomes the obvious target.  He’d used his “shields” strategy well, but his shields were now gone.  Kelley was aware of how big of a threat he was, so I’d wager Tasha and Spencer were as well.  Couple that with Tasha and Spencer being allied on their original season, and Jeremy’s a goner here.  How does this change the season?  Find out in the next section.  

THE FALLOUT

Kelley wins.  Yeah, there’s not really a good, clever segue or lead-in to that.  It’s the obvious outcome.  Now, it’s fair to say that Kelley does not have the dominating performance that Jeremy does.  If nothing else, Savage is never voting for her to win under basically any circumstances.  But for the other votes?  At a minimum, I’d say she has Kass, Ciera, Abi-Maria, Kimmi, and Keith on lock.  That’s five out a needed six, and I’d say the likes of Joe, Kelly, and Jeremy lean in her favor as well.  Fishbach is a bit more up in the air, but I could see him being persuaded to vote for her in certain circumstances.  Point being, Kelley is easily the frontrunner to win.  The rest of the changes, however, come in the section I call…

THE LEGACY

For once in this off-season, we’ve got something far back enough in the timeline that it actually changes returnee seasons a bit.  Surprisingly, our first change is actually to “Survivor Game Changers” rather than “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, which Kelley was on in our timeline.  But no, I say the cast of Game Changers is itself changed, simply due to the fact of Jeremy not winning.  In our timeline, Jeremy was victorious one, with Kelley the good-but-robbed player.  In the timeline of a Kelley victory, those roles are reversed.  In our timeline, Kelley was asked to come back for Game Changers, but felt it was too soon.  As such, I don’t doubt that Jeremy is asked back here as well, but he always seemed a bit hungrier for the win, so barring some external life circumstance, I don’t see him saying “no”.  Much as I’d like to say he takes Varner’s place, I don’t see that happening.  

The good news is that the Varner/Zeke incident probably doesn’t happen as a result of this change, but it’s because Zeke, not Varner, gets replaced by Jeremy.  Zeke always seemed a bit “on the bubble” in terms of the cast; brought in more for being from a popular season than being super stand-out as a character his first time around.  Not dissing the guy, to be clear.  He seems like an awesome dude IRL, just not the biggest character from his season.  Add on that it’s always dicey bringing back cast members from a season that just wrapped filming, and I’d say Jeremy is more of a slam-dunk for this spot than anyone else.  Jeremy taking Zeke’s place changes that season in ways that would take a whole other blog to consider, so for now, we’ll leave that change here.  

It may not come first, but as Kelley’s win makes her ineligible for “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, someone must take her place.  I think the smart money would be on Chrissy Hoffbeck of “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”.  They don’t quite fill the same demographic age-wise, but they are both women known for being good in challenges and overcoming great odds to make it near the end.  Decent enough parallels, and I’d say Chrissy was/is popular enough to merit a second shot.  Again, her place on the season changes too much to go over here, though I will say in the aggregate, I think she and David do worse than their placements in our timeline.  Part of the reason Kelley and David were “successful” (at least compared to Joe and Aubry) is that they worked against one another, thus diluting their threat level in the eyes of the fans.  Chrissy and David seem more on the same wavelength, and unless someone on Manu had the same hero-worship of Chrissy that Lauren had of Kelley, they do worse.  

This, then, brings us to “Survivor Winners at War”, where I have no doubt Kelley is brought back.  Popular winner from a popular season?  Yeah, she’s a shoe-in, probably taking Michele’s spot given how controversial the latter’s win was.  Shame, since it means we’re deprived of the Michele renaissance we got in our timeline, but these things happen.  No Jeremy on Winners at War also means we need a replacement for him.  As per usual with these blogs, I’m sticking with the safe choice of Mike Holloway from “Survivor Worlds Apart” getting the slot.  The man made it far in casting in our timeline, only getting cut due to spots just not being available.  One becomes available?  Production takes him in a heartbeat.  

I mentioned Kelley being a popular winner from a popular season, and surprise surprise, I meant it.  Cambodia is hardly reviled in our timeline, with only those who strongly favor character over strategy having much negative to say about it.  Kelley’s win doesn’t change the validity of that criticism, but I don’t see her hurting the legacy of the season any more than Jeremy’s win does in our timeline.  If anything, the season is an even bigger deal than in our timeline.  We’ll rightly laud Jeremy for playing a smart game, but in terms of the show, it wasn’t a particularly “flashy” win.  Kelley, in contrast, has the “Wentworth, will not count” as the iconic moment of the season.  Even in our timeline, I’d say it’s remembered as the highlight of the season.  As the crux of a winner’s story?  Yeah, it’s one for the history books.  There’s also just the fact that Kelley perhaps more than anyone else on the season, exemplifies the idea of the “second chance”.  She was tied for earliest boot on the season with Kimmi, and then she comes back and wins?  That’s an arc you can’t write, and it’s amazing to watch when it happens.  

As a final, random change this makes to the timeline, of all people, Drew Christy of “Survivor San Juan del Sur” is oddly given a bit more credit than in our timeline.  Don’t misunderstand, he’s still by and large the butt of the joke with just how much the edit dunks on him and his decisions throughout his boot episode.  “The Fall of Drew Christy” is easily one of the funniest things to come out of modern “Survivor”.  But now, with a Kelley win?  People look back on his out-of-nowhere quest to get rid of her, to the point of throwing a challenge just to eliminate her, and think “Yeah, this guy’s an idiot in his execution, but maybe he was on to something with the general idea.”  Man, that’s a weird timeline to think about.  

Speaking of weird timelines, thanks for following this one!  Always appreciate people taking the time to peruse my weird ramblings.  To help ensure I have more of them, let me know down in the comments what you’d like me to examine next!  The general guidelines for what sorts of submissions will be considered are listed below.  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Cambodia, Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Ghost Island, Island of the Idols, Winners at War.

As always, thank you so much for following my mad ramblings, and I look forward to hearing what you want to read next in the comments!

-Matt

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Ghost Island

Rested and ready, it is time once again to explore alternate timelines.  How one small change might leave a big impact on something.  Me being me, we’re of course going to use this thought experiment to look purely at “Survivor”, because clearly that’s really important!

In all seriousness, it is my honor to have you back here for “Survivor What-Ifs?”, the blog where we make one little change on a given season and see how it makes things play out differently both on that season, and on subsequent seasons.  Our subject for today is “Survivor Ghost Island”, one of the more maligned seasons, both for a fairly predictable outcome, and for starting a lot of the trends people are saying are ruining modern “Survivor”.  I tend to be kinder to this season than most, but I’ll admit that’s partly because I really enjoyed the dominant alliance, and thought the dynamic between the two leaders was interesting enough to keep the season from being terrible.  I also admired the certain amount of restraint production showed with the “Ghost Island” twist.  Granted, the latter is more of a “Could have been worse” situation, but in this day and age, I’ll take what I can get.  Still, even as someone who defends this season more than others, I won’t deny it has some big problems, and while I would consider it “ok” it’s definitely far from being on the greats.  Perhaps, though, one little change may make that different…

Before we discuss said change, however, a couple of quick bits of business: Since it’s been a while since we’ve done one of these blogs, let me give a quick refresher on the format.  The blog will be divided into three sections.  “The Impact” will look at what the exact change is to the timeline, and how it affects the episode it occurs in.  “The Fallout” will look at how that change impacts the rest of the season.  “The Legacy” will look at how this change impacted the show down the road, both in terms of returnee seasons, and how the season would have been looked back on.  

Second, a reminder that there are SPOILERS ahead.  It’s difficult to talk about changing the timeline without talking about how things went down in our time.  Thus, be aware that if you haven’t seen “Survivor Ghost Island” or any subsequent seasons, you read at your own risk.  Duly warned, let us jump in.  

THE IMPACT

While there is some debate about where, exactly, Ghost Island goes “wrong”, as a season, I think most would agree that the death knell for anything interesting happened when Chris became the merge boot.  He was really the only major force speaking out against the pairing of Dom and Wendell, and once he was gone, their march to the end was all but assured.  All the more frustratingly, he HAD an idol to save himself.  One that was only good for one extra Tribal Council!  Almost no reason not to play it, since he knew he was likely getting votes, had no vote of his own, and SAW Dom play a legacy advantage!  Yet he didn’t.  And thus, the season suffers.  

So what if he does?  What if circumstances get Chris to play his idol?  By my own self-imposed rules, I can’t have him have a brain-wave about this, of course.  However, luck-based circumstances COULD make Chris play his idol.  Recall that, when he got said idol, it was only good for one Tribal Council.  However, Chris could play 50/50 guessing games, at the risk of losing his vote, to give it more Tribal Councils it could be played at.  Such a luck-based thing definitely falls under the purview of “Survivor What-Ifs?”, and could definitely change how Chris uses his idol.  

In our timeline, Chris got his first guess right, before getting the second one wrong.  This gave Chris a reason not to play his idol at the Tribal Council he goes home at.  But what if he got the first one wrong?  Now Chris’ idol is only good at this Tribal Council, and even if he did make a fairly large mistake in not playing his idol in our timeline, I do not think Chris is stupid enough to not play an idol at the only Tribal Council it’s good for.  As a cascade effect of this choice, Chris is now immune at the merge, along with Dom.  

So what happens then?  Thankfully, we had a split vote in our timeline, which would likely be no different in this timeline, so we can be assured that backup boot Libby goes, becoming the first member of the jury.  Thus, the merge will be further impacted in the next section.  

As an aside, this also means we likely don’t get Chris’ Ponderosa rap, at least not right away.  A fact that I personally rejoice in, but I know makes a lot of the fanbase cry.  

THE FALLOUT

If you were to force me to say honestly what I thought would happen with this timeline change, most likely what happens is that Chris goes one one episode later, and the season proceeds pretty much as we know it, just with Chris and Libby swapping boot order.  Chris just did not have the social capital to do much.  Heck, part of the reason he went at the merge in our timeline was because he was an easy consensus boot.  That said, just ending blog with “And everything else was the same, the end.” would be boring.  So, is there a cascade effect from here that could lead things to go differently?

In fact, I would say there are two.  The simple one is that Chris wins immunity.  Dude was good in challenges; there’s always the chance he could have pulled out a win.  Then, in the interest of ending the civil war amongst the original Naviti, Domenick might go just to end the argument.  

Slightly more complicated is how Chris might be able to leverage that last Tribal Council.  While Chris didn’t have MUCH social capital to work with, it’s not NONE.  Him getting votes might have been the wake-up call he needed to be more diplomatic.  With him then out of the danger zone of “Easy consensus boot goes” he found himself in at the merge, I could see Chris making basically the argument I just made to the rest of Naviti.  “We need to be united, but Domenick’s witch hunt against me only divides us.”  With a bit more time to think, it’s possible Naviti might choose to rally around Chris rather than Domenick.  If so, then Domenick goes at the second post-merge Tribal Council, and we’ve got ourselves a timeline worth talking about!

Regardless of whichever way it happens, a bit part of Chris’ being saved is due to him playing up the “Naviti Strong” trends we saw in our timeline.  Therefore, it would only make sense in the altered timeline if Ghost Island ended up being a pretty straight Pagonging.  Michael, Jenna, Lauren, and Donathan all go out one after another, barring any shenanigans with the split Tribal Council at the final 10, and it’d be tough for them to get the numbers mathematically at that point anyway.  Thus, the Naviti alliance is somehow even MORE dominant in this timeline than in our own.  

While “Naviti Strong” does keep Chris in the game longer, it does create a problem for Chris.  We’ll call it “The Problem of Wendell”.  The issue is that, while Wendell is not as disliked by Chris as Domenick was (Wendell’s opinions on Chris’ rap skills notwithstanding), Wendell’s not exactly happy that Chris knocked out his number one ally.  Wendell, however, probably has the smarts to go the Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) route, and simply fold himself back into the majority, and wait for the time to strike.  Further, Wendell is a threat to Chris just simply running away with immunity all the way to the end, and at some point, Chris would be vulnerable.  Given his relative lack of social capital amongst the Naviti, I’d say it’s fair to assume that Chris goes out at some point.  He makes it farther, and is more of a strategic force, but saving himself with an idol does not win him the season.  

With no competition, then, does Wendell still win the game, just not in quite the same way?  Again, no.  Wendell was great in challenges, but even in our timeline, he wasn’t unbeatable.  He’s more well-liked then Chris, but with no more Malolo to vote out, and no larger physical threats left (save Sebastian, and let’s be honest, Sebastian did not have the puzzle skills to be considered enough of a “challenge threat” to shield Wendell), Wendell becomes a target.  So, who does become the driving force post-merge, then?  Why, the alliance of Kellyn, Desiree, and Chelsea, of course!  Yes, an alliance that existed within our own timeline, only stopped due to Domenick and Wendell outmaneuvering them while they were still stuck on “Naviti Strong”.  Without that pair, and with “Naviti Strong” being even more of the driving force of the post-merge, there’s no reason those three don’t waltz into the final three basically uncontested.  

Of them, I’d be willing to bet that Chelsea wins.  Despite being purpled on our television screens, all post-season interviews indicate that Chelsea was both well-liked by the cast, and a strategic driving force behind the scenes.  Kellyn might have been the face of Naviti, but that doesn’t mean she was as well-liked, and we’ve seen how the “mother” character often doesn’t get the credit they deserve at the end.  

A Chelsea win means there’s a retroactive change to the season, specifically in how it’s edited.  The product we see is COMPLETELY different from the one we get, because production doesn’t try to hide Chelsea’s game.  Far from it, they’d actually try and promote her as this black-widow-esque mastermind in the same vein as Parvati.  It probably wouldn’t work that well.  No disrespect to Chelsea, but unless she had some quality stuff they left on the cutting-room floor (along with her strategic talk), she doesn’t pop off the screen.  Probably remembered as a solid winner strategically, but not one of the most entertaining one’s we’ve ever seen.  Sort of the female equivalent of Tommy in our own timeline.  

THE LEGACY

This season leaves us little to talk about in the way of returnees, mostly because there was only one returnee season that aired after this one, and that was Winners at War.  This may come as a shock, but I don’t think Chelsea was getting the invite.  Again nothing against her, but I don’t see her being an entertaining-enough winner to get the call back.  MAYBE, if she had some really good moments we just didn’t see in our timeline, she could take Michele’s spot, but “Survivor Kaoh Rong” is still probably seen as the better season in our timeline, so all else being equal, I’d give Michele the edge here.  

Of course, this leaves Wendell’s spot on that season open for another guy to come in.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Mike Holloway of “Survivor Worlds Apart” ends up filling in that spot.  We know he was considered in our timeline, and likely only dropped because all the slots for men filled up with people production preferred.  With no Wendell in the mix, that’s probably just the opening Mike needs to get in.  That probably changes the course of how that season goes drastically, at least after the swap, but that would also merit a blog all its own, so I’m not going to go into detail here.  

In terms of discourse AROUND the season, however, there’s a couple of big changes.  First and foremost, the discussion around bias against older women becomes even more of a “thing” that it was in our timeline.  People were salty enough at Chrissy’s loss on “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”, but now we’ve got two older women, who were good strategic leaders, losing back to back.  Admittedly to different archetypes (I don’t think anyone would say that Ben and Chelsea are at all similar), but still, the conversation around that bias becomes more heated, and there’s a lot more of a drive to give the “older” women a chance.  Probably increases the chances of the likes of Janet on later seasons, since players are not immune to public feedback, particularly those players who follow the online community closely.  

The other effects of the season changing are slightly less notable, but worth at least a mention.  Tie votes at Final Tribal Council, while still a specter over the audience, are not a thing we experience to this day with the change.  Chelsea winning, of course, also slightly decreases the diversity of the winner pool, since we’ve eliminated a black winner in Wendell to put her in instead.  Given that the petition for more diversity in casting didn’t come about until post-COVID, I don’t think this does anything radical like move the timeline for when that happens up, but it is more fuel to the fire.  And finally, this change probably elevates some characters (particular Chelsea and Desiree) to more prominence than they had in our timeline, while Domenick loses some favor conversely, and except for some proposed “Second Chance” ballots, you probably don’t hear about him much in the community.  On the plus side, Wendell stays big enough of a character that his and Brice’s podcasts and parties still happen.  

The big question, as always, is “Does this change make the season better or worse?”  Honestly, in this case, the change probably doesn’t impact how the season is seen overall that much, but if it does, the season comes out looking slightly worse.  The problem is that the real thing that killed this season was the “Naviti Strong” sentiment that no one could overcome, leading to a predictable outcome.  Since that sentiment is only stronger in this timeline, that doesn’t change.  Admittedly this season is less frustrating, since there’s less of a chance for anyone to talk about overthrowing Naviti.  On the other hand, it’s also more boring, since there’s not even a HINT of going against the Pagonging in this timeline.  In addition, as mentioned, we lose out on the tie vote, one of the few things that helps this season stand out from the others.  Given the “girl power” theme of the final three, there’s probably a hard core of fans who love the season for the strategy, but they’re very much a minority.  

Maybe not the most exciting change to talk about first, but I do find it intriguing how different paths can lead to the same feeling.  Then again, perhaps I’m full of it, and got this completely wrong.  Let me know in the comments what you think would happen in a timeline such as this!  In addition, I’m always looking for more timeline changes to blog about, so feel free to submit those there as well.  Rest assured, you will be credited if your request is chosen!  Some general guidelines for submissions to be considered are as follows: 

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Game Changers, Ghost Island, Island of the Idols.

It’s good to be back writing for y’all!  Look forward to more to come!

-Matt

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 7: Show of Forced

Oh?  Oh, the title?  Sorry, that’s a typo.  It’s supposed to be “Forced Show”, since that’s what we got tonight.  I’m more forgiving of “feel good” moments than some, but combine them with Probst narration where it isn’t needed, and you’re rankling my hide something fierce.  

Our first bit of information as we get back from what I’ll be calling the “Earn the Merge” Tribal is the merge tribe name.  Turns out they went with Gaia this time.  I prefer my merge tribe names longer myself, and it’s not particularly Fijian either, but it’s fine for what it is.  At least it’s not another combination of the original tribe names.  

Our second bit of information is that Jeanine was NOT in on the “Blindside Elie” plan, and is, quite understandably, not happy about it.  Noelle is quick to sympathize with her, noting that she was in the exact same situation after her first Tribal Council, and noting how well it’s turned out for her overall.  Jeanine, to her credit, recognizes that she needs to sell herself as not being particularly beat up over the whole thing.  I can get behind this sentiment, but we see that Cody need not be afraid of Jeanine.  A salesperson she isn’t.  She’s saying the right words to people: How she’s happy to still be in the game, distancing herself from Elie, talking about how she’s less of a threat now.  But her tone comes off as either too insistent, or else stilted and forced.  Gabler’s grudge was more against Elie, so I don’t think Jeanine’s in too much danger regardless (particularly as she has an idol), but it’s more due to the situation than her prowess.  That said, I will give her props for her pitch to James specifically.  When James comments that she’s not going to be a target, she responds very well by saying “Then let me be an asset”.  Subtly planting the idea of working with her in people’s heads without insisting on anything, and making it sound very natural.  More of that, please!

Gabler may have spearheaded the vote in the previous episode, but he’s by no means the leader of this tribe.  After confirming that his idol is now inactive (I think most of us assumed it was, but it’s good to get confirmation nonetheless), Gabler talks about sitting back a bit.  Gabler tells us this is intentional, as he wants the “Alli-Gabler” to “sink back under water” until it’s time to strike again.  Eh, I’ve heard dumber nicknames on this show.  

Gabler may not have the chance though.  Dwight and Owen reaffirm the Baka/Vesi commitment against Coco, though why either of those two has the power to make that call is beyond me.  Owen, from what we can tell, was left out of the vote last episode, implying he has no real power even within his own tribe.  Dwight is slightly better off, having been the swing vote at his last Tribal vote (as in tribal phase, not Tribal Council), but still, decision-making power seemed like it rested more with Jesse and Cody than him.  However, they note that Gabler is a wild card.  A loose cannon.  A bull in a China shop.  Every other cliche metaphor for something uncontrollable/destructive.  Hence, Gabler is target number one, as the supermajority could still get out Coco without the X factor of Gabler.  Can’t fault their logic.  

No time for more strategizing, Tree Mail has arrived!  At first it seems like it’s just delivering the new tribe flag and paints, but as Dwight tells us, there’s something more.  Yes, the show is kicking it old school-style, by asking everyone to divide into pairs for the upcoming immunity challenge.  With everyone correctly predicting that they’ll need a strong competitor to get through, but also having to face said competitor at the end, plus the ever-present danger in speaking up in general, no one really wants to ask for anybody.  Honestly, this is a fantastic wrinkle/dilemma to throw into the game.  One that forces more social creativity, while also being a throwback to older seasons.  “Survivor The Australian Outback” and “Survivor Africa” both did something similar for their final 8 reward challenge!  I kind of love the callback.  

Immediately afterward, however, I’m reminded why that twist was rightfully retired: NO ONE EVER DOES ANYTHING WITH IT!  Rather than show their hand, the members of Gaia use their newly-acquired paint to create pairs of colored rocks, with people drawing them randomly to determine pairings.  LAME!

We cut to commercial with Sami talking about the mystery of what’s happening.  This challenge could be for anything!  Except, you know, Sami, the Tree Mail literally said it was for immunity, so it’s really not.  

Coming to our challenge, we see that it’s not just the production team on “Survivor All-Stars” who can divide people in such a way that original tribes remain largely intact.  Pretty much everyone is paired with someone from their original tribe: James and Ryan, Karla and Cassidy, Cody and Dwight, and most notably, Owen and Gabler.  This makes the only exceptions the pair of Sami and Noelle, and Jesse and Jeanine.  

It is the Owen and Gabler pair that I take umbrage with, however.  I get that it was random, but between that and the way this episode was edited so far, it’s a dead giveaway that they make it to the end, and Gabler wins out.  You don’t set up a conflict between two tribemates, then pair them together for most of a challenge, without setting them up for a conflict at the end.  And as Gabler was the only person targeted, the law of editing states that he must now be safe so the others scramble.  Hopefully they don’t drag the challenge out too long, at least.  

Speaking of the challenge, it’s an interesting mix.  Each pair makes their way through a net tube to dig up planks and flag, last two to do so being eliminated from the challenge.  Made all the harder by the net tube being twisted up, and in the mud.  Then it’s your usual “Plank bridge” balance challenge with two people, with the first two teams to cross moving on to the last round, which is the “Hold up a bucket with a percentage of your body weight by a cord wrapped around a pipe” challenge.  Combing your standard obstacle course with your standard endurance challenge is, I’ll admit, a new one for this show, but I’m not sure combining parts that are average at best add up to something great.  

Despite the challenge itself, or at least the first leg, not relying on teamwork (you could not help your partner through the net), it’s our mixed pairs that get eliminated first.  Not being jerks, everyone comes together to help Noelle and Jeanine (the two who could not get through the net) get out.  A pretty decent thing to do, though I suppose it is somewhat special that everyone helped, not just the partner.  We see here that it’s not just when sitting out that Noelle is emotional, as she expresses frustration at herself, and laments that she cost Sami a shot.  Sami, being a decent guy, tells her it doesn’t matter, and it’s all very nice.  

Too bad Probst just HAS to turn it into a “moment”.  Talk about how this is what makes “Survivor” great, and how sweet and unexpected this camaraderie is.  Or, you know, it could just be BASIC HUMAN FUCKING DECENCY, or BHFD, as I call it.  And even if it is something special, let the moment play out naturally.  Let the audience use their brain a bit.  Don’t feel the need to narrate over it and question everything.  Probst, buddy, I try and defend you as a host, I really do, but you’re not making it easy.  

Before we move on to the next round, we have a commercial break.  I’ll take that time to give props to Karla and Cassidy for making it past round one.  Neither of them was particularly a challenge sink, per se, but neither seemed a challenge beast either, which every other pair had at least one of.  Hence, impressive that they had a solid round one.  

Round two is not so lucky for them though.  Once Cody and Dwight cruise to an easy first place, we know from editing that Gabler and Owen must make it.  Sure enough, both of the Coco pairs collapse near the end (Karla needing to take the planks all the way back to start), and Owen and Gabler cruise to the final round.  

Said final round, according to Probst, breaks the record for this challenge, going for 37 minutes.  I’m not one to question the guys who made the show, but I thought for sure I remember the iteration of this challenge from “Survivor Philippines” being measured in hours, not minutes.  In any case, Dwight is out quickly, but everyone else hangs on.  

You know what this challenge doesn’t need?  More Probst narration!  Yet Probst gives it to us anyway.  The gift that keeps on giving, that man.  He asks what’s keeping everyone going in the challenge, and you can tell how forced some of these answers are.  Really, Cody?  Biggest regret is one lost wrestling match?  Sadness is sadness, but that had to be a good 20 years or so since you’ve done that.  I would think you would have moved on by now.  

That said, for every Cody, there is a Gabler.  Gabler is not content with having one motivator, no.  He needs to have a different motivation every minute!  This quickly spirals into the ludicrous, yet hilarious, territory.  Gabler starts out reasonable.  Talking about his family, and someone he met in an operating room.  Reasonable stuff.  Then he goes to more broad categories, like veterans of the armed forces.  Slightly more of a stretch, but again, hardly unreasonable.  By the end, though, Gabler is finding motivation in the entire state of Alaska, and making me regret using up my “Contestant breaks into my house” running gag too early this season.  We don’t hear every bit of inspiration Gabler has, but given that he was on states by the end, if you live in the U.S. I’d say there’s at least a 50% chance you were an inspiration to Gabler in that challenge.  

And to those who say the hilarity that is Gabler listing off his inspirations is worth the forced Probst moments, I would counter that Gabler probably would have listed them off without assistance from Probst.  

The only thing I had wrong in my predictions is that it’s not down to Owen vs Gabler specifically.  Owen can’t hang on, and it’s Cody who gives Gabler a run for immunity.  Gabler wins, getting to wear the extremely cool individual immunity idol for the season.  A bunch of claws centering around an animal skull.  Kind of derivative of the “Survivor Caramoan” individual immunity, but that’s a cool one to draw from, and this at least has some jade accents to help it stand out.  

So yeah, the sole named target is now immune, and so apart from Jeanine trying to get back in people’s good graces and Baka and Vesi coming back together, basically nothing has mattered this episode.  Well, we’re only what, halfway through?  Glad the show is making good use of its time.  

Following a PSA out PTSD from Gabler (that, to his credit, he does really well), we now need to scramble for some new targets.  Our initial plan is, once again, Baka and Vesi coming together.  With all 8 of their votes now active again, they can afford to split votes, since both sides now seem to be solid (Gabler’s vendetta having been satisfied for the moment).  They split between whom they perceive to be the biggest threats in James and Ryan.  The latter for his challenge ability, the former for his social prowess.  But of course, one must be paramount after the tie, and the coalition seems to be leaning towards James.  Can’t say I fault their logic.  Both are decent threats, but the social threats, at this phase, can be worse in the long run than the physical threats.  Besides, Ryan is more likely to split from Coco than James in the event the other is voted out.  

Adding to James’ target, he finds a note saying an advantage is hidden under the shelter.  Normally this would be a good thing, but James happens to find it in from of Dwight, Owen, and Sami, aka three people who really want him gone.  James plays it off as best he can, saying he won’t go for it until after Tribal Council to build trust, but no one buys it, and it merely cements the target on James’ back.  As such, James goes back on his word, and grabs the thing with no subtlety.  Ordinarily I’d chastise such an obvious move, and one that makes you look untrustworthy, but in this case, it seems like James just rightly read the room that he was screwed anyway, so he might as well get a hopefully beneficial twist out of it.  

Noelle in particular is leading the anti-James charge now, since Dwight disseminates the information of James’ advantage to everyone else.  We don’t see exactly why, but I think that’s because the episode may have shown us some events slightly out of order, as I’ll discuss in a bit.  It’s this insistence from Noelle that gets us our misdirection here.  See, Jesse still doesn’t fully trust Noelle, and so her really wanting this to happen makes Jesse think that doing so will give her too much power.  Plus, he’s got a tight bond with Karla, and thinks he can work with her down the road.  Voting off James might jeopardize that.  

What’s that?  You didn’t know Jesse and Karla had a close bond?  Are you blind?  The edit made it super-obvious!  You know, with all of ZERO CONVERSATIONS we’ve seen between them before this point!

Look, I get that it might be a “They went to the same school at the same time, and so at least knew of each other outside the game” thing, but that’s little excuse.  “Survivor Winners at War” showed that the show can handle “Outside the Game” facets well, and they’ve even dealt with this exact same situation before.  Ali and Patrick knew each other before “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”, and the show let us know that just fine!  But even if you DON’T want to admit you maybe accidentally put a pre-existing relationship on the show, at least give us SOME other excuse!  SURELY Karla and Jesse had some conversation before this.  Give us that.  Give us SOMETHING rather than jumping straight to “They’re super close”

Anyway, Jesse talks to Cody about getting rid of Noelle, which Jesse changes to getting rid of Dwight, since he seems to be the better player.  In either case, I can definitively say this is a STUPID PLAN!  The group most likely to be successful at the end is the one that does not fracture too early.  Gabler has already fractured Baka fairly handily, so that leaves you and Coco.  You want Coco to crack first, and the best way to do that is to get rid of one of them, rather than someone you’ve been at least somewhat working with this entire time!  Even without factoring in James’ advantage, he’s the smarter play.  

Speaking of James’ advantage, this is where we find out what it is.  It’s our old friend, Knowledge is Power, aka the show saying “We’re going to keep giving out this advantage until it works, gorramit!”  James, evidently having learned nothing from the previous two seasons, starts telling people about it, hoping to build trust.  Ryan I don’t mind, since it would help keep him from wanting to turn on Coco, but Cody?  Even not knowing Cody has an idol, if you wanted that advantage so bad, you MUST suspect that Vesi is working against you.  Why give them ammunition.  This is enough to get Cody on the path against James again, and leads to most everyone else knowing that James has this advantage.  It also, in my view, goes to explain why Noelle might have been so gung-ho against James.  After all, James is out of the loop on the exact location of MOST idols and advantages in the game, but he knows FOR SURE that Noelle has one, since had and Owen effectively gave her one on their journey in episode 3.  That, rightly, probably makes Noelle afraid, and thus makes her more of a force behind this vote than she might previously have been, assuming that what we saw of her pushing for James came after knowledge of his advantage was specifically disseminated.  

Oh, and of course, as when any “Knowledge is Power” is found out about, there’s a mad scramble to shift who has what, leaving Dwight to hold onto Jeanine’s idol.  But I’m sure that won’t be important in the long run.  

In keeping with stuff being put in too short a time frame, our Tribal Council is a particularly short one tonight, but still manages to pack in a few memorable moments.  Jesse gets to call back to the “1-10 scale” moment from earlier in the season when asked effectively the same question.  I also enjoy, in a meta sort of way, Probst throwing out all pretense, and just asking Cody for a surfing analogy.  If we must have the forced analogies, this is the way to do it.  

Surprisingly, no one plays an idols or advantages.  James in particular has some stones given that he must have had some idea he was being targeted.  Kudos to him!  It’s bad news for Dwight, however, as Cody and Jesse (and by extension Sami, since he was also in on the vote) do a dumb and send him home.  While it might have been a bad move strategically, from an entertainment perspective it was probably the best outcome.  Don’t get me wrong, I enjoyed Dwight very much, but compared to the other targets tonight, he was the least interesting television, at least for me (I could see someone finding Ryan less interesting).  Happy with the outcome, stupid as it may be.  

That said, Dwight does not make the jury, which I am sad for.  Dude was so full of energy, would have been fun to see him being the King.  This is also a relative rarity in the show these days; making the official merge but not the jury.  If you don’t count Sydney and Lydia from the last two seasons as having made the merge, the last time this happened was “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”.  

Oh, and let’s not forget about Jeanine!  She tries valiantly to get her idol back as the votes are being read, tapping on Dwight’s leg repeatedly.  It’s all for naught, as the show has been kind enough to confirm this would not have been allowed, but man, she just cannot catch a break, this poor woman!  She’s basically in the Scot Pollard position from “Survivor Kaoh Rong”.  The only difference this time is that I actually enjoy watching the people who just got screwed, and so we miss out on some of the schadenfreude that season had.  

I will not say this episode is entirely without merit.  There were a few moments of hilarity here and there.  Gabler during the immunity challenge, and the aforementioned Tribal Council questions.  But apart from the occasional giggle, this episode is just BAD.  Terrible misdirection, poor gameplay largely across the board, and half the episode was pointlessly taken up by a challenge that undid nearly all the earlier strategizing.  I’ve tried to be fair to this season, but my patience is at an end.  You can do better!  Shape up!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.