Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Finale: Got Me Saying It

You all know I like my running gags around here.  I mean, there’s a reason the “Matthew Grinstead-Mayle Injury Rock (TM)” kept getting mentioned several episodes after it had any relevance this season.  And one of my other ones has been at the expense of Ben, or at least his catchphrase.  This is partly in fun, partly out of how basic it is, and partly out of me just not connecting with Ben (nothing against the guy; we just have little in common).  And yet, for all that I mock, I must now eat my words, as there is simply no other way to say it:

This season rocks.  

To find out exactly why, we go back to the beginning, with everyone getting back to camp.  And I do mean, CAMP.  Yes, for the first time in the new era, we’re NOT stuck going to some new beach for the final five for some reason!  I assumed they just neglected to mention it since we’d assume it was coming last episode, but nope!  They’re just doing away with it entirely.  Hope that stays.  It was a pointless, annoying twist that just ate up time.  

Instead, we focus on more important things, like how exactly Maria plans to save her skin after being blindsided.  The answer, it seems, is running back to Charlie tail between her proverbial legs.  She’s clearly emotional about the whole thing, and in confessional admits that being in this position really hurts and frustrates her (rather defeatist, if I’m being honest.  Not a good look on her), but does her level best to try and claw something back.  She spins a tale to Charlie about Liz and Kenzie insisting that it would be him, only to blindside her.  A lie Charlie sees right through, but at least his “Keep my options open” strategy is bearing fruit.  For his part, Charlie admits to feeling a mite betrayed by the whole thing, but also acknowledges that he can’t really complain when he’d have done the same to her were she not immune.  All in all, Maria is still on extremely thin ice, but she’s doing what she can to give herself a proverbial lifeline.  

But this has not been a season solely focussed on strategy.  No, more so than any season in the new era, this one is about the DRAMA!  Naturally, the eviction of one such as Q cannot be left alone, and we get our gloating in the form of Liz, happy that her game has taken off.  Really gives me “Survivor Vanuatu” vibes.  The person you voted off it may not have been smart to do, but MAN are you happy about it and going to tell the world about it.  This is the modern version of Scout’s “No Eliza Noises” confessional, basically.  

Morning comes, and we get another nice surprise: NO stupid challenge advantage scavenger hunt!  No, we instead just get a reaffirmation of the need to beat Maria today, and we head off to our challenge.  Simple, effective, nothing in excess.  Maybe the show is learning after all.  

Our challenge… Well I would call it another standard obstacle course, but this one has a few fun beats that, if not original, at least help it stand out.  In particular, an early mud net crawl (for which Liz has to take off her glasses, only to put them on.  Personally I’d leave my glasses off for the entirety of the challenge, if possible), using a rope ball on a string to pull down a bridge, and a puzzle giving clues of what to count for a combination lock.  Fun elements that you don’t see in your standard obstacle course, and so I’ll give this one a pass.  

Maria and Charlie are initially the frontrunners on this challenge, though Kenzie manages to get even with them on the puzzle.  That’s where things get funky.  As mentioned, the puzzle, when solved, reveals a clue of things to count to open a combination lock.  One of these things are the number of holes in a plank that was used RIGHT after the mud crawl on the challenge, basically necessitating a re-running of the obstacle course for our contestants.  Sadistic, but this portion actually ends up being a bit broken.  You see, Liz and Ben are both pretty much out of it.  Liz, however, realizing that she’s unlikely to win, sets out to help Kenzie.  She goes to retrieve Kenzie’s plank, thereby leaving Kenzie free to count the two other things, which are readily available to her.  Maria, conversely, has to run the whole thing once she solves the puzzle, costing her valuable time.  Kenzie does make a mistake in her own counting, but still manages to pull out a win.  

This may come as a surprise to some, since I panned Sophie suggesting that Albert do exactly this back in the infancy days of my blog, aka “Survivor South Pacific”, but I actually like this move for Liz.  The difference here is that in the challenge with Sophie and Albert, there was the possibility, however remote, that Ozzy could mess up, thereby opening the door for everyone else.  In an individual game, Albert has no need to help Sophie.  Yes, the want to beat Ozzy, but he could possibly fail on his own in that scenario.  This is a “First past the post” race, with no real way to fall behind (save for Liz herself forgetting her key at one point, which was a good laugh), so helping someone else gain ground is much smarter.  Moreover, by winning immunity, Kenzie can come across as being the person to “vanquish” the main threat of the season, that being Maria.  By helping her, you steal some of that credit for yourself.  If Liz had a real chance to win that challenge, I’d be more critical, but if you can’t win, then at least influence the outcome.  Besides, Adam Klein did this on “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”, and it helped him win the whole game.  Hmm, I wonder if that particular challenge will be relevant later this episode…

In addition to Immunity, Kenzie also gets to take one person to “The Sanctuary” for a meal, since  Probst just needs to annoy me with that slogan ONE MORE TIME!  Kenzie chooses Ben, which is the logical choice.  Apart from the pair being close, Kenzie probably wants to solidify strategy talk with him.  They do so on the reward, with Ben talking about how nice it is to have a true friend out here, not just someone to talk game with.  Solidifying once and for all that Ben is a genuine, nice guy without a strategic bone in his body.  

Thankfully we have some real strategy talk back at camp.  Were I in Maria’s position, I would be gunning hard for Charlie.  He’s proved willing to vote against your own interests, and is easier to talk up as a threat than basically anyone else left.  I am NOT Maria, however, as evidenced by the fact that she tries to target BEN instead.  Look, I get not wanting to burn your bridge with Charlie, but for Maria at this point, the philosophy should be “Anyone but me.” And again, Charlie is the easiest to target.  Hell, even if you DO want to work with him, there’s not reason to include him on your idol hunt!  You really think he’s going to let you know if he finds it?  Get real.  

To Maria’s credit, however, I will say she is an excellent salesperson.  As mentioned, she targets Ben, spinning a lie about how Ben’s Kenzie vote WASN’T a mistake, but a game move, and he can pull this sort of stunt with a bunch of things at the end.  Her tone and word choice almost make it believable, until you hear Ben say “That rocks” for the umpteenth time.  More compelling, and more realistic, is her point that Ben has many friends on the jury, and is well-liked.  For some juries, that’s all it takes.  It’s enough to get Liz and Charlie thinking, and is decent enough misdirection, but I’m not buying it.  Maria’s target is just too big.  You do not help someone else win a challenge just to keep the person you were trying to beat around.  

Evidently the editing team feels the same way, as any chance of misdirection goes out the window at Tribal Council, with Kenzie even flat-out admitting she’s voting Maria.  Thus, this Tribal turns into Maria’s farewell tour, which is definitely earned, but not that compelling.  Her talk of growing up with Lebanese immigrant parents is nice enough, but it doesn’t leave as much of an impact as it perhaps might have had at other times.  

So confident is the show that we don’t buy its own misdirection that they show all the votes.  A rare misstep in editing for this episode.  I’ll talk about it more throughout the blog, but the editing on this episode in particular had a lot of little funny moments I really enjoyed, and ranged from highly competent to masterful in most dramatic moments.  Here, however?  I get that the misdirection was weak, but if you’re going to drop it halfway through, why have it at all?  Just let this be one big swan song for Maria.  I will say, however, that I did enjoy Kenzie’s voting confession.  Her saying she “Wants to be [Maria] when [she] grows up”, coming from a woman who was 29 at the time of filming, is hilarious.  

I presume the Shot in the Dark has expired by now (I care about it so little, I honestly can’t remember), since Maria does not play it, and unsurprisingly goes.  I am sorry to see her go.  Maria is the most competent strategist I’d have been ok with winning this season (I’ll get more into that at the end), since she did make some mistakes, and as demonstrated this episode, could get a bit emotional.  It would have been a fitting win for the season, and we’re also badly in need of an older female winner by now.  You shall be missed, Maria.  

Also, while this in no way impacted boot order that we can tell, it IS a bit depressing that we’ve got four white people at the end, Maria being the last person of color left.  That said, clearly the diversity initiative is still doing its job properly, since this is the first season in the new era while the final three won’t contain at least one person of color.  This was just kind of a fluke in how this particular game played out, not any sort of commentary on how these players perceive that aspect.  

We should be preparing for our final Immunity Challenge, but before we can get to that, we need to add something ELSE to Liz’s ongoing list of ailments!  On top of all the allergies, she tells us she has weak joints that frequently don’t work properly.  Again I ask: And you came on “Survivor” WHY?  Liz is going to be sorry about that as well, given what our final challenge is that…

YOU’RE GOING TO PLAY “PLINKO” FOR UP TO $50,000!

Ok, ok, it’s not that, but given that CBS owns both franchises, it would have been funny if Probst had said that.  No, our players just have to assemble a puzzle of the logo of the season.  Simple, right?  Well, before they can begin, they have to toss a ball to the top of basically a giant pegboard, and catch it before it hits a metal ramp as it comes down.  Fail, and they can’t keep working on their puzzle until the ball goes ALL the way down the ramp, in an agonizing slow fashion.  This must be done continuously throughout the challenge.  

Plinko aside, there are probably two challenges that come to mind when you hear this description.  An immunity challenge from “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” is the more 1-1 comparison, particularly as I alluded to earlier.  That was a scaled-down version of this very challenge, memorable since that was when Adam stopped his own challenge to help Ken win, in order to get out a preferred target.  The giant pegboard itself, however?  Well, sad to say that’s now a DEEP cut in “Survivor” history, but for those of you who remember “Survivor Nicaragua” (and frankly I don’t blame anyone who doesn’t want to remember that season), pegboards of this size were used in a tribal immunity challenge.  Did not expect a Nicaragua throwback here, but I’m cool with it.  

Slow and steady really does win the race here.  Charlie and Liz both cut it too close, and drop their ball.  This is one of the funny editing bits, where we cut from the dramatic music of the challenge for everyone else, to “Dodo Music” as Charlie can only sit there and watch his ball.  Kenzie is better at catching her ball, but occasionally has trouble hurling it all the way up to the top of the pegboard (a problem Liz also shares).  Then there’s the time she hurls it TOO hard, and it flies off so she has to retrieve it.  In the end it’s Ben, the one guy to never make such a mistake, who takes the victory.  Quite impressive for the guy who said he was “Operating on two hours of sleep” pre-challenge.  He tries to make an emotional moment out of it, talking about how he was doubted by his peers in his young life, and it honestly feels forced.  I appreciate his struggle, but this late in the game, we don’t need a moment like this.  It isn’t QUITE as melodramatic as Xander’s flashback on “Survivor 41”, but it feels like it’s in the same ballpark.  

This, of course, means the non-strategic Ben must now make a strategic decision.  I’d say every possibility is on the table, given that I think Ben is someone dumb enough to put himself in fire.  After talking about how winning immunity “rocks” (of course), we get another good editing bit.  Charlie rises up in the background over Ben’s shoulder, and the music switches to somber really naturally.  Ben talks about how hard it is to send one of Kenzie or Charlie to the end, given his early bond with Charlie and how nice Kenzie’s been to him this game.  For all my snark, that emotion does hit home really well.  

Less emotional is his decision with Liz!  He flat out tells Liz she’s going in because her game is too strong, showing exactly how in-tune Ben is with the strategy this season.  Liz breaks down, complaining about how everyone is seeing her game, which I only bring up because earlier this season, she was complaining about how no one was seeing her game.  There’s just no satisfying some people.  Liz does quickly buck up and go off to practice fire, however.  She does poorly, but Kenzie and Charlie don’t seem to be doing that much better.  Ben leaves it up in the air which of them he’s going to put in fire to take down Liz, though my money’s on Kenzie, since she seemed more willing to go as a resume building opportunity than Charlie is.  

Of course, ideally Ben should put Charlie in fire, and then whoever he thinks can beat Charlie, in an effort to get out what could be perceived as his biggest threat at the end, but we all know Ben doesn’t think like that.  Instead, at Tribal Council, he picks Kenzie and Liz to go in.  The fire-making itself is pretty standard, but Probst makes it worse by inserting himself into the narrative.  He mentions how the show did not provide test kits this season.  He notes that Kenzie’s issues are due to pressure.  He describes the fire triangle to the players.  Look, Probst, I enjoy your commentary more than most, but this is REALLY unnecessary.  Also yes, we get it, you were in Scouts as a kid, you don’t need to emphasize that.  

Unsurprisingly, given her various ailments, Liz looses to Kenzie, something the jury is very obvious about preferring.  Proving once and for all that Liz has absolutely zero self-knowledge, she talks about how she played the best game of anyone left, and was 100% going to win at the end, even continuing the rant into her final words.  In case it wasn’t clear, I’m not sorry to see Liz go.  With Ben at the end as well, the outcome would have been obvious, in that whoever wasn’t Liz or Ben was going to win. Now, with both Charlie and Kenzie there, there is some mystery.  Don’t misunderstand, Liz was an INCREDIBLY fun character.  She could just be a little much at times.  

Our Day 26 breakfast is interspersed both with the players practicing their opening speeches (pretty cool to see them not be 100% confident), and our jurors trying to misdirect us on who they’ll vote for.  Honestly, the juror’s answers here are mostly generic stuff that tells us very little.  Like with “Survivor 45”, some of it seems legit (Tiffany favoring Kenzie, for example), while some of it is clearly them trying to follow production’s instruction to create doubt they might vote for someone they have no intention of voting for (Q implying that Ben has a shot, for example).  Nothing offensive, but not worth deep commentary on, especially when we have a good Final Tribal Council to get to.  

Ben starts off our opening speeches, and we quickly see just how out of the running he is.  He talks about how he didn’t play strategically and was out of the loop, TRYING to tie it back into his social game.  Kenzie does a much better job, highlighting her bonds with everyone while also noting that she was willing to make moves as needed.  Charlie lands in the middle, focussing more on the strategy side of things, but not selling the emotion.  Fair enough, though I’m surprised Charlie didn’t bring up his “Always have options” philosophy, since I’d argue it’s one of the stronger points of his gameplay this season.  

Then we come to the jury, and this is normally where I’d complain about the new jury format.  Not so this time because, well, the new jury format kind of died out this season.  Yeah, Probst introduces the jury to start things off, but then only really speaks to them in order to ask who wants to speak next.  Acting as a moderator, not interjecting his own philosophy into the game, which was my main critique of that format.  The other issue I had was that a lack of individual questions made the jury itself kind of mush together, but again, not so this season.  With the exception of Liz (and I might just have missed hers) everyone DID ask one question.  Really the only difference between this and the original jury format is that people don’t stand up to ask their question, and can interject on other’s questions.  Granted I still prefer the original jury format, rather than the fact-checking we have here, but if this was to be the compromise between jury formats, I’m 100% ok with it.  

All that said, while I enjoyed this jury, people talking during other’s questions did make some of them blend together, so I’m going to be hitting the jury highlights and lowlights rather than giving a blow-by-blow of each question.  First off, major props to Tiffany for starting us off, and cutting off ANY Taylor Swift references before they start, as well as the phrase” That rocks/does not rock”.  Nice to see the jury knows how to get on my good side, at least.  

We also learn that even being on the jury cannot stop Q (who I must point out is STILL wearing the “Q-Skirt”) from trying to rewrite reality.  Asked to name a move they themselves made in the game, Ben falters by, well, not having a move.  Kenzie tries to argue that she successfully navigated the split vote after the merge, citing Q and Tiffany’s competing interests as something difficult to navigate.  This, of course, leads Q to deny ever doing this (objectively false), and starts another min-riot before Tiffany gets it back under control.  Not to say Charlie fares much better.  In fact, you could argue he did more for Kenzie than she did for herself!  Charlie tries to claim credit for the Hunter vote.  Reasonable enough, but unfortunately, Hunter is on the jury, and confirms that it was Kenzie that made him feel comfortable, thereby giving her credit for his ouster.  

Tevin asks how everyone used someone else on the jury to further their game.  Kenzie names Q once again, while Charlie gives a masterful answer in saying he used Tevin himself, noting the rift between him and Soda made him a good shield.  Normally a solid answer, but it looks like Tevin’s not buying it.  Still better than Ben who, again, doesn’t really have any sort of good answer.  The question he does best on is Q’s, who wants to know how the million dollars will change their lives.  Ben notes all the communities he’d like to help in South Florida, a nice sentiment that comes across as genuine from him.  Kenzie notes that she’ll be using the money for herself, giving her security as a small business owner.  Charlie’s is the weakest, giving some blather about “family”.  Not terrible, but Ben and Kenzie are hard acts to follow on this question.  For the final highlight, Soda asks everyone to summarize their game in 30 seconds or less, something only Kenzie is able to do successfully.  Charlie starts making some good points, but comes in a bit over the 30 second mark, preventing him from tying everything together.  And Ben’s still warming up when his 30 seconds are up.  

We do hear closing arguments from everyone this time, and it’s here where Charlie finally bring up his “Keep options open” argument I think he should have emphasized more.  And, right at the end, Ben breaks Tiffany’s “rocks” moratorium.  A funny note to cap the season on.  

Charlie’s argument was good, but it was too little, too late.  Like “Survivor 45” it was a close 5-3 vote, but once again, the woman pulls it out.  Kenzie is our victor, and I personally am THRILLED!  All due respect to Charlie, he played a good game, and arguably was more in the strategic driver’s seat than Kenzie.  He may have been perceived as Maria’s lapdog, but at lest he was making decisions.  Very few of Kenzie’s plans got carried out, and if they were, it was sometimes without her knowledge, like the Tiffany blindside.  But that said, he almost played TOO good of a game.  I’ve compared this to “Survivor Gabon” a number of times, and I stand by that comparison.  Charlie played a neat, normal game, which would contrast horribly with the overall chaotic season this ended up being.  It would be like if Charlie Herschel had won “Survivor Gabon”.  You could understand why and respect the win, but on a season like that, it wouldn’t be satisfying.  

Not to say that Kenzie was un-strategic, far from it.  She made excellent use of her relationships in the game, and schemed enough that, even if she didn’t succeed, she was perceived as a player worthy of respect.  Bhanu building her up on his journey probably helped.  As to how she fits the chaos of the season?  Well, while she usually played with her head, she could be petty and vindictive when slighted (see how she treated Q after he turned on her).  Granted, she kept that mostly in confessional, but that’s to her credit as a player.  And hey, the player dubbed “Mermaid-Dragon” is a fitting type of person to win an out-there season like this.  

All that said, I actually want to make a different comparison.  The season as a whole may be the New Era “Survivor Gabon”, but this Final Tribal, to me, is “Survivor Kaoh Rong” done right.  The final three was effectively a duel between our more strategic player who as the narrator of the season (Aubry/Charlie) versus the person who may not have had as much control, but had a simple narrative the jury could believe, and was well-connected with them socially (Michele/Kenzie).  And once again, the social player wins, re-emphasizing the social game as being paramount on this show.  Where I think this season succeeds, where Kaoh Rong fails, is that it does a better job balancing these two finalists.  Unlike Aubry, Charlie isn’t seen as the MAIN strategic driving force of the season, merely a very good player who happened to control votes near the end, so his game doesn’t come across quite as unbeatable.  Conversely, we got more emphasis on Kenzie’s relationships, making her seem more of an equal in that regard than Michele seemed to Aubry.  Granted, we probably didn’t need MULTIPLE scenes of Kenzie comforting Ben following his night terrors, but the point still stands.  Plus, this season didn’t hide key relationships Kenzie made that impacted the end of the season.  Contrast with Michele, where you’d be forgiven for thinking she and Cydney didn’t speak until the merge, despite that ACTUALLY being the driving force later on, rather than the Cydney/Aubry relationship.  

So yes, this season does a lot of good, and I thoroughly enjoyed it.  The same cannot be said for the after show, which is easily one of, if not the, worst of the New Era.  With the possible exception of Mike Turner (“Survivor 42”) no contestant has ever looked more defeated at the end than Charlie, a fact Probst notes, and talks about how rough it must be.  If you know it’s going to be hard on him, Probst, THEN WHY DON’T YOU GIVE THEM SOME TIME TO PROCESS BEFORE JUMPING STRAIGHT INTO A REUNION?!  LET THEM GRIEVE, FOR CORN’S SAKE!  

Apart from that gripe, most of the rest of the after show is fine, though a bit rushed.  We hit most of the points you’d expect.  Who voted for who, everyone going out with idols in their pockets, that sort of thing.  The one good bit I’d say was in there was Probst talking about how several terms have entered the “Survivor” lexicon from this season alone, leading to montage of key quotes past.  And there’s some deep cuts, like Sandra’s “I can get loud too!” from “Survivor Pearl Islands”, and Sue’s “Rats and Snakes” speech all the way back from “Survivor Borneo”.  Famous, to be sure, but that was over 20 years ago now.  I’m impressed the show was willing to make that callback.  About the only major ommission is “She died, dude.” from the Dead Grandma Lie, in my view.

And make no mistake, there are several things from this season that will already be sticking around for years to come in this community.  “Several”.  “BIG MISTAKE”. “Christmas is Cancelled”.  To a lesser extent, even “Q-Skirt”, “That does/does not rock”, and a reinvigoration of Applebee’s memes.  And that’s really the thing about this season: In an era known for everything blending together due to a similar format, this season stands out.  Lots of contestants who weren’t self-aware.  Things getting really personal without turning full-on ugly.  Random, crazy tangents.  You can’t mistake this for any other season, and that’s why it’s one of the greats.  Low end of greats for me (again, just below “Survivor Gabon”) due to it not going quite as far as it could, but still a really fun ride.  Yes, it cannot be denied that this season had an INCREDIBLY slow start, but given what came more towards the end, I’d say it was worth it.  

Will “Survivor 47” be the same level of fun?  Eh, I hope so, but it’s kind of hard to tell.  The cast didn’t seem bad from what we saw, just kind of generic.  Though I will admit a fondness for the guy who said his only camping experience was once in Cub Scouts, which he left early due to throwing up.  I sympathize.  

Well, with discussion of the season out of the way, let’s look back at my pre-season predictions, and see where I went right and I went wrong.  

Jem-Wrong.  Did not see her overplaying that much at all.  

Ben-Wrong.  Much more sociable, and much more longer-lived than I would have anticipated.  

Jess-She was a little more socially awkward than I predicted, but I did say she’d be out pre-merge for costing a challenge, so I’ll give myself this one.  

Bhanu-Not exactly the first out, and a messier player than I’d have guessed.  Still, I’d say I was at least somewhat close here.  Not a full on “right”, but closer to right than wrong.  

Kenzie-I’ll give myself Kenzie.  I said she was close to being a winner pick and, well, she won.  

Charlie-Wrong.  Much less nerdy and much more longer-lived than I guessed.  

Liz-Wrong.  Somehow even bigger of a personality than I anticipated, yet also much longer lived.  Blame Hunter.  

Jelinsky-Wrong, but in all fairness, who could predict Jelinsky?  

Maria-Spot on, for once.  Nailed her placement, and the reason why she’d go.  

Hunter-Wrong.  His physical game was much better than it looked, and the rest of his game, much worse.  

Moriah-She left a bit earlier than I anticipated, but I think I got her personality pretty well.  

Q-Wrong, but again, like with Jelinsky, who could have predicted anything about this guy?  Attempting to do so is a fool’s errand.  

Soda-Wrong.  I was somewhat close on her time in the game, but she was much more of a force to be reckoned with than I gave her credit for.  

Randen-Wrong, but then again, evacuations are much harder to anticipate.  

Tiffany-Wrong.  She had much more game than I thought she would.  And I’m all the happier for it.  

Tevin-Wrong.  This is the one I feel worst about.  Dude ended up being a favorite of mine this season, with a distinctive style and charm out the wazoo.  He may have lasted about as long as I thought he would, but I still give myself the loss on this one.  Not sure why I thought he’d be annoying.  It think it was his laugh in the preview.  I like everything about Tevin but his laugh.  

Venus-Right on personality, wrong on time in the game.  

Tim-Eh, kind of right.  I think I was a bit down on his chances, but he lasted about the length I thought he would, and certainly wasn’t a strategic powerhouse.  

And that about wraps up this season.  Like I said, definitely one of the greats.  Between this and my love for “Survivor 45”, we’re on a good trajectory I hope the show can keep up.  In the meantime, as we enter the off-season, keep on the lookout for more content from me.  We’ll certainly see the return of “Survivor What-Ifs?” and maybe a few other old series if I feel up to it.  

Final thing to say about this season: I’ll be driving near Charlotte NC tomorrow.  I’d better see a billboard celebrating Kenzie as I pass by.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Cast Assessment

Folks, I have an important announcement to make: Not only do we have the newly-officially-released cast of “Survivor 46” to discuss today, but the production team have also given us a rare peak behind the curtain.  A glimpse at the inner workings.  We now know the key factor it takes to get cast on this show.  The answer is: Be a gutsy idiot.  

Yes, do you value stability in your life?  Do you feel like taking the safe route when it comes to your personal finances?  Good for you, but get out of the applicant pool!  We only want people who throw away something they’ve worked toward on a wing and a prayer here!

I mock, I mock, but I do so out of love.  Honestly, good for all the people on the cast who did this.  Clearly if worked out for them, and if they’re happy (and not harming anyone in the process), then power to them, I say.  And certainly “Survivor” is no stranger to casting people like this; the list of people who’d taken major risks like this in their personal lives is innumerable for this show.  But this season really feels like they amped that up, or at least put emphasis on it.  Nearly everyone in their bio talks about changing their job to follow their passion.  Again, fair enough for them, but a bit on-the-nose as far as casting goes. Now then, snark out of the way, onto the assessment itself, starting with:

Jemila “Jem” Hussain-Adams (32, International Brand Mentor, Chicago, IL, Siga Tribe): I personally am not a fan of doing such things myself, but were I to ask an AI to write me up a “Generic Survivor Contestant Biography”, I feel like Jem’s is what it would give me.  Someone fun-loving and social.  Says they’re not interested in something if it’s not risky.  Did a fair number of extreme outdoor activities.  Lists as similar players “Boston Rob, Tony Vlachos, Kelley Wentworth”, aka “The relatively famous players most people will know by now.”  Very much gives the impression of someone semi-familiar with the show, but not a superfan.  I know this is making out Jem as someone who’s kind of bland and can’t hack it, but sometimes this stuff is all you need.  Hence, we are getting my first winner pick of the season out of the way early.  Jem does have a few specific things going for her related to her bio/photo.  She grew up in Berbice, Guyana, and her discussion of it implies that she spent at least part of her adult life there. Thus, she might be more used to the tropical climate of Fiji than we might otherwise credit her.  Based on the photo, she doesn’t look like she’ll be a challenge liability, which is always a plus.  But really, I’d say her biggest upside is that she doesn’t seem to have a major weakness.  For all the comparisons she makes, I’d compare her to “Survivor Kaoh Rong” winner Michele Fitzgerald the most.  Specifically, it’s not that she stands out, or does anything spectacularly well, but that she does nothing badly.  She’s not a challenge beast, but not weak enough to be taken out specifically for that.  She’s not a shy introvert, but not a loud, over-the-top personality either.  This season doesn’t skew quite as young as other recent ones, but has a lot of people in their “late 20’s, early 30’s”, and Jem slots right in that demographic nicely.  She’s not a game-bot, but she knows the strategy well enough to get by.  And sometimes, getting by is all you need.  Honestly, the biggest weakness of this type of game is that it can falter if the team goes to a lot of early Tribal Councils, but while there is no “disaster tribe” this season, based on the rumored divisions, there is a “strong tribe” of the season, and I see Siga rarely, if ever, going to Tribal Council pre-merge.  This gives Jem all the time she needs to integrate, and by the time of the merge, there’s bigger fish to fry.  Expect her to unexpectedly sneak to the end, only to give a banger performance at Final Tribal Council, and then sweep up far more votes than those with her would have expected.  

Ben Katzman (31, Musician, Miami, FL, Siga Tribe): Ben compares himself to Nick Wilson (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) and Cody Assenmacher (“Survivor 43”), but like with Jem, I think he misses the mark on the true comparison.  If there is a second coming of Vince Sly of “Survivor World’s Apart”, it’s this guy.  You all remember Vince, right?  The “Coconut Vendor who Seeks Truth”.  Yeah, that over-the-top character.  The beachy guy who quit a job (in this case, more professional music production) to follow his dream (in this case, just making the music he wants). Transplant Vince from the west coast to the east, and you’ve basically got Ben.  Luckily for Ben, he seems like enough of a challenge asset that, in the unlikely event that his tribe goes to Tribal Council pre-merge, he won’t be a target despite his potentially grating personality.  That said, don’t expect him to get too far.  That personality can get old fast, and while he might survive mergeatory, don’t expect him to get much past that.  An early-merge boot due to just being difficult to live with, and if there’s another “split tribal right after the merge”, I’d say that’s where his game runs out.  

Jessica “Jess” Chong (37, Software Engineer, San Francisco, CA, Yanu Tribe): I feel for Jess, I really do.  She seems very nice, and not quite as over-the-top in the whole “career change” thing as others this season (yes, she did change jobs, but she stayed in her field, just working for herself rather than a corporation).  She even has good self knowledge, comparing herself to Tai (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”), Gabby (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”), and Maryanne (“Survivor 42”).  All players I quite like.  However, despite all their good track records, they are not necessarily the formula for success on “Survivor”.  Aside from there only being one winner out of the three, this is a personality than can be hard to live with, particularly on small tribes, and unfortunately, Jess doesn’t have the luxury of being on the tribe unlikely to go to Tribal Council.  Honestly, I think her time in the game is largely going to depend on how well she individually does at challenges.  I don’t think she’s first out of her tribe either way, but if they go on a losing streak, she’s an easy pre-merge casualty.  If she only attends one or two pre-merge Tribal Councils, and doesn’t cost her tribe any challenges, then she probably makes a deep late-merge run.  Kind of a wishy-washy answer, I know.  If you put my feet to the fire, and force me to pick one, I’d sadly have to say that Jess is probably a pre-merge boot, though less due to her own faults, and more due to some people just needing to go there, and there not being a lot of obvious pre-merge fodder amongst this cast compared to some other recent ones I could name.  

Bhanu Gopal (41, IT Quality Analyst, Acton, MA, Yanu Tribe): So remember how I just said it was difficult to figure out who the pre-merge boots were this season?  Well, that goes double for predicting the first boot.  Seriously, this is the hardest time I’ve had selecting someone to be the first boot in these predictions.  Usually SOMEONE jumps out, or gives off that vibe, but this season?  I can only rely on the data, and sadly, Bhanu has a lot of data points working against him, in my view.  I’ll credit him that he’s one of the few who DOESN’T mention upending his career in his biography, which I would say would lead to more stable, consistent gameplay, normally a good thing.  But this career upending is SO pervasive this season, that I’m not sure that style of play is going to work.  In fact, it might work against Bhanu here, since his philosophy on life is so different from most of the rest of the cast.  Again, it could work given time, but time is not something I feel comfortable saying this tribe has.  Add on him comparing himself to Cochran of “Survivor South Pacific” and “Survivor Caramoan” (someone most vulnerable in the early game), and describing himself as an introvert (thus needing more time to build the relationships he’d need to survive), and there’s just a lot working against the guy.  While this is a slightly older cast on average than previous ones, 41 is still a bit outside the average.  I don’t think age will be a major factor, but if his age shows in his challenge performance, then he’s an easy early pick to go.  To me, he doesn’t look like he’ll be a challenge liability, but then again, I thought Brandon on “Survivor 45” would be good in challenges, so we see how good I am at eyeballing that particular game aspect.  Reluctantly, I must make Bhanu my pick for first boot, as he just has too much against him.  I hope I’m wrong, however.  

Kenzie Petty (29, Salon Owner, Charlotte, NC, Yanu Tribe): Kenzie quickly won her way into my heart by being an avowed “Settlers of Catan” fan.  Now, winning your way to my heart won’t necessarily make me give you good odds at going deep in the game, but even taking my feelings out of it as much as possible, I give Kenzie decent odds.  Again, bearing in mind my previous comments about me not being good at picking who’s going to be good in challenges, Kenzie seems like she at least won’t be a liability.  While she is loud and a stand-out, both in personality and looks, it’s not so much so that it would strike me as grating, and I see there being more valuable targets to take out on Yanu.  Unless they go full disaster (which, despite my earlier comments, I have my doubts), Kenzie probably sticks around for a good bit.  Kenzie also does a good job balancing the free-spiritedness of the cast as a whole with practicality, since her “job story” is less about leaving a job for another one than it is not doing as much pre-planning when seizing an opportunity presented.  Like I said before, I’d normally consider such a jump a liability, but with this cast, it should vibe well, and comes across to me as less inherently risky.  As long as she has some good game sense, Kenzie should stick around until the mid-to-late merge.  Honestly, the fact that she DOES stand out in a couple of aspects is the only thing stopping me from making her a winner pick.  

Charlie Davis (26, Law Student, Boston, MA, Siga Tribe): Charlie is a nerd through-and-through, and wears it on his sleeve.  Don’t believe me?  He compares himself to Spencer Bledsoe (“Survivor Cagayan”) and Christian Hubicki (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  If only he had thrown in Cochran, he’d have hit the “nerd” trifecta.  Self-knowledge is a good thing for sure, and the upside for Charlie is that he’s on the tribe I don’t see visiting Tribal Council much, if at all.  Prove yourself in a puzzle or two, and you’re probably set for the merge.  The downside for Charlie is that, with his nerd-dom on his sleeve, everyone else can see it too.  With “Survivor 44” and Carson being particularly fresh in everyone’s minds for this season, I doubt anyone is going to let him get super-close to the end.  Hence, Charlie is probably an easy target in the early-merge, and goes somewhere in there.  Not much more to say about him than that.  Nice guy, but an archetype we know well, and fairly predictable in how he’ll do as a result.  

Liz Wilcox (35, Marketing Strategist, Orlando, FL, Nami Tribe): Yes, lest you thought “Survivor” was going to shake things up, there are still three tribes this season.  It just took us until Liz to actually talk about someone from Nami.  And as the first representative of her tribe… Liz isn’t the best.  She looks like another fun nerd, though she compares herself to Russell (presumably Hantz of “Survivor Samoa”) and Sandra (“Survivor Pearl Islands”), neither of which seem like a fit for her from how she describes herself.  Neither of them strike me as “Fun-seeking” or “Growth-minded”.  Also don’t know if she’s just not a big fan of the show and has thus only heard of some of the bigger names, or just really loves “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”.  Either is plausible, quite frankly.  Liz has a great story about overcoming a fear of public speaking and general social awkwardness.  Great for her, and while it means she probably has good social skills that she’s learned, one tends to revert to one’s personal habits in a deprivation situation, so I could see those not being as honed as Liz normally has them.  If she does do that, she’s in trouble.  Any sort of social awkwardness is a reason to get someone out, and Liz is also one of the few challenge sinks I see on this season, so I don’t see much reason to keep her around if they attend Tribal Council at all.  I don’t think she’s the very first boot, but definitely another pre-merger.  And we will be all the sadder for it.  

David “Jelinsky” Jelinsky (22, Slot Machine Salesman, Las Vegas, NV, Yanu Tribe): In the contest of “Who did the craziest/riskiest thing with their life this season”, I think I have to give the award to Jelinsky here.  While lots of other people changed careers, or up-sticks and moved without much of a plan, Jelinsky outright dropped out of high school.  Folks who wanted non-college-educated people on the show, you got your wish.  Jelinsky does have several things working in his favor this season.  Chief amongst them is that he’s a young, athletic guy on a season without a lot of those.  Pre-merge, at least, that makes him valuable, especially since he’s on a tribe with a bit of a dearth of strength.  A career in sales, as we’ve seen with several recent contestants, can be good preparation for the show.  And amongst his contestant comparisons, he lists a number of players who saw success with “playing dumb”, something that, between the looks he has and the skill set he has, is a pretty good strategy for him to take up.  That said, Jelinsky does also have a few red flags that seriously hurt his chances in the game.  The big one is age.  Like I said, this season skews slightly older than more recent seasons have.  Now, early 20’s isn’t that far off from late 20’s, but it’s still a gap Jelinsky will have to bridge, and if he’s perceived as too much of a “kid”, a la Xander of “Survivor 41”, it may not matter how good of a game he plays, as no one on the jury will respect it.  Secondly, and this may be me reading too much into things, but Jelinsky strikes me as having a bit of an ego.  Maybe it’s his asking to be referred to by his last name, maybe it’s how he talks about himself in the third person, but this strikes me as a guy who won’t be quiet, and thus rub others the wrong way.  His strength being a necessary asset, plus his salesman skills, probably carry him through to the merge, but expect him to be the mergeatory or early merge boot, due to these red flags.  

Maria Shrime Gonzales (48, Parent Coach, Dallas, TX, Siga Tribe): Right away, the thing that stands out about Maria is her age.  This cast may not skew as young as more recent casts do, but even then, Maria is a bit without peer.  There’s a couple of other players in their 40’s, but it’s EARLY 40’s for them, meaning Maria’s closest peers in this game, by age, are still seven years apart.  Not an insurmountable gap, but one she’ll have to overcome.  On top of that, she seems less “free-spirited” than the rest of the cast, as she’s notably one of the few who didn’t mention upending their life to follow their dream.  She’s still driven and has values, of course, but she seems a bit more circumspect about going through it rather than just winging it and seeing what happens.  Add onto that her very much exuding the “mom” archetype, which has traditionally been a very “all or nothing” type in terms of how they do, and you’ve got a recipe for a player with high risk in the early game.  Luckily for Maria, she’s placed on Siga, the tribe I would say is least likely to attend a pre-merge Tribal Council.  IF they do, look for Maria to be in trouble, but I don’t see that happening. Historically, once the mom archetype makes the merge, they tend to do quite well, and I don’t anticipate Maria being an exception to that.  She seems to have enough game acumen and enough of a level head to play well.  As we saw last season, however, the finally hurdle for this archetype is getting past the “being too likable” issue, and I don’t see Maria avoiding that.  She’ll be taken out either in the finale or just before it as a jury threat, but still, expect a deep post-merge run from Maria.  Sometimes a good hand is all you need.  

Hunter McKnight (28, Science Teacher, French Camp, MS, Nami Tribe): I went back and forth between two people for whom I would give my second winner pick two, but ultimately, after much agonizing, I have settled on it being Hunter.  I don’t know, the dude reminds me of Tommy Sheehan (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), and that means “winner energy” for me.  I don’t know, maybe it’s just them both being teachers, maybe it’s the reddish hair, but I have to keep reminding myself that Hunter is not Tommy.  Hey, if you’re gonna remind me of a previous player, a skilled winner is hardly a bad one.  Not that Hunter’s personal pick for comparison is bad either.  He went with Hayden (“Survivor Blood vs. Water”), which I appreciate for being a bit of a deep cut into “Survivor” history at this point, but one with a decent strategic record (albeit no victory).  Hunter is also another one I’d say is more reasonable in dropping something in life to pursue a passion, since in Hunter’s case he dropped further study to go back and teach in his hometown.  Dropping out for an established, stable career, even one not as well-paying, speaks to a good bit of common sense that can serve him well in the game.  That said, it’s enough “free-spirited-ness” that it won’t be off-putting to the rest of his cast.  All in all, Hunter is a very well-rounded player, and thus one I expect to do quite well.  Granted, between my two picks, I would go with Jem over Hunter, only because I had to agonize more over his pick where Jem felt quite natural, but again, not knocking Hunter.  Dude’s got skills.  

Moriah Gaynor (28, Program Coordinator, San Diego, CA, Siga Tribe): Every tribe these days has to have their designated “nerd”, and Moriah is that for Siga (guess Saga gets two, since Charlie is also here).  That said, I Weill give her credit that she doesn’t wear it as much on her sleeve as the likes of, say, Liz or Charlie this season.  The neediness is there, but more subdued, only coming out in things like the occasional D&D reference.  Being low-key is hardly bad with such small numbers, and couple that with Moriah being on a tribe likely to win a lot of early challenges, she should be sticking around for quite a while, barring an epic challenge fail.  That said, there’s also not a lot to recommend Moriah overall.  Again, nothing bad, nothing detrimental.  But there just doesn’t seem to be that spark, that zest, that drive to go the extra mile to win that the truly spectacular players have.  This to my mind lends Moriah to a solid, but nondescript mid-merge finish.  A solid alliance member, but not a leader, and her exit will not be majorly mourned by most of the community.  

Q Burdette (29, Real Estate Agent, Memphis, TN, Yanu Tribe): Fun fact, this is the first given name in US “Survivor” to start with a Q.  This is also the other guy I was considering for my second winner pick.  In Q’s case, it’s less data based than Hunter’s was, and more about the vibes.  I dunno, some pictures just scream “charming” to me, and Q did just that.  He’s my personal favorite of the season, and despite a relatively bare-bones bio, I quite like him.  I can’t quite say it’s “generic” as there’s a few turns of phrase and bits of info here and there that catch the eye, but the dude seems to have put the minimum effort into what he wrote.  He also gave the lame answer of “Bits and pieces from a lot of players” when asked who he was most like.  That may very well be true, but still, a cop out in my book.  I could talk about the real estate skills being helpful on the show, but that has a bit less impressive a track record than regular sales that I talked about a bit ago, so I’m not sure how much it applies.  Still, Q is a dark horse to win based on charm alone, and I expect him to stick around until the late merge, if not making the finale.  Really, only his lack of concrete data to back up the vibes keeps him out of a proper winner pick.  

Soda Thompson (27, Special Ed. Teacher, Lake Hopatcong, NJ, Nami Tribe): Everyone, we now have a real-life Disney Princess on our season.  Seriously, her risk-taking moment is marrying a guy she hadn’t known for very long; the quintessential Disney Princess move!  Ok, in fairness to Soda, she knew this guy for a much more reasonable six months, and it appears to have worked out, so hey, power to them.  While Q just before may have had the lamest answer to “Which former player are you most like?”, Soda probably wins the award for the weirdest.  Her answer?  “Survivor 42”.  No player, just the season.  What, so you’re like the entire cast rolled into one?  Those are some pretty disparate personalities you’re combining, then.  My take on this is that Soda, more so than anyone this season, doesn’t really know the show that well, and just conjured up a recent bit that she remembered.  This makes me question if she really knows the game at all, and if she can apply her skills where needed.  Look, I’m not going to act like foreknowledge of the game is a REQUIREMENT to do well.  The likes of Yul (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Earl (“Survivor Fiji”) are a testament that it’s not.  But couple that with Soda just seeming generally “nice” (she lists her hobbies as “Singing, taking walks, and doing random crafts”), and I have to think she doesn’t have the cutthroat hard core needed to make a deep run.  Add on her not looking like she’ll be great in challenges, and you’ve got a recipe for a pre-merge boot.  Sorry, Soda.  You seem nice, but I don’t think the game is for you.  

Randen Montalvo (41, Aerospace Tech, Orlando, FL, Nami Tribe): I strongly, STRONGLY suggest that Randen focus on his military career when discussing what he does with his tribe, rather than mentioning the aerospace thing.  Again, this cast played fresh off the finale of “Survivor 44”, so they saw Carson dominate in puzzles, and nearly win, were it not for fire-making.  He mentions the word “aerospace” to this cast, and he’ll be out faster than a supersonic jet.  Luckily, I think Randen is smart enough to keep that under wraps.  Dude does not look like the sort of guy you’d expect to be an engineer, but if he’s smart enough to be one, he’s smart enough to downplay those smarts, if that makes sense.  Add in some good physicality on a tribe that’s probably going to badly need some physical power for the challenges, and you’ve got a recipe for a decent length run.  Randen probably goes out somewhere in the mid-merge area, since I see enough fellow smart people on this season to suss him out, but early on, at least, he should be fine.  

Tiffany Nicole Ervin (33, Artist, Elizabeth, NJ, Yanu Tribe): Hoo boy.  Some people, their bio just SCREAMS “early boot”.  I can see why Tiffany was cast, though.  She’s a bright, bubbly personality, but that’s where the trouble starts.  Tiffany explains that her friends describe her as “living in a land of rainbows and unicorns”, though she disagrees.  Given her tone in her writing, however, I’m inclined to agree with her friends.  The sort of personality that pops on tv, but probably not the best fit for a treacherous game like “Survivor”.  On top of that, Tiffany admits she likes to play things risky, playing the lottery often in real life.  Again, understandable why that would do well on tv (big moves and all that), but probably not the smartest in terms of overall gameplay.  Unless her tribe has some MAJOR challenge sinks who need to go before her, expect her to go somewhere in the pre-merge.  Again, sorry Tiffany.  You seem nice, but “nice” doesn’t win “Survivor”.  

Tevin Davis (24, Actor, Richmond, VA, Nami Tribe): Fun fact about theater kids: We can sense each other a mile away.  You probably remember Tevin from the season preview.  He was the guy with long hair who screamed upon being given his buff.  I took one look at him and thought “theater kid”.  Sure enough, his bio comes out a few weeks later and confirms it.  Tevin is definitely a loud personality, which on a small tribe can be a problem.  That said, he’s also a young, fit guy on a season where, as mentioned previously, those are in short supply.  His tribe is going to need that, so expect Tevin to stick around for a decent length of time, barring that his tribe goes into being a complete disaster.  Tevin’s acting skills (as in toning down his loud personality) combined with his strength probably get him through to the merge, but there’s only so long you can tone down your personality. Once Tevin opens up, probably during the early merge, he’s going to get grating fast.  Combine that with the threat of an individual immunity run, and Tevin is probably out in the early-to-mid merge, due to being too threatening and too grating.  He will definitely stand out on our screens the whole time, however.  Also, this has literally no bearing on how he’ll do in the game, but I wanted to mention that while he’s currently from Richmond, VA, his hometown is listed as “Goochland, VA”, and childishly, I find that incredibly amusing.  

Venus Vafa (24, Data Analyst, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Nami Tribe): Just when you thought that “Survivor” would learn the threat that Canadian players pose, here comes Venus.  And as if there already wasn’t an uphill battle for Canadians on this show after multiple successful performances, you put on a Canadian who looks woefully unprepared for the game ahead!  Venus seems very worldly, aka “not going to do well in the outdoors”.  She seems like a city girl through and through, and there’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but it does call into question how well she can hack it in the wilderness.  On top of that, when you compare yourself to a character from “Mean Girls”, that implies the starting of much drama.  Good for tv, bad for chances in the game, particularly with the smaller tribe size of the modern era.  That said, I will give Venus two points in her favor.  One is good self-knowledge, since she lists the players she’s most like as being Parvati (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Cirie (“Survivor Exile island”), who if you’re someone who’s not going to be the greatest in the outdoors, well, they pretty much wrote the playbook on how to do well in spite of that.  Assuming the comparison is apt 9which I get the sense it is) Venus does have some good social skills to call upon.  Also in her favor is that, while she’s by no means a challenge beast, she seems competent enough that I don’t see her costing her tribe a challenge, or being the first target if/when they do lose.  Unless she really makes a stink about how hard the elements are for her, I’d expect her to be a late pre-merge, early post-merge boot, depending on how much they do go to Tribal Council.  Not good enough to hack it long term, but at least good enough to survive a few votes.  

Tim Spicer (31, College Coach, Atlanta, GA, Siga Tribe): Rounding out our cast is Tim, who I would argue gives the most questionable answer to any of the bio questions in the entire cast.  Who does he say he’s most like as a player?  Shamar from “Survivor Caramoan”.  Now, as a super fan, I applaud the deep cut from “Survivor” history, and that may be the first time Shamar has gotten a mention since he initially played.  But, Tim, do you REMEMBER Shamar’s game?  Is that REALLY who you want to emulate?  Not exactly setting yourself up for success.  Now, in fairness to Tim, knowledge of game history is generally a good thing, and it MAY just be a bit of an inside joke, given that his previous answer involved an anecdote about gluing his eye shut.  But if it’s not, and Tim emulates his game style, then the only reason he isn’t a pre-merge boot is because his tribe seems unlikely to attend Tribal council in the pre-merge. Dude’s largely unremarkable outside of that one answer, and if the Shamar thing is just a joke, he’s a late-merge boot.  If it ISN’T a joke, he’s an early-merge boot.  Thus, in the spirit of compromise, I’ll split the difference and declare Tim a likely mid-merge boot.  

And that about wraps it up for this cast!  For all my jokes, honestly, this one seems kind of underwhelming.  Hardly an unlikeable cast, and with only one or two exceptions, I had something of substance to say about all of them.  But while I vibed with a couple of people, none of them also really grabbed me like other seasons have.  I doubt it’ll be a BAD season, and there’s always room for me to be proven wrong, but if you’re looking for this to be a legendary season, I’m not holding my breath.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Finale: Bad at Math

There are many skills one needs to be able to win “Survivor”.  Social skills, obviously.  Strategic skills never go amiss.  Skill at finding small objects in the woods is becoming more and more of a valuable tool.  And even basic survival skills still matter, at least a bit.  But one underrated skill is being good at math.  And if you don’t believe that helps on “Survivor”, go back and watch the trials and tribulations of Brad Culpepper on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”.  Man literally leaves because of math.  

After our requisite “ooh”-ing and “aah”-ing at the new camp, we get down to business.  Austin is, of course, rather stunned at Dee leaving him out of the vote, and it’s here we see that Austin’s math skills are a bit wanting.  He talks about having “two number ones”, something that is mathematically impossible in this context.  Still, the dude takes it all in stride.  Perhaps a little TOO in stride.  He acknowledges the “Dee lied to me” portion, but chooses to focus more on the “Dee is still here” portion.  Is he lovesick, or just that chill?  Either way, his chances in the game plummet with each frame.  All is well between the lovers, though, who share a long cuddle on the beach.  

Such a cuddle does not go unnoticed by the others, with Julie joking about sending out a party to let them know they won’t sleep until they come back.  Katurah is a bit sharper in her criticism, noting correctly that a duo is bad for her game, and needs one of them to go.  Probably Dee for being a big jury threat.  Hey, Katurah is finally channeling that anti-Bruce energy into a more strategical-sound place!  Only took all season!

Morning, of course, brings a scramble for a challenge advantage.  Honestly, this scavenger hunt is kind of lame, basically being a repeat of the “Waambulance” challenge from “Survivor Exile Island”.  Run out, find and count the things, use them to solve a combination lock, if you’re wrong you have to go back out for another look.  Take away the ropes course part, and this is a scaled-down copy.  Not the worst challenge, but hardly exciting.  

Everyone talks about the scramble for finding the things, and Dee and Austin collude with one another, but it’s Jake’s slow and steady approach that wins the day, and consequently gets the most focus.  It helps that the mnemonic device was on the editors could have fun with, since Jake associated the number with the winners of the respective season.  Hence, the combination was JT (“Survivor Tocantins”), Gabler (“Survivor 43”), Denise (“Survivor Philippines”), with appropriate clips being shown in the background for each.  As such, he wins the challenge advantage.  

Seems this episode has a thing for combination locks, because they come back in our immunity challenge as well!  They’re also Jake’s advantage, since the numbers are revealed by hurling sandbags into baskets, and Jake starts with two revealed (everyone has a different combination, so peeking off Jake won’t help).  It’s otherwise your standard obstacle course, with the only other point of note being the puzzle at the end.  It’s the Michele Fitzgerald puzzle, first seen on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”.  You know the one.  It always gets kicked down upon completion.  

This season upholds that tradition.  Austin narrowly wins over Jake, in part due to the latter missing a puzzle piece.  Probst, of course, rubs salt in this proverbial wound, though Austin makes up for it by taking Jake along for the “reward” portion of the challenge, a steak meal at The Sanctuary.  Frankly I’m surprised.  The move certainly makes strategic sense (keep your number one ally with two likely boots to make sure you get the scoop on all discussions), but so lovestruck is Austin, I fully expect him to pick Dee.  

Good for Jake getting some food in him, though.  Like I said at the end of last blog, the man is not completely out of it for winning, but really needs things to go right for him.  And that starts with him playing his idol correctly in order to idol out a threat, preferably Dee.  In order to do this, it’s best if no one (save possibly Katurah) knows about it… And then Jake starts spilling his guts about it to Austin.  Yeah, see why I don’t give this guy great odds?  Worse still is his stated intention to target Julie.  Not a bad one, but again, I think Dee might be the better bet, at least in terms of jury clout.  

Luckily for Jake, Katurah is there to talk him out of it.  She makes a good argument for targeting Dee, and Jake agrees to switch his vote.  After telling Katurah about his idol, the pair agree to draw votes onto Jake, then have their two be a majority with Jake’s negated votes.  

Unluckily for the pair, Austin immediately spills to Dee about Jake’s idol.  Again, great move, dude!  About the only bright spot is that Julie doesn’t believe that Jake’s idol is real, and so is going to stick voting him.  Dee plans to stick on Katurah, the backup plan, leaving Austin in the air.  With votes split this way, even if Austin votes with one of Dee or Julie, you can still get a majority with the idol played correctly.  As long as nothing else goes wrong for Jake.  

But no!  Even Jake’s professed allies cannot be counted upon!  Worried about Jake being flaky (which Jake has many faults in this game, but flakiness is not among them, from what we’ve seen), Katurah makes him swear on his grandmother to vote for Dee.  Because nothing bad has ever happened on “Survivor” when people swear on their grandmother.  

If I haven’t made it clear already, voting out Dee is the correct move for basically everybody.  Gets rid of a jury threat, and while Julie and Austin would lose a close ally, numbers are small enough now that it doesn’t really matter.  Do I think it will happen?  Not with a vote this fractured, but we’ll see.  

Tribal Council is sadly a boring affair pre-vote.  Standard double talk, and not even an honorable mention for fun moment.  That is, until we vote.  The vote is genuinely up in the air, plus there is Jake’s idol to consider.  Say what you will about Jake, but the dude is a showman through and through.  He makes a big deal about his idol play, busting out a Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”) impression along the way.  Gotta say, it was a spot-on impression.  Confusingly, he plays it for Katurah.  At this point in the game, I’d have played it for myself, but I guess Jake’s reading the room that votes are going for Katurah?  

If so, he’s reading them badly.  Katurah does get one vote from Dee, eliciting a fun happy reaction from Jake.  Then Jake gets a vote, eliciting a pissed reaction from Jake.  The next two votes, going for Dee and Julie, just elicit confusion, with the final vote going for Julie.  I am sorry to see her go.  She was surprisingly strategic, and brought a certain charm to the proceedings as a whole.  You will be missed, Julie.  

Because having Emily be confrontational right out the gate wasn’t enough fights for the season, we have to squeeze one more in right before the Final Immunity Challenge.  Really, Jake and Katurah need to unite to hope to take out Dee or Austin.  Granted, that just amounts to “Win Final Immunity” at this point, but still, unity would be nice.  Instead, the two start throwing the blame around for why that vote didn’t go the way they wanted.  Jake is upset at swearing on his grandmother and Katurah backing out of it anyway, while Katurah is upset at Jake playing his idol incorrectly, leading to her not voting out the person she wanted gone anyway.  Frankly, both of them come off looking bad here.  Jake, you’re a superfan, you should know what swearing on a loved one means in this game (read, not much).  Yeah Katurah kind of burned you, but this reaction seems over-the-top, and disproportionate to the situation.  Don’t think you’re getting off though, Katurah.  Yes, Jake could have communicated more with you, but that’s a two-way street, so you’re not blameless.  Moreover, you’re in control of your own vote, and if you thought you were going regardless, why not throw a vote on Dee on the way out, just to say you tried.  It’s true you didn’t MAKE Jake do anything (applied a lot of pressure, certainly, but never forced), but by the same token, Jake did not make you do anything either.  Don’t throw your bad moves onto him.  He has enough of his own.  

Really, all this scene does is show the audience more clearly why an anti-Reba movement never really fostered at Belo.  Too much infighting and mistrust for them to work together.  

Our final immunity challenge, like the first immunity challenge, is nothing to write home about.  Stack seventeen bowls, which can be knocked over by wobbling a frame you step through.  Pretty standard challenge at this point, but at least it isn’t “Simmotion” again, so I’ll take it.  

The only major thing of note in this challenge relates, unsurprisingly, to Jake.  He and Dee are the two frontrunners in the challenge, with Austin and Katurah knocking their stack over often.  Jake, however, slips up, leading to the need to recollect his pots.  So many pots that it takes multiple trips.  Jake then gets the idea to walk atop the frame, rather than through it, for a faster time when jostling doesn’t matter.  

What DOES matter is structural integrity, since Probst warns Jake that if he breaks the challenge, he’s out.  Sure enough, a few moments later, the structure snaps, all but assuring Dee’s victory.  Jake’s salty in the moment, but that warning seemed pretty clear, and it looked like Jake had the chance to correct what he was doing.  Would have been best if this had been said before the challenge, but even so, this loss is squarely on Jake.  Probst doesn’t call this out as a “Survivor” first… and rightly so.  Yeah, this is the most blatant it’s been, but there’s been at least one time someone “broke” a challenge, leading to their disqualification.  The final 8 of “Survivor Africa” had an immunity challenge where you had to build a fire to burn a rope.  If you hit the rope with your supplies, you were disqualified.  Brandon did so, and got disqualified.  Good on Probst for remembering at least some of the show’s history, even if he didn’t talk about about.  

Dee wins, in case it wasn’t clear.  Wonder how the long toe helped in this one?  In any case, Dee and her toe must now decide who goes into fire.  There’s not much mystery, since she quickly settles on taking Austin to the end based on their relationship.  Annoyingly, the meta of fire-making being part of one’s “resume” comes up, with both Jake and Austin asking to go into fire.  Katurah’s the only one who resists, perhaps explaining why I like her in spite of some poor strategic moves on her part.  It’s to no avail, however, as Dee is worried about Katurah being a social threat on the jury, the one type of threat I would say Katurah is.  Thus, she wants her out, and believes Jake best-equipped to do it.  

But didn’t Jake almost faint into the fire early on this season?  Not sure he’s the best in fire.  Neither is Austin, who pitches to be put in as being better equipped to take out Katurah. This idea seems to have a bit of merit, as when Austin checks on Jake, the man has no fire, and seems checked out of continuing to try.  A decent-enough misdirect, but Dee’s too smart for that.  With how they’ve been able to get basically nothing going, this would not be enough to put either Katurah or Jake over the top for some jury votes.  Austin is more well-liked and had more agency, so it MIGHT be bad to have him do fire.  

Sure enough, that’s what happens.  Yeah, there’s discussion at Tribal Council, but once again, nothing of merit.  Katurah and Jake go into fire, and while not a blowout victory, Katurah’s repeated smothering of her fire means Jake eventually wins.  Once again, the methodical approach takes off.  Jake finally got his “W”, and he and Probst take a moment to bask in it.  Jake talks about how far he’s come since he was an underconfident 15-year-old.  We then go to Katurah, leading to this conversation:

PROBST: Katurah, what does this game mean to you?

KATURAH: Well Jeff, to me it means I never told anyone I was a lawyer.  

I’m kidding, but only slightly.  It DOES turn into Katurah using this as the lawyer reveal, we get our shocked reactions, and we move on.  

Continuing on the efficiency kick this episode has been doing, we cut between our final three breakfast and “jury speaks” videos.  Our contestants themselves don’t lay out the arguments, instead talking about their relationship with each juror.  Instead, the jurors make the arguments.  Jake overcame the greatest odds to be there, as the only non-Reba to make finals.  Dee was well-liked, and able to maneuver behind the scenes, and Austin was generally the most overtly social of the three.  Which will win out will likely come down to their arguments.  That said, Jake still seems on the outs.  I have to make note that he said “I took myself here.”  Sure, Jake.  Sure you did.

Weirdly, we don’t get opening statements this time.  Perhaps they were filmed but not shown?  Doesn’t really matter this time, as we get some good arguments from all parties this time around, and I’d dare to say the “New Jury Format” is the best it’s ever been!  Sure, it’s still more of a group discussion, and no one’s called up to speak, but every juror asks basically one question, and Probst doesn’t really contribute to the proceedings.  It’s the original jury format without all the showmanship, and a bit less equal speaking time (Emily speaks a bit more than once, and Bruce says basically nothing).  If this is the compromise needed, I’ll gladly take it!

Unfortunately, for all I like this new, balanced format, none of the questions really stand out.  Like I say, it all comes down to the arguments.  Jake gets built up by the jury initially, and really pushes the narrative of him lasting this long.  It’s his best card, and he does a good job arguing it.  

Sadly for him, it’s clear the jury largely see Dee and Austin as the power-players of the season.  Weirdly, the two remain cordial for a good chunk of the Tribal.  Dee gives Austin co-credit on most moves, and Austin argues for Dee better than Dee herself, being the first one to bring up her not bringing him in on the Drew vote.  Austin’s advantages get praised, but so do Dee’s social skills.  When they DO start going after each other, however, it’s tit for tat.  Austin puts a feather in his cap about strengthening the Reba alliance with Emily, Dee brings up bringing in Katurah.  Dee talks about orchestrating Kendra’s ouster, Austin brings up orchestrating Kellie’s ouster.  Back and forth the two go, though Dee does seem to claim a slight edge by noting that Austin told her about the Julie plan the night Emily went home, while she did not do the same for Austin on the Drew boot.  Seems like a close debate between the two, but given this better line of argument coming out at the end, I’d give the edge to Dee.  

The votes reflect this.  Kaleb gives Jake some false hope by calling out “J!” In the voting booth, a la Jonathan Penner’s “DENISE!” On “Survivor Philippines”, but ends up being a Dee vote.  A decently fun call back for the audience, but I’ve gotta imagine a bit hurtful to Jake in the moment.  Credit to this season: It’s not a 7-1 slam-dunk this time.  Indeed, it almost looks like a tie, but it ends up being 5-3 in favor of Dee.  Probably the right call.  Both had their strategic gems, but with how lovesick Austin became toward the end, Dee was clearly the superior choice.  The votes for Austin come from Drew (presumably for being his close ally), Kendra (for being more social/simpatico with Austin), and Bruce (there is no fathoming how Bruce’s mind works, particularly when we don’t hear from him on the jury basically at all).  A solid outcome on what ends up being a great season.  But I’m getting ahead of myself.  We still have a couple of things to cover before my summation.  

Our reunion show, despite my preference for the old format, is decently solid.  We hit on most of the topics one would hope to hear about.  Dee and Austin’s relationship.  Emily’s growth.  Kaleb’s shot in the dark play.  All that sort of thing.  One interesting bit is Probst bringing up the fact that Austin was an alternate this season, getting called in last-minute.  A bit of trivia common-knowledge amongst the superfans, but probably not as well-known to the casual audience.  Moreover, Probst talks about some other contestants who were also alternates, bringing up Tina Wesson (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) and Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  He notes that there seems to be something successful about being an alternate.  He of course fails to mention that Amy O’Hara (“Survivor Guatemala”) and Spencer Duhm (“Survivor Tocantins”) were ALSO alternates, and had much less success, but I suppose that doesn’t fit his narrative, and Probst wants to forget that Guatemala exists.  Still, fun trivia for the uninformed.  

Also, next season looks ok.  Seeing the audition video clips is fun, but otherwise nothing to write home about.  I’m not concerned about “Survivor 46”, but I’m not jumping out of my seat to get to it either.  

Really, there’s only two major omissions in terms of what we discuss.  One would be asking about why Little Lulu was such a disaster of a tribe, presumably omitted for the lack of Lulu left, apart from Emily and Kaleb, and another knock against the new reunion format.  The other, which I’m surprised they didn’t talk about, or at least didn’t show, was how Jake would have voted if it HAD been a tie.  He himself seemed a bit unsure, but if I were to speculate, I’d say he’d go Austin.  He seemed closer to working with him than he did with Dee at times.  Still, who knows?

We end off this episode, much like it began, with a whimper.  I’ll save my season thoughts overall for after we check back on my pre-season cast assessment.  As for this episode, it was just ok.  I was never bored or angry at it, but I was never particularly thrilled either.  It came in, did its job adequately and efficiently, and then left.  Not bad for your standard episode, but kind of ho-hum for your big finale.  As such, let us more to the more exciting cast assessment comparison!

Austin: Wrong initially, though I became more right as the season progressed.  He WAS good at using his appearance and demeanor to hide how devious he could be, until his lovesickness got the better of him, and he became the mask, as it were.  

Brandon: My wish came true, even if my prediction didn’t.  In my defense, I didn’t think Brandon would be THAT bad at challenges, and had I known, I’d have given him much worse odds.  Still, unequivocally wrong here.  

Emily: Wrong, and thankfully so.  Her personal growth was a highlight of the season.  

Brando: The closest yet to being right.  His tribe was not the disaster I predicted (though once they started going to Tribal, they kind of ended up that way anyway), but he placed about exactly where I thought he would.  

Hannah: Mostly right, though I didn’t call the quit.  Though really, who could?

Bruce: I nailed his personality, and the reasons he would have an issue with the other players, but partly due to avoiding Tribal Council so long, he lasted much longer than I expected.  

J. Maya: She left for basically the reasons I expected, but earlier than I anticipated.  Partially right on this one.  

Drew: Sort of the opposite sibling to J. Maya.  I again nailed the personality, but Drew lasted longer than I anticipated in spite of that.  

Julie: Flat out wrong.  She had much more game, and was much more tempered in her confessionals, than I had anticipated.  

Jake: Well, I did call him a dark horse to win, and he DID make it to the end.  He had no shot at said end, but even so, I’ll give myself this one.  

Katurah: Wrong, though it would be hard to anticipate the single-minded anti-Bruce focus that arguably tanked her game.  

Kaleb: Dead right, for once this season.  

Kellie: Completely wrong.  Much more of a presence than I expected, and much longer-lasting.  

Sifu: He couldn’t adjust his personality to the others, and was out earlier than I thought as a result.  Another wrong assessment for me.  

Kendra: Yet another for the “right on personality, wrong on time in the game” pile.  

Sean: He may not be the WORST winner pick of “Idol Speculation”, but he’s definitely a top contender.  Again, if I’d known he’d be THAT bad in challenges, I’d probably have changed my rankings.  And again, hard to anticipate a quit.  

Sabiyah: Another of my few right calls this time around.  

Dee: Wrong.  Girl had the skills to back up her talk that I simply did not call.  

And there you have it.  Ranking this season on the heels of “Survivor 44” is a bit interesting, since I would say they have the same flaw.  Namely, one power alliance goes through to nearly the end basically unopposed.  Yet, I found it frustrating then, but don’t mind it here.  A lot of that, I think, boils down to the 90-minute format.  This allowed time for building more decoy winners, and giving us a larger sense of who the cast was and why they did what they did, than 44 could have allowed.  Yes, the last few episodes were a bit of a slog, and knowing the outcome does drag the season down, but everything up through the final seven boot was overall so great that I’d still call this a top-tier season!  That said, it’s the lower end of top-tier due to the Reba 4 never being stopped.  They had more plausible opportunity to be stopped, and their gameplay more subtle, which I think makes the outcome a bit easier to swallow than on 44.  

If you’re curious as to where exactly I’d rank this, I’d put it around the same level as “Survivor 42”, the other “New Era” season I’d consider top-tier.  Frankly I could see arguments for putting one over the other for both sides, and I think it comes down to whether you prefer a season with more developed players all around, but a more predictable outcome, or a more mysterious outcome at the cost of some characters being forgettable.  As someone who puts a lot of emphasis on rewatch value, I’d favor the latter, giving “Survivor 42” the edge, but I would not argue with anyone who prefers the reverse.  

In any case, feel free to let me know what you thought of this season below, as we await “Survivor 46”.  I’ll be taking my break for now, but look for me when the new cast is announced, and the discussion resumes!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Cambodia

Quick, gotta get one of these out before the next season’s cast gets announced, which I’m betting will be in the next week or two at the time of this writing.  Better be a pretty simple change, preferably from a season I know pretty well… Yep, Cambodia will do nicely.  

Before I delve into the change we’ll be exploring, however, there are a couple of notes that should be given out.  Firstly, I myself did not TRULY come up with this scenario.  Credit for that goes to the “Survivor” YouTuber Peridiam, whose content I quite enjoy.  I’ll go into more detail when I discuss the change itself, but suffice to say, he informed me of something I did not previously know about in a recent video, and that led to the creation of this scenario you’ll be reading about.  Thus, it’s fair to say this is really his idea, rather than mine.  

The other note is the usual warning about SPOILERS!  Given the nature of this season as a second chance for non-winners, I’ll not only be discussing the outcome from Cambodia on for the sake of comparison, I’ll also be spoiling a lot of earlier seasons as well.  Thus, be wary should you read ahead.  It will not be spoiler safe.  

As you’ve now been duly warned, let us dive in.  

THE IMPACT

Doubtless all my readers remember the Final Four of “Survivor Cambodia”.  We’re left with two from San Juan del Sur, in Kelley and Jeremy, and two from Cagayan, in Spencer and Tasha.  They end up competing for immunity in “Simmotion”, quickly becoming an all-too common final challenge, and an underwhelming one at that in my opinion (for those not familiar, I don’t think the challenge is bad per se, but it feels too small yet too complex for a final immunity challenge.  Either give me some massive structure or a straight endurance challenge at the end.)  Jeremy ended up winning, thereby getting rid of pretty much all doubt that anyone but Kelley was going home at that point.  Granted, I don’t think most of us saw Spencer shooting himself in the foot quite as badly as he did, but still, pretty low tension.  

What you may NOT know, or at least I didn’t know, is that this was NOT the first time this challenge was run that season.  As Peridiam detailed in his “Top 10 Game-Ending Chokes in Survivor History” video, there was actually a practice round held before the actual challenge we saw.  And THAT challenge ended quite differently, with Kelley creaming the competition.  Only because a second round was needed did Jeremy win.  

So, what if that DOESN’T happen?  What if there’s not practice round, just one run of the challenge?  Well, assuming that’s the first run, the same as in our timeline, then Kelley wins, obviously.  I’d normally cover what’s next in the next section, but with how simple this change is, we can fudge the borders a bit.  With Kelley now immune, I’d say Jeremy becomes the obvious target.  He’d used his “shields” strategy well, but his shields were now gone.  Kelley was aware of how big of a threat he was, so I’d wager Tasha and Spencer were as well.  Couple that with Tasha and Spencer being allied on their original season, and Jeremy’s a goner here.  How does this change the season?  Find out in the next section.  

THE FALLOUT

Kelley wins.  Yeah, there’s not really a good, clever segue or lead-in to that.  It’s the obvious outcome.  Now, it’s fair to say that Kelley does not have the dominating performance that Jeremy does.  If nothing else, Savage is never voting for her to win under basically any circumstances.  But for the other votes?  At a minimum, I’d say she has Kass, Ciera, Abi-Maria, Kimmi, and Keith on lock.  That’s five out a needed six, and I’d say the likes of Joe, Kelly, and Jeremy lean in her favor as well.  Fishbach is a bit more up in the air, but I could see him being persuaded to vote for her in certain circumstances.  Point being, Kelley is easily the frontrunner to win.  The rest of the changes, however, come in the section I call…

THE LEGACY

For once in this off-season, we’ve got something far back enough in the timeline that it actually changes returnee seasons a bit.  Surprisingly, our first change is actually to “Survivor Game Changers” rather than “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, which Kelley was on in our timeline.  But no, I say the cast of Game Changers is itself changed, simply due to the fact of Jeremy not winning.  In our timeline, Jeremy was victorious one, with Kelley the good-but-robbed player.  In the timeline of a Kelley victory, those roles are reversed.  In our timeline, Kelley was asked to come back for Game Changers, but felt it was too soon.  As such, I don’t doubt that Jeremy is asked back here as well, but he always seemed a bit hungrier for the win, so barring some external life circumstance, I don’t see him saying “no”.  Much as I’d like to say he takes Varner’s place, I don’t see that happening.  

The good news is that the Varner/Zeke incident probably doesn’t happen as a result of this change, but it’s because Zeke, not Varner, gets replaced by Jeremy.  Zeke always seemed a bit “on the bubble” in terms of the cast; brought in more for being from a popular season than being super stand-out as a character his first time around.  Not dissing the guy, to be clear.  He seems like an awesome dude IRL, just not the biggest character from his season.  Add on that it’s always dicey bringing back cast members from a season that just wrapped filming, and I’d say Jeremy is more of a slam-dunk for this spot than anyone else.  Jeremy taking Zeke’s place changes that season in ways that would take a whole other blog to consider, so for now, we’ll leave that change here.  

It may not come first, but as Kelley’s win makes her ineligible for “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, someone must take her place.  I think the smart money would be on Chrissy Hoffbeck of “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”.  They don’t quite fill the same demographic age-wise, but they are both women known for being good in challenges and overcoming great odds to make it near the end.  Decent enough parallels, and I’d say Chrissy was/is popular enough to merit a second shot.  Again, her place on the season changes too much to go over here, though I will say in the aggregate, I think she and David do worse than their placements in our timeline.  Part of the reason Kelley and David were “successful” (at least compared to Joe and Aubry) is that they worked against one another, thus diluting their threat level in the eyes of the fans.  Chrissy and David seem more on the same wavelength, and unless someone on Manu had the same hero-worship of Chrissy that Lauren had of Kelley, they do worse.  

This, then, brings us to “Survivor Winners at War”, where I have no doubt Kelley is brought back.  Popular winner from a popular season?  Yeah, she’s a shoe-in, probably taking Michele’s spot given how controversial the latter’s win was.  Shame, since it means we’re deprived of the Michele renaissance we got in our timeline, but these things happen.  No Jeremy on Winners at War also means we need a replacement for him.  As per usual with these blogs, I’m sticking with the safe choice of Mike Holloway from “Survivor Worlds Apart” getting the slot.  The man made it far in casting in our timeline, only getting cut due to spots just not being available.  One becomes available?  Production takes him in a heartbeat.  

I mentioned Kelley being a popular winner from a popular season, and surprise surprise, I meant it.  Cambodia is hardly reviled in our timeline, with only those who strongly favor character over strategy having much negative to say about it.  Kelley’s win doesn’t change the validity of that criticism, but I don’t see her hurting the legacy of the season any more than Jeremy’s win does in our timeline.  If anything, the season is an even bigger deal than in our timeline.  We’ll rightly laud Jeremy for playing a smart game, but in terms of the show, it wasn’t a particularly “flashy” win.  Kelley, in contrast, has the “Wentworth, will not count” as the iconic moment of the season.  Even in our timeline, I’d say it’s remembered as the highlight of the season.  As the crux of a winner’s story?  Yeah, it’s one for the history books.  There’s also just the fact that Kelley perhaps more than anyone else on the season, exemplifies the idea of the “second chance”.  She was tied for earliest boot on the season with Kimmi, and then she comes back and wins?  That’s an arc you can’t write, and it’s amazing to watch when it happens.  

As a final, random change this makes to the timeline, of all people, Drew Christy of “Survivor San Juan del Sur” is oddly given a bit more credit than in our timeline.  Don’t misunderstand, he’s still by and large the butt of the joke with just how much the edit dunks on him and his decisions throughout his boot episode.  “The Fall of Drew Christy” is easily one of the funniest things to come out of modern “Survivor”.  But now, with a Kelley win?  People look back on his out-of-nowhere quest to get rid of her, to the point of throwing a challenge just to eliminate her, and think “Yeah, this guy’s an idiot in his execution, but maybe he was on to something with the general idea.”  Man, that’s a weird timeline to think about.  

Speaking of weird timelines, thanks for following this one!  Always appreciate people taking the time to peruse my weird ramblings.  To help ensure I have more of them, let me know down in the comments what you’d like me to examine next!  The general guidelines for what sorts of submissions will be considered are listed below.  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Cambodia, Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Ghost Island, Island of the Idols, Winners at War.

As always, thank you so much for following my mad ramblings, and I look forward to hearing what you want to read next in the comments!

-Matt

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Ghost Island

Rested and ready, it is time once again to explore alternate timelines.  How one small change might leave a big impact on something.  Me being me, we’re of course going to use this thought experiment to look purely at “Survivor”, because clearly that’s really important!

In all seriousness, it is my honor to have you back here for “Survivor What-Ifs?”, the blog where we make one little change on a given season and see how it makes things play out differently both on that season, and on subsequent seasons.  Our subject for today is “Survivor Ghost Island”, one of the more maligned seasons, both for a fairly predictable outcome, and for starting a lot of the trends people are saying are ruining modern “Survivor”.  I tend to be kinder to this season than most, but I’ll admit that’s partly because I really enjoyed the dominant alliance, and thought the dynamic between the two leaders was interesting enough to keep the season from being terrible.  I also admired the certain amount of restraint production showed with the “Ghost Island” twist.  Granted, the latter is more of a “Could have been worse” situation, but in this day and age, I’ll take what I can get.  Still, even as someone who defends this season more than others, I won’t deny it has some big problems, and while I would consider it “ok” it’s definitely far from being on the greats.  Perhaps, though, one little change may make that different…

Before we discuss said change, however, a couple of quick bits of business: Since it’s been a while since we’ve done one of these blogs, let me give a quick refresher on the format.  The blog will be divided into three sections.  “The Impact” will look at what the exact change is to the timeline, and how it affects the episode it occurs in.  “The Fallout” will look at how that change impacts the rest of the season.  “The Legacy” will look at how this change impacted the show down the road, both in terms of returnee seasons, and how the season would have been looked back on.  

Second, a reminder that there are SPOILERS ahead.  It’s difficult to talk about changing the timeline without talking about how things went down in our time.  Thus, be aware that if you haven’t seen “Survivor Ghost Island” or any subsequent seasons, you read at your own risk.  Duly warned, let us jump in.  

THE IMPACT

While there is some debate about where, exactly, Ghost Island goes “wrong”, as a season, I think most would agree that the death knell for anything interesting happened when Chris became the merge boot.  He was really the only major force speaking out against the pairing of Dom and Wendell, and once he was gone, their march to the end was all but assured.  All the more frustratingly, he HAD an idol to save himself.  One that was only good for one extra Tribal Council!  Almost no reason not to play it, since he knew he was likely getting votes, had no vote of his own, and SAW Dom play a legacy advantage!  Yet he didn’t.  And thus, the season suffers.  

So what if he does?  What if circumstances get Chris to play his idol?  By my own self-imposed rules, I can’t have him have a brain-wave about this, of course.  However, luck-based circumstances COULD make Chris play his idol.  Recall that, when he got said idol, it was only good for one Tribal Council.  However, Chris could play 50/50 guessing games, at the risk of losing his vote, to give it more Tribal Councils it could be played at.  Such a luck-based thing definitely falls under the purview of “Survivor What-Ifs?”, and could definitely change how Chris uses his idol.  

In our timeline, Chris got his first guess right, before getting the second one wrong.  This gave Chris a reason not to play his idol at the Tribal Council he goes home at.  But what if he got the first one wrong?  Now Chris’ idol is only good at this Tribal Council, and even if he did make a fairly large mistake in not playing his idol in our timeline, I do not think Chris is stupid enough to not play an idol at the only Tribal Council it’s good for.  As a cascade effect of this choice, Chris is now immune at the merge, along with Dom.  

So what happens then?  Thankfully, we had a split vote in our timeline, which would likely be no different in this timeline, so we can be assured that backup boot Libby goes, becoming the first member of the jury.  Thus, the merge will be further impacted in the next section.  

As an aside, this also means we likely don’t get Chris’ Ponderosa rap, at least not right away.  A fact that I personally rejoice in, but I know makes a lot of the fanbase cry.  

THE FALLOUT

If you were to force me to say honestly what I thought would happen with this timeline change, most likely what happens is that Chris goes one one episode later, and the season proceeds pretty much as we know it, just with Chris and Libby swapping boot order.  Chris just did not have the social capital to do much.  Heck, part of the reason he went at the merge in our timeline was because he was an easy consensus boot.  That said, just ending blog with “And everything else was the same, the end.” would be boring.  So, is there a cascade effect from here that could lead things to go differently?

In fact, I would say there are two.  The simple one is that Chris wins immunity.  Dude was good in challenges; there’s always the chance he could have pulled out a win.  Then, in the interest of ending the civil war amongst the original Naviti, Domenick might go just to end the argument.  

Slightly more complicated is how Chris might be able to leverage that last Tribal Council.  While Chris didn’t have MUCH social capital to work with, it’s not NONE.  Him getting votes might have been the wake-up call he needed to be more diplomatic.  With him then out of the danger zone of “Easy consensus boot goes” he found himself in at the merge, I could see Chris making basically the argument I just made to the rest of Naviti.  “We need to be united, but Domenick’s witch hunt against me only divides us.”  With a bit more time to think, it’s possible Naviti might choose to rally around Chris rather than Domenick.  If so, then Domenick goes at the second post-merge Tribal Council, and we’ve got ourselves a timeline worth talking about!

Regardless of whichever way it happens, a bit part of Chris’ being saved is due to him playing up the “Naviti Strong” trends we saw in our timeline.  Therefore, it would only make sense in the altered timeline if Ghost Island ended up being a pretty straight Pagonging.  Michael, Jenna, Lauren, and Donathan all go out one after another, barring any shenanigans with the split Tribal Council at the final 10, and it’d be tough for them to get the numbers mathematically at that point anyway.  Thus, the Naviti alliance is somehow even MORE dominant in this timeline than in our own.  

While “Naviti Strong” does keep Chris in the game longer, it does create a problem for Chris.  We’ll call it “The Problem of Wendell”.  The issue is that, while Wendell is not as disliked by Chris as Domenick was (Wendell’s opinions on Chris’ rap skills notwithstanding), Wendell’s not exactly happy that Chris knocked out his number one ally.  Wendell, however, probably has the smarts to go the Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) route, and simply fold himself back into the majority, and wait for the time to strike.  Further, Wendell is a threat to Chris just simply running away with immunity all the way to the end, and at some point, Chris would be vulnerable.  Given his relative lack of social capital amongst the Naviti, I’d say it’s fair to assume that Chris goes out at some point.  He makes it farther, and is more of a strategic force, but saving himself with an idol does not win him the season.  

With no competition, then, does Wendell still win the game, just not in quite the same way?  Again, no.  Wendell was great in challenges, but even in our timeline, he wasn’t unbeatable.  He’s more well-liked then Chris, but with no more Malolo to vote out, and no larger physical threats left (save Sebastian, and let’s be honest, Sebastian did not have the puzzle skills to be considered enough of a “challenge threat” to shield Wendell), Wendell becomes a target.  So, who does become the driving force post-merge, then?  Why, the alliance of Kellyn, Desiree, and Chelsea, of course!  Yes, an alliance that existed within our own timeline, only stopped due to Domenick and Wendell outmaneuvering them while they were still stuck on “Naviti Strong”.  Without that pair, and with “Naviti Strong” being even more of the driving force of the post-merge, there’s no reason those three don’t waltz into the final three basically uncontested.  

Of them, I’d be willing to bet that Chelsea wins.  Despite being purpled on our television screens, all post-season interviews indicate that Chelsea was both well-liked by the cast, and a strategic driving force behind the scenes.  Kellyn might have been the face of Naviti, but that doesn’t mean she was as well-liked, and we’ve seen how the “mother” character often doesn’t get the credit they deserve at the end.  

A Chelsea win means there’s a retroactive change to the season, specifically in how it’s edited.  The product we see is COMPLETELY different from the one we get, because production doesn’t try to hide Chelsea’s game.  Far from it, they’d actually try and promote her as this black-widow-esque mastermind in the same vein as Parvati.  It probably wouldn’t work that well.  No disrespect to Chelsea, but unless she had some quality stuff they left on the cutting-room floor (along with her strategic talk), she doesn’t pop off the screen.  Probably remembered as a solid winner strategically, but not one of the most entertaining one’s we’ve ever seen.  Sort of the female equivalent of Tommy in our own timeline.  

THE LEGACY

This season leaves us little to talk about in the way of returnees, mostly because there was only one returnee season that aired after this one, and that was Winners at War.  This may come as a shock, but I don’t think Chelsea was getting the invite.  Again nothing against her, but I don’t see her being an entertaining-enough winner to get the call back.  MAYBE, if she had some really good moments we just didn’t see in our timeline, she could take Michele’s spot, but “Survivor Kaoh Rong” is still probably seen as the better season in our timeline, so all else being equal, I’d give Michele the edge here.  

Of course, this leaves Wendell’s spot on that season open for another guy to come in.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Mike Holloway of “Survivor Worlds Apart” ends up filling in that spot.  We know he was considered in our timeline, and likely only dropped because all the slots for men filled up with people production preferred.  With no Wendell in the mix, that’s probably just the opening Mike needs to get in.  That probably changes the course of how that season goes drastically, at least after the swap, but that would also merit a blog all its own, so I’m not going to go into detail here.  

In terms of discourse AROUND the season, however, there’s a couple of big changes.  First and foremost, the discussion around bias against older women becomes even more of a “thing” that it was in our timeline.  People were salty enough at Chrissy’s loss on “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”, but now we’ve got two older women, who were good strategic leaders, losing back to back.  Admittedly to different archetypes (I don’t think anyone would say that Ben and Chelsea are at all similar), but still, the conversation around that bias becomes more heated, and there’s a lot more of a drive to give the “older” women a chance.  Probably increases the chances of the likes of Janet on later seasons, since players are not immune to public feedback, particularly those players who follow the online community closely.  

The other effects of the season changing are slightly less notable, but worth at least a mention.  Tie votes at Final Tribal Council, while still a specter over the audience, are not a thing we experience to this day with the change.  Chelsea winning, of course, also slightly decreases the diversity of the winner pool, since we’ve eliminated a black winner in Wendell to put her in instead.  Given that the petition for more diversity in casting didn’t come about until post-COVID, I don’t think this does anything radical like move the timeline for when that happens up, but it is more fuel to the fire.  And finally, this change probably elevates some characters (particular Chelsea and Desiree) to more prominence than they had in our timeline, while Domenick loses some favor conversely, and except for some proposed “Second Chance” ballots, you probably don’t hear about him much in the community.  On the plus side, Wendell stays big enough of a character that his and Brice’s podcasts and parties still happen.  

The big question, as always, is “Does this change make the season better or worse?”  Honestly, in this case, the change probably doesn’t impact how the season is seen overall that much, but if it does, the season comes out looking slightly worse.  The problem is that the real thing that killed this season was the “Naviti Strong” sentiment that no one could overcome, leading to a predictable outcome.  Since that sentiment is only stronger in this timeline, that doesn’t change.  Admittedly this season is less frustrating, since there’s less of a chance for anyone to talk about overthrowing Naviti.  On the other hand, it’s also more boring, since there’s not even a HINT of going against the Pagonging in this timeline.  In addition, as mentioned, we lose out on the tie vote, one of the few things that helps this season stand out from the others.  Given the “girl power” theme of the final three, there’s probably a hard core of fans who love the season for the strategy, but they’re very much a minority.  

Maybe not the most exciting change to talk about first, but I do find it intriguing how different paths can lead to the same feeling.  Then again, perhaps I’m full of it, and got this completely wrong.  Let me know in the comments what you think would happen in a timeline such as this!  In addition, I’m always looking for more timeline changes to blog about, so feel free to submit those there as well.  Rest assured, you will be credited if your request is chosen!  Some general guidelines for submissions to be considered are as follows: 

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Game Changers, Ghost Island, Island of the Idols.

It’s good to be back writing for y’all!  Look forward to more to come!

-Matt

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Cast Assessment

Dear readers, I would like to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  That said, I cannot do so in this case, due to the fact that the world is ending.  

Yes, hell hath frozen over, pigs are flying, the whole works.  We have hit the apocalypse, my friends.  How do I know this?  We had a cast release on a Tuesday.  You know, the day “Survivor” does not air on.  We have broken one of the immutable laws of the universe.  Matter can neither be created nor destroyed.  Force equals mass times acceleration.  “Survivor” casts drop on the same day of the week that episodes premier on.  And since I haven’t heard about the show switching to “Tuesdays”, this can only mean the world is coming to an end.  

Still, I suppose we might as well enjoy ourselves while we await our inevitable demise.  Let’s take a look at my thoughts on this new cast, starting with…

Claire Rafson (25, Tech Investor, Brooklyn, NY, Soka Tribe): Starting strong out of the gate, Claire is one of my two picks to win the whole thing.  Yes, seriously.  The woman is just too solid a competitor.  She compares herself to two solid winners in Michele Fitzgerald and Natalie Anderson (“Survivor Kaoh Rong” and “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, respectively), and makes a good note of what qualities she needs to utilize from both.  Specifically Michele’s social game and Natalie’s willingness to cut ties when necessary.  A blend a likability and cutthroatness can be lethal, game-wise, and all in a very unassuming package.  Admittedly Claire doesn’t seem like she’ll be the BEST in the outdoors or in challenges, but she doesn’t seem like she’ll be a sink in either area either, and given that her tribe seems like it’s the most well-rounded in challenges overall, I suspect she’s in it for the long haul.  If you REALLY want me to find weaknesses in her game, I would probably say her age and her pet peeves.  Claire is on the younger side for a winner, but as Maryanne taught us in “Survivor 42”, it’s by no means a deal-breaker, and I think this self-described “queer black Jewish woman” has those skills, helped by the fact that she’s clearly a longtime fan (something that, as I’ll discuss later, does not seem to be as universal amongst this cast as it has been in recent seasons).  Slightly more concerning is her pet peeve, which is people who are not self-aware, something that can describe many a previous contestant, and will doubtless apply to some this season.  Given her savvy, plus her tribe’s possible lack of early votes, I think Claire can ride this out for the long haul, and emerge as our eventually winner.  I know, I usually pick two winners, and still intend to do so this season.  But put a gun to my head, and force me to pick just one, I’m going with Claire.  Plus, the woman listens to young-adult novels on tape to go to sleep (specifically “The Hunger Games” in her case), and can I just say, I feel seen?

Matt Blankinship (27, Software Engineer, San Francisco, CA, Soka Tribe): This guy stole my first name, he stole my hairdo.  Man’s just a thief overall!  I kid, I kid.  Either way, though, I suspect this guy will be rewarded like a thief, and receive a harsh sentence.  That sentence, in this case, being an early exit.  Matt had better hope that his tribe truly IS the dominant one of the season, because I see him going at their first Tribal Council.  Given the makeup of the tribes, I doubt he’s the overall first boot, but when the opportunity arises, he’s toast.  There’s several of the “nerd” archetype this season, and while not the most egregious example of this, Matt is the most clearly visible.  Everyone nowadays knows this archetype is a threat, and coupled with a usual lack of skills in non-puzzle-based challenges (which, admittedly, are becoming as rare as hen’s teeth these days), they are an easy early target.  It takes a great deal of skill to overcome this obstacle, and while Matt is far from the worst person I’ve ever seen in terms of game sense, he’s no genius in that territory either.  The thing that clinches Matt’s poor chances for me is him talking about his failures in life.  It is refreshing to someone so open about their past mistakes, admittedly.  He chickened out for applying for the show the first time.  He failed to get a job.  He failed college.  It’s good, uplifting stuff that he kept on fighting in spite of this, but does not bode well for a winning game.  Matt is a pre-merge boot, but hey, maybe he can learn from this failure, and find success on a returnee season?  Stranger things have happened.  

Carolyn Wiger (35, Drug Counselor, Hugo, MN, Tika Tribe): Remember how I said people in psychology and psychology-related fields, unless they are Denise Stapely of “Survivor Philippines”, don’t do well on the show?  Yeah, don’t be looking for Carolyn to buck that trend.  Seems we’re getting all my extreme takes out of the way early, since Carolyn is my pick for first boot of the season.  While by no means “old”, she definitely fits the mold the show has for an “older woman”, one of the more vulnerable archetypes to be perceived as at the beginning of the season.  Carolyn also lists a lot of worldly things that she likes, makeup and potato chips and whatnot, that make me question how well she will do in the outdoors, only making her more vulnerable.  On top of that, when asked to compare herself to a previous player, Carolyn says she’s most like Noura of “Survivor Island of the Idols”.  About the best thing that this comparison says about Carolyn is that she has good self-knowledge.  Yeah, Noura ain’t exactly the comparison you want to make if you’re looking for success in this game.  Yes, Noura made it deep, but that was in part due to a large win streak from her tribe, giving other people time to rub the tribe the wrong way.  While I maintain that there will be no “disaster tribe” for this season, if there IS one on some off-chance, it will likely be Tika, putting Carolyn in an early vulnerable spot.  IF she somehow makes the merge, expect her to go deep as a goat, but unfortunately for her, I expect her to have a very short shelf-life this season.  Good on her for doing the real-life work she does, though.  Very necessary, but very difficult.  

Yamil “Yam Yam” Arocho (36, Salon Owner, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tika Tribe): One of two contestants currently living in a US territory at the time of casting this season, Yam Yam bookends the unintended theme this blog of “Get the extreme takes out early”.  Yes, Yam Yam is my second winner pick for this season.  You may remember Yam Yam from the preview we got at the end of “Survivor 43”.  He was the guy excited to poop in the ocean.  This may have you thinking “Well, the guy will be a fun character for sure, but winner equity?  Not seeing it.”  But as Maryanne proved on “Survivor 42”, being a good character and being a good strategist are not necessarily mutually exclusive.  In fact, Yam Yam’s personality could work to his advantage, as his strategizing won’t make him as visible a threat, thanks to his “wacky” exterior.  The man has admitted to surviving 90 days without electricity following a hurricane, so I’m going to say he’s got survival bona fides.  Yes, his challenge prowess might not be the best, but unless his tribe goes the route of Vesi last season, and cuts off their worst at challenges when they just can’t take it any more, Yam Yam is here for the long haul.  People will want to keep him around for his humor, and I’m confident he could use his charm to his advantage.  Man compares himself to Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”) for a reason, and he’s the only person I’ve yet seen to have NO pet peeves listed in his bio whatsoever (though that could just be a quirk of “Entertainment Weekly”, where I usually go to read them).  Honestly, the only concern I have with Yam Yam is that he DOES remind me so much of Maryanne.  She may have proved big characters can still be good at strategy, but her doing so means people will be on the watch for such a game.  Given that “Survivor 42” was the last season this cast saw, it will be VERY fresh in their minds, and that could put Yam Yam in trouble.  Otherwise, expect him to be around in the end.  Besides, he’s endorsed by Sandra Diaz-Twine (“Survivor Pearl Islands”), and who am I to disagree with The Queen?

Lauren Harpe (31, Elementary School Teacher, Mont Belvieu, TX, Ratu Tribe): After several novella’s worth of character bits to talk about, we finally have someone who we can go over without some big rant involved.  Lauren should do fairly well in this game, but aside from her hair, which is awesome, I don’t expect her to make any big waves in this game.  I think she should have some good skills interpersonally.  After all, managing a bunch of elementary school kids is one of the undersold toughest jobs in this day and age.  And mad respect to her for raising kids as a single mom, another undersold tough job.  Her pet peeve is a bit concerning, in people who don’t own up to their mistakes, but I’ve seen people with way worse peeves do well, so I won’t hold that much against her.  I don’t see Lauren being the major mover and shaker in an alliance, but she seems skilled enough to work her way into the core of a major alliance, and probably hang on until the early-to-mid merge or so, where she’ll be taken out as a safe boot.  Possibly she’s even one of the “split tribal” boots at the final 10, assuming they bring that back again.  Not knocking my socks off, but a solid player I predict will do decently well.  

Danny Massa (32, NYC Firefighter, Bronx, NY, Soka Tribe): While perhaps not quite to the same degree, Danny is very much the Jonathan Young (“Survivor 42”) of this cast.  Not so much in the sense that he will win challenges single-handedly, but in the sense that physically, he’s head and shoulders above the rest of the cast.  That said, I don’t see much strategic chops from him beyond surface-level stuff, and his pet peeves are the most concerning so far.  Bullies and whining are both decently common on this show, and I could see them getting under Danny’s skin.  On the flip side, however, this makes Danny a very good alliance member.  Skilled in team challenges, loyal, but not bright enough to strategize against you in any threatening way.  As with most challenge beasts, Danny will be a target as soon as the merge hits, and unless he gets an alliance as tight as Jonathan’s, will probably be out in the early-to-mid merge area.  

Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt (43, Engineering Manager, Pittsburgh, PA, Soka Tribe): For her own sake, Heidi had better hope her tribe IS a major force in the challenges, because if things shake out relatively even in terms of who goes to Tribal Council, she is an easy early target.  I love her enthusiasm, and we stan a board-game lover on this blog, but the fact simply is that Heidi is the oldest person on her tribe, and that person is almost always vulnerable early on.  Add onto that someone who self-describes as “loud”, a personality trait that gets very irritating very quickly when you can’t get away from it, and an enthusiasm for the game that, while admirable, frequently leads to playing too hard, too fast, and you’ve got yourself a recipe for a pre-merge boot.  Her pet peeve, “rude people”, doesn’t help matters any further.  Again, unless her tribe just completely bodies the immunity challenges, I don’t see Heidi having much of a shot moving forward.  About the only other thing worth mentioning is that she is one of a few people this season to mention Angelina Keeley (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) in their “who are you most like?” question, something that doesn’t really impact my thoughts on how they’ll do, but DOES point to an interesting trend that I’ll discuss more when we come to the final thoughts on the cast/season preview overall.  

Carson Garrett (20, NASA Engineering Student, Atlanta, GA, Tika Tribe): It’s revenge of the nerds!  Carson is the second (of three) overt “nerd” archetypes this season, and like with Matt before him, I think it helps spell his doom.  Man’s certainly got the studying down, though.  3-D printing puzzles to practice them beforehand.  Studying up on the statistics of the game.  Correctly identifying himself with Christian Hubicki (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  The man is doing his best to set himself up for success, and I do like the guy.  Man loves board games in general, and Settlers of Catan in particular.  Can’t fault him for that.  But the man has too many little things working against him.  I mentioned the “nerd” archetype being a threat, but the fact is that he’s just too young for me to consider him doing well.  I know I said Maryanne proved that age is less of a factor than we might have previously thought, but there is a limit to how low one can go, and I’m just not sure this guy has enough life experience to connect with people, and consequently do well in this game.  Finally, there’s his tribe.  I doubt Carson will be the FIRST target from his tribe, he needs to not go to Tribal Council too-often pre-merge, yet finds himself on probably the worst tribe for challenges.  Rough luck, my dude.  Another pre-merge boot in my opinion.  As an aside, the man DOES have probably the longest list of pet peeves, but most of them, apart from mosquitoes, are things he’s unlikely to encounter on the island, though I suppose production could put him on a tribe with negative vibes/moon-landing-deniers just to mess with him.  

Maddy Pomilla (28, Charity Projects Manager, Brooklyn, NY, Ratu Tribe): Not content to have Elie Scott (“Survivor 43”) on just once, production let her change her name, occupation, and location, then brought her back immediately.  Apart from physical resemblance, Maddy and Elie exude the same energy.  Decently game-savvy, but still overestimating themselves, and energetic to the point of annoyance.  Maddy will be a strategist, but an overly-visible one, and therefore an easy target.  Given the large merge sizes of recent seasons, expect Maddy to be our merge boot, or perhaps our “Mergeatory” boot, if that’s really what we’re calling it now.  Too visible not to take out at an opportunity when an easy consensus boot is needed.  She will burn brightly, but burn (relatively) fast.  

Bruce Perreault (46, Insurance Agent, Warwick, RI, Tika Tribe): Our oldest contestant (though admittedly only by a few years) on this season, I would not blame you for not expecting Bruce to be that old at first glance.  True, the man does not look like a spring chicken, but you could easily shave 10 years off his age, and I’d believe it.  This implies he’s relatively fit, ergo not a challenge sink, ergo less likely to be targeted for that reason.  That said, there ARE reasons to be concerned about his game, at least in my opinion.  While the man is in insurance, thereby effectively a salesman and presumably social, the man gives the shortest answers by far in his bio.  A welcome break in reading, to be sure, but does not imply, to me at least, good sociability.  Think of him like Rocksroy (“Survivor 42”): Not unlikeable, but very set in his ways and not going to sugarcoat stuff.  He’s one of two players who very much give off “dad vibes” this season.  Useful on a tribe that’s likely to be fairly chaotic early, but could also isolate him.  I think Bruce needs to hope for a very even split of Tribal Council attendance in the pre-merge, since there are people I’ve discussed on his tribe who would likely be targets before him.  If they ARE closer to the disaster tribe, his perceived lack of sociability will likely catch up to him, and Bruce will be out likely in the pre-merge, though probably the late pre-merge, if I had to guess.  

Sarah Wade (27, Management Consultant, Chicago, IL, Tika Tribe): If someone can ride out the chaos that is this tribe, my money’s on Sarah.  Apart from her career implying she knows how to handle disparate personalities, the woman is a long-time fan, and so knows the game quite well, while appearing unassuming, another deadly combination in this game.  Not enough stands out about her for me to really go so far as to say she’ll win, but she was definitely one I considered for the title, and will probably make it far regardless.  Mid-to-late merge I’d say.  Her pet peeves are relatively unassuming (loud chewing, rule followers, close minded/inflexible people), though she could run into some in the game, another slight mark against her.  Also, she references multiple times how the passing of a close friend inspires her in life.  A tragedy for her, and my heart goes out to her for her loss, but expect her to be the one we get MULTIPLE flashbacks to.  No way the show isn’t milking that for all it’s worth.  

Matthew Grinstead-Mayle (43, Barbershop Owner, Columbus, OH, Ratu Tribe):  Hoo boy.  Let’s tally the list, shall we?  This guy shares my first name.  He lives in the same metropolitan area as me.  We bear some superficial similarities, being large, hirsute, barrel-chested guys with bushy beards.  This guy is my favorite of the season in part because I’m basically OBLIGATED to root for him at this point.  So, do I think he’ll win?  Eh… I think he’ll make the merge, at least.  The dude gives off SERIOUS dad vibes, even more so than Bruce whom we just discussed.  Not a bad thing, but it makes me question how good he’ll be at the game once things really get cutthroat.  On top of that, dude has a LOT of pet peeves.  Admittedly, most of these are food-related, and unlikely to come up, but the two that AREN’T, specifically people who talk in circles and people who dominate the conversation (or presumably both), are something he’ll have to watch out for.  While I appreciate him comparing himself to Elaine Stott (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), an underappreciated player, his further comparisons to Shan Smith (“Survivor 41”) and especially Ben Driebergen (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) are concerning.  Admittedly his take on the former is that she was the social center, but should he bring in her cockiness, he might be in trouble.  As for Ben?  Well, a nice enough guy, but good strategist he ain’t.  I don’t see Matthew going SUPER early, but expect him out no later than the mid-merge, when the game just gets too cutthroat for him to keep up.  Of course, this is assuming he’s not one of the medevacs we saw in the season preview, since it seems like it was likely him falling off the rock in the preview.  He has the closest build, and does have the right buff color, assuming no swap.  Then again, these previews also made us think Tori Meehan was getting an idol on “Survivor 42”, so I’m not going to go so far as to say he IS for certain a medevac.  

Helen Li (29, Product Manager, San Francisco, CA, Tika Tribe): Rounding out this tribe is the OTHER person I have confidence can ride this thing out, regardless of if the tribe ends up being a disaster.  Helen’s another bona fide fan, making good references from recent seasons (comparing herself to Erika Casupanan of “Survivor 41”), all the way back to season 2 with Tina Wesson.  Preparing for the future while learning from the past.  I like this woman.  Her unassuming pet peeves help as well, as a lack of toilet paper and cars on the island mean two out of her three are non-factors.  Disrespectful people might be an issue, and that plus a potential lack of challenge prowess keep Helen from the winner’s spot for me.  Still, all else being equal, she should have the good game sense to weather early storms, and make the mid-to-late merge period.  I’d even have her as a dark horse to win, if it comes to that.  

Josh Wilder (34, Surgical Podiatrist, Atlanta, GA, Soka Tribe): Josh seems nice.  Yeah.  That’s really all that needs to be said.  Dude is decently athletic, seems likable enough.  Should do well.  I don’t think he really has the killer instinct needed to be truly great, but unless he makes some major social gaffe none of us see coming, he should be safe.  No reason to vote him out early, and not enough of a strategic threat to be an immediate target come the merge.  Man is one of the better challenge competitors on paper this season, so expect his threat to rise in the mid-to-late merge, and see him go there.  Be aware, as well, that he’s another contestant who regrettably had tragic medical hardships at a (relatively, in some cases) young age.  Something called “Prune Belly Syndrome” at birth, necessitating a kidney transplant, and stomach cancer at age 25, necessitating the removal (and presumably transplant) of his stomach.  Dude’s been through a lot, and expect to hear it in multiple flashbacks.  In truth, I expect Josh’s biggest risk early game to be the fact that, due to the aforementioned transplants, he’s on immunosuppressants, and so I could see him getting some tropical disease that makes him one of the medevacs of the season, though I would hope that production, if they thought he was at that much greater a risk than others, would not have let him play the season in the first place.  

Jaime Lynn Ruiz (35, Yogi, Mesa, AZ, Ratu Tribe): Jaime wins the award for “Most Unusual Occupation” this season!  Good thing, too, as she’s not winning many other awards.  Similar to Carolyn, whom we discussed earlier, Jamie is not “old” by an objective measure, but fits the “older woman” archetype as far as this show is concerned, and that’s a problem.  She claims to be a day one fan, and perhaps she is, but comparisons only to recent seasons make me question that.  She’s another Angelina stan, and again, we’ll get into the significance of that later on.  She also has a lot of enthusiasm, as evidenced by a large number of all-caps words in her bio.  As a viewer, I appreciate it, but on the island, could be grating.  I will say she avoid any even mildly concerning pet peeves, but she’s likely the worst challenge performer on her tribe, so unless she has above and beyond social skills, I don’t see her lasting very long, unfortunately.  Chalk her up as another pre-merge boot.  

Kane Fritzler (25, Law Student, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, Ratu Tribe): Rounding out our nerd trio is Kane, and he is an exception to my thoughts on these types this season.  That is to say, Kane will be voted out for reasons OTHER than his nerddom.  Don’t misunderstand, Kane has a few read flags.  Likely not the best in non-puzzle challenges.  Describes himself as “loud” which I’ve already expressed as a concern for others.  Admittedly not any concerning pet peeves, but this is little comfort.  No, sadly for Kane, he is doomed before he starts by his nationality.  What’s wrong with being Canadian, you might ask?  Erika and Maryanne, that’s what.  The last two times there has been an opportunity to do so, a Canadian has won this show.  This, in the minds of this case, who JUST saw “Survivor 42” end before coming out, makes Canadians a threat.  Possibly Kane can try and pass himself off as an American, but that’s a big lie to keep up, and if there’s somehow another spelling challenge, he’ll give himself away.  Unfortunately, by virtue of his place of birth, Kane is a goner.  Another pre-merge boot.  And to those who say “So two Canadians won back to back, no big deal!”, I would remind you that it took only ONE successful women’s alliance (after at least three failed attempts at one, if you’re being really picky about what constitutes an “attempt” at a “women’s alliance”) for contestants to have a fear of women’s alliances that arguably persists TO THIS DAY.  I give it at least 3-5 years before the paranoia dies down to the point where a Canadian can win again.  

Frannie Marin (23, Research Coordinator, Cambringe, MA, Soka Tribe): If I were to describe Frannie in one word, it would be “quirky”.  Not too surprising, considering she compares herself to this blog’s beloved Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  She also says that Sophie Clarke (“Survivor South Pacific”) and the Scarlet Witch are her heroes, which we can get behind.  Likability does not always translate into success, though, and these traits that we the audience love could end up being a detriment to Frannie’s game, if they are in excess.  Thankfully, Frannie also seems to be able to tone it down when needed, as evidenced by her not-too-wordy bio.  She’s also another with no listed pet peeves, though again, that could just be a hiccup of how I’m reading these bios.  Couple this with her likely being on the strongest overall tribe for challenges, and I see Frannie making it to the early-to-mid merge.  She’s not subtle enough to win, but should make it decently far, and will certainly be fun along the way.  

Brandon Cottom (30, Security Specialist, Newtown, PA, Ratu Tribe): We end our cast assessment with the most “celebrity” of these contestants.  His occupation may be “Security Specialist”, but Brandon is more well known as a linebacker for the Seattle Seahawks.  Brandon pretty well fits the archetype we’ve come to expect for sports players on “Survivor”.  Decent, if not great, at challenges.  Generally charming, but not as much game sense.  A good team player who likely can’t win, but unless their fame is well-known, should make the mid-merge area or so.  Brandon is pretty bog-standard in this category, so I don’t see that much more needs to be said about him than that.  They wanted another by-the-book sports player on this show, and that’s what they got.  

And thus, we round out the cast assessment, and I am hyped.  While I struggled to find things to say about a LOT of the cast of “Survivor 43”, here I struggled to find people I DIDN’T have a lot of things to say about, for good and for ill.  That bodes well for at least an entertaining season.  But let’s talk about some miscellaneous topics, shall we?

No more delaying, time to address the Angelina in the room.  While it wasn’t as common as I thought on first read, it DID seem like people were mentioning Angelina more than they had in previous seasons.  What’s more, most of them were looking at her in a new light, saying she got a raw deal in the edit.  Is this some sort of Angelina Renaissance?  No, I think it’s an indication that, if these people are fans, they’re very RECENT fans.  Recall that “Survivor David vs. Goliath” was recently on Netflix, getting wider exposure than a lot of the other seasons of the show have had in some time.  It probably got a lot of new people interested in the show, thus explaining why Angelina seems to pop up, at least to me, more than she normally would.  This makes me doubt who deep their fandom is, but at the same time, this might be a good compromise.  I’m on the side of liking superfans on the show, but I can see the other side, who want people clueless about the game to prevent gameplay that feels overused.  As such, getting recent fans who know the game to a degree, but not encyclopedically, might be a good middle ground we can all enjoy.  

On a more negative note, I HATE these tribe names.  Apart from running afoul of my dislike of short tribe names, this season, perhaps more than any other, REALLY shows why staying in Fiji long-term is an issue.  Eventually, you run into similar sounding names, making it harder to distinguish tribes between seasons.  Here, I’ll do the rundown of similar names for the tribes right now: Ratu=Ravu, Soka=Soko, Tika=Tiva.  And that was just of the top of my head!  I’m sure I’d find more similarities if I actually did RESEARCH on this.  Not to mention, I’m surprised that the show was even ALLOWED to use “Ratu” for a tribe name.  I may not know much about Fijian culture, but one thing I DO know is the definition of “Ratu”, that being “chief”.  The OTHER thing I know is that Fijians are VERY picky about how the term gets used.  Jokes or irreverence for the term are a big no-no, and so I’m amazed, assuming they even had permission, that the show got to use it.  Even if so, though, it does not excuse the similar names.  Show, either come up with better names, or better yet, SHOOT IN LOCATIONS OTHER THAN FIJI!

Finally, while I did not consider medevacs in my placement predictions, and don’t think it’s fair to ask me to predict effectively an act of God with little outside evidence, here are who I think are the most likely medevac possibilities: Matthew due to the preview showing probably him falling off the rock, Lauren since we can assume Ratu loses someone besides Matthew from the preview and I think we would have remembered her hair, Carolyn due to her age/general lack of physical survival skills, and I’ll throw in Josh as a wild-card due to the immunosuppressants concern I voiced earlier.  

So there you have it, my thoughts on the cast!  Let me know what you all think, and assuming we’re still alive and the show is still airing in this apocalyptic hellscape, I look forward to blogging the premiere of “Survivor 44” for you all!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Kaoh Rong

Once again, if CBS will not fill the void in our fandom when this goes up by officially announcing the cast of the new season, then it falls to me to fill the void with needless speculation about “What Might Have Been”.  And oh, what a treat we have today.  “Survivor Kaoh Rong” is a personal favorite season of mine, largely due to giving us Aubry Bracco, my all-time favorite player at the time of this writing.  I acknowledge that the season has some flaws, mainly in the editing department, and this keeps if out of the “Great” category of seasons, but I still love it.  Definite room for improvement, though, so let’s see if one tiny change is enough.  

Before discussing said change, though, the usual reminder that there are SPOILERS ahead.  It’s difficult to talk about changing a season without comparing it to how the season actually went down in reality, so I can’t guarantee that this and future seasons won’t be spoiled in this blog.  Past seasons may also be mentioned as well.  Hence, read at your own risk.  

THE IMPACT

Like with Africa, which we talked about earlier this off-season, Kaoh Rong is something of a Holy Grail for “What-If?” scenarios.  Between the medical evacuations and the number of lucky coincidences that happen, there’s just a trove to go through.  Most of these center around Aubry in particular, since while you may say what you want about her in hindsight, she is presented as the main character of this season, so of course most story beats will seem to center around her.  In particular, it’s common for the Michele fans/Aubry detractors to point out that she was saved by luck (had Neal not been medevaced, she almost certainly goes at the merge), while the Aubry fans/Michele detractors will counter that Aubry was also screwed by luck (if Joe doesn’t eat a ton of meat at the final five, Michele almost certainly goes then, leading to an inevitable Aubry victory).  The point I’m making here is twofold: Luck is a factor in “Survivor”, for good or for ill, and these scenarios have been gone over to death by the fanbase, are both equally true, and thus not interesting enough to talk about in this blog on their own.  

Now that I’ve hopefully dodged THAT bullet, and also hopefully avoided reigniting a dead debate that was very cruel and unnecessary, we can talk about the actual change we’re going to make.  Rather than change the outcome of luck, we’re going to change someone else’s mind.  That someone is, of course, Aubry, and that time is going to be at the Final 6.  In our timeline, Tai pushed for ejecting Michele here, something Aubry could have gone along with.  She had Joe’s vote on lock, and Jason, the intended target of Michele and Cydney, would doubtless have gone along with the plan if only to save his own skin.  In our timeline, of course, Aubry sides with Michele and Cydney, citing Cydney as someone she’s tight with, and Jason goes home here.  

That said, what if Aubry decided to take more of an interest in Tai’s plan?  What if Aubry became concerned about the tight twosome that Michele and Cydney form?  We know from post-show interviews that the two were tight from the swapped Chan Loh (and thank you, by the way, show, for COMPLETELY leaving out that particular storyline, only adding to the confusion your ending brought).  It’s not impossible that Aubry becomes concerned about this, and decides to go along with Tai’s plan.  The immediate outcome, of course, is that Michele goes while Jason stays, but what about how the rest of the season (all two remaining episodes of it at least) plays out?  

THE FALLOUT

Aubry choosing to keep Jason is, of course, a controversial move.  I suspect Aubry justifies it to the cameras by emphasizing the Cydney/Michele bond, and also stating that Jason is not good at puzzles, or looks that good to the jury.  Even so, I’m sure this is seen by the fanbase as a possible game-ruining move at the time, and Jason probably brags to confessional about how he just saved himself, even though it was really Tai and Aubry’s doing.  Apart from this, though, our penultimate episode doesn’t change much.  Joe probably still wins reward, and while he may take Tai rather than Cydney with him (and even that’s not guaranteed), this does not change him eating too much meat on reward, and getting evacuated as a result.  Really, all that we can guarantee changes is that Aubry looks an even bigger fool going into the finale, noting in confessional that not voting out Jason may have been her biggest mistake, now that he’s guaranteed a spot in the final four.  

Now, there is one possible change that could shape how things go, which is the aforementioned who Joe chooses to take on reward.  Nothing really changes if he takes Cydney, and she and Aubry patch things up on reward.  If Joe is still in the mindset of “No trust with Cydney” from the last vote, though, I could see him taking Tai.  If so, this raises the possibility that Cydney, burned from the last vote, makes amends with Jason.  In the Aubry/Michele debate in our timeline, Cydney often gets left by the wayside, despite being an excellent strategist and key player in the dominant alliance.  True, she wasn’t beating either of our two heroines, given how many bridges she burned, but still, she deserves respect.  I could see her trying to worm her way back in with Jason, especially if she believed that Aubry had fully turned against her, and not just wanted to break up her bond with Michele.  Whether it would work is another matter.  Jason strikes me as the type to hold a grudge, and I’m not sure he’d be open to anything Cydney had to say.  True, you could argue he has few options, but I could see him believing he could just immunity his way to the end from here.  

All this to say that while I acknowledge another possibility is available, I suspect Cydney tries to work her way back in with Aubry, having little choice otherwise.  Fortunately for her, Jason is still considered the bigger target, and is in for a round of bad luck.  I don’t see him winning the final four immunity, given how tricky that puzzle was, meaning Tai is the most likely winner.  Sadly, we do miss out on Michele’s kicking of the puzzle, so that’s one downgrade.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Jason, without immunity, goes at final four.  Given that he’s the villain of the season, even in this timeline, there is much rejoicing from the audience.  

Of course, this leads us to the challenge at the final three.  It’s certainly possible that, unless Cydney wins, Aubry goes to the end, so I could see the season following “Survivor Cagayan” even more closely, and going for a final two here.  On the other hand, I don’t think production wants to risk even that, so we probably still have our “Juror Removal” twist and a final three there.  Fittingly, this final three is one “Brain”, one “Brawn”, and one “Beauty”, a fun bit of symmetry.  

Given how close Aubry came in that challenge, coupled with it not playing to Sydney’s strengths, I’d say Aubry is probably the winner of the challenge.  It would be easy to say she just votes Scot off the jury, since that’s what she wanted in our timeline, but in this timeline, I think she goes for Julia.  Also a person guaranteed not to vote for her, but more so than Scot in this timeline.  Scot doesn’t like anybody on this final three.  He doesn’t want to vote for any of them.  Yet, since Aubry burned him the least directly out of those left, I could see her thinking she has a shot at his vote.  And if she doesn’t, well, Julia was never going to vote for her either, so it all evens out anyway.  

Perhaps controversial these days, but I’m inclined to say that Aubry wins in this final three regardless of who she gets rid of.  She has three votes guaranteed on this jury (Neal, Nick, and Joe), and while she definitely has two votes guaranteed against her (Michele and Debbie), I think she has a chance at at least Jason’s vote.  After all, if he and Cydney didn’t mend their relationship, then we know from our timeline that Jason was rooting against Cydney, and Tai directly betrayed him on the Scot boot.  Jason may not care for Aubry, but she’s the least objectionable out of the three.  Add onto that Michele’s excellent Final Tribal performance not being there, and Aubry’s average Final Tribal performance looks a lot better.  It may only be 4-3 (depending on who our final jury member is, and how persuadable they actually are), but Aubry comes out on top here.  

THE LEGACY

Before we get into how this impacts the view of the season as a whole, let’s talk about future seasons, since really, this changes little.  While Jason and Cydney are both bigger, more respected characters, there’s not really a good chance for them to come back.  “Survivor Game Changers” is the only full returnee season since then, and I don’t see them nixing any of the Kaoh Rong players we got in our timeline.  And I don’t see them having more than four from a single season, so that is shot.  Aubry’s win doesn’t preclude her coming back, either, since winners were ok that season.  

That said, her win DOES torpedo her chances, and I’d say Aubry is maybe even first out of this season in this timeline.  One of the reasons I will defend Aubry’s game on Game Changers is that, while she never had any real power, the fact that she even MADE IT that far is impressive.  Game Changers, like “Survivor All-Stars” before it, had an anti-winner bias.  Less because “They already got money”, and more because “They’re the biggest threats.”  This justification led to Aubry being lumped in this group in our timeline, with no less than the Queen herself, Sandra Diaz-Twine, wanting her gone.  After all, the prevailing wisdom at the time was “Aubry should have won.”  Partly by good swap luck, and partly by her own guile, Aubry making it as far as she did, power or no, was nothing short of a miracle, and her game that season deserves respect.  But with an actual win under her belt?  Aubry has no chance of making it far this season.  

Of course, this does preclude her from coming back for Edge of Extinction, so she’ll need a replacement.  This would seem the place to include Cydney, but it’s only in the last year or two that Cydney has said she’s willing to return.  She’s doubtless asked, but I think she declines, for the understandable reason of her body deteriorating from the show not being good for her bodybuilding career.  My next thought for who to put in Aubry’s spot was someone cast after her to match her archetype.  Hannah Shapiro of “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” and Gabby Pascuzzi of “Survivor David vs. Goliath” would probably be the top candidates in that regard.  However, I ended up deciding that neither would go, as the former has stated she won’t play again, while the latter, having just come from the same filming cycle, would be unfamiliar to the fans that season.  She would basically get the same reaction from the players as Amanda on “Survivor Micronesia”, and I don’t think production wants that again.  

No, I think Aubry’s open spot here gives Chrissy Hoffbeck (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) her second shot.  While not the “nerd” archetype that Aubry has, Chrissy still gets the “offbeat choice” niche, while still being a favorite who is known to the fans.  Does this change the season drastically?  Eh, probably not.  While Chrissy might make it farther than Aubry does in our timeline, if only by virtue of actually playing an idol if she finds it, the anti-returnee sentiment on this season was too strong, and we still probably get our unsatisfying Chris win here.  The one upside is that there is no “Drive Aubry away from the fanbase by personally attacking her for a bad game decision”, meaning we have a more active online Aubry in this timeline, for which I, for one, am eternally grateful.  Seriously, fanbase, shame on you for how you acted toward her.  Agree or disagree with her, what you did is not ok.  

While Aubry’s win precludes her from appearing on Edge of Extinction, it puts her in the running for Winners at War.  Given that she’s a relatively recent, popular winner at this point, I don’t see her not coming back.  We don’t even have to speculate about who she replaces, since she just takes the spot Michele had in our timeline.  Does Aubry mimic Michele’s placement this season?  Probably not.  While I am an Aubry fan, I will admit that Michele’s game, while not as fun to watch, is overall smarter in terms of making a deep run.  Both play fantastic games that can be winning ones, but run their seasons a hundred times randomized, and Michele’s strategy wins out more often than Aubry’s.  Aubry probably goes either after the swap, depending on if she gets a bad draw, or early-ish in the merge if not.  Probably around where Adam goes in our timeline is her ceiling, just due to her threat level.  

But what of Kaoh Rong as a whole?  Well, for what I believe is the first time in the history of these blogs, we actually have a timeline change that RETROACTIVELY changes a season, or at least how it’s presented.  Specifically, Aubry’s decision at final six will FORCE the edit to highlight the Cydney/Michele bond a lot more to justify Aubry’s action, which is criticized at the time but in hindsight is seen as a brilliant move.  This paints the pair in a different light.  For want of a better term, a villainous light.  Don’t misunderstand, the pair aren’t the villains of the season; Scot and Jason claimed that title pretty definitively when they started sabotaging the camp.  But the pair are presented in a similar way to Ami on “Survivor Vanuatu”.  Not bad as people, but shrewd players who are an obstacle to our underdog hero.  Thereby de-facto antagonists, if not necessarily villainous.  This is why Cydney gets elevated to a higher status in the fandom, though conversely, Michele kind of becomes a footnote.  

Of course an Aubry win makes Kaoh Rong work much better as a season, and elevates it to at least near-greatness.  I hesitate to give it full greatness, partly taking into account my pro-Aubry bias, and partly because I could see her win being seen as “predictable”, which is often a mark against a season.  The main problem with the season in our timeline is that everything in the narrative tells us that Aubry SHOULD win against anyone.  I know edgic set up Michele as the winner fairly early, but as someone who was firmly watching at the time, I can tell you the assumption was that Michele won because Aubry got eliminated before the finals.  Thus, it still felt wrong when Aubry made finals but lost anyway.  There’s a conflict between what we think SHOULD happen narratively, and what ACTUALLY happens.  An Aubry win avoids that conflict, and at least for me, makes a much better season as a whole.  

Ok, so maybe this was an excuse to give my favorite player a win.  I admit to more bias in this blog than perhaps any other.  Still, I hope the scenario has been at least semi-plausible and fun for everyone, though!  Let me know what scenarios you’d like covered in the future!  I’ll happily give credit to anyone who gives me an idea I use.  Just post it in the comments section of this blog, or wherever you happened to find this blog.  Guidelines for submissions are listed below.  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Island of the Idols.

As always, our suggestions and feedback are much appreciated.  Take care out there, everyone!

-Matt

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Island of the Idols

Ok, I know I usually start these “What If” blogs off fairly coy.  Talk a bit about how a given season was received, and whether we can make it better with one small change.  But there’s not beating around the bush here; it’s just not going to happen with this season.  In case you missed the title, we’re talking about “Island of the Idols”, arguably the most universally reviled season the show has ever produced.  And the causes of that revilement (the actions of Dan Spilo, and production’s responses to said actions) are not something that falls into the realm of my (admittedly self-imposed) restrictions on what changes I will examine.  All that said, there doesn’t mean there aren’t changes in the season worth talking about, and if you’ll permit me, we’ll take a stroll down this season to see what it is, and what it does.  

Also, consider this fair warning that there will be SPOILERS ahead.  It’s difficult to talk about changing how an event went down on a given season without talking about how it originally went down in our own timeline.  Moreover, I also talk about how such a change impacts seasons to come, so spoilers for the (admittedly few) seasons post-season-39, and potentially even a few from before that.  Now that you have been sufficiently warned, let us dig in.  

THE IMPACT

Our change comes to us fairly late in the season, and concerns everyone’s favorite advantage-finder, “Detective” Dean Kowalski.  In the penultimate episode of the season, Dean is sent to the titular “Island of the Idols”, where rather than an actual challenge or test in order to gain a powerful in-game item, Dean just has to get lucky in a coin-flip.  Whoop-De-Doo.  How could anyone possibly forget such an exciting contest, and random advantage in a season dedicated to giving out random advantages?  

Shade-throwing aside, Dean won a choice of three advantages in our timeline, going with an idol nullifier, probably the smartest of the three he could have picked, and as such, I don’t see him realistically choosing any advantage but that one.  Coin flips, however, fall perfectly under the purview of this blog, and so we can see how the outcome changes if Dean ISN’T so lucky in his coin flip.  

Yes, in this new timeline, Dean’s coin flip goes awry.  Instead of gaining an advantage, he loses his vote at the subsequent Tribal Council, the price for his gamble.  Now, fortunately for Dean, this is not an IMMEDIATE doom for his game.  In our timeline, Dean wins the subsequent immunity challenge, and as this coin flip and his performance in the challenge are unrelated, I don’t see any reason Dean doesn’t win said challenge in this new timeline.  His vote, while part of the majority, was also not needed for the ouster of Elaine this episode, so things so far seem ok for Dean.  Dan is still rightfully ejected at the end of the episode, and we move onto our finale, and the larger fallout from Dean’s failed gamble.  

THE FALLOUT

This is where the real meat of this change comes into play.  You see, Dean’s idol nullifier threw a wrench into the plan of Janet.  While she is still on the outs in this timeline, Janet had a hidden immunity idol to help make her way into the final four, where she would have had an edge due to her fire-making skills, demonstrated throughout the season.  She even played it correctly this episode!  The only thing stopping it from working was, you guessed it, Dean’s idol nullifier.  

Shock of all shocks, Janet is successful without an idol nullifier to block her path to the end.  She negates four votes against her, and her preferred target, Lauren, goes home.  At this point, all obstacles are out of Janet’s way.  Even if she didn’t manage to win immunity at the final four, that would merely mean that Noura, who won in our timeline, does so.  For Janet, it doesn’t even matter what happens now.  Whether she gets taken to the end by Noura, or she beats someone in fire-making, she’s all but guaranteed to face a jury that frankly is in love with her, and probably couldn’t wait to hand her the prize money.  If you were to ask me the most likely path here, I’d say Noura probably still takes Tommy to the end, and lets Dean and Janet battle it out for fire making.  Apart from matching up with what we know happened in our timeline, Noura would want Janet out (as would most everyone still in the game), and would thus be sure to put her into fire making.  She’d want the best chance of getting Janet out, and so, since Tommy did such a good job of selling himself as not good at fire, Dean goes in.  Janet, as mentioned before, beats him, and so our final three is now Janet, Noura, and Tommy.  

As mentioned before, Janet is pretty much guaranteed to win this jury.  I don’t want to say she’d have a unanimous victory (I could see people like Lauren and Missy giving Tommy a vote for example), but I don’t see any scenario where Janet doesn’t win.  She was perceived as a threat if she got to this point, was super-likable, and was about the only person who came out looking good from the Dan situation.  Yeah, no way Janet is not winning against this jury.  

THE LEGACY

For the first time in one of these blogs, there’s really not much of anything to talk about in terms of how this changes returnees and returnee seasons.  We’re so late in the “Survivor” overall timeline (at least at the time of this writing) that the only returnee season would be “Winners at War”, filming immediately after this season wrapped.  While Janet is a beloved winner in this timeline, and doubtless both the audience and the producers want her back (more so the former, since the latter probably want to forget this season exists overall), the timing just doesn’t work out.  There’s probably some grumbling from people who don’t understand the shooting schedule as to why Janet wasn’t invited back for that season, but it’s not a huge controversy.  If you wanted me to reach for some change that happens to a later season, I’d say MAYBE the show decides that, given how little impact/excitement came from Dean’s coin flip, they decide this is not a good method for advantages in future seasons.  If so, Michele, for example, might have gone out earlier in “Winners at War” without her coin flip, and things like that.  Really, though, given the show’s propensity to run a bad idea into the ground before admitting it was a bad idea and giving up on it, I’d be somewhat surprised if we even got this.  

No, the big changes down the line are in how various aspects of the season are perceived.  Obviously Janet is beloved in our timeline, and she’s even more beloved as a winner.  Her hype only increases, and I would expect her to be a lock for any future returnee seasons after “Winners at War”, assuming they allow pre-“Survivor 41” contestants back on those.  Conversely, without his glut of advantages to land him in the finals, I suspect Dean falls into obscurity, talked about only as a curiosity, and “What If” scenarios trying to come back to the timeline we know.  Lauren gets slightly more love that she does in our timeline, due to her exit being seen as more “cheap” than in ours, and gets a lot of love as a great strategist taken out by advantages rather than bad play on her part.  And, if we’re talking about perceptions around the show, I doubt the idol nullifier gets as much hate as it does for us now, since we’d only have Carl’s example on “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, aka an example people actually LIKE.  Thus, people start to wonder why it hasn’t really returned (unseen one Omar had on “Survivor 42” notwithstanding), not realizing the proverbial bullet they have dodged.  

The big change, though, is Tommy.  Of course he’s no longer the winner as he is in our timeline.  Yet, oddly, I feel like we would have seen more of him in the season than we did in our timeline.  This is, admittedly, speculation on my part, but I think a lot of the reason Tommy got such little content period was due the show oddly wanting to distance their winner from the season he won.  They could tell pretty much everyone (save Janet and Kellee) would come off looking some degree of “bad”, and so tried to minimize this for their winner.  The issue is that they did this by sucking everything entertaining away as well.  Without his win, there’s not need to make Tommy look like a perfect angel, and thus, they’re free to show more of him, the good and the bad.  “Teaching Time with Tommy” becomes a regular feature of the episodes, or at least as common as Rick Devans’ news updates on “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, and we probably get to hear more of his thoughts on the Dan situation, particularly more about how Dan factored into Tommy’s strategy.  Still, even now he’s not one of the bigger characters on the season, though he might still come back on “The Challenge”, since placement/character on “Survivor” seems to have little to do with who gets on that particular show.  

I said at the outset that we could not make this a good season with this change, and I stand by that.  By the time we’re able to make this particular timeline change, the damage is already done.  Janet’s win will not undo the ugliness of Dan’s actions, and how those actions were handled.  Still, I can see Janet’s win being the “One Redeeming Quality” this season has.  Much as strategy nerds like me love Tommy for winning without ever having individual immunity or an idol/advantage, the most exciting winner he was not.  Because he was so hidden, we didn’t get to know him very well, and thus the audience at large did not connect with him.  Janet, however, comes off well no matter what.  Since we still see so much of her in this timeline, her win is seen as the one good aspect of the season.  Think of it like Kim Spradlin’s victory on “Survivor One World”.  The season as a whole is still garbage, but at least the end result was satisfying.  The main difference, of course, is that “Survivor One World” is merely a poorly-produced season with a terrible overall cast, while “Survivor Island of the Idols” is actively painful and/or triggering for most of the audience, and thus the latter is much more reviled, and rightly so.  Even with that, however, Janet rises above all as something most of the fanbase loves.  

Well, perhaps a weird beginning, but it’s good to be back to these “What-If” blogs!  They’re honestly some of my favorites to write, and I’d like to do more of them moving forward.  That’s where your help comes in!  While I’ve always got a few scenarios running around in my head, there’s room for more.  As such, I want to hear from you what scenarios you’d like to see me cover on this blog!  Leave your submissions in the comments of this blog, or on whatever website linked you to this blog.  Credit will be given if your idea ends up being used.  That said, do be aware that there are some guidelines for getting your preferred scenario considered.  These are listed below:

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Game Changers, Island of the Idols.  

I look forward to seeing your submissions, and giving you more blogs during the off-season.  Take care out there!

-Matt

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 41” Cast Assessment

Congratulations to Rob for correctly identifying the title quote from last episode as originating from Charlie Herschel of “Survivor Gabon”.  Yes, I’m well aware that the contest was over a year ago, but so help me, we haven’t had a “regular” blog since then, and this commenter has EARNED their honor, delayed as it may be.  

Friends, readers, random-internet-passers-by, it is my pleasure, once again, to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to!  Yes, after over a year of starvation, we finally, FINALLY have new “Survivor” content to talk about.  Granted, I could wish for a bit more.  I mean, we have gotten the “EW” pictures and biographies, which are usually the marker for when I do these Cast Assessments, but you don’t want to give us anything?  No photos and bios of your own?  No videos of each of the contestants talking about their strategy?  You’re not even going to give us the official tribe divisions?  Of course not!  I mean, HEAVEN FORBID we know who’s playing with whom before the start of the season!  How dare we analyze tribe dynamics, and speculate pre-season, thereby driving up interest and internet traffic?  Do you know where that leads?  Chaos!  Chaos I say!  

Ok, ok, enough griping at CBS.  I can still work with this, even if it’s not as much as I’m used to, and I can’t analyze tribe dynamics as I normally do (yes, I’m aware that there’s a rumored tribe division from “Inside Survivor”, but until the divisions are announced officially, I don’t consider it canon, and thus won’t write about it.  And I’m not going to frame-by-frame the preview we DID get to try and match people with buff colors.  I do have something of a life).  So, no more joking around.  let us dig into the new players we, at long last, get to overanalyze.  

Sydney Segal (26, Law Student, Brooklyn, NY): Always nice to start off a cast assessment with a strong contender.  Yes, I think Sydney is slated to do pretty well on this season.  By and large, her bio is nothing to write home about.  Pretty standard stuff, talking about how social and athletic she is.  I find it a little weird to specifically refer to your father as a “second Messiah”, but hey, you do you.  The thing that stood out to me, and the thing that makes me high on Sydney’s chances, is the “Survivor” she compares herself to.  If you’re someone new to reading cast bios, you should know that there’s a group of about a half-dozen former players who generally show up in people’s biographies.  You can expect Boston Rob (“Survivor Marquesas”), Parvati Shallow (“Survivor Cook Islands”), Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”), and Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) always show up, and to me, always spell doom for whoever picks the latter.  Then, of course, there are the “recency bias” picks, i.e. good players, but ones who only come from the most recent seasons, indicating this may just be someone production emphasized to the player.  Kelley Wentworth (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) falls into this category, but she seems to have been replaced by Rick Devans (“Survivor Edge of Extinction”) based on this most recent set of bios.  Now, who does Sydney say she’s most like?  Natalie White, winner of “Survivor Samoa”.  That’s a deep cut, right there.  Hard for anyone to stand out on “Survivor Samoa”, aka “The Russell Hantz Show”, so Syndey’s memory of her tells me she’s got the bona-fides.  Sydney also has a good analysis of Natalie’s game, noting her strength in social bonds and flying under the radar.  A solid analysis, and hardly a bad strategy for the game at all.  Sadly, I think Sydney is screwed out of a possible win by the age in which she plays “Survivor”.  Not to say that the “Natalie Strategy” as we may call it isn’t valid anymore, but the new jury format is pretty much set up to reward “big moves”, and more visible games.  While the “Natalie Strategy” has many upsides, visibility is not one of them.  Still, even if she’s unlikely to win, expect Sydney to stick around a while.  She’s got some good skills and is largely inoffensive, so there’s no need to boot her early.  Look to her as a later merge boot, possibly even one of the people out early in the finale.  Sure, I may be extrapolating a lot from a bio that didn’t give us a lot, but hey, if you don’t do anything that stands out as making you an early target, I say you’ve got at least a decent chance.  Besides, you could also say that Michele Fitzgerald’s bio on “Survivor Kaoh Rong” didn’t give us a lot to work with, and we saw how that turned out.  

Danny McCray (33, Ex-NFL Player, Frisco, TX): Hoo boy.  It’s time once again.  Time for the segment of “People Who Are Crazy For Thinking They’re Made For This Show”.  Look, Danny seems like a nice, overall dude.  I admire him for not just relying on his talent in sports to carry him through his entire life, and his drive to continue to improve himself at what the show considers an “older” age.  But one of the main things I look at in these bios is the “Pet Peeve” section, since I feel it can give a good idea of how well you get along with others, and if your first pet peeve is “Lying”?  Man, what were you thinking!  Sure, go on the show all about lying and backstabbing when that very thing gets to you.  See how far that gets you.  Danny has a lot of good characteristics, but unless his tribe needs physical strength very badly, or he’s able to put his distaste for lying aside, the man is a pre-merge boot for sure.  

Liana Wallace (20, College Student, Washington, DC): I’ll admit, I got a bit worried when I saw Liana talk about performing her spoken word poetry.  Nothing against the art form or those who practice it, but it gave me flashbacks to Semhar from “Survivor South Pacific”, whose game is NOT one you want to emulate.  Thankfully, this is where their similarities end, so I think Liana will do pretty well on the show.  Not a lot to recommend her one way or the other.  She just seems like a nice, adventurous, younger player who won’t hold her team back anyway, and be pretty inoffensive overall.  Two things stop me from saying she’ll make it too deep, though.  She suggests emulating Tony (“Survivor Cagayan”) and Elaine (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), so I don’t know about her game knowledge credentials, as both were on the last two seasons.  Plus, I don’t see their play styles meshing very well.  The real thing that I think holds her back from a win, though, is her age.  I know we’ve had winners nearly as young before, but I think back to my college days, and even though I THOUGHT I had the skills to win at that time, I really didn’t.  I had more growing-up to do, and while Liana seems lovely overall, I just have a hard time saying anyone that young has a good shot at winning.  Still, like Sydney earlier, Liana is an inoffensive asset to her tribe, so I expect her to be out no earlier than the early-merge, and probably more like mid-merge, given the group of people on this season.  

Brad Reese (50, Rancher, Shawnee, WY): A fun fact about Brad is that he’s the first player to ever hail from the state of Wyoming.  Perhaps not surprising, as it does have the smallest population in the USA, but still fun.  I hope Brad enjoys that fact, because there’s little else to recommend him.  His bio gives us practically nothing, just a lot of generic platitudes about strength and outdoorsmanship.  As such, we have to consider how well he fits in with this group of players as a whole.  Not well.  The answer is not well.  Brad has the misfortune of being an older guy on a season that, while not as bad as some, skews young overall.  Brad is a rural outdoorsman, while most of this cast is urban.  If Brad had talked a bit about his ability to fit in with diverse groups of people, I might give him more of a shot, but amongst this group, Brad sticks out like a sore thumb, and I just don’t see him getting along with these people.  As such, Brad is my pick to be the first person out this season.  Sorry, Brad, and sorry, Wyoming.  Maybe you can get another player with a group more simpatico to their lifestyle.  

Erika Casupanan (32, Communication Manager, Toronto, ON): At last, Canada has a representative on this show!  Ok, yeah, they had Tom Laidlaw on “Survivor Island of the Idols”, but really, did they, for all the impact Tom had on the season?  Besides, Erika is a MUCH better representative overall.  Yes, ladies and gentlemen, we go from the worst to the best.  Erika is one of my two winner picks for this season!  Why, you may ask?  Well, as with most of the winners, she has a good balance.  Athletic, without seeming to be a threat.  Sociable, without descending into obsequiousness.  From her questionnaire, while she does list “ignorance” as one of her pet peeves, she’s not guaranteed to come up against it, and her other, “men in ill-fitting jeans” shows a good sense of humor on her part, always an asset.  She calls out good but less remembered-players in Brenda (“Survivor Nicaragua”) and Todd (“Survivor China”) as her inspirations.  And all in an unassuming package.  If I HAD to find a flaw that could cost her the game, I could see her being slightly arrogant.  She talks about paying off her student loan debt at age 27, and if she brags about that, or how smart she is, that could cost her.  That said, she seems to have enough social sense to keep that on the down-low, and I can easily see her rocketing to victory.  

Jairus Robinson (20, College Student”, Oklahoma City, OK): Jairus is one of the few players here that I have a bit more information on than some of the others.  His audition video happened to show up on YouTube, and I watched it.  This is good, because a lot of Jairus’ bio comes off as overconfident, talking about how he’s good socially, mentally, and physically.  Pretty generic, semi-bragging stuff that you see from most people, but again, especially with his age, could easily be him having a bad perception of himself.  Having seen his audition video, I can say that’s he’s not ENTIRELY unjustified in his claims.  If nothing else, the dude just EXUDES charm, and even from a 3-minute video, you can’t help but like the guy.  So yeah, of all the young people on this season, he’s the one I think his age will be least a factor for.  Still a factor, though.  Jairus will do reasonably well, being useful to his tribe and charming enough to work his way into an alliance, but will be blindsided some time in the mid-merge, just by being proverbially spun around by contestants with more life experience.  Good fodder for a returnee winner, though.  

Evvie Jagoda (28, Ph.D. Student, Arlington, MA): This is where the lack of tribe divisions gives me issue, as Evvie’s time in the game is almost entirely dependent on who she ends up playing with early game.  Her pet peeve, you see, is “machismo and man-splainers”.  There are some guys like that on the season, and thus who she’ll come into conflict with if she’s with them.  Given that these type of people tend to be useful in challenges, and thus more likely to be kept around, she’s probably out early if she’s with some of them.  Conversely, if she ends up on a tribe without such men, I could see her doing well.  She seems like she’d be a sensible, reliable alliance member.  A bit quirky, perhaps, but fun nonetheless.  That said, this blog does force me to pick one side or the other, and without the benefit of tribe divisions to give me an easy out… Sorry, Evvie, but I think you’re another pre-merge boot.  While I personally enjoy someone who’s quirky, and can hold a good, intelligent conversation (she spent an entire podcast talking about Neanderthal women.  That is awesome.), said type of person also tends to stand out in a crowd, not a good thing in the early days of “Survivor”.  I pray that I’m wrong, as I really like her and think she makes for good tv, but if I have to choose, I think pre-merge for her, unfortunately.  

Ricard Foye (31, Flight Attendant, Sedro-Wooley, WA): Apologies for not having an accent over the “e” in “Foye”, but I can never remember how to do that with a standard English keyboard.  Getting onto Ricard specifically, I like the guy.  In fact, I’d say he’s my favorite of the season. He’s charming, but still with a personality that stands out.  Dude has a lot of eclectic life experiences, but still down to earth with a relatable career and family life.  And that smile.  Dude just has a really engaging smile.  That alone may be enough to catapult him to victory, as Ricard is my second winner pick overall.  Put a gun to my head and force me to choose, I think Erika beats him, but Ricard still has pretty good shot.  Once again fairly athletic, but not obviously so.  But like I said, the dude just exudes charm, and I’m a social game like “Survivor”, it’s hard to discount the value of that.  With no major negatives that I can note, I can’t help but give the guy my seal of approval, and my second winner pick.  Plus, the dude says he wants to emulate Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  Can’t help but like a dude that likes Aubry.  

Shantel Smith (34, Pastor, Washington, DC): Ooh, sorry, Canada.  Not hitting on both cylinders, even this time.  Yes, I know that Shantel is currently not living in Canada, but it’s her hometown, so she still counts.  At first, I was pretty high on Shantel.  Good age for self-knowledge and game knowledge.  Good life experience.  “Bad breath” as a pet peeve a bit concerning, but hey, you don’t need to stand nose-to-nose with someone while they’re talking, and maybe her tribe will win the “toothbrush and mouthwash” reward.  A good role model in Xena.  But ooh, the religion angle.  Long-time readers will know I’m gun-shy about such overt religion on “Survivor” ever since we were seeped in it in “Survivor South Pacific”.  Yes, since then some overtly religious individuals such as Lisa Welchel (“Survivor Philippines”) or Sunday Burquest (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) have done well, but the overall trend is more towards religion separating that person from other, less-religious people, particularly in a largely a-religious cast like this one seems to be.  I tried to ignore it, and when Shantel predominately cites her “reverence for God”, as why she’ll win, I can’t ignore it any longer.  She’s not the first boot by any means, but I expect her out pre-merge.  

Naseer Muttalif (37, Sales Manager, Morgan Hill, CA): Poor Naseer.  The guy seems like an interesting character with a unique backstory, so I wanted to see him do well.  Sales is one of the few careers that I think CAN help one prepare for “Survivor” in some small way, so I hoped that Naseer might be able to parlay that into a long stay in the game.  Unfortunately, the rest of his bio does not do him any favors.  His pet peeves are “Laziness and people who don’t contribute to group efforts”, meaning unless he’s on a VERY cohesive and successful tribe early on, he’s going to rub some people the wrong way.  Then you have to add onto that his backstory, which is interesting.  He talks about coming up from being a vegetable farmer, and growing up without electricity in Sri Lanka.  Good stuff, but the dude comes across a bit arrogant, in the “I’m living the American Dream” kind of way.  Not saying he hasn’t earned it, but that kind of talk can get old fast, and if he keeps bringing it up, it won’t do him any favors.  It’s possible he can be more sociable thanks to his sales training, and if his tribe is successful early on, he might make the merge.  There, though, he becomes a threat, so I see him making it no farther than an early-merge boot of this season, unfortunately.  

Genie Chen (46, Grocery Clerk, Portland, OR): Ack!  Pain!  PAIN!  This hurts.  So much.  God Damn, I love Genie already.  An older lady who likes video games.  An older lady not afraid to get out and hustle.  Her pet peeves revolve around proper mask wearing, you guys!  If you don’t love Genie at least a little, then I don’t know what happened to you.  But love, unfortunately, does not win the game of “Survivor”, and much like Evvie, the very things that make me like her are the things that make her a likely early boot on the show.  She’s older and not as athletic; always an issue in the early game.  She stands out from the other contestants, which again, good tv, bad for game.  Unless she’s on an exceptionally winning tribe, she’s going to be an early target and our screens will be the worse for it.  I hope that I’m wrong.  I hope she becomes the next Lauren Rimmer (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”), and shows us heretofore unexpected social prowess that allows her to get deep and dominate the game!  More likely, however, she’s yet another pre-merge boot.  

Xander Hastings (21, App Developer, Chicago, IL): I swear this bio must be wrong.  It may say he’s 21, but the guy gives off more of a “20 year old” vibe than any of the ACTUAL 20 year olds!  A dude-bro to the end, the dude focusses on athletics above all else.  Hell, his idols in the game are predominately Jay (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”), but also Joe (“Survivor Worlds Apart”), and Devon (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”).  Maybe it’s just my disdain for the dude-bro archetype (a large contributing factor in why I disagree with those who say Reynold from “Survivor Caramoan” should play again), but I REALLY don’t like this guy, and I get the sense that others won’t as well.  I would not put any of the above players into the “stellar player” category, but Xander is DEFINITELY beneath them.  Those guys had a certain charm, and at least a MODICUM on intelligence to help them get by.  I get none of that from Xander, and thus, he is yet another pre-merge boot.  Plus, on top off all that stuff, his pet peeves are “Laziness and cockiness”, two things that are clearly NEVER seen on this show (please note the sarcasm)!

Sara Wilson (24, Healthcare Consultant, Boston MA): Well, there’s one of these in every cast assessment.  One person who I just can’t get a good read on.  Nothing.  This woman gives me nothing.  Her pet peeves are pretty typical (loud chewing, crude humor, etc.), with only uncleanliness standing out at all, and even then only in a minor way.  Admires Kim Spradlin of “Survivor One World”, which is always a plus, though I’m not sure Sara has the life experience to pull it off.  And that’s it.  that’s all I’ve got for her.  She’s inoffensive, but doesn’t make a big splash on the tv screen.  That said, being quiet can be an advantage, and again, like with Sydney, if you’ve got nothing holding you back, I’m inclined to think you’ll do well.  We may not see much of Sara, but she’ll be there a while.  Probably out somewhere in the mid-merge area, as a blindside vote to avoid an idol.  

David Voce (35, Neurosurgeon, Chicago, IL): Once again, bad flashbacks based on an element of the bio.  This time, I see “Neurosurgeon”, and I jump to Sean Kenniff of “Survivor Borneo”.  Terrible at strategy, but hey, fun to watch.  Sadly, while David definitely has a leg up on Sean in terms of strategy, I’d say charm is severely lacking.  Similar to Xander, his pet peeves are “incompetence, laziness, and a lack of self-awareness”.  Can pretty much guarantee at least 2/3 of those on any given tribe on any given season.  Dude’s smart, which can help, but admits to a “confident exterior”, which can lead to arrogance, which again, get’s old fast.  His nail in the coffin is that he’s yet another person who thinks it’s a good idea to emulate Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”).  To be fair, he DOES acknowledge the flaws in Russell’s game, and names several other players he feels he embodies, but it’s a resume stain that’s REALLY hard to rub away.  He’s lucky in that there’s a couple of other players we’ve talked about so far (Xander in particular), who have some similar issues that he does, and in a greater capacity in my assessment, which may make him seem more reasonable and even-keeled by comparison.  The thought won’t go away in others, however, particularly if David doesn’t end up on a tribe with someone else as confident as him  He’s probably smart enough to slip by pre-merge, but once all the other people who annoy the rest of the cast are gone, he’s on the chopping block.  Assuming another oversized merge, he’s probably the easy consensus boot for annoying everyone else, and goes then.  

Deshawn Radden (26, Medical Student, Miami, FL): I’ve been kind of hard on the guys lately, haven’t I?  Thankfully, Deshawn gives me a well-deserved break from that!  The dude starts out a bit weak in his bio, to be fair.  Pet peeve is being told what to do, which is bound to come up.  Apart from that, however, the man is solid.  Another athlete who is not obviously athletic, and a charmer with a great smile.  Obviously a thinker, but not leaning into the “nerd” archetype so much, which makes for a nice change.  Yeah, a lot of other people have said similar things, and I gave them flak for it, but I’m charmed by the guy even just looking at his picture.  If, in the game, he has even a fraction of that charm, he’ll go far.  The pet peeve is enough to keep him out of a possible winner’s slot for me, and if he does get into an argument with the wrong person, he could go early, but I’d expect his charm to carry him for a while.  Probably mid-to-late merge area, if I were to put a relative number on it.  

Tiffany Seely (47, Teacher, Plainview, NY): Another case where I REALLY wish we had tribe divisions.  Tiffany is our “Mom” of the season, an archetype with an overall bad track record outside of Tina Wesson (“Survivor The Australian Outback”).  Granted, this season has a fair share of “older players”, but it still skews young, and the general trend on “Survivor” is that the young people either vote out the “Mom” early, or let her get to the end and then are upset that she voted them out.  Tiffany really needs to be on a tribe with a couple other older people, both for camouflage and to prevent being cast too fully as the “Mom”.  Not helped are her choices of whom to emulate on the season.  I’m always a fan when people name a contestant of a different gender whom they’re like, but Ozzy (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Colby (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) are not the type of games that do well these days.  Unless she gets lucky with the tribe draw, expect Tiffany to be a pre-merge boot.  

Eric Abraham (51, Cyber Security Analyst, San Antonio, TX): Eric falls into the rare “Dad” archetype, in my assessment.  This makes him tough to analyze, as there’s not really anyone else who falls into the “Dad” role so easily and obviously as Eric does.  I thought they might focus on his cyber-security job; come across as really analytical and the like  But Eric seems to see himself more as a father and family man than anything.  This can be good and comforting, and while a benefit, I don’t see him winning “Survivor” with that strategy.  It falls into a similar pitfall as the “Mom” archetype, with any betrayal seeming personal.  Plus, anyone with an Oedipus complex is going to want Eric out.  While it’s hard to psychoanalyze people based off a short interview, however, I don’t see anyone going quite that far, and thus, I don’t see Eric being an early target.  Yes, he is old.  In fact, he’s the second-oldest person playing this season.  But you wouldn’t know it from looking at him, so unless he’s the reason his tribe loses an early challenge, I expect Eric’s fatherly demeanor to keep him around a while.  Probably a mid-merge boot, maybe a bit earlier if someone really wants to go full Oedipus.  

Heather Aldret (52, Stay-at-Home Mom, Charleston SC): Well, I spoke too soon.  Meet the ACTUAL mom archetype of the season, as well as the oldest person playing.  Sadly for Heather, I don’t think she has even Tiffany’s ability to blend in.  Older, not obviously athletic, an archetype with a tendency to go out early?  Yeah, she may pay lip service to her skills at observation, and make reasonable player comparisons for herself, but unless she surprises me with evidence to back it up, I don’t see her lasting very long.  Even if she ends up on a tribe with other “older” players, she’s from a different lifestyle than most of the other players this season.  Nothing wrong with that, but it makes it difficult for her to fit in, and thus tanks her chances in the game.  We end on the downer note of one final pre-merge boot.  

Man, that was refreshing!  I may not be able to discuss tribe dynamics here but I can still discuss the cast.  I’ve gotta say, I think it’s a pretty good one.  In the COVID-19 Hiatus, amongst other things, CBS promised more diversity in casting, with at least 50% of each cast being BIPOC, a decision I’m all for, and I think this cast alone shows the benefits of doing so!  For all my snark, this is overall an engaging, likable cast.  Most everyone brings at least some unique experience to the table that adds to the flavor of the whole season, and there’s no one I really dislike on sight (except for Xander, and I’ll leave myself open to the possibility that his bio brought out the worst in him, and he’ll actually be quite a likable guy on-screen).  Obviously, we don’t know how things could play out, but based on the VERY little information we’ve gotten, I’m optimistic about how this season will play out.  

Then, we should at least talk a bit about the one video CBS DID deign to give us: A 3-minute preview where Probst talks about things to come.  First off, I was glad to see that they’re not hiding the fact that the season is shortened due to COVID-19.  I have nothing against them shortening the season, recognizing its necessity, but was afraid they might try and pull the wool over our eyes.  Thankfully, they fully admit the abbreviated nature of the season, and as such, I default to what seems to be people’s general attitudes towards this change: “Nothing wrong with it, but I hope it doesn’t stay as a permanent fixture post-COVID”.  As a fan who does enjoy the challenges, I fear that if seasons stay abbreviated, those’ll be the first things to get the axe.  The game will still be the game we all enjoy, and faster or slower, it’s good to have it back.  If this is what it takes, it’s a more than fair price.  

Probst was also keen to tout simple play-along picture puzzles for younger viewers.  Unless they’re super-intrusive, and distract from the game, I don’t mind the inclusion.  The puzzles seemed a bit simplistic to me, but hey, they’re explicitly for kids, and engagement is a good thing.  One of the few things I actually liked about “Survivor Nicaragua” was the giving us a similarly-styled idol clue to try and figure out before the players.  Fun, engaging idea.  Just don’t let it get in the way of what we came to see.  

The announcement I have the most opinions on, though, is the “asides”.  Probst has said he and production plan to let fans watching know about twists thrown in the game before they happen.  I’ll have to wait and see how they’re implemented before giving a final judgement, but I’m not a fan of this idea at the outset.  Don’t misunderstand, I get why they plan to do it.  It’s more engagement, like with the puzzles, though this time more for the older fans watching.  But for me, I feel like we superfans already did that.  Whenever some new twist or opportunity was in the game, we always backseat game.  Debated what we would have done in another player’s shoes.  But above all, knowing the twist before it happens ruins the surprise, and kind of kills the engagement in a way.  When we learn about a twist the same time as the players, we can play along with them.  React in the moment.  Probst, however, is talking about letting us know the twists early, before the players do.  This gives us more time to think, and actually removes us more from the players, rather than bringing us closer to them.  Plus, when the show is already struggling to fit everything it has into its short air time, extra narration is something we DO NOT NEED!  

That said, it’s usually cast, not production decisions, that make or break a season.  There are exceptions (see “Survivor Edge of Extinction”), but on the whole, you have a good cast, you have a good season.  For my money, it looks like “Survivor 41” has quite a good cast, so I look forward to writing with you all about them on a weekly basis come September 22nd!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

“Survivor” Retrospectives: Kaoh Rong

Having gone through a controversial opinion on a season with our last blog, let’s now talk about a season that was, in and of itself, controversial. Yes, the time has come for us to discuss “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, a season that I’m confident in saying has been the most divisive amongst the fanbase since “Survivor Samoa”, at least in terms of outcome. But did it have to be that way? And does that controversy come from a good place, or a bad one? Hopefully, by dissecting this season, we can uncover the answer.

A quick word of warning before we begin: This season will be providing an objective summary of, and subjective critique of, the entire season of Kaoh Rong. This means there will be SPOILERS, as we’ll be talking about the season from the standpoint of someone who has seen the whole thing. If you are not one such person, you do not want to read the entirety of this blog. If you still wish to hear my subjective opinion on this season, without worrying about spoilers, simply scroll to the bottom of this page. There is a section labeled “Abstract”, where I give just such an opinion. For those of you who do want the details, read on.

CAST

This cast gave us Aubry Bracco. Aubry Bracco is the most perfect contestant the show has ever had.

Score: 10 out of 10

Ok, ok, let’s actually talk about the cast now. In all seriousness, Aubry is easily the biggest name to come out of the cast of this entire season. It’s actually fairly easy to detail why, as Aubry’s whole story was laid out in a microcosm during the first episode. As such, we’ll summarize Aubry’s episode 1 story arc, and use that to explain her overall story arc. Initially, Aubry was not doing so well. Heat was a big problem this season, and it hit Aubry hard in the first two days. She got severely dehydrated, and even talked about quitting. She was talked out of it by her fellow contestants (Debbie in particular), but was still on thin ice going into the immunity challenge. Said challenge involved a lot of individual phases, including diving down to retrieve paddles, pulling a heavy boat up on shore, and of course, solving a puzzle. All physically and mentally demanding tasks, yet Aubry did them all for her tribe. Sure, she had help on the puzzle and pulling the boat, but it’s still no easy feat. Plus, as Probst pointed out, Aubry retrieved all the paddles for her tribe, when the other tribes had to switch out at some point. This, on a season wherein one tribe was explicitly labeled “Brawn”. The nerdy kid schools everyone, shows hidden depths, and overcomes great adversity. This shows us Aubry in episode 1, and shows us her throughout the season. While not quite to the degree of Spencer (“Survivor Cagayan”), Aubry was plagued by bad luck, often not of her own making, yet somehow managed to not only hang on, but become a dominant strategic force as the season progressed. Through it all, she was a charming and likable narrator, with a lot of good metaphors for the game (I’m particularly fond of the “Oregon Trail” one). Admittedly, Aubry did occasionally shoot herself in the foot (note that a large part of what she had to prove in the end during that first challenge was because of her own collapse), and had some good luck as well. However, the former is rarer than people give her credit for, and the latter could be said of just about every winner. Not that Aubry wins. Oh, we’ll be getting to that, I assure you. But the perception definitely comes across, and Aubry both benefits and suffers for it in future seasons. For now, though, Aubry is the narrator and driving force of the season, coming in an unexpected package, and making her my personal favorite player of all time. Definitely a benefit to the season.

Not to say that Aubry was or is the most universally beloved of the cast. No, that honor could only go to one Tai Trang. A diminutive Vietnamese man, Tai was going to be a bit of an odd duck from the beginning. Placed on the “Beauty” tribe despite not being conventionally attractive, Tai further stood out by being a staunch vegetarian and general friend of the environment. He looked for an idol early on, but dug up entire saplings so as not to damage them in the process. When the tribe won chickens, Tai made sure they were able to roam relatively free, and even saved one (Mark) from overall execution. Further, Tai developed a close bond with Caleb Reynolds. Caleb would fall into the category of “Memorable at the time, but now forgotten”, but since he’s so closely tied in to Tai, we’ll talk about him here. Caleb was already well-known coming into the season, having previously been a player on “Big Brother”. Caleb was also well known for being fairly socially conservative, particularly when it came to homosexuality. This could easily have put him in conflict with Tai, who’s gay. However, echoing the Richard/Rudy dynamic of “Survivor Borneo”, the pair seemed to move past that obstacle, and formed a tight bond during their mutual time on the island. True, they didn’t have the same cutthroatness that Richard and Rudy had, but they made up for it with more heart than the former pair. True, Rudy did come to accept Richard, sexuality and all, but Caleb was even willing to let Tai playfully kiss him, the sort of open embrace I’m not sure Rudy would ever have been capable of. That helped Caleb and Tai stand out, and made everyone like them all the more. We’ll have to save the thoughts on Caleb (and why he’s now largely forgotten) for the “Twist” section as a lot of it relates to the manner of his exit. Getting back to Tai, though, the fact is we’d really never seen anyone quite like Tai, and he was nothing if not unapologetically himself. Many of his stances, particularly regarding the chickens, should have got him voted out. We’d seen it in previous seasons (see Kappenberg, Kimmi). Yet, thanks in part to avoiding early Tribal Councils, Tai survived, and came to be accepted, quirks and all. Always an uplifting story, and one that made Tai, for my part, a rightly beloved part of the season.

If you were to ask about the biggest character of the season, and another unapologetic personality, one could only look to Debbie Wanner. How to describe Debbie? I’m not sure there’s a way, since even the show couldn’t. Debbie had a running gag, having listed off her many careers in the first episode, of having her career change in every chyron for every interview she gave. They even had it change MID-INTERVIEW once, when she mentioned a career that she had previously forgotten. Debbie was also a cheerleader, though, and so could often be heard yelling such gems as “We have the biggest frontal lobes!” in the background of scenes, even if she wasn’t the focus. Debbie was there, and much like Tai, always herself. If someone makes it deep, this is endearing. Debbie did make it deep, and so she is endearing.

But for all this talk, we’ve yet to actually talk about our winner of the season. Michele Fitzgerald falls into the odd category of “Memorable for Not Being Memorable”, kind of similar to Purple Kelly from “Survivor Nicaragua”. Michele had her moments, to be sure. A few key challenge victories, and some snarky comments helped keep her in the public eye. Yet, it’s the fact that she won, up against steep competition, that people remember her for. In my opinion, despite this relative lack of screentime, Michele is still a good addition to the season. She’s not the main draw, but what she does bring is good, and you see enough of her game to make her a solid winner in her own right. Of course, she doesn’t exist in a vacuum, but we’ll talk about THAT controversy in the “Overall” section. For now, Michele may not be the biggest character to come out of the season, but she’s certainly a sound player.

Rounding out our players who are still memorable to this day would be Cydney Gillon. Our only “Brawn” representative in this category, Cydney actually started out a bit low-key. Despite promising confrontation and drama (she mentioned having “split personalities” in her cast bio), she got herself into the majority alliance on her tribe and just kind of sat there. We saw her make a few sub alliances, and play both sides of the fence, so we knew she was a player, but she didn’t really come into her own until after the merge. Cydney was once again in a solid majority there, but due to some miscommunication and suspicion, Cydney flipped on her alliance to become what was shown as a power couple with the aforementioned Aubry, effectively running the game from that point on. What works best about Cydney for me is that she defies expectations. You hear “brawn” as a designation, and you think of them as being the “dumb jocks”, the effective opposite of a “brain”. And yes, Cydney definitely has physical skills, but what really made her stand out was her social and strategic prowess. She may not have made the smartest move in flipping the game when she did, but damn if she didn’t do a good job of keeping control once she had it. A fascinating arc, meaning all the memorable characters from this season are still memorable for a good reason.

Moving on to the players who were remembered at the time, but now seem to be lost to “Survivor” history as a whole, this is where the bulk of the “Brawn” tribe ends up. Chief amongst these would be our villains for the season, Scot Pollard and Kyle Jason, who went by his last name. Scot and Jason were the aforementioned dominant alliance on the “Brawn” tribe, and, to put it mildly, were not the nicest people around. Bossy, arrogant, and hypocritical, the pair effectively used their might as a reason to keep them around, and felt they could behave however they wanted. Post-merge, this led to a lot of camp sabotage once it was clear they were no longer in the majority, but pre-merge, this led to the bullying of one Alecia Holden. Alecia was a bit of an oddity on the “Brawn” tribe, having no obvious physical strength, and making few contributions to anything survival-wise or challenge-wise. Despite this, she continued to stand up for herself, and even survived a few votes (admittedly mostly due to other members of her tribe self-destructing, but survived nonetheless). I have to admire her for refusing to kowtow even in the face of scathing attacks, even if she wasn’t my favorite, and brought little to the table besides. Our first boot is really not memorable as first boots go, so rounding out our “Brawn” tribe is Jennifer Lanzetti, a Ming-Na Wen lookalike who did little in the game, but did have to have a bug floated out of her ear, and stood up during her exit Tribal Council to protest the way the vote seemed to be headed. Not the biggest character, but deserves some respect for being willing to shake things up. That said, I can’t fault most of these players for being forgotten. They made for some interesting pre-merge drama, but even Scot and Jason, the only two to make it deep, were, well, villains, and so not the most pleasant. I will say it’s a bit of a shame that Jason has fallen by the wayside, since he does seem to be open to criticism and change in post-game interviews, and could make for a decently interesting returnee.

In contrast to the “Brawn” tribe, there’s really only one person each from the “Brains” and the “Beauty” that’s been forgotten post-season. From the “Brains”, we get our pre-merge “Villain” of Peter Baggenstos. I say “villain” because while Peter was portrayed negatively, he didn’t really do much that was evil. Apart from conspiring to betray Aubry, this Barack Obama look-alike had sort of a mini-Spencer arc from “Survivor Cagayan” in and of that everything he tried to do blew up in his face. He had no traction, and was unceremoniously voted out pre-merge. He helped keep that part of the game interesting, but as he had no impact beyond that, I can’t fault his being forgotten. More upsetting is the vanishing of Julia Sokolowski of the “Beauty” tribe. Julia was a teenager playing “Survivor”, at this point a rarity but no unheard of. What separated Julia from previous teenage players, however, was her skill at the game. She successfully lied about her age, was considered a “threat” by the other big threats, and even managed to sneak in an immunity win at a crucial time. Maybe not as huge in the character department, but for such a youngster, that’s some serious skill! It’s a real crime that she hasn’t been invited back at this point.

This begs the question, though: Why were these people forgotten? Well, apart from there being such stiff competition (I really can’t overemphasize how big Aubry, Michele, Tai, Cydney, and Debbie are), the big problem will actually come up in the “Overall” section. As I’ve hinted at, there’s a controversy about this season we’ll talk about there, and that controversy kind of colored people’s perception of the season as a whole. Suffice to say, it was a negative effect, and people don’t like negativity (shocking, I know). Given that, it’s frankly astonishing we’ve had as many returnees as we’ve had, and speaks to the strength of the cast as a whole. True, we got a few duds, but we also got a good helping of being characters and strategists, most of whom made it fairly deep. Maybe not the best cast the show has ever had, but an above-average one to be sure.

Score: 8 out of 10.

CHALLENGES

Kaoh Rong continued the trend of newbie seasons not really caring about getting creative or innovative with the challenges at all. Not to say that the challenges were boring or uninteresting. Indeed, one thing I will credit this season with is making the individual challenges as big and epic as the tribal challenges. There was really no weak link, but few challenges from this season went on to become staples in later seasons, but the challenges are not this season’s main selling point. They hold their own, but do little more than that. I will make this score slightly higher than this summary might seem, for reasons that will become clear shortly in the “twist” section.

Score: 7 out of 10.

TWISTS

As I’ve hinted at before, the theme this time around was a rehash of “Survivor Cagayan”. This was “Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty 2”, and on paper, this seems like a very poor choice. However good Kaoh Rong ended up being, it was going to be compared to “Survivor Cagayan”, which was and is widely considered one of the best seasons ever, and of the “modern” era in particular. It’s sort of the same pitfall “Survivor Caramoan” had by being “Fans vs. Favorites 2”: However good you are, you most likely will be looked down upon for not being as good as the first. It’s true that Kaoh Rong does not live up to the standards of “Survivor Cagayan”, but oddly this choice doesn’t have as much of an impact as one might think. The theme is brought up less than it was on “Survivor Cagayan”, allowing the cast of Kaoh Rong to stand more on their own merits, and it is interesting to see the same twist play out differently with different casts. For instance, the “Brains” were the disaster tribe on “Survivor Cagayan”, while for Kaoh Rong, the disaster tribe were the “Brawn”. Also, if you HAVE to divide three tribes by some theme, “Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty” feels more natural a divide than any other one the show has tried, so I can’t fault them too much.

Our announced pre-season gimmick this time around was the essential return of the “Super idol”, which could be played after the votes were read. Unlike previous ones, however, it wasn’t just one idol to be found. Instead, individual hidden immunity idols could be locked together to form a super idol, thus necessitating cooperative play. I do like the increased emphasis on social play as facilitated by this twist, but that’s really about it. Super idols, as the name would imply, are just too overpowered, and while they ultimately didn’t factor in too much to this season, it’s more an absence of bad than the presence of good with this twist. Plus, if someone had managed to get their hands on two hidden immunity idols, they would have had basically a free super idol with no social play needed, a possibility too horrible to consider.

The other pre-season gimmick, though far less prevalent and less hyped, was the presence of choices at challenges. I’m not just talking about choosing between types of reward, though there was a certain amount of that in the season as well. Starting with the first immunity challenge, and used a few times throughout, people could choose how they wanted to do the challenge. For example, after a certain race, one could choose to either solve a puzzle or complete a balance portion. This was a brilliant move with the only flaw being that it wasn’t utilized more throughout the season. When it did show up, it led to greater strategizing regarding the challenges, and fun dilemmas you could debate with fellow fans. The downside? None I can think of.

Episode one actually played out in a pretty straightforward manner, after our usual “Grab supplies off the boat” opener, with our first blindside coming in episode two. The Brawn tribe had an initial majority of four, being Cydney, Jennifer, Jason, and Scot. However, when Jennifer got caught trying to form a women’s alliance against Jason and Scot, the tables were turned on her, despite Jennifer not ultimately going through with the plan. This also was our first hint at the beauty of Cydney’s game, since she used the opportunity to get close to Alecia, and then get Jason and Scot to grab the idol from Alecia, despite Alecia having found the clue first. The Brains tribe followed a similar blindside pattern in Episode three. The majority had originally been the pairs of Peter and Liz, plus Aubry and Neal, joining up against Debbie and Joe, the latter of whom is really only notable for being the second-oldest person to ever play, behind Rudy Boesch of “Survivor Borneo”. This plan got derailed when Peter and Liz planned to split the vote to blindside Aubry. Debbie, however, got wind of the plan, informed Aubry and Neal, and used that information to flip the vote against Liz, explaining why she didn’t get mentioned earlier. While none of these blindsides are earth-shattering, they did set the stage for the majority alliance never being quite safe this season, which is always good in terms of mystery and unpredictability. Maybe not spectacular, but still a solid start to the season, setting up for good things to come.

Episode four is infamous, but not for any blindsides. Rather than market the challenge choices pre-season, one thing the show DID hype up was a record number of medical evacuations, the first of which occurred in this episode. Players competed in a challenge that involved digging in the sand. The trouble was, they had the hottest weather yet, and the challenge took longer than expected, leading to three players (one from each tribe) getting heat stroke. Debbie got it for the Brains, and Cydney for the Brawn, but it was Caleb, so determined to get his tribe even a second-place finish, who pushed himself too far and needed to be evacuated, the first beauty loss. Frankly, a painful thing to watch, and not helped by the lackluster back-half of the episode. Alecia was predictably booted, and while I respect her refusal to hold Tribal Council immediately after the challenge, as suggested by Jason, it did lead to a forgettable exit. This is also pretty much the only reason Caleb was remembered, as he brought little else to the season. He was determined, and wanted his second chance. He got it, and so now there’s no real further need for him in “Survivor”.

The usual tribe swap comes in episode 5, though with an odd number of people, we have someone getting left out. That someone was Julia, who got sent to live at the Brawn camp, renamed “Exile Island”, to rejoin the losing tribe later. While unplanned, this did make the shake-up more memorable than most of the recent tribe swaps, and gave us a good chance to see the inner strength of Julia, which was always a plus. Chan Loh (the former Brains tribe), had a 2-2-2 split of all original tribes, while Gondol (the former Beauty tribe) had 3-2-1 in Brains, Beauty, and Brawn. The former never went to Tribal Council, so the only thing of note there was that this was where Michele and Cydney low-key aligned themselves, and where Michele’s most snarky confessionals come from, as her fellow “Beauty” Nick was more than a little condescending to her. The latter was a little more complicated, however. As one would expect, Aubry, Peter, and Joe of the Brains agreed to work with Scot of the Brawn to get rid of a Beauty, in this case the heretofore unmentioned Anna Khait. However, Scot bonded with Tai, the other Beauty on the tribe, and once he found out that Tai had the Beauty idol, informed him of Jason’s idol, forming a Power Trio despite being on opposite tribes. When Julia returned to Gondol in episode six, this led to Scot wanting to turn the tables on the Brains. This was done through manipulation on Julia and Tai’s part, whispering to Aubry about Peter’s planned insurrection for the blindside of Liz a few episodes back. As Aubry had never trusted Peter since then, and Joe was able to get out of Peter that he had made these plans, Aubry went along with the plan, but did so in a way that just plain wasn’t smart. She made her decision AT Tribal Council. Normally not a major misstep, the issue here is that Aubry initially voted for Julia, then crossed out her name and wrote Peter, such that Julia knew she had voted against her. Unsurprisingly, this would sully their relationship for the rest of the game, and put Aubry in hot water in the immediate future. For all that it’s painful to watch as an Aubry fan, it must be said that this is one of the more memorable moments of the season, and again, prevents us from having a solid majority that just steamrolls the entire game through.

Then, the merge, and to pile on the “Royally Screwed”, we get our second evacuation of the season. Neal has a bad enough infection to need to be sent away, taking with him the Brains’ idol, and thus giving the former Brawn and Beauty complete control. While this is probably the least emotional of the medical evacuations, it’s probably the one that hurts the most, because it makes the entire merge feel pointless. We’re setting up dynamics already established by previous episodes, ending with no actual vote out, but the elimination of the player with the most ability to shake things up. This should set up for a predictable post-merge. Thankfully, this is Kaoh Rong, where the majority never stays the majority for very long. In the next episode, Cydney gets paranoid about a men’s alliance, and so counters with an alliance of the remaining women+Joe, leading to a blindside of Nick. I can’t overstate how awesome this move is. While it feels semi-foreshadowed, as we had seen Cydney make side deals before, it still shakes things up in an unexpected way, and the cocky and arrogant are usurped by the smart and likable, which is always nice to see (take note “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”). A brilliant move that breathes new life into the post-merge.

Say it with me now: This is Kaoh Rong, so the majority doesn’t last. With Scot, Tai, and Jason on the outs, they start sabotaging the camp, confident in the protection of their super idol. Julia starts playing both sides, with Aubry being the main one to take notice. Unfortunately with Julia immune in the next episode, and wanting to flush the idols, a new target is needed. Debbie is the decided victim, due to being a bit too dictatorial in her conversations with the alliance. Again, a good shakeup, though not as good a move, as it give a threesome with inordinate power for their size even more power. Plus, there’s a super idol to flush. Granted, the alliance can’t possibly know about that (Scot and Jason had shown off the idols at Tribal Council, but did not mention the Super Idol twist), but still, objectively a bad move in that regard.

Our next reward challenge brings a twist, and I’m not just talking about the reward choice again. The extra-vote advantage is back from “Survivor Worlds Apart”, won in this case by Tai. Not a bad twist to bring back, but unneeded in this environment. What IS needed is another power dynamic shakeup. With seven people left, and no idols flushed, plus the Super Idol, Scot, Jason, Julia, and Tai seem set to control the rest of the game. Aubry, however, has other plans. Noting that Scot and Jason in particular come across as bullies, Aubry talks to Tai and gets him to side with herself, Cydney, Michele, and Joe. Thus, when Scot gets the majority of votes, Tai refuses to join up and make the Super Idol, leading to Scot’s elimination with the idol in his pocket. If you’re wondering why Cydney’s women’s alliance wasn’t the greatest move of the season, it’s only because this flip was. Not only were the twists of the season beaten, they were beaten purely though social manipulation, the core of what “Survivor” is about. Plus, it’s always nice to see the villains and bullies get so thoroughly beaten in such an ironic way.

The next two votes actually remain fairly predictable, in a rarity for the season. Michele does agree to vote out Julia, despite being allied with her, and Tai wastes his extra vote against Michele, but really not much happens until the final five. This comes in the form of our third medical evacuation, and probably the most pathetic yet. Joe, going on a reward, ate too much red meat, got his colon blocked, and needed to be evacuated. Rough to see, and yet another obstacle going into the finals.

Good manipulation of Cydney by Aubry puts Michele on the chopping block. When Michele wins immunity, and gets Cydney back on her side, Aubry uses her connection with Tai to get it to fire making, which she wins. An exciting start to the finale, and a good demonstration of why, despite being an excellent strategist, Cydney still had some flaws in her game. It was clear from their chatter that the jury HATED her, and wanted her to lose. In a shock to the audience, but not, for some reason, the players, we don’t have a final two, despite the numbers being right for one. I guess the show didn’t want to copy “Survivor Cagayan” too much. Instead, our final three challenge lets a player eliminate a juror of their choosing. They get immediately sequestered, and get no vote at Final Tribal Council. This twist gets a lot of hate, but on paper, I actually like it. It can be a good safety net, and requires some knowledge of both self and others to use properly. It’s never come back, probably because of its use this season, but I think it could actually have some potential. At the very least, it would cut down on the massive juries we’re having to deal with nowadays. That said, its use here does reek of both desperation and cruelty. It’s become obvious at this point that production wants Aubry to win, and it feels like they put in this twist just to ensure that she made finals. On top of that, Michele wins the advantage and uses it against Neal. A wise choice, given that Neal was a solid Aubry vote, and gave Michele a very vindictive speech upon leaving, but it felt cruel to Neal. I mean, the guy got to cast one vote the entire season, made the merge, and doesn’t even get to hang around that long? That feels wrong.

Not so much a “twist”, but it is worth noting that this season brought back closing speeches by our finalists, probably in an attempt to help them side with Aubry. It doesn’t work, as our real twist comes in the form of Michele winning 5-2. Why? Well, join me in the next section, as we’ll discuss it.

For now, though, let us summarize the overall twists of the season. Kaoh Rong is a rarity in the 30’s in and of that there’s very few twists from production, but a bunch implemented by the players. This, I think, is to the season’s advantage. It helps the season stand out, while still maintaining unpredictability, and feels very “real” to the audience, for want of a better term. Granted, pretty much every production twist at best had no impact, but with cast twists this good, less is more. Most every episode had something exciting in it, and good triumphed in the end, and so we get what is probably the strongest overall category of the season.

Score: 9 out of 10.

OVERALL

On the aesthetic side of things, the show really shot itself in the foot by leaning too heavily into the traditional architecture of Cambodia during the previous season. This one felt much more generic by comparison, and just looking at it, you couldn’t tell it from one of many other seasons. It’s easy to forget that it IS in Cambodia at times. I’ll give credit that we got nice popping colors (the buff designs are some of my all-time favorites), but the season just doesn’t seem to have a cohesive theme, and when it does try, it’s reused from another, better season.

But of course, we’re all here to talk about the big flaw in the season. Forgive me for repeating myself from the last blog, but Kaoh Rong is another season where the whole is not equal to the sum of its parts. Most every element in Kaoh Rong is at least ok, and the gameplay this season is some of the best we’ve ever had. There was a great story here, so why didn’t it equate to a great season? The answer, my friends, is in the edit.

As I said, there’s a great story to be told for this season, but it’s not the one the editors were interested in telling us. Rather than the story of Michele Fitzgerald, Social Queen, they wanted to emphasize Aubry Bracco, Robbed Goddess. As an Aubry fan, I’m not COMPLAINING, per se, about her being presented positively, but doing so when she doesn’t win sets the season up for failure. Look at it this way: Kaoh Rong had a very likable final four. Possibly the most likable final four the show has ever had. There was pretty much no outcome viewers would not find satisfying. Yet you managed to find one! I’m not sure that was possible! While it would be unfair to say Michele was INVISIBLE, Aubry was clearly the dominating force of the season. Again, not a dealbreaker on a good season, but you need to show why that dominating force lost. What was their fatal flaw that kept them from winning in the end? Weird though it is to say, the show needed to take a cue from “Survivor All-Stars”. On that season, we had another dominating force in Boston Rob who ended up losing. People can argue about whether or not Rob should have won, but even the most ardent Boston Rob fans can still see the flaws in his game that led to his loss. Even if you don’t agree with the outcome, you still understand why it happened.

This is not the case with Kaoh Rong. Aubry’s flaws, if shown at all, were very much downplayed, to the point where they weren’t talked about much beyond the episode they appeared in. Rather than a brilliant, but flawed, strategist, Aubry got presented as the greatest thing since sliced bread. Even her enemies were shown as liking her, with Scot and Jason complimenting her game at Tribal Council in what turned out to be Scot’s boot. From what we, the audience, saw, Aubry had most of the jury (save Julia and Debbie) wrapped around her finger, guaranteed to win pretty much no matter who she was up against. Michele? She played well, certainly, and was known to be liked, but the common consensus at the time was that Michele’s win was predicated on Aubry being voted out. Cydney and Tai had both had social gaffes, to the point where Michele was commonly seen as more likable than them, but Aubry? Again, apart from Julia and Debbie, we were never shown any dislike of Aubry by the jury, or even why the rest of the jury’s liking of Michele was greater than their liking of Aubry. Put simply, the editors tried to make their own story out of the season, instead of the actual story of the season, and it left us feeling wanting.

Case in point, what should have been a well-received season led to one of the biggest blowups in the fan community since the outcome of “Survivor Samoa”. If “Survivor” were still a cultural touchstone, there would have been rioting in the streets. The Aubry fans argued loudly for her win, leading Michele fans to fire back in anger. There was hatred and nastiness on both sides. It was a rough time to be a fan.

In the end, that is the tragedy and the failure of Kaoh Rong. It was never going to be perfect. No season is. But it could easily have been one of the greats. Instead, by trying to make the season that pleased themselves, production made a season that pleased no one else. The good elements do still shine through, but the damage is done by this point.

Score: 30 out of 40.

ABSTRACT

“Survivor Kaoh Rong” is definitely a necessary season if you’re planning to view future seasons. It has a lot of impact, both in returnees and twists, down the road. “Survivor Kaoh Rong” feels like a very back-to-basics season, with most of the best elements springing forth from the cast themselves, rather than production. That said, when production DOES stick its hand in the show, it always makes it worse, or at best has no impact. This season is definitely worth a watch, but be prepared to be disappointed by what could have been.

-Matt